Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Should you draft Dalvin Cook for your fantasy team?

Episode Date: July 15, 2020

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Golden Goal. Soccer stars and the moments that made them. Premiering this summer on Blue Wire. We'll be right back. Hello, welcome into another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collin here, as always, and joining me at the new Purple Football Focus fantasy. What do you like? Maven, guru, whatever you want to call it. Ian Harditz, who is a great follow on Twitter at iHarditz. Ian, which would you prefer? What do you like to call yourself?

Let's go like Fantasy Dude. I think we can keep things light here. I mean, I already got a weird enough last name to pronounce, so let's just keep things as simple as possible. I did nail it, though, right? Harditz? You got it, man. It's like Cheez-Its but Harditz.

So you were one of the few to get it. I appreciate that. Okay, well, I looked up a couple of YouTube videos to make sure I would get it right. That's professionalism is what they call that. So Fantasy Football Analyst Professional is what we're going to go with for you, Ian. And I'm glad that you're working with Pro Football Focus now. This is the first time we're getting together. And one of the things that I noticed right away in following you on Twitter is in your bio,

you say president of the Cordero Patterson fan club now anybody who's listened to my work whether it was sports talk radio or even a little bit on this show has probably heard the Cordero Patterson rant where I go off about the Vikings not using the guy correctly he could have been a much more I don't know robust part of their offense while he was here in Minnesota. And then when he goes to the Patriots and they use him in a bunch of different ways, Mike Zimmer says, oh, yeah, I guess we should have used him in those different ways. You think every time the guy gets the ball in his hands, he goes for a touchdown, and you thought, no, no, no, let's have Charles Johnson be our receiver in 2015 and 2016.

So there it is. Is that why that he's actually super fun to watch and really good with the football in his hands and should have been used more? Look, he's one of these guys that people are just kind of ignorantly calling a bust. And, like, just be careful about throwing that label around. Because if arguably the best kick returner of all time, if arguably, you know, the single – not arguably, the single most efficient rusher in NFL history with at least a hundred rush attempts and a guy that was good enough to get,

you know, Superbowl and AFC championship snaps as a true wide receiver from Tom Brady, you want to label that guy a bust, be careful. You know, even the things that aren't on the stat sheets, I think he's underrated in the box store. I mean, look at the things he did for the bears last year. I mean, he had, he was legit special teams, all pro. I mean, he was legit. Special teams, all pro. The things he did as a punt gunner were just amazing. Laying out dudes, getting stops at the one-yard line.

But you said it, man. It's just that freaking inconsistency with the usage. I mean, you go back to his days in Minnesota. He had that absolutely bonkers, like, 70-yard touchdown run against the Rams, week one of 2014. He did not get more than one carry in a game the rest of his Vikings career. Like, how does that even happen? Just give the guy – give your great players the ball.

Good things happen. It really shouldn't be this hard to just put the guy in the backfield and hand it off to him. I know Cordero probably shouldn't be getting, you know, 10 carries a game straight up the middle. But, come on, you know, when Bill Belichick is taking the guy and making sure he gets them five touches one way or another, I think a lot of the other coaches should know.

Not be afraid to give him the wide receivers the ball. Right, right. And just don't even call him a wide receiver. Just call him a football player. A weapon, exactly. I wrote a piece in 2016 about how I had heard from someone close with Cordero that he wanted to play running back. Like he was always interested in it.

And then I get a bunch of tweets, he runs with his shoulder pads too high. So I'm like, no one can tackle the guy. Is that not the really should be our standard here? He volunteered to play tight end last year when the Bears situation was bad. Like we got him being, you know, again, incorrectly labeled as a bust. Meanwhile, Tim Tebow refused to play a different position other than quarterback for a half decade. So, very selfless and just an overall great player.

I love me some CP. And great point on his punt gunning. 2016, he was the Vikings punt gunner, and he was unreal at it. He was always the first man down making the tackle. The Giants punt returner fumbled. It was a big fumble in that game because Cordero was plowing down on him. So, hey, yeah, I'm with you in your Cordero Patterson appreciation. Now, I want to talk to you, Ian, about Delvin Cook and his situation because we're only a couple

weeks away from training camp. People are starting to get together virtually, hopefully, on Zoom calls and doing their fantasy drafts and so forth. If it's a normal year and Delvin Cook is under contract and he's feeling great about going into the season, he's a guy that you want to draft, I would imagine, way up at the top because he's going to catch a lot of passes. He's going to get a ton of carries. They're going to use him at the goal line. He's going to score a lot of touchdowns. But how do you deal with it from a fantasy perspective when you don't know if the guy has a contract yet? Yeah, so there's a pretty clear top five RBs in this first tier of backs this year,

and that's Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Zico Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook. I mean, just after what we saw last year, you pretty much hit the nail on the head, man. Just a true three-down back. He's out there, you know, if he's healthy, 70% plus snaps. I mean, he's not exactly, you know, lining up out wide like, you pretty much hit the nail on the head, man. Just a true three-down back. He's out there. You know, if he's healthy, 70% plus snaps. I mean, he's not exactly, you know, lining up out wide like, you know, we see Kamara McCaffrey do. I mean, I believe his actual, like, average target depth was in the negatives

because he's mostly just getting those screens. But who cares? Get the guy the ball in the open field and we all see what happens. I mean, I think Saquon, in my opinion, is like the league's best player with the ball in their hands. But Dalvin should be in any of those conversations, just the things he can do when he's healthy. We all know that Gary Kubiak, you know, lead RB has just been a fancy cheat code over these years. You know, I think we're going to even see his influence even more so in this offense this year.

