Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Kevin Cole breaks down where the Vikings sit after the first week of free agency in the 'Improvement Index'

Episode Date: March 23, 2021

Matthew Coller and Pro Football Focus analyst Kevin Cole talk about his "Improvement Index" which is meant to quantify how much a team has improved during the offseason. The Vikings are presently on the positive side of the chart but many NFC teams are on the negative side. Why are the Rams lower and the Lions last on the list? How much does the Vikings' lack of answers at safety, offensive line and edge rusher matter? Is Washington the most improved team? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Folks, do you feel like everything these days is go, go, go? It's non-stop, from work, to friends, to family, and a million pressing issues. Sometimes you just need to take a playoff and hit the reset button. That's when you reach for a Coors Light. It's made to chill. Hey, it's that time of year in Minnesota again to get out on the lake, go to the cabin, sit back, watch the baseball. Coors Light is the perfect refreshment to chill during these summer months. There's only one beer out there that's made to chill. The mountains on the bottles and cans turn blue when your beer is cold,

and that way you know it's time to chill. Hit that reset button with some mountain cold refreshment. Coors Light is cold lager, cold filtered, and cold packaged. It's literally made to chill. It's crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. Coors Light is the one you should choose when you need to unwind, when you want to hit the reset button, reach for the beer that is made to chill. Get Coors Light in the new look delivered straight to your door

with Drizzly or Instacart, Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado, and as always, celebrate. Hey, everyone. Before we get into the show, if you're thinking about listing your home, I know exactly who you need to connect with. Nick and Josh from Victory Home Team. They will guide you through the listing process with a hands-on approach where they walk through every single listing and add their personal touch. They're not going to put you through some robotic cookie-cutter process.

Selling your home is too important for that. Josh and Nick, who are two of the biggest purple and gold football fans I know, use innovative marketing strategies to increase visibility and make sure your house gets seen by potential buyers. And when the time comes, they can close the deal with their proven negotiation strategies. Just ask Purple Insider producer Jeremy Rushing, who worked with Victory Home Team. Hi, this is Jeremy, producer at Purple Insider, and my fiance and I actually used Nick and Victory Home Team to purchase our forever home just this past winter, and we can't recommend them enough.

We were selling and buying in this scenario, and the process was so smooth. We actually had four showings and two offers on our townhome just in its first day on the market. So if you're looking to buy a new home, looking to sell yours, maybe just like us, you're doing both in the same process, that can be so stressful. But Victory Home Team takes that stress off your shoulders and just makes the whole situation incredibly easy to handle.

Let my football-loving friends at Victory Home Team list your house today. Visit VictoryHomeTeam.com to check out how great their listings look and their seller's guide. That's Victory Home Team, number one in real estate in the Twin Cities. And if you mentioned you heard about them on this show, they will give you a special purple and gold discount. All right, let's get into the show. Welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, presented by Scout Logistics and Symbol, your stock market for sports. All right, let's welcome to the show from Pro Football Focus. He makes some of the coolest charts out there about whether your team has improved or not improved in the offseason. Kevin Cole from PFF.

What's up, Kevin? I'm doing well. Yeah, it's good to make charts. Because charts are, everyone accepts it as fact when they see it. No complaints. Nothing but praise is heaped upon me. You know how fans are. You know, I feel like there's just a little bit of sarcasm there, just like a tiny bit.

Now, look, I love your charts because they really put into a visual, which I know is the goal of a chart, but how much your team has lost versus how much they have gained in free agency. Now, you have many, many other charts, but these are just the most recent. And that's why I wanted to bring you on to talk to you about just who's make the big jumps, who has not, you know, who's fallen off quite a bit in such a unique year. And maybe we can kind of start with that is just how the salary cap has finally caught up to a bunch of teams. And I wonder before we get into the Vikings

who it sort of kicked in the teeth the most in your opinion yeah I mean I think there there were a few obvious candidates going into the offseason for who were going to get hit the most and those were the ones that were you know the furthest over the cap so the Saints were in that picture the Eagles were in that picture the Steelers were in that picture. The Steelers were there. The Falcons were definitely there. So those are some big ones. I mean, those don't necessarily correspond to the worst teams, according to my improvement index, because in large part, and this is something that, you know, a beef people may have with pro football focus generally or analytics generally, but the quarterback makes a big difference. So if you have a downgrade, at least we're seeing as a downgrade at quarterback, even though some people may think

it's only a marginal difference in quarterback, sometimes that can outweigh replacing a higher level or losing a higher level position player outside of the quarterback. Right. Yeah. So that's what I was going to ask you about with Washington is like how much is the great Ryan Fitzpatrick. But I also think that if we were doing a kind of market report, and maybe it would be presented by our sponsor, Symbol, which also sponsors Football Focus. And we were doing a Symbol market report, then we could talk about how Washington has made humongous games though I think because not only just is it a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who has two working legs so far as I could tell but also you know they add Curtis Samuel they add William Jackson I think so far that they are the winners of free agency and not the New England Patriots

who have signed just like a bunch of human beings. Yeah, I mean, we have them being pretty neck and neck for one and two. Now, we do have the Patriots at number one, but a reason, a large part of that, at least a chunk of that is because of returning opt-outs, which I'm putting into this because I had them in last year as losing it, so I felt like they probably should get credit for them coming back here. So people like, you know, Dante Hightower coming back or helping the Patriots there. Now, Washington is second, and like you mentioned, it's not only the players that they gained, it's that those were position groups that were particularly weak,

and that's something that this index is trying to do, is what it's doing is it's really projecting out the 2021 season with the roster as of the end of 2020, what you would have seen in 2020, assuming all the players are healthy going into 2021, versus, again, reprojecting out the 2021 season with the new roster. So even Ryan Fitzpatrick, you may say, well, he's an average quarterback, and that's kind of who he's been the last couple of seasons. Well, an average quarterback is a lot better than Kyle Allen or Taylor Heineke versus if he would have come in and replaced someone else who would have been on the average scale.

