Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Ranking NFL teams by change to win by 2025 with Arif Hasan

Episode Date: May 14, 2024

How excited should Vikings fans be for their two-year window? Matthew Coller and Arif Hasan of the Wide Left newsletter draft the teams who should be most confident in their teams winning by 2025. Where do the Vikings sit on that list? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collard here, joined by Arif Hasan, the Wide Left newsletter. Now it's wideleft.football. You can go and read all of Arif's awesome work. Arif, you are the big star again of draft season with the consensus draft board, which I've used in a lot of my coverage to analyze what the Vikings did. And we won't get into all those debates of whether they paid too much for Dallas Turner or not. But before we dive into our topic, I did want to get your reaction because we have not spoken since then about how this ended up playing out for the Minnesota Vikings. What did you think just as a broad overall, how they did, how they set themselves up for the Minnesota Vikings. What did you think just as a broad overall,

how they did, how they set themselves up for the future by getting J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner? Yeah, I mean, I love the J.J. McCarthy move. I mean, yeah, I think people who follow me know that I wasn't like the biggest J.J. McCarthy fan, but that was like, you know, in the context of like drafting him third or fourth, right? I think creating up one spot, having the 10, that's great.

Dallas Turner is a great player. You know, he's ninth on the consensus board. I think you noted that, which is good. But, you know, obviously there's a whole process here that I don't know. It's like, it's a very top heavy approach to the draft for a team that I don't know has like justified a top heavy approach.

It seems like the process is a lot more interesting for udfas and it is for sixth seventh round picks so if they can and no one can but if they can consistently replace underperforming mid and late rounders with undrafted free agents sure why not like that that seems to be uh something that they're very good at which um you know know, maybe, I don't know. But I think that the players they grabbed are good. I just wish they had grabbed more of them. Well, we all do. Everybody wants more cap space, more draft picks. Usually you have to tank to get all those wonderful things. But I do agree with you when I looked at your consensus board versus some of the UDFAs and the total haul of players that they got.

It actually kind of looks more like they got them in the fourth, fifth and sixth round because they got a lot of guys from UDFA who were much higher, like Gabriel Murphy, who's someone that we'll be tracking as we go along. But I only asked you the big picture question to set up our topic, which is that I think that now the Vikings have their quarterback in place and Dallas Turner to boot that Vikings fans are at the highest point of enthusiasm that I have seen them in. I like some time really since maybe the day that they signed Kirk cousins to at least they thought take them to another level from where they had been in 2017. Didn't happen, so that enthusiasm ran out pretty quickly.

Bounced up and down throughout the Cousins era, the playoff win, the game in Buffalo where they went to 8-1, I think, after winning that game. But this is a huge spike in Vikings fan belief because it is not the short-lived, hey, we got a big win one week and then went out and had disappointment for the next week. This, I think, is because of the Vikings overall plan, which is to build around J.J. McCarthy using that cap space that they have going into next year. So what I wanted to figure out is just how enthusiastic Vikings fans should be by comparing them to the

rest of the league. So what we're going to do is go back and forth and draft teams essentially by how pumped they should be about their team over the next two seasons. Obviously this year, the standards for the Vikings are a little bit different because we view this as a transition year. So we're going to make it over the next two seasons. So how much do you believe in your franchise over the next two years? And we're going to go back and forth with teams until we get to the Vikings and then discuss the reasons that people should be bumped and then also skepticism that they might have. Everybody understand all at once? Yes. Okay, okay great so let's start out i'm gonna take the first overall draft pick because it's my show and we all we all know it we all know who it is it's not hard

the kansas city chiefs should have the most belief in their team they have the greatest quarterback on earth their team has plenty of young talent which what the heck and as long as their receiver somehow stays out of jail then they should be totally fine going forward as a top contending team any disagreement with Kansas City for fans that should believe in their team the most no disagreement whatsoever all right who's number two now this is a more interesting question yeah I think it's super interesting um I think that from an organizational perspective um there are some teams that jump the line, as it were. I mean, there are teams that I think have like a little bit more talent than this team or whatever.

But I just got to pick the Baltimore Ravens. Extraordinarily well-run organization. Really great at getting value in the draft. Really great at getting value in free agency. Really good at negotiating with their own internal free agents. Oh, also, they have an MVP quality quarterback. right? So all of those are like key ingredients. I do think that there are other more talented teams that will have a little bit more talent this year and next year, but sometimes you got to trust organizations and coaches and great coach, great organization, really well run. Yeah, I think Baltimore, just even since Lamar Jackson emerged on the scene, would be at the top of this list that every single year they go into a season

believing, hey, we should win the Super Bowl this year. And they have no reason to think otherwise after the season that Lamar Jackson just had. Now, this is a tough one because there are teams that might have a better case. But I think as far as a two-year window, looking at it as the standard has now been raised to Super Bowl and the hype is enormous for this club, I want to say the Houston Texans here. Because with the amount of money that they were allowed to spend around C.J. Stroud, we know this hack,

but also the way that CJ Stroud played, the fact that they acquired Daniil Hunter and Stefan Diggs, just going all in on the 2015 Vikings draft. I'm not sure that there's another team that people are more jacked up about. That doesn't mean that they have the highest Superbowl odds necessarily, but as far as looking into our crystal ball a little bit going forward, I think they're deserving of the number three spot. Yeah, I think they're definitely like in the conversation. I don't think I would have picked them number three,

but certainly I think they would go top five just because of the, the quarterback talent that they've got available. The fact that they were able to generate more value out of their receivers, you know, before Stefan Diggs came in, then I think a lot of people would have expected. I mean, obviously getting a lot out of tank dell was great but i mean having a breakout year for newell brown having a breakout year for nico collins um that's incredible and now they don't have to worry um that much about you know the the injury that tank dell unfortunately suffered um this past week which is an incredible position to be in right you know and you know they've got a great coach that a lot of people believe in.

