Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Steve Palazzolo reacts to Matthew's JJ McCarthy bold prediction

Episode Date: June 26, 2025

Matthew Coller is joined by Steve Palazzolo of the Check the Mic podcast to react to Coller's bold JJ McCarthy prediction.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hey everybody. Welcome to another episode of purple insider Matthew collar here and joining the show from, I would say the podcast that I spend the most minutes with during the NFL season and off season. Check the mic, Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson. We have 50% of that combo here with Steve Palazzolo returning to the show for his 100th appearance ever on a show of mine. Steve, how you been, man? I've been enjoying the show and I really like the off-season time where you guys kind of kick your feet back, you make some predictions, you look at old drafts, you have some fun. I like this time of year because I don't feel stressed, but we're talking about football.

Yeah, I like this time of year too. Look, I love football as much as the next person, but I'm not there. I'm not counting down to week one. I kind of want to enjoy my summer and I like the ramp up with training camp and preseason. And so I just need a few more weeks off, but yeah, I enjoy the off season. I get into, you know, decompress after the draft in the whole season. So you guys have one of my favorite podcast bits of any that I've ever listened to, which is where listeners send you guys bets, and you will accept them, where you talk about,

hey, this year, the Falcons fan will send you, Michael Pennings is throwing for 5,000 yards at 50 touchdowns. And then you go through at the end of the season and figure out which bets were right. So the similar version here is that before every season, I do 50 predictions. So I wanna go through all 50 with it.

No, I'm just kidding. I wanna go through some of my favorite predictions from 2025 and I want you to tell me, am I being ridiculous? And I've called them bold. Some I think are more bold than others. I want you to tell me, am I being ridiculous? Is that a called them bold. Some I think are more bold than others. I want you to tell me, am I being ridiculous? Is that a good prediction?

Do you agree with it? And I think the best place to begin with this is with the Vikings punter and his net. No, in the J.J. McCarthy. Okay, obviously, J.J. McCarthy. We could get to Ryan Wright's net punting eventually. But here's my bold prediction for J.J. McCarthy. It's very specific, but I get to Ryan Wright's net punting eventually, but here's my bold prediction for JJ McCarthy. It's very specific, but I want to run through it. 3875 yards, 26 touchdowns, nine picks, and ranked 11th by Pro Football

Focus, your former employer. Steve, how do you fit? You want me to run through it again? If you didn't catch that. No, I got it. You got it. Okay. How do we feel about that prediction for JJ McCarthy 2025?

I think that's bold. I think man, I mean quarterback uncertainty man, that is very difficult. And then you're going to weigh the situation which I think is outstanding. Obviously the investment in the offensive line. We just we just pre-recorded a show on the best units in football and I you know Vikings past catchers. I've been raving about there in my top 10 with Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison and TJ Hawkinson leading the way. So the supporting cast helps quite a bit.

I think the number 11 PFF ranking is probably a little aggressive. And maybe the interception total is a little aggressive. Everything else seems fine. I mean, pushing 4,000 yards, is that even a massive accomplishment in a 17 game schedule these days? You're assuming health.

So not really, 26 touchdowns, that's not wild at all. Today's NFL and that supporting cast. So I'll give you the yes on the yards in the touchdowns. I think we'll go a little bit higher on the picks and a worse PFF ranking probably closer to 15 to 20 will say would be my optimistic but cautiously optimistic JJ McCarthy projection. Okay, the reason I went with that. Let me actually I've got PFF here. Let me fiddle around a little bit.

