Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - SI's Will Ragatz makes the case for the Vikings beating the Giants

Episode Date: January 13, 2023

Matthew Coller and Will Ragatz of Sports Illustrated are both going to pick the Vikings to win against the Giants and explain their reasoning. Will talks about why he has confidence in Kevin O'Connell's gameplan and they look at some key stats that suggest the Giants do not have a good defense. Plus, what if they win, what if they lose? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here for our weekly hardcore matchup breakdown playoff edition with Will Raggett of Sports Illustrated. Will, you excited? Let's see, second playoff game covering? Yeah.

On the beat? Third. Well, I wasn't in Newleans for the game in 2019 i was in san francisco the following week but i suppose it's the third that i've been around since uh since the beat and then first home one first home playoff game since the minneapolis miracle which i believe you were in attendance for i was yeah the blood's flowing a little different today i got a little extra pep in my step. It's playoffs. It's like Matt Daniels just said.

It's week one again. It's a reset. It's a new season. And I'm excited. I'm fascinated to see what happens this week. And I think the added element of it being a rematch with such close proximity is pretty cool too. So I want to do it this way. Usually we wait all the way until the

end of the show to talk about whether we think they will win or lose i want to actually lead the show with that and then talk about why so i am going to pick the vikings to win this game but only by three points if you told me it was another 60 yard field goal i would completely believe you i think that when you look at the accumulation of their strengths and weaknesses of both teams, it really puts them on an even playing field. And like Vegas is doing, I just give the slight edge to U.S. Bank Stadium. I think that there are very few venues that actually impact the other team, but playoffs for this stadium, for this team, I think that it will.

How do you feel about it? Well, it would probably be more interesting if I said I think the Giants are going to win and then we could go back and forth on that. But I don't really want to just stray from what I believe and go that route and force it. I do think the Vikings are going to win this game. And I think there's a few reasons. and a big one is U.S. Bank Stadium. But I also just, I don't know, all season long I felt like this Vikings team

has another level that it was going to go to at some point. It was going to get to because of the coaching and because of the veteran talent and just kind of the blue-chip star talent that they have, if you look at the roster, really across the board and both sides of the ball, they have several very, very talented players and experienced players. And I've just always felt like at some point that was going to shine through and they were going to put it together for three or four quarters and play a good game.

And who knows? Maybe it could happen this week. I just trust the Vikings quarterback a little bit more. I trust Justin Jefferson and some of these defensive players, Daniil Hunter, Zedarius Smith, and Kevin O'Connell and US Bank Stadium. And I could absolutely easily see the Giants winning this game. It's looked at as a toss-up by a lot of people or close to that. And the Giants, we just saw a couple weeks ago, posed a lot of problems for the Vikings with offensively and and with how much they blitz defensively but I just man it would it would it

would be something kind of brutal for Vikings fans if the first one score loss of the year comes in the playoffs in the first round at home I don't think it's gonna happen I think they win another one score game well I think that your point about just the offenses in general and what the Vikings have to work with here is just vastly better than what the Giants have to work with I mean yeah okay Saquon Barkley has had a much better season than Delvin Cook but aside from that I mean you're talking about an offense that kind of has to spread the ball to everybody all the time because they don't have a dominant receiver in the Giants they do not have a quarterback that is proven though he has played better down the stretch and they've adjusted things about their offense but it's still not a quarterback that you believe in taking them to

another level even if he again even if he performed well against this defense you just can't trust you know somebody like Daniel Jones who's having his best season ever and it's really not even that great of a season. What has he got, like 15 touchdowns or something? And that's like his best season ever by far. And here's Kirk Cousins having a down season statistically in some ways from what he's been before, but also has kind of played better down the stretch and had some bigger games down the stretch. But of course, I mean, one team has Justin Jefferson and TJ Hawkinson and the other team doesn't.

And I don't know if the offensive lines are that different even if they're banged up. Like the Giants do not have a great offensive line. They have a great offensive line men in Andrew Thomas, just like the Vikings with Christian Derrissaw. So then it kind of comes down to, is the Vikings defense going to be so bad that they let him do it again? And if they let him do it again, then you take the risk of letting Daniel Jones have another career day or letting the

Giants hang around or letting them make big plays because on paper, offense versus offense, which is usually more predictable of where this thing's going to go, it just really isn't that close. I mean, the Vikings were eighth in scoring, the Giants were 15th, and part of that was fueled by a huge game against the Indianapolis Colts, where they put up a bunch of points and Daniel Jones played very well. But I guess my question is, do we think that the Vikings are playing good football right now? Because it is such a week to week league. I don't know if you ever heard that will, but you think about it's like, okay, so they lost to the Lions had to come back against the Colts played a field goal game to the Giants in which that was very, very back and forth and then got crushed by the Packers. For some reason, winning against the Bears has had vibes for them. It shouldn't.

It shouldn't at all. Like it shouldn't mean anything at all. And yet that is kind of how it's felt. It's like, no, we're playing great football right now. Like, wait, are you? Have you been? Like when? I don't really know that they have been recently playing better than they were early in the year.

