Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Sam Monson thinks this is a mulligan season for the Vikings

Episode Date: August 24, 2024

Sam Monson, formerly of PFF and now of the Check the Mic podcast with 33rd Team, joins Matthew Coller from Circa to talk about his idea of the Vikings' 2024 season. He thinks that the Vikings can't grade the head coach and GM based on what we see this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome back inside Circa. Matthew Collar here promoting the Circa Million and Circa Survivor contest because that's what they said they would allow us to come out here for. And look who I found. Sam Monson, formerly now of PFF, and now Check the Mic podcast with you and Steve Palazzolo, which is exactly the same podcast as you had at PFF, but now check the mic podcast with you and Steve Palazzolo, which is exactly the same podcast as you had at PFF, but now is with 33rd Team. Quite a life move for you, my friend. What's up? Great to see you. Yeah, thanks. Thanks for having me. And good to see you out here in Vegas. Not

the place I would have expected us both to be, but here we are. Here we are. Yeah. Have a good time. Absolutely. Yeah. It's been fun. This place is awesome. Like Circa Casino generally, it's an awesome hotel. It's an awesome place. The giant sports book looks insane. Stadium swim looks insane. Like this place is a sports paradise in addition to being a casino. They really didn't have to work hard to get us out there. They said, all right, we're doing these two huge contests.

Why don't you come out and talk about them for a couple days? And I was like, oh, I don't know, man. Coming out to the middle of the desert to watch sports, talk about sports, and hang out with people like yourself is a hard choice. But let's talk about some football. You want to do that? Yep, let's go. Here's the challenge for you.

Uh-oh. All summer long. Because, you know, there's a long time between when things happen in the offseason and when they actually play. I don't know if you guys have noticed this on the Check the Mic podcast. There we go. But it's been a long time, and what everyone has said to me about Sam Darnold, including professionals like Rich Gannon, who was once upon a time that guy

who revamped his career, everywhere down to the Viking fan who just casually watches, everybody's got the same opinion, which is, hey, he had some pretty bad coaches before, and O'Connell's offense should help and Justin Jefferson's pretty good so maybe it could be one of those weird Viking years where they have a random quarterback who takes them to the playoffs that's everybody's opinion it's maybe it's hedged a little maybe he could possibly do something that wasn't that bad give me something new give me something new.

Give me something fresh. I need a fresh. We are only days away from the season starting. You've got a fresh new podcast. I need a fresh new Sam Darnold angle. Give it to me. I don't know that there are fresh new Sam Darnold angles. The show's over.

Well, the one thing I think I would say is that he has never had a consistently strong season, including college, right? Like, even his college career, when he went back and analyzed it, it was like we had a bunch of terrible games in here, and then we had a run of, like, seven that looked great, right? And that propelled him up to the top of the draft with this idea of, well, he's arrived now, right? We've got the bat out of the way. Now he's headed in the right direction. The physical tools are there.

You put it all together. You project forward, and you end up with a great quarterback only when you projected forward you just ended up with the same inconsistencies only at a tougher level and you know with a worse situation arguably around him given the various coaches and you know supporting systems he's had so it's looked worse but this idea that you know even in a good situation good coaching good receivers to throw to that he's just going to iron out all the kinks and be at any kind of level baseline for the entire season I think is crazy there will be a run of games where he looks good there will be a run of games where he looks terrible and there's probably going to be a middle ground somewhere and where exactly that lands is

the question mark so the best thing about having jj mccarthy in the mix was as soon as the run of bad games happen you could say come on down right mr mccarthy and then as kevin o'connell you've got your option to be able to show off your shiny new toy and even if he has his ups and downs and struggles you can always get to the end of the year and say a lot of progress was made but now you don't really have that as an option and you just have to ride whatever out from Sam Darnold ends up happening and I have gone very much back and forth on this because when they signed Darnold I thought well this is a good bridge quarterback I'd rather have this than Jacoby Brissett where there's no upside. I've seen practices where he has looked unbelievable. I mean, throwing the football is magical. I could see why he was

drafted as high as he was. His arm talent is absolutely freakish. I've also seen practices where he just throws interceptions and he just can't seem to make himself stop doing that thing where he doesn't see it and he just throws it anyway and I guess I the one thing I could come around to is the idea of variance that Case Keenum one year threw it up for everybody and they went and caught it and if you have the receivers that they have maybe you can get on the right side of variance and have a much better season than you would typically be known as being capable of having and once again I've arrived at that same Sam Darnold spot yeah I mean I think that's true like there's definitely anytime you have a quarterback that's capable of those good runs those bad runs and everything in the middle there's absolutely the chance that it

all breaks your way for a period long enough that it sort of constructs a full season's worth of that type of play the chances are it doesn't you know and it's going to end up exactly where it normally ends up but I mean this was Steve made this point about Jameis Winston from day one. He's been waiting for a decade for Jameis to have that year, right, to string together the one year where all you get is the upside of Jameis Winston. But it almost never happens. It's definitely – it does show up. You know, we had, like, quarterbacks that do that.

