Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Star Tribune's Ben Goessling talks Flores-Tua controversy and Darnold projections

Episode Date: August 20, 2024

The Minnesota Star Tribune's Ben Goessling joins Matthew Coller to talk about Brian Flores being called out by Tua Tagovailoa, what Sam Darnold is going to do this year and where Kevin O'Connell stands Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

hey everybody welcome to another episode of purple insider matthew collar here and joining with Purple Insider Matthew Collar here. And joining me inside TCO Performance Center with his crystal ball is Ben Gessling. As always. Of the Minnesota Star Tribune. Congratulations on the relaunch. I've heard, by the way, that there is a deal. Do you want to promote your deal? Is there promo codes? I don't know that we have promo codes.

We probably do. I mean, I think we have cheaper subscriptions for the first few months. This is the worst sales I've ever seen. It's six months for a dollar a month. That was it. How do I know your promo better than you? I don't know.

I'm just here to report the news. This is how like dyed in the wool journalists we are. We don't even know the promos. So you should find this endearing. You should find itos so you should find this uh endearing you should find it um charming and you should subscribe because apparently it's only uh a dollar a month for six months well what a deal yes the idea is that you've been working so incredibly hard grinding on this dramatic football team yep that some of that attention to it now being a different named

newspaper that you work for we are having i think like a celebration of all of the relaunch stuff happening right now. But because I am grinding away at this football team, I'm not there. Then right here, doing this here podcast. Yes. So we do have to get into the crystal ball, which old school listeners of the show know that this goes all the way back to Mike Zimmer saying that he did not have a crystal ball. And I think it was in reference to Sam Bradford's knee at the time, which again shows you how long we've been doing this.

And then we ask you to make projections based on what you're seeing in the crystal ball. We need to talk about just two things first, though. And I can frame them in crystal ball-like fashion, but the big story of the day, which I didn't think would blow up like this is to a tug of Iowa calling Brian floor is a terrible person. Didn't expect that. No. My take on this Ben is that sometimes defensive coaches,

tell me if you have any experience regarding this. Sometimes defensive coaches don't always understand how to connect the right way and reach the quarterback yeah and i think for a young quarterback coming into the league with a coach whose management was putting a lot of pressure on him to tank to get this player at first and flores probably wanted to play the guy that gave him the best chance to win his ownership probably wanted to play the guy that gave him the best chance to win. His ownership probably wanted to play the guy that they tanked for that. It's more complicated than just terrible person. Yeah.

And congratulations to Tua. It's worked out really well for him. It's actually worked out really well for Brian Flores here. And we have heard none of the sort of terrible person. And I think defensive guys relate to defensive guys. Harrison Smith came back to work with this man. Sometimes things just don't work out. That's my take.

I think that's right. And I think, yes, we do have a little bit of experience with defensive guy from the, oh, Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick tree. And a quarterback not getting along particularly well or not understanding each other perhaps would be another way to say it. I do think it's interesting though, Flores, I remember talking to him last year before writing a profile on him at the beginning of the season. He did talk a little bit about having learned from Kevin O'Connell in terms of ways to connect with players in manners that he had not done before in his career. And I have to think that some of these things are related to that. I mean, obviously, he's a defensive coordinator.

He's not a head coach. He doesn't have to connect with the quarterback in the same way here. But I think that's what he was referring to, just kind of learning a little different approach to people from Kevin O'Connell than probably he had seen for Bill Belichick. Because the two, even though Kevin O'Connell played for Bill Belichick, the two have different approaches to managing their rosters. The poke with a sharp stick thing, and we have experience with that.

I mean, Flores had that happen. Was it Kenny Stills, the receiver that he was playing all the Jay-Z songs with? He used some of that, and we've seen that obviously with, with Belichick, we've seen it with Mike Zimmer. We've seen it with Bill Parcells. I mean, that's kind of that approach to managing players. Let me just challenge you and try to get your competitive side out and getting you to say, Hey, I'll prove you wrong.

And then you get the best out of them that way. That doesn't work with every player. And it seems like it did not with Tua. We'll see what Brian Flores says about it. But yeah, it is interesting to hear that in light of some of the things that he has said about learning a little different style of people management since he's been here.

Well, I think that that's true and that people can change their coaching styles throughout their career. Also, everyone from that Belichick tree tried to go to their first head coaching jobs and apply all of Belichick's way of doing things, and none of them actually had it work. Josh McDaniels had a tough time. We saw Matt Patricia and what a mess that became in Detroit.

Romero Cornell. Right. I mean, every single one of them, Charlie Wise, every single one of them all had to go sideways. And I think that when you have Tom Brady and when you are as proven as Bill Belichick was after winning even the first Super Bowl, it gives you so much does not always apply in the same way or connect with the players in the same way who were indoctrinated in that kind of thing, right from the very beginning. And also had Tom Brady as the one who was helping apply that to the rest of the team as a leader. And if you go somewhere else and you try to do that without Tom Brady with a young quarterback and remember Tom Brady grew up in an era where your coaches yelled at you.

