Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Ranking Vikings free agent priorities

Episode Date: February 6, 2025

We've got a special two-parter for you today. In Part 1 of the episode Matthew Coller answers your questions Vikings free agency questions. In Part 2 Coller is joined by SumerSports' Lindsay Rhodes to talk about the Super Bowl and the Vikings offseason. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and this is another fans-only episode where I answer your tweets and emails, and the show belongs to you. If you want to get involved, feel free to send me an email, Matthew Collar at Gmail, Matthew Collar on Twitter, and feel free to sign up for the newsletter purpleinsider.football where you can get all my written work over there as well so let's not waste any time let's dive right into your questions we'll start off with at kev skull who says what

is the vikings biggest need this off season I assume offensive line running back and some defensive players depending on who is re-signed rank the needs okay well I think that number one if I didn't say the interior offensive line then everybody might unsubscribe immediately but that's not what I would have for number one it is very very important. Trust me, I'm with you. Don't get out the pitchforks. But I actually think the number one need for this team is at cornerback, because right now the only guys under contract that will have even any playing time and are young developing players are Makai Blackman, who is coming off an ACL injury, and Dwight McClothern. And aside from that, everybody else is a free agent.

Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, Byron Murphy Jr. And it will not be easy to replace Byron Murphy Jr. if he doesn't want to resign. Over the last couple of years, he became a very good fit with this Vikings defense. And last year, it wasn't just the interceptions. The interceptions were great, and he made some spectacular plays, but it was also the down-to-down performance that we saw improve from Byron Murphy Jr. to become, I think, a well-above-average NFL corner. Griffin combined for maybe $11 million total spent on the two players. And they played well overall. They weren't Darrell Rivas in his prime or Aqib Talib, but they held that position down

in order for the Vikings to have a top five defense. And they played and they were healthy and they were reliable. But both of those guys, Stephon Gilmore missed a couple games, but aside from that, played mostly the entire season at a fairly high level. Again, that's not saying it was perfect, but even just average at the cornerback position is really good in a division where you've got offenses and quarterbacks and lots of good wide receivers and so forth that is extremely vital to them sustaining the high level of play on the defensive side that they were able to throw out there last year so they have big decisions to make of course i think blackman is going to be a key part of it pencil him in as a starter and then we'll see about dwight mcgln and his development, but they can't just assume

that Dwight McClothern is going to be a guy that goes from undrafted free agent in one year to a quality above average starter, which means making big decisions in free agency. How much do you pay Byron Murphy? There's going to be a lot of interest in his services. Who else out there might they be able to go get? Can they go big fish hunting in free agency at that position? Would that mean they have to forego it? I know they've got a lot of space, but would that mean they have to forego big fish hunting in another position like guard?

So corner is the top priority for me. Guard of course is the second because they can't continue to go forward with blake brandle starting at left guard dalton reisner is a free agent and as much as dalton reisner was able to stabilize the offensive line in the middle of the season that's not someone that is going to move the needle as a starter he was a good pass protector and he ranked highly by pFF and pass pro, which is more important than the run blocking. But you also can't be a deficient run blocker if the Vikings are going to improve their run game. So I think that that position needs two new starters there. We'll see what they decide to do at the center position.

So I would have corner one guard number two. And after that, it gets a little tricky because safety comes to mind I don't know if Harrison Smith is coming back or not if he is then it becomes less of a huge priority you need to either resign combine them or find a replacement but they have Theo Jackson they have Josh Metellus there are other players that are already here that you don't necessarily have to go out and get a big name player. So the next place on my list would probably be running back. And is that going to be in free agency or the draft or both?

You can't just address that in the draft. You can't pick maybe if you're doing it for a first round or O'Marion Hampton or Ashton Jenty, if he were to fall to the back end of the first, which would be shocking. But if you're picking someone in the third round, for example, then you have to have another veteran to go along with that young rookie. Is that going to be Aaron Jones? Are they going to look at Rico Dowdle? Is there somebody else on the free agent list?

I've got it here with me. And it is not a very good group if you're looking for proven starters. Javante Williams, Najee Harris is a very interesting name. In fact, I would be intrigued by Najee Harris. He has been so much of the center of Pittsburgh's offense. He's never played in an offense in Pittsburgh that could actually pass the ball. So he's really had to do everything. Najee Harris interests me, JK Dobbins to some extent. And after that, we're talking about the Amir Abdullah's of the world and role players. So there are very few options at running back, but they got to pick up somebody because it cannot just be, well, we're going to draft guy in the third round. And then, Hey kid,

this entire run game is on you. that would be third for me and then defensive tackle is after that because i think that can be addressed in the draft with one of their top picks of course we've been banging the drum here on the show for a defensive tackle improvement for a long time but i think that the number of options at defensive tackle and the different routes you can go free agency you can look for even role players rotational players in free agency if you can't get one of the big fish and then also draft and they've got a couple players that they've been developing in jalen redmond and levi drake rodriguez so as much as i would like to see them get the next john randall

and have somebody dominate that position for many years to come. It's a little easier as far as priority goes. They could draft one in the first round. Then you got your guy plug and play those defensive tackles often come right into the league. They've already got Harrison Phillips there. They could bring back Jonathan Bullard. You can work, you can work with that in order to fill that position with the options that are available. So as far as priority to build the defense to be elite, yes, that would be right next to corner. But if we're also weighing availability and options, then I would probably put it at fourth on the list and then safety after that. And then where do you go? One, maybe one more position would be, is it worth saying wide receiver? I mean, the number one and number two

are clearly set. And number three, though, Jalen Naylor had a handful of catches this year, and I'm not down on what Jalen Naylor was able to do, but maybe one more weapon there at the wide receiver position that can make them a little more versatile. Maybe someone who's a tad more twitchy. They kind of have three of the same thing. Now Jefferson can, can do it all, but they really have three downfield wide receivers and they don't have the typical slot type wide receiver who gets open in short area and gets you a seven, eight yard completion over the middle on a slant route. They've really got guys who are focused mostly on intermediate and deep route running. So I wouldn't mind having the Vikings look into a

slot type wide receiver there. So that is kind of the off the cuff ranking. I think, you know, you could put defensive tackle a little bit higher but to me corner and guard are the absolute priorities to start with so the next question also has to do with free agency and it's from a friend of mine brandon warren on twitter said uh i want to know what free agents you think would fit in the mold of an andrew van ginkle or blake cashman signing like a step below the best of the best yeah i think that with both Van Ginkle and Cashman, those guys last year were just underrated. That Van Ginkle was somebody who was so versatile, it almost hurt his value because he didn't have huge numbers as an edge rusher,

and he was very good in coverage, but I'm not sure how many people really recognized how good he was as a coverage linebacker. So that was a steal and cashman. I don't know why the Houston Texans didn't want to bring him back, but clearly quite a player. So as far as guys that are along those lines, then we have to talk about the positions that we were just discussing. So this would throw out someone like Trey Smith that everybody's talking about. This would throw out DJ Reed. You're talking about the second wave. So I wrote down a couple of names here. Aaron Banks and Evan Brown are two guards who have been around a little bit. They've developed and they've had good seasons or they're coming off good seasons. Neither one of these guys is an all pro. They're not going to rate 97 on Madden or something like that, but they are above average and seemingly on an upward trajectory into their late twenties. Banks is an enormous dude who's played left guard

for a couple of years for the 49ers and Brown has bounced around a little bit is coming off a good year for the Cardinals. Also Kevin Zeitler a little bit is coming off a good year for the Cardinals also Kevin Zeitler is on the older side the same with Brandon Sheriff those guys are no longer those huge free agent names because of their age but they have great records of health and I know you're looking for the five-year Trey Smith contract to put into guard and just say it's yours buddy no more No more patchwork. But if you do have to patchwork, patchworking it with someone who has been elite in their career is a pretty good idea. Also, Will Hernandez is 30 years old, still probably has a few years after

this. He's coming off an injury. And Matt Pryor of the Bears also had a good season in pass protection last year. Those are kind of some of the names that come to mind on the interior. As far as defensive tackle, BJ Hill is a clear one for me. If you're talking about a player who could be comped to Andrew Van Ginkle, someone that everybody has thought for a long time is a really good player, but he's not big, big, big time. He doesn't have 10 to 12 sacks or anything like that, then a BJ Hill would be that type of player for Cincinnati. He's just been an all around. He can get after the passer and create pressure.

