Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Replacing Stefon Diggs and the most interesting receivers the Vikings face

Episode Date: June 15, 2020

We also look at the five most intriguing receivers that the Vikings will go up against this year, including Chris Godwin, DJ Chark, Allen Robinson, AJ Brown and Tyler Lockett.  Make sure you check out Matt Harmon's work by going to ReceptionPerception.com  And read Matthew Coller's Vikings coverage at PurpleInsider.substack.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Check it out. Subscribe. The Compound on the Blue Wire Podcast Network. All right. Welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar with you and joining me, for any of you who used to listen to the old show on Score North, you have heard this guy before with his in-depth wide receiver breakdowns and much, much more. If you follow him on Twitter, Matt Harmon from Yahoo Sports.

What's going on, Matt? Hey, appreciate you having me, and I'm so happy. Honestly, it's better to be on your show now that you're on your own. You're making it happen. I'm really proud of you, man, and I'm happy for all your success. And, I mean, it's the only thing I'm happy about because, you know, now we've got to usually get together and talk about, man, isn't Stefan Diggs so good, great Vikings receiver.

Now we've got to talk about some other topics now that he's been shown the door. I know. That was our yearly thing. Once a year, we get together and we marvel at your numbers that you come up with from Reception Perception, where you study all of the wide receivers' routes. I just tell people right now where they can get it, the Ultimate Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Go to your Twitter. You can find it there. It's a great place to get it. But an amazing amount of detail for all things fantasy football related. But the thing that always popped out to me was you would tweet out some of these reception

perception numbers where you studied routes, you studied success rates against different types of coverages, and Stefan Diggs would always pop way off the screen. And since he's been traded, they drafted Jefferson, we kind of all moved on, and now we've got a Delvin Cook holdout and all sorts of other things in this world that have made us think about things not related to Stefan Diggs' trade. But let's go back to that. When Stefan Diggs was traded to Buffalo, what was your general reaction? Yeah, I feel like both of us are on the same page.

We just thought it would never actually happen because this is such a good player. As you mentioned, reception perception is the methodology that I use to track wide receiver route running. I've been doing it since 2014. Essentially what I do is over an eight-game sample for NFL players, I go in and chart every single route that they run and measure how often they get open, whether it's first man, press, zone, by each individual route type. Because wide receiver, and I think Diggs is a great example of this,

and actually it's funny, I got to sit down with him at the Super Bowl in January, which feels like a thousand years ago right now. Not the least bit because, you know, he was also a member of the Vikings back then still. This was before he was traded. But he and I had a conversation about, you know, wide receiver, we can judge them by stats, but it's such a misleading way to do it because, you know, everything, all the other variables go into

how wide receivers accrue production, whether it's the quarterback actually getting them the ball accurately or the system deciding how often they're going to get the ball, where they're going to get the ball on the field, whether they're lining up at the slot, how wide at X or flanker, whether they're running short routes or deep routes. There's so many other factors that influence wide receiver production, and what reception perception is trying to do is to go in there and decide,

like, remove all those outside variables and just isolate wide receiver performance. Because the only thing that they can really control, as Stefan Diggs would tell you, is the only thing they can control is how often they go out there and get open on all of their routes, how well they're running those routes. And, of course, when the ball comes their way, there's contested catches, you know, yards after the catch, whatever. But before the ball is thrown, the only thing they can control is, are they going to get open, are they going to run a good route?

And Diggs is, if he's not the best route runner in the NFL, he is one of the best. In 2019 in reception perception, Diggs finished top 10 with a 76.5% success rate versus man coverage and a career best against zone and press coverage. So, I mean, this is a guy who's continuing to just take his craft to the next level. And to show how good he's been over the long haul, this is a guy who for three straight seasons has finished over the 93rd percentile in success rate versus man coverage. So, I think he's an elite wide receiver,

and he's certainly without question an elite separator and elite route runner. And that's a very tough force to lose from your offense, no matter if you have another great wide receiver in Adam Thielen, who plays a position a little bit differently, but I do think is still a very good player and a really good separator. Is this tough to lose the guy who's going to separate at all levels of the field, dictate coverages, and to replace him with just a rookie and then some kind of veteran free agents here and there?

