Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Panthers reporter talks Thielen's fit with JJ McCarthy (Part 1)

Episode Date: August 30, 2025

Matthew Coller talks with Carolina Observer's Mike Kaye about why Carolina traded Adam Thielen and how he will work with a young QB. Plus the Micah Parsons contract details are craaaazy. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here and got a special interview for you with Carolina Panthers reporter, Mike Kay, who I've probably mentioned on the show a good 15 times over the last couple of weeks in regards to his reporting on Adam Thielen. So that is coming up in just a second. And then after we hear from Mike Kay, I've got Michael. Clay. So I've got Mike Kay and Mike Clay from ESPN's projections on Adam Thielen. If you guys follow the fantasy football world, Mike Clay does an incredible job of keeping up with every single depth chart in the NFL and projections for every single player, which is wild. If you go to just type in Mike Clay ESPN projections or PDF and what will come up is he's got everybody. He's got how many catches we think that Ben Euresec is going to have or how many tackles Elijah Williams going to have. It's a great thing that he keeps running all the time.

And so I had checked in with Mike earlier this offseason to talk about J.J. McCarthy projections. And I wanted to circle back after camp what he thinks of where Adam Thielen will finish up the season in terms of receptions, what that will mean for the rest of the offense. So I've got Mike Clay's projections. and then also Micah Parsons contract details, which we talked about a little bit last night of what's this going to look like

when you make Micah Parsons the highest paid player at his position in the NFL, highest paid non-quarterback. And the details, I think, are very, very interesting and a little bit non-packers-like. So that's going to come up later in the show as well. And let me get you also the Fandul question of the day before Mike Kay. which is, all right, I'm sure you're shocked to hear this, but Micah Parsons is the favorite on Fandul for defensive player of the year.

If it is not Micah Parsons, who wins defensive player of the year? So, Micah Parsons, yep, is the favorite after yesterday for DPOY. If it's not him, then who would be your vote for most likely defensive player of the year? fan duel right now plus 500 for parsons i won't give you the rest of name so you can just take your guesses as well and hey if you got a viking in there that would be interesting but we're also going to look at mike clay's projections for the defense as well again after mike k i didn't even think about that when i put together the show but here is my conversation diving deep into the adam thieland trade and whether thelan still has something left in the tank

with Charlotte Observer reporter Mike Kay. All right, we welcome into the show, a guy that I've been a big fan of his work for some time, but have never had a reason to get you on. Mike Kay, who covers the Carolina Panthers for the Charlotte Observer. But now I do, Mike. I have been following your training camp coverage, kind of on a daily basis here,

because I've been on Thielen Watch 2025, and eventually that trade got done. But I was looking for Hunter Renfrey. updates and what are the young wide receivers doing and is this a realistic possibility? And I got to say, Mike, you did a really good job this summer covering the Carolina Panthers. And eventually the trade got done between the Vikings and Panthers to send Adam Thielen here. So I want to get your perspective. And where I'd really like to start is Adam Thielan, the player. And then we can get into the two front offices and the negotiation, all that sort of stuff. But I'm going to tell you a deep dark.

secret. I haven't watched a ton of Carolina Panthers football over the last two years. I look at the numbers. I look at the data and I see that Adam Thielen's numbers are still pretty solid. And especially for somebody in his mid-30s, those numbers are good. And I couldn't find too many other available receivers with those types of numbers. But what is Adam Thielen after watching him in this training camp in last year? What does he have left in the tank? Well, it felt like he was kind of like he took a step back in training camp not like from a talent perspective or production standpoint it just kind of felt like he was there you know what I mean it wasn't like he was making the plays that he normally did seem like they gave the young guys a lot of run and

maybe that was like part of like the you know offloading sort of or unloading whatever they call it nowadays it's all in rage um pardon me for being exhaustive did, but training camp has kind of rotted my brain. Listen, this guy in his first year, with a team that couldn't do anything, has the worst record in the history of the 17-game season, had 100-catch,000-yard season. Probably should have made the Pro Bowl. He was the only thing that really worked on a consistent basis. Last year, they draft Xavier Leggett, tried to make him the focal point after Deonté

Johnson leaves in like a blaze and then goes on one of the most nomadic journeys we've ever seen in a season. But during that time where Deonte's gone and Legate's ascending in the lineup, Phelan suffers a hamstring injury after making a touchdown catch against Las Vegas and is out for, I believe it was seven games. And this offense was tough. And Shail and Coker, the Internet's favorite wide receiver stepped up and did well. But for the most part, with Leggett playing X and Coker playing Z in the slot, where Adam normally is, you kind of saw the difference. I think Adam's extremely dependable. What his greatest strength is, is you know where he's going to be at all points.

You can rely on him. He's not the fastest. He's not the most imposing. He's not the biggest wide receiver. But he's so technically sound. And it's like, when we talk about a 35-year-old wide receiver, he has the traits that don't drop off in production because he is so technically sound, right? Like, yeah, he could, he could lose a step. Yeah, he might not play to his size.

He's always going to play to his technique. And I think that's kind of why he is such a valuable asset still to this day. When I think of the receivers who have continued to thrive into their 30s, it's always. the technicians. It's always the Bolden. It's always the Larry Fitz, the, not to compare him to Jerry Rice, but Jerry Rice at age 35 plus was still getting open, even though there's no way he was as fast as he once was because he was a great route runner and had great hands. And when I look at Thielen and all of his numbers, the completion percentage for Bryce was extremely, extremely high when throwing to Adam Thielen. And I asked Adam about Bryce and what he kind of learned from that

experience and he kind of took it a different direction. It was a little bit defensive of Bryce. Like, hey, you guys don't know what that guy's gone through over the last couple years with the coaching change and the overhaul of the wide receiver room and everything else. But when I make the connection here, it makes sense in my brain that Bryce Young coming into the league is a first time starter having a lot of success throwing to Adam Thielen and then J.J. McCarthy going through the same thing.

So what was that connection like between those two guys? Well, I think he was the only guy that Bryce could really rely on in year one. And in year two, he became kind of like the Travis Kelsey for Patrick Mahomes. If somebody was going to catch the ball in a, you know, in a situation where it was, like, you needed to have it, it was going to be Adam Thielen or no one. And I think Thielen was so good for all the young guys. He even took them all to Minnesota this past office. season. It wasn't just Bryce who benefited from him. Jalen Coker learned how to be a pro from him. Xavier Leggett probably refined his route running nuances because of him. And I think

you know, Bryce and Adam won less than 10 games together. But I think when he looks back on his career and he said this the other day, he couldn't think of a guy, a veteran player that he could throw to that he'd want more or value more. And I think that's going to be Thielen's legacy on the field in Carolina is that he was the, if Bryce continues to ascend, the guy that, that lit the match was Adam Thielen. Was there a downfield element to him left last year? Because when I look at his statistics, that 2023 season seemed like it was basically a tight end that he was playing, averaging under 10 yards per catch.