So I like it. It is a difficult one to get behind just because I don't know what the track record of the front office is. And you don't have a huge sample size on how good the quarterback is, right? There's like all those kinds of other questions. But certainly that's like quibbling between three and five, right? Like that's, they're a very good team here. I think I'm going to pick a team that's coming off of a disappointing season but whose process i think is good uh disappointing for them i think vikings fans would have loved to have it the philadelphia eagles started off the season 10 and 1 a bunch of

analytics nerds eggheads don't watch the game said they frauds. Then they began to fraud it up and get disappointed in the playoffs. But this is a team that has a young quarterback that is continuing to build along that offensive line that's made them so good. Obviously, having a retiring center, that's going to suck. But for the most part, really great offensive line. They had some issues in the secondary. They attacked that aggressively in the draft. The first two picks were cornerbacks. Both steals against the consensus board for what that's worth. And just generally speaking, find a way to find good players at whatever

pick range or cost that might be. They let go of players that are typically not that valuable. So for example, they let a couple of linebackers leave you know two weeks or two years ago uh for enormous money and like hey you look at that depth you're like hey they could have used some linebackers yeah they like six or seven injuries it's kind of hard but the linebackers they let go of did not have amazing years so i think a smart move and it's just generally like a really well-run organization again i'm picking a team that has a good process, that has a good quarterback, that generally understands kind of what the principles are

that build good teams and they've had the success to show it. Yeah, it's interesting because I wouldn't have gone Philly quite here because of the way that they ended last season and how disappointing it was. And interesting that when Philadelphia was kind of fraudulent, that Vikings fans were pointing at them saying it's not that great. But in 2022, maybe not so much with the Vikings. And in both instances, we can spot regression. But I think I would have gone here if we were popping over to the NFC with the Detroit Lions.

That's so tough for me. Because because I mean, now I think that they view themselves and that's what I'm going to go with my next pick here. They view themselves as having a window and I know they're going to have to pay Jared Goff. That will make it more difficult. They just paid Amin Ross, St. Brown, Penny Sewell. We know where this bus goes. Eventually it goes to too expensive town. And unless you draft unbelievably well toward the backend of the first round, maybe the Vikings helped them out by not taking Terry and Arnold there and gave them one of the best corners in the draft, but I'm still not entirely sold on their defense. They're relying

on Marcus Davenport to be a thing, which I don't know why you would rely on Marcus Davenport to be a thing, but top five offense consistently, there's nothing more consistent. And they kept their offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, which makes you think, well, they could repeat what they were able to do. Jamison Williams might be ready to have a breakout season if he doesn't bet on softball championships or something in a team hotel or whatever the heck he did. So I think that, uh, I think Detroit is very high on themselves and they believe that they could win the super bowl in the next two years. Phenomenal coaching. I think both offensively and defensively, even though the defensive talent does not entirely, they're

phenomenal coaching, obviously head coach, um, seems like a great eye for talent. Um, I think it's a little bit oversold, but then the consensus board loved them this year as opposed to last year, so who's to say? But the issue just for me is like how sustainable it is to build a run first team. Again, you know, there's easily a top 10 team in this sort of category, right?

But it's just like a question of like, you know, hey, maybe I should let go of my prejudices around Jared Goff. He's played well for several seasons now with the lion. So that's fine. I'm in Ross St. Brown fine, but just building a run first team. I mean, we've seen a lot of, you know, really great rookie running backs have really phenomenal seasons like Jameer Gibbs had, and then kind of not turn it around that much. Right. So I think that for me, the lions just don't go

top five, just because I'm concerned about the offensive philosophy, even though I love the offensive coordinator, if that makes sense. But I wouldn't have waited that much longer because great coaching takes you pretty far. All right. Who's next on your list? really tough because it's a bad organization. But I think I want to go with the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow is very good, right? The receiver issue where the T. Higgins problem or whatever, fine, but they've got Jamar Chase, right? Who cares? So they've got that. The offensive line is slowly getting better. I'm just worried about the way that they treat free agents and their ability to offer guarantees and bring people in and stuff like that. Um, I don't love their process, but I like Joe Burrow a lot and they still do have a lot of defensive talent. Right. So, um, I mean, they still have like Hilton and Hendrickson and,

and, you know, the whole shebang and they were able to convince some guys to resign. So, you know, there's, there's something there. Um, and the organizational penalty after having like an elite young quarterback, I think drops them to about, I guess we're at six now, right? So the six. Yeah. You know, with, uh, Joe Burrow, he's another one of those quarterbacks that goes in the Lamar Jackson category of your team should believe every single year. Same with the Josh Allen. I'm interested where both of us have Buffalo on this list because they lost their top wide receiver. But I think that they belong very, very high in part

because I was very impressed with how their coach handled the Jake Browning era. And I thought that of all the coaches that lost their quarterbacks, Zach Taylor stood out the most as tailoring his offense, tailoring his offense. All right. To Jake Browning. And look,

we know Jake Browning is a very smart guy as Mike Zimmer once said, but I don't think he has the most physical talent and to be able to work a screen game, work a play action game and, you know, be competitive with him was impressive. And so I expect them to be able to work a screen game, work a play action game, and be competitive with him was impressive. And so I expect them to be back there. And I think it would be splitting hairs with them and several other teams.

Where I'm struggling here is whether to put Green Bay or San Francisco next. I think what Green Bay fans saw from Jordan Love, the age of their team, the emergence of their receivers, and again, their coaching, very, very good for matt lafleur belongs here after the second half of the season for jordan love they should be snorting all of the jordan love hype up this offseason but also we have just seen san francisco almost be dynastic and how they can get to the nfc championship i mean they're like the eagles under andy reed where it's just every single year they're there. They drafted a receiver overdrafted probably by your board, but guy I

really like in Ricky Pearsall. I'm curious to see how the Brandon Iuke situation pays plays out. Is he going to be there? Are they going to trade him to the Steelers? Like what that matters to me for their enthusiasm. They will eventually get expensive, but right now they're not at all with Brock Pur purdy what it really comes down to is whether you think brock purdy was kind of a case keenum one year thing or if you think he can do it year after year which makes me want to put green bay here even though the samples are similarly small yeah very similar but jordan love is so much larger and he throws the ball so much harder. And I also think that they're not expensive like Green Bay, but Love will be eventually, but they're not expensive as a roster. I'm not sure here.

