Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Reviewing July predictions from last year (Part 1)

Episode Date: July 10, 2023

Matthew Coller discovers his article from last July with bold predictions and grades each one with wildly varying results. What did he say about where the Vikings would end up? Their biggest win and loss? What Christian Darrisaw, Justin Fields and the LA Chargers would become? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here and I'm launching what I think is going to be a pretty fun week and for those of you joining on YouTube, thanks for joining late here. I had planned to go on a little earlier but I went to the Minnesota Lynx game, watched Kelsey Plum drop 40 points on the Lyn. And so now we're here. So if you've got the Sunday scaries and you don't want to go to bed because you have to work in the morning, enjoy some football talk. And I think I've got a pretty fun week planned here for us on Purple Insider, because this is the week sort of too far away from hardcore training camp conversation and positional previews and all that stuff, which we will definitely get into, but we're a little bit too far away. But also

we've kind of talked about a lot of the stuff from the earlier in the off season, the direction of the team, all those things. And so we've got a bit of a theme here of predictions week. And I'm going to be going through with a bunch of different guests and things like that predictions for the 2023 nfl season and we'll talk about how realistic they are hot predictions bold predictions i've got two things planned that i like one for later in the week where it's what do the analytics nerds think predictions, and then also quarterback only predictions. So those are coming up later in the week. But before we can make new predictions, I think we have to take a look at the old predictions. So I pulled up an article that I

wrote last year, and that article was called 50 Bold Vikings and NFL Predictions. And so I'm going to screen share with you kind folks and jump in the comments here. Make fun of me. I'm going to go through a bunch of these predictions. Give your own. Let's talk about, you know, how you're going to make predictions this year, what your hottest and boldest Vikings predictions are, anything you've got, but especially making fun of some of mine. So I had 50 bold predictions from last year, and I'm going to do the screen share here. So you guys can see it.

If you are watching on YouTube, if you're listening audio wise, don't worry, I'll read all of them. So you don't have to worry about that. All right, let me make it a little bit bigger here so you can all see it. Okay. So there is the article 50 bold NFL and Vikings predictions. about that. All right. Let me make it a little bit bigger here so you can all see it. Okay. So there is the article 50 bold NFL and Vikings predictions, and, uh, just even the sub headline, a big year for Irv Smith jr. Some of this might not be going in the best direction.

So what I'm going to do is I'm going to go through these and then we're going to talk about what happened and why it happened and then hope for some you know viewer participation and we'll have a good conversation about it so let's start off just with my first prediction from last year that the Vikings would win on the final day of the season to make the playoffs well they did win on the final day of the season and they did make the playoffs so those two things are true however they did not need to make the playoffs on the final day of the season to or they didn't need to win on the final day of the season in fact the Chicago Bears were trying to lose against them on purpose on the final game of the season. So that turned out to be wrong. And my logic is that

they were going to be close in a tight race, probably with the Green Bay Packers, and that they were going to need that win in Soldier Field. And there you go. That's why they were going to get back in the playoffs. But instead, they won 13 games. I think that what we should do is rate this on sort of like a rotten tomatoes. How good was the prediction meter? And for this one, I mean, if we just go like a one to 10 meter, I'm going to give this one actually like a five,

even though it was wrong that they needed to win on the final day to make the playoffs. They still had a team of its strength that reasonably should have needed to win on the final day. And the Detroit lions were very even with the Minnesota Vikings and they got off to a bad start. The Vikings needed, uh, you know, a lot of things to go their way to win the division by as much as they did. So it was a cold take. I guess we could do that. Like, was it cold or was it hot from the predictions from did. So it was a cold take. I guess we could do that. Like, was it cold or was it hot from the predictions from last year?

It was a cold take. So maybe it can't be past five, but I think it was a very reasonable take. It wasn't absurd. It wasn't insane. And, you know, it did okay. It's not like I'm just completely laughable for saying that, but they also won 13 games.

So I wasn't that close. The number two take is now this is where we could start making fun of me. The chargers will win the super bowl. And that turned out to be wrong. Uh, if you recall last off season, and then some of you have listened for a long time. So you remember the good takes and you remember the bad takes and I appreciate all of you for that. So you remember the good takes and you remember the bad takes. And I appreciate all of you for that. So take number two, what prediction, bold prediction number two was that the chargers would win the super bowl. And you know what? Maybe a year early. I don't know. They've got Eric Kendricks. Uh, this one was not great, but one thing that happened to the chargers last year is that they had a bunch of injuries. I mean a lot. And that offensive line that was part of the prediction, it got banged up.

Some of their playmakers got banged up and they did have a massive lead in the wild card round. So it wasn't like they were a bad team. Their coaching, as Derek brings up in the comments, that their coaching was not particularly good. Justin Herbert was not as good as the year before. That might have been teams being a little bit more prepared for him. It might have been coaching. It might have been injuries. Still though, they found themselves in the postseason. It wasn't wildly off that they could be in the competition for the Super Bowl, but they were not as strong as I thought they were going to be. Maybe this year they will be, but that division is so difficult.

