Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Reimagining the Minnesota Vikings' offseason

Episode Date: May 29, 2020

On the first day of free agency, the Minnesota Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to a contract extension. How would we have viewed the NFL draft? Would there have been an argument to talk Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts? Could the Vikings have signed Cam Newton or Jameis Winston with hopes that they might take over the following year?  Also, looking at the Stefon Diggs trade, who would the Vikings have drafted if they didn't trade Diggs? Would we have seen another player get moved instead?  What does this all tell us about the Vikings offseason?  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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A Touch More. New episodes of A Touch More drop Tuesday only on the Blue Wire Podcast Network. Be sure to subscribe to the show on Spotify, Apple, or anywhere else you listen to podcasts. Hey everybody, welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar with you and we'll get to my discussion with Arif Hasan in just one moment. I want to remind you to go to purpleinsider.com. That's where you can subscribe to all of my written work covering the Minnesota Vikings. And if you could rate and review this podcast, that would be a major, major help. It allows other Vikings fans to find this

podcast when they go searching and type in Vikings in whatever podcast app they're using. If you rate and review, this will be the first one that comes up. So it is greatly appreciated. All right, on to my conversation with Arif Hasan of The Athletic. All right, now we welcome in from The Athletic, Arif Hasan. What is going on, Arif? How are you? The same thing's going on for me as it is for everybody else. But yeah, I'm good. Podcasting, thinking about football, quarantining. That's about it these days.

Totally normal everyday thing that everyone's doing. Exactly right. So, Arif, I thought that you would be perfect for this because you are a creative and imaginative mind when it comes to football. And I was thinking to myself about this offseason and how the Vikings came out at the very end of the offseason feeling pretty good and getting pretty good marks for their offseason as a whole, but earlier when the offseason first started and the defense was coming apart, some by their doing of letting go players like Limbaugh, Joseph, and Xavier Rhodes, and some by players like Mackenzie Alexander and Trey Waynes leaving, that there was a lot of trepidation. How are you going to rebuild this defense? Who's on the team anymore? And so forth.

And we kind of moved past Kirk Cousins signing a contract extension pretty fast maybe that was just because a lot was happening with the Vikings this offseason and then we get into draft season they've got multiple first round picks and now we've just settled on oh yeah okay well Kirk Cousins is the quarterback going forward so I've got a couple of different scenarios that I want to go over with you and reimagine if they had gone differently how we would feel about the offseason. So let's start with the Kirk Cousins contract extension. They didn't give us any time to debate it, Arif. It was the first day of free agency.

No, it's done. Sorry, guys. Your podcasts are ruined for months. You would have had so much fun with this leading up to the draft had they not signed him to an extension but let's say they didn't and we go into free agency we go into draft season with Kirk Cousins still unclear about his contract situation even to this point in the offseason how differently would we have looked at the draft going into it had they not signed Cousins to an extension on that first day of free agency.

Yeah, I think that absolutely would have impacted the way that we've evaluated the draft. I think that we would be potentially even talking about, you know, the Vikings drafting Jordan Love instead of the Packers, you know, if they had traded up to do that. Yeah, I think that that's in the cards. I think that, you know, whether or not the Vikings were kind of interested in drafting a quarterback of the future would have been something that they, you know, would have put on the table. But I think that's kind of like maybe the potential obvious answer.

There were tons of quarterbacks. There's still a quarterback that are available in free agency that the Vikings could have been in on that, you know, maybe they could have groomed for the future. I think a PFF favorite, not something that the Vikings fan base might have been ecstatic about, but, you know, Jameis Winston would have been a possibility. You know, he signed with the Saints for a million dollars. I think that the Saints actually got a steal out of that, which is not something I thought I'd say about Jameis Winston.

But, you know, that's a possibility. They could have groomed him for, you know, potentially next year, and yeah, those are, you know, within the realm of possibility. Otherwise, I don't know that the rest of the offseason changes that much, because the Vikings actually still have $12 million in cap space. They haven't actually used any of the money that they freed up with the Kirk Cousins extension, which feels unintentional. I think they wanted to have used that money, and

they couldn't get around to doing it for whatever reason. So, yeah, the free agency period might have looked a little bit different, just in terms of quarterbacks they might have pursued that could have taken over long term. Maybe they, this seems even less likely, they could have even potentially signed cam newton uh and and groomed him to take over after he heals up his shoulder or whatever um but i think that the most interesting talking point i

think for you and i would have been to talk about the quarterbacks in the draft okay so let's go through a few of these options the drafting jordan love idea because he would have been the one who's there at that time the other guys Tua, Justin Herbert, Burrow we knew that they were going to be off the board very very quickly as long as everyone felt okay about Tua's hip and clearly the Miami Dolphins did so we would have gone into that like okay will they trade up to try to get one of those guys but those teams were not trading back from those opportunities to get the quarterback that they really wanted so you're looking at your your Jordan Love as a potential future option I think what I would have been saying is that's probably a no from me to go for Jordan Love even though I always have a great deal