I think I just want to go play it safe and go San Francisco because they always just prove that they're going to be there. It's just, is Christian McCaffrey going to stay at that level? Like that's a question. I think more regression possibilities than Green Bay yeah yeah yeah I guess if you're going to like map out the ways that they could regress I think that there's more available there to them I am just a little bit more skeptical of Jordan Love um I think that um though I am also a Brock Purdy skeptic for sure

um I think that there's more that Brock Purdy has done. I think that love, like there are more good games of Brock Purdy that you can point to. Right. And what's really interesting is that his most high profile games are not those. It's very annoying. But with love,

it really is the back half of the season. And of course the playoffs that you actually see good gains from him. And while it is good to progress as a quarterback, obviously, I found historically that if you see, especially a quarterback, but basically any position, if you see someone who has a sample where for half the season they're bad and half the season they're good, they're probably not the back half a season guy they might be somewhere in between or they might actually be bad but the the small samples can trick you a lot especially when they occur at the back half um this was like the geno smith trap that the jets kept on falling into of course geno smith eventually turned into a quite a good quarterback but every year he'd start off with like hey man he just finished off the season really strong. It's like, it doesn't matter. So that's like the concern of Jordan Love.

So I would take the 49ers above the Packers here. And I also like, obviously both have really good coaching. I do put Shanahan above the coach of the Packers, whose name I should know. Yeah. The coach of the Packers. I'm not talking about that.

That's absurd. LaFleur. LaFleur. There's multiple Lafleurs. There are many Lafleurs. Yeah. This would be Matt Lafleur. Yeah. So I think that like the organization that the 49ers have, both in the front office and in coaching has produced a lot more just in terms of like, you know, sending people out to the rest of the NFL and also just been a lot more consistent. So I do like that a little bit more. And I,

I like Purdy just a little bit more. So I take the 49ers above them. I still, it feels weird not picking the bills yet, but I think I am going to pick the 49ers here just for that reason. Okay. I already picked the 49ers. So, oh wait, no. So, oh, okay. I thought you picked the Packers. Oh, okay. No. Yeah. Sorry. That was my bad. I was, uh, I was haggling between both. Okay. So I picked 49ers. Yeah. Gosh. Uh, until I see more from their new defensive coordinator, I'm not picking the Packers yet. Um, kind of want to cheat a little bit and still skip the bills though. I think the bill should be a little bit down on themselves. I mean, truly, they have the great quarterback, but even great quarterback teams sometimes have a dip,

and we have never seen Josh Allen without Stephon Diggs, or, I mean, not since he was first developing as a quarterback, so I'm kind of curious about that. And they drafted one receiver? Like, they haven't really solved that problem. Let's go Dallas Cowboys, a perpetual disappointment team. Yeah. Analytically sound, generally just full of talent.

Obviously every year people hype up the Dallas Cowboys offensively and defensively, and they disappoint. But I can only go by kind of like what I've watched and what I know that they are on paper. And they've got a pretty good, not as great as it used to be, but a pretty good offensive line right they've got a very good quarterback who was living up to expectations for most of the year last year um they're attacking the receiver issue right they're they're helping cd lamb out uh and

that defense you know maybe they don't have stefan gilmore anymore but that defense is insane so i don't know it's like it's tough for me to look away from the Cowboys, which is so funny because of how poorly run they were for so long. And then without any change in technically the organizational structure, they started becoming a very well-run team in part because Wilma Clay had a lot more say in part because Stephen Jones was able to overrule Jerry Jones, but like the, the flow chart for the organization didn't change at all, but how that organization played out has produced much more stable outcomes. Plus, I don't think they leaked their draft board this year,

which is the running back they did. But they wanted to draft Jonathan Brooks, and they told everybody, and then they couldn't. But other than that, that's a lot better. It is a yearly tradition. I'm sad that I didn't get to see that in the background of one of their team videos or something so the reason i would have had dallas lower is just because there's that prescott uncertainty in the future i haven't felt like they've done a lot this off season to add but of course they're a really good team last year

and i think that they've been punched in the mouth in the playoffs enough to the point where their fans should be nervous that that's just all they can really be is a team that just feels too much pressure in the playoffs and then forgets how to play football but like Zimmer's addition there we know Zimmer we know what he does with top-notch talent and it wouldn't surprise me if they had the best defense in the entire league so maybe a team that we're kind of making too much over smaller things like quarterback contract drama. And, you know, did they add enough receivers or whatever in the offseason? Maybe that's like not seeing the forest through the trees that this has been one of the best teams in the regular season in the NFL for years.

Well, I will pick Green Bay here and just sort of think that they're buying into fully Jordan Love and that they've got an opportunity here to if a couple of these wide receivers continue the way that they're going they drafted an offensive lineman which was not sexy but could really help something that they need there and like you couldn't be much worse than what they were doing on defense if there is a Ed Donatell to Brian Flores-ish shift there, that could be one of the best teams in the NFL. I was buying more of Jordan Love, I think for two reasons, because one, his relationship with Green Bay Packers coach X is pretty darn impressive. LaFleur is his name. And I really thought that after half the season what was different was