It's going to be really tough, I think, for the Vikings to replicate that production. But maybe they don't believe that they have to. So I don't know how big of a basketball guy you are, but around Minnesota, we started to talk about whether Jimmy Butler was right in wanting to get out of Minnesota. And I think that we're eventually going to have this same sort of conversation with Stefan Diggs, because at the crux of the issue from everyone I've talked to,

it was that Stefan Diggs believed, and I'm sure he's aware of your numbers because he pays attention to stuff like that. Oh, yeah. I've also told him directly several times. So we've talked about it. He knows. Yeah.

And I'm sure that it's not lost on him either that other wide receivers who come into the league say they study Stefan Diggs when it comes to his route running. So it's not just him guessing that he's really good. He understands this. And at the middle of the issue with him wanting to leave Minnesota is that he really was not the centerpiece of the offense. It was more of Delvin Cook. It was more of a run-first offense,

and I believe they were in the bottom three or four in terms of just how many pass attempts they threw last season. And I think at some point we will be saying, you know what, Stephon Diggs was actually right right that they should have thrown in the ball more often because he believes that he's a superstar wide receiver and he wants to put up more than 63 catches and also believes that passing wins you football games right yeah I think I think that's correct because, again, you can want to establish the run, and that's certainly your prerogative if that's your goal. And I think if you do have a really good running game,

I love the way that they threw off play action. I love some of the designs of that offense. I think Kevin Stefanski is going to actually really help out some of those Browns receivers that were just asked to do way too much last year. So I think he has the right approach in terms of calling passing plays. But, again, it's tough to create passing production on a year-to-year basis. I would look at a team like the L.A. Rams as a perfect example. I don't think they have ever had a talent on their team that's in the same galaxy

as a team, as a guy like Stephon Diggs. And, frankly, I don't even think they've had anybody that's in the same galaxy as a team, as a guy like Stephon Diggs. And frankly, I don't even think they've had anybody that's close to, like, an Adam Thielen type player. I think he's better than all of those range receivers that they run out there, as good as those players are as a collective unit. But Sean McVay was great about scheming players open, you know, whether it was Robert Woods or especially Cooper Tuck.

It's just tough when you go out there and you don't have a guy, again, who can separate on his own at all levels and who can dictate those coverages because of that. It's just tough on a year-over-year basis to continually scheme your guys open. And having a player like Diggs just takes you to a whole other level in terms of what you can do as an offense. And I do agree. I think that they didn't get the best out of that in Minnesota,

and that's probably why he wanted out. There's probably other reasons, too. But I definitely think running an offense through a player like Stephon Diggs is part of how you win football games. Obviously, there's a lot of other factors there, too. But it's just such a unique advantage, and I don't know that they took advantage of it completely in Minnesota. And we'll see what happens in Buffalo, where actually conditions are sort of similar if you think about it,

because not only is he going from a team – he's going through another team where there's another great receiver. I think John Brown is a top-level receiver, too. In reception perception, he's another one of these guys that continually finishes above the 93rd percentile I think you could argue that the Bills have one of if not the best pair of pure separating receivers in the NFL right now so there's going to be some competition there for targets sure but there's also a run heavy approach there in Buffalo they were top seven run play percentage just like the Vikings were last year and of course there's a quarterback question I think the question is very different than it was in Minnesota obviously obviously. I think, as we know, Stephon Diggs probably wanted Kirk Cousins to let it rip a little more often than he did

when Diggs felt he was open downfield instead of taking some of those layup plays. Josh Allen's going to let it rip. It's just, is it going to get there when it's supposed to get there or get where he wants it to be? So it will really be interesting to see how his production, how his usage changes in in buffalo because they look like a team that is really ready to take off as a passing offense it's just is that quarterback gonna be good enough to have them take that next step well it's really interesting about buffalo is that they're gonna find out if you can't play with these receivers if you can't play with beasley who could get open in the slot brown and digs on the outside then you can't play with Beasley, who could get open in the slot, Brown and Diggs on the outside, then you can't play.