He could stuff the run. He's going to play 700, 800, 900 snaps for your team every year and bring a ton of value on a signing. I'm a big fan of BJ Hill as an idea for the Vikings. At safety, if Cam Bynum leaves, there's Justin Reed from Kansas City. People don't always leave Kansas City, but Trayvon Morig is a guy who not a lot of people will know, but he comes from the Raiders. He's been a nasty player for them. He's a great tackler. He is a physical player, kind of meets the mold of somebody that Brian Flores would like. Javon Holland, I've mentioned before on the show from Miami, but I

really like Morig as a long-term type of option there. If Harrison Smith retires and they lose Cam Bynum, he would be a player I would look to. And there's a couple of corners that popped up in my mind. Chavarrius Ward, Carlton Davis, Mike Hilton. These are three good veterans who are definitely above average players, a little bit old in the tooth, but still above average for sure. And they would qualify to me as players you can absolutely win with that are not DJ Reed. And then I mentioned Najee Harris. Najee Harris is an intriguing idea to me because I think he, if you look at the Saquon Barkley or, you know, even a Derrick Henry. Now, Henry had been unbelievable in his career, but neither one of those guys were coming off great situations.

And I feel the same way for Najee Harris. I don't think he was coming off of the best situation because opponents just knew this team cannot really throw the football so they could load up on the run with the Vikings. If they put a lot of work into that run game, work into the offensive line and Harris can catch the ball as well. They might be able to maximize him on a second deal if the Pittsburgh Steelers let him go. So those are some of the guys I'm keeping an eye on. Not every one of them will hit free agency. That's always a thing we run into this time of year. So things could change, but I like what you're sort of hinting at here is there's this group of free agents that are going to get massive dollars, but the next wave down is often where the best

deals exist. And I think that is a sandbox the Vikings should play in because they have a lot of positions to fill through free agency. So rather than getting one big fish and then having to sort of go bottom barrel with the rest of the signings, what about four guys who fall into that second level type of category? It's a good thought. Folks, I'm trying a new thing in order to stop going to fast food restaurants all the time with my busy schedule. It is called Tempo Meals. Tempo is a weekly delivery service that delivers chef crafted meals from a dietician approved

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So there's two schools of thought on Andrew Van Ginkle. One would be that if you're going to trade a player, you want to do it after their best season. You don't want to trade when your value is down. And if they put Van Ginkle on the trade market, there would be teams calling with fairly high draft picks and good offers for him because he is coming off a great year. He's super unique and versatile and he doesn't cost very much. That's what everybody's looking for. The thing about that is if everybody would want that, then you don't want to give it to somebody else. So with Andrew Van Ginkle, I would lean more toward extension than I would toward let's move on from him. And I know maybe part of your calculation is Dallas Turner and thinking, well, Dallas Turner has to move into this role. But even if

you let Van Ginkle go next year, he's going to sign a big contract. You're going to get a comp pick and so forth. That's always part of the calculation for next year. It really depends though on what do you think of your timeline? Because in my mind, the minute that JJ McCarthy was drafted to the Vikings, 2025 became a win now season, and then they just win 14 games. So you're not talking about, well, we got to move at older assets and then try to bring in draft capital and rebuild. That's no longer where they are. They are just building. They are no longer in a rebuild or even competitive rebuild. type of situation where every year they go into, they're thinking, win the NFC North, compete for a Super Bowl. That means you don't give away talent that's second team all pro with a couple of pick sixes and double digit sacks and dynamic player who fits perfectly for

your defensive coordinator. Like you keep those types of players and you often extend those types of players. And when we talk about age, age is a little different for everybody. Now, I can't predict the future with Van Ginkle, but he's not a quick twitch player, which what I mean is he doesn't live on just instantly beating a tackle around the edge. And if he did, you would lose some of that quick twitch as you get into your thirties and your career goes on. But that's not how Van Ginkle wins. I mean, he wins with technique strength. He is fast, but it's not this lightning like miles Garrett shoot right by you type of pressure that he creates. I mean, it's often just winning with a move or something like that, or getting kind of secondary pressure. When Jonathan Grenard forces movement or a blitz,

he rushes from different spots. He drops back in coverage. He can be really good against the run. Like these are things that travel into your thirties. I have always thought about this and I know football players age fast, but somebody gets to 29, 30 years old and we are ready to just put them in the trash. That's not how I look at Andrew Van Ginkle. I think it would be good for the Vikings to have him on a multi-year contract and you just can't predict injuries. He played the whole year this year after getting banged up last year. I'd much prefer that because I think that there's a lot of teams that would want someone of his caliber, his production, his cap hit, and he'll cost a lot more to extend. But the guy grew

up a Vikings fan. He grew up in Iowa. This place has really worked for him with Brian Flores. He knows at least Flores is here probably for the foreseeable future. So I would be much more in that camp unless somebody went crazy for Andrew Van Ginkle, which I would be surprised if they actually did. So that's where I stand on that. If you're in a different mode, if this was 2020 and the team was just coming off of a failed season, then yeah, okay. Move on from older expensive players that like the kyle rudolphs and so forth that they re-signed instead of moving on from van ginkle and where they stand right now that's not how i'm thinking about it uh brian says what would you be willing to give up or willing to move in a trade for sauce gardner if he wants out of New York and they, for some reason, grant his wishes.

One, I would be extremely surprised if they hired a new coach who is a former corner and defensive coordinator. And he says, I'm going to get rid of one of my most important pieces. So I just don't think in any circumstances, unless again, you go insane for sauce Gardner, that the New York jets would be thinking about trading him, uh, coming off of a year that was really stressful for everybody there. I doubt they weigh his performance last year, as much as they do earlier in his career. When he was elite, he's still young. He's lanky. He can cover man to man. Like he's got it all. And he can make plays on the football. That's a guy that Aaron Glenn is very, very unlikely to move on from. But as far as if he was placed out on

the trade market, is that worth a first round draft pick to the Jets? It might be. I mean, Sauce Gardner goes under that category of your five to seven best corners. And if you've got one of those guys, it completely changes how you can play. 24 for Sauce Gardner is something I would want to do. The consideration you have to make is the salary cap down the road. When you extend Sauce Gardner, that means he's going to be expensive and Jefferson and Derrissaw and Gnard and Hawkinson and all the players that you've paid. So you can't just trade first rounders for players all the time because eventually you run out of the cap room, but that's the advantage of the rookie quarterback contract. So if they were willing, then I would

do it. I don't think they're going to give him up when they have a new coach who wants to get that turned around and be competitive very quickly. Bill says seems quesadilla flamenco's blame for the poor drafting the abysmal 2022 draft but is it really on him doesn't he have to rely on the supposed scouting experts and their input so yeah this comes up every once in a while when we talk about the draft, it is not in any way, shape, or form one person, the general manager, locking himself inside an office and then using his laptop to do the draft while everybody else just sits in another room. put out their hold pre-draft meeting where they went around to the different scouts and said, hey, who's your one guy that you want? Who's your one guy that you want? Who are you interested in? So there are many, many voices. The general manager we think of is just that one dude making all the calls, but he really is a manager. He really is managing all these people. And when we look back at the 2022 draft, one of the people

