Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Reviewing 2022 predictions (part 2, they get worse but end with a bang)

Episode Date: July 11, 2023

Matthew Coller and Vikings fans go over his 2022 Vikings predictions, part 2. This time there's some serious misses. Geno Smith is going to be pretty unimpressed and Rashod Bateman didn't come through but the Vikings' offensive line did. And one Danielle Hunter take is still up in the air! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

🎵 Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and we are going to continue Predictions Week with part two of going over all of my 2022 predictions. bold predictions for the 2022 season last year and then i just randomly discovered it while i was looking over some things and i was laughing at myself like okay well it did okay here and really bad there and so forth and i thought you know what i think we could have a lot of fun with that and last night if you didn't catch it on the channel you can always go back and look after you're done watching tonight or listening. But we went through the first 25. And let's just say it was a roller coaster, some of the the sharpest takes I've ever had, and some of the biggest misses. And I got a few messages from people still laughing at me this

morning for predicting that the Vikings biggest win of the season would come against the Dallas Cowboys, when it could not have been farther from the truth. So what happened last night, and if you are joining tonight and didn't catch the show last night, was we started to grade each bold prediction from last year on a 1 to 10 scale. How hot was that prediction or how cold was that prediction? And it kind of became like the dunk contest. And I was getting heckled from the comment section and everything else. And of course, if you're watching on YouTube, I'll show, you know, the friendly jabs from commenters as well.

So I want everybody to interact, to grade the hotness of my bold predictions from last year as we go through the second 25 and also just on purple insider in general this is going to be a very fun week if you follow freezing cold takes on twitter the guy who runs the account he's also written a book he is coming on the show to talk about classic old takes exposed the takes that went wrong for the vikings and the rest of the nfl so that's going to be a fun show. Tej Seth is coming on analytics expert to talk about the predictions that the

nerds are making. And then Kalen Kaler from the athletic is going to come on with quarterback predictions later in the week. So it is a packed week of all predictions all the time. I'm also going to be putting out a new 50 bold predictions list that we're going to go over later in the week. And you can get that at the newsletter. If you go to purpleinsider.com, sign up there.

Also, people are leaving their predictions in the chat on the Purple Insider newsletter. So I'd love to see some of you over there if you're not already over there as well. All right. Let's get started here. I really, last night when I saw number 26, I started laughing because I thought like this one should have gone right, but it didn't for some reason. So let me throw it up on the screen here. Number 26, Justin Jefferson will throw at least one touchdown pass. Well, Justin Jefferson did not throw a touchdown pass last year.

He did throw several passes. A couple of them were successful, but not exactly successful in the playoff game when he threw to Kirk Cousins. Don't let that ruin all of them. He had a great pass that went to Adam Thielen at one point, and he certainly showed that he's got a monster arm, and we've seen him in practice do it for years. He can really throw the football. They should still go with this one this year, just not throw it to Kirk Cousins. So I feel like this was a good prediction, even though Justin Jefferson did not throw a touchdown pass last season. And just looking at what I wrote, I wrote Jefferson has

an absurd arm. O'Connell shouldn't throw out the trick plays from last year out of the playbook. I think that O'Connell maybe did throw a lot of the trick plays out from 2021 that worked and brought in his new trick plays that did not work really at all. So I think, you know, using Jefferson as part of the passing game was a good idea. They, they clearly liked to do that and they noticed that Jefferson had that arm, but they did not use it correctly at the biggest time. So one out of 10 grade me on, on all of these in the comment section, I think I'm going to give myself maybe, um, maybe a seven on this one, even though it wasn't right or a six, I'll go a six. That's probably as high as you can go when it wasn't right because Jefferson was used in the passing game. It's just that he didn't get a touchdown

unless I'm forgetting one somewhere. Um, but yeah, I, I think that we can say, Hey, this was a decent prediction. It wasn't exactly right, but it was kind of barking up the right tree and was also responsible for quite a bad moment in the playoff game, uh, from, uh, Z lean here. I think we need an accountability moment for the Derrissaw Pro Bowl prediction from yesterday, since he was robbed of the Pro Bowl and didn't actually make it. I think it was more of a 7 or 8 than a 10. He didn't make it? I thought that he did. Was he like a replacement? Was that it?