So Sam Darnold last year was eighth. The 11th best quarterback in the league last year was Kyler Murray. Brock Purdy was 10th. Then Jared Goff 11th. CJ Stroud 13th. Aaron Rodgers 14th. Now last year, I think it was a tough year on some quarterbacks, but CJ Stroud, not that great of a year. Aaron Rogers, not that great of a year. Brock Purdy was kind of up and down a little bit. If he lands in that range, see, part of it to me was earlier this off season, I went through all the playoff teams and where the quarterbacks ranked by quarterback rating, PFF grade, ESPNs QBR, and just trying

to figure out like how good you have to be to be an average playoff quarterback. And I landed on 11th is where you have to be. And I think if JJ McCarthy can be the 11th best PFF grade and maybe you could go into a little bit with your experience of like what what that would mean, like what that would say about him to be the 11th best quarterback by PFF. But I thought if they're going to win the division, if there were going to be a serious Super Bowl contender going into the playoffs, because I think they have the coaching and the rest of the roster to do that. I don't think that McCarthy can be the 21st best quarterback in the league.

I think that he has to be somewhere in that ballpark of top half of the league. So I think what's interesting is I always I always viewed PFF grade as a really good way of isolating the quarterback's play outside of the production and I think every stat is trying to do that and I've always believed PFF does it the best. I think in this system where Kevin O'Connell has done a really nice job of not only putting players in

position to succeed but also getting good even from a PFF perspective good quality quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. But when you add in the supporting cast here, if you get 10 or 11 QB play, I mean, that has potential to be the best team in the league. That's the significance of it. I honestly think that if JJ McCarthy ranks, say, 20th

in PFF, he could still put up huge numbers because of the supporting cast, because of what O'Connell has done, because of honestly, or the Vikings can have success because I think the defense is going to be good again with their additions too and what they've done on both lines. So yeah, it's an interesting dynamic there because when you said the players that were ranked 10th, 11th 12th in that range CJ Stroud one of the better rookie seasons of the last decade two years ago Aaron Rogers

You know Hall of Famer at the tail end of his career Brock Purdy Just signed his big contract. Those guys are good Those are good quarterbacks and they've all ranked higher right to kind of your point was like they purdy was higher the year before Stroud was higher the year before. Rogers, of course, has been near the top. And they all kind of had down years. So JJ, he's just such an unknown, right? It's just you've got whatever you thought of him coming out

of college. And I'm old and wise now, Matt. My QB draft takes are held very, very lightly. I know not to plant my flag too early on any quarterback. I know not to. I'm too wise to do such things in a shouty show world. And I didn't really have a strong opinion on JJ either way anyway. But even if I did, I wouldn't say, well, I loved him.

He's going to be top five. Or I hated him. Therefore, he's going to be bottom five. We'll see. Therefore he's going to be, you know, bottom five. We'll see. I mean, there's still a lot of wait and see. So that's why I would say I'm more cautious and unwilling to say put him in the top half of the league without seeing some NFL evidence.

As we try to project, the thing I kind of go back and forth on is the uncertainty, which I know, having only seen him at practice, it does translate to actual games, but not flawlessly what they're doing in training camp practices and one preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders second team, which he was very, very good, but still nonetheless. And I think you make a fair point about the interceptions as younger quarterbacks are more prone, I think, to making those mistakes. And we see that sometimes at training camp.

But what I can't stop thinking about is when Nick Mullins played quarterback for KOC and how he averaged like 400 yards game, and then think about where we were with Sam Darnold last year. I think I played the same game with your partner, Sam Monson. And I said, do you think that Arnold could rank like 14 under on everything right? No way. Yeah, no way. He's never come close to that. He could never do that ever before. So there is a KOC effect. There is a Justin Jefferson effect. And I think what this boils down to is just how much you believe a supporting cast can

elevate a quarterback because I look at AFC and NFC a little bit differently with this, where the AFC has all these quarterbacks where you go. OK, well, they'll be in the playoffs because they exist. Allen, LeBar Jackson, Mahomes. I think the NFC has been so dominated. It's kind of the trend of the last decade, maybe or almost there. Brady wins a Super Bowl. Drew Brees, you have to go back a little while, but it's mostly been in recent years, San Francisco, Philadelphia,

who's got the best team around their quarterback. And none of us would even say that Garoppolo, Purdy, or even Jalen Hertz are anywhere near that conversation with other quarterbacks. So I think there's a baseline of, if you can be this tall to get on the ride, or if you can be this good to play in KOCOC offense, you can win a lot of football games and even put up a lot of numbers.