And then the other element is if you can just stay at a good enough baseline right that the rest of the team can function you can actually get somewhere and then time your good run for the important games and that that can make a difference as well okay so then what what am i supposed to do here with sam tarnall if if we're dealing with more bad than good yeah and we're dealing with a jamis winston situation where he is not different and it's still the same interceptions and it's the still the same ups and downs and it's like carolina where he starts out with three amazing games as a panther and then it falls off the face of the earth how do we evaluate this season if sam darnold is who

sam darnold has been because there's so many other good things about the roster so many other good things about their roster build even I would argue and yet here we are going the over under six and a half uh what do we say I mean are we supposed to criticize the head coach if it doesn't go well are we supposed to say that the general manager didn't handle handle the roster well enough or just the mere fact that they got stuck in a spot where they had to play Sam Darnold the entire year? I think that's the reality, right? They feel a bit like the Raiders, where you sort of look at them heading into the season,

and you're like, this year's kind of pointless, right? They don't have the guy that they need at the most important position. They don't know what they're doing at quarterback. So nothing that happens this year can really mean anything for them. It's just treading water until they get that guy and you restart the clock like for Minnesota you had this excitement you had J.J. McCarthy we finally got this new direction from Kirk Cousins you had the extra sort of tantalizing debut of his preseason where he looked great and then immediately Rug just pulled out from under you're like actually we're going to put a pin in that come back next year

you're not going to see him until next season. Unlucky, right? Now, great, it shouldn't be a long-term problem. It's just going to be a one year, but this one year is gone. And unfortunately, that's kind of where you are. Darnold, even in the most optimistic outlook, is unlikely to be a quarterback good enough to take this team in what is now looking like a tough division to postseason success, right? Even get to the postseason to the point where he could then go on a theoretical run of a

couple of games. And he's just probably not that guy. At which point, you're just killing time until next year when you get your real quarterback back. And maybe the only thing he can do is play well enough that you can get a reasonable evaluation of, say, Jordan Addison development this year or you know the team is competitive enough of enough that we can see what the defense is looking like like simply evaluate other parts of the roster without the quarterback situation dragging it all down

remember I mentioned it's hard for me what you just said like I think from a very rational outside perspective to say that they're just waiting around this season for next year is something that is not going to get a lot of disagreement from Vikings fans because that's even the vibe the minute that he had that torn meniscus the vibe I got from Vikings fans from the comments and just interacting was see in 2025 like well I got a whole season to cover I waited a long time for this I can't wait for football what am I supposed to do here and the other thing is that people don't remember that when it comes to, like, the end-of-season fallout and, you know, we're evaluating, like, coaching

and general managers and stuff like that. Like this, if the Vikings end up catching, like, the bad end of variance, right, don't win many games at all, now there's going to be hot seat talk and we're going to be, you know, analyzing Quasey's work. Whereas, realistically, we've determined now, in August, this season is already done. It's written off. Nothing that happens for the next four months, effectively, it counts, right? It's all fake.

And yet, in four months' time, if it went badly, we're going to be like, should they be fired? Should we go in a different direction? Is it time to blow it up? You're like, no, it isn't, because we just said four months ago that this is all make-believe. Okay, I was trying to find. I wrote this yesterday.

Where did I write this? That there were a number of teams that had over-unders of six and a half that ended up either making the playoffs or playing all the way to the final day. So I think that to say, especially you, who has watched the Minnesotanesota vikings for your entire life grew up a vikings fan because you were huge into herschel walker if i remember which uh really tracks uh that uh you never know is kind of the best argument that you have and there have been so many seasons through the years where you never know turned out to be something that was totally unexpected including 2017 and I feel like if I'm making the case here hey why should you pay attention to

this season now we'll get to the other part you mentioned the implications ramifications on the coach and the general manager but I also think part of it has to be there have been so many random quarterbacks who have shown up here so many seasons that we didn't expect and even last year the Houston Texans over under I know it's very different situation yeah they're over under was six and a half when they started the season so is the Colts they had Gardner Minshew coming off the bench playing to the last minute I think that with as much talent as they have on the defensive side and as much talent as they have around the quarterback it's not irrational to say at least strap into the roller coaster and see where it takes you.

Yeah, I mean, look, the NFL is a league where anything can happen in any given season. You can never say, like, this team will be terrible, this team will be great. You know that that's not the way it works, right? Teams come out of nowhere every single year and are way better than you thought they would. Teams completely collapse every single year that we expected to be good. So that's one reason that it's, you know, still an interesting season.

And then the other thing is it's very easy to kind of compartmentalize and still each week, you know, divorce yourself from the bigger picture where none of this really matters and embrace the fact that this week the Vikings are playing the Packers and it's a live game and the line is, you know, five points or whatever, and we're still in this. And, you know, there's reasons to watch each individual game, even if bigger picture we're like, we all know we're just treading water until J.J. McCarthy gets healthy.

