Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Eric Eager explains why he's betting the under on the 2020 Vikings

Episode Date: July 13, 2020

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Golden Goal. Soccer stars and the moments that made them. Premiering this summer on Blue Wire. Welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and he just made an appearance a couple weeks ago in which he opined about the greatness of camp league, and now he is back because Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus is now going to be in a position to spend the rest of the offseason defending himself and being owned by old takes exposed if things go a different way.

I'll tell you what I mean in a second. Eric, how are you? I'm doing well, man. I've just been back in Cincinnati here watching. I watched an old Vikings game today, and it was a, you know, as I joke with my friend, the Vikings never win any of these games that are on YouTube because they're like notable games. But Ampley did have 11 receptions in a playoff game against the Bears,

in which they lost to Crete Durham Hall's Steve Walsh. Underrated. I was just watching one today in which Shane Matthews beat them at the Metrodome in 1999. So I guess we were going along the same lines. I went out seeking great Leroy Horde highlights, and he had a 29-yard catch in that game. And then I watched the rest of the highlights,

and more low than high in that victory for Shane Matthews for Chicago. But the reason that you're returning so quickly is because on the PFF Forecast podcast, I was listening to, taking a long evening jog the other day, and you guys are running down some of the best bets of the year and uh for win loss totals for teams and i'm agreeing with you you know going down okay washington they could probably win more games than that and maybe detroit's one that could win more games than you think and you guys get to the vikings and uh you kind of let loose so much to the point where we have to play it here on the show.

I think the Vikings are going to be bad this year. And I, and I think they've, I think they have six and 10. I think they have great. I think you have six and 10 written all over them. I understand that their, their corners suck.

And so they had to get rid of them, but they still have to replace them. I also, I also think that they had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL a season ago. And if we look at our strength of schedule here, they have the fifth hardest schedule in the NFL this season, the hardest in that division. Kirk Cousins benefited a lot from being ahead. Kirk Cousins benefited a lot from early down success in play action,

things that aren't necessarily stable, especially with respect to game script. And they don't get to play Brandon Allen, David Blau, Matt Moore. They lost to Matt Moore, by the way. Chase Daniel. They lost to Chase Daniel, by the way. Aaron Rodgers should be improved from last season, a team that they lost to twice, including us five-and-a-half-point favorites at home with a chance to win the division.

And, you know, they have to play the NFC South, all four quarterbacks of which are better than Kirk Cousins. So, I like them under, and I... If there wasn't such a thing as limits, if there wasn't such a thing as limits, I might be on him a little bit more.

Oh, my gosh. Are you okay? Six and ten? Did they hurt me? Yeah, the answer is yes, they have. Right before that, did you watch Gary Anderson's kick? Oh, man. I mean, the Twitter meme that's been going around, like, you know,

describe your least favorite sports moment as, you know, simply as possible. Could it just be ball travels left for, like, all of Vikings Nation? All you need is the John Madden quote of, like, well, he hasn't missed one all year so he'll make this one right robert it's fine if robert smith runs out of bounds and keeps 40 seconds left on the clock because gary anderson's gonna make it a two-score game no problem whatsoever uh all right so you're going to have to explain yourself that's why you're here because uh when i initially went through and picked the schedule on scheduled release night, which was maybe 19 months ago is how it feels. I picked 10

and six, I went the exact opposite. And I do my picks, usually by what I think fair expectations are for the season when you go through like, should I expect the Vikings to beat Jacksonville? Yes, I should. W, should I expect them to beat, like, that's how I do it. And that's why every year reporters end up with more wins than losses, and someone does the article, ESPN's reporters ended up with more wins than losses, right? Because you put it for what the expectations are for that particular season, and guess what? A lot of teams come short of their expectations each year. But I want you first to explain this rant and tell me more about why you think that they're going 6-10 rather than 10-6.

And then I'm going to make you pick the schedule to prove that you actually think that they're going 6-10. All right? So first first explain. Well, when I look at, you know, everybody's coming off of like what they thought was a 10-6 team. And like I'm here to push back a little bit at that notion. I mean, you know, when you look at the Vikings a season ago, yes, they were 10-6, and you can throw away the last game and call them, you know, 10-5 if you want to.

But when you look at the team, like, so Atlanta's a mess, right? They lose to Green Bay. They beat Oakland. They lose to a backup quarterback in the Chicago Bears, right? They beat, pretty soundly on the road, a Giants team with their quarterback starting his third game in his career, right? Philadelphia is a mess, you know, as far as injuries are concerned. Detroit.

Washington had the combination of Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins, basically, in his second NFL game. Kansas City had Matt Moore. They lost to Matt Moore. The Dallas Cowboys outgained the Vikings by almost 100 yards on Sunday Night Football and lose because of a turnover

and also just like bad fourth down decisions and everything like that. That was a game they probably should have lost. They had a 20-point lead. They had a 20-point comeback against the Denver Broncos and Brandon Allen at US Bank Stadium. Lose to Seattle pretty handily.

