Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Star Tribune's Ben Goessling predicts who the Vikings will draft and how long Kirk Cousins will be the Vikings' QB

Episode Date: April 20, 2022

Matthew Coller and Star Tribune Vikings beat reporter Ben Goessling look into the future and talk about what type of draft pick would be a surprise for the Vikings, whether there's any case to take a quarterback, how long Kirk Cousins will be the quarterback and how Kevin O'Connell is in a win-win position after the way this offseason played out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. We continue Games Week here on the show with Ben Gessling from the Star Tribune to return to play a classic Purple Insider podcast game. We look into Mike Zimmer's crystal ball. Although it is no longer Mike Zimmer's, now it is ours. It belongs to us, the crystal ball now, Ben. What is up? He didn't pass that thing on to Kevin O'Connell? No, I don't think so.

He left it behind like a memento for us to be able to use any time. Obviously, now that we're in possession of it, we know that it did not get to Kevin O'Connell. I'm just a little surprised that it didn't, given how much good it did for him over the years. We also don't need it now because I think the new coach will just tell us what's going on with someone's injury. Yeah.

I mean, I think everything will be on the up and up from here on out. I see no reason to need it, but we'll keep it around just in case there's a point at which we have to look into it to divine something that's happening. Okay. The way that it works with the crystal ball game is basically I ask you to look into your crystal ball and we talk about things that are going to happen in the future. And usually I go right beforehand. So let's, let's talk about the immediate future and then we'll push our way out as it becomes foggier and foggier in the crystal ball. So let's talk about next week in the draft.'s what i want to know from you not just who they're

going to pick because everyone thinks they're going to pick derrick stingley right yep everyone uh eric smith from vikings.com was walking around asking all the reporters and everyone but me said derrick stingley jr i went with chris alave just was it really i mean i figured there would be at least one other corner was it all just just Stingley other than you? Trent McDuffie was one pick, I think. But still in the same family. Yeah. So look into the crystal ball, though, and tell me, like, oh, look, Ben, you're surprised.

You can't believe what you're seeing in the crystal ball. What would be a surprise at this point? So I'm looking into the crystal ball. And you're shocked. I'm shocked. I can't believe it. I'm seeing a quarterback picked at number 12 or perhaps number 16 if they are able to trade down and still find one there. I'm seeing Kweisi Adolfo Mensah coming to the podium saying, we like this guy.

We see value at the position. Something about how positional value helped us make this choice, and it's never a bad time to invest in the quarterback position. I see questions flowing shortly after Kweisi Adolfo-Mensa talks about the pick of what does this mean for Kirk Cousins. I see think pieces being offered. I see talk radio thanking the football gods for this gift that will get them through May and June and July. That's the wild scenario the crystal ball is making apparent for me at this moment.

So here's what I think. If they are to pick a quarterback, there's only two scenarios that I could think where that could really happen. One is if Malik Willis does not get picked and is there at 12 and they think that there's something really there with him specifically as the most high upside quarterback and the one that you could sit behind cousins for a year, potentially even two years if you wanted to for him to develop. But the one that I think is more realistic is actually the Teddy Bridgewater, like the trade back into the back end of the first.

Because think about where they were in 2014. There were some similarities there where the roster had a lot of holes, where almost anyone they would have picked at, was it ninth overall? Yeah, I think they were eight and they traded back to nine to get Anthony Parr. Wherever they would have picked at, was it ninth overall? Yeah, I think they were eight, and they traded back to nine to get Anthony Parr. Wherever they would have picked, whatever position. Yeah. Everyone would have gone like, oh, good pick. Yeah.

And then they decide to trade back in and take Teddy Bridgewater to be their future quarterback and then sit him for that entire first year. I think that's not unrealistic because of the caliber of quarterbacks are kind of similar to a Teddy Bridgewater, right? Like they're not these megastar physical freaks, but they all have something that is likable about them. Yeah, I think that's certainly defensible in part because as you do it, and this is the reason Rexick spielman did it in 2014

you get the fifth year option which is another year of cost control at a position where it's gotten increasingly expensive to try to feel the competent starter i mean we're at the point now where the cousins deal is kind of the going rate for a quarterback that has any kind of equity in the league so if you can find a guy at the end of the first round and sit in for a couple of years, you still have three where it's cheap. And I think it's certainly a defensible investment to make. The question about how they get back into the first round would be the one that I would wonder, just because they don't have a ton of draft capital to do it. But if you tried that approach, I think you certainly could say, hey, this makes some sense.