It's so – you make it sound so bleak. Like, even that, where you're like, well, there's a game, so you could just watch it. You might win it. You could just – and if it doesn't go well, you could just rake your leaves or shovel your snow uh i can't blame you for having that outlook although i am thinking about the person that's waited so long to see this team after all the training camp they get like oh yeah well that's kind of that is kind of where we're at uh what how how far into

the season what would you have to see early in part of the season that would change your mind? You know how there's that meme with the table that says, change my mind? If it was someone saying, whatever it is, the sign. If the sign said, the Vikings will actually be good, change my mind. What would they have to do early in the season to show you that that might not be the case? They might not be bad. I think it's more, honestly, what the rest of the league looks like like you know Minnesota's ceiling this year is almost determined by whether Chicago takes a huge step forward with Caleb Williams right whether Green

Bay is actually really good with this collection of young players or if that remains like a sort of bit inconsistent and you know hit or miss in a given week and maybe they're not going to be the contenders that's a lot of people are expecting them to be. It's more of that. Like, can they actually stay in this thing because not everybody else is amazing. But if, like, the start of the season, even if they're playing well, you know, if Darnall has that three-game run like the Carolina thing where it's the

first three weeks and the Vikings are 3-0 and everything's looking great, if Chicago looks legit and if Green Bay looks legit and if the Lions still look legit, you're still like, I mean, ultimately they're probably going to fade before the other two teams do, the other three teams. So it's, you know, it ultimately is going to shake out to where we think it will, even if the start is great. So I do want to get into that with you about the NFC North, but just staying with the idea of what this season is going to be, if you think that they're going to be around where their win total is, how should we evaluate the head coach and general manager?

How should we evaluate the roster build, the week-to-week coaching, what it projects about how Kevin O'Connell is going to coach and try to succeed with J.J. McCarthy? What can we do to learn from this season about them going forward? I honestly don't know that there's much we can take from this. I genuinely think the second McCarthy goes down, Sam Darnall is your guy. He will make the best of a bad situation, but it is effectively meaningless for projecting them forward, right?

It really is. If we are analyzing this season and evaluating should that determine whether Kwasi or Kevin O'Connell get fired, get extensions, it shouldn't affect their future prospects within this team because it's not their team. It's not what should be there. They effectively played that game. I had this tweet pinned for years, the Peyton Manning quote. If 18 goes down, it's done, right? We don't practice that.

That's what happened. That's the game they played effectively. They got the rookie, first-round draft pick. He's the future. When you take him out, it's not to say – it's like you go from exciting new team with a rookie enticing prospect, you know, 21-year-old talent. Like, everything's good to now you just have your equivalent of Gardner Minshew, Aiden O'Connell, a quarterback, and it's just not the same dynamic, right?

I think the thing to be interested in for Minnesota this year, now that that is the situation, is the defense. Like, that, I think, is we can take some information, we can take some learnings from that because last year, Flores, I think, did amazing things with that defense. Given the talent level that was there, the defense dramatically outperformed. And then it felt like a run out of gas towards late in the year, right? It was sort of found out to a degree.

I think ultimately when you're making a defense work through smoke and mirrors, eventually you run out of smoke and mirrors, and the personnel is what's going to have to carry that at that point and they they didn't have enough personnel now we've got tons more people added to that defense a lot of upgrades across the board um and we get to see if flores has got you know a next step a version 2.0 of the defense with theoretically a better equipped personnel group to pick up that slack late in the year if it gets found out again and a lot of the players save for stefan gilmore who they just signed but a lot of the players are guys going forward that they are going to have over multiple seasons jonathan

grenard is a good example dallas turner ivan pace these are centerpieces of the defense josh metellus who are the next five years type of players that you're projecting out so they can build on what they have now from this defense but i i think going back to your original point it's really important for the ownership and i think even for fans to have the attitude that you were talking about which is that we can't really learn so much new about this except for maybe if they make the playoffs then we will be able to say all right that's a hell of a coaching job and now the confidence will be very high if they go 10 and 7 and they are able to make the postseason then you're going to believe a lot more in the idea

that McCarthy and O'Connell are going to go forward if you can make that out of Sam Darnold then you should be able to do that with McCarthy but if it is an average outcome for what people expect for the season then you should keep that in mind that with McCarthy. But if it is an average outcome for what people expect for the season, then you should keep that in mind that there wasn't much you could really learn from this without J.J. McCarthy being their quarterback. And it is a little frustrating that that's something you're asking people to do because how can you do that? It's football.

Overreact to stuff? Of course. You have to basically give them a free pass and say, yeah, I think you're right that the only thing we can take from this is a potential positive, right? The baseline expectation should be that this season is effectively a write-off. They fall somewhere in that uninspiring, below 500 but not terrible ballpark, and we move on to next year, right?

