Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Brad Spielberger breaks down Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter's futures

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

The Minnesota Vikings have a ton of questions after June 1, from whether Dalvin Cook will be cut to what Justin Jefferson's extension will look like to whether the Vikings will extend Kirk Cousins to whether Danielle Hunter will sign an extension or be traded and Pro Football Focus's Brad Spielberger breaks down all of those situations and attempts to project what's coming next Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Oakley. Express yourself. Build a look that's made for you. When you wear Oakley, there really is more than meets the eye. Try it for yourself. Oakley is not only the best looking, but the best quality. So head on over to oakley.com for more information today. so hello welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, which is presented by Oakley. Express your style and build a look that's made for you. Matthew Collar with you again and salary cap analyst for Pro Football Focus, Brad Spielberger. One of our favorite people on the show is, I mean, we're not just excited to have you, Brad, but we need you. We need you for this situation now uh with june 1st upon us

what is up man how are you i'm doing great june 1st upon us so maybe some more little movement going on and of course as as with every offseason recently the minnesota vikings at the the center of a couple interesting contract situations always always so all right dealer's choice uh dalvin cook kirk cousins justin jefferson daniel hunter where do you want to start let's start with delvin cook because that one i think is relevant to that deadline of tomorrow okay perfect uh it seems to me like there's a very high percentage chance that the vikings after june 1st cut delvin cook why do you think it was that they were not able to, at least as of this moment that you and I are talking,

not able to find a trade partner for him? And is this the best outcome? Or should they consider just bringing him back? Like your take on the Delvin Cook situation. Yeah, I think the probably biggest impediment to getting a deal done is just like we saw in arizona with deandre hopkins where odds are if he was granted the right to talk with clubs or his agent talked to clubs i'm guessing they may have given some some teams the ability to do that

you know it's now come out that the chiefs and bills were allowed to talk to deandre hopkins obviously he didn't have an agent at that time so a little bit different but nevertheless i'm guessing dalvin cook thinks he still should be paid what he's owed next year, his $10.5 million salary, even though we see Aaron Jones take a pay cut in Green Bay, Joe Mixon probably having similar conversations. You see Zekiel Elliott get cut. I think these guys are better than Zekiel Elliott at this time in their career, but nevertheless. So that, I think, is why a trade has been so difficult, is that no team is going to give up significant draft capital of any kind. Even if it was a day three pick with not much value, they probably just don't want to inherit that deal and give leverage to the player.

One more running back. You see Austin Eckler gets basically nothing, $1.75 million in incentives where he has to beat production from last year when he had 1,700 all-purpose yards and like 20 touchdowns. So the answer is it's a tough market for the position, and Dalvin clearly does not want to agree to any sort of pay cut on his current deal. So do you think that there is a chance that they get to the final phone call and it's like hey delvin we're gonna do this last chance to take a pay cut that if his agent is looking around what are the chances that anyone's going to put more cash in his pocket than the minnesota vikings even on a reworked deal i mean we saw harrison smith take a reworked deal to take a pay cut and Harrison Smith in my mind is much more valuable and would have much more interest if he was released uh Adam Thielen got a decent contract

somewhere else but these guys are uh high value players I think that you know competing teams would want I don't know that that's really the case with Delvin Cook like go down the list of running backs on teams find a team that you're like, oh, well, they want to win. And boy, do they ever need a running back? Like there's just so many of them out there. That's the reason we talk about not paying them. And it has come into my mind that it's altogether possible what happened to Riley Reif a couple years ago ends up maybe happening to Delvin Cook, where Riley Reif was ready to get cut

after they traded for Yannick Ngakwe. And then his agent called around and everybody said, nah, you know, nobody's got any money for Riley Reif at this moment. And he ends up staying with the team on a pay cut, not a happy Riley Reif at that point for taking that pay cut. That's for sure. And it probably wouldn't be a happy Delvin Cook, but if he's just looking to maximize his cash, there still is a possibility that that is here. Or do you have a different opinion based around the league? No, I think you're probably right. So look at the perspective of Harrison Smith,

even though different position, different age, all those things. But he chopped off about $6.5 million from his salary owed this past year, or this upcoming year, excuse me, down to $8 million for about $14 a half million dollars from his salary owed this past year or this upcoming year excuse me down to eight million dollars for about 14 and a half so let's say even if you let's say less than that let's just say you chop five million dollars off dalvin cook's salary is someone else going to offer him more than five and a half million dollars in cash next year i'm not so sure right i look again like he was productive at times last year he is is a three-down back, yada, yada, yada. He is a fine player. I'm not saying he's completely, completely washed up at this point.