Right. Crazy. That's it's a different time. Right. Exactly. That's how old Brady is. Yeah. So the way you're coaching Brady can't be the way you coach another guy.

And I also think there is a factor of the organization, how it was functioning at the time that would play into that. And maybe if Tua could take it back, terrible person, he would probably take it back. Cause I have not heard that at all about prime Flores here i think it's probably just a personality conflict and it may be a little bit generational that players from to his generation quarterbacks especially if you're an alabama guy came from a big program there's probably a lot of people who have put their arm around you and said you can do it buddy and look i'm all for more positive coaching i wish i had more growing up playing sports like these guys do now we saw work extremely well with jj mccarthy we saw o'connell connect extremely well with kirk cousins i think it's the right way to go about it i'm not making fun of it i just feel like brian floor is

where he came from it was a different approach to what Tua had probably ever had before. Yeah, I think that's right. And some of it is the idea that I don't see the world the way that you do. Ergo, you are a terrible person. I mean, that's, I think, a little bit of a big leap to make. It may just be that I don't see the world the way that you do. Therefore, we are different. We don't agree on these things. And that's going to be difficult to work with sometimes, but that's okay. And I think, you know, a lot of times what I try to remind myself doing this job is my normal as a kid growing up in the suburbs of Minneapolis looks a lot different than the normal or the, the childhood what the baseline was of the people that you cover and in the case of brian flores that's growing up in a rough neighborhood in

brooklyn trying to make sure you know how to get home so that you don't get in a fight or you know have somebody try to start something that you don't want to be part of knowing which streets to turn on and which trains to take and which trains to avoid and which stops to avoid and all that kind of stuff a lot of people did not grow up that way. And he's talked about that, that shaped who he is on a fundamental level because you weren't going to get out of there and be successful if you didn't have some of the toughness to push back on what you saw every day. So how that then transfers to coaching different types of people, I think is something he has had to learn in the NFL. But I think in general,

it's good to remember that people come from different contexts and sometimes those aren't going to match up. And that doesn't mean that like one is good and one is evil. It may just mean that they're different and they don't always click. Right. And there's an intensity naturally to Brian Flores that we even feel during our press conferences that you can imagine when the tension rises, all coaches,

even the most nice and polite when the tension rises, you definitely see a different side of them. And I think that goes for just all life in general. When you have things going on behind the scenes, maybe you do your job a little bit differently than you would in a rational world something that worked out though for both guys sort of I mean Brian Flores with the whole situation in Miami was not good but he's landed in a space where he really has ownership of the defense and we've seen complete buy-in from these guys and I use Harrison Smith as that litmus test as someone who could have easily retired, has a borderline hall of fame career, has many millions of contracts that he has,

you know, accumulated over the years. And by my sense of things has managed his money pretty shrewdly. So I'm guessing he is still sitting on a fairly large chunk of that cash. And he could do a lot of things. He could become a podcaster. In in fact he's welcome to join purple insider and a very healthy salary after uh he retires he would be if you got him going he oh man he would be terrific he could be the best podcaster i don't know if i don't know if he'd have the interest in it willing to do that but invited invited uh we'll stick with jeremiah searles probably is who i can afford right but anyhow the point is that guys have wanted to be here. Andrew Van Ginkle came here. He played for him during that same time. That just speaks to the experiential difference. Stefan Gilmore, here's a nice little, uh,

transition into Stefan Gilmore, because I have to get your take on the Viking signing him. I think that they signed him because it one, they know the cornerback position is pretty rough without him, but still maybe even up to their offer to make it happen. After what they saw the joint practices, they were extremely good defensively. This defense is healthy and it's talented and it might have to drive the bus here for this team. It might. And you need corners because I think the front seven's going to be better. I think I still have some questions on the defensive line, but the way they can mix

and match pieces with the pass rushers is better than what they had last year when it was Daniil Hunter and not a lot else, and sometimes not Daniil Hunter wrecking games in a way that the team probably would have liked to see him do. They are deeper there this year, and I think we'll be overall able to mix and match more

effectively than they could a year ago where you're not having to play everybody for 900 snaps over the course of the season. The catch we saw with that at the end of last year was people figured out you can test these corners. You don't have to throw underneath all the time. You can take shots downfield even if it's in a couple seconds because these corners haven't shown that they can cover. And that got them beat in a lot of games at the end of the season

that cost them a playoff spot. And you look at how they approach the offseason. They signed Shaq Griffin. They drafted Kyrie Jackson. They hoped for more from Makai Blackmon. I think they were excited about him internally. They have not been crazy about the corners that they had here from the previous regime. Obviously, Andrew Booth is already gone.