LeFleur understanding what Jordan Love sees and what he doesn't see and what works for him and what doesn't work for him that seemed to take a shift toward the end of the season maybe that is too much buying in Sam Darnold had a similar end of a year where everyone went you know he led the league in something in the last four weeks or whatever which can be dubious I agree but they're receiving core where they have not just one or two good players but you know numerous options I think that they have a legitimate chance over the next two years to take advantage before Jordan Love his cap hits become truly exorbitant and difficult to work around after this. Now we are starting, I think, to sniff the territory of where the Minnesota Vikings could potentially be somewhere in this

ballpark. I think it's a good range for them. Still not picking them, but this is a good range for them. I'll stop the slide. I'll pick the bills um a quarterback right like at some point you just have to acknowledge that having a top five quarterback is worth it i mean we still haven't picked the chargers yet so it's you know but at some point do they have a top-notch quarterback i do think they have a top-notch quarterback i think justin herbert's quite good and justin kirk is pretty decent yeah rough rough um but hey i'm the guy sitting at the desk that says prove me wrong prove me wrong we'll get there when we get there josh allen is a very good quarterback um obviously not having stefan diggs obviously i think just

mismanaging a lot of that that roster and not i think having the goods uh at offensive coordinator defensive coordinator um is is a big problem not having a ton of receiver talent i'm not a huge believer in keon coleman despite how charismatic this dude is i love him but i don't think he's very good at receiver i hope he proves me wrong um but then it's just like a bunch of like i could see it guys but no yeah guys you know it's like curtis samuel khalil shakir is claypool like okay uh um i could see it but like they're gonna have to demonstrate that i mean the offensive line is okay it's like deon dawkins and a bunch of dudes um the defensive line like i expect risotto to have a good season, but I don't know. It's a lot of like, yeah, man, your window did pass, huh?

It did. I think it did. The window's gone. So that's where I'm at. The quarterback is kind of upholding this ranking right here. Folks, we all have smartphones and we know that they are pretty amazing, but they can also be amazingly distracting, especially when we're around other people. So US Cellular wants us to reset our relationship

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and i don't really understand that and then it wasn't as if joe brady had proved much it reminds me a little bit and this is going way way back but uh john elway before they brought in kubiak and shanahan where it was just hey elway good yeah do something insane yeah you got we'll give you some guys that run for like 600 yards a year and a handful of decent receivers mark jackson here's the xfl's top receiver just go nuts and then he would get the super bowl and get blasted by the 49ers they'd be like his elway clutch like come on so anyway that's a old guy record holder clutch right but you know uh kind of reminds me a little bit of the same thing so they are deserving of that respect here's where i'm struggling i want to put chicago here because

they are in position over the next two years if caleb williams clicks to be an incredible team but of course that requires caleb williams to be incredible if it's going to happen. The team that I feel has been totally left out so far that may be more deserving is the Miami Dolphins. It's just like they have a really great coach. They have great weapons. They drafted even more speed. They had a decent enough defense. It really comes down to, again, with the quarterback, is he good enough to take them anywhere else than where they went right and so if you're talking about the next two years chicago this year is probably not going to

go too far but 2025 do we think that tua is kind of a ceiling type of guy no matter what you put around him that he's gonna have a playoff game where he has to go somewhere cold and just lose and does that mean chicago deserves to be better i might just go chicago here i i'm maybe that's being a little bit of a hater because i do really like to uh more than maybe the consensus so to speak but i just think what chicago has done with their tank and the amount of talent they've put on this roster over the last two years puts them in position by the end of 2025 to potentially be a behemoth so i'm gonna go chicago here yeah i don't uh i don't super love how chicago has handled a ton of the draft process i'm not going to give them too much credit for caleb williams because dunk but um i don't know i i have suspicions about the front

office uh from a draft perspective everything else they seem to be handling insanely well. Right. They're bringing in a ton of talent. Yeah, they overpaid for some linebackers, but whatever. They retained their high level cornerback. That's really great to see. They're building out the trenches on both sides. They actually did a very good job with that offensive line after the disaster it was two, three years ago. So, yeah, I mean, there's there's like stuff to work with there um the head coach and just the coaching situation in general i'm not buying so that's that's like i think a problem for me and that's why i would prefer miami over chicago so i'm glad that they slipped to me um i i love that coaching staff uh obviously the head coach is great but i think that

you know you you talk about a quarterback in a ceiling and that's fair this is also a team that like put up 70 against the broncos but they put up 70 right um they did tail off at the second half of the season maybe that has something to do with the cold that's pretty important um but i i think that for the most part we know that tua is a top half quarterback who's got the capability to produce like a top seven-ish quarterback you know um great receiving core i shouldn't even say functional offensive line work in progress there um really great defensive i think a very underrated defensive line um and they know when to cut weight on defense mean, they've gotten rid of some really high profile guys that they should have and they were right to.

Xavier Howard is still floating out around out there. So I like that coaching staff a lot. I like the way that that offense has the ability to create. I do like some of the pieces they have on defense and the coaching staff for me swings it, right? Like I believe Caleb Williams is going to be a fantastic quarterback, but that is more a projection. I think Tua, despite the health concerns,

despite the limitations has demonstrated that the production is available right now. So I'm taking the dolphins over the next two years more than the Chicago bears. Hold on. Adam Schefter just tweeted something. Oh, there it is.

Aaron Goff just signed a four-year $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed. Now, I am, by the way, the biggest Jared Goff believer, and you may be the skeptic. But the way that Goff executes an offense and does not make mistakes, not a lot of sacks, not a lot of sacks, not a lot of interceptions, arm talent, just understanding where to go with the football, those things, I think makes him a top-notch quarterback that is deserving of this.

This is going to be hellacious, though, to work around for them several years out. This two-year window, I'm sure they can still manage around this because they've drafted pretty well. But that really puts a mark of where their window is. It's the next two years. So I think we're right to kind of put them still at the top, but also say this has an expiration date with Jared Goff and also Ben Johnson probably gets a job if they, uh, you know, perform as well next year. So very interesting that we were just talking about that jared goff extension uh do you want a quick thought on that before so you're taking miami here um before i make my next i think you kind of nailed it all with the golf stuff obviously i believe in him a lot less

um i think like he is also a limited quarterback i think that when you when you take the possibility of the run out of the game by situation third and long and stuff like that. There are some issues that crop up. But I mean, he's a lot better than I had imagined he would be. He has proven me wrong. I think time and again, both in terms of like, just,

you know, you watch him play and you see, you know, the, the quickness of process that wasn't there at UCLA. And also statistically, I mean, it's not like he is a yak merchant.