that he was managing and listening to was Ed Donatel, who appeared to draft some players, or at least, I guess I can't say Donatel drafted them, but at least they appeared to draft players for Donatel's system. So a deep type of playmaking safety that often drops back in the middle of the field and then charges down on the ball to make plays. That's a Fangio system type player. That's an Eddie Jackson type of player that they were looking for with Louis scene. Now, I mean, with Louis scene, he was never going to become good no matter what happened. And maybe the injury ended any chances of that, but that's what they were thinking. That's a fit for a Donatello system. That is not a fit for the Vikings. Not only that Cam Bynum's really good. He might get paid $15 million. Like that's the guy who took Louis

scene's job. They didn't see that coming. They didn't know what they had in Josh Metellus. They didn't know what they had in Cam Bynum. So there's that. And as far as the corner goes, and I know Andrew Booth didn't work out for the Dallas Cowboys, but it was the same sort of deal. This is a off corner who read and reacts and mirrors. And then you get a, he's more of a man type of player. And then you get this system that plays zone requires super physical corners, which Andrew Booth Jr. was not. It requires usually guys that are bigger or can rally to the football, that kind of thing. Like Stephon Gilmore's big corner. And Byron Murphy is very, very smart, understands a lot of different types of defenses and can play

different positions. It just wasn't a fit. Now, whether that would have made any difference at all if Donatello had been good and he stayed, I have no idea. But I'm just making the point It just wasn't a fit. Now, whether that would have made any difference at all, if Donatello had been good and he stayed, I have no idea. But I'm just making the point that you're making, which is a lot of times the scouts and the GM are trying to get the groceries for the grocery list for the coaches, which is how you end up with Jordan Addison, which is how you end up in free agency with Van Ginkle and Cashman, because the management goes out and gets the players that the coaches want.

But I would also say that just because it was a group effort to fail in that draft, there's two other points that I should make. Number one is Kweisi Adafomenta's name is at the top of the chart. And when you are in charge, anybody who owns their own business, they know this. Anybody who works as a manager in own business, they know this. Anybody who works as a manager in any capacity, they know this. Anything that happens under your watch is on you, whether it was your fault or not. And so a horrendous, abysmal mess of a 2022 draft, no matter what the excuses, no matter who you're working with, who the defensive coordinator is, it's on you and you

have to live with those implications. Now, I think that they've done a really great job of working around the implications, which was to develop a Bynum and a Metellus. So they haven't been hurt by the Lewis scene issue. The guard position has hurt them significantly with not hitting on Ed Ingram. You imagine this line, if they hit on Ed Ingram and he was a beast, it would have been fantastic on the right side. But it didn't happen. So their workaround was not great. That was Dalton Reisner.

And that was also spending two years trying to develop a player who was never going to work out in Ed Ingram. So that was a mistake. The cornerback position, they patchworked it with Booth failing. They drafted Blackman who looks like a very good player to me in his first year. They go out and get Dwight McClothern who they need to step up. They've got cap space to paste over those holes if they want to go get a DJ read and they can make up for it. But we can never say, oh, well, it was, it was probably the

scouts. Like that, this doesn't work that way. There's one guy who makes that phone call and makes that final decision. And that's the general manager. So it go, it does go on him. The other point is that if you go back and I have done this, go just Google NFL.com draft grades, 2022. And I think it was Chad Reuter is the guy's name. Gave the Vikings an A.

I mean, it was just the first one that popped up. The point is that a lot of those prospects were considered really good players. Brian Asamoah was considered a really good prospect. So was Booth. So was seen. It just didn't work out. And that doesn't mean that they'll never draft well again. I mean,oth. So was seen. It just didn't work out. And that doesn't mean that they'll never draft well again. I mean, think about it this way. If you drafted players year

after year after year, that the draft analysts consistently gave you A's, it's probably going to work out in the long run, but they've only drafted 23 players. And so when I hear time and time again, well, they can't draft, they can't draft. It's like, do we have a sample size to say that when they've come away with, I mean mean you think about Addison has been very good they've traded for Hawkinson we have no idea what Turner or McCarthy become McCarthy is a whole franchise and O'Connell pick and we don't know what Blackman's going to become if you come away with these drafts with a difference making receiver a tight end in a trade who's a pro bowler, a starting corner who becomes above average,

that all of a sudden doesn't, and an edge rusher if he becomes a star, a starting quarterback, all of a sudden looks pretty good. But we've got to let it play out. And part of the reason that the Vikings don't have these young wave of players is that the drafting before Kweisi Adafo-Mensah wasn't great. So now it's accumulated and accumulated. But to your point, anything that happens with this roster is on the shoulders of the general manager. I'm not going to make any excuses for what happened

in the 2022 draft or point fingers at other people because he's got to make those calls. And if he's trading down, trading from 12 to 32 is too far unless you're getting a first round pick. And I think that he can learn from those drafts, but they also have so few picks. How are we going to evaluate this? It'll be still after this year, probably 30 players or less over his entire time here. And we're supposed to make a judgment on whether he can do it or not when other gms have dozens and dozens and dozens of players that they've drafted also they haven't drafted high the higher you draft the better success you're going to have go look at those draft grades look

who they usually give the best grades to it's the teams with the most picks and the highest picks which which this year they don't have either one of those things. Next question from Aaron. Is it crazy to subjectively compare, or do you mean, well, objectively compare, or subjectively, I guess, Justin Jefferson to the GOAT Jerry Rice at this point? Obviously their career statistics cannot yet compare, but I'm struck by the similarities

and the attributes that drive their success. So the thing about Jerry Rice is it's kind of like comparing any hockey player to Wayne Gretzky, where when you look at how far ahead that one player was of everybody else in their decade, you just can't make that comparison. It's sort of like if you're a music fan you listen to jimmy hendrix in the 60s and it's so far ahead of everybody else with the way he's playing guitar that prince by the time he gets around can play guitar as good as jimmy hendrix but hendrix was the one that was so far out of everybody else by the time prince gets there there's a lot of guitar players in the eighties who are really good.

I look at it the same way as this. There were things that Jerry Rice was doing in the eighties and the offense he was playing in, which helped that were so far ahead of everybody else. The route running details are mind blowing because when you watch him from the eighties or you watch him many years later, it always works. Route running always works. The hands, his sort of sneaky speed where route running play calls,

but technique can often replace pure run down the sideline type of speed. The similarities, though, the player, the drive, the way that these guys expect excellence from themselves jerry rice is legendary for that justin jefferson is legendary for that i think their attitudes are similar their professionalism is similar and the value that they bring to their team i mean look at what jefferson did with sam darnold this year when darnold was throwing his way he had something like 110 quarterback rating. And that's for his whole career. Anybody who throws in the football.

