Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Brad Spielberger lays out the Vikings' offseason plan

Episode Date: January 20, 2023

Matthew Coller talks with PFF's cap expert Brad Spielberger about the team's timeline, what went right and wrong about 2022, whether it was a success and what's next with the cap, veteran players and which direction Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will go with the franchise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. hello welcome to another episode of purple insider matthew collar here and since it is officially vikings off season we are in off season mode and who better to lay out the future plan than brad spielberger of pro football focus returning to the show he is research and development salary cap analyst also contributor to over the cap. He is research and development, salary cap analyst, also contributor to OverTheCap.com. You know who he is by now. What is going on, Brad?

Here we are in the off season. Here we are. The off season arrived maybe earlier than some expected. I think it's a right on schedule for others, present company included. But, hey, it was a fun game. It was a fun year. And now the uh the better teams advance in the in the divisional round well i guess the topic du jour here i i'd like your

opinion on it as well is was this season a success because last year you and i of course had a long conversation going into the offseason about all the things they could do and then once they did all the things i think both you and i were projecting a first round out type of season, but not a 13 win season with all the crazy things they had in the fun game. So I think that if you set out as a fan to just have a good time because you never saw them as a Super Bowl contender to begin with, then you walk away from the season and be like, okay, entertainment value A plus. But if you are a person like many listeners to the show, who pay a lot of attention to front office theory and stuff like that, and team building and timelines and all those things, then you look at this as a big punch in the gut. And I think that

having been in the locker room the other day, a lot of players viewed it that way is like this was our chance with the 13 win season and now things get very difficult which will lay out so a success for Kevin O'Connell and Kweisi Adafo-Mensa and the Wilf ownership or not yeah so I'm glad that we have all this on record so we're not just kind of retrofitting our takes or anything we said on the show I said no I actually said they're going to be a playoff team i tweeted that out i thought they were going to be a wild card which you know they were better than that they won the division not a very good division but they they won it pretty convincingly but no i said they have to win a playoff game you know at least one um and look the giants match up well against them they do but you can't make that excuse it's a team that people thought we're going to win four or

five games this year, myself included. So I was wrong about that side. But no, it isn't because my biggest thing, as you mentioned there, is, again, it's about the value you get of what you have. If the Giants making the playoffs with their roster is more impressive than the Vikings winning the NFC North with all the money they spent and winning 11 one-score games and losing zero in the regular season,

you've got to compare it from a, not just an absolute thing, but a relative to how much money they're spending, everything they've done. And if you do that, the answer is no. Yeah. I mean, I think that right now at this moment, it's very hard to call it that even though they put themselves in a position win wise to have a chance and to make an argument for themselves as a legitimate contender. But when you get matched up with a nine win team and they really run you out of your own building, especially with your defense that you spent so much money on. I mean, this was a good point by Paul Hodowanek, who also is on the show here that he,

that they were like 15th in spending on defense. I mean, you're an above average spending on defense team with a performance that could have been put down by the dead last spending team. I mean, if they had just kept around a bunch of players that they drafted in the past and gave everybody a shot to see if anyone emerged, they might've ended up with similar results. Maybe not as many clutch plays as they got.

Of course, I'm not saying anyone can be Patrick Peterson or anyone can be Daniel Hunter or something, but you know, they really made a lot of these moves to sacrifice for the future, to try to shore up the defense. And they were hoping to get the 15th best defense out of this. And instead they end up with a defense so poor, even when it was completely healthy, that Daniel Jones is now going to make $40 million a year. And then just watching the New York media talk about Daniel Jones is like, you do know that he played the Vikings defense, two of those huge games that you guys are talking about. But that is so far below expectations. But I also think, too, it sort of speaks to a couple of things.

When you bet on defense, like, oh, we're going to make a bet with Harrison Phillips. We're going to make a bet with Jordan Hicks. We're going to bring in these players. It's very volatile. I mean, you pick the wrong defensive coordinator, which they clearly did. And all of a sudden you're just falling apart at the biggest moment. So I think that, you know, if you went back and sort of did a brain experiment, like imagine you swapped places with Seattle, you're both first round outs but they helped themselves significantly for the future and you didn't I mean you'd rather be them than the Vikings right now going forward and that's kind of what we talked about when we're talking about tearing things down and starting over I mean you

talk about the defense first they were horrific they're one of the worst defenses the NFL you the second half of the year I think the last time they give up fewer than 20 points was like week eight I could be wrong on that but it's it's been a long long time they averaged over 30 points allowed for the second half of the entire season not always against great offenses um I guess the Bears they held 13 points you know what Nathan Peterman or whatever but nevertheless um yeah but then your best players are Harrison Smith is what? 33 years old. Patrick Peterson is a 32 year old pending free agent and just had the highest grade year of his career.

