Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF draft analyst Mike Renner talks us into the Vikings drafting a receiver

Episode Date: March 9, 2023

Matthew Coller gets together with PFF draft analyst Mike Renner to talk about whether the Vikings should draft a wide receiver and how the receivers performed at the NFL Combine. They play a game of "talk me into" covering whether the Bears could propel themselves into being a Super Bowl contender, whether Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has the right plan for the team's future and more... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here along with PFF Draft Analyst Mike Renner, fresh off of Indianapolis, where I'm told sources say there was not enough vibing, Mike. It seemed like every time I saw you, you were working. We didn't get to hang. We didn't run into each other at high velocity. It was disappointing. I suppose it's a good thing that I'm working so much and that like I'm on all these podcasts, I shouldn't be complaining about it. But at some point, you just want to like hang out with the people that are there instead of just doing hit after hit after hit. But it was

a good time. Nonetheless, combine is always a great time. I'm too popular, too famous now and couldn't do enough vibing. I get it. I get it. Mike. No, I'm glad we could get together, though, and talk about some of the sort of ramifications and some other things going on around the NFL and with the Minnesota Vikings. And I thought that there was no better way to do it than a little bit of a throwback to, I think it was last summer when I was at the park

because construction was going on in my house, that we did a little Talk Me Into, and I haven't done Talk me into with anybody on the show so if people don't know how this works it's pretty obvious I ask you to talk me into stuff you ask me to talk you into stuff and then we work our way through a lot of fun topics so why don't why don't we just start out with this as you a part owner of the Green Bay Packers people people don't this if they've watched any of your shows or listened to you over the years.

Talk me into it being somehow good for the Green Bay Packers that Aaron Rodgers may get traded to the Jets. Let's say that he does. Let's say he ends up a Jet. Talk me into that somehow being a good outcome for the Green Bay Packers. It's a good outcome for the Green Bay Packers because they're not a good team with Aaron Rodgers. I think is the ultimately why that is,

is because with him, and obviously they have, you know, a first, the 15th overall pick right now, whatever, 36 in the second. But like, they need more players on this roster. They need to be better. And it's regardless of who's that quarterback, they need to be better. They're not winning a Super Bowl with the roster as currently constructed so you need all the help you can get and you need to hit reset at a number of positions that

have just kind of gone down the drain so there's too many holes in this roster too many liabilities and Rodgers own value is only going to go down from here so I just say I thought last year was the right time, truthfully. I think I said that wherever anyone asked me to say it. I was like, that was the time. Two back-to-back MVPs, the team's not good enough. Got to do it now. But now it's definitely, like any longer than this,

and he's retiring Green Bay Packer, and you're not getting anything in return, and you're not winning Super Bowl. Even though we could go back to our old comments and hear us talking about how we thought Green Bay was going to win the division last year, I think that was a rational thought. But I also feel like everyone who follows the NFC North

or the Packers knew that as soon as San Francisco blocked that punt, that was it. That was Rodgers' last chance was in the snow in Green Bay that there was never going to be a better situation, an easier path even to the Super Bowl. I mean, the Rams were a great team, but they would have had to come to Lambeau and face MVP Rodgers. And I don't think that you are ever going to be able to roll that back because the team was very strong at that point. So they missed that chance. And now, yeah, I mean, I do agree with you that it's better that they move on and they actually at some point have to find out what Jordan Love is I don't know if

you hold out any like old draft reports if you go back and look what did I say about Jordan Love many years ago if he was going to be a good quarterback or not I actually don't remember what your Jordan Love take was but I do think it will be kind of an interesting test case in quarterback development. We don't see this happen very often. And ironic that it's, again, the Green Bay Packers doing it. But the very little that he played, he actually did look like he knew what he was doing as an NFL quarterback. Yeah, this was literally the last time a first-round quarterback has

three years not playing was Aaron Rodgers. You know, like the backers did it again. And there is something to be said for that, in my opinion, of like truly developing guys without the pressure of ever having to be that guy. Like I think that if you, you know, for a lot of quarterbacks, especially nowadays with collegiate offenses, how they are, I do think a plan to develop is something that's been lost in sort of the, just the landscape of the NFL.

A lot of teams are drafting these guys highly and then just saying, if it doesn't work, we got to move on. Well, I think working is kind of subjective in that, you know, there's so few guys that can come into the NFL in year one, year two, like actually have a mastery of these offenses and of NFL defenses, the concepts that they have to run. So I like it from that perspective. We'll see how it works out.

