Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Over-Unders in the Divisional Round NFL playoffs

Episode Date: January 16, 2026

Mike Schopp of ADP Chasing & WGR 550 joins the show to preview this weekend's slate of games and review how our playoff fantasy teams did last week. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider presented by Fandul, Matthew Collar, here along with Mike Shope, WGR550 in Buffalo and ADP chasing for our fantasy show. And last week, if you listen to the show, we drafted two different playoff fantasy teams. And Mike, I was proud of one of our draft picks and not a lot of others of our draft picks last week for our two teams. and that one was Joanne Jennings because Kittal ends up getting hurt. Joanne Jennings throws a touchdown. He's playing this week against the Seattle Seahawks. But we had some struggles otherwise. And I think it really just speaks to the fun of that challenge,

but also how difficult it is to try to figure out who's going to shine in the playoffs. That's right. Earlier in that, early in that game, I was tilting a little bit about DeMarcus Robinson, who had a huge play and then a touchdown. I'm like, oh, well, we were adjacent, but it wasn't enough. And then, like you said, he threw a touchdown pass and he is still alive. As we talked about, I mean, first of all, tournaments are not for the faint of heart.

You can't expect, you know, necessarily a positive ROI in tournaments. You're just hoping to hit a big one. And, you know, my portfolio kind of looks like that for this season right now where I've got a couple teams. Unfortunately, it's not one of ours, but that are like right there. is still three weeks to go and a lot is going to change. So there's that. But I think I was going to say the key to success in these is to get the losing teams players right. And that is such a guessing game.

Ladd McConkey is on the team you mentioned. And like you watch the film stuff the next day and he's just open all night. He's open all night. But he never gets the ball. He barely was even targeted in the game until late there was a player to. maybe it was never going to happen for Kenneth Gainwell for Pittsburgh, but it really didn't happen for anybody in that game. So, I mean, they scored six points.

They were a fade in retrospect. A lot of people did do that. So and on and on. Like you needed Romeo Dobbs, I guess, from the Packers and not Josh Jacobs. I think we might have gone with Jacobs on that team. So that's the spirit of it. It's really hard to know. And if you get the guys who go out in round one right to the tune of

25 or so fantasy points, if they even exist. You're live in these things. We'd like to have our quarterback going into week two. We don't. We went with Trevor Lawrence. Very winnable game. He did make some plays. You know, I've been talking about this game every day here in Buffalo,

and there was one play that really disappointed me from Lawrence, and it was early. They were up 7.3. They had fourth and two at the Buffalo 9, and he keeps the ball, which I thought was a great idea. because like the bill's defense is doing lots of different looks. And, you know, the good news for Jacksonville is having a six-foot-six, two-140-pound quarterback.

And he gets out and he's got a linebacker in front of him and he dives. Like, you know, you would just not, Josh Allen just would never. Sorry. And then I watched the night game and Justin Herbert is like the same only worse. It's just two huge quarterbacks in an era where the value of having the quarterback be able to sort of cheat code first-time. and touchdowns is obvious, and they won't do it. Like, maybe that's a little bit unfair to Lawrence,

but that was like, this is the playoffs, buddy. Fourth and two with the nine, why are you diving at the feet of the linebacker hoping to barely make the first down? Come on. So we lost him. We lost on that one on this team. It happens. Yeah, I think there is something when it comes to the mobility aspect of Lawrence.

I'll throw even Jordan Love into this. Lawrence, Herbert, and Jordan Love, where all three of them are certainly capable of being that playmaking, steal a first down. I know exactly what play you're talking about. And then we got the incredible television breakdown of, I don't know, Jim, I think a shin was touching there. And it's like, oh, my goodness, here comes Gene. And spotting the football was a huge challenge in this football game.

But, and then we got, we got the tennis thing that showed us, oh, it's just the nose of the ball, which it takes just as much time as for those guys to trot out with their little sticks. I just anyway. Less, I would say. Less time I would say. Feel wet. Right. And there was at least.

The people are still there. Those guys are still on the field. They just don't go out of the field anymore. There was at least a little drama of here comes the stick. And first down. And you be like, yeah, there goes to crap. And then it's like, uh, everyone just looks around. And then he says first down.