If he would have come into, you know, I don't know, New England or something, replaced Cam Newton, there would have been less of a differential there. So that's a big deal. And then positional value is important in these calculations because the war values that we have, you know, depending on what the position is, the differences between an elite player or an average player or a replacement player is bigger. And wide receiver and defensive backs generally happen to be two of the larger positions we see outside of quarterbacks, so they nailed all three of those markers as far as hitting the positional value and having weak position groups to start off with to bring those players in. I think you make a good point about the average quarterback thing, but Taylor He Heineke slander on a podcast of a team he used to play for.

I'm just kidding. There are always the people who sent me messages and said, how did the Vikings miss on Taylor Heineke? Like, I don't know, man, he lost out a competition to Case Keenum and then Case Keenum ended up going like 13 and 3 that one year so I guess it all worked out okay but you know they're a team that's really caught my eye as far as their free agency action the other is just you know so on the AFC side some of the teams that were absolutely horrendous last year have really taken advantage of all the cap space that they have in the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'd love to know your take, Kevin, on how much those teams can improve, assuming that it's rookie quarterbacks who are jumping into the fold.

I can't see the Jets sticking with Sam Darnold here. They're probably going to draft Zach Wilson. And of course, Trevor Lawrence is very likely to go to the Jacksonville Jaguars. These two teams have spent a lot. They've changed coaches. I mean, I think that they go into the season with a ton of intrigue, but it's got to be really hard to figure out just exactly how good they can be. Yeah, I mean, one of the things, okay, so this is probably something that's a little bit confusing about the index generally, is people are looking

at it and they're saying, oh, how can you say Team X is getting worse when they were so bad record-wise last year? Well, you know, some of the record doesn't necessarily reflect how bad the team was. Now, in the case of the Jets, they almost were as bad as a 2-4 TD. So they were pretty bad. And then when we look at someone like the Jaguars, they were bad, but they were probably a better team last year than the Jets were, despite the fact that they ended up with the worst record. So that's probably something a little bit of perspective on there. Now, I think the Jets can be quite the fact that they ended up with the worst record. So that's probably something, a little bit of perspective on there. Now, I think the Jets can be quite a bit better. It depends on who they draft at quarterback.

I mean, there's a lot of talk of Zach Wilson going there. You know, if Justin Fields goes there, one of these guys. Typically, for at least a year one type of thing, rushing ability really helps for a quarterback to raise the floor. So maybe someone like Fields may be better than Wilson. I know Wilson can scoot a little bit too, but he's maybe a little bit of a lower size, so I'm not sure he'll be as good.

But I think what's interesting with the Jets is they haven't really gone and done that much, if you really think about it. I mean, they had big moves in the last couple years that they brought in C.J. Mosley, and they've had some of the worst free agency transactions, whether it's Tremaine Johnson or other guys in the past, these huge contracts that have ended up blowing up in their face. This time, I mean, they had healthy deals, bringing in Carl Lawson,

bringing in Corey Davis, but they're not, like, remaking the roster like a lot of teams are. So they seem to be taking a patient approach, and, again, I think that hints towards maybe bringing in the quarterback and saying we have some time here. And I don't know what the market's like for Sam Darnold nowadays either. So maybe they draft the quarterback and even bring back Darnold for another year. I'm not sure what will end up happening.

Yeah, I don't think that that's a crazy idea. I mean, there's no guarantee that Zach Wilson or Justin Fields becomes a superstar quarterback. And if you get them, and there have been plenty of people in the NFL who have said before that look you don't really know what you've got until these guys are in your building so if you get Zach Wilson or you get Justin Fields you say oh wow he's actually nowhere close we should just go with Sam Darnold for a year and see how that turns out I don't think that that's a crazy idea of letting him be a transition quarterback for those guys. And I've also been on the side of letting guys sit is not a travesty. It's okay.

If Patrick Mahomes sits for a year, you don't need to play people right away. So that, that is interesting if they can't get anything back for Sam Darnold. Although I still think the bears should probably trade for Darnold and have him compete with Andy Dalton, but that's neither here nor there. Yeah.

I mean, Dalton got a decent, healthy contract there. So I guess we'll, we'll end up seeing, I mean, Dalton got a decent, healthy contract there, so I guess we'll end up seeing. And maybe we'll just quickly talk about the Jaguars. I mean, the Jaguars have been much more active in a volume type of approach for who they're bringing in. I mean, I like a lot of what they've done with bringing in Marvin Jones there.

You know, they have Shaquille Griffin that they're bringing in at cornerback. So, again, hitting some of those more valuable positions. And we have them boosting up because of that, the volume of plays that they're making there. And, you know, in some ways, at least they were a team that was competing a handful of years ago, but they pretty much remade that entire roster there. So I think offensively, at least outside of the quarterback,

they have some interesting pieces with DJ Chark, with LaVisca Chenault, who looked okay last year. So I think they may be a little bit closer on that side of the ball, bringing in Trevor Lawrence. So it'll be interesting. And I think they may be a little bit closer on that side of the ball, bringing in Trevor Lawrence. So it'll be interesting. And I think we've seen a little bit with Matt Rule last year, and now we're seeing it with the college coach coming in here with Urban Myers. I think he wants to compete,

and that's why they're making as many transactions as they are. And the other thing, too, is that if there's any quarterback who's going to step in right away and be good, it's Trevor Lawrence with all the experience that he has, the skill set, the size, the athleticism, the arm strength, that he has a chance to make them a competitive team right away. Sorry I keep looking down. I'm looking at your improvement index on my phone.

