Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Doug Kyed talks about contract explosion and plays two truths and a lie with the NFL Draft

Episode Date: April 19, 2022

PFF's Doug Kyed joins to talk about big contracts being handed out to cornerbacks, edge rushers and wide receivers and what it says about how teams will approach the NFL Draft. Is the Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown drama giving us a window into what it will be like with Justin Jefferson next offseason? How will draft philosophy and free agency change in the future because of the huge deals players are pushing for? Plus the two truths and a lie game focuses on the truth about Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Kayvon Thibadeaux and Drake London. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here and joining me his second time on the show, Doug Kide from Pro Football Focus. Doug, what is going on, man? Busy times. It is busy times. The draft is coming right up here. Feels like it's been maybe a longer process than usual. I'm ready for the draft at this point. I'm not sure how you're feeling. Very much the same way. That has been a theme on the show which is why i created games week where every guest has to play a game so later in the show you're going to play two truths and a lie um but first i was curious if i'm interrupting you from potentially reporting on what's going on

with denzel ward who just signed a new contract i don't know how you feel about this doug but i feel like this offseason has been maybe the most, I don't know, like league shifting when it comes to these huge contracts. And it's always been a haves and have not type of league where there are players who get paid a lot. And then there are tons of players who don't get any money at all, but it just feels like the gap is growing and growing and growing. And that makes the draft picks even more valuable that teams, if they want to succeed, absolutely have to hit on these draft picks because there's only so much money you can give out to your whatever number of superstars. Yeah, absolutely. Especially if you,

obviously every team is trying to hit on those elite type players. Otherwise, yeah, you're going to wind up having to pay them $20 million a year. It seems like regardless of position almost at this point, the Denzel Ward contract is a little bit interesting because I was kind of waiting for that other shoe to finally drop at the cornerback position. It didn't happen with JC Jackson. He didn't exceed Jalen Ramsey's contract. It didn't happen with Carlton Davis. Now it's finally happening with Denzel Ward. We'll probably see Jair Alexander get a huge deal at some point in the near future. But yeah, someone has finally actually beat that Jalen Ramsey contract,

which felt like it was a couple of years coming there now. You know, and you wrote about Debo Samuel as well. And now it's been a common part of the conversation of, well, you know, should you draft more receivers and let these expensive receivers go because they're becoming quarterback contracts, but then defensive ends are kind of becoming that way. And now corners are kind of becoming that way. I guess I wonder if we're going to see drafts in the future where linebackers don't show

up to draft night. And obviously we've gotten to the point where running backs, you don't even have to think about going to Las Vegas for the draft because you ain't going to be picked in the first round. And it feels like the NFL has sort of gotten this figured out that there are three or four positions that really drive everything in the league. And if you don't have one of the greatest players in the game, then you should be drafting those positions and letting those players go and sign elsewhere. Because unless you're a Denzel Ward, the next level down is going to want similar money. And that's not a good idea to give the next level down similar money. Yeah, definitely. I think we'll eventually get to that point. I think where linebackers start

to be a little bit more devalued in the draft. Strong safety types will be even more devalued in the draft. You know, maybe interior offensive linemen. I think we've already obviously started to see a little bit of that, but you still see guards and centers wind up going in the first round of the draft. I'm not sure, you know, how much longer that's going to continue on for because teams are going to be smart. Progressive GMs are going to start seeing much longer that's going to continue on for, because teams are going to be smart. Progressive GMs are going to start seeing where the money's going and trying to draft as heavily at those positions as possible. Obviously, there's quite still quite a bit of value in landing an all pro guard or an all pro linebacker. But if the difference between signing,

you know, an all pro linebacker and free agency is half as much as a cornerback or a or a pass rusher then yeah monetarily it does make much more sense to try to draft those premium positions at least in the first round where you know it all kind of depends now though at this point how long you're actually getting them under that rookie contract because when you're seeing as you said a wide receiver like Devo Samuel or AJ Brown or some of these other wide receivers after three years of being a second round pick, they're already starting to look towards that next contract. Otherwise they might hold out or they might hold in. So yeah, you might only actually be getting three years of control on these players, but that still is much more valuable than having to pay the

market rate for them. Yeah. And I remember maybe it was last year or the year before that. Well, there wasn't a combine. So I mix up like when my combines happen, but an agent saying to me, the new thing down the road is going to be, I, as a player, if I'm not getting what I want, I'm just going to make enough noise until I have to get rid of me. And you mentioned the hold in. It's like that. That's what he called it, too. And it feels like this is a thing that becomes applicable at some point to Justin Jefferson with Debo Samuel taken one year before. Yeah, one year, 2019, one year. So it's like next year we could run into the same kind of thing with Justin Jefferson. And I feel like he just got here and he's nowhere even close to being able to rent a

card legally. And yet we might be one year away from him getting another hundred and whatever number of catches thousand something yards and saying, all right, it's time to give me that contract. And it's just a really interesting dynamic. That's why I'm saying that I feel like this off season has shifted things in a lot of ways to now players, even when they're nowhere near that next contract on rookie deals are still saying, all right, it's time to sign me up. Definitely. And it's,

it's interesting because a lot of these wide receivers or at least a few of them this year, you know, Devo Samuel, maybe AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, they weren't first round pick. So I actually think that with the option of that fifth year option in the rookie contract for first round picks. So I actually think that with the option of that fifth year option in the rookie contract for first round picks, you might actually see less of that holding in for a first round pick than you might see it for elite players that you wind up taking in the second, third, fourth round, because those guys are so underpaid and they don't even have that fifth year option where they might make, you know, 15, 16, 17 million dollars on the horizon there.

