Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Ben Brown would bet on a Justin Jefferson extension

Episode Date: February 2, 2023

Matthew Coller is joined by PFF's Ben Brown. They go over eight bets for the future, from whether Patrick Mahomes will win more than two Super Bowls to the Vikings' over-under win total for next year to Justin Jefferson making $30 million or more by the end of this offseason. Then listen to Matthew's interview on WCCO Radio with Dean Blandino about how the NFL could be more transparent Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider presented by Liquid Death. Go to liquiddeath.com slash insider and learn about the Tallboy can, which actually has water. Find out where you can get it near you at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and joining me, the head of betting innovations, Ben Brown at Pro Football Focus. New title since last time we talked, Ben? Yeah, it's a little bit. Obviously, some changes

happened in the PFF headquarters and world, all things considering. But yeah, there is still a focus on betting and thankfully, I'm more positioned, I would say, to at least steer some of that direction. So it's been interesting, but it's definitely good. Excited for the offseason, though, I'll say that much. Well, the biggest betting event in the universe coming up in the Super Bowl. But I have some bigger picture bets for you. I wrote down eight bets, and I want to ask you if you would make them. And they're not like, hey miles sanders over 14 and a half

receiving yards or something i got bigger picture bets but have you started your process of figuring out which bets you're going to make for the super bowl because i do feel like the prop world is probably the only place where people can get any sort of actual edge but i'm not even sure that's really true for the super bowl because there's so many eyeballs on it. Yeah, I mean, it is obviously interesting, and the dynamics change a little bit. Like if you're trying to, you know, take this as a, you know, job sort of thing, obviously you want to be betting early and often, but there is obviously a lot of, you know, other considerations going into it because, like, the majority of money

coming in for the Super Bowl is very much what people consider this public side or very public betting because so many more people are betting. And those sorts of people kind of tend to push the direction of numbers towards the over. So if you are more of a systematic better that's trying to make money or something, in some ways playing the opposite side of that towards the end as we get closer to kickoff and maybe betting some unders at that point you know can be a worthwhile approach and it's sort of how i've you know uh gone over it previously but you know kind of what you said like there's so many

markets and so many offerings that we only see for the super bowl that there are a lot of opportunities for people to kind of under um you know not necessarily price out correctly all the events that are going to happen. So that's where I'm kind of trying to come in and fill in the gaps and maybe provide, you know, some resistance in those other markets, I would say right now. So what is the stupidest, smartest bet that someone can make around the Super Bowl? Is it the anthem? Because that's always a thing. And now, isn't it true that the anthem has gone over like a bunch of times or gone under?

Is there some sort of streak involving the anthem? Yeahem has gone over like a bunch of times or gone under? There's some sort of streak involving the Anthem? Yeah, it's gone over a number of times. I also think that, you know, we very much, that's a market that moves on information very quickly. So I think like two years ago, there was like a release time recorded from when, you know, the person was practicing or whatever. Then like the market swung like 25 cents or something so you very rarely see markets swing so much uh like you can't sign with some of these like information-based ones but i do think that is one in particular we very much usually get information on i know you know they're doing the research and really digging in and trying to kind of read between lines i would say how about the kickoff can you do whether it goes out of the back

of the end zone or whatever like There's something for almost every play. Like how much of there is like a league-wide trend as far as like kickoffs going into the end zone or going in as touchbacks do you use? And how much of it is, you know, player specific for each team and those sorts of things. And it is a balancing act. And I think with the books, you know, kind of only doing it, you know, once every year, it's very much more of an ad hoc process from their end. And I think when that happens, like it does create some weird outcomes and those sorts of things. But from like PFF's perspective and one thing that I've worked on last season, we've tried to build up this with more called like a play by play simulation. And that would give us, you know, a lot of the opportunities to price out a lot of these other markets. That's kind of where I'm, I would say, digging into this week is not only, you know, not only seeing what we price out, but like kind of comparing that to the betting market, maybe market maybe seeing if we have you know some blind spots in our own modeling and those sorts of things so i was going to make fun of you about the you know betting innovations thing but then

you come back with that uh so let me get to let me get to my eight bets that i wrote down and i want you to tell me would you make them and then we can have discussions so four are kind of around the league and then four regard the Vikings. I want to start out with this. Patrick Mahomes for the rest of his career, would you bet that he wins over one and a half more Super Bowls? I'm going to say after this year, I would bet the over. In some ways, I'm including this year as kind of that calculation.

But the way in which he kind of, I i would say arrived at the big stage once again losing tyreek hill kind of being banged up like not having the receiving unit that very much you know a lot of other quarterbacks would need in football like i think it speaks to uh almost and i don't think longevity is the right word but a way in which that he can continue to kind of perform and bring the team to be like the best team in football and not necessarily have a lot of auxiliary pieces around him. So I think you definitely have to be, I would say, more bullish on his long-term outlook,

given kind of how he has arrived at it throughout the playoffs. And I very much think that, you know, for that reason, like the bullish case, I would say is, you know, quite high still for Patrick Mahomes and something that you know very much could see him winning you know two or three or even four more Super Bowls here uh before he'd really you know take caters off under the you know the less prime time of his career I would say yeah I mean think about like just when he got in the league in 2018 they had one of the worst defenses in the entire NFL, and they were a play or two away from beating Tom Brady

and maybe a bad call or two away. So for the NFL has rigged people, they were rigging it against him back then. And now apparently they're rigging it for him. But, I mean, he was that close with a horrendous defense. So they improved their defense. They win the Super Bowl. Then he gets this close with the horrendous offensive line, kind of overcomes that, gets to the Super Bowl.