of appreciation for teams that spend draft picks on quarterbacks, it's the best draft capital you can spend. Even if it's a seventh rounder and you pick a guy, usually if it works out one time or the guy even becomes a reasonable backup who wins you two games, then he's been worth that seventh round draft pick over your special teams gunner or something like that, which is what you usually get in the seventh round. But to spend first round capital to potentially trade up for Jordan Love, based on his history at Utah State, even though he's got a lot of great skills, he can make big time throws, he's got athleticism, he's got arm strength, all those things. But somebody who turns the ball over that much, I would have probably been very hesitant to say, yeah, this guy, plug him

in, he's going to be your next quarterback. I would have looked at that as a very, very risky move, which ultimately I still do with the Green Bay Packers making that play. Yeah, I know, of course. Yeah, I don't, I haven't fallen in love with Jordan Love. I don't think that, you know, he's a particularly great quarterback prospect. I think that you're right, that draft capital spent on a quarterback is generally a good idea. I just think that you'd have to go for a person that demonstrates more upside in college.

And I know that when people talk about Jordan Love, they only talk about upside. But the upside I'm talking about is translating it to actual wins. And I don't know that he's played well enough for you to be confident that he has the ability to do that. Obviously, his 2018 is a lot different than his 2019. That's kind of part of his appeal is that he had a pretty good 2018 season. Maybe even a more interesting thing for the Vikings to have done is if they had traded back even further in the first round, maybe they would have, you know, with the 21st pick,

instead of drafting Justin Jefferson, would have picked Jeff Gladney because cornerback's a bigger need than wide receiver, and then would have picked Jalen Hurts at the top of the second round or something like that. I think that's a move that both you and I would have actually been a little bit more on board with, just because I think Hurts, there's tons of issues with him as a quarterback. That's why he went in the second round, not the first. But I think he's got more interesting potential to develop into a long-term starter. And if you're asking someone to take over in 2021, which is kind of what the scenario is implying, I'm more

confident that Hurts can be at a spot where you're like, hey, I'm going to give you the keys to the offense. You understand what's going on in the room. You understand the players that we have. You're reasonably accurate in the intermediate area, which is what the offense needs. That's kind of what the Vikings offense wants to run around. That's what you were particularly good at at Oklahoma. Good at Alabama, too. That I would have

been more confident in, and that would have been a much more interesting talker. Because Jordan Love is just easy to argue against. Like, oh, well, he's bad. He shouldn't start. Jalen Hurts is a lot more interesting. No, I agree because if you had a year to get jalen hurts in and decide a whether you think he's got the potential to be a long-term starter you could also if you spent a second round draft pick on it or traded back you wouldn't feel as obligated to hand him the keys to the car even if he wasn't ready i mean that's. But also you could see what you have there.

And I think in Jalen Hurts he's a very intriguing prospect because of his running ability. And he does have the accuracy. And if you could give him more time to throw and process, he could make all the throws that he needs to make. That's exactly what Gary Kubiak does for Kirk Cousins. I mean, Hurts and Cousins couldn't be more different, but they both kind of need the same thing, which is that extra half tick to make their read and see the guy being open and make that throw.

And Jalen Hurts and Gary Kubiak might actually have been a really good fit, but you could design all those running elements. And that's the difference to me with Jordan Love. He may be athletic, but he's not a special runner. And I see Jalen Hurts as being a special runner. Even in the past, we've seen quarterbacks like Vince Young not accurate at all didn't know the playbook or didn't try to learn the playbook and he won a lot of football games because that running element just adds a totally different dynamic and I think with Jalen Hurts if you had planned for it not necessarily going

all in like Greg Roman has done with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore but at least least design your offense around him, I think that could have been pretty successful. That would have been the first thing that you and I for sure would have been pushing for is, hey, try to get Jalen Hurts but not necessarily have to trade up or give up extra draft capital to do it. Now let's look at the other options. They had not signed Cousins to a contract extension. The Cam Newton idea becomes very interesting. I have always been way down on Jameis Winston. I know that PFF, some people like him more than others.