Like, you're just not going to be good enough. And then it would become one of the very interesting destinations for a possible other quarterback who ends up as a free agent next year or whose team is looking for a trade or something like that, because we now do that in the NFL, where quarterbacks end up in different spots. And I would have never picked Tom Brady for Tampa Bay. So, you know, maybe somebody else would want to be there if Josh Allen doesn't work out. Last thing on the digs angle, the first time I ever heard you talk about wide receivers was on a podcast with Matt Waldman where you guys were looking back at Laquan Treadwell

and why some guys don't work out when they're coming from college. I know that maybe you didn't study Justin Jefferson, but on a bigger just sort of standpoint, what is the toughest thing in your mind for receivers coming out of college to go to the NFL and be successful? Or what skill would you say translates the best? I mean, I think the skill that translates the best is technique. I think when you look at guys who win at the college level

and they separate at different levels, that's, you know, of course that's part of the equation, but a lot of players get schemed open in college a ton. Defenses are not the same as they are in the NFL. It's very hard to, especially, like, I think a coach like Frank Reich is a great example of someone who's highlighted this for the Colts several times. He talks about the hardest thing to measure at a college receiver is, I think a coach like Frank Reich is a great example of someone who's highlighted this for the Colts several times.

He talks about the hardest thing to measure at a college receiver is can they get off first press coverage because you just don't see a lot of teams in college press. You don't see a lot of tight physical man-to-man coverage, and that is the most predominant usage in the NFL. You're going to see receivers, especially guys that you want to play on the outside and be your number one X receiver, they're going to get jammed on maybe 30 to 40 percent of their routes. They're going to face man coverage 60 to 80 percent of the time at the most. I mean, that's what they have to do, and you just don't see them operating in that environment very often in college. And a player like Treadwell is a good example of this. I mean, he certainly faced some press man coverage, but he was a guy

who only lined up on one side of the field. And when you're constricting a player's assignment to something that small, it just doesn't represent the NFL level at all. Because even a guy who plays on one side of the field a majority of the time, we're talking about maybe 40 to 50 percent. NFL receivers have to move left to right into the slot they got to play flanker they got to play x it's just not very it's just not very similar to an nfl assignment at all when you see guys do that because you just think about the way your body moves you're timing things to just break right all the time as opposed to breaking right and left. And it's just like adding an entire new layer. It's like going from 101 to 201 without even anything in between.

And I think that transition makes it tough. Now, a guy like Justin Jefferson is interesting. I did take some time to look at his college film back before the NFL draft. I think he is that technician. I think he's much more ready to play right away. You know, of course, we have to say everything this offseason in COVID-adjusted terms. Like, when is he going to get into the building? When is he actually going to get, you know, with the team entirely?

We have no idea. But in a theoretical thing where all the things are equal, I do think he has a much better chance to be an instant impact player because he knows how to run routes. He's run a lot of routes from the slot, but I think he can a much better chance to be an instant impact player because he knows how to run routes. He's run a lot of routes from the slot, but I think he can also play a little bit outside too because he has good clean release moves and the limited reps that you see him against press coverage. So I like him as a technician to be an impact player much, much more than Treadwell was

coming out of college. I think that Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen make your point perfectly about how many different things you have to do and how valuable that is when you have guys who can do them. In 2016, Stefan Diggs was a slot receiver. Right. And last year, he is a pure outside receiver, barely ever in the slot, and he's a deep receiver. But in 2018, he was a short receiver where he only averaged 10 yards a catch.

So you have to kind of be a chameleon if you're going to be one of the better receivers in the NFL. And it will be interesting to see how quickly the transition can happen without the OTAs, without the minicamps. But I agree with you that Justin Jefferson and Laquan Treadwell just do not have a whole heck of a lot in common, except for the contested catches part, which, you know, is a thing that sometimes it translates, sometimes it doesn't. But getting open usually translates. And I think about my draft coverage personally as almost like text mining, because when I

try to, you know, break down the film, I can pick out a couple of things, but I'm not a scout. So I'm looking for what I know translates. And when you hear a receiver's a technician, when you hear that they separate, like Michael Pittman, for example, is a guy that I looked at and said, huh, that's really interesting kind of how he's painted, a high IQ player, route technician. I think there's a better chance that guy works out than, hey, this guy's very tall and fast.