The other question I wanted to have surrounding this is how much you think they will shift their offense around an inexperienced quarterback because I tend to think not much. I think they're still good there. If they were Aaron it out with Sam Darnold, they're going to air it out with JJ McCarthy, but maybe should, should they, because KOC has loved that pass button in the past. I don't think they'll change much,

but then that goes back to the draft question of, okay, what is JJ McCarthy? Was he a passenger on Michigan's national championship team? You know, they, the famous game where they didn't throw the ball at all in the second half against Penn State because they didn't need to all of the draft picks where they didn't throw the ball at all in the second half against Penn State because they didn't need to. All of the draft picks that they had, a deep offensive line backfield in defense, right?

So same question, right? J.J. McCarthy was only asked to throw the ball 25 times. Can he be a 40 plus attempt per game type of guy at the NFL level? We'll have that same question again. I think we are closing in at the point though, where the elite quarterbacks, like it's always fun in football to try to decouple the quarterback from the coach. And the more evidence you get of like, Tom Brady being separated from Bill Belichick, it's like, well, the elite quarterback is such a massive driver. You could even say my

homes with Andy Reid, Andy Reid was perennial, you know, Super Bowl contender, but never Super Bowl actual participant and winner until he got my homes. And so the elite quarterback makes that massive difference. But the way you described the NFC, it is really difficult to go back historically and find a coach who has been QB-proof, so to speak, or always elevated the quarterback. And I think KOC is closing in on that world, right?

Where you could say, so Kyle Shanahan, I think is the clear example, for 15 years in the league, he's putting Matt Schaub on all-time lists from a statistical standpoint, RG3 historic rookie season. Matt Ryan goes from good to one of the best seasons of all time as an MVP. Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Purdy, like he's just every single guy. He's gotten the most out of them.

KOC is now sitting on Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins, 500 quarterback in his career. Darnold, you know, 350 quarterback in his career, whatever it is, becoming massive winners. So yeah, I mean, it is, you're one more data point away from saying KOC is in this. We trust him regardless of what happens. And what a weapon that is for Quasi in the front office to say, not that you knew this three years ago, but you're kind of banking on it. If he could do that with the rookie quarterback, okay, now we can load up on the defensive line like we have the last couple years, now we can overspend at guard and center and load up on the offensive line because we can trust KOC with the rookie quarterback. So look, I think he's been incredibly impressive, like closing in on top five coach in the league status

because as great as like a Dan Campbell is, when you have an offense multiplier at head coach, there's three of those guys in the league at any given time. I mean, Andy Reid's some back and forth on Andy Reid, but he's one of them. Mahomes took it to a new level. Shanahan, I don't even know if you could say Sean Payton at this point, because we haven't seen him get

to the levels of where he was with Drew Brees. So there's not many. There's not many of those. Matt LaFleur's dabbled with it. I think got the most out of Rogers, maybe developed Jordan Love. There's not many and I think KOC is closing in on being one of those one of those guys. So, you know, I might poo poo your projections here early in the season

because I'm just conservative during the off season, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if JJ McCarthy exceeded it because that's the trends that I think KOC has put forth these last couple of years. Well, I also had to go at least slightly enough bold to have a conversation about it. Of course. If I went with just the average for a rookie or younger quarterback,

although that's a little bit of a pet peeve of mine this off season is the shouty shows saying, well, he's basically a rookie. Not really, if you understand what rookies have to go through to even learn a playbook, as opposed to somebody who was there for the entire season, he just didn't run scout team, which is useful, but all the other information he was able to gather

