Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Brad Spielberger breaks down Jeff Gladney implications and Brian O'Neill, Harrison Smith extension options

Episode Date: August 3, 2021

Matthew Coller connects with PFF's cap expert Brad Spielberger to break down cap implications of Jeff Gladney being indicted. Plus they talked about why Brian O'Neill will very likely sign a contract extension with the Vikings despite the fact that it hasn't happened yet, what Harrison Smith's potential future looks like and Danielle Hunter's future options. Plus a note on how long Aaron Rodgers will be in Green Bay. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Pollard here, and we're going to take a little break from pro-vax Zimmer versus anti-vax players to discuss some things that have been left on the cutting room floor in our recent episodes with the focus on the madness and everything else that has been going on and specifically regarding some contract situations great to catch up with Brad Spielberger, the cap guru from pro football focus. What is up, Brad? Do you like cap guru? Do you got something else that you prefer? Cap experts. I'm good with guru. I appreciate it. Yeah. Glad to be back on. You know, it's football season. Full pads are on. So we're there.

Yeah, I know. And then even since we can't do anything normal during this camp, it was like, we were all ready for the full padded practice. Then Rick Spielman says, no, actually, with the rules, we can't do a full padded practice yet. So now that's going to be tomorrow. And it's just like can't even do anything normal here this year. But we have a lot to get into specifically. And as we record this, I don't know how it's going to go. But I think I know how it's going to go with Jeff Gladney's indictment. Now, Gladney has not been practicing with the Vikings. He has been in town as our friend Brian Murphy discovered he was in Egan, which makes me wonder if he's been participating in meetings possibly or I really don't know.

But every time we write about Jeff Gladney, the main sentiment from fans is you should get rid of this guy like the Vikings should cut him. Give me the options after Jeff Gladney is indicted that the Vikings have as it pertains to the salary cap, because I think once he gets indicted and is going to trial for this, then we're talking about the NFL potentially getting involved here and suspending him. So let's say we go down that road and the NFL suspends Jeff Gladney. What happens with the Viking salary cap? Yep. So right off top, as soon as he would get suspended by, you know, the commissioner, so even not to the team, but if the league suspends him because of their fact gathering process, and obviously they rely on local police departments and whatnot, they can immediately void his guarantees. It would be considered conduct detrimental

and just not casting a good light on the franchise. And so what voiding guarantees means at first is just his base salaries through his deal are guaranteed. They would become non-guaranteed. So you're not getting rid of the money. The money's still there, but he no longer has guarantee language on it. So obviously, as we know, if they then cut him, they wouldn't owe him any of that money. And then the next step would be if you wanted to actually go after his signing bonus money that you've already paid him via forfeiture. So, again, you know, pursuant to how this plays out to the league and everything

like that, they would then have the ability to basically say, we're going to take back the signing bonus proration for this season and the next two years, you know, the completion of his deal, you know, because you're not available to us, you, you know, acted in a way that made you, you know, reflect negatively on the organization, on the league. And when they do recoup that signing bonus money, you do get a salary cap credit. And you and I, I think, have discussed this in the past. I originally thought the cap credit would come at the end of the year in what is called the annual adjustment, where things like incentives and all sorts of things like that will get balanced out. With this, if he pays the money back, they would get a cap credit immediately

for that signing bonus money. It's apparently not the easiest thing to do to get that money back, which I guess is not super surprising. But the bigger thing probably would just be they no longer owe him those salaries. So they probably were planning to pay him X dollars the next three seasons. And now that money's gone. So it does clear up not a ton of room. You know, he's a rookie player, even a first round or a late first round pick. But it does clear up some room.