Caleb Evans is fighting for a spot, I think fighting for a starting spot by his own admission. So there have been a lot of attempts to change this group. And the thing I will say about the way this front office does things good bad or indifferent if they see an issue that they're concerned with they do not do the you know room burning around them everything is fine gif like we perhaps saw from the previous regime at times of well hey this guy's gonna make you just need to give him a little more time they haven't done that with this really in a lot of cases, whether it's at Donatello, whether it's,

Hey, we need a tight end. Let's go get TJ Hawkinson. Andrew Booth hasn't worked out. Let's let's move on. I mean, the way that they have addressed the cornerback position over the last few weeks tells you exactly how big of a concern they view it to be.

And this is probably the step that made the most sense and it's certainly the most significant but it's i think the sixth corner they've added since the beginning of training camp that's really crazy i don't remember any time we've ever seen anything like this at one position group with stefan gilmore after doing a little research on it one thing i found to be interesting is i'm sure you're familiar with the concept of survivorship bias yeah that yep players who actually play past the age of 30 whatever in the nfl usually perform pretty well because they're still around right that means someone who is evaluating them believes that they still belong here and if they have a history of performing pretty well in the past they usually keep going into their 30s now there is cliffs that players

fall off of but corners like Brent Grimes we saw it with Terrence Newman there's not too many to really reference but the guys who have gotten to this age have actually usually been okay outside of maybe Josh Norman fell off eventually as he stayed in the league but aside from that they've usually done okay I think Stephon Gilmore based on his last two years still has it yeah does he have the same id he had with defensive mvp of course not i don't even think he would say that uh but if you have good play from him we talked to shaq griffin today he was back out there that's notable shaq griffin him shaq griffin byron murphy a caleb evans is a backup i don't feel better fabian morrow i'm not sure if he's as a backup. I don't feel – Fabian Morrow, I'm not sure if he's making the team.

Yeah. I don't know between him and Dwight McClother, and I'm a little bit conflicted if they both make the team or one or the other. It doesn't seem as bad now with someone who has such a good track record as Stephon Gilmore. Well, and the other thing is you're not sitting there anymore saying, this guy hasn't played a full NFL season. Let's see if he can do it right when we're fighting for a playoff spot or when we are on national TV against Patrick

Mahomes in week five or something like that or Jalen Hurts in week two on a Thursday night I mean those are the ones that kind of stick out you're not doing that you're you're asking the question of what does Shaq Griffin have left probably. Byron Murphy, is he going to stay healthy? That's been a question about him in the past. What does Stephon Gilmore have left at 33? But you're not sitting here saying, can this guy fundamentally play the position in the NFL?

Does he understand what he needs to do to get away with playing corner in this league and i say get away with because sometimes it takes that because the rules are stacked against you the quarterbacks are better than ever the offenses are more wide open than ever it is a tough job so you do have i think kind of like with quarterbacks if you've made it to this point you've not cracked the code but you've at least shown enough to say I understand how this position works and what you have to do to be successful at it in the NFL are they going to be what they were at their peak I don't think so but they may have to approximate that at least to some degree and I think if you do and the pass rush is better, it's going to help because they may need it.

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a phone company wanting people to use their phones, less ironic. Let's find us again with us mode from us cellular, visit us cellular.com slash built for us to get started. I think the biggest thing last year for me was they just didn't make plays on the ball. Yes. The corners. We saw it from the safeties.

We saw it at times from the linebackers, but not so much the corners very often. And Caleb Evans really struggled with that. And I think he struggled with that during this training camp as well. He's in the right position. Can't make a play. Stephon Gilmore can make a play on the ball. He's still getting picks. He's still getting PBUs.

And if you could just do that, then Flores is going to at least put you in a position to make a handful of plays, take the ball away a little, which they are going to need on this defense. So why don't we start with the crystal ball there? All right. That's what people are waiting for. The crystal ball is back.

The video takes a little bit of the mystery out of it. It really does. Because then you can see that we, well, I won't even say it. If you're not watching a video, you'll have to find it. What do you mean? You can't see it on video? It's right here. Yeah.

Oh, yes. Don't you see it? Yes, I do. It's right here in my hands. Yes. I mean, the mystery in the sense of you think it's like 10 feet tall. Oh, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

That's what I meant. Because of how it shows up. Yes. Exactly. Right. Okay. Yes.'s what i meant because of how it shows up yes exactly right okay so clearly what i meant as i hold my crystal ball right here or really yours so you're the only one who can read it i want you to look into it and tell me how good this defense is going to be so

look into it peer closely where does this defense end up ranking at the end of the year well let's see i gotta look a little closer here. I took my glasses off because we were getting glare. So, yes, there we go. It looks like the first number is a 1. I think there's a second number. I don't think it's just 1 on its own, but it looks like the second number is like another 1, maybe an 11.

