Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Sam Monson breaks down Vikings' QB situation

Episode Date: September 18, 2025

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Okay, couple more questions, and then the dog does have to go out. So I will bring you Sam Monson. Also really just good conversation with Sam, check the mic, former PFF, lifelong Vikings fan. So he's been in it with you this entire time. He knows exactly what this is like. Kurt says how much different to this franchise look like if they hired Jim Harbaugh. I feel like that's a topic for July or something. I don't know.

They've won a lot of games with KOC. But last year, Harbaugh got his team to the playoffs in his first year, like KOC did. They got killed. So I don't know. Harbaugh's a good coach. KOC's a good coach. Maybe their identity's different. But, you know, we're seeing it now with them throwing the ball a little bit more now that they have good weapons.

That guy knows how to win. And I think so does KOC, but will either one of them win a championship? Will they win in the playoffs? Like, we're going to have to find out there. Skyler says, Wentz takes the Vikings to 12 and 5, and JJ is traded to the Browns this off season. I did joke with my wife to learn the name Bryce Young when the Vikings make the trade for him next year. I was kidding. But, you know, I don't know.

We just, you never really know. It's like when I started to go down that path the other day, it's hard because you can get there. You can get to this, hey, like he just never gets back on the field and then there's a quarterback competition and he doesn't win it and then what? I, because that's happened. It's happened in the league recently. You can also get to, he heals quick, starts next week and it's fine. And he goes right back to be in the guy. That's how wide of a range. This is what you get with an unproven quarterback. You get this massive range of different outcomes and nobody knows how it's going to work out.

so did they sign wence for two years i thought it was only one but i haven't looked at his contract i i was assuming it was only one harbaugh has said that mccarthy is like herbert a little different in terms of the actual arm talent herbert you know bigger but you know i think personality mccarthy's a little more outgoing they both have strong arms uh now now we've gotten to the to the trolling element where christian ponder's name comes up uh thank you timothy for breaking that streak with a 28 referring to how many points whence will have to score i haven't given my answer to that uh my answer is i think or maybe i did i think probably 24 is is the right answer because that gives a little leeway for jemar chase t higgins to do some

stuff and you still find a way to come out with the win i don't think the bengals are a joke and I'm going to have a guest on Thursday that's going to break that down. But I don't think the Bengals are just a laughing stock. I think they've got good players. Deplorable Neanderthal says, I'm always perplexed how quickly narrative shift and go back and forth weekly sometimes. The NFL, my friend, the NFL, it must be so boring to be in Buffalo or in Baltimore where you're just like, and I'm saying this tongue in cheek because you guys would love

that. But is it January yet? because I know we're going to be there. I mean, the Vikings have never had that feeling. It's always, like you said, back and forth on a weekly basis, and you never know where this thing is going to take you. So, Sam says West Phillips seemed to be surprised at questions from us yesterday about the scheme choices during the press conference. Yeah, I mean, especially he seemed a little surprised about being asked about Jordan Mason and some of the play the problem with asking west about that is that he's not calling the plays you know so if it's

kevin o'connell it's more of an o'connell question i think and he could only say like well he's been out there it's not like he hasn't been on the field um and i think he's run maybe four times in short yardage i'd like to see that be more but that's it's not like his question to answer so maybe that was why it was a little tricky he did have great explanations on the quick game though i i enjoyed that i wrote about that yesterday. So, okay, well, let me bring you this Sam Monson conversation because we talk about all the different scenarios, the situations, and where this is going to go. And I think, I think Monson is a little bit of a, maybe a little bit of a Carson Wentz believer. So here he has, Check the Mike podcast. It is one of my go-toes. So here's Sam Monson. All right, we welcome

back into the show for his 1,000th appearance. Sam Monson, check the mic podcast, my go-to as I am driving out to TCO Performance Center to find out whatever hell awaits me out there. And then these days, I mean, you know, yesterday, Sam, I go out there thinking, oh, you know, we're going to get an update on Christian Derisaw, you know, maybe a couple other players who got banged up and on to the next football game. And oh, no, oh no, it's one of those seasons. Sam, you have followed the Minnesota Vikings since, childhood. What's up with this, man? What's up with it? You've been following it longer than I have. What's a deal here? Why does this always happen? And with J.J. McCarthy, how come every time he comes out of a game looking healthy, it actually emerges later on that, oh, by the way, he's hurt. And it's going to be longer than you think it is. And he may be down for, you know, an extended

