Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Receiver Jauan Jennings visits the Vikings (Hour 2)

Episode Date: April 29, 2026

Matthew Coller breaks down former 49ers veteran wide receiver Jauan Jennings visiting the Vikings. Plus a look at the other free agent wide receivers who might fit if he doesn't sign. And... why the Vikings got such bad draft grades. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode of Purple Insider is presented by Fandul. A sauce bucket. If they sign Jennings to a multi-year deal, does that signal they're not keen on committing to Addison long-term? I don't think so. I would look at it more like, oh, they just really love Joanne Jennings and they want three really good wide receivers and wide receiver depth because Addison has been banged up. And if it was a two-year deal, then that takes you through when Addison will be on his

year and they'll be able to decide. But it might be, if it was longer than that, then it would almost be strange. Be like, what a four-year deal? What? You know, that would be crazy. So I don't see it being any more than one or two. And if it was more than one or two, it would probably be a fake third year or a fake fourth year that we see all the time in the NFL.

But two years makes a ton of sense. I don't think from Jennings standpoint, but I think from the Viking standpoint, because you have this trio pretty well locked in. and then you go forward into the future with them. One year makes the most sense for Jennings side, because if you sign now, you're probably taking less. And what about next year when teams get very antsy

to look for wide receivers in free agency and you've got 48 catches for the Minnesota Vikings or whatever it might be. So I don't know that he will sign for more than a single year. If he does sign multi-year, I would guess it's only really two. but I mean, I don't think that the timelines really quite match up. There might be a world where if Jennings signed a two-year contract and then this year Addison has more issues and let's not mess around about last year either.

He was not at the same level. It was not all JJ McCarthy's fault that he didn't play at the same level. Like his drops were not what we have come to expect from Jordan Edison. So if his production was still down and he was dropping. footballs and struggling and then having off-field issues, then yeah, you'd love to have Jennings over a multi-year deal. I'd just be surprised if that actually happened. Joker, who are the offensive players, they said they missed out in the first round,

tackles they liked. I think Sadiq, they're willing to wait until 2028 with Banks, tight end similarly long development. I would have guessed Kenyon Sadiq would have been the guy because he just is such a physical freak. and if they were willing to draft Caleb Banks based on his physical freakishness, you could kind of say, well, they might have been willing to take him as well. Offensive tackle possibly might depend on who the guy is, but I don't know.

I don't know if that was ever a serious consideration or not. I mean, they ended up drafting Caleb Tiernan, so obviously that position was a serious consideration. But they could have taken Monroe Freeling if they wanted to at 18. and that would have been a very obvious signal that they were not thinking of Brian O'Neill long term. Sadiq just makes the most sense, though, unless one of the receivers that they liked got there. Maybe Jordan Tyson was the guy that they would have been willing to go for. But I think that you're probably barking up the right tree there.

I mean, I don't know. And they won't tell anybody. But Sadiq and Tyson are the ones that make the most sense to me that, hey, if those guys fall, then we've got to reconsider what our ultimate plan is. here because those guys are top 10 talents. And it seemed like the, not the order, but the talent level of the top offensive players was very clearly set in stone.

Like Tate goes and Tyson goes. Like the league had decided these are the top offensive players, the top 12 to 14 players in the league. And then, you know, are in the draft. And then it's all, you know, who knows after that. So maybe they thought it's possible that Sadiq could drop. to them. And when he didn't, okay, now you're going to take the defensive tackle. But, you know,

you can only really guess. But the fact that they weren't afraid of a development project does tell you, yeah, that maybe Sadiq could have been the guy. Chris says, guess Ty Felton isn't going to be it. Well, it's just a visit for one. So, you know, Joanne Jennings hasn't signed yet. If he does, then I think we'll talk a little bit more about that. But I also think if you're in the Vikings position and you're in a spot where if someone gets hurt for three weeks and you have to have someone who's never really played before take on Justin Jefferson's role or Jordan Addison's role, that would be a lot to ask. I know that we want answers on these guys right away, but what was it?

I mean, I think it was like year three before Jalen Naylor had a breakout season. Oftentimes, guys who are in the back end of the third round, they need to be developed. So getting a guy who's a veteran player in there and then having Felton continue to develop and I'm sure he would get a chance to play. Somebody gets banged up. That's a better position for him than just a, you are one turn ankle away from playing 65 snaps or something. I don't think that that's where they really want to be with Ty Felton because he is a project. He didn't have a ton of playing time before his final year in college where he lit it up. he's still learning to be a route runner.

He's still learning to get in out of his breaks, which I thought last year was a little bit slower than you'd like for someone with his speed and still learning the offense, which is complicated for receivers. We've talked about that before. So I feel like with draft picks, we just always want to kind of jump right away on guys who are later rounders of, well, this guy didn't work out. This guy's a bus. This guy's a bad pick.

But sometimes I think I told this story on draft night about how when I did a 53, when Flores got hired, I had Josh Mattelis being cut. I was just like, this guy, you know, I don't know. What does he do? And then he turns out to be a huge player for them. So some guys just click at the right point and we'll have to see with Ty Felton. It's just a visit. Christopher says if they signed Jennings with the extra cap space we saved on Grenard,

do you think that makes overall better considering the expanded role for Turner? And then Jennings is such an upgrade at wide receiver three. I don't think that you are overall better, but I think that the, what is the, like the scale starts to become pretty much even or closer to even. Because on one hand, you don't have Jonathan Grenard anymore. But cap space used on a wide receiver, a third round selection for 2027, Jacoby Thomas, who, you know, I don't know, we'll see. It's probably going to be a special teamer right away, but might end up on the field. then it starts, it starts to get a little more even, right?