And the fans go, oh, yay. Or anyway, it just did whatever. That's one of those. You know, like, I don't understand, like, there's a lot of instances of technology just making things worse and not better. And to me, that's one of them. That's especially egregious, I think, because, like, I just have never bought into this replay assist world.

I don't want to be, I don't want that. And, you know, most people will tell you, certainly everybody on TV that's talking about it will tell you the same thing, which is how it makes things more efficient. And the problem is transparency. The problem is that you just don't really know if you're wired a certain way, I guess. Some people are not and they'll just accept whatever it is they're told. But I'm not that way. I always was sort of thought to question these kinds of things.

And so the virtual measurement is yet another level of, okay, well, maybe that's actually what the pictures showed, but you're not actually showing me a picture. You're showing me a graphic. And I don't know. I'm not this way about tennis. when they call the lines, I feel like that never really gets challenged. Federer used to shake his head at it, thinking that the line calls were wrong through the technology,

and I kind of believed him. When he was doing it, I thought, this guy is such a savant. Maybe he's the one person who would know, and the rest of us just can't see the field that well. But yeah, I just, all of it is some person, somewhere else, is making this decision for us, and we know all the different motives that the league has. The league, some of its announcers, famously El Michaels, would rip games if there were too many penalties without any consideration for whether the calls were right.

There's a certain number of penalties that's too many. So we're going to intentionally let a lot of stuff go because we don't want that. We don't want three hour, 15 minute games. Well, no, I mean, it is a tangent, but at the same time, like at the end of the half, they get a, free field goal and luckily for the bills it was a ball don't lie situation but clearly the ball is not snapped before the clock runs out and you have this is what never makes sense to me you have your people in new york who can see that but they don't buzz down and tell them but if there's something else that they can look at a penalty flag or something they can buzz and tell them or the spot

of the football they can buzz and tell them but why not that and i mean really goes back to like when sam darnold's head was ripped off on thursday night football where the referee is standing eight feet away from him his face mask is grabbed it's pulled all the way to the side and the referee does not see it i mean for a personal foul penalty that's so obvious that's so obvious you would think that you could buzz in and say that was a personal foul that put someone at risk. But they're like, no, we can't do that. Because it's like, well, why?

But then they do. The next time they still do it. Right, right. But then you can't tell me they're in their little huddle and they're like, you're whispering about to play. You can't tell me someone's not buzzing into an ear on some of these plays. And then it happened in that Lions game where they had an illegal formation and the refs didn't catch it.

But they buzzed in. Well, I thought you couldn't call a flag. from New York. It just doesn't make any dang sense and it's impacting games. It's always this way and just now because of the advances in technology and the changes to the process, it's just worse.

Because we used to have, I don't remember the play. It might have happened many times. But, you know, whether it's the play clock or the game clock even ticking down, I remember a referee announcing that the whistle had the intent to blow the whistle

was what mattered. It wasn't that there was no whistle so the play went on but they meant to. Or, you know, that's a challenge flag too. It was actually said in time even though the flag, it's always moving. And the only

way to keep any sanity about it is to just sort of let it be what it is or else you know, just intelligent people would never bother. Like you just couldn't take it. And I think it still is getting worse and the technology allows for it, which is maybe counterintuitive,

but that's how I see it. Anywho, Justin Herbert and Lawrence, I always, so I always had this frustration with Kirk Cousins when it came to the mobility because there would be first downs that were left out on the field and you would get, you know, sacks and things like that where you say, I need a play from you there. And with Kirk, it's, I mean, he was a fourth round draft pick who grinded like crazy to have a career and, you know, got there with improving his throwing and mastering

offenses and things like that. But with somebody like Lawrence or somebody like Herbert, you're like, what is your excuse for not making a play sometimes? And I just don't think, especially with Herbert, it's in his DNA, which is why I've referred to him on the show as Kirkbert so many times, because he puts up a lot of stats and boy, the all 22 people just fall all over themselves talking about how great he is. And then it's three points in this playoff game. It's four interceptions in another playoff game. He seems very solvable. And we saw that from the New England Patriots. And that's with respect to the fact that he didn't have tackles. But to your point, there were opportunities there. You shouldn't score three points against a New England defense, which is good. But it certainly

is not like the Houston Texans. It's not one of the greater defenses. So yep, we got burned on Trevor Lawrence because I think there's something that's short, a little bit short there. But now we have games to look at. So why don't we take a look? We'll just start. We'll run down some of the most interesting storylines slash props for these games. We start with Buffalo at Denver, which is interesting to me because the line on Fandul moved a little bit. I don't know if we have an explanation for why it moved. If you understand that. I don't. It's same thing happened last week and same number. went from one and a half Buffalo to one and a half Jacksonville, maybe even two by kickoff.

