Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Brad Spielberger thinks the Vikings will move on from Kirk Cousins

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

Matthew Coller talks with PFF's salary cap analyst Brad Spielberger about the Vikings quarterback situation and does a mock negotiation between Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Brad also breaks down Cousins' dead cap situation if he stays or goes and predicts Justin Jefferson's deal gets done Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and rejoining the show for the 127th time. Brad Spielberger, salary cap analyst, research and development at Pro Football Focus. And I hope you've been researching quarterback contracts, Brad, because we are going to dive right in no intro know how you're doing i need to know right off the bat what you think the vikings are doing with kirk cousins and then we can talk about anything else but i need to hear your opinion i don't even want to waste any time go yeah oh he uh is at the top of our free agent list it's obviously rare to get a free agent quarterback especially a guy that is is a clear-cut starter, top 15,

whatever number you want to put on it, quarterback. You've got some Phillip Rivers from a couple years ago. Drew Brees technically became free agent at times at the end of his career. It was obvious he was going back to New Orleans. I think they can explore it. Look, people, it's not going to be a fully guaranteed deal. I think

that ship has sailed. I get he has all the leverage and all those things. If he has a bunch of suitors, maybe Atlanta, Las Vegas, New England, whatever, jump into the mix, maybe. But realistically, they don't even know if this guy can play in week one of 2024. I'm going to make the guess for Minnesota. I think they're going to finally move on.

Thank Kirk for his time. He's become a fan favorite. Him and his son shirtless. Banging the drum was laugh out loud. Funny. Uh, but it's just, you've been provided a clean exit. I think you got to take it. All right.

Let me read to you what Kweisi Adafo-Mensis said about this yesterday. And then you can get to play reporter and read between the lines, which is usually my job. He said, it is certainly my intention to have him back here. However, then followed up with, there are a lot of factors that go into these things. It's age, it's injury, but it's also performance. How do you believe the performance will go? And there's different examples through time. Obviously, you have to also pay attention to the person, what he puts into his body and how regimented and detailed he is. All those factors go into it. But at the end of the day, we are just taking risks and we try to measure it the best we

can. How do you read into that comment from the Vikings general manager? Yeah, look, I remember last offseason, he was very hellbent, not hellbent. He was very determined to get Dalvin Tomlinson signed to an extension before his void date. I actually asked him about it personally at the Combine. And he was like, yeah, we definitely want to get that done. We're very motivated and interested to get that done. Delvin Tomlinson, last time I checked, is a member of the Cleveland Browns.

So, you know, again, I'm not saying he's lying or anything. I think they are going to try. The relationship is in a better spot. I think Kirk has been happy with maybe kind of how things have gone in the post Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer era. And I think it's going to be amicable and friendly. I just think, like I said, you now are going to give Justin Jefferson perhaps the biggest non-quarterback contract in the entire NFL. There are just other things you have to take care of. I just think you have to, at a certain point, appreciate this is now a window where we need to be cheap at quarterback and spend elsewhere

and see if we can make that work. So, yeah, the door is open. That's what we're talking about. If Kirk is willing to take a deal that looks nothing like the deals he has signed basically since his first franchise tag to now, then I think it is possible. Say, hey, it's a bridge deal. Let's say two years 50, but, you know, it's really like half of that is guaranteed, not the entire thing. Then, you know, yeah, maybe that does happen if he wants two years, 60, every single penny of that fully guaranteed.

I think Minnesota would be kind of crazy to do that. All right, let's well, OK, I want to do a mock negotiation where I'm going to be Kirk and you be the Vikings. And we'll do that in just a second. But I need you to explain to everyone, including me, how the salary cap thing works here. Because my understanding is if he hits free agency, the $28 million dead cap kicks in, which means that that is a deadline for them to get a deal done because you wouldn't let the dead cap hit and then get a deal done because you wouldn't let the dead cap hit and then get a deal done, which is also weird from Kirk's side because he has to agree to it before going out on the open market. I'm sure some whispers will happen at the combine though,

and he'll have a good sense for that. But if they were to extend him, this is where it's a little more muddy. How would that work with that $28 million dead cap hit? Yeah. So if you get an extension done before the void date, then you can keep these dead cap hits spread out. So as of right now, it's 10 and a quarter million in 2024 and 2025, and then 4 million a piece in 26 and 27. In theory, let's say they sign them to a two-year deal that covers 24 and 25 they would keep the void years on probably had another one in 2028 be able to use full proration but they could keep those current numbers there and obviously add to it with more prorated dollars if they don't and that void date hits that a full 28 and a half million accelerates up it is a cap hit on the 2024 books now look the

rams the the eagles have had players on the roster with a dead cap hit from an old contract and a current cap hit because they couldn't get a deal done, but they still ultimately did retain the player. I think it helps Minnesota here because you basically have exclusive negotiating rights right now. You know, you can't, I mean, it's tampering. You can't talk to other teams, but you can magically find out what other teams are thinking and, and magically hear things and have conversations that are not happening.