But then last year, there's almost 13 yards per reception, which isn't far off from where Adam Thielen was in his prime. And I don't expect him to be Jordan Addison. I don't expect him to be, you know, the next grade deep threat for the Minnesota Vikings. But is, is that element still there? I mean, he's not running like slot goes or, I mean, he can still run a sluggo. Like there's, there, there is like he can get deep. I think he has to win very early in his route to kind of benefit from that.

But, yeah, he's still crafty. He can get open down the field. He'll run a post route every now and then. But, like, I think what's been good for him is Bryce is very, very good at throwing to slants. Very, very good. And he can set you up for yards after the catch. I think that's why they feel very good about Xavier Leggett returning to the Z spot because he's going to be able to.

you know, not deal with press and then go. And I think there have been times, like, I believe the touchdown that he got injured on, Andy Dalton threw him like a flare down the, down the scene. So, like, he's got it in him. I just don't know how consistent that would be. I think if you're going to put him at the Z position, he's probably not going to get as open as he would in the slot down the field.

because he understands spacing so well. So it's like, I kind of compare him to Kyle Schwerber of the Phillies. So Schwerber's always been known as this like kind of one-beat, you know, home run hitter. And what he's done this year is refine his swing so that he can hit doubles and singles and become a more complete, I think Phelan's done that over his career. And I think it's revived his versatility. okay i thought where's he going with this connection uh after johan duran like maybe that's where i was

trying to go but it just i mean he's blown to two of his last three saves but whatever you know well the day after schwarber hits four home runs and then if i saw correctly did not hit a home run when a position player was pitching so that's weird it was it was brutal yeah baseball is still baseball still weird uh when it comes to this trade in general why were the panthers willing to do it because I think that that was a question that came up a lot with Vikings fans. And I'll tell you the truth, when this first started percolating a little bit, my take was, I don't know if the Panthers should get rid of Adam Thielen because of all the things that you just said about the connection with Bryce and their young wide receivers, Teteroa McMillan has never

play in the NFL before. Legate, not exactly proven. Coker, I don't know if he's an internet invention, but it seems like they like him a lot over there, Carolina. I mean, of those guys, though, have the history that Adam Thielen has. And when I look at the Panthers from a bigger picture perspective, I see them as being a year away, probably roster wise from a team that can actually really contend. But I also think that this year, they need to find out a lot about Bryce Young. And they need to be in the playoff race. They need to be winning nine or 10 games in that division and making some noise there to show the progress with a number one draft pick overall quarterback. So moving on from one of his favorite targets doesn't quite compute. So what was

their thinking and moving on from Thielen? I think this was a special case. And Dan Morgan kind of alluded to this that he wouldn't have done this for somebody just randomly. I think, you know, the Vikings approach to them. I remember tweeting out makes you think when it was first reported that he was going to, I mean, that the Vikings were going to look for wide receiver help. I thought, you know, they've crowded this room with, as you've mentioned, two back-to-back first-round picks at wide receiver, Jalen Coker, who's an ascending player, Jimmy Horn Jr., who they're going to struggle to get on the field even after trading, Phelan, but that guy's got speed for days. I think, you know, you get to this point where he's the mentor in the room, but how much, like,

How much more can you learn from the one guy, I guess, in the same environment? And I think from the Panthers perspective, this team, like you said, is probably not contending until 2026, 2027. So what that means is, while you've got these wide receivers cheap, they need to play. Like, they need to develop because here's what's going to happen if you keep Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen's going to still play, you know, 85 to 90 percent of the snaps. and that's going to stunt the development most likely of Horn and Coker at the least, potentially even Legate. And then by the time you get to 2026, 2027, you're in the middle of development for a wide

receiver who, despite being drafted last year, is older than Bryce Young. And so I think like from their perspective, one, they saved $7 million. They didn't have to take on any of the salary, which made this deal. palatable. They get improved depth for, or they get improved value for the draft picks two years after his original three year contract is set to expire. Chances are that fourth round pick in 2027 will not touch the field until Adam Thieland's either retired or irrelevant. And so like, you're extending the value of Thielen. I don't think this is a slam dunk by any means. And I don't think the Panthers think that way either. I don't think they're out there like, you know,

throwing Brant Tillis a party for these negotiations. But I'd also say like when you have someone like Eric Eager and you have someone like Brant Tillis who are so analytically driven, it makes a ton of sense from the front office perspective. You can roll over that $7 million. They just signed Taylor Moten to a long-term extension. His salary cap stuff's going to drop. So you can roll over his cap to actually pay part of that next year. it makes sense i think from a coaching standpoint you're going to miss adam feeling pretty greatly

but at some point you know he's not going to play on special teams he hasn't played on special teams in what like 10 years right you're not going to make if you have a fourth wide receiver or a third wide receiver who's not playing on special teams in this day and age especially with that roster and how many wide receivers they kept they kept seven um i just it made sense like Like, it was a, it was a changing of the garden away. And I also think, look, I mean, you've also got to teach Bryce new habits. He's got to learn new habits. It can't just be like, here's, here, we're just going to throw a, you know, an eight-yard

comeback, like, that you can't, like, because Adam is just going to sit in zone and be like, you know what I mean? Like, you can't just do that. And the offense isn't going to grow and evolve. And I think it's going to be a tough loss initially. I think the first four games we're going to see it. Like specifically in Arizona in week two, I think that that game's going to be very close. And they're going to have a moment where you're going to be like, yeah, you wish you had dealing here.

But I think long term, the deal makes a lot of sense for that. I mean, all those things that you're describing, I mean, the Vikings are a year or two ahead of Carolina in their timeline. And their quarterback needs exactly what you're saying. I mean, you know Justin Jefferson is going to be double covered. you know he's going to be downfield. It's sometimes it's funny because even though Justin Jefferson can make every quarterback look better, the throws are not always the easiest thing in the world because there's so much coverage dedicated to him and sometimes you have to rip it through a tight window

or sometimes you have to just toss it up to him. And I think what any young quarterback needs and J.J. McCarthy could really take advantage of this is easy buckets. Just keep a drive going. Just get seven yards on second down and six and move drives and have a possession wide receiver, that's something that they really didn't have because Addison to me is more of a downfield receiver. Jalen Naylor is more of a downfield receiver. So it's kind of just Hawkinson and then Josh Oliver and then the running backs as being guys to throw underneath to. So I think that's really helpful. And it does answer the question of like, was this because they thought he was washed or was this because they thought

the room was probably better off to move forward. It sounds like better off to move forward. In terms of the negotiations, I will say this, that number one, the Vikings got a fifth round pick for Sam Howell. So I think that that helps a lot in this conversation. Sam Howell never played a game for the Minnesota Vikings and they got a free fifth round draft pick. So I think that that smooths it over a little bit. I also think too that these front offices, I'm sure, have their own little wins and losses categories. I'm sure that the internet with their Rich Hill draft charts and everything else. They love to add it up and say it was worth this.

