Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Eric Eager talks about what receiver extensions mean for Justin Jefferson's future

Episode Date: April 8, 2022

Matthew Coller connects with Pro Football Focus's Eric Eager to discuss what Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill's recent extensions mean for the future of Justin Jefferson. How does the Vikings' timeline match up with paying him? What can they do to make him want to be a Viking for a long time? Should they draft an insurance receiver this year? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to a very special episode of the Purple Insider Podcast in which Pro Football Focus' Eric Eager is at the airport and decided he had nothing better to do than to do a podcast with me. Eric, you are going to Hungary, right? I am both hungry and going to Hungary today. And yeah, I'm kind of excited. It's my sister's wedding this weekend. She lives there.

So I'm going to be out of the country for the first time in a few years, which will be great. I'm currently sitting in like legit a phone booth, which is kind of funny. And I'm ready to talk some purple because this off season has been something else. Can you explain why your sister lives in Hungary?

She got a teaching job there like out of college and it took her a little bit longer to go through college. So it was sort of like a little bit of that. I've never met the guy that she's marrying because she met him like during the pandemic. And, you know, like some of the more European countries, I think, had more of a more restrictions than we did in the States as far as travel. So, yeah, that that's that's basically it. I mean i'm excited though for uh you know to sort of get away for a little bit and uh enjoy my family well that's fun and if you don't like him you don't have to talk to him he's in hungary so you probably won't see him for uh quite some time uh but that's that's very cool enjoy that and uh hopefully your travel goes well but since you're bored and doing

nothing else, how about we talk about wide receivers, Justin Jefferson and the future of the Vikings? We might as well, right? Now, so Stefan Diggs signed a huge contract extension. Tyreek Hill and Devante Adams have made a bunch of money. So why don't we talk a little bit about Justin Jefferson and his future and what it means that all these wide

receivers prices are absolutely exploding. I mean, does this mean that just the Jefferson is going to ask for $25 million a year after this season? What does that mean? Yeah, I think, um, well, cause after your third year year you obviously are able to he's on cost control for the first three years no questions asked and um you know after that he can ask for basically whatever he wants and and that's where it gets tricky for the vikings right because you look and i posted this on on my twitter account justin jefferson's been the third most valuable player at the wide receiver position the last two years in the NFL. And, you know, there's sort of a way to kind of get to sort of what this value ends up looking like. But, you know, he's very much sort of in that, you know, after inflation and things like that, he's going to be a $30 million player.

The question becomes for this team, are they able to pony that money up in the 2023 offseason? Because it looks like 2024 is very open in both good and bad ways for this team, but 2023 is not. 2023, they've kicked the can down the road on a number of players to the point where they're either going to have to kick the can down the road to extend Jefferson, or because it's not even his fifth-year option year. It is not cap relief to extend him unless you have a very back-loaded deal. So they're going to either have to kick the can down the road on guys they've already kicked the can down the road on, or they're going to have to, you know, sort of be extremely tight up against the cap, which I can't imagine a player of Justin Jefferson's caliber on a team that's

been 15 and 18 the last two years is really going to want to, you know, sign up for, you know, a team that may or may not be contending, uh, you know, uh, for the fourth consecutive year of his career. Well, and so there's a bunch of different ways that we could go, uh, off what you just said there, but that's one of them is I think that it's right when people say that Jefferson has to be at the center of the consideration of the Vikings when they're making their long-term plans, i.e. their, their windows and when they think they're going to win. Um, and that maybe this year, part of the reason that they want to do a competitive rebuild, although if I'm Jefferson,

