Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Eric Eager breaks down why it's OK that the Vikings didn't land Orlando Brown

Episode Date: April 25, 2021

Matthew Coller is joined by PFF's data scientist Eric Eager to talk about why it wouldn't have been wise for the Vikings to sell out for Orlando Brown. They also talk about whether Rick Spielman's strategy of trading down is smart and why the Vikings would be wise to pick DeVonta Smith if he's available at No. 14. Eric talks about best bets and some past draft picks that he got excited about in Minnesota sports (yes, Steph Curry comes up). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get Coors Light in the new look delivered straight to your door with Drizzly or Instacart, Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, presented by Scout Logistics and Symbol, your stock market for sports. Matthew Collar, along with Pro Football Focus's Eric Eager from PFF Forecast Podcast, which gets many, many mentions on this show, especially the Thomas Dimitrov interview, which was just terrific, Eric. How are you? I'm doing great. I think this time of year is so much fun because there's so much scenario planning. There's so many things that are, I mean, it's sort of right up our alley where, you know, anything could happen and yet not that much changes. I know

this is airing a little bit after this, but you know, the Orlando Brown trade to Kansas city and you know, the, the chiefs have the same exact wind total that they did pre-trade as they do after trade. And they have the same probability to to win the super bowl according to the markets so like we we we talk about these moves all the time as if they're life or death for a team and you know when you look at the very acutely at 2021 they don't matter that much because everything sort of comes down to what we've talked about forever which is kirk cousins and the you know and what he does for the vik Vikings at what price he does it for. Okay. Well, let's talk about Orlando Brown anyway, because there's a tweet that I get all the time and I sort of don't know what to do with other than just sort of wave my hands at it, which is what could Kirk do while he's laying on his back because of the offensive line.

And what I don't get is that, okay, yes, I agree that the offensive line needs to be better, but do I think you need to do something ridiculous like trading for this much for Orlando Brown because of, you know, a pressure rate that we're only talking about, maybe a difference of a pressure to per game. And the fact that Kirk causes a lot of his own pressure, 15% of his own pressure was caused by him last year, according to PFF, which the only guys ahead of him on that list are scrambling quarterbacks and terrible young quarterbacks

who don't know what they're doing out there yet, like Drew Locke. And so I think like, yes, yes, on the offensive line, totally agree. It has been egregious that they have allowed the offensive line to rank 28 29th by pffs pass blocking if you're going to sign a quarterback for this much money who holds onto the ball you have to protect him but let's not go nuts here and just point at offensive linemen and

say get that one because you see one available i mean I guess I, I have this push and pull all the time. It's like the guy has never been hurt here and anywhere and set career records here each year. And yet it's still like, Kirk can't do anything without an offensive line. I mean, I just don't know what to do with this, Eric. Yeah. I, yeah, that's a great point. I mean, cause one of the things, you know, when you look at evaluating quarterbacks that it gets hidden. And both of you and I are Justin Fields fans, I think very much so. I'm his pressures, 28% of them, but 20 total, were attributed to him, right? And that's something where you look at how accurate he is, you look at how good he is at throwing the football, you look at some of the amazing plays he made against Clemson in the college football playoff, but that's a hidden thing that's not in the data for Lawrence or Wilson or even somebody like Lance, although Lance is interesting, you know, from an evaluation perspective. And that's the sort of thing when if you do enough pro football referencing and enough,

you know, breaking down, yes, you can find the thing where Kirk has the best passer rating among players X, Y, Z, but like there's this hidden things that make him not, you know, not more than the sum of the parts. And I sort of like to think about quarterbacks that are paid as much as cousins. You know, Wilson turned Metcalf into a star, even though Metcalf makes second round money. You know, Tom Brady made Tristan Wurfs into a rookie of the year, even though it's really hard to be a rookie of the year when you're a tackle. If you're going to make that much money at the quarterback position, you have to elevate the play of those around you. And, you know, when you look at some of these historically great

quarterbacks, they don't always have elite offensive lines. In fact, they often elevate the play of their offensive line. And if Kirk Cousins is going to be take the next step as the Vikings quarterback, that's what he's got to start doing. Yeah. And that's not going to happen at this point. I mean mean he is who exactly he's going to be and so this is not me saying they don't need to improve you absolutely can't have dakota dozier playing left guard for 16 games that's just inconceivable how anyone would sign off on something like that a guy who i was talking to someone who used to cover the jets was like guy's still in the league huh like not only still in the league, huh? Like not only still in the league,

but started a whole season. I mean, I, I mean, as a backup, okay, fine. But like winning a starting job, how do you let that happen? I think is a totally fair response. But you need to look a little deeper at the fact that, you know, Tom Brady only caused about 4% of his own pressure versus 15% from Kirk Cousins. And so, you know, the, the bar that you need to be better is probably higher than you're able to reach even through free agency moves or whoever else you could sign or whoever else you can draft this year, which we'll get into, you know, talking about that in a second. But one thing to point out is 2016, Kirk Cousins had a really great offensive line in Washington and he graded an