I think Jerry Rice, if you go back and there was injuries and it was, you know, Elvis Gerback or something, he's still looking good when throwing to Rice, Montana, and then Steve Young, like making any quarterback better. That is something they have similarly. And if Jefferson continues to play at this type of level, he could end up with a Larry Fitzgerald type career, who I think is probably the most comparable to Justin Jefferson is Larry Fitzgerald. Maybe Jefferson's a little more downfield, but the contested catchability, the route running, the work ethic, the guy will go throw a block whenever you need

true franchise type of player. That's my better comparison because I think Rice is just in this untouchable echelon. It's like saying is Micah Parsons, Lawrence Taylor. And the answer is, well, yes, but not at the same level of dominance over the next best player. Jefferson is either number one or two in the league, him and Jamar Chase. But there's five other guys whose teams think they have the best wide receiver in the league. Nobody thought they had the best receiver in the league in the 80s and the 90s because everybody knew it was San Francisco and Jerry Rice. So a little bit different there, but his numbers, if he keeps going,

they won't threaten Rice unless he plays until he's like 42, but they could be all time. Definitely. Next question comes from Gustafson G9 and a bunch of numbers. If Sam Darnold went from benchwarmer to pro bowler this year, why couldn't he go from pro bowl to super bowl next year? He's one year older than Jordan love. Well, I always say this with every quarterback question that I ever get, which is he could, I mean, anything you throw at me, I think that on the other side, there's a lot of people saying, yeah, but couldn't he go back to bench warmer? He could. I don't really know because it's so hard to predict year on year out. I mean, when you look at the rankings for top quarterbacks by say PFF year after year,

there's a couple of names that are going to show up every single year. For a while, it would have been Breeze and Brady and Rogers and that they're at the top. And now it's Mahomes and it's Allen and it's Jackson. And the whole rest of the league is kind of shuffling up and down depending on circumstances. Sometimes it's small samples. Sometimes it's luck of having passes intercepted or not intercepted. I mean, you look at Brock Purdy. He's a top three quarterback statistically last year.

But if you take away Brandon Ayuk, Debo Samuel's playing banged up, their offensive line doesn't have its superstar left tackle. They don't have Christian McCaffrey. And all of a sudden he's just an okay quarterback and he's not a great quarterback anymore. And who would have ever expected that? I mean, I think maybe some regression, but who would have expected him to have everybody get hurt in an entire season? That's one thing Darnold had this last year, aside from Hawkinson coming back midseason, was he had mostly health. His left tackle was out too.

Mostly health from this team. Health from the number one wide receiver in the NFL. Is it going to get better? I've looked at the schedule and the teams that they're going to play next year, and I think that's going to be harder than it was this season. There's a lot of wins that were racked up against the AFC South, but could someone make progress? Could someone improve at Sam Darnold's age with a better offensive line, with a better run game, with a better slot receiver, with a full season of TJ Hawkinson? Of course he could. Of course he could.

They could be right back at the top of the NFC North if things went their way next season and have a top 10 offense again with Sam Darnold. And if JJ McCarthy did not exist, then that's what we would be spending most of the off season talking about is how do you take Sam Darnold to that next level you're talking about where he had a really good regular season, put up a lot of stats, won some big games, let's not forget at Lambeau and against Green Bay at home, Atlanta, Arizona, some big games for him where he came through, especially late. So he has the talent to do that. He's got the coach. He's got the wide receivers if they brought him back. But I think where everyone would hesitate to say, can he take another step up? And we did see Kirk Cousins play better in year two in the offense

than year one. So all of it's plausible, but it's all about how much you could put around him is what everyone is going to say there. And then also the sample size before, which you cannot throw out. You cannot just throw out how he played before in his career. He's built up a good sample size of play, but you can't ignore some of the weaknesses that Sam Darnold has and how sometimes they can be catastrophic, as we saw in the final two weeks of the season. So those things cannot be just ignored when we're saying, well, could he take this other step after last year? And it's pretty unusual and it has happened before ask Rich Gannon,

but it's pretty unusual that someone would have a season of that caliber when they've never done it before come back and be better. Baker Mayfield did it this year. Baker Mayfield did where he had a really good breakout season last year and then was even better this year. So it's not impossible, but it's what's more likely, what's more likely with a more difficult schedule. What's more likely with teams that have a whole season of watching Darnold and picking apart his weaknesses it's more likely that he would drift back than he would go forward and if he repeats the performance then yeah you're going to the playoffs with a chance to go compete for a Super Bowl I am not a believer that those two games at the end of the year just prove the guy can't win because there's so many quarterbacks historically who have won after starting out their playoff careers badly, including a guy who's up for the hall of fame this year. And Eli Manning

did not start off his playoff career. Well, yet his, his biggest case for going to the hall of fame is how he played in those playoffs and in the super bowl. So it doesn't always work that way for everybody. It's matchups maybe nerves whatever it might be could be coaching could be blocking could be a lot of different things so what you're saying is it plausible it's plausible but if we were doing a pie chart of like what are the odds that sam darnold regresses well i would have to go at least 50 percent now how much he regresses, I don't know, but repeating the same season is hard to do. And what are the chances he's the same guy

with a harder schedule? Probably another 40, 30%. And then I would only give maybe 10 or 20 to the idea that he can actually be better, but maybe with guards, maybe with better blocking for someone who hangs onto the ball for a long time. This is in part why I haven't been terrified of the idea because I think that there are areas he can improve for next season. But when you say, when you say like, why can't he, well, he can, but it's just, we're talking about everything that is a front office decision is made on percentages and chances and odds. That's why you hire Kweisi D'Affilensa to understand these odds

down to the letter, right? And those were just my guesses, but I'm sure he has projections on odds based on other quarterbacks who have done this or whatever he might do for his process based on who they're going to play. What are the chances that he plays just as good or better? I think that maybe 50, 50 at best. It's a good question. It's a really good question because it gets right to the core of their decision.

Jay Gonzalez and some numbers. Do you think the Vikings can be serious Superbowl contenders without a true running game? Do you think it is in KOC's DNA to change his play calling? Yeah. So the running game is an interesting thing because I felt, and I've just done a little review on this throughout the last few weeks, looking back at some tape and just saying what happened there with the run game. And when they handed the ball to Aaron Jones or Cam Akers, they averaged about four and a half yards to carry.

It's not like it was horrific, but what it wasn't was explosive or dangerous or scary. And they also used Aaron Jones on occasion out of the backfield in the passing game. I would have liked to have seen more, whether it's screens or just swing passes, check downs, little things over the middle. Like there just maybe wasn't enough of that.

And when they did it, it was successful. Like they had that third down and long against the Packers. He was against the Packers where he came over the middle, gives him a little dunk underneath. He gets the first down. Same thing happened on that play against the bears where Nick Mullins came in. Aaron Jones is there. I thought part of the passing game, he could have been even more involved. But as far as without a true running game, it's hard.

I mean, the Kansas City Chiefs don't have a true running game this year, but they have Patrick Mahomes and they have a short passing game that's very dangerous. They have yards after catch guys. And so that's something that the Vikings don't really have for their wide receivers is yards after catch type of guys like Xavier Worthy who get the ball and then they can get, you know, 20, 30 more yards after a short pass. And it's also my homes again, it's moms. Like they can't really run the ball that effectively, but if they threw it 75 times, would you think that that was a wrong decision with their quarterback? That's what it comes down to really is could you win if JJ McCarthy reaches the level of a Josh Allen or Mahomes? Well, yeah, you can win if you don't have a running game doing that.

If he reaches the level of a Matt Ryan, for example, I think that's a good comp actually for his absolute ceilings, a Matt Ryan. And if he's there, you're competing in NFC championships and Super Bowls, potentially. So that's the absolute ceiling, maybe, for J.J. McCarthy, right? Well, even then, when they had his MVP season, they had a really good run game, and they had Kyle Shanahan as the coordinator.

I don't think in today's NFL, if you have a more pocket quarterback, and I know he's a playmaker, but he's not a runner. He's not going to run for 500 or 600 yards. If you have a pocket type of quarterback, an in-system type of quarterback, you need to have a run game that is dangerous and scary in order to be an elite team and compete for a Super Bowl. I do think that. I do think if you look at Philly, if you look at San Francisco, teams without elite quarterbacks who have reached the Super Bowl and go deep in the playoffs, they almost always have a

really good run game. It does go for Detroit, too, even though they haven't come through in the playoffs the last two years. But their run game has been a driving force of the offense. And as far as the DNA, yeah, I think that there's some assessment that O'Connell has to do. But something with the play calling is we always have to consider who the personnel was. And when we look at the three years of Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota and the run games,

they have interior offensive line problems. They have an older Delvin Cook, an older Aaron Jones. Those guys lost their explosiveness. So they weren't ripping off 20 and 30 yard runs, 40 yard runs. And if you look at the middle season, you had decent performance from Ty Chandler. It did not go well for Alexander Madison, who once again had no explosiveness. These players are not Saquon Barkley. They're not Derrick Henry. They're not Derrick Henry.

