Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - OTA update and PFF's Ian Hartitz projects the Vikings' star players for 2022

Episode Date: May 25, 2022

Matthew Coller pulls some comments from Kirk Cousins and Wes Phillips' press conferences and talks about what we saw at Vikings OTA practice, then Pro Football Focus fantasy guru Ian Hartitz joins to project Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith Jr. and Dalvin Cook for the 2022 season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here. We'll get to my conversation with Ian Harditz of Pro Football Focus in just a minute. But first, it was another OTA practice for the Vikings today. And I wanted to bring you a couple of things, a couple of clips from Kirk Cousins and from Wes Phillips that stuck out to me. But some other notes first. Once again, it was Chris Reed and Jesse Davis working at right guard which i'm guessing we're going to see for quite a while throughout the offseason uh harrison smith was not there he just became a father so he's missing otas cam bynum and lewis scene were out there

together with the first team and ed donatel said today that they like the idea of using three safeties because he said that you can match teams with speed so I guess I wonder if we'll see them in more of a dime type of situation at times to be able to use Cameron Bynum to get him on the field I had figured that maybe they would use two linebackers three safeties in situations where teams were trying to use big personnel as opposed to going with three linebackers but i also think now that maybe we'll just see eric kendricks out there in some spots with three safeties along with him instead of a second linebacker which compared to the mike zimmer era is going to look pretty weird i think um if that's the case and they're in a dime type of personnel setting,

which it just has not really happened for them during the Mike Zimmer era. Even when it was third down and long, you would still see Anthony Barr and Eric Hendricks out there, but Jordan Hicks maybe is going to have a more limited role than Anthony Barr had. So that's something we'll keep watching through camp, through preseason. Amir Smith-Marset didn't practice we didn't talk to Kevin O'Connell so not sure why but that might be something to keep an eye on uh special teams coordinator Matt Daniels said that there is a legit kicking competition so get excited everybody we've got right guards and kickers going at it and punters don't forget the punters. He particularly praised Gabe Berkich, who is the other kicker other than Greg Joseph. And if you were wondering, and I know you were, Greg Joseph hit five of six.

It was kind of windy out there. The only miss came from about 55 or 56 yards, and Berkich made all three. So it begins. Kicking competition. It's going already uh Sean Manning and Kellen Mond appeared to be splitting the QB2 reps that's something again that we should expect all throughout this period of time and then in training camp we'll see who they decide to give QB2 reps to maybe they'll go back and forth all the way through uh the preseason games and that'll be something we're watching on a daily basis.

All right, so let's get to a couple of the comments that popped out for me today. Kirk Cousins was asked about how similar his current offense is to offenses that he's had in the past, and he explained how things are kind of always evolving. There are elements that are the same same but it's amazing how much uh things you've evolved you know if looking back to like when i was with sean mcveigh in 2016 i mean sean's offense to the degree that that this would have similarities has gone a long ways over the last five years you know and there's been a lot of changes the league changes and there's been a lot of changes with that so um and i'm sure if you were to you know take a snapshot of any offense i've played in uh if you look back five years later there's always a lot that's changed because

that's just the nature of things that you have to keep up with the times so um there's a lot that's new there's foundational you know undertones that are similar. But I just learned it all as if it's new and just got to learn it as the 2022 Vikings offense. Kirk also talked about BC Johnson and Irv Smith Jr. getting those guys back from their injuries. They missed, both of them missed all of last season. And he talked about how excited he was heading into last year for them and how disappointing it was that they got hurt. Yeah, Olabisi and Irv are two guys that missed all last season that I was expecting big things from.

I remember in 2020 when Adam was out with COVID for two games, I believe, or one game against Carolina. And we really put Olabisi in the spot where Adam would normally be. And he just had a great game. He kept getting open. He was reliable. And I remember thinking that in year three, he was going to take a big step and really show up. And then unfortunately, tore his knee in one-on-ones over here in training camp. And so I've always had a high opinion of him. And I think that in year four now, I do expect him to have a very productive year and provide a great deal of depth for us. So I'm excited about him.

And then Irv, much the same way. I felt he was one of our most impactful players during training camp last year. And even in the preseason games that he played, I thought he made an impact and was making plays and putting good things on tape. And then he hurt his knee against the Chiefs, and that was the last we saw of him. So both those guys, I'm really excited about. I think it's year four for both of them. Expect big things. Okay, before we get to Ian Harditz,

Wetz Phillips went into tremendous detail about the differences and similarities between Justin Jefferson and Cooper Cup, and I just thought this is worth listening to. about the differences and similarities between Justin Jefferson and Cooper Cup. And I just thought this is worth listening to. So some interesting stuff here from the Vikings offensive coordinator. They're different players, but I think they're both very instinctive and both have a natural ability to separate. There's some guys that just have a natural way of always working edges on guys. You know, that's what we're looking for from the receiver group.