Honestly, man, and maybe I'm wrong with this, but I'm not even changing my projection with Cook hardly at all you know with this news this it's one of these situations where he's been in the offense you know specifically this offense all of last season you know three years uh total and just with the new things they did with the CBA they're made holdouts much less likely I've heard some Vikings beat writers point out that in the past some of their top players that have had these contract concerns do get signed before the season even if things didn't look too hot in July. So, you know what? There's more risk. I have him fifth in that Tier 1 of RBs.

But, I mean, look, there's so few running backs in the league these days that are going to get you over 300 touches and are going to do it at a high level. Dalvin Cook is one of those guys. I'm not backing off him as a top five PPR back entering 2020. And I think that's the right approach because you mentioned the past players who have had some contract beefs and it always gets worked out. I mean, Anthony Barr literally agreed to go to the Jets, and then the Vikings were like, why don't you just –

no, don't go to the Jets. Come on. We'll pay you your money. And now he's one of the higher-paid linebackers in the NFL. Kyle Rudolph last year. Rudolph said, hey, there are other teams that would trade for Kyle Rudolph. And the Vikings were like, okay, we'll work it out with you. These always seem to get worked out.

But this one is particularly odd because we have a pandemic. We're only going to see, at best, the most hopeful we can be is there will be 25% of the stands filled in stadiums this year. Who knows what's going to happen with the salary cap. And I already see from an Adam Schefter tweet that teams are starting to use this as an excuse for not signing franchise tagged players to long-term contracts. I wonder how that plays into it for you. Yeah. I mean, look, this whole world we're living in right now is crazy. I just kind of kept my sights focused on the season because you know the set honestly like in terms of fantasy football

especially this hasn't been all that different for us I mean we'd normally still be just breaking down the season in July like we are this year like we have in years past so it's one of those things where yeah I've you know I've notched down the kind of projections for like rookies in general because I think it's really going to be tougher than usual for those types of players, you know, get these larger year one roles. So it impacts it, but it impacts everyone and maybe Dalvin a little bit more with these concerns. But again, I just think his role and ceiling is still high enough that I'm not moving this dude out of my top five. Well, you pointed me right in the direction that I wanted to go, which was Justin Jefferson. And I asked Austin Gale, PFF's, one of their draft gurus, about what would you project him with? And he said somewhere around 50 catches, but that was before things looked as dire as they do now. And before I think we had skipped the entire offseason and all those things. Is it overrated a little to talk about missing OTAs and rookie minicamps

if they have a regular training camp all the way through for someone like Justin Jefferson? And when you look at what his role could be, that the door is open for him to be their number two wide receiver and to be a playmaker, to get short passes, to go out of the slot and get a lot of receptions, I mean, the potential is there if he can catch up quickly. Seems like that would be a guy from a fantasy perspective. And keep in mind, I am not a good fantasy player or nowhere close to it, which is why you're here. But it would seem to me that that's a guy that, of course, you're not drafting as one of your top wide receivers,

but you would consider higher than some other rookies because of his potential role. Yeah, you're right. I mean, I think we overrate the difference between fantasy analysts and real-life analysts. We're all trying to figure out who's good at the game and who's not at the end of the day. So I do think Justin Jefferson, as well as the Colts' second-round rookie, Michael Pittman, I mean, those are the two guys right off the draft where I was like, I'm not sure if they're going to get the overall targets to like really make a bunch of noise, but good enough and barren enough offenses to potentially lead their teams in receiving scores. So I do wonder, like, I'm with you. I

think Jefferson, he's going to be out there in two wide receiver sets to start the season. I mean, I know they brought in Tajay Sharp. We have Chad Beebe coming back and these guys, but you got to Justin Jefferson in the first round. The dude seems like a stud from my untrained eye. And I have no idea why you wouldn't get him out there because he does kind of fill that extra, you know, if you want Thielen outside more, you can get Jefferson mismatched in the slot, jump ball extraordinaire, awesome. But Adam Thielen is still the guy that I'm just way higher on him than anyone else in the rest of the industry pretty much.