Because look, it is a market where I do think those teams I mentioned probably will have some level of interest depending on the price. But yeah, so that's how it works. And I will say this, it's obviously you never want this massive dead cap number where you're paying a guy 28 and a half mil to not be there. And to not be there or to be there with an extra cap as well. If it does happen, though, they could structure it where, all right, his cap hit is $35 million because there's $28.5 million from the dead.

And let's say you keep that first year super low. Give him a $25 million signing bonus split over five years and then give him a $2 million salary. He's making $27 million in cash, but the cap hit only give him a $2 million salary. He's making 27 in cash, but the cap hit only goes up by a small amount. They could do that. Right. Yeah. There are ways to work around it. Although I am envisioning them still having a $30 million cap hit for Cousins, just the way they've had it before, where he's always had a top of the league salary cap hit and then adding 10 more dead on to that does not seem very favorable. So Cousins, I think, already has a good sense for how this is going to go when he said that the structure is going to matter quite a bit.

I also thought it was interesting with Cousins and you know how there's this idea that ai can be come self-aware i think maybe cousins became self-aware when he was talking about the structure and winning and it was like wait a minute did he figure it out like has he been following your tweets and so now he gets it uh that the structure is going to matter because you probably will have a very tough time building out the rest of the roster if he's taking up 40 million dollars in cap space or more so they would have to figure something out and let's let's try to do that now last year we worked through a contract extension mock with justin jefferson they didn't listen to us they didn't get it done i guess they'll have to try again uh this summer or spring let's let's do Kirk Cousins. So I am Kirk. You are the Minnesota Vikings.

Sell me on returning, but also with your price. How's it going, Kirk? How's that Achilles feeling? Oh, it's feeling great, man. I am ready to be in the pocket and not move just like I didn't before. So look, you know we love you. We had you come back and lead the skull chant in the stadium. You know, we want you to be a part of this team forever. That's right. There are not forever for the rest of your career.

We think we can win here. We love how the offense operates with you, Kevin O'Connell. We got you, Jordan Addison. We got you, TJ Hawkinson. On that note, we made TJ Hawkinson the second highest paid tight end in football. We're about to make Justin Jefferson second highest paid tight end of football we're about to make justin jefferson the highest paid wide receiver in football we want you back and we respect that you know your value you know your worth but this is now the time the end of your

career where we think you should prioritize chasing a ring still we're going to pay you good money but it is we'll even we'll admit it might be less than what you could get on the open market elsewhere but it's a stable situation your kids can go to middle school and in egan they can do whatever whatever you want to do but we are going to offer you less we're going to start with a two year 50 million dollar offer with half of that 25 million guaranteed what do you think first of all uh i'm very offended that you don't know my kids' ages. They're not going to be in junior high yet. So that's a bad foot to start off the negotiation. No, I'm just kidding. But here's the way I look at it,

is there are 12 quarterbacks who are making $40 million or more, including a gentleman by the name of Daniel Jones. And while he did beat our defense, not our offense in a playoff game, I think that anything short of being in the same range, higher than Derek Carr, who I am clearly better than, or in the same ballpark, maybe $1 at least higher than Daniel Jones is personally offensive to me. And, you know, look, like you said, there's no tampering in the National Football League and my agent would never. But people have told me friends of mine have texted or tweeted that there's going to be other interest here. And you're asking me to not go find

out what that is for. What did you say? Twenty five million guaranteed uh let me look at my friend Matthew Stafford he's an older quarterback uh we were comparable throughout our careers looks like he got 63 million dollars guaranteed in uh his most recent contract extension so I'm having trouble figuring out why you can't get me to the Daniel Jones mark or the Matthew Stafford. Again, an older quarterback. Should I show you Matthew Stafford's injury history, buddy? I got a whole printout. It's a big stack. That man has been hurt as hell, including even this year.

I have one little tweak of the Achilles, and we're dropping me to 25 mil. I think that that is pretty far below my price. What can we do here? Look, Daniel Jones, we'll tell you right now, we think you are a better quarterback than Daniel Jones. He is a decade younger than you, and I think the Giants would tell you they wish they hadn't signed that contract either. So let's kind of take that one out of the way.

Older quarterback like a Matthew Stafford, a guy you've battled with plenty from back when he was a Lion, we hear you. Does he have some injury history? Yes. Did he ever tear his Achilles in the middle of a season going into a free agency period? No, he's never been a free agent. So that has never happened. He's never had that level of injury.

We would tell you this. Here's how we'll pitch it. The amount of money you could make in marketing and sponsorships and other elements from the local market in Minnesota, but also the national market that appreciates your connection to this city. Who put the chains on you on the airplane? Your teammates in Minnesota. Who had you banging the skull drum here in Minnesota? You're marketable.