period of time. Like last year, we came out of a preseason game being like, man, J.J. McCarthy looks great. win the starting job it's all good and then in 24 hours that went from no actually he's hurt and he's going to be down for a bit to actually you're not going to see until next year yeah i i i don't know why that's happened both times i think in this instance he probably should have gotten a little more checked out but somebody else was in the blue tent which is how this entire season has gone on is that someone's always been yeah when when we've looked down at the sideline at any given time the blue tent is up and somebody is in it for this team as they've been hit with this rash of injuries through the first two weeks. But I think that this one was probably one of those

adrenaline things that you could fight through. And then when you wake up in the morning, your leg is twice the size that it was before. So this stuff does happen. I know that people are watching the tape like Sasquatch videos. Is he really hurt? What is the team hiding? They've benched him. But Sam, I don't think that you would take a young quarterback who was one in one. through his first two games and then just say, you know what, after you had one of those games not be good, you are going to go sit down for a while. So now the recovery starts. I've been accused by some of being a little overreactionary to this and looking too far down the road. When could he even come back? And what if Wentz plays well? And do they stick with him?

So why don't you give me your whole reaction to the situation? And then we can compare in contrast. Yeah, I mean, obviously, so we're like, you know, two games into J.J. McCarthy's starting career. And unfortunately for him, he's now going to get compared to both Carson Wentz, who's going to come off the bench and come in for an injured version of McCarthy and to Sam Darnold, who's currently playing pretty well in Seattle, you know, who they let go. And there's not much, it's just an unfortunate reality that he's tied to those guys now

because of the way things work. you know from minnesota's perspective they were in a tough spot last year because of the way the season ended with sam darnall i think if it hadn't ended with those final two games i think it would have been a different outcome i think they would have found a way of moving the money around and keeping darnal in the building you know if he hadn't imploded right at the end but because he did and because the implosion was so complete and total and you know earth shattering to the foundations that he laid in the previous 14, 15 games, it changed everything. And they went, you know what, let's stick with the original plan, let's save the money,

let's use that on the offensive line, let's put J.J. McCarthy out there. And if he's, you know, learned from the sideline and developed, then we put a situation around him, well, then he can be good as well. And logically, I don't think that's, there's anything wrong with that. I think that's a reasonably sound plan and made sense. unfortunately number one there's part of it which looks like McCarthy might not be ready or at the level that some of these other young quarterbacks are at and number two he's missing a lot of that supporting cast right now which is a flaw in the plan right that all these guys are supposed to be there and the situation is great well that's not true if

christian darisaw is not out there and suddenly you're choosing between one of two left tackles that doesn't belong playing um you know protecting a young quarterback So I think these, it's definitely true that McCarthy is not playing well right now, but it's also true that his left tackle is a disaster and that he doesn't have his number two wide receiver, you know, there are things there that are not the way they're supposed to be. And that's definitely not helping matters. Right. And I think that, you know, after you came out of the first game and we all did the tape analysis

and you guys are friends with JTO Sullivan and we all watched his breakdown, I think the feeling was that the first couple of quarters, he didn't make terrible decisions. And even though everything went wrong, it wasn't entirely on him. You mentioned left tackle, but also the first game, Justin Jefferson had a shockingly bad game.

And it was like, okay, like I can kind of get that. And then he goes into Atlanta. Now it's a short week. He has a child in the middle of the week. And then comes out and looks like a guy who had a short week has barely played any football. had a child during the week, and it was just everything was a little bit slow for him.

But I was not in a spot where I was going to say, okay, folks, I'm sorry, write it in, B-U-S-T. I was not ready for that because, well, one, it's just one game. And we've seen lots of quarterbacks have one bad game. I went through it. I went through all the worst QB ratings since 2000 for the Vikings. And I found a Brad Johnson who won a Super Bowl, a Kirk Cudson. who won plenty of games, a Dante Culpeper game that went horribly wrong. This stuff happens in the NFL.

And when you looked at their schedule going forward, it's pretty favorable to win some games. So I wasn't ready to call anything on J.J. McCarthy, other than I'm a little concerned about where this is going to go from a Super Bowl perspective. Like, can you really compete in the NFC North with the Packers and what we saw from the Lions bouncing back against Chicago and crushing a team that the Vikings. barely escaped. I think there was concerns there. How far can a kid come with

accuracy right away? How far can he come with his processing and make it quicker during a season? But I wasn't ready to make any major conclusions with him through those two games. Yeah. I mean, to me, I think a lot of it depends, because obviously you only hear the sort of PR spin from the team, right? It's like, oh, the team, they think J.J. McCarthy's amazing. Like, he's the guy. They've got total confidence in him. It sort of depends. what the reality of that is. And I was messaging you yesterday. I'm like, when, when did they see him again after his injury, right? Because if, if they have actually sort of seen a good amount of him practicing and throwing the ball and like, if they are actually that confident in him, then you're

