Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Eric Eager analyzes expectations for the Vikings

Episode Date: July 27, 2021

Pro Football Focus data scientist and PFF Forecast podcast host Eric Eager joins Matthew Coller to talk about reasonable expectations for the Vikings. Why the Vikings have reached a fork in the road by the way they handled the offseason. Eric explains how the Vikings have performed against Vegas expectations in recent years and why that matters. He talks about the bets the Vikings are making with short-term deals and which have the best and worst chance of working out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. We are exactly one day until training camp begins for the Minnesota Vikings as we record this. Although, as you're listening to it on Tuesday morning, I guess Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer are going to talk or already have talked. And then the Vikings hit the field on Wednesday. So I guess I shouldn't say we're a day away or this is happening because I don't know when you're listening to this. But anyway, training camp is nay. And I am here with Pro Football Focus's Eric Eager because we got a good tweet from a guy who has supported the show and supported the website for a long time, really since its

beginning. And I think even going back to my times at 1500, Nick suggested that we get together and talk about expectations for the Vikings in the most analytical way we possibly can. So pro football focuses, Eric Eager is here. And what is up my friend? Look, man. So part of me is like really jacked for this, the season starting part of me is like holy crap we have so many things to do before the season starts I'm guessing like you know it's sort of the Sunday scaries but I've been having them for like the last like six weeks so um I'm excited I'm excited for obviously um you know all the the new data that's going to come in, I'm actually like excited to bet some preseason games because you know,

that's kind of who I am. Man, it's such a different, even though we had a day on Twitter, what day was it? Like Thursday or Friday. It does feel like a better situation than we were in last year. We have called it on the show, the training camp scaries because every one of us sort of feels this giant thing coming and we're getting ready for it, but also overwhelmed by all the things that go along with it. A new football season. And it's just been so long since anyone played any type of game. And it's been even longer since anyone was allowed in the stands.

So there's a lot of excitement for that. And it's even longer since some have been allowed in the stands so there's a lot of excitement for that and it's even longer since some have been allowed in training camp that yeah yeah yeah uh that's true a very long time since some have been allowed in training but uh but not i i was there last year with no fans in the stands at all and it was spooky and weird and i'm excited for there to be fans back in the stands again and people can actually come and see what the team looks like. So let's get started in this discussion about expectations. For me, I look at this year as a pivotal year in the trajectory of the Minnesota Vikings because they decided it was going to be.

After 2019, they could have taken the direction of, we're going to rebuild this thing entirely. We're going to move on from our quarterback. We're going to move on from our coach. And we are going to kind of go back to square one. Instead, they had one foot in, one foot out. A lot of players left because of the salary cap situation and age. And yet they tried to trade for Yanni Gengakwe and they tried to keep Anthony Harris on the franchise tag and they kept cousins and they kept Zimmer. And that didn't work. You put one foot in one foot out and they got exactly what you asked for with that, which is basically a 500 record from last season. So this year, this off season,

they have made a bunch of signings to try and rebuild this defense in one year which is a tricky proposition they have the quarterback sitting there with some uncertainty after drafting a quarterback mike zimmer is sitting here with uncertainty about his future after they've put so much into this defense and that is my approach to this season as in setting expectations eric is i kind of go off of what i think they'll be but also what the team thinks they'll be and so you can add up all the numbers and say well it looks like here's what vegas says here's what pff says whatever and then it's here's what they think that they should be and i and i believe those to be two different things, not two very different things, but two

slightly different things. Yeah. And just a brief like discussion as to why I like to sort of go and say, okay, here's what Vegas thinks, because a, it's a lot of people that put their livelihoods on the line to make, to make the number, But B, it also cuts it right down the middle. So I actually went back in preparation for this. I went through and looked at how the Vikings did against the Vegas spread in the Cousins era. So just to remind everybody, they're 25-22-1 straight up in the Cousins era. They are actually 23-25 and one against the spread so that means vegas is saying you know here's the number on the game i'm including playoffs in that

uh i took out the sean manning game so here here's here's the number here's the point spread that we think the vikings are better than this team. And, you know, if the Vikings were constantly exceeding expectations, they would be really high in that number. And I think what that does is give us like a, like if they're facing the, you know, a really good team every week, they don't have to win, but if they cover the spread more often than not, then that would show that they were exceeding expectations. But not only have they not exceeded expectations, they've basically gone 500 against the spread,

which tells you that the bookmakers over a long haul do a pretty good job of planting exactly where the Vikings are going to be. And their win total in 2018 was 9.5. They went under that by a win and a half. I believe in 2019, it was 8.5 or 8. And they went above that by a win and a half i believe in 2019 it was eight and a half or eight and they went above that by a win and a half then last year they went under nine by two wins so they've if anything not done well against expectations so it does matter i think when you look at this team you see an over under-under win total of 8.5-9. You see PFF, our number for them is 7.9, assuming Rodgers plays.