So anyway, Matt, I made a list of the five most interesting, not best, but most interesting wide receivers on the Vikings schedule. And I want to break them down with you, starting with A.J. Brown. Because I don't think that Vikings fans know a whole lot about Tennessee other than that Ryan Tannehill was suddenly the best quarterback in the NFL last year at complete random. But A.J. Brown was one of the league leaders in yards after catch, had over 1,000 yards, pro football focus,

graded him as a top 10 wide receiver what do we know about this guy i mean what what a badass like i hope i hope i can say that on your show you can yes total badass of a player aj brown and i think the thing that i find most fascinating about him like he's a guy who i loved coming out of college for that 2019 class however like most people i thought he was going to slide into this big slot receiver type role, sort of like what Adam Thielen's played in the past. Or a good example is a lot of people compared him to like a Juju Smith-Schuster. Again, that big slot receiver that plays like a bully. And he certainly came with that bully mindset, no doubt about it.

But I thought it was awesome to see him go out there and really play that number one outside X receiver role that is the most difficult receiver position to play in the NFL. You see him lining up outside on 88.8% of his reception perception charted snaps. He was facing man coverage on 63% of his routes, 31% he's up at press. I mean, that is the profile of a Stephon Diggs number one type receiver or an A.J. Green, something like that. And he crushed, while having that assignment, posting an 85th percentile success rate versus man coverage. And when you consider his yak ability, how quickly he can get open on slants,

digs, outs, comebacks, you name it. I mean, this is the guy I think that does profile as a number one receiver for a long time in the NFL. And he's not – I see some people compare him to, like, Anquan Bolden because he's tough and he's physical at the catch point. But don't underrate what a good separator this guy is, especially considering last year we saw him make big play after big play while playing that very difficult assignment as a rookie. Instant translation and I think instant

stardom for a player like A.J. Brown. I don't know if we're going to talk about any of these other 2019 rookies from last year on the Vikings schedule, but man, I mean, I know you guys faced Terry McLaurin last year, and it just goes to show this class of receivers, the 2019 group, I think is just layered with a ton of guys who are going to become star-level players, and A.J. Brown is certainly right there at the top of the list. Before we get back to the conversation, got to take a second to thank our sponsors, SodaStick. Go to SodaStick.com to get your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. If you have not seen yet the Can't Stop the Feelin' hat, you've got to check it out.

It's part of an official partnership with Adam Feelin'. If you need to get some new hats for summer, they're having their annual summer hat deal right now. Get 30% off select hats when buying two or more. SodaStick.com to shop that is s-o-t-a-s-t-i-c-k.com 30% off select hats no code needed discount automatically apply to checkout deal ends june 20th it's been fascinating to me in recent years how many second and third rounders who slip a little bit under the radar for one reason or another, whether it's the combine or they're not the freak athlete, but they end up dropping a little bit and then becoming successful receivers.

On the yards after catch, he averaged almost nine yards after catch and 20 yards total. The 20 yards per catch total is like right out of the 80s when they used to just throw it downfield and that was it. How sustainable is the yards after catch, do you think? I mean, I feel like, yes, it should be considered a skill, but is that a skill that translates from year to year, do you think, with someone like A.J. Brown? I think it can translate year to year, but not to that level.

That's something that we probably won't see because there are certainly times where you see a guy that, you know, they make one absolutely insane play. I think of Juju Smith-Schuster's had like two 97 yard touchdowns over the last two years. Davis Maddock, I was on his podcast recently. He made a good point that we might look at Juju's efficiency numbers,

you know, from a per catch yards per target yards after catch, whatever you name it. If in those first two seasons, he doesn't have two 97 yard touchdowns where he's just skating through the open field. So it is one thing you have to remember with statistics like that. Inevitably, they're going to regress to some sort of need. But I think Brown definitely brings, like you said, that skill to the equation.