So you're not getting that again. And then Zedaria Smith, great season. It was a good signing, but the structure basically was a one year deal kind of betting that he'll stay healthy. And then we'll see. And now the calculation is, okay, he was good, but do you want to pay him this kind of boosted value? The cash flow goes up significantly. The cap and all those things goes up.

And then Daniel Hunter, another great year, but do you pay him? Because he's not going to play another year on this contract, so on and so forth. Dalvin Tomlinson, another key contributor, is a pending free agent. So the defense is going to get worse. I mean, it's not going to get better. So all those players I mentioned are over 30 or pending free agents or both. Think that on defense, even more than offense, you need guys.

Like, I don't think – McFangio, when he got to the Bears, the first year he was there, his defense was horrendous because there was literally zero talent. So I do think there is kind of a caveat there. But, yeah, it's not going to get better. It's probably – and, you know, you'll get Lewis Seen and Andrew Booth, and hopefully they can turn a caveat there, but yeah, it's not going to get better. It's probably, and you know, you'll get Lewis seen and Andrew Booth and hopefully they can turn things around and, you know, see growth from a Caleb Evans and so on and so forth. But it is a bleak picture looking at 2023. Yeah. And I think that a lot of it, as far as where we would be right now was

not like, it didn't take, you know, capture Domus to figure out where they were going to be or drafter Domus to figure that they'd be looking at their draft from last year and going like, is this really going to change your fate for the future? Even if Louis seen is good, he's a safety. And I remember on draft night, I think that a renter's comp for him was like Adrian Amos. Like, well, that's a nice player, but that's not a franchise changer by any means. And even if Andrew Booth, the same thing, like we don't know if he could be healthy, even though I think he's a very talented player. So there's a lot up in the air and Ed Ingram allowed more pressures than anybody in the league. He got destroyed by Dexter Lawrence in the first

round again, could be good, but he's going to need years of development. It's not like anybody could walk out of that building and be like, we are set up for the future. And on the offensive side, and I hate to reference this because it feels so weird, but like Adam Thielen's wife putting something out on Instagram that suggests that he's not very happy with the opportunity, is the word that she used, that he got. He had over 100 targets and ranked in the top 30 in targets.

So I'm not sure what more opportunity he thinks he's going to get. is the word that she used that he got get over 100 targets and ranked in the top 30 in target so i'm not sure what more opportunity he thinks he's going to get but all of the sudden isn't it amazing how fast that light switch flips when they lose just like oh yeah we all love each other greatest locker room ever ever season over all for myself and and that's look at that's the league and every team is all for themselves as well but i mean that sort of creates a little bit of an uncomfortable situation with them as well and I wanted to go through some players in their future and maybe that's a good place to start because I think we assume that the one thing that could make them competitive again for next year is if they ran back the entire offense which which ranked eighth in scoring. And if you can have a top 10 offense, you can compete for the division and have a chance.

But if Adam Thielen wants out, and then you're talking about a guy who's going to be, I think, 33 years old, they didn't get any development different from KJ Osborne. They have TJ Hawkinson, who's a nice player. There's still a big interior offensive line issue. And Delvin Cook is no longer the Delvin Cook that he used to be so he has to be moved out and replaced like there's a lot of work to do on the offensive side as well I think uh even though we kind of look at that as like oh I'll set because you got Jefferson yeah he obviously helps and look I'll do respect to Adam Thielen I think he

had more targets than he deserved I mean he was not creating separation at a consistent level at any point. You watch some clips of him, and he just cannot get open on guys, even on short intermediate routes where you'd think you'd be able to kind of, you know, separate earlier in the routes down. I mean, no, it's the opposite. I think he probably had more opportunity than he probably currently dictates. For Hawkinson, I think it was probably my favorite trade of the deadline for the team because I think, yes, you have big capital,

but getting those picks back, obviously, I think is very helpful and is a smart move. But at the same time, he's now going to become one of the three highest-paid tight ends in the NFL this offseason, which, again, he deserves. He was phenomenal. It was a good trade. I'm not knocking that. But, again, it's a value conversation.

Is TJ Hawkinson, on the fourth year of his rookie deal, a phenomenal value? Yes. Is he still going to be a phenomenal value at 16 million dollars per year i mean probably not i mean he'll be fine you know i'm not he's not going to fall off a cliff but um so yes that gets complicated it helps to have two good bookend tackles that will be something to build on in the future but like you said garrett bradbury finally plays well and is now out the door you know you know it's a pending for agent as well do you pay him when he's going to try to argue first round pedigree and and and only talk about his 2022 even though he stunk for three years before that and he still is an average at best pass blocker he is a good zone run blocker that's a fact but you know I'm not splurging on

center when I have so many other needs across the roster um and then Dalvin too yeah like he doesn't have juice I mean it happens like it's he is still you know he's valuable that he can do everything you can throw to him you can but like he doesn't have juice like even Madison sometimes who's not the burstiest player you know it was complicated with their they both went to single digit numbers um and their hair can block their number sometime in the jersey I'm not trying to be one of those guys but like sometimes I'll be like oh oh, like, Dalvin looking better. I'll be like, oh, no, that was Madison who actually had some nice bursts out of the backfield there.