They're looking down, you know, and saying, all right, I mean, I've only got one year left and I'm not making near market rates. So obviously you can't predict taking, you know, elite players in the first round for the second round, third round, whatever it is. But I think that that adds more credence to trying to take those elite or super valuable positions, the wide receivers, the cornerbacks, the edge rushers, the quarterbacks in the first round, because with two years left on a deal, it might be tougher to convince teams to already give them that extension rather than

with a second round pick, they're only on a four year deal after three years, it's a lot easier to demand that extension. No, that's a great point. And I guess what was going through my mind with the Jefferson thing is of course, these receivers are getting paid is that fifth year option for players. I think if they're with those very rare 1% type players,

they're going to be like, no way, no way. Am I coming anywhere near that fifth year option? I mean, they're going to be like, no way, no way. Am I coming anywhere near that fifth year option? I mean, you could sign me to it, but I'm going to make my way out of this in some way or another. And there's always a group of fans, of course, who says like, Oh, screw this guy. You can have control over whatever else. But the reality is we've seen this forever. Even going back to Carson Palmer, if someone wants to leave, they will get their way out of here.

Even like, think about Stefan Diggs when he was traded. It was only like two years before that, that he was running in the Minneapolis miracle. It wasn't even two years. And then all of a sudden he's just gone because he wanted out. And I think that's another part of it that it's taken a shift is that we see players taking control. Even when the NFL has been the ultimate we control you league, players have found a way at the very highest level to take control of their own futures. Yeah, I think that's part of the reason why this offseason has been so crazy

is that players are starting to take control of their futures. We're going to see either fully guaranteed contracts or larger portions of contracts being guaranteed in the future. And yeah, the hold in process, I think it's going to be effective. You know, they're not going to hold out because that would mean, you know, millions of dollars worth of fines, but they're going to show up, say, I've got this nagging ankle injury. I can't do anything until you give me that contract that I want. And I think it has been, you know, pretty effective throughout the years for these players, at least since the new CBA was signed, to try to do the hold-in.

So we'll see how far it goes with some of these rookie wide receivers. We'll see if it does start happening with those first round picks after their third, you know, year under contract. But, you know, ultimately it's good for the players. So I think it's good for the players. So I think it's, it's good for the league in general, might not be great for owners. But I do, you know, I like players having a little bit more power. So if this is what it takes, and if it takes a little bit more movement, then, you know, more power to them. Yeah. And I think it's great for

entertainment purposes and for people like yourself who report on the whole league and there's always something going on. But I also think that teams who might approach something like this down the road, like the Vikings with Justin Jefferson may be like, can you send me to Cincinnati to play with Jamar Chase? He might also feel that way anyway, because that's what happened with Devante Adams. I want to be a Raider, make me a Raider. But I also think that teams need to be very careful. And with the coaches you hire, the culture you create, all those things, the statistics that you make sure somebody gets, if they have those as their goal, like you have to manage all of those things. If you have one of these elite of the elite players, because if you don't think of that,

you lose Stefan Diggs to the Buffalo Bills. Yeah. You certainly have to treat players correctly. And it is, it's pretty fascinating that at least with the two, obviously we're talking a lot about wide receivers right now um which makes sense with the justin jefferson deal coming down the line eventually but the two biggest wide receivers that were traded this offseason davante adams and tyree kill essentially yeah they did get to choose their destination basically davante adams you know he wasn't going to sign that big contract if he didn't get traded anywhere other than the las vegas writers and even told the packers reportedly that he wasn't going to sign that big contract if he didn't get traded anywhere other than the Las Vegas Raiders and even told the Packers reportedly that he wasn't going to sign a deal and the to

ship off to the to the Las Vegas Raiders and the same thing essentially happened with Tyree Kill I think that he obviously was much more willing to sign an extension with the Kansas State Chiefs but they had run out of money hey they lost they ran out of cap space they couldn't sign him to the deal that he wanted. So then obviously there were suitors for Tyreek Hill, but ultimately he had to pick the team because he wasn't going to sign that extension with a team that he didn't want to go to. And it didn't make sense for a team to trade him for a one-year rental unless he was going to sign that extension. So I think that that's definitely a fascinating part of