It was worth that or whatever. At the end of the day, what the Vikings needed with their situation was Adam Thieland. And what the Panthers benefited from was a pretty good bevy of draft picks with a fifth rounder and to move down. But let's not lose perspective. This is just how I view this. Like, let's not lose perspective on what a fourth, fifth pick swap really is. I mean, let's go through the Vikings fourth and fifth round draft picks.

Actually, they got, their best pick was in the fifth, and it was Stefan Diggs. And since then, it's been 10 years. I don't think they've gotten anything out of a fifth round draft pick. So sometimes I think we do a little bit too much of that, a little bit too much of like, let's put this thing under a microscope and get down to the finest decimal. And the Panthers won the trade. Like, of course they did because the Vikings were in a position where they had to do this. They needed it.

But also they have someone who's going to be more helpful to them than Carolina. That's how I have viewed it. How have you looked at it? I mean, I've seen the Vikings graphics over the last four years. I mean, what I would say is I think Thielen is the ideal guy for JJ to kind of develop. We saw what he did with Bryce. I think what he did with Bryce should be what every team looks for that is developing a quarterback who is starting week one. And look, JJ didn't play last year.

So we'll count this as his rookie season. This is going to be his first year where he goes through the off season and does all that stuff and plays on week one. Adam Thielen is the absolute perfect guy for that. Do I think, you know, this was the cleanest trade for them? No. But clean doesn't always mean success, right? I also think, you know, this trade for the Panthers beats the norm, right? They're not trading Brian Burns or Christian McCaffrey for a can of magic beans.

They're trading an asset which, as good as he is, is depreciated, expiring because of his contract, not because of life. He's got a lot of life in him. Yes. We know that. I remember talking to a Vikings writer before he got to Carolina. and they said he is one of the best trash talkers you will ever see, but you'll never do it. And I went up to him and I said, hey, so I hear your great trash talker and he just smiled like he beamed. I think, you know, from the panther's perspective, you know, you have to look at what

you're doing long term. And I think that's been the big thing with Morgan and Tillis and eager. And so from a practical standpoint, saving $7 million is the win because they went out of out of their way and gave Thielin a pretty unusual raise before this season when he decided to come back. And the guy has talked about retirement the last two years. So you're saying to yourself, well, if he retires after this year or doesn't resign, how does that help us for the future beyond what he's given the kids in the room? And so to me, now the guy, the young guys have the knowledge, but you also have improved picks on day three, like legitimate day three picks. These are not six and seventh round picks. Analytically, six and seventh round picks aren't

really worth anything. But if you can get a fourth round, a fifth round pick, like, they love their fourth round picks this year, like, love them. And I think for, for Dan Morgan, who is very scout-driven, and very football-oriented, loves to scout. He's a scout at heart. This is an opportunity for him. I think for Eager and Tillis, this is an opportunity to save money, enhance value, and move forward.

So I think, as Dan Morgan said, I know I'm kind of rambling here, I think it's a win for both sides. I really do. I think there is a part of the fan base that's like, oh, great, you're trading like the one dependable wide receiver. and then you want to be like, well, sweetheart, they won seven games together. Like, Adam Thielen won seven games in Carolina.

Actually, I can't remember if he was in the Giants game in Germany or not. What a game it was, though. Right. Oh, man, it was, what an experience. There was just a lot that happened in that game. But, like, let's say they want a handful of games together because of the injury. Like, you know, it's cool to have a guy who's productive, but when those stats don't lead to wins, it's, you know, there's justification in saying, like, let's make sure our margins are correct. I think the Vikings are going to benefit tremendously from Adam Thielen. It might just be a one-year thing. Maybe it's a two-year thing. But, like, from a hypothetical standpoint, the Panthers couldn't just sit and wait for him to plan, you know, hold out and retire or think about retirement for three months. And then, then developed their plans around him.

That's just not good business. And so I think, you know, seeing McMillan and all these other guys ascend in camp, and they did, they all flashed, it gives you kind of the vote of confidence to go with those guys. I also think that if you were the Panthers and let's say that you're three and three at the deadline or whatever, three and four, and you're looking around going, what could we get something for and maybe feeling hadn't been as good or as productive or had been. push down the depth chart a little, what are you actually getting for that? I mean, are you getting a conditional seventh round pick or something at the trade

deadline? So this was a good time for them to do it, fits with both teams timelines, fits with what both teams need. And to me, even if the Vikings slightly overpaid, I think that it still just works for everybody. Now, I have to go back, though, because you've mentioned Eric Eager a few times. And Eric is in my book about PFF and was a many time guest of this show. You made it seem like he's part of kind of a power triumvirate there or something. I'm interested in what his role, because he's actually a Minnesotan, by the way, one of us. So I'm curious about what his role has become because it seems like the Carolina Panthers two years ago when Thielen first got there were the bleep show at the century.

And then they go make a hire from Kansas City and have seemingly tried to be a much more analytical. They also hired another former guest of this show, Ben Brown, as well for their analytics department. Is Carolina now suddenly cutting edge in the National Football League? Well, so I pin this on my, on my Twitter or my ex page, whatever you want to call it. I did a story about how Eager and Tillis and their analytical department analytics department basically help map out stuff for the offseason, help them make free agency decisions, help them, you know, if you remember in the draft, they made two tradeups on day two that were pretty unique pick swaps. They're just very forward thinking. I think Eager's doing a really good job. And, you know, this isn't my

original reporting, but Dan Morgan went on radio yesterday and said he, he Tillis and Eager kicked around like 10 scenarios before this trade was accomplished. And I think Eager, his voice is being heard. I think Tillis has a lot of respect. for him. I think Morgan has a lot of respect for him. I think that's one of the spots where I would give Morgan a lot of credit. He knows that he doesn't have to be the smartest guy in the room and he knows that he has hired people under him who can help him be better. Like, you know, you're only as good as your team, right? And so I think that's kind of the model that they've had. They're not taking swings that they have not thought about, you know, before the at bat. And I think, I think Eager's been a really good addition to this. I mean, I don't want to, I don't want to overstate his value, but like,

it's very clear that Dan feels that he can trust Eric's, you know, projections and ability to, you know, calculate odds. I mean, like, handle the odds. And so, like, I like to call him and tell us the calculator commandos. I don't even know if they even use a calculator, but like, I want to just make myself laugh. But I do think those guys have really helped Dan Morgan and And if you want to read all about it, you can check it out on my Twitter page at Mike underscore E underscore K. It's pin there. That's all you have to do.