It's important to lay out that context. But I agree with you that the Vikings probably would not be satisfied with anything under a double-digit win season. So that's where the rub is. And I don't know, man. I think a lot of things have to go right for that to be true. And that's what I want to talk about here, because this is my opinion when it comes to how we set expectations and whether they can reach them. Because those, again, are two different conversations of like how we set our expectations. And you just talked about it with Vegas and with your PFF numbers and where they say this roster basically should add up to

in terms of talent. So I want to get into like how I think they'll perform against those, but let me just make another point about those. They start with the quarterback of the team. Like this is where everything begins for Vegas, for your numbers. It's the most valuable person. And how that person performs is a determining factor to where you're going to be. I think that that's about the most basic football thing you could ever tell someone. If they had never seen football before, it's like how that guy does will decide how far you go about 90% of the time, whether you win a game or not as often, which quarterback played better, especially today with more passing. It's like in basketball,

the more points there are in basketball, the less variance there is. So the teams that are shooting the most threes, at least, you know, maybe not this year with the bucks, but at least in general are getting this advantage of if you're better at that you're going to win more often i think the same thing goes for passing and it's not to say this is a this is a different thing than saying how good is kirk cousins it's how does he play in the season uh that will determine it and if he starts the season very poorly like he did last year that determines where you're going to go how much was his fault how much you're going to go how much was his fault how much was the defense's fault how much was the left guard's fault the third wide

receiver all these things we talk about that's not really the point in setting expectations it's for me when I look at what Kirk Cousins has done over now a big sample in his career he has shown a tendency to be every bit as good as your roster is. So if your roster is a seven and nine roster, which the Vikings was last year, and that includes defense, of course, then you're a seven, nine football team. And if you are a 10 and six, then you're a 10 and six. He's probably going to get you what you are, uh, or sometimes a little less, which I think was the case in Washington. And I think that was the case in 2018. And again, something goes wrong and it's going to impact you maybe more than it would for other quarterbacks. So that's where I start with my expectation of this team to be around 10

wins. That's where I picked them to be as 10 wins because 10 is the new nine and seven. And that's essentially what the quarterback has been. And now let's talk about the other part of it, which is what you're saying is this team has made a lot of bets this off season in signing so many players that are bottom of the barrel or not in their prime in the case of Patrick Peterson. And they all have to hit and they've made bets with the draft as well. They all have to hit to be far above where I've set the bar. Some of them hit there there. And if not many of them hit there below that, and I, and that's the way that I'm thinking of this.

Yeah. And I, and I think even though like, here's the thing that like, if, if you, let's say that you had a wager on Minnesota over eight and a half, which you can still get, and they finish nine and eight and you're a Vikings fan. You go to the counter. You pick up your money. Are you happy? I mean, no. Of course not.

No. Nine and eight does not make you happy. No, of course not. Yeah, and like we talked about this when you and Judd were hosting a show and it was the second year of the cousins era. And it was like, what does, yeah. Cause like, I struggled to say like what it, what success looks like. Cause I feel like if they do what they did in 2019,

I still don't know if that's enough because you're double digit underdogs on the road against, you know, and that you look at the NFC, the landscape of the NFC, and you're saying to yourself, okay, you're in a division with Jared Goff, the Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers. The other favorites in this conference are Tom Brady leading Tampa Bay, Matthew Stafford leading the Rams, and some combination of Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo leading San Francisco. Like, if there was ever a time to win the Super Bowl out of the NFC, or at least make

the Super Bowl out of the NFC, it's now, right? All the great quarterbacks, save Brady and Rodgers, are in the AFC. So, like, I, you know, I do think 10 wins is probably fair. It's a fair thing to expect out of Minnesota. I think nine is probably a fair thing to expect, you know, if you're a neutral. But I don't think either one of those numbers is good enough either. Like, I think you have to make a deep run in the playoffs for sort of this

whole thing to make any, cause you're still like, do you, do you agree with this, Matthew? Like you, do you think the last three years are part of the ledger? In what way? What do you mean? Like, so if we're going to go back and grade the entire, like, it's sort of like in a, in a, like, if you're great teaching a class you say if you get an a on the final you get an a in the class like i i sort of agree with that in that if the vikings win the super bowl this year or even make the super bowl this year i think all sins have washed away right yes but if they if they make it to round two of the playoffs

and lose a close game let's say and you're you're asking to grade the entire cousins era assuming you know and like it's still not a success is it if they were to be a six seed or a seven seed and win on wild card weekend which uh is a magical weekend by the way i mean just doing doing if you're not covering a game, just doing nothing but watching nine hours of football is great. But if they go and they win one of those games and then the very next week they lose and it's similar to how they lost in Philadelphia