People like you. Quarterback the show on Netflix was great, but the opportunity to maximize your off-field earnings, to maybe pivot into a career post-football in a broadcast booth or whatever you want to do is going to be elevated by riding it out and having a fan base in a city that lives and breathes with you, that dies with you. And that is going to take a little bit less money. But hey, your friend Matthew Stafford, you mentioned him. He could have signed a much bigger contract with the Rams. He won a Super Bowl, had all the leverage in the world,

and signed a contract well below market value. I hear you. It's more than we're offering you. But he actually took concessions. You should actually lean to him and maybe talk to him about it if you want to and ask him why he did that, why he prioritized that. Newsflash, he's back in the playoffs again. You know, $160 million for Matthew Stafford doesn't seem like a lot of concessions.

That seems like the type of money I would like to have that you're not offering. And all those things that you bring up, I am a quarterback in the National Football League. I'll find myself to a Piggly Wiggly sponsorship in the South. Is that what they have in the South? Yeah, okay. So I'll figure it out when I'm down there in Atlanta. That I think is the difficult thing here is what you're talking about. I understand your point of view and what you're saying is if that I don't take a little bit less on the salary cap, it's

going to be very hard to keep some people into the future and to improve our defense, which was in the middle of the league this year overall. But you saw the weaknesses at the end. Didn't look like a championship defense on the whole. And we're probably going to lose Daniil Hunter if you keep me. So there goes 16 sacks out the door. DJ Wanam might not be able to stay or has the injury too. There's another eight sacks out the door.

What would be the plan? If you're going to ask me, I better come away with a ring here. If I'm going to be disrespected versus my talent on what it says on paper for my contract, I better come away with something that I can put on my finger and quiet the whole narrative that I can't be a winner. Explain to me how you're going to do that. Yeah. So look, first of all, we bump it up a little bit.

I hear all your points. They're good points. We can get into the two-year 60, maybe two-year 70 even range. The big sticking point for us, though, is the fully guaranteed structure of years past is a sticking point for us. It's tough. We want to help you undergo your rehab process, see that through with you. We're confident you can get back from it,

but we need to protect ourselves as well. You're right. If we're going to ask you to do that, then we have to, in turn, add a bunch of talent, add a bunch of players. You saw it in Tampa Bay with Tom Brady. You saw it with the Rams in the first run with Matthew Stafford. Obviously, right now, they have the cheapest roster in the entire NFL, and

they still made the playoffs, but that's a different conversation. We will then make a concerted effort to bring back Daniel Hunter to be the leader of this defense, an elite player. If you want to put one specific thing into it, you help us save $10, $15 million in cash and a chunk on the cap. We will make sure we get a Daniel Hunter deal done. All right. Okay.

That's one player who's been on the defense for the last four years of us having a bad defense and costing me a playoff win because everyone remembers fourth and eight. I played good in that game. I was right there and we needed to stop it. Daniel Jones converted a fourth down. Couldn't stop him. Thanks, Eddie Donatel for ruining my chances at another playoff when I'm having trouble being sold here on the idea of two years and 70 million if it's not fully guaranteed or at least very close to that. But you know what? Maybe I'll creep closer to the line if we include a couple of things that I really want. And it's not sponsorships from target. It's actually, you're not drafting a first round quarterback. All right. I am not that guy. And look, let's keep this in the room here. Don't let this out that I said this because I, I want people to think that I would train a backup quarterback, but I wouldn't. And I don't want to, I want to be the guy I want to retire a Viking. And what I don't want is to play one more year here. And then you draft Michael Pennix and trade my ass away because I know you guys have talked

about it. I've seen the internet. So I want that no trade clause and I want it full, no trade clause, not, I wouldn't go to Jacksonville or something, or I guess that's a bad example. I wouldn't go to wherever. Uh, but, uh, I want, I want the no trade clause. I'll take your dollars. I'll take your plan, but no first rounder, no trade clause. All right. We can agree to not take a quarterback in the first round and use that top pick to get you. Here you go. Maybe the best edge rusher in the class, maybe a Jerson Newton out of Illinois to significantly improve the interior of that defensive line that obviously needs a lot of help. Maybe one of the better corners in the class, maybe a Jersan Newton out of Illinois to significantly improve the interior of that defensive line that obviously needs a lot of help, maybe one of the better corners in the class. There's a lot of good players there as well.