But in this market, we've seen the last couple off-seasons as well. Again, he's probably better than the version of Leonard Fournette that came available in 2021, but he gets $3.25 million on a one-year deal. That's the thing. Maybe the best-case scenario is he probably gets the same amount elsewhere that he would get here and here you know you're a focal point of the offense you've been here forever you know as you and i know outside of football you're going to have your initiatives and community things going on the team does love him um you know off the field just as much as on the field and wants to build, you know, programs around him and make him a face of the franchise in many ways.

So, you know, I don't think he would do much better if at all, you know, if better at all. Yeah. And as it pertains to off the field, his issue from 2021 has not seemed to be a concern of theirs. I think that maybe fans, people who like Delvin Cook should not love what was reported in that lawsuit. But the team, I mean, Mike Zimmer came out immediately with a statement backing Delvin Cook. They have never shown any type of, I don't know, interest in digging further into that. Maybe they have, or at least the way that they've acted publicly. And there has been nothing

from the NFL to even slightly insinuate that he's going to get suspended. That could change, though, as court dates happen and as things come out, it seems like there's a dragged out process there.

But that is possible if they keep him, that something like that could happen, that this could be more of a public thing than it has been. So I'm not saying the Vikings dragged out process there, but that is possible if they keep him that something like that could happen, that this could be more of a public thing than it has been. So I'm not saying the Vikings don't care about this. I'm just saying that they've shown no public indication that they're concerned that he'll be suspended or anything else like that. Here's my issue with keeping him if they do, because there is, like you said, from his his side a possible incentive to stay um the the

downside is that they have drafted alexander madison the third round kenny wong in the fourth round ty chandler in the fifth round and duane mcbride in the seventh round that is four draft picks dedicated to the running back position to players who do not play although you know duane mcbride's this year but three of them to players who do not play because although Dwayne McBride's this year, but three of them to players who do not play. Because Delvin Cook, if he's on the team, he is playing 250 snaps, 75% of the snaps, unless he's injured, he's getting every snap per game, unless he's injured. And I think that there is a lot of value for the Vikings, a team that has a lot of positions that are in transition with younger players that they're looking to get experience and find out who can play to actually make use

of these draft picks that they spent. I mean, last year, Ty Chandler is standing out in preseason. Madison comes back on a very reasonable deal, but he's shown anytime that he's been a starter that he can play through the years. And Wong Wu is a 4-3 guy Dwayne McBride they just drafted but is a very exciting prospect even even as a seventh round running back I just I think that there is value in seeing what those guys can do yeah no it's interesting uh you know the McVeigh tree I guess not even the entire tree but McVeigh in particular um and so far with Kevin O'Connell they actually do like to not really have a committee I think we're used to kind of seeing a Kyle Shanahan type approach

they don't they want to have one guy I mean the big thing probably traces back to a Todd Gurley where it's just there's no tell when he's on the field what you're going to do and and Dalvin probably is you know better at all things than any of them are you know across the board maybe you could argue you know Madison makes more guys miss between the tackles or yada yada yada but but if you add in every skill set i mean dalvin you know comes to the cream of the crop so yeah but but like you said i mean you're using draft pick year after year for guys that maybe at most are contributing on teams and that's about it it's not really a great use of your resources why you know if you're going to keep dalvin just okay then go sign one of the many

free agents available for a minimum contract and use those draft picks elsewhere to maybe hit on a player with a four-year, you know, control that adds more value and actually gets on the field on offense or defense. So yeah, no, it makes total sense. Obviously there's the quote today from Kevin O'Connell about how it's great to see Madison getting more first team reps and be a truth three down player. You know, it seems like they're trending towards, you know, a probable breakup. But I'm sure they still would love, frankly, to get a pay cut done if they could. Just doesn't seem like as much traction on that at all.

Yeah, I mean, I think that they have several guys with potential to be something. I mean, Ty Chandler might have an opportunity to be that three down back eventually as he works his way into it. We've seen Madison do it in spurts before. I dug up the stat that he's had 10 games of 10 or more carries and only two of them did he average less than four yards per carry. So he's been successful when he's had those opportunities. He does not have the breakaway speed of Delvin Cook. But I also think that when you have the analytics GM, no one should understand better than Kweisi Adafo-Mensa, the age curve. And this is like the red alert. This is where it falls apart for so many running backs in the past. And there were hints for last year.

So we'll have resolution on this, I think, fairly soon. But there is two sides to the Delvin Cook argument. How about we talk a little Justin Jefferson? Because this is when I DM you and said, I need you. This is why this is. I mean, this this thing can be a little bit complicated, I think, even though there's the simple fact that the Vikings want to make him the highest paid receiver and they they all agree on that. Nobody has any

disagreement about how much Justin Jefferson is worth, which is interesting because usually that doesn't happen. Usually it's, well, we value you this way and maybe the market and everything else. No, everyone agrees the guy is the best receiver in the NFL. Everyone agrees that he should be paid that way, but structure will matter matter here I've floated it out there a few times the idea of a shorter term deal that's a couple years maybe three seasons as opposed to like five or six or whatever I'm sure the Vikings would do 10 if Justin Jefferson would allow but what is your expectation about what a contract between the Vikings and Jefferson would look like that is going to be the first battle is the term the Vikings and Jefferson would look like?