So it moved three points on Saturday last week. And this happened right away. This was like on Tuesday, I think. And the same exact thing happened, one and a half bills to one and a half Broncos. You know, I think usually that's a big bet or a series of big bets on the new favorite that moves that. But I'm not sure. Yeah. I mean, because I didn't think that anything changed or there was any sort of injury or whatever that would have done that.

Although the bills are going to be down a couple of depth wide receivers now. So I guess Jeremy White has to go play wide receiver for the bills in this game. But Tyrell Shavers was the second one. I mean, Dave Davis, they knew torn ACL right away. And he's certainly depth. Shavers, who's lesser known, that news came out on Monday, even though he suffered the injury in the first half and played the second half. He's lesser known.

He doesn't get many targets. But he's on the field more than anybody else in that receiving room because of his blocking. And he plays special teams too. So I doubt Tyrell Shavers move the line three points. But I think he's significant. Yeah, I think he matters. When it comes to the overrunners for the passing here, Bo Nix is at 210.5. And Josh Allen is at 208.5.

And with both of these guys, right, this is not exactly John Elway, Jim Kelly type of lines here where you'd expect, you know, passing explosions. Both of these guys are the quarterbacks that we were just talking about that Herbert and Lawrence don't maybe have the natural playmaking, but these guys do. It seems, though, that there's an expectation there's going to be a lot of running of the football and maybe not so much just leaning on these guys' arms. Probably. The total is pretty healthy, though, at 46 and a half. So 1.5, 46 and a half. You're talking like 24, 22, 24 to 22. 24 to 22 and a half, I guess, to be exact. And the points are coming from somewhere then.

I never want to bet against Allen, right? I mean, in these games, the bigger they are, but 208, what are they telling us? There's nobody to throw to, and he won't have time. I mean, Denver has some real elite talent on defense. So it's such a low number that I'd be, I'd probably want to avoid it. You know, when I look at spreads and we talk about prop bets, if they seem weird to me, run away or go the other way even. All right.

What's supposed to be so low? We had J.J. McCarthy games where the number, sorry, too soon, where the number was so low, like, wow, really? And then under was easily to play on a couple of those occasions. So interesting that Nix is even higher than Allen. I mean, Nix is going to throw the ball to the running back a lot. RJ Harvey, that's a lot of what they do. They can get big plays, like out of Marvin Mims, if they care to try, or Troy Franklin.

and then there's always Sutton. So I think I'd maybe lean over on Knicks because they really don't have the even Travis Etyn. They really don't have the established every down running back that can sort of grind you down. The Jaguars kind of did that against Buffalo. They didn't run as often as maybe they could have, but they were successful. And I don't see the Broncos really approaching this game that way. So give me the over on Knicks.

And I'll pass on Allen. If I had to, I think I'd go under just because. as the number is so low. I mean, last week, the bills didn't run like we thought they would. And they had to lean on Allen and he was there for them. I mean, that performance to me was masterful from him throwing the football. But the question is now, like, you have to go on the road to Denver where it's going to be tough. That defense.

And Jags defense is really good. But this defense is probably even better, especially with their secondary. They blitz a lot. They get a lot of pressure. So yeah, I mean, that one is a tough to see, is he going to have like a huge game because it feels like if you're going to have a huge number game, that would be playing from behind the entire day. This one feels to me much more like punching each other, but not necessarily with haymakers. Like lots of, lots of jabs back and forth and then somebody kind of breaks through. And who that somebody is is not clear for either team.