So we will use that first-round pick on the side of the ball that's going to help you have a balanced approach in the playoffs and win some more games. We're not promising anything outside of the first round. It's always good to have developmental prospects. Tom Brady had Jimmy Garoppolo join his roster when he was in the middle of his prime. What ended up happening is they actually traded him. They got Trent Brown

from the Niners. It all worked out and benefited them. Trust us to build a roster around you, but we'll hear you. We'll use that top 15 pick this year on a non- quarterback, and we'll give you a full no-trade clause. If you want to retire on your own terms, or if you want to not go somewhere, that is entirely up to you. there might be a young guy coming in that you can choose to train however

much you want but we need to prepare ourselves look at our division jordan love finished the season on an incredible run green bay drafted him and for the first round pick when aaron rogers was winning nfc norse was making nfc championship, and they did that to him, and he's one of the greatest to ever do it. We love you, too, but we are going to keep our options open. But for this year alone, we'll agree to that. Folks, if you've been listening to the show, then you know how much fun we have been having with PrizePix this year. Just go to prizepix.com slash purple.

Use the code purple for a first deposit match up to $100. And let me tell you how it works. If you haven't heard us talk about it enough yet, or you haven't tried it yet, very simple. There are yardage totals on Prize Picks. You either pick more or less and boom. Each week has been a roller coaster ride of fun and the best part is that when i have a bad week i didn't lose much it doesn't cost much to play you can turn 10 bucks into 250 very easily and if things go sideways for you you're not out a whole heck of a lot of money but normally i do much better than this so that is prizepix.com slash purple just more or less on yardage totals and you are in prizepix.com slash purple the code purple for a first deposit

match up to 100 okay that's fair enough for this year because this is only a two-year deal wait my phone is ringing hold on let. Let me just pick it up. It sounds like, wait, is that you, Arthur Blank? Oh, owner of the Atlanta, oh my gosh, he sounds upset. Hold on, I've got to take this. Okay, Arthur, yeah, yeah, yeah. You've been losing? You miss Matt Ryan?

I kind of look like Matt Ryan if you squint. Oh, that's interesting. Sounds like you've got a lot of guaranteed cash for me. I don't know, man. Your offer sounds okay. Seems like we've really negotiated. We've come much closer to a spot here. But the thing I'm really struggling with is Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, good offensive line, and a desperate owner who wants to give me a huge amount of cash. It's a tough sell. It's a tough sell to not at least listen to Mr. Blank. First, I'm going to go ahead. And if you just so you know, you're on camera, that's going to be

submitted to the league office for a tampering grievance, just so you're aware. So thank you for doing that in front of us. But I'll tell you this. The grass is always greener. Look at Russell Wilson in the same situation probably felt undervalued underappreciated in seattle thought he was being held back not he goes to denver look he gets a big old bag of cash he may signs one of the biggest contracts the entire nfl and two years later denver is benching him is tarnishing his legacy he may not be a first ballot hall of famer anymore everyone will think about him in a different light. It'll probably hurt him off the field as well.

You don't have to do any of that. You can ride it out with one team. We'll still pay you a good sum of money. But look historically at all the great quarterbacks. They took less. Tom Brady took less. Drew Brees took less. All these guys took less in a pursuit of actually winning meaningful playoff games.

I know that's your ultimate goal i hear you if you want to go the russell wilson route go ahead if you want to go the tom brady route let us know so let me uh pull out of character here and just say that i think this is a very realistic look at how this will go between uh the vikings and kirk cousins so let's say it just went that way. Do you think they end up keeping Cousins at that point or not? I honestly think there is going to be a strong enough market that it depends if Kirk, like we kind of just mock this, but if he cares about money, I think he's elsewhere.

If he really does, which, hey, credit to him, do whatever you want. I will never judge a player for doing that. I know he's made like a quarter of a billion dollars already but if that's what he wants to do who am i to say no um i think another team will offer him more um and and but if he does truly care about hey again you're not going to pay him you know five million bucks but i'll take a slight discount in this city with this team they will give me some sort of assurances like you just mentioned. The first round pick this year is probably fair.

Like they just beyond that, it's not going to happen. But like, say, hey, like for one year alone in the first round, help some other unit on this team and then do whatever you want. They wouldn't put that in the contract, but like, so that's the thing. Like I could see both avenues. I do, though, if it gets into a bidding Like I could see both avenues. I do though, if it gets into a bidding war, I don't think Minnesota wins that bidding war. Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, there are desperate, extremely desperate teams for quarterbacks and the Raiders are never shy, uh, put it that way about spending some money.

They are paying how much for coaches not to coach there. I think that they will spend and Arthur blank too. The fact that he fired Arthur Smith, it really shows you that that man is not going to sit there and let his team miss the playoffs to the Tampa Bay Bucs over and over again. He wants to win. And I think that there's a good chance that Atlanta even would have if they had put Kirk out there last year for a trade.

They would have been first in line if they had put Kirk out there last year for a trade, they would have been first in line because they had to have known like Desmond Ritter is not going to be the answer. We just have got nothing else and announced that we're not going after Lamar Jackson for some reason. It would have been better to just say nothing. I guess maybe that's a lesson for a lot of people, but you know, it's not just that even Even Pittsburgh Steelers, they're in the same spot. Would the Steelers be saying, if we had a quarterback this year, imagine how good we would have been. Look at these receivers.