That is going to be the first battle is the term the Vikings love to give the five-year extension as every team should. We've probably talked about it. A longer term deal is better for teams. The player has less path to get back to the market, whether that's free agency or just saying, hey, I want an early extension. I mean, look at a guy like Daniel Hunter. Yes, injuries, other things, a different component of it. But, you know, him and Stefan Diggs signed these five year deals in 2018. And both were just kind of hamstrung by their inability to argue. I have four years left. I am better than my deal, but it's hard to make that argument. So that's me. The first battle we saw last offseason with. I mean, everyone really DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, all those guys. Debo Samuel signing that three-year extension.

So I'm sure maybe they settle at four, right? They kind of have a compromise at four. Of course, for Jefferson, those guys signing the three-year extension did not have the fifth-year option. So really a four-year total term. If he signs a three-year extension, it's still a five years remaining on his contract. So four would be six and would be a long, long deal that keeps him off the market for a very long time. So if they do get to four, yeah, regardless, it's probably going to reset the market, which then is a separate conversation of,

unfortunately, the top guys at wide receiver, it's kind of phony what their contracts actually are versus what they're reported as. Tyree Kill Kill in my opinion signed a three-year 75 million dollar contract um and Devonta Adams signed a three-year deal for about 67 and a half million dollars um you know AJ Brown probably closer but more like three years 70 I want to say yeah three years 69 I think it is and that's where those guys are right that the McLaurins the Metcalfs in that 23 24 million per year range so you know if jefferson wants the 30 plus let's say he wants to beat tyree kills 30 million per year average the thing is all right are you going to actually beat that or are you going to beat it you know because the fourth of the last year is some massive salary that kind of inflates the overall

value but yeah look there's no way they would sign a contract where he does not become, whether real or phony, the highest paid player in his position, but by probably a decent margin, frankly. What is too much to pay for the greatest receiver on earth? Honestly, in today's market right now, like it's a pretty high number. Like I would give, like I just said, in my opinion, if Hill is at 375,

I would give Justin Jefferson 330. Like I would. I don't think it's, it's unreasonable. I'm way younger than these guys. Doesn't to me have a game that I think is going to age particularly poorly at all, even though we're not really in that conversation yet, but like, I wouldn't be, you know, he's not some physical demanding, you know, injured. That's not who he is. Right. just a a very skilled player um yeah i would go pretty darn high especially because you are also you know that there is a time in the near future where you want to bring in a young quarterback and groom him um and you know we always talk about all this the fond days going to buffalo and and this team acquiring this guy and helping out

their quarterback you just have the guy in place you that works as well. So when it comes to Jefferson, part of this conversation is that Kweisi Adalfo-Mensa mentioned at the combine, I asked him specifically, do you loop Justin into conversations about your big picture? And he said, normally you wouldn't do that for anyone except for a quarterback, but in Justin's case, we do. And so I think part of this is and I think that's smart like not being like we're the player you take the deal we give you because that maybe was the previous approach and got Stefan Diggs to Buffalo but uh you know I

think that is a double-edged sword though because if you loop him into the conversation and he doesn't like what he hears then what do do you do? Because you can't let him go Aaron Rodgers and take over your franchise and start, you know, bringing back Randall Cobb and stuff like that. You can't let him dictate who his quarterback is, but can't you though, in a way? But if he says, I want no one else other than Kirk Cousins throwing me the football, that doesn't seem likely, but what do you do? Do you like, okay, sir, I guess we'll extend Kirk for you now. Or if he says he doesn't want to work with a rookie or he does, or what like that, I think there is some trickiness to that. And in this case, he does not

have to sign today, even though it's majorly beneficial for him to sign today. He doesn't have to. And this is a wrinkle that I don't know exists in a ton of these contract situations. Yeah. So it is pretty fascinating. I think if I was him, the most realistic thing or pragmatic thing I would say is just don't give me a dead year, right? Do not give me the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023, whereas I can't battle a Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. And every clip I've seen so far is them just missing by five yards. So look, and we'll get into Kirk, but essentially have a succession plan in place.

You can point to Green Bay, even if, you know, we don't know if Jordan Love is going to be good or not. But hey, they never had a season where they went into the season with confusion or questions of who's going to be the guy. Do we know who he is, what he's about, all that. They never let that happen. And I would say, you know, please do the same thing here for me you know crazy obviously and you get to point in san francisco you know hey look you know you had jimmy you still drafted trey like again didn't really work out from a result standpoint but the process was we are never going to not

have an idea of who is next up so the thing i would say is more about it not getting done this offseason. I actually would think, and now we'll talk about them in a bit, but if you're trying to pay Kirk and Daniil Hunter and you have Jefferson who, yes, you want to get done ASAP, but the amount of players, non-quarterbacks, that get extended three years into a rookie deal that are first-rounders is very rare. I mean, look at this offseason.