So, yeah, I think that's a reasonable projection from the crystal ball i mean that's kind of about where they were last year then maybe they'll end up being a little bit better than that but um yeah that's that's where it looks to be to me if they were playing in a different division i might say top 10 or better maybe even top five with the amount of talent that they have i think that the edge rushing group is terrific the safeties the linebackers the corners are now shored up to the point where i don't think it has to be a mess if they stay healthy yeah and you're going to play the 49ers cj stroud uh aaron ro, Jordan Love, and not in this order,

and Jared Goff right off the beginning of the season. And that's a very tough. And then a Thursday night against old buddy Sean McVay right after that. Right. I've been sort of mentioning the start on the show, but even the whole thing. Like if Will Levis becomes better, if Trevor Lawrence is good with Brian Thomas as his new rookie receiver there, and there's a lot of pressure in Jacksonsonville i mean this whole thing if the quarterback stay healthy could be a lot tougher

than it was at times last year and then we don't know what caleb williams is going to bring but they're talented enough to hang around in games i don't know if they're talented enough to get this team into the playoffs but that's for a prediction for later because another now it's going crazy. It's saying something else and it's saying something about Sam Darnold. And I can't as I look into my crystal ball, I can't quite tell if it's telling me that it is flashing Jeff George. Wait, is that him? Is that the wild arm? Jeff George throwing to Randy Moss in 99?

That's I think that's what it's trying to say, is that that's what Sam Darnold is going to be. Do you see Jeff George? Whoa, it's blinking. It's blinking. There's Gus Farad. Getting very angry. Yeah, Gus Farad showing up in 08 and taking them to the playoffs

and then them not using him and having Tavares Jackson lose. Tavares Jackson start the playoff game. Yeah, that's not what it's showing. It's just showing Gus. Is that that type of situation or do you not see that? I see a lot of the Jeff George premonitions from the crystal ball. The Jeff George premonitions can mean a lot of things in terms of you're riding that roller coaster with Jeff George where he's going to make great plays because he has a massive arm,

and this is also true of Sam Darnold, and sometimes he's going to say, I have a massive arm. Let's try it, and then it doesn't work. But yes, I think the Jeff George comparison is a good one, which, yeah, if that's the case, probably puts them on the edge of the playoffs. The question, I think, becomes, I mean, that was an era where getting away with 13 or 14 interceptions in a year was a little more sustainable. Yeah.

It doesn't seem like you can do that anymore. Right. If you have a quarterback that turns the ball over that much, you're going to get yourself in trouble. And my question is going to be, if in fact the crystal ball is correct and when is it not, does the Jeff George experience work for them? Because you mentioned it before on turnovers, this has not been a team that's very good at getting takeaways on its own.

In fact, I think they were 30th in the league last year in that particular statistic. So if you're playing that game that they didn't play very well and it got very frustrated with turning the ball over as much as they did last year. Can this work? But yes, the Jeff George smoke from the crystal ball is what I'm reading as well. Okay. Let me ask you a harder question regarding Sam Darnold, because I think there's really only one answer to Kenny do it. And the answer is maybe.

Yeah. Maybe you need the crystal ball to really tell you, but maybe. Are you going to judge the head coach slash QB guru on the success or failure of Sam Darnold? Let me throw this out to you. The other night, as comical as social media could be, I never laugh harder than overreactions to preseason games. Not that anybody did that the other day about a safety getting a sack when no one blocked him. But Josh Dobbs did some crazy stuff for San Francisco.

And I tweeted out, like, it's fun when it works. And all the responses were, if only KOC had done better with his offense. And look, I understand some of it. I wouldn't have had him throw 34 passes against the bears. That's a reasonable criticism, but I don't judge the head coach based off of a journeyman on his fifth or sixth team who just showed up here. That was never really supposed to work. Now this, this was someone that was handpicked by KOC.

This was someone that they paid a significant amount of money to come in here and outbid the Denver Broncos to be the quarterback this year. Their plan seemed to be for him to be the quarterback. And yet with his history, I think it makes it tough to hold his feet entirely to the fire. How do you balance trying to judge is he really the quarterback a whisperer yeah or not so much and it's just sam darnold like i don't i don't know where to stand with that yeah i mean it's it's tricky because you mentioned the broncos sean payton has gotten a lot

of credit for his work with quarterbacks over the years drew breeze being at the top of that list really just drew breeze really just that's what it yeah sean payton is not perfect in this regard quarterbacks over the years, Drew Brees being at the top of that list. Really just Drew Brees. Really just, that's what it, yeah. Sean Payton is not perfect in this regard. Sean Payton gets a lot of credit for that one player, which is the great thing when you get it right at quarterback, you can live off of that for 15 years. He was with the Giants, Kerry Collins,

but I think they took play calling away from him. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So it's neither here nor there. It's difficult to get a big sample size on these things because if you miss, you're out of a job. And if you hit on one, you're going to ride that player

