Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - One final swing at all the Vikings draft scenarios (A Fans Only podcast)

Episode Date: April 28, 2022

Matthew Coller answers questions from fans, including why Sam Howell hype has disappeared since last year, whether Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can separate himself from Rick Spielman, who the Vikings would pick if they had the No. 1 selection and crazy draft moments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, another fans-only podcast here for you. Our last one before the NFL draft, so I hope you enjoy. I've got a lot of great questions that have come from Minnesota Vikings fans, so let's not waste any time. Let's get right to the questions, and of course, first, let's open up the diet, Dr. Pepper. Okay, how many of those will I go through on draft night was a question from somebody and man based on how long of a night it could be if they trade back could be quite a few all right let's get a sip here and get going all right first question comes from hannis canis i think oh nine um again always apologize if i'm

pronouncing your twitter name wrong or your name wrong. That's, you know, hard to figure out sometimes on the fly, but let's get to your question here. Hannes Canis, why did Sam Howell fall so much on all draft boards and Derek Stingley didn't or barely did? Howell was considered the best QB in this year's draft one year ago, one not so good season, and it made him drop to QB three or even QB four. And many experts don't see him going in the first round. Stingley, on the other hand, had one amazing season and didn't do much for the last two seasons. Of course he was injured, but when he played, he didn't rise up to what he showed in 2019. I admit this is not

based on my own observations, but on what I've heard and read from college and draft experts, truly trying to understand how both players in the end are evaluated so differently. Well, I think number one is that the sample size of Derek Stingley playing in 2020 and 2021 is extremely small. He was targeted 35 times between those two years. And when he played in 2019, it wasn't just good. It was transcendently good. Like this is the next Patrick Peterson, the next great corner in the NFL, the next Jalen Ramsey, like that's what he showed for a peak. And I think it was PFF that said in 2019, he was the most valuable defensive player in all of college football. So the high end of Derek Stingley that we saw

only for that one season, and then the injuries held them out was so high end. And if you guys remember when a hunt Palmer, the LSU football pre and post game host was on the show, he was talking about Stingley back when we thought Stingley was an option. And now it seems like it might not be, but he was talking about how Stingley as a freshman was better than Patrick Peterson, better than Tyron Matthew, better than Morris Claiborne, like stepped into college football as an 18 or 19 year old and was absolutely dominant his numbers for that season they look the same way I think that's different from what Sam Howell looked like at North Carolina

he had good numbers averaged over 10 yards a pass attempt but I think that even going into this college season there was questions about you know is Sam Howell really the number one quarterback is it a weak quarterback draft is there anybody that's going to go at the very top at number one or number two pick that kind of thing and so I think there were questions already about Sam Howell he's not the biggest guy he's not necessarily the most accurate his mobility is there and he's certainly tough breaks tackles and runs over people. But it's not like he has Malik Willis or Lamar Jackson type of mobility where he can dominate

at the NFL level with his quickness and speed. And I think that people really liked his arm as the potential top quarterback, but didn't look at him as, okay, this is Andrew Luck. This is Trevor Lawrence. This is Peyton Manning. That's how Derek Stingley was looked at in 2019. This guy can be the next great corner. That's not Sam Howell.

And Sam Howell played a whole season. Derek Stingley only played in bits and pieces, and it was coming off this injury, coming off that injury, and there wasn't enough really to put together for anybody for a sample size whereas with Sam Howell there was there was a big sample size of him playing very so-so football now I will tell you though my opinion and I'm sure that you know people have heard this already but I think Sam Howell because he's the youngest quarterback in the draft out of the projected first rounders and he's also the one with who threw the hardest football at the combine and you see that when you watch him play he has a

really remarkable arm on downfield throws you add the toughness element of it I think you should probably weigh the tape from the year before a little bit more and if you recall like Josh Allen that was one of his things. And I'm not saying he's the next Josh Allen, but Josh Allen had had a good, I think it was 2017 and then had a bunch of talent leave for Wyoming and his 2018 was much worse.

You know, when you watch that tape from Sam Howell, so I'm agreeing with your point here in general that maybe Howell should be higher thought of that. I mean, their offense was just a mess. And I know that again, I've mentioned it, but JTO Sullivan's breakdowns have been really, really good on the QB school on YouTube of all the quarterbacks. the high end and intermediate accuracy that should be maybe a little more interesting or get a little more buzz but it was a full season of not playing up to the expectations that people had for him that i think there was expected that he would take another step and go from someone who was really intriguing as a top quarterback to just blowing everybody away. And this is your clear cut number one. And when that didn't happen, you know, maybe there is, maybe it is too harsh. And maybe some of the technical stuff that is being judged with, you know, footwork in

the pocket, or did he make this read or that read correctly? Maybe that's stuff that can get turned around because he has the raw skill. So he's the most interesting one to me. He's the one that I think if the Vikings are going to draft a quarterback and it's not at number 12, that Howell would be the one maybe in the second round or the early second or the late first or something like that. He's the one that I've kind of circled, but you know, all of us can be wrong when it comes to the quarterbacks. I just think that you're, you're making a good point that it seems like the draft world has just tossed out everything that Sam Howell showed at his highest end. Um, and maybe that's a mistake and I guess we'll find out. All right. This comes from, I am super B4. Uh, I've got a fans-only question for you. What would your top three at least somewhat realistic scenarios be for draft day?

And how about worst two? So, okay, a top three and a worst two. I'm thinking in terms of general scenarios and not so much specific players. Well, I guess a top three, your best case scenario is well it's almost like we have to put the Malik Willis conversation in some totally different bucket in like our alternate universe call it our galaxy brain if he were to get to number 12 I don't think that happens but let's just say like best scenario that is realistic is Malik Willis in my mind falls to number 12 and then the Vikings take him.

