Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Ranking Vikings 2025 RB options and 'big game' pick ems

Episode Date: February 6, 2025

The Vikings have a need at running back this offseason and the big game is just a few days aways. Matthew Coller is joined by Mike Schopp of The Deep End Podcast to rank Minnesota's options at RB as well as make some 'big game' pick ems. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and it is our Purple Insider Fantasy Shope with Mike Shope, WGR 550 in Buffalo, also ADP Chasing and the Deep End Fantasy Football Podcast. And Mike, this is a huge week for all of those fans of underdog fantasy, because on underdog, it is a no sweat Sunday for the big games. So you need to go check that out. That means that everyone either cashes in or gets their money back in bonus credit. So I don't even know how this is possible, but that is what they are doing at underdog fantasy they've been an incredible sponsor for the show all year long so make sure you go sign up with the code purple to claim your special pick first time deposit offer up to a thousand dollars in bonus cash must be 18 or older terms apply concerned with your play call 1-800-GAMBLER

or visit ncpgambling.org the big thing for us mike here is going to be underdog pick'ems for the big game and so we've got hires and lowers to go over with all sorts of players for this game but i do want to begin with as we often do a topic relating to the minnesota vikings so i was going over free agent lists and things and trying to consider what guys might get paid in free agency. And I got a little bit fixated on the running back position. I feel like this is so intertwined with the fantasy world that this is a perfect topic for you. And so I started making a list, like what be the the players that I would expect to have the best production for the Minnesota Vikings next year if you slotted each guy in free agent or draft pick

so I came up with a list of who would be best who they could actually possibly get and my question for you would be there's two to three rookies who could be taken in the first round. Would you prefer them to guys with sample sizes who are in free agency? Let's start there and then I'll make the list. Almost always. You know, in a real life context, there are all the differences between the prospects, you know, too numerous to mention. You try to fit which guy goes into your scheme best. And

much of that is beyond my level of expertise. But, you know, I think you're right that a couple could go in the first round. Ashton Gentry definitely will go in the first round, probably, you know, the top half of the first round and then maybe one or two others get there. Last year, we had one running back go in the first two rounds combined, Jonathan Brooks, and he was entering the league off a torn ACL. Then he got hurt again, and that didn't pay off. The next was Trey Benson to Arizona. James Conner was very durable again for Arizona. Benson really did not become a factor. So what happened last year in terms of fantasy was it wasn't until the fourth round where there were a slew of running backs picked where you had Bucky Irving go, later Tyrone

Tracy to the Giants. A couple of those late round guys were the salvation at that position because day one, day two, almost nothing. Blake Cor that position because day one day two almost nothing Blake Corum another one on day two with the Rams in the third round and it was the Kyron Williams show again so tough year at that position this year is supposed to be all the way different you know is it two or three in the first round is it double digits by the end of the second day. My co-host on ADP Chasing, Davis Maddock, thinks yes, that there could be as many as 12 picked by Friday. And I was thinking of when he and I were talking on Monday's episode

how in the 2020 draft, there ended up being five, not until the last pick of the first round with Clyde Edwards-Hilaire was there a running back picked. But then you had four go pretty much top half of round two Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins I think was picked 55 so every year is different I think with fantasy football especially when we're talking about like the big board on underdog. Again, the key difference we've mentioned many times, you and I, between a regular fantasy league that can be an underdog league, but also the tournaments where you're really shooting for upside and that pushes rookies up on those rankings. I'd want five to 10 rookies in a fantasy draft right now, in a big board draft, maybe more than any free agent.

Yeah. So this is an interesting one because my brain goes a little more toward the free agents oftentimes because I have a sample size that I can look at and say, this is what this guy has actually been in the NFL. And that feels easier and more predictive to me than, Hey, it could be Trent Richardson and he might be the next great running back, but he might just not be able to play at all in the NFL because there has been so many guys through the years who have a lot of hype and a lot of reasons to think they can be great. And then they get there and you go, Oh, uh, he's not what we thought. But I do feel like the fact that I had to go right to Richardson. I mean, you think about the, the, the running backs who've been drafted higher,

they haven't all become Derek Henry. They haven't all become Saquon Barkley, but there's a baseline where it seems like if you become Joe Mixon, you're, you're pretty darn good at that position. And Delvin cook in that 17 draft, which was just incredible with all those different running backs, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson has not become the next Barry Sanders or Thurman Thomas, but he's pretty darn good at football. And I, even with someone like Jameer Gibbs, it's almost hard to think about the top two round running backs who have turned out to just be nothing over the last couple of years, where I bet if you compared the hit rate to almost any other position, running back probably

has the highest of being at least a dude who is involved in his team's running game and is solid and is a guy you could draft in fantasy and we'll get you yards and touchdowns and so forth it's either between there a difference maker there's not too many that are top two round guys that i would just say oh wow he was a horrendous bust i I mean, those seem like the outliers. I wonder if that's sort of the nature of the position a little bit, like in order to get into that conversation at the top, you mentioned Edward to layer. He's one of those guys, but even to be there, you have to be better than a wide receiver prospect. You have to be better than a quarterback prospect. Kenny pick it's a first round pick. Okay. But a running back, Kenny