If, however, Kevin O'Connell successfully rewires Sam Darnall's brain, ballpark and we move on to next year right if however uh kevin o'connell successfully like rewires sam darnold's brain gets the inconsistency out of him darnold looks like a high-end quarterback you know starts looking like the guy that was the high draft pick or the projected vision of the guy that was the high draft pick and they are challenging and they are maybe a playoff team and if guys like stefan gilmore you know are great in this flores defense and suddenly that defense is amazing all the way through the year in part because of you know late additions of personnel like stefan gilmore then that only stands in their in their credit right like the expectation was low you've exceeded the expectation therefore you come out with credit

but if the expectation is low and the results are low you have to just say we knew this was going to happen yeah what i feel like the way you're doing it here is in a rational world that that is what you're doing this is not a rational world and if they do come well short of the postseason i don't think that the owners or the fans will be in the same seat as you is saying hey your rookie quarterback got hurt what were you supposed to do this season i think it will be much more three more years without a playoff win will be the thing and when you think about even in purple insider history even in the history of me just covering this team how many seasons have been seven eight nine wins i think it's been more of those seven eight nine win seasons than anything else for me covering the team and i think if you're on the fan base side or the Wilf ownership side you've gotten a little bit tired of that hey maybe

we'll kind of be in the middle type of thing even if what's around the bend we can all see could be much better than that and that's why I think it's so it's so sort of sad that you know we're in this situation where McCarthy goes down because obviously you've got you you know, it's unfortunate for him, right? He misses his rookie year. It's unfortunate for all of us that don't get to watch him play his rookie year. But it's also unfortunate because you know that's exactly how things are going to be interpreted. Like it's not going to be taken rationally. We're not going to be able to just run a circle around it and cross it out

and say we knew this one doesn't count. There's an asterisk next to it because people like to pattern match and like to create those sort of threads and those themes and say well look it's it's now a third year yeah but this one doesn't count right the other two fine but you can't add another year because the the situation changed they had no shot okay so i have two things for you two more questions one i have four matchups of teams with their odds to win the super bowl and i want you to tell me which one you would pick that's in a second but first if things go wrong for the lions or packers what happened uh that's not the quarterback getting hurt that's obvious but but if they're not as good as we think what what would

have happened to both teams? For the Panthers, it's simply that the youngest roster in the NFL probably shouldn't be one of the best rosters in the NFL. That's the way the world works generally with young players. Most of the best teams in any sport are not comprised of the youth star team. You know what I mean? The next generation prodigy team is not the best in the world um and we tend to sort of look at it like youth equals um like projection and ceiling and potential right so the youngest roster in the nfl is the roster with the most potential in the nfl

but it's also the roster that's probably furthest away from being elite um relative to you know guys that have established veterans and, you know, older players and stuff. And because Green Bay finished so well, we're just sort of projecting, well, they just pick up where they left off. It's still young. Those guys are going to take a step forward together in the offseason. But the reality is some of them will.

Some of them will probably go backwards. Some of them will just stay the same. And it could end up anywhere. I think they have one of the widest ranges of outcomes in the nfl um and again the pattern match thing right you like to see trends as a human being it's what the humans do so we go well they started the season pretty badly they finished it really strongly they're they're going up right but variance that might just be the way it like a random distribution of variance happened that season it could easily go two games good two games bad and end up in the same area just in a different pattern right so green bays

i think it's pretty simple detroit's is harder um because that's that's a really good team that got better right and so many of those players are so proven i mean the penne sewells and already aiden hutchinson and jared Goff is such a proven commodity. He's been very healthy throughout his career. With Jordan Love, we still don't know about the distribution of good and bad games. If it will be similar where there will be good and bad with him, because, of course, Packers fans think he's just going to clear out all the bad. That's all gone. That's all behind him.

Well, that's not like you're saying that's not how anything works if every player who is young just got 10 better each year yeah i mean it wouldn't be the nfl that's not what happens it's not the old madden games where you used to develop the guy in the training camp and he would get five points or whatever that's not how it works out i'm'm curious about their defense, and I'm just curious about if Jordan Love has the pressure of everybody talking about him being this new elite quarterback in the league, and if that causes him to try to do Mahomes-ian things more often than he should. I thought in the second half of the season he was brilliant at doing it only when he had to, but if you press on that, and we even have seen this occasionally from josh allen

occasionally from holmes if you press that pedal down a little too much you can have more turnover worthy plays you can have more interceptions more fumbles and it's a league where every game is separated by a couple points right that's the kind of the best i could do i think they'll be pretty good um for the packers but let me give you fourups, and I want you to tell me which one you would rather bet on. Since we're here at Circa, we might as well, right? All right. So would you rather bet the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl at plus 1600 or the Miami Dolphins at plus 2500? Even with the lower odds, the shorter odds, I would take Buffalo there because I just don't really buy into the idea that Miami can win, particularly not in January. We have no evidence yet that they're able to keep that going in January. Buffalo, we at least know. Josh Allen, what

they have there, it plays in January. It's still hard to get past the Chiefs and whatever else, and they haven't done it yet. Josh Allen scored with the 13-second left game. He did his job. He effectively out-dueled Mahomes up until that point, and then the defense decided, no, 13 seconds is enough time for us to blow it, and Mahomes made his plays. But he did his job, and that I think is pretty important. Josh Allen has shown that he's capable of taking that team there.

He also didn't kick the ball wide to the right. That would be the kicker who did that. Okay, how about this then? And I don't know if, when you talk about those two teams, I don't know that Tua can play better than he did last year. He's really pimping that from last year, talking his trash about Brian Flores and all that. That's fine, but can he be better?