right. One bad game is just one bad game. And it doesn't, you know, it doesn't change that you believe this guy is really good. And, you know, he can be the quarterback going forward. And, you know, you just work to put things right. If that's all kind of just spin, like that's just what you say when you're, when this is your quarterback now, of course, you like,

you guys haven't seen him like behind the scenes. He's amazing. He's a leader. He's masterful in practice, blah, blah, blah. Like if that's all just the stuff that you put out there because this is now you're starting quarterback and actually they don't know that much about

JJ McCarthy, then it may change things quicker because like the more meaningful data is what he's doing in real games, you know, because in the regular season. And if you don't actually have that much sort of practice data counteracting that, then I think your opinion on the guy can change pretty quickly, particularly when, look, Carson Wentz, his career has gone off the rails pretty hard and he's got quite a lot of bad tape on his resume at this point. However, he does also have, you know, a seriously lofty kind of draft status way back in the day. He's he's got the prototypical tools and you know all those kinds of things and kevin o'connell theoretically

is you know this kind of quarterback whisperer moniker a guy who's been able to get the rewire quarterbacks right he takes a lot of credit i think probably justifiably for changing the way kirk cousins plays the game and adapting him i don't know how quickly he can do that i don't know if it works for every quarterback but you at least have to be vaguely intrigued by the idea of Kevin O'Connell working with Carson Wentz and, you know, having him play a period of time in this offense. So the first part of that, what's really unique about it is that they had only practice time, basically, that was also witnessed by us with J.J. McCarthy because he didn't practice at all during last season. So then we see him a little bit in workouts and a little bit in OTAs.

We watch the entire training camp. And I will say that by the end of, training camp, he looked pretty well in command of the offense. There's just no way to really simulate real football when you're going against Rahim Morris, who knows the Vikings system from working with the Los Angeles Rams and didn't go so good against the Rams either time against coaches that understood what KOC could do. But the other part of it is that the offensive line being as messed up as it was, and they didn't run the ball particularly effectively with Aaron Jones or with Jordan Mason. So it's not like they say ahead of the sticks the entire day.

They needed a really good performance from their quarterback. And that was not there from them. So it was kind of a lot to ask right away. But you're right. Like the sample sizes that we're working with with JJ McCarthy, that's the trend of his entire career. Like when you have a Michael Pennix and the guy's thrown 4,000 college passes and then comes in and gives you a half a season last year or whatever,

three, four games, like that team is pretty confident in what they have. I think the Vikings walked into this not really sure what J.J. McCarthy was going to be. And I think what Kevin O'Connell thought and what the organization thought was we can sign Will Fries, Ryan Kelly. We can extend people. We can stack up the defense. And all he's got to do is be Alex Smith. And we're going to win a lot of football games. But turns out being Alex Smith is not as easy as it sounds to just be a game manager because you have to get the ball where it's supposed to go. And he was not able to do that.

that's part one part two i am intrigued by carson wents i've watched carson wents warm up and been like okay that is a big man with a big arm and last time i checked the last big man with big arm was last year and the guy won a bunch of games in sam darnold so i don't think he's as good as sam darnell but this is somebody who's won a lot of football games in his career and that's where it gets complicated though sam is if they win their next three which are against jay Browning, broke Aaron Rogers, and then Joe Flacco slash Dylan Gabriel slash Eric Zire slash Seneca Wallace. I don't know who's starting for Cleveland at that point. You can go three and oh with Carson Wentz. And then what do you do? Because a lot of fans are saying to me,

no, no, no, no, you just put back in JJ no matter what. But this isn't really a season to just find out about J.J. McCarthy. This is a season to win. Yeah. And it also comes back to, So number one, what kind of confidence do they have him from the time they've seen him? The other element there is what did they think of him when they drafted it, right? Because draft priors are still relevant for these guys as well when they're so young and so inexperienced. Like, and again, you only ever hear the kind of the story that's put out there as opposed to what may have been the truth, what may may not have been the truth for these quarterbacks that were drafted like four, five, and six of that group. because you know guys have gone off the board you don't really know what teams were trying to do what they wanted to do in an optimal world you know what they ended up succeeding to do the one thing