So, yeah, it's dire straits on offense as well. And PFF graded Madison higher this year than Dalvin Cook, and I think that was right based on the rushing yards over expectation, which Cook was very poor when it came to that, that he was the worst running back in terms of rushing yards over expectation, which is based on how close the defenders are, how well it's blocked, the worst in the entire super wild card round. And that's not what you expect from Delvin Cook when he's an expensive running back.

And it sort of goes again to, and I'm not trying to pat ourselves on the back. I'm only trying to say that some of these things are just things that you can see coming when you lock yourself into players because you love them. I mean, if you approach this in the most ruthless and prudent way, which is very hard to do with owners and with fans and everything else and popularity. But Delvin Cook won that negotiation hands down against the Vikings in 2020, got an incredible deal for himself when they could have said, man, we're just going to let this play out because you're a running back and we'll just draft another one. Like, you know, I mean, the Seahawks just draft Kenneth Walker and now you got another good guy. Like they're out there.

They're around. And even Ty Chandler looked great in preseason. And maybe he's a guy like you never know uh but they did they didn't and i think they handcuffed quesia da fomensa because cutting delvin cook did basically really no good last offseason but now it's time to move on and i think that the discussion is we sort of laid out all the problems there that they have to deal with and now it's how do you solve them? So there's a couple of different ways they could go. And it's kind of like one of the meters. I like to use

little meters on the show. So like the red meter would be full, like tear this stuff down, tell Kirk, you're not extending him and trade him to the jets and you know, do all sorts of stuff, right? Rip it all to the ground, Get as much draft capital as you possibly can. As much cap space. That's what the Bears did. Do something like that and have some pain involved. But that's what you're going to do. Then there's the yellow, which I guess we will call the competitive rebuild,

where you kind of, you know, you prune the bushes a little bit and you sort of move on from a Kendricks, from a Cook. But you keep feeling, you keep Harrison Smith, prune the bushes a little bit and you sort of move on from a Kendricks, from a Cook, but you keep feeling, you keep Harrison Smith and you kind of try to piece together through free agency and hope that your draft works out. Although they don't have almost any picks and they have a first, a third, a fourth and a fifth. That's it. It's kind of crazy, but that's like the competitive rebuild. And then there's like the run it back so that's uh no wait let's see competitive rebuild would be the orange and the yellow is like run it back a little bit with a couple of little changes and then there's just like do nothing except for the

same thing you've been doing like where do you think on that scale sorry if that was complicated where they end up landing so the thing thing here is, it should be orange. I think because you have Justin Jefferson and TJ Hawkinson, you kind of have to like, you shouldn't just completely bottom out and be terrible. I mean, at some spots, maybe again, like we talked about the defense already was terrible. So it probably can't get that much worse

if you just go cheap there. And honestly, just build off of effort and energy and see if you, like you said, let young guys play and maybe it'll be better. if not they'll learn from it and get better for the future but the thing is and it's again and I'm not trying to you know always blame Kirk but the issue is he can hold you hostage because of his contract situation with the franchise tag that not being available it's what I talked about last offseason. His 2023 year basically is a franchise tag. The Vikings realized if we're going to get value from him by trading him elsewhere, we

always have to be one year ahead of the contract. So the thing is, if you're not trading in this offseason, you have to do it again. Because if you don't do it again, he's walking after 2023 and you're getting zero return. So that's the hard part like the hard part and look he played well I know obviously the fourth and you know needed eight wanted three was ridiculous on the last play of the game he was good in the game otherwise I'll give him credit um but that's the issue is that like yeah if you trade him who are you who's your quarterback right you have kind of nothing waiting in the wings Nick Mullins is not your long-term starter at quarterback so I would go orange but the orange still might be giving Kirk a one-year

40 million dollar extension for 2024 and ending up kind of right back in this boat okay but if I'm Kirk's agent though let's do a little mock negotiation you love those all right so I'm Kirk's agent I'm amazing super rich and I'm amazing, super rich. And I'm like, let's see. Let's call it the old pro football reference page. Let's see. You guys criticized him for being a 500 quarterback, but I see 13 wins last season.

So that was the thing you said he couldn't do. I heard that he wasn't clutch in our last negotiation, but I see eight fourth quarter comebacks. I see a top 10 offense. I see a defense that was the problem. It's not my fault. You guys can't draft a guard who can block. So I think I want a five-year contract extension like Russell Wilson got because my client's numbers add up to that.

