Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - PFF's Steve Palazzolo joins to talk Vikings future and what we have learned about the NFL this year

Episode Date: December 24, 2021

Matthew Coller opens the show with an update on the Vikings' injury situation with Adam Thielen and CJ Ham and then talks about how COVID will keep Andre Patterson out of Sunday's game. Then Pro Football Focus's Steve Palazzolo joins to talk about the state of quarterback play in the NFL and why it has been mostly poor this season and whether we're seeing a transition from the all-time great QBs to the next wave. Steve thinks the Vikings should keep leaning into Kirk Cousins but it's unclear what their future is at QB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oh, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here, and a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone listening and thank you so much for your support all year long listening to our show. It's been really fun to see the growth that we've been able to make this year in a crazy Viking season so I just wanted to start off the show by saying how appreciative I am of all of you who take the time to listen on a daily basis and I hear from so many of you all the time, Twitter, emails, and everything else. And that's been a really fun part of doing this is just how many people have good questions or comments

or interesting things that bring up topics on the show. So the interactive nature of this thing is very much appreciated. So thank you all for that. And hope you are happy and healthy and safe for this holiday season. So let's get into the opening drive here before we talk to Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus about what we've learned about the NFL this season. So I want to run through these about two minutes at a time as we do occasionally on the opening drive.

And I like to keep it to two minutes so I don't ramble on and make it a whole podcast just trying to update you on what's going on with injury reports. Okay, so let's start out with Adam Thielen and CJ Hamm are both questionable. I don't really need to explain Adam Thielen and his value to this thing. I think we've seen it over the last couple of weeks that KJ Osborne is effective as a number two wide receiver. I don't think that he's lost out there like they would have been in previous years with their number threes bumping up to the number two spot. But I also don't think that KJ Osborne is Adam Thielen because Thielen's still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And as the Vikings play a team with the truest of true shutdown corners in Jalen Ramsey, having Adam Thielen back,

if he is able to come back, and he did practice somewhat this week, is a big deal to have that other guy that they could target if Jalen Ramsey is all over Justin Jefferson. I imagine that they're still going to try to target Jefferson and use different little tricks to get Ramsey away from him, like bunch formations, motion, things like that. But Thielen matching up against other people not named Jalen Ramsey is a hugely positive matchup. And it's, I think one of the reasons for his success is that they've always had a Diggs or a Jefferson that's drawing attention. And then Thielen can just demolish most number two corners. So we'll see what kind of shape he's in when he warms up. Because last week he thought that he was going to have a chance to play, got out to warmups,

couldn't really explode the way he wanted to. So that's going to be a story as we lead up to Vikings and Rams is just, is Adam Thielen able to go? And then how effective is he? And do not underrate CJ Hamm if he can't play. Now he's a fullback so you know questionable means he's playing usually but uh if cj ham is held out of this game he has been getting a ton of snaps and i mean a ton you rarely see a fullback getting 38 44 53 snaps in weeks 12 13 14

and they're using him a lot at tight end. He was in week 14 at tight end, 14 plays, and this year overall, 94 plays as a tight end. And he's also lined up in the slot 14 times, wide receiver seven times, and they move him around in the backfield. He's a great blocker. I mean, you guys know what he does, but I think there's that element of being able to move him to different spots uh and and kind of throw off the defense is not used to having a player that versatile it's a big deal it's not something that everybody can do and i think locally cj ham gets his credit but you know it's not exactly a guy that's going to be celebrated nationally that's why on the show we try to appreciate fullback so that's something to watch too, big time, I think,

because there isn't really anybody behind him. They've tried to fill in the tight end spots with Chris Herndon, Luke Stocker. It has been pretty much a failure there. So C.J. Hamm's status really matters. All right, our next down on the opening drive here, and I already ran out of time. I mismanaged the clock, so sorry, guys. That does happen

in Minnesota. Sometimes Mason Cole placed on IR. Um, so I went back and I looked at guards that we talked about in free agency, just to think like, was I, was I crazy this off season or did the Vikings have options at guard in free agency that they decided that just, we're going to look at all the cornerbacks instead and maybe bring in another nose tackle, which look, Dalvin Tomlinson has been fine. But Matt Filer, who signed with Los Angeles for three years, 21 million is seventh by pro football focus. Kevin Zeitler, who signed for three years, 22 million is 10th. Quinton Spain, who is a bottom of the barrel guy is ninth. Trey Turner, who I was very skeptical of,

is 28th out of about 60 guards by PFF. And there are failed signings. Of course there are every year where guys get brought in and they don't perform quite the way that they were expected to, or people look for that bottom of the barrel signing that they hope turns out to be a big hit and it doesn't work. But the Vikings essentially just punted on trying to find a veteran right guard. And this year we've done the thing that we've done over and over again. And, you know, I know there's the definition of insanity thing that everybody brings up, but it's also the definition of like, just like not being a great front office is to make the same mistakes over and over again.