You just look there. You'll see Dan Morgan's face, click on it, boom. But I really enjoy doing that story. And I do think that analytics has really played a key role in the Panthers decisions this year. Yeah, it's so interesting. Well, one, how much a leadership can change an entire franchise, that's for sure. And, you know, getting a general manager, or I'm sorry, what is Brayor?

Trantellis, is he president? So he's the number two, basically, but he's, instead of being called an assistant general manager, he's the EVP of football operations. Oh, okay, EVP of football operations, but getting someone from Kansas City, they beg for them and having improved leadership has just changed. I think the reputation of the Panthers over the last just very short amount of time from even when you got there and started, well, it was right before Matt Rule got fired, right? Yeah, I was there for 10 days of Matt Rule.

So I left Philly in March of 22 and was covering the entire league. And then the observer hired me because I missed beatwriting. And I got there in September of 22. And today, as camp ends and all this madness ends, you're not thrilled about the beatwriting. But you'll, you'll rally. Well, I love it. It's not good to me. It's not good.

Yeah. I know how it could be sometimes. Well, my book, football is a numbers game. I profile Eric in the book as somebody who came from a math teacher to when he was with PFF was influential in the NFL behind the scenes. And then, you know, that's why he ultimately ended up being hired by the Panthers. So it's been interesting to watch his journey because the first time he came on as a guest on my show was 2016.

So he wasn't even full time at PFF yet at that point. And now, like, you're talking about him here in this interview. It's pretty crazy to see. That's the success of guests of the Purple Insider show, Mike. So maybe, maybe, I don't know, you're doing great anyway. You're doing awesome work for the Charlotte Observer, but just good karma for you for coming on the show. Great insight into Adam Thielen in this trade. Awesome work during training camp.

And because I enjoyed it, I will continue to read the Charlotte Observer, even if the Vikings and Panthers have nothing to do with each other. So great stuff, man. I really appreciate all your time. Thanks for having me. Guys, if you watch the show all the time, you know that I'm a hat guy, but if you're wearing hats to cover up for your hair loss, then I've got something that can help you. It's called Hymns. If you've lost your hair, that doesn't mean you can't find it again. Try Hymns hair loss solutions, and you'll be joining hundreds of thousands of subscribers who have found their hair again. Hymns makes treating hair simple with clinically proven ingredients that can regrow hair in as little as three to six months. Choose from personalized, chewable, oral spray, or serum treatments to find what works best for you. The process is simple and 100% online, so there are no uncomfortable doctor visits.

Start your free online visit today at HIMS.com slash purple insider. That's hims.com slash purple insider for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Hym.com slash purple insider. results vary based on studies of topical and oral monoxidil and finestriide prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. Restrictions apply. See the website for full details and important safety information. There you go. Mike Kay, Charlotte Observer, a great conversation. And I would suggest him as a foul on social media and his work.

If you're just interested in every NFL team and what's going on, That's what I try to do is with my social media. I try to just follow other beat reporters around the NFL. Sometimes I steal their feature ideas and I just, you know, need to know what's going on around the league. And Mike is one of the best, so I appreciate that. And it is pretty darn cool to see guys who are former guests of this show. Now working in NFL front offices, although it would have been great to have Eric Eager come back on this show and talk about the Adam Thielen trade. can't do that. So speaking of the Thielen trade, I've got Mike Clay from K to Clay projections for

Adam Thielen for this year and the rest of the Minnesota Vikings offense now that Thelan is in the mix. And don't forget to answer that Fandul question of the day. And I will give you the rundown of who the Fandul odds makers believe has the best chance at winning defensive player of the year. So Micah Parsons is the favorite right now on Fandul. Obviously, after the trade, he's got all the hype. And you also know that he's going to be given 110 and whatever back injury that he had. I saw even Adam Schaefter gave him some snark about the back injury. But the next number of players here who are favorites for defensive player the year, Aidan Hutchinson, T.J. Watt, Miles Garrett, something in common with those three that the Vikings face all four.

of the top guys who are favorites for defensive player of the year. Then Nick Bosa, Jared Verse, Max Crosby, Will Anderson, Jalen Carter, Nick Benito, which is a surprising one, and Trey Hendrickson are the ones that are at the top. And as far as some of you have mentioned, Jonathan Grenard, he and Andrew Van Ginkle are both plus 8,500, right next to DeNeil Hunter, Fred Warner, Chop Robinson, Nolan Smith. So they're down on the list a little bit. We saw last year that their success together kind of took away, I think, a little bit from Jonathan Granard's season, the fact that Andrew Van Ginkle was so good. So from those players, who do you think has the best chance to win defensive player of the year outside of Micah Parsons?

Also, questions, thoughts, comments. I got a few other things to get to here. But this is a pretty open show after you heard from Mike Kay from the Charlotte Observer. I thought just a takeaway from him is what I was curious to hear is did it sound like Adam Thielen still has it and was it as good with him and Bryce Young as it looks on paper? Because sometimes with statistics, we know this and we try to sort through this on the show all the time. What is it really telling us, are these stats telling of the actual performance or is there

context that's required or what like what do we make of that that's actually why i love analytics so much not because i think it just hands me all the answers and then i don't have to do any other work i think it hands me a lot to work with to try to find the answers that are as close to the truth as possible in football so getting mike's perspective where he was saying that one of the reasons to move on from adam thielan is so he doesn't so bryce young doesn't use Thielen as his security blanket going forward and he gets used to throwing to these other wide receivers in Carolina where we're saying J.J. McCarthy, go use Adam Thielen as your security blanket. Throw to Adam Thielen as much as you possibly need to over these first

couple of games. And I thought that the Travis Kelsey, that comparison of what he was for Bryce Young, where it's with Patrick Mahomes, what Kelsey has been for so long. is just a guy that he always knows he can lean on. He can always find space in his own. He can always run a quick hitch. And he's going to get 8, 10, 12 yards. And then Adam Thielen can be that for J.J. McCarthy. I think that's exactly what the Vikings need this year with the other receivers being more

intermediate downfield that they need that type of guy who can move the sticks or get a short completion just to get the offense going. and the connection between Thielen and Young being as strong as it was, well, now we're going on many quarterbacks who have succeeded with Thelan as their wide receiver. I don't think that it's any sort of coincidence that Adam Thelan was good with Sam Bradford, he was good with Case Keenham, he was good with Kirk Cousins, he was good with Bryce Young, and now he comes back with J.J. McCarthy.