And it's not his fault that you guys couldn't build a team around him. And tell me why I should ask for anything less than that when he's checked every box that you've asked him to check and in the playoff game it was your defense that blew it you could talk about the last play all you want but your defense not my defense not Kirk Cousins defense he doesn't play corner he doesn't have oily hips he's played quarterback and he played quarterback great in that game under pressure and he showed toughness he showed leadership he connects with your coach now your coach even likes him why am i not asking for five years and 150 million dollars guaranteed and you could argue he took

more hits than any quarterback in the nfl this year so hey like he's taking all these shots why would i not want more protection more Like you said, more long-term guarantees in case something does happen because my client can't always be Superman and withstand all this and still stand tall and take it all. Yeah, you're right. You're right. There's no reason for them to accept the one year. Coming off last year, I think you could get away with it.

This offseason, they would probably say no, unless it's literally a one-year, $50 million fully guaranteed, just like basically, again, a super flex franchise tag. But you're right. He should look for long-term assurance, and there is no reason for the Minnesota Vikings to be giving a substantial multi-year contract to a quarterback right now because there is no chance that they are going to be a contender the next three or four years with the pricey quarterback. The only way they get back to that is if they kind of bottom out next year, like I said, orange. So do some things, but again, you know, kind of clear the books,

pick early and probably take a quarterback in that class. And then you have still a 26 year old Justin Jefferson, a 27, 28 year old TJ Hawkinson. You still have the bookends in Derrissaw and O'Neal, and that is the fastest way, let's say in 2025, to maybe actually be back in contention if that young quarterback does pan out. That is the fastest route. There is no route that involves paying Kirk Cousins where you're back in contention. So you're right. You're right.

So maybe a trade is coming, and the thing there is it would be great. You get the draft capital. You probably still can't take a quarterback this year, at least not in the first round. Maybe you go like an Anthony Richardson route or a Tanner McKee out of Stanford and kind of get creative, but would you rather just wait and take a guy, you know, maybe top 10 the year after, but you're right. I mean, yeah, there's no reason for Kirk to do that again. He played, he, he deserves a multi-year, you know, commitment from whoever team it's going to be. Folks, maybe you've noticed people in your office with what looks like an open tall boy at their desk in the morning at work.

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Liquid Death sent me some cases, and their water and their sparkling lime are both delicious, and maybe I'll have to start pounding them in front of my friends who know I'm not a drinker, just to see their reaction. So go get Liquid Death at your local Target, Whole Foods Market, or Hy-Vee, or find a Liquid Death retailer near you with their store locator tool at liquiddeath.com slash insider. That's liquiddeath.com slash insider. So I look at Seattle as maybe what they could be, but I just don't know how realistic it is. And this is what's hard to figure out. You have a new general manager and you have an ownership

who's now more invested than they were before, which makes this way more volatile than before. I mean, when Rick Spielman was just doing whatever he wanted and then calling the Wilfs and telling them about it, like we figured out Rick pretty good and we could predict pretty well what they were going to do. And plus they were in win now mode from 2017 on, really 2016 on when they trade for Sam Bradford. So we know what win now mode looks like. It means overpaying Michael Pierce and stuff to try to fill spots because you thought the run wasn't good enough defense. So like that's what they were doing for such a long time. And then last year they just did the same exact thing. And if Rick had been running it, it wouldn't have

been any different. But now with like this cold splash of water of reality of where you stand in the future with no assets in the draft and no cap space to work with. And when you say, oh, we'll just get rid of a bunch of guys, but you have to replace them with someone who's just as good. Harrison Smith was not a superstar this year, but he's still pretty darn good. So if you're just like, oh, we'll plug in someone else, that player could be worse. Adam Thielen, 70 catches, 11 yards a catch. That's not what nobody does. You know what I mean? Or anybody. I mean, you can't just get anyone to have as many catches as that or catch as many balls just without dropping one or whatever else. So it's not easy if you just start clearing out and creating new blood. But I think that the

complicating factor is and was last year, Justin Jefferson. He makes this equation totally different because if you had Joe, whoever, as your wide receiver, number one, who cares? You just do whatever you got to do at that point. But withfferson you want him to be on your team for the rest of his existence in the national football league how do you make a case for him if kurt cousins is saying nine signing no extension with you guys sorry guys but i've had enough of this and uh you know if other players are leaving the locker room that they love so much is coming apart and everybody on the outside like us is and he hears this stuff is talking about your team is going to fall apart you need to rebuild all that

stuff how do you make a case to justin jefferson put your name on that piece of paper for whatever it is for a seven-year deal five-year deal or does it have to be a dk meccafs or a shorter deal like how do you view where justin where Justin Jefferson stands in all of this? It's the most complicating factor. I mean, he's arguably right now the most valuable non-quarterback in the entire NFL. I don't think that's a controversial statement by any means. And the interesting thing is he is eligible for an extension this off season, but for the most part with the first round picks,

teams try to wait until after the fourth year, you know, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown yada yada yada were second round picks or later so they were going into the last year of their deal with Jefferson obviously has the fifth year option which is going to be the easiest exercise in the history of fifth year options but yeah if he also sees everything kind of you know crumbling around him and they do decide to tear things down he he might say, okay, well, you know what? I won't cause any problems. I won't raise any fuss, but you're going to have to give me five years,

$150 million this offseason. I'm not going to wait until after next year, or maybe I get hurt, or maybe I'm catching passes from Nick Mullins, and my stats are going to come down, and then you're going to argue that I actually – no, look, I am the best wide receiver or one of them in the NFL. I have proven that for three years now. So if you're going to do this, that's fine.