And what I notice, though, if I use my little finger here and count down, a lot of NFC teams that compete with the Minnesota Vikings are on the bad side of things. The Lions are revamping their entire roster. The Green Bay Packers have really done nothing except for brought a running back back for a very expensive price. Give me just your general improvement index on the rest of the NFC North teams, because at least as we stand right now past the first wave of free agency, I feel like the Vikings

got wins above replacement by those guys dropping back. Yeah, I think there was a relative improvement there. I mean, yeah, you mentioned with the Packers. So something like Aaron Jones, I don't think it's the worst deal possible. But according to how the index is calculated, they don't get credit for that. That's like a lateral move, according to the index. So nothing's going on there. They didn't make a big wide receiver free agent signing yet. Maybe they will. That would be something I think that would move the needle based upon the concept of outside of Devontae Adams. They don't have the most talent there. So the differential that you'd be getting

there would be something good. Maybe that will still happen. And for the Lions, you know, it's not only the downgrade at quarterback as we calculate things from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff, but it's also the fact that they lost Kenny Galladay, who, according to our numbers, when we were pretty high on him, well because I thought maybe he was going to be on a one-year, you know, $12 million type of contract. And then he came out with $16 million per – I think it's $16 million. It was $18 million per for four years. So he got a good deal. Yeah, no, he definitely did. And I think Vikings fans are celebrating seeing Kenny Galladay not in Detroit. And Marvin Jones is the same thing.

Oh, Marvin Jones also. Yeah, yeah. Marvin Jones is another one. So it's really tough. It's tough when you don't have Marvin Jones, you don't have Kenny Galladay. I mean, they're going to try to bring in, you know, the Bronner Brashad Perryman. They brought in Tyrell Williams. But those guys for us are, you know, marginally better than not even average players.

I mean, better than replacement level, but we have them as below average players. Yeah, yeah. I mean, in comparison to Galladay and Jones, who were who were terrific I mean maybe one of the best receiver duos when they were healthy that was always kind of an issue for them Matt Stafford going to the Rams and then the Rams add to Sean Jackson I don't know how much they can really improve there but it by the numbers how much is the improvement from Stafford to Goff? Because people who listen to every episode here of this podcast will know I've done a lot of shoulder shrugging about it. Like, look, I mean, I know that Stafford has more skill than Jared Goff,

but I've also watched him against the Viking many a time and just been like, eh, I don't see this magical quarterback that people talk about as if, like, he couldn't have possibly succeeded more with Detroit, that it's entirely the organization's fault. But if you think I'm completely wrong, please say so. Yeah, I mean, it's an improvement. So we had it as an improvement in a weird way, though. And I'm not there's a lot of the fact that they have a pretty strong supporting cast there for the Rams, which for us, it kind of bolsters our projection for whoever the quarterback may be there and kind of gave a bigger floor to Goff.

And you're right. I mean, Stafford has been, at his best, maybe a top five quarterback, but we really only saw that for very limited periods of time. 2019 was probably his – maybe his best year period. But again, he played for half a season. He didn't play for a full season and he kind of reverted back to being the guy who's been in the quarterback eight to maybe quarterback 16 type of range for most of his career. So starting off, I really started the improvement index with that trade. So they were leading for quite a while there. And they're another one of these teams where, unfortunately, they just have more players to sign than they are going to bring in, players with contracts that were coming up. And they lost John Johnson.

They lost Troy Hill to the Browns. And they did spend their money in a little bit of a curious way with the huge contract for Leonard Floyd where, again, they're not getting credit for that. That was a player that they got on a cheap, cheap deal last year. Now they're paying a ton of money for it, but we're not giving them credit for improving there. So because of that, it kind of whittled away all the gain that you would get

from Matthew Stafford, which isn't huge. We were talking about probably maybe half a win or less than that, even so, from Matthew Stafford. And then now we. And we were talking about probably maybe half a win or less than that, even so, from Matthew Stafford. And then now we have him in the negative for this offseason generally because of the fact that they lost defensive backs, which we see as being pretty valuable. And I'm just also skeptical sometimes about coaches who think, oh, it must be me who's the one that's driving the success of the player.

And then when the player falls off because, hey, maybe his weapons aren't as good anymore and maybe his offensive line isn't as good anymore, which I think was a major factor with Jared Goff, where they lost a couple of offensive linemen. Roger Saffold was really good for them. Andrew Whitworth is a million years old. He was elite, and then now he's like, okay.

And I think that those mattered. And what happened was the organization said, no, no, no, it's Jared Goff's fault. It's got to be his fault. And I just – I always kind of like question those and wonder, is that really it? Or is it that your supporting cast just fell off, which you're still going to need for Matt Stafford because he's not going to carry you? Yeah, yeah. I mean, and you mentioned how the Lions had a great receiving duo. He's always had pretty good receivers.

If you go all the way back to Calvin Johnson, he had Golden Tate during Golden He's always had pretty good receivers. If you go all the way back to Calvin Johnson, he had Golden Tate during Golden Tate's prime for a while. So, you know, it's been there for him. And I think with Goff, it's a weird thing where he executed extremely well under good conditions. And sometimes that can be an undervalued trait because we say, well, he did what he was supposed to do, so therefore I'm not going to give him any credit for it.