I mean, he is my PPR wide receiver six going into next year. I just think everyone looks back at last season. Stephon Diggs, team high, 94 targets. And we're kind of just saying, all right, Kubiak's this, you know, run first OC. You don't want anyone involved in his passing game. Let's take a step back, people, because Kubiak's been coaching for the better part of almost three decades at this point. And you look at the years that Andre Johnson had in Houston, Demarius Thomas in Denver, Rod Smith in Denver before that. I mean, all in all, Kubiak's wide receiver one has averaged 138 targets per season.

And I know we need to look at the Diggs 94, but so much of that. I mean, PFF, you know, we track targets that go 20-plus yards downfield, and Diggs was just by far the league's best wide receiver on deep balls last year. So, yeah, it was 94 targets, but pretty friendly, pretty fancy friendly 94 targets. I think Thielen has an underrated chance at going, you know, 130 plus targets in an offense that run first. But, you know, let's face it, I'm sure we'll talk about this a little more, but defense continuity that's been there in years past isn't quite there.

I think the Vikings, you know, at the Dalvin Cook stuff does become an issue. We could see them just forced to pass more, just kind of off a less ideal game script. So, you know, Justin Jefferson, for how cheap he is in these fantasy drafts, I mean, a lot of these wide receivers are going outside the top 40, 50 dudes at their position. I don't mind a dart throw, but Adam Thielen is the one that, you know, has me over here salivating. I totally agree with your point on Thielen getting a vast, vast majority

of the targets. I went back myself and looked at Andre Johnson's, and it's mind-blowing. And former Texans quarterback Sage Rosenfels comes on the show sometimes, and when he would get in the game for Houston, he would just throw to Andre Johnson every time. Like that was his entire strategy. I'm going to target Andre Johnson every time. But with Kubiak's offense, they do want to run first.

But last year there were so many times where the Vikings got up against a bad team and then just ran the clock out. And they didn't have a lot of those shootouts. Against Detroit, they're playing against David Blau. So they get up early, they just hand off, run the clock out. Even week one, Kirk Cousins throws ten passes. You would never project that ever again to happen. So the combination of a defense that's going to go through some growing pains

potentially, and also a schedule that features a lot of good quarterbacks could end up with some shootouts. And I wonder how you think that might impact Kirk Cousins and his fantasy value. Man, Cousins just can't catch a break. I mean, he has that playoff game against the Saints where, I mean, especially that last throw, he just dropped into a bucket to Thielen.

This dude made two or three throws in that game that were just absolutely amazing. You know, the guy has him won on Monday night. He was a huge game player when it really mattered. And then a San Francisco defense that ate up everyone, you know, ate up this offensive line. He barely even had a chance. So I wish Kirk Cousins got kind of more love, I guess, from nationwide media because he just had the best season of his career for looking at any of these efficiency stats.

I mean, I know he didn't put up the usual gaudy counting numbers, but that comes back to what you were just saying. Like, he just didn't have the chance to in most of these weeks. He never threw 40 passes in the game last season, and there were weeks where they just get up. And, yeah, I mean, we should have known from that week one game on when they just got up on the Falcons and said, all right, Kirk, you know, here's your 12 pass attempts.

I should have known maybe to keep our expectations in check for digs and thielen but look it's he's an underrated guy to kind of boom up a little bit for sure in fantasy i do wonder just what is cousins floor because he actually used to run for touchdowns in washington and he had four or five every year he was there haven't quite seen that yet look, he was only the QB 16 in fantasy points per game back in 2018. So he's just kind of in that Ryan Tannehill acute layer, like Ben Roethlisberger. Just these QB 2s aren't really giving you too much rushing stuff. Do they have the talent to put up some passing numbers some weeks?

Yes. Still run first offense. I'm just not that high on Kirk Cousins from a fantasy perspective. But, hey, man, if they spike that volume and it keeps the efficiency going, we're going to see Kirk continue to make some plays. Before we get back to the conversation, I want to remind you to go to sodastick.com to get your original Minnesota sports-inspired goods.

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to Tommy Watkins Foundation's Backpack Program supporting Twin Cities youth. We're going to hook you up also with free shipping for your Wiener winner shirt. Use promo code PURPLEINSIDER for free shipping. That's SOTASTICK.COM, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.COM, original Minnesota sports-inspired goods. Code PURPLEINSIDER for free shipping. They did, in 2018, have him run like a QB option play at the goal line, and he had the worst dance ever in the end zone.