Pickett is undrafted, I think. Well, you know, it's a few different things. Like the replaceability at that position is why we don't have as many drafted earlier, like we grew up, you know, used to. So there's that, but on the other side of that, if a team does make that investment, not that teams are always great thinkers, but you would think that that player would be in a pretty, who is one of these free agents this year, by the way. The Steelers did not pick up his fifth year. He was never efficient, just up and down when it came to receiving usage, up earlier when he had Roethlisberger, but that kind of went away. Just okay. I mean, to everybody's eyes, Najee Harris was, at best, just okay. I mean, to everybody's eyes, Najee Harris was at best just okay, but they did use

the hell out of him, especially earlier in his career. And his teams were good to pretty good, sometimes anyway, and it amounted to a playable asset. It always felt gross clicking on Najee Harris, even when he was a rookie, to many, but especially after that. But, you know, you sometimes have to do that. You and I talked about Ezekiel Elliott back in the offseason, and oh, geez, could you really click on Ezekiel Elliott? I know it feels terrible, but it's okay to have on a best ball team a couple of guys like that where you think the roles are going to be there, And that was generally the case with Harris. Travis Etienne was another later first-round pick to Jacksonville, and not so much this past season, but at other times also.

I mean, a better player than Harris, but not amazing. And, you know, you generally got paid off, I would say, with those two guys based on where they go. So teams, you know, you can see a wide receiver picked in the first round, doesn't click with the quarterback, scheme, you know, the defense is great, so there's not a lot of pass volume. Different things can lead to an outcome where, like Odunze, this year for the Bears, I mean, fabulous prospect,

but a total bust in terms of fantasy because the offense was just inept. They're running back. You want to feel better about the fantasy potential for an early round running back. We are, having said that, we have waited a while, though, for one of these guys, first round really. I mean, there haven't been many picks of running backs in the first round which contributes to this of course it's been a while

since we've had a round one running back fall into a team and dominate and be okay this is Bijan could have been that player I mean he was he was picked top 10, right? But they had Tyler Algier, who they liked. It was Arthur Smith. Bijan was coming off the field all the time. And for where he went in underdog drafts, which would have been like late first round, early second round, probably around where Genti is going this year, you got crushed

because there just was not enough volume there. Barkley is the last one who was picked in the first round by the Giants. This is 2018, I think, and was great. And like you had, there was no questions asked. You know, the team wasn't great, but he was. And you got rewarded there. But every one of these guys since, CEH is an obvious example, didn't really, even Gibbs, I mean, Gibbs comes closer to Barkley for a rookie season and he was kind of fine.

But Montgomery being there this past year, he was amazing. But Montgomery's presence there, you know, it was just okay. So I'm ready for Jenty to go to the right team and have that team, you know, feed them like we all kind of think it should when you make that kind of a draft investment. Folks, I'm trying a new thing in order to stop going to fast food restaurants all the time with my busy schedule. It is called Tempo Meals. Tempo is a weekly delivery service that delivers chef crafted meals from a dietitian approved menu fresh to your door. They're perfectly portioned lunches and dinners.

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dot com slash purple insider rules and restrictions apply. All right. I'll give you my, my top five list here. And this is if the Vikings can get anybody. So I also think that gentee will go higher, but you know, we also usually think a lot of things about the draft and then Will Levis, who's mocked top five from every analyst ends up

in the second round, like things happen. So my top five Gentee is obviously number one for, if I could have any running back, even just for 2025, I would probably go with him. And when you look, and I know he's playing at Boise state, so it's not always facing Bama, but there's just no other running backs in his world of the analytic numbers do you remember baker mayfield and how pff when they put out some of their accuracy and different things he sort of broke their system because he was so incredibly accurate and efficient in college that's kind of how gent he is when they have the charts. He's like way over off with everybody,

you know, way away from everybody else in yards after contact, broken tackles. He could catch the ball, all, all these things. He looks like someone who is special at that position. Oh,

Marion Hampton. I know less about, cause I liked watching gentee, but I would still take him as well as a head of any of the free agent class. This free agent class does not have guys that are like Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Those are Hall of Fame talents. It has a lot of Joe Mixon's and Tony Pollard's where you go like, yeah, I like that guy.