But you're also going to make me the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL and that he should do that. I think there is that case, but there's also the I think that Justin Jefferson wants to win. And I don't think you could say that for everyone. I think there are a lot of players in the league and i and i don't think you could say that for everyone i think there are a lot of players in the league and this is not a criticism like you're a personal business so like make your money or whatever who just go to the highest bidder and whatever happens happens um but with jefferson he has like some digs to him digs was more outward with this because things had gone badly and they wouldn't throw him the football and so forth, which I think Buffalo's slightly proved that that was a good idea. But I mean, he was,

he was very clear in locker clean out that like this, this means a lot to him being a winner. Like he views himself as a winner and to have not won a playoff game in three years. It's also kind of proof that a receiver is not going to just get you there on his own, like maybe quarterback, but other positions, they just, no matter how much you pay them, they won't do it on their own. They can be shut down in a single playoff game and you can just lose like they did. But, you know, I think that is a factor here and that ties into the Kirk thing. It's like, do you go to Jefferson? And I don't even know if this is something that could even happen. Like, I don't know if the NFL works this way. I don't think it really does, but the S Jefferson, should we just give them the five years? Like, do you want them to be your quarterback? But then you're tying yourself into the same problems for many years to

come. So, but if you leave him with quarterback uncertainty, then what, like, I don't think this is a Larry Fitzgerald where the guy's just going to spend his whole career in one place if you give him Ryan Lindley and whatever other quarterbacks John Skelton that they ran out there like I think he desperately wants to win and if you're him and they come to you you're like you got to show me how you're going to win I don't even think he cares who throws in the ball I think he just wants to win I hear that I mean at that point I think you probably have to get creative. I mean, maybe you're in the conversation of like, do you trade for Trey Lance, which again, obviously you don't have draft capital, but like, do you try to find an unconventional way to bring in a talent

that you can believe is a true building block and maybe a potential franchise quarterback, but obviously you acquire them, you know, for a, for a reason, because they're not really needed where they are right now, which does bring the price down but also has its own reasons. And then B, it's still a risk. It's still a gamble. But I think that would be – ask him that. A, if it's not Kirk, who would you like to play with in the NFL that's a young player on a cheap contract

that maybe we could actually have a reasonable means to acquire? Because, yeah, I hear you on that. I mean, look, he's a national champion in in college he's not used to losing at all and he better get used to it for next season but that that could help kirk more than more than anything i suppose uh they obviously have a good connection they're not you know that you know we've seen the videos of jefferson getting frustrated i think it's more him wanting to win than hating kirk i think that kind of gets overblown i really do um but you also try to explain to him like we want you to be in a competitive window for the next 10 years, not the next two. Is he going to respond to that? Like, like you're saying, is that going to like, it's hard to sell

that. I mean, like I've been in conversations like that and trying to explain long-term sustainability over chasing a window and to the player's credit, why would they care also? Because they know their career could end on a snap, right? So it's like, it's very hard to sell that message, you know, because it should be, I get why the players don't care. I don't care about how you're going to be in 2028. I want to win in 2023. And I do know how players operate at like his level. And I got to think that fourth and eight is going to stick with Justin Jefferson for a long time. I really do. I mean, I think that, uh, it with digs, the final straw was in San Francisco when he caught a 60 yard touchdown and then couldn't

get the ball the rest of the game. Um, that's, I think that that was like, if there was any, Oh, maybe I'll, you know, we'll win in the playoffs and I'll stick around and we can kumbaya and get together and whatever that was it that was the last straw and i remember being in the locker room with him after and people asked about his future and he was just like you know it was pretty telegraphed that you know he didn't want to be there uh i mean i didn't get that vibe from jefferson like not want to be here but he sort of said something like i'll be where I'm wanted or something like that. And, and that wasn't a very direct, like, oh, absolutely. I'm signing a contract extension

here. Cause I can't get enough of it. It was a little bit of a, I'm not going to commit to that. And that play and everybody can look at all the dots that they want and everything else. And we can have Kurt Warner and we, you know, Roger Staubach, he can break it down and we can have Otto Graham come back and break it down. I don't care what any quarterback or coach or whatever says in just the Jefferson's mind. Why didn't you throw me the ball and give me a chance? I think that's going to stick with him. That was the last play of the season. Everybody knew it. And you didn't find a way to at least let me have a chance to go up and get the football. And that was supposedly the thing that Kirk was doing differently.