And with the right guard position, the whole point of the exercise is just there were people out there who could have vastly improved the offensive line. And instead, the idea was to hope a third remains not ready, kind of amazingly, honestly, is to just throw a tackle in there at right guard. And it would appear now that Mason Cole is out that Ole Udo will come back in, but it could also be Dakota Dozier. And that would also be insanity to continue to bring back Dakota Dozier and have him play. I mean, this is a thing that when they look at the totality of how the front office has performed and the decisions they've made, this guard position is one where you have to point to and go, why wasn't this ever been able to be filled? And guard, center, the interior of the line, and that will especially be on display as they face off with Aaron Donald. Andre Patterson is not going to be able to coach on Sunday because he has COVID.

And Mike Zimmer said he's not doing very well. So, you know, hopefully Andre fights this thing and is okay and moves forward. But this is actually a loss for game day because Andre Patterson is responsible for the defensive line rotation. So he's deciding who's on the field on the defensive line. That's usually how it works for position coaches is that one of their major roles is to make the substitution. So it's not Mike Zimmer saying, Hey, put in Delvin, take out Delvin.

I'm sure he discusses that with Kennedy Palomaro, who's the running back coach, but Palomaro is largely responsible for who goes in. Same thing goes for Andre Patterson with the defensive line. So when you see, oh, they're playing this guy at this position, well, that's an Andre Patterson decision. And so now that gets kicked down the line. And, you know, as you look around the league, the NFL just always finds a way to make everything into a storyline. This player's in, this player's out. How will this team adjust to COVID? Wow, they're so heroic in overcoming whatever with COVID. But, you know, when someone like Andre Patterson ends up seriously dealing with the illness here,

and you sort of pull back and go, man, this thing is dark. Like, man, this whole season, and especially the second half of the year has been it's really frustrating and sad and you wonder like when do we get the next NFL season like what year and I don't have an answer for this it's just expressing frustration like what year do we have where COVID is not taking players off the field where coaches aren't getting sick coaches are having to coach from home and Zoom calls and everything. Like what year is that going to happen? And then that's, you know, just the whole thing has become very tedious and frustrating. And it looks like we even as reporters are going to have to go with outbreaks and things

like that to doing it virtually again, which was just a miserable experience last year for trying to cover the team. that to doing it virtually again, which was just a miserable experience last year for trying to cover the team. So, you know, I guess I guess I'm just complaining about it. I don't really have any solution, but Andre Patterson is an older guy and you just hope that he's OK in dealing with COVID. And the Vikings already had a player end up in the hospital this year. So, you know, as it continues to spread and

we continue to push forward with the football season, there are times where you look at it and go, man, what are we doing here? Speaking of which, Taysom Hill is not going to play for the Saints. So they're down to their fourth quarterback, which somebody on Twitter reminded me of the 1999 New Orleans Saints who had to go to four quarterbacks and one at the end of the year on their fourth quarterback, which was Jake Delome, who turned out to be a really good quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. And that team for new Orleans had Danny Warfel, Billy Joe Tolliver, and Billy Joe Hobart, which has to be a record for Billy Joe. So Ian book, who was a guy that I looked at at the Senior Bowl a

little bit, and Sage Rosenfels actually worked with him, former Viking quarterback, who if you've listened to the show for a long time, you know Sage. He actually worked with Ian Book in the offseason. He's a really good athlete, but I don't know if he's ready to play starting quarterback in the NFL. And here's another break for the Vikings in the playoff race. And that's why, as we get to the end of the year, if you miss the postseason, there's just no excuses. There's no talking your way out of it. There's no point in any fingers.

It's everybody failed because the entire league gave you so many opportunities, including now the New Orleans Saints having to play with four quarterbacks. If you miss a playoff spot and seven seed to a team that had to play four quarterbacks, you should just be ashamed of yourself. There's not like, I don't care if you missed field goals at the end of games or whatever else like that, that's just a complete failure. Um, so anyway, last thing, Christmas day always would represent video game day for me as a kid growing up. And there was a blue wire tweets, our friends at blue wire that tweeted out like, what's the best football game ever? And for me, it's ESPN 2K5. Tech Mobile 3, I think was the best version of Tech Mobile. And then if you're a little bit younger, then NCAA 2014 is an incredible game. And hopefully at some point it comes back. But it was always a great time to kind of get, you know, run downstairs, open up the presents.