Can he improve on that? A lot of times when offenses get a step ahead on defenses defenses start to figure it out and i wonder if mike mcdaniel will have that happen to him cowboys at plus 1750 or jaguars at plus 5800 uh i would take the jags on that really you are not buying the cowboys at all. That's my Super Bowl pick. Really? Yes. The reason is because I think that a lot of times, you're talking about Buffalo, teams that are good enough offensively year after year, sometime they'll break through. Yeah. That's really all it has to do with. It's not necessarily like a Dak clutch type of thing. Yeah. The Cowboys are fascinating because I kind of agree that they will be back knocking on the

door again. I actually think that they've backed themselves into a corner from a personnel standpoint. I have this feeling that they're going to nail two or maybe three of their first three draft picks and actually end up fine, basically win 12 games again, be back exactly where they were. But last year in the postseason was really concerning in terms of they are not just playing whoever the opposition is in a given playoff game they feel 20 years of history weighing down on their shoulders when they get into that game and that's not going to get easier like every year is another year stacked on top of that weight that they're battling against and last year that turned arguably the most potent quarterback wide receiver combination in football into a pair that looked like they'd never met. Like they couldn't play in that game.

They weren't on the same page. They weren't able to communicate at all. And that team did not look like the Dallas Cowboys at all. So I think I have a real problem seeing Dallas getting over that hump anytime soon. Jacksonville, okay, I can't really see them doing it either. But at that odds, like the odds reflect that, so I'll take the longer shot. There's one other element of Dak and the DGAF season. Like maybe he doesn't feel the pressure anymore because he knows that he could

just go sign for another team and he's just going to go for it. Right. We saw this from Alex Smith after they drafted Patrick Mahomes, where he just started airing it out. Yeah, cut loose. Right, exactly. Yeah, cut loose. Right, exactly. Okay, two more. Falcons at plus 3,500 or Rams at plus 2,900?

I would take the Falcons. I buy into this idea that you put Kirk Cousins on that team. They're immediately the best team in the division. It's an easier division. They should be in the playoffs. And then it's kind of the same gamble the Vikings took for years right Cousins is capable of that run that'll win a few games and get you to the Super Bowl right will it happen don't know but he's at least capable of it and the personnel around him is great the offense

is the one effectively he's been playing in already for the last few years you know Zach Robinson we're contractually obliged to say former, is going to do an awesome job there with the Rams. So the Falcons coming over from the Rams. So I buy the Falcons. And also featured in my book, Football is a Numbers Game, as you are as well. I would go Rams on this. I think that their defense is going to be very good this year. Maybe kind of not the same ballpark when they were at the very top

with Brandon Staley a few years ago but I think that they've built that up pretty well even without Aaron Donald anymore and I just think Matthew Stafford is a higher ceiling in a playoff well he's already shown that run we're talking about that's what I'm talking about he did it so I would just go with that because I've seen this Falcons thing right in front of me for six years and it usually gets you you know where okay last one Chargers at plus 4,900 Jim Harbaugh in the Super Bowl or Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl plus 2,200 Jets definitely um I I think people have soured on the Jets Rodgers thing just as a concept because of what happened last year and I sort of feel a little bit like that's their version of the McCarthy thing.

We put it back a year. We were expecting it to be last season. Four snaps later, Rodgers, Achilles, and Tatters. It's like, well, that's that gone. But not necessarily just for last year. It might happen now. He's still Aaron Rodgers. He's not showing physical signs of decline other than the fact that his Achilles snapped.

And if he is able to play all season long long I don't even need him to be 100% if he's able to be 75% of Aaron Rodgers with that roster that's a contending team so I absolutely buy them as a legitimate contender so I don't buy them as a legitimate contender as in I think it's going to be likely that they are but there Is a scenario where they could Be unbelievably good which is Rogers Bounces back he's any Semblance of what he was when he won MVP And then they are terrifying as a team And they're the best team in the AFC like that

That exists for them that Does not exist for the Chargers they don't have a Great roster Justin Herbert is already banged up and hasn't Played a ton in training camp and we know that justin herbert well very good is not going to automatically like josh allen or patrick beholmes put you on the doorstep he's going to need a lot around him so i agree i just think with the rogers thing it screams to me that he plays like three games and gets hurt again

that's how it feels but there is that world where he's just absolutely fantastic. And it's a problem for everybody. That's the worry, I think. So at 40 years old, like he's now in this territory of it's only been recent, right, where quarterbacks play to this ridiculous age. And they all eventually decline in some way, shape, or form. But it's not always the same, right? Like Brett Favre still probably has a top-half NFL arm, right?

His decline never hit him that way. Decline hit him where he would take hits that he used to be able to just strap it up and play on when he was 25. That started to break things, right? And now he's out, and now he's done, and now you can't play him. That's how I expect Rodgers to start physically declining if it happens, right? He's still going to be able to flick a ball 55 yards off platform, make an incredible play. But now that he's had an Achilles go, maybe now we're going to get a quad injury or an ankle injury compensating for that.