for as long as you possibly can. So it is, I think, a difficult thing to get a premonition of completely. Do you judge O'Connell on Darnold? I don't think you do completely in the sense that the plan here was always, I think some of the benefit of Sam Darnold was he was fungible, that you could bring him in and if J.J. McCarthy was ready, there's no attachment to Sam Darnold such that the fan base is going to say, what are you doing? We want Sam Darnold to be the quarterback. I don't know that there would have been that with Kirk Cousins, but there might have been a little

more of that with Kirk Cousins just because he'd been here. People had come around him a little bit after the Netflix thing. He was playing well last year before he gets hurt. That's probably a little tougher thing to do. Sam Darnold is not somebody that anybody has any attachment to. So I think there was always the benefit of Sam Darnold was not just can they turn Sam Darnold into something. I don't think that was the only reason he was here. It was somebody that we can get him, we can get him on a one-year deal,

and if the rookie's ready, we can move on without any costs attached to it. So I don't know that I judge him completely on it because I don't think the plan, and he's not going to say this, but I don't think the plan was always turn Sam Darnold into, you know, the guy that kind of resurrects his career, Rich Gannon or something. He resurrects his career, and all of a sudden he's MVP-level quarterback, and we're going to keep this guy for the foreseeable future.

I think this is kind of a bridge in the truest sense of the word. And now the other half of the bridge is not there for this year. So you get in a different spot there. But I think it's more complex than just saying, well, if it doesn't work with Darnold, that means he can't do it. I think what he is hoping for, and even the way he kind of talked about J.J. McCarthy last week, I thought was notable in the sense that he's saying, we found our franchise quarterback. I think some of the subtext of that is, we have our franchise quarterback. Let's stick with this plan and all of the people that are contractually employed to see this plan out should get continued offers to stay here yes there was probably a little bit of that yes what you

mean is uh extensions which there's been a little bit of talk of around here the way i would view this i'm trying to think about a good way to to phrase it uh because if sam darnold's bridge crashes into the water yeah on fire and barrels down the river yeah that's that's not good no it's not good for how confident you're going to feel in kevin o'connell about the quarterback thing uh i think what we're probably going to be saying if Sam Darnold crashes and burns is that he puts too much on the quarterback. And it's too difficult as opposed to,

I go back to what Zach Taylor did with Jake Browning. I loved it. I thought it was incredible. He was running bootlegs and screens and everything. And people was like, whoa, look at this Jake Browning. The Vikings let go. And you're like, well, look at this Jake Browning, the Vikings let going like, man, that guy is playing

some kind of 2003 Gary Kubiak offense. It was beautiful. Well, great coaching. KOC didn't do that. And he said, well, no, actually my quarterbacks have to learn the whole system

because otherwise they can't do enough. So he wasn't going to pare it down. And Josh Dobbs couldn't handle it. That did happen. And if it happens again, that there's a bar for this. Yes.

If they go seven and 10 and Sam Darnold throws for 4,000 yards, 20 touchdowns, 16 picks, we're going to go like, okay, that actually was a better version of Sam Darnold and we carry on. But if he throws eight touchdowns, 12 picks and they lose,

and we're talking about benching him for Nick Mullins or whoever. Maybe they trade for Mac Jones or something. This could go barreling down into the ocean with the situation they're in. And the pressure will ramp up on Kevin O'Connell. And I have felt the tension from him. I know that there's a lot that's going on, but I just think the whole training camp, there has been a lot more of tightness from Kevin O'Connell in part because he knows that a lot of how people view him after this year

with no playoff wins so far does rest on those very thick shoulders of Sam Donald. Yeah, and there's a lot. And I think the criticism, if it goes that way, if the bridge crashes into the wall and starts on fire, that's a fair point to say, okay, what are we doing? Because he is, let's see here, 17-8, I believe, with Kirk Cousins as his starter.

Yep. Other than that, other than the guy that he kind of built the whole thing around, they were, let's see here, three and six last year. And then if you went, you know, say you went five games or something, then you're eight and 23 or eight, no, eight and 18, I guess it would be without him. I'm tracking your math there. I get what you're saying it's not without Kirk where are you at yeah it's not a record you would stand on and say I can I can do this with anybody that you throw in on on the spot it's not somebody that has been in this system for however many years it's not somebody that's played in the league for 12 years it's not somebody I've coached before I can it doesn't matter I can go do it with this person. If it happens again this year. Yes. I do think there's

that point that you would say there's, there's valid criticism of how much can you do this? I think his response would be, I wasn't planning to have to do this. Right. And you're going to see next year what JJ McCarthy does and then make your evaluations at that point because that's the actual plan the problem in the NFL is you don't always just get to say well you know I know this didn't go the way that we wanted to but just wait next year it will and then you're going to really see how good of a plan this is not everybody gets that chance there's a lot of things that happen Mike Zimmer did a PowerPoint presentation on it that things you don't want, things you didn't expect to happen, things you didn't plan for

that ultimately affect how you do. And that is part of managing all of this. Pro sports ain't fair. No, they're not. Life ain't fair in the NFL. I mean, look at Robert Sala last year. He built this great team phenomenal defense if aaron rogers was even the meh version of aaron rogers they're a real contender

and he pops his achilles the first night and he's playing zach wilson and who was the comical person was it tim boyle that they had thrown like yeah it was just aaron rogers old buddy from green bay is he is he a horrible coach I don't think so I think he's a pretty good coach but life ain't fair and there's a very clear bar for me of where I think the there's either heat up or heat off which is eight wins sure if you win eight games with this schedule with this circumstance with the things they've gone through in this training camp with McCarthy with Makai Blackman, with Kyrie Jackson beforehand, I would look at it and say, that's a pretty well done job.