the highest number in terms of over under on fan duel for a wide receiver is 49. 5. So they don't even expect 50 yards from anybody in this game, right? So I think that both teams have a little bit of the same challenge of not having that one dude who is going to be leaned on by their quarterback. And both teams might have to take a little more methodical, a little more of a, you know, I don't know, field position at times type of thing, a little more old school football. but this is where Denver does have the stronger defense overall than the bill. And I felt like Trevor Lawrence just helped the bills last week. So it's kind of like if Bonix keeps the train on the tracks,

then you can move the football against Buffalo's defense. I think so too. I think a couple of interesting names in that wide receiver group. One is Pat Bryant for Denver at 31.5. Not a household name. He went out of a late season. game with a nasty looking head injury, but is apparently back. And this is the rookie that Sean Payton before the season compared with Michael Thomas. So if they're there, so to speak,

on Bryant, I could see him clearing that number, maybe being the man in their passing offense on Saturday. And then Brandon Cooks, on the Buffalo side, his number last week for Jacksonville was in the teens. And that was one of those who were like, oh, really? And there were other examples this year with the bills where some receiver's number was Shavers, in fact, in one case, his number was super low. I'm like, guys, that's not a good sign. It's not, they're not giving away money. This is not an opt-in promotion here. This is like, they don't think Tyrell Shavers is going to clear nine and a half receiving guards or whatever.

And so Cooks was in the teens, but he got there that one big play late. That's the thing with him. And that was him against Philadelphia, too. There were just big, big chunk plays with him. So this week, we're up to 28 and a half. on Cooks. It'd still be a little bit leery because he's still not getting more respect. But as you said, they're down to more guys. And right now, Shakir, Cooks and Coleman is pretty much it. If you're, if you dare to dive into the key on Coleman space, I mean, he's going to have to play.

Yeah, that's where that's where it's really. I mean, there's one of the guys I do a show with here, former NFL player will say about certain throws. Like if it was a spear, it would have killed them. like it's just where you have to hit him right in the chest with i mean that feels like it's going to have to be the way josh allen throws the football in this game and then uses his legs a lot give me the two overs on the running backs though cook and harvey so 15 and a half 18 and a half uh james cook is you mean just for yardage for both them receiving oh receiving okay i think denver will will need and want to throw the ball to r j harvey and in space he's dangerous and I don't know. Like Ty Johnson is still iffy. He missed last week. The bills didn't give the ball to anybody but Cook in the game. Alan had his runs, but no one else I believe had a single carry. Maybe Cook is capable of it too. I mean, just a short pass. It seems a little bit like an obvious bet, but I'm going to do it. Day over receiving on the two running back. Yeah, you were right. 15 and a half for Cook and 18 and a half for RJ Harvey. So who are you picking in this football game?

I always feel this pressure to rep the bills on every outside of the market show I do. And this time of year it's a lot of them. And I always feel like either a trader or disappointment if I don't or both, if I don't pick the bills. I just, I didn't trust them last week. They won. I think it's a game that, you know, they were kind of lucky to win. It wasn't that they were outplayed. But even the last interception, Lawrence had.

Parker Washington, he needed an extra a half second. Bosa just walked through the left tackle and got to Lawrence, made that a little tougher. But I would say Denver because there are just all these advantages in the intangibles with the time off versus a Bill's team that's just absolutely beaten up. And Alan, I mean, what happened on Sunday?

Hit in the head, helmet ripped off, tweaks his knee, throws his hand into a helmet, And he already had a foot-ankle thing before. The guy's unbelievable. But it's more of Josh Allen as the whole team team than the bills have ever been since he got here, you know, in this era. And they play the first game of the weekend after a three-hour flight in altitude. Interesting that Allen played his college career at Wyoming, which apparently is 2,000 feet higher than Denver. I didn't know that.

Yeah. So I guess I wouldn't worry about his conditioning. but I think Denver has too many edges and are another team, even though they don't have Patrick Mahomes, or another team that really makes life hard on you physically. And that's what the bills maybe can't afford. And sometimes in these playoff games, you'll match up against a team that hasn't been there and maybe has a new coach like Liam Cohen. And I thought that Liam Cohen lost the thread in the game a little bit where it was, like, dude,

they're not stopping your run game at all. and yet you're having Lawrence drop back to pass, drop back to pass. It was almost like, well, I have to, I think some coaches have this happen. Well, I have to be a genius. So I can't just, and this is why Kyle Shanahan, this is why that whole crew, Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, they don't need to be a genius. Sometimes if it's the simplest thing that's working, they'll just stick with it. And I felt like Cohen kind of lost it there.