And like now Rogers starts to be a little bit more brittle than he used to be. But he's a guy at 40. We have seen no signs that like his arm is any less than it used to be. Even his mobility is any worse than it used to be even his mobility is any worse than it used to be again other than an achilles just snapping on him which is a big factor um but if he bounces back and he plays even like he did when they went nine and eight with that defense with garrett wilson it's a pretty good team sam monson now check the mic with 33rd team so if you did listen to pff n forecast, or, oh, wow, PFF NFL podcast, not our old friend Eric Eager with the forecast. Good doctor.

Now with the Carolina Panthers. But great to see you again. Look, a fan. Oh, look, Steve Palazzolo, the co-host of the, co-host of Check the Mic. So, I mean, I've a long time listened to you guys recap every week it's my favorite show on monday tuesday to listen to because it's four hours long and takes a couple days to get through uh but i'm really excited for the new venture go download that and uh you guys are going for it i'm very excited for you thank you and that part is continuing that's one of the

single largest pieces of feedback we've had from people since we announced this. Since we started it. It's like, don't let them cut down the preview and the review show. We need the two-plus hours of every single game. So that's absolutely going to continue. Perfect. Sam Monson, really appreciate you, man.

Thanks for stopping by. And we'll talk again very soon. Thank you, sir. All right, welcome back inside Circa, Matthew Collar, along with Brian Murphy, and joining us, the man who built this place, Derek Stephens, the second time you've been on our show, Derek. Great to have you here.

Great for us to be here. As always, we had steaks last night downstairs. Berries. We had deli sandwiches. We've been broadcasting here, hanging out. I mean, the sports palace that you built here is just incredible. So we thank you again for having us out again to Circa. Really appreciate it, man.

Well, I appreciate you having me on the show. And, again, welcome back to Las Vegas. We love our Midwestern fans coming out to Circa Las Vegas, and obviously sports fans. That's kind of what we built about. The excitement this weekend is unbelievable. Football contest sign-up weekend has now turned into a thing. I mean, hotels sold out.

Everybody's all fired up about getting these contests. It's pretty cool. It really is, and this Radio rose situation you got set up here has been packed uh the show next to us had a huge crowd this morning so people are really getting excited about this uh i've probably asked you this before on the show but i'd love you to take me through the uh the background here and last night we were hanging out we see the guys in the blue jackets that won millions in the survivor god i want one of those jackets it's just it's it's become such a big thing i'd love you to give me the background on it well you know i came out

here uh 2006 bought a little casino across the street called the golden gate uh bought a place called fitzgerald's in 2011 that's what we renovated into the d in 2012 and then had an opportunity to start uh buying some real estate on this on this city block that Circa's sitting on and we were able to jump in and demolish and then design and concept something. I'm such a sports fan that I always thought that there was more demand for a great sports venue than what had been out there in the last 30 years, I would say, of hotel casino design in Vegas. It seemed like sports books and sports was always kind of like a second. Afterthought?

Yeah, an afterthought, kind of like a necessary amenity. And I just thought, wait a second, there's got to be more people like me that just love sports and want to put it right in the forefront. So we built the world's largest sports book here at Circa and then did something with Stadium Swim with the big, massive 143-foot screen and these outdoor pools that are open 365 days a year. I just thought, you know, it doesn't matter where you stay. If you're a big sports fan, you're going to want to come down and check out Circa.

I totally agree and uh our both of our hotel rooms are also looking down at the uh the stadium swing which is not bad you know i've had there's nothing like waking up at six in the morning to uh formula one racing on the big screen and actually seeing engaged bettors and followers down there yeah it's probably the coolest part of the day so So we love coming out. And with the contest specifically, how long has this been going on? When was the first year of the contest? First year of our first contest, which is called Circa Millions. So that's the contest where you pick five games against a spread each week. This is the sixth year of the Circa Millions.

This year we're guaranteeing $6 million. And if we don't hit 6 million entries, we're still guaranteeing the $6 million. This is the contest I recommend everybody get into. Because? Because there may be an overlay. But even if there's not, there's 126 ways to win. So there's going to be a lot of caches in this contest. You got the top 100 get paid on the overall. 126 ways to win. So there's going to be a lot of caches in this contest.

You got the top 100 get paid on the overall. But also there's a million two guaranteed in the quarters. We do these quarterly prizes. So if you get hot for a short period, you might be able to get a good cache. So that's the first contest. And this is year six. And then Circa Survivor, this is the fifth year of Circa Survivor, and we didn't realize when we first started this that Circa Survivor was going to explode the way it has, but it sure has.

I mean, a few years ago it was $3 million, then $6 million, and then last year $8 million we guaranteed, and this year, because of the growth growth we're guaranteeing 10 million. We're on pace to blow right through it. So at the cocktail party last night we saw all the past winners. There must have been at least a dozen of them. They're all wearing their blue blazers, kind of like Hall of Famers going into Canton in their gold jackets, right? But tell me, what's the point of celebrating past champions,

and what do you hope to do when they're here? You're almost celebrating them as part of the team. We are definitely celebrating them. We actually had a total of 20 people at the champions' dinner last night. That's where the champions all get to bring a plus one, bring their wife, whoever. For somebody to win a contest like this, it's life-changing. It's life-changing, one. Number two, it's a lot more than an individual or a small group.