So maybe he could just not do that. But it actually is remarkable, though, where his running has gone. Because in Washington, he would run occasionally. There was a game against Kansas City where he ran twice in a final drive to get big first downs that ended up leading to them tying the game. They ended up giving up a game-winning drive because it's Washington's defense. But I wonder why that has happened. I doubt you have a great explanation for it, but do you ever see this happen with quarterbacks where they seem to have that

as part of their game a little bit and then it just completely disappears? So with Cousins, it's always kind of been a little bit fluky in the sense that they're all scramble related. I mean, I don't think – other than maybe a QB draw here and there. I mean, it's not like he's getting anything resembling Lamar Jackson, you know, design run usage. And honestly, no one really does other than Lamar Jackson Josh Allen and Kyla Murray and you know just a little bit off topic like Gardner Minshew

is a real popular late round quarterback pick this year because he finished fifth among all QBs and rushing yards last year literally all of his rushing yards were off of scrambles so that's something that wouldn't be shocking to see as future years go on as we see him with Cousins might not be as a consistent part of his game as we see with, you know, someone like Kyler or Lamar. Yeah, and it might actually go along, now that you say it, it sort of pops into my head that it might go along with just understanding the game better and being a better quarterback overall,

that you have to fewer times just pull it down and scramble. So that's interesting. But also, I don't think if you're the Vikings and you paid as much as you did for Kirk Cousins, you want him running too often. In week one, 2018, he kind of dove to try to get a first down and took a big hit. And everybody went like, no, no, no, no, no. You don't want to be doing that. I am curious about, I mean, everybody wants to know fantasy sleepers.

I'm sure that's the question you get asked the most. Who are the guys that I could draft later and get a home run on? But my question is, philosophically, just like in your work, how do you find them? What is it that you're looking for? I'm sure that it's position-specific. But when we talk about that, how do you get a good deal with somebody that you're not necessarily drafting?

Because everyone knows to pick Christian McCaffrey. But as they get later on like what is the strategy there? Yeah I think one thing I've seen at the wide receiver and tight end positions more so but you know really just think about because again love all players we hate ADPs it's not like we're all these players are awesome and there's a ton of players that they're on a different team they have much bigger roles and much bigger seasons, but that's not the reality. So I think taking a step back and really trusting opportunity over talent, because honestly what you and me think about a player's talent at the end of

the day, it doesn't matter. It matters what their coach thinks and how many reps he's going to give them to do something with it. So I think as you look at kind of deeper wide receiver tight end ranges, like just consider in a fairly normal season, like what needs to happen for that player to become a top two option in their team's passing game. And for some guys like, you know, we see me, Cole Hardman, the chiefs, you know,

electric second year wide receiver going in the wide receiver 30 range. I love me Cole Hardman, but you know, he couldn't get more than five snaps a game in the playoffs and they're bringing back everyone. So yeah, there's a, you know, if Tyreek goes down or something, or maybe they just finally bench Sammy Watkins, there's a path, but it's pretty tough to see, you know, if everything goes right. Meanwhile, we look at the Giants and Texans wide receivers.

All these guys are being priced wide receiver threes or lowers. And like someone is going to rise up to those passing games. They're, they're unproven passing games. And that's why these guys are being priced so low. I mean, I'm not saying you need to take them in top 20 wide receivers or anything, but their prices are, like, at their floor at this point. I mean, Will Fuller could emerge as a number three wide receiver in Houston and still meet his current ADP.

Brandon Cooks, same thing. Like, when you look at this offense with the Sean Watson, even to a lesser extent, Daniel Jones with the Giants, they are going to put up numbers someone's going to be getting those and you know another thing with that in the offense is kind of the Rams too when you see a quarterback that's being really highly graded high ADP and none of his teammates are or the opposite if we have a bunch of highly ranked wide receivers and running backs with the quarterbacks kind of down kind of like Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, that's another good spot to look for that value. So tight end, you know, like Chris Herndon's a guy who I'm loving this year because he could be the

Jets' number one receiver and everyone got burned on him last year. Should you go back to the well and treat him as a number one tight end? Of course not. But he's going at the tight end 20 or later. So, you know, you don't even need to treat him like that. So just really try to think about why a player is at their ADP. And if it's, you know, we hear a lot, oh, a guy's injury prone. That's the worst thing you can say about a guy. And, again, it's already being baked into his ADP. Don't be afraid to take a chance on those guys. Because if the opportunity gets there, they can really produce.

And injury prone is a funny thing because, you know, I've seen all sorts of guys get injured a couple times early in their career. Some fat guy fell on them. They twisted an ankle. Delvin Cook gets this a lot. Delvin Cook has an ACL. A lot of people have that happen. And then a fat guy did fall on him last year in Denver. It's like, well, he's injury prone. I don't know. I mean, it seems like there's just been some bad luck there too, potentially. And that's a hard one to figure out. The other one I wanted to ask you about was I don't know. I mean, it seems like there's just been some bad luck there too, potentially, and that's a hard one to figure out.

The other one I wanted to ask you about was defenses and kickers because defenses and kickers are weird as hell, man. I mean, like all of a sudden some kickers will show up that you have never heard of in your life, and they'll have amazing seasons. Some defenses that you think are going to be great just hit the wall. I mean, even the Vikings last year, they were fifth in points, which is good, but 14th in yards given up because a lot of guys hit the wall and they just weren't what they used to be. There's so many things.

You talk about, like, what's baked into it. Well, there's so many things baked into defense, who you play, luck factor, how your offense plays actually impacts your defense. How does your fantasy brain handle all that stuff? So, I mean, I wish we just didn't have kickers in the game of football at all. Maybe that's what's causing me to almost never, you know, even consider them much with fantasy. But, you know, just get the guys on good offenses.