And we're going to take a swing at this and see how it works. So I want you to, because the crystal ball doesn't always show exact clarity. Yeah. But maybe sometimes it ranks things for possibilities. So inside of the crystal ball. It's a quirky crystal ball. know it's yeah it's i call it dynamic because it always changes all the time yeah uh but uh like where much like its previous owner where does that yeah fickle it's a fickle crystal ball where does it rank though

that the the quarterback scenario where they end up whether it's back into the first, second round, 12th overall pick, of all the scenarios, the possibilities for positions they come away with after night one, where does that rank for the crystal ball or you? I would not put it higher than fourth. I mean, I kind of led with that because it would be interesting. I think there's a possibility of that. But, I mean, I'd go like beyond corner. I'd say receiver is in play.

I would say edge rusher, you could still make a case for that. It's a draft with plenty of them, so you could say let's wait on that. I could see you probably not taking an interior offensive lineman night one unless you're – well, we've seen it before, but I don't think we're going to see it with this group. So I'd put it somewhere in that range where it's not at the top of the list, maybe not even in the top three. But I think if you talked yourself into something where you saw value and you said we can use this to bridge our way to the future and find a way to have this position not cost us as

much and we can build the rest of the roster around that, I think you could talk yourself into doing something like that. I think corner is the obvious. They still need somebody to play there. And if Derek Stingley is there, I think they'd like him. And I think that would be the guy. But if he's not, then maybe you think about, okay, do we trade back? Is there another way to go? What do we do at this point? That's going to be the interesting thing with this draft is that it's the same scouts, but we don't have a 15-year track record on how this front office operates like we did with Rick Spielman.

We couldn't look back and say, well, in 2008 he did this. So it is a little bit more fun to try to figure out what they're going to do because it's probably a little bit more variance as to how it could go and it became very predictable with spielman yeah there was some of that in the way that when they needed something yes we knew kind of who they'd have to be able to target at that spot so even with christian derisaw i think most of us were shouting out christianrissaw's name last year. And then they did a good job to trade down and get him, save for the Mac Jones part of that. But trading down and still landing a prospect who could come in and help them right away was a good pick.

But drafting for the desperate immediate need was something that just sort of became synonymous with every single year with Spielman. And with this, it's almost like that all the needs are kind of desperate, immediate needs and long-term needs. But I wonder what you think they could do differently aside from the quarterback position that would make us go, oh, okay, now I see where Kweisi and the new crew is different. Like now I see it because so far there hasn't been a lot of seeing it. Well, and that's the question is how much is the new front office being able to do what it wants and how much are they operating with a bit of a set of rules, a menu, so to speak, of, hey, we need this team to be competitive. So do what you want to get there,

but you have to be in position to compete for a playoff spot this year. I mean, that's kind of the great unknown because we don't hear from the Wilfs a lot. And when we do, it's not always somebody telling us exactly what they are going to plan to do, which is not uncommon among NFL owners, but we don't get a lot of that. So there is that question in terms of how much autonomy does Kweisi Adolfo Mensah have to operate this draft the way he wants. That said, if it is different, I think it will be the types

of players they won't take. I don't think you'd see them use pick 19 on a center. I don't think you'd see them use pick 19 on a center. I don't think you would see them probably take running backs as high as the Vikings have done in the past. I don't think you'd see them use pick 9 on a linebacker that's not going to be a pass rusher. I mean, that's going to be a different story now. It would be like using a pick 9 on a defensive end that you're not looking for more than six or seven sacks a year from something like that I don't expect you're going to see them do that I think if you believe they are going to look at this differently if you believe analytics such that we want to use that word is going to have a say in the process I think that's where you'll see it it won't be the guys that oh, we see something that nobody else does

and we're going to spend big at this position because it fits us so well. I think that would probably be where you'd see the change. And I do think that in general it is hard to separate yourself as a drafting team because there's only so many things you can do. And everybody misses picks. Everyone misses picks. Everyone's got the analytics now. Everyone knows how to take the combine numbers and compare them historically.

Right. Rick Spielman giving a full lecture on how they clone players. We're like, Rick, okay. I mean, everyone does this now. Like, there's websites, dude. Like, mockdraftable.com, the PFF draft guide. Like, they have all of this information right there of who these guys' physical profiles look like. They thought they were cloning Michael Irvin in 2016.