Because I thought that he did make the Pro Bowl. Let me look this up. Let's see. Oh, okay. There it is. The first story, Christian Derraw listed among nfl's best players without a pro bowl but i thought that he made it later didn't he make it later after being a snub was he was he one of the players that got replaced or did he just not make it at all i thought there was like a christian derisaw pro bowl picture i guess he didn't all right okay wow that's silly that he didn't make it, but he was

probably the second or third best tackle in the league. So maybe you're right. You're right. That, uh, that he deserved that. Maybe it was Brian O'Neill I was thinking of, but he deserved it. I think that the, you have to go to the heart and I'm not trying to be defensive here. You have to go to the heart of the pro bowl prediction because the pro bowl does not matter. The heart of the prediction was that Christian Derrissaw would be really, really good. So maybe, maybe we could split the difference and give me a nine for that. Cause he was really, really good. But he, I guess, didn't make the pro bowl. That shows you how much I pay attention. I mean, to the pro bowl, it means absolutely nothing to me because in years past, they would be putting in like Anthony Barr when he had his worst year of his career. So,

you know, okay. But, but again, you're right. You got me on that one. So I'll give myself a six on the Jefferson touchdown pass. Let me know what you guys think in the comments. If you think that's a good one or not the 27th prediction from last year bold prediction going into last year was maybe one of my absolute worst Seattle will draft number one overall if they don't trade for Jimmy G not only did Seattle not draft number one overall Jimmy G was not traded and Gino Smith was really really good and so I wrote the Texans and Falcons look like the worst teams in the NFL roster wise but their QBs are better than Drew Locke and Gino Smith oh no this is the year it all comes apart in Seattle

oh no this is a two this is a one this is as bad as it gets. Gino Smith made the playoffs. He played really, really well. And nobody likes to see it more than me. A journeyman quarterback who was a backup for a long time, finally gets his chance, proves that he could have been a good starter all along. Very happy for Gino Smith. I'm sorry, Gino. That's my bad. Now, Marcus Mariota, he had his bumps with the Falcons. And I think that by the end of the year, they just wanted to, and I guess we'll all be watching the Netflix quarterback thing to see what happened with Marcus Mariota. I think that, you know, they wanted to see Desmond Ritter by the time it kind of fell apart. The Falcons maybe didn't have the worst roster i should have given that to the bears the texans though i mean the

texans were very close to drafting number one so it's not a hundred percent wrong everything i said about that but it's really really close uh and it did not turn out i i the texans davis mills did not turn out to be better than geno smith not even close i will say if you go back and look for last year and i was never buying davis mills i just thought this geno smith drew lock situation i thought drew lock was going to start uh but if you go back and look there was legitimate buzz for davis mills i am not making that up that if you google davis mills texans to 2022 season take a big step or something you'll find all sorts of articles of people who are like film analysts and things like that who thought that davis mills was going to take a step forward so i thought maybe he'll be okay and uh he was not and genoino Smith was very good. So that is a horrendous take. Got to give

myself a two at best. Ethan says that I think the Texans could be a seven or eight win team this year. Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, CJ Stroud and being a rookie quarterback is pretty tough. The division is not very tough for them. You can reel off a couple of wins just in the division alone. And I also think that D' reel off a couple wins just in the division alone. And I also think that D'Amico Ryans probably knows what he's doing. They have not had a coach there who knows what he's doing in some time. I am actually, for the first time in how long, intrigued by the Texans. Yeah, maybe that will be one of the 50 bold predictions

that the Texans will be a super fun team. I'm not really sure about that because they are the Texans will be a super fun team. I'm not really sure about that because they are the Texans, but with D'Amico Ryans and CJ Stroud, you've got my attention, Texans. All right, let's look at the next one. The new NFL overtime rules will determine a divisional or championship playoff weekend game. That did not happen to my recollection. Although, as you've proved, my recollection of last season is not perfect because I thought Darasau was in the Pro Bowl, but that didn't happen. I don't think that there was a playoff game that went to overtime last year, or was there? Was

there a playoff game that went to OT? I don't think that there was. And it definitely didn't determine the divisional or championship round. But now you've got me like questioning everything I recall from last season, but I don't, I don't think so. And what did I write about that? I wrote that it's inevitable that the Bills Chiefs playoff game from last year will be repeated in some form. That was when, you know, the 13 seconds thing happened and everything. And we'll end up seeing both teams get a chance with the ball and their fate changed by the new rules. Roger will want to see it. So I was going like two thirds conspiracy there on that bold prediction. Eventually we'll see that come into play, but that ends up being like a five out of

10. That was just, that was a coin flip bold prediction. There was no logic behind it. It was just, hey, maybe we'll see that this year and we'll see different overtime rules. And hey, maybe if in 2009 the Vikings had had those rules, let's move on to the next prediction here. All right. Number 29, the Vikings make a somewhat significant move by week one. I feel that I was hedging. I do feel that I was hedging with number 29 saying somewhat. So now this is where you guys have to come in and the comments and grade me here because they did trade for Jalen Rager

and they did give up some draft capital for Jalen Rager. They also gave away Armand Watson traded for Ross Blacklock, which at the time seemed somewhat significant. Irv Smith was banged up in camp, but they didn't make a big move for a tight end, right? There was no Chris Herndon. I think this one's like a seven. I think this is a good, I don't know how significant you guys view Ross Blacklock or Jalen Rager, but somewhat. So here, here's how it qualifies somewhat. A guy in a press conference was very excited, very excited about Jalen Rager. I think that qualifies as this being a fairly hot take, but also it was sort of predictable because it was a new regime. And yeah, I agree, Jason, that it's a loose definition of significant. I agree. That's why