80.6 by PFF. He's graded higher than that the last two years. So it's just, it's not like, Oh my gosh, you could just never do anything with this. It needs to be improved for sure. But sometimes I feel like it's almost used as a way to be like, Oh, but it's not really, it's not really the quarterback's fault. It's just, it's this, it's this, it's this, it's this like, okay, I agree that you need to improve the offensive line and that there have been some crimes committed there on the

offensive line. But I also think that a lot of those games, just, you know, a no-show, a pick six, a strip sack where you're holding the ball too long. Like a lot of them are determined on a few plays that are big mistakes that had nothing to do with the offensive line yeah and that's and but the hard part is is when so when you're the 2017 Vikings and and you are 13 and three and you you go and you try you know, win a Super Bowl the following year and you sign Cousins to that deal, like the goal isn't to get good quarterback play and excuses everywhere else.

The goal is to win a Super Bowl. And like I can tell you right now, like Kansas City is not saying, well, look, Mahomes did his job against Tampa Bay. Like that's what we're going to rest – no, I mean, you know, for better or worse, they're going out and getting Mahomes less excuses. Or, you know, another approach they could have taken was to say, look, Pat, you're making a half a billion dollars. You get less excuses.

And that's kind of the tough love I give with Cousins. It's like you're not being paid to put up great statistics. You're being paid to engineer a great offense, which he at times has. But you haven't been consistent enough to win games with that engineered great offense. And in many ways, because of the resources that he garners as the quarterback. Now, if they go and take Christian Derrishaw, let's say 14, or they get lucky and Rashawn Slater falls there or Elijah Vera Tucker, and they, they sort of move, they have him play interior and they, they work around at tackle. Let's say, I mean, Matthew, what do you think about like, if they had Rashad Hill, Elijah Vera Tucker, and then Brian O'Neill at right tackle, like, you know,

you know, Rashad Hill'sNeill at right tackle. Rashad Hill's been okay at left tackle before they get an elite level prospect out of the interior of the offensive line to go with Bradbury. They could do well, but the onus comes on to Kirk Cousins, though, to protect his offensive line better than he has over the past three years.

Yeah, no, and that's something that probably won't change now let me just first again clarify like i'm talking about specifically when we look at an orlando brown trade and say why didn't the vikings do that to me i take that as guys you can't just say this is the difference like orlando brown is the difference orlando brown didn't even play as well as riley reef did for you last year so the the idea that it's oh well if you get this tackle that just completely changes everything I I just don't see that and I also don't see you know a huge difference you know with cousins from a bad offensive line to a mediocre offensive line which

is probably where you're going now the idea of drafting Vera Tucker, I really like that. I mean, I think that that makes a lot of sense for them because the pressure on cousins often comes up the middle and Vera Tucker, even if he's not a hundred percent ready as a rookie, it's gotta be better than what they've had. And so get, get to that point and continue to add some weapons and find some other players that are late free agency ads. Like this just, right now your roster probably is an eight or nine win roster. And so things have to happen here in the draft and through the rest of the way to change.

It's like, you ever see that meme that's like, change my mind? Like, okay, you're a nine win roster right now. Change my mind. And even Vera Tucker, which would not excite anyone, I would support a move like that. But that's what I was going to ask you is broadly, like who's the best realistic player the Minnesota Vikings should take?

Yeah, that's a great – I mean, if they really want, if they really want to sort of take, here's one that I think people might be surprised at, but at 14, they're going to have a, they might have a chance at Devante Smith. That's the best player they could take. I agree with you. Yep. I agree with you a hundred percent because I think that the production you're going to get out of an offensive lineman in the first year versus even if you brought in Eric Fisher, even if you signed an offensive, you know, an offensive guard late, or if you draft a guard in the third round, which of which there should be a number of them who are decent prospects versus creating an unstoppable group of weapons.