I don't know what your opinion on that is. Yeah, I mean, maybe psychologically just getting a win, getting a not one-score win could make you feel a little better. But, yeah, that game was meaningless. The Bears wanted to lose. They were playing, like, delivery drivers at quarterback. And it just – it was meaningless from, like, what can we learn perspective. But maybe there's something there. And I think the Vikings kind of peaked in terms of the way they were playing

in midseason. There was a stretch. They beat the Dolphins in an eight-point game that wasn't really that close. They come off the bye. They beat the Cardinals in a seven- or eight-point game that wasn't really that close. They go to Washington and win. They go to Buffalo and win that crazy.

That's when, to me, when I was like, all right, I know these games are all still close, but I think this team's playing legitimately pretty well right now. And then it's kind of fluctuated since then. And they've had some moments. But on the whole, you look back at the most recent actually relevant data point, and it's still that Packers game that was really ugly. And it's, I mean, they've fallen behind by 33 against the Colts not that long ago. So I think they certainly have the potential and the ability to play good football. We just haven't seen it that consistently of late. And I think the Giants are going to come into this game feeling kind of confident because a few weeks ago they came into this building and played right with the Vikings and were right in

that game it took a 61 yard field goal to beat them and there were a few different things like there was a blocked punt by Josh Metellus that really changed the game and set up a touchdown and that's probably not going to happen again this week and there were a few like dropped interceptions by the Giants that Kirk Cousins could have thrown and and various things like that and now they get Xavier McKinney the safety, probably a Dory Jackson, their top cornerback back. I think those are important pieces when you look at, I mean, Justin Jefferson, TJ Hawkinson absolutely torched them. There was really nothing they could do against either of those guys last time. So now the balance has shifted a little bit and we can talk about the run game, which I think is, is really interesting from a Vikings perspective of just how poor it's been.

But in the playoffs, what matters? It's not really the running game. I mean, coaches will say that like, Oh, you gotta be able to run the football and impose your will and all that. And sure there's truth to that,

but what matters is being Patrick Holmes and being able to throw the football really well and just attacking through the air. And I think I have more confidence, even with the Giants getting some DBs back, I have more confidence in the Vikings successfully throwing the football at a high level than I do in the Giants. Although maybe that's misguided because Daniel Jones threw for like 340 yards last time. Yeah, no, he did. To Ricky James and Isaiah Hodgins.

He looked fantastic, fantastic honestly in that game uh the crazy thing is that they just don't push the ball down the field at all so if they're explosive play yeah sorry the giants so well i mean the vikings don't that often either when it's not to just to jefferson but it makes uh it makes kirk cousins look like the mad bomber when it comes to throwing down the field when you're talking about Daniel Jones because he just never throws deep and doesn't have receivers to do it but I also think that the Vikings weakness is allowing those underneath routes to be wide open all the time and confusion with the linebackers and teams attacking Chandon Sullivan and all those things

but you know the Giants, it could be a little healthier here. That does make a difference. But on paper, on the whole, they're not really very good. And, you know, we, they kind of have the same thing where everyone talks about wink Martindale and talks about like, oh, he blitzes all the time and he's a great defensive mind and so forth. And we go through the roster and there is a lot to like on their defensive line. There's not a lot to like anywhere else. I mean, their linebacker situation, even if a Dory Jackson is playing, he's not playing at 100%. He's been dealing with a knee issue that's kept him out.

And I don't even think it's 100% clear that he's going to play as of this recording. So, I mean, if he's playing, then he's a little banged up trying to stop the greatest receiver on earth. So I think that the secondary for the Giants being so weak, you know what this game sort of feels like? It feels like you don't have control over the things that will probably determine it. And what I mean is usually we could talk about an offense versus defense and we could say, well, this team is better because their offense is going to take care of this defense or this quarterback's better than that quarterback. Like that's why one team will win and one team will lose. But with this one, it does feel like, you know, the Vikings have an edge there, but I don't trust the Donatello defense

still. It feels like the things you can't control are a strip sack a tipped interception a special teams excuse me a special teams play like those things they've determined so many games for this and even matt daniels was just talking about like yeah he didn't expect for so many plays to impact games in in massive ways like they did good and bad. But even against the Giants in the last time, I mean, the Giants get a punt blocked and that's how the Vikings score to go up by eight points and ultimately end up winning the game because of it. There's just been so many moments where things that aren't really in your command or they

don't feel like you can really pinpoint in previewing the game will determine two teams that are so close like this. Yeah, and that's kind of the cool thing about playoff football is like the stakes are so high that one play, special teams especially, but offense, defense, one play, one bounce can turn a game. And Wes Phillips was just talking about it too. Like in order to make the run that the Rams did to win the Super Bowl last year, they needed a lot of bounces to go their way and various things like they won a bunch of close games. And he was talking about his dad being with the Broncos when they made a run to win the Super Bowl. Like just things keep kind of going your way. And that has to happen unless you are this absolutely dominant team on both sides of the ball, which the Vikings are certainly not.