They get to play David Blau. They get seven turnovers from the Chargers, a Chargers team that checks out. And then on Monday Night Football, they lost at home as five-and-a-half-point favorites with a chance to win the division to a Green Bay team that is 13-3 but not a 13-3 fundamentally. But look at that and I'm saying, okay, that's a 10-6 season,

but just to stay the same in 2020, they have to improve. And what have they done this offseason to improve under the circumstances of a short offseason, short training camp, new offensive coordinator, a lot of new coaches on the defensive staff, all that kind of stuff, while needing to break in three new starting corners, a guy to replace Everson Griffin, and replace their best player on offense in Stephon Diggs. Like, that's a really tricky, like, thing for me. And I think a lot of fans start at the idea of 10 and 6. And I push back and say, well well if they were to face the quarterbacks that they play this year you might even start that conversation at 8 and 8 and so

are they even as good as they were last year and even small thing here but their kicking was really good last year and that's not always a thing that you can rely on and has been a little problematic in the past but both their kicking and punting was excellent. They also lost some games that maybe they shouldn't have. I mean, Kansas City is one of them. A kicker has to do some crazy things in that game. Now, I know you lose to Matt Moore, and that might be your case for not as good as the record says, but also it was one of those, well, when you lose right at the end

because a guy kicks a couple of bomb field goals, you look at that one and go, well, that might kind of tip the scales. In Green Bay, they're about to win that game, and Kirk Cousins makes one really bad decision. But they should have split with Green Bay and won the game in Lambeau. I guess I look at it as on the offensive side, where you lose one particular weapon in Stephon Diggs, and it is a big loss, you also are gaining someone like Irv Smith going into his second year that could become very

valuable for them, and whatever Justin Jefferson can give you, and whatever B.C. Johnson can do in terms of growth, and whatever you might get from Tajay Sharp or a healthy Chad Beebe. Last year, it was basically Stephon Diggs and nobody else, nobody with experience that was able to step in there really at all. And Irv Smith was decent during that time, but now he's got a full season and everyone else is pretty much the same. The offensive line, I'd expect to be about the same, maybe a touch better if Garrett Bradbury takes a step forward, but it's a new offensive coordinator. Everyone's running the same exact offense, though. So you're going to have all the same benefits for Kirk Cousins that you had last year, with, in my opinion, more people to get the football to

because some of the younger players are established. And on the defensive side, I know it's new corners, but they can't be worse. They absolutely cannot be worse than what Xavier Rhodes, Trey Waynes gave them last year. And Mackenzie Alexander was average. But can Mike Hughes as a nickel corner not reproduce what Mackenzie Alexander did? He probably can. If they sign a veteran here, can they give him average play, which would be a huge jump from where Rhodes was? Can Jeff Gladney even look like an NFL player? That's probably a big gain. And keeping Anthony Harris is a huge deal toward this team continuing to be pretty good. If they had let go Anthony Harris, I would say this is really a

step back season. But you still have the best cover linebacker in the league, Eric Hendricks, the two best safety combination in the league. You still have one of the best pass rushers at under 25 years old in history, Daniel Hunter it's not like you lost a lot of things you couldn't replace Linval Joseph was at the end of his career last year Michael Pierce will probably be better and whatever they rotate in for pass rushing will probably be about the same so Everson I will give you is a big loss a lot of the other ones I look at and say yeah but you know they weren't exactly good when they were headed out the door. Yeah, I would also say, though, when you look at the, so when you look at their schedule

this season, you have two Aaron Rodgerses, two Matt Staffords, Rivers, Tannehill, who led the league in passing a season ago, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, who was second in the NFL and wins above replacement last year. Teddy Bridgewater, who is going to throw for 503 against them. Gardner Minshew, who's like it not, he's a plucky quarterback. You have Tom Brady and you have Drew Brees. Now, if you, again, you look at the schedule of quarterbacks they had last year, it was Rodgers twice and he beat them twice.

You know, Matt Ryan. Derek Carr is kind of a pumpkin. Chase Daniel, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz. You had Stafford once, and Stafford put up, you know, they gained 433 yards on them, you know, the one game they had Stafford. Then you had Keenum Haskins. Then you had Matt Moore. Then you had Dak, and Dak put up 443 yards on them.

Brandon Allen. Russ put up 444 on them, right, in terms of total yards. And then you had Blau, the corpse of Phillip Rivers, and then in week 17, you know, they faced Mitch Trubisky and lost, you know, because they were starting their backup. Like, it's a totally – I agree with you that those guys can come in and be better, but they need to be a lot better just to produce the same results because they're not facing junior varsity quarterbacks this year. Yeah, that's a good way to look at it. And the point of your whole podcast was best bets.