So even if they can't get the money back, like fighting tooth and nail for it, they're still going to get some cap space is the bottom line there. Yep. Okay. So I guess, I mean, people are interested in that. It feels weird to be saying it just like, I know that the, this, the accusations are heinous, but the cap, let's talk about that. But I appreciate you clearing all of that up because I've been confused about it. And I get a lot of questions about what happens if this happens. And,

and so I guess the bottom line would be if they want to cut Jeff Gladney because of what has happened here, they can do that. They can like, there are some situations with so much dead cap space and everything else that it wouldn't really work out very well for you, or it would be really tough. Like for example, if they decided they wanted to cut Kirk cousins because of his vaccination status, that would be extremely impossible due to their salary cap. That is not the case with Jeff Glatt. A hundred percent. I mean, I think that the easiest comparison would

be they did very different things, but Earl Thomas in Baltimore, when he was found, the team said, you know, his conduct was detrimental to the team. That's, you know, very specific language. And you're basically, yeah, you're allowed to avoid guarantees and also go after money. What usually happens and what is still the case with him in Baltimore is he then filed a grievance and is trying to argue that he still deserves some of that money. And so there's a whole legal process that plays out through the league, through an arbitrator. And I don't have to go to all the nitty gritty. But, yeah, you would gain some cap space because the player essentially uh essentially he breached his contract right he agreed when he signed the contract i will not do this if i do this you no longer owe me you

know you no longer have the obligation to pay me this money um and you know potentially you know the signing bonus even though the signing bonus cash wise all gets paid up front they still maintain you know how much is allocated each year and you can take back you know the portions that bonus, even though the signing bonus cash wise all gets paid up front, they still maintain, you know, how much is allocated each year. And you can take back, you know, the portions that are owed for the rest of the contract. So I want your opinion on this. And this kind of goes a little bit sideways of the cap, but something that is sort of frustrating about any issue like this, just maybe related to Kareem Hunt is if the vikings cut jeff gladney then let's say it plays out that he doesn't go to jail for what happened here he gets suspended

for a year someone else picks up jeff gladney and then he's the like oh well second chances guy and then if he plays well for that team then they've got like a steal because they didn't pay very much for him and this process seems to play out sort of over and over again and I am not at all saying the teams should pick up guys like this or that it's fine what Jeff Gladney or Kareem Hunt did it just seems to be the reality of the thing and I don't really know any way around that. So I almost wonder if the Vikings wait on this and sort of see how it plays out rather than just cutting your first round pick and letting someone else have him because he's not going to be banned from the league for life, assuming that he doesn't end up in prison. Yeah. I mean, that is the

unfortunate reality of the NFL. I mean, look look we're now having conversations about Deshaun Watson's trade value and everyone just seems to gloss over every other part of that deal and it's just talking about how many draft picks you know they're going to get whatever uh so yeah I mean look I mean DeAndre Baker is is on the Chiefs roster I think he did tear his ACL last year so maybe he's not anymore but you know gets gets cut same thing first round pick corner gets cut a year into the deal. All these things. Didn't hit a woman, but not the greatest allegations there either. And is immediately back on a roster.

And yes, if he did blossom into a good player, the Chiefs would get all this credit. You know, like you said, oh, they found this steal, this first round talent, blah, blah, blah. So, yeah, it is kind of a tough narrative. I think the Vikings, you know, in many ways, you know, they care about the morals and ethics of their building. I'm not going to just call it pure optics because I think the optics has the connotation of they just do it to look good. I think they actually genuinely care in the Minnesota Vikings building. Other teams, I think, care about the optics and don't actually care. Either way, though, it is tough. When you put it that way, it is tough.

Like, hey, you know, could we could we stand by our guy? And the argument being we should rehabilitate him. We should try to teach him what he did was very wrong. He should never do it again. He should change from this, learn from this, grow from this and take that angle. But, you know, it's tough at the end of the day, I think in that building, if he's found, you know, if he's indicted or, you know, ultimately found guilty of these charges, I think it's probably tough um to you know to you know to keep him you know around well you did a good job responding to that because it's a thing that there's no answer to there's no hard and fast here's what you should do with

players who have issues off the field and that is widely varying um we're finally getting past suspending guys for weed which which I think is good, but dealing with violent issues and players and things that happen outside of the building. And then who gets to have a redemption story and who doesn't is something that I don't think that they've ever resolved. I don't think we've ever figured out in sports and there's a hundred different examples that we could come up with. So I'm more just presenting the problem with no possible solution that I have just, uh, but I do think that as this goes forward, the Vikings will eventually move on from him and the way that they've handled their cornerback room sort of suggests that bringing in Bashad Breeland, bringing in Patrick Peterson, um, you know,

