Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Reaction to Kyle Rudolph's release and what happens now with Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr

Episode Date: March 2, 2021

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My first reaction was, this is the end of Throw It To Kyle. RIP Throw It To Kyle. Anybody who listened to the show back when I was with 1500 knew that was part of it. In fact, Sam Bradford once appeared on the show and talked about Throw It to Kyle. And I brought it up numerous times last year, the efficiency of throwing the ball to Kyle Rudolph, where Kirk Cousins over the last three seasons completed over 80% of the passes he threw to Rudolph. He had 11 touchdowns in three years, quarterback ratings of 113, 139.5 in 2019, 116 in 2020 in just 35 targets.

And when push came to shove, the biggest moment of the Kirk Cousins era overtime in New Orleans, he throws the ball to Kyle Rudolph and he makes a great catch in the back of the end zone. But that kind of became all that Kyle Rudolph was for the Vikings over the last two years, was just the guy who was hanging around in the end zone that maybe if things went wrong, Kirk Cousins would throw him the ball and he would go up and get it. Only 39 catches in 2019, only 28 catches in 12 games last year, and even in Cousins' first year, 64 catches on 76 targets for Rudolph those are good

numbers for his career but when you consider that the Vikings threw over 600 times he was still left out of the party at times during that season and his yards per reception always pretty solid right kind of standard for a tight end 9.9 9.4. They didn't change from previously in his career. This year it was almost 12 yards of reception. More than half of his catches turned into first downs. He had one drop in the Kirk Cousins era. Think about that, one drop for Kyle Rudolph in the entire time that he played with Kirk Cousins. And yet, he was more or less eliminated from the offense

and Cousins never seemed to trust him. Now my theory on this is that it's a combination of different things. That Kirk Cousins does not throw to receivers that are covered and Kyle Rudolph is not a separation tight end. He's not going to run by a linebacker and get wide open, and they don't design plays for that to happen either. They are aware that Kyle Rudolph is not fast, so they're not setting up play actions and things like that to go down the field. They're running him mostly underneath and that kind of thing. So, you know, it's not a situation where he was really designed to fit with Kirk Cousins outside of being a safety blanket,

but a lot of times Cousins didn't even use them as a safety blanket the way that someone like Sam Bradford or Case Keenum did or Teddy Bridgewater. Like when things went wrong for those guys, they tend to look for him underneath. But there were many times where Kirk Cousins took sacks on plays where he maybe could have thrown it to Kyle Rudolph and it just didn't happen and so I think part of it was fundamental to the quarterback and then there's the offensive system that focused so much these last two years on the run it took targets away from everybody I mean Stefan Diggs forced his way out because he couldn't get targets

in this offense. And you can say right or wrong, but that's just the reality that he went somewhere else and got a lot more throws his way. Kyle Rudolph probably felt the same thing over the last two years. And he even verbalized that in a podcast where he called himself a swing tackle in a podcast with Ben Lieber that he did earlier this offseason and and so it was clear that he was frustrated just by this turn so much toward running that he felt like he wasn't much a part of the passing game and of course the numbers back that up as well so just the lack of targets for everybody to go around is part of it. And then you have Irv Smith. After week five, I ran the numbers here, pro football focused, he was their fourth best receiver as a tight end in the NFL after week five. You remember Irv Smith's slow start.

But Irv Smith, and there was some injuries mixed in there, but he played well enough over the last two years to give the Vikings confidence to put him on the field a lot. And when you have two tight ends on the field, an offense that likes to look down the field, a tight end that has the capability to run routes down the field in Irv Smith, they were splitting their tight end shares. I mean, when you add the two together over the last two years, you kind of have one tight end.

But when instead of being the clear-cut runaway number one tight end, nobody else is close like it was in 2017, 2016, 2015, he was now in a situation where he was asked to split up the targets. So even if he was playing the exact same way as he always played, he was sharing a lot of that with Irv Smith Jr. And as the season went along, I think you got the feeling that Irv Smith Jr. can play and that they want him to be tight end one. And it was interesting that Kyle Rudolph, I remember Mike Zimmer saying that Kyle Rudolph wanted to return, and then he didn't, or he called him a fast healer or something like that,

and then he didn't over the final four games. And I wondered, is this a way to see what Irv Smith can do as tight end one? I don't know. That was never put out there or anything like that but I ran through my mind that what a nice showcase for Irv Smith to show the Vikings that he can be their number one tight end and that's the next step here is how do they replace Kyle Rudolph well in many positions as you'll hear Sam and I talk about there isn't a direct replacement and they have to go to free agency they have to go to free agency. They have to go to the draft.

But in this situation, there is. And it's not only Irv Smith, but Tyler Conklin caught 15 passes down the stretch when Kyle Rudolph was out. He showed that he can clearly play as a receiving tight end too. And so now they can use Brandon Dillon as their number three. They can draft a guy late and try to start developing him as a backup. They can sign somebody to be a blocking specific tight end. But in this case, this is the scenario where you've had a couple of years to develop a player

and then you hand it off to him. It goes ideally for them to be able to give it to Irv Smith Jr. And now he's going to have a lot of pressure going into next year, but he's had two seasons to get his feet wet, to fill out a role, and even a whole quarter of the season to play that tight end number one role and be able to succeed in doing so. So I think that must have played a role in this. Now when it comes to the salary cap, let's talk about that for a second.