And wide receiver being such a valuable position that it is, being able to use that on him. And as you said, the path for Dallas Turner, that brings up that side too. It becomes a much more even trade when you start to add up and stack up and not to mention all the cap space for next year, which is an enormous number. I think it's 12 and then 22 for next year. I mean, that's a huge number. So, yeah, I do think that. I do think that if they're able to sign Joanne Jennings and then it's it's not it's like Jonathan Grenard for Jacoby Thomas possibly Joanne Jennings, whoever they sign next year

in free agency and whatever Dallas Turner does like that's a lot closer to even and that's why they did it is it's a lot closer to even than it seems on the outside. Ethan Felton wasn't given much of a chance at receiver last year. Right. I mean, they were healthy. I mean, that was the thing is they were just healthy. And Felton wasn't asked to go on the field a whole heck of a lot. But when he did get in, he did a lot of nice things in special teams, which I know just doesn't excite anyone. But it matters to the coaches. It matters to the evaluation of, hey, can you take your role seriously? Can you defeat blockers and guys who are getting up in your face and all that?

And he showed that he could. So I think that there's a, I think that they, like where Ty Felton is at, but it's also a veteran team that is competing right now to try to win a division. So bring in Jennings on a one-year deal and see where you're at with Felton down the road. This is how you kind of have to handle guys who are these mid-round or day three type of picks unless they totally surprise you like Stefan Diggs. But even Stefan Diggs, fifth round draft pick, who turned out to be a superstar, was not active his first couple of weeks.

Like, even that took some time. And he didn't really break out as a superstar until the following season. So, yeah, I mean, with all these guys, we try to try to give them time to see what's really there and then kind of assess it. Training camp this year should, when we do our list of most interesting players of training camp, obviously, Kyler Murray is going to be at the top. But I'll have Ty Felton on that list. the mat tracker Colston Loveland took a half of a year to become a highly impactful player

he did but I think that he was much more refined you know coming out of college but if you're making the point with that comment that you never really know then okay yeah I can buy that I would be very interested I don't know if it's ever been studied or looked at but I'd be very interested in seeing just in terms of the scouting reports when And there's the word like project used versus the word NFL ready used. And how often those things actually turn out to be true? Because there are plenty of prospects who are presented as safe NFL ready. And then they get to the league and they can't play.

And there's plenty who are presented as projects who are good right away. I tend to think that with someone like Caleb Banks or if it had been Kenyon Sadeek, both of those guys will need some time in the NFL to be refined. before they could take the next step. But that's my point about the study where it takes a lot of guys two to three years before we really have a good sense for it. Antoine likes you like Debo. Well, I don't have any problem with Debo Samuel as far as if they wanted to do it.

Okay, well, that's certainly interesting because that's a yards after catch guy. He's powerful. But he is not a route runner in any way. He's like, get him the football and have him run. through people and he's had so many injuries. I just didn't see the effectiveness of last year. I like what Debo was three years ago or four years ago. I don't know that I love what Debo Samuel is right now.

And in this system, you have to run routes. I just feel like he's a non-starter for the Vikings because, and yeah, I think Tyree Kill is going to miss a lot of the season. But that's also a non-starter for me too. Like these guys just don't fit really at all. Debo Samuel, if you bring him in, you have to design stuff. specifically for him and he can't fill in for Addison or Jefferson because he just is not a route runner. That's why Jennings makes so much sense to me. Norse Force signing Jennings has

nothing to do with Addison's situation. Well, I think it does probably not. I think you're right there unless it's a multi-year contract. Then that might raise the eyebrow. You might go, oh, oh, a multi-year deal, huh? Like, are you kind of hedging a little bit? for the future. But here's where you're right, Norse Force, is that the Vikings have shown zero sign of ever thinking any other way about Jordan Addison other than we love him. And we want to keep him and he's awesome.

That's how they've approached this completely with Jordan Addison, whether it's the off-field handling stuff or just the way they've talked about him or picking up his fifth-year option or anything else like that. they have not ever approached this in a way that acts like they're really concerned about Jordan Addison. Now, is that being a little too cavalier about it, considering the off-field stuff? I tend to think so. I tend to think with the way that they've talked about the discipline following some of the off-field issues was a little bit shruggy, and I'm not sure it's deserved to be that way. But it's clear that they don't think

that this is a long-term issue, or at least that's the way they've talked. They've never talked about Jordan Addison and any of the off-field stuff as if they think, oh, man, this is something we're really scared about, except for maybe the one time Quasi said he's 99% of the time, he's great, and then the other 1% of the time. They're like, that doesn't sound great because we need 100% of the time. But we'll see with that. I think when it comes to Addison, this year will dictate a little bit of how you approach it next year.

Yeah, you picked up the fifth year option, but could you consider trading him, kind of like Pittsburgh did with George Pickens. I know that he wasn't on a fifth year option, but they traded him in the last year of his contract, or are you talking about an extension? And there's been a lot of kind of he was young and excuses, everything else.

But I think behind the scenes, when he's in the building, they love everything they see from him. And everything I've ever heard about Addison is that he's a really hard worker. He's a really good teammate that guys like being around him and everything else. And it's just, right? Like, it's just the off the field stuff. Tom says today's draft grades mean nothing. If banks pans out, the draft grade will be way higher. Well, of course. So with the draft grades, I mean, what do you want these people to do? They work for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks on draft

content. And some of them work all year around like Lance Zeerline from NFL.com. That guy's grinding one player after the next. Dane Bruegler, Daniel Jeremiah, they're watching tape, they're doing all this stuff. And then, oh, no, but you can't have an opinion. Because I've seen that thrown out there. Draft grades are stupid. You don't know for three years.

Well, that's true. We don't know for three years. But also, what are we supposed to do? Sit quietly for three years, like that SpongeBob meme where he's just like sitting there with the coffee or whatever. Like, that's not, or with his hands folded. I don't remember what is in front of him. But we're not going to do that.