I was not high on Jordan Love coming out, but everyone who watches him knows he's a heck of an athlete with a heck of an arm. And the nine attempts that he had against the Philadelphia Eagles were the best nine attempts of his NFL career. So the arrow's pointing upwards. Yeah, what a sample size that you have to work with. He also came in and maybe ran two drives against the Vikings

after it was blown out. I forget how much he was in. At that point, I wasn't paying a lot of attention to that game because it was not particularly close. I am mostly talked into this. I would say I'm 95% of the way talked into this. The only thing is there has to be a little part of you that holds out. Like, what if Rodgers did go full magic rogers right i mean with christian watson developing the way he did through the middle of the season if you think

about if watson was the version at the end at the beginning then they might have been instead of missing the playoffs more of like a 10 or 11 win team i mean is there is there any part for all i guess packers people that thinks because it feels like everyone wants to be done. The Packers want to be done. Rodgers wants to be done. And the fans want to be done, just from judging from what reporters are writing and I'm seeing on Twitter. But there has to be, if he, let's say he wins the AFC East next year

and just bounces back throwing to Garrett Wilson with a good offensive line and a good defense and everything else in New York, there's going to be a part that goes everything else in New York, there's, there's going to be a part that goes, Oh, would he have actually been, could they have won the, I mean, it might depend on how much you trust the Detroit lions, but it's not like the division is just decided if Rogers were to stay. Yeah. There is part of that obviously, but it's like the, the cap is a, is a real thing, you know? Right. And it's like, you look at his cap fits and you of that, obviously, but it's like the cap is a real thing.

You look at his cap hits and you're like, oh, this could not just hamper us if he stays this upcoming year. It could not just hamper us for this year, but two years, three years down the road with how that contract is structured to where, yeah, maybe catch lightning in a bottle. The roster is not horrible by any means. And again, like you said, some ascending young players, but like it would have to look vastly different. And I just think everyone at this point, it's like, if I can get a first back,

you get the first back and you just kind of hit reset and give yourself a much better financial situation to build for the future. Yeah, I mean, I'm with you. I am talked into this. I think that every team that runs to the end with a legendary quarterback, they always screw themselves into the ground with the salary cap. And it's always a position that's going to take a reset. I mean, Tampa Bay is going to carry like 30 million of Tom Brady. New Orleans was carrying a bunch of dead cap from Drew Brees.

Although don't ever bring that up on the Internet. I saw today that Nick Wright made the mistake of having a tweet go out there with him talking about the Saints cap situation. Don't do it. Those say those Saints fans, the reporters, they'll attack you like crazy. So don't ever mention that the cap is real to them, but everybody else it's real to. What would you like me to talk you into? Okay. I was going to say, talk me into the Vikings running it back next year.

Why are they going to win the North again with the way the Lions are ascending, with Jordan Love, a franchise quarterback now in the division, with the Bears about to spend $100 million in free agency and maybe get a draft haul. How do the Vikings talk me into the Vikings running it back? Yeah, the Bears are trying to sign me in free agency. They're just trying to sign everybody involved in football in free agency to even get to the cap floor. And we'll definitely talk about that bears situation of trading down, but running it back. And of course, everyone who listens to the show,

this is what's so great about talk me into means you have to do it, even if you don't think that it's actually right. But I guess if I were to say they should run it back, It would be based on that you have Justin Jefferson. And if you have Justin Jefferson, you really can't tank. You really can't do anything that would make Justin Jefferson think he wants to play for anyone else. Now, he might just have that in his head that he's going to leave and not sign a contract. And there's nothing you can do about it. That was the Devontae Adams situation. That was the Stephon Diggs situation. It wasn't like the Vikings were a terrible organization when Diggs wanted out, but he just

thought, I can go somewhere else. I can get more of a target share, prove the player I am. And hey, he did that. But with Justin Jefferson, you have to do everything in your power to make sure that he wants to stay with your organization long-term. And I don't think the NFL PA survey that says you're an A-plus is going to be enough if you're terrible and he doesn't believe that you can win. And Kweisi Adafomensa said this at the Combine. He said, look, Justin Jefferson wants to win. And if you think about the other things, catches, money, like those are all going to come to Justin Jefferson no matter where he goes. What is he going to care about the most? He's going to want to believe that his franchise can get him a ring

because this guy won a national championship that he brings up all the time. Like several years later, he's still bringing up, when I was at LSU winning the national championship, so he clearly has this yearning to win. If you're going out there and running out a 6-11 team, that's not going to be very good for you. And if he looks around that locker room at the end of the offseason and goes, we got nothing.