I'm not giving myself a 9 or a 10. We have tough standards here as I am reviewing these 2022 predictions. But I'll give myself a 7. I will say that Jalen Rager was somewhat of a significant move. I think we were actually more surprised though, by the whole Ross Blacklock and Armand Watts situation, them trading for Blacklock. He had been a, a, a player for the Texans. He had been a starter and played a lot of snaps and then he just did absolutely nothing for the Vikings. So, yeah, I would make that prediction again this year. I think they'll probably do something else. Let's see.

All right, now I actually have to look this one up to make sure it's right. Let's see. So, okay. The next one is a very good prediction. Okay. Let's go. Let's go like the next three. Oh, wow. Okay. Look at this. All right. So here was last year. I went with some rookies. Number 30, Garrett Wilson wins offensive rookie of the year. Did he win offensive rookie of the year? I'm looking this up. Who do they give out offensive and defensive rookie of the year. Did he win offensive rookie of the year? I'm looking this up. Who do they give out offensive and defensive rookie of the year? Is that what they do?

Awards and Pro Bowls. Not good. He did. All right. I mean, that's pretty good, folks. That's pretty good. Garrett Wilson winning offensive rookie of the year. My thought process process on that was that he was going to get the ball all the time and that they didn't really have many other receivers for the jets. They drafted him super high. And I really liked the guy out of Ohio state. That's that's, that was the logic there for Garrett Wilson. Now, had I picked somebody who was like a second rounder and then he won offensive rookie of the year, then it would be a 10 out of 10, but that's not exactly what happened. I'll give myself an eight on that. There was a lot of players who were drafted high that were offensive weapons. I think it's fair to give myself an eight on nailing Garrett Wilson,

offensive rookie of the year. Now with defensive rookie of the year, number 31 on the bold predictions list, I went Trent McDuffffie he was not the one that won defensive rookie of the year but he was also very good um and like played a key role on a team that won the super bowl he was just not as good as another cornerback that was sauce gardner who won the defensive rookie of the year so i would give myself maybe a five on trent mcduffie he was good but he wasn't great uh or it wasn't great enough uh to top sauce gardner for getting that rookie of the year and then with my number 32 prediction kenny pickett wins eight games as the steelers starter how many games did kenny pickett actually win because i think they won nine as a team how many games did Kenny pick it actually wins? I think they won nine as a team. How many did

Kenny win? I'm looking that up. You see, when you, when I look stuff up, can you guys see that? No, you can't. Okay. It's stuck on the other one. Oh, seven, seven and five. All right. The accumulation of the rookie, the three rookie predictions, Garrett Wilson, Trent McDuffie, and Kenny Pickett, I think that's an eight or a nine. I think that deserves a pat on the back after some of my very bad picks with the Seattle Seahawks. Nailed the rookies. My thinking about Kenny Pickett was that no matter who ends up playing quarterback for Mike Tomlin, they at least find ways to win games. I mean, if duck Hodges could do it, then Kenny Pickett could do it. And I did not believe that Mitch Trubisky was any good. And the first line of the, of the article says the Steelers

are quickly going to remember that Mitch Trubisky is Mitch Trubisky. Boom. Crush that. Absolutely right. They started Mitch Trubisky. Then they were like, Oh my gosh, it's Mitch Trubisky boom crush that absolutely right they started Mitch Trubisky then they were like oh my gosh it's Mitch Trubisky no no no no no on to Kenny Pickett he wins seven games instead of eight a strong prediction um and I I think we can grade those all three together as being some of my best prediction work of 2022 all right let's move on to the next group of predictions and we can analyze this. All right, number 33. And you guys feel free to keep grading them on the one to 10 scale. And I'll put up your grades on the screen on YouTube here. Number 33 is Desmond Ritter starts by week seven for the Falcons and I wrote the Falcons are

terrible and could start one and six leaving no reason to stick with Mariota that eventually became true when did he start though let's find out uh because it was later than that I think I think Mariota kept them kind of mildly competitive and if I recall, let's see, he was kind of doing okay for a while. Game logs. When did he end up starting? And then it just, the wheels fell off with Mariota and it went sideways. He ended up starting week 14. So not that close, pretty predictable. I can't really give myself a ton of points for saying that Marcus Mariota would eventually start for the Falcons. I'll have to go with a four on that one out of 10 just because it was obvious that he was eventually going to start and Mariota wasn't going to be