Like you'd expect somebody who has a great offensive or great offensive coordinator and a really great after catch receiver to be like he slings it right. And some of his best deep throws are like drops by Jamison Williams, like that's not his fault, right? So it's there. I just am still a skeptic. I'm just, I'm not nearly the skeptic of him as I am of, you know, love and purdy, right? Like I, there's a lot more there for me to prove. This is me just kind of recovering from my Jared Goff hate and talking myself through it more than it is anything else. But I don't know, maybe he just lacks the, you know, it, you know, because I can just say that and then no one has to, you know, no one has any evidence to prove me wrong. So I could just say it. You're one catch away by Josh Reynolds from being really wrong. He catches that ball on fourth down, and you would have had to be really wrong.

For me, I'll admit to this bias that because I get to see teams play the Vikings, and I know how strong the Vikings are at any given time. I will do a lot of my judging of opposing players by how they played against the Vikings. So if you asked me how good is a Keem Hicks, I might tell you the best player of all time, because he just murdered. Like if anyone says Kenny Clark,

I like hide under the desk. I mean, they're both great players. Big Golden Tate fan here. Exactly. If someone had brought him up and, you know, when we went out there in 2018 and saw him play against Zimmer's defense, put up a perfect quarterback rating in that game.

I was just like, man, this guy, he is, he's not just a system quarterback or whatever. Like the arm talent is so real. The velocity puts on the football. I mean, anyway, we don't need to debate Jared Goff all day long, but I think he's got four top five offenses now in his career.

To me, that's the goal, right? As if you can have, if he rolls out and throws it, he's no better than you at throwing the football once he has to move. So, and you have tiny hands.

You can't even put your hand on the football. It's that bad. He just throws it right in the ground. I need to pick one up in training camp. The most humiliating experience of my life. It's the NFL balls are insane. Yeah. That's why when they were talking about Kenny Pickett's hand size and I measured mine, I was like, wait a minute.

We have the same hands. How does he even hold on to it? Like the very tail end of the ball. He just like yeah just like catapulted right and that's kind of what ended up happening so here we are I think we've got 12 teams and now it's time I think to talk about the Vikings as part of this and as as we look at teams that could be in this same ballpark I think Washington drafting number two overall with Jaden Daniels, but they need to prove they're a football team first to me before just even run like a franchise. I would have probably had a conversation about Atlanta and their next two years and the hype. And I think that they just

popped that balloon in the NFL draft over what they can do over the next two years. But I mean, I think that their fans would, if they had drafted Dallas Turner, like their fans would have been talking about that. They should be right here. Right. The jets are another team because if Aaron Rogers is doctors rubbed mud on it or whatever, and he suddenly goes back to being really, really good, that team can be phenomenal.

I just don't buy that. I don't know if you do with the Jets. Oh, man, I'm not a huge fan of the coaching staff. I mean, Robert Sal is charismatic, right? But I don't think the coaching staff generally makes good decisions. The way that they talked around Zach Wilson was weird to me. The decisions that they like talked around uh zach wilson was weird to me the decisions that they've made on personnel i think are bizarre obviously they built an astounding defense which i think you know we talked about a lot in 2022 it was still very good in 2023 just didn't matter like for who for what um and they're beginning to lose some of those pieces they just lost price huff right um but it is still mostly a young defense

they paid Quinn and Williams but they've got Sauce Gardner for a while um DJ Reed is actually you know producing value over over the contract that he signed which is really great um there's like there's like stuff there but I just the coaching staff is like a concern to me um I kind of think of Aaron Rodgers as kind of locker room cancer and he just kind of works around it by being so insanely talented. Once you no longer meet that bar for insane talent, like what happens then? I don't know. So I'm kind of curious about that. So to me, the Falcons are, you know, potentially here. The Jets are potentially here. This is where I begin to think about the Chargers.

Again, I do believe in that quarterback uh and maybe the colts because i think anthony richardson in his four games was like hey that's pretty good i would probably take all of them above the jets in a two-year window but i think the jets are in this conversation and i think we're beginning to like once we start talking about the chargers and the colts we're beginning beginning to think, what about the Vikings? Well, that's right. And I think if we go kind of team by team, that the Indianapolis Colts, and also we left Jacksonville out of this. I have a tougher time buying Jacksonville. It's difficult.

I'm also a Chargers believer, too. But I just like, I don't know. Me, too. But can we get a receiver for him? Can I help you get a receiver for him? Like just can I, can I help you get a receiver for him? Because last year the guy threw like four touchdowns where his receivers went out of the back of the end zone. And I just thought that was so funny and also cost them, but they were still a good football team last year. That division has just become kind of a monster all

of a sudden. And I'm really buying Anthony Richardson. If Richardson is healthy and doesn't throw his body around the way he stepped in, I wasn't always accurate, but the way he stepped in and commanded an offense was, Whoa, okay. That guy's really young and inexperienced that did that. But should there be more right. And right away, he, it was just like, he was a force right away. And so the question would be, do you buy Indianapolis in a two-year window more than you buy the Minnesota Vikings?

And I think that's a neck and neck race where they're a leg up because they drafted him last year. And so they're a little farther ahead and he can develop for another year this season before they could be a legitimate contender. The Chargers are just harder for me to put there i think that they're pretty short on talent as a team i do not buy their psychotic head coach uh as coming back he's won everywhere he's gone what do you want him to do i understand that and they did a great job recruiting at michigan and all their players got drafted but that is not something that I'm believing in just yet. Although if it works out, I can't wait to hear all the should have hired Harbaugh people. But the question really comes down to, would you put ahead of the Vikings, a team that has an established quarterback in Justin Herbert that we know is good. Shades of Good is

sort of the Jared Goff discussion, and it's my alternative 90s rock band. But with Shades of Good, that's actually great. That's actually a great name. I'm going to use that. And Indianapolis, are you buying the small sample of what you saw with Richardson plus a pretty good organization, I i think that can build a good roster we've also left the rams seattle out of this uh arizona's tank i'm not quite ready to put those teams there so how do we match them up with i guess this is my pick so this is why we're haggling over this chargers colts i i think I might actually go with the Indianapolis Colts here before we get to the Vikings because, uh, Anthony Richardson is a year of head of JJ McCarthy. So if we're