Think of a guy like Golden Tate, who's consistently one of the best yards after catch, yards after catch per reception type of receiver, and I think Brown could be at that level. But a good example, too, is DJ Moore from his first year. He posted absolutely absurd yards after catch figures. It wasn't quite the case last year, but he was still very productive because while he maintained those yards after catch skills, lost a little bit in the statistics,

he made up for it by becoming a better route runner versus press and getting off the line of scrimmage easy on slants and digs. And I think Brown is actually already ahead of a player like Moore in terms of his pure route running and separation ability. Yeah, and when you look at, you know, regression and things like that, always to me it's explosive plays, even if it's for a running back. If you led the league in 20 plus yard runs, kind of unlikely that you're going to do it again next year. So what was your kind of base level? That's what we should look at. Now, Tyler Lockett was next on my list. Now, Vikings fans know who Tyler Lockett is. It seems like the Vikings play at Seattle every single year, and there's always something that goes super weird and wrong. But most of the focus is always just on Russell Wilson and how excellent

he is. But Tyler Lockett has taken over that Doug Baldwin spot as his go-to guy. And I remember seeing at one point last year that Wilson's quarterback rating throwing to Lockett was like perfect, like 158 or something. So explain Tyler Lockett. This guy is completely under the radar when it comes to receivers who get promoted. Yeah, I think he's underrated, criminally underrated, really. You know, he's the guy that in reception perception back in 2016, his rookie season, all of the metrics that I tracked pointed to him eventually becoming a star. I mean, he was already at that level, running routes, separating cleanly.

And then so many things happened between 2016 and 2017. You know, there were injuries a lot of times. He just really hadn't broken out. You know, people on Twitter are starting to dog me for calling Tyler Lockett this big breakout receiver. But then in 2018, it started to happen. He had 10 touchdowns that year, and I don't think he's lost pace at all. In fact, I think he's actually getting better.

He had his best season of reception perception to date with a 77.5% success rate first man coverage score. He's really good against press, one of the best receivers. He was number five in terms of success rate first man coverage last year among all the receivers charted. So I think he's not just a deep threat either. He started out as this kick return specialist, but he's always been a great route runner. And now I think he's getting that mind meld with Russell Wilson down, much like you said Doug Baldwin had. And let's be clear, too, DK Metcalf, another guy who came into the draft last year, I love this player. I think he is going to be Dez Bryant.

I think that was my comp coming out of the draft for DK, and I think he was exactly that player last year. Look, the Seahawks kept things simple for DK. He mostly ran slants and nine routes. That actually accounted for over 50% of his target routes and reception perception. But again, he crushed in that role. He finished over the 85th percentile in success

for a first-man coverage. I think these two players, we talked about Diggs and Brown, I think Metcalf and Lockett are also in the conversation for the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, up there with Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. These two guys, I think Metcalf and Lockett are also in the conversation for the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, up there with Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. These two guys, I think, are super dangerous, and I think they're going to be the main focus of Seattle's offense this year.

I love Lockett. I love Metcalf. It's going to be a tough group to defend. It's interesting, too, the dynamic between those two. You have someone who can do so many different things and someone who's one-dimensional but if you're a number two receiver and one-dimensional just do that good thing all the time and you could be pretty successful with the Vikings this is a team that's a game particularly in a team that I think is going to match up really tough for the Vikings with their young cornerbacks they've mostly kept Russell Wilson in check for the recent games that they've played with Mike Zimmer's defense,

but this one could be a little different. Now, the next receiver on my list is Allen Robinson. Can we just, like, I don't know, say a prayer for Allen Robinson? This guy has gone from Blake Bortles to Mitch Trubisky to possibly Nick Foles here. I was just watching Week 17 film the other day looking at Chris Boyd, who could emerge as a starting corner potentially for the Vikings. And a couple of times, Allen Robinson, one-on-one with Chris Boyd, just smoked him to the point where Chris Boyd was out of the picture on the film. So if Allen Robinson had Russell Wilson or someone good as his quarterback, what would his numbers be? I think we'd all agree that

he's the top five receiver in the NFL. And he was elite last year. And obviously, he was productive, right? He caught 98 passes in a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense. But that's great. But I think reception perception shows it even better. He was number one in success rate versus man coverage in 2019, right up there at the 98th percentile all time. 79.3% success rate versus man coverage in 2019, right up there at the 98th percentile all-time, 79.3% success rate versus man coverage, 83.7% against press. That's at the 97th percentile. I mean, it was one of the best receiver seasons

in reception perception history, again, dating back to 2014, separated at all levels of the field, deep, short, intermediate, great uncontested catches with an 85% catch rate. I mean, there's nothing he can't do. I mean, he's an elite number one receiver, and he's a guy that reception perception has been touting that he could get to this level. Back in 2014, I wrote the article that he was going to have the breakout season

in 2015. He went and had that 14-touchdown season, was a monster in fantasy. But he's gotten so much better since then. He's not just a guy that's winning on downfield routes in tight coverage because his quarterback is Blake Bortles, was just willing to throw it up there. This is a pure technician of a player now. And I agree with you.