Yeah, and Daniil many, many a times with Daniil. I want to go, usually the crystal ball only goes forward, not back in time, but let's say that you had had your crystal ball available to you when Kweisi Adafl-Menza took over and you looked in it. not back in time, but let's say that you had had your crystal ball available to you when Kwesi Adafo Menza took over and you looked in it, would you have seen it going this way with this off season? Because now you had the crystal ball and not me, but I truly would not have.

And it is taking it being this much run it back. Yeah. I mean, it's just, it's taken me a while to kind of just sort through all of this. Yeah. And like the position they've put themselves in does not seem very favorable for this year or for the long term. And that's kind of hard to discuss because you want it to be interesting and you want to talk about, well, they could do this and they could do that.

And then they did the same. And Casey Adafo-Mentz has said kind of like the best thing was to do nothing. Like, was it? And I guess I wonder how much you thought at the beginning, because we haven't talked on the show about this, that it was going to go this way. Well, I think the fact that it did, I have to think, has something to do with the directive they got from up top. I mean, that thing Mark Wilf said about we expect to be super competitive, you know, you kind of figure at the time, okay, everybody says that. Everybody's saying we want to compete for a Super Bowl every year because nobody wants to come out to the fans and be like, guys, four wins max. I mean, that's what we're looking for.

Nobody's going to come out and say that. But if you look at the Wilfs' history, they have not been terribly interested in the long rebuilds the only time they've ever really done it is when they had to when the roster literally had collapsed along with the metrodome roof in 2010 and you had to go find young players but even after that a year or two into that they're going back and signing guys like Greg Jennings and and they're they're making moves to try to win right away. So they have not wanted the long rebuilds. I think the only scenario where you would have seen this happening is one where they are saying we have to do this.

I do know there was at least a brief discussion about what happens if we hit the detonate button and blow everything up, trade cousins, and then kind of go from there. I think that would have been the first of several moves to come out of that. But I think in the end, could we have seen it coming? I think the only way you do is if you figure this has to be somebody telling them we want to operate this way and do it how you want, but this is what we expect it to be.

Okay, so let's say it's status quo for the draft. Let's say they take you know corner yeah edge rusher whatever it might be someone who will play but will not change your fate yeah um you know we many times are told well this guy fills this immediate need and then like in christian derisaw's case plays half the season and he's okay like usually just that guy is not justin jefferson very often uh but how much do you think or does the crystal ball think i'm i'm trying to be intentionally obnoxious sure it's to be funny just don't email me but uh the um how much do you think it's different because every person that we've heard out here because we're inside tco performance center just having gone through

more press conferences where offensive players say oh yeah, yeah, we've been watching the Rams, folks, and here it comes. And I guess I wonder how much different you think or the Crystal Ball thinks things will be under Kevin O'Connell than they were Mike Zimmer. In terms of the offensive performance or the approach? I think just everything i mean how much of a different football team will they be than what they have been over the last four years when so much is similar yeah well let's uh let's consult the crystal ball here let's take a look inside it again i i'm seeing slight differences but i'm still seeing i'm seeing a third and eight and i'm seeing cousins back to pass and there is a check down to the running back and it's fourth and two and now they're deciding whether to go for it because they're right around midfield or they're deciding to punt but i don't see a ton of spread

everything out i i don't think it's going to look all that different i because well there's two things number one this is not like a drastic change in the offense there's going to look all that different because, well, there's two things. Number one, this is not like a drastic change in the offense. There's going to be some different terminology. There's going to be some different personnel probably, but this offense is a cousin of what they have been doing, pardon the pun. But they also have talked about we have heavier personnel. We want to use some of those things with this roster the way it's currently constructed and maybe the theory here is let's play this out for a year it's not that expensive to say let's explore the theory that the coaching was really what was holding us back

and before we just blow everything up and throw everybody out let's take one more year to make sure i can get down with that theory if that's where they're going. But I also think that as they're currently set up, it's not going to be that different because you don't sit there and look at a great third receiver there yet or some kind of gadget player that you can move all over the field. Maybe they get that guy. Maybe it is Chris Olave. That would change a lot of things. But I think the way they're currently set up up you're betting on Kevin O'Connell getting

through to Kirk Cousins in a way that Mike Zimmer could not and that flips the switch it's hard to sit here in April with a guy that's been in the league for 10 years and say look out there's a there's a corner that he's about to turn and you're never going to see anything like it I think that's hard to assume that that's going to happen until you see it. So right now, I would look in there and not see a ton of changes. Folks, Minnesota sports teams are in the playoffs. Yes, that's right. Playoffs. Minnesota sports teams is happening.