i think we are pretty confident in is atlanta loved michael peddicks right and that was their guy you know assuming they were never going to go up and get caleb williams or whatever but like michael pennicks they loved him they went hard they got him and they drafted him way ahead of where a lot of people seem seem to expect them going i don't think we know the same thing for J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and for Bo Nix and the Broncos. I think both of those were still a little bit at the mercy of like, yeah, what they're telling you, you know. But if the Vikings feel or felt the same way about McCarthy as the Falcons did with Panics, well, then again, you've got like, you've got a much more solid bedrock of, you know, what are they

going to, how much more can they go through of growing pains? But if, like, if he was second or third choice if they actually kind of would have preferred somebody else and they settled quote unquote with McCarthy that was just the way it worked out the best option that they were able to come out of that draft with well then you know the you don't have that much like real estate before you're like shaky performances you know we've got a guy that's got hurt multiple times already we've seen one good quarter of football from them we didn't necessarily love them that much to begin with like this Carson Wentz might be good let's see what we have here I so a lot of this sort of depends on priors that we're not necessarily privy to and exist just locked away in the

building somewhere which could be you know all the way from you know there were some tools to work with here we what we roll the dice generally it was the sort of the mathematically fiscally sound thing to do in the offseason to move on from Sam Darnold, and right now this looks bad. Or it could be, we think this guy is phenomenal. You know, he's still extremely inexperienced. He's been unlucky with injuries, and we still have total confidence in him moving forward, even if, you know, we have to put him on the shelf for a month when he gets healthy from a bum ankle, right?

But as soon as he's healthy again, it's right back to JJ because he's our guy. And really, you know, it's impossible to know from the outside where they are on those, the spectrum between those two extremes. Folks, there's no way to prepare yourself for hair loss when it happens and you either end up frustrated or in denial, but I promise you that there is help and it is simple and easy. Through hymns, you could take the next step with confidence, access treatments that are made with clinically proven ingredients like finesteride and monoxidil to stop hair loss and regrow hair within three to six months, no waiting rooms, no hoops,

Just ingredients with a track record of results. Hymns offers convenient access to a range of prescription hair loss treatments with ingredients that work, including choose, oral medication, serum, sprays, whatever works for you. You shouldn't have to go out of your way to feel like yourself. Hymns brings expert care straight to you with 100% online access to personalized treatments that put your goals first. There's no hidden fees, no surprise costs, just real personalized care.

on your schedule for simple online access to personalize and affordable care for hair loss, ED, weight loss, and more, visit hymns.com slash purple insider. That's hymns.com slash purple insider for your free online visit. That's hymns.com slash purple insider. Individual results may vary based on studies of topical oral monoxidil and finesteroide. Prescription required. See the website for important safety information. Right. I mean, even when we talk about training camp, we watch from the sideline and we see whether passes are completed or not and sacks are just like, oh, well, you know, he held on to it a little too long there. That's fine. Sacks in real life are you get destroyed and ripped to the ground and hurt your ankle, although he heard it on a run. But the, you know, the point being that Kevin O'Connell would take the all the tape every single day and go through and study every single detail is you really getting it or not. And he would know a lot better. if J.J. McCarthy was actually on point or if he had a bunch of concerns going into the game. And as you mentioned, they're not ever going to bring that stuff up.

Though my feeling, though, from now being with this situation for two years, was that they were 100% comfortable with J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix as their quarterbacks. And they were going to take, now, I don't know which one. If they were both on the board, maybe it would have been Pennix. I really don't know. KOC will never say, and I don't think any of us will no, except for him and probably Quasi. And it might be just him. I'm not sure. And then the owners. So either way, but I know that they were comfortable with that.

But the idea was this guy is very raw. And it's going to take a lot of work to get him to be the NFL starting quarterback he could become. And when you see him in practice, you see the tools. In fact, you watch the games. You see the tools. You see how hard he could throw the football. You also see the lack of touch on the football.

You see how fast he can. run, but then you see him get hurt while he's running twice. And this is the tough part about a young raw quarterback. And I was thinking about Alex Smith and how Alex Smith did not become a good quarterback who took a team to the NFC championship until he was 27 years old. And this is the problem that is created by the National Football League in the salary cap that makes things both interesting and frustrating is that you can't develop a kid for three years. And you can't just say like, oh, we'll keep Sam Darnold. It'll be fine. Because you have the the rookie quarterback contract. And you also have a world filled with complete insanity,

which every single mistrow by Sam Darnold, if he was starting, this is why I think they had no other choice. Like if he was starting, every single bad game, every single miss throw would have come along with JJ Chance from the crowd, Stephen A. Smith and the shouty shows screaming at the top of their lungs that they need to play the other kid. Like even in New York, I mean, I think they probably handled it right with Jackson Dart, not throwing him right in. But after one bad week of Russell Wilson. It's like, get rid of Wilson. We got to go to the kid. It's a very difficult environment. So you kind of had to figure this out trial by fire. And now you can't figure it out because he's on the shelf. And now what do you do big, the big picture? Because if