However, I look at that as being very unrealistic for him dropping and also for the Vikings taking him, especially when there would be teams that would be behind the Vikings that would want to trade up. They need more draft capital, yada, yada, yada. You've heard it all by now. But so let's put that in a different category. Top three, non Malik Willis related. I think our, our three, I think our three players, I mean, you said it doesn't have to be specific players, but I think it kind of is. I think it's Derek Stingley, Jr. Jamison Williams or Kyle Hamilton,

that those are the three best scenarios for the Vikings is that one of those players falls and they pick them. And if none of those players fall, the top three A is that you trade back and get whatever it is that you want. A pass rusher, a corner, maybe it's Andrew Booth Jr. who might be more in the 20s or the late 20s twenties to be projected or Trent McDuffie maybe is not as high as some people think he is because of his arm length because of his height. And you end up trading back, getting more draft capital and taking a corner or taking a pass rusher that you want there or a wide receiver. There's too many good wide receivers to all go in that, you know, same spot as the Vikings or before

the Vikings. Chris Alave, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens is a really interesting one to me. There's lots of guys here. There's even guys that I haven't talked a whole lot about that have first and second round grades that the Vikings could potentially go for if they decided to trade back. So I guess those would be my top three is just Stingley, Williams, Hamilton, trade back. So it's three and three A. The worst two, I think that, I mean, the worst one is that all those guys are gone

and nobody wants to trade up. So let's say that Malik Willis is gone and there's nothing to trade up for. And everybody knows the Vikings wants to trade back, which reduces your leverage and you can't really make it work. And you just pick it 12 just to pick a 12 and George care. Laughed this, I think is a guy who I don't understand why he's fallen on everybody's draft boards. He was thought of very highly and then suddenly wasn't. But let's say you end up with him.

I mean we can all look at that draft pick and go. Oh okay. That's a good pick. You got a rusher. You're going to need that for sure. But I think among scenarios. In a draft that's almost hard to completely botch. For Kweisi Adafo Mensah.

Just getting a guy. That maybe you could have gotten later, but no one would trade with you is probably one of the worst scenarios aside from just, you know, completely shocking us and drafting, you know, a running back, but you said somewhat realistic. So keeping it within reality, the other one would be that say, for example, the Malik Willis thing does happen and they pass and he's taken by the Houston Texans. And we all laugh and say, ah, Texans, you don't know what you're doing. And then he becomes great like that.

That is the worst. That is the absolute worst scenario is that they pass on a quarterback who becomes great. And nobody except for Willis is projected to be that. But I think the NFL has taught us many times that you never really know. And if they pass on any of the quarterbacks that turn out to be great, that is kind of your worst case scenario. Um, otherwise it's, it's pretty hard to mess up in this situation because even if they were to take a Garrett Wilson at number 12, it might seem like that's a little high or a Chris Alave or even I mentioned George Karlaftis, but whatever other pass rusher they might like. If that happens, it's hard to say that's bad because they need so many things. Um, even the one, you know, the two galaxy brain ones that

I thought of were, uh, you know, maybe you see Ikea Kwan who dropped because of his height and you draft him as a guard. Like, is that a worst case scenario? I don't know. Cause a really good guard is something that they haven't had in a very long time. So the worst case scenarios here, I think are harder to come up with than the best case scenarios. All right. This one comes from Peter Phillip. Oh, eight. Could Kwesi Adafo-Mentz's lack of draft experience be a boon this year as he may not overthink things in the same way as Rick Spielman used to love the podcast. My daily dose of Vikings chat here in England. Keep up the good work, mate. You as well, sir. And thank you for listening. I've also got a question later from someone in Australia. So I really appreciate you folks that listen from around the world. That makes me feel really good. And sometimes I look at the analytics of the podcast and where downloads are coming from. And I wonder like, who's the guy in England who loves the Vikings and is listening to the show. So it's you, Peter Phillip. Um, yeah,

you know, lack of experience. I don't know. I don't know that Rick Spielman overthought things or rather that the criticism of Rick Spielman was that he kind of would make a decision and it was happening regardless of how other people felt about it, or if other people tried to talk him out of it. For example, that Spielman kind of get his mindset on something. And Courtney Cronin told the story on the show a while back about the Wyatt Davis pick and how Spielman wanted Wyatt Davis. And there were other people saying, I don't know if that's a good idea. And he decided to go for it anyway, and maybe he'll be justified long term. But so far, that pick has not really worked out. And that was, I think, a pretty common criticism of Rick Spielman is that, well, someone has

to be the guy who pushes the final button and makes the final decision. Also, ignoring what people are telling you might not be the best way to go about it. So, you know, I think what Kwesi Adafo-Mensah has to really balance here is sometimes he's going to have to believe in himself because he can collaborate all he wants, but he's the one in charge. And he was trying to kind of talk about, well, you know, all these draft picks are our draft picks. Like that's great, but it's your front office. You run it, you own it. And I think that what you would say is that you trust Kwesi Adafo Mensah more than Rick Spielman to push that button because you know

how well read Kwesi Adafo Mensah is and how up to date the man is, right? Like the chart of that age and athleticism that showed the Vikings at the bottom drafting older players who are not as athletic sort of showed you that you can fall behind really fast in this game. I think Rick Spielman is probably a tremendous evaluator of talent, especially at certain positions, but you could fall behind quick. It's just like if you're an offensive or defensive coach, and if you take a year or two off or you're not on the cutting edge of stuff, you become sort of what, like Mike McCarthy or something in Green Bay where he just fell behind. And that can happen to GMs too.