You know, you're never running straight down the middle of someone. You're always working an edge, just like a pass rusher is always working an edge on an offensive lineman. And some guys just have it a little more naturally, and I think they're similar in that aspect. They both can really play underneath themselves where they can, you know, what we say, double up a guy, run a choice route, make good decisions. So they have some football intelligence, some instincts. Now they're different as far as the types of balls that maybe are activated. Maybe you didn't see Cooper Cup catching 60-yard bombs quite as often as maybe Justin Jefferson, but you're seeing him a lot more underneath.

The thing that's exciting that is very similar to Cooper is they can play all the spots. So you have the ability to take them and move them where you want them and where you think you can get a good matchup, and then the ability to take them and move them where you want them and where you think you can get a good matchup and then the ability to win at all levels underneath intermediate and the deep balls over the top that's the top signal correct when a guy can move it draws that it forces the defense's hand is that correct and absolutely you know and You know, and even in a zone coverage without getting, like, technical, but, you know, they're going to line if they're in nickel defense, right?

They have an extra DB. They're going to line that nickel to the passing strength more often than not. And the last drive of the Super Bowl, if you watch, we had several plays where Cooper Cup was aligned over to the tight end side away from the passing strength. So if you're in a zone defense, then you've got a linebacker matching that guy. So just the ability to be able to move those guys when you want to and get them in the spots where they can be most effective is huge. Joining me on the show, a return guest from Pro Football Focus,

the fantasy guru, Ian Harditz. What is going on, Ian? How are you? Great, Dave. It's great. Matthew, appreciate you having me on again. We've talked several times now. Always out there enjoying the Vikings. I feel like every time we talk about them, it always just, any Vikings conversation comes back down to like if Kirk

Cousins can be the guy to get them over the hump. That's one of the things I love about fantasy football we can talk for smith adam dealing kj osborne alexander is he is alexander madison a value now that he's wearing number three loads of topics man yeah the number changes in the backfield obviously the biggest determining factor of what's going to happen hey he looks slimmer he legit looks slimmer man there might be something to it okay let's just start out there anyway, because you did that. I don't know that Alexander Madison is going to be a great choice for people to handcuff with Delvin Cook because of Kenny Wongwu. Kenny Wongwu, two kick returns for touchdown last year, and a guy who is lightning fast that I think they want to use more.

And Alexander Madison, I'm not sure if that's going to be the same fit that it was under Mike Zimmer. Well, that was the one interesting thing about Madison this year and cook is the fact that they're in this new offense. And there's a couple of players like this, you know, David Montgomery is another one where I think too often, we're just kind of looking at what they did last year.

And it's like, this is a brand new offense potentially. So Matthew, I'd love to hear like, what about Dalvin cook there? Because he's been one of these running backs where, yeah, if he's healthy, which I know he missed a couple games, but you can always just sign him up for 300-plus touches pretty much each and every year. So, very interesting about Madison's potential handcuff situation.

But for me, I was looking at him like a potential Tony Pollard, more so. We know he has the great handcuff upside. I was hoping for maybe just a little bit of standalone value, though. Do you see them rotating the running backs with a little more urgency? I think that that would be wise. I don't know that they'll do that because I mean, everybody can have some sort of plan like, Oh yeah, we'll take Delvin cook off the field.

This used to happen with Mike Zimmer every year. He would be like, yeah, we're, we're going to try to lighten the load a little bit on Delvin. Then they would start the season one and two and be like, no, no, no, no. Delvin's getting 30 carries. Like we're not're going to try to lighten the load a little bit on delvin then they would start the season one and two and be like no no no delvin's getting 30 carries like we're not doing that uh it's just that you know with madison i think there are limitations to his game because he doesn't have that breakaway speed where a new coaching staff may look at this entirely differently it is a different running backs coach the previous running backs coach really loved alexander madison and they emphasized pass

blocking a lot which he was pretty good at this new coaching staff might look at kenny wong and say this guy has to be on the field he runs a four or three and is one of the most lightning fast players i think of the entire nfl it would be a mistake in my mind to use alexander madison over kenny wong too much i don't disagree with you i mean at the end the end of the day, look, Madison, no one's taken Madison before around 11 or 12 or so as it is right now. I kind of have them in my A-plus handcuffed here. But based on what you're saying, maybe we need to slide down just a spot or two. But I have him still going behind guys like Ronald Jones, Melvin Gordon, people that are

more certain to have a nice role in their offense. But Madison, Khalil Herbert, Rashad White, the new Buccaneers rookie, Tyler Algier, a lot of these guys are just one injury or suspension away from being out there a good amount. Matthew, we don't need to get into legal logistics, but is Dalvin Cook going to get suspended? Because I just think there's a chance, and I'm wondering because with these rankings, I'm consistently putting Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara lower than they should be just because I know

there's some stuff going on, and while I don't you know sit here and be God and determine what's going to happen I just do think like if a player was injured like an ongoing legal situation does require us to pay attention it would be uh shocking if he was suspended in part because the court dates continued to get moved back this is a very clear legal strategy on his side to move back and move back and move back the court date. So my understanding is I don't even think that there's going to be a court date until like next year. It's been it's been bumped back and moved that that much. And there's a lawsuit and there's a counter lawsuit.