Cam Dantzler is still in the mix here. They've brought in a couple of other guys, uh, you know, that are, have some NFL experience like Perry Nickerson and Ty Smith. So it's clear to me that they're not expecting to have Jeff Gladney and maybe just waiting to see how the legal process plays out. All right. Let's move on to less heavy topics. Yeah. We move from, Hey, I swear I won't talk about vaccinations too, but this guy, right? Like this is football for you, I guess. Okay. Here's a fun one. Why doesn't Brian O'Neill have a contract yet, Brad, what is going on there? So O'Neill's played this well. We knew there was going to be some sort of market correction at right tackle. I shouldn't say correction. It's been growing pretty solidly, but we knew there were some big deals coming. Ryan Ramchick is the obvious one. And I think these guys, the year behind Ramchick in the draft,

understood that let's wait for this guy to sign his deal. He is going to sign a crazy extension that potentially flirts with the left tackle market at right tackle, really solidifies, you know, the Lane Johnson deal. Teams have always said this is an outlier contract. This is not one you can use as a benchmark because, you know, lane johnson deal teams have always said this is an outlier contract this is not one you can use as a benchmark because you know long story short lane johnson is like orlando brown where he was supposed to be the left tackle in philadelphia but uh jason peters just never retired and played until he's 40 years old so when they kept him at right tackle he said okay fine i'll play here but you're gonna pay me like a left tackle because i should be you know in theory

playing over there so teams often were able to say, look, that content doesn't count. The market is actually, you know, the rest of the guys. Now Ramchick has said, no, right tackles can be paid commensurate with left tackles. Still a touch below, but you know, 19.2 million per year for Ramchick is a top five deal among all tackles. The guarantees are extremely strong. I think only trailing Ronnie Stanley, Baltimore left tackle in terms of total guarantees and fully guaranteed signing. So they were smart to do that. Then Taylor Moton comes along and kind of solidifies it in Carolina. Gets $17 million per year.

Not as good, but further just kind of illustrates, look, this is a new market we're operating in. Lastly, Braden Smith in Indianapolis, I think is the really important one for Brian O'Neill, 17 and a half million in new money, also a 2018 draft pick taken just after Brian O'Neill. That also, I think, solidified, look, like this is the market now. You can't argue that, you know, Ramchick's not an outlier, Moton's not an outlier. We have three guys now in this range. And so I now think O'Neal's floor is $17 million per year. Might even be a touch higher than that. And so I think he was smart to wait. And now, you know, you're operating in a new world, in a new reality.

And so what do the Vikings do now here? Because this is their one proven offensive lineman. And their salary cap is going to be really interesting going forward because Daniel Hunter, if he has a big year is going to want to redo that contract and it's set up to do that, which we'll get to. So don't go into that one just yet. But they're, they've got a bunch of players who are on one year contracts, which you could say, well,

that's good because they're not locked into them same time time, if they play well, then you got to resign them or you got to let them go and do it again and spend a bunch of money again. And the quarterback contract could be traded after this year, especially with the recent tension. It feels more and more like that quarterback contract is being traded. And then two years out from now, we have this TV money that's going to come in and sort of change the landscape there. It seems to me like this would be something the Vikings would want to do. But from Brian O'Neill's standpoint, if he plays well again, and you're talking about this market just continuing to go up and up and up, we have rarely seen Vikings

players bet on themselves. But if he bet on himself here, I mean, he could be talking about a massive, massive payday or, I mean, potentially getting franchise tagged, which is, it's not great, but it's also a lot of money if you get franchise tagged now, because these right tackle contracts have gone up so high. So that is the calculation there. And I think it's kind of a weird kind of negative implication of the right tackle market rising. But so the offensive line all receives one franchise tag amount. So that was always historically. Yeah. So that was always historically terrible news. If you're a left tackle. Great news if you're a center because like teams are just not going to franchise tag a center because it's, you know, basically the tag is like the five highest paid left tackles, and that applies to everyone. But now, you know, teams would be more open to tagging your right