I have never been very high on the guy who throws 30 interceptions. I don't know. And also doesn't exactly have a whole lot of leadership qualities that I would want either, unless you consider eating a W as a really good pregame speech. I tend not to. But these other options. Now, Andy Dalton even goes in this category of somebody where he's similar enough to Kirk Cousins and has a lot of wins on his resume with a really good team, where you might have been intrigued by bringing him in, trading a fifth, sixth, seventh round

draft pick for him to be your backup and potentially for him to go forward with what option would we have liked the most for someone to come in with the potential to start in 2021 if they couldn't sign cousins to a contract extension of all the quarterbacks that have the potential to get you to say 12 wins or something like that to be uber competitive i think Cam Newton is more likely to be a quarterback that puts you in 12 win range but I also think that he's less likely to be successful overall if that makes sense like I think if he's a success it pays off in a big way I think if Andy Dalton's a success your ceiling might be 10 wins or something like that. And so if you want to kind of go all in on a quarterback that's got the ability to generate

a bunch of wins for you, you maybe throw the dice and see if Cam Newton's healthy again. If that's the case, you've got potentially an interesting receiving core for him to work with, one that certainly knows how to adjust to the kinds of throws that Cam Newton sometimes throws. So that, I think, would have been more interesting, because I think if you're not going in for a ton of wins, it's not all that useful to go in for a quarterback. But I do think Andy Dolan is a viable alternate option.

I think Tyrod Taylor was also on the market. You've had a lot of history covering him. You know a little bit more about him than I do, but you want to talk about a play play action offense that, you know, relies on playmakers more than the quarterback. I think he's capable of running that system. He's been running that system. And so, you know, that's an opportunity for the Vikings to generate,

you know, potential conversation for what happens in 2021. It's no longer fair to say he's a developmental quarterback or anything like that. He is who he is. But I think that he's an interesting third option if newton's not working out if dalton isn't somebody that you're interested in i think dalton is maybe the best one for one comparison to kirk cousins available on the quarterback market and again this quarterback market was nuts i mean they could have gone after teddy right i was gonna bring that up i was gonna get to that that would have been the one that most fans wanted was, hey, you know, if Kirk Cousins isn't going to stay long-term.

Yeah, might as well. And then the moonshot, the one that would have made maybe me the happiest but probably wouldn't have been best for the Vikings is to grab P.J. Walker from the defunct XFL. He's been rough next, man. He was dominant.J. Walker from the defunct XFL. He was the roughnecks, man. He was dominant. Yeah, no, he was the headline generator for a league that definitely generated lots of interest in headlines. But, yeah, no, I mean, there were a lot more options available in this year's quarterback market than I think we've seen in a long time just in terms of mid-level starters that could have been potentially available.

And I think if I were to order them, I would say I'd probably put Cam Newton at number one just because if it works out, it works out in a huge way. Andy Dalton, number two, because I don't think you're really concerned about him potentially picking up the offense or the floor for performance for him. And then number three, then you begin to have this conversation, you want Tyrod Taylor or Teddy Bridgewater, maybe, again, Jameis Winston, who you're not, again, a super fan of, which I totally understand. He's the weirdest quarterback in the world to me. You know, he was, I think he's number one in first down rate, too,

2017, 2018 of all quarterbacks, and that usually translates really well into predicting future wins. His accuracy adjusted over depth of target is really good. And then, you know, he throws a bunch of picks, which are, you know, really bad. So he's a really interesting quarterback. I think if you're a bad team, Jameis Winston is one of the best assets you can have if your goal is to win games because either you're losing by 30 or you're winning by 20. And so, you know, that's an interesting asset to have.

But the Vikings are, in theory, not a bad team, right? And so you don't want to have to dig yourself out of holes. So I think that you'd probably rather have Teddy. Even if you throw the fandom aside and the history with the Vikings aside, you'd probably rather have Teddy than Jameis. But he is somebody that's interesting if you trust your quarterback staff a lot. And maybe, you know, those picks are just a product of poor eyesight, and he's gotten that.

Yeah, that's right. He got the surgery now, so he can see who he's throwing it to on the other team. Arguably important. Well, it might be. But when they're running back past you for a pick six, I mean, what does it matter if you can see whose number it is or not? And, yeah, the Winston thing, I think he's always going to be that reckless. And the guy I look at for being similar to him is Ryan Fitzpatrick. Like Ryan Fitzpatrick has

had some good seasons, but he's just so reckless. He has been super reckless. And when those two were the quarterbacks for Tampa Bay in 2018, it's like, I mean, certainly entertainment value was high because they were just going to be hucking it down the field, but I don't think that that recklessness ever changes. I think you're either that or you're not. You can't really rein him in. The Cam Newton thing that still sticks in my head is that 67% completion percentage right before he got hurt with a shoulder injury. They had readjusted the offense so he didn't have to whip it downfield as often. And if his body's back in shape, I mean, I think he's a team that can consistently lead you

into the playoffs and win playoff games. It wasn't that long ago in 2017 he's in the playoffs. He's, what, a drive away from beating the New Orleans Saints and changing everything in 2017 with that playoff structure. So I would prefer Cam Newton. But there's also the other option here that the Vikings would have had if Kirk Cousins didn't sign his extension of doing nothing. Not drafting one, not signing one, keep Sean Mannion as your backup,

and then see what happens. Because we look around the league right now, Arif, and we see so many teams are set, good to go, quarterback situations, they feel great. In a year, that might be completely different. I don't know if we saw Tom Brady being the Tampa Bay Bucks quarterback at this time last year. I know that he did not have money on that. So the Vikings could have just sat around and wait to see what happens and then hope that somebody else ends up on the market. Maybe Pittsburgh decides they've had enough of Roethlisberger or something,

and he ends up being the Brett Favre type of situation, and history just keeps repeating itself. Or Aaron Rodgers, of course, could have been a potential option. I mean, not really, but I think that that would have been another way to approach it, would have just to say, let's go for it here in 2020 and have this be it. And if it doesn't work out, then we'll assess our options, whether it's drafting one, trading up in the draft for a quarterback. You never know who's going to emerge.