I think that guy could play. He can get a thousand yards, but he's not going to average six yards to carry or something crazy. So I had the, the two rookies first, but I had Najee Harris after in part, because I think Najee Harris is really talented and has played with no quarterbacks. And I remember our friend, Eric eager before he went off to work for the Carolina Panthers and the NFL. And I used to listen to his podcast all the time. And he got to listen to his podcast all the time. And he got an argument on this podcast with Thomas Dimitrov, former NFL GM about whether

the quarterback impacts the running back. And we think of them as totally separate. And Eric's argument was nobody impacts the running back more than the quarterback. So if the quarterback is a runner, you see this from James Cook. You see this from Saquon Barkley. You see from Derek Henry, great running backs become astounding when they have a running quarterback, or even if you have a passing game that scares people. When was the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers had a passing game that scared people? It's going to be quite some time ago. And here's my Najee Harris stat that Najee Harris and James Cook had the same percentage of rushing yards over expected last year, or very, very close. They ranked right next to each other. And James Cook had an incredible breakout season

and Najee Harris averaged four yards of carry and no one thought about him. That I think circumstances really dictate these things. Saquon Barkley's a four and a half yard per carry guy on one team and a six yard a carry guy on another team. I think there's Harris potential for that if he was on a team like the Vikings that has Jefferson, a downfield passing game, a lot of light boxes and things like that. I think his ceiling could be higher than what it's been in Pittsburgh.

Well, the closest comp for me to that kind of an argument would be Jacobs in Green Bay. I mean, Jacobs, he had a big year there a couple years ago for Vegas, but also has been somebody that just generally speaking, at least mixed bag, you you know is he actually good um but got the volume in Vegas and again was somebody that based on the price in a fantasy draft was okay the one year he was great um in Green Bay they ran the ball a lot. You know, the defense was good. The schedule was amenable. And you got a great fantasy year out of Jacobs.

The key there, and I think this was, to me, unexpected, is that they drafted Marshawn Lloyd in the third round, and there had been another couple of guys in the mix too, Emmanuel Wilson, Chris Brooks eventually. And I didn't really think, because of LeFleur's history that he would just go hard into one guy. But they trusted Jacobs well enough to do that. That's what you need for any of these veterans.

Aaron Jones, I guess, got that in Minnesota. He would be at the top of my list probably, depending on what he has left. Harris is younger. But, you know, for fantasy purposes, you need to feel like, well, what's going to happen? Najee Harris, in this case, goes to a team that, you know, 20 touches. Like, Cook comes off the field half the time.

He only plays half the snaps in Buffalo, and he had 16 rushing touchdowns. He's fine. So, yeah, that's what we're going to be looking for here as we get into free agency. Free agency, the dust will settle before the draft. And so we'll know going into the draft where the best landing spots are better than we know now. And I also think that just for to connect it to the Vikings, that they are a team that mostly just plays one running back. Even when Alexander Madison was struggling, they were still running him out there most of the time until basically the end

of the season. And last year, Cam Akers got a handful of carries and did well, but it was still the Aaron Jones show for the entire time. So that's what they're looking for is somebody who's going to stay on the field. And I'm sure they would love someone who could actually play on third down so they wouldn't always have to put the fullback in. So here's the thing. I don't really know what to do with these two guys with Rico Dowdle and Aaron Jones, because I think I would take these two guys over the other draft picks.

You have to give me special and Scadabo is good. And Caleb Johnson from Iowa is a guy that I really like in the third round for the Vikings potentially. But if you're talking mid rounds, it's just not the same as somebody who's forced their way to the front of that conversation at that position. Dowdle has one year of averaging 4.6 yards per carry and over a thousand yards. And Jones has this huge career of being an awesome football player. But Jones played the whole season last year

and he was banged up probably every single game down the stretch. He went from averaging over five yards to carry early in the year to finishing is having a fine season. He does catch the ball a lot, but doubt only has this one year, but he also has no mileage on the bottom. So he's 26,

27. This was his only year of actually ever playing. And he performed really well. I think I would lean health here and go toward the guy. As much as I respect Aaron Jones, it was amazing to be around him. He's everything that everybody says he was. But if I have to make a kind of shrewd decision here, I need the guy that I think is going to stay on the field more and has more maybe burst remaining because I felt that that was really where it was missing for Aaron Jones was that next level jolt and a stat for you. The Vikings dead last over the

last three years in 20 plus yard runs. They need explosiveness out of this position. I think that Jones got them what was there, but is not going to get that extra gear where he ends up running for 40 yard touchdowns. That's all part of it. Um, Dowdell is interesting to me too. Like I would think possibly Dallas would want to go back to him, uh, not knowing like what kind of free agent market he might have. He's kind of mid, right? Like you're saying just wasn't a great prospect hasn't doesn't have the tread on the tires whatever it is or does I guess is the way to put that um you also want to think about in fantasy of course receiving and Jones is you know an all-timer when it comes to catching balls out of the backfield underdog is is half point PPR, but it still matters.