And at some point, I guess we're going to find out. Herbert often gets mentioned in the same conversation as people like Patrick Mahomes and like Josh Allen. And I guess we'll see if he deserves to be part of that, if he can go deep in the playoffs at some point. So that is a cold take, considering that they completely melted down in the playoffs. I will give myself a three out of 10

for that cold take that the Chargers would go to the Super Bowl. I'm just going to go one by one. And, uh, if you want in the comment section, if you guys want to throw out some hot takes of your own, because this year I am formulating my new 50 bold predictions list. And, you know, I need ideas. I need, uh, you guys to, to be influential here in what my new 50 bold predictions is going to be. And I'm sure I'll get into the ones more for the Vikings as well as we go along. But these are from last year. So just to clarify, these are me analyzing how close I was last year. These are not predictions for this year. So I may say that a couple of times because it's a live stream and

people come and go. But yeah, these are a review of last year. So the next prediction on the list was that the Detroit Lions would win eight games or more. This is a winner. So I only gave myself, I think, a three out of 10 for the Chargers pick. This one is a winner that the Detroit Lions would win eight games or more. Because you know what? They did. They did win eight games or more because you know what they did they did win eight games or more now they did not win by a lot more but um I wrote here that they've

improved their set of weapons offensive line and defense the defense part was wrong and prove they're willing to fight for Dan Campbell that turned out to be absolutely correct that the Lions got hot in the second half of the season, came out of the year. Maybe the happiest team has ever been to have still missed the playoffs, but they end up as now the favorite to win the NFC North. And now that's where I guess I'll think about long and hard when I make the predictions for this year, am I going to predict that they're going to make the playoffs or, or that they're going to win the division? Or am I, uh, am I going to predict that they will struggle? Um, I'm not sure yet if, I mean,

when we're talking bold, it would be a bold prediction to predict that the lions were going to struggle this year, even though everyone's talking about them as a potential division champion. So I haven't decided yet, uh, which way I'm going to go with that, or if I'm just gonna, you know, let, uh, leave them out of my bold predictions because I don't have one. Uh, what is a bold prediction that Jared Goff will take them to the super bowl? That seems too bold. It's always tough. Always tough. How did the take artists do it? Derek says, I'm afraid that Campbell will make a meathead mistake or two that kills them in a playoff run. Yeah. I mean, I think that that's why it's hard to go all in on this team, even though I trust their offensive coordinator and think he

does a great job, but there's also that Jared Goff has his weaknesses and he did get a team to the Super Bowl once. It took one of the worst calls by referees in history that actually resulted in a rule change. It was so bad, not to take that away from Goff. He led a team to the Super Bowl, but his weaknesses are his weaknesses. And I do wonder if that can get you all the way through the playoffs. But in the NFC, I guess it's possible. I've always talked out of both sides of my mouth with Jared Goff, and I recognize that. I have a lot of respect for Jared Goff and maybe more than is the mainstream opinion that looks at him as just kind of a mid quarterback.

I think he's better than that. It's just that, you know, taking this team, are they strong enough to go all the way through the playoffs? Are they as strong as a Philadelphia, as a Dallas, as what San Francisco has, if they could figure out their quarterback position, I'm not sure. And there might be some ups and downs to that team that maybe people aren't expecting. I think that they'll win like 11, but I don't know. I don't know if it'll be much more than that. And that's why it's hard to come up with a bold take because my actual take on the Lions is 10, 11 wins. I don't know if they can go much farther than that, but it is the bold takes.

So going back to the list again from 2022 before the season bold takes buffalo does not win the afc east this was a uh so oh the lions take was like a 7 out of 10 that was a good take a lot of people said the lions would improve and they did so it turned out to be right but it wasn't that they won way more than eight games. So I'll give myself a seven out of 10 for that Buffalo. Well, they did win the AFC East. So that one's like a two. I should have trusted. So the funny thing about Buffalo last year is that they did have regression. They did have a bunch of injuries and they did have more problems on offense than they did the year before. And yet they still won the same amount of games.

And it should have been, you know, even more if they had just completed a quarterback sneak against the Minnesota Vikings or thrown a touchdown instead of two interceptions into the end zone. And yet in a lot of different ways, that Buffalo team was not as strong as the team that was 13 seconds away with, you know, Patrick Mahomes coming through for them to win. You know, so it's just sort of funny that you can have the right logic and a lot of the things could go wrong that you expect. And still a team with an elite quarterback finds a way to win enough of those games. And there is a little bit for my friends in Buffalo about Sean McDermott going on, where there's sort of some concern about Sean McDermott. And it really speaks to how much pressure there is when you set the bar this high because imagine going through everything they went through last year in Buffalo DeMar Hamlin they had a storm knockout a game that they had to move to

Detroit wild stuff they had more injuries they changed offensive coordinators Brian Dable went to the New York Giants all that stuff going on they win that many games and when they lose the Cincinnati people start pointing the finger at the coach. And then this weird thing with Stefan Diggs that happened during minicamp, there seemed to be some conflict between Diggs and Sean McDermott or the offensive staff or whatever it is. And they've been kind of mum about what that was, but it just really speaks to the pressure because, you know, if you're in a lot of NFL cities and that is a regression year that they had last year and you can still overcome it and you can still win a playoff game and be playing defense was a little just too good for what Buffalo had with only really the one receiver in Stefan Diggs because they lost Cole Beasley.