I didn't actually see that outside of that play in Buffalo, but it was, oh, he's giving Jefferson a chance to go make these contested catches. And on the biggest moment, he was like, nah, double coverage. I can't. I'm going to check it down. I really think that that is a, and that's the thing that's stuck with receivers about playing with cousins. I think that's got to stick in his mind going forward is like,

you're going to have to show me that it's going to be different than that. Every time there's a big moment and I get erased because my guy won't give me a chance against double coverage. I think you, you let me write to my answer that I was thinking of is the, the, you know, kind of a double edged sword.

But if you look at the dots and broke down the play with Kurt Warner on the Buffalo pass, it would have said, do not throw Justin Jefferson the ball whatsoever. He is triple covered. He is not going to come down with this ball. And he made one of the most miraculous catches in the history of the sport. So he would probably say that too.

Like, I'm always open. I will always get open. I'll find a way to do it. In fourth and eight, you have to throw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage because that is a higher, you know, even if I'm triple covered, that's more likely to convert than throwing a three yard check down to TJ Hawkinson. So, yeah, I mean, that probably will burn him, you know, just, just kind of, you know, bother him for the, for the entire off season because he wanted to make a play.

And look, I mean, they were bracketing him all game long. They were, they were, the safety was just on his side of the field. The Giants were trying to hide it. They were just clearly like beat us without Justin Jefferson. And if you can do that, we'll take the L and say, you know what? We did what we wanted to do, and they couldn't do it, right? So, yeah, the quote also, you know, I always see quotes from players. This is kind of a random tangent, but his agent loved that quote.

Sometimes you see players like, I want to be here. I love Minnesota. I love the team. I love my coaches. I love everyone. I can't imagine playing anywhere else. He said, yeah, I'll be where I wanted. His agent was like, attaboy, Justin.

Hell of an answer to that one. Right. Don't commit to anything that they can throw back in your face. So we've talked about a little bit of red and how that seems unlikely because it's just too radical for this team and orange and the troubles that come along with orange, including convincing Jefferson to sign, convincing Kirk Cousins to stay and run out his contract and all those things, which is a weird situation because I guess Kirk is under contract and he would not want to give up that money by

sitting out or something. But yet, if you have a very unhappy quarterback on the final year of his contract, that is an uncomfortable situation nobody wants. And they had in Washington and they went seven and nine in a very similar situation. So do you really want that? But let's talk about Code Yellow because Code Yellow, I think is, you get, wait, is that the screams of Vikings fans at Code Yellow where they try to run it back and do the same thing again that just ended up the same way everybody thought it was going to end up. I mean, what is Code Yellow? What would that have to look like?

When you look at their salary cap situation and the players that have to move, the draft capital that they have, if it's this competitive rebuild type of thing and they're trying to mostly run it back like they did last offseason how might they do it yeah so code yellow for me is we'll start get out of the way you give kirk let's say a two-year extension if he doesn't want one like you give him multiple years kind of add some flexibility for everyone that has to happen that that is the biggest piece of code yellow but then i also think you probably extend Daniel Hunter. And so you can, you know, you can move cap it down the line.

I mean, look, he was very good. He's kind of a weird fit in the defense, but we'll see if the defense is the same defense next year anyway. But you keep him aboard. You probably also like restructure as a Darius or, or, or, you know, you keep them aboard in some capacity. And then I think you try to convince Patrick Peterson to sign another one year flyer to stick a board and say, hey, be a mentor to these young corners.

You've played so well this year. We are competitive. You want to be a team that contends. We're going to do that again. But then, yeah, it's basically every other tough decision. I think Thielen's probably still gone, even in code yellow. I think that post said a lot. I know you and I are not a fan of reacting to spouses' social media posts, but i think that was meaningful um so it's probably like kendrick's is gone deal

deal and is gone dalvin cook is gone harrison smith stays but you probably restructure there as well i mean that deal is the greatest deal for a player maybe of all time um you know like any of those you know jordan hicks like probably. Like you just try to get young, play Brian Asamoah, play all the other young defenders, but you still keep the edge defenders. You got to convince a corner to stay because it's bleak. Shelly played well on the stretch, but eventually I think offense, they're going to catch up on how to, you know, pick on a five foot nine outside corner.

And look, I'm a big fan of his out of Kansas state, you know, a former bear, but eventually that's going to, it's going to be exposed to a degree. Yeah, so it's keeping the offense relatively the same, minus Thielen and Cook, but I think you honestly can save money and improve in those spots to a degree, maybe not Thielen. And then, yeah, like defense, you just convince yourself that maybe it'll just go better.