And there's always a Madden there or the 2K5 when that came out. I really wanted that game because of the great reviews. And then, you know, run in, throw it in the system, start playing it. And by the time you get to Christmas, you're late in the NFL season. So you've been waiting all year for this, right? To get in there and get to the new features and everything else. So I wish you the type of joy that I had growing up getting that video game on Christmas day. So thank you again to everybody who has listened this year, Steve Palazzolo from Pro Football Focus coming up next to talk about what we have learned this season. And I will talk

to you again after Vikings and Rams. We'll see you later. Steve, you're wearing your moose sweater. It's just, this is probably an, I think an elite Christmas style sweater when you can bring in an animal that is not necessarily related to Christmas, but it's just large and has antlers. And so it is suddenly a Christmas animal,

stamp it on a sweater and then off you go. Yeah. As long as you have the Christmas tree there, you know, it kind of pulls it all together. You have a green and some reds and all that stuff. And you get yourself a Christmas sweater. So I only get to rock this a couple of times a year. So you gotta, you gotta take advantage here. You know, you gotta take advantage.

Well, you, I would love to see the size of this Christmas sweater because you're 6'9". This has to be almost like a Christmas bag. Could be a blanket for others. Yeah, for most people. Well, I wanted to compliment you first before we get going. What you and Sam Monson are doing for charitable causes with your show, which included you guys going to the University of Cincinnati

and having you, a former minor league baseball pitcher, throw him pitches and have him whiff on almost all of them, except for one infield pop fly. It was a re it was a really fun bit, but people should go check out your show because it's great, but also get involved in the things that you guys are doing to give back and even help with the Kentucky tornado effort too, as well.

Yeah. Appreciate it. I mean, it started out, this whole thing started out innocently where Sam was like, Hey, you should pick out your hair. Cause I used to have a, I can pick out my hair into a huge Afro. I said, I can be a thousand dollars and I'll do it. And he's like, okay, I'll raise that money. And I was like, well, I'm not taking the money. We'll give it to charity. And we've had five charity drives doing fun stuff on top of it.

This was supposed to be Sam's like quote unquote punishment trying to hit against me. Turns out it was my punishment because my arm was sore for a week. I only threw 73, 74 miles an hour, a little embarrassing. And I couldn't throw strikes. Hadn't been on the mound in a while, but it was a lot of fun. We've been having a lot of fun with all of it. Hey, I think that if you're still getting it over 70 miles an hour, and if you haven't pitched in a really long time,

because it goes away fast and it's just like anything else. Like I like to jog and stuff, but if I go two days without jogging or three days without jogging, the next time I go out there, pretty winded. So I think it's the same way with your arm. So I was still impressed. I was hoping it was going to be like the rookie. Was it Morris or whatever his name was where he's just

like i mean he was throwing batting practice every day but yeah after eight years off his arm was healthy and he was throwing 98 i was hoping eight years rest would would help me go the other way and i started throwing 100 but that it just didn't happen there just so happens to be a cincinnati red scout just wandering by like who's this giant man right exactly putting football and i'll go back we'll go back to double a here don't worry 86 88 92 who is this guy oh man yeah i didn't really live my dream but it was a lot of fun no not exactly but uh it's it's great what you guys are doing and of course i really enjoy listening to your show and And I had an idea of just kind of being as we approach the very end of the year of talking about kind of what we know about the NFL

now. And I wanted to start with, I know that every year we enter thinking that the NFL has amazing quarterback play and that all the teams are set at quarterback, except for maybe one or two, but everybody else, they know who their guy is. And then one year later by December, we're always going, let's see, that's about 13 teams who need a quarterback. And I wonder what you think of just the state of quarterback play this year, because maybe it was empty stadiums or maybe it was referees not calling holding at all in in 2020 but it feels like the environment has been much tougher on quarterbacks this year i'm interested in your thoughts yeah it's definitely not a great year for overall quarterback play um and it's not that it's been bad across the board

but you also just you don't have that like standout elite season i think aaron rogers was a clear number one last year and Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson in 2019 and Mahomes when he was healthy and Mahomes in 18 and Drew Brees and Tom Brady for years, right? Just head and shoulders above another tier of quarterbacks. I really think what we might be entering though is this world that I envisioned a few years ago that could be coming to pass, which was when Brady gets too old when aaron rogers gets too old when drew brees is gone peyton manning right all those guys like i think there's a pretty clear those are the top four guys for 10 to 15 years overall when you look at it then there was a next tier of guys i think

the ben roethlisberger's of the world matt ryan's i think russell wilson's been in there right but but those guys start to get a little bit older, and you don't know who's in that number one overall tier. I kind of envision this world where the quarterback play, QB1 to 25, is closer than ever. I don't know if that's the case necessarily this year, but there's probably elements of that because Mahomes hasn't played at that same level this year.