They improve that. Now he's back. I mean, it's really remarkable how he cannot be, like, pushed off of being in championship weekend, almost no matter what else happens. Because if you took even the 10th best quarterback in the NFL and took away Tyreek Hill from them, they're probably like a 10-win or a nine win team. And they're not playing in championship weekend because there just

wouldn't be enough weapons for them. And yet, I don't know what the word is actually. It's like, there's probably a word for it, but just this immovable object, like he's going to be there one way or the other. So it's almost crazy to bet any player to win more than one even when they're in the super bowl i mean almost anyone like that made a super bowl you would say like oh they'll probably never get back because that's just the odds and yet for him he's so much different than anybody else that you'd ever be betting yeah and it is 100 true and it is like this idea of like he's kind of always found a way to be there. Maybe he hasn't gotten, you know, all the breaks. But when he hasn't gotten all the breaks, they've still very much had the opportunities.

And I would say, you know, going back to last week's game, like they recruited a better team. But Cincinnati did kind of have, you know, did have the ball with under two minutes to go, you know, with tie game with Joel Burrow. You know, really only needed a field goal to probably win that matchup. They did convert a third and 16 and still kind of probably get in the field goal range. And I just think when you are a quarterback that can continuously at least have your team in those sort of situations, like you're going to end up ahead even if, you know, a few of the breaks and a few of the games and a few of the years don't even go your way. So and I also think like there is you know specifically with patch mahomes compared to where everyone else is right now like we've already seen them kind of

navigate where he's at on you know the veteran contract and he's very much locked in long term and they can kind of you know maybe try some different things from a team building perspective to build around him and see what's going to provide him to be the most successful but the one team i think that can kind of have that experimentation now with the understanding that he is going to be a lead quarterback whereas you know the joe burrows you know of the world and everything else even the philadelphia eagles like they're still they're still figuring out how good these guys are going to potentially be on a veteran on a veteran contract and when they don't have all these pieces in place around them right so i think that that's probably the the main reason why i would be you know so bullish on his long-term outlook even though like you said like

uh you know even with him playing in the super bowl there very much is probably a number of reasons why you shouldn't take the over 1.5 in that scenario i'm sure you're excited to hear if he loses as someone who is from minnesota that he can't win the big games. Guaranteed to be the narrative if he doesn't win this one. Okay, I like that one too. And I think that it just sort of speaks to him as this complete outlier that maybe is different from almost anyone in history except for what? Like literally Tom Brady in the way that you view him? How many teams the that did

brady play on that had completely different rosters that turned over everyone around him and yet it was still him of course he did let a little air out of the ball so that probably was the only reason that he was able to do that um but uh i mean it's it's amazing how like there's only a couple of these players really through history that have this type of effect, and he's one of them. The next one I had for you is, would you bet that anyone except for Brock Purdy or Trey Lance is playing quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers next year? I mean, before this morning when I woke up and found out that Tom Brady was retired, I would have at least considered him to be a potential option there. I know a lot of people listening are going to be Vikings backers and supporters. And I do think there's a reasonably good case for me being excited if they somehow got Kirk Cousins involved in the 49ers, you know, quarterback search, but I would be very surprised if like anybody else kind of,

you know, they still have, I would say a ton of remaining questions about Trey Lance to the point where, you know, they're going to want to keep him on the roster for another season, not necessarily, you know, sell low on his potential, especially given what they gave up. So I think he's there next year. Obviously Brock Purdy should very much be there. I know his, you know, the surplus value on his contract already is, you know, more than pay for it even you know what he provided through eight or nine games for them this season but I think he's going to be in the fold but the the the more interesting question is you know given the injury considerations and everything else like who's actually starting for them at the end of the season but I would be um you know I would say

shocked to say that it I would be very surprised if like Trey Lance didn't have at least some opportunities to start football games in the regular season next year so my bet would be on the no I do think it's probably going to be just Brock Purdy and Trey Lance and trying to figure out how good Kyle Shanahan could be with either one of those guys yeah I mean because Trey Lance will be at full health by that point, and you can plan on him being your quarterback. And then whenever Brock Purdy is ready, if you need to turn to Brock Purdy, you can. And what we've seen from that team is even if Trey Lance was not good, they would probably still win half their games anyway, assuming that

they don't have any catastrophic things happen to them before the beginning of next season. Like that roster is mostly going to stay together. and this is an injury that Brock Purdy has that other quarterbacks have had it's not exactly like a baseball player having it but even when baseball players have Tommy John they just come back and they're really good pitchers again so I assume that if they do think that Brock Purdy can really be their guy that he'll be ready to go by some point next season and be able to step back in. But there's always that in the back of my mind, like teams get anxious when they get close and then they do stuff. And with Cousins, I can't make it work in my head, though,

because the Vikings would have to trade him there. And if you're the Vikings, are you in a position to be like, oh yeah, fellow NFC team, who I think they're going to play next year. Here's a good quarterback that you were able to be as good as you were with Brock Purdy. Why don't you have an even better quarterback? Why would you do that? Plus the salary cap considerations. The 49ers are going to have their cap.

And a lot of players that have been good for them get expensive next year I just can't like make that happen but that love affair between Shanahan and Cousins just always kind of rests over everything right it very much just lingers as like I don't know if it's a pipe dream for some or a nightmare for others but it very much always seems to have you know some sort of connection and we see that across the league but kind of going back to it I know, I know you mentioned an interesting point about Trey Lance specifically and how he wouldn't even really need to be all that great for them to arrive at even an above 500 record with him kind of starting.