And so there's an element element of kind of unpredictability. I think what the Vikings have is a good mix of guys who have experienced playoff football and then some young guys who haven't. Jefferson is playing in his first playoff game. But you've got, especially on defense, Harrison Smith has played in six playoff games with the Vikings going back to his rookie year in 2012. Zedarius Smith, I think, has played in six playoff games with the Packers and even one with the Ravens. And you've got guys like Jordan Hicks has been to a Super Bowl. There's a lot of veterans on this defense that have had this experience. And so I think one big play hitting against him, they're not going to tense up and panic and they're going to be able to hopefully figure it out. And so I think that that gives

you confidence going into the game if you're a a Vikings fan that yes, this defense has kind of looked rough all year, but there's still that, that talent there that is, has shined through at times. And you look at the last game against the Giants, Daniel Hunter had nine pressures, his best game of the year and a sack. He was just abusing Evan Neal, the Giants right tackle. He had a strip sack on Daniel Jones that they actually recovered. That could have been a big play. And then Patrick Peterson gives up a bunch of catches to Isaiah Hodgins, but he gets an interception late in the game.

And Z'Darrius Smith, who said yesterday he's been kind of limited by a knee contusion for the second half of the season, he had six pressures in that game, and he's saying he's back to feeling 100%. So I just think the Vikings have these difference-making players that in the playoffs, when the stakes are high and it helps to have been there before, I just think that there's a good chance that that shines through. Now, the Giants have good players too. And I think the matchup you're most concerned about in this game, maybe Saquon Barkley, but it's their defensive line. And we talked about it before the last game. Dexter Lawrence is really, really, really good. He might be the best interior

defensive lineman in the league this year. Aaron Donald missed some time and wasn't really peak Aaron Donald. It's like Dexter Lawrence or Chris Jones, or there's a couple others you could maybe have in that conversation. He's been unbelievable. And the Vikings might be starting Chris Reid at center because we still don't know what's going on with Garrett Bradbury's back the Vikings had Brian O'Neill in the last game against the Giants they no longer have Brian O'Neill so it's gonna be Ole Udo or Blake Brandel going against Kayvon Thibodeau so who's a good young player so I think that's the the matchup that concerns you the Giants we know are gonna blitz a ton they like Wes Phillips said if if if Wink Martindale has a change up or a curveball, it's

not going to be not blitzing. It's going to be different blitzes because that's just what he does. And he has so many of them. And Kirk Cousins has been successful against the blitz at times, but there's such a fine margin there where if you are 0.1 seconds late getting the ball out, you get hit, the ball pops up in the air, gets picked, or you get stripped. The blitzing element creates this chaos when the, when the giants are on defense that I think is, is really fascinating. It's something the Vikings have to plan for.

Yeah. You know, what's funny about the giants is they have only six interceptions this year. So maybe that doesn't happen that much for them, right? Like, I don't know why that would only six interceptions. And they have 41 sacks, but that's not that many.

Like the league leader has 70 and it's actually kind of crazy. Philadelphia has 70 sacks and the next best team is 55. Wow. That's that's wild. But I mean, still, I mean, from the elite teams, the Giants, as much as they blitz, they're 13th in sacks. They're just sort of, okay. Like there's nothing really on paper that says that their defense should be scary.

And again, this would be why I'm ultimately picking them. But, uh, at the, at the beginning of the week, Brian Murphy and I talked about just like, who do you believe in like the belief O meter? And I'm curious from your perspective, like, do you believe in Kevin O'Connell's ability to scheme around the natural issues on the offensive line? Because this is a huge question for me. The third down sacks that Kirk Cousins has taken this year, there's just been a ton of them. I respect that Kevin O'Connell wants to run receivers deep down the field, but it's also resulted in a lot of QB hits, a lot of sacks and going past the sticks again, respectable for your route combinations, but it's also just made

for some serious negative plays. Uh, and when they're behind in games, he's gotten sacked a lot and things like that. So you would have concern about if you fall behind at all, and then you're trying to pass, pass, pass. Well, this isn't the Indianapolis Colts. This is a much more dangerous defense, and you can't do that. So I wonder about your belief of Kevin O'Connell, knowing the weapons that he has and the opportunity that's there for them to have a huge day on offense against a defense that it's hard to find on paper where they're actually any good. What is the belief-o-meter for that?

Well, quickly quickly i was just looking at the uh giant stats that you referenced because i i thought they had a pretty good turnover differential and they do it's because they're tied for second in the league in forced fumbles so that's something to keep an eye on but no i i tend to be pretty bullish on kevin o'connell just from being around him and kind of seeing the adjustments that the offense has made this year and some of the things he's done on third downs and in the red zone. And, I mean, what the Rams did last year, he played a big role in that as well. And so I tend to have a pretty good amount of belief in him

and having kind of the repertoire to plan for things and scheme for various things and make adjustments. I think this week is such a cool chess match because they just played each other it's like a division game where you just you see a team twice in three weeks like that happens sometimes it's it's really cool but now the stakes are way higher because it's a playoff game it's win or go home and i think with the talent the vikings have and with kind of it's kevin o'connell but it's also west phillips and the other uh offensive coaches that they have in those offensive meetings and installs.

So I think I have a pretty good amount of belief in Kevin O'Connell, kind of maybe anticipating some changes from the Giants. But that's the question is do you go in with a similar game plan and then see what they throw at you and adjust from there? Do you anticipate adjustments this week and put in your counters before maybe even those adjustments have happened? It really is a chess match, which I think is the coolest thing. It's going to be super fun to watch.