But, you know, sometimes quarterbacks don't execute under, under ideal conditions. And what Stafford will give you is, is sometimes he's maybe he's not executing when he should be executing, but then he's making these ridiculous plays that golf can't do. So sometimes I think for like you're saying, a coach says, you know what, I'm going to scheme it up for him. So he'll have these easy plays where he's going to execute. And then he

can also give me a little bit of something extra, but that first part isn't necessarily a given with any quarterback. And that's why someone like Goff could be underrated or Stafford overrated. Goff, kind of like your singles and doubles hitter where Stafford strikes out a lot and hits a lot of home runs and, you know, there's value to both. But, you know, a lot of times the guy who's more consistent might get you farther if things fall his way. But I don't know. I just kind of say with those two guys,

neither one of them make me think that a team is going to go to a next level because of them. And so I'm not sure the Rams needed to give up as much as they did to get Stafford. But that aside, let's talk about the Vikings. Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson. As you can imagine, Kevin, people are split. Some people love it because these guys are names and they're very good players. And some people look at it, probably this show would lean this way. They paid a lot for a guy who's played nose tackle and a guy who's 31 years old and brings along a lot of risk. And we talked to Patrick Peterson today and he even acknowledged that the last

two years have not been all that great for him, which makes you go, Oh, for 10 million, that's, you know, not exactly what you want to hear. And then you see Kyle Fuller signed for less Xavier road signed for less. So I think there's the, like, these guys will definitely help you, but how much versus their worth is the question the the economics of it yeah I mean that's a tough one I mean my the index isn't really accounting for the for the economics as much but I think for Peterson the issue is how far back do you want to to look at his performance because he's had a pretty severe drop-off the last couple of

years. Last year, believe it or not, we had his play, I believe, being below what we would call replacement level play at some times. So that's not great. But then again, I think we would have had the same thing for Xavier Rhodes for some of what he did. So I mean, it's a short-term contract, so I guess that's an upside of it for Peterson. And then for Tomlinson, I mean, we like Tomlinson a lot. We've actually upped a bit how much credit we give to run defense, especially in that run-stuffing, nose-tackle type of role, just because of how it allows a defense to work outside of it and to build around someone who can really control that.

I know we're not really concerned about the run so much, but sometimes if you have a player who can handle a lot of responsibility, and I think Tom is going to be able to do that, then it can free up other people to maybe have more an effect on the passing game when it comes to that on those downs. So, I mean, I'm not super down on what's going on. It's just going to be losing someone like Harris for us is going to be a bigger deal. And that was a really light contract, which I'm not sure how shocked you were by that.

The safety market seems extremely soft, but then you saw guys like, you know, Justin Simmons get a pretty decent deal in light of where the market is. Hey, everyone. Anybody who listens to the show knows that Sam and I may not be scratch golfers, but we love to have a great time playing golf. And that's why we have partnered with Birdie Golf in Woodbury. Birdie Golf is hands down the best indoor golf experience you will ever have. There are eight of the world's best golf simulators where you can sharpen your swing, and luckily for us, never lose a ball.

But it's not just for hardcore golfers. Birdie Golf is for everyone. Bring the family, play arcade-style games while dining on great food in an upscale and comfortable environment. They have private bays for social distancing, a luxury lounge for private events, outdoor patio, and scratch kitchen. You'll want to try the whiskey or beer float flights and the best boneless wings in the metro.

Make golf a night out or the place to hold parties, events, fundraisers, even your fantasy football drafts. Check out Birdie Golf at 494 in Valley Creek in Woodbury, just a short drive from anywhere in the Twin Cities Metro, and at birdiegolf.com, or you can call 651-998-2200 today. I'll see you there. Hey, everybody. I want to tell you about our friends at SimBull. SimBull is a new sports marketplace where you can trade shares with professional teams like Stocks. So, as we jump fully into free agency season, you're going to want to get in on teams now before your team's stock rises.

Go to symbol.app, that is S-I-M-B-U-L-L dot A-P-P. Sign up using the promo code PURPLE and get a $10 deposit bonus if you're a first-time user, and then you are off and rolling. Here's how it works. You buy stocks of your teams, and when your team wins, you earn cash payouts that are instantly deposited. If you sign up for Symbol, you also get updates emailed to you directly

with the trends on which teams are on the rise. So check out Symbol.app or follow them on Twitter at Symbol Exchange and check out the Marketplace for Sports today. I think that last year, Anthony Harris's play just not being anywhere to the level that it was the year before. And sometimes this is how safeties work, right? He gets something like seven or eight passes defended, but doesn't get any interceptions. The year before, he gets a bunch of interceptions, but some of them, Russell Wilson actually batted a pass to Anthony Harris. It got knocked up in the air.

He tried to knock it down and knocked it to Anthony Harris, and he ends up leading the league in interceptions. If that had happened or if he had hit the market last year, I think he would have gotten that big deal, but that was a major part of it. And I look at that one as a big loss for the Vikings because I'm not sure how they replace it, Kevin. And this is where I am with this off season too, with the Vikings is look, those guys might help you should help you Tomlinson for sure.

They were running out the worst three technique defensive tackle in the NFL last year. It will be better, but the money that could have been spent on the open spot still, they have no guard. They have no left tackle. They have no safety as we speak here i mean i i think that harris loss ends up looming a little bit larger than maybe people think yeah i mean i could see the rationale being that safety is more of a maybe fungible or replaceable position but the problem is when you have to scrape the bottom of the barrel, that's when things can get ugly. And that's when you don't have a certain level of play and coverage. I mean,

it's more so for cornerbacks than it would be for, for safeties, but still coverage is an, is an area where people talk about as being kind of like a weak link system, where if there is a flaw and it's exposed, then the offense can find that even if the other parts are working correctly. So I do think it's really, really important that they get a piece that can work and not just try to go on the cheap and throw some players in there and see what sticks, essentially, because you might not find the right thing sticking until week five or week six into the season, and that's a big problem. Yeah, for sure. And the other thing that they're dealing with here is how to create pressure. And I know that this is one thing that Pro Football Focus has looked very closely at, the relationship between coverage and pressure. And I think the answer is the entire season, have one of the lowest pressure rates, if not the lowest in the entire NFL.

And their big move is to bring in a guy who stuffs the run. So where is this pressure coming from? Daniil Hunter's status still is sort of up in the air. I just wonder if they can only get to be an average pressure team with still some holes in the secondary or question marks, how good of a defense can they be even with these additions? Yeah, I mean, defense is always more difficult to predict. So sometimes if you have poor performance, you know, shaking things up in and of itself, you're probably going to get better performance going forward. So I do think there's something to that.