their franchise quarterback, but I wasn't really close. I thought it would be much sooner. I wasn't really close on when he would start, so I'm not going to give too many points here number 34 the titans will miss the playoffs and move on from ryan tannehill after 2022. got half of it right uh the titans did not make the playoffs they missed on the last day of the season when josh dobbs what threw an interception against the jaguars is that what happened they have not moved on from Ryan Tannehill. Can anyone make sense of that? Now, they did draft another quarterback this year, so that's two drafted quarterbacks in the last two years.

Part of my process with that one was thinking that they would want to turn it over to Malik Willis this year, but Malik Willis is not good, or at least from what we saw. I don't really understand why Ryan Tannehill is still their quarterback. The Titans could be perfectly in line to compete for Caleb Williams. They are that bad right now. They've lost most of their talent for those teams that were winning the division a couple of years ago.

And Ryan Tannehill, if he was in Atlanta or even Washington, there's got to be a handful of teams if they had ryan tannahill that it would be an upgrade a quarterback but them missing the playoffs was i would say a tad bold based on how good they had been in previous years with ryan tannahill give myself a six on that one um it wasn't a blazing take but they had kind of dominated the division the last three years uh number 35 is rashad bateman makes the pro bowl what happened to rashad bateman last year i you know i also just shouldn't use the pro bowl but i guess that's the only way to say hey this guy's going to be good he only had 15 catches This is a very bad take. I just felt like Rashad Bateman was ready to take a step forward.

Maybe he will this year. Anybody who watched the guy play in college would think he is fantastic, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy very much in the NFL. They had also traded away Marquise Brown. And so you trade him away. Rashad Bateman slides into that wide receiver one situation, but you can really see. And there was a chart that somebody put out the other day about how Lamar Jackson has had a very low percentage of wide receivers that have been open. And that's not surprising because he's just had a very low percentage of healthy and good wide receivers. So Mark Andrews has ended up being his only target. You could see why he would so desperately

want Odell Beckham, but that was a bad take. That's a, that's a three Rashad Bateman had a horrible year last year. Did not end up in the pro bowl. Number 36. Okay. We have our first take that is yet to be decided. Number 36, Daniil Hunter signs a $25 million per year contract with the Vikings after 2022. And I wrote, Hunter will have a similar season to what he did in 2018 and 19, and the Vikings will move heaven and earth to keep him long-term. What do we think, folks? How hot is this take?

It really depends. This is funny. Of all the takes that I've done all of them I think are decided except for this one which is still uh hanging out there if they pay him this is a pretty good take I mean it's not an amazing opinion to say or prediction to say Daniil Hunter will be good at football. But after two years of battling injury, he comes back. He plays the whole season. He played great. And he did get back to his 2018 and 2019 form. So I have to give myself some credit on that.

If you're just joining, we're reviewing my 2022 predictions, giving one out of 10 grades on how hot my predictions were or how ice cold as some of them were. And again, if you missed last night, go back and listen to it. It's our first 25. This is the second 25. Let's see. CJ says a stroke of a pen away from Hunter being a nine or 10 on the hot take. Yeah.

Yeah, I agree. I mean, he signs a contract. If it's 25 million per year, exactly. Then that's a nine or a 10. Cause it, I mean, a 10, it just couldn't be more perfect. The only thing about it being a 10 is the boldness. So the boldness to say, and I know that, you know, Dara saw the pro bowl thing, but that Dara saw was going to be an elite tackle. That was pretty bold. And then it came completely true. So that's bordering on a 9 or a 10.

Hunter being good again is not crazy bold because he was one of the best players in the league at his position. So it's not insanely bold, but it is pretty darn accurate that he got back to his old uh style and if he signs that contract it'll be i would give myself a nine if i if i hit the number then it might be a 10 uh high times kg says 25 might be pushing it but it'll be close to funny money uh close to a lot of funny money yeah i mean I mean, I think that if you're a hunter, you're asking for 25. It's just, do the Vikings really want to do that? Yeah, and Matthew says, not a hot take, but I think you nailed it. That's right.