So everything that you, I think, would have wanted to hear from a Vikings' perspective from Carolina is what you heard. Not that he had lost it, not that he can't run routes anymore. He can't move. He's done. He's toast. That was not what Mike was saying about where Adam Thielen is, is there. And so I think that bodes well for him. Now, how well is an interesting question because Mike Clay from ESPN, he has continually updated his projections throughout the offseason. And again, if you go over and you look at his projections, even if you just want to know team depth charts, it's great because that's where I go before games to prepare for the other team is I want to see his depth chart and where everybody's at on offense and defense.

So I'm going to put it on the screen now. This is Mike Clay and his projections for the Minnesota Vikings offense and defense for 2025 with camp and preseason in the book. So I want to start with Thielen and then I want to go over some other ones that caught my eye from Mike's projections. So we'll start with Adam Thielen. He has Thielen at 45 receptions for 406 yards and four touchdowns this year, 62 targets. And Jalen Naylor only getting eight targets, or I'm sorry, eight catches on 13 targets. So this is where I would probably not expect it to be that extreme. But the way, that Mike is projecting it is the one, two, three receivers are Jefferson, Addison, and Thielen,

and Jalen Naylor is going to be pushed aside. I don't think that's quite going to be the case, especially if Naylor is healthy for week one. And we're going to find out, as Kevin O'Connell said, there is a injury report that will be put out next week. And we'll get a chance to see the team do their warmups and individual drills. That's what we see during the season when we go out for practice and we'll get a look at how Jalen Naylor looks, but I don't think it's going to be 45 receptions for Thielen and eight for Jalen Naylor. I would guess that Naylor is much more toward 20 and I could see Thelan being at 35 or something, but I also don't think that this is a shocking projection either because Naylor has just not ever really impressed. He had a couple of good

weeks last year, had that really good game against Green Bay when they forgot to cover him. But aside from that, it's just been a lot of okay and stops and starts. This week was really good. The next week he disappears, that kind of thing for Naylor. Some of that is where he fits in the offense, but I think it's also the limitations of being one dimensional. So I would push that number up and I would push Thielen's number down a little bit. But I also think that it wouldn't surprise me if Thelan just became the straight up wide

receiver three and Naylor was only mixing in from time to time. Just to look at Addison and Jefferson, Mike has Addison at 59 catches for 732 yards. That's also pretty fair. Could be a little higher than that. Although if I say every person is going to be higher than J.J. McCarthy would be projected for like 6,000 yards at some point. So he has to have these things add up. And that's what I respect so much about Mike is that he must take forever to get these numbers to add up to what they're supposed to. But 59 catches for 732 yards in 14 games for Jordan Addison would be a fair outcome. And Justin Jefferson, he's got at 1,400 yards, 10 touchdowns.

That I would probably change. I still think in the red zone, it's going to be Jordan Mason. I think it's going to be T.J. Hawkinson, Josh Oliver, Adam Thieland, Jordan Addison. I don't think that Jefferson's ever going to be that guy. And I heard Randy Moss talking about Jefferson and saying, hey, you know, he's like on track to be one of the goats and he's got to get in the end zone a little bit more. I know that Randy Moss was the best at getting in the end zone. I don't think that about Jefferson.

It's kind of a Julio Jones thing where there's just so much attention on that one wide receiver. It's okay to score with other people. Now, a couple of other things that stood out to me on these projections. So what do you guys think? Good outcome. I mean, if the Vikings trade a swap next year and a fifth round pick essentially this year, and they get 45 catches, 400 yards and four touchdowns out of Adam Thielen, that's a pretty darn good trade when they had nothing there otherwise.

So Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, this is where I strongly agree with Mr. Clay. He's got a dead even 50, 50 split between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, 8.6 and 825 yards, 825 for Mason. About the same number of touchdowns, I'd probably change that. I think that Mason will score more rushing touchdowns, 51 receptions for Aaron Jones and three receiving touchdowns for him. I think that split is going to be correct that it will ultimately be about 50-50. As far as the tight ends, Josh Oliver, with only 13 catches, I might bump that up a tad. But T.J. Hawkinson, 80 receptions on 117 targets. I'm going yes with that because I think McCarthy is going to lean on him a lot. And then J.J. McCarthy, he's got 600 pass attempts for

J.J. McCarthy. Man, that would be a lot. But it's not unrealistic in Kevin O'Connell's offense, 4,127 yards, 30 touchdowns. 15 picks to me is high for, I mean, 15 picks put you, at the top of the league for last year. Actually, let me look up, curious, how many was the top interceptions in the league last year? I'm going to check this real quick because 15 seems like a ton of picks in the year 2025. Let me see.

Who led the league last year in INTs? Yeah, last year, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield were the league leaders in interceptions and they had 16. Gino Smith had 15 and the next highest was 12. So I don't think that we're going to see J.J. McCarthy leave the league in picks. And then 44 sacks is a number that I think is way too high. I don't think McCarthy's a guy who gets sacked 44 times. And 231 rushing yards is also, I think, very accurate.

And on the defensive side, how cool is this with this projection? He's all the way down to Chas Chambliss's tackles. You got to love the dedication of this man. The only thing I'm curious about, so he's got Grenard at nine sacks, Dallas Turner at three and a half. That one I might go a little bit higher. 535 snap seems right though. And aside from that, I mean, I think this is pretty good.

I think Harrison Smith is, if he starts, doesn't play the beginning of the season, his numbers will go down snap-wise. But the having Harrison Smith, Josh Mattelis and Theo Jackson, all with very high snap counts. And not so much Jeff Okuda, I think is very good in terms of projections as well.