So I think that there is a difference between expectations that you set for a team based on what they've done in the offseason and where they are in their trajectory and their coaches and front office and quarterback and all those things versus if you're gambling. If you're gambling, you probably would weigh these things pretty heavily of what might regress. But I look at it through the reporter perspective of we set expectations before a season. That's how we decide whether the coach did a good job or whether they achieved what they set out to achieve. And I don't think that the expectation for this year, it's how we decide whether the coach did a good job or whether they achieved what they

set out to achieve. And I don't think that the expectation for this year, it's fair to say Super Bowl team because of all the changes that they've gone through. And if they don't have fans in U.S. Bank Stadium, that changes the math, I think, quite a bit. They have at U.S. Bank Stadium more interceptions on defense than touchdowns allowed. On the road, they have 20 more touchdowns than interceptions as a defense. At home, they're the best team at producing sacks since 2016. On the road, they're 20th. So there is a huge difference if you don't have those fans, if you don't have left tackles starting slower against your defensive ends,

if you don't have quarterbacks and offensive lines not on the same page for picking up Zimmer blitzes. I mean, if you don't have those advantages, could be different. And I think the whole COVID thing, if we even have a season, does throw off a lot of potential storylines or a lot of analysis even to say, well, how much was X or Y a factor? Hey, look, three teams quarterbacks got COVID on your schedule and you beat them all, right? And so, you know, we don't know how those things are going to go. But I understand it from the gambling perspective. I still think it's fair when you extend Kirk Cousins and you pay Anthony Harris.

Suppose they pay Delvin Cook as well. They paid out huge money to keep Anthony Barr. When you make these types of moves, and same goes for Kyle Rudolph, that they extended Kyle Rudolph to be on a team that was a winning team. And when you have this quarterback, if you were just going to hit the reset button and go six and 10, then I would say, well, then you don't want to extend Kirk Cousins necessarily, but they did. So I think it's fair to still set the bar of when you have a quarterback who should be able to get you nine to ten wins every year that he's your starting quarterback that's what you pay for

then that's where the bar should get set yeah I agree and I think that that's you know I agree with you that in a COVID situation because of home field advantage things are going to be smushed more towards eight wins for every single team as far as an expectation. That works against Minnesota. And, you know, but at the same time, it's not like, you know, Kirk had the best rapport with his receivers already. So if that goes down for other teams, it might help the Vikings because, you know, he's just kind of a plug-and-play guy. But, yeah, I mean, I obviously am pessimistic,

but, you know, I've seen a lot of this stuff happen. You know, to me, this kind of feels like a 2010 season for the Vikings. It feels like a 2011 season. If I'm looking at it the worst way possible where like, you know, you strip away a lot of the stuff around a player and, you know, like Kirk and back then it was like McNabb or far, but it was like, okay. Yeah. At a perfect circumstance,

we can expect great things out of this player. In these particular circumstances, what can we? And I think it's pretty obvious to say, like, since Kirk started playing in 2015 for Washington, this is the worst supporting cast he has. And even the offensive coordinator change, even if you look at it the rosiest way possible, which is it's just an extension of Kevin Stefanski, like it's still a change. And it's still the least amount of time he's had to prepare as an NFL quarterback for a season. So like all those things, like I agree that like in theory that those expectations should

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Whether this becomes his worst supporting cast or not, I think is really dependent on a couple of guys because that 2017 Washington supporting cast was bad. They had 25 different line combinations, whatever it was. Trent Williams was hurt. Brandon Treff was hurt. You had Josh Doxson was one of your top hurt. Brandon Treff was hurt. You had Josh Doxon was one of your top receivers. He couldn't make the Vikings. I mean, think about that. Like

they signed him. He stuck around for a couple of weeks, got hurt. And once he was done getting hurt, I think he got into one game and then they just got rid of him. And as far as I know, I mean, he might've signed somewhere, but this is not a guy who's really considered an NFL wide receiver. He's in the Treadwell category. And that was- wide receiver. He's in the Treadwell category. And that was – You never want to be in the Treadwell category. You never do. No, you do not. So we should – that's a life thing you could say.

It's just like, well, that brand of pizza is in the Treadwell category. Just like, you know, that person's podcast is a Treadwell category podcast. Anyway, so. Wait, they kept you on for way too long and added no value? Yeah, right. There are, yeah, that would probably be the specific outline. But you were convinced that you were good the whole time. Like Laquan Treadwell said, he could be a 100-catch wide receiver

after the 2018 seasons, like in the XFL, I guess, maybe, but probably still not because even some of those guys are fast. As a total aside, that was one of his top receivers in 2017. So even having Adam Thielen makes that better. But if what I project to happen with Irv Smith does not happen, it's not a great offense. If what I project for Garrett Bradbury is that he could be an average, maybe pass protector, going from about the worst in the league to beefing up, getting stronger, understanding how to face some of these big guys like Eddie Goldman, you know, and Akeem Hicks and Kenny Clark.