It's football, right? We're going to react and those people have the credibility to react. We just need to keep in mind that those grades are not predictive. So even though that's their snap reaction, that's all it is. It's not like against the law to have a reaction that ultimately might not turn out to be accurate. That goes for anything. That goes for watching a game and saying, oh man, this Vikings team can't make the playoffs. They're just, they're not good enough against the run.

in like week four. And by week 17, they might be. But what are we not supposed to have that reaction if they get run over? Or like, if you're a draft analyst and you spent your entire time breaking down these players, making your big boards, doing your rankings, mock drafting. And then the Vikings do a draft that's very different from what you expected. And they reach versus your expectation. Then you're not going to give them a good grade.

But I don't think any of the draft graders think, oh, I'm, well, some of them might. But like I'm, I'm right, you know, you know, like I'm right. Matt says, why would the Vikings get the benefit of the doubt? Well, I'm not really sure what you mean by that in terms of the draft. I mean, I understand that their recent draft record is not good. So I guess that's what you're getting at is teams that have drafted well, maybe get a little bit of extra, oh, they must know what they're doing kind of stuff. But I also think from a Vikings perspective, one, it wasn't the general manager who had a lot of bad drafts.

Number two, this team does usually get from the overall national media benefit of the doubt of being a good organization because they have been in the long term. And that's also not how it's supposed to work. Like, you're supposed to be graded on your draft individually. Did these picks make sense for you? Are these good players? Did you help your franchise significantly? I think if we were grading, I would try to do it on a little bit of a different scale that baked in like a range of outcomes for your draft.

Like if it works, if it doesn't, for each player. And Banks's outcomes are wide. And maybe Dominique oranges are very thin. I would actually say that's the only thin thing about him is that his range of outcomes is either he's fine or pretty darn good at being a nose tackle. But he's not going to play more than 500 snaps in a year. So those are the only outcomes for Dominique Orange. For Caleb Banks, he could become a superstar.

He could become a decent player who rotates in and plays 600 snaps and is very good, but is not great. He could become a guy that they feel like they have to put on the field more than they should because he was their high draft pick. He could become a complete bust who never gets out there. I mean, it's all over the place with him. So I look at these drafts more of range of outcomes. and I think also we're trying to evaluate thought process.

And the thought process, you can really put yourself inside Kevin O'Connell, Brian Flores' heads and understand every pick here. It doesn't take rocket science to do it. But I think that everyone who evaluates drafts and grades drafts does not do it that way. They put themselves more in the GM seat of playing the draft economics game. Did you stockpile picks? did you take guys that were falling down the board for no reason? Did you pick, you know, at the, not the position of need,

but like the highest percentage chance of success type of guy. Like, that's how it's done a little bit more. And not so much, hey, does Jake Gold Day look like he is going to eventually be the next Andrew Van Ginkle? I just don't know that that's the way a lot of people look at it when they bake into their grades. But nobody should get benefit of the doubt. I mean, the highest graded teams were the jets and the Raiders and the Browns and the Giants

because those teams are garbage and they have tons of high draft picks. Every year it works that way. So the Vikings, you know, not having tons of high draft picks. And then the one that they took reached versus consensus boards and even just like opinions across the board on Caleb Banks. So of course they weren't going to get good grades. But I don't think it should be reputation. If it was reputation based, then Cleveland wouldn't have the highest grades.

That's for sure. Uh, joker, we disobeyed the mocks, automatic bad grades. No one wants to think about this irrelevant team longer than replace, uh, Harrison Smith, and there's no reason they should. Well, I think there's one thing you're right about there is that if you disobey the mocks, then yes, you will get a worse grade. And that's what I was talking about about the graders of like, they believe in themselves too.

So they're going to say, hey, I, I didn't grade that player where they took him. So they're wrong and not me. which is just like, I don't know, maybe. And then both of you have an equal chance, I guess, because the draft is pretty random. But in terms of your other part, that's right that the Vikings have hovered in a place where they have peaked up into relevancy with Sam Darnold in 2024 and in 2022.

And almost the minute that they got above ground of relevancy, it was like the whack-a-mole game, pow, they got smacked right back down. and then the next year they missed the playoffs and so forth. So you're right. I think there was a lot of laziness there with that opinion. I never really got it. And I guess if they had taken Thenem and I would have been like, oh, well, okay.

But that was one every night. I was like, am I like taking crazy pills here? I just don't see this. I just don't see a free safety who weighs 200 pounds and runs a 4-3, being anything like Harrison Smith. I also think that Harrison Smith's role is damn near impossible to replace. So you're not just drafting a guy to Phil Harrison Smith's shoes.

So it was laziness, but I mean, yeah, relevancy might matter to that or it might also be just that like the draft is a lot of group think. And it's like, well, everyone else is just giving them phenom in. So that must be happening. And there were there were draft analysts who are full of it who were saying, oh, yeah, they love him and they whatever else. Like, that doesn't mean they're taking them. they don't tell you for the hundredth year in a row the NFL teams did not tell you who they were going to draft big old shocker right but what are the insiders and the analysts supposed to do all day when we have weeks and weeks and weeks leading up to the draft which is like I don't know

beat the bushes for any information they can get even if it's bad information you know put them out there Chris killed me when they passed on McNeil Warren in the second I think that in their view this is a bit of a guess, but just from my analysis of this draft and the safeties in this draft, there were a lot of guys who were just as good in terms of being prospects as McNeill Warren, like trade in Stoakes is a guy. You know, the guy they end up taking Jacoby Thomas. They like the fit, had a bunch of interceptions. But there were five, six, seven guys who were taken and mocked in the second and third

round and McNeil Warren, somebody, I think it was a Joker there on draft night who called him Mith Neil Warren. That's what it felt like to me. I just never understood where this was coming from that that guy was going to be like the 15th overall pick. He might be a really good player, but safeties like him just don't get drafted that high. I think that he would have been a good fit for what the Vikings need and what they do.

But maybe they just felt like Gold Day was a little bit harder to replace type of player. in terms of an Andrew van ginkle prototype. And also, even if he doesn't become van ginkle, can he be Blake Cashman? Because Cashman, his contract is up after this. Tom, that's funny.