Rodgers has played at that level at times, but let's not forget he's had some duds in there as well. Tom Brady kind of started out at an elite level. He's leveled off recently. So there is no clear standout. Deshaun Watson was kind of at that level last year. He's not playing this year. So to me, it's like quarterback parity a little bit. And then I think then you go to like the next, you know, you know, tiebreaker, which is like, okay, how do you support these guys? What do you put around these quarterbacks? So I think this would be fun, right? Like, if this is what the NFL was, if you didn't have a true like, hey, Patrick Mahomes

is going to be in the Super Bowl for 10 out of the next 12 years. If that didn't exist, it would be a pretty fun NFL. And I think we're seeing elements of that didn't exist, it would be a pretty fun NFL. And I think we're seeing elements of that where this year, where because there's no quarterback just straight dominating and carrying the team, you can look around and say, who's the best team in the NFL? And it changes every single week and there's crazy upsets. And I think that's just kind of where we are.

Now on the bottom end of that, as far as the teams like 13 teams need a new quarterback, that's the interesting one to me because i also think we're at this point where i don't know i think there's enough starting quarterbacks to go around but do you want one of those lower end starting quarterbacks like daniel jones is a starting caliber quarterback in the nfl but do you want him to be your guy going forward i keep using i always use marcus mariota as an example he's the backup for the raiders he's he's a top 30 quarterback in the world, right? I mean, he's a starting caliber quarterback.

So I think finding a starter might be easier than ever, but finding a guy that you really want to hit your wagon to, I think that's figuring out where that cutoff point is, is the tricky part. Yeah. I mean, how badly would like New Orleans like to have Marcus Mariota at that point? They're probably like a 10 win team if they ended up having him. And I still thought that Denver should have traded Teddy Bridgewater to new Orleans because apparently there was interest there.

And I think that would have worked out for, for both teams. But I think you make a really interesting point. And I, and I wonder if we've learned that in a way there is a next sort of that thing. I don't know if we recognized by Peyyton manning's second or third year that he was going to be peyton manning for his entire career like we knew he was good but justin herbert and joe burrow it feels like there's there's this same thing that was in the afc forever where it was rothasberger and it was Rivers and it was Brady and Manning. And those guys were just going to be there at the end of every year.

And it feels like we've learned that Herbert and Mahomes and Burrow are going to be there every year. Is that too much to say about Burrow and Herbert that they have the potential to be those guys in the AFC for the future? Because I mean, I feel like I want to kind of go there. Yeah, I don't think it's too much to say, but then I would throw Josh Allen's name in the mix and Lamar Jackson's name in the mix, right?

And then when you look at that, the phrase I always use is that, you know, quarterback growth isn't always linear. This isn't a game of Madden where, okay, Justin Herbert's this good in year two. Imagine what he'll be in year five. Imagine if you said that about Lamar Jackson after year two, when he won his MVP.

Lamar Jackson's regressed a little bit this year. And maybe it's unfair to even call it regression as in, it's just there's natural ups and downs in players' careers. It's not always perfect. So that would be like my only caveat to that. It's like, all right, let's see a little bit more of Herbert. Let's see a little bit more of Burrow before you establish them in that mix but I think that is it is an exciting time in the AFC for sure because again Mahomes he's special regardless of what the

PFF grade says this year he's a special quarterback he's got three elite seasons under his belt Herbert and Burrow look like they they are that next uh the next young guys that are going to be a part of that, call it top eight tier, top eight, top ten group of quarterbacks. But then you have Lamar Jackson. You have Josh Allen, right? I mean, Allen's had his ups and downs. Lamar's had his ups and downs, but they're capable. They're capable of getting out there and carrying the team. Even just what Mac Jones is doing in New England,

playing efficient football as part of an overall pretty solid team. He deserves credit for that. Nobody thought the Patriots were a great team coming in. The narrative has changed a little bit. Matt Jones has been a part of their success. So I think we're at an intriguing time where there's a lot, again, there's a lot of capable quarterbacks and then there's guys like

a Burrow or a Herbert. They have shown some star power and I think they do have that potential to be those top eight to 10 guys in that mix, you know, for the foreseeable future. And it's funny from a Vikings perspective, how many of these guys are in the AFC? They just, I mean, it could be random that way, but I mean, you have Kyler Murray, of course, in the NFC.