this NFL offseason specifically. It also obviously relates to Deshaun Watson as well. He got to pick the team that he was traded to. So even if players are being traded, they're still getting to choose their destination. It is kind of like a free agency aspect for them, which is something that we really haven't seen a lot of in the future. And I think that, you know, in one way, you're right. Teams should be very mindful of this and they should be treating players as best as possible. I'm curious to see how ownership responds to this in the future. And if they try to come up with ways to alter this and to affect players' abilities to do this, because you know that that's probably coming. They're probably going to try to do something to affect themselves and allow themselves to still get as much as

possible in these trades and in contract demands and everything like that. So that's the next step, I think, is just to see how ownership and gms and everything actually respond to the way the players have empowered themselves this offseason yeah i was gonna say nothing owners love more than players having control and more power um although very similar to what you did with pff and of course was it was it neson that you left for me same deal you picked your location that was the spot no um but it's now there's a part of this and i've gotten a few galaxy brain type of messages about this about like what about not keeping the expensive star and using the cap space or using the draft capital and there have been a few people who have argued

you know really strongly with me about the justin jefferson thing like if he wants to sign to be the most you know highest paid receiver in the league that you should treat it the same way we talk about quarterbacks, where you want to look for cheaper, like draft one this year, have that person ready to take over for Jefferson. And when you look at the Valdez Scantlings and Juju Smith Schusters of the world, the difference between the quarterback market is there is a middle class of all these other positions. And I have thought about this with the corners, like one shutdown corner. If your other corner stinks, it doesn't matter because they'll just attack him. Last year, Bashad Breeland, they just threw at him all the time. And however, Patrick Peterson was playing didn't even matter

as they just threw at the bad guy. And I wonder about that too, because at this time of year, every year there's corners who are available, who can play there's receivers who can play. I think there's probably five or six guys out there who are decent. There's always situational edge rushers who can play. And there comes a point where you have to pick one of these positions or several of them and say, we're going to have three guys who are low paid, but decent as opposed to trying to keep our one very expensive guy. But I wonder if that, if you think that that's kind of a formula that these teams are having to deal with.

It's, it could be. I think that the issue there though, is obviously it still makes the most sense to build to the draft, because if you're comparing, you know, Marquez Valdez-Gantling's contract to a rookie wide receiver who's, you know, on that level or, you know, above that level, then three years, 30 million doesn't look nearly as good as whatever it would be, you know, four years, 4 million for a, you know, mid-round pick or even, you know, four years, 15, whatever it would be, you know, yes, you can go that route, but I think that you still do need, you know, a top tier wide receiver at some point you don't need it. It's not in the same way as a cornerback because you're not going to get exposed if you have, you know, one top tier wide

receiver and then two or three middling ones. It's not a, it's a, you know, a defense can't really attack an offense in the same way that an offense could attack a defense in that situation. But I don't know. I still do think that it does make sense to try to get that one elite wide receiver and then build around them through the draft. Because I just don't think that there's any guarantee, you know, in the draft itself that you're going to find another Justin Jefferson. I know that drafts are becoming stronger at wide receiver and it seems

like every draft moving forward is going to be strong at wide receiver just because of the way the game is played at this point. But if you miss, then you end up in a situation like, you know, the team that I used to cover with the Patriots, where you wind up with Nikhil Harry in the first round of the draft. And then you have to build up around him using valuable money, getting a bunch of veteran free agents rather than going back towards the draft. So I don't know. I know it's a ton of money, but you need to spend it somewhere. And I do think that once you get that wide receiver,

try to sign him to a market deal early on, because then in a couple of years it's going to wind up looking like a pretty good deal however if you can get a jabar gaffney for tom brady to throw to um that's if you have tom brady i guess it all it all changes all the formulas and that's the case but uh yeah not gabriel And yeah, they definitely won a lot of Super Bowls with some middling wide receivers there. So maybe not the best example, but these days, yeah, it does seem like you do need

that top tier wide receiver or really like two or three top tier weapons to actually win a Super Bowl. Folks, Minnesota sports teams are in the playoffs. Yes, that's right. Playoffs, Minnesota sports teams is happening. And for all your Minnesota sports inspired gear, go to SodaStick.com. That's S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com.

They have hockey, basketball, all sorts of great designs on hoodies, on shirts, on hats, everything you need. Go there. Use the promo code Purple Insider for 15% off your purchase. Again, that is SOTASTICK, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com, 15% off for the promo code PURPLEINSIDER. Yeah, that's what I think too. And your coworker, Eric Eager, has found this in some of his work

that oftentimes when you get into the playoffs, it's the number two or number three wide receiver who drives the success. We saw this with Sammy Watkins in the Kansas City Chiefs where the whole focus in the Super Bowl was shut down Tyree Kill. And this is something that's just been missing from Kansas City. We've seen it here even with two elite wide receivers over the last few years, Thielen and Jefferson or Thielen and Diggs. A lot of times when it would get down to crunch time, it's like those guys are getting doubled. Your number three has to beat somebody and they just didn't have anybody, which I think is interesting. I want to know from you, Doug, though, somebody that comes on the show all the time,