If anybody's forever. Yeah. If anybody's watching the Johnny Depp thing, this is kind of like the Johnny Depp thing. So it's going to take a very long time. And the NFL has made it clear. And we'll see if they change their mind with the Deshaun Watson situation. But they've made it clear if it is not a lawsuit that is criminal, that they're going to just sort of wait and stay back and not do anything about it. So, yeah. Now, there is another competing situation here where the NFL might actually be pressured,

which is Trevor Bauer in baseball. That baseball suspended Trevor Bauer for, what, two years, even though that legal situation has not yet played out. So I guess I would say it is a little complicated, but my expectation is that he's not suspended. The question with Delvin Cook is twofold for you, which is, do you buy that they'll use him in the passing game more often? And I want to know how you parse through these OTA reports, because I kind of roll my eyes. And the age thing, it has to come up every year, but we are getting to the Sean Alexander, Larry Johnson type of age situation with Dalvin Cook. I like how Dalvin had to double down and show that highlight, I think, against Pittsburgh of him catching the downfield pass to just really, really feeding into the mainstream media may news cycle there, Dalvin.

But we've always known he can catch the passes and the new offense maybe will yield that sort of opportunity for him. But come on, I just think this offense is going through Justin Jefferson. And as long as he is out there, Adam Thielen first and foremost. So, I mean, you look at if we're trying to anticipate that Justin Jefferson is going to be a new Cooper Cup, like who the hell was the pass-catching running back in Los Angeles over these years? I know Todd Gurley had some good things going for him

back when he was playing 90%, 95% snaps a game. But I think ultimately that's kind of what it comes down to last season for cook to only i'm looking at it right now i mean 34 catches of 13 games 44 and 14 games i can see a bump up from that just from him continuing to be out there on the field maybe having a slightly higher emphasis on it but in terms of expecting him to turn into this mcafree camara type of back we haven't seen cousins really enable that sort of talent and we haven't really seen the offensive coordinators, the offensive staff have that sort of vision as well.

So, look, it'll be just fine. Once again, I mean, Talvin Cook, when you just look at his raw opportunity, the expected fantasy points going into his workload, there's a reason why he's consistently been a top five fantasy back. He's very good in his own right, but I'm just saying, like one of the cool stats I found this year was Jonathan Taylor, if you took his stats from last year and you remove two yards per carry so you take him from five and a half one of the best running backs in the league to one of the worst running backs in the league at three and a half he still would have been a top five running back

in fantasy football so yeah probably wouldn't have scored off touchdowns so it's not a one for one just the best science experiment but truly that volume means more than anything at the running back position. Yeah. And now that's an interesting conversation right there because Mike Zimmer was criticized a lot for wanting to run the ball too much. And I think that a lot of that criticism was fair of writing Delvin cook all the time, no matter what.

And if they do even slightly move the needle toward the passing side and lean into Kirk Cousins more, I mean, that could have a lot of different results for a lot of players. But you mentioned it off the intro, a guy who we've been talking about for, it seems like, several years, Irv Smith Jr., I think is one of the most interesting people to try to project here because they didn't go out and get any other tight ends. So this is not going to be a situation where Kyle Rudolph gets half the catches and Irv Smith gets half the catches. This is a situation where he truly has the potential for that breakout situation. When he was his first two years in the league,

I always compared him directly to Dallas Goddard. Really, really talented young tight end that flashed all over the place when he was out there. But Goddard had to deal with Zach Ertz, and obviously Irv had to deal with zach urs and um obviously herb had to deal with kyle rudolph to your point and with these situations we you know we saw last year with giovante and moven quarter we always want to put down the veteran get that rookie out there he's better kyle rudolph man like even in his last couple years with the vikings maybe wasn't the same athlete but you saw him man he'd still be making like three or four just

absurd red zone catches per year i remember against the cowboys cousins and kyle rudolph had this connection i was like my god did rudolph and cousin just pull off on the cooler touchdown connections i've seen uh this season so uh with that in mind though i mean irv like you look at him i think he's still only 23 years old they haven't added anyone he's now working at an offense that did not take tyler higby off the field last year everything is going right here for Irv Smith and they didn't even add really major wide receiver competition maybe KJ Osborne is going to be the number three pass game option maybe Dalvin Cook gets more involved but when you look at tight end man I want players that are going to be out there for every single snap

if possible and I think Irv has that firmly in his range of outcomes like just historically if you aren't really going to be out there running a route on more than 80% or so of your offensive snaps, similar to running back, it's just hard to really put up the points when you're playing guys, when you're playing against guys, I should say, that are just getting so many more opportunities for you. So I think Irv Smith is firmly in the conversation to be this year's Dawson Knox or the 2020 Robert Tunyon, this late-round tight end

that maybe isn't going to get the 100, 120 targets we're going to see from Kelsey or Waller, but they're going to be on the field every time. They have a quarterback that could easily flirt with a 30, 40-touchdown season, and we have enough just natural talent to turn those 70, 80 targets, hopefully in the double-digit touchdowns. So Irv Smith, the late-round tight end, in my opinion, this year. I think there are a couple other guys that fit that mold potentially. Robert Tunyon, again, perhaps.