That's how I would put it. It's accurate. It's as accurate as it gets if he signs. And predicting the bounce back was very accurate. And this discussion, I guess, maybe I should have predicted that there would be a huge debate over whether they should pay him $25 million a year. And Robert Sala is the runner up. You know, I really thought that Sean McDermott should have been the coach of the year last year with everything that they went through. And I still don't really understand why he wasn't everything that the, that Buffalo went through with DeMar Hamlin, with their travel and with their injuries and the people they lost,

including Brian Dable. I thought that he was the best coach in the NFL last year and deserved to be rewarded. Dan Campbell did come out of the season where with people saying he's a good coach. And I think people also came out of the season talking about Robert Sala is a good coach, being able to have that team in contention with the awful, awful quarterback play. Their defense was extremely good, which is his side of the ball. Coming out of it feeling like,

all right, we're one quarterback away from being a really good team because we've got our coach now. But neither one of these actually came to fruition. So I can't give myself any higher than maybe a five on these two, but they weren't completely wrong because everyone was all about Dan Campbell last off season. Didn't they do hard knocks and he cried and everyone was like,

yeah, Dan Campbell. And I think by the end of the season, people were still saying, yeah, Dan Campbell, when they went to green Bay and knocked the Packers out of the playoffs. So I give myself a five. Dan Campbell was the people's champ for

that award. Yeah. Force of nature. He is a force of nature for sure. And if you guys remember my former intern, Haley English is now working with the Detroit lions and she's going to be there during all of training camp and so forth. I can't wait to hear what being around Dan Campbell is going to be like and and I'll also be really interested on how I mean Robert Sala is going to get tested this year for sure uh being the coach of Aaron Rodgers so that one's like a five onto the next one the league will set its highest passer rating mark ever oh i don't think this happened because of all the quarterback injuries uh i think 2020 was maybe the highest passing rating like league rating ever so last year was 89.1 as a league and 2020 was 93.6 so all the

injuries last year really hurt this one from coming true. My feeling was that there were so many good quarterbacks that we'd see a lot of very successful and efficient passing. But the injuries were just all over the place in the NFL last year. Oh, also the NFC exists. That was another problem in the NFC. So that was wrong. And I would have to give myself like a three. It just, it just didn't turn out to be what I thought. And what I didn't see coming was the NFL being as efficient as it's ever been running wise. If you look at the numbers,

so many running backs over four and a half, even over five yards to carry expected points added, shooting up through the roof running was more successful last year um than it's been in a long time so i guess i should have guessed that with all the defenses playing way back to try to stop uh the deep ball oh boy oh boy um there's some there is some very hot takes coming up but not super accurate as I kind of look forward. And I purposefully did not read these back before the show so I could get my pure reaction and your guys as well. We could react together. Number 39, the Saints will win six or fewer games.

This was based on Jameis Winston because I just did not believe in Jameis Winston at all. And it was close. close yeah this one was close they won seven mostly behind Andy Dalton who is better than Jameis Winston but not by a lot so they won seven I said they'd win six that's like a that's like a six out of ten it wasn't a blazing take to say that the Saints weren't going to be good last year, but there's been this idea among people who, I don't know, must play fantasy football or something that Jameis Winston just needed his big chance. What I mean? Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. It's yeah. He was never good. I don't get it. I

never have understood that. And so maybe what I saw in thinking I was being bold there was some people saying the Saints would be good and Jameis is finally getting his shot. So I thought I'll be a little contrarian here, but it probably wasn't. It was probably an obvious take. So that's, I mean, because it's right, I think CJ is only giving me a four, but because it's right, I think it has to be on the, or very close to right. I said six. They won seven. It has to be at least a five, but it's not super bold. Maybe a four is fair. Number 40 is completely wrong.

Mike McDaniel will be one and done in Miami, giving way to Sean Payton. Not only was Mike McDaniel not one and done, but he made the playoffs using three different quarterbacks. He did not give way to Sean Payton, but Sean Payton did return to the league. If I wrote, if Miami isn't great, their owner is going to give the entire franchise to the best available coach who is crazy enough to work there. Yeah. Great to see our friend, Paul Hoda, want to hear checking in collar wrong again. Thank you, Paul. Great to see our friend Paul Hodowanek here checking in. Call her wrong again.

Thank you, Paul. Great to see you. Why don't you stick to golf? How about that? No, Paul is working now for PGATour.com and very proud of another former intern. But yeah, I really, really missed on Mike McDaniel. And one of the things I've always had a tough time with is if somebody

worked under somebody else who's good. So McDaniel worked under Kyle Shanahan. Does that mean they're automatically going to be great? I usually think it doesn't. But in this case, McDaniel brought a lot of the same stuff that Kyle Shanahan does. The receivers were great. Tua took a huge step forward. That was just a complete miss. John says that I missed the GQ factor with McDaniel. I guess that's right. I guess that's right. But Sean Payton at least did return to the NFL. So that's pretty cold. That might be a three or a two. It's probably a two, but it's not a three or a two it's probably a two but it's not a one or a zero because at least sean payton returned so there were there were signs of life there all right let's look at the next group oh my gosh there are a lot of bad takes coming up bull the takes from 2022 uh was not my thing you