They're not big play threats. And that's why it's, I really want to see before I just decide Kevin O'Connell cannot run the ball. And I think he's got some clear tendencies where you can tell when they're running, where in sometimes in the press box, like this, a run a first down out of certain formations with certain personnel on the field. All right, it's going to be a run because they need Josh Oliver to be in there to block. Otherwise they don't have enough blocking because the interior really couldn't, couldn't swing it. And the other thing

is too, that you get an edge. Can you go 40 yards or do you get just 12? And I think in the last couple of years they would get 12 instead of 40 because they did not have top-notch explosive players at the running back position. So before I declare that his play calling in the run game is just bad and he can never improve it, I'd like to see a run blocking line. I'd like to see running backs who are a little more explosive. And then I think we'll get a better sense for it. I can't just, every time we evaluate a coach and we talked about play calling the other day, and every time we do this, we have to consider who's playing. And the fact that the Vikings are a well above average offense over the last three years, when they've had Sam Darnold, who was horrendous before a bunch of backups played half a season and a Kirk

cousins that had sort of worn out as welcome with the other coaching staffs. I mean, that's, that's good. Like if you, if he had Patrick Mahomes and he was 12th or if he had Josh Allen and he's 12th in offense, well then that would be bad. Right? So we always have to look at it through the lens of like, who do you have? And this is why this off season is absolutely vital for them to get a better running back or three to get better interior line who can actually

run block. If they do that and they still can't run, then we'll know something is wrong schematically. But aside from that, I mean, it does have to, it does have to depend a lot on the personnel. It's not to give them a free pass. I thought there were a lot of times where they just didn't have any creativity at all in this run game, where it was way too obvious when they were doing it out of what formations and what situations. So it's not, it has not been good and it hasn't boosted what these guys have. These running backs have, they got out of Alexander Madison less than we had seen before. They got out of alexander madison less than we had seen before they got out of delvin cook less out of aaron jones kind of the same or less than

he was the previous season so it's not to just put it all on the roster but i think that they've been if you just looked at all the run games in the league way below average in terms of what they have as far as the actual running back speed and explosiveness and the interior line. So I want to see a little bit more there before I decide. But to your original question, I do think in today's game right now, the way the game is being played, lighter defenses, crazier blitzing. I think you have to have the run game unless you are the Chiefs. Okay.

One last question here from a baseball Jesus getting toward baseball season, my friend. Oh no, I'm sorry. This is best ball Jesus. Okay. Well, best ball underdog fantasy. Hey, this sounds like a great time to remind everybody about using the code purple for underdog fantasy. Hey, that sounds, seems like a good idea. In fact, why don't I just tell you everything about a underdog fantasy while we're at it? Uh, this is a huge week for them. The big game is on the way. Look at this best ball. Jesus, you're led me right into this, uh, the big game on the way. And what they have for you is called a no sweat Sunday entry for all customers, which means everyone that will either cash in or is going to play. Anybody, anybody who decides to use this.

If you go in, use Underdog, No Sweat Sunday, everyone will either cash in or they will get their money back in bonus credit. So think about that. You go, you sign up, you use the code purple and everybody who decides to jump in on no sweat Sunday either wins or gets it back in bonus cash. That sounds like no sweat. Sounds like a no lose type of situation for the big game to play along. I've had a lot of fun doing it this year on underdog fantasy. So you should to use that code purple. You get a special pick. You get a first time deposit offer. They are just coming to you with gifts. If you drop by and give underdog fantasy a chance. So must be 18 or older terms apply concern with your play call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

So I'm guessing that best ball Jesus is curious about whether he should draft TJ Hawkinson and best ball next year. And my answer would still be yes. I mean, one, I think that JJ McCarthy is better at the underneath passing game than Sam Darnold. The middle of the field is where JJ McCarthy was really excellent in college. I know it's college, but I saw the same thing in training camp. I saw the same thing in training camp. I saw the same thing in preseason. I think he sees the field really well, which is always a thing I talk about on

the show. When somebody doesn't see it, it's dreadful. That was the biggest thing for me with McCarthy. You can teach him how to throw better. You can't teach him vision. And he's got a great vision of the middle of the field, which is where TJ Hawkinson is going to be. If Hawkinson is back, McCarthy's going to use him and he's going to use him a ton. So I think that he will bounce back in part because of who the quarterback is. If it is indeed McCarthy,

Darnold was kind of looking over him a lot down the field, hunting explosive plays, and it made Hawkinson less consistent in terms of production. And I also think coming back from an ACL is so hard. Like Adrian Peterson did it and made everybody think this is easy. Coming back in the middle of the season when you didn't have a real training camp, I've never seen a player do that and just be fine if they missed a lot of training camp. Brian O'Neill eventually at the end of last year started to fade at the end

of the season. Remember Latavius Murray in 2017, his first four or five weeks of the season were very below his standard before he got his burst back. I think Hockinson will be fine going into next year. If you draft him in best ball, my friend on underdog fantasy, you're going to be okay. So that's another fans only episode.

Appreciate all the great questions here. Remember, if you want to get on board, you can send me an email, Matthew collar at Gmail, go to Twitter slash X at Matthew collar. My DMS are open. Feel free to shoot me a note there and sign up for that newsletter, purple insider.football off season coverage, commentary, answering tons of mailbag questions over there. Uh, it's a great place to also support the show. So make sure you do that. Joining me from somewhere in New Orleans,

outside of Radio Row, is Lindsay Rhodes, Super Sports Show, former NFL Network personality. You're down there with Sam Brookhouse, who was just on the show the other day, Thomas Dimitrov. You've got the whole Super Sports crew. And we found a connection that works here with you sitting down in some hallway. So this is great. Lindsay, thank you for the effort to come on the show from the Superbowl.

Now you're giving us a very wobbly, crazy tour of carpeting there. What's going on project over here. How are you? Oh, man. Sorry. And my arm might get tired at some point of holding up the phone. So, I mean, who knows? This is going to be a journey that we're going to go on here together. But other than that, I'm well. That's good. You know, so I designed something especially for you for the show, by the way, because you guys are down there giving presentations on your new data projects, things like that. I saw Ryan Leaf was breaking down a play with AI models, things like that.

So you got a lot going on down there at the Super Bowl. So I want every answer of yours to my questions to be a number. OK, because you're working with the numbers it's a it's not going to be that hard okay so i've got a bunch of questions and you got to give me numbers and then we'll talk about the super bowl a little bit as well okay okay so of course we're in full vikings off-season mode and so i want you to tell me because now we're into the trade speculation will the vikings make a big trade i want you to tell me how many players get traded this offseason in the nfl and how many the vikings will be

involved in oh my gosh uh that's a good one okay well i mean you're not trading sam darnold so it's not a trade i'm trying to think of the different pieces there. Well, they could, they could, they could tag and trade. You're right. Ooh.

And that's interesting. Um, is that how it's going to happen? I think so. Actually. Yeah. Really? Okay.

Because I kind of feel like, and now I'm already not talking in numbers. I'm feeling your test right out of the gate. That's been a big thing down here. Everybody keeps talking about where he's going to go next year. And I'm like, I thought we were talking about tagging him. When did this pivot to a full-blown, like, it's done, bye. So getting back to that.