I know that people get sort of tired of me talking about, you know, the wide receiver three and all that, but it's really about like, when you look at what cousins did in Washington with the weapons that he had, why that hasn't tried to be repeated here is kind of puzzling to me and why they've left it to,

Laquan Treadwell will be fine there. Chad BB will be fine there. And I get trying to improve the defense, but not signing another wide receiver, it kind of leaves the door open for if it's Devante Smith, you should really just take him. I mean, I'm not concerned about the fact that he doesn't weigh a whole lot. I'm a little jealous of his weight, honestly.

But, you know, that doesn't scare scare me away i think he'll be a really good player yeah yeah no i and and the thing is is like we're seeing like this is where the vikings and i was watching um the 1998 draft i think i think you would love you know that i was watching that the other day and the the the grin on dennis green's face when they interviewed him after he drafted Randy Moss, I think should be hung up in Canton. But, like, the – you know, I think Waddle goes before Smith. Obviously, I think Chase does as well. I think there's over a 90% chance in the betting market that that happens. And when you look at Devontae Smith, like, it's almost, like,

too good to be true for them when you're talking about his separation ability, when you talk about his ability to make plays after the catch, he's even a pretty good at contested balls, despite being that small. And, you know, when I think about in Vikings history, you know, the 2000 and, or sorry, 1998 Vikings, the 97 Vikings were nine and seven the 96 Vikings were nine and seven both teams they won one playoff game those two years uh that was the only playoff game Dennis Green had won prior to uh you know 98 Chris Carter was third all time in touchdown receptions by a wide receiver before Moss was drafted so you had elite level wide receiver play on that team and you had a bad defense. You had a good offensive line for sure and a good running back, but the wide receiver, the extra weapon took your offense to such another level that the teams couldn't touch you. And if I'm the Vikings and I'm thinking, okay, what's there? No one player's fixing that defense.

That defense is either going to be okay because Zimmer can mess with all these veterans or it's going to be terrible again. And no one player is going to fix the offensive line. But one player at the skill position, that wide receiver can take that offense from, you know, good, you know, but not good enough to overcome some of the issues that they have to a Super Bowl contending team. Hey, everyone. Anybody who listens to the show knows that Sam and I may not be scratch golfers, but

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they could have that would be majorly impactful versus the number of plays that an Elijah Vera Tucker would impact over a regular starting guard, not named Dakota Dozier, someone who's better than that. Cause I agree a thousand percent with all of you about, you can't have it be ridiculous at left, left guard. But I think it's a lot. I mean, I think it's a lot more than we think it is because we look at how often they play, you know, 11 personnel and say well it wasn't really that much and and so forth but then you start adding up the targets that didn't go to jefferson and didn't go to theelin and you start looking closely at a lot of those third downs and

fourth downs and key situations and you start to go man they targeted tyler conklin like three times in one game on third down or fourth down i I mean, he made plays in that game, but that's just not who you like. Why was Tyler Conklin on the field on third down and long? And, you know, I just think that a lot of these games end up coming down to kind of like situations. They go a lot of the same way with a lot of good teams. And then it's, can you come through in these certain situations because you have the guys to do so?

And to use the, you know, the Chiefs as an example, it was like they couldn't come through in those situations in the Super Bowl because they were pressured. Yes. But also when you look at like that game on tape, you also see like, who was Mahomes supposed to throw it to also because they put so much emphasis on covering two guys. And I just think it's, I don't know. I feel like Cincinnati is having this debate too, right? Like, like what have you taken away in your opinion from the great Sewell versus Jamar chase debate, where it feels like it feels like theirs is much more legit where the Vikings probably won't take Devante Smith. But I guess I wonder what you think about that because I've seen just like fans and former offensive linemen and everybody sort of arguing with each other over what Cincinnati should do. Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, I'm generally speaking on the side of wide receiver play.