Wence plays well, do you go back to him anyway because you have to find out? Or can you not go back to him? Because Wence is playing too well. But then if Wence ultimately struggles, which we know he will, he'll have his ups and downs. Then do you pull the trigger and go back? back to him. I think now Kevin O'Connell is in a very dicey spot. Yeah, it's a tough situation. I mean, you know, Colin Cowherd and Tom Brady had an interesting kind of discussion about like the world of developing quarterbacks these days. And Cowherd's theory was, you know, something like a couple of games in a year two, right? A couple of years games in a year two. If you don't see it, it's time to move on already. And I think there's something to that. Obviously, there's always

nuance with this stuff. But I think it's not the world of quarterback developing now is not the way it was when Brady came into the league or when Alex Smith came into the league. Like the college game and the NFL game have moved so close together now that I think there is something to this idea of if you don't see it pretty early, it's probably not there. Now, you can definitely change that calculus where, you know, if the guy is extremely raw like an Anthony Richardson or has extremely low sample size of sort of play or high volume play or came from a weird offense or whatever, you know, there are reasons why you might want to stick with them beyond that. There's also definitely truth to what Brady was countering with, which is, look, if the

coaching is bad development once they get into the NFL, well, then that changes everything. Like, if you can screw up a kid, even if he was going to be good right out of the gate coming from a college offense, if the coordinator or the quarterback coach or whatever is bad, So the whole thing I think is pretty complicated, but for a guy like McCarthy and the Vikings, the problem they have is they're expected to be good and win games. So now you're in this tough spot where even if you think he's going to be the guy, you don't have, you might not have that many games to kind of play around with. But I think if they're winning games with Carson Wentz, you can easily talk yourself and probably the public into the idea of, he can still develop from the sideline. Like year one was a write-off, right?

We couldn't see him practice. He couldn't practice. He was rehabbing from an injury. You know, sure, you can take mental reps and, you know, he can learn the system from a classroom. But we couldn't do anything with him, right? You can say now, okay, when he comes back, even if we're going to stick with Carson Wentz for a while. Because apparently, like, if the offense clicks immediately with Carson Wentz there, it looks like Darnel last year. You know, Kevin O'Connell has done it again.

Weaved his magic with a veteran quarterback and this team looks like a, you know, a 14-win team again. Well, then you can say, okay, that's fine. Carson's cooking. We're going to leave, we're going to leave that the way it is. McCarthy's going to practice. He's going to get reps. He's going to learn from the sideline. And then eventually we're going to turn this thing back over to him. Like, this is not the end for J.J. McCarthy. It's just we've changed how this development is going to look like. Instead of learning whilst under fire, you know, from in live reps, where things were not going well, you're going to learn from the sideline because the guy ahead of you is doing too well to sit down. If we follow the natural progression based on history of this thing, and it's just crazy

how it gets out of hand so fast with young quarterbacks. And I listened to that Brady and Cowherd thing as well. And one thing I thought was, well, the Vikings check all of the boxes of being able to teach quarterbacks how to play. I mean, that at least we know. So we don't have to say, and I know a lot of fans do, but we don't have to say, well, you know, KOC, he's the blame for all of this. He didn't call the right plays and et cetera.

And I get it. And I had as many critiques about some of the play calling against Atlanta. At the same time, we have a big enough sample size to know that this operation and Josh McCown, like these are gentlemen who know what they're doing when it comes to quarterbacks, but it does, it goes off the rails so quickly with someone like a young quarterback because you look at San Francisco, Tray Lance comes in, he plays, he gets. hurt. They go back to Jimmy Garapolo. He gets hurt. Brock Purdy comes in. He plays pretty well. The next year, they're just having a quarterback competition in training camp. And usually that's the next natural

step to this thing. If Carson Wentz ends up playing the rest of the way. Like, I agree that I don't think it's a bad outcome for J.J. McCarthy's whole career. He is 22 years old. If he were to sit for this entire year, I never thought that was bad. I got assaulted for saying that, you know, bringing back Sam Darnold wouldn't be the worst thing in the world because McCarthy's 22 years old. And now everybody hates that idea when it's somebody else. But I don't think it's a terrible idea. I think though that next year would end up being the we're really going to find out if J.J. McCarthy can play. But it's hard to work that with the timeline because you have so many guys who are very expensive on the older side, have injury histories, all these things, the risks that