Why am I going to sign here? You got rid of every single player who's good. I think that that does potentially put that in jeopardy. Also, when you have him and you have Christian Derrissaw, the surplus value of those guys, how good they are, you should be pretty competitive anyway. You're never going to have, if Kirk Cousins is still your quarterback, a year where you're terrible.

So you have to do everything you can to win in this situation with those guys because you're wasting a year of their rookie contracts or a very cheap year of Jefferson if he signs an extension. And also, by the way, it's the Lions. And I don't know, like, yes, they were good last year, and they look like they're ascending. That doesn't mean anything. It's the Lions. The Packers, I mean, even if Jordan Love is good,

they don't have enough to be a legit Super Bowl contender. So once again, you'd be talking about, can you get improvement from Brian Flores? Can you develop some players? Can you draft better than you didores? Can you develop some players? Can you draft better than you did last year or get some of the draft picks from last year to improve, have some better fits in your defense, and then run out a team that wins the division?

I think that's very possible that they could do that. They can't buy the cap because it is real, run all of it back, but enough of it to win the division and still have a home playoff game at the end of the day. So that's the best I can do. Chances are, also, they're going to have the best quarterback in the division. Cousins is better than Goff, likely better than Love, and obviously, as just a passer, better than Justin Fields.

Well, you have the best offense in the division, really, because, yeah, Detroit with Ben Johnson and all the weapons that they have. But you might, I mean, with Kevin O'Connell, that's the thing. I've always kind of come back to this when it's, you know, talking about running it back is, are you going to be the one that tells Kevin O'Connell, you just won 13 games, but I'm sorry, sir. Next year, you can't win games. I refuse to lie. And, and you hired Brian Flores. Did you hire Brian Flores to come

here and be garbage? Like, no, you came here to get improvement on defense, right? So then, then as far as the bigger timeline, if I'm really trying to talk you into this, it would be you run Kirk Cousins contract through the end. You don't sign him to an extension. You do everything you can to win. And if nature takes its course and you don't win, then you draft a little higher. And if you end up with a home playoff game, you still trade everything you have in the future to trade up to get a quarterback next year. Like being a winning team next year doesn't mean you can never have a quarterback ever again.

Teams who have made the playoffs have changed quarterbacks after that. So it doesn't have to ruin your future. I think you could do both. Talked into it. I've talked into it. I still do think they're probably going to be the best team in the North next year. Do you think though that Questy would make a move like a Mahomes trade move

for a quarterback in this year's class this year's class I don't know I think that well see this is something that you would be more tuned into than me as the draft expert so we can deviate just for a second outside of the realm of talk me into. I mean, do you think that anyone's going to be available to be able to trade up because the Vikings have 23, a third round pick, they could trade their next two firsts if they really wanted, but then look around at this roster. Is that really a very good idea to do it?

Anthony Richardson, I feel like after the combine is going to go really high. I don't even know if anybody's going to drop. Normally's one guy that drops but i don't know if it's going to be anybody so you you tell me what you think about that because i think that they would consider if opportunity arised arose i think that's the problem is that kind of after you know the mahomes and watson year that quarterbacks just don't fall to like that range. It's just rare to see them fall to that range. And especially in this year's class with how many teams there have to jump

that would want a quarterback. Yeah. I think it's just going to be too much. How much when the bears got fields, what was that? Do you remember what the draft position of that was first, which ended up being what the top five pick last year um and i think that's all it was though it was 21 and then future first to move up from like 21 to 11 i think something like that i mean if that if that was possible if that was possible they would have they would have to very strongly consider it because it would just make so much sense to move up, take that guy,

sit him behind Kirk Cousins for a year. And usually, I mean, you know this anyway, that if we start writing in rookies to fill big spots on a team, you're probably lost already, which the Vikings kind of were on defense last year, hoping that Louis Scene would step in right away. I mean, I think that's I think that's very plausible. I don't even think that takes a talk me into for either one of this, because that seems like such an obvious good idea. You agree with that? Yeah. I do. Okay. Talk

me into this, though. Let's say the Vikings can't get any of those quarterbacks. Talk me into wide receiver being a good idea for the Vikings at 23. Well, one, you don't have a second wide receiver at this point. Adam Thielen is over the hill. You had every defense that you faced pretty much over the second half

of the season at minimum. I don't remember too much about the first half, but I know in the second half, Justin Jefferson was getting doubled. He was just getting double teams. He was just getting guys over the top, like teams who are not afraid of anyone else beating them, besides Justin Jefferson. And obviously TJ Hawkinson helps that a little bit,