to see how you lead a team the way that Sam Darnold did. All right, let me give you another bold one. A lot of discussion this off season about Dallas Turner. You know, they spent the first round pick on him and moved up in the draft to get him. Last year, he was a role player on this defense, but this year they did extend Andrew Van Ginkle and Jonathan Grenard's under contract long-term,

but they let Patrick Jones go, they let Jahad Ward go ward go their rotational rushers. He is in line to take over that position. I'm going with more than 7.5 sacks for young Dallas Turner taking the big leap from year one to year two and just add a little defense to my argument here. If you look historically, there are so many guys in the league who came in raw, especially if they were a little

undersized for the position who did not get a ton of sacks right away. Even like Khalil Mack had four sacks his first year and I was looking at Melvin Ingram's career the other day and how maybe his first couple years and then it clicked and all of a sudden he was a freak.

I think the same thing happens this year for Dallas Turner. Is that bold to you or is that kind of obvious to you? No, I think that's bold. I mean, I know my audience too. I might just agree with you and take the over and say that's fine, you know, seven and a half plus is very much in the cards. I was a little lower on Dallas Turner, I think, than others.

I liked him as the third, maybe fourth edge. In that first round, I liked lot to inverse Then probably Turner and chop Robinson in discussing those guys But I know a lot of people like Turner the benefit here is is being the number three being in pass rush only situations I think the additions of Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen are absolutely massive. Even if only one of those guys hits They're both a little bit older. They're both probably a year or two away from you know removed from their best production but those guys are pass rush specialists so you're talking about the Vikings and again we just pre-recorded a show talking about the

best units and I added the Vikings defensive line in there because if you're talking about Dallas Turner as your number three edge rusher you're in a pretty good spot when you're talking about Alan and Hargrave and then a guy like Jalen Redmond, one of my favorite sleepers in the NFL. Love that, love the depth on this defensive line. So yeah, I think there'll be plenty of opportunities. I would almost pose this to you. What does this do?

What does Brian Flores do with his scheme this year? Do you think the move the last two years we're going to get to two top end edge rushers. Now we've got two top end pass rushers on the defensive interior. Are we still blitzing at one of the top three highest rates in the NFL this year like they have the last couple years? Are they still, uh, you know, playing the trickeration game or they trust in a four man rush or, you you know some sim pressures and moving Dallas Turner around and creating mismatches I'm curious to know what they're going to do

schematically so I think seven and a half even if he only rushes the passer 250 times is possible because of all the help that he has around him well and I was looking at Patrick Jones's role for them last year and how he was a major pass rusher for them and finished with seven sacks. Most of them came in the first couple of games as sacks tend to do. But even if he just takes on that role with a little dynamic element of dropping back in coverage from time to time. But I think they love the NASCAR package with the multiple edge rushers. And I also think with Andrew Van Ginkle and how dynamic he is, he might drop by five sacks this year, but be just as valuable because all of a sudden

he's playing inside linebacker at times. That guy can do just about anything. So every single play you line up, there's a different personnel grouping staring back at you with guys lined up where you didn't expect them to be. And even just little OTA mini camp thing. Turner's lining up at linebacker.

He's lining up this side, that side, kind of all over the place. So I think they want him to be a dynamic weapon. As far as how they're going to use the D line, I think there's two different ways to go about it. One way would be to play an old school three, four and still rush five all the time, but have it be all your defensive linemen. Cause I was kind of thinking like Joel Steed in there somewhere and, you know, Kevin Green and Greg Lloyd, like, is it going to look like a true three, four type of defense?