They lost Emmanuel Sanders and they relied too much on Gabe Davis, but they got all that regression and still found a way to win the division. So that is a, that is a very cold take. That's like a, that's like a two out of 10 opinion. And coming up next is another one that turned out to be bad which is that baltimore would win the afc north they did not uh but they did make the playoffs and that was an injury one with lamar jackson and then maybe contract related as well with lamar jack. Because, you know, I just, you know, that situation was kind of weird.

But with the Ravens, you figured, well, Lamar will be healthy this year and he'll get it together and he'll get rolling and they'll be the strongest team in that division. And then, you know, maybe that was thinking that Cincinnati going deep into the playoffs would have their regression, right? But instead Cincinnati improved and was every bit as good as they were the year before. And the Ravens were out in the first round because they fumbled and gave up like a hundred yard return on a fumble. Otherwise, they might've gone deeper, but they did not win the AFC North. So the take ends up being cold. And I respect Lamar Jackson, not playing with

his injury, but maybe he, you know, could have been playing and didn't. And that was why they ended up not winning or at least competing more for the North. That Baltimore team is always interesting. It seems like my entire life, Baltimore is always competitive year in and year out, no matter what, because of John Harbaugh. So it can never be that frozen of a take to pick them to win the division. Would you pick them this year though? I think I've heard some smart people, and maybe this will come up this week, pick the Ravens to win because, well, first Lamar will play through some of his injuries this year, I think, but also maybe they are this year, what we thought they were going to be last year.

And maybe Cincinnati does drop off a little bit. Cincinnati is such a juggernaut and they just, at some point they're going to have to pay burrow and they won't be able to keep everyone, but it is hard to look at Cincinnati and see anything except for a Super Bowl contender. So I won't be making that prediction again, I think. And I really missed on that one. The next prediction, I think, was a good one. Now, here's the funny thing. I don't know if Trevor Lawrence made the Pro Bowl or not, because the Pro Bowl does not matter.

I guess we'll have to Google it. Did Trevor Lawrence make the pro bowl i don't even know because i i haven't known a pro bowl roster in a very long time i don't even know people make the pro bowl and then oh yeah he made the pro bowl okay so i nailed that one crushed it trevor lawrence pro bowler got that one this was one that was maybe one of the easiest to see coming for last year as my sixth prediction from last season, uh, going into the year of 50 bold predictions of which I'll, I'll go through maybe half the list and then we'll get together again tomorrow night, go live and go through the second half of the list on that. As we kick off, you know, predictions week here, Trevor Lawrence was one of the easiest to see

I mean he started off with about the worst coach ever he did not look that awful under Urban Meyer which I think is a just a really telling sign for him he seemed to keep the team together with his leadership and played really well especially in the second half of the season. This might be, as far as a bold prediction for next year, would be not that the Jaguars win the division, but that the Jaguars end up in the AFC championship game. That one might be a direction that I go, despite all the great teams in the AFC. This third year for Lawrence seems pretty scary for everybody in the AFC. and what he did in the playoff game. Just tremendous. I don't know. Like, are there opinions on Lawrence? It seems like

usually there are a lot of, you know, takes when it comes to a number one overall draft pick quarterback, but it feels like we've all decided like, no, no. Okay. Last year was what he's supposed to be. He's going to be good and we'll go forth. Uh, I think he does take another step forward and his connection with Doug Peterson. We saw that last year. So, uh, they should be a really good team this year and he should build on his pro bowl season from last year. All right, let's go to the next one the next one is that only two teams from the AFC West would make the postseason Kansas City and the LA Chargers oh I'll give myself for the um for the Trevor Lawrence take I will give myself a um seven out of ten I think it was pretty

predictable that he would improve under Doug Peterson it wasn't a I think it was pretty predictable that he would improve under Doug Peterson. It wasn't a guarantee, but it was pretty predictable. So I'm not going to give myself too much credit. And I think, Derek, you make a really good point that Trevor Lawrence seems to be very good at handling things like this. For somebody of his his ilk being the number one pick and everything else to not at any point have a meltdown. Well, urban Meyer was his coach. I mean,

pretty impressive. And Ken says, hashtag not a bust. I mean, I agree with that. Hey, look, everyone is afraid of drafting quarterbacks.