We didn't see Joe Burrow as the number one overall pick this time last year. So there might be three or four quarterbacks that you feel good about in the draft or somebody ends up a free agent or a trade option that we didn't expect. Yeah, I mean, who knows? Tanner Morgan could become a first-round pick. Yeah, no, it's entirely possible that, you know, the Vikings do nothing. They've basically got, like, you know, no contingency quarterback for 2021. And, you know, if it doesn't work out, Kirk Cousins hits the free agency market again, something he is loathe to do, I guess,

despite the fact that that earns him more money than getting extensions. And then, I mean, a lot of the quarterbacks we just talked about are one-year contracts, right? So, you know, hey, maybe Drew Bruce gets injured again. Jameis Winston, it turns out, is actually good because of the eyesight and working with Sean Payton. And maybe, you know, you court him in free agency and kind of drive up his price along with the Saints. You know, I think Teddy's on a one-year contract, I want to say. If not, you know, there's still kind of other quarterbacks available. Cam Newton technically is still available.

Maybe when he signs, you know, he's on a one-year contract. That's a possibility, right, that, you know, we didn't like the prospects for the quarterback group that was available to us in free agency. It turns out a lot of those same guys are still there. Maybe Phillip Rivers isn't your option anymore. Maybe you don't want him, but a lot of these quarterbacks are potentially available. Maybe the Vikings will, because they've got cousins, they've got a floor in terms of how many wins they should probably have. They're probably not going to be in the running for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields, the guys that we kind of maybe expect to be at the top

of the quarterback class. But like you said, you know, somebody could emerge. It could be, you know, Sam Ellinger from Texas, Tanner Morgan from Minnesota, both of whom people are talking about as, like, really good quarterbacks, something I would not have expected, like, a year ago either. Or a ground pick from Minnesota. Like, what? Yeah, it blows my mind, right? And I wouldn't have picked Tanner ago either. First-round pick from Minnesota. Like, what? Yeah, it blows my mind, right?

And I wouldn't have picked Tanner Morgan either. I would have picked Zach Aniksted, right? Right. But, yeah, there's any possibility that a quarterback just kind of emerges from the ether and becomes a first-round pick. And that becomes part of the conversation, too. Yeah, that I think actually is not necessarily all that bad a plan. Again, doesn't seem to affect the Vikings in free agency because the Vikings didn't use.

They've got $12 billion in cap space right now. They didn't use any of the extra cap space that they got with the Cousins extension. So entirely possible that they, you know, if they do nothing, free agency doesn't change at all, one iota, and the Vikings enter 2021 with a clean slate. And again, if Cousins plays really well, the Vikings are more than happy to pay through the nose in order to sign him on the free agency market in 2021 if he takes them to an NFC Championship game.

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final dance visit betonline.ag and use the promo code blue wire to receive your new welcome bonus and check out all the action bet online your online wagering solution so here's a question for you. We've looked at all the potential options they would have had had they not signed Cousins to a contract extension. And a lot of them are really interesting from an entertainment standpoint. They sound like what I would have done on a Madden game, like just sign this guy or sign that guy or tank and draft a quarterback.

Would it have been better at those options to have all those possibilities or to have Kirk Cousins signed to an extension? Because the value of the extension to Cousins was the flexibility it gave you in free agency, and again, for like the fourth time already, they didn't use it. No, I think, or yes, it would have been better because I don't think being committed to like a 40 million dollar cap hit for him in 2023 which every time I bring this up people are like well a Reef you know hey

in 2022 a Reef you know they can actually get out from under that contract in 2021 and it's like well the 2022 cap hit guarantees on like the fifth day of the league year in 2021 and so they have to cut him in 2021 and incur like a 40 million dollar dead cap in order to be free of him the year after

uh so they're committed to him for all three years the way that contract is structured and there is like virtually no cap space that he's giving up as a result of that i mean the vikings freed up cap space this year They pushed it in the next couple of years. And, you know, assuming that, like, nothing wonky happens with the cap because of the weirdness with TV revenues and the season and, you know, their contingent upon TV revenues and so on, assuming that there's no change to the cap, which I think that they would work out anyway,

they become, you know, in a tight spot. They become kind of strapped for cash again, just like this offseason. But I think with an older roster that you're just like less willing to kind of just move around with things. So, yeah, I don't think it was wise for the Vikings to extend Cousins, even though in all of my offseason plans that I constructed, it made just tons of sense to extend him and take advantage of the extra cap room. So just because the Vikings didn't take advantage of the benefits of that, I would say that it might as well just not have done it at all.