And I think that what they've done with Adolfo Mensah is, yes, they're taking the advice of smart people in the front office, but they're also putting in charge somebody and you would kind of nudge him and say, Hey, believe in yourself, man. Like believe in the fact that you are better with the data and the predictability of this draft than Rick Spielman is. And I think he's got a better chance. So I don't know if it's necessarily experience versus inexperience as it is. This guy has read every study and done it himself and knows the best

possible ways to give himself a great chance to draft. Well, that doesn't mean it'll be perfect in the first year, but long-term. And so I guess I would, I would leave it there. Uh, this comes from at average Vikes fan fans only question to keep your file full. Oh, sir. It is. Uh, and it's been awesome to get so many great questions from people. Uh, would you rather have the best edge rushing duo or the best wide receiving duo in the league? I've debated this and can't decide after this off season's wide receiver value spike. Hmm. That's a good question because the Vikings, when they were great, had an argument for both, right?on griffin daniel hunter and then adam thielen stefan diggs adam thielen justin jefferson right but you know digs when they were really good hmm this one's going to require a sip

of diet dr pepper to think about i'm gonna say receiver And I think that people would have predicted I would say receiver, but I do think that if there are ways to manage against just edge rushing as an offense, but if you were to give me the choice between a complete pass rush, and I mean the type that the Vikings had in 2017, where Brian Robison is coming in on third downs and rushing from all over different places and you have griffin at his peak hunter playing incredibly well that year you've got tom johnson rushing you have linval joseph who actually put up great pass rushing and pressure numbers that year considering he's 340 pounds uh he was pushing people back into the quarterback creating pressures i think he had five sacks that season. And then Anthony Barr as the additional pass rusher coming from wherever, whether it was

the double A gap or rushing from the outside or delay blitzes, things like that. I mean, if you're giving me that over a receiving duo, I might say yes, but it's got to be the complete unit. Right now, the Vikings have Zedaria Smith and Daniil Hunter, which is a great duo, but Harrison Phillips and Delvin Tomlinson are not creating any pressure by themselves. And the whole, well, they push the pocket. Yeah, but you got to get pressures and you got to get sacks too. And that's what they had in 2017. And then in 2018 too with sheldon richardson i mean you saw how effective that could be when you have both inside and out when you have just the outside i think it's good but i i don't think it's quite as valuable as having two receivers

where anytime they take away receiver one you've got receiver two but the other part of it is what about three i mean it's the same sort of it is what about three? I mean, it's the same sort of thing. Like what about three is probably the most effective that you could come up with is just really rare when a team has three great wide receivers. And that's what I've been trying for years to push this team to do. Uh, as you could tell, um, they, they have not listened or Rick Spielman didn't listen. Maybe quasiweisi does, but that's what I've thought for many years. And then when Tampa Bay gets Tom Brady, what do they do? They add more wide receivers.

They drafted Tyler Johnson. They brought in Antonio Brown. They brought back Gronk, even though they already had a decent tight end at the time. More and more weapons is probably my answer because you can manufacture pass rush. You cannot manufacture wide open wide receivers in one-on-one coverage, but I think that's a really good question. And having a complete pass rush is I think one of the most valuable things in all of football. And we give Matt Stafford the credit for the Rams winning the Superbowl, but Vaughn Miller, Leonard Floyd,

Aaron Donald, like they were just loading up on people who could rush the passer. I mean, the answer is probably both. But complete pass rush is, I think, an unstoppable force and kind of always has been in football. See, you know, purple people eaters even way back in the day. That unstoppable force pass rush is going to get you to the super bowl because playoff football is usually great quarterbacks and there's only one way to stop great quarterbacks and that's pressure so good question all right this comes from het hechner scott sorry scott if the vikings had a uh had the first pick i would really want cave onvon Thibodeau.

He sounds awesome in interviews and is a total freak tactician on the field. So I pose that to you. If the Vikings had the number one pick this year, who would you take? Okay, how annoying do you want me to be here? Malik Willis. I'm sorry. I'm sorry, quarterback. I'd probably just go quarterback even though no one thinks the guy is going to be the top or should be the top player or that he's the top talent. However, I agree with you. I would

probably go cave on Thibodeau. Aiden Hutchinson seems like a pretty safe bet though. All the projections I've seen from him. I mean, you're talking about a guy who still scored like a 98 percentile on relative athletic score. there's almost this because it's a white guy it's like oh he kind of reminds me of this high motor pass rusher i'm like okay man he's a freak athlete and i you know i think that um having that superstar edge rusher is really valuable and having somebody who like cave on Thibodeau. He has the potential to be great as an outside linebacker type. Cause he's a little bit on the lighter side than maybe Aiden Hutchinson. So if it wasn't the quarterback as always, just put that in a separate category. But you know, I think that there's almost an argument

too. And it just comes down to this whole positional value thing and, and edge rusher and wide receiver are so close when it comes to this, when it comes to the positional value and the surplus value that you get to have one of these players on a rookie contract. But maybe I'm overvaluing Jamis William, Jamison Williams, because he's going to go seven instead of one. But that type of wide receiver, some people have started calling him like, is he like Percy Harvin? Is he like Tyreek Hill? And you know, you never know. Maybe that's just draft hype. But when you watch him, you can see it. Even if he's Jalen Waddle, like how valuable with a good quarterback would Jalen Waddle be? So there's,

yeah, I think there's a really good conversation there for me. If you're a team that does not have a long-term quarterback option, you have to just draft a quarterback. It's just that these teams at the top, they often are so bad that especially in this case, they're so bad. These teams, the jets, the giants, the lions that they need players. players first the Vikings have a lot of players and if they continue to add to that around a quarterback and then create the quarterback contract surplus you know then you've got a pretty good situation but I would personally take Thibodeau over Hutchinson just by a little bit of just a little tiny bit and I wouldn't worry too much about the character and

stuff like that that's something that you only really know when the guy is in an nfl building sometimes you could spot it the way he plays if there's a lack of drive there but i didn't see that from thibodeau or if he is a jerk which i have not seen from him like baker mayfield who's shocked anybody baker mayfield was a jerk in college he had a dwi arrest he did he taunted the other teams he said stupid things he tweeted stupid things like shocker the guys still like that i haven't seen any of that from cave on tibideau so i've always wondered if it's people trying to get him to drop in the draft. And I'm not sure it's going to work. I think he probably goes top three or four. This one comes from at Eric Vikes fan 28 for the fans only pod.