We also see guys like Cole Kometz going to be out there. David Njoku is going to take a nice leap with Austin Hooper. But with Irv Smith, man, I'm betting on the talent we've seen and now getting the biggest workload of his career. Just please be healthy. Yeah, I mean, last year going into the season, people were talking around the team like this has been the best player in training camp irv smith and then gets hurt in the final preseason game

which i'm thinking that uh if they're coming from the rams school of how to keep players healthy not playing your stars in the final preseason game will absolutely be one of those things if i'm not mistaken the rams don't play anybody throughout the preseason. They use it as entirely exhibition for their younger players to develop or guys who are not going to make the team just to put a product on the field. Mike Zimmer would, again, always talk about that, but then once it came to the situation, he'd be like, well, you know, I don't like how they've looked at practice.

Let's get them a few reps out there. And it ends up costing Irv Smith his season. But I think that what you talk about with somebody who's going to be out there for three downs and have an opportunity to be catching a pass on almost every play, this is not a guy who's really known for his blocking. He's a competent blocker, but he's not somebody that you're keeping in on pass pro all the time. You're sending him out.

And I think that he also has something that very few tight ends have, which is downfield capability where a lot of tight ends, you're talking about averaging like eight and a half, nine yards of pass. I think he has a chance to average 12 or 13 yards of catch because he can go down the field. Again, man, it's just like, he's out of sight, out of mind for one year and we just kind of forget about him because all these good things we were saying about him it wasn't like he was going out there and having these 10 target games and just not doing anything with it he wasn't having enough opportunity and we can talk about oh you know good players earn their

opportunity they earn their targets tight ends different we always see tight ends take several years to really get going so it sucks Irv had to deal with that injury but But all things pointing up, man, even if we want to go, like, I think it's as simple as saying they didn't add to the position in a meaningful way. But if you wanted to kind of peel back that layer, Johnny Monk, career blocker, seventh-round block first, Nick Muse. I mean, Tyler Conklin is someone that I honestly was more worried about his involvement with Irv Smith last year. And if Conklin had come back on a reasonable deal,

I probably still would have expected Irv to be the number one, but would have been much harder to just be like, he's going to be out there for every single snap. Because to Conklin's credit, you know, he came in late. It wasn't expecting to have that big of a role and did good things with it. Was pretty surprised that Jets felt the need to add him and Yuzoma and then draft Jimmy Rucker in the third round. But they're doing their thing in New York.

Irv Smith, I mean, again, man, he is going, like, outside the top 15 tight ends right now. Like, if you're in a one tight end redraft league, you might be able to get away with, you know, getting an actual Dalton Schultz or a Gronk, someone that's just going to be a slightly higher tier than Irv Smith. But, man, when I'm playing these underdog fantasy best balls right now, like Irv Smith being as late, as available as he is, that's kind of the tier drop-off where after him, I'm hoping to bedog fantasy best balls right now. Like Earthsmith being as late, as available as he is.

That's kind of a teardrop off where after him, I'm hoping to be done with the position. Well, let's talk about the Justin Jefferson thing and whether we should be buying the idea that he's going to have more targets. Now, I was talking about this the other day, but the difference between how Cooper Cup was used and Justin Jefferson could not be more vast.

I mean, you talk about like a slot quick pass type of receiver whose average depth of target is under nine yards versus a downfield wide receiver whose average depth of target is over 13 yards in Justin Jefferson. Now there were times last year where I said, like, you have to find ways to get them just the football more often instead of always hoping for the home run with Justin Jefferson. I think they're going to take that tax, but I also would warn against over changing his usage. I mean, it's,

it's somebody who's been one of the best receivers in the league, like top five over the last two years. I don't know if you're Kevin O'Connell that you want to just say, Hey, look, Justin, let's completely overhaul this. Let's do everything that you do differently. I think he'd still be good, but I also think you don't want to galaxy brain yourself too much there.

There's a throwaway quote from Leonard Fournette a couple of years ago. And, you know, back when I was working news and I'd see like every single quote from all the practices and Fournette just said, ballers are going to ball regardless of circumstances. And come on, what are we doing here with Justin Jefferson? He was fourth in the NFL in targets last year already 163 like opportunity has been there it's like the same thing when you know Tyree Kill leaves Kansas City and everyone's like oh my god what's next for Tyree Kill or opposite you know what I'm saying what's next for Travis Kelsey with Tyree Kill out of Kansas City it's like who was watching this offense saying if only Travis Kelsey had a few more targets in the first place?

I think it's just seeing Cupp have that big of a year. People want to see it again, but newsflash, that was the most productive season in NFL history that Cooper Cupp just had in terms of fantasy points, which even if you scoff at fantasy, it uses all the same stats that, quote-unquote, real football people use. Your receptions, your receiving

yards, your touchdowns. We just threw fantasy in front of points there. With that in mind take out the 17th game he still only trails and i think it was like 1994 jerry rice by one total point so that's how freaking ridiculous cooper cup was last year and yeah a lot of that is modern football full ppr scoring but you know it's no i don't really think justin jefferson is going to have the best wide receiver season ever i think he could very well have the best wide receiver season in 2022. But let's not act like there's going to be a new Cooper Cup every single season. This was when James Robinson busts out as like the first RB1 undrafted free agent in a decade.