And then after that, though, it's like, we don't know. Well, Dak, Dak Prescott, but like like where is Russell Wilson playing is Jimmy Garoppolo actually good which seems like a PFF debate I've always leaned on the side of Jimmy Garoppolo is actually good um and part of it for me and maybe this is just sort of a surface level thing but every time the guy's out they're portable and every time he's in they're good and it seems to be a pretty big difference between whoever but then again when he's out uh san francisco geniusly had nick mullins as their backup so that would kind of skew that number but i mean you have a guy who operates that offense like really well it seems and every year he's healthy they're in it but i'm not going to say

he's like a joe burrow who i think has kind of carried cincinnati with his play i'm not going to say he's like a Joe Burrow, who I think has kind of carried Cincinnati with his play. I'm not sure they have great coaching. They do have good weapons, but they don't have a great line. Like you could see where Burrow can overcome things, but someone like Jimmy Garoppolo can't. And maybe there is a future where there are half the league is guys that are between an eight and a nine and no one's really a 10. Maybe it's Mahomes or maybe it's not. And it ends up being coaching that sort of emerges. And I feel like this year more than ever, when I'm just watching football,

if I see a poorly coached team versus a well-coached team, I'm feeling like there's a bigger gap than maybe ever. Yeah. And here's, it's just, it's a bigger gap than maybe ever. Yeah, and it's just a fun discussion. On the Garoppolo stuff, I would say if you – I don't know how much we – are we allowed to talk about QB wins? I feel like you always have the safe space to talk about quarterback wins. Yes.

If you just want to use wins and losses, I mean, Garoppolo, he's winned over 70% of his games that he starts. The Niners win those games, which is why I thought when people were criticizing Kyle Shanahan, I'm like, when he has his starting quarterback that he handpicked four years ago, they win 70% of their games. When he has Nick Mullins and C.J. Beathard, he doesn't. But when he has Nick Mullins, he creates offense, right?

Mullins had something like the most passing yards in the first 16 starts outside of Mahomes. So that's like that disconnect, right? Garoppolo wins, the team's different, but Shanahan always gets the most from a production standpoint out of his guys, which is fine. But I think that shows the importance of coaching and the importance of scheme and system.

And the thing I would add to that is think about a lot of the storylines this year, like, oh, the Chiefs have been figured out, or the Bills are getting figured out or whatever it is, which is just called the NFL. Right. Like the Chiefs have been tearing apart the NFL for three plus years now. And all of a sudden they started doing different things schematically. I mean, that's just called the NFL. Right. They adjust. Right. Nobody's been people have thrown everything at Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers through the years. They didn't just let it, but they've been able to, you

haven't seen a drop off in their production because they know how to adjust. They know how to handle two high coverages and single high coverages and man and zone and all that stuff. So that's where coaching does come in. Coaching's not like I've got this playbook that is special and shiny and no one

else has these plays. It's knowing how to adjust to what the league is doing and you know shiny and no one else has these plays it's knowing how to adjust to what the league is doing it's you and that back and forth right so i think that's why coaching is important right so that's one of the narratives on on sean mcveigh right his offense is always good and then it slows down and people adjust to it and he doesn't have a he doesn't have a curveball he doesn't have a counter punch um. I think that's where the coaching really comes in. It's not that guys have a special set of plays that the rest of the league doesn't have. It's having adjustments to what defenses throw at you. I do think it's maybe more important than ever. It's still a pass-first league

despite what we've seen these last few weeks. It's a pass-the-ball-stop-the-pass type of league and the coaches who could figure out how to efficiently pass the ball, I think are always going to put their team in a better position to succeed down the road. And there's a different element too with coaching and how much they get out of their quarterback is how much you kind of allow your quarterback to do. And I think that this is the Jimmy Garoppolo part.

And there's also like video clips of Jimmy Garoppolo spinning around all weird and under pressure and I you know I don't think that he's good at all when things are thrown off but also if it's third and long he has this really quick release and he's got the arm like he's got the arm talent to convert third downs which I think is just such a big deal and if you have an offense that gets you in good situations and then it all kind of comes together. But it's always interesting to me, like the positions that coaches put their quarterbacks in and what they ask them to do. And I think that just when I was in Chicago, I saw an offense that asks Justin Fields to do a ton when Justin Fields cannot do a ton at this point. I see every week an offense with Kirk Cousins

that just tries to get him as many easy open throws as they can because they know there's no real playmaking there, that he has to roll out and things like that. And I think that all these things, when you're trying to evaluate what you're doing as a franchise going forward with your quarterback like the Vikings are, you kind of have to consider how much have we, have we gotten as a franchise? If you own the franchise, have we gotten everything out of this quarterback

or is it something we can do with our coach to get more? Is it something we could do with our roster to get more? Because those things, when it's not just the quarterback carrying everything, it feels like that slider goes up a little bit more, but then there's always the cash considerations to use baseball terms, cash considerations, which is you got to pay the good ones a lot of money. And that makes it a lot more interesting. And this, this like balance is so hard to strike because if you end up with Daniel Jones or Marcus Mariota, and you draft that guy and say, he's our future. I mean, you're just going to be mediocre or bad for a while. And I think that, you know,