It's, you know, it is helpful to look at, you know, Vegas total. Vegas over and under is, you know, go find the highest potential scoring game of the week. That's the one that all the odds makers think is going to score the most points. Try to get a kicker from those games. So I don't have much more to add on the kicker side of things. Defense, we can truly bake defenses around what their schedule is. And that's why people got on San Francisco last year.

I mean, it wasn't – I don't think many people had the foresight to just realize their defensive line was just going to be full of monsters all season. But they had that week one matchup against Jameis and the Buccaneers. A lot of people got them, you know, had another OK matchup against Cincinnati. The rest is history. So I did just publish an article today, you know, breaking down the strength of schedule for, you know, every position, including defenses. And the one team that really popped out to me are the Indianapolis Colts because, I mean, this start of the season is juicy, man.

Jaguars, Vikings, which, okay, that's tough. Jets, Bears, and then Browns and Bengals before their week seven bye. I mean, this, okay, that's great. And we're looking at those quarterbacks, and that's, you know, even if they're not awful players, we know that they're at least prone to having, you know, their turnover fits. Titans are getting Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, and Steelers. I swear I'm not picking on the Vikings.

They happen to be the number one team for these guys. And the final one, the Bills, we have the Jets, Dolphins, Rams, and Raiders. So really look at those first four weeks. Don't be afraid just to stream these guys up and down. Even the Patriots last year, I mean, for as incredible as they were in the first eight, nine weeks of the season, I mean, when you're playing Lamar Jackson, I don't care who your defense is. You probably shouldn't be playing the defense that week.

So stream, stream, stream, man. And if you're in a league where you do not need to draft a kicker in defense, you know, you got to play him, but you don't need to draft him. Do not, because it is way more valuable to get some handcuffed RB, especially when you're picking in July. You know, get 20 players on your roster

and then you can go cut someone in a month or two. Yeah, I was going to ask you about that, about like, get 20 players on your roster, and then you can go cut someone in a month or two. Yeah, I was going to ask you about that, about, like, do you pick a defense and then just stick with it and kind of hope that it works out, or do you chase from week to week? Oh, I'm chasing, man, all day. Oh, that makes a lot of sense. Ian, this has been really insightful, especially for us not-so-great fantasy players.

I think fantasy is like golf. There's 11 people in the world who are good at it and everybody else has fun with it, but gets mostly angry. It's exactly the same way, I think. So, but I really do appreciate the insight. I'm glad you're with PFF now and you are doing the PFF Fantasy Podcast as well as you're writing at pff.com. So I suggest everybody go follow you on Twitter at I Heart Itz. That's H-A-R-T-I-T-Z on Twitter. So great stuff, Ian.

Great to have you. Thanks for having me, man. That was fun. And, you know, go Vikes, at least for fantasy purposes. Exactly. Hey, before we get back to the conversation, I want to remind you that sports are coming back, Exactly. Formula One, and the Premier League. Can't wait for your favorite team to come back. BetOnline has future odds on win totals, division winners, and even league championships. Or check out our daily simulations of Madden NBA 2K to watch and wager on.

Visit BetOnline.ag. Use the promo code BLUEWIRE to receive your new welcome bonus. That's promo code BLUEWIRE. BetOnline, your online wagering experts. All right, before we wrap up the show, something important is happening here. Intern Paul,

we have done a couple of episodes of five questions with intern Paul, but I think it's time since he has done well, especially on a recent piece, helping me out with diving into why the Vikings are so poor in Chicago, that I think it's time to make it full Hot Routes. So you get the intro and then all of the Hot Route questions, and he gets to give his opinion. It's like taking that next career step. So first, our Hot Routes intro.

There's news in the NFL today, and it's time to break it down in the only way we know how. Hot Routes style. Earl! Johnny! With our spin on football headlines with a mix of frozen tundras. Let's be a cold weather team. Neck rolls. I'm a hot new boomer, and Grab Game Jerseys. The good old-fashioned guts was probably the biggest difference in the game.

Okay, Intern Paul, it's a huge day for you. Yeah, big promotion. I've been working towards this for a while now. When I first heard the Hot Routes music, you know, I was like, it'd be great if after that role, they'd hear my voice one day. And, you know, to have this happen so quickly, it's just, it's mind boggling, but I'm ready. I'm ready for it. Well, A, you've earned it. B, I'm very proud of you. I mean, when I first started Purple Insider, I didn't expect to even have an intern, much less one who would rise through the ranks to co-host a Hot Route segment. So now the pressure is on. See, when you're the intern, it's like, well, you know, he makes mistakes, just an intern, who cares? But now you're still