They're not wrong either. Sorry. No, they're not. No, they're not. They would have been like a 12-win team with Kirk Cousins because they are actually ready to do this. The biggest thing that I wonder about with Kirk, I think they could get to the money.

And I think that the Vikings have always believed in themselves way too much when it comes to their salary cap people and their ability to just move money around and sign Delvin Tomlinson to be the final piece of the puzzle or something that they've, they've always thought way too much of themselves there. But, you know, I think that there are other teams that have a stronger roster and a better team. And even if you like the coach, and even if you like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, you have to, if you're Kirk Cousins, look and say, this needs a lot of work still. We got, I mean, if Harrison Smith retires, but even then, like he's not the same impact player that he used to be.

Who is stepping in here and making this a championship-level team? And by the way, Kevin O'Connell understands the run game like I understand Greek. They have not run the ball at all in the last couple of years. They've made life very difficult on Kirk. It's been like, you are everything in this offense and uh it's all on your shoulders so there's there hasn't been a ton of help from the defense or the running game and I just have a tough time thinking there's not somebody else who could pitch more money in a better roster that could win and he's got to be thinking mortality at

this point after this injury he has to be thinking I at this point. After this injury, he has to be thinking, I might have a year. I might have two years. Atlanta and Pittsburgh both, I mean, immediately jump out. Like Raiders, I agree. There's cash components. Does Devontae Adams want to stick around in a certain scenario? Maybe not. But those two you mentioned, Arthur Blank is desperate to win right now.

And that is a good defense. It sounds like Bill Belichick might be going there. Who knows? I think we're getting a scenario where they try to get the new coach to keep Ryan Nielsen on board, who I think is a very good defensive coordinator. They have talent there. They have resources, the eighth overall pick. Again, if it's Kirk, I guess in our hypothetical, he'd ask them to use it on Romo Dunzey or something instead of, or a tackle for the future or whatever instead. But that is tackle for the future or whatever instead. But that is an attractive situation.

And Pittsburgh too. Yeah, I mean, the Tomlin thing is interesting. I don't know if you've seen the reports that maybe he's going to step away after this year, but let's ignore that for now. George Pickens on a rookie deal, a legit number one receiver, or at least it looked like at the second half of the year. Deontay Johnson's awesome. Only one year left in his deal, but nevertheless, Pat Fryman with a rookie contract.

Najee Harris and Jalen Warren, rookie contract, the offensive line is getting better, has some young talent. And of course the defense needs help, but they're always going to be a top 10, 15 unit pretty much every year if Mike Tomlin is there. So those two in particular really jump out. If they're interested, it should be more attractive. Look, the Vikings offensive situation is awesome. There's no debating that. But the defense is not. As incredible as Flores was, people are going to sit down, watch the film, and adjust to what he did.

He might counter to their counter, but he's not going to surprise people with blitzing 60% of the time and running drop eight 30% of the time. It was awesome. It was the coolest thing ever. It's not going to work again for a whole year. So, yeah, those are attractive spots. Yeah. On the defensive side, it always comes down to the people that you have, the players that you have. And one of the things that I have trouble finding is any comparison to where the Vikings are right now that actually worked. And somebody

yesterday on Twitter brought up to me the Rams and adding Matthew Stafford. And to me, that's Atlanta. That's Pittsburgh. That's not here because the Rams had this fella who is considered the greatest defensive player of an entire generation who let's not forget as Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl, who closed out the game twice, once in the NFC Championship and once in the Super Bowl. His name is Aaron Donald. They also were able to acquire Jalen Ramsey. They also gave away their entire future. And look, they've landed Puka Nakua. They're a really good team. They're probably not a championship caliber team. It's nice that they made the playoffs. Do you know how many wildcard teams have won the

Superbowl in my lifetime? It's like three or four and all of them outside of the 2000 Ravens had Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger. Like they didn't have just an okay quarterback. So the Rams are a nice story and they'll probably beat the Detroit lions and then there'll be a great story and they still won't really be a championship contender even despite how great Stafford has been and how great Nakula has been they don't have a complete team that can compete with the best more likely than not now that I say that they'll win the Super Bowl and whatever but I don't know that that's if that's like the one example the shining example of where this has worked. It's like, show me the other ones though, outside of the outlier.

That's sort of like everyone loves quarterbacks who run around all the time now because Mahomes. Or maybe you shouldn't shoot threes from the logo because really only that's a Steph Curry thing. Kind of the same way. Oh yeah, they said bleep them picks.

In my mind, the Vikings have to say bleep them picks. So is that what, in my mind, the Vikings have to say bleep them picks if they bring back Kirk Cousins. They have to trade draft picks for players. I don't even know if you have time to use the 11th overall pick. Like you should trade it for a player if there's a player available.