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yeah i guess i'm not really sure because throughout the season we've sort of and i don't want i don't mean like wavered on kevin o'connell as a good hire or as a good leader or you know somebody who he made good on all of the promises that he made at the beginning of the season about how they would build their culture and everything else and and that's important and just as a side note i saw people tweeting yesterday about coaching hires and things like that. And the reality is you have no idea. Unless you're hiring Urban Meyer, and we can all guess it's going to blow up. You have no idea how that's going to work out.

And it couldn't have worked out any better. You have 13 wins. Like you're a division winner and you're in this position to go potentially deep in the playoffs. So, you know, home playoff game game you made the right hire home run but there have been a lot of offensive lulls that's what i was going to say it's like but at times and i that's the minnesota way of doing anything right is like you set it up for that but like well i you know i've always uh liked you as a neighbor but i really wish you'd stop using your leaf blower at 7 a.m uh but anyway the just with kevin o'connell there

have been lots of lulls i agree and there have been times where i think we've wondered like does he really does he really have it mastered with the play calling and and i know that's like the easiest thing to criticize in sports but also the most complicated because you can always when a play doesn't work out you could just be like oh play calling play calling but i think that in terms of like when to use the run what identity do they want to have week to week at times it's been like well we're going to try you know to be a bootleg team this week and then we're going to be five wide more this week and do we use kj osborne no not for most of the season until the end of the year and like does anyone get the ball except for justin jefferson not really um cj ham had four catches

last he did yeah and and what a day it was so there have just been these times where and and the galaxy brain stuff of course where it's like trying a little too hard to be yeah tricky and clever and and i don't really know how that's all going to come to fruition here because the question that keeps being asked, and there's no good way for them to answer it to us without telling us the game plan is like, well, what are you going to do different? Because you had a great offensive day against the giants last time, like you moved the ball against them and you had these huge performances, but at the same time, they got away from the run game that was working and they did have to punt a few times and open the door. And that's, it just feels like the margin of error also, because the defense is so bad

is very small. Like when Pat Shermer was the office of coordinator or even Kevin Stefanski, those defenses were good and maybe we wouldn't have been so critical and like, Oh, well they had to punt, but that's fine. Cause they're getting the ball right back because that defense is great where every miscue everything that doesn't work it just gets magnified i mean i think my belief-o-meter would be pretty high it's just that i think that the margin for error for cousins for the offense for o'connell it becomes very thin when my belief-o-meter in the defense is still not very high yeah and you can tell at times throughout this year that Kevin O'Connell knows and obviously

he knows he watches every plays around the team every day all day like he knows that the defense has not been playing very well and there were things that he was doing at various times in games where you're like okay he's taking some risks here because he doesn't want the defense to be on the field. And he's going for it on, on fourth down. It was, it was, I'm thinking of like the first half against the Colts when that really spiraled and they went for two fourth downs in their own territory, kind of trying to play catch up. And there's just been times like that where he is aware of the struggles of the defense. And so that margin of error, like you said, is so small. And we've never seen Kevin O'Connell call plays in a playoff game before. That was Sean McVay last year. This is a new thing. And he's learned throughout the year. He's kind of grown, I think.

And he's done some things well, and he's done some things not very well. And you look at that last Giants game, the Vikings go up 10-0 five minutes into the second quarter. And it was one of seven games this year where I'm thinking all right maybe it'll just be an easy day and they'll and I think I said that before but like it just didn't happen because they didn't score the rest of the second quarter they didn't score the entire third quarter they find themselves down three going to the fourth and then they wake up and they score 17 in the fourth and they win the game and and Kirk Cousins moved the ball well throughout pretty much the whole game but there were just a few lulls in there. They punted five times.

And this might sound maybe contradictory after I earlier in this podcast was like running the ball, it doesn't really matter in the playoffs, but to some extent it does. And there's no reason why the Vikings shouldn't be able to run the ball on this Giants team. If you look at the numbers, they are 32nd in run defense DVOA. They are 31st in yards per carry at like 5.2. They are just all the rushing stats, EPA per play, total yards per game. They are near the bottom. They have been abysmal against the run. And last time the Vikings came out and Dalvin Cook had an 18 yard run on his first play and then just didn't really do much the rest of the year. Ended up with 64 yards, 14 carries. They just didn't throw the ball that much.

And that's the case all year. I mean, their third highest pass rate in the league. They just don't, they just drop back with Kirk Cousins a ton because they recognize how inefficient their running game has been. Whether that's Cook having lost a step, whether that's, I mean, which I don't think is the complete explanation because Alexander Madison has not been efficient at all either. I know some people really seem to not be Dalvin Cook fans recently. They're like, well, play Madison more. His numbers this year aren't good

either. I think there's some scheme stuff. I think there's some blocking execution stuff where the running game just hasn't gotten going. But if there were ever a week, it is this week because that can really help you. The Giants have not been good at defending the run. And if you can run the ball, I mean, it takes a physical, it takes a psychological toll on defenses, but it also can start to get linebackers creeping down and set up some things for TJ Hawkinson, Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborne, which clearly they didn't need last time. And you don't need to run the ball well to have a good passing game.