just the intern, but you have the responsibility now to come up with great questions. So why don't you start us out? Our first Hot route question from you, Intern Paul. All right, perfect. Well, I'll go off one of the other podcasts from earlier this week with Eric Eager. It got me thinking when he was going through the whole schedule about which games he was kind of predicting as wins you were saying, or losses you were saying, well, they might be able to win that. So I wanted to know, what's the single hardest game when you look at it to predict on the Vikings schedule? Yeah, I, you know, I think with this one, it really comes down to which other team do you not feel like you know at all? And for me, that probably is the Colts game where on Twitter,

after we published Eric's podcast, some people were unhappy with him picking the Vikings to go to Indianapolis and lose. But my question is, what is left of Phillip Rivers? How much of an advantage does Indianapolis have on the road? If there are fewer fans, that place might be hard to play in normally, but if there's no fans inside that dome, is that different for the Vikings offense? Does it feel like you're at home? I mean, it's not a long travel from Minnesota to Indianapolis. It's like an hour and a half or two hour flight. So does it feel like you're just in your own stadium at that point? And last year when they played Rivers, he was just a disaster, especially in the second half

of that game. And his overall performance last season was pretty darn rough. So are we supposed to expect now without incredible weapons? I think T.Y. Hilton is good. I also think that Michael Pittman Jr. will be very good eventually, but I mean, we're not exactly talking about having Julio Jones here on that offense. They have a good offensive line. That might help Phillip Rivers, but I don't know how much of him is left if there's a decent amount left it seems like every year we think that he is down we think oh he's done and then he bounces back like he did in 2018 so is he going to be good the bounce back Rivers is he going to be the completely washed Rivers that just wants to go home to his 13 children I have no idea so I think that one is the toughest one. What do you think?

Well, one thing on Phillip Rivers first, it feels like no one has an in-between opinion on Phillip Rivers. It's either he had a terrible situation with the Chargers. He's going to have a great offensive line. Jonathan Taylor running back to Y. Hilton. He's going to take off or it's, you know, do you see him last year? He's washed. It doesn't matter what he's got. So that one will be hard. And all the AFC South games for me are kind of a little interesting other than maybe the Jaguars game because Titans you don't really know what Tannehill I think we know we have in Deshaun Watson but everything else on that team is kind of a question mark without DeAndre Hopkins that one's a tough one where I'm like well they're are they really that good Bill O O'Brien, all that stuff. But then it's like, well, they still have Deshaun Watson.

So all the AFC South games really have me not really figuring it out. And when you look at Vegas, they don't know what to do with Houston either. I think they have them at seven and a half wins or seven wins, depending on where you look. And I think, is a Deshaun Watson team really only going to win seven games and they have not the greatest receivers but it's also these guys aren't complete garbage either like Kenny Stills and Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller they have succeeded in the NFL before and I have a tough time thinking that Deshaun Watson won't be able to win but they are not anywhere near as strong as they used to be.

That's also another team that, surprisingly, Houston has a very good home field advantage in recent years. I think they're at the very top. I looked at this earlier this offseason in point differential at home over the last few seasons, and now, again, do they have that home field advantage? Yeah, I'm with you that a lot of the other teams in the NFC you feel like you've got a good handle on except for them the other nominee I would have

is the Falcons they've made a good amount of changes this offseason but is it going to be any different than it was for the Falcons last year am I supposed to expect more I don't know toward the end of last season they were actually a really competitive team the Vikings caught them at the right time so now it'll be in the middle of last season, they were actually a really competitive team. The Vikings caught them at the right time. So now it'll be in the middle of the season. Is their coach still their coach at that point? Are they a surprising team that nobody saw coming? I think both of those are hard.

All right, moving on to our next question. Our next hot route. Hot route. Sorry, not sorry. I'm learning. I'm learning. It'll take time. Monday, the seventh round pick, Nate Stanley. I'm learning. I'm learning. It'll take time. Monday, the seventh round pick Nate Stanley signed his contract.

When I saw it, I read the article and said, you know, it's the first Viking to sign their contract. And to me, that was a little bit like, whoa, we're we're pretty far removed from the draft. Why is only one pick seventh round pick signed? And maybe this is normal. Maybe this isn't. I wanted you to explain maybe why others haven't signed yet. If this is par for the course or if this is normal maybe this isn't I wanted you to explain maybe why others haven't signed yet if this is par for the course or if this is different it has been pretty normal in past years for a lot of the rookies to play through OTAs and minicamp without having signed their contracts yet and then once they get almost to the point where it's training camp then they start to sign their deals and I think that a big part of it this year is the uncertainty with an Anthony Harris contract extension, potentially, as we record this,

we don't know yet, maybe by the time you're listening to it, we'll know if he's on his franchise tag or if he's signed a long term deal. But let's assume that he's on his franchise tag, then it's probably a Delvin Cook situation that might impact it. They have to know exactly how much money they have left to be able to sign the rookie class. This is way different, though, in past years. I mean, if you go back a ways, there would be holdouts. First-round picks would miss almost all of training camp because they were negotiating these deals. Sam Bradford was kind of the

straw that broke the camel's back with that, where he got one of the biggest deals in the NFL, having not thrown a pass yet. And the NFL said, okay, let's work out a different way to do this and start to slot these guys. And there's also been small language things that I fully don't understand when it comes to guarantees, guarantees for injuries, all those sorts of different things that take working out. But I think it's mostly they want to work out these other questions on the roster first, and then they'll be able to start signing their rookies when they know exactly how much money they have. Because if they started signing their rookies and then a new deal with Delvin Cook couldn't get done because of it, that would be a big problem.