But if he can't figure that out and he just gets smoked like he did last year, well, you know, then yeah, it's going to be a lot of the same results against teams that are a little bit harder. They did have, I remember looking this up on Pro Football Reference, that it was the eighth easiest schedule in terms of their strength of schedule metric that the Vikings have ever had in their entire team history last year. So that is worth looking at for sure. But just to prove that you actually think that they're going 6-10, I'm going to have you pick the schedule because I think when you start picking it, this gets harder, okay?

So let's start right off here. U.S. Bank Stadium where Aaron Rodgers struggles against the – It's actually not that hard. I've done – so, okay, give them the win against Green Bay on opening day. They're three-and-a-half point favorites. I still think – I think I've put a sizable bet on Green Bay plus three-and-a-half. But let's go ahead and go win for the Vikings at home against Green Bay week one. Okay, so everyone is jacked.

Super Bowl contenders, you beat Green Bay. Everyone's feeling great about this Vikings season. Nobody got COVID. Okay, we beat Green Bay. Everyone's feeling great about this Vikings season. Nobody got COVID. Okay, we're going forward. And you have to travel to Indianapolis and whatever is left of Phillip Rivers. And let's just keep in mind what they did to Phillip Rivers last year, I'm just saying. Yeah, that's a loss.

I mean, the Vikings on the road, but also, you know, Indianapolis has some pretty good weapons in T.Y. Hilton. Jonathan Taylor, if they get ahead, the Vikings have always had a small defense. And I think, you know, if they get behind in a game like that, they'll probably be out physical. And Indianapolis is building a defense that I think is a lot better than people realize and better than the one the Vikings have. Okay.

Now allow me, because I'm going to push back on some of these. Xavier Rhodes, is he not a starter at this moment for the Indianapolis Colts at cornerback? Yeah, but I will come back and say, who's the Vikings' number two wide receiver? Is it a rookie that's played five snaps outside of the slot in 2019 for LSU? I mean, it's a weakness against a weakness thing in that circumstance, yeah. It is really hard to project what Justin Jefferson is going to be.

His performance last year for LSU is super exciting, but so was Laquan Treadwell's at Ole Miss. Plus Indianapolis plays a lot more zone defense, which I think Rhodes can probably eke a couple more years out of it, a la what Josh Norman's probably going to do in Buffalo. All right, so they come back home. You've got them at 1-1, and they're going to face the regression Tannehills in Tennessee.

Yeah, they're going to lose that game too for the same reason. They're going to lose that game because Tennessee is better. I hesitate to find a part of the football field where the Vikings are worse than the Titans. I'm sorry, better than the Titans. Unless Tannehill plays like the last time he was in Minnesota, where he was very confused and things went really badly for him. But Adam Gase was his coach.

Adam Gase. I mean, Tennessee is better on the offensive line. They're probably equal on the defensive line, maybe a little worse. That's an area I'll concede. Linebacker doesn't matter that much. They're a lot better in the secondary, especially, I mean, Kevin Byard is in the same class as Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, and they actually have corners.

And then on offense, A.J. Brown is a really good player. Corey Davis is a top-five pick. Adam Humphreys is a good slot player. And then, of course, again, with a lot of these situations, if they get behind, Derek Henry running against their smallish defense I think will be a tough one to overcome. All right, so you've got them 1-2. The freakout has begun.

The rumors of Mike Zimmer's demise have started. And they head down to Houston to face off with Deshaun Watson who does not have his number one wide receiver anymore DeAndre Hopkins yes but he's still better than Kirk and Houston so for me here it's the road game situation it's I think Bill O'Brien's underrated as a coach not necessarily a, and by then all the hay will be in the barn. Houston does have Kenny Stills. Houston's still better at wide receiver than the Vikings. They have Kenny Stills, they have Will Fuller, and they have Brandon Cooks.

All three players would start in Minnesota. They have a couple good tight ends. Their offensive line is much improved, and Watson does a better job of protecting them last season. And their defense will have J.J. Watt healthy for the first time. You know, he barely played last season after about week six or seven. So that's a W for Houston, and the Vikings start at one and three. Wow.

This one I actually agree with you on. I mean, Deshaun Watson, I'm going to pick him over Kirk in any game. And you would be surprised that of all the teams in the NFL, the biggest home field advantage in terms of point differential actually goes to the Houston Texans, which we would not have thought of. We would have thought that'd be like Seattle or New Orleans, but it's actually Houston has been the most impressive team at home since 2016. Partly, I'm sure, because their quarterback is great.