I mean, yeah, we found a couple different things. I mean, number one, you can probably, you can scheme. I think teams maybe overestimate how much they can scheme on the backend for coverage and maybe underestimate how much you can scheme pressure sometimes. So that's, that's part of where the disconnect may be. I think it's really easy intellectually to say you have a great pass rusher. You put him there and then he goes and rushes the passer, and that's it. And there's no way to really combat that.

And I think that's true, although pass rushers have become really like a first round or bust type of position. So it's really difficult to get good quality players there. I mean, I think it can take a step forward. I mean, it's going to be an issue of how well, honestly, the other offenses that they're playing this year is. I mean, I don't see a repeat performance from the Packers this year, but we'll end up seeing what happens there.

I mean, the Bears with Andy Dalton, I don't think that's necessarily that concerning. And then we mentioned Jared Goff, and it's not only Jared Goff, but it's just really a weakened supporting cast all around him. So that's a lot of games right there where there can be some improvement, even if the defense doesn't really, you know, fundamentally get a lot better. The last time they played Jared Goff, he had a perfect passer rating, just saying. That's not all the way back to that ridiculous game a few years ago, right?

Yes. It is. Yeah, Thursday night football where a rapper literally jumped out of the stands and high-fived Robert Woods as he scored a touchdown. The rapper YG. Man, I remember I felt such pain. I think it was Anthony Barr for that game. I felt a lot of pain for him, unfortunately.

Like a pretty good coverage linebacker just getting caught over and over again with guys who are a little bit too fast for him. Yeah, that was one where there was some sort of misunderstanding about who was supposed to be where and he ended up on a go route on a wide receiver in the slot which is not exactly yeah there's cooper cup on that one yeah yeah and then i heard and this is where it's so fun to sort of go inside the game a little bit that um sean mcveigh had certain tendencies for his entire career about what the running back did in the red zone and he changed

it that game so there's a play where Todd Gurley blows by Anthony Barr but Anthony Barr had studied the tendencies about what he was going to do for that particular play that particular scheme and then McVay changed it just like the same look I mean it's it's amazing how these things happen so yes I do remember that and then Barr had a good rest of the year in coverage and no one cared like that was the only thing they remember that was seared into everyone's everyone's mind but I mean well mentioning Barr is another thing like injuries obviously you're going to have some players back and then the the young guys that you did have in coverage it's hard it's hard as a rookie to play in the NFL at cornerback I mean we, we saw what happened within the division

to the number three pick. I don't know why his name is escaping me right now for the Lions, but that was like you saw that. Jeff Okuda, yeah. Yeah, Jeff Okuda. Things did not go well. So it's a tough position to play. So that's another thing where that second-year leap,

maybe they can get that out of some players too. Yeah, no, that's right. And they need their help from Cameron Dantzler. They need Jeff Gladney maybe to solidify himself as a nickel corner. Like there's a lot of moving pieces here. On the offensive side, Kevin, I want to ask you about guard philosophy. Didn't you just hope that today when you woke up, someone would ask you about guard philosophy?

Yeah, of course. But I wrote a piece on going through all the Vikings guards since 2015, and they've never had repeat guard pair. In fact, only one player has even played guard for them two years in a row as a starter, as a full-time starter for a year since 2015. So that's a lot of, you know, musical chairs being played every offseason. How should teams who are cap strapped handle the guard position? And what I'm more directly asking is, did they do this wrong by trying to look for the million dollar guard who comes in and gives you decent play and just maybe should have invested more?

Or is it kind of like a bad luck thing where they took the right process for guards of trying to just find them and fill them in. And it hasn't worked out for them. Like if you were handling a cap strap team and didn't have a solid guard position, how would you deal with it? Yeah. I mean, it's as, as everything is a combination, combination of things. I think that the position is maybe more difficult to draft than some people may think.

I think people see it as a more projectable skill maybe than some others, and there's some truth to that but maybe not a whole lot of truth. I mean, what we've seen from guard play is a couple different things. One, the aging curve is a little bit slower on that, so sometimes you can find players in their second contract, and it's not as precipitous of a drop-off. So I think that works. I mean, two, it's kind of,

we talked about this like weak link versus strong link system. I mean, somewhat, at least for pass blocking, that's true of the offensive line also. So, you know, average play is a bigger delta there between replacement level play and average play than necessarily average play and elite play, depending upon who else is on that line. And typically, it takes time for offensive lines to work as a unit. And there's kind of this strange phenomenon where you saw it with the

Packers a little bit until it didn't work so well in the playoffs that sometimes if you have a good offensive line, even losing a player and another one coming in doesn't necessarily wreck it if you have the right system in place there. And again again it's kind of gaining that familiarity but then that was you know that that whole takeaway was a little bit thrown to the wind last year when you saw some offensive lines like the like the Browns offensive line with some new pieces and then Tampa Bay with some new pieces ended up being really really strong uh in their first year together right right so the Vikings have sort of taken this track where they try to fill in the pieces and they try to do what you're saying,

which is avoid the weakest link. Like they know that some of their free agents for a million bucks are not going to end up making all pro, but can you do just enough? It's just that they have swung and missed on those. I found something interesting studying little PFF numbers here, Kevin, tell me what you think of this. That in 2015, the 15th graded offensive line, offensive guard had a 70 grade. No, I've got this backwards.

That was this year. 15th best had a 70 grade, which is just okay. In 2015, that was 36th. So the guard play by the grades was much better in 2015 than it was last year and i wonder if i'm sure that the players didn't get worse at football i wonder if the teams attacking the interior with stunts and twists mixing in linebackers into that with an emphasis on interior rushers and even teams that are taking defensive ends and putting them over guards.