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Yeah. What could change your mind? Like what could we see before or at the very beginning of the season? Let's say that. How about through week four? Because anything that happens after that, who knows? But from training camp through the first quarter of the season, what could happen that would change your mind from saying, after that who knows but from training camp through the first quarter of the season what

could happen that would change your mind from saying i don't think it's going to be that different i think it would be first couple of weeks of the season you're seeing cousins make tough throws slinging into traffic saying and then coming out after the game saying hey you know justin jefferson if you give him a chance he's going to win a lot of those contested catches i just wanted to give him a chance to make a play. And we're talking to him at a podium about some of those types of throws. If he's doing that, if they're spreading things out more, if there are – I certainly think there will be fewer second and long runs

just because I don't know that there could be more in a logically defensible position in the NFL in 2022. But I think if you see Cousins come out and play the way that they clearly are banking on him playing, where he's playing more freely, he's playing with more confidence because he thinks this coach has his back as opposed to the last one, who quite certainly did not, that would probably change my mind. But again, it's how much of that is in him and how much of it is just not there where you're not going to have a new coach pull that out. And maybe that's maybe that's the theory. Maybe this is a little bit of a science experiment where you take the control and you don't want to change too many variables because you get a better result that way.

So maybe we're at the one variable we're changing here is the coach. And then you see if that works. And if not, then you blow the whole thing up. There's another thing to be said of what is different. Is 11 wins different? Yeah. I mean, I think it is because the last two years, they're playing meaningless football on the final game of the year, and they get two of their wins. So what do they got, 15 in the last two years? That matter.

Yeah, and two of them are yeah or no 15 total 13 13 in games that matter out of what 31 games or something 33 yeah so it's not very good no it's not right you know where you know where i might think of it is and this might be a weird thing to say but i've always believed that we can walk out of a training camp and totally understand where the season is going save for crazy injuries don't collapses everything else lawsuits involving your start running back i mean there's so many ways you could go to certain boats yeah um yeah vibes though like i really think that if they went into the early part of the season with completely different vibes as a team how much they were playing a team how much they were

playing together yeah how much they were playing for their coach i mean the last four years 2018 in camp all of us said this isn't going to work yeah and i remember all the national reporters coming in being like oh you guys got a super bowl squad here and we're like no you know sports illustrated had the big let's follow the vikings around as they rise with the new the new practice facility new quarterback they had to run let's follow the Vikings around as they rise with the new practice facility and new quarterback. They had to run that story in the last week of the season because they might not make the playoffs. Right, right.

And so I think that even early on, if you get a sense, because last year the vaccination stuff really got ugly fast. Yeah, it was a bad vibe. Right. And then think about 2019, their best season. By week four their receiver is saying there's truth to all rumors that he doesn't want to be here yep so i think i think that vibes actually do matter here yeah i would agree and i it certainly seems like the

vikings think that because all the stuff we've heard about culture and all we've heard about changing the atmosphere around here i think is in response to what they either knew was a problem or I think what ownership found out was a problem or at least found out the extent of how much it was a problem when they met with players on January 10th. I think when they sat down that day and heard directly from players about all of the things that players had gone through, it was like, oh boy, this was worse than we expected it was. So I think some of that talk is probably for the public, but some of that is also, I think, a message to players about, hey, this is going to be different. We hear you. We understand what needed to change. And there certainly seems to be

a bet that the vibe is something you can change and have it result in different results. 11 wins, yeah, I think that makes a difference. The question I think that creates that may be problematic is if you look at that and say, boy, we're one step away. Let's go all in and keep with what we have. And then maybe that's not sustainable. Maybe it's not the type of thing that's going to happen if the schedule is tougher, if you don't get the injury luck.