Power rings of shades of Reggie White. Yeah. I don't know, man. Yeah, that might be shooting a little bit high. But he's very powerful. And I think what I like the most about the Caleb Banks pick is that he doesn't, have to be a guy who lines up right between the center and the guard every time,

that he might be even better moved out toward the four, the five technique and line up over the tackle. And then what are you supposed to do when the overhang player is Van Ginkle or Dallas Turner and those guys are out there. And if you're an offensive tackle, but you have Caleb freaking banks at 6'6 and 330 over you. And then another guy, it's like, how do they do this that has lightning quickness? how do they block them, right?

And I like, I like that look, like how hard that could be. The three, four, I've always enjoyed it. It just kind of sort of disappeared because nobody was playing three, four anymore. They were just playing all nickel. But now Brian Flores and some other teams are kind of bringing it back. And that gives you some options that Pittsburgh is utilized, that the Patriots utilized with big players like this. Ailes says they got the poorer grades they deserved.

Well, they got the poor grades deserved is a tough one because they got the poor grades that usually are assigned to teams that do it this way. I would frame it like that. Usually the teams that do not draft the players in the positions they're expected to draft them, which is right, you know, versus history. History says that the draft analysis world knows what reaches are. it also says they don't know what foot injuries are necessarily so there's also that but when it comes to let's just assume that him being ranked like 51st by daniel jeremiah is not all foot injury that it's also the get off the production like is he quick enough for that biggest size all the time like maybe sometimes when he times the snap correctly but if he doesn't then he just get taken out of

the play there's too many times guys get into his chest there's two many plays where it just looks like he is not a factor. And then there's other ones that blow your mind. Players like that don't usually get graded that high in the draft analysis universe. If you have, just for example, if you had 25 catches as a wide receiver, this was like Jalen Rager. And I don't mean to pick a guy who was a bust. But Jalen Rager was like this. His highlight reel, his explosion, his numbers were phenomenal. But he didn't have a lot of production. and people saw him as more of a second round pick. So when he was taken by the Eagles,

like Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman laughed at them. But deserved is hard to say because we won't know what this draft ends up turning out to be for the Vikings for really at least a year. We'll have a sense for it, but probably two years. So I don't know that, I mean, deserved might mean, well, let me think about it this way when you say deserved.

Because that's an interesting word, like in terms of grading their draft. reaching deserves a lower grade probably so you might think you're right there non-premium positions like a fullback might be also thrown in there and a safety like there's two picks back to back that are a full back and a safety so you could say that a backup offensive lineman that's not something that's going to help you right away i think the biggest thing though for why it's not being graded well is because it goes so far off of what people thought it was going to be.

So if you go to each position, there was, and I remember looking at Dane Brugler, seven round mock, Chad Reuters, seventh round mock from NFL.com. And I remember putting them up on the screen and saying like, hey, this would be pretty good, right? You know, like, hey, if they did this exactly the way they said it. And they would have like a center, a wide receiver, Mel Kiper had them running back in the second, which always seemed a little rich. But I don't know that many people, and even a lot of.

linebacker. I think that Gold Day is more of an outside linebacker, but if he ends up becoming just an inside linebacker, that's another positional value full paw, I guess, is that's not an edge rusher that was maybe expected. People tossed out there, like, could they go Caldric Fall? Could they go corner and they don't go corner until the fifth round? So it was so much different than what the expectation was that I think that that's why they ended up getting the grades that they did and why a lot of Vikings fans on draft. night were pretty, you know, pretty skeptical. Jack, I don't know about Thomas, just my opinion, Jacoby Thomas.

Yeah, when I look at Jacobi Thomas, the thing that would raise some concerns is that he was on the older side and had one year of production with a great defense. They were awesome at every level. They got players drafted at every level, like their defensive line had multiple first round draft picks. Kianti Scott was another, what, fourth round draft pick. I mean, that was, they went to the national championship. It was a stack team.

So did he kind of just benefit from playing on a stack team? Or on the other side of it, was he able to show what he could do? And maybe even if he's not a physical freak, he could still make a lot of plays. He had, I think, five interceptions. He was, he had 14 pressures, very effective blitzer. That's why it's the issue with fit. It's like, we're going to see how fit works when done in its most pure form. Because every single one of these picks, there's no, there is no project that they took to just,

hey, we're just going to see what's there for this guy. It was, no, we are drafting him to be this. We're drafting a fullback to be this. We're drafting a running back to be this. We're drafting a defensive tackle and this defensive tackle to be that and Golda to be that. and Thomas to be this. So how's that going to work? I'm, you know, probably won't work for every single one of them because it usually doesn't.

But I don't think it's illogical either when you play such a unique defense that Brian Flores does. So I'm a little hit or miss on that pick as well because there's some concerns there about a reach. There's some concerns there about did he just have the one good year? But Flores is making a bet on a Josh Mattelis or a Cam Bynam like. player where they think IQ and identification because a guy who runs a 4-5-6 who can see things fast is a better football player than a guy who runs a 4-3-7 and sees things slow. And Brian Flores believes in that big time. So that's what I think plays into that Jacoby Thomas pick.

The mat trackers says no one cares what they were going for. That's not how consensus works. Oh, I know, man, all about how consensus works. trust me. I've been in that, well, I've known a reef for a very long time. So a reef's consensus board has been a long thing that I've paid attention to. So I've read all of his stuff on it. We've had many conversations about it.

He's been on the show many times. I know all about how it works and how it doesn't and how there's a lot of people who are just finding out of today, which blows my freaking mind. The people who are just acting like this was invented today is crazy. NFL teams have been looking at these consensus boards for a while, not all 32, but certainly behind the scenes, there are many NFL teams that are looking at the consensus board and comparing their picks and, you know, trying to lay out where guys are going to be selected, what their value is and everything and using them in the draft room.