And then there's 10 articles the next offseason talking about, you know, who's this year's James Robinson? Who's going to be this decade's James Robinson? Who's this next century's Cooper Cup at this point? But, man, like if they want to put him in the slot more, that's great. I think NFL teams could make bigger use of that. I mean, consistently. And I understand why defenses aren't just actively moving their number one corner into the slot.

It can cause a lot of confusion, different assignments for everyone else on the defense. But, you know, normally if the teams are going to continue to put their lesser cornerback as the number three nickel inside, let Justin Jefferson roast that guy. So I'll be more interested to see what you were kind of talking about earlier. Just will we get a more overall pass first approach? And what could that could maybe mean for Kirk Cousins? Because you look at the numbers, man, efficiency wise, you're going to be hard pressed to put them outside the top 10, top 12.

And most of those metrics, if all of a sudden we get that volume jump. I mean, hey, we want Jefferson to be the next Cooper Cupp. I think Cousins becoming like the Matthew Stafford this season is far more realistic because Stafford last year, let's not pretend like everyone was just, you know, making him out to be the hero throughout the way. I thought every single interception he threw, people were, you know, hey, I was posting the memes of the Scooby-Doo character ripping off the mask, and then it's, oh, look, it's Detroit Stafford again.

So, if anything, I think it could be Kirk Cousins, who has already been playing at a high level, but maybe in a more friendly system, really takes that to the next step inside a talented offense that doesn't exactly ask him to carry the game as much as others might because he's got guys like freaking Justin Jefferson out there. Yeah, I was thinking not too long ago about just um matt stafford and how he absolutely threw one of those interceptions but the 49ers guy dropped it and they get to be the super bowl

champions kind of because of that it's like he even had you know kind of one of those interceptions in the super bowl but you know aaron donald also plays for his team which is pretty helpful so uh no to your point though i think that if you're if you're moving justin jefferson into the slot more to get him involved earlier so if he has the same number of targets but they're not always uh-oh we're down 14 points and we have to come back and throw to justin jefferson all the time like like you could have the same number of targets but do it a lot better which i think what they should really aim for now before we talk about cousins, people can't see you who are listening right now, but you're on StreamYard. You put your name in, your name says Adam Thielen isn't that old. I mean, a little bit though, a little bit though.

I think what we have with Adam Thielen is a clear number two situation where when he was playing with Stefan Diggs in the peak of his powers, it was 1A, 1B, and whoever you decided was your favorite got to be 1A. But in this situation, it's very clear 1A and 1B between Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Oh, of course. But the thing is, it's not like we're being asked to buy Thielen at the same price as when he was the 1B or 1A with Stefan Diggs. People are just completely writing off Thielen at this point.

I'm talking like not going in the top 36 receivers in some of these drafts. So that's where I'm drawing the line because once you start getting into like these rookies that are also in crowded depth charts, like your Garrett Wilsons, your Drake Londons of the world versus Adam Thielen, I'm going to throw some shots there at Thielen. I'm like, no, I'm not drafting him as my wide receiver two or even wide receiver three, four or five. Okay, that's where you sign me up. And that's the big problem I think people get with some of these players you're ezekiel elliott's

of the world you know christian mccaffrey someone that burns you to an extent and you just say i'm not drafting i'm not drafting him it doesn't matter everyone else probably has that same mindset and that's going to cause them to fall like no you shouldn't draft zeke in round one this year but round four or five might as well be a completely different player. And that's how I'm kind of looking at Adam Thielen, because I think this injury and this age thing, it's being just held against him more so than other guys. Over the last two years, he's played 28 of 33 games. The only games he missed in 2020, I think, was one game because of COVID.

That's the same amount as Allen Robinson. More games than Chris Goblin, DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, Devontae Parker, Corey Davis, Kenny Galladay. And I know Thielen is a little bit older than those guys, but we don't hear, like, any of these concerns with them. So that's another kind of issue that I have sometimes with the fantasy community. We hold one kind of variable more so against one player, and we don't apply it to everyone else.

So right now, Saquon Barkley was the only running back to have a bad 2021 season. Who cares that he averaged the same yards per carry as Alvin Kamara and James Conner? That eye test from that Sunday when I was 10 beers in, you know, back in week 10, tells me all I needed to know about Saquon Barkley last year. So ultimately, Thielen, you know, we're living on the touchdown upside because over the last two years,

somehow tied for third in receiving touchdowns with 24 behind only Mike Evans and Devontae Adams. But he kind of is like Mike. It's basically like, you know, your upper-class man's version of Mike Evans right now is what you have with Adam Thielen. Same thing with Kirk Cousins, probably go lower class, you know, compared to Brady and this weird ass analogy, but with Thielen, no, we're not getting 160 targets, but if you don't think he can score 10 plus touchdowns with 100, 125 targets, you know, I will certainly take that wager.