or how they lost in San Francisco, then no, then that's not enough. That is not where you set the bar when this began. And that to me does matter. What you've done recently in the last three, four years matters a lot to how we set expectations because look at the New York jets, for example, this is the opposite end of the spectrum sort of, or farther down in a different area of the spectrum. It's a team that has just been garbage and they hired an exciting new coach. Who's got a great reputation. They brought in an exciting top draft pick quarterback. And if they win nine games, people will say, Oh my gosh, look at them. Look at them. They've done

a great job here. And look at Cleveland last year, they won one playoff game and it was very exciting. And then they hung in the second one it was very exciting for Cleveland's organization but only based on the fact that the next year's expectations would be higher for Cleveland and because they had an opportunity to build this thing going forward this right here this is sort of a second swing at a peak type of situation for Kirk Cousins and for Mike Zimmer where 2018 was on on the downslide after 2017 but it was still a very very good roster and they hired the wrong OC and there were pick sixes and strip sacks that happened that cost them games and there were prime time games that were no shows and all all the things that lead to a quarterback having a 500 record at the end of the day. The defense was not as strong as we had talked about going into that season.

So that was a great year in terms of a roster, but not a perfect one. And then 2019. And then you sort of like last year, I think they thought they were going to be better, but even they wouldn't have said we're a Superbowl team. The fact that they went out and signed all these players for this year, it says you have to win and you have to go farther. If Kirk Cousins goes farther than that, if he's in the NFC championship game, then I would say, all right, there was disappointing things along the way, but this is where you set the bar when this started over the last couple of years. So yes, you have achieved that and he will have had to play great to be able to be there.

If they lose in the first round, then to me, it's just, this is who you are and this is who you've been. And this is who you'll always be because it's probably not getting better than this going forward. There's going to have to be another transition of the roster because so many guys on this team were signed to one year contracts contracts and so you might be talking about now changing quarterbacks to to have somebody cheaper and you might be talking about changing coaches to have someone who's more pass heavy you might just have to do something to get out of the rut that you've been stuck in that's how it's going to feel if they go nine and eight yeah and there's there's a couple I think you hit on a few great points. I think here are two of them that I'll make. The one-year deals were a necessity, right, because of some of the dead money and the

inflated deals that are coming up next year. Also, the fact that next year is probably not going to be the year where the salary cap takes the big leap, right? So this is really a one-year thing. And this is not trivial. If the Vikings get to, let's say, the division around the NFC Championship game, a lot of the players that they've taken low-stakes gambles on, and let's not make a mistake, these are low-stake gambles. But if D.D. Westbrook plays well,

if Xavier Woods plays well, if Brashad Breeland plays well, they're not going to be affordable in the next year. You know what I'm saying? Not for this team, you know. And I think that that's really like when we look at the Cousins deal in totality, that's the frustrating thing is you don't have the power you used to have, right? If you locked up like the Sheldon Richardson deal after one year in 2018 I thought Sheldon Richardson played fantastic in 2018

but that would then he goes to greener pastures after that right because you don't have the long term viability um all these signings here I agree I think relative to the the the cards they were dealt they've had a good off season but if all of those things work to their specifications a might still not be enough to win a super bowl and b once the the dust settles the bill is going to come due on this year and you and and and so to, it's like a really tough, you know, needle thread. And again, my whole point was the cousins deal has made that needle tough to thread from the very beginning. Yeah, no, that's right. I mean, even from the fact that they just couldn't replace a left guard with Joe Tooney or Roger Saffold or whatever, you could never get

a real prime free agents, or you could only get one, or you could only keep so many people. I'm sure that they wanted to keep Linval Joseph or, you know, I'm sure there were others, uh, Everson Griffin that they wanted to keep, but they had to say, Nope, you've got to go because of our salary cap situation. And Joseph and Griffin are still good players. Um, I don't know about Griffin status for this year, but they would have been a heck of a lot better. You're probably in the playoffs if you have them as opposed to Jaleel Johnson and whatever was at defensive end last year. You're probably, that's probably enough to get you one more of those wins that were close losses and get into the playoffs. But, you know,

to your point about the sort of conundrum that they've presented with themselves by saying this year is kind of it for you guys and you have to prove it is if they do prove it, but don't win the Super Bowl, then you sort of go back to a 2018 situation where you're going to be sort of scrambling and you're going to be working to try and keep cousins and signing him to another big contract and trying to sign all these people who stuck around, but you're going to lose some and then career years won't happen again. It's like, it just, this cycle that keeps going. However, here's what I would say.