We're still waiting on Nick Bosa, Brian Burns, and all these guys quinn and williams etc there's been some movement but these are all guys that were going into the fifth year option year um look rob brzezinski and that crew over there they like to get deals done early it benefited with daniel hunter and stefan diggs and a lot of players they did a very very good very good job, Eric Kendrick, et cetera. But maybe here they say, you know what? His price is not going to get, or like, we already know we're going to give him an astronomical contract. Like it can't get that much worse. And maybe that's the route they go. Folks, our new sponsor Oakley, maybe you've noticed it has taken our show to the next level. Oakley express yourself and build a look that is made for you and guess

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that Oakley is not only the best looking, but the best quality out there. Go to oakley.com for more information today so i mean that's my thing is that if justin jefferson doesn't really love what he hears and he says you know what i want to hold off and the team can say okay i mean it's beneficial to the vikings to sign them to an extension because then they can design it however they want with the salary cap and with their future as versus a fifth year option and a franchise tag and plus those things always get ugly and Lamar Jackson's got his I don't know business friend who makes treadmills or something like calling NFL teams I mean all all's well that ends well there but they get ugly these things and I think that they don't want that they don't

want ugliness with Justin Jefferson. It's just unique in that Jefferson knows he's going to continue to be the best receiver on earth. He knows that he's going to continue to be the most valuable player they're going to have that's a non-quarterback, maybe in the entire league, and that he's going to be, whenever he signs this, the highest paid receiver.

So if he wants to hold their feet to the fire a little bit with their future, he can, because I think this guy has zero interest in playing for a bad team and zero interest in playing with bad quarterback situation and so forth. He wants to win. But it comes down to maybe does he believe that they can win soon with Kirk Cousins or not? And then I don't know, do you let him dictate what you're doing a quarterback based on you know his contract situation so that's where it all gets kind of muddy but by tomorrow he could sign and we never talk about this again until a couple years down the road I just think that that element of it is something that you don't hear very often outside of a quarterback with a

player caring about the direction I also think that if you make him the highest paid receiver, how is it that you keep an expensive quarterback? It just doesn't seem possible that you could keep Kirk Cousins on an expensive extension and have Justin Jefferson on his deal. But maybe I'm wrong based on the structure. So that's where, you know, I think you could, if you go one more off, let's say you extend Kirk to another one-year deal for 2024. Jefferson, like you said, already has a $20 million fifth-year option essentially for next offseason. But if you then reworked his deal or extended him, you could then lower the cap from a cap standpoint, have it where his number is low in 2024. Kirk's is still fairly high because it's kind of unavoidable. And then,

you know, I guess it would be small again in 2025 for all that dead cap to hit, which would also be a, a sizable cap hit at this point for Kirk cousins. And then it balloons into some gigantic number, which you balance out, then balance out with the rookie contract quarterback. So,

yeah, I mean, it's smarter than to include him. I think more teams should do it. Like you said, it is kind of a tough line to balance of, we want to hear your input. We're going to take it into consideration.

But you can't be like, hey, I want to draft this quarterback, and we take another one. You say, well, I told you, yeah, we're going to hear you out. We're going to take it into consideration. But you're not going to become our director of college scouting. So I think it's good. I think it's good to see. And I think it will.

Look, it also builds trust and credibility in that if things do get a little bumpy, which hopefully's good to see um and i think it will look it also builds trust and credibility and that if things do get a little bumpy which hopefully they don't i don't think they will um but they do it's hey we're not like you said i do think in the past there probably was some more kind of just look you're the player i'm the you know we're the front office state of our business we'll stay out of yours type of thing um and i think it's smart that they're look they're not they're not that anymore i really don't. And I also think that the ownership of the Minnesota Vikings is always going to push to make sure these things get done. So if there needs to be extra dollars added at the last minute that I think all players and all agents know at this point that the Wilfs want to keep

their stars as long as they possibly can. And they're going to move heaven and earth to do that. Now, all of this does tie into Kirk Cousins and his future. And again, we don't know how Justin Jefferson really feels deep down about whether they can win with Kirk Cousins. I don't think that there's any rift or issues between the two, but I also think that it's been three years between him and the best receiver in the world and they have zero playoff wins in those three years and that has to eat at Justin Jefferson the fact that they don't and he's also aware enough to know what a giant quarterback contract does uh to a roster and how difficult it's been to build the rest of the roster I'm sure he watched the defense last

year from the sideline give up a lot of yards and a lot of points. But is it possible that the Vikings could extend Kirk Cousins? Because I think we saw the last regime run into this and this regime already run into this last year where they look around and go, well, who's going to be better? And I think that personally, I think that's a fallacy. I think it's like, OK, well, could you do better than one playoff win since 2018 with somebody? Yes, there's a lot of people who could have gotten one playoff win since 2018. But I think that with this ownership, everyone is always concerned about having a horrible season because that's like the one thing that they don't ever want.