Well, now they go to Seattle, and this always goes super well. I mean, just no problems that I can think of, Vikings against Seattle. Everything is fine. Kickers perform as they're supposed to. There's no strange bounces or blown coverages or teams running suddenly for 200 yards against you. Everything's fine. So that's got to be a win.

Yeah, the last time they won in Seattle, I think Brad Johnson was the quarterback. And I'm just, yeah, they're going to have to show me that they can win in Seattle before I believe it. Seattle is not very good defensively, but they don't like to play nickel, and the Vikings don't like to play nickel on offense. They like to go 21 and stuff. So they sort of play into Seattle's hands on offense. They have two wide receivers that are very good.

And, again, like I said, the Vikings struggle, you know, at the corner position. So I'm going to go with Russell Wilson and the Vikings starting one and four here after five games. Seattle all of a sudden has a great group of receiving weapons, by the way. Like they didn't, and then now they kind of do. That one is, again, that one's hard to completely disagree with. I guess when I initially filled it out, I had some sort of split between Houston and Seattle. Maybe I had them beating Seattle for the first time in history. But one and four,

if we're talking about one and four, then the heat is on Mike Zimmer. It's possible he's not the coach anymore. If he doesn't sign a contract extension in the next several weeks and they start one and four, that might be it. It might be Koob's coaching the rest of the way for the Vikings. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. Now, I can see a lot of these results going either way, the Colts, the Titans, but those last two games against the Texans and Seahawks, I think you hope to split. Now, this one, home against the Atlanta Falcons,

judging by how it went last time they faced the Atlanta Falcons, where they pretty much just beat their faces in, I mean, this one has got to be a win. Yeah, I had this one as a W. I can totally, you know, you can say what you want about Indy, Tennessee, Houston, Seattle. You know, they could split those games. But Atlanta could come in here and win too. I mean, last season I think Atlanta was a lot worse personnel-wise,

and they were only four-and-a-half point underdogs on opening day, which means that on a neutral field,nesota would be get basically get a point or two um so i i will say the vikings win here um but again as on you know people can poke holes in the last four losses but they i can poke a ton of holes into this projected win too two and four you have them after facing atlanta with a chance to have the most oppo viking season that ever happens usually they start off five and oh or six and one and then they fall apart but they still have an opportunity uh they go down to green bay november 1st it's not that chilly in green bay november 1st kirk has been really good and then really bad as a viking at

lambeau i mean couldn't have been much better in the first game that he ever played against the Packers, 420-something yards. And then last year was – might have been his lowest graded PFF performance of possibly his entire career in that game against Green Bay. So what do we got here? Yeah, I had them with a loss in Lambeau. I think they've won there, what, once? 2017 they won there.

2015 they won there. 2017 was Brett Hundley, I think. Brett Hundley, yeah. 15 was Bridgewater, you know, winning the NFC North there in a road matchup in Week 17. It hasn't been the greatest there. I could see it going either way. Obviously, I'm predicting a split here, but I could see a sweep on either side.

I just don't think that this Viking squad is good enough to predict a sweep against them. Two and five after a loss to the Packers. So if Zimmer had a chance to save his job after the win against the Falcons, he lost it right there. Because if one thing is clear, it really agitates the ownership when they lose to the Green Bay Packers. Last year, remember, after the Packers lost, that was when ownership had to eventually come out and say, we're not firing our general manager and coach. And I still think that if they had lost by 30 points in New Orleans that we would be talking about maybe Koobes as the head coach at this point,

or Stefanski. Stefanski probably would have been the head coach. All right, so they face the Lions for the first time in November 8th, which means that the Lions at this point are either real good and everyone's surprised or absolutely terrible, and Matt Patricia is no longer their coach yeah and I'm gonna I'm gonna say that they beat Detroit here at home in their eighth game um but again like you said they could be the the talk of the town at this

point we were talking off air about this the 2016 Detroit team and this is kind of right around where they faced them that year and that Detroit team was good and and you know we've seen Detroit come into US Bank Stadium and win early season mid-season games a number of times so uh well I'm going to predict a win here and the Vikings going to what would be three and five at the turn um I you know again this isn't one where I'm saying oh this is a slam dunk uh maybe like a couple games below that. Okay, write down this idea because it just popped into my head, and I want to say it somewhere on the record. Five most bizarre games in the Zimmer era. That one in 2016 against the Lions might be number one.