I don't like hearing the word rebuild, but the competitive part. Okay. So you want to get back in the playoffs and you want to be able to say to Justin Jefferson, see, we're in the playoffs. This is a place you want to stay. We got a long-term plan. How about you sign this very reasonable extension? I think that it does matter, but maybe not in the way that we think. Justin Jefferson is a guy who really loves the fact that he won a championship in college. Like he brings it up all the time. And I guess I just wonder if Justin Jefferson is going to be okay with nine and eight and not a whole lot of changes the next year. Like, what do you have to do to keep him happy? I think is a total fair part of this conversation. I know that there are people who look at, you know, things like this and say, I remember back in my day when the players

did what they were told to do or something like, which, you know, yeah. Okay. That's how it was. That's certainly not how it is now. Um, especially with players his age. So I guess I wonder your opinion on what, what should be considered from the Vikings direction or if at all around Justin Jefferson. Yeah. And there are people who think just because stephon diggs you know left because he was unhappy with targets that throwing the ball to justin jefferson the most in the nfl would assuage him but like that doesn't you know these are two different situations the wide receivers can be unhappy for a number of different reasons i think it's instructive uh by the way, that when Kirk Cousins got his contract extension,

a number of Vikings tweeted out their appreciation for that move. Justin Jefferson was not one of those players. So there's a number of different reasons he could be unhappy. And I think the biggest one is there's a few outs for this team, right? Kevin O'Connell could be the next coming of Sean McVay. Kweisi Adopamensa could be, you know, the second coming of one of these, you know, great general managers. And that can lift the Vikings out of the sort of miry clay they've been in for the last, you know, ever, basically. But especially in the zimmer

spielman era and especially the cousins era um and so those things can make justin jefferson happy but the hardest part and i think that this is where the tyree kill thing matters the davante adams thing matters um the stephan diggs thing matters to some extent is anytime that you think as a franchise that you have control over a player um you don't anymore like the chiefs thought they could nestle tyree kill into a 21 22 million dollar you know sort of apy deal and continue this sort of uh championship caliber you know sort of run that they've been on. And ultimately, things beyond their control got in their way, and they had to move on from Tyreek Hill. And frankly, given the price, I think it was the right move for them.

You know, the Vikings might think that $30 million is the price for Jefferson, and they might think that putting a good, a pretty good, not elite, but pretty good quarterback and a good offensive coordinator into, you know, the head coaching position will be enough for Jefferson. But like, there's a lot of uncertainty there. And there's a lot of starring from, you know, again, winning 15 out of 33 games the last two years. And frankly, 13 out of 31 games that mattered, right.

They have two wins in the final week of the season that were inconsequential to anything um you know not starting him right away in 2020 not throwing him the ball to get him the record in week 18 of 2022 or 2021 i'm sorry like all those things like whether or not it's rational for him to be upset about those things doesn't really matter right because if he wants to leave there there's nothing really they can do about it, right? So that's, I think, where you're really nervous if you're the Minnesota Vikings because I think when you look at this roster, it's certainly a roster that's good enough to win, you know,

eight and a half games per 1,000 simulations or 10,000 simulations. But without Jefferson, I think you lose a lot of that tail, a lot of that upside. And a lot of that like, oh, if we do X, Y, and Z right, and all the bets hit, we could be a Super Bowl contender. That all goes away, in my opinion, if Justin Jefferson's not a part of the plan. Okay, so how valuable are receivers is, I I think a question we have to start answering or asking. Don't we? Because when you're getting to these prices that are approaching what quarterbacks make, then we have to look around and go, all right.

So if down the road, and I'm not saying dump just the Jefferson, though, I have gotten this question of, Hey, would you just like trade him now for two firsts and then draft two wide receivers and go from there and try to get value? I do not think that that is a good idea at all, unless you're sure, unless he is sort of leaked behind the scenes. There's no way I ever stay with the Vikings, but I think we're a far way away from that. We're just sort of approaching a different universe with wide receivers than maybe we've ever been before. And I guess I wonder, are they exceeding what their real value is in terms of price? Or is this is 25 mil a year? What a wide receiver, a great wide receiver today's game is

actually worth. Well, and I think that that's the, that's fundamental to all the Vikings questions. I know a lot of people on social media don't really want to discuss this because I get it that it's complicated, right? Like, you want to say, oh, look, the Vikings have the seventh or eighth best quarterback in the NFL. That should be enough. And it's like, well, actually, there's a whole other variable there. They have the third best wide receiver in the NFL.