But Sean Payton's the coach. And, you know, I don't think that you're going to run into that necessarily with him. But I will still pick Buffalo. because Josh Allen is the best human being playing football in the National Football League right now. And I'm just going to roll with that. That, you know, sometimes that is the thing that ends up just carrying somebody through. So that's... Occam's Razor.

It's right. It's right. It's right. The year Mahomes went through the on the road in the playoffs and they were underdogs each week. Like, tell me again, why not Mahomes? What is that argument again? Right. And so that applies here.

That's exactly it. So, I mean, even last year with Kansas City, if you were just saying, I don't know, my homes, like you got there. Let's go to the 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are seven point favorites here on Fandul in this game. You talk about all the ancillary factors that could go into something without George Kittle. 17 other players are injured that are significant for the 49ers. Brock party last week through a couple of interceptions because he's going to have to

It's going to have to push the ball into places he doesn't want to And Philadelphia should be ashamed of themselves like just the the offense of execution was a complete joke for them And they couldn't really effectively consistently run the ball against San Francisco and they get a win there This one reminded me a little bit of when the Giants beat the Vikings where you're like man That is a Vikings loss. more than it is a Giants win. And then the next week, they went to Philadelphia and got killed. This feels like as hard as you could have it, you fly all the way across the country.

You play on, do they play on a Sunday? And then you got to come back and play on a Saturday. I mean, my goodness. And that's well Seattle has just been getting back to 100% health. And I think Seattle's coaching is good too. So you have Brock Purdy at 230.5. I think that's probably higher. And Sam Darnal, 237.

point five, which I would go lower on that. I think I agree. How is Seattle going to score? I mean, they can, Smith and Jigba has been a beast, and they get their points. These teams met in week 17, wasn't it? Or week 18. 18. 18.

And the final score might have been 13 to 3. So total here are 44 and a half. That's 25 points-ish for the Seahawks in this game. It's a pretty good total. And I'm curious to try to identify. how it is that they get there. They're confusing, or not confusing,

they're a little bit frustrating at running back as a fantasy player because it was just both guys, Walker, Charbonnet. Charbonnet got more of the goal line stuff over the course of the season, so I'd probably lean that way, but Walker is maybe better

and more touches in a game. That is a tough one. I would be on Seattle minus seven. I feel like that's a lot of respect that they get. It reminds me of the Ravens a little bit where spreads are I'm not really, wow, the betting market is really high on this team.

So Seattle also with the week off, playing at home, it's tough. Like if you draw the one seed, no matter who you are, you're almost definitely playing on Saturday next week. Yep. To try to neutralize that advantage a little bit. Like the Monday night winner was not going to play on Saturday. We knew that. Houston is going to play on something. Give as much time to them as they can get.

man, Purdy is impressive. I feel like this guy is always kind of showing up in big spots. But I like the Seahawks, I think, minus the seven. Purdy is, if I could just maybe put whatever is in Purdy in Justin Herbert, like the natural, I'm going to make a play, I'm going to do something special here, he's got that. And I think maybe you might have compared him a little bit to Doug Flutie at one point. And it feels like the same thing, only like better as a, as a peer passer.

But he has to throw everything with anticipation because he doesn't have the arm strength. He can't do what Josh can do, which is just be like, oh, someone's open. Let me throw it a thousand miles an hour right into it and stick it in their helmet. That's not something he can do. And with these corners and the pressure they can put on him, he's going to have to get rid of the ball quick, which to me says there's going to be some struggles there. If Pearsall's not playing and then they don't have George Kittle, You're throwing a lot to the running back. This team tracks these guys down.

I mean, oh my gosh, Nick Eman Warray is one of the craziest human beings to watch play football because he's 6-4, but he runs like he's about 5'9. And the other factor for Seattle, you ask about how they're going to score. To me, I looked at the week 18 PFF grades and one of them stood out. Gray's able, their rookie, had a 91.6 run blocking grade. they plowed them. And I think that that's where Clint Kubiak, you know, the Kubiak tree, they in that game, they were just like, well, let's just keep running. And then Sam will get us a play or two.