And with Kirk Cousins, you'll never have a horrible season. So it seems still in the realm of possibility that they could extend him because Kirk always wins. But I don't think they should. I think that they should stay on the path that they've created with a youngish roster. Actually, a lot of young parts, especially on defense, offensive line. Receivers are now very young between Jefferson and Addison stay on this path draft a quarterback next year but they also

might look at next year's class and be concerned that there's not going to be that guy there for them so how do you weigh the possibility of them still extending Kirk Cousins yeah so I do think they came into this offseason thinking if we can find a younger solution whether it's via the draft we do now know they did talk with the San Francisco 49ers about Trey Lance at one point obviously the Minnesota local I think I've tweeted enough times thinking that you know connecting those dots I honestly would not be surprised if we get a healthy Brock Purdy and they think Darnold's a good enough backup in San Fran that is way closer to week one that maybe they do re-engage in those conversations and I think Will Levis getting drafted by Tennessee

takes a massive suitor for Trey Lance's services out of the equation which could help Minnesota as well so but I do think because you know all you do is add Jaron Hall in the late fifth round a one-year extension for kirk cousins probably does make some sense where you again you're still planning to draft a quarterback in the first round next year if you can um you know you'll have your what full suite of picks again as opposed to obviously this year did not have the t.j hawkinson selections um at your disposal i found every rumor or whatever they were going to trade up the most absurd and dumb thing I've ever seen in my entire life, frankly. But come on, let's have some dignity

here, people. But anyway, so yeah, they're going to go from 23 to three. Okay, sure. That's never happened in the history of the sport. Why not? And with no draft capital, sure. Anyway, so I think it does make sense. I think you do the same kind of thing one year, $35 million type thing. It just buys you more time. It basically is a franchise tag, as we've discussed. I think it's very possible at this point because they didn't get the solution they were looking for. But again, you're constantly turning over stones, trying to find the succession plan. And he kind of knows that and I think has made peace with it as well. Okay.

So from Kirk's perspective, though, you ever been at a party or something and you're talking to someone and they kind of are like looking around you, looking by you. Is there somebody more important than Brad Spielberg or I could be talking to? This happens in circles when we are at NFL events with lots of people there. You know the feeling and so uh that's how the vikings feel with looking past kirk cousins like yeah i'm okay with talking to you right now but i'm really looking at that draft class looking at trey lance looking at everything else if you're kirk at some point you have to be like i won 13 games for you last year what more do you want from me? And I know that Quacey can come back with a lot of numbers that say it was not the greatest quarterback season. Wasn't even

Kirk's best season or even close statistically speaking, but he did the thing that he hasn't done in the regular season, which is get into the, the, you know, division title range and win a lot of games and had a lot of comebacks and played overall well with Kevin O'Connell, especially since they had no effective running game and they leaned on him a lot. So if I'm on his side and I'm his agent, who we both know is spectacular in his job, I've got to say my guy has never been hurt. And look at Derek Carr gets a pretty good contract when he ends up hitting the market.

It wasn't insane, but it was still really good. And oh, by the way, he's actually wanted in New Orleans. They want him there. And if you're Kirk, do you just want to go where you're wanted? If they come to you and say one year extension, you got to be like, really, guys? What do I got to do to be the Viking for life? I don't play nickel corner. I can only be the quarterback.

I could see his side feeling that way. I was reporting. I forget who from, and it may have been more speculative than a peer report, basically saying that before the restructure happened earlier this off season, they were trying to get a multi-year extension done. And you were first on it.

We talked about it. You said you probably messaged me in like January. Like why would Kirk not, why would he take another one year? Why would you say, no, give me a three-year deal, you know, and I can help you. And the reporting basically was like, they were almost surprised that Minnesota didn't jump at the opportunity because they were kind of offering a bit of a discount from a total value standpoint, at least in their eyes. But it just wanted the more year-to-year control or security than a single-year extension. So that makes total sense.

It's totally fair. I think it is fair, frankly, for Kirk to want to have more stability than always having to think, you know, what am I going to do the year after, et cetera, et cetera. At the same time, I mean, look, top 10 tackle duo now, you know, if Jordan Addison pans out, could have one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. A good offensive head coach that seems to get along with him and like him that he has familiarity with going back a very long time ago. Like you said, worked well in their first year together, could perhaps get even better as things are now more and more catered to their, you know, kind of what they want to do. So there are competing forces.