The Vikings get $5 million. They'll pay $4.3 million dead cap, and they'll have some dead cap, a little bit of dead cap held over to the next two seasons. And you have to ask, was it a good idea to extend Kyle Rudolph? Did it make sense at the time? And how does it look in hindsight? In hindsight, I would say since he caught the ball in New Orleans, it was worth it. He made a game-changing play.

He had a good 2019 season where he caught six touchdowns. And that was the season that that deal was really for. It was always set up to be a 2019-2020 kind of deal, and then they could move on. That's how the Vikings do their contracts. So from that perspective, I don't look at it and say, wow, what a big mistake they made extending Rudolph. They still are now left with a little bit of dead cap, but it's not so much that it kills them. And I think we all expected Rudolph to be a bigger part of the offense at the time he signed, and we did not know what was going to happen with Irv Smith.

You never know when you draft someone. Are they going to be the guy that can fill in for the next guy? We've thought that about other positions, and that hasn't exactly worked out. So the last thing, I don't know how, like, there's two other things that need to be mentioned. The Vikings put out statements on Kyle Rudolph. You can see them at purpleinsider.substack.com. And they were very, very pleasant.

And you don't see that all the time when a player gets released. I think Rudolph does have a lot of respect. And, of course, in the community, he was a finals for Walter Payton Man of the Year three times, and I had a chance to be in the room when they announced him as a Walter Payton Man of the Year finalist and interview him about that, myself and other media members, and I just was taken aback at how eloquently he talks about how important the community is to him and his work. And he had his kids there and his wife there, Jordan. And, I mean, it was really something to see Kyle talk about that beyond just, you know,

football and things like that where he's always been very available to the media. But to hear him talk about his work in the community and see how emotional he was in doing so. And the Vikings put together an incredible video of him reading letters from kids at the Children's Hospital that he's helped. I mean, all that stuff is exemplary. And I think that's really what it is. Set an example for all the players who are here now, all the younger players who have come in. This is how you do it if you want

to be a leader in the community as well. So he deserves a ton of credit for that. Now I'll give you the one little thing that I thought was interesting about statements and things that are said upon the exit. He wrote a big long thing for the Players' Tribune and he thanked a lot of people. He had one line in there that said, I want to thank Mike Zimmer. Just one line. No mention of Kirk Cousins.

I'm not saying that's a thing. I'm not saying it's not a thing. I'm just saying that that happened, that there was no mention of Kirk Cousins. Now, Kirk Cousins tweeted it out, but, you know, I don't know. That's what we have to do, right? In 2021, read between the lines. But, you know, I don't know. That's what we have to do, right, in 2021, read between the lines.

But Stefan Diggs, similarly, mentioned Cousins, who I know for a fact that they did not have a problem with each other. That was not the reason that Diggs left. But Diggs left out Zimmer. So this is our new journalism, I guess, is reading everybody's Players' Tribune articles and seeing who got left off and who got mentioned. And the thing is, Rudolph did mention Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater,

and even Matt Castle. Not Kirk Cousins, though. Interesting. Or maybe it's not. I don't know. Last thought is, if you are the Buffalo Bills, if you're the San Francisco 49ers, you're looking for a second tight end. Maybe he would go there to help George Kittle kind of be that number two guy for another offense that loves to run big personnel. There's a number of teams that could use Kyle Rudolph.

I mean, if you're him, I think you choose ring chasing over money at this point because he's gotten a couple of contracts should be pretty set there so now you look for who can you win with and it will be interesting to see if kyle rudolph ends up reunited with stefan diggs i think that that is a possibility all right let's get into my conversation with sam really fun conversation where we dive deep into the Daniil Hunter situation, the Anthony Barr situation, even ask a question about Trey Lance that gets mixed in there. So let's get to that. There's so many different ways that the offseason could go, and we've kind of started to lay them out as we approach free agency here, I want to throw out some possible things that could happen with the Vikings

and then yell, what then, Sam? So I'm going to present a couple of situations. Okay, you're going to yell it. Yeah. Loudly. I'm going to scream it, and then I'll have to edit the audio to make it so it's not maxed out. Okay? Let me start with this.

We've talked about every possible Kirk Cousins scenario. So let's just put that one aside, but let's start with another big name player here that we've sort of dipped our toe in the discussion, but haven't really spent a huge amount of time on, which is the Neil Hunter. If the Neil Hunter comes to the Vikings and says, look, highest paid defensive end, or walk, what then, Sam?