Well, I do think that that massive cap hit a couple of years from now, we might change the way we look at it if everything works out to have a 17-game season, and then the salary cap goes way up through the roof. If they have a 17-game season in 2021, then the next salary cap will be $100 million more, and we'll say, well, a $45 million cap hit, not that bad. And whoever's a free agent that offseason, good for you because you are getting paid like crazy. So I can understand they would look forward and say, let's take the risk, let's roll the dice and hope that that turns out to ultimately be a similar percentage of the cap as it is right now because the cap's going to go way up. But as you mentioned, there's some

mitigating circumstances here that might delay things or throw things off a little bit. I would say that from a fun standpoint of us talking about it, there are many more options that are more entertaining to me. But now that the dust has settled a little bit, and I think you could actually win in 2021, the one risk I wouldn't want to take is being okay in 2020 drafting 23rd overall and doing the jordan love thing that the packers just did so you get the fourth best quarterback in the draft or you hope that cam newton stays healthy or you hope that jamis winston can see or what you know

like none of these things sound way better than kirkousins with a Justin Jefferson in his second year, Irv Smith in his third year, Adam Thielen still in his prime, the offensive line developing. I mean, 2021 looks to me like it might be your best shot. We thought it was last year, but now after this draft, if things fall the right way, it might end up being 2021 that is their best chance. I have a couple more for you, kind of we can go a little rapid fire, sort of reimagining the offseason.

Cousins extension, clearly the biggest thing that happened. But Stephon Diggs being traded to Buffalo is another one. If they had, let's say, not logged on that day and did not see his tweets, or the Bills had not been online at that particular moment to see his tweets, and the Vikings do not trade Stephon Diggs, as you mentioned, the salary cap, Or the Bills had not been online at that particular moment to see his tweets. And the Vikings do not trade Stefan Diggs. As you mentioned, the salary cap, they'd probably still be okay. And it might not have changed a lot.

But who would we have been looking at in the first round? Would it have still just been Jeff Gladney? Would it have been some other different approach? Would they have traded somebody else to try and get additional first-round picks? How would we be looking at this? That's a pretty interesting question, because I think everybody that was of interest on the offensive line was already gone by the time they picked. You know, just the reason Jefferson was available is because all these offensive linemen went earlier, including, you know, players that it was not particularly, you know, high on, like the Miami Dolphins drafted Austin Jackson, who a lot of people, you know, players that it was not particularly, you know, high on, like the Miami Dolphins drafted Austin Jackson,

who a lot of people, you know, mocked to the Minnesota Vikings. And I think that, you know, if you're not drafting Jefferson there, you're either, you know, moving up for Tristan Wirth, something that I actually think the Vikings might still have been interested in doing kind of regardless of the whole Stephon Diggs thing. But with Stephon Diggs secured, I think that they're much more likely to do that. Then they go into the second round needing a cornerback and having kind of solved the issue on the offensive line.

And, you know, maybe they would have drafted Jalen Johnson, or, hey, maybe they would have been comfortable pairing, you know, Trevon Diggs with Stephon Diggs. You know, those are all possibilities. But I do think that if they don't do that, if they don't need a receiver right away, but they do want depth at receiver, this is the perfect draft for that.

Because, I mean, we talked about it ad nauseum all offseason, but, you know, they could have had K.J. Hamler in the second round, or they could have had Chase Claypool, or, you know, you go further down, they could have had Tyler Johnson, if anyone wanted to talk about that, or Denzel Mims, Van Jefferson won in the second round. Tons of players, or, you know, you go further down, they could have had Tyler Johnson, if anyone wanted to talk about that, or Denzel Mims, Van Jefferson winning the second round. Tons of players, right, that they could have added

that would have rounded out their depth in a really interesting and useful way. And, you know, they wouldn't have used a first-round pick on a receiver, which is fine. But I do think that they would have been much more interested in finding a way to package. Maybe they would have traded somebody else. Maybe they would have traded Anthony Harris and moved up for Tristan Wurst or something like that. So that remains a possibility. But by the time they pick, there's no offensive linemen that are interesting, and they don't want Justin Jefferson anymore. And

so they probably trade back again anyway. And maybe the draft looks identical, right? They would have drafted Jeff Gladney at 31 or at 30 or wherever they trade down to, and then they draft Ezra Cleveland and so on just because there weren't a ton of options, I think, besides Jefferson by the time that they picked that were intriguing enough that I would have said that's a good alternate pick or in a world where they've solved receiver. That's something that they want to do. I keep on forgetting that they don't have that pick in this scenario. Right, right. Well, maybe they traded somebody else for it, which is going to be another scenario.