Chris Trapasso from CBS Sports. He floated the idea that with all the things in mind we just discussed, that teams should be looking to accumulate draft capital more than ever in any way they possibly can. So that even if it's multiple trades back in the first round to take a bunch of second round swings, or if it's trading veteran players to get any draft capital you can, because that might become a good player. The thing that's lost also in the Rams and their Superbowl is how much value they got out of players that they drafted. You know, they traded their drafts when their draft picks, when they were really ready to go, but over the previous years they had hit on a lot of picks. So I wonder what you think of that,

like how all of this changes the draft for teams. I think it's, I think that's always a smart thing to do is to try to acquire as much, as much draft capital as possible. Obviously the more swings you have, the more home runs you can hit, or even, you know, in some cases, like with the Rams, obviously they've hit some home runs with Cooper cop and Aaron Donald and everything, but it's, it's a singles and doubles on that team as well. They really allowed them to win a Superbowl. So yeah, the more picks that you can acquire the better. And if that is, you know, tre Super Bowl. So yeah, the more picks that you can acquire, the better. And if that is, you know, treading down for multiple picks

in the second or third round or whatever it is, I do think it makes sense. And this draft in particular, I think it's a smart thing to do because I think that there's kind of a top tier of this class. I'm not sure how many picks it goes down. Really, maybe like 10 or so where you've got, you know, all the elite edge rushers coming off the board uh you've got the top cornerback uh cornerbacks coming off the

board you've got some of the top wide receivers coming off the board and then it feels like there's kind of a drop off where this class you can get players you know midway through or in the 20s of the first round that are pretty much the same talent level, it seems like, as you can get midway through the second round. So this year in particular, I think if you are, you know, a team that's drafting 15th, 16th, you know, somewhere where those like those Eagles picks were or where the Saints picks are, I think it does make sense to try to trade down if you can't trade up for that one exact player that you want trade down try to accumulate draft picks either this year or in the future to just kind of build your team up through the draft i do think that there is some some logic to that and this draft also is interesting just because

it's so deep whereas last year was the the most shallow draft class in recent memory because players weren't coming out as the covet year, everything like that. This year, there's almost like a backlog of players that came out where, you know, Matt Grove, the Patriots director of player personnel was talking about the other day. There was like sixth year seniors who have played five years of college football in this year's class. And that's just something that you've never really seen before. So it is definitely a deeper class and there's kind of something for everyone in this draft. What a great year to have traded the fourth round pick for Chris Herndon for the Vikings. Nailed it. I mean, but really, I mean, even look at last year's third round picks

for the Vikings. They had a bunch of them and nobody did anything. And probably by the third round of last year's draft, there was a steep fall off that maybe would have been a normal fifth round or fourth round in the past. So I think that that stands to reason that if you trade back, if you're the Vikings from 12 to 20, say, and try to get another third, that might be like having a second in the past. So it's always interesting, the dynamics they're at at play. But at the same time, I say to myself, look at the, I say, I talk to myself all the time on the show, but I look at the 12th overall picks from the recent history. And it's like Odell Beckham and Micah Parsons. And there's like a lot of star players that are in that like edge of the top 10.

And so I think it's really dicey because you win Super Bowls with superstars, but also you win with complete rosters. And you can't have both here because the 20th pick will not be like the 12th pick yeah no it is true and yeah it's it and i think that that's almost kind of that's right away right kind of near where that drop off is i think that you could probably still wind up finding that elite player at 12 obviously you have to make the right pick the other thing too is that if you are going to accumulate draft picks and like you mentioned spend a bunch of third round picks and none of them do anything you also do have to be patient with those players and sometimes i feel like with teams if a player doesn't do something in year one right away then teams kind

of forget about them or then they wind up spending money in free agency anyway the next year and that that pick kind of goes to waste and not to use the the Patriots as another example here but in the 2020 draft they took two tight ends they took Devin Asiasi and they took Dalton Keene both in the third round neither one of them really did anything in their first year and then the Patriots spent a ton of money getting Hunter Henry and Johnnie Smith in free agency the next year. And it's like, all right, well, you've just completely canceled out those two third round picks that you used before.

And it doesn't really matter that you accumulated those extra picks and that you probably, you know, spent wisely on players who might have been able to do something. If you don't have the patience to actually use them, then it doesn't matter. So it's not only about the intelligence of acquiring those picks, it's also being progressive enough to actually give those guys some patience and actually use those players in the future. So I think that that's the tough aspect for teams

is that if they don't see it right away, then they might be prone to move on. And that's not always the best thing to do. It's always remarkable to me too. How many teams, I mean, they'll all say, we're taking the best player available and then it'll be the third round. It's like, I think we need to fill our guard spot.