Do you think if Kirk Cousins leads the team to eight or nine wins again this season, that that would be enough for KOC and Kweisi to see that a change is necessary? Or do you believe that they will bite the bait into believing that they are just a few pieces away with Kirk? Well, you know, I think that signing him to the shortest extension that they could sort of tells you that there may be dubious about the idea that there's way more there um that and even when kevin o'connell has talked in public he's sort of talked about got to get the most out of him we know that there's more there on offense i asked quesia daflamenza that straight up like do you guys think there's

more there to do with kirk cousins and, yes. So they've clearly identified some things that they think they can get more out of Kirk Cousins, but even if they do, and the offense has worse luck with injuries or the defense doesn't improve and is very similar, or there's just more field goals missed because last year, actually the kicking was pretty good overall. Like they could very well end up with eight or nine wins. And then at that point, you probably always plan to draft a quarterback next year anyway. Like with the extension, that's just how it looks. Extend them out one year, draft the quarterback, plan to play that guy in 2024, move forward after that, because that's when a lot of players look like their contracts for all intents

and purposes come to an end anyway i think the only scenario that changes this is if you win like 12 and it's just absolutely fantastic the connection between kevin o'connell and kirk cousins is like we never dreamed before and all of a sudden he's just high flying and it's this matt ryan uh type of 2016 season where kirk looks like an mvp and then wow okay now you can't change your quarterback which by the way i just want to say if that happens then we'll all change our minds about kirk cousins and mike zimmer and what it all meant it's amazing how with new information you're allowed to change your mind but we haven't gotten any new information on this situation so we have to project that it's going to be similar to what it was maybe with some slight upgrades and i think if that means nine wins or that means 10 wins

you add the age the price tag that means that the natural next step is to draft a quarterback so i think that they already live in reality about this if they had signed cousins to a five-year extension i would have said oh wow i don't know what you guys were looking at there uh with his future but they didn't they signed him to a one-year deal so i think it would have to be a very very different result to kind of change where this train is going and that's assuming that they don't draft a quarterback this year, which, you know, if we're putting money on it, I would say that they will not. Okay, this one comes from DER underscore general.

As how realistic do you see the trade calculator in the PFF mock draft simulator? Feels like they're almost always too good to accumulate multiple top 50 and top 100 picks by trading down just a few spots in the first two rounds and maybe adding a sixth or a seventh. Yeah. I, I tend to agree with you. Uh, I think I was able to trade Kirk cousins for the Seahawks first round pick. Like was the first thing I did when they added players like just let's see if uh you know they could trade Kirk on draft day and you know it was way too easy to do but you know there are there is also what they did last year they I can't remember the exact

numbers but I think that wasn't it a trade from the middle of the first and they picked up two third rounders? Was that what it was from the New York Jets? And if you were to do that in this year's draft, I know that did not work out swimmingly for last year, but this year's draft, I think there's maybe more talent because so many players did not enter the draft last year. It was one of the smallest classes that they've had in a long time. So maybe there's more value there but yeah i see some of you hacking the mock draft simulator and making a bunch of trades where the vikings just get

everything they want and they've got too late first round picks and a second and a third and all they did was trade number 12 yeah i think that it's imperfect i think that if you go into your mock draft simulation with the idea that you're only going to accept a trade that seems realistic for like what the other team would do then you can use it properly but i do think that is it's easier said than done and also a mock draft simulator is only plugged in to use certain value numbers on these picks but not leverage not circumstance not need and that's the biggest thing is okay the vikings want to trade back well the simulator is going to plug in well that number 12 pick is worth x and here's how you get to it is you trade number 28 and number whatever 40 something what you know what i mean? But if the teams behind the Vikings looking to move up, don't have anything that they

need to move up for, then, you know, you can't really make that move. And it is kind of mind blowing to think that the New York Jets moved up last year for a guard. Did that really happen? Elijah Vera Tucker was a good prospect. And, you know, if the Vikings had taken him, I think everyone would have been happy. But like, did that really happen? That's amazing.

This is just an additional question from D.R. General says as a bonus question, if the Vikings got to play an international game in London or even in Germany, which he's listening from another international. So this is our fans only international, I guess. Would you travel there to cover the game and the whole experience? To be fair, I have to tell you, we don't have much diet, Dr. Pepper. Well, I could tell you the country that I won't be moving to then if it doesn't have diet, Dr. Pepper, and that is Germany. Ah, yeah, no, that's right. That's right. After, after another sip, I will not be moving there if they don't have that. But, uh, yeah, I, that's right. That's right. After, after another sip, I will not be moving there if

they don't have that. But, uh, yeah, I would consider it. Um, they're supposed to maybe play in London this year. There was a report that they could, I would say I'd consider it. I don't know though. It's kind of a big, kind of a big trip. Um, I haven't gone to the past. They've played twice overseas, right? Twice. And I have not gone, or maybe it's just once 2017. Yeah. 2017. Uh, I didn't go to that one. I'm not sure. I guess I would have to consider sort of the pluses and minuses like for the content and whether it would be worth it. Um, it would be fun though. I try to really be, let me just put on my quasi hat and say intentional about the road games that I decide to

cover. So, you know, I try to cover half of them and you know, it's going to be green Bay. It's going to be Chicago, but what other games are important? What other games do I feel like I should really be there for? Uh, and you know, London would be fun though. All right. This comes from at, let's see, J Van Gelder. I gave it a shot. As a Madden GM, would you rather take Justin Jefferson in the first round with three or four years of massive stats and then want to leave, in parentheses, not saying that he does, or have undrafted Adam Thielen work his way onto your team and be very good for six plus years?