If he was in any other offense, he would be absolutely crushing it in terms of number-wise. More people would know about him. Everybody would be drafted in the first two rounds of fantasy leagues. But, yeah, it's just a crime what's happened to him quarterback-wise. I mean, even dating back to college, he's playing with Christian Hackenberg. It's unbelievable what this guy has dealt with at quarterback. And, you know, Nick Foles is a very ecosystem-dependent player, but we'll see if he can actually even just get to league average,

because that would be a huge win for Allen Robinson. And I think, too, the Bears also have Anthony Miller, who's another player that reception perception is high on. I won't give away all the details there. If you want to look for a late-round breakout guy in fantasy, definitely get into the ultimate draft kit, receptionperception.com, or use the hashtag receptionperception on Twitter, because Miller is definitely a guy that reception perception is very high on as a breakout player. And just another receiver like that would help make Nick Foles so much more competent to the fact that it would allow Allen Robinson to have that elite statistical season.

And if there's something that's going to keep Vikings fans up at night, it's Nick Foles with good receivers. And, I mean, Chicago's offensive line is not like Philadelphia's was when they beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship, so he won't have that time to throw. But I don't think that Jacksonville really gave him any circumstance to be, even like you said, a league average type of quarterback, where playing with Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller,

that might give him that shot and Tariq Cohen and what he could do out of the backfield as a receiver. I've got another podcast coming out soon, Breaking Down the Bears and why we kind of have discounted them. But maybe that's not the best idea at the moment. So I guess we'll see on how Nick Foles adapts. But poor Allen Robinson, man, we should just like we should just add more receptions to his statistical page to make it more clear how good he actually is uh grading on grading on a quarterback curve for sure yeah that's right that's exactly that's your next your next project is on the curve um now i if you gave me um a bunch of receivers standing in front of me 10 random receivers plucked off nfl rosters and said one of these guys is dj charke which one is it like i don't know i i'm not sure i have no idea

i couldn't pick him out of a lineup but i see that he played well last year with gardner minshu and nick foals tell me what the vikings are up against with dj charke because i know nothing about him yeah charke's really interesting because unlike most of these guys who have come in the league and they start having success at wide receiver right away, it's like all those guys last year that I mentioned, McLaurin, Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, all of them, Debo Samuel even, they come in and they show some instant impact right away, and we're like, okay, they're going to be very good.

Even in that 2018 class, Michael Gallup showed us something, D.J. Moore, Cortland Sutton showed us a little bit. DJ Tark, honestly, kind of lost his rookie year and wasn't playing very often. You know, everybody in fantasy every year has their favorite Jags sleeper receiver. You know, Edie Westbrook, Keelan Cole, Marquise Lee, they're always trying to make somebody happen. But, like, no one was talking about DJ Tark last year, despite the fact that he was a second-round pick in the NFL draft, because he

just didn't do anything his rookie year. But he came in right away and was awesome. I mean, he had that 1,000-yard season, like you mentioned. In reception perception, I don't know that he's quite to the level of some of these elite outside number one wide receivers. You see him post a 69% success rate versus man coverage. That's above the league average. It's about the 58th percentile, but he separates really well on a variety of routes. He's not just a deep threat player on those nine routes that he was at LSU in college. He separates well on the curl, the dig, the slant. He's got good numbers on two outbreaking routes too, like the comeback and the out route, even the flat. I mean, he has a pretty impressive route chart.