No, you can't. I mean, last year, I just don't know how many times leading up to the season we talked about, like you can't draft Wyatt Davis and think he's just going to start because you have no idea what that guy looks like. If the league passed on him through the first and second round, you don't know if

he could play or not. And they drafted him to start and immediately that was not happening. So then they're moving a tackle to guard. He's never done it before. He's a developmental tackles. Just like guys who would have ever seen this coming if you, you know, everyone. So anyway, before we play two truths or a lie um what i i want to just ask you what your favorite storyline of draft season season season is because it has gone on forever and it doesn't maybe the date's not different i don't know why it feels this way but it feels like it's really dragged maybe the lack of like a super good debate um but what is your favorite story to

discuss and write about uh leading up to this draft that's tough i i do kind of find it fascinating the the whole all the edge rushers at the top of the draft um just kind of seeing how many of those guys are actually going to come off the board within the top five, top 10 picks, because I mean, you, I wrote about Kayvon Thibodeau last week, and I think that he's very interesting. Obviously it's been covered quite a bit at this point, but there's a scenario where he could actually even wind up being the fourth edge rusher off the board, which is kind of fascinating where, you know, Aiden Hutchinson, obviously the favorite right now to go number one overall, but there's also a possibility that Trayvon Walker could go number one overall. Then you've got Jermaine Johnson in there as well, who, you know,

I was recently talking to people who thought that he could go anywhere from fifth overall to 14th overall. The range that I was given for Kayvon Thibodeau was anywhere from fourth to 10th overall. So there is that, there's that overlap there where if Kayvon Thibodeau winds up going ninth or 10th and Dwayne Johnson winds up going fifth or sixth or something, it's pretty amazing that a guy like Kayvon Thibodeau, who throughout most of the 2021 college season,

we were kind of penciling him in as that number one overall pick, he could wind up being the fourth player at his position drafted at this point. So I know it is kind of the talk of the draft everyone wants to know where the edge rushers are going to go who's going to go number one overall but that that class in particular is just very fascinating to me and i wouldn't even say there's like a dramatic drop off even after those first four guys because george carlaftis is a really good player as well boy Boyan Moffay is going to go near the end of the first round. There's some really good edge rushers in this draft.

So if I had been a team in free agency this year, I might not have spent that big money on the edge rusher. I might have actually waited for the draft to get that player. You know what I like about this draft too is that the top 10 is filled with, like the league is parted it sees the smart teams and the teams that are psychotic and have no idea what they're doing and most of the top 10 is the psychotic teams i mean the texans the jaguars the giants like i know the giants are under new management but like these are teams that just do crazy stuff. And I feel the Lions are there.

It's like if you took the list of the worst run franchises in the league, they would all end up at the top of this draft. So they could do anything. It could be Trayvon Walker, number one, even though that makes no sense. You could totally see it. Yeah, and I mean, throw the Jets in there as well. I know that they're under newer management as well. But like, yeah, just honestly, the Jets and there as well I know that they're under newer management as well but like yeah just honestly the Jets and Giants each having two picks in the top 10 is first of all it's great for New

York I mean like if you're a if you're a Jets or Giants beat writer or you're a New York calmness or something like now you've got to be you know loving this draft but we have no idea what Joe Shane's gonna do we have no idea what Joe Douglas's going to do. We have no idea what Joe Douglas is going to do. I mean, yeah, there could be a serious wild card. I think that if you do have two picks in that top 10, then you can take a risk. You can take the one safe guy and then you can, you know, throw a curve ball and not to keep using baseball metaphors. I think it's because I had the Red Sox game on earlier that I keep using baseball metaphors. But yeah, I mean, you can throw a curve ball and take some wild card there in the top 10 if you do have a couple of picks there. To me, it's like a friend who has

a gambling problem and will bet on anything but isn't good at it winning $1,000. And then it's like, oh, I've got this great draft capital, and I'm going to spend it on something crazy. So I could totally see that from these teams. Okay, let's play two truths or a lie. I think you'll enjoy this. So what I've done is I have a prospect, and then I have three tweets about them. And you have to tell me which one is fake.

And then you have to tell me which one of these opinions is the real truth. Okay? Okay. All right, so here we go. Let's start with Sam Howell. This, again, two of these opinions is the real truth. Okay. Okay. All right. So here we go. Let's start with Sam Howell. This again, two of these are real. One of them is made up.

First tweet from Jim Nagy says based on the convos with NFL scouts during pro day session, Sam Howell sneaking into the late first round is one of the likely surprises of day one. Just real quick. If it's likely, it's not a surprise. Uh, anyway, uh, at, uh, okay. This is Zach Hicks who is coming on the show later this week. A good Colts writer

who covers the draft. He says I'm mostly out on this QB draft class overall, but I've changed my ranking a few times during this process. One thing that I've been pretty set on for a while, Sam Howell over Matt Corral. All right. Now our third tweet from Dan Orlovsky. I don't get the hype for Sam Howell. Throwing deep is only 15% of NFL throws. There are elite quarterbacks who aren't even good at deep throws. His processing isn't ideal. His size could be a problem at the next level. I hope it works out for him. I just don't see it. Is it Jim Nagy, Zach Hicks, or Dan Orlovsky's tweet that is the fake one? I'm going to guess that it's Dan Orlovsky's tweet.