I think Miles gets traded, even though they're saying no. Obviously, Cooper Cuff is going to get traded. So we've got two pretty high-end ones. gets traded even though they're saying no um obviously cooper cup is going to get traded so we've got two pretty high-end ones i'm gonna add like i don't even know what that the average of trades is in an off season i'm gonna go is six way too low i was thinking six is a is a pretty good number because i think that more and more teams are looking at trades as options. It feels like this has increased as teams understand their timelines a little bit better and start to move on from older, expensive players. And players are now taking a little bit more of the onus on themselves, as we see from miles Garrett. And I also feel like as we go along and get closer to the draft,

there will be more names that pop up of like, well, this guy is not going to sign an extension or this guy wants out or whatever. Now, as far as the Vikings being involved, I think that Sam Darnold is going to get tagged and traded. Okay. So that would be one of our six. That would be one. What do you think they could get back? And who do you think could be involved if that was a trade? That is a really

good question. And I know I could get you a very good, uh, more detailed answer with the Sumer, um, stuff, but my wifi isn't working right now. So I have the capability to pull that up. I'll just have to like, you you know put it in the tweet that promotes this podcast asterisk question one i couldn't answer is this um i feel like it's probably it wouldn't be that much in a trade because so what would the tag number be the tag number is probably going to be about 41 million. And if they're going to trade them, it would have to be more than the comp pick. I would assume that they would be looking for now.

I see. I think it could be decent return because you have so many teams that are desperate for quarterbacks. Yeah. But where is the cap of a decent return? I suppose, because you, even that team,

I think is probably looking at Sam as like a short term. We, we need a quarterback right now, you know, much the same way that the Vikings did, right? Like you're kind of looking at him as a bridge, but a bridge who could be good for longer than that. Um, so the comp would be a three. Yeah. The comp would, well, it depends on how much you get paid, but I'm sure it's going to be a three. Yeah. The comp would, well, it depends on how much you get paid,

but I'm sure it's going to be a three. Yeah. So are you suggesting that it then kind of needs to be a two? Cause there's no way they're getting a one. They're not going to get a one. Right. Right. No.

So, I mean, that's kind of where we land, but does somebody want to give up a second round pick for Sam Darnold? I mean, it's an interesting conversation because of the leverage that the Vikings would have knowing full well. And I totally agree with your assessment. If you look at the number of quarterback-needy teams that are out there and then the number of quarterbacks that are available, and it is not a good year in the draft.

Even at the top of the draft, I'm just waiting for teams to pull the trigger on guys and go like, fingers crossed. I don't know, man. Like, I'm not hearing anyone who thinks even the quarterbacks at the top of the draft are can't miss, not even a little bit. They're like, yeah, high floor guys. You're going to pick a high floor guy at two or three or even one. I mean, no, thank you. I would prefer not to.

So that's another layer we could get to about Myles Garrett. And I kind of think that the Myles Garrett being traded is interesting for Cleveland in terms of offering another path to fixing their quarterback problem outside of just desperately drafting somebody that might not end up being a high-end elite franchise quarterback at number two. But with regards to Sam Darnold, I think it's an interesting thought that you can say, well, we just have an asset and somebody is going to be desperate. And will you give up a two for a quarterback that you know can step on the field right now and succeed? But then like we talked about earlier this year, how many teams do we think that need quarterbacks are teams where he could walk in and succeed because i think we all agree that he's probably a quarterback that needs a certain level of environment in order to have

success and so who that's looking for a quarterback fits that bill matthew collard why don't you answer that question for me okay i i got two teams i have the giants and i have the raiders the giants can give them malik neighbors and the raiders head coach is 74 those are the two teams that i think would be willing to do it what is what does him being 74 have anything to do with sam arnold having success with the raiders it's not they're not a long-term rebuild you're trying to win this year with Pete Carroll right uh well I actually do think I think Pete is an interesting I think the Raiders are kind of interesting this year and maybe it's just I think that the Pete Carroll will professionalize the organization right like there's been so much instability and like what are we doing in what direction are we going in

and while he's very um opposite of the Raiders, like we're going to kill you brand. I think he's a really interesting choice. And I kind of look at him as a bridge coach, right? And I think that that's probably fair because of his age. But if he comes in for a few years and he just offers some stability into the organization, Pete Carroll also somebody who from a messaging standpoint,

I've heard lots of players after time, it kind of runs stale. But Carroll, also somebody who from a messaging standpoint, I've heard lots of players after time, it kind of runs stale. But if you're looking at him as a bridge, that won't be a problem. You're going to walk into the locker room. It'll be fresh for them for a few years. And then their needs, did you want a deep Raiders dive? I'm sorry, that's what you're getting. Their needs, they're losing tons of players on defense in free agency, which kind of feels like a good thing, right? Because if you're Pete Carroll and you're coming in, you want to be able to set this defense up to look like the one that you want it to.

And so if you don't have a bunch of defensive pieces that you're like, that's not really the right guy, but we're stuck with him because of contracts and all that kind of stuff, if you can rebuild the defense right now and you're forced to because of free agency, that, that feels like actually maybe a win. And in terms of offense, we can all see them go draft a running back. And they've got Bowers, go get it, go get like a power slot wide receiver and put the guys that they have, Jacoby and Trey on the outside.

And I can kind of see them building the offense in the image of the Lions a little bit, where like their number one wide out is that slot guy plus Bowers. I think he could be a team that's fighting for a playoff spot next year. And so in that sense, I think you have talked me into the Raiders maybe doing that for Sam Darnold. And they're a good, because who are you going to get at seven? You're not going to get a quarterback at seven. No.

Go get one of those defensive pieces. Go get like an edge in this class to put on the other side of Aiden Hutchinson in some way to strengthen the defense and then get the quarterback here. I think I'm liking it. I think I'm liking it. It depends on how many draft picks they have and whether or not they feel like they have the maneuverability to give up two. Well, that would I'm liking it. I think I'm liking it. It depends on how many draft picks they have and whether or not they feel like they have the maneuverability to give up a two. Well, that would be in the future. You could even just, you know, do a future pick maybe.

Yeah. Max Crosby, you got, you got lions there. You lions yourself with the, you mean Max Crosby, but yeah, like I said, I said, I said Aiden Hutchinson because I've had so many miles, Garrett Aiden Hutchinson conversations. Yes. But thank you very much for, for picking up on that. Yes. No, but to your point, they should look at their roster as not being so far away from being fairly competitive, which I'm sure with Tom Brady getting involved and Pete Carroll, it's like, that's what you want.

You want to get back to respectability and you can't do it with Mac Jones as your quarterback. And I don't think, I do not think that Kirk Cousins is a good option for anybody at this point who's trying to win because you don't know where his body is at. I mean, there's just so few quarterback options unless Matthew Stafford becomes available than I guess maybe, but I feel like he's going to still end up with the Rams. And now as far as the giants though, the giants to me are an interesting team as well, because Brian Dable was essentially told by their ownership, like you got to win this year or sign aura, which is a pretty tough place to be in the NFC East. And similarly, they can't just draft Shadur Sanders and be like, oh yeah, we're just going to

beat the Eagles. Like this is not going to happen. And the fact that they can give Sam Darnold Malik neighbors to me would be worth them trying to mortgage a little future to save their jobs in New York. Yeah, I absolutely. And, and I think that you're right. Although the, the flip side of that argument is does a young quarterback buy you time because you can always point to the development, but if it's a young quarterback that you're not a hundred percent sure is going to hit the ground and look like Jaden Daniels, then you might want to go a different direction.