Vikings fans are having this nightmare all the time of like, well, but can we just get a guard and get more out of cousins? Cause if we draft the guy and he's not good, then we're in a lot of trouble. It is a, it's just a, you, you just, you went through all of the emotions of like the middle-class quarterback, which I think cousins cousins is like upper middle class, maybe PFF grades have him better and better this year,

but I don't think you're setting you, but you know, you're, you're not putting everything on for cousins to carry the team, right? Like you would maybe another quarterback, but one other interesting dynamic, as we talked about Garoppolo though,

and even with the Rams did, I think the, Sean McVay with the Rams and Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers. the uh sean mcveigh with the rams and cow shanahan with the 49ers and they took chances this offseason and the niners went traded up and drafted trey lance and the rams went out and traded for matthew stafford so they were actually both in the boat of i've got a good enough quarterback i've got a guy that i've had success with but i need more because that's because I need to find that edge. And there is an edge.

And again, having a top eight quarterback rather than, say, quarterback nine through 15. But I don't know how. It's just tough to define who those guys are at this point. And even Cousins, again, I think he does some really good things. I think you could also say in a play action heavy system with an elite playmaker like a Justin Jefferson, two elite playmakers really, with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, yeah, he's a good guy to go out there and distribute the ball. But do you want to have a whole bunch of third and longs over and over for Cousins? Probably not over time. You don't want that with anybody. But again, you can trust

probably Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady to make those plays a lot more than you can Cousins. So it's a tough dynamic. The other end of that is what if teams just embrace this Uber pass-heavy attack not because it's going to work every single week, but because the payoff is greater. If the Vikings said, forget about it. It's not a Dalvin-driven offense anymore. It's a Kirk Cousins-driven offense. He's going to chuck it around 40 to 50 times every single week because the payoff of trying to feed Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen when he's healthy, the payoff is incredible. We could put up 30 a game

if we did that. If you can handle a few ugly games in there, the payoff of an uber-path-heavy approach, even when it doesn't make sense, right? It doesn't necessarily make sense to do it with Kirk, but I think the payoff is out there and incredible. I don't know if teams are bold enough to do that, but that's an interesting dynamic for me. And I think getting away from this comfort level of like, I got to run the ball X amount of time, because that's why the Vikings play these one score games

because they play up or down to the game situation and to their level. I wonder if they would just, if they embrace this volatility and say, hey, we might get blown out along the way here, but we could also go on that coveted Flacco run. Remember when the NFL was like, you just need a guy to get hot. What if you went on that coveted Flacco run and you pushed for that high-end variance and just said,

Kirk, try to carry us whether you can or not. That's always just like a fascinating debate for me on how teams should maybe handle game theory. Yeah. And on the show, we had the lean into the Kirk movement, which was like, look, this running thing on second and 10, it's not working. Can you just, you know, lean into Cousins? And if he throws four picks in a game and you lose by 30, who cares? Like your payoff is going

to be greater. The thing is that through along the way, we've sort of had test cases for this 2018 was one of them, but earlier this year, Delvin cook gets hurt. And then Mike Zimmer sort of realizes like, man, we just got to throw the ball because our defense isn't as good anymore. And Daniel Hunter got hurt and everything else. And the test case came out kind of how you'd think where he plays this great game against Green Bay and beats them at home. And then, you know, right after that, it's like, oh, wait, wait, where did, where did Kirk's great play go in San Francisco? And then it's always sort of been that way. And, you know, I, I feel like one thing that I've learned about the Vikings through this year is that

it just, there's a lot of different ways that you can get to the same place. And I looked at the Vikings expected win loss based on their point differential. And guess what? It's the same as their record. It's 500. Right where they are. Right. It's kind of like last year.

Same as where they are. It was right around 500 like maybe there was another win or maybe there wasn't but it's kind of been who they are and you have to break out of that somehow and it just doesn't feel like the answer is there with Zimmer and Cousins no matter like what route you try whether you try the route of like hey let's have him throw more let's have him push the ball down the field to Jefferson more. Hey, let's try to do this, that, or the other thing is you still kind of end up hoping to hang on to the seven seed. And that just feels like if they continue to go this way, they're signing their fate.

But also, I think the Raiders deal with this too with Derek Carr, where it's like, walk away from a guy that good. That's not an easy thing to do when you pull up the PFF grades and you see he's a top-graded quarterback, and you look at the box score stats and see, well, his quarterback rating is really good. Like, maybe we could just – and what if we just – and how about we do this thing? Like, that has, like, been my life for several years now, Steve.