I wonder if this is making guard more valuable than it would have been before because teams have said, like, we're going to attack that. Yeah, I mean, I think that's definitely true. I remember we pushed back against some claims maybe a couple of years ago that were really leaning heavily on how important the interior offensive line was uh but from the perspective that quarterbacks get rid of the ball so quickly that that's the way to really affect things as opposed to you don't have time to come around the edge anyway i think there's some truth to that at the same point in time getting pressure on the edge is a lot more valuable than still getting pressure up the middle

because it more often is leading to sacks, leading to big plays if you get a fumble also on a play like that. So it's just more often it's going to really affect in a much stronger negative manner if you're getting pressure around the edge. But, yeah, that's definitely true. true um I also think last year I'd have to look it up a bit more but it was a decent um overall year for for tackles because they just kind of stopped calling holding last year so that that helped maybe there was a differential between guard and tackle play and how much they benefited from that yeah that was right about halfway through the season you looked up you're like I think uh the Vikings have like six penalties for the whole season yeah so that was yeah i mean i'm not against it let them hold more time for quarterbacks to throw the ball more fun for us to watch it but i think mike

zimmer would probably strongly disagree with my statement there uh two more quick things from you the the draft how is there any way in your improvement index to figure out how much a draft is going to improve a team I know that you guys try to project what someone's going to do but right away is tough Laquan Treadwell comes into the Vikings with expectations of being a big receiver for them and catches one pass in his first season and what a catch it was uh and then Justin Jefferson it was a good route third down uh it was against the Lions I remember it. And then Justin Jefferson, it was, it was a good route. Third down, it was against the Lions. I remember it so well. Justin Jefferson, I don't remember all of his catches because there were a ton of them and he was incredible. These are two first round receivers

taken in about the same place with high pedigree. Like, how do you figure this out? And part of the reason I ask is because as we go through the Vikings needs, some of these needs are going to have to come from the draft. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the, the, the best way that we've tried to figure that out is you're going to look at everything as kind of a range of outcomes, as you mentioned, I mean, that's the thing is sometimes you're going to get a Treadwell. Sometimes you're going to get a Jefferson, but you're not going to get either very often, quite honestly. So I think, if anything, there could be some teams after a couple of great wide receiver drafts in a row who are thinking – and then maybe that affected the wide receiver free agency market this year – thinking, you know what? You just grab a wide receiver at the end of the first round or in the second round, and you're set. They'll come in, and they'll produce immediately, when before the logic, the going logic was they all stink. All these first-round wide receivers are no good after what happened in the 2015 draft and others.

So I would say, you know, it's a range of outcomes. It depends on the position, how well they play initially. I mean, running back is a position, unsurprisingly, which plays really well right out of the box, and then it kind of declines over time. Edge rusher is another one that can be good, although normally it's on somewhat limited playing time. The edge rusher could be pretty good to start off with. Receiver normally takes a little bit of time to come up, but they do have those high-end

outcomes right off the gate. Tight ends, you don't really have those high-end outcomes right off the gate. Almost never does that end up happening, so takes a few seasons to to get better i mean i think from the vikings perspective is this again is another year where i don't know how much future planning is really is really going into it so you're probably going to want impact players immediately and i think maybe some of the mistakes of some of these drafts that we that we talked about um as far as picking players whether in the interior offensive line and others was trying to to fill holes and you

just don't know that those guys are going to be successful so sometimes it's better to look free agency there and you know take swings and take swings at players elsewhere not you know even though they may fail sometimes you're really just going to get a bigger benefit out of out of hitting on one out of three players than you are on hitting softly for decent play on all three. It just doesn't happen as much as people think. Yeah, and so this team has really drafted for need a lot because they've been in wind-out mode for quite a while, even though they shouldn't have been last year, taking a step back. But drafting for a major need landed them just to Jefferson. Maybe they would have taken him anyway because I think he was really high on their board but someone like jeff gladney that one might feel more like a reach like you you

took somebody who some people had as a second round talent at the end of the first because you knew you desperately needed a corner and that's why i always think uh it's the biggest difference in opinion between what we can do on the outside when you keep your job at PFF and I keep running Purple Insider and other people get fired is that we could say, hey, just take the best guy available. And even if he doesn't play right away, that's fine. Well, they can't always think that way. And that's the spot that we're in here. Now, the last thing I want to ask you, Kevin, is which signing this year, any team, did you look at and go, huh?

Like what? Excuse me? The one that you would say this one is the bust signing. This is not going to work out. That is blank. Well, you know, I probably don't want to look at anything and say it's going to be a bust or not because. Oh, come on, Kevin. You just never know it's going to be a bust or not because oh come on kevin you just never know it's gonna be call them out i can say i can say it's like there's definitely signings where i say hey this is a bad like risk reward type of type of signing like i don't understand

why you would do that and even though i have the the patriots near the top of the list i mean bringing in i mean bringing in aguilar and thenedrick Bourne at the levels that they did, you know, it's just like, I don't know. I just don't quite get it. Just buying players. I mean, Aguilar, I think in particular, I think it's $12 million or something like that a year that he ends up earning. I don't quite get that. And I know that this was probably going to be an unpopular take because, again, it has nothing to do with being a bust or not. It definitely doesn't mean it's a bust.