If you beat the Vegas expectations, then I think you've done pretty well for yourself. If you come short of them, that's a bad season. And nobody survives a bad season. I don't mean fired. I just mean there are implications to a bad NFL season because you could sit there right now and go, Hey, you could draft a defensive tackle pretty high in 2025.

But if you get into a point where you are deep into the year and you're four and 10, it's a nightmare when that happens. So I think that there is a bar they have to reach to be able to say, hey, job well done, O'Connell. We don't really change our opinion on how good we feel about you going forward. And then the extension would come after that. Well, and the other thing is that if they win six games or something,

I think eight is a good bar for this reason. Not that this is terribly scientific, but it is telling. They would then have 10 losses in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2010, 2011, I believe, and coaches got fired as a result of that. Brad Childress got fired in the middle of 2010.

Leslie Frazier made it through 2012, but had Leslie Frazier not gone to the playoffs with Adrian Peterson dragging that team on his back, I don't think Leslie Frazier made it through 2012, but had Leslie Frazier not gone to the playoffs with Adrian Peterson dragging that team on his back, I don't think Leslie Frazier would have made it out of that season either. So I say that because this is an ownership group, and Kweisi talked about this and said they've never told me that there's this mandate that we have to be competitive. But when they talk, every time they talk,

they talk about we want to be in competition for the division title every year. This is not an ownership group that likes to tolerate a lot of losing. So if you ended up with another season like that, even if it's through a lot of situations that you can't control, I think that matters i also i mean i think back to mike zimmer he had a lot of seasons where he's kind of eight and eight eight and nine but never got to that 10 loss threshold and i i do think he was always kind of the back of his mind well we were never that far out of it and that was like a a point that he knew he could sell himself on a little bit with at least we're still in it and with regard to this team when you have the weapons they have on offense, I think Aaron Jones can still play.

I think he helps a lot. I think when you get Hawkinson back, that's a good offense in terms of weapons. It's better than what they've had in terms of balance. The offensive line, I still have issues with up the middle, but the tackles will be good and the defense should be better. There's not, I mean, even if you don't have your perfect quarterback, there's not a way that you come out of that with five wins and you can feel good about it because there's still enough talent. And I think there's enough ability from O'Connell to design an offense that should be able to produce, to call plays that should be able to be successful,

that you should be in it. I mean, you at least should be in the mix for something by December. And if you're not there, you do run that risk with an ownership group that may say, well, okay, are we signing up for another three, four years with this quarterback because we're really excited about him? Or are we saying these last two years weren't so good? we need to react differently and i don't know that that's firing but right it's not extending long term half measure the leslie frazier you get another year kind of thing whoa the crystal ball came back it was growing impatient uh the division is quite the conversation every time i go on somebody else's show, like,

Hey, did you know the division's pretty good? Yeah, I noticed that. But what I'm seeing in the crystal ball is that, okay, it's not the Vikings. It's not purple.

Something goes wrong for another team in the division. But I just, I can't tell which team it is. There's a team in the division where something is going wrong. It's not going according to plan, and the division is not as strong as it says. But who could that be? Who do you see in this crystal ball? Who could have something go wrong?

It looks green. Oh. It looks. Oh, really? I see people wearing blocks of foam on their heads. Is that cheese? It looks like it might be cheese, yes. It looks like maybe the defense is, again, not holding up. It's under the bargain.

Interesting. And I know there's a new coordinator. I know there's new people there. I know Xavier McKinney's there, and we're excited about that. But, yeah, I think that's what I'm seeing. It's a little foggy, but, yeah, it looks like it might be to the east of here by about 280 miles. So the only scenario I could see something go wrong for Detroit is obviously if Jared Goff gets it. Yes.

They are a beast of a team. Yeah, they're really good. They're deep, and they're talking about Jameson Williams there all of a sudden, and that's just getting better for them. Their defense is better now this year. That team, in the worst-case scenario, seems like a 10-win team to me. Yeah, I would agree. Unless Dan Campbell goes completely insane.

And has some like wild fourth down call that he's at a press conference saying that was dumb. I shouldn't have done that. Would never happen. Would never happen. No. But with Green Bay, there's the scenario where their defense doesn't show up. There's the scenario where they're running game with Josh Jacobs, who they spent a lot of money on for someone who has been. He's got a lot of tread on the tire.