You nailed it. Yes, correct. Dan Orlovsky has the fake tweet. I showed my hand by making fun of Jim Nagy. It's just too easy sometimes. the which one of these opinions is true either not getting the hype on sam howell thinking how was better corral or um thinking that sam howell could be a first round pick like which one of those opinions even though one of the tweets was fake is the right one i mean i do think it's entirely possible uh that Sam Howell does go at the end of the first round. That is something that I have also heard. So I'll go with that one. I would say that, yes, there is a contradiction there with a likely surprise occurring.

But I also, I mean, I think there are teams that like Sam Howell. PFF, we've liked Sam Howell really throughout this entire process. I believe that he is still Mike Renner's number one overall quarterback. I have heard great things about his deep ball. Surprisingly athletic is kind of the way that I've heard people talk about Sam Howell as well. But so, yeah, I am apt to kind of like Sam Howell. I do think it's interesting, and this is getting off on a slight tangent here, but I feel like a few years ago, Sam Howell and Malik Willis both would have been written off

based off their size alone, the fact that they're only six-foot NFL quarterbacks. And I'm not sure who shifted that narrative, whether it was Russell Wilson, whether it was Kyler Murray, but no one really seems to care about height at quarterback anymore. And overall, I think that's, that's probably ultimately a positive thing that even some of the, the old school thinkers in the NFL are now more willing to take a quarterback who's a little bit smaller than six, three or whatever the prototypical height at quarterback is. Well, both of them are Russell Wilson esque in that they're thick and muscular. I mean, Sam, how you watch his running highlights and he just busts tackles and runs over people.

I actually, I mean, I always, always, always draft nihilism. I have no idea who's going to work out, whatever. But Howell over Ritter is kind of a take of mine. And I'm just not, I don't think the NFL will agree, but that's kind of what I feel about the arm strength of Howell. But we have more to get to, more. Um, so I agree with you though. I, and I also think it's kind of an intriguing idea for the Vikings to trade back up into the late first, if they want a quarterback. Okay. Our next one is Drake London. This from a at PFF,

Seth, Seth Galina calling Drake London slow is like calling me short just because I'm not the tallest doesn't mean I'm short just because he's not the fastest doesn't mean he's slow. Our next tweet from at DG fan club, Drake London is slow. It's insane. And this from at Nick Pentacoff, hear me out. Drake London is Kyle pits.

Which one of those is the fake tweet? Is it, is it Seth Gal the fake tweet? Is it, is it Seth Galina's tweet? That's two for two. Wow. I'm bad at writing fake tweets. No, no.

I just, I feel like I will say that, you know, throwing in a coworker of mine, that's a little bit risky on this game. I could see Seth saying something like that, but I feel like he'd probably throw in some sort of like, like stupid, like even dumber joke than that. Maybe, you know, but

I tried to capture his humor, like his self-deprecating. Yeah. Didn't work. Maybe like throwing like a, like some sort of French word in there or something, something mispronounced, something Canadian. Yeah. Somethingadian uh as for what is correct i i actually think fake seth makes a good point i think that um it's it's concerning that we're not going to see a 40 time uh for drake london um but he's still you know a top five however you want to rank them probably top three on most people's boards. Wide receiver for a reason. He's got the size.

Speed isn't always the most important thing at wide receiver. So, I don't know. I'm still a fan of Drake Lennon, but it is a little bit scary. Actually, this year in particular, not to go on another tangent, I feel like there's been a lot of, like like crazy slow 40 yard dash times from, you know, wide receivers from cornerbacks, uh, from players that you wouldn't necessarily expect it. So I don't know. I maybe, maybe I should be more concerned that we haven't seen a 40 yard dash for Drake Leonard. Maybe it isn't like the four sevens with the four eights or something crazy

like that. Uh, but I do still think that he could be successful. Yeah. I'm, I'm a little skeptical on a guy who doesn't run the four days pro day. I just like, I don't know. Separation is King. And so is yak these days. And if you're not a separation or yak guy, I'm a little worried there. Um, so I, I don't know. I, I think it sends up some, some red flags. Okay. Let's move on. Uh, so I don't spend all day with two truths or a lie with you. Derek Stingley Jr. All right. First one from Joe Schoen MVP. Derek Stingley is mad overrated,

injury prone and hasn't been elite since 2019. This comes from JuiceXMontana on Twitter. Bro, Derek Stingley Jr. 29 tape, 2019 tape is bananas. He is Jalen Ramsey if he's healthy teams that pass on him will regret it and this from alex to the simpson i'd be willing to risk my entire reputation on derrick stingley jr as the best cornerback prospect i've evaluated and do it in my time doing this so is it Joe Schoen, Juice X Montana, or Alex to the Simpson? Is it, is it Alex to the Simpson?

It is not an actual guy said he was willing to risk his whole reputation. That's why I love this tweet and had to include it. It is Juice X Montana who says bro. Derek Stingley Jr. 2019 tape is bananas. He's Jalen Ramsey. If he's healthy, that is not true. But is he mad overrated would you risk your entire reputation doug or uh is his tape bananas i i think his 2019

tape is bananas i'll go with that one not willing to risk again the fake person the fake person is better than actual draft people which is just perfect i think that is perfect yeah that that encapsulates draft twitter pretty well um yeah i mean derrick derrick singley jr 1000 2019 was his best tape i wouldn't necessarily risk my reputation you know banking on him being a prospect because of what we've seen the last couple of years with the injuries uh you know with he just hasn't played quite as well at the same time. I don't think he is mad overrated because I think that, you know, that year did happen. It's a little bit of a scary prospect.