We know that. But it can help. And I think the Giants, if you look at natural adjustments, they're not going to want Justin Jefferson to kill them. They're not going to want TJ Hawkinson to have a huge day again. So maybe some of this stuff swings back to KJ Osborne, who's come along late in the season. Maybe Adam Thielen, who had one catch for six yards in that last game. He had fewer yards than Johnny Munt.

Like, will he be more involved? I don't know. We'll see. But I think it would really help the Vikings be more multidimensional and help Kevin O'Connell as a play caller and staying on schedule and all that. If they can run the ball effectively and maybe even hit some explosives, which they have not had many of. There's really no reason why they can't. When you look at the Giants and I mentioned that, like on paper, there's nothing that suggests they're good. They were fifth worst in defensive EPA this year. Expected points added. That's much worse than actually the Vikings.

So, I mean, on paper, they are, I guess, about a touchdown worse over the season than the Vikings. The Vikings are actually 10th in defensive EPA. The interceptions are probably a huge deal down red zone takeaways. Right. And so the Giants have pressured the quarterback the seventh most. so that's the one thing that we keep coming back to but if the vikings cannot move the ball on this offense or on this defense i mean that's that they just should be able to i mean by by all the metrics they should be able to but in the last game they got up 10 to nothing and that was again one where we were like okay like this may be not an easy day but

like a decided win and i think they threw on third and short and fourth and short turned over on downs giant score a touchdown they're back in the game it's little decisions like that where you sort of forget that the running game exists and i agree with you it hasn't looked good for anybody um delvin cook uh is one of the worst and if not the worst in rushing yards over expectation in total not just like per play but in total among yeah players with at least 120 carries or something right not not great not great um and i don't think you can blame that on scheme but i also don't think that madison has like so much more burst or anything um you know maybe maybe they should have tried to tie chandler a little more in the last game i don't know they're not all of a sudden gonna free ty chandler in the playoff

free ty chandler no that was i'm just i'm being sarcastic but uh you know there's little situations like that with kevin o'connell where you're kind of of sort of screaming at the top of the hill, like just slam it down their throat, man, you can do this. I believe in you. And, and I don't know that he believes in the running game enough himself to not sort of keep going back and back and back to the passing game. And that leaves the door open for only Udo whiffs on a block and cave on Thibodeau gets a strip sack or something. And that's, to me, that's just what the game has to come down to almost because the Vikings have advantages so much their offense versus the Giants defense that, that if they don't win, it's because something like that happened. It's because all of a sudden they

turn the ball over and they've been like prone to do that this year. I mean, Kirk Cousins, career high in interceptionsins what career high in interceptions a career high in sacks like that's the thing that sort of is going to keep everybody up at night going into this game is that possibility of just those negative plays the more you put on his plate we saw this in 2018 the more you put on his plate the higher end the results but also the lower end potential results as well. And I think that that makes this game in a way a little bit hard to predict because it sort of rests on that kind of thing. Yeah. And it, you don't want to, it's not fair to call Kirk Cousins a game

manager. I think, I think that's a label that some people have applied to him. I think this year, especially that has not been the case. He's gone on, he's won football games, and he has been on his back. But if you're Kevin O'Connell, you would like Kirk Cousins to be on the spectrum of game manager to insane Josh Allen type player. You'd like him to be closer to that game manager type of player, not as a knock to him, but just as if that's the case, that means you are making things relatively simple on him. And maybe he's making some big time throws to Jefferson and Hawkinson, and that's part of it. But if that's the case, he's probably got open receivers on his first or second read, and you're running the ball effectively. And he's just kind of

distributing like Kirk Cousins, he's called himself like a point guard before. You have all those five eligibles. And Justin Jefferson is going to be the first read a lot of times but you just go into whoever's open and it's relatively simple and and things like that and that lowers the spectacularness that is needed but it also lowers kind of the risk and that's why I think nothing groundbreaking here the first quarter this game is going to be so important because if the Vikings like they did last time come out and they scored in the first quarter TJ Hawkinson touchdown catch and they get lead, that maybe allows you to start running the ball more and making things easier and not letting them just kind of come after you with that blitz. If you fall behind and it starts to be, all right, Kirk, comeback time, go win this for us,

and he's done it this year. He's very clearly done it this year. It just, that opens yourself up for more of those kind of hard-to-control plays where he's dropping back and Dexter Lawrence maybe gets past Chris Reid or Ed Ingram and sacks him. Or maybe he doesn't and he throws his hand up and he tips the ball. And the Giants, who I have just learned, were tied for last in the league with six interceptions this year. Maybe they get another one.

Maybe they're due for an interception. I don't want to necessarily put that out there. But that just opens yourself up for more of those type of things. And I think even maybe more concerning than the interior stuff is Ole Udo, if he has to start, that is such an unknown because we just have not seen him play right tackle very much in this league. And theoretically, that should go better than him playing left guard, which we saw for a full season.