And it's like, well, yeah, but there's a whole other variable there. And I think in the NFL. And it's like, well, yeah, but there's a whole nother variable there. And, you know, and I think, you know, in the case of the Vikings, like, I think it's troubling a little bit that they have a pretty good quarterback and a the third best wide receiver in the NFL on rookie money. And that offense is still kind of middle of the pack, right? I think that that's what the hope of Kevin O'Connell is, is it's finally going to emerge. The hard part with wide receiver play is I think one elite wide receiver can really get you to sort of out of one group of teams and into another group. I don't think he can jump you two groups, if that makes sense. So, you know, I think of Tyreek Hill this way with Kansas City. He took that team with Alex Smith at quarterback from a team that was sort of like a 10-win team to a 12-win team.

He was able to help them sort of get Patrick Mahomes up to speed. But ultimately now, they can't get any further with Tyreek Hill, right? They have to sort of, you know, take that wide receiver group and make it sort of more spread out, more resilient to coverages and things like that. Like, that's part of the research that I've done about secondary receivers. I think Justin Jefferson and before him, Stephon Diggs, could get this Vikings offense from, you know, basically the worst. Like, you know, Kirk Cousins gives you a floor,

but, like, they haven't seen that floor yet. I think having an elite wide receiver all the time puts you in that sort of median to above average part with Kirk Cousins. And not having a third, and we did see this with K.J. Osborne a little bit last year, but not really having a consistent third option because of Thielen's injuries or ineffectiveness or until this year not having a consistent third option because of feelings, injuries, or ineffectiveness, or, you know, until this year not having a third target, like has really kept this offense sort of in that middle of the pack maybe,

and not necessarily in that sort of elite category. And that to me, that's where the wide receiver play thing gets tricky. Elite guys are probably worth $30 million to some teams, but they're probably in the case of the chiefs and weirdly in the case of the Packers, especially given their salary cap with the quarterback that they have are probably not worth it for teams like that. So that brings me to a whole other question,

which is very much related wide receiver in the draft. Should it be a wide receiver at the 12th overall pick because i think there are some very intriguing guys there i mean drake london um you know to go along with garrett wilson chris alave kind of is like pick your choice of which type of receiver you want with those guys and the upside of a lot of these receivers who have been taken in recent drafts whether it's cd lamb or it's justin jefferson i'm not saying every single one of them works out but there appears to be a higher hit rate or an increasing hit rate that might be small sample i'm not sure but i also

think it could be the training of wide receivers that starts at a very young age and also offenses getting smarter about how they use wide receivers. So as the Vikings go into this draft, it would stand to reason for me that not only would you be picking a Chris Olave for your number three slash number four wide receiver this year. Also, if Adam Thielen gets hurt this year, which he has in two of the last three seasons, but also as long-term insurance, just in case you run into that situation with Justin Jefferson, where he does want to go somewhere else. And what we also realized too is like you said, like Tyreek Hill is, is going somewhere else. I mean, this is somebody

who's been on teams that have gone to the Superbowl and still was totally comfortable with being out. And I think with Justin Jefferson, there's a lot of ideas of, well, if you just do this or if you make sure that he's got his catches or if you do this or do that. And I think the answer is there's no like, here's the model for how you make someone happy

with their situation or here's the model for how you make sure that they get the absolute most money because that's not what's always important. Uh, we're seeing coaches all over college sports complaining incessantly about this portal and about how players are transferring. You're like, look, I mean, I think it's, it can be an indictment on a program sometimes, but sometimes it's just a matter of somebody wanting something different in their life. And you don't know that that's going to be the answer. So you try to get

as much out of jefferson as you want but there's no guarantee that he decides what he wants is to be here forever so my point is draft wide receiver at number 12 yeah yeah that's that's and you think about um yeah i think the issue if you're a v Vikings fan, with taking a wide receiver at 12, there's a couple things. I think Garrett Wilson and Drake London, their draft props, if you look at like BetOnline or you look at DraftKings, Bandool, is about 10.5. I think both men are either 50-50 or a little bit even favored to go in the top 10 now.