And I sent Mike a note. I did say, I think that Miles Price is going to be the punt returner. And if it's not Miles Price, then the next punt returner better arrive pretty darn soon because we're only a few days away from the start of the season. So after seeing those projections, 45 catches for Adam Thielen, 4,100 yards for J.J. McCarthy. How do you feel about those projections? William says he must think, Nailor's injury is bad. well, I think that what he's looking at here is probably that Adam Thielen is just a much better

wide receiver over his career than Jalen Naylor. And his expectation is that, well, Nailer's been kind of just a guy throughout his career and that they're going to have Adam Thielen ultimately become wide receiver three. I think that's mostly true. And this is, coaches are like this anyway, where, you know, you ask about, well, what happens when Addison comes back? And it's, well, we've got tons of options. and the other thing. What I didn't hear in the answer was, oh, no, we feel amazing about Jalen

Naylor. We're good there. He's going to be right. And I think that Naylor didn't have the best camp. And then it's unclear what the injury is, but that also could have impacted that, or he might have just not mentioned it. I don't know. But I think that Thielen is just a better player. And so if they feel like he's much more trustworthy out there, he's still having a good season, And the only thing that I could see happening is maybe Adam misses a couple games and Naylor ends up filling in and getting more receptions there. But it would not surprise me really at all if he ended up just taking all of Jalen Naylor's targets. And the other two guys were the deep threats. And maybe, you know, the clear out guy is important in this.

And I don't know if you want Adam Thielen to be the clear out guy. So that'll be a challenge right there for Kevin. O'Connell once Addison gets back of how are you going to mix and match these wide receivers? So I wouldn't put Naylor that low on this as having eight receptions. And I probably wouldn't go quite as high for Adam Thielen. I would be a little more in the 30s. But you're right. Somebody said, you know, wow, 4,000 yards for J.J. McCarthy.

I mean, that, that's a lot. That is a big projection for J.J. McCarthy. That means Mike Clay thinks that they're going to be. doing lots and lots of throwing. I don't think that they quite want that much passing. Blowfish's interception totals are ridiculously low. 1.8 for Byron Murphy. Yeah, I mean, interceptions are so difficult to project. But this defense really does play for the splash play, for the sack, for the pressure, for the takeaway. And he did have six last year. but I remember going through the six, and I think four of them were kind of just thrown right to him.

From year to year, it's always hard with interceptions. And I'm sure that that's the argument is how can you project a player to get five or six picks when usually those things regress? But I agree with you. I'd probably go maybe three or four for Byron Murphy. I didn't really look at that part of it. Let's call that back up. Let me look at the interceptions. I kind of didn't really look at it because the numbers are usually really.

low. Yeah, only totaling as a team. That's an interesting number. Toteling as a team 13 interceptions. That is definitely low for this team. And the way that they play, specifically, they have ball hawking safeties, ball hawking linebackers. Byron Murphy, as you mentioned, I think Rogers plays the football extremely well. I would probably go a little higher for Theo Jackson just because he's Theo Jackson and he always gets the ball. I might go a couple for Blake Cashman. Andrew Van Ginkle is under one interception. We know he's taken back at least two to the house. So, yes, I would go higher on that for interceptions.

13 is still a fair number, but this team plays to steal the ball away. And 44 sacks as a team would be, I think would be pretty darn good for 44 sacks. And you could see with Hargrave and Allen, them totaling around 10 would be okay. I think maybe the expectation is even a little bit higher than that for those guys. but they're also they're also pressure monsters and that's what you're really looking for up the middle uh va viking 33 mccarthy will start the season as an efficient game manager kOC will turn him loose in week seven it really depends on how it goes because if they start out the season saying all right just keep the train on the tracks which i think that you're

right for the general philosophy train on the tracks completions don't take too many risks and game manager is not, COC went on a whole rant one time about game manager being used as an insult, and I totally agree. When a lot of guys who are called game managers win a lot of darn football games, like I think Jared Goff's a game manager

for the most part, and yet wins a ton. I think Tom Brady is the all-time game manager and won more than anybody else, because game manager to me is do the right thing in the right situation over and over and over again. And if you make the right decision, time and time and time again in any sport, you're going to have a lot of success. So make the right decisions is what they're looking for for J.J. McCarthy.

I don't think game manager has to mean, oh, the guy can never make a play. Like, I don't think or never make a great throw. Like if you say Jared Goff is the ultimate game manager, doesn't mean that Jared Goff never rips one 25 yards down the field into a tight window. He absolutely does. But he's normally on a play-to-play basis, just making good choice. with the football, that's what they need J.J. McCarthy to do. And they have emphasized this to him during camp. So that's why I think VA Viking, you're right about that, is they have emphasized

this during camp to him. He said, and this was like a classic, like we're kind of still nervous about a young quarterback type of moment. But when they had the joint practices and the big, everybody gather around situational drill at the end of joint practices is the two minute drive and then practice is over. So they've practiced hard for two days and here's the two minute drive. The Vikings are down by a touchdown on the scoreboard and McCarthy's got to lead a touchdown drive against the Patriots. Off we go here.

Everybody's watching, you know, that kind of thing. Like there's a little, it's cool, right? It's as intense as football gets in the summer. And McCarthy at one point on that drive, threw the ball out of bounds, just had nothing and just sort of tossed it away. And after at the press conference, he said that the play, and he finished that drive was with a great throw to Jordan Addison, the back of the end zone for a touchdown. But he said afterward that the play that Josh McCown loved the most was when he threw it

away because it was the right decision at the right time and it was smart. So there was a little bit of, yes, you want to manage those situations correctly, but always you want to do that. The question for me, though, is if the first game plays, out like we think, which is a little bit more on the low-scoring side. I don't think Caleb Williams is running over the Minnesota Vikings. I don't think that their running game is running over the Minnesota Vikings. Okay, you could see game manage that, get the lead, Jordan Mason time, here you go, long

drives, completions, train on the tracks, couple scrambles. You could see it that way. But the next two weeks after that are hard to game manage. and I will go back to what Sam Darnold did last year against the Atlanta Falcons. Like, that's a team that even with a totally broken Kirk Cousins move the football against the Vikings defense, they're better this year than they were last year. But that was a great defense last year. And still, even Kirk with no arm strength left, with no mobility at all,

throwing balloons into the atmosphere that came down in Byron Murphy or was, yeah, it was Byron Murphy, right, the one-handed interception. and all that sort of stuff that was happening with Kirk Cousins. And still that team was able to score and move the football against the Vikings because they've got a ton of talent. Bejohn Robinson in the backfield, probably poised for his best season or one of his best seasons. I think he's grown.

I think that they have a much better quarterback than they had for last year. Drake London is an excellent wide receiver. They've got a lot to work with there. Now their offensive line is down. Caleb McGarry. That's big for them. But, I mean, they've got a lot to work with there. You're going to have to score points.