Yeah, I think that, I mean, last year the injury was really more of a freak thing. It was not one of these like, oh, there's his hamstring again, you know, where every year you're sort of having that conversation. Like with someone like Julio Jones later in his career with Atlanta, where every week he's on that injury report. That hasn't been the case with Thielen it's really been that he just had some some bad breaks in 2019 and then uh last year he got tackled funny against the Lions they pushed him to come back too early and then he got re-injured they shouldn't have done that obviously uh but um you know it wasn't something that looks like it's going to be restrictive long term and the one thing about Thielen in his game is that it's never been about like lightning speed. It's always been about the route running ability, the hands, the ball tracking, getting open by, you know, knowing the offense extremely well, knowing the details of routes like those types of things.

I mean, you don't want to be the cliche of like, not the best athlete out there, but he's always been, for his height, a decent athlete who really won with the route running in the hands. And I think that that's something that should carry on. When we talk about Thielen here, it's more through the context of, sort of cap hit on Adam Thielen but as a player there's no reason why he should fall off to anything below what he was midway through last year before he got hurt absolutely so right now I have Thielen ranked as my wide receiver 27 it's ahead of guys like Alan Robinson Elijah Moore Trey Lomberg Drake London rookies that also aren't really definitively their offense is number one and also some of these guys like Brandon Cooks and Darnell Mooney who are just in these passing games that, oh, man, I'll take 10, 15 fewer targets if it means they're coming from Kirk Cousins

instead of a Justin Fields running for his life, you know, every single play out there. So maybe Chicago turns around. I am not so sure about that. But, hey, like Irv Smith too, man, you look at Thielen, even K.J. Osborne who's going to be way cheaper in drafts, obviously, but for them not to add a receiver on day one or day two or go into the free agency and make a meaningful addition,

it's good news for all these guys. No, that's for sure. And it'll be interesting to see the competition for behind KJ Osborne because all of a sudden that matters. And a few people emailed me about saying that the Vikings have a bunch of wide receiver fours beyond their two wide receivers, but that's the competition that's going to exist in a three receiver system. You need four or five guys like a Van Jefferson who could come in if somebody, and when somebody

gets hurt on the Vikings, not adding a guy was pretty surprising, but sort of showed some confidence in Osborne. And, you know, maybe even a mere Smith Marset could be a low key guy that starts to emerge on the matter of cousins though. I question whether pushing him to the max and, and I've made the joke of like lean into the Kirk and, and go just go all in on this passing variance and hope that you know he gets hot or something but every again every coach kind of wants to do that and then they had this in 2018 oh we just signed him to this huge contract we're going to throw every play Kirk is going to go out there and be the centerpiece of the offense and then it didn't work out so well and they shifted back to a run and play action and everything else.

I think that they still want to have kind of not exactly run first, but still want to run the ball a lot with Delvin cook, still want to run a lot of play actions and make this sort of a rich man, Jared golf type of situation. And, and by the way, he threw 600 passes last year. So we act like, oh, they never threw the ball or something. He threw 600 passes. So I don't think that he's going from 600 to 700.

I think it's going to be very similar to last year. That's the thing, man. I'll bring up my PFF passing grade about him or yards per attempt, and people will shoot those down and be, I don't need your advanced analytics. Well, what about the counting numbers? 4,200 yards, 33 touchdowns, just seven picks. He's not a top five quarterback. I don't think

there's anyone out there arguing that. Probably not even top 10, but the man is a top 15 player in the entire world at what he does. I think the idea, the slander that Kirk Cousins gets on a weekly basis may be a little bit too much. For Vikings fans, I know it comes down to the amount of money he's making, the lack of playoff success. It's a little bit different much for Vikings fans. I know it comes down to the amount of money he's making, the lack of playoff success.

So it's a little bit different for you guys, but I think more so in the national conversation, a little bit more respect should probably be put on Kirk's, on Kirk's name consistently. But I think what you said about being a rich man's Jared Goff makes a lot of sense because Kirk, let's face it. A lot of those yards, a lot of those great highlight, the big time throws as we track them at PFF,

they come when he is given a clean pocket, which, yeah, we would expect all quarterbacks to be better when they're not being pressured, but it was extreme for Cousins last year. Only Jameis Winston actually averaged fewer yards per attempt than Kirk when he was pressured versus kept clean. 3.4 fewer yards per attempt for Cousins when he started to get under pressure. So I would say, you know, arguably just being able to set him up for those play actions and have that,

you know, clean pocket to rifle that ball downfield. That's going to be his best chance of success. It probably isn't, you know, stepping back to, you know, get out these West Coast style, just one quick completion after another. Maybe that's not his game so much. You know, we have, maybe that'll keep the pressure off. I don't know. We got a lot of questions going in this year,

but I think the biggest thing with Kirk is that I don't want to assume he can maintain that same sort of efficiency moving up. You know, we don't expect a three-point shooter that shoots 50% on four shots a game to just absolutely keep crushing it when you increase the shots to eight or nine. But, hey, maybe there's a chance. And to your point, like what's the other solution here? Just continuing to pound the rock with Dalvin Cook until a shoulder injury

comes along or a running back room that's filled with guys we like but let's face it you know some late rounders that aren't exactly uh you know the highest values around the league so with Kirk keep that man healthy and let's let him cook a little bit he's got two three good pass up pass game options out there I think Kirk Cousins could prove a lot of people wrong this year uh is there any age consideration at quarterback? Because we are reaching the point where, look, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are just freaks of nature. They're aliens, and they can play until they're a million years old. Plus, Tom Brady is doing something to his body that is maybe not legit, but with Kirk Cousins, but with Kirk Cousins, though, he falls into a category of similar players who in their mid thirties have started to slip.