You know, we should also not just talk about Christian ponder, but also talk about the drafted quarterbacks that have worked out because it's always possible that it goes either way. All right, back to the bold prediction about the AFC West. This was a winner. And this was a great winner. I think that only Kansas City and the Chargers would make the playoffs because I just was having a lot of trouble believing that the Denver Broncos in year one of Russell Wilson with Nate Hackett as the head coach, who I just didn't really understand other than they had hired him maybe to try and woo Aaron Rodgers. And when it didn't work, it was like, okay, well, I guess he's our head coach, but he was not very experienced and had not called the plays really

wasn't in charge in green Bay. And I guess you could say the same for Kevin O'Connell, but at least his team won a Superbowl with Matthew Stafford. It just, I was skeptical of that. He didn't have a lot of success as Jacksonville's offensive coordinator outside of what that one year with Blake Bortles, where they had the great defense in 17. So I was skeptical of that. And the Raiders were clearly a team that was going to regress. The Raiders had made the playoffs with a negative point differential. They hired, I think one of the most proven to be bad coaches in the NFL and Josh McDaniels. That was to me, this was a pretty good prediction because people were putting so much on Denver is like, this is the team and all that. But the big difference, and I don't know if I wrote this, I'm going to take a look. Did I

write this? No, I didn't. Yeah, I didn't write this, but I think I thought this, that BK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett probably didn't get enough credit during the Russell Wilson era because he's Russell Wilson. And so everyone talked about Russell Wilson and I think they understood that Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were good, but how much of it was them? And then also Wilson, he was not the same guy the year before and this has happened many times throughout history where a team gets somebody hoping they'll turn into who they were a couple years ago and in the NFL that doesn't always happen so I'll say I will say that is a 8 out of 10 that only two teams would make the AFC West playoffs and for the next one I'll have to have you guys judge this one and how good

it was. The Eagles will win the NFC East. And look at this back to back. How about these two takes? And trust me, there's some bad ones coming, but I'm really proud of these. I predicted that the Eagles would make the NFC East or win the NFC East and that the Giants would have a tough decision on Daniel Jones by the end of the year. And both of those things are exactly what happened. The Eagles clearly were the best team in the East, although the Cowboys were very good in the regular season as well. And the Giants did have a tough decision on Daniel Jones. He kind of forced their hand that they had to sign him to a contract extension.

Ken is giving me a 9.6. Thank you, Ken. I feel like both of those back-to-back combined, that those two predictions deserve to be considered together, like a 9 out of 10. Individually, I think you could see that the Eagles had added a lot of talent and that Jalen Hurts could take a step forward when you bring in an elite receiver like A.J. Brown, that that would have an impact. But going into the season,

even from the Eagles, and don't let them tell you different because there has been all sorts of rumors that the Eagles were trying to trade for Russell Wilson, that they looked into Tom Brady and then Hertz took the big step forward and they reached the Superbowl. So even they weren't sure what Jalen Hertz was going to be, but they certainly knew that their roster was ready to go to the Superbowl. And that's probably why they were considering even more proven quarterback options. But Daniel Jones, and that was another one too. Go look at Daniel Jones' stats before last season. Just pretty much flat out bad.

And Brian Dable made him into a runner, which is very clever. I have a lot of respect for Brian Dable. I don't know if they're going to win again this year. In fact, I would kind of guess that they won't. They had some luck luck just like the Vikings did. And their defense was a little spotty. And there's the issues with contracts and Saquon Barkley and all that stuff, all that stuff that muddies the water. But I got to say, you should be impressed with Brian Dable in his first year to make Daniel Jones into a runner the way he did

and utilize that part of his game. It got as much out of that offense as they possibly could have considering they didn't have great receivers. And they did have a difficult decision on him because he wasn't great, but he was good and he won a playoff game. And then he got a contract that was not the 50 million that Kyler Murray got. He got a contract much more reflective of kind of a middling quarterback, which that was an interesting development from this year that a player like Derek Carr, a player like Daniel Jones, they got more middle quarterback contracts. So it was a tough decision for them. It ultimately ends up with him.

Sorry, I just looked at the next take. This is not a good one. But it ends up with him with a multi-year contract that is still not totally locked in. So those are my good takes. And that's all for tonight, folks. So we don't have to look at the next two, which are really horrendous takes. One, that Andrew Booth Jr. would be the starting cornerback by the end of the season. No.

No, he was not. He was injured is maybe what I should have predicted, but I don't like to, oh my gosh, all three of these takes in a row. The next three are all awful. Andrew Booth Jr. not the starting corner by the end of the season. That might be a bold prediction for this year, but I think Makai Blackman coming out of camp and being the starting corner might be a little more bold or at least a shade of bold. The next one after that, so that didn't work out. Andrew Booth Jr. now has this year to try to figure it out and become the starter, but he did not become the starter during the season.

With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, the Panthers will finish second in the NFC South. Well, not with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but you know, the Panthers actually won some games last year. It wasn't as horrible as it started out. So let me look, I'm trying to do, I'm trying to remember how the NFC South officially finished up. Were they second? Did the Panthers end up second? They did.

So I did get half of that, right? So that's not totally horrific that the Panthers were second, but just not with Baker Mayfield as their quarterback, they traded him away. And yeah, yeah. Already seeing in the comments, making fun of this next one. Trey Lance will win 10 games, but throw for under 3,500 yards. Pretty tough, pretty ice cold takes there for me going into last year. And I hadn't seen Trey Lance practice much after I did against the Vikings.