And Dowdle was good for like two to three targets a game, really just not a big deal. We do have data from the big board drafts so far. Underdog is so technologically savvy and fast that as soon as the drafts start piling up, and there have been hundreds, if not thousands already in that tournament, you get the rankings based on what has happened so far. And Jones is the top free agent running back

in the consensus of drafts so far at Underdog, the big board. 29th is his ADP at the running back position. It's his rank, running back 29. Early eighth round, I guess it is. And then you get to J.K. Dobbins on the list too. Najee Harris, who we talked about. And Dowdle. Dowdle is running back 41.

So you're RB4, basically. And then there's a big gap to Javante Williams and Nick Chubb, who kind of go like 15th, 16th round. No idea where or if there is anywhere for either of those guys at this point. So Dobbins and Akers, two free agents coming off who have had Achilles injuries. Akers has had two. Especially Dobbins really did well for himself, I think, this year with L.A. He made it. He got hurt and came back even and was there for them in the end.

So he's another interesting one. Yeah, I did think about Dobbins as well. The Achilles is just so scary. I mean, when you have that, like how long is that going to hold up? You know, Cam Akers did look great. He, I think, averaged four and a half yards of carry coming off the bench for the vikings which is incredible because he's had two of those achilles injuries but anytime somebody has that you just think ticking time bomb which would make

me a little concerned about an investment there but that's another part of it the vikings really have to consider they have an empty cornerback room. They need interior offensive line. They need a defensive tackle. They might need a safety depending on whether Cam Bynum or Harrison Smith or both end up leaving. So how much money are you willing to spend at the running back position? If you're Najee Harris, your price might be boosted by the idea of Saquon and the idea of Derrick Henry for some, it only takes one team to be like, we're going to find our Derrick Henry and it's going to be this guy.

Uh, Dobbins might be the cheaper option. He might be the one that if you take the risk based on the injury that you can get for, it may be like 5 million instead of 10 million. And that might matter to the Vikings, depending on where they're at. So this becomes a little bit of a tricky thing because I do think there might be a team or two that says, all right, there's only really one or two guys here that are worth signing last year. And the NFL does work this way.

Sometimes last year, this worked for some teams. We need to try to do the same thing. And that might bump up the price. The best option for the Vikings though, probably is Jones back with Cam Scadabo or Caleb Johnson or whoever they can get in the third round. And you try to have a duo there. I'm just concerned about the fact that they've never really done the duo thing since Kevin O'Connell has been the coach. Yeah. And that that's what makes, this is the first time I've, I've pondered Najee Harris, you know, as a free agent and Minnesota, that'll be way up there. If not number one for a landing spot for any of these guys. And Harris has an interesting profile for it because if it's durability, they're looking for he's been that.

Um, and then you get a day three running back to compliment him. I would think they'd definitely be a candidate to do that. I think most teams are. Last year was just so different, where we all kind of got comfortable with, got used to these running backs are old's, that's pretty much that. And yet Barkley, Henry Jacobs, Mixon, you know, all did really well. And even guys like Camara and Connor who didn't change teams also held, held up. And so, damn, you know, like I'm somebody, these,

these underdog tournaments, you really need your rookies. You need to be able to take that risk. And it was just a year where a lot of us busted because we were drafting receivers instead of those other guys and younger running backs and, you know, handcuffs and different things. So Harris would be an interesting Viking. I don't think he's great, but he would go into a really good offense and there'd be, you know, potential for big points for a guy you'd expect to be kind of a bell cow like what Minnesota has done. There will be lots of running backs picked on Saturday.

I mean, we might see, like I said before, 10 or so picked by the third round. I still wouldn't want to be, if it were my team, spending that rich of draft capital on that. I might be hoping for round four, round five. Like we did see a lot last year. Yeah. I think,

uh, well, the Vikings have two fifth round picks. It's just when you're swinging for that Bucky Irving, or you swing for that Aaron Jones, we all forget about the graveyard of other guys who were picked in that range. Like,

Oh yeah, you could kind of get a running back anywhere because this guy worked out. It's like, well, what about all those other guys who were picked in that range. Like, oh yeah, you could kind of get a running back anywhere because this guy worked out. It's like, well, what about all those other guys? The Vikings did that with Daniel Hunter for years. They always drafted an athletic guy who had no college production. It was really tall in the third round of the fourth round because they were like,

we're looking for our next Daniel Hunter. Newsflash, they never found him. It was just a bunch of guys who couldn't play because he was an outlier. And so the same kind of thing exists there. Uh, but it'll be an interesting thing that they have to do here with a limited amount of draft capital to spend and a really big need at a position. I really think they have to punish people for playing their safeties in the parking lot to try to prevent a huge place from Justin Jefferson. And they just haven't done that over the last couple of years.