But I do think there is an interesting floor that Trey Lance can provide, especially with his legs and that offense where he probably – if he was asked to make a lot of the same throws that Brock Purdy was asked to make down the stretch and then also provided, you know, a little bit in the rushing attack. And he was kind of opening up things in a way that we've seen, you know, more dynamic or other dynamic quarterbacks kind of open up things for their running back like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. Like that kind of, you know, adds an interesting wrinkle to that offense as well and I think one is one of the main reasons why they went up and actually made the move for

him when he did so I still think there's even you know if he doesn't end up being a you know a top five or top ten passing quarterback there is still a number of ways or levers that I think Kyle Shanahan could still have a really successful offense with him kind of running the show so I do think it's bullish and I know like the cousins thing is it's unfortunate and you know his contract and everything else just doesn't make a ton of sense but it's uh it's a definitely a spot where i agree with you like the vikings seem like even though maybe they shouldn't they should very much they very much are probably setting up to kind of run back where they were you know once again this season i would say so yeah with trade lance there was a report that

they might try to trade him and just roll with purdy which obviously kind of goes out the window with that injury but it didn't really make sense to me anyway um if they were going to trade him and the reported price was something like a third round pick it was like what why would you do that why wouldn't you just keep trey lance i mean unless someone was going to back up the brinks truck of draft capital and give you a first round pick for him and you were a hundred percent sold on Brock Purdy which I don't know how you could be it's a great run but we've seen other guys have great runs that were not truly great quarterbacks so none of that really made sense to me it makes much more sense to just roll with it

I just like there's scenarios that run through your head, though, the Brady coming back right before training camp. Hey, everybody, I'm back. Or, you know, Derek Carr ends up there somehow or like you just kind of have no idea. But I think the most logical one is that either one of those guys is starting from day one. How about this one? Sean Payton and his time as a Denver Bronco more than one and a half playoff wins in his entire tenure as a Denver Bronco head coach. I should have looked at, I would say, some more specifics related to his contract. I'm sure those details aren't out there yet, but this one's tough. I mean, this one, I think if you were kind of like just looking at, you know, from a marriage perspective or whatever, like going the Sean Payton route with Russell Wilson and the contract and given where they're at and everything else and kind of where I believe that

Patrick Holmes very much is going to be and also kind of where Justin Herbert is, even if the Raiders take a couple steps back, even from where they were, I think it's still a really difficult path for the Broncos. So I'm probably going under 1.5. I guess I'm just not a believer in the Peyton Wilson situation really resolving so well that they can, I would say, wrap as actual contenders in the AFC. I just have a tough time seeing Russell Wilson being a different version than what he was last year. Where does that come from? Because

the athleticism is basically gone. he was playing with an injury uh that we didn't know about that is 100 healed but usually when you're in your mid-30s and i know this quite well if you get the smallest injury it kind of lingers that's what makes tom brady so ridiculous um but uh yeah you know i mean uh just playing rec league basketball takes me like three days to recover so i totally relate to to Russell Wilson, a star pro athlete. But I mean, Donovan McNabb was a good example of this to tie it into Minnesota. When he was the same age as Russell Wilson, he was playing as a Viking and he was a hysterical disaster after being one of the great athletes at his position or running quarterback, a

playmaker. So if that element is not there, then you're talking about a pocket quarterback Russell Wilson which is just not Russell Wilson it's not who he is what made him great was his ability to to make plays out of structure and to scramble so I have a tough time thinking that Sean Payton just dials up the the old Drew Brees package and he can operate the same way because Brees was always a pocket quarterback, and he was never a big-armed guy going downfield. He was just a version of himself that was throwing the ball a little slower as he went along.

And not only that, but Brees also, I mean, to me, he's a much better quarterback than Wilson, but he also knew that offense for years and years and years and years. Now Wilson's got to learn another offense that's built for him. I have a tough time with that one. I also think that Sean Payton probably just came for the money. I mean, because there's no objective look at that Denver team to be like, oh, yeah, oh, this is on the way there.

Probably just like, oh, $20 million? Yeah, okay, I'll get some skis. Right. It's interesting. I do think how they land at the defensive coordinator position whether they go with fangio or whether you know they keep a guy uh you know who they have now and is your own varro but i i think it's the point that i was thinking about and kind of you basically touched on it was like the the ways in which russell wilson was actually successful previously

like in seattle and stuff was very much on these like almost yolo deep ball type shots or whatever that he could sling 40 yards up in the air and 40 yards down and kind of drop it in the bucket and like that's never been Sean Payton's offense right I know you know Drew Brees was very much limited in that regard but it's very low a dot it's being accurate and I think those are the two spots that Wilson was really really poor you know I would say especially this season like not being able to complete those throws or even, you know, come anywhere close. So like, there's just, there's a, there's too many question marks, I would say, to really buy into them, figuring it out, especially given the, you know, the deepness of the AFC. But I think you, I think you touched on it, like the, the fit just seems odd, even though, you know, looking at it from the top down view, it probably makes a lot of sense. But when you dig into some of the scheme based things, there's there's a lot I would say kind of dislike about both sides of that, I would say. And I just don't see them coming across receivers who are good enough to be the DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett that he had.

Like those guys are just hard to replace. And I think both of those guys fall into the category of just below Devontae Adams, Justin Jefferson, but in that second tier elite receivers. And he had two of them. And that does make a big difference. So I'm not buying this, even though I do think Sean Payton is a good coach. On a Minnesota sports podcast, you can only go that far because there's a lot of dislike there for sean payton and i understand it how about this one speaking of dislike for minnesota sports fans the lions bears and packers would you bet any of those teams to make a super bowl by 2026