We've certainly seen that in the past. But if they get to 11 to 11 yeah that is a different thing than they've been in the last few years and especially in the nfc where things look fairly wide open and the tough part of this too is that kevin o'connell could nail all this stuff he was talking about his game management dude today and for the first time ever a coach stood in front of us that since i've been here and sounded like he understood how to manage a football game, like clock and stuff. I'm not saying he'll be great at it. I'm just saying he sounded like the headset stuff. And yeah, like let's plan ahead. So that's not just sheer chaos. 20 seconds before we have to call something. Yeah. Imagine,

but it might still go sideways. I don't know, but you mentioned the injuries, but also the age of a lot of the core players. It's just relevant. It becomes the minute you put a three in front of your age, it becomes very relevant. And so, you know, you could have guys who last year played very well who don't play as well this year. And you could do all these things right. You could get all the vibes right. You could play all the music. You could put up a basketball hoop and you could have everybody pulling in the same direction.

But you still end up with eight wins yeah because the things that went right that we didn't talk about as much last year don't go right again injuries was a big part of that that they actually didn't lose that much yeah in terms of injuries in comparison to a lot of other teams so you know i think that beat them by five games in the division right right the packers were way more injured david boctieri uh jair alexander those are major players smith so right zedaria smith those are three of their best players and uh you know the quarterback of course ultimately yeah determines that but i guess i that keeps coming to mind for me like if how will how will we judge them if we feel like they did a lot of the right things from a coaching perspective

with Kevin O'Connell but the results still kind of came out the same I think we have to look at it in a nuanced way and say for the long term this is actually better but you were put in a position with your roster where it couldn't actually be better well and I I wonder if that's ultimately the case that Kweisi Adolfo Mensah and Kevin O'Connell are planning to make, hoping to make is probably strong. But if they go eight and nine again, I would think the case you go to ownership then to make is, okay, we tried it. We have a lot of guys in their 30s. We can't continue to just have Rob Brzezinski go out and do cap gymnastics every March and try to move money around and change a few things on the roster and keep running it back with these same guys.

We have to do the hard reboot because we've continued to try this incremental stuff and it hasn't worked. So I do wonder if somewhere in the backs of their minds they wouldn't be terribly heartbroken if that happened just because you could say, okay, we humored the idea. We tried it. It didn't work. Now we're telling you this has to change because you believe in our culture. You believe in what we're doing. You seem thrilled with the hires you made made and that's how they've talked and those

things can change very quickly in the nfl but if that is still the premise that they're going in with is hey we did all the right things we've changed the culture we've got a good coaching staff we've got a more progressive way of managing player injuries all that kind of stuff and the results are still not there i would think the case they'd go in and try to make then is we've done everything we can do on the fringes of this now we have to get down to the the foundation of it and change it right and if it totally blows up then they get a high draft pick and a good quarterback yeah that changes things quickly too there is that part of it it's almost like from kevin o'connell's perspective he in a

way can't lose because if he wins a little bit more than Zimmer you're a genius yep if he wins the same then he did the right things but things probably went wrong with the roster and if it totally blows up I mean let's just say there's a quarterback injury or whatever yeah then you're drafting high and setting yourself up for the future it's just that fans are put in a position who want them to win this year to really hope that it was Mike Zimmer's fault and mostly Mike Zimmer's fault. Yes. Yeah, and not so much even Rick Spielman's fault because a lot of the people that they have, well, not completely. I mean, guys like Anthony Barr are not here, although that was probably Mike Zimmer putting his thumb on that scale quite a bit, too.

But there are some guys like that that are gone. But a lot of the things that you saw Rick Spielman do that didn't work haven't changed that much so uh yeah you are hoping pretty hard that it was mike zimmer's fault if you're hoping this team wins this year and i fans don't like to go through rebuilds even if ultimately it's the right thing even if ultimately getting a quarterback that's cheap and is 22 and is under your control for five years on a rookie contract is the best way to get to contender status fairly quickly. It's not fun to go through that. So I get that. But yes, I think if they get to that spot, it is not the worst thing in the world for Kevin O'Connell to say, well, hey, we tried it.

And now it's time for me to go get a quarterback that I can mold and have be my guy. Folks, just wanted to mention that you can get the Purple Insider draft guide next Monday by going to purpleinsider.com anytime. Click on any of the articles to go subscribe to our newsletter. The draft guide comes with one month subscription and you can get all of our written draft coverage. Go to purpleinsider.com. Check out all of our written work there. Sign up for either a full year at a reduced price or one month. You get the draft guide that has 50 players the Vikings could draft, special essays on this year's draft and what the Vikings can learn from the past and much, much more again, purple insider.com. Our draft guide comes free with one month subscription.