But who knows? Maybe it'll be Blake Brand brandel though and maybe maybe gary bradbury will be out there we have thursday when we're better about that we have no idea i don't know if i feel better about i don't i i don't know that i would bet on either one playing it's it's hard for me to say that confidently because bradbury the back thing is so tricky when like west phillips said it when you're an offensive lineman every play you're straining against these especially in the interior like these huge Dexter Lawrence Leonard Williams type guys that puts a lot of stress on your back so that needs to be really okay for you to feel confident putting him in the game with Brando like O'Connell kind of threw me for a loop because he said in my eyes he's like 100% ready to go but you you

rarely ever see a team designate a guy to return and then like two or three days later activate him from ir like usually it's like a week later because it's a 21 day window sometimes it's three weeks later so that to me would feel like a quick turnaround for a guy with who had an mcl tear not that long ago in the detroit game I think Blake Brandel could could make a big difference Garrett Bradbury would be the bigger upgrade I think from Chris Reed because Ole Udo does have tackle traits yeah but I think the the play-to-play consistency and technique of Blake Brandel I would feel a lot more confident in I wouldn't feel confident in either although he's not Brian O'Neill either by any means so in comparison to brian

tackle earlier this year not right and gave up seven sacks in five games like really bad in the cowboys game and a couple others and you know look you're going against micah parsons but they're going against some elite rushers here i was just looking at kirk cousins on a week-to-week basis over the season and just like the roller coaster of Kirk Cousins has always existed. But this year it doesn't feel like that because he came through in so many big moments. So it feels like it's been a consistent week to week performance. But when you sort of pull back and look at the totality of all the plays and not just the like, Oh, final drive, they won. It was a great game. If you won and move on from that i mean

there's like five games below a 65 grade from pff which i know people get all you know worked up about quarterback grades from pff and they're not perfect and we've gone over it on the show how it's done what it actually says but i mean it's it's remarkable how his entire career is sort of marred with this issue though, because he is thought of, like you said, like a game manager. Everybody thinks that if you just, and coaches think this, you plug the game plan into his brain and he will do it. And if, you know, something isn't right, then it probably will go wrong, right?

He's not going to fix it for you. He's just going to fix it for you. He's just going to execute it. But at the same time, like if you were just looking at the performances by him this year, you would have thought this was like Matthew Stafford. This is sort of a typical Matthew Stafford season. In fact, I wonder if Matthew Stafford has ever had a season just like this, because I swear he has like in terms of, um, and I don't mean his super bowl season i just mean like his lot his regular lions or career season where he throws like 29 touchdowns 14 picks there's a lot yes that's like every year for matthew stafford it's like every year it was like he was 11 and 5 in 2014 and it was 22 touchdowns 12 picks five fourth quarter comebacks underwhelming quarterback rating underwhelming qbr

got him to the playoffs anyway and you know whose records kirk tied this year for game winning drives in fourth quarter comeback it was 2016 matthew stafford who had like eight of those i don't know what his numbers were that year but probably very similar similar yeah very similar he had a higher qbr but it was 24 touchdowns 10 10 picks. It's like the, the, because his skillset isn't like Stafford with the big arm, we kind of don't think of him as boom or bust. But I think that's again, like if we're doing the, what gives you nightmares the day before the game, I mean, that's got, and also Stafford took a ton of sacks,

which was one of my biggest criticisms of him. And that's been the case for cousins. I think that's what it really is, is that you can game plan it right. You can have everything like your way all set. And then something goes off and it's over from the very beginning, like you said. And I feel like if you've covered him enough and you've watched enough games of his from start to finish every play you kind of know early in a game like what this is going to be so it's sort of how does he show up how does he come out of the gate the first not just the first drive but like the first quarter first couple of drives what is this game going to be because i get more convinced as i look at more numbers that they just

have a big advantage here, offense versus defense. But do you believe that there's no chance that he comes out with one of those random games? Like, of course not, because you've just seen this so many times. How could you say that? He's thrown at least one interception in eight games this year. That's about half the games. Two, three interception games against the Eagles and Packers. A couple two-interception games. A couple games where he took seven sacks, the Colts and Cowboys. Like, yeah, you can't say with any certainty that there's not going to be some Kirk Cousins chaos involved. And I think even just that very first drive is going to be really important. I don't know if the Vikings would consider, if they win the toss, they'd probably defer because that's generally the smart thing to do.

But I'd almost be tempted, I think we've talked about this before, like just receive it and go score a touchdown because they've been so good on those opening scripts. And I think that even that first series will tell us a lot. So yeah, there is some definite volatility at play with Kirk Cousins. I think something I've given him credit for before,

and I still hold this opinion, is that both Kevin O'Connell and Kirk Cousins have been part of this kind of important transformation of this veteran player this year, where he is not as much of just the rigid robot. And there are things that are good about doing that and going through your reads methodically and taking the open guy, But he has given Justin Jefferson more chances downfield and trusted him in ways that I don't think old Kirk Cousins would have. And TJ Hawkins that we saw in the last Giants game when he Hawkins in second touchdown when Kirk kind of puts it up and that's a dangerous throw. And Hawkinson just goes and gets it and makes a great play. And so I think that there's a balance there where you want to be doing more of that,

but you still want to, to some extent, be sticking to who you are. And I think that balance has been kind of hard to find in a brand new offense this year. And it's been a real roller coaster. But when they've needed it most, they've gotten it. And Kirk Cousins has come through late in these games. And, I mean, if you think anything other than in this Vikings-Giants game, it's going to be like 27-27 with three minutes to go and one team has the ball and everyone's holding their breath,

then I don't know what to tell you because that just – I don't see how that's not going to happen with this Vikings season. Let's play a game before we wrap up. Let's do it. Of what if they win, what if they lose. Okay. Okay. with this Viking season. Let's play a game before we wrap up. Let's do it. What if they win? What if they lose? Okay.

