Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Star Tribune's Ben Goessling: Vikings are not trading JJ McCarthy

Episode Date: January 2, 2025

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Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, along with Star Tribune's Ben Gessling, which if you're a longtime listener to the show, you know what this means. This means that we have dug up the crystal ball and that Ben will look deep into the crystal ball, both short term and long term. Ben, let's start with one thing right away. First, we got to get the crystal balls. Whoa. Here it is.

Time honored crystal ball noise. It's it's it has been a while. So dust it off. Get it all ready to go. So you can look inside of it. Let's just let's just do something first you're much better at reading this crystal ball than me but i see very crystal clear that they are not trading jj mccarthy why don't we just start there i would right i would see the

same thing yes i don't think they're trading jj mccarthy i mean it's it's one of those talkers that i think you and i were talking about the other day. It'll get some mileage. Everybody will do it. But it'll be the same thing as last offseason where we said they're not training Justin Jefferson. And then it becomes, well, but what if this happened? And what if they did? It's not realistically going to happen. I think this is the same thing.

I don't think they are going to move a guy that they drafted, that they moved up to get, that Kevin O'Connell said is a franchise quarterback. It's not going to happen. Not if they drafted that they moved up to get that kevin o'connell said is a franchise quarterback i it's not going to happen not if there's any likelihood of that not when he's going to be 22 years old not after just one year of sam darnold not when they spent such a high draft pick on him and so much time and effort and also put in the sweat equity into this year of training him how to be a national football league quarterback having weekly meetings with kevin o'connell everything that they did through training camp to develop him with the footwork and the timing and all that stuff and they're just going

to say you know what see ya go to the jets go to a living hell where some team is going to give us a couple draft picks it's just not going to happen. But you're right that there will be a lot of headlines that you see, probably on the old YouTube or the ticker. Insider reporter says teams will call on J.J. McCarthy. Oh, they'll call. They'll call. That's fine.

People call about a lot of things. It does not mean that negotiations have gone from, hey, what would happen if you thought about this, to, yes, we're going to do that. Let's get terms drawn up and send it into the league. There's a long way between, hey, what would you think about this and anything actually happening? And a lot of those phone calls, what would you think about this, can be met with, no, we're not doing it. Okay, thanks, bye. They're over in five seconds right and i did see adam shafter say that uh jj mccarthy would be the top quarterback in this year's draft which means

all the less reason to give up on him if you're the team that has him i mean that's the thing with there's several examples of this throughout history where a team happens to have two good quarterbacks and as much as i love john madden what he said have two good quarterbacks. And as much as I love John Madden, what he said about having two quarterbacks, meaning you have none, is not always true. Sometimes you just have two quarterbacks that are really good. And for the Vikings, it's kind of reminiscent in some ways of Jordan Love in Green Bay,

where I'm sure that Jordan Love and his representation and his family and friends were all pretty annoyed at having to sit behind Aaron Rodgers. And now he's pretty happy that he sat behind Aaron Rodgers as he's turned into a franchise quarterback. And the Vikings, with another quarterback they believe in, it gives them leeway to have this go wrong. And the Vikings have had in their history, I don't need to tell you, they have had quarterbacks that they drafted not perform the way they expected or had their knees explode randomly during a practice. Both of those things happened twice in like five years. Right. Yeah. So there's the fact that Sam Darnold would have a great backup quarterback for next season. There's the fact that McCarthy is extremely

young and has a long time for his rookie contract. Things over years change so much in the NFL. This just gives you a great backdrop if something does go wrong or fallback option. And also there's the potential that Darnold just isn't this good again next year. And the roster does come apart and then they can turn to JJ McCarthy. And if Darnold is just Josh Allen, if he's just Lamar Jackson, he's just that good. Then eventually you can decide to trade JJ McCarthy. But why would you do it after one year? Oh, there's no clock that's making anybody make that decision after this year. They do have ways.