And I think Minnesota probably thinks, hey, we've offered enough for a great organization you know being number one in the nflpa thing is is not you know people should not scoff at that it means a lot and kirk is a massive beneficiary of those things so yeah no you're right you are right and you nailed it and i think you were smart to kind of be first on that but you know derrick carr for example his deal could just be two years, $60 million. And so Kirk could realistically do better than that, you know, even with a one-year extension, make more in cash and have more, you know, kind of guarantees and security. So I think that's kind of how they would push back and say, yeah, look, we're still giving you – you're not going into a contract year again. You get to not look over your shoulder.

You know it's your job this year. Even if things go badly, we're not going to throw in Jaron hall just to see what we have you know whatever um but no everything you raise is also very fair but i i think that it would be a mistake to sign him to any sort of extension and i know that they want to keep being competitive but at some point the-Aid has to come off. And last year's roster is better than this year's roster. And even though they have a good offense, they certainly have a good offense, we've never seen him take them beyond being that fringe top 10 type of offense. And sometimes the numbers are a little bit of a paper tiger because it's playing in shootouts and coming back and things like that.

I mean, how many points did they score against Indianapolis? So you get credit for those, but you were down 35 points or whatever. So like, yes, your offense did finish eighth in scoring, but you know, there was a couple of big games in there that were unnecessary stat padding. But anyway, that's not the point. It's just that you've seen the ceiling. If you're the Vikings, you've seen what this thing is. And the previous regime is not here anymore because they kept thinking they could patch all the holes around it. And they just kept extending and extending all the way into their graves.

It's like, do you guys want to do the same thing, especially with a quarterback who is getting older? And like Jay Cutler at this same age was a dolphin I mean Joe Flacco was like playing for the Broncos or something at the same age these middling top 10-ish quarterbacks do not last to 42 and so I guess every year to me they're playing with fire if they try to extend him and they also kind of just continue to kick that can down the road so now we're getting to the point where you've passed on numerous quarterbacks that you or if they try to extend him. And they also kind of just continue to kick that can down the road. So now we're getting to the point

where you've passed on numerous quarterbacks that you could have drafted. I'm not saying they should have taken Will Levis, but it's like, well, you could have taken Mac Jones. You didn't take him. You could have taken Kenny Pickett. You could have taken Will Levis. And all those guys might be horrible

and they might be right. But if one of those guys is good, then it doesn't look good for you because every year it's like, well, it's not the perfect quarterbacks, just not there for us. And also it's not there because you keep winning games with Kirk to put you in the middle of the draft and this vicious cycle. We just live in a simulation that never ends. So I, it just, it feels like if they extend them again, it's just going to be the same repeat of 2020, 2021, all over again. And what ends up happening when you're in the middle?

You get a lot of clashing. Kweisi and Kevin O'Connell are best friends now, just like Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman were when they were rebuilding in 2014, 15, 16. But you have a couple of failed seasons, and then the pressure is on. I feel like next year is the perfect time to rip off the bandaid, draft a quarterback and go forward with a franchise that has a lot of promising young players. Yeah. So I agree.

The only thing is, you know, you can't go back to the Justin Jefferson conversation. Let's say they're picking in the middle, you know, it won't be 23. Let's say it's 16, whatever. You know, right outside the playoff picture, whatever you want to say. And you're saying, okay, this is a good quarterback class. We do like some guys. Maybe we trade up or we take the Mac Jones of this year,

the guy that kind of slips a little bit, whatever. And we have no one on the roster. We have Jaron Hall on the roster and we, you know, bring in whatever, you know, another veteran backup. things don't go your way. Someone trades ahead of you or you put yourself in a position where then everyone knows as well, right? Like you're going to get killed in the trade or you're not going to pull the trade off or whatever.

And again, it's expensive security. It's expensive insurance to give $35 million to Kirk Cousins. That is a pricey plan. But yeah, I mean, that's kind of the issue and what they're avoiding. But no, again, I hear you. It's more just these kind of, again, these competing forces. And it's funny, in a way, like the NFC being so bad, it hurts them as much as it helps them.

Like, again, I think they are going to win eight games, nine games, just because the NFC stinks. But, you know, it would be nice if they were in the AFC, you know, East. And this roster would be by far the worst roster on paper in that division. But instead, it's probably the clear number two roster. And the Detroit Lions can't stop gambling and losing players for significant chunks of the season anyway. Not betting on football, though. not betting on football though not betting on

football i i wouldn't have guessed that if i was jameson yeah right if i was jameson williams i would not have known i i would not have known that you couldn't do it in the facility you have to drive over across the parking lot and then get on your app and then bet on Bama or whatever he was doing. I think all of that is like insurance against what? Security against what? Not winning? I mean, because that's where they've been, is not being a legitimate contender. And that the weak NFC is another fallacy. It's like, yes, that's true that most teams are weak in the NFC,