But I wanted to add to that that I think I still would have been pushing to get another receiver. And going into this year, though, I would have looked at the offense as almost a sure thing to be as good as it was last year because of the development of someone like Irv Smith and B.C. Johnson but especially Irv Smith I was really impressed when Adam Thielen was out I thought he did a great job and also showed a blocking ability that I didn't necessarily expect from a rookie to be able to step in right away and at least be a competent blocker we saw guys like Mike Gusecki of Miami step in and just get steamrolled right from the very beginning. This guy is never blocking anybody.

And when we see your Travis Kelsey's, your George Kittle's of the world, I don't know if Irv Smith can be that good, but he might be in that ballpark of somebody who can run after the catch and do many, many different things. And his first year, he got his feet wet, and now the expectations would be higher. Now I'm a little more on shaky ground because I can't guarantee that Justin Jefferson steps in and has 60 catches for the Vikings. I would look at it more like, you know, if he gets 35 or 40, that's a solid rookie season. If he gets anything more than that, it's a bonus based on what previous receivers have

done. But with Diggs, you would know exactly what you were getting. And then having a healthy feeling, a budding Irv Smith, you would feel really good about where the offense was at, especially with adding another offensive lineman in the offseason and other guys developing like Drew Samia, like Garrett Bradford. Yeah, and I think a lot of people, and not just Vikings fans, I just think that NFL fans in particular forget,

it's pretty difficult for a rookie receiver to produce. It's pretty difficult for a rookie anybody to produce right away. There were only three receivers last year, and that was actually a pretty good class. There were only three receivers last year that, as a rookie producer of 800 yards, who knows how that receiving class is going to turn out. Maybe it's an excellent class. But, you know, you don't necessarily always find out rookie year whether or not a player is going to be capable. And, you know, it's, I think it's less than, if you take a look at first and second round picks,

I think it's like less than 50% actually produce at above an 800 yard level. And you're thinking about replacing Stephon Diggs, you know, a top 10 receiver in the NFL. And so you can't expect a rookie to just step in and play like that. Diggs grabbed a thousand yards in an offense that just wasn't like throwing the ball that often. You take a look and you're like, hey, why didn't he make the Pro Bowl? Well, the Pro Bowl always goes to, you know, receivers that are like top three in targets, right? And Diggs just didn't have as many targets compared to his peers. The fact that he ended up getting 1,000 yards is basically, I'm not going to say like a miracle, but it's a testament to his skill that he was able to generate so many yards

and so few targets, relatively speaking, even though he was the only receiver on that offense for a while. I don't think you're getting somebody like Justin Jefferson who has the ability to carry, right? Even though I do think that Jefferson was a great pick. I think he's a very talented receiver. He's got a lot of intriguing questions to answer that I generally think he'll do positively.

It's not the same realm as talking about, you know, Stephon Diggs and what his impact on the offense is. And I think a lot of people kind of forget, hey, this is a really great, you know, receiver class. Maybe eight of them will turn out, and maybe we'll find out in three years, right? It's really difficult, I think, for people to wrap their heads around the fact that a first round pick is just not necessarily going to replace a pro bowler right away and so yeah I agree with you that you would

have been just much more comfortable in the offense and you're in your three that you would have been most excited about where Adam Fields, Stephon Dixon, Irv Smith uh hoping that Irv Smith has the ability to kind of take over and take things I think to an additional level which I think that you're right that I think that he was on the path to do that, and he's somebody that you could have been, I think, pretty intrigued by based off of what he did last year. But, yeah, you would have needed a receiver to add on, but that would have been an insurance policy instead of the plan. And I think that we would have been able to talk about B.C. Johnson. I was digging on B.C. Johnson all offseason

because of the potential for him to have to replace, you know, Stephon Diggs, or I was digging on B.C. Johnson even as a third receiver. But I think we would have been more excited about him if he's competing for a third receiver spot instead of potentially competing for a second receiver spot because in the games where he started, where he's replacing Adam Thiel and he gets 20 yards a game, massivelyperforms you know his draft pick great pick by the vikings fantastic that doesn't mean he's a starter right right and so you're just not

comfortable with the state of the offense i think right now in terms of the playmakers that they have whereas obviously if they don't trade stefan diggs and they have to take a receiver later on i think you're much much more comfortable in terms of the the tools that are available to cousins that they have, whereas obviously if they don't trade Stephon Diggs and they have to take a receiver later on, I think you're much, much more comfortable in terms of the tools that are available to Cousins. All right, last way to reimagine the offseason. Pick one of these two, whichever one intrigues you more. Trading Harrison Smith to make the cap space and then maybe drafting a safety or trading Delvin Cook so you don't sign him to a contract extension.