I really like that. They made savvy moves that they probably should have made last year with DD Westbrooks and Bashad Breelands. These are smart moves. These are inexpensive. You're not locked into these guys and their NFL players. I mean, last year you said, oh, we don't need to sign Logan Ryan because Holton Hill will be fine. They didn't make that bet this year. They said, well, let's get one star in Yannick Ngakwe instead of three players that we could have brought in at

the last minute. And a lot of those players who were brought in last minute helped a lot of teams around the league. And so they adjusted their thinking for this. So that's kind of the smaller picture. And I want to go through some of these guys and signings to kind of put odds on the bets playing out. But there's the other part of it of when you create, and video game players will get this, like when you create a final boss, it's like this, this sort of, uh, what would you say? Like a culmination of the Zimmer era comes here to this season where it's either go where

you want to go, or we're going to have to change something and setting, setting that up. It really creates a fork in the road and you go this way or you go that way. The 10 and 7 scenario makes that harder, but I think that there's a higher bar to reach for having no changes. I'm not saying everyone gets fired, but there's something will change if you're mediocre again. Creating the fork in the road, I think is really good for the organization to be able to say after this year, we'll know where we're going to go. Yeah. Yeah. I don't disagree with that. And that I talked about this today on the PFF forecast with George. It's tough, right? Evaluating teams is really hard because, you know, it's sort of like

in a lot of cases, I do think that teams were sort of oftentimes will pat teams on the back for putting out fires they created, you know, and and we don't take a step back and look at the broader context of how a team's operating. And so with Minnesota, it's tough because I do think that there are oftentimes threads of cohesion. Right. That makes sense. You know, that like this follows from this, which follows from that. And this, I think this off season was like the first time, and maybe last year too, like with the, what they did with the draft and everything, trading for Ndangakwe was a little bit of a tilt chase, whatever. But, you know, as critical as I can be of them, like, I do like this, right?

I do like saying, look, like, the Wilfs have bent over backwards for Spielman and Zimmer for years. And at this point in time, like, what do they have to show for it other than a pretty relevant franchise but never a competing one and so i like this this issue the question becomes as it did after the 2019 season which is are they going to make decisions based upon the most like the most recent thing that just happened you know what i mean like i think that's because i think that there can be 10 and 7 runs that are exciting right the tenant the 2019 vikings season i the game against new orleans was one of the most fun games in vikings history right like and unfortunately i feel like they made decisions based upon that game as opposed to sort of staying a course or charting a course.

This appears to be a course that makes sense, which is you draft a young quarterback. You don't expect a lot out of him, but there's a fat tail there. If he ends up being, you know, a Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins type player, then you have a really good asset for cheap for a short amount of time. You have, you know, young, you did a decent job of collecting a lot of players that can play for you. If those all hit, you know, but then again, like at the end of the season, I get a little nervous because we've seen what happens with Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay took all the money and re-bought every player. Kansas City, after 2019, did the same thing. And there are still fragilities that if you don't plan properly,

can blow up in your face like they did for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. So I'm interested to see what happens this season will probably determine a lot. I hope that they have that scenario planned today and not middle of January 2022. This was a point that I remember making when the Vikings were one in five is decide now what you want to do with your quarterback. Do not decide based on the second half of the year because you've got Jacksonville and Carolina and Detroit and you've got some teams on the on the schedule you're gonna win some games there was no question about it and I think we even projected them to go seven and nine or eight and eight even when they were one in five or two and four or whatever it was two and five uh we were still saying I think this team wins some games down the stretch so you should really decide now what you're doing.

And I wonder if that was really the case or if they decided down the stretch, wow, we won a couple of games in a row and we got back into the playoff race. And you could say, okay, well, it was just the defense. And you could talk yourself kind of back. Vikings, by the way, with 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games. They were expected to beat Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Detroit. And Detroit was the one. Yeah, it's crazy.

But, like, it's crazy how we miss sight of expectations, right? Like, they were, what, three and four in that stretch? But they never met expectations in any of those games and and that's what i mean is that you should decide are you going to stick with this or not because it wasn't a good team it was a team that had one really great player in justin jefferson a really great player in harrison smith a really great player in delvin cook and Adam Thielen, but a team that overall was very, it was like Falcons-y really with the way there was where there's star players, you know them and you like them, but the rest of the roster is pretty rough. So you decide

now what you want to do. I'm not sure they did. I'm not sure they did. And it always seems to be with them this, like you said, whatever happens recently happens recently 2017 you go to the nfc championship game and then okay now we've got to kind of change course from what we've been doing and pay a quarterback a lot of money to come in here because we got this taste of winning and i forget you guys had a guest on the show on your pff forecast podcast and i I, gosh, I forget who it was, uh, who said like once teams get a little sniff of winning and they don't win the super bowl, they often start to do crazy things. And you and I have brought this up with like the Los Angeles Rams trading multiple first round picks for a quarterback who might not be that much better than the quarterback you gave

away. It's like, once they get, let's, let's say they sorta get that up in their brain. Uh, they start to, to make moves and risks. Minnesota twins fans will appreciate the Josh Donaldson deal paying so much for him. And, uh, I think that that's been the Vikings organization. So I wouldn't be surprised if that's what they do here is if you go into the second playoff game after you've gone 10 and seven and say all right if we win this one everybody stays if we lose this one everybody goes and it's not really the best process yeah i mean yeah i don't know i it's interesting i in talking with so i'd have um some friends in the league i'm trying to like understand some of these processes a little bit better. And just like, I think that the complexities of a team are extremely,