they took. And I think that these, it's a, it's a hard thing to make work when you have a very young quarterback and a team that is completely stacked, unless the quarterback is great. And then you're good. But if he's not, then you're sitting there with a great team. And it's like Kyle Bowler, Ravens or something where you're going, like, we just don't really know what to do with this. Well, it's like, it's a classic kind of cash 22 situation where the teams that have the runway to let a quarterback be bad for a while and grow. and develop are usually bad football teams and it's it's a bad situation to put the kid in the first place so it's all you know it's almost sort of damaging that he has that kind of time

the teams that are good enough for the quarterback to to have a good situation to be in well they need him to be good right away like they don't have the time for this guy to learn on the job and you know be good one week and bad the next week or good in the first half and bad in the second half or like they need this guy to be good right away because this is a team capable of winning things right away and yet that's the environment you want the quarterback getting reps in and learning in because it's the best situation for him to actually develop that's it is a really tough dynamic where and that's where you get I think you know the darnals of the world the gino smiths of the world where it it flames out it goes bad and then these guys have got to go out to the

wilderness for a few years before they luck into, you know, another opportunity somewhere. It's not like they, you know, they earn their stripes and now somebody's going to give them a legit second opportunity. It's like weird stuff happens. A guy demands a trade or a guy gets hurt and you just go, oh, quick, throw in Sam Darnel or Gino Smith or whatever. And then, oh, look, this guy's actually good. Like, it's tough. Like those guys effectively busted out of the NFL and then circumstance put them back into a starting gig. And maybe Carson Went, is about to be the next guy, right? Like Carson Wentz effectively has busted out of his position as a starting quarterback, certainly as a franchise quarterback, and now he's going to get an

opportunity to have another crack at it. And I mean, maybe it won't go any better than the last couple did. But equally, maybe Carson Wentz, like maybe this is the time where he's actually had a chance to sit for a while, develop like whatever. But it's a really difficult situation now where you don't have time anymore to learn on the job. You have to either be, you have to either learn from the sideline, if that's even possible, or you just need to be good the second you get an opportunity. The conclusion I've come to here with this situation is that everything is on the table. If you told me that next year, the Vikings were starting Carson Wentz week one, I wouldn't be surprised. If you told me that J.J. McCarthy came back in the Cleveland game, lit it up and took

this team to the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised. I think anything could happen here. So let's let's just let's go over that situation, though, because let's say the Vikings go two and one here, Wence doesn't play all that well in these next three games. And then they come back, they're going to play Philly at home after the by week. And J.J. McCarthy's 100% with his ankle. And they decide, you know what, Wence didn't play that well anyway. And let's get back to the plan with J.J. McCarthy. How much should we let the Atlanta game. influence what we think he can be if he comes back. I think that there's a lot to be concerned about.

I also think they're without Jordan Addison and Christian Darrisaw. And if the idea is that you're going to have the most stacked offense in the NFL, well, you kind of have to have the most stacked offense in the NFL to fit the idea. So how high can we set the bar for this team if McCarthy comes back and they get back on track with what they wanted to do? I think we definitely need. to see this offense with Christian Darasol back in the lineup. I mean, you know, it's tough because everyone deals with injuries and they're a part of the NFL, but the offensive line is huge. Like the drop

off between an elite left tackle, which Christian Darisaw is, you know, wherever you want to rank him in the top left tackle conversation, he's top five somewhere, right? So he's one of the best left tackles in the NFL. The drop off between him and any general second team offensive linemen in the NFL is massive and i don't think the vikings have a particularly strong second team you know offensive line either so it's it's going to be about as big as it gets you're going from i don't have to worry about left tackle at all i can match him up with anybody we're going to face to anybody is a problem now like it is a guaranteed problem at left tackle every single snap and that that changes everything if you want to put help towards that side you have to there's plays you can't call there's entire

sections of the playbook that have to get junked or adjusted or you say, no, look, we just run the offense and that guy's got to survive on his own and he won't, right? And you'll be, there'll be pressure coming off that side almost all the time. We've seen good NFL quarterbacks get broken by that kind of outcome. Baker Mayfield, when he had Greg Robinson as his left ankle in Cleveland, it took him half a season to just become non-functional. I mean, he, by halfway through the year, every snap, he was like panic rolling out to the right regardless of what the play was because he's like, Greg Robinson is my left tackle. There is pressure coming. I'm getting away from it. So it's the kind of problem that's big enough to destroy an offense by itself.