2000 man you're putting a lot of pressure on restore the roar right here i don't know i honestly like and going back to the vikings discussion and stuff but like if you look around like maybe outside of green bay if they don't get rid of aaron rogers but it's very hard to not say that you know detroit and chicago are both going to be probably way better than what they were even at this year so i would be although i think it's probably a pretty tall task i also think that the nfc is down enough to the point where one or two you know one of these teams can potentially make a surprise run and do it i i think if you gave me a little bit further of an extended out window i would buy into um you know the bears specifically just because i i do think

that you know justin fields can kind of turn it around. And if they do decide to stockpile other opportunities with other positions and he does kind of hit in that third or fourth year, their window is probably, I would say, open for a number of years. I do still think for as much love as some people like to give Jared Goff, I think there is probably a question of how good he's going to be long term, especially if they don't have Ben Johnson in the fold. I know he's signed on for next year, but i think when he kind of steps away like they there could be a pretty big shift for um for the lions offensively so i i although i would say

maybe probably you know decently bullish on the both the lions and the bears i think the answer is still probably no um to get there in 2026 i think the bears are probably going to need a couple more years and still very much probably have too many question marks for me to really feel confident about them arriving probably ahead of schedule at that point. Yeah, and I'm trying to figure out also still along with the rest of the world and the Chicago Bears what Justin Fields really is because last year he had a Vince Young season where his passing was still pretty bad and his running was spectacular and they were able to stay competitive in games because his running was great but that always has a ceiling on it if you can't at least throw competently

but also offensive line receivers like all those things they were horrendous about as bad as you can set up somebody who's only in his second year and just looking back historically i looked at all the rookies second years back to like 2000 or something and it was really kind of inconclusive through two years through three years total different story you knew who everybody was going to be through three years as quarterbacks so next year should tell us a lot more i think they could at best have a jaguars like season next year where we go like oh that's a team on the rise but we're probably not saying they're there yet but with the cap space they have man i mean they can spend and

spend around justin fields almost as much as they want for probably a couple of years uh but they'll have to hit on some draft picks i I'm not entirely sold on that. Isn't Jared Goff one of the weirdest quarterbacks ever? I mean, nobody ever thinks he's a number one pick. No one ever thinks of him as being great. And when you watch him, you never think like, whoa. But at the same time, he's led three offenses in the top five in scoring in his career. and uh you know last year you could look at as an anomaly because they were trying to lose i i guess i've always wanted to give him more credit

than say like the pff graders who have never really liked what they've seen from jared goff there is something about the guy being able to operate what he's asked to do even if sometimes it's not pretty in particular with like his accuracy could be a bit off or some of the plays are just awful but it's it's very garoppolo-ish where it's like the production though is is very good from jared goff yeah the the production holds true like the epa perspective obviously there's like an element of the you know the play calling and everyone thinks you know the sean mcbays or you know the the gods of the play calling and all this stuff, but the high

yards after the catch stuff I think probably gets overstated. Obviously, playing with guys like Cooper Cuff or whatever can help that, but he's had pieces for sure at the wide receiver position, but I'm in agreement with you in the fact that he probably hasn't gotten

enough credit still removed from the play calling and removed from the yards after the catch to the point where he is operating really well from an EPA perspective. So I agree with you. I think where they end up and if they can potentially put a team around him and pay him still and hit on some of the draft picks, I think is still a question mark. So I would maybe lean more in the, you know, probably more in the PFF grading perspective and outlook of, you know, Jared Goff than you would. But I do think that at least some consideration for, you know, just how well he's done outside of the, you know, the obvious factors that people always point to for why he's been so

successful is definitely, you know, valid. When he has an offensive line in front of him, he's legit great. If he could sit back there and throw, he can be accurate. He can be extremely sharp. He can operate whatever. But if anybody moves him off his spot, it's like Drew Bledsoe-esque to me. If anybody moves him off his spot, just forget about it. That's not happening. But if he can stand right there and step and throw, he's as good as anybody in the NFL and I think the way they built their offensive line gives them a chance to be a legitimate contender next year depending on what they do this offseason but I think the roar has been restored and they're on their way Chicago is much more variance when it

comes to that and Green Bay I really have no idea I think you know if they hit on Love, they're in a weird position to then have to pay him instantly, which then makes everything so much harder. And a lot of their players are getting older who are keys guys for them. But if Christian Watson becomes great, maybe there's a chance. I just see them as being like behind the other teams that recently tanked. On to a couple of the Vikings ones here. Would you bet that this offseason, Justin Jefferson signs a deal worth more than $30 million per year average annual value this offseason? I think so. I honestly think they're going to do it. I think they kind of have to in a lot of ways as well. And I think that the dollar figure in APY is only going to go up. So if they do want to lock in, I would say Jefferson,

this is kind of the offseason to do it. He's definitely shown that he's very much going to be the best receiver in football over that contract length. So I think just giving it to him, figuring out the rest later, maybe still trying to resolve the – I don't want to call it a situation at quarterback but you know the multiple year outlook for how they're going to actually have a guy maybe even if it's a guy on the rookie deal um to potentially pair with them like that's that's all questions I

want to answer probably after locking in Justin Jefferson long term so I I like the play I hope it happens I think it needs to happen at this point for Vikings fans as well. I've been telling you guys about liquid death all football season, and there's a good reason why, because it's great. You might think that it wouldn't make a difference whether water was in a can or a bottle, but I promise you that it does. I never drank water before because I just didn't like the way it tasted,

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You can find this water revolution at Target, Hy-Vee, 7-Eleven, and more. Go to liquiddeath.com slash insider. Liquiddeath.com slash insider. I think they go to him with a blank check, but my question is whether he signs it because it's a guarantee for him that he will make money and catch passes. But is it a guarantee that he wants to be a Viking and do those things? Is it a guarantee that he wants to stay here through whatever they draft as a quarterback? And then it's, it's a little chicken and egg, right? Like if you're a quarterback in college, if you're Anthony Richardson or Tanner McKee or whoever,

and you get picked and you get to throw to Jefferson, you're probably going to be a lot better than you would if you threw to whoever the hell that, uh, Valis Jones was throwing to this year or something, or you know justin fields but yeah but then if you're jefferson and you're like wait you guys are going to draft a quarterback i don't know if he's going to be good i don't know if i want that guy you know if i waste three years of my career because you guys draft the next zach wilson then what i i could see him saying i'd rather wait another year and see where this franchise stands than play this out. And I don't know how he feels about Kirk Cousins.