are extreme. And I think when we, when guys like you and me or people on the forecast or whatever, when we praise a team, it's kind of because we can see that those complexities are are processed out in a way that makes sense right like so when i talk about a team like cleveland i know they've only won one season so far in like a long time but like when i look at the way that they make decisions when i look at the way that they like set aside processes and like all that kind of stuff i'm like there's a thematic consistency here you know and there's a thematic consistency here, you know,

and there's a, we're not going to overreact to any one thing, right? Like Baker Mayfield was asked for like three games last year, like at crucial times, like crucial times. And they sort of just, you know, like they stuck with the process, right? And I know that that's cliche and, you know, to the Vikings credit, they did stick with a lot of, you know, a lot of the process after 0-2 and a bad 0-2. But, like, there have been, like, I wonder every single season there seems to be a different off-season theme.

And I wonder, like, are they willing? Because it takes a lot of security. It takes a lot of like people not wanting credit. It takes decision makers having input from what I would consider evaluators. And, you know, there's, there's not a lot of unilateralness to everything. And I wonder, you know, I wonder how close the Vikings are to that. Cause you know, I don't actually have the answer to that question, but you know, I wonder how close the Vikings are to that. Cause you know, I don't actually have the answer to that question, but you know, there, there are aspects where I'm looking and I'm thinking,

you know, some of these decisions are inconsistent, but I would say the landscape of some of these job securities inconsistent. So what do you expect? Hey guys, I know we have all had this conversation at home. Are you really going to spend the whole day out on the golf course instead of being with the family? Well, that's what makes Birdie Golf so great. You can make it a family experience at Birdie Golf, bring the kids, and still get in all of your swings. They have eight of the world's best golf simulators where you can sharpen your swing and have a great time.

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And job security has just been such a conversation here over the last couple of years that when job security is influencing what you do, which is so often in the NFL, and a lot of teams are dealing with this as we have this discussion. I mean, we could go through probably 25 teams and talk about where they stand in their trajectory and where they've gone the last four years and what it all means to everybody's job security and how their job security impacts all the things that they're doing on the roster. And that's why it's sort of fun for teams to be the team that just tanked, because you've probably got a new coach and

new GM and they can kind of do whatever they want. And that's where we've seen some of the Vikings processes either repeated when they weren't repeatable or change from when Mike Zimmer and Rick's well, Rick's feeling had been here before, but when Mike Zimmer first came in and started making the grocery list, if you will. And some of those processes have stayed the same, like drafting lanky third round or fourth round defensive ends. And that one hasn't really worked out. Drafting fifth round receivers, that hasn't really worked out. But one thing that they circled back to this year was looking for the sort of underrated type of player. That's what D.D. Westbrook, they want him to be. That's what DD Westbrook, they want him to be.

That's what the shot Breland, they want him to be. That was your captain Munnerlin or Linval signed for money, but that's kind of like a Delvin Tomlinson type of thing. So it seemed like they sort of circled back to some of those things that they had done before. But even in doing all of those things, you are showing that the pressure is on you because really you're in a bit of a situation where you've got Jefferson and this offensive line that you've drafted and these defensive players that you've been drafting and drafting and drafting. And there's also a world for the Vikings where they went, you know what? We're not going to sign a lot of people here. We're just going to let this build and let this play out. maybe and maybe we go nine and eight and that will feel like a next step and then 2022 is the year where we sort of say all right jefferson's in his

prime the linemen are ready to go all right now let's make that big move and let's let's sign two or three more stars we've found out who can play amongst our development players but they don't have that luxury and they don't and they also don't have that luxury. And they also don't have that luxury with Cousins' contract either. Like, you signed it. He's here. He's going to play for you. And you might as well try to put everything around him because after this year, I don't know where it goes.

It was always something, and not to, like, bring up the past, but it was always something that I appreciated about the Brad Childress era. Like, I'm actually, like, fairly impressed. I was fairly impressed. I was fairly impressed. In 2006, Childress took over, and Edger and James was a free agent, right? But Childress always opted for the – in many cases, they did sign Hutchinson to a big deal, but he always opted for the second contract guy that's a tier below that he could get for life-changing money for the player but

not a high contract and so he got chester taylor who was a terrific i think like complimentary piece the following year they need a wide receiver help and they need a tight end and daniel graham was like the big guy that cost all the money edwin james by the way busted for arizona daniel graham busted for the for denver he went and got for sante shanko a backup on his second deal he went and got bobby wade and um and like the problem was is that worked right like he got like he was they were good at evaluating talent they were good at getting deals but then they got to a place where they were good enough that they needed that extra oomph, right? They needed the extra players.