Justin Jefferson. Yeah. I mean, Adam Thielen has been a great receiver, but he was only a real top notch, like elite receiver for two years, 2017, 2018. And if you're giving me three to four years to work with the best receiver in the league, like I think Jefferson has an argument right there with Devante Adams, right there with Stefan Diggs, whoever else name you want to put up against him. He's been right there. He has more yards in the last two years than any receiver in the NFL. I will take the guy who even for a three or four year stint is going to give me the best

chance to absolutely dominate on offense because the reality is, you know, I was going through this the other day. And so I've, I've, I've kind of, I'm always trying to look for new ways to think about quarterbacks teams, what wins things like that. And I was going through John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Peyton Manning and where their offenses finished each year. Now they didn't finish every single year in the top two or three, but it was close. And that's, that's the goal. Like that's how you get to a Superbowl.

That's how you win a Superbowl. That's how you end up in AFC or NFC championships is having offenses that are of the elite of the elite year after year. Jefferson just gives you a better chance than a good receiver and Adam Thielen. And he's had a really good career and you know, I'm not taking anything away from him, but Jefferson has a case as the best wide receiver in the NFL. The give, give me that guy. And he's going to give you a chance on offense. And he's also going to set a floor for your offense that even if you have injuries and you have struggles, you're going to have him. So what you need to do, which the Vikings have not necessarily done,

is take full advantage of that. You can't miss the playoffs twice. But, you know, here's another point of it. Okay, he wants to leave. But what did the teams get back for guys that wanted to leave? They got first-round picks and second-round picks and huge cap space and things like that right like they got a lot in return for trading away their elite wide receiver so i think from that perspective i would

rather take three four years of the elite wide receiver all right this comes from at vikes fan 1930 who has long been a fan of the show and a longtime subscriber to the newsletter. So I appreciate you, man. Let me take another Dr. P set. We've gotten intense here. Okay, pie chart for Thursday. If Derek Stingley Jr. is gone by pick 12, do the Vikings, one, take best player available, two, draft offense, three draft defense or four trade back for a ransom. Well, it depends on whether they get a ransom. I suppose I'm just not super confident

in that outcome, but let's see. Okay. This is a good pie chart here. Although a BPA and offense defense, um, kind of, you know, overlap each other. But I would say that if Stingley is gone, I will put draft defense and well, see, yeah, this is the hard part is like if, if it's Kyle Hamilton, like that goes into my draft defense, but that's also best player available. So I guess what I'll do is go best player available that to say that they don't have a specific target, but there's a number of players that they would want at that position where they wouldn't trade down and that would qualify as BPA.

So I guess I'll go 60% BPA. I think that that's what they will do. And then, you know, maybe 15% each on trade or draft offense, draft defense. And then what do we got since 60, maybe 10% on trade back for a ransom. Um, but you know, that depends because is Jamison Williams there? Like I have more questions. Is Kyle Hamilton, who is the best player available? Because if it's, if the best player available is one of those guys, that's a top 10 prospect, that's who they're taking. Uh, but if so your pie charts a little tricky for me, but, um, you know, I think that if the BPA is not one of those guys and it's Trent McDuffie or Chris Alave or whatever, then trade back for a ransom goes way up. So I guess it really depends on what happens before that. And as far as, you know, draft offense or draft defense, really hard to say whether they would be locked in on one or the other because you can make a really good case for it. Like defense is leading by a hundred miles in the mock drafts of who is like picking the, which position for the Vikings. But I think that there's been a little more steam for

the wide receiver thing going into, uh, the draft. So defense is a little more of the favorite best player available though. I think is probably the way they end up going. All right. Uh, another subscriber to the newsletter and a long time listener at head coach 21. What's the craziest draft war room story you ever heard? Um, that's a good one. Gosh. I mean, all right. Okay. I've got this one. I think I've told this before on the show, but I mean, this is, this is nuts. So the Buffalo bills one year were ready to draft and they had their board all set and everything else all good to go. And their owner came down and demanded that they draft Willis McGahee. And I know that I know I brought this up before cause it's so nuts,

but like, think about that. If you're on that team and you're in the front office, you're the GM, you're the director of player personnel, and you're just sitting there going like, okay, we're ready. We got this, you know, pass rusher or quarterback or whatever. And the owner just says, no, I want the running back. You're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, buddy, buddy, buddy. No, no, he's heard. And he's not that good. And like, he's a running back. What are you talking about? No, take them. And, uh, they did. And he worked out to be an okay player. But I think that happens more often than you think that there was the story. How about when, uh, the Johnny Manziel one where Johnny Manziel texted the owner of the Browns and said, come get me. And he did. And Johnny Manziel was in a complete free fall. And then Jimmy Haslam

made his team draft Johnny Manziel. I mean, that is absolutely nuts. Um, there was a story that somebody told me about, uh, you know, one of the players sort of waiting in the green room and somebody kept prank calling the green room and saying it was GMs and things like that. Can't remember what year that was from, maybe 2013. So there's, yeah, I mean, that's what I was saying about the unpredictable nature of draft night is you just do not know. I also had heard a story about how Cleland Farrell got picked at number four, that maybe it was John Gruden or Mayock. One of them just loved the interview with the guy and said, let's just take him.

I don't care what anybody else thinks. And, you know, there's a lot of value in caring what other people think. Like there's, you know, you run into people in your life. You should always be worried when someone says, you know, I don't care what anybody else thinks. First of all, yes, you do. But a lot of times you really should. You really should. You should, you know, yes, you do. But a lot of times you really should, you really should, you should,

you know, the consensus draft board, like you should care that no one thinks your guy is a top five overall pick because you know, there, there's some wisdom in the masses here. Uh, all right, let's move on here. Trying to blast through a few more and get to most of the ones that I got here. Let's see. Uh, John Fryman at John Fryman, Matthew, give us a player or two that you wanted the Vikings to draft and they did not. What have said players done and what player the Vikings drafted? Were you wrong about, um, let's see, uh, what didn't you like about the pick at the time of the selection? So yeah, the, the hindsight thing is one of my favorites to talk about during draft season,

because sometimes we're right. And sometimes we are hilariously wrong. And you know, the players that I wanted the Vikings to draft, you could probably guess. I mean, it's the guys that you would think that I would say that I would, that I was right about Lamar Jackson, um, really thought that it was a good idea to draft Lamar Jackson because Kirk cousins was on a short-term contract. And that contract, if you remember, it was a three-year deal, but it was really set up as more of a two-year deal. And then the third year, I think it was kind of set up for, they could trade it. Well, maybe he had no trade clause. forget how it looked but it was

really set up to renegotiate the deal after two so my thought was well this guy is far away but has this incredible physical skill like why not take him and then two years from now that could be your franchise quarterback if he works out and if kirk cousins doesn't work out but there was never a plan for if kirk cousins didn't work out. But there was never a plan for if Kirk Cousins didn't work out. And so, you know, and maybe they have the good 2019 season and they never look at it that way anyway. I don't know. Like many things would be different.