And I am very aware that consensus and fit do not go together. That is either, it's either a strength or a blind spot of the consensus board. and I'm not sure which it is. And that might be situation to situation. Like, it might be a blind spot of the board because some guy might fit perfectly like Jake Golda into the Vikings defense, but it also might be a strength of saying, eh, fit could be overrated. I'm not sure which one it's going to be in this situation.

Anyway, rest of your comment, the reason it matters because there's data that shows. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, like, that's, I mean, I've talked about this a lot when it comes to Caleb Banks. Yeah, there's clear data that shows. that if you reach, your chance of going wrong is higher. It's not 100%, but it's just higher. I mean, when you look at the charts of like the consensus versus the reaches, and it's like there's still a lot of noise there when it comes to that.

Now, I'm a believer in the data pointing you in a certain direction, and I would not draft a player that analysts had as a second round pick at 18th overall. I would just not do that because that to me is, is way too risky versus the history. So what they did is something I wouldn't have done because I believe in the data. But I also think that there are mitigating factors to some of these draft picks. And we can't do the consensus board thing for all seven rounds. You can't say to the Philadelphia Eagles, don't blow a sixth round draft pick on the guy

who had the crazy combine who's never played football before because he's not on my consensus board. Like you can't do that. Like the day three or late day three. two, those picks should be about fit. But day one, yeah, I've said it many times. Like, you're taking a risk by doing it. But that's all it is.

It doesn't guarantee. Like, that's the, I think, maybe an annoyance on the other side is that if you, if you do it, if the Vikings take a very, very talented player, I think some people would say raw, raw physical tools and what he could be, maybe a top 10 talent in the draft. if you're going to say don't ever take that player and if you do then you are super dumb and it's going to 100% be a failure well you're going too far there also that reminds me of like don't ever shoot like a mid-range shot or something or don't ever hit a single um sometimes it's good to hit a single or sometimes it's good you know my point is that all these analytic things in

general they all point you toward here's the generality It's not every single situation. It's just percentages. So if the chances of the 18th overall pick, by the way, the chance of that being successful is only a coin flip to begin with. And if taking this risk moves it down to 35% chance, that's still as much as Tony Gwyn's batting average. Like, that's still 35%. Three out of 10 plus, you know, three and a half out of 10 times. So that's kind of how it works with this.

that yes, there's signals there, there's red flags there. But it's not like, oh, my gosh, if you drafted against consensus, you'll never, ever get a hit. Like, I don't think that's how it works. So, um, now, Matt, I, I do agree. You could use the argument that people, uh, didn't see what they were going for for every team as an excuse that I, I, I would agree and disagree with like half and half because I do think that it's hard for an analyst.

to understand the nuances of a Brian Flores defense, if they're also understanding other 32 other teams. And that's not to disrespect anyone. They know Flores exists. But they don't know it like the Vikings know it. Like they don't know it how like we know it. Like we the details, the ins and outs, the types of players, all the like the fine granular stuff that goes into this of what they're looking for.

I don't know how a draft analyst could know that unless Brian Flores. is walked up to them, pulled out a whiteboard and showed them. You know, I think we've watched enough tape. We've seen enough games where we can see it. And also the bigger plan of building on the defensive line based on some ways that opponents were attacking them rush-wise. Like, that's really specific. That's not looking at a depth chart, looking for the strength and weaknesses and saying, well, it looks like they need a safety. And I'm going to go with a safety.

well that this is a little more detailed than that. I'm not saying that's going to be right. I'm saying that I think that that played into the draft grades is that I don't know that everyone has time to spend how many hours, not only watching the draft picks that everyone's taking, but also you're supposed to watch the tape of Vikings Chargers Thursday night football last year when they got beat with a certain type of run scheme. Like, it just seems like that's unlikely.

So it's very clearly based on the fit. And yes, every team's going to say, well, we drafted for players that fit us. But I think that there's a lot more from some other teams of drafting guys that might have high potential that just are swings at something or this was the most talented players. So we just took them. So, I mean, you have, like, there's validity to what you're saying. But I also think that this is not just, this isn't Jim Schwartz's defense. It's not a four or three single high.

We're like, yeah, I know what that is. This is a moving target. Like, this is a nuanced thing. So I think that that does make it different. But, I mean, you're not wrong to say that most teams would say, hey, why did you reach? Because we thought the guy was a fit. Yeah, that's for sure.

That's for sure. Spencer, I understand the bank's pick was risky, but outside of that, the draft filled a ton of needs. For a longer term, yeah, I think that's right. Or at least they took a shot at filling needs longer term. The guys have to work out. But I think that's true. If we look a year down the road and Brian O'Neill doesn't sign and you have a tackle,

or you've got a nose tackle and a defensive tackle that if they play well, think about how much that's worth over what they would be to replace in free agency or how hard it would be to replace. If banks and Orange are both good, man, like that's a huge win because those are guys that are very hard to find anywhere except for the draft. and that factored into it too, I'm sure. If, you know, Golda becomes similar, I think asking him to be Van Ginkle is pretty tough,

but similar and similar role or whatever, that's going to be very valuable to them. It might not be right away, but it could be if somebody gets hurt, if, you know, Eric Wilson goes down for six weeks or something, and then they've got a second round pick who can jump right in, that's going to be pretty helpful. Scholes says,

I'm not sure. actually I understand what you're getting at here. Oh, Jawan Jennings. Yeah, Jawan Jennings. Okay, that's sometimes we oscillate between so many different, uh, conversations at once. I'm trying to like, oh, that's what you're talking about. Skoll, uh, 1984 with a five on the end says, uh, Jennings knows the system. Um, very good blocker, solid red zone threat at six foot three.

Three years, 53 million. That would be a lot. That would be a lot. If they gave them that, then I probably would. be like, oh, okay, so are they concerned about Edison long term? But that might be what he's looking for. If it's two years, I think that that makes a lot of sense for him. But I'm guessing that where he's gotten to in free agency, it's going to be more of a one-year

thing. You want to go all in. You want like a huge investment in Jennings. But I'm not ever going to argue with more wide receiver talent. That's for sure. Joker, I didn't know draft rates went lower than C minus. Bleacher report must have been. really salty and they're pre-written their Thineman story.