I think you got to win the staring contest. I don't think you can cave on that. think that the leverage that Daniil has gets sort of undone by him missing a year having surgery on his neck and the depressed cap like you are putting your team in such a bind um and and like we just talked about people getting paid I want people get paid. I don't want players to get dragged along by their organizations, but this is not the year, I don't think, where Daniel Hunter has a lot of leverage. I think he's got three years left on his deal. I would be more than receptive if he shows that he's fine,

has a great season, double-digit sacks, and makes that request spring of 2022, I'm good with that. I think you're probably giving a little too much power to the player. You're setting maybe a dangerous precedent if you allow yourself to get coaxed into that off a season-ending injury. I think it's going to be interesting to see what they do with Anthony Barr as well. I mean, the scuttlebutt is that Barr doesn't want to take any pay cuts either. Who will win that steering contest? That might even influence what happens with the Neil Hunter. But I think the Vikings need to sort of wait this one out. I don't think they're in a position where

they've already got to extend Brian O'Neill. I don't think they can afford to add more to the books unless there's a very, very subtle way where Rob Brzezinski can manipulate the books to increase his pay and somehow get the cap number down. I think Brad Spielberger recommended guaranteeing the last two years of his deal on your podcast. Maybe that's a realistic in-between without really affecting the numbers too much. I don't think you can give him a significant raise.

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He realizes that his contract is not good. The situation for him from the beginning was very much like Stefan Diggs, who, by the way, got more money when he got to Buffalo. They reworked his deal to reward him a little bit or say, nice to meet you, Stefan. Here's a little more cash for you, my friend. And the Vikings, they signed Daniel Hunter to that deal that was one of the most team friendly deals in the entire NFL. And it's always one of those deals where at the time that feels great, but he'll notice.

He's going to notice that everyone around the league is talking about how team-friendly his deal is. He's going to look at that guaranteed money and go, oh, okay, that guaranteed money is gone, which means if this little neck injury turns out to be a serious problem down the road, that they can just cut me and I get nothing, zero. So usually there is money guaranteed for injury, but only if it's a career ending injury. So if you come back and you play, then it's only like what we thought Alex Smith or Teddy Bridgewater was. So there's like the guarantees, there's the guarantee for injury and that's it. And with him, that's all gone. His guarantees are gone. So he's just playing on this deal. I think it's after this year, his guarantees are gone.

So yeah, if you came to him and said, we can guarantee the rest of your salary, but he comes back and says, no, no, no, no, no. I don't just want that. I want to be number one. I want to be above Joey Bosa, way up at the very top in average annual value for my contract, or I walk because I believe I'm the best defensive end in the league. I don't think they have any other choice but to say, okay, we're going to have to take trade offers, and we're going to have to send you to Jacksonville, or we're going to have to send you to, I don't know, does Cleveland have money? Like there's only a couple teams this year who have money. So that would really limit the amount of teams that you could trade him to. And you might not, I mean, you're probably talking a first round pick, but you might not get anything more than that because it's a player that you have to pay a lot. It's a player that's coming off of an injury.

And even for his new team, he'd be taking up a lot of cap space. I think that they're in a really tricky position with him especially because so the other part of this question for what now Sam is which I haven't yelled yet what now Sam so um very nice yeah what happens then on the field if they have to move Daniel Hunter so you get a first round pick that nice. But now you have no pass rushing defensive linemen, zero, not a single one. That, that to me is a pretty huge swing from what you have to do on the off season. And you don't get that much money back from Daniel Hunter. You only get like 5 million bucks this year to spend. Yeah. The, the, the one aspect of this that's sort of in Hunter's back pocket is how bad they looked without him last year.

They even brought in, allegedly, someone to fill his shoes in, Yannick Ngakwe, who was nowhere near as impactful. Wasn't as good a pass rusher, was much, much worse against the run. Team leader in sacks, just saying. Team leader in sacks. You'll always have that that'll be a great trivia about 10 years from now to like just remember that that happened that really happened um let's let's just drag the listeners memories on the numbers here so hunters cap hit this year is in the 17 million range the average annual value of joey bosa the top paid defensive end is 27 million per year he signed a five-year 135 million dollar deal miles garrett isn't far behind so we're talking

about a 10 million dollar per year raise the defensive ends matthew are approaching quarterback money yeah they're getting they're at that point where they're closing in on $30 million. Now, the problem is that you probably limit your suitors a bit if you do sort of strong-arm the team into a trade. And for Daniil Hunter, it means that there are fewer teams that you could end up with, and a lot of the candidates aren't all that appealing, like Jacksonville or – Get that second-round pick back. Washington. Actually, Washington with Chase Young and Daniel Hunter, that'd be fantastic.