They'll gel on the defense. It'll work better, but it's a huge gamble because you're just like we're talking about too and i know vikings fans are sick of hearing this but there is no bigger indicator for regression in all of nfl than one score win loss so there's there's it's they had the best one score win loss record in the history that might never happen again i don't people realize like there might not be a team go 11 and on one score games for the rest of eternity like like um so yeah it's basically you just you honestly just pray that just goes better but how can it go better than this season yeah i think vikings fans understand that better than anyone because

the year before they lost most of the one score games and then you know the randomness and things like that and there was there was skill to it i think you can swing the one score games and then, you know, the randomness and things like that. And there was, there was skill to it. I think you can swing the one score games. Like if you look at Tom Brady and one score games, you'll be shocked, but he wins like two out of every three of them in his career because he's Tom Brady and he can swing that meter. So by having good players and veterans and experience, and, but when you look at the regression points, it's very concerning. That's

one of them. Not only that, you play eight home games, nine road games next year. This year, you played nine home games and seven road games because of the London. So you didn't even have to go to the Superdome where it would have been harder to play the New Orleans Saints. You got to play them on the goofy field in London and kick field goals from the other side of the earth. But that's a factor. And the first place schedule is a factor. I mean, there's just and the draft class from the year before is a factor because those guys are going to have to play. And we don't know what is there or would be expected to play.

So when we talk about regression, there's a lot of markers here that would suggest. And how about the opposing quarterback schedule? The opposing quarterback schedule was insanely easy this year and you finished 28th in defense, but it's going to be harder next year. So you have a more difficult slate with probably less talent, unless you find a way to scrape together and pool together all this money, but how many spots do you have to fill? And I guess the hard part here is, how do we make this seem not dire? But yellow is dire. Yellow is, it really is. Last year, it felt kind of that way, but we also looked at the roster and both of us said, you should make the playoffs. We knew they were good enough. They had put out enough talent to do something, but I'm not sure that they can do that, even with the amount of cap space that they have,

unless they draft Justin Jefferson part two. It's just very hard to see. And I mean, I guess the point is, do you want to wait till it happens? I've called it the natural tank because a lot of teams have waited till it happens. Atlanta waited till it happened. Then they fired Dimitrov and everybody else. And Seattle waited till it happened to move on from Russell Wilson. Or do you want to be a year ahead of it?

And can you convince the ownership and fans too? I think that the fan base in general is if they make all these moves and everybody is gone, you'd be like, wait a minute. Didn't we win 13 games last year? And, and the owners are fans.

So like, I wonder like how those conversations are going or if even Kweisi Adafo-Mensa laid that out from when he got there. It's like, look, I can try to cobble something together to win this year. But at some point, this is just the reality of the NFL. Unless Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback,

you have to regress at some point. Yeah, and then, you you know information that we shouldn't know i'm not sure why we do know but we know quasi's deal is a four-year contract so he wants to bottom out and be bad in the second and third year of his count and it goes into the last year of his deal and hey we won 10 games the last two years combined but but remember 20 you know remember 2022 when it was all rick spielman's team and i kind of just added a couple pieces here and there and the draft class was nonexistent. You know, that's the thing, too, is, like, imagine if they did have

a good draft class this year or had a couple just, like, rotational contributors or something. Yeah, you're basically banking on, all right, Andrew Booth and Lewis Seen are going to get healthy and become starting level, like, plus starters on the defense, which, hey, maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. You're banking on, like you said, drafting, you know, I don't don't know nailing the first round pick this year taking i don't know jackson smith and jigba and you have him and justin jefferson and it's the best young duo in the nfl like you need everything to go right and like you said you're still working against the tide of the

schedule and all the breaks you had this year it's dire it really really is and that's what we said last offseason i think last offseason was the year to get ahead of it you can't really really is and that's what we said last offseason I think last offseason was the year to get ahead of it you can't really get ahead of it now it's reaching its natural end um Z'Darrius Smith and Daniel Hunter are both top 10 in pressures this year like they're like there's just so many signals of regression beyond just the one score thing and all that um it's yeah it's it's a scary time in Minnesota right now well I think that it's only a scary time if you don't admit the reality I mean it right I mean this goes for uh this goes for anything in your life right if you just won't admit what's going on realistically then uh you know you end up

divorced or something I don't know whatever I was I was reaching for a metaphor there but you know denial isn't just a river in Egypt my friend friend. Uh, and I think that I felt, and you felt last off season, like it was denial and what they were doing. However, they made a case by winning that many games that it was justified at least to that point to where when you go into the playoffs with 13 wins, you have a chance to compete for the super bowl. And I wouldn't have ever completely counted that out because the playoffs are weird and stuff happens, right? So I think from that perspective, the regular season worked out at the 99th percentile of outcomes, the best possible outcome. And I think they can argue we made a lot of good moves to put that in place. And we hired a good coach who could put that in place and everything else. So our process, we've, we've, we've got these things, uh, solidified and now we can go forward

with a real direction. And I don't think that has to mean completely like be terrible and, and tear it all apart. But at the same time, like it's just the reality of the NFL that you have to reset at some point. And that should be in my mind, the exciting part for the ownership and for the fans and everything else, which should be like, this, this is gotta be a refresh here and go in a direction that we don't know yet because we know this direction. And even the best version of this direction still ends the same way. So what about a new one? And I think there's a lot of players too theelan's theelan's wife's i hate i hate bringing up just as much as you but that comment sort of told you like how people feel about this like well you know it was a fun ride that's been the vibe