And I think we'll probably get into this with the help of the crystal ball they do have ways to keep sam darnold without making a six-year commitment or a five-year commitment it does not have to look like that at least immediately so i think they'll have ways to figure out how to have both of these guys here well just while we're on the subject because it is short and long term so we're going to get into vikings and lions as well but i just needed to get that off my chest for this week because i've seen so much of it and i think aren't they playing a huge game this week and yet a lot of the discussion still remains about the future of the quarterback position but if you whoa let's rub the crystal ball again and take another look at it and see what it says about sam darnold uh this one

i've got my own opinions on but it's a little more cloudy to me can you move along the clouds clear it up a bit and see exactly what type of contract sam darnold would have because i think after 14 wins yeah you can't just move on no so he's gonna's going to be here. No. Yeah, I see the same. I mean, it looks like I see Anthony Harris's name being looked up. I see, you know, like this history with Steve Hutchinson being involved in all of this. It looks like maybe a franchise tag is being typed by one of us in March. It would be one of those things that it would make some sense if they go that way. That's where I'm seeing it go because I don't know that you would go with a long-term deal at this point. I just don't think financially that

makes a ton of sense. And you could make the argument, and people will, that a franchise tag is not a great idea either. It does cost $40, $41 million for next season, but they have cap space. They're going to be probably north of 70 for next year. Does that mean you can go sign everybody you want on the free agent market? No, they have a lot of needs to fill. So I do think there are some of those things. And I will admit for those who are listening, everybody's going to say, well, wait, where did you think you were talking earlier in the year that they're going to move on to McCarthy? The way Darnold has played, I think has changed this conversation. I don't think you can just bat an eye at the way Sam

Darnold has played when you do have an option to keep him here for a year and make it so that it doesn't change your long-term plan all that much. Yes, that is a different way to go about it than maybe what we've talked about in the past. But I just think when you've got this level change your long-term plan all that much. Yes, that is a different way to go about it than maybe what we've talked about in the past, but I just think when you've got this level of quarterbacking, I don't think you can just let it walk out the door. They would get a comp, maybe, but if they sign a bunch of free agents

and then that comp gets canceled out by all of the guys that they sign, they may get nothing. So I don't think that the way he has played, they're going to just let him walk out the door for the possibility of maybe a third in a year from now and you could tag and trade but even if someone offers you two first round picks don't you feel that you're in a super bowl window right now since you're competing for the super bowl right now i think uh sometimes you don't

realize when those windows are going to pop open, but it's open. And when I look at this roster, it was built despite $70 million in dead cap. And also as the season has progressed, we've seen, I think a number of players that look promising for the future that we had no idea about even midway through the season. Dallas Turner is certainly one of them, but even some of the guys, they're going to get Mackay Blackman back. That's a rookie contract. Dwight McClothern is someone that they talk about all the time. Theo Jackson comes in the game and makes a play every single time. Like they have some of these players that are coming along. I think even though it's been a little bit of a rocky season for Jalen Naylor, that's another guy who has shown that

he could be a big part of this and step up in some big moments. So it's not like they would be going into the offseason saying, boy, we're going to have all these guys leaving and all these problems to solve. Not sure what's going to happen with Byron Murphy. Not sure what's going to happen with Cam Bynum. But I don't look at those guys as being the hinge of the entire defense. Like, oh, if they lost one of them, this whole thing comes apart. And also they could bring them back, run back mostly the same roster,

add a couple of players, and nothing changes on the offensive side. It shouldn't change the fact that you were in Super Bowl contention. It's hard to win 14 games. I mean, what? How many times did Peyton Manning win 14 games? Once?

Yeah, I think this is like the 37th time it's ever happened in NFL history the team has won 14 times so it doesn't happen a lot so that would be hard on your league yeah that would be hard to repeat and something I want to say about uh your point on how the future has changed by Sam Darnold's performance when they brought in Daniel Jones I think all of us read the tea leaves there and said, are they looking for next year's backup for JJ McCarthy? And, but after you throw for 377 yards on 43 passes and crush the Packers at home with everything on the line on national TV,

he's just been way too good. The bar has been set way too high to say, Hey McCarthy, go do that next year. I think if they had won 10 games, it would have been something that they'd be willing to do. Yeah, I think that's right.