But I have a hard time believing they'd only get a one. Do you think it would just be a one? I feel a one and at least one other like somewhat high pick i would think maybe not i could be wrong well the thing is that you know we saw jamal adams go for two twos and we saw khalil mac go for two twos but neither one of those guys were coming off of a very serious neck injury and yeah okay you can send them the medical information but we're still talking about something that could impact how good he's going to be when he's coming back Jamal Adams and Khalil Mack were coming off unbelievable seasons so their value was at its absolute peak that's why I mean

maybe you get a similar thing for Diggs a first and a fourth something like that that's kind of how I would look at it I also think too that, that when you look at precedent, one of the problems is if precedent blew up in the other team's face, then that's not really good for you. And Jamal Adams did. He blew up in Seattle's face. They traded for one player thinking he was going to be the difference and their defense was still bad. And even with Chicago, they're now in a tough cap situation and yeah they've made the playoffs more times than the Vikings since they got Khalil Mack but at the same time you know what is a defensive end meant to the big picture with them when really the quarterback was the issue so yeah I've had a tough time seeing the rest of the league looking at this situation

saying oh yes this is this is a great idea this year, I just think teams are going to hoard draft picks a little more this year. Just with the uncertainty of even how strong the draft class is, I think it's very hard. So I would guess first and a fourth to somebody else. But your suitors are very limited. Well, the trade deadline last year could have been sort of an indicator for how closely teams are hoarding those draft picks. Because remember, there was no trade market, even though it looked like the Vikings would sell,

maybe they would have sold if teams had been more willing to part with their picks and nobody was, and nobody got traded across the whole league. So that, that could support your point. And let me answer your original question. Cause I think I, I circled around it. What do you do at defensive end? Yeah. If you lose to Neil Hunter, let's just look at a stable. It's empty. If audio Dennebel probably gets re-signed to that tender, which I think is more likely than not to happen, but I wasn't convinced that it was going to happen. DJ Wanham then becomes sort of your shining star, which I like DJ Wanham, the pet cat.

I don't know if he's going to be a Daniil Hunter. I think he's got plenty of athleticism and you can draw the parallels. He's not on the same trajectory. He's just, he's not. No one is. No one is. You can't compare a fourth round pick who's raw to Daniil Hunter it just doesn't work that way um and then beyond that what Eddie Yarbrough is your next in line they don't so so then it becomes all the more

incumbent on I think getting a defensive and pass rusher in the first round um that that might mean okay we wanted to try to trade back and, and acquire more picks, but no, we have to do this now. We can't risk losing our guy. So if it means you got to stay put and take quitty pay, so be it. But I think you need to come out of that first round with your pass rusher so that you don't sink to the third round. Remember, there's no second round pick at this point.

And, um, and suddenly and suddenly uh although if you traded hunter you might have first right so there is that you probably have two first and you end up in the very same situation you were with digs except for you got super stupid insanely lucky with the philadelphia eagles picking a guy who didn't even catch any passes in college over justin jefferson is it likely to happen again? There are a lot of good edge rushers in this draft, but a lot of them also have that, hey, he's going to take a couple of years. Remember, Rashawn Gary was like this with the Packers, and by year three,

he was starting to develop and make a difference for them. Even Daniil Hunter in his first year, I think he had six sacks, and he showed the flashes for sure, but he was not the developed Daniil Hunter really until his first year. I think he had six sacks and he showed the flashes for sure, but he was not the developed Daniel Hunter really until his second year. So if you're looking for that immediate replacement, I think they would have to start saying, all right, who's in free agency that has some rotational potential here. And you have to do better than Anthony Zettel that they signed last year in free agency and that just became nothing yeah or or Eddie Arbro was brought in at the end of the previous year with some hope that there might be something there in breaking news there wasn't uh so they would have to try to

really wait till the very end and scrape the bottom of the barrel or try to swing that first round pick for somebody else's edge rusher but who's giving them away not many teams are because they know the value of pressure in the nfl so this is if they can't get it worked out though it's like long story short if they can't get it worked out with hunter yikes then you are in a very difficult position to try and even improve from where you were and michael pierce won't do that michael pierce is a guy who's going to stuff the run he He might get two or three sacks in a season, but he's going to play 600 snaps. He's not a guy who's going to come in and make a huge difference. That's where it becomes really tricky.

Let me move on to another one, though. If Anthony Barr – so here's the thing about the restructure thing with Anthony Barr. It's usually written into these contracts that if they want to change base salary to bonus, there's no choice. So remember, and I don't blame them for doing this, but they made it kind of seem like Eric Hendricks was a hero. Like, oh man, that unselfish Eric Hendricks. He had no choice. It's in the contract. Most contracts have that as sort of a backdoor out for the team.

And the player is usually fine with it because they get their money anyway, and so are the agent. So it's likely that that's in there. I don't know for sure. There's not sources. But I would guess they can do that. They can change that money regardless. I think a restructure means like totally redoing the contract,

and that's what Anthony Barr would be against. But let's just say that they feel like, whoops, kind of messed up on that one with Anthony Barr. We're just going to move on and cut him and gain that $7 million. What now, Sam? I think the $7 million know, capology sessions that I do with myself late on Friday and Saturday nights, I figured that Eric Wilson probably is going to make about what Nick Kwiatkowski made last free agency period. I'm thinking about three years, $21 million, just based on his previous production, his age, his position. So $7 million, do the math. I mean, if you save $7, you can give it to Eric Wilson,

and then you have a lesser version of Anthony Barr at a little bit of a discount. I think Eric Wilson is an exciting player. He does not represent the same type of physical threat that Anthony Barr does as a tackler, as a blitzer, as, you know, I mean, he obviously got more comfortable with the green dot duties last year, but I don't think he has the same type of chemistry with Eric Kendricks. I don't think teams account for him in the same way. I think that a lot of Anthony Barr's best traits are actually intangible, which kind of hurts him at the same way. I think that a lot of Anthony Barr's best traits are actually intangible, which kind of hurts him at the negotiating table because he can't point to some of the sexy stats that a lot of guys would like to point to.