All right, continuing on with Hot Route 3. Thank you. And with the uncertainty, just the theme of that a little bit, there's starting to be a little growing concern that college football may be canceled. Big Ten's now reducing their schedule. They said that is just step one. There could be more things moving on. And so if that season gets wiped out,

Saturdays are going to be open for football. What do you think of the NFL? They said they're looking into it. Like, is that something you'd be in favor of? I know there's always people when college football plays on Friday, you get the people, well, that's hurting high school football. Maybe without college football, people won't be on that territory as much, but maybe still Saturdays are for college football. Stay on Sundays. Where do you land on them expanding and maybe playing on Saturday? First of all, I think it would be smart for college football to just move their season to the spring and hope that we have flattened the curve much better or at very least have better testing by then,

better scientific advancements and a better plan. We feel like we're only a couple of weeks out from all of this starting and we just don't have a good plan to protect all the players. If you give us another five months, then maybe that'll be better. And look, it would mess up everything for the NFL draft and the combine, whatever. But our whole world is messed up anyway. So if that has to happen for one year where college football players play in the spring, I would be for that. Because a lot of these schools are just straight up canceling all their fall sports. And I wouldn't be surprised if more of that happens, considering just the COVID numbers

and how they continue to shoot up and up and up and set daily records. I think it's safer if college football plays in the spring and pushes that back. Now, if the NFL, in all of its money, can figure out ways to play safely and college football isn't, then bring it on. Play every darn day of the week if you can. I mean, we have been so starved. It has been four months, man, since Rudy Gobert tested positive and all sports shut down. So here we are with nothing. It's going to be a flood of sports coming back, but I am all for the NFL filling up Saturdays if that's what's going on. I mean, I don't know about you, but every Saturday is usually the off day for the NFL and for

reporters as well. You know, you're finishing up your Sunday pieces and things like that, but mostly just hanging around the house on Saturday for your off day and watching college football. So if it ended up being that there was no college football, I mean, what am I going to do? No offense to golf fans, but am I going to watch, like, the third day of the tournament each week? That's not as compelling to me as if they bumped up some NFL games.

And it also might help with just flexibility if you do have to reschedule a game or move things around because there are positive tests. I think that's a pretty likely scenario. So if you have Saturdays open and you're willing to play on Saturdays, then I say go for it. Yeah, I'm all for it as well. I think the only people that might be against it is the coaches that we'll talk about in their press conference of having one less day to prepare, one less day to get healthy. You know, those will always come out.

Heart out number four, on Monday, NFL.com had an article predicting one first-time Pro Bowler for every AFC team. I assume they'll go to NFC soon, but I wanted to ask you, who would you predict kind of is along the breakout person on a player on the Vikings, but a first-time Pro Bowler on the Vikings for this year? First of all, the Pro Bowl is hilarious. I mean, what a mess sometimes. Last year, Eric Hendricks does not get elected to the Pro Bowl at first, but he makes All-Pro. In 2017, Harrison Smithricks does not get elected to the Pro Bowl at first, but he

makes All-Pro. In 2017, Harrison Smith had a good case for defensive MVP and ended up All-Pro, but the first time through was not elected to the Pro Bowl. So there are a lot of mind-blowing results, and you never know what could happen there. I would say two players come to mind on the offensive side of the ball for the Vikings, and that is Brian O'Neill and Irv Smith. Brian O'Neill is finally starting to get some of the attention he deserves. It's always a little harder for right tackles. I know that people were up in arms that Mitchell Schwartz was not included in ESPN's top 10 tackles, and deservedly so. Like, the right tackle, left tackle value is not what it used to be because everyone has so many great edge rushers

but right tackles end up going under the radar Willie Anderson is a guy who should be in the hall of fame for the Bengals back in the day before your time intern Paul but one of the great players in the league throughout those years but right tackle didn't get all the attention I think Brian O'Neill is going to deal with that a little bit. But at the same time, if he takes one more step forward, he is going from a good player right now to potentially great players. He comes into his prime. So I think he's got a shot. Irv Smith, you're going to have somebody that is open

that is not named Adam Thielen, right? And I think that's going to be Irv Smith. Things will be especially hard for Justin Jefferson stepping in without a full offseason. To me, the number two receiver on this team is Irv Smith, but if you're a tight end and you end up with 60 catches, 70 catches, you've got a really good chance at making the Pro Bowl. We know Kelsey's going to make it from Kansas City. We know that George Kittle's going to make it. Beyond that, though, I don't