You're probably looking at 12 at either a tradeback, which worked pretty well for the Vikings last year with Christian Derrissaw, with a trade back with the New York Jets, or you're looking for somebody who maybe has a few holes in his game. Jamison Williams, who is coming off of an ACL. Traylon Burks, who more people I talk to are not particularly happy with his athleticism, but he would be decent on the Vikings and a compliment to Jefferson, in my opinion. Guys like Sky Moore, competition is an issue there.

Same with Christian Watson out of NDSU. You have a number of players who could go to the Vikings, but this is a team that i think right now unfortunately and and and i think quesia dopamensa could like prove me wrong here which which i'd be happy for him to but i think this is a team right now that through the draft is trying to build depth for the 2022 season because you look at cornerback you look at defensive line uh even the offensive line although i think that they've done okay on free agency in that regard.

You know, those are positions where not only is the draft sort of deep where the Vikings are at 12, but this roster is going to suffer from the exact same things it suffered from the last two years, which are injuries and ineffective play by starters, if they can't use this draft to get depth. So unfortunately, I don't know if wide receiver is really going to be where the Vikings go there. But if Wilson or London fell to them, that would be an interesting conundrum for them, because it would help them at least have some leverage over Jefferson should one of those receivers come up and play well. Folks, I've been working on a new studio space to shoot some videos,

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Well, doesn't it feel a little bit, uh, I don't know, uh, forced through the trees or penny wise pound foolish to not take a receiver. If you're only looking to fill out the depth of another position, like we have oft criticized them in this off

season for seeming to Spielman-y and that seems to Spielman-y to me, which is, I mean, we need this third round running back, Alexander Madison, cause we lost Latavius Murray. You're like, what? You can replace Latavius Murray with almost anyone. And Derek Stingley Jr., for example, or Ahmed Gardner, or, you know, one of the top corner prospects, you know, maybe you don't feel like you can replace that type of position. But at the same time, every year, doesn't it seem like we get to this point and there's five corners left on the market who can still play? And doesn't it feel like two? And I'm not saying these things don't matter.

So don't mistake that. But like defensive ends, there's Jerry Hughes and there's Melvin Ingram and there's Justin Houston. Like Justin Houston is every year still on the market at this time, waiting for someone to come get him in a handful of sacks for, for free basically. So I guess I wonder about receiver being the hardest of those positions to just grab some random dudes at the end of free agency or when they're desperate to get jobs because the Vikings have tried that before

Kendall Wright Jordan Taylor people know the names and that hasn't that hasn't worked very well also there's another part of this too if Kevin O'Connell wants to be better than Gary and Clint Kubiak and Kevin Stefanski I think he just needs better players. I mean, because I don't know that the answer is he has magic scheme potion. He's probably got good scheme potion, but I don't know that it's scheme potion that can totally change the offense and where it ranks, but I know that players can do that. Well, and even his, yeah, yeah. I think, uh, you know, this was not met with a ton of joy by Vikings Twitter, but I think one of the reasons that their win total is 9 or 8.5, depending upon the market you look at,

is because I think that people believe, fans believe the markup from Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell is a lot higher than I think the market does. I mean, the market looks and says, well, this is a guy who didn't call plays for the Rams. This is a guy, the last time he called plays was the architect of Kirk Cousins' least effective year in Washington. You know, so there are clear question marks there, not to say that he can't have success.