And he hasn't really ever become the blitzing threat that people thought he would be. A lot of his sacks get schemed. It's not like he's a phenomenal pass rusher. He just runs through holes that were conveniently opened up for him, probably by the greatest defensive tackle of all time, Shemar Stephan. So if Anthony Barr gets cut, I think you probably reinvest in your guy, Eric Wilson.

I imagine that that's the logical move because then you're stuck having to use a pick on a linebacker. You don't want to have to do that. That's been the one kind of area of strength on this team. They haven't had to think about linebacker really at all in a long time. They don't want to have to add that to the mix. So I think you absolutely go for the continuity there. You bring in Wilson, who's going to be reasonably priced, and just hope that he joins you.

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And see if his contract was average annual $7 million a year, it could probably be like three in the first year in terms of a cap. So you would save money and be able to bring in extra players just because I've seen that bounced around like, Hey, you're going to have to pay for Wilson. So it doesn't make any sense, but the way that they would set it up, it would, and you'll save more money with Barr down the road more than just this year. We always focus on like what the next year is and don't consider that even with Stefan Diggs, they're saving a bunch of money this year from trading away Stefan Diggs last year. So just to kind of clear that up. Yeah, I think that that has to be the answer because they know what they have with Wilson as opposed to bringing in somebody

else. This is a guy that they've developed for several years to be able to handle that position but again it kind of comes back to for me the drafting has been not what they needed it to be that's the best way I could put it they needed it to be oh look this development project turned into a great player and replaced Everson Griffin. Good for you, Jalen Holmes. Well, that hasn't become the case. Or if Adia Denebo or even Steven Weatherly was a rotational player, and they could bring him back as a rotational player, but he didn't turn into a, wow, we drafted Everson Griffin in the fourth, and boom, he's a superstar. Or wow, we drafted Daniil Hunter in third, and boom, he's a superstar. Or, wow, we drafted Daniil Hunter in third, and boom, he's a superstar.

That same thing, yes, you found a nice linebacker in Eric Wilson, but if he isn't going to sign with you because someone else offers him more money and you've gotten rid of Anthony Barr, you don't have Troy Dye to just hand the job to. Troy Dye was way in over his head last year. You wouldn't even begin to think of him as a starter who was going to play all those snaps you have uh cam smith was their fifth round development guy even before the heart issue he was not on a track to be somebody who was going to become a starter eventually like they've taken many many shots in the draft at things like this and when they pan out you turn out to be the 2017 vikings and you've got a complete roster and it's amazing when they pan out you turn out to be the 2017 Vikings and you've got a complete

roster and it's amazing when they don't pan out you're left going gosh can we even do that and the answer for me with Anthony Barr has been no you probably can't you probably can't do that you probably can't just move on from Anthony Barr because like you said I mean he does have a lot of intangible elements but even just one that I can pinpoint is he can stuff gaps and that's going to be it sounds sort of like oh really but then watch Elvin Kamara run for what was it six touchdowns like yeah well that's what happens when you can't stuff gaps at all with your linebackers and your defensive line and so you don't want teams running all over you again I think they do that with Eric Wilson in there.

Michael Pierce might help a little bit with that, but they're still not going to be dominant at that three-technique position either. Both of these guys, Hunter and Barr, we sort of casually mention them. Well, we'll see what happens with this guy. We'll see what happens with the other guy. But when you sort of get down to the brass tacks of it, if either one of them is gone, you go, how are you going to be better? I'm not seeing it.

I'm not seeing how you're going to be a better defense than you were last year if either one of those guys is gone. Go back and watch the tape of a couple games last year where the run defense just got savaged. Colts, number one, the game where Barr got hurt. They had a very raw Troy Dye and Ryan Connolly for for a couple plays as well trying to stop like Jonathan Taylor and Naheem Hines and just getting mauled by by any blocker um go watch the Saints game in week 16 where you know allegedly Troy Troy Dye might have um developed a little bit but they had I think he was hurt that game and they had Blake Lynch and Hardy Nickerson

and Eric Wilson as their linebackers and they were just getting bulldozed I mean the depth there isn't fantastic and I know some of their run stopping linebackers were the ones that got hurt like Ben Gideon was the run stuffer um Cameron Smith more of a run-stopping linebackers were the ones that got hurt, like Ben Gideon was the run-stuffer. Cameron Smith, more of a run-stuffer. And what they were left with were a bunch of undersized, kind of speedy, probably better in pass coverage, but not very physical kind of players like Troy Dye. And that's just entrusting way too much, I think,