And then Cincinnati, you're really going to have score points. Joe Burroughs not walking out of U.S. Bank Stadium with a seven on the board or something. That's just, that's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He is going to score points in that game. So I think it's going to be game to game situation to situation. You can't just game manage your way through a matchup with Joe Burrow. You're going to have to air it out at some point. You're going to have to make plays at some point.

and if he's able to do that, then he can put up 4,000 yards and grow and excel pretty quickly. And we're going to find out if that's something he could do because it's very hard to see some of these games turn into grind fests where you can hand the ball to Jones and Mason 37 times and just win 21 to 17. It's hard to do that in the NFL today anyway, but especially when you're facing a quarterback like that. But you're right, I think that they will manage it sort of slowly with him to

start and ease into it and figure out how much he can handle and what's working and what's not. They are going to run. They are going to run a lot of play action and then take their shots when they're there early on. But I don't think this is a situation where you can just sort of say, all right, like play, play very cautiously, play like a backup quarterback at first. And then in week seven, hit the gas.

I don't think you can really afford to do that in a season like this. Blowfish says McCarthy got good comments from. Thielen, after working out in the summer, Thielen would only come back if he was excited to play with him. I agree. And this was pointed out very smartly by my friend Dane Mizatani when we did the show yesterday, breaking down the press conferences. Dane made a great point.

He said that Thielen was asked, hey, did you have a say in this matter? And Thielen said, oh, no, no. And, you know, I just, you know, I go where I'm going to play, get kind of cliche at him Thelan. And then when he was asked about coming back to play with KOC, he said, well, I wouldn't have come back if it wasn't for KOC and you're like, okay, so it sounds like you kind of did. I mean, if he hadn't wanted to come here and play with McCarthy and play with this team, he could have just retired. Adams made a few dollars during his career. He's at the age

where he doesn't have to keep playing unless he wants to. I think that's a good point that he would only come back here if he really wanted to play with McCarthy. And if he believed in what he saw from McCarthy when they were working out together. And what I liked from Adam Thielen, what I liked what I heard was detail. You know that this is the trick of the trade here as part of my job is to listen to a lot of press conferences and a lot of interviews and try to sort through what's meaningful and what's just kind of chatter, answering questions, like I said, cliches or things like that. And I always look for detail.

So when we ask some coach, hey, what do you think of this player? and he says, you know, I mean, the guy's just got to keep working. We're happy with him. He's got to keep working. That means that maybe not. If that coach says, dude, the way that he does, I'll give you an example, Jonathan Allen, the way that he does that hump move is crazy. The hump move is where you get to the outside shoulder of an offensive lineman with

your right hand outside and then you push back with the left hand. I think you can look it up. but they love this move that Jonathan Allen does. And so the coaches are like, man, that move is crazy and we're loving what he's brain. Then it's like, okay, I'm looking for detail. And when Adam Thielen didn't just say, oh, yeah, you know, I liked working out with J.J. McCarthy.

He said, I really like the way he thinks. And as we were working out and as we were running those routes, he was telling me the why that here's what we do in the system. Here's why we think about this route this way. Here's our thought process. That sort of detail kind of tells me there's a connection there already. And Thielen is just a super football nut. I mean, he loves all of that stuff.

He wouldn't be here if not. He is a technical master of that position. So it seems like there was some legitimate synergy there from the start. And that's going to be tested at the beginning. But if there's anybody that you trust to be ready within two weeks, I mean, Thielen, it kind of reminds me of when T.J. Hawkinson did it. Like, it's not impossible to show up at a team at the last minute. But you got to be, you got to be up there in your football IQ.

Susan says Thelan only played 10 games last season, so they could decide to save him by using Naylor too. Yeah, I agree with that, Susan. I don't, as much as Kevin O'Connell has raved for years about Jalen Naylor, he has liked that guy for a really long time. I don't think that he's just going to straight bench Jalen Naylor for Adam Thielen. It's going to be a much more situational type of thing. And if Thelan does have to miss some games, then you've got Jalen Naylor there as well.

And I guess I would be surprised at this age with, you know, some hamstrings in the past. If there wasn't a single game missed, if he played 17, that would be really darn impressive. But even then, as you said, I don't think. you want him playing 70 plays a game. You want more Josh Oliver, which I would have bumped up Josh Oliver's targets and probably taken a little bit away from feeling there. You want to be able to run a lot of two tight ends. I've got an article that I've been working on and then they keep doing stuff. So I'll have that out on Monday about Josh Oliver and how he remains kind of a secret weapon for them. So I think he is going to end up with more receptions and

maybe feeling a little bit less, and they will use two tight ends. And if you're running Thielen for 30, 35 plays a game, that's really maybe the sweet spot for somebody of his age. Kurt says play action to Mason. If play action, if play action to Mason means anything, then JJ will get big plays. 4K becomes very doable. And right, and last year, this is another number that I can pull up here.

but the Vikings were very successful. I'll get this number for you in running play action. This was something that I wasn't all that impressed by early in the KOC era. It seemed like he just did not lean into play action passing as much as maybe he should have. But last year with Sam Darnold, yet Sam Darnold had the third most yards last year when running play action. Now, I think a lot of play action is throws that go down. down the field. And that was Darnold's specialty. But it's also a lot of scheme. It's just it's a lot of, hey, if you scheme it up correctly, someone's going to be open. You know, just for example,

Bo Nix was one of the tops as well because Sean Payton knows you're using a lot of that scheme to get guys open. Jared Gough is a great play action quarterback. But that was also Ben Johnson using play action almost 40% of the time with Jared Gough. So last year is about 30% for Darnold. He was third in yards, 16 touchdowns, three interceptions, and his quarterback rating with play action was 129.4. Wow. So yeah, no, I think that that play action game, they found something last year with Darnold that they want to carry over. And I was very impressed during training camp with the way that J.J. McCarthy handled play action passing. I thought a lot of his big plays came off of play action.