know yesterday i got a lot more right but but this is not, not going particularly well. Number 41, despite making the playoffs 2022 is Kirk Cousins final year as the Vikings quarterback. That did not turn out to be true, but it, there are elements of fact here, which is they did make the playoffs and he did not sign a contract extension. And this one was probably as bold as I got for all the predictions that this would be it for him. My feeling at the time was if they win nine games in the NFC, they could win, they could get in the playoffs and they would eventually have to go through what they've gone through this off season. But if it was,

do we agree that if they had won nine games and barely made the playoffs and had the same result lost to the giants that Kirk is not here, doesn't the 13 win thing and his many comebacks and all those, they have to play into it, right? Because if he had had a very average season that didn't have all the fourth quarter comebacks, and it was just a regular nine win season where they barely got in, I think that that emboldens them to say, well, we were mediocre, but when you win the division by a ton and you win 13, then it sets a different standard. So CJ making a point, making a point that this take is technically still alive. That's true.

That is true. The 49ers are on line one with Trey Lance. That is a great point, CJ, that just like the Daniil Hunter take, this one is not over until it's over. But I think it's probably over. I think he's going to be the quarterback this year but i can't give myself a super cold take on this because they did make the playoffs and they didn't extend him i will go four out of ten maybe even if i'm giving if i'm being nice to myself a five

because there's shades of truth number 42 mike mccarthy is fired. Kellen Moore takes over as Dallas head coach. Well, someone was fired and that was Kellen Moore instead of Mike McCarthy. And I think that there's a discussion to be had that maybe the wrong guy was fired and Kellen Moore should be Dallas's head coach and not Mike McCarthy. There is a case to be made. I thought that what happened with Dallas is they set the bar too high and that they would not reach it. But they did. They reached it again for regular season success and won a playoff game, which makes it even more strange and weird that Kellen Moore was fired and now is with the Los Angeles Chargers.

And I guess it's up for debate whether Mike McCarthy deserves it or not. Those of you who watch Hot Routes regularly with Jonathan Harrison, he would say that it should have been this way, and maybe it should have. I don't know. Mike McCarthy, if any of you saw when I did my coaching in quarterback tiers and I put Mike McCarthy in the Mike McCarthy tier, I never know what to think of this guy. His record is phenomenal. A lot of it's with Aaron Rodgers, but even in Dallas the last two years, they've won so many games in the regular season. And yet everyone thinks that Mike McCarthy doesn't

know what he's doing. And so I wanted to defend him. And then he fires Kellen Moore for passing too much and I guess scoring too much. I don't know. So I'll go with a four out of 10. It's not that bad. There was some shades of truth. Someone got fired and it made some sense, but it was not a correct take. Maybe three out of 10. Number 43, the NFL sets a record for most fourth downs attempted i don't know if that's true uh let's see 2022 most fourth downs i don't know if that's true or not um yeah i let's see i i have nothing popping up saying that it was the most fourth downs in history, but it had to have been close, right? It had to have been. Let me see.

Trying to Google here. Let's see. So there were teams that it's giving me all the numbers on which teams set the record for most fourth downs and stuff. And there were some teams that set their own team record for most fourth downs and stuff. And there were some teams that set their own team record for most fourth downs. But I don't see any articles saying that it was the most fourth downs in history. So maybe if someone has an article on that, that they could pass my way just to tell me if I was right or wrong. Teams went for fourth down a lot last year, though. And I think that what I wrote

here is the analytics have taken hold and we're never going back i believe that that is correct and we have seen that these head coaches are making better decisions than ever and even if they didn't set the record technically for going for fourth downs which i don't know if they did or not that take is right it's also not hot though i mean that we've been going that way for some time probably for about the last four or five years uh after the eagles did it in route to the super bowl went for a bunch of fourth downs we've just seen it kind of gaining momentum where when coaches get on the other side of the 50 they're probably going for it um that one we

there's not a lot else to say about that because the next take is as cold as it gets in fact the next two takes are as cold as they get number 44 lewis seen grades above 75 by pff um well i wonder what he actually graded because he played one play did he get a positive grade on his one play i don't know what he did on special teams or whatever. Was it one? It was one play and nothing happened. So he, oh, two plays and nothing happened. So he got a 60. If nothing happens, you get a 60.

How did he do on special teams? Special teams was a 62. No, that, that, no, that didn't work out. You know, when you listen to Lewis scene talk talk when he was drafted, it was like, okay, this guy comes from Georgia. He seems like a bright kid and he's going to fit in with Harrison Smith, which has just been, as I wrote a golden ticket for everybody. All right. He's going to have success. Everyone has had success next to Harrison Smith, but the trick of it is you have to actually be playing next to Harrison Smith and not on the bench to get a 75.