I was a little skeptical that even this would work out, but I did get one part of it. So maybe this is not quite that horrific is that the 49ers have one heck of a team. And so part of my logic was that the 49ers could set up Trey Lance successfully, that he would run a lot and he would try, you know, he would get them to some wins and try to take advantage of a good defense and playmakers. Someone got them to over 10 games. It just was not Trey Lance. The accumulation of them has a little bit of truth to it and had some logic to it that the Panthers were maybe a tad better than people were talking about them winning like two games.

And that, you know, Trey Lance, had he stayed healthy, maybe does win 10 games. I don't know if he wins as many as Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo did together. It might have been 10 while he had, you know, some of those learning curve type of struggles. But yeah, yeah, that one didn't exactly turn out. And none of those three did. The next one, however, did. Oh, whoa. Okay.

These next two, these next two are fire. What a roller coaster this is. And here's the thing. I didn't look at these before the show. I wanted to get my immediate reactions to what I wrote. And of course, since it was written like last July, I have no idea what I wrote. The Rams will win less than 10 games.

Boom, nailed that one. They were just screaming for regression. I mean, that was a team that very clearly from the outset of the 2022 season, they were going all in. That's what they were doing on 2022. They were getting Odell Beckham. They were getting Vaughn Miller.

They were going for broke, knowing that 2020, or I'm sorry, for 2021, and that 2022 did not exist in their minds. And that's the bleep them picks and all that stuff. That's because they didn't care about anything beyond 2022.

And had they not won, we would have been talking about the Stafford to the Rams. I mean, imagine if, you know, Tampa Bay had come back and Tom Brady and they won against the Rams in that game. That would be an all time disaster of a move for Matthew Stafford. And that's the thin line of, of the narrative. I guess it was this close. It was one bad call by Todd Bowles away. This is, you know, never go full Rams is indeed what Casey said. And, you know, I kind of agree. I don't agree with him in about never. I do agree with him about maybe that's not a great idea unless you're really sure about it. And they had Aaron Donald probably in one of the last great years of his career. He'll still be great. But Aaron Donald getting older. So his prime starting to fade, even if he's still great's not like 20 sack aaron donald maybe in the future we'll see but it's there's only so long you can be that guy and you have an opportunity

to get beckham you've got a great coach great coaching staff a healthy team an awesome offensive line and they went for it and they got it and that flag flies forever they can never be criticized for what they did but there was a pretty clear plan there that was pointing to regression. So I nailed that one and, uh, Rams should have just retired and dropped the mic. Yeah. I mean, remember the rumors that if they won that a bunch of people were going to retire. And I think that, um, I think they probably thought about it. Derek, I know you were quoting Quasey. I know that that's what he said in the USA Today piece. Yeah.

And I think, look, there will be a point where the Vikings should want to go full Rams. And last year was a little bit ish, right? I mean, they did a lot of the same type of stuff. It just didn't work out the same way. And they had to tear it all down. He said, you know, don't go full rams but they did trade away a second rounder for tj hockinson which can be a now and later move but it's not yet until they sign him and they did bring in zadaria smith for exactly one year

they did have to tear down a lot of pieces i mean you know they kind of went all in and they only had a couple draft picks this year because of, you know, some trades. So maybe he did go like 80 percent Rams on last season. And the next one in line is a good one. So I'll give myself some credit on that because I think the Rams still last year were thought to be a good team going into the season. I would give myself like an eight out of 10 for that one. This next one, I'll give a little bit less that Cliff Kingsbury would be fired at the end of the season. Now they were in the playoffs the year before. And so I guess it's a, it's a good take that Cliff Kingsbury would be fired. But I, I think if you've been listening to the show for long enough,

one of the things that is, it's my superpower in life. I believe everybody has one. Everybody has something they're good at. For some people, it makes them a lot of money. Like if you're, you know, the Wembin Yana guy in basketball and he's seven foot five and he can shoot and pass or whatever, uh, you know, okay, well that's going to earn him a lot of money over his life. Probably maybe your talent isn't that, but you, you have a talent and you know what mine is. The thing that I was blessed with my DNA, I can see bad coaching from like 400 miles away. That's, that's my skill in life. And with Cliff Kingsbury, it was just so clear for the entire time he was there. The guy was not a great head coach.

Wasn't really fit for the NFL game. And it was just, hey, and my track record's pretty good on this, right? Matt Rule, also fired. But with Cliff Kingsbury, they didn't do anything to make their team better. And he didn't seem to be improving as a coach. It just felt like it was, and the expectations were very high. I weighed that as well, that the expectations for Cliff Kingsbury were very high after having two thirds of a great season the year before and Kyler Murray

playing well, that they were going to expect him to go deep in the playoffs. So the Cliff Kingsbury getting fired and the Rams winning less than 10 games, eight out of 10 for those combined. All right. Onto the next two predictions. Oh, we did. Okay. On this and really good on this. So the next two, Derek, your, your superpower is quoting pop culture references. Feel free to drop anybody else's superpower in the comments. Not that lucrative at all. Well, it could be. I mean, there have been comedians that that's really all they do

is they just make jokes about pop culture. And so maybe that's where you, maybe you missed your calling and it could have been that lucrative. Maybe you could have been a star. From Horse Feathers, we need a pie chart of your good takes, kind of okay, and busts. Yeah, what is the percentage? Someone should have been doing analytics on this show. Let's see.