but he's still a tight end that is not much of a vertical threat in an offense. And in this class, the guys at the top are all deep speed besides Jackson and Jigba. You have three guys in, whether it's your four guys, and whether it's Quinn Johnson from TCU, Jalen Hyatt from Tennessee, Zay Flowers from Boston College, Jordan Addison from USC, who all

sub-4-5 guys all have legitimate deep speed, all can take the top off a defense that you don't have at the moment. And if you get that, it not only is going to make Kirk Cousins' life easier and they'll be productive, I think, but it's going to make Justin Jefferson's life easier as well.

So, of course, I agree with this because we've been banging the drum for wide receiver. But based on the players, can you give me a little more about the players? Because this, I think, would be maybe a concern is when you go back to a few recent draft class, there were dudes who you just thought wow okay this you know there there are freak monsters even justin jefferson it's in hindsight totally ludicrous that he was drafted where he was because he was like a 97th percentile athlete

i don't see freak monsters except for maybe quentin johnson in this draft that's the thing is there's really no one that projects to that, like number one that we've seen in recent years, you got a bunch of kind of complimentary pieces, which isn't the worst thing in the world. You know, like Calvin Ridley was seen as, you know, a number two wide receiver and what he'd go for when you're like over 1500 yards, you're the number one receipt.

Number two designation is kind of gone by the wayside. You just want multiple guys that can get open. And so this class has a lot of guys in that mold where it's, you know, 5'9 to 5'11, 170 to 190 that can run routes and get open. That's, you know, that's Dave Flowers to me. That's Jordan Addison to me. Further down in like day two, that's Josh Downs from North Carolina. That's tank Dell from Houston.

There's just a lot of guys who are smaller, but can get open on their own. So it's, it's not a, it's not maybe again, the high end that we saw in last year's class, like probably the top four guys from last year are all maybe superior prospects just in terms of all around game to what we're seeing any of the top guys this year. But I do think that's still, you know, in the NFL, these guys still can bring a ton of value to the football field. And Quinn Johnson is the one who's just like, that guy's a wild card.

Truthfully on tape, like he is physically at one of the most impressive prospects I've seen since I started doing this nine years ago. So like he is a true, could be a true number one. I'm interested to see where he goes, but he's that classic like route, route tree concerns. Why wasn't he more productive? Ball skills or whatever. Aren't that great.

Had a lot of drops on tape. So it's kind of everyone has their warts in the receiver class, but that doesn't mean there's no talent to be had. Do you have kind of a best fit? Because when I look at the Vikings, I mean, you know Justin Jefferson's going to line up the majority of the time on the outside, and he does move into the slot, but he's not like a Cooper Cup slot receiver. K.J. Osborne is a guy that they really like

and apparently pulls people from burning cars. So that's just a plus. Yeah. You didn't have that when he was coming out and you're scouting. But they like him. So he's going to be here. That to me screams you need an outside wide receiver, somebody who can beat press and things like that,

and who is going to face a lot of man-to-man coverage, knowing that they're going to be doubling Justin Jefferson all the time. Is there someone who kind of fits in that lane? I think Quinn Johnson is like an outside wide receiver. I don't think he's on the board by that. 23 guys who are that big, that fast, that explosive, just like they tend to go higher even if the tape may not justify it. But the one who then after that, Jordan Addison,

is the one who is probably that was who he was at Pittsburgh. That's who he was at USC. That's the role he played. That's where his production came from. That is, you know, that's your guy in that mold in this draft class in the first round, which unfortunately, like, because he's the one, may mean he gets drafted higher, too. As we saw last year, you know, guys like John Dotson,

who I didn't see as prospects to that caliber went just because everyone's just trying to get more weapons the you know the arms race is real so i think a lot of these guys are going to be pushed up and if if you told me on drafted that none of those four were available by pick 23 i wouldn't be surprised just because of the desperation and what everyone's trying to do around the league yeah i think the nfl is showing more and more that it's starting to get it when it comes to how important that is and look i think kyle shanahan is a genius like everybody else but the guy just drafts a receiver all the time and then but and then trades for christian

mccaffrey is like everyone is open all the time because they're all good at football. And maybe a little less genius when he didn't have those guys. What would you like me to talk you into? Talk me into. Questy Adolfo Mensah being. Maybe not the best GM over the, over his tenure here with the Minnesota Vikings. Maybe being a worrisome, his start here for Minnesota.