Maybe I'll try this one again as a bold prediction. Probably not, though, based on what we saw in minicamp. Matthew and CJ both calling it incomplete. Fair enough. He did get hurt. You guys are right about that. And maybe as the season played out, he would have gotten more opportunities to play and he would have graded a 75 by pff so if you guys want to be very kind to me and give me an incomplete on that i appreciate it all right we are down to the final 45 through

50 here and number 45 is an absolutely horrendous take that the New England Patriots would win 12 games. Now, here's what I did not factor in enough is Matt Patricia. Matt Patricia. Yeah. Oh, that's funny. Horse Feathers says the Lions set a record for failed fourth down attempts. All right. That's that. That's at least a a record that gives me one more point out of 10, the Patriots. I didn't factor in enough. The absolute bleep show that was going on between their offensive coordinators, Joe judge, Matt, Patricia, Mac Jones, clearly not happy.

The receivers, they got them. We're not all that good. It just, you know, the previous season, Mack Jones had been good. There was reason to believe that a guy going into his second season would get more around him and be better as a lot of young quarterbacks do take a step forward in year two. Just none of that. The only time Mack Jones took a step forward was at US Bank Stadium when he really played well against the Vikings and against almost no one else.

That is a very bad take. They won eight games. It's not like they won three, so I will give myself a two out of 10 for a bad take. Number 46, the NFL will be pressured to change the kickoff rule. The lack, oh, but I was the wrong way. I went the wrong direction. Because this is true that the NFL did change the kickoff rule, but for the wrong reason that I said. I wrote, the lack of kickoff returns in the NFL is obnoxious. And this year, exciting returners, including Kenny Wong, will get the ball rolling on the conversation about putting the excitement back in that play. I am so sorry to everyone for that prediction. That is that might be that might be a one that might be a zero. I just couldn't be more wrong. I believed and hoped, and I was trying to predict it into existence, that the NFL would see the light when it came to kickoffs.

They need to be back. They're action. They're fun. And Ken A. Wong was fun again with a kick return for touchdown. I guess it would have been against New England. And they went the completely opposite way and made it even less likely that teams are going to return kicks. And I want to cry every time I see the ball kicked out of the back of the end zone, but now it's going to be worse. When I, the first time

that a guy calls for fair catch at the seven yard line, I feel like i'm going to throw my ice cream out of the press box onto the field there's no way i could throw anything from the press box onto the field we're way too far away but throw my ice cream in range so sorry about that take that did not work out number 47 the vikings will not kick a field goal inside 30 yards or punt inside the 45 wrong very wrong i was giving kevin o'connell too much analytics cred on that they did kick several short field goals i don't know how many punts they had inside the 45 probably not that many uh i wrote um that o'connell would game manage aggressively not randomly and yeah i agree with you matthew that the new kickoff rule is trash it's just trash it's just trash it's more of the nfl pretending they're protecting players and not

really protecting players but just saying see the thing that we did um so kevin o'connell it's an interesting uh discussion though is kevin o'connell a good game manager i thought he was as average as average comes last year he didn't break the game he didn't go full harbaugh john harbaugh and be super aggressive and go for fourth downs all the time he did kick some short field goals but he also wasn't a buffoon when it came to it i thought he handled it fine but it just wasn't oh wow o'connell's really going for it and there were a few times where this is jogging memories they did the right thing and going for it and it was maybe fourth and two or something and then threw the ball 20 yards down the field incomplete so there there was some game management stuff overall that was

pretty wonky i would give him on his game management maybe a five or six out of ten probably a five and they did not follow these rules number 48 a caleb evans will win mr mancato here we go now i'm back i don't know if he won mr mancato i honestly don't remember does anybody remember who Mr. Mankato was last year I am completely blanking oh was it Ty Chandler because he had the really good runs in the preseason games might have been Ty Chandler was Mr. Mankato but this is a good prediction a Caleb Evans was a fourth round pick and I got the sense that the Vikings really liked him early on and even though I don't remember him just emerging and stealing people's jobs that just even by the way they talked about him at the

draft they thought they found something very unique in him and we could see a step forward for McCaleb Evans he was getting all the reps in minic. Looks to me like a guy they want him to be a starter. Matthew's given me an eight on this and other Matthew is only giving me a four on this. That's okay. So there's a, there's some, the dissension here between the Matthews about me, a Matthew, but okay. CJ breaking the tie, giving me an eight on this. I think this is an eight as well. I think this is a really good prediction, even he didn't win okay now we're across the board now we got everybody holding up eights from John thank you John giving me an eight I think this is a good prediction a fourth round pick who would emerge as a player that had intrigue and maybe there was some