but the top teams are just as good as the top teams in the AFC. And that was proven because in the Super Bowl, the NFC team lost by three or whatever like that. And look at look at the top 10 scoring teams. I think six out of the 10 were from the NFC. So or at least five out of the 10. So the top teams are good. It's just that the bad teams are really bad. And what do they matter um to

your equation so yeah i mean i guess we've i feel like this is the same cycle we've gone through many many times with a kirk extension talk but i am intrigued by the idea that after june 1st and maybe you can explain why this is and how this works after june 1st and it feels so weird to be having these discussions in the middle of summer about major things could change for your team. But with Kirk Cousins, once that calendar flips over, he can be traded. And probably San Francisco is the only potential team that he would accept the trade to with his no trade clause. But that is not entirely off the table either. It's like everything is potentially on the table. But why is that? I say that, but that is not entirely off the table either. It's like everything

is potentially on the table, but what, but why is that? Like I say that, but why is that? Yeah. So, you know, I don't know if it's able to just, cause I don't know who would start at quarterback in Minnesota at that point. I guess you're saying you swapped for Trey Lance. I guess it'd be the hypothetical there. Yeah. So, so the way June 1st works is just essentially that the salary cap ramifications of a cut or a trade are treated differently once that date passes, where before June 1st, any dead cap all accelerates up to the current year. After June 1st, it gets split over the current year and the following year. So if you did trade Kirk C cousins you know tomorrow or after tomorrow i guess um you know you would clear 10 million dollars in cap space uh for this upcoming season the total dead cap would

be the same but it would be split over this year and next year as opposed to all hitting this year you know i think the bigger thing is is with the dalvin cook you know whether it's a trade or a cut i you know i know there's a report today from jeremy fowler i think he still thinks a trade is possible maybe it is i think it's a a little bit maybe optimistic that they can find a trade partner. But for him, it goes from saving $9 million or $11 million versus about $6 million, I think it is, with a cut before that. So it's a different situation with the cap treatment of the transactions. I say off the table but i didn't say likely i didn't say that was i just mean that when you hear that the gm is poking

around trey lance at the combine to see if there's any interest there and san francisco couldn't do it without knowing what brock purdy's arm surgery looked like. And if there's one quarterback, like we've been doing the whole thing where you connect the yarn and newspaper clippings together with Trey Lance and Kirk Cousins to San Francisco forever. But the point is that if it was ever going to happen, it's going to happen after June 1st because that's the only way the Vikings can really do it with their cap.

No, I don't expect it, and I think it's a very low percentage. Last guy we need to talk about is Daniil Hunter and what's going to happen there. I would expect that he wants to be one of the, if not the highest paid edge rusher, which is insanely high with the money that comes along with it. He also probably has some bitterness about years past and the way that the cat or the contract has gone for him some out of his control you know others like the injury part out of his control and if you were the vikings you needed to see him come back and you know play with through the neck injury and everything else but uh this is a really hard one because finally he's of adult age. We've been talking about forever how young he is. He's a young-ish, but not young anymore.

He's a veteran NFL player. And if you're signing Jefferson, Derrissaw's on the way. Maybe you're extending Kirk. I don't know. This is one you can't just like push some boop-boop crazy cap buttons and have it all work out for you. This is going to be expensive as hell. What do they do here? Because he This is going to be expensive as hell.

What do they do here? Because he actually has value in a trade as well. Yeah, no, they have to do something because, and look, we were off, or I was off about maybe him threatening a holdout or doing something like that in appearances in the past, I think mainly because the injuries, he probably recognized he had less leverage. But he has a $5.5 million salary. He is not playing. I'll say it again.

Maybe I'm wrong. There is no chance he is showing up for that salary. Yes, he was willing to rework his contract. He made $20 million in cash last year, a very reasonable amount of money to make with where he's at. He's not playing on this current salary. When I look at him, like you said no he's still young for for how long he's been in the nfl but he's not some oh he's only 26 years old like he's he's gonna be 29 this year he's a normal age third contract type guy um i look at a couple numbers so first what i just

mentioned the fact he made 20 million dollars in cash last year i think is not insignificant i then look at this would be a complete floor but you, but Von Miller last offseason at 33 years old. I know the reporting says six years, $20 million a year. He signed a three-year deal for about $52.5 million per year, so $17.5 million per year there. And the last data point I look at is Khalil Mack. The Los Angeles Chargers traded a second-round pick for the right to pay him about 40 and a half million dollars over two years i doubt he plays him in 2024 um so hunter like that's kind of where i start is like all right 20 the floor an absolute floor you didn't probably point to a bradley chubb who signed out

you know a five-year deal for 22 million dollars a year again the earlier cash flows are a little bit lower um than that actual number but, like he is still a valuable player. He probably still has a couple of good years left. If he can't stay healthy, he obviously did this past season. And I think it's kind of in that low 20 range. I don't think they would entertain. And I don't think he would push for, unless he wants to leave Minnesota to be like near top of market,