tackle because the number isn't going to be so crazy as compared to the right tackle market. So in a weird way, it kind of works against O'Neal being okay with that. And so I do think an early extension makes sense for both parties. He could bet on himself and, you know, if he does test free agency or try to, you know, might get a really really substantial deal but at the same time if you can lock in right now you know four years 68 or you know 68 70 72 million dollars you probably go ahead and take that and i think from the vikings perspective the way you justify it well a you need to extend a draft pick at offensive line just to make fans on twitter shut the hell up but also you just took christian derisaw so tell

yourself look when if he turns out to the player we want him to be at left tackle by the time he's up for a new deal you know o'neill will be multiple years into his deal we can kind of offset things we can kind of stagger cap hit stuff like that because of the savings at left tackle. It's okay to pay the right tackle. Now, you know, you probably don't have any other big extensions coming up. You know, maybe we'll see another first round offensive lineman, the center there, but I don't think he's going to get a, a market setting deal there. So I think that's how you look at it.

Okay. That detail is why you're on the show because and why you work for pro football focus is because I was not aware that the tag was applied to all offensive line which seems totally crazy I I kind of can't believe that that's the case that because they're so different in terms of their positional value and in terms of how much they get paid that that works so strongly against the tackles and so strongly for the centers and guards that it seems very odd but then again there's the whole outside linebacker edge rusher defensive end type of thing there's the tight end wide receiver type of thing where jimmy graham tried to fight that didn't work out super well for him that to me

then solidifies they need to get something done because they will just franchise tag him next year and get a decent deal for a right tackle for another year so you're not only betting on yourself for one year you'd have to bet on yourself for two years so so that to me if you're his agent you're saying look man you don't want to risk ankles knees whatever bulging, for example, to lose a potential lot of money. Speaking of which, Daniil Hunter reworks his contract. This was a thing throughout the summer where as bleak as it looked at times, Brad, I always

remained steadfast that the Vikings pay absolutely everyone and they get things worked out with everyone that's just how they do business uh and if you're a player you've got to appreciate it that they always seem to work something out at the same time now you're going to give me your take here I thought Hunter settled here and made this kind of easy on them so give me your breakdown of Daniel Hunter's contract and what it means well I guess you don't need to have me on anymore. Yeah, no, I'm learning from you. Can you see it? No, very, very, very astute. A hundred percent. I think at the end of the day, he got a very small concession, which was when they converted some of that, you know, money into a bonus. They also turned his 500,000 in per game roster bonuses,

which, you know, he obviously would have had to earn by playing each game. They basically just made that in part of the bonus. Beyond that, he got nothing. So he he he like arguably didn't get any raise at all. Maybe arguably he got like a couple, you know, maybe one hundred thousand dollar raise, because if you only played 14 games, he wouldn't have earned, you know, you know, a couple of thirty thousand dollar paycheck. So really not a big deal at all. He did definitely 14 games. He wouldn't have earned, you know, a couple $30,000 paychecks. So really not a big deal at all. He did definitely concede. I mean, look, Aaron Rodgers also got nothing. You know, the media did a great job trying to pretend like he got a bunch of concessions.

He got nothing. So Hunter kind of same way. You get some cash up front, but the Vikings get the cap relief. No raise. But at the same time, creating that ultimatum for hunter is a big deal they essentially have to make a decision now after this season they could have kept prolonging this argument in this debate um through the end of the contract he signed um but yeah no at the end of the day really it's he didn't really get much so if he comes back and he's looked good so far in

training camp but let's say we're you know we're just in training camp, but let's say we're, you know, we're just starting padded practices, but let's say that he's Daniel Hunter. He's great. He gets 14 sacks. Then what happens? See, the thing here is that the edge rusher market was very interesting to me this off season, um, where I think it, I won't call it a full correction because there weren't a, there weren't like great players there. And B obviously we know all about the cap and all that, you know, cap dropping because of you know COVID and all that but still there were other positions

where there were you know there was growth at them so it's not you know it's not a full indictment but I think at this point you know I probably said on this show I thought he would ask for like 25 million per year which would still be below a Joey Bosa you know be you know would be a top paid edge rusher but not surpass those guys. I now think at this point, if you're him, you get even if it's a huge year, if you get an offer for, you know, five years, 100 million, maybe more than that, 105 million, so 21 million per year, or maybe five years, 110 million to 22 million per year, you probably have to more strongly consider it.