This should be an absolute full-on, all laser set to the Super Bowl, championship, all or nothing, boom or bust, it works or we're all fired mentality. Because if they try to split the difference, I just have no confidence whatsoever that they could go somewhere. So are they going to be willing to do that? Is Kweisi Adafomenta, who once said you never go full Rams, going to be willing to go full Rams to make this work.

Because if you bring him back and you don't appear in championship weekend, then you have completely failed and you deserve to be fired. That's a great quote. I love that he has said that on a record. Yeah, I agree. To an extent, you do. I know competitive rebuild and all those things, and I do think they kind of sort of did that this year.

But if you're going to do it again, when you have a clean out, well, when you have an early pick, you can maybe take the third quarterback off the board. Potentially that's a different conversation, but I, you know,

I, I chuckle at these, these mocks with like Jane Daniels, third and Michael Penix going in the top 10 at all. I would bet against that folks. But, but anyway, like,

yeah, you would, you and you're you're you're not close enough right we're talking more if you want to give me give examples like phil rivers to the colts like that's what this team is they are make the playoffs have a competitive game against the bills in the first round to lose that that's that's the the better comp is that which hey if that's a successful season kumbaya but i I don't know if I would do it that way. I mean, that's exactly how I would project it.

And here's the other thing too. When you come off a year where everything went wrong, I mean, do you not think that could have happened again with an injury for him or even not, even if he wasn't injured, they're probably a nine win team because they fumbled away at the beginning of the season. And because they lost just to Jefferson and TJ Hawkinson at the end of the

year, it might take, uh, you know, some time even for Hawkinson to return next year with an ACL and an MCL that he's coming off of. And it also took the defense weeks to adapt to what Brian Flores was doing. There's going to be a lot of new bodies on the defense, which can work if you stack it up with amazing players. But it's not like there's pipeline guys who, hey, just wait until Louis Scene gets in there, and then you're really going to see. That's just not happening at this point. So they really don't have this group that's about to take this huge step forward.

They have no shutdown corner. They have no defensive line whatsoever. None. Zero defensive linemen. I mean, Harrison Phillips is a rotational player who was asked to play like 900 snaps. And credit to him. I mean, huge heart on that guy. But that should have never happened.

And you got to replace four defensive linemen. That seems like a lot to me, especially when I look at San Francisco and I go, I think they have nine defensive linemen actually. So I'm not sure how you match up with that. Jordan Hicks is a free agent. That's another 900 snaps out the door. It's not just, oh, well, kind of rebuild the defense. It's like, no, it's bleeding.

It's catastrophic over there. And now you're supposed to tell me that you bring him back. You rank seventh in offense. They have never had a top five offense with Kirk Cousins. Never in his career has he ever had a top five offense. So it's a pretty hard sell to say that he suddenly will at age 36. It just doesn't add up. So let me circle back then on what you said about Michael Penix.

I think the class has dudes. It has prospects. But it's really hard to get the prospects of this draft. Where do you see the price tag being if the Vikings, as they were reported to do by Ben Gessling locally, and then another guy said it nationally, but then it got picked up by people. And anyway, so they thought that guy had it. It doesn't matter.

But the point is, they tried last year to trade up. We all knew that. And this these guys at the top are very good. The price, though, the teams at the top, though. How do you weigh all that? Yeah. So for me, I think the trades I would be looking at is you're moving from, well, they're 11, right? I said that earlier, Minnesota. You're looking at four and five, which is Arizona and Los Angeles. I think Arizona has made it clear they're not going

quarterback. I know I make the joke about the Josh Rosen is our guy graphic whenever I get a chance, one of the all-time graphics. But I think they're not being facetious here. It's real. And obviously, the Chargers are not going to trade Justin Herbert or do anything like that. So 11-4-5, it looks like 12-3 for Trey Lance. It could be that level trade. It could be cheaper.

You could be talking 12-7, which was the Josh Allen trade. That one cost two seconds and some change. 12-3, obviously, was two future first-round picks and a third-round pick to go get Trey Lance. But yeah, at 4-5, I just don't see it. Maybe New England takes Jaden Daniels third. I just don't know if I see it. And I like Jaden Daniels a lot.

We fall in love with the quarterbacks thing every single year. I'm not even sure Michael Pennington can be a first-round pick, frankly. But I think, yeah, it'll be extremely, extremely pricey, but I do think at the same time you're not going to be sitting there at 11. I think Atlanta at 8 could take Jaden Daniels potentially. That would make a whole lot of sense. I think you would have to trade

up to a degree to jump a certain team, or maybe a team behind you wants to jump up a little bit and go get him. But yeah, it's not cheap. And like you said, the last piece, the offensive structure is good, yes, but a couple things. Only Addison will be on a rookie deal after this offseason. Justin Jefferson is going to cost $30-plus million.