with a player of that caliber. So can Eric Kendricks do it all? I don't think so. I mean, I know it's a two-linebacker league now, so that's one out of your two is still an all-pro. But the reason the Vikings' defense was so good for so long is because they had that tandem in the middle there where they could kind of read each other's thoughts and they could, they could sniff stuff out on third down. Um, if you lose that piece, uh, you lose a bunch of stability, I think. So especially if you lose Wilson as well, because I mean, he,

he at least knows what he's doing and can make plays. He intercepts passes. He's got good hands. He can, uh, once in a while blitz. I think he's still a poor man's Anthony Barr, but I think the alternative Troy Dye is like a poor man's Eric Wilson. Right. That's a guy I'm not sure can play in the NFL yet. Based on his performance last year, he had PFF grades are 1 out of 100. Usually if you're around 70, you're an average player.

If you're around 85, 90, you're an elite player. If you're Aaron Donald, you're like 95.'re an average player if you're around 85 90 you're an elite player if you're aaron donald you're like 95 so just put that in context troy dies 28 was what he graded last year so eric kendricks is usually in the 85 to 95 range because he's an elite player 28 which is basically every time you're out there you're just getting crushed um so that he could improve for sure. We've seen that happen of guys who look like they're in over their head, but you can't rely on that. And that leads me to kind of the last thing I want to – well, I have one more what now.

But answer this question first. Do you think that they're – I don't mean to lead you on this because I've expressed this opinion on the show before, but process versus luck when it comes to the drafting that has left some of these cupboards empty that we're talking about. How much is, well, it just didn't work out. You just didn't find your, you know, Daniel Hunter and how many people ever do.

Like you said, that's an outlier. And how much is, well, what were you thinking with that guy anyway? How do you break those into percentages? Well, speaking of luck, check out my story today at Purple Insider where the Vikings unlucky in 2020. Just a shameless plug there. I think they got somewhat lucky in that a lot of things aligned all at once like the free agents that they signed in 2014 were pretty much hits even guys like justin tratto and tom johnson were productive

yeah i mean they were they were hitting on the big fish like linval joseph and the little fish and then they they combine that with a superb 2015 draft that's an outlier draft though you're never gonna do that again probably in this regime um that is like the perfect game that you throw if you're a gm and hey in the six drafts since, they haven't come close to that. Maybe 2020 turns into something similar if Cleveland and Dantzler and Jefferson, like, all pan out. Maybe that you can somewhat compare them, but that's a historically good draft. So that set you up with, what, four, like, Pro Bowl-caliber starters on rookie deals? That's why you had the kind of continuity that you did so um did it take good evaluation to draft those guys yes but you also you know you

made draft picks or you found guys in positions you don't normally which tells me that okay you got a little bit lucky you know you you you didn't hit on KJ Osborne as a fifth round receiver. That could have been Stefan Diggs. He could have been just an, an afterthought. He could have been a footnote in that draft. And he turned out to be one of the best receivers in football. So I think we're realizing that there more and more that while the process was good, like you had good coaching your defensive coaching staff was was very cohesive andre patterson and jerry gray and all that um they were dealt a pretty good hand with a couple years of savvy contracts and draft picks

um but now that they have to kind of duplicate that, we're realizing, oh, wait. So if you don't have like a historically good draft, it's harder. It's harder to develop these people. Okay. That's what last year was. Last year was the gut check. We can't just snap our fingers and rebuild the team like we did the first time. To do it again, you know, that's the test of your skill. And I think there's plenty of luck in there.

I really do. Not all luck, not 100%, but I think that I think a fair share of the pie chart, maybe 63%. 63. Yeah, I'll go like a probably like a 60-40 share because I do think that their process maybe changed, or maybe they believed in some things that weren't really going to work again. And that's my issue is drafting guys who didn't sack anybody in college because they're lanky doesn't mean they'll become Daniil Hunter or even they'll become Steven Weatherly, who's an average rotational player. A lot of times that means they won't become anything at all.

But then James Lynch, too, is the – like you draft James Lynch because he had sacks rotational player a lot of times that means they won't become anything at all right but then james lynch too is the like you draft james lynch because he had sacks or kenny willikas and and then they don't really do anything either so yeah yeah and right and when we're talking about fourth fifth sixth round you know i mean that's tough because most of those guys don't work out to begin with i would say if you're drafting James Lynch and you're immediately changing him positions, are you learning from your mistakes of the past? Because almost every guy you try to change positions, you end up pushing them back, you know, because it doesn't work out.