I think he's number three on our draft board, and I think that a lot of that is due to the fact that, obviously, he did have a really great 2019, but he's on the older side. I think he's going to be about 23 by the time that he's playing in the NFL. There have been some injury concerns, some play style concerns, and I think that that's why he's not going to be a top five pick, probably won't be a top 10 pick. But I do think that he's a good risk to take if you are maybe the Jets drafting at number 10 overall,

or if you are where the Vikings are picking it at 12th overall, I think that that's a worthy risk to take where you might be getting a talent who's a top five talent, but you're getting outside of that top 10. Yeah. I don't think that his ceiling is mad overrated, but I think that the red flags are real. And if you're drafting 12th though, like think about Micah Parsons, there were some character concerns there for Parsons and elite talent probably could have been number one overall other than quarterback. And, you know,

he drops to 12 because of a red flag and ends up as a superstar. I think that's just kind of what you're dealing with when you draft in, in the 10th, 12th, 15th type of area. But if the Vikings did it it i would praise it and say they need a shutdown corner um so take your swing okay two more for you two more uh desmond ritter on this one okay this from bammer 76 and all these people like claim to cover the draft

in some way so yes i don't know this is this is what it is uh how come desmond ritter isn't getting more buzz as the best qb in this class he's my qb2 behind willis seems like he's everything you would want in a prospect but consistently ranked fourth or fifth it makes no sense all right this from ms schneid no hyperbole desmond ritter has better physical talent than malik Willis overall. It's not just about arm strength, folks. The way he moves is more fluid. And this from NFL Mr. Miyagi, Desmond Ritter has slow, bad eyes and a weak non-NFL caliber arm, nothing more than a backup in this league.

What do you think? Is it the first one? That just seemed like a very wordy tweet. It is not. It is the Desmond Ritter has better physical talent than Malik Willis. That is the one. Yeah, no, I guess I haven't seen that take yet. Yeah. Interesting. Um, where, what's the truth about Desmond Ritter? I think, I think the truth is probably so better than Malik Willis, number two behind Malik Willis or slow, bad feed, slow processing,

just back to NFL backup. Yeah. NFL backup. That's really tough. I guess I'd go with the first one where I think that, yeah, I, I wouldn't necessarily put first one where I think that, yeah, I wouldn't necessarily put him right behind Malik Willis, but if you're talking about like the best quarterback in the draft,

the worst quarterback in the draft or somewhere in the middle, I'd probably say somewhere in the middle. I think that he's another guy, his athleticism, I think flashes. I think he's coming into the NFL at the right time. I know the aforementioned, the real Seth Galina, not the fake Seth Galina, is a big fan of Desmond Ritter. Anthony Tresh, also from PFF, another one of our draft analysts,

another big fan of Desmond Ritter. So overall, I think that PFF is pretty high on Desmond Ritter for a reason. And I think that he could wind up being a starter. I'm not sure if that's necessarily, you know, his, his projection around the NFL from people that I have talked to, there's been some doubt about whether or not he will be a starter, but I think that he could ascend to that point. I think he could get there. So I think, and this is not to insult any of your coworkers, cause Seth and Anthony are phenomenal analysts and I believe them for what they're seeing. I just think that, and I could be completely wrong too. There's a forest through trees element of this. Like the

guy has a great combine, but never really showed it. And his passes really float when you watch it. It's just not, there's not a lot of zip there. And so even if he can throw the ball hard, like technically speaking, when he's playing it, that doesn't happen. And, uh, that's where I would take Howell over him because I think that Howell just has a better arm. And that usually is the thing that makes a difference. But I think that the technical elements, those guys are really focusing on, uh, maybe I'm not sure if that's the main thing that determines success, but you know, I, I don't know, like, that's the thing with Desmond Ritter is even though I made up the fake tweet, I think he's the hardest one to figure out. He went to Cincinnati

and, you know, there's a lot to like, but I also think there's when a guy runs a four or five, but never really ran past people, you just go, what, what happened there? You know what I mean? Yeah. I mean, it's also, I'd say not to get too far into this. into this, it's a fascinating class in general, though, too. Because, like, I think you could make – they're all just clumped so close together, like all five of these quarterbacks. I think that Malik Willis clearly has the highest upside because he does have the biggest arm. He is the fastest. You know, obviously, Kenny Pickett currently seems like he's probably going to be the number two quarterback that teams are pretty high on him compared to some of these other players. But, I mean, picking between really even Malik Willis and whoever you consider the fifth best quarterback in this class,