Okay. Yeah, no, that can be done. Well, I think if you're skeptical about Kweisi Adafomenta, then it begins with how much command does he really have? Because we've spent now two years talking with him and there's no question that he is really really intelligent and that he really gets a lot of concepts that i think are proven modern studied things like that that we look at like this is the farthest thing from dave gettleman dinosaur who's

just out there you know drafting daniel jones based on one drive at the senior bowl, right? Like this is, this is a super well-read, highly studied human being who really gets a lot of concepts. However, we all have bosses. Wait, I don't, but a lot of people have bosses. And so when you, when you have bosses, you have to operate only within the constraints of what your boss will allow so if your boss says mike no mock drafts all draft month you're like wait what i want to do mock drafts what are you talking about i just traded up with the texans to the bears uh which you did in your most recent mock but if your boss says that there's not a whole lot you can do you can't go do your mock drafts even if it's right to do mock drafts, even if the mock drafts will kill on the website and you know it.

And that might be the case when ownership says, look, we love Kirk Cousins. We want him to sign a similar extension to Derek Carr. That's what your job is today. And you might argue with it, but you're not going to argue too hard because there's only 32 GM jobs in the NFL. So a lot of times you just have to carry out the orders. The other thing is too, that sometimes, and nobody knows this better than you, sometimes people with analytics can be a little dangerous with them in their hands because one, I mean, one, you can sometimes overstudy something and

just miss common sense. And I think that galaxy brain is a real thing where people kind of overstudy something, overthink something, and you trade out of a Jameson Williams pick to go all the way down and you kind of miss the forest through the trees that there's like really, you know, all pro level prospects where you're drafting. And maybe those are the guys that will drive success. And if he does too much of that, too much of the, we're going to wheel and deal and trade. And I don't know how much you follow the NBA, but the Timberwolves have traded about 15 different times because they always had some new idea. And they ended up with

Rudy Gobert and Mike Connelllly after trading like 100 times. Like, wait a minute. That's not a good outcome to have. How did you trade all that for just this? And Kweisi has done a little bit of that. Like, he's a little trade happy. And I think that, you know, if you do a little bit too much of all that stuff, like I've got to be the guy pushing button after button after button,

you can get yourself into some trouble. So I think that with those two things, they're both kind of potholes potentially for Kweisi Adafo-Mentz. Yeah. I, it, it's difficult to, you know, see his first draft class and just the production you got from the mirror one and be like, Oh, that was, you know, a great draft. It was objectively kind of just like, man, you know, even obviously the bike was like, oh, that was, you know, a great draft. It was objectively kind of just like, man, you know, even obviously the bike was successful, whatever,

but there's not a hit yet among any, you know, that first pick. And not even really the arrow pointing in a good direction when it comes to any of those guys, but, you know, we'll see. It takes years. I guess I would say too, that you could be the smartest gm in the world or the dumbest gm in the world and maybe like bill polly and his proof of this but if you get the quarterback you can do a lot of things wrong and it will not matter and and i'm not saying bill polly is the dumbest gm in the world but he had jim kelly in buffalo and

then peyton manning in indianapolis and you get to be the smartest guy in the world, but he had Jim Kelly in Buffalo and then Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, and you get to be the smartest guy in the world when that happens. So really what it probably will come down to with Kweisi Adafomensa, genius or dope, is just what happens next at the quarterback position, which I don't really know. Talk me into a trade down for the Vikings to try to get more draft capital. So far, I've been very easy on you on these because I think that this is this is worth it. But also where they sit, there's a lot of prospects, at least by the PFF draft simulator,

which everyone should do at PFF.com. There's a lot of prospects that I like. I was just doing a draft sim and I end up with Kalijah Canty. I mean, that's hard to turn down, but they also are lacking in draft capital. Is this a good draft or talk me into this being a good draft to trade back? So I was going to come on here and say that like where they're at is kind of right to cut off where I don't want to move back. Like that is, so there's about 20,