Then you add in, you know, no Jordan Addison still. It's your number two wide receiver just isn't in the lineup. Ryan Kelly goes down with a concussion. That's a problem. That's maybe your second best offensive linemen or third, but he's also the guy dealing with, you know, blocking calls in the middle and all those kinds of things. Those are three of the most important. players in the offense and they're not there. So I think we have to see what it looks like with those guys in there before you can get an idea of like what is the ceiling with J.J. McCarthy does, you know, is he, because he's a young quarterback is, are his negative tendencies, you know, pouring gas on a fire that's, that's a

problem or are his negative tendencies a problem anyway, right? Like is the fact that he's holding on the ball too long that he's sort of too slow processing right now, relatively inaccurate just certainly not dialed in consistently is all that a problem even when you've got a top tier left tackle and the center's there and a number two wide receivers there or is it like it just looks catastrophic when those guys are not in the lineup right and that's the thing that i feel like we have to see is him with dare saw in there because it wasn't just oh well that guy can survive over there the Vikings have had a few swing tackles over the years where you're like okay well i mean he's bad but he's not that bad right that is not the case

with Justin's school. This is T.J. Clemmings level, as you said, every single snap, you should be terrified for your life because he can get beat in an instance. They talk about two and a half seconds. I mean, some of those wins against school were just immediate, less than that. So that's not an environment for a young quarterback. That also makes me think about like this injury. And even if it is not the most serious injury of all time, you don't want him injured trying to play if Drensaw is not going to be back and ready to go. Let me, Let me get you to give me a little pie chart action. You ever done a pie chart on the show before?

No. No, you never done a pie chart. Okay. Well, you know how pie charts work, right? You worked in analytics. Okay. I'm familiar with the concept. Okay, all right.

So here's your four options for the pie chart. And for those uninitiated, it has to add up to 100%. You give percentage chances. So four potential outcomes for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings. They get it together and they win the north. and compete for a Super Bowl. They are a decent team that ends up making the playoffs, maybe nine or ten wins.

They miss the playoff seven or eight. Just all this stuff adds up. It doesn't work out. Or it goes swirling all the way down the drain. What are the percentage chances of each one of those outcomes? I think it probably looks, you know, like a bell curve. I think the middle two are where most of the pie is. I would say at this point,

there's like a 5% chance that they're a dominant team and they win the north in as much because the Packers look really, really good and the Lions might be very good as well, even though they stumbled out of the gate. So I just think the division's too tough for them to be that good, even if they kind of get it together. I think there's a reasonable chance that they're good and, you know, make the playoffs and are a wildcard team and not as, maybe not as good as they were a year ago, but similar outcomes because of the way that season ended, you know, they get there and they're good, but not good enough, sort of like last year's Green Bay team as well. I think there's maybe a slightly bigger chance now that they are not quite good

enough and they don't make the playoffs because, again, you know, Green Bay and Detroit probably should make the playoffs from that division. So you're already down a wildcard spot and, you know, battling with some other teams for that. And then I think, There's, I don't think it's that likely. But for a start, I think the defense is too good for them to just totally implode. Yeah, I think so, too. You didn't give exact percentages. I know maybe doing the math on the fly is a little challenging for you.

Right. 5% that they're, 5% that the top outcome, 10% the bottom one. That leaves me with, let's say, 45% for the non-playoff one. and then one of my life with 40 for the other one. Yep, yep, yeah. Okay, that's a good. See, that's a good pie chart. That was well done.

And I tend to agree with you that having seen things go this way before in other seasons that just it's not your year, guys, whether it's hiring the wrong offensive coordinator in 2018 or whatever it might be, or Kirk's Achilles pops in the middle of the season. Sometimes this season ain't just for you. and it feels a little more like that than it does a miracle season of Case Keenum or Sam Darnold but I guess at the same time in 2017 they started one and two and we thought are there any other quarterbacks out there that they could go get so you never really do know with this Vikings team last thing for you just we've got two weeks of sample size around the league so

clearly we know every single thing about every team at this point it's all locked in the rest of the season's written we could just simulate to the playoffs what has been the the biggest intrigue on the NFC side of things for you like what's the thing over the first couple of weeks development where you've been like oh okay in all those great summer shows where you did uh all the positive things about the teams or all the different ideas for the you know whatever that you did in the summer that kind of blew up a little bit in these first couple of weeks um i think the NFC has been less sort of surprised than the AFC has been for that.