Which one, because I'm assuming that that extension will be coming very soon, since they didn't draft a running back or sign anybody else, like I'm pretty sure you only got one guy. So which one is more interesting that was sort of on the table for discussion? You could justify either one of those two because of Harrison Smith's age and the whole running back thing with whether they're worth it, worth it to pay and looking forward at the cap um so which one of those things that did not happen would have been really intriguing to you if it did I think I think the Harrison Smith

one is more intriguing to talk about because if it's Evan Cook it's going to be stuff that you and I have already talked about yeah running backs they don't matter they could have grabbed one they probably would have overdrafted one in the second round. We would have been excited about, you know, J.K. Dobbins or whatever, right? But I think with Harrison Smith, you have to confront the fact that in the Zimmer era, they just haven't placed any draft priority, even when it was Anderson Dale placed next to him. They haven't placed

that much draft priority on safeties. They've always been 6th and 7th rounders. You know, free agency, they haven't been particularly interested in grabbing a safety to pair with him. The fact that Anthony Harris developed into the kind of player that he is, is super intriguing. And I think we're closer to what the Vikings value safeties as at the combine, when Zimmer says they just kind of don't matter that much, than we are at this point in the offseason when the Vikings, I think,

might have the highest paid safety deal in the NFL, which is fine. They've got also the best safety deal in the NFL. So it's not as if they're in this weird bind. But you're at this weird conundrum where Zimmer loves defensive backs, but doesn't think safeties are really the answer there. The Vikings' history at the position involves not that much investment unless you've got an actual all-pro in Harrison Smith, and so you trade him away. You have to have this discussion about whether or not he's going to hit a cliff soon, and I think at his age, it's a fair and reasonable

discussion to have, and now you're thinking about pairing Anthony Harris, who now you have to sign potentially to a long-term extension as opposed to Dangle as trade bait, or worry about whether or not he's going to sign his franchise tag, which there wasn't really much of a worry, but they did have to announce it because it didn't happen for a while.

Now you have to worry about what kind of safeties are available in the draft, because this was one of the most diverse safety drafts in a while. Like, you take a look at the receiver draft, it's deep, that's great, but the safety draft, you've got all kinds of different kinds of safeties. Guys that you'd never want in the box, like Grant Delp, who can't tackle. Guys that are really great in the box and maybe great as slot guys, maybe you don't want a center fielder, like Jeremy Chin. Guys that were former corners that you could maybe use uh on the outside or or or deep center field like Ashton Davis um you know there are all kinds of safeties in this draft that could do all kinds of different things uh and uh you know that's something I was

intrigued by because of the rumors about about trading Anthony Harris but I think pairing somebody with Harrison Smith is a much different conversation than pairing somebody with Anthony Harris and replacing Harrison Smith. And of course, the fun pick, again, we keep on talking about guys' connections to Minnesota. The fun pick would have been Antoine Winfield. I don't think that would have been the right pick if you trade away Harrison Smith. I think the right pick probably would have been somebody like Xavier McKinney who can do everything if you're going to replace Harrison Smith

maybe somebody who can also rush the passer like McKinney who Alabama asked everything of and if that's a good indication of how good a player is which seems reasonable to me then maybe that's the guy you want to pick in the second round and maybe that's the pick you trade for Harrison Smith is probably not worth a first round pick despite how talented he is just because of that age problem and the fact

that his contract is reflective of his value and so you can't force a team to give up additional value to get that uh and then you have a conversation do i want grant lp do i want xavier mckinney do i want antoine winfield do i want uh ashton dav Davis and I think the Vikings probably go with Xavier McKinney because they ask their safeties to do so many things and he actually can do a lot of those things. I think that our feeling about the defense in general for what to expect in 2020 would have been a lot different if Harrison Smith was gone too because the expectation now I still think there's going to be a lot of bumps in the road. They play some excellent quarterbacks along the way. You've got Brady, you've got Breeze, you've got Deshaun Watson.

If Matt Stafford's healthy, he's usually pretty good. You've still got to face washed-up Aaron Rodgers and so forth. And whatever drama happens there, you know that at least at Lambeau, he's going to give you a tough time. So I would have been looking at it as maybe you're the 23rd best defense in the NFL this year if you don't have Harrison Smith and you've got rookie corners or corners without any experience and you don't have Everson Griffin anymore. I mean, you'll be able to stop the run, but I don't know about the pass.