So far, I think it's been right down the middle where it's been some like 20. Well, what's right down the middle? 33% have been like pretty darn good. 33% were kind of, man, not that bold anyway. And you were close. And then 33% were, what were you thinking? You're a dope. You don't know anything. So it's been, it's been very well distributed. I'm really enjoying this because of it. So the next prediction was the Vikings surprising loss comes against the Jets. This is only like a five out of 10 cold. It might even be a six out of 10

cold take because they came really darn close to losing to the Jets. And that was a game that everybody thought they were going to win because Zach Wilson is bad but Zach Wilson didn't play and they almost lost to Mike White that's as good of a cold take as you can come up with when the Jets were a team that everybody was picking to uh you know be kind of bad last year and everybody was picking the Vikings to win when we did our W's and L's when the schedule came out and so to say hey this is the one that's going to surprise you all. And then they came really close, really close. Uh, and the next one is a very good take, which is that Justin Fields will still have questions about being the franchise guy in Chicago. That's a, but that's

also like a six out of 10, because I think that was kind of obvious. The roster was going to be bad and Fields was still going to have issues. Although I think if you go back and look at what Chicago people were writing last year, that he was going to take this big step forward and everything else. And I think that that one was fairly, fairly predictable though, that they wouldn't walk out with a player like Justin Fields out of year two and say, oh yeah, we're good. Got our guy. We're all set.

But I don't know if we've made enough of this off season. The fact that the bears, it's weird to say this this but it just has been like all about aaron rogers this off season that the bears decide to trade out of the one pick to go with justin fields this is one of the most risky things that you could possibly do because if you trade away justin fields and you go with bryce young what's the chances both work out. Is it even at this point, it might even be higher with Bryce young because we've actually seen Justin Fields and it's not that good. And putting all of your eggs in that basket is the decision that will make or break Ryan poles possibly, or they'll lose all their games and draft Caleb Williams. I don't know. That seems like

the nightmare scenario for the Vikings is that they lose all their games and draft Caleb Williams. I don't know. That seems like the nightmare scenario for the Vikings is that they lose all their games and draft Caleb Williams. But I think more likely than not is that they won't lose all their games, but they'll come out with seven wins and still not be sure that might be, I might repeat that one. I might repeat the, uh, in my predictions when I write this column this year is that they still won't really be sure and might be looking back going, maybe we should have just gone with Bryce Young. All right. The next two predictions. So I'll give myself a decent grade on those, maybe like a six out of 10 on the Jets, the surprising loss coming to the Jets. And they almost did. And then Justin Fields with questions. All right. Next two is that the bears will win five games. I gave them too much credit, although they tanked against the Vikings.

So there is that. But yeah, that they'll win five games. You know, they won three. They're not bad. I mean, I was really thinking that they were going to be quite awful and that Tom Brady will have a quarterback rating of 95 or lower, but the bucks still win 10 games. What was Tom Brady's quarterback rating last year? Let's find out. He was not very good last year, but I got to find what his exact quarterback rating is because it's not that hard to have a quarterback rating above, oh, it was a 90.

Okay, nailed it. And they did not win 10 games though. They only won eight. So I missed on that part of it. So I missed on that part. But that was a weird off season. Isn't it funny how fast things go by in the NFL that are totally wild and weird and crazy. And then we just go on to the next wild and weird and crazy thing And then we just go on to the next wild

and weird and crazy thing. Sometimes you just want to stop and be like, wait, wait, wait. The Dolphins owner tried to get Tom Brady to buy into the Dolphins ownership, then to come out of retirement and play for the Dolphins. And then after the NFL found out, he had to go back and play for the Bucs and his nfl found out he had to go back and

play for the bucks and his wife divorced him because he wouldn't stop playing football what that all happened and that played into that uh prediction that tom brady would still find a way to win games still made the playoffs had i written made the playoffs it would have been uh good but i think both of those are off enough to be a six out of 10 and have enough truth to be a six out of 10 now here. Oh gosh. Okay. Here comes some toughies. Here comes some toughies. Here comes some bad looks for me. Delvin Cook will rush for under a thousand yards, but catch 60 plus passes. Those things are both wrong and really didn't even come close to being right. Delvin ran for over a thousand yards. My logic was that they were going to throw all the time

and that Delvin was just going to be a bigger part of that passing game. And we believed that last year coming out of minicamp and it just never materialized. I don't know exactly why. They couldn't ever seem to get the screen game going. Maybe that was blocking. Maybe it was Delvin. They never really tried him in other roles, in the slot or in motion or anything like that.