But, you know, the, you know, I think I do think so I'm on the side of wide receiver play for sure. I do think that there's a little bit more of a flat sort of distribution between Chase, Waddle, and Smith. One of the reasons why I think the Vikings acquiring him would be extremely good get. If you can get somebody who's within spitting distance of the best player at the position, a very valuable one at 14, like that's a great get. Much like Moss wasn't, you know, Kevin Dyson was taken ahead of him, but Moss was the best player at the position, but best player

in the whole draft. He took him at 21. I think Sewell is, is quite a bit better in many ways than the next best lineman. So there, there's something to be said for saying, okay, the wide receiver class is extremely deep and you can get the best offensive lineman and a second tier wide receiver. If you're Cincinnati, that's probably not going to be the case. If you're the Minnesota Vikings, if you go, you know, let's say you go Smith and then in the next, you know, the next round, you you you will. For one, they don't have a second round pick. So it's a little bit different for the Vikings. But but yeah, you've learned I've learned a lot. I lot i think you know the the the offensive lineman thing i mean i do think the left tackle scarce but to your point there's not we're a one we're

a one left tackle league that's always going to be the way it is we've grown from a two wide receiver league to a three wide receiver league so in in over the course of the past few years the position has got a lot more scarce right yeah and uh the other thing too is like um Sewell if he could play three positions would be great but it's like if the Vikings draft for Sean Slater and start him at left tackle you still have a problem it's still the left guard is an issue and who are you playing there and and how is that different from last year when Riley Reif was fantastic and your offensive line still let up a ton of pressure because you didn't make it at least good all the way across.

And I guess that's where I get held up. And so even though I do agree that Christian Dersaw or Rashawn Slater, or they, you know, get somebody, if they trade back and get somebody in the second, like Walker little, like you're yes.

Okay. Invest in the offensive line. No, one's complaining about that. I totally agree. walker little like you're yes okay invest in the offensive line no one's complaining about that i totally agree i just want to know how this is going to be different from where it was last year if you're drafting someone to start at left tackle right away and odds are that it's actually decidedly worse like even the odds that a rookie left tackle are better than rashad hill in their

first year are not super high compared to just going back through, you know, the PFF grade. So that's where I think, you know, 80% of the fan base wants them to draft an offensive lineman. And I think that's great for the future for sure. But for this year, I'm not sure how many problems it actually solves in comparison to another playmaker that does solve an immediate problem. And now I wonder what you think about on the, like the defensive side and just drafting defensive players at this point, where we are in sports ball,

because like you look at what determined the success last year in the NFL, and maybe this will change when it's not a COVID season, but it was just offense, man. I mean, it was like, if you're the best offense, you are, you are rolling, you know, the Buffalo bills have a very average defense. Didn't matter. They just steamrolled. Right. And, uh, Kansas city's defense was not like game changing. And again, like they beat a bunch of great teams on the road. Are we going to see like barely any defensive players that are taken high, which leads me to ask i don't think zimmer's a lunatic

if he takes the number one corner on the on the board at 14 yeah i mean the the the last time three quarterbacks were taken in the in the first three picks was also the record for the latest a defensive player was taken which is champ bailey at seven to the washington football team um i think this year it's probably going to be picked 10 before you see a defender. That's the way that it's looking. Unless Carolina decides to go or Detroit decides to go there. But yeah, I mean, right now, for example, like JC Horn, you're looking at his over under it's like pick 13 and a half. You could,

you know, Sertan, I think it's 10 and a half. They, you know, they don't need a linebacker. They shouldn't take Parsons, but I think there's a good chance he'll be available there too. So there is something there that the issue with defense is, is the value of getting the best player is so much less because defense is such a product of the sum of the parts, especially the way that Zimmer plays it, where, you know,

he's very confident that he can sort of get what he needs to get out of defense. So, yeah, the opportunity will certainly be there for Zimmer. The question becomes, has he learned sort of like, you know, the value equation and what, you know, what to do there? Because if Sertan's there, it's going to be really hard for him to pass up, I think. Yeah. And that's with their cornerback situation and the value of corner and how I think you need to have a very good defense. If you're the Vikings to win with Kirk cousins as well, that's, I don't think it's nuts. I just, I don't think it's a terrible idea if you're taking the best player and then Zimmer can tell us, look guys, I actually did take the best player this year. Uh, that was available. available. You made the connection between the mid-90s Vikings and right now.