I mean, it is interesting how much these things change because of a few games and a few plays probably, but he has done that. And I think a lot of this too is, you know, you see teams that make these quarterback transitions. He's not 35 years old.

I mean, he's, I think, 27. So there is a window here with him. And if he is that good, then, well, what happens with J.J. McCarthy? Then at that point, like you say, you trade him. This is different than what the Packers had because you're not talking about one guy at the beginning of his career and one guy at the end of it. But why wouldn't you keep your options available to you when this position has been so

hard to manage over the course of the nfl we see it every year with teams around the league we see it through history with a lot of these teams that they don't have a solution at this position if you feel like you have two guys in your building that are that good and it doesn't really cost you all that much to have another year to evaluate this you're not putting jj mccarthy under the gun you're not saying you have to come in and be the heir to a 14 win team or a 15 win team you have some time to let that play out i don't see why you wouldn't look at that pretty seriously and i was looking through a little NFL history here. Just how many quarterbacks have ever sort of emerged around this age, age 26, 27, and then turned out to be great? And the answer is actually a lot of them.

I mean, even Jim Kelly played in the USFL. Warren Moon is another one that developed over years before coming to the NFL. Steve Young's a great example of that. Kurt Warner did not start playing in the NFL until age 28 and ends up making the Hall of Fame. It is a position where we see this a lot. Mentally, guys have to come along, but also circumstances. Sometimes it's used against the player in the evaluation. But I guess my question is, how many guys are ever great without

great supporting cast what separates darnold for me for someone that you can buy into into the future potentially is the raw talent where you're not talking about someone who lucked into a 14 win season and probably won't be able to repeat it i remember his kingdom stuff and i remember us at the combine with mike zimmer where he laid it out for us after 2017 and said is an anomaly a pop-up season and it was this does not look that way for me with sam darnold no i mean you see a lot of the things that got him drafted third overall i mean the arm talent is there the mobility is better than i think anybody realized it was maybe we just hadn't looked at sam darnold enough to to see it, but that is all there.

I think his ability to command things at the line of scrimmage has improved and probably would improve more in another year in this system. It is so interesting with the quarterback position because a lot of the way this has changed now is when you have all of these rookies on five-year contracts, you do have to play them earlier, or there at least is financial pressure, contract pressure to play them earlier because you don't have as long of a window to evaluate them, coupled with the fact that the offseason is shorter. There's not as much development time. It does speed the whole process up and probably means it's more likely that you will have guys like Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith.

Kind of down the line this year. We've seen a lot of these guys from that quarterback class or around that time that finally hit it with their second team because they're a little bit older. They've seen a little bit more. Maybe they get themselves in a situation where the game just makes a little more sense to them. And then that talent they had is still there. They're still not 35 years old. It makes a lot of sense that this sometimes does take a while. It's just that the NFL's contract process now forces you into decisions earlier. So if a team misses, it doesn't have to be the end of the story on one of these guys.

And that's what we've seen with Sam Darnold here this year. Baker Mayfield is another really good example of even after last year, I think they got into the playoffs with nine wins and they had to decide, are we buying it in? Are we not buying in? And they did decide to go all in on Mayfield, signed him to a three-year contract where he has a low cap hit this year. And now they're in contention with everybody else in the NFL. If they win one more game, they are going to the playoffs and he's had as good of a year as Sam Darnold. He's got 39 touchdowns. He's driven their offense spectacularly well. And I think what it says is that also circumstances

and finding the right franchise and the right coaching. Liam Cohen is their offensive coordinator, does a tremendous job. Another Rams related guy that seems to that tree always understand how to manage these quarterbacks we can't say the same for the adam gaze tree or the matt rule tree so i i mean i kind of bought that explanation anyway because he had started to play well in 2022 once rule was gone but now when you see him play with this sort of confidence and the windows that he could throw into, I almost now feel like this is a quarterback built in a lab for Kevin O'Connell, like even more than some of the other