I think what's really cool about chart is Jay Gruden, the new offensive coordinator down there in Jacksonville, is talking about using him more in the slot. And I think that could be a really good move for him because I don't think, again, I don't think he's a true number one receiver that's going to be breaking a ton of press-type man coverage on the outside. But if you can get him sort of in that adam phelan mold a guy who's not just a bunny hop slot receiver like a julian edelman or something like that get him inside and use him as a weapon i think that could be a pretty dangerous proposition for the jags offense before we get back to the

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BetOnline, your online wagering experts. I keep thinking about what in the NFL season could just be mind-bending because every year there's something that we look at a team or a player and we go, oh, man, never saw that one coming that so-and-so would go from terrible to elite or first to worst or whatever it might be. Jacksonville being legitimately competitive in that division and maybe even making the playoffs, because the division is so won so wonky seems possible if Gardner Minshew takes a step forward and someone like DJ Chark does too yeah but they could also be like the worst team I know that's what's so weird about them it's like

you could totally see it because the division is so strange but they're also awful yeah like their defense has been completely remade. Leonard Fournette is not making it happen in the backfield. You know, they wanted to trade him this year and they got no takers, which is not a surprise. I think Gardner Minshew showed enough that he can, he's definitely an NFL quarterback. Like he might be a long-term backup, a high-end number two or a low-end number one. And I do think he's a good fit with Jay Gruden. I've always been pretty high on Jay Gruden as a play caller and as an offensive designer. I think they could do some fun things on offense this year.

They also drafted LaVisca Chenault, who's a really interesting, unique weapon. He could be sort of that speed slot receiver too, alternate that role with DJ Chark, and they've got something cooking there. But it's just, again, outside of a couple of interesting passing game players, there's a lot and a lot of questions on this roster. Yeah, that would be one of the most shocking things that could happen is if Jacksonville was somehow good. Also, real quick before we move on to our last one,

over under four and a half teams that Gardner Minshew plays for in his career. I feel that's perfect, right? I feel like he could be the next Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'll go under just because it's safe, but I do think he could be a guy who bounces around the league, especially the later portion of his career, once he's into his 30s. Because, again, these guys like Gardner Minshew, when they show that they can play, they'll have a job forever.

He could have a job until he's like 38 years old, just kicking it around the league as a backup. You know, we'll be shown by that point, I'll have some gray in the mustache, or maybe you won't even have the mustache anymore. I think that's, I think he's like, he can easily have a Ryan Fitzpatrick type career where he's just played for every single team in the league. But again, I'll go under just because I think it's the safer number. Yeah, there might be like a Matt Castle comp in there where someone makes him their starter and then he wins 10 games and and then it's just awful but still keep getting backup jobs all right last last one is Chris Godwin who now instead of playing with a quarterback who

threw 30 interceptions gets to play with Tom Brady or whatever is left of Tom Brady uh Chris Godwin strikes me as kind of the guy who is in the slot more often and can do a lot of things out of there, but isn't necessarily the pure separator like we're talking about with the Stephon Diggs. But maybe your numbers show different. What do you make of him? Yeah, I've always been really high on Chris Godwin. Back when I was doing reception perception on college players, I think he was similar to Justin Jefferson, right? Like such a great technician. But Godwin played almost exclusively outside at college,

and he was awesome on contested catches and awesome on short and intermediate routes. So I don't really think that he's just a slot receiver. I think, again, he's sort of – it's different. You talk about Thielen's a guy who can play inside the slot but it's not that he has to play inside it just he provides such a unique mismatch advantage when you go into the slot because you're going to be running against those smaller corners you're oftentimes going to be facing zone coverage with linebackers and safeties covering you and a guy like Godwin

is just too good to be doing that he was actually an awesome separator last year in his breakout season, posting an 88th percentile success rate versus man coverage, a really strong success rate against zone. Again, he's facing that a lot inside. And, yeah, again, even though he plays in the slot, he was awesome against press coverage. He had an 80.4% success rate. That was one of the top marks in the NFL last year.