I wondered if the second half of the last season would mean anything to you, because in the second half of last season, there was clearly a fade in his play. And I don't know, like age comes for everybody except for Tom Brady eventually and I don't know how you factor that in I think that's something they should be a little worried about but I don't know how to say oh this year's the year that he starts to slip I'm gonna do a study looking at just does every quarterback start to fall off in the second half compared to the first because everyone brings us up for Kyler and Russ and has nothing to do with their age we for that argument we just try to say it's because of their play style and they're too small to hold up over the course of a season.

But, you know, when it happens with Kirk, it's because he's old. So that's something I want to get more to the bottom of. I'm not too worried about it right now because I didn't see his arm strength fall off a cliff like we kind of saw in the second half of Peyton Manning in 2014. I think even Drew Brees in 2019 when he was there down the stretch. I think Kirk can still sling it. And even though Brady and Rodgers are making up a lot of the success of quarterback, we've seen more guys. I mean, Big Ben, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo,

these guys will all still be able to put up top 12 fantasy seasons past the age of 35. So overall, looking at just quarterback year by year, 21 through 35, total PPR, just top, it doesn't matter for quarterback, total top fantasy performers over the past 10 years, 21% of the top fantasy performers have been age 35 or older. I mean, no other single age book is even over 11% for quarterback. back wide receiver once you get past you know 28 29 especially for wide receiver you see the big drop off of quarterback and then also even tight end we do see these veterans continue to beat just fine so not every situation is created equal uh you know Peyton when he had that neck surgery hey even he still has some big years after that but again once you saw his arm just turn into a duck at the end of the year I think it was reasonable to be off the you know off the train in 2015 for

him but with kirk right now not immediately worried about that age for the vikings building a future contender uh certainly something they should be keeping in mind you don't want to kind of have a steelers roethlisberger end um to the era going on there where all of a sudden he just can't get the ball downfield but at least for 2022 i think kirk is still slim uh i think so too it should be fine. But it's one of those things where I've brought up that like by this age, Joe Flacco was playing for Denver, right? Like there are similar quarterbacks, even Matt Ryan by this age started to slip

who are, well, I don't know how similar Matt Ryan really is to Kirk as a top draft pick and a guy who's like six foot five and all that. But, you know, quarterbacks who are not considered the goats who started to slip around this age. But again, hard to tell when that's going to come. I do think there is a point to be made about the second half where quarterbacks do play worse because defenses have a lot of tape on them, injuries around them. But with Kirk, it was kind of extreme because I looked at this last year where midway through the season, he really hit this, whether it's PFF grade or QBR kind of hit a wall. But knowing whether that's going to project, you know, I have no idea. But yeah, just last thing with Kirk real quick.

And I'm not saying that you need to take him as a top 10 or top 12 quarterback right now. I actually have him ranked 14th. He's behind Derek Carr, behind Rogers, and he's behind Stafford. He's in this tier of older quarterbacks that are not going to be running as much. And they're going to need the 4,500 yards and the 30, 40 passing touchdowns to get up there. But at the same time, after him, Deshaun Watson, who the hell knows how long he's going to be suspended, if at all. Trey Lance, is Jimmy G ever going to leave? Justin Fields, my God, that team sucks. Ryan Tannehill, Zach Wilson.

Like, you kind of again i think if you're objective about cousins and you know you'll see the people people on the twitter comments saying no wouldn't draft him in a 60 round fancy draft at any point i think if you objectively sit down and try to make fancy rankings where again we're looking at that production style points don't matter we just want the production as ugly or as beautiful as it might be i think you'd be hard- hard pressed to name 15 quarterbacks. You just take a head of Kirk. And he is one of the most remarkably consistent players production wise in the NFL, which

is one of the reasons I think they wanted to stick with him because you know what you're going to get. You know that he's going to be healthy because I mean, the guy has had an incredible health track record, which you always have to worry about. Before I let you go, I want you to tell me which one of the quarterbacks from last year's draft class takes the quote next step uh is uh justin fields going to overcome his horrendous circumstances zach wilson they've put everything they could around him as you mentioned even more tight ends they've given the man absolutely everything to work with more offensive linemen um you know or