And they did still lean on him in running situations almost entirely. But there are some really bad takes on this list and it looks like one good one upcoming, but we need to look at these. The Vikings' biggest win will come against Dallas. That was my prediction. That was my prediction. Was it 41 to three? What was the score? I was a couple of games off on that one that it would come against Dallas. Let me read what I wrote. What did I say? Why did I think vikings hit a tough patch in the schedule when they go up against dallas beating the cowboys should swing their playoff chances this time dallas won't have a secret weapon cooper rush okay that's a funny line but that's as bad of

a prediction as you could ever make is that that would be their biggest win of the season and it turned out to be though one week off i was so convinced that they would not beat Buffalo that I didn't even want to go there. And I was thinking that they would be coming off a loss in Buffalo, come charging out, beat Dallas, and back into the playoff race. That is not even remotely accurate. And the next one is that Irv Smith Jr. would become the fourth highest paid tight end in the NFL prior to 2023. Horse feathers. Were you on a diet Dr. Pepper?

Maybe. I got my diet Dr. P here tonight with me, and it's guiding me through these tough times as I look back at my old predictions here. Let's talk about the Irv Smith one after I take a sip. Um, I really thought that Irv Smith Jr. was, and by the way, the cold takeness of the Delvin one is like a four because he didn't run for that many yards in a thousand maybe a three the biggest win to come against Dallas is a zero out of ten that is the worst possible prediction you could ever make not only did they lose they lost by 38 or whatever it was and okay but the Irv Smith Jr. won and we'll get to 25 and then tomorrow night I'll be more punctual I promise around

eight o'clock 8 15 I'll go through the other 25 because it's been really fun and you guys heckling me is great and keep doing that so anyway the Irv Smith one I really felt like he was going to be a good fit in that offense they were were going to throw a lot, a lot of attention toward Jefferson. Maybe Adam Thielen wouldn't be the same guy. And really, I mean, when you looked at the Rams, their tight end was their second leader in receptions. So I thought if Irv Smith Jr. gets the same sort of offense, that he's going to be a second option the same way that Tyler Higbee was for Cooper Cup, and he's going to do really well option the same way that tyler higby was for cooper cup and he's going to do really well but they're not going to resign him because they've got to sign

jefferson and so forth and he'll hit the free agent market somebody will go completely nuts for herb smith jr and that's how he'll end up being the fourth highest paid tight end in the nfl he got a contract from cincinnati but not to be the highest fourth highest paid tight end in the NFL. He got a contract from Cincinnati, but not to be the highest fourth highest paid tight end in the NFL. And we'll see how it works out. I mean, that's one to kind of keep an eye on, I guess how he does in Cincinnati, because right now he's scheduled to be their starting tight end is the way that it looks on most depth charts that I've seen. I haven't looked deeply. I've just been poking around like what's going on with other teams. And his name keeps coming up of Cincinnati being excited about him.

And trust me, my Cincinnati friends, I've been there. The preseason excitement for Irv Smith Jr. is usually the best part. And Joseph, he was so bad, they traded for Hawkinson. Well, he was injured. That was one of the main reasons they traded for Hawkinson. Well, he was injured. That was one of the main reasons they traded for Hawkinson is that he got hurt. But a big part of that Irv Smith formula is that he's usually hurt. And neither injury was actually really anything he did. It was one bad luck thing on his thumb.

And then somebody fell into him. I think Alexander Madison in pass pro just got knocked into him and he got hurt, but it is part of the Irv Smith Jr. story. Maybe next year he'll hit the free agent market again. Did he sign a one-year deal? Maybe next year he will become the fourth highest after a huge season with Joe Burrow. I don't know. But that one, that's probably a two out of ten that's a pretty cold take all right let's go back to our list ah now we're doing much better number 22 on our list Christian Derrissaw will make the Pro Bowl got it nailed that one what did I write about that Derrissaw went through a lot of injuries last season came out with a good rookie year he's healthy this offseason and put season and can put all

the physical gifts together to form a very good left tackle. Boom. There we go. I think what showed last year to me about Christian Derrissaw was how much the guy wants it. He's a very chill dude. If you meet Christian Derrissaw, he's very relaxed. And I wonder if his laid back nature, which I've actually talked to offensive linemen about, and a lot of them like left tackles. A lot of them are like that. A lot of them have told me that, Hey, like tackles sometimes have to be a little more relaxed and less intense because they, they kind of go through a lot out there. And if you're too hot and too cold, if you're riding a roller coaster of emotions and you get beat, it can pile up on you. So a lot of

the best tackles ever are pretty calm. And I think like Willie Roof was that way, and there's probably some more we can think of. But I liked what Derrissaw showed right away in training camp. It was every day when he was going up against Z'Darrius Smith and when he went up against Nick Bosa. And I think I wrote this before training camp, but I just felt like by the end of his 2021 year that he had shown all those physical gifts. And it was just like, if this guy puts it together,