Let us, let us get to the big game. It's an exciting time, Mike. I know you move on to another thought. Just wanted to say before we do, I mentioned, I don't know if I mentioned the rest of the point about the rookies in the big board. I mean, the veterans, the free agents that we talked about there are five rookie running backs going by the sixth round in that tournament and by the time we get down to rico dowdle there are 10 or 12 rookies who are already picked in these tournaments i don't like

i'm not a prospect analysis or analyst and i don't have a lot of my own opinions on which guys are the right guys. I sort of let other people be my guide when it comes to that. But what you're trying to do there is and this is what we do on ADP chasing every Monday is evaluate, you know, where are the trends? Who's hot? Who's not? And what might have changed so that if you're drafting early, I mean, casual fans are always sort of making fun of how, you know, fantasy players might be drafting before the season is even over here. Like we seem like maniacs and maybe we are, but the edge is in sort of trying to predict where those trends are going. Jack Beck or Besh, a receiver,

last week at the Senior Bowl made a lot of noise. And he went from somebody way down the list that might not have even been drafted in most of these leagues to somebody like, okay. And so where do you want to be? You want to be on the end of that where he was drafted right at the end and maybe you liked him.

And now you stop drafting him because you know you're drafting somebody likely to be more productive in that 10th or 11th round and then make a different dart throw at the end so rookies are always a popular thing in these tournaments you've got the guys we talked about gentienty. Genty goes right before Christian McCaffrey in the big board so far. Picked 15, so early second, right before McCaffrey, or right next to him.

Then you have Caleb Johnson, you mentioned, Hampton before that, and then the two Ohio State guys, Henderson and Judkins, go, and that's, again, by the sixth round, if you're going

to get that kind of take that kind of chance at, at a rookie running back, you got to do it pretty early. Yeah. That's something that I've really learned from you is just how much the fantasy universe loves the unproven running back, which I think is, I mean, I think it's fair. There's been a lot of home runs hit on that, but there's also been a lot of players who show up to training camp and cannot do the offense and so that's something maybe that's a little bit easier with that position is adjusting to an offense i think receiver requires so many route details these days offensive line is damn near impossible for young players. Whereas running back, you can kind of work it out.

So you're running a couple different schemes, and if they're good, they're going to make it work. Yeah, and the conversation we're having is the right one to try to figure this out, which is take Minnesota. What should they want to do? You've got mid-veter, who, you know, something about including Jones and acres who have literally been on your team. And then you've got all these rookies and you're trying to, this is why it's so much fun. You're trying to predict where they

would need to be drafted and okay. Can this guy catch the ball? Is he big enough to handle three downs blocking the guys who struggle in pass protection, they're the ones who you just never hear from again. Or as rookies, that's always a big area, I think, to know if it's somebody that has shown well in pass protection, there's a guy that a coach should want to have, should want to be able to trust on the field as a rookie. And, you know, that's third down, that's passing plays,

that could be good stuff. So, yeah, a lot of them fizzle, most and you know that's third down that that's passing plays that could be good stuff so yeah a lot of them fizzle most you know especially the Saturday picks most do but when they don't Bucky Irving and Tracy to a different extent that's that's huge James Robinson when he was undrafted by Jacksonville and then had a great season as a rookie got lucky that other guys were injured and they cut Fournette. And here's James Robinson out of a small school in Illinois, I think, maybe Eastern Illinois or something. That could be wrong, but just was a home run in fantasy out of nowhere. So that's, you know, you're drafting the veterans, again,

specifically in a fantasy context. You draft the J.K. Dobbins of the world, that's okay. And you want to have that for some semblance of a floor, but it's those young players that can really spike. And then especially in these tournaments where the big money gets paid out based on weeks 15 through 17, now we're at a point where, you know, a team was bad. They want to see the rookie. The rookie knows the system. Now he can be trusted and he gets more playing time in those weeks where the older players, you know, might've gotten hurt or just been weeded out. So lots, lots to consider. And it's really fun to try to figure out where the, who the teams will be.

That'll be in the market like Minnesota.nesota on the fact that there's so many good running backs in this draft class just adds a different layer to this for trying to figure out like maybe this guy would have been a second rounder but the teams that needed running backs took them earlier so now he's dropping down the board and he's available for a different team like the vikings uh we'll have a lot to talk about there. It's actually going to be the first time since must be 2017 that I've even looked at the list of running backs for as potentially for the Vikings to go to the combine and ask anyone who are the running backs this year. That hasn't happened. So that'll be fun. Yeah.