Just super strange. That was after they fired Norv Turner. Ronnie Hillman, I think, is the running back in that game. It ends up with a couple of big plays. Who would have predicted a reverse to Rhett Ellison to put them ahead late and then Matt Prater kicking it from, I don't know, the target field to end up tying that game at the very end. I remember looking at the expected points added or the win probability

when Stafford got the ball back after the Red Ellison touchdown it was like 0.3 percent and he ends up completing a 40-yard pass to Andre Roberts it's just like what and that is uh always a possibility so you've got them at three and six at this point and they're headed to Chicago where once again things always go totally fine there are I can't remember any issues at Soldier Field now this is one that I'll tell you no matter who you are no matter you could be the most optimistic Vikings fan ever and you pick 15 and one every year but one is the loss at Soldier Field nobody could be drinking enough purple Kool-Aid to not pick a loss at Soldier Field, at least that one L against the Bears every year.

Yeah, I mean, let me help everybody here as far as understanding what's going to happen. Because in 99, as you said, it was Shane Matthews. 2001, it was Jim Miller and Cade McNown. 2002, I want to say it was jim miller again um oh three it was chad hutchinson oh four it was no oh three it was it was rex grossman's first start they lost to them oh four it was chad hutchinson oh five it was rookie kyle orton who had like a 60 passer rating um god i'm trying to think of even more uh Rick Myra beat them I think as a member of the Bears once uh and then all the way up to last and then they lost to

Cutler a bunch of times um and then it got all the way to the point where last season they lost to Chase Daniel okay so this is I I don't care what purple and gold color glasses you're wearing. This is a loss. I'm sorry. Well, the game in 2016 is another one that was just out of this world. I mean, a 70-yard run, I think, to start the game from Jordan Howard, and that was when the Bears could not have been lower. It just could not have been worse. Jay Cutler was playing horribly.

They were about to fire John Fox. Everything was going down. Josh McCown beat them at the Metrodome in 2011 when he was two weeks removed from being a high school math teacher. The Bears, I mean, the one thing the Vikings do not do is sweep Chicago, unless Teddy's the quarterback. So we're moving on from that game. So I believe now it's 3-6, and then they get a home game against Dallas. Yeah, which I would assume, since everyone is high on Dallas, and I think rightfully so, that you are going to pick this national TV game at 325 as an L for the Vikings. Except for left defensive end and safety,

Dallas is better than Minnesota in every position. So it's not going to be – that's a home loss I'm going to go with here. So they have two home losses, one to Tennessee and one to Dallas. So they're 3-7. 3-7. Got to run the table to get the seventh playoff spot. That's the seventh playoff spot. The in-the-hunt graphics this year are going to be preposterous

with teams that are three and seven. They're like, well, they're still in the hunt. All right, well, now they do go into an easier stretch here of Panthers and Jaguars. You think, but if Teddy Bridgewater is still starting for the Panthers in their 11th game. I'm just kidding. I have them going with a win against Carolina,

and only because I'm trying to be as fair as possible. I do think Teddy beats them. And I do think it's embarrassing. And I do think – and to the point where I think Bridgewater has kind of a milquetoast season, you know, seven yards for pass attempt, lowest eight out in the league. And then against Minnesota, he pulls out the deep ball and just trolls them for an entire game. Even one time, Kyle Rudolph acknowledged that once a year,

they have a loss that just makes no sense whatsoever. And last year, it was this close to being the Broncos game. And they end up, you know, pulling it out at the end, only because Brandon Allen couldn't get the ball to Noah Fant in the end zone at the very last play. Yeah, Jaron Kirst, by the way, not on the Vikings anymore. The player that broke up the last pass of the game. It's true.

Jaron had a huge impact in the 2019 season. But he did make that play. That is one win above replacement. That's how it works, right? But the Teddy thing is the ultimate karma game. It's just like, of course. 2016, it was the game against the Colts where Adrian tried to come back. And he announced it on his XM radio show or whatever, and then they complete no-show.

2018 is Josh Allen jumping over Anthony Barr in one of the just, like, most miserable. 2017, it was their loss at home to the Detroit Lions. It was a 14-7 or something. Yep, Delvin Cook tears his ACL. The Panthers game is that. Funny, they went 11-1 after Cook got hurt. Oh, that's another

podcast or eight this offseason, just what's going on there. So this puts them at four and seven. And then they play Jacksonville. They go five and seven. I think they beat Jacksonville. Jacksonville's an interesting team in that they're

the opposite. So Carolina and Jacksonville are two teams that are rebuilding. Carolina and Jacksonville are doingville's an interesting team in that they're the opposite of the... So Carolina and Jacksonville are two teams that are rebuilding. Carolina and Jacksonville are doing it in opposite ways. The Panthers went and got kind of down the middle quarterback and drafted all defense. And all defense in sort of safe

positions like defensive tackle and safety and stuff. Jacksonville said, no, no, we're going to start a quarterback who's in the second year, could go either way. We're going to take LaVisca Chenault, who's either, you know, a blow-up candidate, right, and then C.J. Henderson. Like, Jacksonville could actually be good. But at this point in time, I'm going to claim that, you know,