guys that we were talking about going into this draft because of the arm talent, the playmaking, the downfield type of concepts that he can execute with precision and accuracy that he's been able to throw with. I mean, get him another guard out there. And what can you do with that? And the receivers, the chemistry that he's built with Addison and Jefferson throughout the year. If you're Kevin O'Connell, you've got to be saying, wait, we were an expected points at it, a top five passing game this year. Where can we go with a full year of him understanding everything in this system? i think a lot of that is right i mean the downfield ability the mobility that he has to extensive plays a lot of that is matthew stafford like i mean there's a lot of matthew stafford in

terms of our talent and the ability to just make plays on the run that we saw kevin o'connell be part of a super bowl run with and and they're not as dynamic defensively as that. They don't have Aaron Donald. They don't have Jalen Ramsey in terms of those high-end level players. But the scheme is as good as anything that the Rams had done in the past. I mean, that Brandon Staley scheme was kind of the revolutionary part of the league at the time. Brian Flores has, I think, I'm sure there'll be some copycats that come from it, but

they have manufactured an elite level of defense from probably not quite the same level of talent. But when you look at the production on defense coupled with what they have on offense, a lot of that Rams formula, I think, is here. And if they are going to say, we can keep this guy at least for another year, maybe it's two, we'll see what happens. I think it makes a lot of sense. Well, just speaking of that, before we get to Vikings-Lions, playoff scenarios and so forth,

I think when we look at the Rams, there's also something to take away there, which is if you have one of the best coaches in the league and you have one of the most sound organizations in the league from top to bottom, you have one of the most sound organizations in the league from top to bottom you have a gm and a coach on the same page and you're smart and you do good things you can overcome some stuff that people maybe didn't think you could yeah and i think with the rams we all thought including quacey because he mentioned not going full rams

at one point but i think we all thought they've got one shot to win it and if they don't forget about it they'll never have a chance again i'd be pretty concerned about the rams right now making a surprise run in this playoffs they were able to rebuild it fairly quickly some of this stuff if you have the right quarterback along with the right coaching you can overcome those salary cap issues, which are the Vikings wouldn't have for several years, by the way, which I think is really important point is that in, when they got cousins in 2018, they pride that window open for two more seasons to compete for a Superbowl, which you could do around Sam Darnold if you need to be able to do that.

So I think it's always like, let's make this thing clear what we're talking about with how the quarterback's contract affects the roster. For three years, you can kind of do whatever you need to do in the NFL. Then it starts to become a problem. But if your organization isn't insane, you can work through that as Kweisi Adafomensa did

going from Kirk to the current situation. Yeah, I mean, a lot of with Kirk, too, it was that they paid the quarterback. They weren't on a long-term deal with him, so that does require some gymnastics. And they said, we want to keep all our defenders. I mean, they said, we're keeping Anthony Barr. We're keeping Eric Kendricks. We're paying off-ball linebackers. We're paying guys.

We're paying a running back. We're paying a tight end. I mean, all of those things happened because they wanted to do both of these things. They were effectively pursuing two strategies at the same time, and they weren't able to do that for the long term because that stuff does have a cost when all of the guaranteed money gets in there and the cap issues start to hit. And especially at those positions like running back, where you're going to see the value of a player depreciate more quickly than you would at a quarterback spot i think if you're doing it at quarterback it's an expensive investment but that's a spot where if you get that thing figured out you're not thinking about it in five years you

may be thinking about it in 10 and you know we don't know how that's going to work out with sam donald yet but the number that they would have to bring Sam Darnold back at, and let's call it $41 million. Right now, Kirk Cousins has a number on this cap of 28 and a half. Sam Darnold has a number of, it's five something, I think, with all of the void year stuff. And McCarthy's three, I'm trying to remember exactly what it is somebody could fact check me on that but you're talking another five million dollars or so maybe ten to keep Darnold and McCarthy here next year and you're going to have more cap space in general than you did because the cap's going to go up and there's less dead money around with all of the other players that you won't have to worry about anymore so that that, I think, is feasible from a cap perspective.