But, I mean, I think the Trent Williams contract, I know a lot of people like that. There's some great clips out there, okay? You go on Twitter, you're going to see there may be a bit of being tricked into saying these other tackles have performed so well in their mid-30s, so therefore we're just going to ignore the fact that it's happened before. flip from one way to another. First-round wide receivers are awful because you had all these years of your Kevin Whites and your Brashad Perrymans and your Laquan Treadwells and Corey Coleman's and all those guys who went, and now it's the opposite. Now people think the opposite. It can happen sometimes with these older tackles where you saw Jason Peters do particularly well. I guess Dwayne Brown's done pretty well. You mentioned Andrew Whitworth has done really well. Well, you know, those positions does seem to maintain, but if he ends up going off of a cliff or not performing as well,

that's a ton of money. That's a ton of money for an older player, and I just don't know. It was just a bad series, like trading for him, waiting, free agency, paying a ton of money. I'm just not a fan of that particular signing. And I remember last year, the Vikings chased after him. And I remember not being super high on it because of the same reason. Like this is a guy who does have an injury history and who is in his thirties. And I mean, the 49ers might be in more of a position where they feel like they can

go win the Superbowl right now. And maybe they're justified in that and he'll play a big role. And then you don't have to apologize to anyone when that contract blows up on you right it's like right you know then you get to hold up the ring and that's it but um big risk on that one and you're right he played tremendously well i think he was pff's number one tackle yeah yeah but when you get one of the best grades i think we've ever seen again with help that the whole holding was was down but i guess i just kind of look at it and say, if you would have extended him the moment you made that trade, what would you have paid him versus what you're paying now?

And it's a lot more now. I think it's a lot more now. Yeah, no, that's a great point. And especially since everybody found out that 17-game season might be on the way and more TV money, they're like, hey, next year that cap hit. You can handle it. You've got the money. So, Kevin, this is great cap hit, you can handle it. You've got the money. So, Kevin, this is great. Actually, how about this then? If you're not going to give me like the absolute bust, give me your favorite one that's ever busted. I've mentioned on the show Brock

Osweiler, where no way, no way this works to give Brock Osweiler four years, 72 million. And that one was over fast. Your favorite free agency bust ever? My favorite free agency bust ever. Well, let me think here. Just use football team. Football team, you start there, the wheels will start turning. Yeah, there are too many together. Well, I mean, that was my favorite one, but I remember I bought in,

being an analytics person, you know, I bought in on the Sashi Brown and what the Browns were doing there. And believe it or not, there was like a pretty big backlash on the fact that they did not sign Terrell prior to a contract there. And it was like a total mismanagement and what are they thinking? And, you know, this is totally inept and everything else. So at least that was one that I didn't mind see blow up there because of the fact that it was a one-year wonder sort of breakout on a team where they literally had no one else to throw it to.

So there was a lot of elements that went into there. So I don't mind seeing situations like that. I don't like to root against players, but I don't mind seeing situations like that blow up where you just have a lot of flashing red warning signs, maybe in the same way, as I mentioned, these Patriots wide receiver signings that you're seeing here. It's just don't sign guys off of career years. Terrell Pryor is a great pick.

I mean, that's one I didn't think of, but that's a great one. I was thinking back to like Bruce Smith and Deion Sanders and all those guys signing with Washington. Like, just classic, just classic. Now, if you had wanted a real mic drop moment on the show, you could have said, Kirk Cousins, and then just thrown your mic and shut off the Zoom call. We have to defend Kirk Cousins.

He pretends at least to read our research, so we have to defend Kirk Cousins. He pretends at least to read our research, so we have to defend him at all costs. Yeah, I think he asks someone else with the Vikings to tell him what your research says, is my understanding. However it works, however it works. As long as he's matching it, then we'll take it. He understands his play action numbers are good. So, Kevin Cole, the Unexpected Points podcast, which if you're a nerd, you know how good that is, how good of a name that is.

And if you're not, then you might not listen to it anyway. So Unexpected Points podcast, your improvement index is awesome. PFF.com is where people can check you out. Thanks, man. I'm really glad we could get together again. Yeah, this was great. Thanks for having me. Folks, the football offseason is off and rolling,

and SodaStick has you covered with Minnesota sports-themed gear. Some of my favorite football designs that you have to check out include the Chuck Foreman Spin Doctor gear. You can commemorate Randy Moss' disgusting act on a shirt or a hoodie. And if you're old school, check out the Purple People Eaters design as well. Go to SodaStick.com and check them all out. If you use the promo code Purple Insider, you can get free shipping on all your Minnesota sports-inspired gear. All of their apparel is screen printed here in Minnesota on super soft, super comfy shirts and hoodies. You will love it. Plus, keep your eyes and ears out for our

giveaways going on on this show as well on social media. Follow them at SodaStickCo on Twitter and at SodaStick.com for your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. Code PURPLEINSIDER for free shipping. Hey, everyone. I want to tell you about our friends at Scout Logistics. And I really do mean it when I say friends. They are fans of Purple Insider over at Scout Logistics, and since they reached out wanting to support this show, I want to tell you about what they do.

Scout Logistics is just-in-time transportation for full tractor-trailer loads, and if you're wondering what that means exactly, well, if you own or work for a company that needs shipping solutions, they are the preferred carrier of Fortune 500 companies across North America, and we have quite a few of those in Minnesota, right? They can ship perishable, non-perishable, FTL or LTL, and they have on-time delivery rate of over 99%. So if you're like them and you enjoy the show and you have shipping needs,

check out ScoutLogistics.com or call 855-217-2688 extension 232 to connect with them directly to find out how Scout Logistics can minimize risk and overperform and go the extra mile for your company. All right, before we wrap up, I want to bring you the best and most interesting comments from Patrick Peterson in his Monday press conference to be introduced here as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. Rick Spielman talked about why they wanted Patrick Peterson, and he was asked a bunch of different questions, everything from Larry Fitzgerald's impact on him as a player to whether he'll definitely be playing cornerback and about the last two years,

which have not gone necessarily as well as his previous seasons in the NFL. So here's the most interesting things that Patrick Peterson had to say. We always try to not only bring the best football players in here, but great people. And there's no question his qualifications are on the field. And I know how excited Coach Zim is and our defensive staff to start working with him and the experience he's going to bring to our young group on the back end. But I also know that he has a lot of football left. And usually when you bet on guys that have the pedigree that he has, you're going to get some outstanding football going forward. And I know he has a lot to prove to a lot of people.