Okay. Because, you know, I haven't wanted to talk about the offseason really at all outside of before last week because I didn't want to talk about the Bears roster. But what are the ramifications if they lose? And how will we feel about it in terms of their chances going forward if they win? Well, that's a good question. I think if they win and they win a close game like I think we are both picking them to do,

that's not going to suddenly make me think they're going to go to San Francisco and beat the 49ers. If you're a Vikings fan, Saturday afternoon, the first game of the week, you're hoping for a Geno Smith miracle, which I don't think is going to happen because the 49ers are so much better than the Seahawks. But it's Pete Carroll, and he's a really good coach, and they've got some talent on that team, and Gen's had a fun season that's what you're hoping for because I just don't really see this Vikings team going to San Francisco and winning that game but if they lose this week then it just creates an interesting conversation like was this season really a success and I think we talked about this last week too but like I think there there would be a strong argument that it was because you win 13 games and you establish this new culture and you got

really good vibes going for, you know, Kevin O'Connell's the guy. So that in and of itself is a positive development, but man, it would just, it would just give so much ammo to the people who are like, this team was never good all along. They were fluky. And, and there, there, there would be some validity behind that too. And you have a negative point differential and you the people who are like this team was never good all along they were fluky and and there there there would be some validity behind that too when you have a negative point differential and you lose at home to the giants in the playoffs and all of a sudden you're like i don't think the vikings are necessarily the nfc north favorites coming into next year i think it might be the lions yeah like i legitimately think it might be the lions especially if they get a quarterback but even

if they still have jared goff who played fine this year. So we'll, I mean, we'll talk about that in the future, but I don't know. Yeah, the Vikings are going to have a lot of decisions to make with some free agents and some expensive veterans. And as always, it'll be kind of the Kirk Cousins conversation. And so it'll be an interesting offseason. But yeah, if they lose this game, you don't go in and – you say, hey, they won the division. It was a really, really fun regular season. But how much closer did they get to having a Super Bowl ceiling? I don't know that they got all that much closer because it was kind of the same team from a performance standpoint.

They just won all the close games instead of losing them. And I think the O'Connell thing and the culture is real. But I don't know. Where do you stand on it? I mean, I think that it depends if they were to lose on how they lost. Yeah. Because were they to be on the wrong side of a 61-yard field goal by Graham Ganoe, one heck of a kicker, by the way, then I think that you would say, wow, it got him.

Like, it finally got him playing those close games. But I don't necessarily think you'd walk out of the stadium saying they were a fraud and it was never real. And it was just a bunch of bogus good luck and everything else, which, again, like we've never bought into that idea because they have way too many good players to just be a quote fraud i mean if this was like some backup quarterback and you know a ragtag group that got lucky okay but you know it's patrick peterson getting those interceptions like that's a thing he's done before and it's justin jefferson catching those touchdowns so it's again not random not completely lucky but at some point you won't win every one score game the rest of your life and we think think we think Wade or not Wade Phillips. Wes Phillips was talking about how when Wade Phillips won the Super Bowl in Denver with Gary Kubiak, that throughout that time, people kept saying like, oh, Denver can't keep winning with this bad offense and everything else. And all the way to the end, it was like, oh, well, they're just not going to have enough for Peyton Manning and even last year with the Rams they kind of lucked out against the Bucks then they kind of lucked out against the 49ers and then they kind of lucked out you know with the ball in their hands and a final drive and you know Aaron Donald makes a play you know

that kind of thing so it can it can happen where you keep making the big plays at the biggest times but it also can happen that it does not go your way and that you get upset. And we saw the Vikings make one big play against the Saints. And guess what that matchup was, right? Was that 3-6? I mean, I think it was. So, like, it happens sometimes. And we'll probably walk out and say it's crushing for them to lose when it was their big chance

but it was like a great game and sometimes that doesn't go your way if they play like they played against the packers who are not in the playoffs and not a good team so it's possible that they could if they throw three interceptions and just no show us bank stadium on national tv in front of everybody colts vibes no come back right colts vibes right like no comeback or at least saquon could get a first down um yeah that's gonna be a tough one to say that that any of this mattered i mean it's just the reality like is it fair not really but it's just gonna be a very hard statement to make that any of this mattered for the regular season. If you were just going to walk in and get killed anyway,

if they win, I don't think it matters how they win. It's you're still going to look at the next level. Like this is hard. This is, I mean, I was talking about defensive EPA. The 49ers are number one in defensive.