your guy Doug marone's probably fired by now yeah um so so they they win and go to five and seven which if you remember the old one vikings team you remember literally every bad vikings team the 2010 team this is where we're like okay if we run the table here we got a shot at nine and seven and we're gonna win hey before we get back to the conversation want to remind you that sports are coming back, and so are your chances to bet on your favorite teams and events. There's no better place to start than our exclusive partners, BetOnline. Get in on the action for this week's big UFC fight,

or check out odds on NASCAR, Formula 1, and the Premier League. Can't wait for your favorite team to come back. BetOnline has future odds on win totals, division winners, and even league championships. Or check out our daily simulations of Madden NBA 2K to watch and wager on. Visit BetOnline.ag. Use the promo code BLUEWIRE to receive your new welcome bonus. That's promo code BLUEWIRE. BetOnline, your online wagering experts experts but running the table becomes extremely difficult because they go from pounding Gardner Minshew's face in against the Jaguars to at Buccaneers the only

shot you might have here is if Tom Brady is truly completely washed and so is Rob Gronkowski and at this point either neither one of them are playing because they're bad or injured, or it just went awful for them, and everything that we hyped up in the offseason didn't come to fruition. That does happen from time to time. That would be the only way you pick a win here, but I'm going to assume that you are not picking a win here. Nope. Three of the last four on the road, And even though two of them are in a dome and one of them is in a nice weather stadium, I'm going to pick a loss at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is not only better than the Vikings on offense, especially the skill positions, but they're better than the Vikings on defense. And that is a really good testament to how good Todd Bowles is

as a coordinator. So I'm going to go Tampa here. So that moves them down to five and eight. Yep. Under their win total. Just real quick on the Tampa Bay defense point. Never has there ever been a defense that performed better and had worse total points against than Tampa last year. But Jameis Winston throwing interceptions every other drive hurt them a lot. So just want to throw in that side note.

They were a top-ten team in expected points allowed, top-ten team in yards per play allowed. They were the best run defense in the NFL. I believe maybe the Jets overtook them at the end. But they were a very good defense, and it's a product of drafting a lot of players on that side of the ball and hoping that – and then putting a good defensive coordinator, which, you know, as Vikings fans would know, the defensive play caller is the most important person on a defense.

So they're hitting the under here, which, you know, I think is, again, from a gambling perspective, I think it's totally fair to say you have to get 10 wins to get paid. I don't know. That seems like a lot or only whatever number of chance, 30%, 40% chance at best of that happening. So you would predict that. But at the end of the season here, they still, with the seven playoff teams, could be in the race. There's a lot of mediocrity in the NFC. and they've got the Bears, the Saints, and the Lions. The way that I

look at this is, the Bears will be a win for the Vikings at home, because the Bears will be a mess by then, and Matt Nagy might not have his job. The Saints could go either way, just like the Bucs, when it's an old, old, old quarterback. You don't know when the guy's going to fall off. And last year, Breeze couldn't get it 14 yards down the field with his arm. And they beat them in New Orleans last year. And then Lions week 17. So this is like major swing could go sneak into the playoffs and everyone feels like, wow, look for 2021 Super Bowl. Or the opposite could happen, and Nick Foles is suddenly great back with his RPO master, John DeFilippo, who's their quarterback coach. And Breeze is great again, and they beat them in New Orleans. Or, you know, Stafford has got the Lions winning the division. This is one

that's extremely hard to project for me, because all three of those teams, you could kind of talk yourself into one way or the other. Yeah, I mean, the way that I look at it with Detroit is, you know, we could say a lot of bad things about Matt Patricia, but one of the things that's really interesting is that in week 17 last year, the Packers had to win to secure the two-seed and a bye. They were starting their third-string quarterback. They had nothing to play for. And they,

they basically, they led for that homeless the whole game. Like they played hard and, you know, it was in Ford field, all that kind of stuff. Like I, I can tell.

Yeah, I'm with you. Like if this, if this season for the Vikings turns out like 2017 and they have, you know, it's a Cinderella type year then yeah like New Orleans is is gonna hit the skids Tampa Bay is gonna hit the skids and it's gonna be like 2017 where it's like oh look all these teams that we thought were hard at the beginning of the year like the Bengals are

just gonna come in and lay down right like you know how that was but looking at it now you have to think to yourself okay well Tampa Bay is in it for the long haul. Brady doesn't get hurt. He might not play as well, but that support is so much better than it was in New England that it's probably going to still be a really tough game for the Vikings. Chicago could go either way, but, you know, obviously I think that one's the most likely to be a win for them. But then at Detroit, it's always tough, especially when the quarterback is good. And then, then obviously at New Orleans, New Orleans is not just a Drew Brees team. If you look at their defense, I think it's