talking about really winning by 2025, that would likely be the first year we're putting expectations on McCarthy. Yeah. And I think that you've got, um um like good receiving talent to work with uh they just drafted ad mitchell but they also have michael pitman um oh and they they've like josh downs too he's like a little speedy guy right so that's kind of useful i also buy their coach yeah i i think shane sikens great um why do i remember all of these guys except matt lafleur okay whatever it's it's todd lafleur i don't know why you keep saying that it's mike lafleur um but yeah uh i i i like the coachings i think of gus bradley on defense which is fine it's not like amazing but it's fine um but yeah i i think that

and they just brought in um the jbc j Cooter, on offense, right, as their offensive coordinator. There's a lot going on. They just drafted Latu on defense, which I think is fine. Obviously, the medical concern is there. But there's a lot to work with there. They've got a lot of young talent. The offensive line, I think, long-term, you've got to watch out for. But other than that, I think that there's like a lot a lot to work with um there

so i like the colts i'm still gonna take so it's about turn to draft i'm taking the chargers i'm gonna take them above the vikings we presume that j.j mccarthy is good we know that justin herbert is good um and i i think he's excellent like i think that um having his receivers injured every year uh has produced kind of a trevor lawrence dynamic where it's like all right yeah i mean quentin johnston sucks and your top receiver right now is joshua palmer great um many of us have not heard of joshua palmer and uh that's nobody's fault you're not supposed to have right so uh it is it is like tough there i think that the way that staley managed the the the games for them was so discordant with with what he

had intended to do that there was like no consistent offensive or defensive philosophy there was no consistent philosophy what to do on fourth down and it created a lot of problems um i think that harbaugh is going to fix all of that i think harbaugh is a good coach i wouldn't ever want to know him i don't want to be his friend but he wins right he won at stanford he won at san francisco he won at michigan took a little bit of time in fairness right um you want it like san diego right like this this guy wins um and he like produces quarterbacks right like in san diego he produced josh johnson i believe a show favorite right so yes oh yes so like i don't know like this guy like knows ball

and he's weird about it but players connect to him uh and he kind of just understands like what makes uh you know a particular football team work uh so i'm gonna i'm gonna trust that coaching staff i'm gonna believe in Justin Herbert. That offensive line is getting a little bit better. I'm glad that they drafted another offensive lineman. And the defense has pieces, and I'm glad that they continue to add Ed Rusher-Depp. They just signed Bud Dupree to round up.

And he's our fourth guy. They've got Tuli Tupulotu, who was a really good rookie last year, in addition to Cleo Mack and Joey Bosa. So there's a lot to work with. They do need to add a little bit more to the cornerback group, safety, they want to pair somebody with Derwin James. But I think in a two-year window, I think that there's something there, and I'm going to take the quarterback that I know, in my opinion, is good

versus the quarterback that I presume to be good that may not even play very many games this year. So, you know, J.J. McCarthy is on track to be a good player, but we haven't seen him do anything yet. So I'm thinking Justin Herbert. We saw a rookie minicamp practice. Oh, you're right. I don't know what you're saying.

We haven't seen it yet. Okay, so we have the Chargers are a tougher one for me because I think that the great equalizer, even if you are a great coach, is that roster. And they are far away with that roster from where they need to be to be a true championship contender. And what I think about Justin Herbert is a lot of the same things that I thought about Kirk Cousins,

except for he's much taller and does throw the ball harder. Much better arm. And he's a better athlete. There's no question that the physical skills are better but yet the tendencies are kind of the same of checks down a lot doesn't take a whole lot of risks kind of has to see it before he's willing to throw it and you could always talk about the supporting cast and you're right to talk about the supporting cast but we're not talking about a guy who got you know 11 12 11, 12 wins. And then in the playoffs, the supporting cast let him down. We're talking about a guy who has the one playoff appearance

in which he couldn't finish the job and allowed a massive comeback by the Jacksonville Jaguars. And that's the team that I'm struggling with here is like, are we overreacting to last year's disappointment by the Jaguars not reaching the playoffs and not realizing they still have a franchise quarterback? Again, your point is, we don't know on McCarthy. We do know on Trevor Lawrence that he's at very least a very good quarterback and maybe still has the ability to be great. I should do the same thing with Lawrence that I do for Herbert. Like I'm going to have to see it first before I start calling you great. I should do the same thing with Lawrence that I do for Herbert. Like I'm going to have to see it first before I start calling you great. And there hasn't really been a great season. I think with the Vikings in putting them in this spot, it would kind of come down a little bit to

organizationally, like organizationally, I think the Vikings have a good plan. They have a lot of superstar talent on offense where the Jaguars still do not. And I'm not really buying the Jaguars as an organization. And the same thing for the Falcons. They have a lot of talent and they have a proven quarterback, but that proven quarterback costs $10 gazillion and we know what his ceiling is and we don't know what his Achilles is going to be. Is there any other teams here that you would say should be in that two-year discussion along with the Vikings that is not Jacksonville? Because I'm thinking about taking the Vikings

right here, Jacksonville or Atlanta. Yeah, I'm looking through this list of Super Bowl odds right now, and the teams that are higher than the Vikings in the 2020 Super Bowl odds list, I'm not that interested in for a two-year window. They include the Jets, the Rams, the Browns. These are not candidates to me. The Seahawks, maybe. I don't know. But after that, it's like the Saints, Raiders, Cardinals.