There are some people who have said when this gets brought up, well, you know, Lamar Jackson wouldn't have worked out with Mike Zimmer. No, I think when a guy's an MVP, he would have worked out with almost anybody. Mac Jones last year was certainly one uh we're one year into that I don't know how good Mac Jones will be long term but Mac Jones was a better athlete than people gave him credit for by the numbers and he has pocket presence leadership ability accuracy he had a strong enough arm to get the ball downfield. Like, you know, not an elite arm, not elite talent, but I think we've shown that if you can even just be a better version of Jared Goff, then you can get places if you're cheap. So that's another one that

I thought they should have picked Antoine Winfield jr. I mean, come on. Everybody thought that right? Like there was, I know i didn't meet anybody during draft season and i don't even mean for minnesota i mean anywhere who thought it was a bad idea to draft antoine winfield jr i remember talking with ryan clark of espn former safety and he was like man this guy has just got something different tyron matthew was tweeting about him i mean that one was kind of right there on the doorstep and they passed on that one um when they drafted irv smith jr i thought it was a good pick but they didn't draft aj brown which i thought would have been a better pick and the same thing went for garrett bradbury i mean you know

i was looking at positional value at that point and thinking about like debo samuel's name was brought up then i didn't know what he would become there are other guys that got drafted that it didn't work out Andre Dillard was another one that I think uh I was sort of saying maybe they should draft Andre Dillard here and they decided you know not to and he hasn't worked out at all so not every guy that I've thought they should draft has just blown up and become a superstar. Those are just some that come to mind. What players were, was I wrong about with the Vikings? Um, probably Brian O'Neill would be at the beginning. And I, and that's one where, you know, by the, by the first game he played, it was like, okay, that, that guy's good. That guy's good. I mean, I remember talking to him after he was a

little bit shell shocked and completely exhausted after that Packers game. But I remember talking to him after he was a little bit shell-shocked and completely exhausted after that Packers game but I remember having a good kind of one-on-one chat with him in the locker room in Lambeau and where he was just talking about like how kind of wild it was to be thrown in the fire and how well he came through and I remember him getting praised for Mike Zimmer which you can criticize Mike Zimmer for a lot of things, but his player evaluations are usually pretty good. And so, um, you know, I think that O'Neill came in weighing like two 80 and I didn't expect him to play within his first year and maybe not even his second year because he weighed so little, but he put on the weight and he's a lot tougher than I think anybody knew he was, which you don't really know until they play. So he was probably one. Um, I remember that whole draft. We kind of questioned like, why are they going with Mike Hughes here? Why aren't

they going with Will Hernandez, that kind of thing. So, um, yeah, that's definitely one that I was wrong about and why Davis so far would be another one. Um, yeah, I think that those probably were the couple. I thought that Laquan Treadwell would be a good player. I mean, I wasn't covering the team yet when he got drafted, but when I showed up to cover the Vikings, you know, he was kind of fighting for a spot as a first round pick. And my first impression of him from having seen him in college was, gosh, you know, this guy was so good, like so strong and powerful. And, uh, you know, that did not exactly work out.

That could not create separation, couldn't run routes. You know, those are kind of a problem in football. So this one comes from Austrian Vikings fan. Awesome. Did I copy that one right? Is it Austria? That's cool. Shout out to Thomas Vanik, I guess.

Because I was like, did I screw this up as Australian because I know there are some people from Australia who listen to the show but shout out to Austria a very different country if you guys didn't know let's see what would have to happen on the first day of the draft to the Vikings to ruin my day that's a good one well number one would be if I ran out of diet dr pepper or if they didn't have the taco bar i mean they're supposed to have a taco bar for draft night at tco performance center and if they didn't that would probably ruin my day because you need fuel man it's a long draft um no look i nothing is going to ruin my day that the Minnesota Vikings do okay you know sometimes

people will tweet me like oh you know you're mad that they did this or you don't you hate Kirk because whatever and it's like look this is a this is a career so you know I go to work and then I have a life and it's different than being a fan of a team where you're putting a lot of your heart and soul into the success or failure. What I'm putting the heart and soul into is doing the best shows, the best articles, the best reactions that I possibly can. I'm like playing for you. And so just like a player goes out on the field playing for you when you're a fan, I feel the same way about covering the draft. So there are many times where I'm disappointed for you,

or I could see where your fans would be infuriated over something that happened and something they did. And I try to capture that in my writing and commentary. And when I rip into them because they've done something wrong, or when I praise them because they've done something wrong or when i praise them because they've done something right like that's not those aren't emotional things those are just logical doing the job trying to do the best i can to put it in a way that i hope that you relate to or that you want to argue with me about or that is interesting to you or changes

your perspective on something like so that what i mean by that is if they draft a running back that's not going to ruin my day i'm gonna certainly just be totally bewildered and baffled because i have you know tried to put in a lot of you know heart or passion into what i do here and i think that's why people like it is because I get worked up. Um, or the singing also might be the singing, but it's not going to ruin my day. Like no, no game that they've lost, no draft pick they've made. No Mike Zimmer comments to me in any press conference, though he, I thought was very fair with my questions over the years. Like none of those aren't ruining my day. Those are things that I'm doing you know professionally

um but I think that there are scenarios that would ruin Vikings fans days yeah I definitely do I think passing on Malik Willis would ruin Vikings fans days drafting anything outside of a corner wide receiver or pass rusher would probably be it and i'll give you a low-key one that would be really stunning but i guess could happen which would be trading out of the first round all the way out you start at number 12 and you trade back and you trade back again and then the vikings own four second round picks or something or three second round picks and don't get to select at all in the first round maybe that would ruin everybody's day. The big draft party at U.S. Bank Stadium, everyone's waiting, and the Vikings have traded back again to the 34th pick.