So I think for this one, if I was looking at Seattle, the rushing props, Kenneth Walker is 58 and a half and Charbonnet's 46 and a half. I mean, I don't know which one of those guys to go with. It's kind of like who breaks a big run there. But probably this, this to me says Kenneth Walker. This says Kenneth Walker all day long. And Christian McCaffrey's at 54.5, which I think tells you that the expectation is Seattle's going to be able to stop their run game. Yeah, I agree with everything there.

And I think I would play, if I were to play it, Walker over and then Charbonne a touchdown. I think that would be. Oh, sure, yeah. You know, maybe because it's going to be both guys. A stealer, oh, touchdown. Joanne Jennings is their highest wide receiver. Let's go. At 40.

Don't call the comeback. Who are you? Who are you taking on this? one. Seattle minus seven. Yeah. That is, it reminds me the Ravens, like I said, where it's like, okay, wow, maybe they're really good. They did just beat this. I don't like for betting purposes that we just saw this game and Seattle won pretty decisively on the road because that means it's a little bit of a knee jerk maybe to think that they would just do that again. That's hard to do. Shanahan's good, but I think a lot of factors point Seattle. Yeah. Let's go to the Sunday games.

we got the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots. And just as I've been talking here, C.J. Stroud fumbled three times. C.J. Stroud in that game, I just, I don't know what happened. There were decisions with the ball that were downright bizarre. You needed a Trent Dilfer Ravens quarterback in that game. And it felt like at times he was trying to play hero.

At times he couldn't take the snap. I don't know. I mean, this is a guy who's been in playoff games before. I'm not sure what happened there. And then the Nico Collins injury is really significant as well. And boy, every week we could do a whole show on, hey, the NFL put this guy back on the field after he had clearly suffered a concussion. And then he suffered another one.

That's been a theme of the show throughout the year. C.J. Strouds at 209.5 and Drake May at 220.5. What are your impressions there? Yeah, I agree your sensibilities on Collins. Like that was one where they go to Lisa Salters and like, yeah, he didn't really know which way to walk when he got up on that one. There was no there was no masking that. And that would probably, I don't know as we record this, it would probably make him unlikely to play in this game. But I think the Chargers, you know, starting with Herbert got intimidated.

They got spooked by New England. I mean, Riebel is a presence. He intimidates officials. He's just somebody that, you know, he's kind of. of a bully looking guy, you know, I think whatever that means to Sunday's result, I don't know, but the Chargers just did not perform in that game. I just don't see that happening to the Texans, starting with their defense. I like Houston in the game. That was just another incredible showing. I wanted to avoid, how did this work out for me? I wanted to avoid Houston's defense as a play

last week because Rogers will throw the ball so fast. You may have said it. in our conversation, and just he doesn't really turn the ball over, but what happened, two touchdowns in the second half by the Houston defense. Like, they're probably the optimal, especially with Collins out, because that busted in fantasy, you know, already. The defense is the play that you needed in these lineups that we did. Much respect for the Patriots. I mean, great season, pretty easy schedule,

and the Chargers did not give them much of a gain. Talking about Justin Herbert earlier, he needed to score 20 points. and didn't come close to doing that. I don't want to see C.J. Stroud fumble five times again and throw a pick against the Patriots. But I think Woody Marks looked good in that game. That was kind of a surprise, I thought. And I'm vibing with the Houston defense.

I generally agree that if there's going to be a year where some team is going to have average quarterback play and reach the Super Bowl to defense, it's going to be this year. because that would be both Denver and the Texans. And it's usually, you know, we always look at history and how often certain things happen and what's required. But once a decade, there's a team that reaches the Super Bowl just based on having an unreal defense. And it could be this team. Drake May in this game, though, can you avoid Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter is really what it comes down to? And I don't believe they have the tackles to stop those guys. They've got a rookie who's pretty good, but he's not flawless.

And then Morgan Moses on the other side who's like, I don't know, 700 years old and just kind of a journeyman guy going up against DeNeil. And I am very, very familiar with the ways of DeNeil Hunter because he dominated a playoff game once against Drew Brees. And the Vikings won that game. And what he did last week, I mean, he's just getting a lot of one-on-ones. They can't chip on both sides. And the interior is it as a big advantage here. you know, Rankin's getting that touchdown was kind of fun because a fat guy scored a touchdown. Rankin is a great player.