And if you bring in somebody like Sam who can competently run an offense, even if he's not like the elite of the elite, get you back to some respectability and look like you're moving in the right direction. I think that might be the best way to buy you some time. That said, the quarterback pressure rate in New York for the Giants was the sixth highest in the league this year and you need to put Sam behind the line and I don't know that that exists now I mean you can you can try and attack that um also uh without without having a roster in front of me I can't recall whether or not they would need to go uh guard or tackle in terms of priority but But like if you could go guard, if they need a guard in free agency,

my approach is kind of like spend the money on those positions that don't get that expensive. Like the go get those guys in free agency. You know, I'm this, whether this is about giants or anybody, I'm kind of more of a, like the positions that you want to draft for sure are the ones that get so

expensive. And that, of course, is quarterback and wide receiver and edge and tackle. So I think that they could potentially attack this in an interesting way, so long as they can upgrade that offensive line while also bringing in Sam Darnold. The Raiders, by the way, have the third most draft capital. So they've got tons of picks with which to work. That's just this year. Well, and maybe you spend one to get the ball rolling there.

And as far as New York goes, I think we saw Dable work really effectively when he had a good quarterback in Josh Allen. I don't think the Bills offense has ever quite been the same there since. So I think that he could do that with Sam Darnold as long as they put the offensive line in front of them. All right. Here's another number.

Funny though. If they swapped like the Vikings. So now the backup that they have there for JJ is Daniel Jones and the giants go get Sam Darnold. Like, what are we doing here? Like maybe it'll look better there. I still think that Daniel Jones is starting for somebody next year because

there's just so many teams that are lost at the plate with the quarterback position. But I mean, cause if you're the Raiders and Darnold goes to the giants, then again, like who are you get it? And I think he's going to be somebody's bridge. Even Tennessee.

If you draft cam ward, is he ready to play right away? I don't think so. So you're probably bringing, or they could be a Sam Darnold team potentially if they want to draft Abdul Carter number one. That's another team that could be called. That should have been the numbers question.

How many teams make the phone call? About Sam, I think a number. I mean, you would have to have like a list of all the teams that need quarterbacks, but I think all of the teams that need quarterbacks should at least make the phone call and see how expensive and work that into their algorithm about, you know, whether or not they should go in that direction or draft and the, you know, risk reward offsets there. Um, God, you said something that I wanted to respond to, and now I can't remember what it

was. Uh, it'll get back to it now. We'll get get back to it i'm sure it'll come up again okay how about this for a numbers question percent or the number of wins that you would expect jj mccarthy to get next year if he starts all 17 games uh i haven't seen jj mccarthy like this is like uh hey you have no idea what you're talking about here. I think if they're in a position where they're willing to do what we are talking about them doing, then obviously they must think that they have something special. I mean, what those of us on the outside have seen is the smallest of sample size in preseason, for crying out loud.

Like, a lot of people look good in preseason, which is not to say that there wasn't some, like, tells in that game that we can learn about him. But I don't know. And so the team is, but you also have some other pieces that kind of need to be answered there before you even know what he's surrounded by. Like, you know, Aaron Jones is a free agent. Cam Akers is a free agent. So what does the entire backfield look like? Both positions. I think that we've had conversations in the last few years about the running backs, and I think you could probably find someone to plug in there that would be competent enough. But, I mean, I have a lot of faith in Kevin O'Connell. And, I mean, is 10 a good number?

Do 10 wins? So this is a good number because the other day I created a fake schedule on the show and had someone pick every game. We came up with 10. See, yeah. Well, I think it takes me five minutes for my brain to like get myself to the end point, but there you go. We're landing on the same numbers. So we're doing something right. Because 14 would just be ridiculous to be able to repeat. You never

see that. And the schedule is going to be a lot harder, but the fact that he does have a mental year in an NFL building, learning how to play, he has a full training camp learning Kevin O'Connell's offense. It's not like he's starting from completely square one. It's just a little bit of a different square than you would have expected, but he did show a lot. He did show a lot of progress. And the other point is that if they have McCarthy as a starting quarterback, that means they're putting a lot more money into that offensive line.

And I think there are a lot of guards and centers that are available in free agency. Stack up the line, you figure out the backfield, your head coaches found ways to get a lot out of Nick Mullins and Josh Dobbs and maximize Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold. I think there's a lot of reason to believe that whatever the best case scenario is for a quarterback with the Vikings, you're probably going to get it. Yeah. And I do think that you have a really interesting group of people making those decisions these days. We've been talking here on Media Row to a lot of different people about the data and how you incorporate it in the context that's still needed. But what has surprised me just this morning, Thomas Dimitrov and I talked to Mike Smith, who was the longtime Falcons coach with Thomas and Brian Billick.

So these are two coaches who haven't coached in a minute and coached for a long time. And I think people on the outside might be like, those are the old school, you know, gruff, like I'm going to go with my gut. You tell me about data, you know, I'll tell you when I'm going to go for it on fourth down. And they all, I mean, maybe because they were talking to us, but I don't think so. They brought up the data. They brought up all the advancements in information that's available to coaches now and how exciting it is to be a coach right now because of how much more information you have that helps you do your job. And so I thought that that was fascinating that, you know, it seems like when we hop into a social media conversation, it's like either nerds or real football people and the two can't coexist and they just butt heads.

And I don't think that inside NFL offices or, you know, front offices. And I don't think that that's actually the case. I think most of them are turning over. And so they understand the ways that the two should marry together to help kind of come up with one thought on the back end. And I think that your head coach and clearly, obviously, your general manager is manager is very adapted all of this type of stuff and so I think that they will make probably smart decisions in all of these ways and and I think that they've established that we should have a little bit of faith that that the moves that they'll make will at least be well thought out no I think that's totally true that they've bought themselves a lot of belief with 14 wins and two years ago, a 13 win season. And they were on their way to another playoff birth in 2023,

when Kirk cousins tore the Achilles. And I have wondered about this from like a data perspective for the longest time, all the studies sort of told you go with the young rookie quarterback contract, then you can spend in free agency and so forth. But then there was sort of a conflicting idea that free agency wasn't always the best way to build a team. Then the Vikings did it last year by identifying a lot of great free agents this year. What do you think of the free agent class?

Because right now I look at a lot of guys and I go, I would take one of those. I'd take one of those. I'd take one. I'll give me the DT. Give me the guard. Give me the, but of course there's going to at a lot of guys and I go, I would take one of those. I'd take one of those. I'd take one. Give me the DT. Give me the guard. But, of course, there's going to be a lot of competition. Wide receiver.

I know you guys aren't necessarily looking there, but it's an interesting year in that sense with some higher-end guys that are going to hit the market. Yeah, and it always kind of goes in concert with what the draft looks like, because you would prefer, like we talked about in many cases, to go get somebody cheaply if you can and get them on long-term deals. Like Edge Class, for instance, is a positional value position, but it's also a very deep class. So the group in Mobile, I think that that's one of the strongest units in this year's draft class that people are going to be talking about quite a bit between now and then. Down in Mobile, Jim Nagy said before it started that that was the toughest group to decide the invite, like where the cut line was, and that the cut line was somewhere around a fourth round grade. So that's kind of wild at an event like that.

Usually you have people who kind of, you know, you've got a lot of guys that are going to be like late day three guys, not a lot, but you know, enough that it's sort of a balance. And so if you're looking at that type of cut light in Mobile, I think that's fascinating. Tight ends, good draft class. And so I think, and also I think that that's sort of a position that's being incorporated more and more, right? Like, don't you think that that's a position that we've seen the teams that have had success a lot of times have had a really good tight end?