Like, that would make everybody upset. But, you know, also, I would say this, too. Don't let something that happens on draft day ruin your day because fans booed Donovan McNabb's pick. The Vikings looked like the biggest disaster ever when they let the clock run out on them with Kevin Williams. And then he's Kevin Williams. He's great.

You know, there's been lots of draft picks that at the time everybody thought were insane or didn't make any sense. I mean, people in Kansas City were like trading up that far for patrick mahomes giving up a next year's first what are you doing you know so there's a lot of things we question on draft night that later on work out totally differently there's a lot of draft picks that we think were a tremendous idea that end up you know just not working out so don't let the draft ruin your day have a good day although the weather might ruin your day it's like 90 rain i think uh okay this comes from derrick moran or moran uh let's see based on value it seems the pick at 12 should either be wide receiver corner defensive end as we don't need

a quarterback or offensive tackle it seems that wide receiver uh are the earlier impact players giving higher value over their rookie deal, correct? Do we have room for another three down defensive lineman with who we already have and decent corners to be had on the cheap? So it seems like players are about equal. Then the draft pick would have to be a wide receiver or defensive end, right? Okay.

Sorry. There's a lot of words there. A lot of questions there a lot of questions there actually um so let's start with wide receivers can produce right away yeah um historically they don't do what they've done recently but yes right away seems to be the way of the wide receiver going forward because these guys come out so well trained out of college they work with former NFL receivers they go to camps they go seven on seven like you know there's there's so much more work that goes into it than just playing college football for a lot of the top receivers so yes versus a corner

yes and versus an edge rusher the answer is probably yes unless you're talking about a Bosa for example but usually it might take the first year you get five, six sacks out of that guy. And then if he's a star the next year, it's like 12 decent cornerbacks can be had on the cheap. And this is what I wonder about. San Francisco did this, but Cleveland didn't. So maybe there's no way to kind of, you know, pick through this. But San Francisco and Kansas City have always been teams that felt you could just get guys uh as far as corners like there's always free agents there and that has kind of bared out recently but the risk is bashad breeland everybody thought including me

bashad breeland was a pretty good signing oh this guy's got decent numbers if he's average it's an upgrade nope he was washed and you take that risk because usually in free agency if someone's average it's an upgrade nope he was washed and you take that risk because usually in free agency if someone's there later in free agency or is on the cheap then they're probably washed but i do think that you're right that wide receiver and defensive end they carry the biggest surplus value which i'm sorry i've mentioned this so many times but i think that it's a really great way of looking at it in terms of positional value that even if you draft an average one this is where the rubber hits the road for me if you draft an average defensive end or receiver that's really good like those guys are worth something and if the guy catches 50 passes and is just decent and has got a couple

of big plays in them that's so much better than bad and defensive end my gosh we have seen a lot of bad in recent years having an average one is so much better than bad um okay i'm going to try to buzz through a few more here this one from con tk421 another longtime supporter of the show let's see uh could the viking could you see the vikings trading up at the end of the first round to take a quarterback given the nature of kirk cousins contract it feels like that extra year on the rookie deal would be a necessity rather than taking a quarterback in the second or the third round well the reason that you don't take them in the second or third round is usually because if you don't have them assessed and evaluated as a first round talent probably not going to make it i mean just the

reality just probably not going to make it that's the kellen mond thing with last year people got really worked up about kellen mond why isn't he the backup you know he could be the next starting quarterback and such but you know when i go through the third round draft pick quarterbacks it's just really not worth it and even the second rounders outside of that one year where there was jimmy g and derrick carr it's usually not worth it either i can go through them for you if we get to even even go back to 2020 so there weren't any third round quarterbacks but in the fourth round jacob eason j James Morgan, remember those guys being talked about? Jake Fromm was in the fifth.

Third rounder, Will Greer from 2019. Third rounder, Mason Rudolph. Let's see. Davis Webb, CJ Bethard. Good backup, I guess. CJ Bethard, maybe not. Jacoby Brissett. Now there's a good backup.

Cody Kessler, Garrettson Sean Mannion I mean fourth rounders Logan Thomas Tom Savage like usually if the whole league passes over twice you don't want to do that in general um the Vikings don't pick super super early in the second so you probably don't want to wait if there's any QB needy teams that could be taking a quarterback there that is the scenario that I think is the most possible if they pick a quarterback. Yes, I think you've looked at that correctly, that someone's falling. The Detroit Lions say they take Kayvon Thibodeau number two, falling, falling, falling, or, you know, whoever, Aiden Hutchinson, I don't know.

And all right, so there's three quarterbacks that are left, and Detroit's about to pick 32 you jump in front of them and you take the quarterback you want you develop that quarterback the fifth year option is just not that big of a deal for me I mean yeah no it does help a little because it keeps the guy under team control but it also seems that players are really fighting back against that thing these days. And the best thing you could do with a quarterback is try to get five full seasons of cheap play. If you're going to extend them. And if you're not, then yeah, you can use that fifth year option and maybe it becomes a battle, but what you're really looking for is three years where you have a chance

to win by drafting a quarterback their first year you're not going to win the super bowl second third fourth can you win there and if they're close enough and they deserve an extension can you extend them to the point where they have a cheap cap hit for another year or two and that's that's a window i mean that's like a half a half a decade window where you have a shot so So does it matter a ton? Probably not. But Detroit being at 32 maybe makes that a point that if there's a Matt Corral or a Sam Howell that you like, you should probably trade up and take him. I know that this has been super epic, but I got two more questions.