very, very good and very well. You know, Malcolm Jenkins coming over to Mario Davis is already awesome. You know, Cam Jordan, all that kind of stuff. So I think that they're a team to be reckoned with and that's how they get to six and 10. You know what I mean? You look at this and you're thinking to yourself, okay, you know, I wasn't actually that negative. I gave them wins at home against Aaron Rodgers, a win at home against Matt Ryan, who, you know, if things turn out well for him, he could go to the Hall of Fame someday. I gave them a win at home against Teddy, right,

which is probably not going to happen. And, you know, you know what I'm saying? And, like, they split the division. Sure, the Tennessee loss is a little aggressive, but the Tennessee Titans were in the AFC championship game last year. And then the Dallas loss at home is a little aggressive, but Dallas is considered the top five team in the NFL right now. So, I don't know.

What do you think? Well, I think that there are five or so games on here where if someone else was on this Zoom call with us and said that you're going to be the person that argues to the death that the Vikings will win whatever game, that they could make a pretty good case for it. I mean, if you go back and look at it the same way and say, okay, the Titans beating the Vikings, I understand they have a better team, but will they really if Tannehill regresses? Or if you look at the Falcons and what they did to them last year, they beat their faces in last year, and they could probably do the same thing again.

The Colts one is where I might have, even though I do believe the Colts are a better team, the most pushback, because I just think there's nothing left of Phil Rivers. And he's also got a short offseason. He's living in Tampa. I mean, like, how is this working with Philip Rivers? And they demolished him last year, and he threw like push back on and make a pretty good case that they're going to win. And then there are other ones that they're going to have to win where they're not the favorite. And that's what I was going to ask you is how many games do you think out of the 16-game schedule they will be the favorite? Good question. I know that they're two – I've looked already. I know that they're underdogs in Indianapolis.

I think they'll be underdogs in Houston. I do think that they'll be favored against Tennessee. They already are favored against Green Bay at home. I mean, I think there are numbers for these in every book, but I would say they might be favorites in Chicago. I think it depends. So hard to predict. So of the games that I have them losing, they're probably –

they might be favorites at Detroit they they're probably favorites at home against Tennessee uh home yeah yeah so they're probably favorite in eight games nine games maybe which is probably why you see their win total at nine. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, so again, that's, that's, you know, when I look at things, when you, when you bet season win totals, you think about, you know, more things can go wrong than go right. You know, and especially with a team like the Vikings that needs so many things to go right to be a competent football team. I'm just going to take the other side of that.

One thing with this, when you're trying to pick it is, I mean, there are a lot of NFL teams that could go whichever way the wind blows. You know, their quarterback is out for four games with COVID and all of a sudden they're bad. Or their quarterback is healthy the whole season and they have a defense that picks off a bunch of passes from other teams' backup quarterbacks, you know, that kind of thing. So it's one of the fun parts about football is that

you never really know with these teams that you could plant at eight and eight and then say, well, you could easily win two more or you could easily win two fewer. I see this team as that kind of thing. But part of it that sticks me at eight and eight if it goes bad and not all the way to six and ten is just who Kirk Cousins is. Like when you have a great team, Kirk Cousins goes 10-6. When you have a terrible team, like the 2017 Washington squad, whatever they're called now, you are still 7-9. It's like, you know that there will be these games that Cousins has where he's just terrific, and he throws for 360 yards or something, and they win, and he's just terrific and he throws for 360 yards or something and they win and he's great and you go like, wow, look at that thing.

And then there will be these other games where he comes apart and the better team wins. He doesn't pull an upset or something. But just he is a quarterback that gets you to a certain floor, and I think that that floor is a little higher than 6-10. Yeah, that's fair um that's fair uh i i mostly say six and ten to try to get people going but i think it's completely plausible as i showed right now yeah every um every fan base is mad at you when you pick the under and uh it's part of the fun of the podcast well this uh debate session

i think if we could call it that over where the vikings will's part of the fun of the the podcast well this uh debate session i think if we could call it that over where the vikings will finish was plenty of fun and i will just say on every podcast hopefully we get to find out yeah yeah for sure yeah um eric this was uh this was lots of fun um and throughout the season we will continue to go back and revisit this conversation and see who was right about these. Let's just hope it's one in four, not oh and five. What's the difference? Yeah.

Why? Well, I mean, look, I think I'm being positive by giving them a win against Green Bay. Oh, I see. They could be oh and five going home to Atlanta. Oh, I look forward to your mentions after this podcast. It's going to be great. So anyway, well, there's lots of fun to debate you on this, and I wish you more fun rants on the PFF Forecast podcast.

It actually is, if you're a gambler on the NFL, really, really helpful with a lot of teams that could hit the over or under this year. And we will do it again many times throughout this season at PFF underscore Eric on Twitter. Thanks for your time, man. Thanks for having me on.