So there is some of it to be that too. I mean, even with drafting a run blocking center, when there's a left tackle on the board, there's receivers on the board, knowing that Stefan Diggs wasn't super happy and all that sort of thing. Like there is Mike Hughes, total bad luck. There's nothing you can do about that. You probably picked a decent player. I have no idea. He never plays. But you couldn't predict he was going to tear an ACL, hurt his neck twice. That's just, that's total randomness. Now trading down a bunch of times to draft a linebacker, or not a linebacker, a running back, or drafting run-stuffing linebackers who are probably special teamers. I mean, those things, like, you're not really giving yourself

a high ceiling on some of these things. If Alexander Madison hits his maximum Alexander Madison, like, what is he? It's probably what he is now right there's probably not anything more than just being a good really good number two that you love to have in your organization but that really they don't even use him like that they use him as like dalvin's hurt oh no we have to go to alexander they don't even like try to make him part of the game right right exactly and and you drafted a guy who as as much as I think Alexander Madison is good, he ran like a 4-7. I mean, that's just not – you're sealing on some of these moves.

They drafted – intern Paul pointed this out to me, no longer an intern, that – and he was paid for this take – that Jaleel Johnson had like a, you know, combine that would point to an XFL player. And you think, what happened there? You know, I hope he was paid a lot for that point. That's a good point. It is a good point. He has just when you look up his athletic profile, you're like, what, what happened there?

Aren't you guys usually the team that takes these high, you know, so I think you could kind of go pick by pick and say, all right, well, some of these were processed. And some of it was you tried to do the same thing again, and it didn't work. All right, last what now? You and I discussed this on a short video we made for YouTube. We're doing these little Purple Insider extras. If you want to go to YouTube, type in Purple Insider and find them, by the way. But Trey Lance, if he's there at 14. What now, Sam?

As I said in the Purple Insider Extra, I think you strongly entertain it for the following reasons. Number one, that probably means that, like, four other quarterbacks went first. And for whatever reason, someone valued Mac Jones more, or Justin Field, Zach Wilson, obviously Trevor Lawrence. But it means that you might be getting a great gift falling in your lap. And the only reason for that that I can think of is because he didn't play last year, that he would lose some value,

and that other guys played and did well enough like Mac Jones that they jumped over him on team's boards but the grass could be very green if you draft Trey Lantz just because he he is kind of an unknown a little bit in the sense that there's only one year of film um that could be dangerous but it also could mean a ton of untapped potential like look at what he showed in one year think about what he could do with with a little bit more seasoning and i know your counterpoint to this is that you probably don't play him right away you probably don't take him with that intent but um he would i think create a ton of excitement for this franchise. That's kind of in the doldrums right now. And who knows, it might even be a catalyst for like the best version of Kirk Cousins

that we've seen because we'd get to see Kirk Cousins operate with his potential replacement in the shadows. We get to see how he would respond to that. And then Lance gets one year, maybe even two years of development and he's ready to take over. And that's going to have to happen at some point. If you, if, as long as you hang on to cousins and if Trey Lance falls in your lap, a Minnesota product, that's tough to resist for me. And if, if, if you're sitting at 14 and that comes to you, I think that's tough to ignore.

Let me circle back because I was thinking about just the previous question to just add this little addendum that these last two draft classes, the door is not shut. So when we're talking about how some of the draft classes went awry, I think we can say that, you know, 2016 did, 2017 did, outside of Brian O'Neill, 2018, and that's what hurt them last year. But there are players that are still in a position to take big steps and make huge impacts in the future that I don't want to say like, oh, wow, they haven't drafted at all in these last number of years because the door's not shut. I just wanted to add that. On the matter of Trey Lance, because of the quarterback contract, I would say yes to it, to drafting him. Because I don't believe you draft for this year. I believe you draft for two years, three years down the road many times. And especially with quarterbacks, it's usually two if you have plans to sit the guy,

which I think Trey Lance is going to sit no matter where he goes for at least a year. I think you have to very highly entertain it as you put because of just you don't know what's going to happen with Kirk Cousins you don't know if he wants to sign a contract extension again you don't know if you can trade him for another quarterback you don't know I mean really anything about where this is going but you do know that the contract he's on is untenable for 2022 that's what you do know so you set yourself up with a potential option and somebody with a really high ceiling that is hard to pass up even though you do need all these other things but that is the biggest question in the entire organization over the next two years is just what happens with this quarterback.

Do they sign him to an extension? Do they trade him next offseason? Doesn't seem like it's happening now. Do they let it play out and just pay him $45 million on the cap next year or something? I mean, that is a possibility. It seems really unlikely, but it's a possibility. So with those questions up in the air, you have to address that if you have a chance. I don't think they'll have a chance. I think that Trey Lance is going to go before, you know, Mac Jones. It's going to be the four quarterbacks that are gone off the board for the Vikings. And then that will set up brilliantly for the Vikings because that means that, you know, you're getting basically a top 10 player that's not a quarterback, and that's really good for you. But if it's there i mean think about

this too there's another part of this is and i'm not saying that teams should take their own curses too seriously but if you trade out of the trey lance pick and you drop back and you know oh look we got our second rounder and we move down to 25th or whatever and then he becomes a superstar how you feel it right i mean it doesn't have to be some of that there's got to be a little percentage of like man you know the bills got josh allen eventually that worked out okay for them but they traded out of my homes they'd have a freaking ring right now if they hadn't traded out of the mahomes pick do you want to be the team that trades out of the mahomes pick well you know how provincial