I think like 25 guys in the PFF, 26 guys, I'll go to that. I think are like legit, you know, I take them in the first round kind of guys. And I have so few second, I'm just looking at the grades I have in the draft guide, first round grades, I think I had 26 and then maybe like 13 second round grades. There's just not a lot of guys that are really liked in that mold of like, you know, second round grades are usually like good football players that have maybe

some weakness, some athletic deficiency, something like that, where it's like, okay, they're a second rounder, not a lot in this draft class. So I don't love it from that perspective, but I will say if there is any position that kind of gets hot in the second round where i could see there being value is wide receiver and if there's anything about wide receivers it's like one is cool yes but you could get two wide receivers in this draft class that could be even cooler for the minnesota vikings so i do think that is something that i'd be interested in is that the wide receiver class really starts to heat up if there is any spot it is in that second round I do think there's a bunch of names

in that mix that if you come away with not one but two of those guys so maybe like a Josh Downs and an A.T. Perry or Josh Downs and a Parker Washington or a Kayshaun Booty in the third round something like that where it's like now've got a couple of different guys in there that maybe in a class where you don't want to put yourself with just one guy hoping he turns out, give yourself options, give your cousins options, and then obviously see how the chips fall, kind of like how they just threw at the secondary last year. I think that makes sense to keep going that route at those positions

if you are going to. Well, and they just have so many needs in this draft. I mean, you need probably defensive line at some point, pass rusher, because we don't really know what's going on with Zedaria Smith or Daniel Hunter. But we know they're not going to be here for a long time. And cornerback, you're hiring Brian Flores. You probably need a corner. And if you're going to stay with a similar system, even if he gets a head coaching job, you need, you need man-to-man corners. And I wanted your opinion on that, on this group of cornerbacks, because going into

the combine, I looked at a bunch of different big boards and rankings, and they were all very different about where people felt like the corners landed. Now, how do you look at it? Like, is this a group where you could get a good cornerback prospect in the second round? Or do you think there's some sort of clear cutoff now with the corner group? A hundred percent. I think you can definitely get a corner, good cornerback in the second round. I think you, you can bet on the top like six guys going in the first round.

I think Devin Witherspoon, Miller, Christian Gonzalez, Oregon, Joey Porter, Junior Penn State, Deontay Banks from Maryland, and probably Emmanuel Forbes from Mississippi State. Those guys are all going in the first round. I would bet good money

on all those guys being gone. Cam Smith's going to be a fringe first rounder, the South Carolina cornerback. I think Keeley Ringo, the Georgia corner, may be a fringe first rounder. But then after that, you got a lot of guys who I really

like still in the second round, whether it's Tyreek Stevenson, who I think is a good man corner from Miami. Garrett Williams, who would be in that mix if he didn't tear his ACL, may fall to the third because of it, but I think he's a really good man corner from Syracuse. Eli Ricks from Alabama, I think

he's a really good man corner as well. So there's man corners in this class that are day two guys that usually there's usually not that many in any given year that are like true man corners. So I think the Vikings are in luck from that perspective. Yeah. I mean, I think that this makes a lot of sense if that's what their target is but you know what's interesting about this year is just that there's so many different ways they could go they could go crazy and trade up for a quarterback they could stay right there and

draft somebody that's a higher level prospect they could drop back um there's a lot of entry going into this do you mind if i go daily double with uh talk me into because i just have another one that i have another one that I want to go with. It's a little a little more tricky. I want you to talk me into the Chicago Bears Super Bowl champions 2025. I really don't want to do this, but it's the point of the game. I'll start with this. Ryan Poles.

Smart GM. Good, good evaluator of talent, trades Justin Fields away to draft Bryce Young with number one overall pick, realizing that, hey, we're trying to win Super Bowls here. We're not trying to just field a good football team. That opens up this massive window, if that's the case. That is four to five years of Bryce Young's rookie deal. But I think he's that caliber of prospect that you would move on from a guy who's flashed in

Justin Fields, but hasn't proven that he's a franchise guy. I think Bryce Young is going to be that. And obviously that would be year three of Bryce Young, kind of like the prime year of anyone. So they're going to have that. They're going to have the picks they get back from whatever Justin Fields trade. And they're going to have a. They're going to have the picks they get back from whatever Justin Fields trade. And they're going to have a ton of money to play with a free agency that if they were smart would probably be, you know, used on shorter term deals to allow them flexibility to get out from, to really hit that window. That is year two and year three of Bryce Young.

So that would be the only way I'm talking you into that. But Chicago bears Super Super Bowl chance 2025. Unless they were to play Justin Fields, be terrible, and draft Caleb Williams, right? Right? I mean, I suppose that's possible. Do you think that Ryan Poles is playing possum here when it comes to this draft pick or Poles some?