Or they could also just rotate those guys in. So one play it's Allen, one play it's Hargrave. You have two DTs, you're rushing linebackers. Cause I don't think you want to change a ton. You just had a top five offense. Like you want Blake Cashman to blitz. You want Josh Metellus to blitz. But I think it just gives them this other button to push

to say, all right, well, this is a game where we want five rushers all on the D line. This is a game where maybe the quarterback struggles to pick up blitzes from the second level. So now we're going to do that. The biggest thing I think that makes Brian Flores great great Steve is just how he never is locked into one line of thinking. I mean, last year, all of a sudden he plays an undrafted free agent, like 30 snaps in a game. And then we didn't see him again outside of a handful of snaps in a blowout game. It was like, he just decided that guy had a good

matchup for that games. It was like, I'm going to play him. And I think that that like ever shape shifting type of mentality is, you know, comes from Belichick, but it is really worked here with this level of personnel. I do love that. I mean, look, Flores has been one of the one of the most fun defensive coordinators to watch over the last couple of years because he's, you know, there's, there's really this homogenization of scheme in the NFL. Whereas like in college football, you have this really diverse, you could put it into like four or five different quadrants,

the styles of defense, offense and defense that are run. In the NFL, it's like 25 teams are just clustered in the middle, and then you have like a run-heavy team, and a super pass-heavy team, and defensively like uber blitzing and no blitzing, and all cover three. Like, there's just a couple outliers. Like, Flores has just been the special level of outlier

in many things that he's done, which includes the number of rushers, extreme ends of three-man rushes and five-plus rushes. But the way they're building the team with, I think, five legit potential pass rushers there plus Jalen Redmond And then you add in the fact that you have you know Cashman Kim blitz a little bit Ivan pace jr Was one of the best blitzing linebackers to come out a couple years ago then Van Ginkle and Dallas Turner are two of the

The edge rushers that you would trust in coverage the most in the NFL as far as athleticism goes So you do really have so many options up front and I can't wait to see how it's all how it's all deployed. Before I get you the next bold prediction, is this a top five defense again you think? Yeah, I think they have the potential there. It's funny because I'm doing a lot of the team-based unit rankings and various things have my own numbers and projections on that. I mean the Vikings come out strong in so many different areas. But the other part is, you know, with my PFF history, a lot of what I do is look at the player level and, you know, in isolation, you say,

well, Jonathan Allen hasn't been great against the run the last couple of years. And Javon Hargrave hasn't been great against the run the last couple of years, but they can get after the quarterback. But I also look at the way the Vikings play team defense and loading the box up and creating that uncertainty and indecision. I really think they might have the best balance of they might not have. They don't really have the Joel Steed, like the old school two, two gapping nose tackle. They don't have, I don't great, great dudes on the interior for stopping the run,

but they have good team run defense. So I feel good about their team run defense. And I feel good about their individuals rushing the passer and, and, and playing in the back seven. So I think when you put that all together, the flexibility, the depth, the flexibility of the scheme and the fact that they stopped the run as a unit and then have all the pass game flexibility that they have, I think they have all the makings of a top five defense, absolutely.

And this is a good point about the PFF grades and stuff like that, which you and I have both had long conversations about these grades. And every time you bring them up, it's like, well, it can't tell you this, it can't tell you this. And one of the things is we can use our brain to figure out like what these things mean.

And sometimes with that run defense grade, it can really shift from year to year with individual players based on how a team is even asking someone to play. So Hargrave, for example, was pretty good in one place, I think Philadelphia, and then not so good in San Francisco. Well, are they asking him to just stop the run on the way to the quarterback or are they asking him on certain plays to stuff gaps, which is going to get you a higher grade because you're not missing tackles in the backfield as you penetrate and things like that.

Like it's sort of complicated to figure out and isolate one player as a run defender just based on a grade. Uh, like where are, and linebackers all the time, like who's playing in front of you and do you have a great, a great Joel Steed or Gilbert Brown or Ted Washington in front of you because your job is a lot easier at that point. So can we do a 90s nose tackle show sometime, Matt? If there's anyone that I could do it with,

I think it would be you. Yes, I would love that. Sam Adams. I just, I'm going to say Sam Adams and then I'm going to move on. Sorry, go ahead. I need, I need Williams wall thrown in there, a little 2000s element to that. OK, next prediction.