I think that he's always been a defender of Kirk Cousins. But at the same time, he's never seen the second round of the playoffs. And I think that he wants that as well. And that's tied to the quarterback. And the money is tied to the quarterback. How could you sign Cousins to a five-year extension and make him a viking for the rest of his career if you're also going to pay jefferson and derisaw two of the highest paid positions like this just doesn't work out so if you're him i think you want to know where you stand before you put the pen to paper yeah it is

really interesting because i think the the key for me is not understanding where he's actually at with kurt cousins because like you said like publicly he has very much said, probably as much as you could expect, and very much been a vocal supporter of him. But if he doesn't buy into Cousins even long term, he could balk this offseason. But I think if he doesn't balk, it might not be that he's completely committed to Kirk Cousins, but at least he understands that he can maybe get to where he wants to go with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. So it is an interesting dichotomy for me.

I do think that I probably would have expected him to sign it and maybe was viewing it more as the Vikings need to make the decision. But how he evaluates where this quarterback, where they're going to go at quarterback very much is kind of going to be the litmus test for whether he actually signs it or not this season. But I think that that very much, you know, has to play into the Vikings direction, both this offseason and how they want to approach next year as well, too. Right. So it's a lot of interesting and that and that's why it's like it's so weird to know you know to be on with the vikings because it's like they they very much have such a wide range of outcomes for where they could land at next year and then they're like you know it's more of the same or something too right so um it's definitely an interesting

discussion i would say what a perfect lead into my next bet which is Vikings over under nine and a half wins for next season I'm gonna take the under I have to I may I mean I think you know given the you know the the schedule basically is gonna obviously gonna be difficult playing you know the first seeds of the other divisions um I do think that the NFC North also got a lot better. And like there is, I think for Vikings fans that do want to maybe play the long-term game or whatever, like there is a pretty strong case or underline for why you don't want to go 8-9 or whatever, right? And you in some ways don't want to go like 6-11 either, basically. Like you kind of want to be, you know, 3 and 14 or something next year and have the high draft pick and be able to choose a guy like Caleb Williams or Drake May and very much you know answer that question for Justin

Jefferson at quarterback or kind of swing the other way and to me like they're just they're they're not you know especially with how they you know landed at the end of this season. They're just not... Even in a week down NFC, I just don't see outside of a number of breaks for them actually getting through to the Super Bowl. And I think if that's your goal, if that's your goal is just to make it to another first round or second round playoff exit, it's probably time to go the direction of the most pain in the shortest outlook and then kind of arrive where you want to get to after those dark days, I would say. I mean, if you think about it, this year,

their point differential suggested they were more like an eight or nine win team. And that doesn't mean you didn't win the games and that we all didn't have a lot of fun covering them. But if they were to play this, even this version of the team next year against the schedule they're going to face, which is a lot harder than this year's schedule, you're talking about probably a six or seven win football team if they run a lot of the same things back and then people are older. So they have to make some major overhaul types of changes and they have to be ready for a setback. But you could also see them trying another zadarius smith like move or patrick peterson like move like hey it worked for us last year so let's just get a veteran this

or a veteran that or hey we'll draft this and i'm sure that guy will step in right away even though a lot of times the rookies do not step in and make a huge impact right away um you could see them taking that approach and getting to like eight or nine wins or even 10, depending on how things play out, because if Fields is horrendous and you get two wins there or Jordan Love stinks and you get a couple wins there, like I could see 10 wins. And when I get a final look at it before I pick the schedule, I probably will pick 10 wins. Just knowing the way that this team has always sort of operated with well we're gonna cobble together these free agents and i promise our draft picks will be better and this player

will be better next year and kirk sort of sets a floor for you so i think that if you're picking it you'd be only picking to probably get to 10 at this very moment where everything can still change but the under makes a lot more sense right yeah there's no doubt about it i mean like all the cases i i think like like you said like in the most bullish cases it's like it is squeaking out 10 wins right and it is very much there because like they they they don't have a ton of they don't have a ton of options outside of like in some ways tearing it down defensively as well right and then running it back you know hopefully hoping guys like louis sign are like backing in the fold and hoping some of these younger you know cornerbacks can very much figure it out in a new defensive scheme but

like they they they have maybe a little bit of flexibility but there's just not a lot out there at key positions that they really want to go after from you know the the veteran market and you know even zero smith like really high you know, the veteran market. And, you know, even Zeratier Smith, like really high, you know, pressure rate, everything else, but just like, you know, kind of wasn't there from a sacks perspective in the latter half of the season. Right. So it's like they hit and they help, but there has to be, I would say, especially from the front office, the understanding and viewpoint that the record was what it was last year,

but it probably isn't the perfect reflection of where this team is currently at and what we can expect from that team again in 2023, I would say. And I think the reason that you hire Kweisi Adafomensa is to realize that and not Dave Gettleman, who might not. Okay, two more real quick. Vikings draft a quarterback. What odds would you put on it? Any round quarterback? Well, how about we go first round or second round? First round, okay. So first round quarterback. Any round they probably will.

Yeah, I would say pretty low. I mean, at that range where they're at, it feels like it's only kind of like an Anthony Richardson sort of choice, I would say, because it is a little bit of like a dead zone from the court. You know, like the latter half of the first round kind of, unless there's like nobody really at the top, it always seems to kind of, you know, be this dead zone towards the end. So I would say probably under 15 percent chance the drafted quarterback under

10 percent chance to draft a quarterback is my read but I do think they're going to go late round I think like the Nick Mullins trade and everything else kind of signaled like he is like the short-term you know backup but they very much need to and should draft somebody who at least I would say kind of of fill in that backup gap for sure. I just hope that I don't hear anyone say, we're looking for the next Brock Purdy. Right. You'll hear it.