minnesotans are i mean not only if you pass up a quarterback but if you pass up a minnesota and people basically treat ndsu like an extension of minnesota like that's an all minnesota pick look at the way that minnesotans sort of like clung to Carson Wentz and like people were becoming Eagles fans because they were so excited about Carson Wentz um being this like Super Bowl winning quarterback even though he didn't really win the Super Bowl um so yeah and also what if the what if a trade comes up in the summer and you have Trey Lance in your back pocket and Shanahan is still pushing to get Cousins on the team wants to make the Garoppolo for Cousins swap um for 2022 picks or whatever I mean it's a it's a ludicrous scenario but if that came up and you have Trey Lance on the roster

you might be more receptive to it because I don't think you'd be married to Garoppolo you could he could be your your Trey Lance bridge. And if he struggles at all, and it's like week nine, you don't feel that bad making the move because you can just cut Garoppolo loose whenever you need to. So I think that would liberate this team almost to really pursue those options a little more aggressively. I'll even add this for additional value that is not a reason to do it necessarily. But let's say Kirk Cousins has had unbelievable health for a quarterback. Usually quarterbacks, if they start five, six years in a row, they'll get some injuries.

You'll see Kirk Cousins is the only quarterback to start five years in a row and throw at least 25 touchdowns. Like, yeah, I mean, because in part he stayed healthy that entire time. Let's say he gets hurt midway through the season and trey lance comes in and wins you a couple football games not only do you get a look at trey lance but also you've got a better backup quarterback than you have now nobody defends sean manion's position on this team harder than i do because they don't spend any money on it and he's a capable backup for a game or two but if you were to lose cousins let's

say he just falls on a finger wrong or hits a helmet like Jared Goff hits a helmet following through and breaks a finger and he's out for four games well I mean you got a guy with a high ceiling that you could get a look at and potentially win you three or four of those games if he's ready to go and if he's pretty good and if he adapts really quickly to the NFL game I think immediately he's a better backup quarterback than Sean Mannion just because of his physical capabilities and if he were to win you a game two games what's what's your wins above replacement for a rookie defensive end in comparison I mean probably not much what is it for a quarterback who has to come in and play a couple of games if he succeeds? It's a lot. So anyway, I just sort of like add that on as a little like bullet point to reasons to do it. The reason not to do it though, just to address that, would be look, your coach and

your general manager are trying to win and you need someone who can help you right now. You can't rush the passer. You can't protect your passer and you only have two wide receivers to throw to you could use some other weapons like they're they're in a position to have to need a guy to make an impact like Justin Jefferson did last year they need that on next year's roster for all the reasons we laid out with Anthony Barr and Daniel Hunter that you just don't have these fallback options for guys who have been developing so they really need this first round pick to step right in well if things go amiss in March that probably changes how they view April right if Anthony Barr like weasels his way out and you're forced to cut him. If Riley Reif stares you down and says, absolutely not. I'm not taking one dime less than $13.95 million.

And then if Daniil Hunter asks, like a lot of bad things can happen in March. Yeah. If they happen. And if the Vikings are forced into an involuntary rebuild or sort of pick, you know, amassing picks kind of phase, well, then you may as well take your shot on the quarterback. And then because 2021, your odds go down to win the Super Bowl this year, so then you start building for the future.

And then I think you're compelled less to find that week one impact player if you've already had a bloodletting in March, which sets you up for April. Like that's why free agency comes first is because the dominoes have to fall so you know what your needs are. Let's see what happens in March and see if this team is actually equipped to win this year. We don't know that yet. This is a great point. Just about the next month, that so much can change about the future of this team over the next month. And we said that last year, and it did. A bunch of players left. Guys got traded who were stars here I mean it just there was a lot that happened and I see

it the same way that over the next 30 days or so that's really going to shape where they go and the draft always is kind of going to shape where you go but you don't have a ton of control over it who stays who goes how much cap space you can create and how many players who are decent to good you can convince to come here and fill out these spots that have been left open by the guys that they missed on in the draft so all right well i mean i did yelling uh we talked about internships i mean a lot happened here sam this was this was a lot yeah i uh i liked the the the what now sam what not sam i think this needs to be a staple maybe we can get we can get that like on a recording and then have a button bar kind of thing that

we just drop in during shows or i could just scream it at total random and see what the neighbors think um so i mean you are you are recording on a lawn chair in your backyard. People don't realize that. It looked it actually from your video. It looks like that. Yes, I am. I have created my own office in my what once was a three season porch, but is now a full like with heat office room. But it is like not soundproof and fairly close to the neighbor's house on my right. So if I'm screaming, what now, Sam, over and over and over again, um, that, you know, they might call the authorities. So we'll see what happens, but code word, code word. Oh yes. Back to the score. Sometimes, sometimes you just got to scream at somebody anyway.

All right. So thanks. Thanks for your time, Sam. This was really fun and we will get together for a Friday round table. Well, Friday, we'll talk to you then.

Let's do that. See you, Matthew.