That is a fact. Hawkinson, like you said, health is a question mark. Already one of the most expensive players there. It's a fill-out. The guard spot for Rizner back. We don't know, but the defense is nowhere close. And like those bucks teams,

Tom Brady comes in and has a top five defense waiting for him. Like that's not there. It's not there. I mean, close to that. So yeah, anyway, expensive trade.

I think they could do it though. I do think Jane Daniels is probably going to be available to them if they, if they want to do it. So this could swing on. Cause I don't know. now the Patriots become totally unpredictable with Bill Belichick out. This could swing on a team you are quite familiar with at the top, the Chicago Bears. And I never thought that you and I on January 11th would be having a discussion about whether

they should keep Justin Fields. I had a long conversation with a friend of mine, Marcus Whitman, who's that franchise guy on YouTube about the arguments for moving on and for keeping Justin Fields. And I think that there is a strong enough argument for them keeping Fields to wonder if they will. Is it the right thing i'm not convinced of that um but there is at least a discussion of if you aren't totally in on caleb williams and you think maybe he's overrated or something and you're not totally sold on drake may or jaylen daniel jay din daniels keep doing that uh then it's it's not just it's it's not just like Justin Fields it's

Justin Fields and everyone else you could ever have right versus one guy probably or two guys Caleb Williams or Drake May and you could be the team that the veteran quarterback leaves and drops into and takes you to the Super Bowl like Matthew Stafford you could actually make a real argument for that team because you have all the draft capital and everything else. And if you add Marvin Harrison to this thing, along with an absolute monster beast in DJ Moore, who I have a ton of respect for having seen play in person a couple of times now, what do you think they're going to do here? Fields made it much more difficult than I think we ever thought he was going to by the end of the year. I guess, but you also covered two games and he got hurt in the first one because he didn't identify a blitz and they didn't score a touchdown in the second one because he can't.

I should stop talking in media circles. I'm probably undermining the Bears leverage. I think it's all a smokescreen. I think it's the easiest decision of all time. Frankly, I get it's all a smokescreen. I think it's the easiest decision of all time, frankly. I get it. I do. It'd be awesome to have Marvin Harrison Jr. plus a tackle of your choosing,

plus a million other picks in the future. I totally get that. So I shouldn't say it's the easiest decision ever. But we're talking about the Atlanta Falcons. They had three straight top ten pick weapons, and it did not matter because they didn't have a quarterback. So I love Justin Fields. Always have. Always will. weapons and it did not matter uh because they didn't have a quarterback so um i just i love justin fields always have always will i hope he goes off somewhere and has a ryan tannehill career arc better oh ideally hopefully um i just think they'd be insane uh to pass on one i just i just

don't know how you justify it so look they fired the offensive coaching staff maybe that's their answer and say yeah no we just think that was the problem. Not Justin. I didn't see enough personally. But, hey, I mean, I'm not going to be mad if they don't. You know what? They saw stuff in practice that I didn't see. They trust the process. We'll let it ride. They do need to get better on the offensive line.

They did have basically one receiver and DJ Moore and nothing else this year. Mooney really kind of struggled this season. So I can see the narrative or the argument, but I'd be shocked if they don't take a quarterback at one. I don't know which see the narrative or the argument, but I'd be shocked if they don't take a quarterback at one. I don't know which of the two it'll be,

but I think that's the way it happens. You just did the don't let the newspaper write that I was mad meme right there. If they bring back Justin Fields,

don't let the newspaper write that I was mad. So I think that if you are there and you're in that building, it is more difficult than sitting in our seats. Now, overall, I agree with you that it would be a better idea to just draft Caleb Williams,

continue to have this insane amount of cap space and continue to trade for players like Montez sweat and watch people complain that you gave up a second round pick, uh, and then have Montez sweatat be incredible. That seems like that worked out okay. But don't trade for Chase Claypool again. That doesn't work out for anybody, including the Miami Dolphins even getting him. So I think that they will go with Caleb Williams or Drake May at the top of the draft and try to make that guy their franchise quarterback

because the ceiling on Justin Fields is where you're at right now. You know what he is. And there is no argument left to me that you could say, oh, well, if he just does this, if he just has that, if he just has this wide receiver, he had a lot to work with and it was inconsistent. There were times where he looked marvelous. And there were times, like you against the vikings where it was a struggle and i just don't think he sees very well i just don't think he sees coverages identifies has the quick whatever it is the thing that the s2 test was supposed to say about cj stroud should have said about justin fields because it's actually true about him with identifying stuff and then you have to pay him which is is a huge problem. And even if he was good, there would still be a case to move on there. But that does impact the Vikings because if they take

Marvin Harrison and the Vikings are in a position at that point to trade up, then you're talking about more of an available spot, even if other teams do take quarterbacks. Last thing I want to ask you, Brad, is just about Justin Jefferson and that contract. We all know it is going to cost a lot of money. We did a mock negotiation. I was Justin and I put on my Oakleys and demanded a three-year contract. And I think we settled on a four-year contract. Do you think that this will be at all problematic or dramatic? Or do you think that the Vikings get this done with more ease than we think? I do. I do.