But how does this work out five years from now? We don't have an answer to that yet, but they don't have to have that answer right now. I think a lot of this stuff has changed, like we've said, because of what Sam Darnold has done. And you just have to look at it and say, is this a level of quarterback play that anybody wants to see leave the building? I don't know that they're going to look at what he's done and say, is this a level of quarterback play that anybody wants to see leave the building? I don't know that they're going to look at what he's done and say, we're okay with him going to

be somewhere else. Let me ask you one Sam Darnold question before we kind of preview this game. What's surprised you the most about his performance other than just, you know, like the whole, right? The whole everything about it. But is there something that you have observed? We've been here every day since OTAs and even way back in the spring, when we first see it, saw him throw some passes, we all kind of went, I don't know, man, that's a pretty good arm, but I don't think anybody could have expected this. No, I don't think so. And a lot of it is we saw the downfield arm strength in training camp we saw a lot of those things and the question was how is he going to be throwing with anticipation

how is he going to be on intermediate throws I think he's improved a lot as he's become more comfortable in this offense I mean throws like he makes the J.J. McCarthy or excuse me to T.J. Hawkinson wrong guy who's got a J and an initial in his name throw he makes to T. J. Hawkinson on Sunday for 28 yards where he fits it over a linebacker. A lot of these, maybe I'm thinking of McCarthy because these are the same throws they want to see McCarthy get better at. This, can you fit it in a tight spot with a guy underneath and a guy over the top and you have to hit a receiver in the middle of the coverage? Darnold has done that really well.

And in fact, that has become such a staple of their offense that you've heard Kevin O'Connell talk a lot about the dagger cuts where it's that dig route on the backside of Jefferson or Addison. That has become something they lean pretty heavily on. So they are trusting him to make tougher throws, to make balls where you have to throw it into a tight window. You have to throw it on the lines, but still put enough accuracy on it that a guy can catch it on the run. I think that component of his game has been impressive to me.

And then just, I think the command of the offense. We've seen the protection get, the understanding of how to set protection get better. I still go back to that moment in Seattle where headset goes out. He doesn't panic. He says, I've got the formation. We can get something called.

If the house burns down, I can just run for a first down. And then even just that ability to say, well, I'm here. Let me just walk over to Kevin O'Connell and get the next play call without technology that might, or might not be working. We'll just get it from one person to the other. And then you might go back and run the whole thing. So that level of, of composure and command, I think has been pretty impressive impressive certainly did not fit what you would have expected given all of the narratives that were around sam donald when he came in here right when he was coming out there was talk of that there was talk of hey you need a big drive in a game yeah this is your guy because that's what he did at usc but if you're not playing in big games because your team is terrible,

your offensive line is terrible, your receivers are terrible, your defenses weren't all that good, there wasn't too many opportunities for him to show it off. He did once against Mike Zimmer's defense in 2021, and we did see that. But the way that he's handled the noise, if you will, that's what they always call it, the constant discussion over his future and everything else. And I know for us reporters, we want quotes. We want players bearing their souls and their deepest feelings, but with Sam Darnold, his consistent way of approaching the media, the questions, the, the, the hype, the discussion, Oh, is he in the MVP race? Oh, is he falling off? like the the whole big

swings in narrative around him throughout the season after they lost a couple games and they play against jacksonville and the interceptions and all that and then he kind of disappears off the map but now he's back in the discussion unfazed the guy has been unfazed by anything any moment any situation any discussion anything going. And he just seems to be so much just all about ball that everybody has, I think, appreciated that in the locker room, in the organization, he has been undistracted by anything in any attempt, even some of the most ridiculous attempts actually out here that we've seen of someone running up to him and say, have you proven the doubters wrong? He doesn't, he's not going to talk about that. He's just completely shut all of that out and played football and it's been impressive. Yeah. It reminds me a little bit of, and I bring this