And what did they do? They traded a first and two-thirds for Jared Allen, gave him a huge deal. Allen actually played so well, he played through the contract, which almost never happens. Then they traded, you know, they got $20 million a year for Favre. And the problem was Childress was not comfortable in that skin. And right. There was always friction between, you know, the, the Allens and the Childresses and the Favres and the Childresses. And like, it just shows again,

like the dedication and why only a few teams are actually good for that long, because it takes the dedication to like, you look at Kansas city, they fired John Dorsey in large part because dorsey was very tolerant of the you know the tyree kills the cream hunts the travis kelsey's like marcus peters and they were like it's gonna blow up at one point right and so like but he that was how he was and then they had to like transition to brett beach and and now brett beach has a process and it's like even then it's like, I don't know necessarily long-term, is this going to be another Green Bay situation where they win one Superbowl

and it sort of dissipates after that. It like, I don't come at the Vikings with like sort of this like hubris of saying, oh, there's one way that works forever and ever. Amen. I'm just saying it's really hard. And a lot of the things that Vikings have tried, especially recently, I don't think are the formula. And this is what I wrote about earlier this off season that you can find it purple insider dot substack.com, which by the way, if you type in purple insider dot football, it now takes you to the site. I bought that. I got, I have to buy a shirt here, uh, relatively soon.

Yeah. It's a week one when you come and visit with it, when they play the Bengals. Terrific. Uh, yeah, the shirts are coming soon. Soda stick working on those. Um, so I, I got, uh, I got distracted there, but the, the interesting thing about where they stand right now, what I wrote about was if job security wasn't an issue if you had said for the next five years mike zimmer and rick spielman i will not fire you

no matter what and you know save for whatever other you know incidents but i won't fire you based on your record or any of your decisions now decide where we're going to go how would you handle it like would you have made a better play for justin fields would you have drafted mac jones rather than hoping to fill a spot would you have not signed a bunch of you know defensive free agents or expensive free agents and rather tried to play your draft picks and see how it worked out would you have traded harrison smith would you and and that's where it's so interesting to me with how this year in this offseason played out because you had i mentioned like the fork in the road. Well, there was a there was a fork that had a bunch of different sort of exits that you could take on the road.

And so you're driving and you've got your roadmaps and one exit takes you to, hey, it's a five year plan or a three year plan. Another exit takes you to it's all in on this year. Another exit takes you to it's all in on this year another exit takes you to it's all in on kirk this year with offense another one takes deep they took the we're going to lean into our defensive head coach we're going to hope our offense repeats and does even better than it did last year under a new offensive coordinator and a rising star in justin jefferson and then if it doesn't play out then we're going to make changes that's my presumption. I think that nine and eight missing the playoffs would kick in some changes at very least the quarterback, but maybe more than that. And I think that any one of those exits that you take is justifiable and has a logic behind it. And so even though my exit might've been different, I can also say, I get this exit there last year. I didn't get the,

they just kept driving and it was like, are you going to do this? You're going to do that. No, we're just going to keep, we're going to franchise Anthony Harris. I don't know why. We're just going to keep driving. Right. But this year, this year, they took a route that made a lot of sense and then how it plays out will determine where they go. And I think that's good for the overall franchise for the future. Yeah. Yeah.

I think I would probably paint it differently if I were to give that, that vote of confidence that you're talking about, because I think, you know, we've talked about this at nauseam on your show, the, the, the, the league goes as rookie quarterbacks go, right? Like those are, you know, that's where it is, right? Like I talk about Jacksonville. Like if you want a sleeper team this year, the fact that Jacksonville is spending $22 million on their first two quarterbacks,

their first three running backs, their first three wide receivers, and they're all like pretty damn good or have great draft capital associated with them, like when that team becomes good, they're going to be so flush with resources that they're going to be able to press that edge, right? So if I was – let's say I thought Zimmer and Spielman had the goods and there were just a couple unlucky things and blah, blah, blah. I would go to them and say, look, you have two rookie quarterbacks left. And you can look, you have those two left and, and you,

you have to start one this, you know, you have to start with one this season, you know, and this would be before the draft or whatever. And you, you get two rookie quarterback cycles. If you can't win, you can't find your guy with those two cycles, then it's whatever. Right. Cause to me like that, if you tell somebody that, then I think you're, you're pretty straightforward about the way to win in the NFL and you are giving them a time period that I think is reasonable.

Five years to me doesn't even seem that reasonable, even though it feels like a lifetime to the NFL. You know, for sure. And this is why I think that it works to do it this way because, okay, there were five quarterbacks in the first round this year. There's probably going to be five again. There's probably going to be another Carson Wentz who is a good quarterback, but then his team sours on him and he's going to get traded or someone doesn't

sign a contract like Baker Mayfield. That will happen after this year and there will be other quarterbacks available. And so if you kind of push all the chips to the middle of the table this year with all these signings and you say, all right, go win. We've got you the strong roster. And then you don't, you can take that route. Like that route isn't gone because you didn't take it this year with Justin Fields.