A lot of wear on the tires. And then there's just the scenario where all those jump balls that Jordan love through. And I think he was terrific last year. I honestly think he'll be terrific again. They come down in the other team's hands. And that was part of the report on him last year, especially in the first half was that you could take the ball away from

Jordan love. And sometimes throughout NFL history, we've seen quarterbacks live and die. If they're not the Darnold and the Winston where they just are in the Mullins that are just going to turn it over, but they kind of oscillate because they take risks. That's like an Eli Manning type of green Bay before. Yeah.

Right. I mean, of course the Favre that it could be not as good as everyone thinks it's going to be for another step. My projection for green Bay is actually that they are exactly the same. good as everyone thinks it's going to be for another step. My projection for Green Bay is actually that they are exactly the same. I don't think it's going to get better, but I think that they'll be the same. I think they are more likely to go wrong than Detroit.

How good do you think Chicago will be? I think, boy, so much of this depends on Caleb Williams, I think. They were better last year, and I like the weapons they have a lot i mean i i think that receiver group and maybe it's just it's been so long since we've seen something that looks like that but i think the talent they have on that offense is better than what they've had in a long long time and they added pass rush last year to uh jlm johnson's really good um they they probably have the best corner in the division so i i i could see them being in the mix if caleb williams is up to the job yeah now that's a lot to ask from a rookie in year one it's a lot to ask from a rookie that's been in

the spotlight for a really long time and seems to kind of – the thing I wonder about with Caleb Williams is will he kind of ride the wave a little bit? Oh, sure, yeah. Yep. How will he handle all of that? And he's been in big markets. He's been in high-pressure situations in the past. So maybe he won't blink at that in Chicago. But first time doing that in the NFL when you're trying to command a locker room of people that are 8 to 10

years older than you, it is a little bit of a different scenario. If he's good, I think they could be a playoff team. I just don't know. He's talented as all get out. There's no question about that. It's just how much of that comes to play as a rookie.

I think if it does, I think that's a playoff team. If it doesn't, then you're kind of probably talking about them being where they been six or seven wins. I see a little bit of early Deshaun Watson getting sacked all the time for him. He's holding the ball and trying to make things right. And then he's going to have to learn for a while,

which may keep them out of the playoffs just because he turns the ball over and get sacked. He fumbled a lot in college. They're not really sending the same type of pass rushes at him in preseason right but the raw talent is absolutely freakish and that might get him by uh their disaster is only like a six win season as opposed to if green bay were to miss the playoffs that's a total wreck for them because of where their expectations are yep uh one more thing because i i know that you got uh things to write for the minnesota star tribune going statewide one dollar a month for six months that's right sign up at probably star tribune star tribune.com it'll take you six months will take you to the end of the football season. Digital media company now, not just the newspaper.

Whoa. The crystal ball is popping up, and it has a question that no one really cares that much about, but maybe you're interested in. So right in front of us on my laptop that may have been blocking the camera view this entire time, and I didn't realize it, is my 53, um, my 53 that I've started. All right. So I've just gotten started here.

Haven't finished the whole thing. Yep. And what I'm trying to determine that maybe the crystal ball can tell you is a surprise cut. Who are you seeing in the crystal ball? That could be a surprise cut. Hmm. Hmm.

Wait. Yeah. It looks. Hmm. Wait. It looks. Yeah. We've got to look over here. Hold you up there. Consult the crystal ball and not the roster. Rub it a little. Yep.

Oh, yeah. There it is. It looks like it's on the defensive side of the ball. Okay. I'm seeing, I think, a defensive back. Okay. I'm seeing, I think, a defensive back. Okay. If you say Louis Scene, then you're looking at it wrong. That's not a surprise.

No. Okay. That's not who I was looking at. After the other day, people are doing that thing they do. It looks like a corner. Oh. It might be a Caleb Evans. Oh, really? I don't think. It might be a Caleb Evans. Oh, really?

I don't think. That would be a surprise cut. I might be reading that wrong. It would be a big surprise. That would be a surprise. But if they ended up in a spot where they felt like they have the veteran corners that they want and they don't want to roll with a guy that is still kind of figuring things out, I don't think that's terribly

likely sorry with the apologies to the crystal ball there but that would uh that would that would be a surprise certainly i think uh i mean that 2022 draft is on the clock part of the fun yeah i i was thinking about maybe brian awesome that would be the other one? But he does play a lot of special teams for this team. My surprise one. I don't think Dalton Reisner is a surprise cut. Yeah, that's just not shocking at this point. So it's hard to land in a spot where everyone does say like, oh, yeah, that's possible. But it is a surprise.

Yeah. Lewis scene would be in that group where it's like not a surprise. It's a it's notable. It's newsworthy, but probably not a surprise it's a it's notable it's newsworthy but probably not a surprise at this point i was thinking a little bit along the same lines but a slightly different person which is fabian morrow yeah because they brought him in here but with no real obligation to keep him they could just evaluate him and say ah we wanted stefan gilmore we don't really need you as a backup i think it comes down to dw Dwight McClothern or Fabian Morrow.