I guess the Saints have not been as bad as people were expecting them to be. Spencer Rattler could be a quarterback still. I think most people had kind of written off the idea that that was a possibility. I think honestly the Saints had kind of written off the idea that that was a possibility. I think if they, if Tyler Shuck had shown them anything,

they were trying to give him that job in training camp preseason. And they let it drag on, you know, so far. And they were like, okay, look, we just can't. He hasn't. So we have to give the job to Rattler. And he's looked pretty good through the first couple of weeks with, you know, a supporting cast that isn't amazing.

I mean, his receivers are pretty good. Alvin Kamara is still pretty good. The offensive line is not. And he's still looking pretty good. So I guess that would be a, that's as surprised, I think, as I've been by anything in the NFC so far. I guess that means that it's been very chalky then because. Yeah, generally.

I mean, you know, Green Bay and that addition to Micah Parsons, they look pretty spectacular. but, you know, would that have been completely insane to say preseason that actually the Packers are going to take that step this year and they'll be really good? No. You know, like the Washington maybe looks like they're prime for regression. We kind of said that might be a thing. The West is generally a bit chaotic. So I think overall the NFC has been reasonably kind of jockey with a couple of slight outliers. I'll throw it out there that Dallas has been a must watch for just entertainment purposes and that I wasn't sure that I was going to expect

when Brian Schottenheimer took over as their head coach. But now I kind of want to watch a lot of their football games because I think they're going to be every single game is going to be like 38 to 35. They have no real defense and they have weapons on offense and Prescott's going to throw it for 5,000 yards. And that could be kind of fun since we get national TV games with the Cowboys jammed down our throats every single week. So that's probably one of the bigger developments for me. And then I think the answer also is probably the Vikings and where this is gone in the first couple of weeks. Sam, check the mic podcast. I'm always checking in on check the mic, making sure you guys get all your pronunciations of Javon Hargrave, correct? So far,

I will say with Javon Hargrave, I had no idea either. I had called him Javan Hargrave every broadcast had said Javon for his entire career. And then he got introduced to us. And we're like, oh, we didn't know that. Some guys are just quiet about it. They just don't correct anybody and you can go a long time without knowing the pronunciation. Yeah, I feel like they've got to get, you know, there needs to be a time period where it's like if you waited this long, you missed the boat. Like your name is, I'm sorry, the zeitgeist has now decided your name is something different and you didn't correct it.

So that's on you. All right. Well, you know, I think that we should all just try our best to pronounce it the way that his parents pronounce it. But, you know, I agree at some point you got to let everybody know. But the risk with that is you end up with a Bajan Robinson where it's like, apparently his parents want to pronounce a different way. And he's like, you know what?

No, I don't care. I don't like it pronounced that way. So I'm going back to what everybody else called it. It's a complicated league, Sam. It's a complicated league. Anyway, check the link podcast. Great to check in with you as always. And I'm sure none of this is a surprise to you that it is the Vikings.

So we're talking about a quarterback who played for a bunch of other teams who now has a chance to turn around a season why not why not we're all quite comfortable with this thanks for your time sam hey time we go again okay uh thanks everybody for watching and listening and now the uh minnesota links are going to play a playoff game so if you have the links app feel free to listen my wife is calling the game out in san francisco they're playing the golden state velcaries actually they're in san jose for some reason tonight uh but i'm going to go do that. I'm going to go listen to my wife call a playoff game and watch, I'll be watching the TV, listening to her on the app should be a pretty good time. And I think they're probably going to win and move on in the playoffs. And then we will be back with you tomorrow night. It is somehow only Wednesday. So we'll have more for tomorrow. And Justin Jefferson's going to talk. T.J. Hawkinson will talk as well. Make sure if you haven't signed up for the newsletter as well, I had a one- on one conversation with Walter Rouse about his first chance to play in the NFL.

He could be your left tackle this week. And we had a really good conversation about what he's learned so far in the NFL, writing about that, as well as Carson Wentz and what he had to say for tomorrow and answer that fan duel question of the day, which was how many points does Carson Wentz need to score to win the game? The over under is 41 and a half. So we'll have a lot for you. Andrew Kramer and I are recording tomorrow as well.

our hardcore position-by-position breakdown, Joe Goodberry, who covers the Bengals, great guest. He's been on a few times, is going to join the show tomorrow night. So a lot coming your way. Thanks, everybody, for the great conversation again tonight. Hopefully, we will see you tomorrow as well. And as always, football.