On Christmas Day, hopefully you have got your Netflix set up so you can sit there on the Lord Jesus Christ's birthday and watch football as Christ meant to happen. So I have the Vikings and Lions that day deciding the NFC North, that that game, just like how it came down to week 18, once again, there will be a battle only this time at US Bank Stadium, where those two teams,

whoever wins that particular game, will take the crown for the division. Is that something you would be interested in? Is that bold or not? No, I love that. I think that's right. I mean, the other thing though, last year at this time we were saying

the NFC North might be the deepest division. I think we were looking at both of the Norths, AFC and NFC. And I think both were correct. The AFC North had a little bit of disappointment from the Browns and the Bengals early on, but you got the Steelers looking really good early and the Ravens once again one of the best teams in the NFL. And then early on what every NFC North team was what four and two or better at the same time. And then the Bears didn't win another game for three months. I get it. But they're going to

be hyped up. They're one of the offseason winners. So the Bears, they're still they're going to be tough and competitive. You got Ben Johnson moving there. Um, the Packers have a, a strong enough nucleus. So it's going to be, it's, I think it's another loaded NFC North and really competitive NFC North. But I think the Packers certainly were a tick below what the Vikings and Lions were last year tick below what the Eagles were. I would not be surprised to see something similar. I hate that we don't know what JJ McCarthy is. He is just such an unknown in this here. But if he's pretty good, if he's pretty good or better,

I think the Vikings are going to be one of the better teams in the NFL again. And absolutely, I think, challenging the Lions. So that uncertainty at quarterback for JJ, the uncertainty in Detroit, not having Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, it's the first real turnover in this little run that the Lions have had, right? They've been starting with 2021, stacking brick by brick, a better roster, better roster,

been very much together from a coaching staff. This is the first time you're taking a few of those building blocks away. First time you're actually pulling those away from the Lions. And I think they've been outstanding, but disappointing finish to their season last year. But they have just been continuing to add young players, getting better and better every year.

Now is the first time they're going to be challenged with fewer coaching staff turnover. And then in the coming years, paying some of those young players and probably making some decisions. So it's an interesting time I think for the Lions. So I think there's uncertainty for them for the coaching staff. With the coaching staff there's uncertainty with the Vikings at quarterback. But I still think they're the two best teams in the north and I think that makes sense that they're battling for the division right late into the season.

And I think if you were just to do all roster rankings, which you guys did, that Detroit and Minnesota are right there. And the biggest question for Detroit that I have, I mean, two really, the interior of their offensive line has been such a weapon for them in recent years. Is it still going to be minus Frank Ragnow? Because Harrison Phillips was talking about playing against Frank Ragnow and he was like, that's one of the hardest players in the league to go against as a defensive tackle. There's no throw in Tate Ratledge and you'll be fine or whoever the hell else is going to play center for them. You just don't replace a player that good very quickly. And then the other part is there was such synergy between Ben Johnson and Jared Goff. It was like he fully, deeply understood what golf can see, how he can throw, what works for him.

Those in breaking routes to play actions and he's just good at that stuff. And is there new offensive coordinator really going to understand that? I think it's just as big of a question mark as having a young quarterback drop into a team that we've seen. Elevate a quarterback.

So yeah, I thought I thought that one was only mediocre bold, but it really comes down to how much do you believe in the Bears and the Packers? We've been talking about this a lot with the Packers, Steve. I just expected more this offseason. Like at some point you have to stop pretending you still have Farvin Rogers and start spending some money on someone other than Aaron Banks, who to me just doesn't move the needle at all,

and was one of the stranger moves of the off season. But aside from that, okay, you're drafting a receiver. Okay, all right. I mean, that's a good idea, but it's not like they went and traded for a DK Metcalf or a Debo Samuel or made one of these monumental type of moves that were available for other teams. And even like Jalen Ramsey's out there now,

I don't expect the Packers to get involved in something like that. I just think they're kind of the same team. And you made a point about this about how when a team doesn't do a ton of stuff that we sort of are like, whatever, they don't move the needle. But I just think that they're about the same, which is not going to be good enough to compete in this division. No, I think it's a fair criticism of the Packers.