is uh is even mac jones going to take this to another level after a very good start how are you viewing that draft class mac jones definitely was the top rookie quarterback last year but didn't we spend the entire offseason saying how he's the most pro-ready quarterback and then he is the most pro-ready quarterback and all of a sudden it's like shitty of god number one ahead of trevor lawrence from the beginning i'm leaning towards zach wilson here mainly because of what you said for them to go and add garrett wilson to a wide receiver room that i thought was pretty fine with cory davis elijah moore and even braxton barrios to begin with they had not one not two but three solid tight ends nightmare for fantasy to try to figure that out but hey for

zach wilson the realets, that's good. And then Brees Hall, who PFF, you know, a lot of my coworkers can't, you know, talk about the NFL without talking about how the Jets never should have traded up for Brees Hall. He's still a very good running back. So, capital issues aside, adding Brees Hall to that offense is going to make them better. And unlike a lot of these other guys, the offensive line is actually in a pretty good spot. And getting a healthy season out of Beckton should obviously be huge for them. So yeah, man, with Zach Wilson, we don't, it's injuries are one of those things that we seem to hold against some guys and not so much for others because Zach Wilson had

his best game of the year in week five against the Titans, like really showing off that big time arm. He was freaking heaving that thing 60 yards, like freaking throws that two. I can probably only dream about, sorry to it. That was uncalled for. But after that, man, man shortly into week seven he sprains his knee he comes back once he returned in week 12 he got one game out of cory davis and two out of elijah moore he was thrown to like creative like random generated players called jeff smith and dj montgomery by the time that season was over so the offense was all kinds of banged up we knew wilson was

gonna have a pretty steep curve coming from BYU you know just having all day to throw being a being a younger quarterback having to adjust to higher competition levels so I don't know that it was that surprising that Wilson had this drop off you can argue the same thing for Trevor Lawrence and that's fine I'm not out on Trevor Lawrence but the fact that Lawrence seems to get such a pass for the rookie year and people's conclusion with Wilson is like oh yeah, yeah, no, he just sucks. And he always will. That's where I kind of draw the line.

So we have seen quarterbacks be this bad as a rookie and then come on as a second-year fantasy stud. Derek Carr, 12 fantasy points per game as a rookie, 17 the next year. Trubisky, first year, looks like why the hell would he ever be a number two overall pick? That first year with Matt Nagy, though, we actually did see a peak out of him 18.8 fantasy points per game blake portals he had the one great fantasy year in his second season and carson wentz was atrocious as a rookie legit plays as an mvp caliber player the second year so you know i'm bringing up the four

good ones i'm not mentioning josh rosen uh geno smith brandon weed and case keenum ej manual list goes on and on with the bad ones but it it wouldn't be unprecedented for Wilson to take that step forward. I think they've made all the right moves to think it's going to happen, and I just hope it will, man, because the reason why I still root for Drew Locke eight days a week is because some quarterbacks, just the way they play, the risks they take, it's more fun to watch for better and for worse, and I think Zach Wilson has that type of DNA at the quarterback position.

Yeah, I mean, with Zach Wilson, his circumstances were so bad, but also not just because of the players around him, but being asked to step right in. It's one of those things where when a guy is drafted, everyone says, you should really maybe sit him for a year, let him learn. And the team's like, no, no, no. People want to see Zach Wilson. Put him in.

And then it ends up being a disaster but I looked this up not too long ago of rookie adjusted yards per attempt quarterback rating all those things and then what they did in their second year and there was almost no correlation except for the ones who were truly so horrific like uh like Josh Rosen so I think the door is still open there. Fields, I think, is going to have a tough go of it just because there's not a whole lot around him. But if he is able to overcome that and win like seven games, then there's probably something there with Justin Fields. But that's kind of one of those top storylines. Since no one drafted quarterbacks, you have to look at the last draft class.

Follow him on Twitter at iHeartitz, H-A-R-T-I-T-Z, I think is right. Tricky one, but you got it. Yep. on Twitter at I heart. It's a H a R T I T Z. I think is right. Tricky one, but you got it. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep.

Yep. So, or if you just type in heart, it'll come up with your face. So I love that you bring a different perspective to the show from the, the fantasy angle. And I look forward to coming back on your show and dropping more blazing takes that have the internet roasting me. But I i was justified last year i said justin jefferson

kind of reminds me of julio jones with how unstoppable he is at all levels and all these falcons fans what no hey 1600 yards i'm just saying so i think my point too was like yeah i do get annoyed when especially for the college prospects, like, it's okay to use, you know, these descriptors like a poor man's, a middle class man's, a slower. We don't, you know, every draft class shouldn't have five Devontae Adams, like, coming out in it. So, but with your Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones take, we had already seen him put forward one of, if not the single best rookie wide receiver season ever. So, after that, it's like, yeah, you probably should be comparing him to one of the best wide receivers in the league that it's like yeah you probably should be comparing him to one of the best wide receivers in the league that's all we're seeing him be and to your credit that's what he was in 2021 yeah just saying like right like i saw him play folks

i watched every game uh it was the covet year there was no fans so the only people in the stadium were like me and 14 other reporters we saw it he's really good at football. So anyway, I'll mess this one up probably this year, but thanks for coming on the show as always, man. And we'll catch up again. Thank you.