But yeah, I mean, the fact is, is when Sean McVay took over the Rams, one of the, I mean, they signed Andrew Whitworth to a big deal. They signed Robert Woods to a big deal. They signed Connor Barwin to a big deal. Nickel Robey Coleman. They were not spendthrifts, but they had Jared Goff on a rookie is, you know, we can try to make, we can try to look at the differences between the last regime and this regime as much as we want. But the fact of the matter is when they extended Kirk Cousins and they extended him to a short term deal, which means there's not a

ton of flexibility there. They're strapped with a lot of the same decisions, right, that the previous regime was strapped with. with i mean when you look at zimmer and steelman you know 2014 drafts they took a quarterback um they took a linebacker an off-ball linebacker um when you know from a depth perspective you know they already had you know they theoretically had castle uh the 32 pick on bridgewater was kind of a luxury they didn't plan on starting him right away um bar was a starter from the get-go but in 2015 trey waynes was not a starter right away 2016 laquan treadwell was not a starter right away um and so you know i don't like again i think these decision makers are a product of the gambles that they're forced to make. And I think, you know, because of the move, whomever was steering the ship on the Kirk Cousins extension,

that has put Kwestia Dopamensa and by extension Kevin O'Connell in position to make bets that are very similar to the last group that has made bets. And so, yeah, like you said, said i i think you know drafting best player available for depth especially on the offensive side of the ball where the bangles for example and even the eagles with with uh davante smith and to a lesser extent i think miami with with jaylen waddle you know shows the impact that a guy could make right away like i don't necessarily know if if that's really sort of the the thought process that's going through their mind again i'd be i'd be really happy for them to to show me wrong there

and to take a wide receiver at that spot well and i think that that's what a lot of people are looking at it with this is okay how is it going to be different and i got a message today from an astute follower that said hey i mean is the draft kind of quacey's playground to use the analytics i mean i've i've joked around this needs to be a shirt is just like where are the analytics um but uh you know maybe they finally use them on chris reed a little bit because i think that he had some decent data that pointed uh to him you know maybe being a good low key offensive guard. But we haven't really seen the analytics where we can go into the PFF data and go, oh, OK, this nickel corner they found had really good numbers.

And maybe that hasn't been the case, even with Shandon Sullivan. That was not the case, that his numbers were pretty, pretty bliss. So, uh, I guess I wonder about like, if you were analytics sing the heck out of this draft, I mean, don't you trade back and take a receiver? Don't you say like, Oh, uh, Pittsburgh Steelers. I know you really want to Kenny pick it, come get him. And then draft at 20th Chris Alave or whoever is the wide receiver that's there. I don't know. You tell me if that's the answer. Like how, how could Kweisi Adafl-Mensah analytics this draft? Yeah. And this is where I have a great deal of empathy.

Might be the, might be too strong, but like a, a great deal of like understanding for what he's going through. I mean, this is not, you know, he he's come in in January. I mean, all of the scouts are basically the same from the spielman era right all of the um you know the analytics group has not necessarily grown for this team uh all that kind of stuff so you know unfortunately like i don't think and there's not a ton of edge to be quite honest you know now that pff you know we publish all of our draft boards and you know grinding the mocks does the you know and the athletic and everybody does their sort of like

consensus big boards like there's not a huge edge anymore in just selecting better players right um because you know we've shown time and time again that per pick uh there's really not you know there's no one that drafts a lot better than anybody else um so so that might be where he comes from here which is to trade back now i think that the hard part is um you know given that all the scouts are the same i think and and you know sort of their mechanisms for selecting players are the same like this is that's no different than spielman either spielman traded back in 2021 uh he traded back you know got a number of draft picks in 2020 2019 as you said he traded back like six times before alexander madison was a pick in the last uh pick of round three um so and and ultimately you, for the most part, those draft picks didn't produce a ton of fruit.