example up because this is somebody that had to deal with it in New York for a long time. But I always remember when I was covering baseball, the number of players you'd go into the Yankees clubhouse and the number of players who had kind of just developed this sort of monotone. They're able to kind of just take the questions and take all of the scrutiny and roll with it and, you know, kind of say something without saying anything. And obviously this is, you know, as reporters, we want stories. We want things to be interesting. We want people to be personable and revealing and candid and all of that. But sometimes there aren't great reasons to do it, especially because when you tell somebody something and it moves beyond the initial story or the initial podcast or the initial report and it gets sliced and diced in the world that we currently live in, it may not be the best idea for you to do it. So I've always, I remember Derek Jeter being like this a lot where he would,

he would stop and be composed and give answers to questions, but never would give you that much in a way that you said, okay, this guy really tipped his hand into everything he's thinking. I only bring that up because Sam Darnold kind of got put through the ringer in New York. He has seen it in that media bubble in a way that a lot of players don't. And coming here after you've been in New York, this is not the same. This market is very different than that. But I do think some of that training that he received there probably helps him manage a little bit of it a little more effectively and not get caught up in as many of the swings. I also think Kevin O'Connell has been in his ear talking about a lot of these things. I think the discussions of how to manage all of this, how to come back and reboot your career when there are going to be a lot of those questions about why are you different? Why were you so bad before as people kind of find ways to get at that question uh i think there is a discussion about how to do it and how to manage all of that in a way that doesn't become something that is a is a big distraction he's never made it a headline and the other thing he's never done

is he has never left anyone else in the organization locker room coaching staff feel like they got blamed for anything now there's not a lot to blame when you're 14 and 2 but still even when things have gone wrong it's a that's on me i can't take that sack i can't i got to get rid of the ball i can't throw that there and that's all he'll really have to say about those things so no one ever feels manipulated by his comments and things like that which we certainly saw in the past on a number of occasions. So I think all that's been great. Oh, we got the crystal ball has popped back up though. Oh, there it is.

I thought it was going to look at the game, but it's looking at something. I see Kevin O'Connell, a mansion, the Batmobile. I see a house in Cabo that he owns, not even rents. Wow. This is incredible. How do you get the Batmobile to Cabo? You could ship it there if you have enough money.

You're not driving the Batmobile. If you have enough money, you could do anything. Yep. The cartels built a tunnel underneath the wall or whatever for drug moving because they had enough money to do it. I think. So anyway, on that note, O'Connell's about to have more money than the cartels, right? Yeah, I think he is. I mean, I think the contract that you're referring to is coming.

I see the same thing in the crystal ball. Kevin O'Connell is his contract is up after 2025. The Wilfs did not do the extension before this season, I suppose in part because you don't know what the quarterback situation is going to look like. He has answered the questions about that. They are in position to win 15 games for the first time since 1998, which would, in other words, be the first time since the Wilfs bought this team. It would be the second time in franchise history to win that many games. And he's doing it with a team that has all the dead money that we talk about

and with a quarterback that they signed for $10 million. So it certainly has delivered on his investment and ownership loves him. The people in this building love him. I think he gets a big contract this offseason because if he doesn't, he's going into a contract year. His stock around the league is not it could not get much higher. He has an agent who represents a lot of the movers and shakers in the NFL and Trace Armstrong. I think he gets a deal. I think it's it's lucrative. I think it's longterm. And I think the organization kind of goes from there. Are we talking about like six years? Because that doesn't feel crazy to me. No, it doesn't.