And I wanted to ask you more about that because I was texting you about the 96 playoff game against Dallas where George Teague turned into Troy Polamalo and Ed Reed in that game and had multiple fumbles caused, interceptions and everything, and the Vikings got killed. And then in 97, they barely escaped with a playoff win on an onside kick for Randall Cunningham in one of the most hideous football games ever played in the National Football League uh but uh you know I feel like there's a there's a correlation there because when I was watching the broadcast Al Michaels and uh Frank Gifford are talking about and you know Denny's gonna need to do something here he's gonna you know he's gonna need to take this team to the next level or they're gonna hire lou holtz i don't know

if you remember those rumors but apparently those were rumors that the vikings would hire lou holtz so uh i wonder if there's a connection there where it's like this team needs a special season next year for them to not change direction like if they do what vegas thinks they do then we probably are talking about something quite different after this like this feels like a very much like a pivot point in i don't know like the the future of the vikings yeah and that was the same thing with denny i mean denny wrote a book about the ownership of the team, I think, in 97, 98, earned a contract extension by going 15-1. I mean, that's certainly the possibility. The other thing that happened in the NFC Central in the late 90s that might happen in the NFC North is that the rest of the division falls off.

Green Bay didn't make the playoffs in 99 or 2000 um and right now they're really the only team um is slated to have a winning record besides the Minnesota Vikings who sit at eight and a half and overs overs you know juiced over so um that that's you know that's a very uh it's an opportunity to be good in a flat NFC and and furthermore like I hate to bring this, but if San Francisco takes Mac Jones pick three, like that's another that's another like break for Minnesota. Right. Unless, you know, Detroit rebuilding probably not going to be a good place, not a conducive place for a quarterback. Atlanta might take Justin Fields. But again, the edge will be gone a little bit because he'll take two years like the NFC you know it is pretty flat and if Minnesota a few bounces go their way they can absolutely compete you know you know this year you know my money's not on it but obviously you can see the path towards it. Folks the football offseason is off and rolling and

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crazy to see them in the early or mid part of the third round and then end up at the back of the third or the early fourth and then pick up seventh rounder and seventh rounder. I look at it like this because they say, oh, we got to have more swings. If I have more swings against Johan Santana, I will still swing and miss it all of them. And I feel like my odds of putting a ball in play against Johan Santana are close to getting a seventh rounder who turns out to be really good. So that's my view on it is that the trade back thing is kind of a nice, a nice idea, like theoretically, but in application, I can't find too many seventh rounders that have been worth moving away from higher picks, you know, in, in like the third round. So you,

but you math it for me. No, I think the purpose of seventh rounders is to round out trades when you don't have the right change, you know, that that's it, I think, you know, and if you're on the, if you're on the receiving end of a trade back, so let's say you trade back, you're going to pick up seventh rounders as a result. They're not worth all that much, you know, six, seventh, you know, fifth, sixth, seventh rounders, they are what they are. And I don't think you should ever, they should be the by-product of good process,

but not part of your process, if that makes sense. So that, that's it. I, you know, it's tough. And I don't think that, and I think that Zimmer and Spielman, I think overvalue them, frankly, which is weird to say, because we're normally team trade back, but I think that the sweet spot is rounds two. Well, in the Massey thaler papers set of it like the second round picks are the most valuable picks in the in in the world and they were prior to the previous uh you know the cba and they i think they still are um you know seventh rounders are just you know they're they're they're uh roulette you know

they're they're you're putting you know money on the numbers and the roulette table and those barely ever hit. This is also why I know that the Vikings are going to try, I'm sure, to get a second round pick. But I don't know if they can, because I feel like teams have really figured out that second round is a great place to be. And the Vikings recent history is fantastic in the second round. But that in Gawkway trade just keeps coming up like almost every day like well could they have done this or should they do that uh if only they had that you know you could address multiple needs with really good prospects but now they're just really not able to do that it's kind of like um if you can't trade back then you take your player at 14 and then sit

on your hands for a long time and then even it seems to me like the drop-off between the second and third round might be the biggest drop-off of the entire draft almost every year. Yeah, I think so. Yeah, I mean, generally speaking, it has what it's been like because of, you know, basically the second round picks are basically overflow from the first round and they have something wrong with them. But in general, that thing that's wrong with them is not,

you know, they're, they're still a first round prospect. And so if you're a good team that has, you know, resources to, uh, you know, put these players in good position, then you should be okay. All right. Here's my other one. Let's talk about some of the best bets in the draft. Cause that's what you guys talk about with the PFF forecast. And if some folks are really desperate to bet on some football in some way or another, is it, is it a best bet that Justin Fields will go number three to the San Francisco 49ers?