So they do need Jordan Mason to be as good as advertised and Aaron Jones, too, to work that play action game. And I know that there was, it's sort of funny, like there was a study a long time ago about how you can still succeed with play action, even if you're not a good running game. And I agree with that because Sam Bradford was a good play action quarterback and they couldn't run it all in 2016. But that doesn't mean it doesn't. doesn't help at all. I think it does help quite a bit for your opportunity to do it and how

afraid the defense is. And Jordan Mason is a guy who certainly helped San Francisco last year and is a strike fear into the opponent type of player. Blowfish says, who is the safety that was released by the Patriots? That was a shocker. Jibril Peppers. Jibril Peppers, well, I've got my PFF up here. If I'm not mistaken, was one of the top safeties in the league last year. And he ends up getting released. There must be a problem with the character issue. So he only played 372 snaps last year. But even in 2023 when he played 955, 87 PFF grade, 82 PFF grade, like he in New England became the player that everyone thought he was going to be when he was a second round draft pick. And it has to be on the personal side because this guy's skill set is

phenomenal and he's dynamic a guy that can play pretty much anywhere there was talk about yeah last year he played he split all of his snaps he almost had like a josh metellis like split over the last couple years 134 snaps in the slot 400 in free safety 200 in the box i mean he's a really good player i'm not exactly sure what happened there i mean i don't think the vikings can have any interest in gibriel peppers but that was that was a big surprise to see that happen. Let's see. I see it's been a long time since Christian Ponder's name has come into the chat. That has been a long time. I guess you never know. Well, Christian Ponder did get them to the playoffs once, I guess. I'm just kidding. As a game manager for Adrian Peterson

running for 2,000 yards, I don't think it needs to be that kind of game manager. I think J.J. McCarthy will actually throw the ball more than about five yards through the air. VA Viking Cousins was a game manager and lots of wins for us. The thing about Cousins is if you take a lot of what Kirk Cousins did and then you add athleticism to it and you add aggressiveness to it because I think that was a frustration for a lot of coaches with Kirk Cousins is that he understood that he did not have the strongest arm. And I think that he would try sometimes to avoid having to push the ball into tight windows because he knew that he didn't have exceptional velocity. And it took him a while to get the

ball out. It took a pretty big wind up to get that body to push the football at the type of velocity it needed. That's not say he had a bad arm overall. It just took like an outfielder where they're going to wind up and throw all the way to home where short stops can just catch the ball and then whatever platform they're on, throw it over to first base, I think J.J. McCarthy has a lot more shortstop in him. I think he's got a lot more running ability in him. And that's where if you do game manage and you do play a little bit risk averse and then occasionally hit the shot off play action and you make plays with your legs, you make a couple plays on the run when the pocket breaks down, which I think is one of his strengths. You got yourself

pretty darn good quarterback. If you do all the other stuff that Kirk Cudson, did. Kirk, Kirk was very accurate, though. That's something that McCarthy is going to have to get to that point because Kirk was a very, very overall accurate quarterback. William says JJ seems to be following his reads. If he continues to do that, I predict great things for him. It's amazing how it works because it's so hard to actually see your reads and see the field and go at lightning, lightning speed. I wish that all of you could stand on the sideline for a scrimmage or a joint practice or something just to see it. I think if you've gone out to training camp and you've gotten a good look at it, but when you're really that close, you understand, we criticize these

quarterbacks. Oh, why are you holding out of the ball? Why get rid of it? It's so easy from over here. When you stand on that sideline, it's like, okay, I get it. This thing is moving lightning fast. And I think that that's, that's why you draft J.J. McCarthy because he gets rid of the football because his brain works fast because he sees the field well. And that's what comes through with going through the reads. Anybody can go through the reads, but you got to go through them quick. And you got to see where you're going with the football. And a lot of people at this level, a lot of quarterbacks at this level, just kind of end up panicking. And I don't think that that's J.J. McCarthy.

Luis says, luckily, the Bengals defense is terrible. Still, yes, it is. Trey Hendrickson will be problematic. I have no doubt about that, but it is still going to be terrible. I am interested to see just how different they are schematically. That might be the one potential issue is that they are different schematically from last year. So it kind of throws out a little bit of the tape.

And it's only in week three. So their new DC is going to be dialing up different things than they were doing in the past. But they just don't have a lot of talent on that defense. That's one you could see being, you know, 31, 34 or something like that going back and forth. That's one that I'm very interested in seeing because the last time that I covered a game with Joe Burrow was 2021. I think it was his first game of his second season where he kind of lit up the Vikings in the first half. And then the Vikings came back and they took the lead and Delvin fumbled and they lost the game. And you remember that one from 2021.

That wasn't the tush push game. And that was Jake Browning starting that one. So it's been a while. I have not seen the peak full-grown version of Joe Burrow. And him versus Flores, I mean, these first couple games are pretty cool from a scheduling standpoint. Michael Pennix versus McCarthy, the two guys that were very, very close in the draft, we'll never know if KOC would have taken Pennix or not. That team's pretty stacked.

So it's not, it is not the easiest start to the season, but from a. you know, put it on the marquee. There's some really good quarterback battles with J.J. McCarthy. Kurt says we have not yet realized how great of a pickup Mason is and will be. That I totally agree with. And I was thinking about, like, today, just what are my big takeaways from this whole off season, like from training camp and everything we've seen? Big picture.

Like, what do I think that is maybe different than when it happened? And when it happened, I thought, well, this is a good pickup, you know, Jordan Mason, good running back. But the more I saw him, I thought, it's not a good pickup. It's a great pickup of Jordan Mason. And he could be 100% like the RB1 as we go forward. Not that they're going to bench Aaron Jones, but if Jordan Mason looks like he did throughout this year, he could end up with more carries than Aaron Jones. And the mixing and matching, it might be a little more leaning on Jordan Mason when they're winning.

And if you're up by 10 points in the fourth quarter, it might be Jordan Mason time. He might be kind of the closer. Seek Jesus 27 says predicting fewer than 12 interceptions on the year for JJ, he should be good there. I mean, if you're throwing 15 interceptions in the year 2025, it's been a pretty rough ride for you. And I think that's probably somewhat based on he's also got him throwing 600 passes. And I'm also curious, since I have my number sheet up here, how many quarterbacks through 600 passes last year? This is what I like about Mike Clay, though, and his projections is I think he goes for it. I don't think that he just gives you the most milk toast, whatever type of projections.

I think he takes a real swing at it. So there was only one quarterback last year with over 600 passes. I would be shocked if J.J. McCarthy got to 600 passes. So if he gets to 600, then it throws 15 interceptions. Like the interception percentage is not that high. And I guess that's possible. I would put him much more, I'm looking at quarterbacks from last year. Sam Darnold threw the ball a ton.

And he got 545 passes. I think that 2022 season probably shapes a little bit of that. But every game was a shootout. They went to overtime sometimes. I mean, it was nuts. And that's how Kirk got to like 700 dropbacks. but I'd be very surprised at 600 passes. Bo Nicks through 567, Baker Mayfield through 570,

Matthew Stafford 517, C.J. Stroud, 532. I think it's over 500. I don't think it's quite over 600. So he should end up with, I mean, if he ends up with 10 interceptions for a young quarterback like this, that's pretty solid. if he ends up with 15, that's going to end up being a lot. 15 and 44 sacks is going to be hard. I don't think it can be either one of those numbers if you are winning 12 or 13 games.

I don't think it could be either one of those numbers. Jay Deasy says, sounded like the Panthers GM said Thielen was begging him to trade him back to Minnesota.