I think if you test the open market, if say vikings if the vikings offer that you say someone else will do better i'll test free agency someone's gonna offer me 525 there's not really a guarantee that happens um whereas i would have said there was you know pre all of this so it's gonna be very interesting if he has the neil hunter type season it's a tough decision for him, really. Like, do you take a deal or do you force their hand and go somewhere else? I want to remind you to go to sodastick.com to get your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. If you have not seen it yet, you've got to check it out.

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Original Minnesota sports inspired goods. Code Purple Insider for free shipping. And normally what we've seen is take a deal, but the status of this whole franchise, I feel like is just teetering. I mean, the way that things have been with the same people in charge year after year after year and sort of the same results in most of the seasons,

that puts pressure on a front office and on a head coach. And I wonder, and I'm going to tie this into our next subject. I wonder about how some of the guys who have been here a long time would feel if there was a big change. And that goes for Anthony Barr, who can be a free agent now after this year. I figured that one out myself, Brad, that the way that his contract is set up is so he can become a free agent after this year. And I wonder about it with Daniil Hunter, even if he has a great year, if there are changes, if he would just say, let me start fresh. And the same thing potentially for Harrison Smith, who does not have a contract. Now I'm going to ask you a question here. I don't think you have an answer for it, but I wonder about, I'm not directing this at anybody in particular,

vaccination status and signing long-term contract extensions. If I'm a team, I can't not consider it, right? Because this doesn't seem to be going away. I think we'll be having protocols for 2022 or whatever, the way that things look right now. The Vikings have not signed Harrison Smith to a contract extension. Again, I'm not trying to report who's vaccinated and who's not, but I do wonder about that type of thing and whether that would make a difference for teams

working out extensions sort of at this time of year. I think it has to, especially, you know, we look at, you know, Hunter, he would be one of the younger good players that would potentially hit the market, you know, at edge rusher. So, like, maybe the reason he maybe does test it is because a lot of the guys that are due next year is like Von Miller, maybe Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston. Those guys are all 32, 33 plus. You know, Harris is that guy at safety. And there's a lot of potentially good safeties. You know, Marcus Williams on the franchise tag, Marcus May on the franchise tag. You know know so it's a tougher market for him and yes then to that point as well I mean yes it has to be a consideration even if you think this year is the last year they have to deal with

it which like you said I agree there's a there's a calculable possibility that next year that we're also dealing with you have to get tested every day and go through all these things and whatever. Yeah. That's a hassle that as a team, like you, you deal with it for a guy that's already signed and you deal with it for like a, you know, a one-year signing, whatever, you're not going to give like a substantial extension to a guy. You know, if that's part of the calculation, it certainly may weigh against it. So yeah, obviously we have no idea his particular situation, but if you're also entering with age 33 season and you're adding new ways to potentially miss games, like we're already factoring in injury and age and all these things that already are a problem. If you're adding another variable, why would we stick our necks out a bit?

Even as great a player as he's been his entire career there. Yeah, I mean, it should be part of the calculation. Let's say that's not an issue. What is Harrison Smith worth for a contract extension? So the way I look at Harrison Smith, I think we actually have two great data points to look at is Devin McCourty in New England and then Malcolm Jenkins in New Orleans. They both signed basically two-year extensions. Devin McCourty was an actual two-year deal. Malcolm Jenkins was a four-year deal, but it was a two-year deal. And so Devin McCourty was $23 million over two, so $11.5 million per year with substantial guarantees, $17 million total of the $23 million, and then $13 million fully guaranteed at signing. Malcolm Jenkins, like I

said, it was a four-year deal, but realistically, it was a two-year deal for about $16.25 million. All that was fully guaranteed. Harrison Smith, I think a $25 million extension over two years. So just edge out Devin McCourty a little bit, $12.5 million per year, which is above where he's at, which in a very dormant, weak safety market is still a good payday, is a fair deal for all parties. He has $9.85 million left for this year. So in totality, it would be three years at about $35 million, which is another, you know, solid value. And I crunched a couple numbers here. Like if you just on that, you know, framework of a deal I worked out, $12 million signing bonus, you drop his salary down to the minimum for this year. You'd clear about 6.4 million in cap space, you know, in 2021, if you go ahead and do this extension now. So clear a good chunk. You know, he gets a solid