You'll hear it. Just like in Jalen Hurts' year, it was everyone was talking about, you know, we could use a Taysom Hill type. This guy's a real Taysom Hill type, and I haven't heard that since because Taysom Hill doesn. This guy's a real Taysom Hill type, and I haven't heard that since because Taysom Hill doesn't matter that much. But, you know, I think that you're probably in the right ballpark. I also think that you hired Kweisi Adafomensa to do the smartest things for your franchise, and the smartest thing might be to trade up to 15

or whatever and get the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board because in recent years that has not meant that you get the worst quarterback and sometimes it's even meant you get the best quarterback and that was definitely the case with someone like lamar jackson i i think that that makes so much sense and they're in a rare position where you actually could let the guy sit for a year and then move on from kirk cousins but it also just feels very pipe dreamy compared to what they've done because for years there's been a case to do this and every year it was the same like well we need a corner we need a guard yeah realize that there's nothing more important than this right i mean that and that's

it and honestly like you mentioned it though right like lamar jack, like he was there at the end of the first round, probably the only one that like kind of hit there and like kind of made sense. And like the Vikings very much didn't have the solution at the quarterback position or whatever. Right. And it's like the more you at least take those swings of the bat, like the better opportunity you have to at least find that guy. Right. And if you're not willing to even swing the bat, like that's on you. And I do think it goes back to Questy and i do think it goes back to like you know he obviously

understands the opportunity to draft a quarterback you know especially maybe in that range and so that would should and probably does provide some signal that the odds should be a little bit higher than what i what i projected but it's still a spot where it seems like unless they do give up some draft capital and get up to i would say even before 15 or something uh unless they identify something in a guy that you know you know that you know they very much believe in like i i just don't i just don't see them making that risk given the current state i would would say. Okay, last one for you. Would you bet that Kweisi Adafo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell get second contracts as the Vikings head coach and general manager? I will bet, yeah, I do think so.

You know, this is obviously like a pretty big inflection point already, I would say, in some ways for that. But I do think there's a path to them even having a down year and kind of resetting and maybe not having to go through the complete rebuild and then being you know on the verge of the playoffs once again in 2024 very much like in contention with teams like green bay and teams like detroit and teams like chicago so i think we see it i do i you know i was really bullish on the, the, how it kind of landed last year for both of them. I did think like, you know, the marriage between them two or whatever, like seemed to make a lot of sense.

And I think, you know, after year one, you know, they exceeded expectations in seemingly every single way. So I think you have to buy into that. And I think that, you know, they definitely identified Questy as the guy who can figure out the the long-term solution at quarterback so giving them the the opportunities to actually do that i think is in the best case of you know vikings and vikings fans so i would i would love to see it and i do probably bet it to happen you know at greater than even odds i would say right now i think so too and i think that as long as the culture is generally good the ownership is patient and uh they really seem to only want to step in with Zimmer and Spielman after things got very toxic uh in the front office rather than even

just the winning part of it that was what seemed to put them over the edge and with these guys I think they've they've gotten that down a little bit better however uh losing destroys everyone's soul so if they if that that that's what it really comes down to to me is that I think this offseason will determine that. Because if they don't nail this offseason, and I'm not even saying the direction that I think is right will determine that, they might run it back and be great again. But if they fall apart this offseason and don't have a good draft and don't pick up good free agents that work for them long term or don't manage the cap well or don't manage the quarterback situation or don't manage Justin Jefferson there's so many things resting on this offseason alone that you are going to go one way

or the other and if they go into the mediocrity route because they don't handle it well then they might not get second contracts I think there's a reason why they went short-term with both guys, because it was kind of like, we're going to throw you into the fire and see what happens, but not lock ourselves in for six, seven, eight years, like with some other head coaches or with general managers. A fascinating situation, Ben. Let me close on this. Who's going to win the Super Bowl, you think?

So I know I'm going against our guy, Eric Eager, but I do think the Eagles. It's kind of an interesting matchup, I would say, because very much like we said, the Pachma Holmes, top quarterback, everything else, versus the team that can very much get there. But I think Jalen Hurts can provide enough. I also think that the Chiefs receiving situation is maybe more dire from an injury perspective than what we expected so I just think that you know the Eagles can once again kind of play bully ball I like

their matchup you know along the interior offense line and at the edges as well from a run perspective so I think they're going to be able to establish it early and I think that if they do like outside of some completely brilliant performance from Patrick Mahomes I think the expectation has to be that they win it. So I like the Eagles. I like them by a field goal or touchdown, but I also think it could maybe get a little bit out of hand here as well, kind of like the previous two playoff games have. When you said a brilliant performance by Mahomes,

I'm going to make that bet. I'm just going to put it. I'm just going to do that. He's getting my Brady rule where I never bet against Brady, you know, just because he's Brady. And even when it's 28 to three, you're like,

well, he probably could at PFF underscore Ben Brown on Twitter, master chief, chief officer of operating innovations or whatever for PFF. No, you do. You do great stuff. You're good. Follow on Twitter. And I really appreciate you coming out. What is the actual title again? celebrating innovations or whatever for pff no you do uh you do great stuff you're a good follow

on twitter and uh i really appreciate you coming out what is the actual title again yeah so pff underscore ben brown twitter yeah head of betting innovation it probably deserves to be made fun of so i i can definitely i didn't get to i didn't get to name uh the title at least i did try to but it was uh yeah company man, I guess, for sure. Great stuff. Well, good, good to connect with a Minnesota gone, Iowa, such as yourself. And we'll do it again soon, man. Great to talk with you. For sure. Yeah. Awesome. I appreciate it. Anytime. This was a pleasure. Thanks Matt.