There will be another Justin Fields this year. We're already projecting several quarterbacks to be high. There'll be three more dudes who show up who've got first round potential and you could pick one and you could trade cousins and you could go forth with that if you decide this didn't work and you could still get to that place that gives you the best chance to win. And so even though it was delayed a little bit, maybe by a year of getting that guy, if you draft Justin Fields, you also have to sit him for this year, unless you trade cousins immediately, which wouldn't have been able to happen after the draft. So it's not like, oh man, you missed the exit. You can never go back. Like, no, but you can get off at this one

and you can circle around and you can come back to that place and i think that's ultimately what happens if they do go eight nine or something uh or even if they go you know even if they go ten and seven and they decide well it's a good coaching performance but the quarterback wasn't good enough again and so maybe we're going to stick with these people and not with the quarterback you know like there's there's a lot of different places you can go, but it doesn't collapse your franchise, and you can still trade up for that guy with some young pieces on your roster to work with. You have to embed the idea that failure is okay,

because when you don't, that's how you end up with Cousins. Is there more there? Yeah, okay. I wasn't sure if it was like – I don't – because like cousins is the like and i hate like i hate these analogies are perfect but like cousins is the nice guy like that you're not happy with right like it's just not like and and the problem is is like you know by hook or by crook unlucky or lucky the vikings have failed at the position

repeatedly with spielman and i you know cousins was just trying cousins was trying to win a different game than all these fans want which is the fans want to win a super bowl and the spielman wants to hang a banner for the quarterback you know and like, again, I think like instilling the idea of like, let's take a shot and have a real, like that was always the appeal of Bridgewater, right? Was he, there's something there, there, he's inexpensive. You can build around him and the ceiling is unknown, right? And we've seen, you know, that was probably wrong, but that's okay.

Like, that means you get to go back in the well. And if you're know and you know for Carolina it's Darnold which doesn't make any sense but for a smart team like the Bears it's you know in this instance it's Fields which you look at the the relative excitement uh for Bears fans versus Minnesota fans right now yep very very very different completely different with Justin Fields and believing where you can go with that franchise, as opposed to feeling like the most likely scenario is always going to be 500 or over a three-year period, 500, basically. Last thing we should talk about some of the bets they're making. I want you to tell me which ones you think are the most risky that could really have a huge impact if they don't click.

And the ones that are the most, as you like to say, like stable and ones that are the most likely to be solid. Yeah. So, so the. Say kicker, say kicker. Hey, why haven't you gotten another kicker yeah i i mean the the one that i think will actually probably yield the most repeatable result is xavier woods um i don't think he gets to be included in this list of like oh look here the vikings got these great players because they gave up anth Harris for him and Anthony Harris was not signed for that much money right so like it's a lateral move but and probably less

than a lateral move but I think Xavier Woods will play well this year yeah um Dalvin Tomlinson to me like is to is the biggest wild card and I think a lot of it is price he's the most expensive on the list he's playing out of position uh if things go well I mean Michael Pierce who knows how the the injury will you know the the will linger with him throughout the year but to me he's the riskiest one in a weird case I know he was signed to be uh you know the most you know the most impressive of the group but you know you have to price adjust if McKenzie Alexander busts, if Rashad Breeland busts, like you can't be mad at anybody because you signed them for like a million

bucks each, $2 million each. Like they were bound to bust. If you sign, you know, Dalvin Tomlinson to 11 million a year and he can't get any pressure as an interior player on rundowns and as a, sorry, an interior player on pass downs and a three tech on rundowns. You're like, you don't have a complimentary piece to Demel Hunter. Hey everyone, I want to tell you about our friends at Scout Logistics. And I really do mean it when I say friends.

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So I'm looking at it a little differently because I don't look at the price equation here so much because they just need these things to happen and so if someone busts you could say well you only spend a million dollars on it but that that's like having your phone out of charge and then having your charger break that you bought for cheap and it's just like well you know i only paid a buck for it so i'm only out of buck but my phone doesn't work because that's it you know right so that's yeah that's what we're doing i think that the biggest bet that they're making that is the riskiest is drafting offensive linemen to start just historically i i think that you know bashad breland is a good player and is the bad version

of bashad breland's a good player or at least okay same thing with mckenzie alexander like three years in a row he's been the same exact guy so he'll be that guy more likely than not um xavier woods is probably going to be fine betting on the lineman third round starter at a key position ezra cleveland moving over positions again you know for the second time in two years or really kind of like the third position that he's played tackle right guard left. That is a very risky bet. And if it hits and they're a good offensive line, if they're like PFF's 14th best offensive line, I mean, the offense could be just flat out terrific.

Yeah, and that's the thing. And one thing I want to appreciate you for, you brought this up. I always talk about Reif and how good of a season he had. I know he had kind of an easier road of edge defenders. You look at this season right here, you have Hendrickson week one against the Bengals. Presumably, although he's asked for a trade, Chandler Jones week two against the Cardinals.