They usually don't keep, they have to keep six in that instance. And Jay Ward might stay for special teams because Najee Thompson's hurt. That I think would be a bit of a surprise since that would be one of the all-timers. I think I spent 45 minutes on a podcast talking about them adding Fabian Morrow. That would be an all-timer too. We all made a big deal out of this signing, and then the guy just hits the road. I don't know if there's going to be a lot of shocks this year overall.

Is Jaron Hall on your radar as making the team? I don't think he has to. No, I don't think he has to either. I think they could just get him through to the practice squad. Because that would be the question, is do they feel like they can get him through on waivers? And the way he played Saturday may have helped him and not them so much in terms of putting things on film where people like hey this guy actually can play a little bit but

I don't know I mean I think the way he played on Sunday night last year in that do or die game against the Packers showed you enough where it's like he's got a ways to go yeah and I my guess is they will gamble on we can get him through to the practice squad. Now, I mean, guys like Kellen Mond got picked up. So the bet of how desperate is the rest of the league on quarterbacks is always a gamble. But, no, I don't think that would be a surprise because I think their hope would be let's not keep three quarterbacks, especially when all of the rules now allow you to put somebody in the practice squad and do the emergency quarterback thing with that player.

What do you think of my defensive tackles? I got Phillips, Tillery, Bullard, Lynch, Rodriguez, and Williams. No Jaqueline Roy? Do you think Jaqueline Roy? I would agree with those. I think Jaqueline Roy is at more risk than the names on that list. James Lynch would maybe be the other one that I would wonder about a little bit. But I think otherwise, yeah, I mean, I think Levi Drake Rodriguez has shown he can play. He's made a lot of plays in these preseason games and in practice, too. I think Jonah Williams is here. I think Jerry Tillery is here. I think Bullard, they like Bullard a lot. And obviously Harrison Phillips is kind of the top of that group. So Lynch would be the only other one I'd wonder about, but I think he probably makes it as well. I would tend to agree with that list as a whole.

Okay, let me ask one more question. All right. Who's drafting number one next year? Who's drafting number one? Is it the Raiders? I mean, I like Gardner Minshew. He's so much fun. He's the new Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that's a tough division yeah it is i i think it could be i was just talking with

a friend who's a big raiders fan the other day and i was like when was the last time you guys took a big swing at quarterback and he's like well i know the one they shouldn't have i mean jim marcus russell that's a long time ago it was a long time ago i think it was 07 so they're due for kind of that type of a reset and i don't trust their quarterbacks i don't trust their ability to get through that division um i think that's a a good bet i'm just trying to think panthers i think they'll be better better um what if because i was thinking nf South too, but they all play each other. Right. So they're going to beat up on each other enough to win like five games a piece.

Yeah, I guess I thought Baker could probably get you to five or six. New England makes a lot of sense here. Yeah. Even if they play Drake May, it's probably going to be a rough ride. Yeah, because their line can't protect him probably. And if Rodgers gets hurt again. That, yes. Maybe the Jets.

Yep, I could see that too. And I tend to think even if Rodgers gets hurt again. Yes. He'll do the Jets. Yep, I could see that too. And I tend to think even if Rodgers is healthy, I'm just not sure how that's going to work. I'm not sure that he's going to be able to put it back together and play in a way that meshes with everything else that they want to do. I mean, I think he's probably going to go around playing like, yeah, I'm Aaron Rodgers. It's like, yeah, you're probably not Aaron Rodgers in 2014.

Right. And if you do that, you might get yourself in some trouble. So I'm not very high on the Jets. Yeah, I think the other – Washington maybe? Depending if Jaden Daniels has a tough time. The Giants would be the other one I think about. No Saquon Barkley.

Daniel Jones still there. Yeah, I mean, I think those, a lot of the teams that were picking high last year are probably in that mix again. But yeah, I think the Raiders is a solid choice for that spot. The Patriots, I think, would be probably the other one that comes to mind because I just don't think that team has a ton of talent. I didn't do that. Sorry. That was just off the dome that wasn't even reading the

okay so uh we spent enough time with the crystal ball we know when it wants something we have and we all you can only bring it out every so often it starts to get angry yep it doesn't work as well uh it's got a usbc now um everything plugs in anyway that's better but i did the old converter thing anymore yeah right you plug it into yeah okay two different things usb anyway great stuff always fun great stuff if you're great at technology sign up for the minnesota star tribune and their coverage and uh we will we'll do this again yes we will have uh you know we'll be in the season and have some information to work with for our crystal ball and we'll do this again. We will have, you know, we'll be in the season and have some information to work with for our crystal ball and we'll go forward,

but always great to get together. My pleasure. Thanks for having me. Always fun. Football.