We talked about it last off season. You know, I think I went a little bit against the grain. I'm not trying to pat myself on the back, but, but I am. It's very common for the non quarterbacks to have to wait the full four years.

That's just, it just is how it goes. You saw Nick Bosa. It's not the Niners had any question of whether they were going to make Nick Bosa, the highest paid defensive player in NFL history or not. They knew that was coming. And we also, to be fair, his value didn't go down.

But when Justin Jefferson misses half the season, it does. It puts a seed in the back of your mind of like nothing's guaranteed in life. They're offering me money that will impact my great, great, great, great, great, great grandchild. Like, yeah, I probably could get a little bit more. Like I'm probably worth a little bit more, but I might as well just take this number. So I don't think it's going to be a very difficult negotiation. I do think they're going to ask for three instead of four. And they have a leg to stand on. I mean, a lot of the recent receiver deals have been those three-year extensions. So that I think is where the biggest sticking point from a valuation standpoint, though, they'll probably going to try and get in the Nick Bosa numbers and the 34 type million dollars to say, hey, highest paid

non-quarterback. But I think it'll fall above 30, but below Nick Bosa ultimately is where I would, if I had to guess. But no, I don't, it's going to get done. I'm not too concerned about it. I think it would have been almost a surprise if he got done last offseason. And it's funny, too. You already see Jamar Chase talking about getting his money this offseason. Brother, you're not getting paid this offseason. Unless you want to take a massive discount from Cincinnati, I don't see it happening. So anyway, it's going to get done, I believe. Yeah, really last year just spoke to how amazing he is, that it would even be a conversation.

Because I, outside of quarterbacks, don't remember very many examples, if any, of non-quarterbacks even having that conversation. And a lot of times with quarterbacks, even if they've proven to be good, they still take it to that point anyway. So it is a very rare situation. You're also asking owners you're saying hey could you just take all the guaranteed money and and take it out of your wallet right now or you could take it out of your wallet next year i think most owners are like

actually i could put this into an oil rig or whatever and you know uh what what are the the wills do you mercy you fly uh you fly an orca across the country to put it in the ocean you know you got a lot of different options yes or you buy like dave gilmore's guitar so you can play it or whatever i guess uh it's it's a real estate for the wilfs that they could just build another apartment complex and wait till next year so you can understand why that didn't happen but i also think that there will be some tension here. If you're Jefferson, there's just no option. The NFL set it out this way. Justin Jefferson didn't write the CBA. Unfortunately, it's not written for him to get exactly what he's worth. But if I'm Justin Jefferson, I'm pulling up this league leaders in yardage and showing the Vikings and

reminding them he finished 19th in yards and missed seven games. And another game he had to leave in the second quarter, and he finished 19th in yards. Like, this man is insane. He looked every bit Justin Jefferson those last couple games of the year. The Lions game was hilarious. I mean, yeah, there's no concern about that whatsoever. Also, last piece, like if they demand four,

I think it might get into Nick Bosa range. If it gets to three, 32.5, 33, whatever, three years, 100 would be such a flex. It'd be pretty badass. But anyway, it'll get done. Remember, the only person who can throw him the ball is Kirk Cousins. No one else.

Just Kirk Cousins. You have to have a very expensive person throwing Justin Jefferson the ball. He's the only person who can do it. Last thing before you go, who do you think is winning the Super Bowl? Give me... This is going to be a shocker. I'll stick with it. It's going to be an egg in my face, but

I've been embarrassed enough in the public sphere. Give me the Dallas Cowboys. They're going to figure it out. I think avoiding the Niners might be the biggest part part which is such a cowardly response to who wins Super Bowl someone else beats the Niners and they get an easier path I just I they were my pick coming into the year was Denver Cincinnati I guess I had Cincinnati winning but um I think the top two teams in both conferences are the two best like they're the seeds are correct in my opinion um and I think Baltimore and San Fran are the best teams in the NFL.

But, you know, playoff time, something wacky happens. Give me the Dallas Cowboys over the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl. I think that if the Buffalo Bills were ever going to win a Super Bowl, it would have to be in a year where they were completely left for dead and there was the strangest controversy of all time in the middle of the season. And then they played all their playoff games in horrific weather. And Josh Allen's giant hands through the ball, through the ice and cold for the Bills to work their way to the Super Bowl.

I think Baltimore is probably a stronger team, but I watched this Buffalo team thinking no one wants to play them down the stretch here. So we'll see what happens. I don't think Dallas is an insane pick, but Mike McCarthy is going to have to manage his way through that. So we'll see if that can get done. Brad Spielberger, PFF Brad, you are the best man.

This was super fun, and we will definitely do it again as the offseason goes along. Thanks, dude. Thank you. We're just getting started. All right.