Go check it out today. And by the way, before I ask you the next crystal ball question, saw a little factoid today, uh, that the Vikings are spending the fifth most amount of cap space on the quarterback position of any team in the NFL, including more than the green Bay Packers for this next year. And that, I think that really crystallizes it. Like when we talk about the contract and all that stuff, it's not just,

ah, yeah, he's kind of highly paid. It's like, no, you literally are paying more money to your quarterback situation, even with a cheap backup than almost everyone else in the entire league for the way that you've structured things and that's just how much harder

it ends up being because of that which leads to my next question which is if you look inside your crystal ball uh how long is kirk cousins the quarterback of of the Vikings? I think – well, let me take a look at it here. We're through the 2022 season. He's had another statistically good year but not quite made the leap. They are looking to draft the next guy, and it's starting to kick around all sorts of questions about would he want to be the bridge for a year or would they move on from him with his consent because he has no trade clause i'm seeing a lot of i'm looking on there's a lot of tweets uh next march about possible trade

destinations for kirk cousins because they're looking to take a quarterback high in the draft and maybe there's a place for him to go that's that's not here I think if it goes that way I think you're looking at trying to make a move next year now some of that is in his hands as he talked about last week and if he plays well enough then maybe it's it's longer term I just don't think that if you are fully committed to him for the rest of his career as he talked about that you're putting void years in a deal like you're putting void years in a deal because you're expecting to be done with it and because you needed to structure his contract in a way that helped you cap wise this year that is really the thing with him that has made this so difficult i

mean it's worked brilliantly for him it's worked brilliantly for mike mccartney his agent they have done these short-term deals with all sorts of guaranteed money that you see a lot of quarterbacks do six years with half of it guaranteed, but that allows teams to move things around, and they have some leverage. They have some ability to massage the thing the way they want it. Cousins has said, no, I want two-year deals. I want three-year deals, but I want you to guarantee every dime of it. And twice he's gotten no trade clauses. If you match up the three deals he's had with the ones that one quarterback signs one time, he's come out financially better off.

For sure. Yeah. I mean, it's been a master stroke of how they've structured these things. But it does make it difficult for the Vikings because they don't have a lot of maneuverability with the way those contracts are laid out. One thing I wonder about for the idea of trading him next year isn't just that he agrees to it, which he might if you say there's no more money here, like there's money somewhere else. But this next draft class is being talked about as being really good.

Now, there's no guarantees there, but if there's six first-round quarterbacks or five first-round quarterbacks, is a QB needy team saying, no, I want to trade for a cousins. And if they're trading him, that means they didn't win this year. Yeah. So it's like, you didn't go to the NFC championship or the super bowl. So do we other franchise X want to do that? Yeah. There is always desperation, but that just makes you wonder, is that something that another team wants to do when there's supposedly going to be all these other quarterbacks available? Yeah, it is hard to paint him as the missing piece

when he has been cast as that here. If we are through five years and it hasn't worked, I think it's hard to make that case. So maybe in that case he is here for one more year and you let the kid that they draft sit. The other question there is if he's the starting quarterback they're probably not going to bottom out i mean they're probably going to be in that 15 16 probably picking between 15 and 23 22 something like that

so the use yeah the use and the use does not get you the quarterback at the top of the draft class which means you need to get draft capital to move up, and you don't have a lot of it at the moment. So I wonder if some of the things you'll see them do, if they make trades where they trade back in the draft and they end up acquiring picks in 2023, keep an eye on that because that could be setting up for we want maneuverability for a quarterback draft next year.

Okay, real quick and then i have quick trivia for you all right you know i prepared something yes um somebody asked in the friday mailbag the other day where you would put an over under for when the vikings win a super bowl and so i put it at i put it at 13 and a half years like within the next 13 and a half years would you bet the over under where would you set it and would you bet mine? Or which way would you bet mine? I would set it at – yeah, I think something in there is fair for the over-under. I don't think it's – I might set it a little –

it depends if they get the quarterback right. I mean, I would maybe set it a little sooner than that if they get the quarterback right. But, yeah, I mean, playing probability, they're probably not if they get the quarterback right but yeah i mean playing probability they're probably not gonna get the quarterback right or at least to the degree that wins you a super bowl so yeah i think that's probably a fair number would i bet the over or the under on that historically you have to historically you bet the over the reason i like the over is never the reason right the reason i like it though is never is a long time yeah but also

um because like once a decade they get a shot yep and so you're betting on i'm giving him like a decade and a half yeah to get maybe two shots in there and maybe they win one is the way that i look at it but i mean you're right if you get the quarterback situation correct or it was mike zimmer who was holding back back Kirk to some incredible extent. Yeah. I mean, it can happen before that. It's, I just think that it's, I tried to put it where the most pessimistic fans would be like, are you crazy? And the most optimistic fans would be like, are you crazy? But for different reasons. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a good place to set an over-under in general. You get action on both sides. Okay, so here's your trivia.