There is, do we look like a team of the plan? That's a good question. I mean, there's a rant there every year. I usually have a rant about, you know, how the draft analysis universe is really bad at predicting this or especially reporting on it because there's just so many bogus insider reports that come out. I mean, mocks don't, moks are fun. Like, moks are great.

And the draft analysis that the guys watch the tape and beat the bushes for every detail, the bruglers, the Jeremiah's, all that. I like that a lot. The, I'm actually an insider, even though I don't know anything and it sounds like I'm making it up. Uh, those people I'm not a huge fan of. And the fact that so many people just sort of lazily wrote in Dylan Thineman is kind of telling about that world, I guess.

It was like people got pretty tired of ordering, uh, the top at the different way, just like throw, oh, obviously the Vikings will just take this safety. It just, it felt, it felt very, very lazy. honestly. And also was a reminder of just how teams will never, whatever you hear. This team's targeting that guy. This team's targeting that guy. Adam Schaefter usually has a couple of things right before the draft. He was the one that had Jeremiah loved Arizona before anybody had it. But usually a lot of that is just noise.

It's just I tried to talk. I talked to somebody and they told me whatever and who the heck knows if it's right or not, but I'm going to put it out there as if it's gospel, that's always odd to me. But anyway, do you look like a team of the plan? You look like, well, they don't have a general manager yet. So I guess we're going to have to start figuring that out shortly. But they look like a team that has reached a certain point in their progression of their roster that will soon need to go on to the next phase.

That's what they are. Do they look like a team with a plan? they looked like a team that had a plan in 2023 to take it down and rebuild it, and then they executed that plan to this point. They executed it almost to exactly the way that it was drawn up by Kasi Adolfo Mensa, which was to have the bridge quarterback and then go to the rookie quarterback contract and spend like crazy and build the best roster you can and then profit. The unfortunate part was that the quarterback wasn't ready and you didn't profit.

So now they're in the wake of that. They're in the, like, the aftermath. And what they're trying to do is cobble together enough of what's left to take another swing at it. And they've got Kyler Murray here. And that's going to take you in a choose your own adventure way, right? Kyler Murray might take you to franchise quarterback land or he might take you to a somewhat forgettable, like, I don't want to say Warren Moon was forgettable as a Viking quarterback. but with the last year he was here it was just kind of like he's hurt and it wasn't that great but like

even if it was like a war and moon kind of kind of drop in from a really good quarterback that didn't stay that long like is it going to be something like that uh is it going to go very poorly and it it ends up being a disaster and then they're blowing it up and changing coaches and picking a different quarter like i don't know like there's so many different ways this could go from here with Kyler Murray that we don't know what's coming next and we don't know what the next GM's plan is. The previous GM's plan has been executed to this point. And then now there will be a new plan going forward. And we're going to eventually, whoever that is, whether it's Rob or someone else, we're going to find out.

But they're a team that had a plan that took them through 2026 and this is the last year of that plan. And now they're going to need a new plan. JP, we're getting bad grades because of the reaches on banks. and Thomas, also not getting positions of needs such as cornerback or center higher, really unfair to compare ours to the 49ers and Jaguars. Yeah, the 49ers and Jaguars went like completely out of left field with what they did. So that was, yeah, it's a little different, but you're right that everyone had them taking a center, everyone had them taking usually a receiver, a corner, and when they didn't do that stuff higher

and when they reached so much, they were bound to get pretty bad grades. and I think that the reach on Caleb Banks, if you're trying to be the most fair and ethical, greater that you can, it's hard to give that one anything more than like a C unless you really believe in that player just because of all the things that could potentially go wrong. Like if he doesn't figure out how to be more productive,

and he ends up being a guy like Jerry Tillery, who just for whatever reason had all the physical tools and was huge and just couldn't make it happen. I really don't know why. But it just couldn't get there, couldn't get to the quarterback, couldn't make plays. If he ends up being that,

and Jerry Tilleri was a mid-first round defensive tackle, if that's how it ends up going, then it won't be a shock because of the number of pitfalls that were there, a number of red flags that were there. And if you're trying to do a draft grade and the reason you may have had banks as a second round pick was because of all,

all those potential negatives, you can't go back and be like, well, I guess since they did it, it makes sense. No, you kind of have to stick with, well, like, there's red flags there and I'm going to, you know, go with a C or whatever. But I think you also in the same analysis have to acknowledge the fact that there's a possibility that it could be better than that, that it could have a high ceiling. So it's not a cut and dry, give them a B minus and move on. there's well, it could be a bad pick.

And if it is, then we'll all go back and say, all right, well, we saw that coming. But if it's not, we'll understand why it wasn't because the guy had so much talent. By the way, the Fandul question of the day is that Fanduln already has odds for the first overall pick in 2027. And Arch Manning is the favorite to be taken at plus 150 at the number one overall pick. Are we going to be talking draftable quarterbacks at any point in the 2026 season? That is the fan dual question of the day. My guess is yes at some point. I just don't know when.

Is it like early in the season if they hit a slump? Is it late in the season if they come short of the playoffs? If Kyler Murray gets hurt. I'm going to say there will be a week where we start to say, are we going to have to study quarterbacks this year? Norse Force. Dylan Bell, wide receiver Steve Smith, had Bell rate as the first. fifth best receiver in the drafts.

Yeah, undrafted free agent Dylan Bell. I watched that video. And if you watch it, I felt validated because every time I watched Georgia last year, I was like, what is this offense? This is like, do they, they don't believe in this quarterback at all. This is bad. And he just, he has lots of nicknames for how bad it was. And he really liked Dylan Bell.