I am getting tens, like the dunk contest, and they hold up the tens for that Christian Derrissaw prediction. Thank you everyone. Thank you. Don't ever bring up that Dallas one. Only talk about the Derrissaw prediction. But yeah, I mean, you go back to this time last year, we're asking, Hey, what's Christian Derrissaw going to be? And the answer now is a guy who makes the Pro Bowl like every year is uh the expectation thank you thank you for all all of the tens on that i got a couple of more here to go through and then we can join again tomorrow night i'm sure you guys have things to do uh on monday so

let's see the vikings will register under 40 sacks as a defense i think that's right i'm gonna have to check and it might hold on it might like to go to pro football reference crush the stream quality and i'm sorry if that happens but i gotta check this how many sacks did they have because it's like using too much internet um let's see let's see how many sacks did they have the The Vikings had, there's videos playing, 38, 38. That's a great prediction. Although one that I wouldn't give myself a 10 that the Vikings ended up with under 40 sacks because there was a question there and that was who else is going to sack the quarterback. And one thing that I knew about, um, Ed Donatello and that style of defense is that it wasn't like Brian Flores. It wasn't some sort of psychotic blitzing all over the place and,

uh, you know, crazy aggressive. It was mostly reliant on the front three, four, however you're putting that on the edge rushers on the interior rushers. And Harrison Phillips just doesn't really sack people. Um, they didn't bring in anybody to sack from the interior and they weren't going to blitz. So it was really up to two guys. So that prediction

was, I would say, I'd say seven out of 10, but not like a crazy. Um, yeah. And, and great question, Joseph, did I think they were going to be that terrible? No, I don't think so. We'll find out when I go through the, the other 25 tomorrow, if I had something in there about them being better than I thought, but I thought they were going to be, you know, a defense that had some problems. I think we were talking about, could they get to the middle of the league if they were coached well and they were not coached well so i don't think um i did not think they were going to be that bad no i i thought that they were going to be a middle of the pack defense with some major issues and they turned out to be a horrible defense with major issues um derrick i i'm getting an eight out of ten for that one from Derek.

Well, you're giving me a lot of credit, but I think that based on just what we knew about Donatello, they weren't going to get an amazing amount of sacks because they had to rely so much on two guys. All right. Two more to look for today, and then we'll reconvene tomorrow. Oh, there's a great one for tomorrow too. This is a good tease, there's a great one for tomorrow too. This is a good tease. There's a great one for tomorrow to start off number 26. So I won't show it on the screen. Let me make sure I'm not showing it.

Okay, I won't show it, but it's a good one to start off tomorrow. All right, final two of the night. Darnell Mooney will catch a hundred passes. He didn't, nope. Oh, well, I thought he was the only guy to throw to there and he probably was. And when he got hurt, they didn't. Nope. Oh, well, I thought he was the only guy to throw to there. And he probably was. And when he got hurt, they didn't have anybody. The Packers defense will rank higher than their offense. Did that happen again? Apologies. If the stream gets a little joggy here, as I'm, you know, I'm Googling things that that happens, but let me see. Did the Packers

rank higher on defense than they did offense I don't think they did I don't think they did because I don't think their defense was that good but let's find out I think that this one if this is true this is a great prediction let's see oh no they did they didn't but it was really close it was 14th on offense and 17th on defense by points that was really close that would was 14th on offense and 17th on defense by points. That was really close. That would have been a great prediction had that been true. I just, you can't just get rid of Devontae Adams

and not replace him and then think that you're going to be good. And that's what is really central to everybody thinking that Rodgers will be good in New York is that he has Garrett Wilson. And I can buy that to some extent, maybe not as hard as, uh, you know, people are doing. I don't know. Are people doing that? There's not a lot of skepticism about Rogers and maybe there should be some, but giving away

Devante Adams and then not replacing him. I guess it makes sense. Yeah. I'm only getting a five, a six in the comments, but you guys are right. Like you, you need to hold me to a high standard when it comes to these hot takes or these bold predictions from last year and our analysis. But that was 25 of them and really fun. And I hope that those watching will join again tomorrow night as we look at the other 25 bold predictions from last year and go through. Was I right? Was I wrong? What a roller coaster here tonight going through the first 25. Some great takes, some terrible takes. And then throughout the week, I'll be formulating my list of 50 bold predictions for the 2023 season.

And you guys can help with that, but I love this. I love you guys holding up the cards, like the NBA dunk contest of how hot or cold the takes were. Um, that's what makes it really fun. So if you're listening, even on the podcast feed, go to purple insider on YouTube, um, on Tuesday night, depending on when you're listening or I'm sorry, Monday, what day is it? Monday night, go on Monday night. We're also live on Tuesday night doing hot routes, but on Monday night and we'll go through the other 25 bold predictions and you can grade them live and I'll read your grades. So thanks everybody. This was really fun. I've, I enjoyed this and you know, I've, I'm not any better or worse than anybody else at predicting things, but it's fun to see when I did not look at it.

And I'm not looking at the second 25. I looked at number 26, but I'm not looking at the rest. So instant real reactions. And we'll go over them and have some fun again tomorrow. So if you've been sending fans only questions, keep doing that. The fans only questions, the episodes are not going away. We're going to keep doing those. So keep sending those.

Go to purpleinsider.com. And everybody have a great night. This was a good time. And we will do itself again. Bold to put myself out there for the takes. Yeah, well, you know, I don't want to use the word hero for going back through my old takes. But maybe I will. A pretty heroic effort.

No, I'm just kidding. All right. Thanks, everybody. We'll see you tomorrow.