I do a radio hit down in mississippi where there are a lot of saints fans every week and they're like hey what if derrick carr was available and you gave him to sean payton right i mean that's the dynamic of the nfl too which is the states would love to have derrick carr where the raiders are sitting there like man you know we thought he was the guy but i don't know do we try to get better same thing with like if you gave i'm not like a jared goff apologist or anything but he went from a really good situation to one of the worst. So he's not really performing, but there's probably 10 teams that would have taken Jared Goff this off season where the Rams are like, no, we've got to move on from him. A bunch of teams would take a Jimmy Garoppolo where the Niners are trying to say we have to upgrade.

So it is just a fascinating discussion on, you know, what, what do you do and how do you handle it and where does my guy rank? But I think that's, but I think that's the balance, right? Which is Kirk and Stafford. I think they're tier three quarterbacks historically. And for me, tier one is elite carry the team tier two is they can handle adverse situations and still produce that to your Roethlisbergers and Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryans of the world. I think Kirk and Stafford are tier three quarterbacks. They're very much driven by their circumstances.

But then the question is, the debate you have, what are the circumstances that we're going to get the most out of him? Not just in passer rating, but in wins, right? In putting them in position to to win and strategy finding what that balance is is a challenge when you have a tier three quarterback and i think that's just where so many quarterbacks are in today's nfl yeah i think that when it comes to the wins thing there are people who look at it through the lens of the franchise versus the people who just like look at the quarterback.

So if you have a team that has a very good quarterback, that is always 500, like a Derek Carr, for example, I like to put it through his lens because he's so similar to cousins and their franchises are similar. Save for the Vikings got to keep their coach this year and they didn't have to fire him.

But the, but same thing where they're like decent every year. But you know, no one in Minnesota thinks about the Raiders. Like that's kind of a point to make. So whether he's good, yeah, he is definitely good, but their franchise is not even relevant with him as a quarterback. And so your franchise is not winning with him as a quarterback over a big sample. So whether, whether he has good quarterback rating or PFF grade kind of almost doesn't even matter after a certain sample, because you seem to not be able to do what it takes to win with this quarterback. And that's kind of Detroit where, I mean, Stafford's had a great year, but I would defend Detroit's moves all day long to move on from him because there was like, you, you couldn't figure out how to win with him as your quarterback

under those circumstances over a long period of time. So you have to go in a different direction. I wonder if we've also learned this year, just beyond the quarterback discussion, that the analytics are winning when it comes to NFL teams believing in them as far as in-game decisions. I kind of wrote about this the other day about whether an elite Madden player could do as well or better than NFL coaches. And I think, you know, the answer is like by the numbers, of course. But every week now I see it more and more. I think coaches are getting it. And I also think that this becomes, it becomes a Mike Zimmer issue more than it's ever been. Because if you're sort of swinging in the dark, you're going to hit some, you know, Mike Zimmer is not Sam Monson where he's swinging

and missing at every Steve Palazzolo pitch, but, but he's kind of midly, you know, middle of the league. And then you have other guys who are sort of breaking the game and they're winning because of it. And I just, I, that's, I think that we've learned that, that like, this is not going away. Like if you're angry online, that people are going for it on fourth down, you're going to continue to be angry for many years to come because more people are adopting this. And if the Vikings change coaches, I think it's gotta be a question in the interviews from the ownership is like, how do you think about fourth downs? Because they're just, they're, they're a, you know, a code that you can crack and get an advantage over a long period of time.

Yeah. I haven't read your article by the way, but heard it was fantastic. Heard good things. But yeah, I mean, teams have obviously embraced it. So, and it's funny because the analytics community is still trying to like fight back against the, you know, mad online folks. And it's like, it doesn't, it doesn't really matter. I mean, the people in the buildings go through this and they say, look, we're going to increase wind probability if we go for it. I think the easiest way to describe it though, is think about how much effort, I mean, every front office person, every coach, they sit there every day in the off season and they,

they open the laptop every day presumably it's like how can we get better how can we make our team better is it my backup guard is it my my nickel where's my roster who's on the waiver wire who might get released who am i going to trade for who might dress all the hours that go into drafting players hours upon hours upon hours that go into drafting players and then you have something simple which is like go for it all you have to say is go for it and you're going to increase your win probability by three percent right and then you're going to you have another decision later you're going to increase it by four percent and then increase it by two percent

after all that's easy that is an easy win to do that assuming that you trust the numbers right that you trust that the numbers are telling you uh that the wind like that the wind probability increase is actually true uh so to so to me it is like this yes when you're looking for a coach that should be a no-brainer that should be a part of it because it's it's an easy win um and i think you look at a guy like uh john harbaugh who gets a lot of credit because it's an easy win. And I think you look at a guy like John Harbaugh, who gets a lot of credit for making those decisions, but it's because he understands them. It's not because he's like, oh, the spreadsheet said, go, let's go. He can get out there and understand. This is why we went for two. This is why we went for this fourth down.