Bell is a guy that is got some juice to him, even though 40 time isn't a amazing, but has a little bit of that run through you, also has a little bit of that wiggle to him. I'll be interested in him when we get out there. I mean, rookie minicamp doesn't tell us a whole heck of a lot. It's one practice. So that's not a lot that we get to see. But, you know, OTA's mini camp, like sometimes there's an undrafted free agent who starts

to show a little bit. And he might be that guy. He would be my most interesting on my list that I will, I know I promise that I will eventually make eventually I will make the most interesting UDFAs I've been kind of into the draft class first hunter the biggest problem with the banks pick for me is his lack of discipline which makes me feel like he may not be a great professional right away I say this with no certainty though yeah right yeah look that when I watched banks he just looks so raw like he looks like a guy that needs a ton of coaching. And the biggest issue for me is that there is this, the best defensive tackles in the

league have this explosiveness to them right when the snap is taken. It's just big burst. And it makes them so hard to deal with for guards and centers that I just don't really see from Caleb Banks. But then when he gets going, you just, you feel that size and how. it's like little kids bouncing off their uncle and Thanksgiving or something. There's a lot of reps that look that way. And sometimes he'll just put a hand on a guy and just push up and just go flying. Like I remember one time I was chatting with Linval Joseph and I said, hey, you know, thanks, man for the interview and we'll catch you later or whatever.

And he said, thanks, man. And he patted me on the back and I almost fell over. It was just like, thunk. Like, it's, like that's what you see in real time from Caleb Banks. but the size of the hands and the arms and the strength that's there just naturally, you see guys just moving because of this power. But you don't see what you said. You don't see a lot of discipline.

You don't see a lot of technique. It's all raw stuff. So they're really buying into their ability to coach that. Let's see. Phenom says not sure why everyone thinks the Vikings had a bad draft. If it was known as a weak draft, well, it's really because we had a vision and that vision was not what they did. I had a couple of different ways that I thought it could go and be something that everyone would like.

I mean, if they had drafted, Mackay Lemon is maybe not the right person to go with, but let's even just say Dylan Deneman. If they had drafted Dylan Thineman, Jake Gold Day, Sam Hecht, and Brennan Thompson, I think everyone would be like, oh, great. Starting safety, wide receiver who can play right away, future center and Van Ginkle. Perfect. But when you go back up tackle, when everyone can't stand your safety prospect that you took, what, 98th? I mean, come on.

But when everyone, like, thinks that's a massive reach and then your first round pick feels incredibly risky, you just can't ask people to grade that as like an A plus. Casey, Vikings best draft in five years, solid B plus. Okay, that's funny. I don't know if you're kidding, but like, that's funny. Five years. Well, yeah, well, Jefferson would have been 2020. 21 was Darisaw and total disaster.

Yeah, yeah, I mean, I, it's, I mean, the fact that they actually drafted players, that helps. That definitely helps to have drafted players. Coburg, this draft is a C for me. Neil says, is Gavin Bartholomew still hurt? I don't believe so. I don't believe so. I think that he's going to be out there. He was active technically or cleared technically at the end of last season.

So that's kind of like getting an extra rookie, if you will, because he did miss all of last year. Goblin, like drafting for fit, but reaches are still reaches. I think that's fair. I think that's totally fair. And this is where I've gone back and forth like three days in a row of, I feel like every single player you can very easily go this. is why this guy makes sense for the Minnesota Vikings into the future and a little bit right now, but mostly into the future. You can really get it.

You can see where, all right, Flores thinks if they get their hands on Caleb Banks and they develop him and they have the right plan for him, then he's going to maximize his talent. They think if they stick, you know, Dominique Orange right over a center, that that's going to have an impact that spreads to the rest of the defense. Okay, I can buy that. they think Jacoby Thomas will handle what they could do mentally better than other people. That's huge for this defense. It's not a simple defense.

In fact, it's very complicated for safeties. Okay, I can buy that. I like Gold Day. I just think Gold Day is a good player. He was productive. He was violent. He made plays at all phases. He had good pass rushes.

He was good coming downhill and making tackles. He was good in coverage. Like, that's an easy one. that's not really that debatable because even if he even if they didn't have a van ginkle role and they just drafted this guy you'd be like yeah i can see that um good combine good numbers like all that sort of stuff so you know i know coburg said that's you know your favorite player yeah that's the easiest one to look at and justify but you're right i mean reaches are reaches uh in the first round the thomas one i think has much less predictive power

than something in the first round and it is risky um Matthew says the college production numbers are not amazing for first a few of our picks, and that makes me nervous, optimistic grade B minus, but most of the time more of a C plus. That's one of my concerns as well. Now, Gold Day, like, it's different because he graded very well and he's not an edge rusher necessarily. So he had some success rushing the passer. He was very successful as a tackler, chasing people down, playing aggressively.

Like all of that was very good for him. him. So I say he is a plus productive player, but I mean, Dominic Orange, his grades dropped quite a bit this year. One of the factors there might be that they had him on the field all the time. And those guys you don't always have on the field all the time, like those nose tackles because he was just one of their best players. But that's no, you know, that's no excuse. The production went down this year for Dominic Orange from 2024. It didn't play as well. And let's see.

Yeah, I mean, Thomas, though, was productive. Thomas was, but just for one year, that might concern you a little bit. And someone like Claiborne, I don't know, I mean, it was fairly productive, but it's at Wake Forest, a little hard to tell. So, yeah, I mean, I think that you would have, it was, there were just, there were just players that were so much more obvious and easy to say, this is a good pick. Sam Hacked would have been, yeah, everybody had that. Kansas State Center, throw him in there. Maybe he starts. Maybe Brandel beats him out.

There you go. Future center. Perfect. Brennan Thompson, the wide receiver who was taken early in the fourth or Skylar Bell. I didn't even mention Skylar Bell. It's hard to not. Like, I just like Skylar Bell a lot. Very, very productive.

4-440 at the Combine. Like, man, that guy can really play football. That would have been very easy for everyone to say, yep, that makes sense, as opposed to a safety that was supposed to go in the fifth round. Like it's just, it's not what you were looking for. And I think that's why it doesn't get graded as high. Not that the chances are that much different than any other draft working out, but just it wasn't what everyone was kind of identifying before the draft.