And yeah, I'm taking the Vikings in a two-year window over any of those teams. That's easy. The Steelers, but they don't have a quarterback. They have everything but a quarterback and that is really important to me so uh and everything is like a stretch right I love the organization I love the coaching I love the drafting whatever but they don't have a quarterback and I'm a little skeptical of the receiving situation and the offensive lines

whatever so it's like whatever so I'll take the Vikings out of those so to me it's like Jacksonville Atlanta these other teams like maybe the Seahawks take the Vikings out of those. So to me, it's like Jacksonville, Atlanta, these other teams, like maybe the Seahawks are the only other name that I throw in there for a two-year window. I wouldn't put, you know, the next on the list for me, and I wouldn't even put them in the same tier, would be the Rams and then the Jets, I think is kind of where I'm at. Because the Rams with Cooper Cup, Puka Nakua could be,

and their defense improved last year from the previous season. They could be a contender for this year. And we know this, you get in the NFC playoffs and kind of anything can happen there. Whoever's playing Kansas city in the Superbowl, like we'll see, but we shouldn't be shocked if Stafford goes on a heater in the playoffs, because that's kind of what he did before. And they have the best coach and they've got a lot they deserve. They probably are deserving here in a two-year window. I might say that the Rams, I don't know. I'm less high on the chargers than you.

There's several teams I would put ahead of them, but I think that this is a good place for the Vikings because of the two-year element of this, where if the Rams again, go nine and eight or 10 and seven and lose in the first round of the playoffs or whatever, then I think it's kind of over for them with Stafford. This might be his last year in the NFL. I just can't, even despite their division, I cannot see the Atlanta Falcons going past the first round of the playoffs. I don't think their team is strong enough overall. And when people start naming their players, a lot of them haven't proven anything like, Hey,

B. John Robinson. Like, okay, well, he was fine last year. He was a great week. One highlight,

a phenomenal week. Right. Right. And it was, he might be amazing or he might just be okay. Kyle Pitts has proven absolutely nothing. You know, they got to throw it his way.

I think they might have good coaching, but we're stretching on all these points. It's a, it's a lot of we're suggesting talent more than we're identifying it you know exactly and with the vikings where you give them a lot of credit is their coaching staff because on the defensive side giving brian flores dallas turner to go along with grunard van ginkle these are guys who are going to be there for at least two years probably more than that washington is my hold up here because they drafted the number two overall quarterback. It's tough.

I can't, the offensive, like if it's so like organizationally, obviously that's like a huge problem for me, but they also just have holes everywhere. They've got a great receiving group. Right. But that offensive line is a disaster.

The defensive line, I think they're just going to begin losing guys again right they they they did resign to ron payne and jonathan allen but we're talking about two-year windows i don't know if they can hold on to those guys um you know they they lost cameron curl of safety they lost their linebackers i mean they added some linebackers and free agents i think like bobby wagner but it's like what are we doing with that for um yeah uh the cornerbacks it's like i don't know i i can't really get behind so if they had talent i could overlook the coaching staff problem and the organization problem um but uh i i can't even i can't even get there so it's tough for me to put washington

into this conversation but yeah having the you know second overall pick a quarterback i mean that that's a huge boon uh both from having a talent at quarterback probably and also having cost savings that you can take advantage of what's interesting is that if the all the teams that you identified before washington if we were talking three-year window the vikings would clear so many of them so many of them because it's like we got kirk cousins and aaron rogers and matthew stafford like yeah three-year window bye right so so that's interesting, like three-year window by right. So, so that's interesting, but the two-year window makes it tough, right. In terms of like where you'd put the Vikings in relation to them. Um, this is like where, like, I'm like, maybe, I don't know.

Right. How good can JJ McCarthy get how quickly? And that is a difficult thing to answer after one rookie, but he can't practice in which, uh, you know, it was some good, some bad. I think that putting the Vikings here is at very least fair. So for timing purposes, we're putting the Vikings here and that would put them 15th, which is where they show up on every list historically of all time. Uh, and after this year, we might feel very different about that. If we see some of JJ McCarthy and have a sense for where he's going as of right now, we don't have a sense for even when he's going to play, if he's going to play this year, which makes the discussion, I think kind of interesting.

Uh, so let's talk about before we wrap their 15th in say deserved fan enthusiasm for their next two year window. What would be the, if you were Mr. Wet blanket at the party, not that you would get invited to a party, but if there were people talking that you were near and they were saying, Oh man, this Vikings team in the next two years, we're going to the Superbowl baby. And you wanted to step in and say

ah well actually fellas what would you make as your counter argument to these enthusiastic imaginary bros um i'd say that having fourth choice at quarterback sucks or i guess fifth choice i i keep on forgetting about michael panics um yeah having fifth choice. I keep on forgetting about Michael Panics. But yeah, having fifth choice at quarterback sucks. I know he's a first round pick, but I mean, you have no idea if he's any good and 15 other teams are not 15, but a bunch of other teams passed on him, passed on the opportunity to draft him. I think that the defense is held together by duct tape and string. And you just kind of hope that the guy that mastered like that that crafted a 12 game window of good defense i want to say um can do it again with like all of these broken and spare parts uh the vikings let more talent walk than they brought in it's very difficult to

argue that um they're a better team than they were before and they weren't like a team last year i i think people underestimate how good of a quarterback kirk cousins is which is like a very tough sentence for me personally to say um but it's like hard for a rookie to get up to that level like the reason kirk cousins was a disappointment is because you paid him like he was a really high level guy because he demonstrated that he could almost get there almost getting to really high level is pretty rare. The Panthers tried it with the first overall picket quarterback and they couldn't do it, right? Most quarterbacks fail. That's the game. So I think that, you know, if I were to be a wet blanket, which I can't

imagine ever being in that role, you'd say most quarterbacks fail. This is the fifth quarterback selected. The defense is not as good as you think it is because when it was solved, it was decimated. It was destroyed. Talent matters. And there's only so much you can do. And, you know, the Vikings are going to end up in cap pressure anyway, even though they've got that rookie quarterback, because they're going to have to pay people like Justin Jefferson, right? It's going to be difficult for them to continue adding talent. And it seems like they're gutting their offensive line. The thing that turned the team around the last two years, like losing Ezra Cleveland, not signing a left guard who knows what's going on with Ed

Ingram. That's kind of tough. Okay. So I think that all of those things, if I may be the imaginary bro, uh, I think that all of those things definitely apply to this year. If you were making the argument of, hey, this team can't compete for a Super Bowl in 2024, those would be the things. You get to be left guard guy and be like, who is Blake Brandel anyway? And that's fair. And you could use the term forklifted for the center that is used often when it comes to playing any good defensive tackle. And the depth of the defense is certainly not there yet.