like since the the end was like well from the players that that was it was a fun ride and we had a lot of fun this year we love each other and everything else but i think everybody knows like it's like graduating from high school or something like now i'm going off to community college and you're going to yale and we'll see y'all later that's kind of how it feels and i think that that's actually good for vikings fans to be like well something new could potentially happen here and if it doesn't that's where it's going to feel like how is this going to be different and the the conundrum there is, you know, speaking of not feeling different, the issue is, and it's not an issue, it's a good issue to have with Jefferson, but like, it's going to be hard to, let's ignore a tank.

Even if it's just, it happens, they're orange, yellow, whatever, they're going to be in purgatory, right? Like you need to figure out quarterback. And if you're going, even if you're going nine and eight and making the wild card, it's not a success. I mean, maybe I guess it is to some people. And then it just makes it harder

and harder and harder to get out of this quicker. Like, look, I mean, that was the Bears season fun. I mean, kind of because Justin Fields was awesome, but like they tanked. That was a full on tank.

You witnessed the tank this year. The Bears did not try to roster a competitive football team. It was not. I mean, turning on the game, I was I was paying more attention to red zone than my own team for probably the first was not, I mean, turning on the game, I was paying more attention to red zone than my own team for probably the first time ever,

unless Justin Fields was on red zone, you know, breaking off an 80-yard run or whatever he was doing. But like, it did suck, but they now are going to get back to reality so much faster that if they tried to keep Khalil Mack and keep Roquan Smith and just retool and repiece, like they're now, look, I mean,

they screw the picks or they waste the money in free agency, maybe it doesn't work out, Mac and keep Roquan Smith and just retool and repiece like they're now look I mean there's group of pigs where they waste the money in for agency maybe it doesn't work out but they've given themselves the fastest path to get back there it's just hard to stomach I get it's not fun to have those seasons but that's that's the fastest way back yeah I think that everyone should look at what Philadelphia did as because people will talk about about, and I, and I always like, I don't know where this comes from. Like, Oh, if we tank, it's going to be like 11 years before we're good again. Like, I mean, maybe in the nineties or something, but like not now. I mean,

the Detroit lions were a very good and exciting team one year separated from moving on from Matthew Stafford. Right. Like I, I mean, this is Miami has now, what three winning seasons in a row since they were tremendously bad and they for moving on from Matthew Stafford, right? Like, I mean, this is Miami has now, what, three winning seasons in a row since they were tremendously bad. And they have some of the worst ownership in the league that literally gets them fine draft picks for like hanging out with Tom Brady or something.

And yet there we are. And Philadelphia, they stacked up that top draft capital. They traded for AJ Brown. This is not an impossible route, but you have to you have to take that path at some point you can't keep going to the fork in the road and going straight or you just end up absolutely nowhere other than that no no it can be quick you mentioned Philadelphia losing the game against Washington in week 18 or 17 whatever it was and getting them

Devante Smith that one thing was the catalyst for the entire turnaround and everything else filtered out from that. Obviously, you know, taking Jalen hurt. So I do think if you keep Kirk, you probably do still. I mean,

I know obviously the Mond experience was, was not successful, but you explore that. You consider going that route again. But yeah, it doesn't, I agree with you people. I think they view tanking as like,

Oh, we're going to be bad for five years. No, the point is actually you're bad for less time. Like you're worse. You're really bad for one or two years as opposed to being mid for four or five years. And it's just hard to kind of balance what you want to do as a fan. I think you and I agree.

I'd rather just be awful one year if in theory I'm then good quicker after that. But it's also going to be pretty hard to convince Kevin O'Connell, hey, we're taking away all your good players. I know you just won 13 games and you believe it was your system and your culture and all these other things, but say goodbye to all your friends. There's so many layers to this and personalities and what people want out of different things.

I think it would be very hard for Kweisi to go into a meeting and be like, okay, Kevin, all those players, we're just getting rid of them, and we're going to try to get draft capital and cap space and coach them up, my brother. I mean, that would be very hard. The Rams, too. He's probably like, the team I was with, just all they do is just push money down the line and keep spending.

Why can't we do that also? And look at the Rams this year from last year. Do you not see yourself? I mean, that's, that's what it's going to be. Right. So anyway,

well, Brad, are you on call like the whole off season? Cause we're going to have a lot of things to deal with here. So I'll be here. I'll definitely jump in. Once we get, we get underway with,

with office free agency and the draft and all that good stuff. All right. Very good. So you do the forecast podcast. You took over Eric Eager's spot there, so people should listen to that. And also read your work at pff.com. You are the absolute best, man. Really appreciate the breakdown, and I guarantee we will do it again soon.

Thank you. We will.