So, you know, now, again, the question becomes, you know, the coach is different. The quarterback's the same, though. And, you know, that's been the one constant through this entire sort of four years of mediocrity, other than the coach and the GM. So, yeah, that's kind of where I struggle. Like, I think, you know, Questy can push a lot of the buttons, but Spielman was pushing those buttons as well. Yeah. Yeah. I do think that we could sort of make a list of 10 egregious draft errors

that the Vikings made and what we could learn from them. For example, Laquan Treadwell was a 30th percentile athlete at the NFL combine among players at his position. Your odds of having a guy turned from a 30th percentile athlete into a star receiver, just not very high. And I think that Kweisi Adafo-Mensa will probably be very aware of that, that I looked it up since 2000, only five guys have made the pro bowl who were under 40th percentile at the Combine. And the Vikings went for the outlier. And then, you know, there's the positional value.

And, of course, everybody kind of knows that, I think, at this point. But there's also the drafting of players to fill spots that aren't that important or aren't that hard to replace. So they would draft linebackers to stuff the run. You're like, what? Kentrell Brothers to stuff the run. Ben Gideon to stuff the run. You'd be like, what? Kentrell brothers to stuff the run, Ben Gideon to stuff the run. Like you don't need to do this. Um, so I do think that there's some edges to be had, but here's the unfortunate position that they're in. And I think one of the things that people dislike the most in sports is feeling like you're just at the whim of the roulette balls, bouncing around, hoping it falls onto your number.

That's what they have to get though, is the Vikings in order to succeed with where they're at. And this can totally happen and has in the past, but they just need to land a monster draft class. And there's no answer to how there's no like, oh, well just pick all the right players, man. All set Kweisi, why don't you call me um but the reality of the situation they're in with the cap and everything else and the quarterback

is they just have to they just have to land a monster draft class and there's no actionable thing that you can tell them or that we can look into or we can analytics to say well this is how you should be doing it. I think you said it precisely. I mean, the fact of the matter, I mean, look at, they're not that dissimilar of a situation than the mid-2010 New Orleans Saints. You know, like when they went 7-9 three straight years. I think Brees is a better quarterback than Cousins, but Cousins has played pretty well the last couple years.

And with a quarterback that makes that much money and salary cap issues that sort of spiral, and that's really what's happened this offseason is a lot of the issues that came to a head have really just spiraled for them. They got cap compliance. They get Zedarius Smith, who, depending upon how you measure it, lot of the the issues that came to a head have really just spiraled for them um they you know they got cap compliance they get zadarius smith who depending upon how you measure it might be the biggest outside free agent in the history of the cousins era for minnesota but in many ways it's not really anyway right um because it's a two-year deal it's more of a two-year deal than

was initially reported yeah yeah three years 42 would have been better than the three years 27 for pierce. But, you know, it's not really that way. And by the way, the Pierce signing didn't even last one season of Pierce being on the field for what it's worth. So, you know, what got the Saints out of it? Well, in 2016, they drafted Michael Thomas. That was certainly a help. And in 2017, they got the Ram check, the Marcus Williams, the Marshawn Lattimore. I'm blanking on other names, but they got those they got the ram check the marcus williams the marshall latimore uh i'm blanking on other names but they got those they got that monster draft class right and the vikings need that and the problem is is that again in your first draft class where you have not been able to implement these teams prepare for free agency in the draft well before quesia dopamensa was signed on to be

the vikings general manager so in some ways you're stepping up to the table with other people's bets and you're saying okay you know uh you know daddy needs a new pair of shoes type of thing yeah and and it's not even the gambles you've made in many cases so i think that again i don't i'm not trying to be negative i'm just saying that that's what they're up against. And to circle this all the way back to our original discussion, which was the Justin Jefferson thing, it's like another year of maybe one guy ends up breaking out or a couple guys end up playing well and so on and so forth.

That's awesome, but if they go 9- eight or 10 and seven and you bow out the first round of the playoffs, like is Justin Jefferson really going to look at that situation and say, you know, well look at that situation and say, Hey, sign me up for that longterm. Like I, I just, I get really you know, when I think about that, I just think they're staring down the barrel at a tough situation. Yeah. Okay. So how about a very quick talk me into then talk me into a patience on Kweisi

Adafo-Mento, which I think is totally fair. Um, some of the things that I said, critiquing what they've done, I think have been maybe misconstrued for me saying like, pack the guy up, put him in a plane and send it off into the ocean. Like that's not what I'm saying. Uh, but the position that they've put themselves in for the long-term is more challenging for the short term. It helps them get maybe more wins than they were going to if they tore it all down. Um, but talk me into how after this year, which is Kweisi Adafomensa's first several months of being on the job, that he can right the ship, so to speak. Right. They're like the bike, the Viking ship.