Like he's one of those. They get, they rotate guys in. They took their guys out and their D-line still smashed Pittsburgh's offensive line. That means to me, this comes down to Drake May. Can you run for 50 yards in this game? Can you check it to Trayvion Henderson and have him, or actually it was Ramondi Ray Stevens last week? Can you play simple football sometimes and just get rid of it?

But then yards after. catch are hard to come by against the Texans. I mean, really it's just, does the home field advantage help them enough? And does Drake May make some special stuff happen? And does C.J. Stroud avoid turning the ball over. Those are the factors for me. Yeah. I just, that was a lot for Houston to win in Pittsburgh like that.

I mean, to go on the road and really dominate. So I doubt they'll be, you know, distracted by playing in Foxborough. And, I mean, just for May, talking about vibes. Like he's got so, it's just, he's great, you know, and he's had this great season in his second year. And I think I've, Fanduil told me while you were talking that I've been logged in for 30 minutes and have not placed a wager yet. I think they want to see if I'm okay. So I'm just going to play May under right now. Okay.

I think they'll just be, maybe the public will just be on Drake May because of the season he's had, chance at the MVP. And I'm going to, I'm going to go Texans. Stefan Diggs, huge in this game. 48 and a half is his over under. This is a guy who is known for his ability to get open in short area. And when he left Buffalo, the last playoff game, there's a deep ball drop, which is a catch that Diggs usually makes, but it's sort of like the lasting memory of him just disappearing in the second half of that game.

There could be, I think, a lot of pressure on him in this game. versus a team that has great defensive backs, physical defensive backs. I like the Texans in this game as well, but I also tend to pick the better quarterback. So I think I'll probably go with New England just because I feel like it's always a better play to go better quarterback and go Drake May. But, you know, I mean, you got to, in terms of the line being minus three, you'd have to win by, you know, more than a field goal, which I don't know that they can do. This one feels like a 19 to 16 somehow type of football game.

But I'm really, really excited for that one. Yep. Interesting that Austin Hooper is the first name on the list there, player receiving yards in this game at 10 and a half. I think I'm going to pass on that. But yeah, Diggs, I mean, his revenge game, I guess, against Houston. He, it did not end well in Buffalo. And I met long when you talked about and they're lost to Kansas City at home two years ago,

even gives Josh Allen the, like put it here next time, son. And Diggs had done that before in the Bengals playoff loss, actually, on the, like the first drive he did that. And then the game ends and he's sort of screaming at Allen on the sideline, kind of ugly. But I'm not going to be putting U.S. dollars on Stefan Diggs. That's a good idea, I would say. All right.

Last game of the week. This is, I mean, every one of these has their fascinations. It's the divisional round. in the NFL, man. But this one, this one is the trickiest one to figure out for me. Because we've been talking about Chicago all year long. There are three and a half point underdog. And the reason there are three and a half point underdog is because of the stuff we've been talking about,

which is they can't keep getting away with this. And they keep getting away with this. The Rams feel like the team that's going to say, no more getting away with this. But at the same time, the Rams, you got the Stafford hand, injury and they were just very human against the Carolina Panthers. And I will continue to wonder if the Panthers mixed in a blitz at the end of the game, if maybe they walk away with a shocking upset. Matthew Stafford for this game, 267.5.

So as the expectation of the biggest passing day. I think the Rams should crush them, like based on what these two teams have been this season on paper beyond just win-loss record. But the Rams, they give you a lot to think about. Like, are they going to fumble three kickoffs and have their kicker doink two kicks or something? Like, it just feels like they are not the same team now as they were six weeks ago. Yeah, that's, I think, maybe the challenge is to figure out if that's the case. Because it is the NFL and there's so much variance with almost everybody.

I like the bears with the three and a half at home in this game. We're talking about a game in the single digits, it seems, in Chicago. not that the Rams, I'm not going to say they can't win a game like that, but I don't love, you know, giving three and a half in that spot. What Loveland, or rather, what Williams did with Colston Loveland and Luther Burden last week, I mean, even, yes, they were way behind in the game. It did happen, and I thought that was super impressive. I think Williams is really improving, really growing,