Cobra Kai draft grades are for entertainment purposes. Drades cannot be determined for a year or two. Yeah, I mean, that's right. They're not, um, yeah, I mean, yes, yes, yes. They don't tell you, like, of course, if the Vikings get graded badly, it doesn't mean guaranteed it's going to be bad. But I think it tells you what everyone thought of your process, what all the draft analysts thought of your decision making in the draft,

and they all thought you didn't do a very good job of it. So it does tell you that. It tells you that most people think you kind of mishandled it. But their thought on whether you mishandled, that has not had predictive power. So back and forth we go. Al, these guys need to pan out on the field to reverse the narrative that the Vikings drafted poorly. Yeah, that's right. I mean, that's, and that's why I always say that we're going to

find out soon enough, but in the right aftermath of the draft, what else are we supposed to do other than look back and debate it and talk about it? And then we put that away and we start playing football. And then we see, um, if these guys work out, then no one will say it was a bad draft. And if they don't, then, uh, whoops, like there's some, I will, going back through, there are drafts that I was very skeptical on. 2022 is the biggest one. And that didn't work out at all. But when you look at the draft grades they got for 2022,

they weren't that bad. So, you know, yeah, Joker, that's funny. The draft grades were right about 2022. The quantity of players other teams got from us, but they haven't been good on other teams, except for I think Naylor will be fine. Eric says, if someone asked me why we picked orange, I will answer, take a look at all the other teams that ran against us.

Yeah, I mean, that's really what it's about. It's about opening things up for, and yeah, I agree, Matt, that not many people have issue with that pick. That was a good value pick. There were some people at him as a second rounder just because of the size and power and athleticism. But yeah, I mean, that one's an easy one to understand. And that's why, like, the first, the first round pick is so heavily weighted in the draft grade. If people think you reached on the first round pick by a lot, you're not going to get. get graded very high.

But it doesn't matter as much if you got fine value on Gold Day and Orange and Tiernan. And then Thomas ends up being a reach and, you know, people didn't like that. But it's almost the last pick of the third round. And that's where I kind of go, I don't know, man, that seems pretty tough. Phenom, why would we think that everyone has the same rankings on every positioner player? Who cares what the experts think? No, I mean, the experts have been shown in the top 100 picks that if you put together the hundred best people or whatever it is, I think it's about a hundred that a reef puts together.

If you put together the hundred best people at this and put their draft boards together, that there is wisdom and crowds that way. That if you add all of that, it's not, I think, it's a fact. It has shown that if you add that together, you can see where the red flags would be when the whole world who's good at this watched these players and thought this is the 70th best player and you took him at the 30th spot, that's kind of risky. Like, that might not work out for you. That's all it really is.

And people get really tweaked out over it sometimes. Like, that's all it really says. It really says that if you are reaching by a lot from what 100 draft analysts say, then you might have, you might be missing something. You might be talking yourself into something. Or in the case of Caleb Banks, maybe, maybe you have medical information that people don't. That could be part of it as well. I would like to know just out of curiosity. And maybe I have to see if I, anybody can find this or whatever. Like, where was, maybe we should see if we,

it's so hard to find. Like, if you're Googling draft board from January, like, where can I find, let me see if I can find this. I'm just kind of curious. Like, is this going to work? Yeah. Okay. Let's try to look like pre-NFL combine top 100. Can we get that? Or is Google just going to show us all of the, oh, 2027. This was from April. Just doing me absolutely no good, Google. Because I am curious, April 19th.

Can we get January in there? Can I type January? Can I find? Okay. All right. Here's January 27th. Can you guys see this? Okay, I think you can see this.

January 27th, 2026, Daniel Jeremiah's top 50. I'm curious about where Caleb Banks is. Let's see. Okay. Now, he still had Caleb Banks at 39th. So he ended at 51st, which I imagine was the being baked in was the injury. Let's see. What did it say then?

Tall, long athletic defensive tackle. 2024 tape was impressive, but he played three games in 2025, missing time with a broken foot. As a pass rusher, he'd, displays a lot of Twitch in his feet and hands. He can win with a quick club move or collapsed pocket with his power. He's very disruptive, but struggles to finish with production. That's, you know, that's been true.

He is frustrating to watch against the run. He flashes knockback power on the front side and range on the backside. However, there are long dry stretches where he hangs on the blocks or gets washed down the line of scrimmage. Overall, Banks has a lot of talent, but his injury history and inconsistency could slide him down the board on draft day. It did not, but that makes sense. Let's see.

Bruegler, let's see. Bruegler had a top 100. Let's see where he had, this was, was this a February 10th. So this would have been a pre, let's see if we could find banks. 24th. Now, that's much closer. Funny right next to Dylan Thineman. So that's much closer.

Casey Concepcion, Caden MacDonald, but he had him at 24th. Let's see what he had to say. this is going back before the combine. Yes, Banks missed most of 2025 because of injury and is still learning how to maximize this talent, but it's hard to find a 6-foot-6, 335-pound athlete with 35-inch arms and Banks' level of ability, teams like seeing him get better and better throughout Senior Bowl Week. That sounds more along the lines of what ended up happening and what the thought was. I wonder if I could find one more like pre- Okay, now I'm into complete random area.

So I guess what we see there then is that one of the analysts, at least, Dane Bruegler, had Caleb Banks right in the Vikings range without the medical information, knowing that he missed the time, but not knowing that he would also have another injury at the combine. So based on just the talent, had him more in that ballpark. So that's what I'd be curious about. If you told everyone, and look, I mean, we can only take them at their words since they did it. since they took him at 18. But if everybody knew the foot was completely fine,

would he have been draft, or would he have been as much considered a reach? I think that's the question. Yeah. I mean, Matt, I know all about, I know all about the reaches, man, and the percentages. We've been talking about this for years.