No. OK. Anyway, see, the best part is you can't go anywhere. You're just in the airport. So you just have to keep listening. There's nothing you can do but talk me into talk me into after this draft what quacey adafo mensa can do to make this the rebuild part along with the competitive part and and send them in a direction where they could compete for a super bowl

uh yeah i mean i think that the issue becomes right right, when we think of Kweisi Dopamensa is, you know, you and I sort of see the four-year deal and we say, man, he doesn't have that much time, right? And he puts two of them on Cousins. And, you know, in theory, then, if that doesn't work, which, like, let's be honest, the first four years of the Cousins, even though Cousins has played well, have not worked. Right. So chances that it's going to work now in year 34 and 35 for him, you know, I'm not I'm not hugely bullish on. But but at the same time, if if he's not exactly making 100 percent of the decision on the Cousins deal deal then he might have more time than we believe right and so you know there is some value in having a competent quarterback so you can find out about young players and you know i know with the chiefs now the chiefs are a different story because they went 12 and 4 and 10 and 6 the two years with alex smith before they they moved on

to my home so you know this team hasn't nearly been as successful, but I think it's somewhat instructive. If you have an okay to pretty good quarterback, depending on the day, and you, let's say, draft Chris Olave, or you draft Christian Watson of NDSU, you know, you get a look at those free agent guards that you signed. You know, the tackle, the two tackles appear to be pretty good for Minnesota, let's say, and all that stuff. You give your defense a chance to show its warts where if you're, for example, the Jets last year, who knows how good the Jets' defense was or wasn't because the offense was scoring eight points a game.

So Cousins gives you a decent amount of competence so that you can figure out about the other 52 guys on your roster. And if you have a longer runway, I think that it could make sense for them. I think both of us have made our opinion known that we would have just moved on. I think it's really interesting that Ryan Poles, who, granted, it's not necessarily a completely isomorphic situation in Chicago, but, you know, he has not gone. He's more torn it down and sort of started from the studs around Justin Fields and even to an extent not building around Fields as heavily as people believe. You know, he was the other candidate for the Vikings job. You wonder if that was something that he was allowed to do in Chicago that he might not have been allowed to do in Minnesota.

But you sort of see the two differences there. And from my perspective, I just think Chicago is further ahead in what reality is going to bring. But there are situations like, for example, the Saints of the last decade. I think even Atlanta, when you bring in Kyle Shanahan for a Falcons team that had gone, I want to say, 4-12 in 2013 and 6-10 in 2014. Matt Ryan a little bit better than Kirk Cousins, but not all that much so. That team goes to a Super Bowl in 2016. So there are examples,

but it's going to require, in my opinion, great drafts. The Falcons in 2016 drafted Deion Jones, Devondre Campbell, and a few other guys that ended up being productive for them. The Vikings are going to need a great draft, and they're going to need Kevin O'Connell to be basically in that sort of Sean McVay,

Kyle Shanahan tier. I think if that happens, given the schedule that they have and maybe some regression by green Bay, that could be there. That could be their way out of this. A way out of that, this is consistent with Kirk Cousins still being on the team. You know,

I'm just picturing people walking by at the airport and I know how loud you talk and you know this too. And just being like, this is the most intense football thing I've ever heard at the airport. about a different situation it's that no one that matters cares and no one that cares matters that's that's what's going through my head right now um but but it's certainly uh you i am getting some looks in this phone booth i feel like i'm going to take a picture of this on this pay phone here and tweet it out yes yes please do but you just imagine people be like, what is going on with the jets? You know? Yeah. Yeah.