So I think he's a player that could play outside, but you're just getting such a unique mismatch advantage in the slot. And I think that does line up with what Tom Brady can do at this point in his career. You know, you look at Godwin's best routes in reception perception, he can certainly get vertical, but the dig and the slant are his two best routes in reception perception. And I think Brady can still throw pretty well short intermediate over the middle of the field i think that's why godwin can still not maybe not post the same numbers that he posted last year but can certainly get pretty close because of that fit

with brady in that level of field yeah that's what i was going to say is that i think that godwin's pure numbers probably go down because his team isn't trailing by 20 and throwing every single time right um every time it's funny like oh winston led the league in yards all right because they were losing all the time it's the classic john kitten of 4 000 yards but um how much better is tom brady now with his situation than he was in new england well i think this is again it's all covet adjusted terms because i think in a normal offseason, Brady would get to coalesce with a guy like Godwin and Evans and see what O.J. Howard has to offer, like get into the program. I think it's going to be very weird to watch all of these Bucs players kind of try to figure it out on the fly because as much as James, I mean, James Swenson is truly frustrating, right? Like he, I mean, they were losing a lot because he threw them into those situations too.

So some of the passing production, you're definitely going to see cutoff because, and I think that's okay. Like these receivers are not going to be as productive as they were last year. The quarterback's not going to throw as many yards, but this is a much better situation. Even if the offensive line isn't as good as it was in New England last year compared to what the Bucs are going to have in 2020, taking a guy like Brady and giving him Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and whatever's left of Gronk and O.J. Howard,

who I think can still play a little bit, that is a massive upgrade from the corpse of Julian Edelman, who Nikhil Harry not figuring it out as a rookie. I mean, we're talking about guys like Jacoby Myers was playing a ton of snaps at one point last year. So this is a huge upgrade for Brady. I just definitely think it's going to take time

for everybody to get on the same page because there could not be a more different quarterback right now between Jameis Winston and Tom Brady in terms of how they approach the position. And I think there's going to be an adjustment on the receivers end there as well I also think that Mohamed Sanu could be the first receiver ever to transition to quarterback at 35 years old like after hey he might be the best quarterback on the Patriots roster right now which like I know I'm not the first person to make that joke but legit

I remember Mike Zimmer talking about how they actually had to game plan against the possibility that Mohamed Sanu would throw passes when they played against them with Atlanta. Alright, last thing for you, and I really appreciate all the time. You've been, you're always very, very giving with it. Adam Thielen, what are

we projecting for Adam Thielen as now the pure number one without Stefan Diggs to take a lot of that attention? Yeah, I mean, Thielen is one of my bigger fantasy buys this year because he just has such an enticing ceiling. Again, the receiver core beyond Thielen is Justin Jefferson and I think a bunch of guys who are just kind of bottom of the roster players. Tajay Sharp is not a consequential addition to me.

I know B.C. Johnson flashed a little bit. I had somebody on Twitter, man, when they traded Stephon Diggs. I know a Viking says, like, I will bet you that he has more than 900 yards this year. I'm like, I will take that bet every single time. No. No, sir. No. I don't think that's going to happen.

But I think it's cool that even though Adam Thielen was hurt for parts of last year, I still think he had a really good season in reception perception. In fact, I think he might have had, honestly, his best season. You look at where he separates on the route tree, slants, the short routes, sure, but he also gets open on nines and posts and comebacks and curls. I mean, the variety of routes he runs, even when he's playing, and he played outside more last year than he did in his previous season. So, again, I don't think Thielen is an option as a true X receiver.

You know, the guy who's going to face press coverage a ton, you want to move him around and take advantage of his skill set. But this guy could have 140 plus targets this year I think that's within his range of outcomes simply because of the lack of competition for looks in that offense and I think he's like a huge fantasy by this year I mean look at Gary Kubiak when he had Andre Johnson and no one else they would just throw to Andre Johnson every play and it would work because he was Andre Johnson. Well, Matt, amazing breakdowns, as always, of wide receivers. And people should really follow you.

You're a fun follow on Twitter, at MattHarmon underscore BYB. And go to ReceptionPerception.com. So much great fantasy stuff there. And I know a lot of people who follow your stuff that just, you know, swear by it. So great stuff. Great to have you on. And I hope we can make it more than a yearly thing now that we could talk about other receivers other than Stefan Diggs. Yeah, well, it'll be our new tradition, you know, to commemorate your new

venture, everything like that. I'm happy to talk receivers anytime. And I really appreciate you having me. It sounds great. Thanks for coming on. And we will talk to you again soon on Purple Insider.