He's not old. I mean, he'll be 40, I think, in May. I mean, some of it probably depends on how long of a deal he wants. I mean, with Mike Zimmer, when they first did this, they added two years to it, so got him back to four years left on the deal. So maybe it's something like that where they add three, but it also would not be crazy to say, let's go five years here or six years and get something longer term locked in. He may say, I want another swing at the market. I mean, he's certainly been around enough free agents that do that. Justin Jefferson's deal allows him to do that. Kirk Cousins certainly made a lot of money on some of those deals, but I think there'll be every intent to get something done, I would think, fairly quickly in the offseason. or something, right? Sean McVay, you are an organization that transcends all the roster moves and everything else. You are the person who's driving the success of that organization. And also, I think that as far as the dynamic between he and Kweisi Adafo-Mensa, maybe there were some times where they were figuring each other out, but this last off

season was such a massive success of Brian Flores and Kevin O'Connell making the list of the groceries and Casey going out with Rob Brzezinski and getting those groceries and bringing them in and making the most of them that there now has to be trust between these two in the way that they've worked together. And I just think the overall organizational competence, this is a hard thing to reach where you seem to have everybody pulling in the same direction. There doesn't seem to be a lot of ego conflicts and personality issues and different things like that because people are just on the same page. And that goes from the players and their leadership to the coach, to the training staff, which we know is important to the ownership, to the general manager. And the fact that the ownership could set out a way that they're going to approach this competitive rebuild.

And then these two together could execute it. Like, this is something you'll probably have to do again in the future someday. And you know that they can do it together. Yeah. I would just want this leadership for however long you can lock it up for. And I think if you're O'Connell, where are you going to find better than this facilities ownership? Ownership has to be huge.

Yeah. We've learned this. Woody Johnson's having his teenagers run the team off of Madden and bloggers. And like, what are you doing? Whereas the Wilfs deserve as much credit, I think as Casey, as Kevin O'Connell for their patient approach to this thing and for moving on from a proven quarterback

and trusting their coach. Well, I've gone back a lot, and Quacey has talked about this. I think when we talked to him after the Justin Jefferson deal got done, he talked about the Wilfs and said, they make us prove our arguments. They make us kind of show why we are thinking of doing certain things. But if we can do that and if they feel good about it, they support what we're going to do. It's not this, well, you wanted to do this, but we have this different way that we see it. So we're going to do it our way because we're

the ones writing the checks. They understand, I think, that they are not the football experts. They've learned probably quite a bit in 20 years of owning this team, but they kind of let the people that they hire to be the experts be the experts. And they say, what can we do to support things? What can we do from a facilities perspective from spending cash over the cap, which is a really big deal? I mean, the ability to keep a competent team over the last few years when they've had all of these cap issues does not happen if you don't have owners saying we're okay writing checks for signing bonuses so a lot of those things i think if you're a head coach you'd look at and say i've got it pretty good and even if there's a few more dollars out there somewhere you're probably not chasing that when it would mean giving up the amount of stability and the amount of competence you have here oh oh okay the crystal ball is tired of us talking about the future in any way and it wants

to talk about the football game i'm seeing i'm seeing a kicker lineup from that big lion logo and he's kicking it for the game winner to make it 41-38 or something crazy. I can't tell which kicker is taking the kick. Who is that? He kind of looks young. He kind of looks like a kid you might see in a Walmart ad. I think it's Will Reichard. I think it looks like Will Reichard is lining up for the game-winning kick,

and it looks like it's going in. I mean, Vikings kicker made a big kick to send them to a first-round bye. That's what I'm seeing in there. What are you seeing? I think it's him. He looks a little shaggy. He doesn't look like he should be an NFL player. So, yeah, I think that's him.

I've got them winning 38-35, something like that. I think that Flores' defense can make one more stop than Detroit and exactly one more, and that's it. Yep. And that if Darnold has the ball at the end of the game, he's going to win. Yeah, I would agree. I think this game is close. I think I'm picking something along those lines.

I think I had 35-31, but same idea. That doesn't come down to a field goal, whereas 38-35 does. But the crystal ball thinks it's down to a field goal, so we will go with the crystal ball because it never has steered us wrong before. Yeah, I think this game comes down to which team is healthier. I think that's the Vikings. Certainly they have more depth on defense left than the Lions do. They might get Alex Anzalone back for Sunday,

and I think that makes a difference. But when it's Alan McNeil gone, when it's Aiden Hutchinson gone, when they've lost some guys in the secondary, I think the Vikings are coming into this game in better shape, in better condition to take advantage of it. And the Vikings also, the last time they played, did not have Blake Cashman, did not have TJ Hawkinson. They have both of those guys this time. And if that game at all swung on the Lions being the healthier team and the advantages that come from that, I think the Vikings have that same advantage this time. So I think the Vikings win in a very similar fashion to the way the Lions did it last time. Biggest injury, I think, is Carlton Davis because he was signed to stop Justin Jefferson. They could say whatever they want. That's true.