The jets just catching an absolute stray in the middle of that discussion. But that's great. Uh, okay. Final thing though. Final thing. Um, what's your favorite part of draft season? Because I, I've stated mine many times in the show. It's just how insane the takes get and that there's no accountability.

So just fire off your takes get and that there's no accountability so just fire off your takes and see what happens that's my favorite part is that we could just throw the hair back be like i don't know sam howell goat why not uh what's yours i don't know i think last year so just to give you guys an idea about, like, volume, my betting partner and I had $11,000 in bets on the draft in circulation by the time the draft. And I think we turned over, I think it was like 30%, so, you know, we made a decent amount, like enough to, like, at least pay for half of a vacation let's say um and i like that a lot because you know never in a million years and i'm i'm a pretty good sports better but like never in a million years would i expect to make 30 betting sides like i i bet i had about half of that on the super bowl um and i made nine percent i was pretty happy you know like so the draft props markets now this

year's been weird when the pandemic happened and there were no sports to bet on they basically opened every freaking bet up uh for for the 2020 draft and um and then 2021 followed suit this year because the quarterback position doesn't provide you with these like pivots there have been a lot less uh draft props so far uh with three weeks left in the process so i'm excited for when they start posting them um i know i i messaged uh arif asan on twitter and i said hey um if you have uh you know he's like i don't think derrick stingley's gonna get to 12 and i'm like well you know it's basically even money to go before 13 so why don't you bet that and uh like i i kind of like that's part of it um because it's what you said it's like you know people say all these

kinds of things and there's really no accountability and you know i like the accountability of saying and this is also my my angle towards all vik Vikings people, you know, who will tell you and me that we're wrong. And it's like, okay, we'll bet the wind total then. You know, I think that the sports book provides the greatest accountability this time of year. And in the draft, you're able to exploit, I think, rumors, whether they be founded or not. And, you know, I think you and I know at this point in time who the credible people are and who aren't. And there are some people who aren't that end up moving these markets, interestingly, because of their platform. That is interesting. Well, I would say that you and I couldn't be farther apart in why we enjoy the draft.

I mean, yours is so you can gamble on it like crazy, which is your podcast, by the way, PFF Forecast with you and George Shahuri, where i just like to sit back and watch the show from the peanut gallery i like to watch draft people fight with each other over stuff that they'll never know i like to see mel kuyper say he's gonna quit if jimmy clausen isn't drafted number one overall and then he goes in the second round i love larry tunsell having a gas mask bong and then turning out to be a great player like it's it's all yeah it's all to me it's just the show is what's great for me uh but you you are more gutsy than me i mean i i feel like also if i'm in a locker room that i should not gamble on any sports um that's it's like a little bit of a different role uh but also even if i wasn't i wouldn't because i don't believe in myself

in my own ability to guess what's going to happen because I cover the Vikings. And there's just like, who could ever guess, except for maybe last year, I was guessing eight and nine, but you know, aside from that, this team finds ways when case Keenum took them to the NFC championship game. I was like, okay. I mean, you just cannot predict anything with this team and that's what makes it great. So, uh, that's what I like about it. But Eric, um, I would say get back to whatever you're doing, but I know you're doing nothing. So I can say safe travels and congratulations to your sister getting married. And this will be the first time I've ever said this to anyone. Enjoy hungry. Thank you, Matthew. I, I, it's a pleasure just to get to talk to you and uh and chat football

and uh yeah i'm like i said three weeks until the draft like you said i i love i'm probably gonna watch a few of these old drafts on youtube on the plane um those are the best but yeah for the current draft right now uh get get some skin in the game nothing i think it's uh there's a professional sports better named seth burn who who tweeted out once and i really like this nothing sharpens the mind like risk okay well i'm gonna continue to just sit back and watch everyone else risk their money on the draft and watch all these teams risk their future on rookie players so thanks for your time eric safe travels and uh we'll talk soon man take care