This is the payoff. This is what happens if we don't get it. So it's just trying to understand. And then it becomes, well, if the competition's doing it and they're increasing their edge and you're not, you're falling behind. It's just the nature of it. So, yeah, I think it's being embraced around the NFL. And it's being embraced even more because, you know, teams are battling for it. Yeah. Well, and what I like about this, as someone who sort of thought that this was the way it would go for, I don't know, like maybe as long as we've ever talked to each other, Steve. I'm sure that I thought this 10 years ago.

But John Harbaugh being the guy who sort of leads the charge here, like he's got a ring, even with not a truly elite quarterback, he won that ring. He has had two different quarterbacks that he's gone, you know, whatever, 13 win seasons with. Like this is one of the league's great coaches and he's doing this. It's not like when Chip Kelly came in and had some success right away and then people went like, oh, well, the legal figured out. And then it did. So it's not like, oh, this crazy, weird mastermind has come down from Mount analytics and now he's running

the league. Like, no, it's John Harbaugh. The guy's been the coach forever he just has adapted along the way um I want to just ask you what you've learned this year like as we've been talking about this the thing that maybe you came into the season saying I wonder how this is going to go and then now you know I think the Chiefs thing is interesting because it did seem like I think what I think we always get into this off-season paralysis by analysis where it's like, oh, we know Mahomes is elite. We know the Chiefs are elite. Therefore, they'll be elite,

and they'll go through 17 games without issues. And I think what I've learned is you always get reminded that teams who win Super Bowls don't just go undefeated. Don't have... They have issues, right? And the last time the Chiefs have, you know, they have issues, right? And the last time the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, they had issues, right? They went through a lull.

They had a Mahomes injury and all that stuff. They went through adversity, right? Bucs are going through adversity right now. The Packers have gone through adversity and kind of maybe come out the other side. So I think you forget that a little bit. As far as like learning, I'm trying to balance the importance

of depth. Again, thinking about off-season analysis, it's like, here's this team's starting lineup. Who has the best starting lineup? These are going to be the best teams. Now we're in December, and there are guys that most fans haven't heard of starting a tackle and starting on the defensive line.

There were some incredible names. Khalid Kareem, making one of the biggest plays of the weekend for the Bengals, right? But there were some incredible names making impact plays around the NFL right now. So I'm trying to figure out if I've learned or not and trying to balance how important is that depth? Because I feel like you forget about it every offseason. Then you get into the year and it's like, oh, death wins, you know,

battle of attrition in the NFL. So I'm being reminded of those things. And I think maybe it's an exciting thing because I love team building season. I love to talk about how teams are constructing their roster. And maybe it's something I'm going to think about more next year when we think about the depth across the roster. Who are these players that you're going to rely upon randomly at some point during the season that are going to have far more impact than you anticipated back in August. Yeah. And I think

that's what we went through with the preseason where Mike Zimmer was basically saying, look, if anyone gets hurt on our defense, we're in a lot of trouble. And that's basically been the case is that, you know, a few players got hurt and they're finding a way to patch over that in some games, but in others, you know, they can't get a clutch stop or whatever else because you can't just you know you can't just sign random corners off the street and then have them shut down amari cooper in key situations and so unless you're the bears apparently yeah shut down versus uh why wasn't he throwing the football to those open receivers? I don't know. That's the one thing I'm trying to figure out.

If I have learned, though, is it easier to hide corners in today's NFL? Because a lot of teams are playing more zone. And it's one of those things I want to investigate a little bit more this offseason. Have NFL coverage decisions, but more of the onus on linebackers and safeties rather than corners. Using the Bears game maybe as a small example that they're able to kind of make do with lesser names there. I'm wondering if that might be the case around the league here. Okay. Yes or no. Before we wrap up, you think the Vikings are making the playoffs? Yes, definitely. They're getting in there.

Wow. Nothing's definite. Every team's. They're going to get in there. Wow. Nothing's definite. Every team's got seven wins in the NFL right now, but yeah, I'll say they make the playoffs. Okay. Well, I've been in that camp too, but they've got to get an upset against the Rams or the Packers to get there and we'll, we'll see.

So Steve Palazzolo, one of my favorite people in the world, PFF NFL podcast. I was listening on the flight out to Chicago, you know, so I'm always listening to you guys show and good luck with your charitable efforts. Again, people should just check out your show, even, even if the nothing else help out with a lot of the great things you're doing. So enjoy your Christmas mooses and have a great Christmas season with you and your, your almost Phillip Rivers family. Yes, thank you. Appreciate it, Matthew. Always, always a pleasure joining you here.