I mean, you've got a big impact on a spouse. You've got a big impact on kids, parents, your boss, things like that. And we just want to continue to celebrate them. So, yeah, I told them, you know, you guys are all going to be part of our family forever. I mean, they get to wear that blue jacket and feel proud about what they won. It was awesome to see 2019 champion, 2021 champion, all that. Every one of them was smiling. Yeah.

And I know why, but I just wanted to be them. Yeah, it was very cool. I mean, we want to celebrate them. And they're effectively, you know, once you win it, everybody want to keep, everybody wants to be a two-time winner. So, of course, they're all signing up. But they really want to celebrate, and it's really created this community, kind of like, you know, somebody who won the Masters, you know, in 1980. You go back to Augusta every year.

They always talk about that Tuesday night dinner is the best part of the week. Exactly. So it becomes its own community. And that's kind of what we've done here. And it kind of blends in here with Radio Row here. When you see somebody walking around the circuit with a blue jacket, it's probably a good guy to want to ask, hey, can I meet up with you? These guys are all great with media.

And everybody likes to relive that story. How'd you win in 2019? How'd you win in 2021 and uh and it's pretty good pretty good to see them all so that's what i was going to ask is uh i don't know if you can give out some free advice to us here when it comes to survivors specifically i i think is so difficult right because we were just i was just having brian pick the schedule the viking schedule trying to figure out if they're going to hit the over here that we're going to discuss in a second. But we were talking about Vikings Jaguars. Would that be a game someone would want to pick one way or the other on that? Is there a

strategy that you have found that has worked for people with the Survivors specifically? Because I think that is so much fun, but also so difficult because any team can win any week in the NFL. It is so much fun. It is also very easy from the outside. But as you dig into the layers, it is exceptionally complex. You know, you've got to be good. You have to have a strategy, plus you also have to get lucky. Yeah, of course.

If you are saving a team for one reason or another, whether it's to play it on Thanksgiving or Christmas, and that particular team. Someone gets injured. Yeah, I mean, let's just say for Thanksgiving, you're saving. You decide, okay, I'm going to shoot Dallas early. I'm going to save the Lions for Thanksgiving. And then a week before, Jared Goff goes out.

Right. It's a whole different ballgame. You've got a big drop-off in quarterback in Detroit. So you have to avoid some of the pitfalls. But like anything, like in the real season, you've got to avoid injuries. So there's a little bit of a luck component to it. My recommendation would be really think through things in a manner where to win circuit survivor, you've got to go 20-0. So think about this inversely.

There are only 12 teams that you can't take. So think through the 12 teams. You might say, okay, I am not taking Carolina. Ever. Yeah. But I'll tell you, to get up to that 12, it becomes real easy. It becomes real, real easy. But you have to pick 20 different teams.

So make sure you try to think through which 12 you don't want to take. I would also say I recommend a strategy called the option or double option. An option strategy, it's a little more expensive because it's two entries. So, for example, you buy two entries into Circus Survivor, and you look through the schedule, and then you take a week where there are two teams that you think you will never take. So there's a week, I think it's week seven, Carolina is playing Washington. You may say, I don't plan on taking Washington, nor do I plan on taking Carolina.

But under an option strategy, you put one on either. You sacrifice one entry. But your other entry now is a little bit stronger because let's say Carolina wins that game. You're going to be one of the few entrants that has already used Carolina, which means you didn't use Kansas City that week, or you didn't use the Lions, or you didn't use the 49ers. So the remaining cards in your hand are a little stronger. So I do recommend utilizing the option strategy in that sense. I love that.

Leveraging your options. Trying to figure out when to use a team like kansas city because they're still you know they're the best quarterback in the league they're still the super bowl champs but do you use them right away out of the gate do you try to save them trying to figure out when to save a team for i think is one of the hardest things of this because we all have a good sense early on but if you try to save a team and then their quarterback gets hurt later on then like what are you what are you going to do you have to scramble right i think i think this year is kind of unique with kansas city um i think

pretty clearly in the 2024 circus survivor you do not want to take kansas city early and the reason is Kansas City has more value than they've had in a long time because they are options for both holidays, for both Thanksgiving and Christmas week. So I would hate to give up a solid entry early and all of a sudden you really weaken yourself on the two holidays because because you never know you never know who you're going to want to take at thanksgiving but or christmas but but having a team that's in both of those holiday sections adds more value to saving that team i i love i love the strategy of the entire thing uh brian uh is a lions fan growing up yeah and i'm suffering long suffering long suffering i mean but not in the last couple of years i think the last time that we talked with you i know you do hundreds of interviews so maybe you don't remember it but we determined that you and brian were at the same football game