know. For the next wave of tight ends in the NFL, Irv Smith could be in that. On the defensive side, Anthony Harris deserved it last year, probably has a shot at it this year after getting much more attention with his contract situation. Your dark horse might be a Fadi Adenabo as your dark horse. If the guy ends up with 12 sacks or something because everyone's putting their attention on Daniel Hunter, you know that the voters are going to look at sack numbers and go off of those. So I think that those are probably the best nominees. Yeah, those were the names I had in mind. And the other thing I wanted to just say is when I was looking through the AFC ones, I happened on the Buffalo Bills and it's Stephon Diggs. And it just, again, shocks me that he at no point was a Pro Bowler

given all his seasons here and especially last year he was a snub it's just it's crazy that he never he never got a Pro Bowl. Well I think they only have is it three or four it might be four Pro Bowl wide receivers when really there's so many good players at that position you could easily take six and I remember going through this in 2018 looking at Diggs's numbers saying I mean he's got just as good of a case as a lot of these other players but they weren't as good as a team in 2018 so that was part of the issue and there were just other guys who had great seasons too and I don't think Pro Bowl voters study the contested catch stats the route running tape and stuff like that I mean you look at the fantasy numbers and who's putting up big stats,

usually to elect the Pro Bowl. And Diggs has always been right there as far as good stats, but he's always had to split a lot of that pie with Adam Thielen or last year with Delvin Cook and them being a run first team. So if you don't have those fantasy stats, then you don't end up making the Pro Bowls. But of course there have been multiple years, if not every year since he's come into the league, that he's been deserving.

All right, our final hot rod. This one's my favorite for the week. On Monday, it was announced that Greg Olson signed a future contract to be Fox's number two NFL analyst. So whenever he's done, they've got that spot open for him. So on the current Vikings, who would be the best color commentator? Yeah, that's a good question because you can go a little bit deep in the weeds with this one for guys that people don't necessarily know or talk to that often. And Afadi Adenabo would be one of them. He's a great talker. Really, really bright guy.

Went to Northwestern. Also has kind of a unique personality and a sense of humor. Alexander Madison is another guy. He was on the podcast here, and anybody who listened to him would tell you that he is an extremely bright guy, also another one with personality who could probably bring a lot of X's and O's insight and be fun to listen to from that perspective. I would have to say this one is really off the board. Sean Mannion is one of the best guys that I have ever talked to to break down the game. Like I asked Sean Mannion for a story last year about throwing after practice. We talked for like

15 minutes about throwing after practice because he was just breaking it down. I mean, he has a personality that people would really enjoy listening to, a great attitude. That's how you become a longtime backup quarterback, by the way, is if you embrace that role and you've got a good attitude and you can fully, deeply understand the game, that's how you get one of those jobs. So Sean Mannion would be another pick for me. Brian O'Neill is pretty entertaining too. He's another guy I might throw on that list. The darkest of dark horses also was on this podcast, Tyler Conklin, who has a, he's got a fun personality as well, but probably, yeah, probably Sean Manning of all the guys could bring the best insight. And no surprise, we see backup quarterbacks all over the league as head coaches and as analysts. Dan

Orlovsky only played a handful of games in his career, but he's on ESPN every single day because he's good at breaking it down and has a good attitude. Yeah, from my limited one-year covering of the team, guys that I just really were super open to talking and had a good thought on the game, Anthony Harris comes to mind. He's really good. Stephon Diggs is gone now, but I think he wouldn't be afraid to tell you what he's thinking of all the teams. I'm not sure you would ever want to do that. Kyle Rudolph comes to mind as well.

They all went into the game pretty deeply. But I think your picks, I never got a chance to talk to Sean Mannion, but based on what you said, I think he'd be the go-to guy. 100% if I was putting odds, I did not think of Rudolph, but Rudolph will have a broadcast career. You could almost guarantee that. He didn't come to mind right away for me, if I was putting odds, I did not think of Rudolph, but Rudolph will have a broadcast career. I can, you could almost guarantee that he didn't come to mind right away, um, for me, but in terms of someone who is a polished talker already, who would be perfect for TV, um, that's probably in his future. I think he'll follow along the steps of somebody like Greg Olson eventually. Um, and,

and he's, he's, uh, got kind of that, you know, TV look sort of thing, you know, when he gets all dressed up. I think he could have that, you know, the hair is all nice and everything else, the fashion part of it. So, yeah, no, I definitely agree with you. That's a great pick for Kyle Rudolph to be a future TV analyst. All right, Paul, I would give you – I'll give you a solid B for your first run through the hot routes.

I'll take it. You did not have any 1990s NFL references because you weren't born then. So that's, I'll work on that. Yeah. It's always going to be a tick off. So but if you haven't checked it out on purpleinsider.com Paul's research for the Chicago bears in Minnesota Vikings history at Soldier Field is truly hilarious and remarkable. So make sure you go check that out and we will talk to you next time on Purple Insider.