Yeah. I mean, it's complicated, but right now you can get him for plus 250 meaning if you if you bet a hundred dollars for him to go third you win 250 plus your own bet so um you need that to happen 30 of the time for you to break even uh i think that he's at least even money with the other two guys um lance and and j Jones a lot of people think Jones is going there um but yeah I think Fields and Lance are both great bets you know one of them's plus 250

one of them's plus 300 um you know the not Mac Jones bet I think is the best bet okay so you're finding Mac Jones bet to be kind of dangerous then and and I think this too because I don't really have I mean I don't really believe that he's going to go number three for one and then I also think is he the guy that everyone sort of pretended to be excited about so they could try to maybe make another team think you should be excited about Mac Jones I don't know like there there was a guy in our locker room chat the other night that made a very strong case that Mac Jones is a great prospect but then again I watch it and go I'm not sure I just I don't know like if if he was the guy that fell and fell and fell and they were going to his house and saying Mac how do you feel about falling down the board like would we be

really shocked I wouldn't be no and and I god I hope that's the outcome I mean like because because I I you know and this is the part of the issue with betting it's like you don't want to coach your bet like if I could if I could bet on the Vikings and then make sure they throw the ball just Jefferson 15 times then I'd be much more confident than just betting on them anyway. But if I, if, you know, if, if it was me, I would never trade three first round picks for Mac Jones. Like it just would not happen, but obviously that's not me making that decision. And so, you know, when I, when I say that, you know, Justin Fields is a good bet. When I say that Trey Lance is a good bet, I'm more embracing the fact that it's more uncertain than the Michael

Silvers and the Michael Barty's and all those guys are saying less than I'm saying, I expect Justin Fields to be the pick there. You know, I do think that the logic makes sense for Mac Jones to fall out of that spot, but you know, we are seeing, you know, people that are respected say that he is the pick. So that's why we play the game as that's why we play the game all right give me give me some more give me some more that you guys

talk about all the time for good bets uh yeah um gosh this is so let me uh man there was one that we we we talked about literally on air the other day and the price moved while we were talking about it which was crazy to sort of think of if if we had that sort of influence um i like jalen phillips plus 200 to be the first defensive lineman taken um so he's quitty pay is currently the favorite to be the first defensive lineman taken i did like christian barmore at seven to one he's now four to one that was the one we were talking about but i think jalen phillips has a chance to be the first rusher to edge rusher taken um where and he's not the favorite so you get a two to one pay out there um the last one i do kind of like is i do like

micah parsons is currently four to one to be the first defender taken um Sertan and Horn are the favorites but part of me just thinks like the art smock the um Matt Rule is just gonna say look we need to get tough we need a replacement for Luke Keekly at eight and they're just gonna take Micah Parsons uh and you know troll all of us I don't think Carolina has any idea what they're doing. So I think that's totally possible that they would do something like that. Okay. Last thing you, you grew up in Minnesota. And so you watched many, a Viking draft and paid attention to it. I want you to tell me the player that got drafted on draft night, or even second round,

third round, whatever it was that you remember being like, that's the guy. I mean, he's going to change the franchise and then you were totally wrong like someone someone that you were really excited about the pick and thought that is a great job vikings i can't believe you got it right the super bowl and then totally well can i tell you a funny story first so 2005 was my freshman year at minnesota state and we were playing our spring game. I was a football player. We had a spring game the day of the draft, which what horrible timing. I remember coming off the field and looking at one of our assistant coaches who's a grad assistant and some slappy. And I was like, who'd the Vikings take? And he goes, Troy Williamson.

And I go, no, no, what's the first pick? Because they had picked seven that they got for Randy Moss, and they had picked 17 or 18 for – that was their original pick. And I thought they'd pick, like, Derek Johnson at seven and then, like, Troy Williamson at 18. And he goes, no, they picked him at seven. And I was just like – I don't think I said a word the rest of the day. And then they took Erasmus james at 18 which you're

which our friend judd will tell you hated football more than anybody um i also hated the fact that the vikings drafted percy harvin over michael oar so really what do i know um let me think uh that's a that's a good one um oh man that ended up being bad i'll tell you one from my perspective where just as lover of draft uh when i was working in buffalo we i forget where the bills were picking in 2013 but we had just done so much work on the top prospects and i thought boy that that Matt Khalil is unreal. Like this guy is crazy good. Wasn't there a story that Matt Khalil had bumped Tyron Smith over to the other side

or something? They were both at USC. It's like, man, Tyron Smith can't even get left tackle away from this guy. And I mean, you watched him just everything, everything there. And you talk about a guy who didn't love football well that became the problem I think along with injuries and other things for Matt Khalil but the other thing too was and this is one thing I also love about drafts is when you decide that you nailed it way too early and then it blows up in your face like I think Gino