i believe that was it the last time the lions had won the division? Yeah, they played Dallas. One playoff game, they played Dallas, Pontiac, Silverdome. Yeah, they beat Dallas. I mean, it's the one playoff game in my lifetime. You know, it's easy to talk about a playoff game from 30 years ago when it's the only one in your life that they've ever won. And it was the last playoff game Dallas lost for about five years. Yeah, yep. And if I didn't mention to the audience you're from michigan

and so lifelong lions fan if they didn't pick up on that and i'm looking at this the win loss totals ten and a half for the lions that's terrifying to this man to to have real expectations on the detroit lions how does that feel to you well i i'd rather have them i'd rather i'd rather be here at the end of august with uh with uh of 10.5 than the general 7 that we've seen over the last three decades. So I'd rather have that than have an expectation to be a couple games under.500. Yeah, that's for sure. Does it feel like, though, that there's a national confidence in this team and certainly a betting confidence in this team? Yeah, for sure um the lions are actually a team

from a circus sports perspective that we have uh some of the biggest liability on um i think you know a couple years ago let's go back to 2022 um uh two years ago right now they were on hard knocks and they got a little bit of this hard knocks bump and then when they went one in six because they were so bad people kind of gravitated to this little underdog team that never could win and they were nice and they were fun and enjoyable and thought people thought they're going to come out of the shoot and like you said boom one in six but what happened was interesting the back end of the season was terrific sure so then going into going into 2023 you know what a perfect stage.

Open up on the road at Kansas City, national TV, and beat the Chiefs. And then have this kind of storybook season, getting all the way to the NFC Championship game. Obviously, as you know, up 17 at halftime. And then the most devastating half of football I've seen in my life occurred. But you need the battle scars. You need the battle scars. I mean, that's the way. You're not going to have a team in the NFL that hasn't made the playoffs in six years win a Super Bowl.

Right. You've got to step up, you know, season after season. I mean, it's just the way it is. So they made a big step. So now you've got to follow up with it. Okay, one more thing for you, Derek. I appreciate all your time. Wait until the end for this.

Uh-oh. What's it say under the Vikings? What's it say? Hang on a second. I've got to get my glasses on. Just look at the very bottom. Read it to me. Very bottom.

Last one. What's it say? Right over here. Right over here. What's that number? Oh, six and a half. It's pretty tough. It's pretty tough, Derek. Well, wait a second. Wait a here. What's that number? Oh, six and a half. It's pretty tough. It's pretty tough, Derek.

Well, wait a second. Wait a second. No, that's, yeah, six and a half. You're right. Yeah, you got an alternate line of seven and a half and five and a half. But six and a half is shaded to the over slightly. Explain yourself. Well, I mean, I realize I'm on a purple show right now, so I'm trying to be fair.

But, you know, as a Lions fan, I've taken it over the years. Over the decades. Yeah, I mean, NFC North, let's be realistic here. It's not your fault. No, I know. But the Vikings are a clear-cut favorite for last place in the NFC North. I don't think it's unfair, really. I'm giving you a hard time because you're a Lions fan on the show, but

I think that from their actual roster perspective they should be better, but with the quarterback as Sam Darnold, you just have no idea what that's going to be. Yeah, I mean, that's the whole thing. I mean, under either scenario, whether it was J.J. McCarthy coming out, I mean, it's pretty tough to have

a rookie quarterback come out. I mean, there's only so many Dan Marinos, you know, in our football lifetimes. But then with J.J. getting hurt, which was terrible, now you're kind of stuck into the Sam Darnold situation where Sam Darnold's not just there for a little bit of time, like as a mentor, but now he's the man, which is man. Right. Which is a real problem. Which is a real problem. It could be.

Actually, I've got to do a – who's the backup to Darnold? Well, that's a great question at this point. Nick Mullins. Maybe Jaron Hall. Okay. Yeah, Nick's actually a friend of Circa. I didn't know he was on the team. He hangs around here.

Remember he was a quarterback for the Raiders here for a year, he hung around yeah great guy he really is great guy um he can uh he could pull off a couple victories for for a team but yeah donald the mullins i don't know i mean it's not a playoff team right and we were just trying to figure out how they could get to eight or nine because their schedule is also really hard too, which I think is baked into this as well. This could be a tough year for the Minnesota Vikings. We understand Derek. It's okay.

And I figured that you brought us out here. We should give you a really hard time on the show. Why not? That makes a lot of sense, right? But no, an honor to have you on the show. As always,

what you have here is a sports palace that we love coming to. I don't know how many i've been out here now so this is my second this is great that's my go-to place so thank you so much for your time this is really fun to get together with you i appreciate i appreciate uh you having me on the show and uh boy i'll tell you what we love uh we love big 10 fans we love uh nfc afc north fans we're kind of like the midwest casino and it's a destination from the midwest and you love sports come come on and visit Circa. You'll have a very tough time out at Stadium Swim if you're from the Midwest, especially when the weather gets colder. Circa Million and Survivor Contest, we've been talking about them all week.

So you have to make sure you check it out, circalasvegas.com, a great place to get all the details. Thanks again, Derek, really appreciate it. Thank you.