But let's let us slide over to the big game here because uh underdog fantasy and again like i said at the beginning of the show they got the no sweat sunday going on which means that you either cash in on your big game entry or get your money back in bonus credit which sounds like a pretty good deal to me so make sure you use that word uh purple as your promo code to sign up would love if you did that help support the show i think there's a good place to start with our pickums on underdog fantasy, which is the quarterbacks. Let's start with the quarterbacks here. Here's your number for a yardage passing for Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hertz,

two 51.5 for Mahomes and two 12.5 for Jalen Hertz. How do we begin to assess these numbers, Mike? You have to tell yourself a story, right? You're going to, we didn't always win on these pick-ems. They're hard to win, but what in your mind is what this game looks like? And I reserve the right to change my mind, but here we are talking on Thursday and I've gotten to a point where I think it's Philadelphia's game. I think they're too good defensive line versus a shakier Kansas City front that they could really wreck this game right there. And so Chiefs on offense, I don't really love any of it. I've been looking for a couple of the cheaper ones like a Hopkins to catch more than 1.5 passes, something like that. But I have not gotten to Mahomes. I liked Mahomes for the Buffalo

game because the betting lines and everything seemed to be pushing you toward Kansas City is going to deal. Mahomes is going to deal in this game. And he did, but he still didn't get to his number. In a close game where he was really effective, I think the number was something like 254, and he got to maybe 245, something in that range. So I thought sometimes you're really right and you still get beat. And so it's been a year for Kansas City where with all their winning, they've really had their troubles offensively overall, passing game.

I'm lower on Mahomes, if you haven't figured that out yet. I appreciate the greatness and the legacy stuff that's on the line if they can win a third. But in my mind, this is not going to be their day. Hertz, I mean, the one that I hit in the NFC Championship had a Hertz rushing touchdown, and it's just so hard to deny that. I mean, he had three in that game. You know, that's probably not happening,

but he had 45 fantasy points in the prior Superbowl against Kansas city. I like that for the Eagles too, that they had that experience and Hertz was really good in that game. Um, so I don't think I want to be on lower when it comes to Hertz, but I, I like the, the, the rushing touchdown, the tush push thing. And when it comes to him. And there's a, there's a little extra juice on that, uh, on underdog actually to, to go with, uh, the rushing touchdown. But as far as my homes goes, the thing about trying to rack up yards, you mentioned a story that has to be told is if we could see the Chiefs getting behind early, you're down 14 right off the bat. Okay, well, he's probably throwing for 300 then at that point, I would think, if they end up falling behind. But the Chiefs just play this plodding game where they're going to throw a screen, and they're going to throw a slant, and they're going to throw a curl, and they're going to throw a screen.

And if your goal is to have 14 play drives, now let's also consider how Vic Fangio plays defense. It's always been the Vic Fangio concept to play back and force the other team to have 14 play drives. And the idea is we have enough talent on our defense that if you have 14 plays one of them will go wrong for you and we'll get a turnover we'll get a stop on third down or something right a sax something that ruins your 14 play drive so you kind of have like that's how kansas city wants to play that's how philadelphia wants you to play but neither one of those things are 75 yard touchdown passes that rack up a ton of yards they're all right OK, they use the entire first quarter for one field goal drive and Mahomes has 49 yards passing on the drive. Now you've already shortened the game. And I think that's what Kansas City does. So that makes it harder for them to get to 250 plus passing yards on something like this. I do think there's an interesting one here with Mahomes, though,

that I might go higher on, and that is his rushing yards. I thought you might say that. That's right. The pressure in the playoffs, he runs with the football. 31.5 rushing yards. It's a fairly high number for a quarterback but he just does this and I think I would hit the higher on that yeah that that's a close one for me um one of my favorite wins ever in this was the lower on Mahomes in the first Super Bowl against San Francisco where he cleared

the number easily but on the kneel downs to win the game, he runs backwards four or five yards on each one. And he pushed the door from like a no brainer higher to actually lower. So that's hard to predict, but he does that on kneel downs. You can get, that's a pretty bad beat. If you have the higher by like five or six yards and he did not consider that.

Did not consider that. That's a great point. Yeah. So yeah, I did not consider that did not consider that that's a great point yeah so yeah i did not consider that i don't know how you you know bet on it but that's something else when it comes to him but you're right in the playoffs like like alan does you know that they're gonna run like it's a do or die because it is. So, um, yeah, I mean, there's a lot to pick from with, uh, the big game. I mean, you have what, like 40 some options on my homes alone. It's great. It, uh, 46, I think different ways to put something on my homes in this big game of all games. Really? It's really the biggest game. the entire year before we started today uh some of these every week we have done a pick them and some i admit are like do do do do let's let's go talk

and and others like okay what are we what do we want to do let's think this through what what's the total what are what are the markets telling you uh so this morning was one of the biggest game. This morning was one of those days for me. But can you see me pointing? Right there is a place called Canada. And every once in a while, underdog would be like, nope, we cannot verify your location.

So I might end up changing my mind because I could not enter my picks, the ones that I sort of sat down and studied and went with earlier because, you know, right there is Canada. Cause underdog thinks you're in Canada. That's really funny. Yeah. Yeah. I tell people sometimes they're like, well, how close is Buffalo to Canada? I'm like, how far can you hit a golf ball? If you can get it across that river, then you can get to Canada. Okay. Well, what did your, your study tell you about Mr. Saquon Barkley?