All right. Before we wrap up the show, just wanted to bring you guys a bonus interview in which i had a chance to talk with fox sports rules analyst dean blandino when i was filling in on wcco radio earlier this week and had a really fun conversation so here is myself and dean blandino all right back here in for henry lake matthew collar with you and we welcome in rules analyst from Fox Sports, Dean Blandino. I'm going to start off in a place where I'm going to guess you don't get too many people starting off interviews, Dean. I want to talk about the XFL and what you guys did with the XFL because I know you're involved in that. And I loved it, and I loved it.

I loved that there were some new things tried in that league. And one of them was more transparency with the rules. And when I see people losing their minds and things like that on Twitter and saying the league is rigged and all this crazy stuff, one thing I think about was how great that was to have a better understanding of what was going on with the rules in the XFL. And I know maybe not every fan saw it who watches the NFL, but I would, I would love to hear you talk about your guys process in that. And if there's any chance we could see more things like it, like inside the booth with the replays and hearing what the referees were

talking about, I would love to see more of that in the NFL. No question. We're really excited. We felt like XFL in 2020, we had more transparency than really any level of football, any game that was broadcasted for people to watch. And we're going to expand on that. And you really hit the nail on the head in that when you don't see the process,

when you don't know what's going on, that's when people start to come up with these conspiracy theories and all of these different things. But when you can watch it and see it and hear it, it's just you get a better understanding. You may not always agree with the rule or the decision, but you don't walk away with questions as to why or how it happened. And that's something that we felt was really important with a new league and trying to get people engaged. And we're going to see more of it. You know, I don't know if the NFL, the NFL has such a long history and tradition, and there's a lot of that legacy that makes it harder to just, hey, we're going to pull back the curtain completely. Right. I think, I think the NFL needs to look at that in, in some way, especially as it pertains to officiating, because look,

there's a lot of talk. You have the games on Sunday where there were some controversial calls and then you get fans of one team or, or the other team, they're saying, well, the officials are out to get us, you know, there's a, there's, you know, they don't like our team or whatever it may be. And if the NFL would be more transparent, people would see, look, I was part of the NFL for a very long time. And there's no – the officials want to get it right more than anyone.

It's just – it's a fast game. It happens really quick, and the officials are human, and sometimes they make mistakes. So what is the hold up i mean on that i mean we are we are in a world though where you know nfl films will take us to the sideline and we can listen to patrick mahomes beg to go back in the game when he gets injured but it seems like they're very protective of the refs and i think that's right to some extent because they get attacked constantly and it's a impossible task to get everything right. And you know what? You're right that 32 of 32 fan bases thinks the refs are out to get them. So I guess how could it be that every team, anyway, that's not the point, but, but, but are there reasonable

steps that you could see actually happening? I know that we're never going to get every single thing that we want to hear from the referees, but it feels like there could be more. There definitely could be more. And I think it's still a holdover from old school thinking before the Internet, before everyone had more access to video and information, and where you could just kind of ignore the media or ignore that kind of push towards getting more information about officiating. But those days are over. The access, like you said, we're listening to what Patrick Mahomes is saying on the sideline.

We're seeing all of these different things, and everyone has a platform. And I think the league has taken some steps, and they're on Twitter, NFL officiating is on Twitter, and they do tweet out from time to time. But I think sometimes you can gain credibility if you come out and admit a mistake. And I don't think you can do that. You can't do that every game, right? You can't say, well, we missed 10 calls this game

because that undermines the credibility of the officials. And you also have officials that, you know, you have to continue to keep in a good place because they're going to go out and work the following week and we want them to be successful. But I think there's an opportunity to just be more transparent. And if there is a missed call, hey, we missed this. Here's why.

Here's what we're doing to correct it and and i think people will they might not feel completely great about it but i think they'll feel a little bit better to where they can let it go and move on versus just nothing and then they're wondering what happened fox sports rules analyst dean blandino joining us here on the john schuster caldwell bankwell uh bankerline. I bet everyone does that. So I wanted to ask what holding is because I would love to understand that. But I also wanted to comment that I can't imagine what the NFL officiating Twitter's mentions look like every weekend on Sunday.

Oh, my God. Whoever runs that, the poor social media person is probably an intern. Go on there. If you want a good laugh, go on there after they tweet something and just read. I mean, I get it on my people still think that I make decisions. I'm just commenting on it and people still think. So my comments are pretty funny. The comments on that Twitter handle are really good.

Yes. And if you explain what happened, then you're just defending the refs because you're part of the ref Illuminati and all that sort of stuff. Yeah. A hundred percent. I'm an accomplice. No, no doubt.

But I would, I just think that there are some rules in the NFL that are so difficult for the referees to call that the answer feels like more replay. But then when they tried to do pass interference replay, that was kind of a mess and holding interference and also every time somebody falls on the quarterback a little too much then sometimes we get a flag sometimes we don't get a flag and i think that that if we could resolve some of that it would eliminate maybe 75 percent of the crazy tweets that go to

nfl officiating and and i don't know what the answer is, but maybe you've got a better solution there. Well, I think it's a balance. And I think we've seen the league take some steps to introduce more replay. I felt like pass interference was a complete and total disaster. You know, anytime you had a rule because of one play, and look, it was a big play. We get it. It was the nsc championship game and in you know the saints should have been in the super bowl we get that but it's one play and

then you change a rule and we got to see how it's so hard to review those plays because the rules are written so officials can make decisions in real time at full speed and then whenever you use slow motion to review something, you're always going to distort it to some extent. But I think there are opportunities. Like you mentioned the quarterback. Is there a set of player safety rules, whether it's rough in the past or hits on defenseless players, where there's some objective part of that call?