But J.J. Watt, if not. Yeah, week four, you have Clowney and Miles Garrett against the Browns. You know, against the Panthers, people think the Panthers suck. They have Hassan Raddick, who had double-digit success here, and Brian Burns, who I think might be Defensive Player of the Year. Demarcus Lawrence against the Cowboys. The Ravens' defense is no joke. You have Joey Bosa against the Chargers.

The Packers go at you with both Smiths and Rashawn Gary. Niners have the other Bosa. Steelers have the other Watt Bears have Khalil Mack Rams have Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd and then you play the Packers and Bears again like this is a murderer's row like there was somebody who was talking about JC Horn the other day and like sort of the the schedule that he has as a rookie top 10 corner Christian Derrishaw has a murderer's row of edge defenders if he can be competent in year one that will like for one he's going to be a starting tackle for a long time because you know but I would guess that he's probably still going to be a starting tackle

for a long time he's probably he might suck this year and like and those two things are still like it's okay for him to suck in year one, especially against great. Like, I mean, these are grown men rushing the passer against him. It's okay for him to suck, but like the Vikings can't actually have that because they need, they need Kirk like Kirk cousins is not the kind of guy who protects his offensive line. That's right. That's right. And that's the,

the biggest bet that they're making. And I think the one that has the lowest chance, even though one year contracts usually, you know, are very much hit or miss, but that's the one that has the lowest chance or, or involves the most risk, but also has, I think, a fairly high ceiling, like you said. And that, and that's another part of it is normally you'd say Christian Darasaw.

Okay. If he struggles in his first year, that's fine. A lot of tackles do, he could take the next step the next year. But under this circumstance, it's not fine because you drafted him to have him be good against Miles Garrett. And if he's not good against Miles Garrett, it's going to blow up your chances of being a very good offense. And that's why it all ties back into how expectations really shape how we feel about just about anything and what makes

this all so interesting so let me uh let you go on this and i'll probably ask for this again to see if it changes after training camp let's say rogers comes back give me your prediction last year you were close you said six and ten last year they went seven and nine so So give me the Eric Eager official prediction for the Minnesota Vikings. Eight and nine. I could see them like I have. I have some bets on the Vikings this year. I have some for them to win the NFC North. That is a hedge against Rodgers not coming back. I bet on them week one against the Bengals. But long but long term, I just told you about all their, their different opponents. You know, I'm not,

I'm not as like out with this. Like I, I think if they went 11 and six, I would be like, Oh, okay. That makes sense. I can see how that happens. I could also see them going five and 12. So like the average of all those or simulation is like this too. I think if you take Rogers out of the equation, it's probably a nine and eight type of thing. Like, so the, the tricky thing for Vikings fans is if Rogers were to leave,

is this going to be another 2018 or is this going to be a 2017 where the division's wide open for you and you take it or you let some other upstart team take it the the fact is Detroit's going to stink this year though uh and so it really is hard for me to pick them as a really low-end team given that I think that they'll sweep Detroit and I think they just have too much offensive talent to be be a team that falls apart. And so if the offensive line is good and the defense is average, then you could click and get 11, 12 wins and probably not more than that. But if it doesn't go right, you're nine and eight, eight, nine,

depending on your kicker or your fumbles or whatever, whatever it might be, we'll put you there. Your last, your last eight games, or let's say your last 10 games, you have two games against the Packers, which could literally go either way. You have two games against the Bears. We don't even know who the Bears quarterback will be then. Steelers and Rams, two teams that were playoff teams,

double-digit wins last year. Both teams, I'm not that high on. And then you have Chargers literally could go either way and you know and they do every year and the Niners might be starting quarterback like the Viking there's a ton of uncertainty here when we talk about the Vikings especially late this season and that's what will make this year interesting but I will say the one opinion I'll never really understand is when people say man I want rogers to come back so the vikings can whip them like look buddy nobody in history no one in history will remember or care if he played that

year or not if you go to the super bowl all right no one will go back and be like well i don't know rogers no no nobody ever does that you reach the super bowl they'll say you reach the super bowl nobody does that with rogers getting hurt in 2017 they're not going to do it here. So, uh, my I'm on record with 10 and seven and, uh, eight, nine for you for now until we see something change. And I appreciate this. I know it was a long conversation, but I think, um, one, one that Nick foretold when he, uh, made the suggestion on Twitter. So people are always free to send me suggestions, topics you want me to discuss, guests you want me to have on. I'm always happy for that.

And I appreciate this one. So good stuff, Eric. PFF Forecast Podcast. I listen to every single episode with you and George Shahri. And I can guarantee we'll do it again soon, man. Yeah, this was fun. Always great to talk Vikings.

And man, it's such a more fun place to be this time of year than it was last year.