And he didn't have anything to prove to us because we already know what type of football player he is. But just visiting with him over the last hour or so, just getting to know him a little bit, I know we brought in a great person and what him and his family stand for. Coach Zimmer himself stood out to me. Just his reputation speaks for itself.

The things that he's able to do with the defense, not only with the defense, but with defensive backs. Speaking of Deion Sanders, Leon Hall, Tans Newman, Jonathan Joseph, the list goes on. And he's able to help further those guys' career. And if you look at all of those guys career those guys play you know 13 14 plus years so Kozim definitely have uh something something that uh he's giving those guys to not only help you know prepare their career into

into new heights but also you know help their career be a longevity career as well. So I just thought, you know, the culture around here, the atmosphere around here was everything for me. I believe it definitely checked off all the boxes. I'm excited to be here, and I'm excited to get rolling. Yes, Patrick, I'm wondering, from Minnesota here, Larry Fitzgerald obviously grew up here how much did Larry Fitzgerald help you uh grow by going against him in practice and then kind of

his work ethic that he brought to the game uh Larry is uh just an unbelievable pro I tell him all the time I just thank him for helping me understand how to be a pro you know most guys see you know him working out see him doing certain things you know uh out on the practice field before everybody else but a lot of guys don't understand how to be a pro you know guys see what it looks like but they don't understand how to be a pro and larry did a great job of teaching me that, taking me up on his wing. He was the guy who picked me up from the airport in that lockout season. I remember me and my wife, my fiancee at the time, packing up all of our luggage in the back of his Bentley car.

And, you know, for him, I think Larry was in the league seven years at a time, seven, eight years. He didn't have to do that. And by him, you know, showing his characteristics and showing the man that he really is, you know, that's one of the guys I wanted to follow. And from that day on, just, you know, had a great big brother, a great mentor, a great teammate.

Everything you can ask for, Larry has definitely been great to me and my family. So, you know, I know he hasn't made a decision yet if he's going to play or not, but I'm definitely going to miss being around Big Bro. Hi, Patrick. I was hoping to talk a little more about Mike Zimmer and what you see there and just maybe schematically and what you see on his defense and where you might fit and just what it's like to compete against him in the times that you have?

One thing I can say, you know, competing against Coach Zim, his team's going to be well-prepared, his team's going to be competitive, and his team is going to be relentless. You know, having the opportunity to be recruited by Coach Zim, too, being drafted in 2011, He was a defensive coordinator over at Cincinnati and have an opportunity to pick his brain and just seeing the history and his, his track record of some of the guys that he was able to work with throughout his NFL career, his very long NFL career.

And it just made, it just made sense to me, you know, because I feel like, like I said, I have a lot left in the tank, and every cornerback or, you know, every defensive back that Coach Zim had the opportunity to help, you know, take their game to the next level, he's done that. You know, his defense itself, you know, is always in the top ten. You know, I think last year was probably his worst finish since he's been here as a head coach. And just, like I said, just the tenacity that his team has

when they step out on the football field on Sunday, it just goes to show that, like I said, his teams are well-prepared and they just have a relentless mindset that's undeniable. So that's why I wanted to be a part of this organization, Coach Zim football team. Hey, Patrick, you know, as you hit the age 30 mark, what are some routines and habits that you've gotten into to make sure that father time doesn't catch up to you?

And how have you kept your body in shape? Oh, man, just honestly, just continually working around the clock. There's no off seasons because the time that you take a break or let your body go in this relaxed state, that's when you're going to lose a step

because at the same time, your body is not able to recover or bounce back as quickly or as efficient as it was, you know, in your earlier years. So I try to work around the clock, just try to keep my body acclimated of always being in some type of exhorted, you know, exercise or, you know, always just push an envelope to where once I do roll into the season on Sunday, roll into the season, I'm going to be in well shape.

My body's going to be well conditioned. And I do necessarily things throughout the week to make sure that I don't have these knacks and bruises and these aches to where I can be at a high, I can play at my best on Sundays. And I think, you know, the regimen I've been on for the, you know, last eight, nine years, it's been great to me. You know, I haven't missed any time due to injuries. You know, so I just, I think I'm doing something right.

So I want to keep it going in the right direction so I can fulfill my my goal of my NFL playing career. Hi Patrick did the Vikings pursue you as a cornerback or do you envision potentially that this might be where you move to safety I know on Brandon Marshall's podcast you said you were open to that idea do you know kind of what the plan is, where you might be playing in 2021? I believe the plan is me playing cornerback. I believe, like Rick alluded to, I know that I have a lot left in the tank. You know, I feel that, you know, I still have a good position as far as being in a position to make plays at the cornerback position.

So I know I can still play at a high level. So my position will be cornerback for sure. Patrick, Rick mentioned that there's still a lot to prove. I guess looking back at the last two years, how do you think those went? And when you look at those, is there, you know, any area that you're looking to improve on coming into this season? You know, I don't think the last two seasons, you know, definitely went as planned, having, you know, year before having to serve that six-game suspension, last year having little ebbs and flows throughout the season. You know, I can't really point at, you know, what caused that or whatever.

You know, I just know there's long seasons, and things happen throughout the season to where not necessarily get thrown off track or anything like that. It's just, you know, you just have to find ways. With me being in this game for a very long time, when things don't go right, you just have to stick to the strip. And, you know, with me playing 150-something games, you know, I've been through worse times.

I've been through the good times. I've been through the bad times. Just as long as I find a way to stick to the strip and fall back on my fundamentals, I know I'll be okay. So now having a fresh start, new scenery, fresh air, I think it's going to be great for me.