And they draft Kyrie Jackson. We'll see if there's anything there for a fourth round pick. Hard to say, right? Or is there a next step for Makai Blackman? Or is he kind of a 500 snap role player type of guy? Like all these things are pretty big questions for this present team. But in the two-year window, and even when you talk about the spending, Justin Jefferson and the enormous cap hits,

probably the way that these have been structured in the past, will not kick in for a little bit until he's, you know, then he's got the 35 million cap hit or whatever. But it usually takes a couple years before they get there and restructures and all that. That means a lot of cap space to fill in the gaps. So if you took a defense that is already very good and has a lot of these young pieces, Ivan Pace Jr., Jonathan Grenard is just entering his prime and so forth that Dallas Turner works out and then add three guys, add AJ Terrell, who's going to be,

excuse me, a free agent next year or something like that, right? BJ Hill. I was doing the look at the free agents for 2025 already. If you add some good talent there with the cap space that you have in the short window, one thing we know is that the Wilfs ownership will push all that into the future if they have to. And if McCarthy, if he fails, it's not going to be for a lack of trying from the receivers to the offensive tackles, to the coach, to the quarterback coach, to everybody pointing all their lasers into the success of this, uh, uh, this young man. So, uh, I think that they deserve to be in this very much in this discussion, but not for this year, but for next year and projecting what this roster will look like and his development that he's going to have

to learn a lot of different things before he can get to that point. But the final point that I would like to make about McCarthy is yes, he was QB five in a draft where they all went in the top 10. So really he was drafted in the same spot as Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, just saying. But I think that the thing that I, when we go through this difference making quarterbacks, the ones that I believe in more usually, and this doesn't exactly apply to Jared Goff, but it's like the playmakers. And I think that there's a playmaking element of JJ McCarthy that might even out some of the odds there with him if added to great wide receivers. So that would be my case for them deserving this two-year window of excitement. And you know, like you said, if you stretch it out to three, I think they're one

of the teams that you'd look at even higher on this list for a three-year window, but that's really hard to do. So tell me this then, Arif, where do you stand on that? Like which one of these would you say, which one of those sides of those arguments would you agree with more? I think, okay, so I am still a little skeptical of the cap space. I know that they're projected to get $100 million, and that'll only go down a little bit with the Jefferson stuff, just because teams that build defenses through the cap space i know that they're projected to get 100 million and that'll only go down a little bit with the jefferson stuff just because teams that build defenses through the cap don't seem to

do a very good job just generally speaking um you know that the bears might be the closest example that we have but i mean jacksonville tries it every year and that defense is still a disappointment um and players that are generally well regarded too it's it's tough right um but i i do think that like yeah i mean yeah he's the fifth quarterback but he's like he was like the 10th player selected like like he's generally regarded as having first round talent and like yeah sure most quarterbacks fail i think it's like for quarterbacks in the first round it's like a 60 bust rate um but like what do you what are you, what are you going to do about that? Like it could be him or it could be Caleb Williams. I don't know. So yeah, I, I think that believing in McCarthy's

talent, I think is the strongest argument here. I think that you'll probably improve the defense with the, with the cap space that you have, but probably not as much as you think. I shouldn't even say probably you'll definitely improve the defense with that cap space, just probably not as much as you think. And, yeah, I mean, probably this year they won't compete, but that's, like, not a huge concern. So whatever. Like, I don't believe in the wet blanket version of the argument

just because I had to twist. It was very obvious I had to twist a couple of things around in order to do that. But, yeah, I think it primarily just falls on the quarterback and his potential and yeah i mean he does have some playmaking moxie to him right like that's nice um if he can kind of control you know what that looks like and and you know measure like thread in a little bit of ball placement and accuracy i mean there's like a ton there and that's the whole reason that he's sitting

this year right is to develop the footwork to make that, you know, a more consistent feature of his game. Um, yeah, I mean, I think the arrow was pointing up for the Vikings. So I, I, I believe in the JJ McCarthy version of the argument, probably the most. Yeah, I agree with you. I would lean more toward that. And I think that this is what they've planned for, for some time. So it probably didn't end at, we just draft one and then see what happens. And the other thing I believe in strongly is Justin Jefferson's impact on quarterbacks. That it just can't really be understated. What a guy like him and everybody who follows the Vikings knows this,

who would announce it soon, right? Like the Justin Jefferson, it sounded like they wanted to announce it during the draft, but they're like, let's not. I think I got mini camp circled. Don't like, don't waste this man's time with otas let's just get him here for minicamp uh who would you have picked last like dead ass last dead last oh my god

obviously we could do a four-hour podcast that gets to number 32 but like yeah yeah um i i think I think I have to go with the Panthers. Oh, yeah. David Tepper is the new Dan Snyder, it seems like. And if you can't get out from under how bad your owner is, it's tough to do anything. They consistently make bad moves in the draft. They consistently make bad free agent signings that are easy to identify as bad at the time. I don't know. It's just like a bad team.

So the Panthers might be near the bottom of this list just because of the organizational problems there. There are teams that have less talent than them, for sure. But, man. I think I would go with the New York Giants. I just don't see the path. Yeah, I think they'll probably draft i mean for a two-year window yeah that makes sense i think they'll probably draft a quarterback next year so they'll they'll get out from under that i think the front office is a little better than it was

but uh low bar so could be coach firings and so forth yeah they win three games or whatever this year i think they're in pretty bad shape uh A reef wide left dot football. Great place to go and read everything that you write. So if you like this, then go there. And if you don't, it's still worth checking out because you got a lot of interesting stuff. So I appreciate your time as always. And we'll hit up a links game soon,

man. Yeah, absolutely. Oh my gosh. Season's about to start like Tuesday or something like that. Oh my gosh. Exactly. So let's go.

All right. Thanks reef. Thanks everybody for listening. Football.