there's not a great deal of differentiation between those guys. So I think that ultimately that would tell me in this draft, the smartest thing to do would not be to reach on the quarterback is to wait around, see who that third, fourth or fifth quarterback to come off the board is take a chance on him and see what he can do versus trying to reach on the guy that, that you might think is the best quarterback in this class who could wind up being the fifth best. I don't know. That's just, it's a, it's a bizarre class. And, you know, basically what everyone has said coming into this year is that Matt Jones, who was the fifth quarterback taken last year would be the top quarterback in this class. And I think that, you know, maybe even a more interesting conversation to have is, you know, where would

you put Davis Mills in this crop of quarterback and quarterbacks? And would he be, you know, maybe if he's not the first quarterback taken, would it be the third or fourth or fifth or something like that? So, yeah, I don't know that that that would be my advice to teams is to not reach on any of these quarterbacks and to hang back as far as you can before taking one. And also be very reasonable about what the projections really are and what the baseline is for you to have team success around that player. Okay. One more. I apologize for the length of the game, but the game is great. This is why we play games on the show.

Okay. So this is cave on Thibodeau because you wrote about cave on Thibodeau from at Jack's 16 Jags. If the Jags pick Thibodeau, I'm out. We don't need any more me guys. Okay. That's the first one.

The next one is from Brendan Deeg, NFP cave on Thibodeau is the best edge rusher in this draft class. He should be going first overall. And this is from B Trostler cave on Thibodeau is arrogant and selfish, but it's perfectly normal for Aiden Hutchinson to have an entire podcast series about his life. L M a O. So, um, whether it's real or fake, some making fun of PFFs,

uh, in-depth piece on Aiden Hutchinson, which by the way is amazing. Yes. Austin Gale put it together. He was on the show to talk about it. Go check it out because it's super good. But is that a fake tweet?

Which one of those three were fake? I can almost guarantee that third one is real. And if it's not, then I've seen like 50 other exact same or similar tweets to it in the past week or so. But yes, please do subscribe and listen to Hodge podcast about Aidan Hutchinson. I'm going to guess it's the first one. First of all, am I correct or not you are correct yes jack 16 jags did not say we don't need any more me guys i'm not i'm not sure if the jags can have any me guys who would that be yeah yeah i think that yeah you could uh yeah they might need some

me guys on that team right yeah. Probably equate to talent. But I just want to defend Jaguars fans. I think that, you know, you think about Jacksonville Jaguars or Jacksonville, Florida. But I think that Jaguars Twitter in general is usually more progressive than to say a comment like that. So that's what tipped me off. I'm sure there are Jaguars fans who think that,

but typically they're not on Twitter or they're not draft analysts. I think that, I mean, I guess the third one is the most correct. And that's not a shot at the company that I work for, certainly not for Aiden Hutchinson either. I just think that it's totally fine and normal for an athlete to have a brand. Like literally every single good NFL player or almost every single good NFL player has an Instagram that, you know, someone is running, they've got logos, they've got nicknames, they've got all these things. That's what made me laugh so much about the Kayon tibido thing like yeah i guess he's got like an nft and cryptocurrency

so it's maybe just like more modern than other players brands but like almost every nfl player down to like some backup offensive linemen currently have brands. And I don't know, maybe it rubs teams the wrong way more with Thibodeau than it does other ones. But ultimately, a lot of these players, you're never like players that you see in the past that have had character issues or they're known as me guys or known as being arrogant, whatever it is. You never really hear about it after the draft. And I think that that's probably going to be the same thing that happens

with Kayvon Thibodeau is that teams go through these interview processes and they have to justify talking to these players all this time and they get scared off by personalities or whatever. But once they're in the locker room, once they're around their teammates, it never really actually seems to be a problem. So that's the way I view it with Kayvon Thibodeau. Yeah. I also think that if there's any me position or it's totally fine, it's end like it's just it's really a one-on-one game it's you versus the tackle and whatever it's not like you have to be unselfish in that position uh you just go get your sacks uh i know i'm simplifying it there but i think that if there's any spot in the field that can be that way it's probably that and i totally agree with you that a player who has awareness of brand and value does not mean the guy can't play in fact

it's motivation for him to play because it's better for his brand and it's better for his bottom line so you know whatever your motivation is it's got to be something uh doug kai well sorry did you have something else on that no no no i think yeah no i i agree with you in general about defensive ends that is a good position to be a media guy. I will say that, you know, there are teams obviously out there, like, you know, I keep using the Patriots, but the Raiders are probably going to be another team and probably the Dolphins as well,

where they certainly need their defensive ends to also, you know, prevent the quarterback from scrambling around the edge and doing some other things. So there are probably some teams that wouldn't necessarily want that singularly focused edge rusher on the edge. But primarily, most teams don't care about that. So that would be a good position to be that knee guy. Right. At Doug Kyd, which is K-Y-E-D on Twitter. You have been a great addition to pro football focus with your reporting.

And so I'm glad we could catch up again. And really, I mean, next time two truths and a lie is the whole show there. We will just forego the other conversations. I don't care what you wrote about. That was really fun. And you did a great job.

Three out of five. Well done. So great to talk with you again. I hope we can do it again soon, man. Absolutely. Anytime, Matthew,

this is fun.