Let's see. Let me scroll up here. This is from Rob DN1. We've talked about a lot of potential first round picks. Do you have a player position group? You think the Vikings will focus on in the second round? That kind of depends on the first. I mean, that's the, the hard thing about talking about it is if you take a receiver in the first, you're not taking one in the second, but, uh, you know, just for you, Rob, cause you're the man let's, man. Let's run a quick draft sim and let's talk

about it. Let's do this real quick. I'll fire it up and we'll get an answer to this question. Because I think, you know, if you're talking about taking, say, a pass rusher in the first, then, well, you know, corner receiver becomes interesting. All right. In this draft sim, Jamison Williams is there. We're taking him. Okay. Boom. Jamison Williams is taken. Now everybody's flying off the board and let's see who we've got available in the second round. So if they were to take a receiver, so here's some guys, uh, Leo Chanel is kind of interesting. Um, Gabe Henderson from the Vikings brought this guy up to me, kind of to my attention. And when you look at his athletic gifts, he's a linebacker from Wisconsin, really interesting player,

but pure edge rusher, Nick Benito from Oklahoma, maybe getting underrated. Drake Jackson is there. He's another edge rusher. There is a safety here listed on PFF's board. That's probably out of the question unless it's Kyle Hamilton. Got some offensive linemen here. Matt Corral is still on the board in the second round.

That would make things pretty interesting. Roger McCreary, pretty highly talked about about corner doesn't have quite the athleticism, but you know, a lot of options. Cam Britt Taylor is a corner that I really like out of Nebraska. Uh, you've got an offensive lineman, Dylan Parnum. If there's any Carson strong fans out there, then bless you. Uh, Logan Hall really intrigues me. Christian Watson also, but we've already taken a receiver. Logan Hall is a defensive, uh, interior rusher out of Houston. He's, he's kind of, he's kind of tall, kind of big. Excuse me. Sorry. It's the first sneeze that I've had on the, um, on the fans only. Uh, okay. So he's actually not quite

as tall, but he's two 83. So he's sort of a tweener in between rusher who had great stats this year. Uh, great pass rushing grade. So there's, yeah, I mean, I think that you kind of have to play that by year and there's going to be a lot of potential talent there in the second, which is why people love the idea of trading back is because of the possibility that there's, you know, a lot of talent. Okay. Last one. This is from baseball norm, baseball norm. If you're listening, you're my guy. I should send you something. If you're still listening after 56 minutes and you ask this question, if we see Kweisi Adafo Mensah in the draft, follow a similar draft style as trader Rick, are we to assume that he is a puppet for the Wilfs?

And if that's the case, why did we fire Rick again? What a question to end on. I don't know how we would figure that out. Let's just put ourselves in Rick Spielman's shoes and think like Rick and what he would do. So he would probably try to trade down out of 12 okay well that's something that makes a lot of sense for quesia dafl mensa to do let's say he didn't and he took a corner well it does make a lot of sense to take a corner but that is something that rick and zim would do right so if they took stingley jr or even if they really love trent mcduffie okay are

we gonna say oh it's rick it's rick no because they need a corner because they don't really have them uh if they took a wide receiver now that would be a left turn from what the vikings have normally done because they usually just fill needs and don't go for something that would be a quote luxury pick but you know you know, I think that if they trade down four times from their third round pick into the late fourth, then yes, we need to start going, okay, what is going on here? Why are you trading down from the third? But I mean, the Wilfs wouldn't be pulling those strings, right? Um, I don't know what draft pick makes Kweisi a puppet for the Wilfs. Like this is one where I,

you know, I think it's his draft. I think it's the front office's draft. I don't think that the Willis McGahee thing is happening or even has really happened. I've never heard that, that the Wilfs come down and make the pick. I mean, they're in the room, but I don't think that they do that. So yeah, I mean, I'm not sure how we would really figure that out. Um, based on this off season, it's been a very Spielman off season. And so if you're already unhappy with that, which, you know, is fair, then you might look at whatever draft thing they do and say, ah, that's Spielman that's Spielman. Um, but yeah, I think that the differences in the draft, like every team has their whole

organization working at it. And so it's really hard to get a huge gap in the draft. Like this team is way ahead of everybody else. I mean, I, I thought that the Ravens were the smartest team and then they picked like Patrick queen or something like, huh? What are you doing? And then they picked, I think a running back after that. What, why?

Uh, the guy who tore his ACL, I forget what his name was, but like, I think, a running back after that. What? Why? The guy who tore his ACL. I forget what his name was. But like, you know, even the most analytical front offices sometimes make bizarre moves. And sometimes even the Rick Spielman front office that drafted bad for years has a 2015. I think it's going to be really hard to take one draft. See, with Spielman, we had many drafts that we could analyze it will be very hard to take one draft that where they only have three picks in the first you know 155 and say this is what quasey was doing like we'll try i will do my best but you know it's gonna be hard to do

okay so we'll make it exactly an hour man again if you made it here then i so appreciate you and we've had honestly a lot of fun in this draft season they could start off a little slow but everybody's excited for it now and i'm glad we all made it together cannot wait we'll be out there at tco performance center taco bar diet dr peppers break it down pods will be released as far as i know i'm not going live anywhere um but pods will be released right after the pick as fast as I can based on when there's a press conference from Kweisi Adafo-Mensa and Kevin O'Connell. And then we'll do another one where we talk about,

you know, who's available left at sort of the end of the night, how the first round went. So look forward to two podcasts that are coming out on draft night or the next morning and written work, purpleinsider.com go check that out i i gave you everything i got we could collapse after this i'm gonna need a whole uh 12 pack after this of dr pepper because i gave you everything i could all the sweat i could

for our final uh fans only before the draft and we'll keep doing them and i'm sure your questions will be great going forward so thanks so much everybody for listening and we'll see you after the draft