payday, retires a Viking, career-long Viking. I think he has no, you know, no issue with that deal. The potential cog in the operation is, you know you have jamal adams and i think tyron matthew um both guys that he might like we talked about with brian o'neill harrison smith might also the delay might actually be him sitting there and going i'll just wait till jamal signs and gets maybe 17 a year and then tyron matthew might come in and get you know 15 15 and a half as an older guy. And then I'll get, you know, 14 instead of 12 and a half. Yeah, that could be the delay. And I also thought of the possibility of Harrison Smith wanting to championship chase potentially after this year, that if you don't know if your head coach is going to be here, or if the organization is going to change a lot of different things, or even if you decide to move on from Kirk Cousins and draft the quarterback, you're really talking about, sorry to your bears for the statement,

but you're really talking about not winning that year. If you draft the quarterback, you're talking about in the future is usually how that works out. And if you're Harrison Smith and you only got two years left, three years left of being a great player, do you want to spend it with a rookie quarterback going through those bumps? Or do you want to go try to sign with whoever you know is the kind of uh the hot team for that year and all those things i i think are a consideration in why he has not um signed yet so let me get you oh actually i want to say you're going to be proud of me because i did a podcast earlier this year where i tried to sort of guess at the Harrison extension and I used Malcolm Jenkins. So you should be proud. I'm coming along. The cap stuff is complicated, but

doing comps, I can sort of figure it out. Let me ask you one more thing. And that's about Aaron Rogers. You brought it up. And that was something that of course, from one state over, we watched very closely all summer long. Once again, I, that was where I stood was he's going to come back. He's got no other option. It's not a good idea to retire when your team is actually really good and you could potentially go to the super bowl. But it seems that after this, after this year,

Aaron Rogers will be traded the way that things have worked out unless he wins the Super Bowl and walks off like John Elway. Is that correct? I, I, the last point I totally agree with, unless they win the Super Bowl, I think it's a foregone conclusion. He'll, he'll get traded and be playing for somebody else. Cause look, we've already seen them make, you know, back-to-back NFC championship games. So that's not enough to keep him around. Yeah. So I'm with you a hundred percent there. If they do win it, I think it'll be interesting to see if he retires and walks away a champion or if he like comes back to green Bay for one more season and tries to win back to back. But yeah, we're on, we're on the same page there. And we also, yeah, I, you know, I knew

it was too good to be true that he'd be gone this year. At least we hopefully are done with him after one more year. You've been watching justin fields camp updates he apparently is starting to turn on the jets the first couple days the stories were that dalton like just looked like a vet and fields kind of looked like a rookie totally fine not like not like freaking out whereas it's funny in hindsight the trubisky updates from camp like you can tell the guy wasn't good they found it they dug into the thorus to find words to say like average mediocre. Apparently the last couple of days, he's like really turned it on to where he's starting to like raise some

eyebrows. Well, the Vikings don't play the bears until late in the season. So if he turns on the jets at some point in the season and you play late season, Justin Fields, and he's good, then that really changes the shape of how the Viking schedule looks. Although they've lost to Chad Hutchinson and Kyle Orton and Jim Miller and all the other Mitch Trubisky Mitch Trubisky multiple times. There was the time chase Daniel came in and won a game against them.

So, you know, if they have a good quarterback, that's, that's a little scary for Vikings fans, Brad Spielberger. I think that you're at PFF Brad now, right? Yep. Okay, perfect. So follow your work there, pff.com. And your work, I don't know if we've talked recently, like how recently it was, but your work throughout free agency for PFF is just invaluable for all of us to understand everything that's going on better. So I appreciate you and people should follow you.

And I'll probably include a couple of these notes as I, you know, write things going forward because I pick up so much every time we talk. So thanks for your education and for your time, man. Yeah. Thanks for having me back on. Always a good time. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.