Because his numbers are very high and he has earned those one 15.5 in terms of rushing. Would you go higher or lower there for Saquon Barkley? It's an amazing number. Barkley has had an incredible season and sites keep trying to, all right, can we make this number high enough when it comes to his rushing? And in the game, I'm imagining he gets there. So I'm higher on Barkley. It's such a high number that it can be pretty tough to click, but that's why I like it. There's a line about scared money, Matt. So I'm higher on Barkley because that's the game I see. I think if that 14-0 scenario happens, it's over because Kansas City just does not have the big punches this year.

Maybe it'll be another version of Kadarius Toney and Sky Moore and Juju. Somebody will get that done. The way they're using Worth using worthy I think because they just never got the downfield stuff going is is pretty short and Philadelphia will put the pressure on to an extent where I think the Chiefs will just not be able to you know have Mahomes hang out in the pocket and wait for something to come free so in in that game that game, it's a, it's a Eagles, just too good dominant running the ball Barkley. That's why I don't love the Hertz passing totals really, because I think it's a game where they could just be so superior physically that it's a Barkley game.

So I like higher. The only thing that I hesitate slightly on is just that so much of Saquon Barkley's yardage is tied up in 40 plus yard runs. Like he needs to run for a 70 yard touchdown in order to get his yards because it's a little bit, there was a joke about Adrian Peterson. It wasn't feast or famine. It was like famine, famine feast for Adrian Peterson. And at the end of the day, he averages six yards to carry, but he would need those huge explosives in order to get there. So how do you really predict if he's going to get a huge explosive run here or there? I don't know what Kansas city has as far as a run defense, because you have to have something on a different level to slow down what they have.

Kansas City can get after the quarterback. Kansas City can certainly rush the passer on a third down, as everybody knows, because of Steve Spagnuolo. But against Buffalo, they didn't really stop James Cook all that much. Nope. They were able to run the ball quite a bit, and I would go with you on this one one that even if it's a close game, Philadelphia will run in close games. They'll run when they're behind. They have such an attack that can create explosive plays

that if they're down 10 points, well, they're going to run on first down. They're going to run on second down. They're not going to be afraid of that to continue to go back to Barkley. And if Kansas City can't stop it, especially, and we've seen this play out in the big game throughout history where a team gets ahead, the other defense gets worn down, and then it's Terrell Davis going off or Timmy Smith. Is that the guy's name? Timmy Smith. Timmy Smith. Yes. Also explosive plays, but I know what you're saying. Three running backs in the last 15 years have hit 100 yards in a Super Bowl. It has not happened very often. Damian Williams for the Chiefs is the last to do it. Marshawn Lynch was the last to do it before him. And then Frank Gore. Before that, you're going back to Colts Bears. Wow.

So like Barkley's number is 115 and a half. Nobody's done that in close to 20 years in a Super Bowl, but I don't think there's any particular good reason for that. I think one fun Barkley option is this. So he doesn't really get the ball through the air. We know in his career, he's been great at it, but it's not really what Philadelphia has done. And some of that is because they haven't needed it.

Like this game against Washington. Yeah, you might need the big touchdown. What happens on the first offensive play? He runs for 60. So you've got it. You've got it out of the way on the first first literally the first snap of the game by the Eagles there is an option on underdog for Barkley for him to to be the first player in the game to 20 receiving yards it is a 16x play so I don't know like does it have to be AJ brown or goddard or devante smith could be one

swing pass it's one check down right if kansas city's playing back and all right here under pressure flip it to barkley and he goes for 20 yards you've just hit 16x like that not likely but these are the ones i think are really fun if you're not playing for super high stakes to fit into your pick-ems. Love that. Love that. So any other ones? I need a weird one. I mean, that's pretty weird. That wasn't weird enough. No, I mean, that's pretty weird.

That is pretty weird. But I like to have one that has to do with some player who you just never would expect to be involved. Well, you can do ones with the punter that catches my interest. Do you have Noah gray handy? Let me see. There's a lot.

There's a lot here. Yes, I have Noah gray. Yes. Noah gray. Would you want to do a touchdown on Noah gray? Good. Would make a lot of sense.

That's a time. Yeah. 4X. Yeah. 11.5 receiving yards for Noah Gray. Sounds pretty good. Higher than 1.5 catches. How about this?

They've got this defensive tackle who I only really have paid attention to because he's a free agent and every defensive tackle. Just please someone get the Vikings and defensive tackle and get the back field. Uh, Tershawn Wharton, who is kind of, he's kind of been involved throughout the playoffs and stuff. All he needs here is 1.5 solo tackles and it's 1.45 X.