You know, did he hit the player in the head and neck area? Those types of things that could be reviewable. They do it in college with targeting. I think you can do that. I think you can introduce and they're doing a good job with, with expediting these reviews and being more efficient, but there's a balance because I don't think anyone wants to watch a game where every time an official makes a call, we're getting word from

upstairs that they've got to correct something or moving the ball a half yard or correcting the clock. Cause then you have just so many interruptions in the game and it just, it's not a fun game to watch. So I think there's a balance. I think technology will continue to improve. It's going to improve at a, at a much faster rate than, than, than human beings. You know, their eyesight isn't going to change. They still have to move and get in position to see different things. So I think it's a balance of using technology, using it, you know, efficiently, but also not overusing it where it interrupts the game too much.

That's a great point because basketball and baseball both suffer with this, with the replay, where if somebody bops somebody else in the head a little bit too hard, it's like, whoa, everybody stop the game. And I've been in the arena when this happens. It's just miserable. It's just like, is he bleeding? It's fine. Everybody move on.

And with baseball, oh, well, it was a bang, bang play at first. And now we're going to stop the whole game and challenge it and everything else. And it's just a terrible experience. But I have been a pro sky judge person. I think that if we had just things that sky judge, if, if you will, could look at. And one of those things is definitely with the quarterback, because it's such a significant penalty when someone hits the quarterback too

hard and they throw a flag and it's happening so fast. Like I think of the, the Chris Jones one where i could understand how that referee would have thought that chris jones threw his body on the quarterback uh but he didn't like just in in getting another look at it so i think that if there was a set of certain things that they could look at uh and it was only those things it would be better and you know what i think dean that the nfl might have the budget for this. I think. I don't know if they have enough.

No, they definitely have the budget. Budget's not a problem. It's just how much they're willing to spend on officiating. But you're right. And I think that that's the thing. What we've learned with replay, and this goes back to 1999, I was involved with bringing replay back into the nfl and we had a small set of reviewable plays and and it was limited but every year something

happened and then you add to it right and then you continue to add to it and now if you look at the replay rule compared to what it was in 1999 it's so much more extensive. And that's always the concern with, yes, the good intentions. We want to start with a small group of plays, rough on the pass or whatever it may be. But then somebody's going to miss a face mask. And then we're going to say, well, why can't we review that? Or that was a defensive hold. We should be able to review that. And then you just expand. And then at some

point, right, the simplest thing to do is just say, Hey, coaches get three challenges per game. You have three timeouts challenge or whatever you want. It has to be obvious to change it. And it's simple and cleaner. Um, and it's limited. I don't know. I think we, we, we keep continue to creep in that direction. And at some point we're're going to have to say, what is replay designed for? Is it designed to correct everything or is it designed to correct the obvious mistake in a significant situation? And the basic premise going in back in 99 and even prior to that was fix the obvious mistake in the significant situation. But we've drifted further and further away from that. Right.

And you brought up a good point earlier just about, you know, being reactive to things and seeing one play happen and then everybody kind of gets the pitchforks out. And I would imagine it's hard even for Raj if he's on Twitter, like looking at what everyone's saying, this league's got all these problems. And I was watching something the other day where it was like the full-time ref thing just keeps people keep pounding the table. And I've never felt like that has to really be something that's just going to fix things.

I also think, Dean, and I'd be interested in your opinion, I think it's always going to be impossible to get everything right. And we just have to accept that you have to outplay the other team. And sometimes it's not always going to be fair. Like this, it's, this is a sport that's going to try its hardest, but it's never going to be perfect.

No, you're absolutely right. And sometimes we forget. And there's, there's three groups of people that affect games, right? Coaches, players,

and officials. But the officials are the only ones that are held to a standard of perfection, right? We players drop passes. The coaches make the wrong call. You know, every play, if everybody does what they're supposed to do, it's supposed to be a touchdown, right?

But we know not every play is a touchdown. And so somebody missed an assignment somewhere, or somebody missed a tackle on that big touchdown run. But officials are the only ones that are expected to be perfect, and they're going to make mistakes too. And if you look at it over the course of a game, they make the fewest mistakes, you know, from coaches and players. But, again, we're always focusing on those handful of plays each game

where either the officials made a mistake or we didn't agree with the call. Yeah, I don't want to come off as too pro-ref in a football conversation here, because of course Vikings fans think that the refs are out to get them, and they cheer for the Packers, and all those things. But for one summer, I umpired 16- to 18-year-olds

playing baseball, and oh my God, Dean. This is so hard. The first pitch, the batter swung at it so hard. I mean, the first, the first pitch, the batter swung at it and it went back to the backstop and I was like, ball. Like I didn't even see the guy. So like, just, it is so, it is so difficult. And of course some coaches were upset about that. So I do have sympathy,

but I think that you do an incredible job explaining the rules and that it brings a lot to broadcast when you have a chance to, you know, have something like that. So I want you to continue to have a job with controversies, but I don't think that's ever going to change, Dean. No, it's never going to change. We're always going to have something to talk about. And that keeps this rules analyst position alive. But you make a great point. And that's one thing where the people that actually go out and do it and there's young people around the country that go out and officiate and we get we get the benefit of of watching the play in slow motion from five or six different angles they have to make that call

one time from their angle at full speed and i think sometimes we there's a disconnect in uh you know between those two things yeah and anybody who wants to see how different it is now and how much better it is now, go back. I like to watch old games on YouTube. Go back and see some of the calls that used to happen in games from 1993 or something. So it's always improving, but it takes time. So, Dean, this was very cool.

I appreciate all the explanations, and I feel like I understand the world better now that you have been here. That's a cool job you have, that people always understand things better after you're done talking. Yeah. But then,

you know, a couple of days later, you'll forget like everybody else. We'll have to do a refresher. Yeah, that's, that's very right. Dean.

Thanks. Thanks for taking the time for coming on, man. Appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Dean Blandino, Fox sports rules analyst. And yep,

we need them.