There have been 20 first overall quarterbacks taken since 1990. 20 first overall quarterbacks. Oh, boy. Two of the bottom six in winning percentage played for the Minnesota Vikings. They weren't drafted by the Minnesota Vikings, but they did play for them. Can you name the bottom six out of those 20 in win percentage? So first overall quarterback. First overall quarterback.

So not a first overall pick. First overall quarterback. No, first overall pick. Okay. Sorry. First overall pick quarterback. Okay. So, but not, doesn't have to be first overall pick in the draft.

Yeah. So put it this. No, it does. Okay. Okay. So drafted like Peyton Manning. Yes. Correct.

He's number one for best winning percentage, as you might guess. So I'll just give you the worst, which is Trevor Lawrence as of this time. Okay. Three and 14. Yep. So the next five in terms of worst winning percentages for guys who are the first overall pick and our quarterbacks. Okay.

Let's see here. Since 1990. Since 1990. Since 1990. Jeff George. Jeff George is correct, yes. That would be one that's played for the Vikings. He went 46 and 78. Okay.

I would assume David Carr. David Carr is right. 23 and 56. He has the second worst record. Tim Couch. Tim Couch is right on. He has the – so Jeff George had the – well, okay. So Lawrence has the worst as of right now.

Carr is third. George is fourth. Couch is fifth. So who is sixth? Played for the Vikings. Played for the Vikings. I'm missing somebody. That was the number one overall pick.

I would say you don't need to look deep back into your crystal ball for this one. I'm missing somebody. That was the number one overall pick. I would say you don't need to look deep back into your crystal ball for this one. Too far. You're trying too hard. I'm sure I am. It's not Donovan McNabb. He didn't go number one. He was like number two. People are screaming at you

because you're trying way too hard. What am I forgetting? Because you're trying to use your 90s brain or your early 2000s brain. I am. I totally am. Think much sooner. Think of like, I'm here. Number one overall pick. Why am I screwing this up?

I'm sorry to all of the listeners. I mean, Josh Freeman, that's too far back and he wasn't the number one overall pick yeah uh we once got yelled at by mike oh oh okay sam bradford yes sam bradford i forgot yes that that whole year was yeah yeah that was wild uh yes he was the number he was the guy that was like the last one to cash in before all the before the uh correct cba changes okay and you're missing one more widely considered the greatest bust in nfl draft history well ryan leaf but he wasn't the number one pick um okay second biggest bust second biggest biggest bust quarterback whoever went

number one let's see here threw a ball 90 yards from his knees or whatever yeah mel kuyper said that this guy absolutely can't miss it's gonna be one of the best players oh todd marinovich uh no no well he was a big bus too um more weighty more weighty um larger yeah yeah purple drank oh gosh um i'm so why you get jeff and Tim Couch, but you don't get Jamarcus Russell. Oh, of course. Yes, yes. 280 pounds. I was thinking of the Kentucky. You got me thinking fat guys.

You got me thinking of the Kentucky guy. Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah. But, yes, Jamarcus Russell. Lorenzen was the guy who was coming to mind for you. Yes. Peyton Manning has the best ever. And then what's funny is in terms of win percentage, Alex Smith and Jared Goff over the last 20 years are in the top five,

which is kind of funny. Yeah. I suppose they're all kind of like, you know, just over 500. There's probably a lot of, a lot of those types in there. Yeah.

A lot of, well, Eli Manning was like 20 games over 500 halfway through his career and then finished 500 because it was an atrocity. Yeah, with two ranks. Carson Palmer had the Bengals thing. Yeah. Anyway.

Well, Ben, great to get together again, as always. Thanks for stretching me on the trivia. It's always fun to go down memory lane with the crappy quarterbacks. I would say it's clear that you haven't really been working out in the offseason. Yeah. I put on a few pounds and trying to work it off this time of year. Okay, well, thanks for coming by as always, and this was really fun. And we will do it again in the offseason

and look more after the draft at some point into your crystal ball. I look forward to it. Football.