He's not there, and Justin Jefferson might get 180 yards in this game. I mean, you could just – Justin Jefferson has some big days against the Lions. And I see no reason that he wouldn't again, based on who is playing in this game and how Aaron Glenn plays his defense. They like man coverage. Yep. The Vikings really like man coverage. Justin Jefferson has no problem when you line up in man coverage.

And there's some data to back that up that he is so far and away the best at beating man coverage. And we know that's right in front of our faces, but also backed up by the numbers. So I think we agree on this. But here is the question of the week for every guest. The difference in percentage chance the Vikings go to the Super Bowl if they win versus if they lose. I would put it at if they win the game, I'm going to say 60% because I think them winning games at U.S. Bank Stadium is a different deal than them playing on the road. They've been good on the road, but I think us bank stadium is a massive advantage in the playoffs. And especially that thing of you only have to win two,

you have to win two games at home and you're going to the super bowl. If they don't win this game, I'd put it at, I don't know, 30, maybe 35. I just think it's a lot harder. I mean,

cause now you're doing that thing of you are coming off of this, which is effectively going to be a playoff game in terms of its intensity, and then you're going either to Tampa or Atlanta, I suppose, probably Tampa. Or Los Angeles. Or Los Angeles. Haven't they clinched the three seed at this point? I think there is a difference. The playoff machine tells me that if Seattle wins, I believe that they could face the Vikings.

Yeah, and that's not a matchup the Vikings would be terribly excited about, I don't think. That, again, was no cashman. That's a Thursday night after they played the Lions. Maybe it's different the second time, but I don't think. If we're talking coaching quarterback, McVay Stafford is not probably the one you want to face coming into it. So then you have to do that.

Then you're either in Philly or Detroit probably in the second round. And then you're probably playing the other one for the NFC Championship. So I think it changes it quite a bit if they don't win this game. It doesn't make it impossible, but if you're in Philly and not getting to play Philly at u.s bank stadium well you know we've seen that before that's a tough place to play the vikings have not had a lot of success there so if they're able to keep themselves out of philadelphia i think that makes a big difference one more what it's showing me honolulu blue again like for what oh i think

it means they're gonna play again yeah lions and vikings in the playoffs again this is round two of three we we think the crystal ball are you seeing that i'm only i'm only seeing a color and a lot of smoke and honolulu blue is So, yeah, it does appear to be a shade of blue somewhere in or around the Hawaiian Islands. So, yeah. Is that going to happen? I think it very well could. I mean, I think it's very possible, whether it's the Packers or the Lions, that there's going to be a round three. It's probably more likely with the Lions.

I kind of think the Packers are the seventh seed. They're going to go to Philly and get beat and that's going to be it but yes I think it's very very possible that these two teams will see each other a third time I think they're two of the best three in the NFC so in all likelihood if they are meeting in the NFC championship game it means the other one beat Philadelphia I think to get there so yes I think's very, very possible that the crystal ball is right here that we are going to see these teams meet a third time. And that'd be fun. It's these games have been pretty entertaining when these two teams get

together every single time. Ben Gessling, Minnesota star Tribune newsletter, man. Now, yep. Make sure you sign up for his newsletter. That's right.

And all the time. And I really appreciate it on a busy week here with a lot of hype. Always take the time. And we will check in. I'm sure again, very soon and look into that crystal ball. So thank you. Sounds good.

Put it back in its case, but hide it, make sure nobody else gets to see it and they can know the future. So anyway, well, thank you again. And we'll talk to you all very soon. Sounds good.

Thanks. Football.