Smith had a perfect quarterback rating with one of his first starts and i was like man i knew he was better than ej manual which you know long term he has been but you know not a starter and the same thing with matt kalil when he made that pro bowl i remember being like freaking bill should have just traded up for that guy he was unbelievable and then you know here we are well in that year also six sixth-round pick Blair Walsh went 12-for-12 from 50 yards and beyond and made the Pro Bowl, including his first game where the Vikings actually played a really good game against the Jaguars, but then got hawked from behind by something called Cecil Shorts. yard touchdown from Blaine Gabbert to go ahead and ponder literally did the minimal publishable unit he like threw like a 30-yard pass that Devin Aroma should do and Blair Walsh came in and like nailed a 59 yarder to tie it or something and and then in overtime they won um opening day and it was like that was the confirmation um you know for everything I'll say this one i'll i'll back it up because i actually don't think i really i've always been a little cynical so maybe i never fell for that but i will

say here's one growing up in minnesota a timberwolves fan i'll tell you one remember when they when they uh they gave up five first round picks for signing Joe Smith under the table. Yes. Yes. And so the league took five first round picks away from me, a young kid who loves the wolves. And in year two of that, they drafted in the second round, Lauren Woods out of Arizona as a center to unseat. And we all hated Rasho.

So he was going to unseat Rasho. And I thought that this was going to be the one second round pick that actually contributed in the NBA. And I think Lauren Woods maybe made it one year in the Timberwolves. Okay. I've got a Timberwolves one too. So I started my media career in Rochester, New York, and the big team in Rochester, New York, even more popular, I think than the bills or like very, like closer than it should be is the Syracuse orange men's basketball team at the, at the time, like now they've just faded. They're not really relevant or good, but at the time they had been very good. They had gone to like final fours and they had

this great team when I was interning at a sports radio station and they had Johnny Flynn on this team and they played a six overtime game the night before I had to go in early for a morning show. So we had to watch the game and everything and talk about it. And Johnny Flynn was amazing in this game. He played like 79 minutes or something and everyone fell in love with him and all of rochester new york and syracuse was like johnny flynn is going to be the next great nba point guard and my take was no he isn't like don't just don't the guy couldn't shoot okay so like don't do not judge one great fun game and the guy was a good athlete but he he could not shoot the basketball. Then Steph Curry,

the final four was in Buffalo and Steph Curry went freaking bananas in Buffalo in front of everyone. And so my take was, if you pick Johnny Flynn over Steph Curry, I'm going to burn it all down. Like you are out of your mind. And then here we are. It's what, I mean, I've had plenty of bad ones. I've mentioned Josh Rosen on the show before. I've had bad ones. That's the best one I've ever had. It's like Steph Curry is going to be way better than Johnny Flynn. Johnny Flynn, famously. I can't remember which person was in charge of the Timberwolves at the time.

Maybe it was, was it Khan? David Khan. And he was saying, Johnny Flynn, great smile. That was always the joke. But they took not only one point guard saying Johnny Flynn, great smile. That was always the joke. But they took not only one point guard, Johnny Flynn, but two point guards, Ricky Rubio ahead of Steph Curry. But yeah. And that's why they're the losingest franchise in the history of the four

major men's professional sports. Yes. Yeah. So as we talk about the Vikings with an over under of eight and a half it's like well by timberwolf standards that'd be like one of their best seasons ever so uh anyway eric eager always the best man i listen to every single pff forecast with you and george shahuri you guys have had great guests jto sullivan was also great our buddy sage came on your show so if people don't listen to it and especially if you do like sports betting I would absolutely I don't understand fully usually some

of that part of it but uh I get a ton out of you guys podcasts so I really appreciate all of your time leading up to draft season and I guarantee we'll do it again after the draft I can't wait this is uh you know, this, this is my favorite place to consume Vikings content as well. It's so much fun. And this space is, you know, as much as Vikings fans, they're passionate about their teams. And I think you feel, you know, you do a great job of, of harnessing that. And obviously this week will be great, even though they only have the one pick the first two rounds, I think that they'll somehow find a way to make it memorable. That should be like on the stadium.

They'll find a way to make it memorable is exactly right. So thanks, Eric, for all of your time. And we'll talk to you again soon.