like, you know, 30 in the 30 range. Here's what gets interesting. So we're talking about Jefferson. If I'm Minnesota, I'm pushing very hard because I think Nick Bosa. So the current highest paid player at the position is $28 million a year with TJ watt. I think Nick Bosa is going to sign for not, not, not 30,

like 32 and a half, $33 million a year on an extension. I think Brian Burns could try to get the 30 in Carolina. Montez Sweat, Rashawn Gary at 20 ACL. But in your division, very good player that before the injury I think was probably signing for at least above 25. If not, 27, 28. So if I'm Minnesota, I'm trying to get this done pretty quickly. But I think it's low 20s. 22, 23 in that range. Like I'm trying to get this done pretty quickly, but I think it's low twenties, 22, you know,

23 in that range. And I would, I would probably try to go three year extension, four years in total. It's through his age, you know, 32 year, whatever,

but like we've seen, I mean, it looks at area Smith and Cleo Mac, et cetera, like Von Miller, you know, these guys have a shelf life beyond that. And maybe there's another deal to be had.

But yeah, anyway, three years, you know, 66 mil in that, in that wheelhouse, I think would be a fair deal to be had. But yeah, anyway, three years, you know, 66 mil in that, in that wheelhouse, I think would be a fair deal for both parties. If not, I do think he'll demand a trade because again, I know I was wrong, but he's not, unless you give him a pay raise, I guess he's not paying for five and a half million dollars. No, and he shouldn't because that's absurd

based on his production. But yeah, this is a, this is a very tricky one because I think on his side, there's someone out there who's desperate for an edge rusher that is competing for a championship that will sign him to a bigger deal than the Vikings. And he's got to know that. And I think the Vikings are in more of a position with these very expensive players coming up where they have to be reasonable. There's also the the we can point to the Julius Peppers or Vaughn Miller or a number of players who get into their 30s and sack the

hell out of everybody but I don't know that that's always the case right and Hunter is an incredible athletic specimen but does have the injuries here and if you take away 10% of that athleticism, or you're only getting 10 to 12 games a year out of him in the future, because these injuries pile up, there is a big risk to be taken there for, you know, buying completely into him on a huge deal. And there's also the part of like, you're rebuilding this defense from scratch and you have this one great player and no other ones that you're really solid about, it's almost like this is a multi-year process with him. You might miss, you might risk sort of missing the window for when this defense eventually becomes good. Like he's fading as the other guys are developing. And I think it takes years to build a really

great defense. So to me, that's very tricky uh last question though for you brad um the bigger picture so bill barnwell did an interesting piece where he rated off seasons and he rated it by getting closer in the short or long term to the super bowl do we feel like with this off season what the vik Vikings did got them closer or farther away from the Super Bowl short or long term I would vote long term so look we are talking about Kirk and maybe him staying but I think finally biting the bullet on an Adam Thielen I think saying Harrison Smith either take a significant pay cut or we're going to cut you as well um you know I think you know not resigning Devin Tomlinson a good, but a guy that has not increased significantly your short-term chances to make a Super Bowl. Patrick Peterson probably would have come back if they gave him a decent offer.

I think long-term, they did improve their chances. The Kirk situation is going to be a big pendulum swinger. But I commend them for doing enough to not try to truly run it back, quote unquote, and fall for the fallacy of their record last season. It took a long time, and maybe Delvin Cook is the last piece of that. Daniil Hunter is sort of in both buckets of a rebuild player that you could build your defense around, or a player that if you move on from, you get draft capital

and you're rebuilding that way. But they trickled in the moves with Zedarius Smith and then maybe we'll see with Delvin Cook but I think if you were to write down the Vikings roster and then put it up next to last year you'd go oh wow I didn't realize how many players actually left and how much how much age walked out the door and I think that that was very smart to do, but they're in a position with a great offense still intact that they are going to be competitive. So this is kind of the ultimate competitive rebuild.

And what determines whether this works or not, I think is what happens at quarterback going forward, because if they find the right quarterback at the right price in the draft, then you're headed to Super Bowl contention. And if you stay in this place, then you're, you know, headed to Super Bowl contention. And if you stay in this place, I think we know what this place is. So, but not, I make it sound much easier than it is as always. So at PFF Brad on Twitter, one of the best follows out there. Incredible insight as always, Brad. Great to get together again with you, man.

Thanks for this. Great to see you. Yeah. Great, great as always. And then hopefully the predictions are strong again, you know, in a more positive direction. Yeah, but thanks for having me. Well, we'll definitely have more reasons to get together. I'm guessing pretty soon. If Jefferson signs a contract, you're on the emergency pod. So we will talk again very soon. And thank you all for listening as always.