No, that was too bad. But, I mean way the way that he's talking is like no no we're gonna see this through it's all good but just what sticks in my mind is josh rosen is our quarterback that's always gonna remain in my brain is josh rosen is our quarterback so what do you think the odds are that they actually do this because i still think it's pretty low i think it's very. I think somewhere in the neighborhood of like five to 10%. But as the days goes on, and especially once we hit like new league year, that's when I'd start to really question whether it's going to,

whether he's going to move that number one overall pick, because you would think the price is going to be at its highest before we see any semblance of quarterback carousel before, you know, Aaron Rogers gets moved before, you know, Jimmy G signed somewhere before all these kinds of quarterback, James Winston signed somewhere for all these dominoes start to fall and everyone gets kind of their guy or gets at least an option because bidding right now will be at its highest. Everyone's in the quarterback market right now. You know, the Raiders, the Panthers, you name it.

Everyone has an vested interest in going up and getting their guy. So if really this day starts to creep on, it would not surprise me if, you know, internally E-Bell's came back and they're like, we freaking love Bryce Young. We're not going to, you know, why am I a guy who didn't draft Justin Fields, a guy whose career is not tied to him at all? Why am I going to pigeonhole myself into the possibility that he figures it out next year?

Yeah, I still think, well, yeah, I mean, I still think that they probably just moved down, but I don't think that we should be so dismissive of the idea that they won't. That's the point. It's like coming out of the combine. We always think we know everything and we always know way less because GMs often go to the podium and say things that aren't true when it comes to that.

Okay. You thought you asked me for one more and then we'll do one more and then we'll let you go on with your life. Okay. Gosh, on with your life okay gosh talk me into the Packers kind of hold over the NFC North being over the Packers being the you know the last whatever since the early 90s since they traded for Favre they've kind of been the preeminent figure in the division talk me into those days being done well I think that it starts, I mean, of course,

with if Jordan Love just stinks. I mean, that's going to be a problem there. But if it's going to happen for them to be good, like they have to figure out salary cap stuff eventually because even if Jordan Love is, imagine if Jordan Love goes 8-9 next year and has a decent year. Like, do you Daniel Jones him and give him a big

deal like how about that for a potential nightmare scenario is that he's just okay but you have to pay him already you don't even have that time they don't have any of the rookie quarterback contract advantage so if they just kind of like jordan love but then the front office is like well we drafted jordan love and we manipulated a Aaron Rodgers for years and made him hate us and turned him into a guy who goes and lives in a tree and licks frogs or whatever over it. I mean, like we really sent him spiraling. We have to go with Jordan Love here. And he goes eight and nine, nine and eight, just barely kind of hangs on, maybe gets a

wildcard spot and he's just average. But average gets you paid. And then the GM always likes to lock themselves into the guy they drafted so they can look like a genius and tell the hundred thousand owners of the green bay packers that they're doing a great job because they drafted jordan love you could really get locked into hell there because he's gonna have a bigger cap hit and if he's not that good and you can't do a whole lot of flexibility wise and they kicked a lot of money down the road to squeeze the last couple of years out of aaron rogers that can put you in a hole that it takes a really long time to dig out of because then you have to go through a couple years where this is like sort of blake bortles

type of stuff right like they set you know signed bl Bortles, and then you have to go through another year of hell with Blake Bortles because he's bad. And I think it could be, yeah, it could be years before they can get themselves out of that. I don't even know if that's a hard one to actually talk you into. The only thing is that when I'm saying all this, you know what Vikings fans are thinking, which is like, no, Jordan Love's about to be a legend.

That's what's really going to happen is he's just going to be a goat. But I think this is one that I actually can believe that it's going to be Detroit-Chicago, and we'll see what happens with the Vikings and their quarterback situation. The Packers could really just kind of float around in the middle here for a while or be bad. Yeah, the biggest thing to me is the cap situation.

It's not Jordan Love. I don't say I think he's going to be good, but I think they have a good roster still. But my gosh, like 2024, they have like the fourth lowest cap space already. Still, like that's not a good spot to be in as a franchise, unless you're like there, you know, unless you are at the doorstep and they are, you know, they aren't even within knocking distance.

I forget. Did you, did you grow up in Wisconsin? Was that, is that the connection? I was born in Milwaukee. I lived there for six years. Okay. So that, that was, that's the deal. All right. Cause I'm sure people want, I mean, because there's a whole legion of people who are fans just because of Brett Favre. My college roommate was a huge Packers fan only because of Brett Favre. And I,

and I don't think he ever even fully bought into Aaron Rogers because he loved Brett Favre that much. So there's, there is a lot of you out there. It is hard to describe unless you were like in wisconsin at that time just the unrelenting undying love for that guy like no state no fan base ever went to bat more for a guy who was you know objectively a not great person on the whole but like you could not tell that to people in the Wisconsin area. No, you still can't because they pick their own information, but we take shots at Wisconsin anytime we can here on the show. I think that's like three straight shows where I've done it anyway.