But Harrison is such a huge part of the defensive success. It's almost like even when your corners were struggling last year, Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris were making the defense so much better that if Jeff Gladney is just okay this year, if he just holds his own, then you're probably going to have still a pretty good pass defense because Harrison Smith can do so many things, is so instinctual, is so well prepared, and then is so good at hiding what he's going to do. How many times have we seen quarterbacks drop back and go,

oh, that's not, nope, and I'm sacked. I mean, not to say that Daniil Hunter isn't as great as Daniil Hunter is, but all these things are interconnected, right? It certainly helps when quarterbacks are confused at U.S. Bank Stadium and then Daniil Hunter suddenly ends up on a tight end somehow and blows right through them and sacks the quarterback. So it would have been a major, major adjustment, though I do think it was justifiable considering kind of where they were

with a lot of the older players. So I can, I think, both look at keeping Harrison Smith as really good for them for this year, and he should be good next year too. But also, if they had moved on, I would have said, you know what, not crazy. Not crazy. This has been not crazy, but it's they had moved on, I would have said, you know what? Not crazy. Not crazy. This has been not crazy, but it's been fun, Arif. Great segue. Yeah.

Thank you. Yeah. No, this has been a ton of fun. Yeah, I think that if they do commit to that kind of move, I think you just have to think about the Vikings as a team that is just willing to kind of develop for 2021 instead of play for 2020. That changes the conversation about the extension for Kirk Cousins, too, and whether or not that makes sense.

Maybe they trade Harrison Smith and don't extend Kirk Cousins, and now you're thinking about, hey, the Vikings are blowing things up, but they've got tons of draft capital to do it. In that case, you probably also trade Stephon Diggs. I don't know. Now you've got an extra draft capital to do it. In that case, you probably also trade Stephon Diggs. I don't know. Now you've got an extra second and an extra first. Obviously, they used that first on a player that we're already familiar with,

but that second, maybe they draft a different corner in the second round, and they draft a safety in the third round, right? I think there's a lot of things that change because of it. Maybe they grab Jalen Johnson, and then in the third round, they grab I don't know, Jalen Hawkins or whoever. There are tons of safeties. It doesn't matter. Really? Yeah.

Last thing before I let you go. So all things considered, now that we have reimagined the offseason entirely and looked at different worlds of what they could have done, how did you come out on this offseason? I mean, you can give it an A, B, C, D if you want, or 1 through 10. What way would you evaluate the offseason as a whole now that it is more or less done? I guess a B-. I don't know.

I understand a lot of the moves that the Vikings made. I actually think it was better for them to keep Anthony Harris. I disagree with the combine assessment, and I agree with the team's actual move to keep him. He plays a really important position. You take a look again at PFFs like wins above replacement and safeties like the second most important defensive position. So I appreciate that they were able to do that despite their own best efforts. And I really just kind of wish they made an additional move in free agency. That is my biggest concern because I think the way that they handled the first and second round of the draft, I thought was really good.

I think there were a ton of potential pitfalls for them. They ended up grabbing a bunch of players there that I really liked. And you're really intrigued with Cameron Dantzler. I'm really intrigued with James Lynch. I think that the fact that they had 15 picks in the draft, that's an analytics guy's dream. Take as many shots as possible. We don't know anything about these players. So I thought that was pretty smart.

I thought that they addressed positions really well there. I just think that if they had made one or two more moves in free agency, potentially to grab the three technique that they weren't able to grab in the draft, you know, something along those lines, that I think would have pushed it up from a B- to a B-B+. And I also, again, I don't love the contract structure for Cousins or anything like that either. And so it's difficult for me to give them an A but I think that given the difficulties that they place themselves in uh with uh with previous off seasons just in terms of the cap that they had

available to them the draft resources they had available to them uh if we presume that they were forced to trade Stefan Diggs and say that their hand was forced. They got a really great return for him, and they deserve kind of credit for that. I think that they handled it well. I would have preferred to keep Stefan Diggs just because this is a team that is built more to win now than it is to win in the future. But for the most part, yeah, B, B-.

For me, when I say that, people might think of it as a slight, but a C is average, right? They did better than a C+. They got a B-. There were a lot of things I thought they could have done a lot better, and I think that they missed a ton of opportunities, but I think that they did better than the average team in a similar situation.

I think they put themselves in position to be relevant still without taking a massive step back and then be very, very good in 2021. And I think that was about as good as you could have done. I mean, maybe we could do more radical things like you and I probably would with our video game teams. You know, if they put us in charge and we would either be really great or blow it up hilariously, it would have been one or the other. As a real front office person, Rick Spielman can't exactly think that way.

So I think they did a good job of towing the line to make sure that they will still be good in 2020. They didn't blow it up. They didn't send everybody to the moon. But in 2021, because of all the draft picks that they had, I think that there's four or five guys that were drafted past the second round that have a chance to be very good players down the road eventually on this team. And that's something that keeps you relevant year in and year out. And this team in the Mike Zimmer era has been terrific about doing that.

So Arif Hasan, you can read all of his work at The Athletic. You're also a podcaster. You are a great route runner, as I saw the video one time, running routes in a parking lot. So a do-it-all person and a must-follow on Twitter, Arif Aslan. Thanks for coming on, man. Yeah, thanks for having me. Thank you.