and this is such great experience for him. So I'll be on Chicago. I think the Loveland thing is pretty much like, There. It's established. He has become a go-to player for them, kind of like Parker Washington did, not as a tight end, but as a receiver for Jacksonville late in the season. So I'd be looking over on Loveland and maybe on Williams, too. I'm not too excited to go over that high number on Stafford in a super cold game. Loveland at 55.5 here on Fandul, and I would think over here, it feels like the secondary for the Rams has been a little bit of their Achilles heel lately. You know, Bryce Young found some receivers in that game. We saw Kirk find some receivers against them when they played Seattle, when they needed big

moment stops against Sam Darnold. They had guys open in that game. So, you know, I feel like that's going to be the case here. to me it comes down to with Caleb Williams, can you start the game playing like you end the game? Because when you get into a situation where teams are trying to play and the saying prevent defense prevents you from winning, it doesn't really bear out, you know, statistically. Like it doesn't really. But I think it prevents you from winning against Caleb Williams. if you can kind of sit back and you don't pressure him and you don't get to him and you don't

throw complicated stuff at him, he will just scramble around fine receivers and make plays. But he has to come out in the first 15 plays, the scripted plays, and score a touchdown or two right away kind of hit Los Angeles, I think, in the mouth from the outset here. But I'll be really interested how the weather potentially impacts the downfield passing of Matthew Stafford, because that's where that's, that's the Rams. It's their D-line and it's their downfield passing. And if there's any struggles there or it's a tight hamstring from Devante Adams or something like that, then they're just a different football team.

And I don't think that they can win multiple ways. I think they have one way of winning, which is Stafford to Adams and Dekua, and that is it. Interesting. Well, as cold as it might be, there's Puka at 98.5 over under. What a number. And what a start to the playoffs and our fans. tournaments with the game Nakua had. I mean, he was at 30 fantasy points, like early in that game against Carolina. 72% of teams in our tournament drafted Dakua, maybe even a little bit

surprisingly low, but they had Devante Adams too. And by the way, talking about Houston earlier, Nico Collins was the third highest-owned receiver at 52%. I did not expect that. That that is from Fantasy Mojo, who tracks all of these ownership percentages. is for FFPC. Yeah, I mean, it's the divisional round. It should be good games. There often is going to be one where the spread is more than a touchdown, though. Some dom-up.

The one-seeds, you know, Denver barely even being favored as a one with historically how much of an advantage there is in the by week. Used to be two teams. Now it's only one per conference. Seattle is getting that respect at seven. I guess that's the one game. That's the exception here. I was looking at the look ahead lines for the four potential AFC championship games,

and the highest spread was one and a half down a while against Houston. So whoever wins in the AFC, at least, it's going to be a really close-looking matchup. But I like the bears on the points here a little bit reluctantly because I guess I'm going with sort of narrative stuff on the weather and that. I just really love how Williams has come along. I'm going bigger sample on the Rams and who they are. If you go statistically speaking, it's them in Seattle and the rest of the NFC all year long. And I don't want to overreact to, well, they looked flawed in this game. They look flawed in that game.

I did wonder if the Seattle game kind of broke them a little. It felt like even McVeigh just immediately firing a coach was a bit of an overreaction to one law. that they were really upset about. Not that the Vikings would ever overreact to one loss and then maybe move on from their quarterback or anything. But, you know, so I tend to think that the Rams, who they really are, is that strong of a Super Bowl contender. Well, if anybody is longing for more action, as I are your fantasy stalwart here on the team, am inclined to point out, the FFPC does.

have a second round tournament where you're drafting from the eight teams that are left. So you can dive back in if you want or if you missed out last week and want to try that. That's at myfBC.com. Of course, Fandul also has all kinds of action. So you shouldn't

go longing. But I did want to mention that you can just sort of start over if last week didn't break your way. And it feels like we maybe need to considering how we did. Mike Scho, ADP chasing WGR 550,

have fun with this Broncos and Bill's game. It's not really possible in a playoff game to have fun until it's over when the team wins. It's just pure stress the rest of the way, I imagine, for the entire city. I live for it. I mean, this is like in the old NFL films. This is while you run all those laps.

I mean, this is what it's about. Apologies, by the way, if it was noisy here. It's a snow day in Grand Island. So everybody's home. We got a dog, a bird. wife's homeworking, kids playing games. I mean, if it was loud, I apologize. There was a little barking, but you got that dog in you,

so you worked your way through it. No issues here. Thanks again, Mike, and we'll talk to you next week. Thank you.