Last one though. Talk me into, I'm Justin Jefferson right now and you are Quasity Daffo Mensa and you desperately, as it was clear at the combine desperately want me to sign today without even really knowing what's going to come next talk me into why i justin jefferson should sign up for a five-year seven gazillion dollar contract to remain a minnesota viking long term why because I think you have all the leverage in that you can hold out for like guaranteed money. And when guaranteed, it's like high guarantees are in today's NFL tough to come by.

And so when you have that kind of leverage, you can get a lot of it guaranteed at his age. And I guess like, if you're haggling at that point, then once it gets guaranteed, you've only made what, like 10, $12 million in his NFL career. He wasn't drafted at a position where he's really real deal set for life. At that point, it's icing on the cake. Once you, once you hit that contract, there's no injury, there's no nothing that can take the a hundred million dollars out of your pocket. And so you really are, uh, you, you're making,

I can't tell so I can tell someone not to wait out over $50 million of what it could be or whatever the top end could be, but cash in pocket, a hundred million pockets difficult to pass up. So I think that's the biggest thing is that you can get guarantees right now that if any injury, any massive injury strikes that you know knock on wood unfortunately but like any injury strikes over the next two seasons when you're trying to play the game to wait till free agency all of a sudden that number is going way way way down in terms of guarantees just because of how much any every nfl team values uh reliability and

availability so i think that would be the only the only way I can talk you into it. Okay. But what if I, as Justin Jefferson tell you, look, I just got a shoe deal. That's going to pay me $50 million anyway. I'm not really worried about money. My family's taken care of. And you know, I'm not, I'm not a money guy. I don't even care about that. What I care about is the W's and the rings. Can you talk me into that? Because I feel like I'm going to get my money either way and i already got

my endorsements and i'm kind of good to go yeah if he wins i mean how i would talk to you that is not necessarily saying look at this roster but look at the rest of the rosters in the nfc north you know the bears are the basement of the nfl right now they obviously have to rebuild everything there the packers are going the wrong way so you got two kind of doormats in that division while the Lions are ascending they still have their own issues of quarterback position and still are banking on a lot of young guys turning good here so you're still the class of the division you're still going to win games now are you going to win Super Bowls that's a little different but like you know it only takes some landing in a bottle it's not always the best team at the end of the year that wins Super Bowls. We've seen that with the Giants.

We've seen that with the Ravens. And we saw it with the Rams just a couple years ago, that if you're in the mix, all it takes is like three games to get hot, and you're there. You didn't talk me into it. No, not really. I think that maybe the best case would be if you said, you get to have so much command over what's going to happen here, so much control, and you get to work with Kevin O'Connell, you two like this, you two at the front office.

I'm making like a connected thing with my hands if you're listening. But, you know, all together, you know, the three of us, a triumvirate of power jefferson quacey kevin like that's that's the group and you and not any other team is just going to give you that they're going to sign you the money and they're just going to expect production but we have that option for you as well that you're going to be able to help us pick your next quarterback for example which is going to have to happen at some point i will say say, though, Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback to play with usually for the wide receiver position. He targets the outside.

He'll go to you a lot. There aren't a lot of guys in the NFL that really are of that mold, that kind of, you know, when things break down, they're giving their best guy a chance. That's definitely Kirk Cousins falls into that. Not a ton of guys do. Yeah, I mean, his number one receivers have always put up

huge numbers. So that's, but that's the crazy thing with Jefferson is I don't even think it's the numbers. I really think with him, it's a,

he's kind of a different cat in that way that he just wants to be somewhere where he's going to win, which does put a little bit of a roadblock in the talk me into. This fun is always

at PFF must be an underscore Mike still, I think on Twitter, we've probably said it a hundred times, the PFF mock draft simulator, the PFF draft guide, which is I could screen share and show you that it's right up in the tab, just as promised, but incredible work there. And you guys are going to be updating it all the time coming out of the combine and everything else like that. So lots of good stuff, man.

Great to get together with you. And we'll definitely do it again before the Vikings make their pick. For sure, Matthew. Can't wait. Can't wait. I think I won the talk me into, though, this time. Yeah, my arguments were, I mean, you did put me in a lot of arguments where I did not believe.

I wasn't a believer. That's the goal. Thanks again, man.