And then talk about the maneuverability from a cap standpoint that a really good tight end versus, in the, you know, late first round, a really elite tight end who's a good pass catcher, those numbers after year five are going to look wildly different than if you draft the next Jamar Chase, you know? So if you can kind of fill out your passing offense and sort of recalibrate which player should be your number one or two, then I think that that's an interesting thing to consider also moving forward. Yeah, the way that the draft class plays out for the Vikings is a little unfortunate because they have a pick in the back end of the first round and then not a whole lot else. They've traded a lot of their draft picks picks so they're going to have to really be

reliant on going into the free agent market and looking at these top free agents oh man four picks have fun yeah four picks yeah it's not a great scene but if they do move on from darnold then they'll have a lot of money to spend in free agency i also also look around and go, well, so did the Lions, surprisingly, the Bears, Washington. It feels like for maybe eight to 10 free agents, there's going to be so much competition this year. Yeah. Yeah. I think that that's probably an accurate statement. And also specifically those guys that are in positions where teams don't feel like there's a lot of depth in the draft and or high-end guys that they can go get. I think that the conversation about Darnold is a really interesting one. I'm glad you got my synapses firing eventually

about that because of that very thing because we have just talked ad nauseum for the last couple of weeks. I mean, you ask who QB three is all, all week in mobile. It was who's QB three. Cause neither QB one or two, assuming consensus rankings those guys weren't there. And so, Hey, we've got guys here who could timeout. Remind me to ask Joe Milton. Joe Milton was the thing that earlier I was like, I wanted to say ask Joe Milton. Joe Milton was the thing that earlier I was like, I wanted to say something. Joe Milton, another trade possibility in this conversation. If no one there was no consensus down in Mobile about who the QB three was. And frankly, it wasn't a good week for the quarterbacks.

And, you know, you see kind of conflicting information depending on who you follow on social media and what they thought. But the gist that I took away was if there is no consensus and no one was down there just like lighting it up, like Joe Flacco back in the day who earned a name. I mean, he really put himself on the map and helped his draft stock so much, throwing the ball over the yard in the rain, right? There were no stories like that with the quarterback position this year. And Jalen Milrow even is a guy who has a different skill set than you can really even showcase in practices where they're blowing the ball dead.

They're whistling it as soon as it looks like there's a body on you so you can't see whether somebody who has that type of skill set, running backs also, whether or not they even can break a tackle. So for them, it's really tape. You know, we'll wait to the combine, and then we'll see a narrative shift once the measurables start coming in and they look – those RAS scores, all that kind of stuff that we get geeked out about at combine. But, yeah, I would think that it's a really interesting year,

and it's a good year to be a free agent if you are playing a position, a wide receiver. I don't think it's as good a year, a free agent if you are playing a position wide receiver. I don't think it's as good a year, you know, as as it has been maybe for the last few years. And, you know, what's funny about that, and I'm sorry, I'm rambling so much here. What's funny about that to me is that two years ago specifically, I remember all the draft analysts saying that it was a down year for wide receivers. And I remember somebody saying that the top wide receivers were a little bit more like low wide receiver two, high end wide receiver three type guys. And that really stuck in my head. And so when it came time to fantasy draft, I was like, I don't think I want those guys.

If that's how you're describing them, even though they went high in the first round or in the first round at all like is that exciting to draft a wide receiver three but then Jackson Smith and Jigba has turned out to be a very good wide receiver for the Seahawks maybe the most consistent one that they have on that team and that's wild because I thought that he actually went to a team that looked like they needed a wide receiver three and then for him to emerge as the wide receiver one so I kind of wonder if now that they're talking about it saying this year's not as good as the last two years and I'm like I remember you talking about it two years ago and thinking that wasn't very good so I think wide receiver is a position too that's become a beauties in the eye of the beholder and very much like the Rams do. Like I want you to do three things that I'm going to ask you to do.

These three things are what I need you to be very good at. And so I'm going to find somebody who's very good at these three things, as opposed to the old school scouting eval thing, being like, how good are you at everything? Are you the best? Okay. Then who's the next best. And then who's the next best. And we're just going to go down the line like that. Now it's like, I don't need somebody who's good in this way if that doesn't fit my system i want you to be good at this specific thing and i think that uh teams and the rams are a good example have gotten

wise to that and that makes figuring out what the draft and free agency looks like free agency less so but the draft um for wide receivers it makes it a far more interesting project to try and figure out where they're going to land. Well, in the draft from a couple of years ago, that's Zay Flowers, that's Jordan Addison, it's Tank Dell. So they have turned out to be some pretty solid players at those positions. I know you got to run and run all the way back to the media room. I assume unless you're doing all your interviews in this hall

because that might be the only internet that works for you. This is where I live now, Matthew. Yeah. Here's one more number I want you to answer. How many Super Bowls will Patrick Mahomes end his career with? Dude, that's such a good one, right? That is such a good one because, truth be told, we already know where this is going.

He is absolutely, by the end end going to be in the goat conversation we are having a well i mean just gear up for all of the nfl network and espn topic bars that uh and first take debates that are like uh brady or mahomes you know and then have those conversations all day long that is a great question because will he get more than seven? Because he has to get close to be in the conversation, right? But I don't think he necessarily even has to top. I don't know that you have to actually get to seven and or more, but it sure is looking like he's going to have the capability to do that.

And if he wins this year with this team, that people have a hard time describing why they're good i mean then good night irene like nobody even needs to play these games like we can talk about free agency and whatever try your best the chiefs are gonna win it anyway so um i'm gonna i'm gonna go i'm gonna go with seven i'm gonna go with seven i think he matches i think he matches well if he wins this Well, if he wins this one, yeah, if he wins this one, seven is very realistic. I was going to go with five.

I think five, I think that's a good one too, because they can actually build a better team in the next couple of years. They did this all without Rishi rice. Who's probably their best wide receiver. So, you know, there's a,

yeah, there's a lot there and how much longer Andy Reed coaches might matter too. That's, that's a lot there. And how much longer Andy Reid coaches might matter too. That's actually, that's the thing. Because it's become really glaringly obvious this year for the reasons that you just mentioned without some of those pieces and the fact that they're still able to win all these games in ways where people are like,

I mean, from all the advanced metrics standpoint, we look at it like, I mean, they're like in the nine to 15 range. You know, like they're not bad at anything mean, they're like in the 9 to 15 range, you know, like they're not bad at anything, but they're also not elite at anything. Even Patrick Mahomes' RAI metrics that use tracking data, we have him ranked as the 27th best all-in-one metric this year. And you know, and that's actually another good example of like the numbers always need context. Everything needs context because you look at those numbers and you know that they

do not tell a story that he was the 27th best quarterback in the NFL this year. And by the way, it's like all of them, all of the different advanced things that we track, he was pretty much like mid, mid, like low mid, you know, in that range. And you just know that there's context that's needed there and that the ways in which he can always convert a third down or keeps you in third and shorts, like now we need a next layer of how to, how to measure that. But this was about Andy Reid and Andy Reid has made it clear. Andy Reid and Spaggs take one of them out of the equation. And it would be fascinating to see what kind of effect that has on the chiefs, because the ways in which,

I mean, they were dialing up things against the bills that we hadn't seen them do all year long. That's wild. They're so good. And I think that that's kind of the X factor in this game that I keep going back to. I think the Eagles are a better team and I am,

I'm going with my gut that I think that the chiefs win anyway. Lindsay Rhodes, former NFL network now, Sumer sports show. Love the content you guys are putting out. And I appreciate the extra effort of, I think you went up an escalator. You did a swim move on a security guard to find a spot to do this.

So I really appreciate all the extra effort. Actually, the connection turned out great. You sounded good. You look good. So thanks so much. The next time we talk, I'm sure you'll be back in the home studio, but I really appreciate the effort there

from the Super Bowl. Thanks, Lindsay. Anything for you, Matthew. And next time I'll have all of the numbers and data right in front of me because my Wi-Fi will work. Sounds good. All right.

Enjoy the rest of your week. Thank you. sounds good all right enjoy the rest of your week thank you