I think I want to make Tershawn Wharton. My God, actually he only, even to do a little less, he only needs 1.45 X. I think I want to make to Sean Wharton. My God, actually he only, even to do a little less, he only needs 1.5 total tackles. They have Saquon Barkley. A defensive tackle is going to get two tackles. Solo.

Yeah. You got, you stumped me on this one. I would need to see like Snapchat, you know, but he plays, he plays. Yeah. Again,

it fits into my game script pretty well. Just, you know, tackles linebackers, defensive interior defensive linemen, uh, like that rather than a game where you expect 50 passes. Yeah. I don't like sacks. I don't like interceptions. They're just like too random, but I mean, everyone's talking about Zach Bond, great player, 5.5 solo tackles on all the screens and stuff. What if I just do all my pickups on tackles? I mean, you could make history.

Zach Bond is great. I wouldn't want to go lower on anything with him. 5.5 solo tackles against the team that does nothing but throw screens. Sure. Crossing routes. Kelsey. I love it. Yeah.

Kelsey stuff. They'll talk about it. Yeah. Kelsey stuff. They'll talk about it at the underdog offices. They'll be like, did you see this one? This guy went, this guy went punter and all defense, all tackle totals. Well,

again, that code is purple and it is the no sweat Sunday. So jump on to underdog play along they've been a tremendous sponsor of the show we've had a lot of fun doing the pickums all year long at the end of the show so mike uh what do you think one more after this we break down the the big game and then uh preview the true beginning of the off season and we'll go from there. So it has been a great, great time leading up to this. Thank you. I, I, uh, concur and we've got to do the obligatory sports talk. All right. Kansas city's place in history. Uh, after this game too, next week or depending on what happens.

Um, so you think Philly is winning. I also think Philly is winning. I like them. You know, you can find, uh, what they call alt lines. So, I mean, Philadelphia is a point and a half underdog, right? Can't see favorite in the game. Uh, I'm not sure I even know that, but I know the line is like one and a half. It's been stuck there. I'm going to find minus nine and a half for the Eagles, probably dabble a little bit higher than that. 13 and a half numbers like that, probably dabble a little bit higher than that. 13 and a half numbers like that, just to see if I can get a game that we won't want to watch. But Kansas City Super Bowls have been,

except for the Tampa one, have been great. They win the one score games. How do they lose? They lose bad. All I want is Roger to rig the game. So I have some fun watching it. Come on, Rog. If you're rigging games.

You think he might not? Is there some reason to think he might not? I'm just kidding. Real quick, what I don't understand about the people who really want that to be the truth. Like, why do you watch football? What is the point of this? Okay, another question would be, are there actually people that think this is true or is it just that people really enjoy logging on to websites where other people are and bothering

everyone is that the real thing well it's i think that might be it's all it's all a sense of community and there there is a large maybe even growing community of football fans who don't trust the refs, whether it's rigged, but it's, you know, great teams, home teams getting calls, things that we've grown up with and have known about sports just, you know, practically our whole lives. So whenever it comes around again, I've just got no time for it. It's a, it's a boring conversation that gets you nowhere. No matter what you think is really the issue, it's still frustrating.

If you think they're incompetent, that's frustrating. If you think it's fixed, that's frustrating. You can't do anything with any of it. So I just kind of miss me with the ref stuff because in Buffalo, right, they lose to the Chiefs and Josh Allen's quarterback sneak, and there was a worthy catch. And, you know, there was a worthy catch. Why didn't they challenge it? All this. And you just hear these twisted, this twisted logic for why it can't just be human error. If it even is an error. I mean, it's got to be really hard in, in full speed to make some of these calls. And what, if it goes Kansas city's way, that's a story.

Uh, it just isn't to me. I know some of the data has pointed out that the chiefs have gotten more than their share perhaps, but I think that's what comes from being great. And when you're what they've been, you're playing at home all the time and with the exception of last year but that is a known advantage in sports in any sport when it comes to officiating so i i just don't i didn't mean to pick the sports talk radio scab i know i brought it up no you maybe you did maybe you did no it was me i was just more making fun i i i want to what i want to understand about is that, is that how we get to the point where the commissioner is asked about it, because this is like, no, your history go back and watch old games. The reffing was so much worse, so much worse in the past. You could think of a hundred

calls that how about the, just give it to him game like the along the sideline. I mean, there's just, there was so many calls throughout history.erry rice fumbled against the the packers there's just a ton of these and it's exactly what you're talking about home teams it's yeah great so anyway well if i were goodell i would have taken that question and i would have given a one-word answer please right just move on. Why did you anyway? Uh, also maybe just, I think people like to be angry about stuff. So maybe that's the thing. Just trying to look for something else.

Anyhow, don't be angry about the super bowl. Try to enjoy it and have a good time. It's not a crisis that it's not two teams that you love. So, uh, we'll see what happens. We'll have a good time and then we'll get together next week.

So thank you very much, Mike. Thanks, Matt.