He shoots up quite a bit to the Niners Eagles. Right here from the right from the fifth worst shoots up quite a bit to the Niners Eagles right here from the right from the fifth worst defense in the Giants to the best defenses in the league that you're going to have to beat the rest of the way and you know offenses that put up better numbers than you teams that destroyed you in terms of point differential it's still going to be an underdog situation where they need a lot to go their way to win. So I don't think it will change anything, but if they were to lose it really, in my mind, depends on how. Yeah. And if they win, I think at that point, it's weird to say, even though they're 13 and four and like the three seed, and it would be a two, three matchup. Like, I think he'd still sort of feel

like they're just kind of, it's just kind of gravy after that you won the NFC North, you want a home playoff game. Obviously, they would really want to win, and people would be disappointed if they didn't. But the 49ers are so good that I would be excited to go to Levi's Stadium and eat their press box food. So good. In the divisional round in 2019, it was phenomenal. And I would go in with very low expectations in terms of the Vikings winning the game. But it's playoff football.

And I know Brock Purdy hasn't lost a game yet. And we're not trying to get ahead of ourselves here. But who knows what could happen there. So I think that's why this game really is so interesting. It means a lot in terms of how we're going to think about this season i completely agree if they get blown out by this giants team that just isn't that good it's it's going to be some hard conversations and then who am i to say that that's not a possibility when you look at what this vikings team is that they could just no show and put up an egg and i would not be all that shocked. I don't think it's going to happen

because I think they have too many good kind of veteran players and coaches and things like that. But if they fall down early, there's a situation where then you're trying too hard to get back into it and kind of some things go wrong. And maybe all of a sudden you're just not getting any bounces or any calls and it starts to kind of spiral and that would uh that'd be that'd be a bit ugly what's your uh lock dead i'm sure of this pick of the weekend for other games i'll give you mine well okay go ahead i think jacksonville's winning i think i think jacksonville at home has been in

the second half of the season a really good team and I don't really trust the Chargers. Going west coast to east coast, I just think Doug Peterson playoff experience. That's going to be my hot take. That's interesting because I was filling out my playoff picks, and I'm taking the Chargers. Okay. I'm riding with Justin. But it's a lock pick.

Do you not understand? I just locked it in. No, no, Justin. But it's a lock pick. No, but you're not understanding. I just locked it in. No, no, no. This is not my lock pick. But that's my pick. This is your lock pick. You can't unlock it. I'm disputing your lock pick.

I just locked it. I'm saying the Chargers are going to win. It's set. It's done. It's my lock pick, though. I mean, okay, my lock pick, and it would be way too easy to say, like, the Bills or 49ers because they're huge favorites. My lock pick is the Cowboys.

Okay. the bills or 49ers because they're huge favorites my lock pick is the cowboys i think the buccaneers are getting way too much tom brady based respect and playing at home they're not that good and i know that's bold because i don't know what happened to the cowboys when they played the commanders last week i saw the score of that game and i was like oh like they played their backups or what the game didn't matter no they played dak prescott Prescott. Yeah, the whole game. 14 for 40 with, like, three picks. I don't know what happened there. I'm going to assume that they bounce back because I think – and maybe I just have memories burned into my mind from watching the 40-3 game at US Bank Stadium. I think the Cowboys are really good.

I think they're a lot better than the Buccaneers. I think they're going to go into Tampa and win that game pretty easily. I don't think Tom Brady has it quite in him at this point to overcome that, that Micah Parsons and that defense. I got to tell you, we hit a home run with the timing of this Vikings game because we get Saturday's games. You'd sit on the couch,

just watch them. And then we get to see the whole first game and Skylar, Skylar Thompson against Skylar. Yeah. Right. Well, not that I really want to watch it, but, uh be doing our wrap up work while watching the other game. And then it's going to be like Anthony Brown of the Ravens playing like that's going to be a bad game.

So this game, this Vikings game better be good because those other ones probably won't be. And then Monday night could be good. Monday night could be really good. Yeah, I won't dispute your lock dead pick. I do think Dallas is quite good. But I will count out Tom Brady when that man is in the Hall of Fame wearing a gold jacket and promises that he will not have any more facial surgeries and come back. That is when I will count him out, when he finally looks like he's aged.

Because I got to tell you, his performance against Carolina is spooky. It was spooky. All of a sudden, he's throwing for 400 yards and looking like a god. It was like, uh-oh. That's not good. That's not good. I don't know. And I also don't trust Mike McCarthy.

Do you trust Mike McCarthy? I just don't. The guy ran the clock out on himself last year. I just can't do it. Do you trust Todd Bowles? Good point. That's an excellent counterpoint. But I also think Tom do it todd bowles good point that's an excellent counterpoint but i also think tom brady's the coach so yeah that's true uh anyway well good

stuff um it's been a super fun season if this is our last preview i hope not i have enjoyed the hardcore nature and uh the energetic conversations leading into every game with you will so thank you for all of your time and thank you all for listening and I agree it will be more fun if we could make that trip out to San Francisco and last time man the travel I went I

flew to Phoenix and then I was trying to save a radio station money and I don't know you end up in Sacramento yeah yeah yeah so that's I was getting to that so like yeah that uh because i was trying to save an am radio station money good thing i did because they fired all of us but anyway uh i flew to phoenix flew to sacramento with sam ekstrom drove from sacramento all the way down to santa clara this time i'll just fly into san jose it'll be fine yeah that sounds like a better plan.

It's been fun. It has. Playoffs. Playoffs. Football. We'll talk to you all later.