discussion about him uh also became a popular player on Twitter, as some of you were mentioning. But Mr. Mankato is the friends we made along the way, though, right? It's not a real official award. They don't give a guy a Mr. Mankato award. But Evans emerging as a dude. That happened last year during training camp. All right, two more predictions. Okay, number 49 Aaron Rogers will retire after 2022 and start an NFT company this is a pretty close one did not happen but Rogers said that he was this close to retiring except for he went into his darkness retreat and saw visions of Joe Namath and lots of money,

and then decided he was coming out to play for the Jets or not going into retirement and staying in the NFL to play for the Jets. And starting an NFT company is also somewhat close because he's doing conferences on psychedelics. like right ballpark not right prediction but i kind of had the guy pegged i think so uh i'm gonna go with i'm gonna go with like a six on that he was this close to retiring and he's doing weird stuff still so okay i like that one i don't know how you guys grade that one. I think that was okay. And now number 50, I am going to hold up a championship belt for this one. Number 50, just by the skin of my teeth with this prediction, the Vikings offensive line will rank above 20th in pass blocking. Yes, they were 19.

I got it. I got it. You know, I think that is bold, but they do have two of the best tackles in the league. We didn't know that going in and they were 19th unless PFF. Sometimes PFF changes. They go back and they review and they make some changes and sometimes teams shuffle by a place or not. I could just double check this one to confirm that the vikings were indeed not 20th uh but i think they were 19th and let's see they were indeed the 19th best pass block we did it put a ring or put a put a banner up in u.s bank stadium a nine out of five or 9.5 out of 10 from horse feathers thank you

thank you very proud of that one save the best for last the vikings offensive line will rank above 20th 19th hey overall pff rated them uh 13th when you combine run and pass so last year they were claiming they had a pretty average offensive line i think i would say that's probably true overall on the whole but the weaknesses are what gets you and they said some weaknesses okay all right i'm getting high grades for that one i love that you guys came in with the high grades and when i had a horrendous take you just sort of left it there like all right i'm not gonna not gonna really pile on to this guy but uh getting a 10 from matthew a 9 from john a 10 from cj yeah i agree i agree they they had not been in the top 20 since i started covering the team that's a oh uh 2017 so they had not been in the top 20 since 2017 so i think that is bold and it is accurate. It did turn out they were just barely a top 20.

I didn't want to ignore Horsefeather's prediction that Brian Asamoah, oh, or not prediction, but the correction that Brian Asamoah was Mr. Mankato. Yeah, I think there was probably a case for Ty Chandler as well. I don't even remember if we had some sort of long discussion about who it was because last year, now this year, it could be very different. Last year, it was hard to find somebody to be Mr. Mankato because we knew who all the starters were. But this year, there's a lot up for debate and we'll see how it goes. So here's what I'm going to do. I am going to spend the next two days painstakingly sweating bullets all over my face, coming up with 50 more. I'll probably split them into 25, 25. And we'll go over them later in the week.

How's that sound? And hopefully you guys can join again. I'm not sure exactly what day. I've got to figure it out. But we'll go over them again later in the week uh on another one of these lives and you guys can analyze my 50 bold predictions for 2023 and i would say out of 2022 uh all of the predictions all 50 there was probably 10 that were really good and maybe 20 that were kind of meh and the rest were wow stop watching football sir but that's that's what makes it great right if you could predict ball then we

wouldn't watch um oh uh cj you want a 2023 take for the line they have continuity for the first time in forever yeah i think that they will be better. I do think there'll be better. Um, but you know, I don't know how much better that's is that that's not a hot take, but I think if they were 19th, they could be like 15th, but until I really see it from the guards and another year of Garrett Bradbury playing as well as he did last year. I can't say, oh yeah, they're going to jump from 19th and pass blocking to like seventh. So I think that they'll be better and the continuity will help, but I don't think that everyone's going to change their stripes. And last year too, they were, and there is a chart on this because there's a chart on everything. They played one of the highest number of snaps together. I think it was in the top 10 of all the offensive lines for the starting five. So they really didn't have a

ton of injuries, but if they get into the top 10, it could make a significant difference with the offense. Anyway, well, you guys are the best. Keep an eye out on the channel. And later this week, things are a little hectic. I've mentioned before that I'm moving. So things are a little bit hectic. Maybe, I don't know, maybe Wednesday night. I'm going to put these together tonight and tomorrow for my 50 bold predictions for 2023. And I hope you guys are able to join. So yeah, we'll shoot for Wednesday night around the same time. Hopefully you guys can join then. Thanks everybody for playing along. You guys made this super fun, and I really appreciate it. And we will talk again very soon. Thanks, guys.