I mean, this, this goes back decades. It's, it's interesting to me because I always made the point during the Brady Belichick years. I think Belichick had this false sense of security by having Brady and in the standard was so high there, if Belichick in the front office had a bad off season, say it was like, Oh man, we're only going to the AFC championship. But when they get there, it's like, man, Tom Brady's thrown to Austin Colley at the end of his career.

That's rough, that's not gonna work. Probably not winning the Super Bowl this year. And then when they had a good offseason, it's like, oh look, there's Randy Moss. We're gonna break records and look, we drafted Gronk and Hernandez. We've got one of the best offenses in the NFL. So you have a good offseason,

and it's like, all right, you're thinking Super Bowl. And the Packers may have elements of that in their team building forever, because there is I know other executives around the league who want to model after the Packers. The Packers and the Steelers system is where they're like, we don't tabble in free agency. We pick our spots, one or two, that's it.

But we're draft and develop. We sign our own guys and the whole deal. But did you get away with that because of Farvin Rogers, like you're saying? Because again, I think the elite quarterback just gives you so much leeway. You can miss on a defensive tackle. You can miss on a guard.

You can miss on a receiver and still win a whole lot. But if Jordan Love isn't that good, if he's not Aaron Rodgers good You've got to be better. You have to have better receivers You have to have a better offensive line and I think the Packers when you look up and down their roster They have a whole they have like a lot of pretty good players They've lost the stardom. I think that they had a few years ago. They had Devante Adams Jai Alexander Aaron Rodgers They've lost some of the stars and I think stars do matter I mean, I'm always back and forth between do you want to have 22 solid

starters? Or do you want to do what were the Rams always you know, they had Cooper Cup and Aaron Donald and Stafford and maybe it was top heavy. But those dudes can carry a lot. And I think the Packers are going this even keel draft and develop. But I'm not saying you have to have stars. But when you don't, it's challenging when you're going up against the Lions and the Vikings who have a lot more stars and depth on their roster so yeah I do feel a little you know about the Packers and I always over simplify but like if Jordan Love plays special which he's shown you know 10 to 12 weeks of in his career all right that that does offset a lot but if he doesn't and he's just pretty good, that's feels like a nine win team. You know, it's not it doesn't feel

as good as it maybe did going into last offseason. It looks to me like if you were building them on Madden that they have every position ranking is like an 84, which is, you know, it's good like they have 84 ranked wide. I don't know how they great now. They used to be much harsher. I don't know if you've noticed this with the modern Mad grade now. They used to be much harsher. I don't know if you've noticed this with the modern Madden games. They've punt those ratings up so everyone feels good about themselves. And I

saw I saw a Jackson Slater laughing at that the rookie offensive lineman for the Titans like how did I get a 75? I guess they think I'm going to be pretty good, but everybody's a 75 now. They used to give guys like 50 if you were an unproven player, but that's I mean when we when you write the sequel and the PFF book and everything when you write the second part Like our debates about when we were gonna go to the zero to 100 system the people in favor of it We're like, oh people understand zero to 100 they understand it It's like well

No, they don't cuz it's a different scale because some people think a 75 is a C Because that's what it is in school and that that's bad. But if the whole league is 75 or higher, then it's pretty good. It's Nobody it's the scales are all different. The PFF scales different from the Madden scale. So yeah, it's not easy to understand They have their own scaling tendencies Anyway, this is why this is why in terms of conversation I usually focus on the rank for where somebody is rather than the exact grade. Because if you say, well, you know, he's got like you said,

like he's got a 72.5, but on Madden is the guys like a 91, but that could be kind of the same performance. Sometimes depending if you're a guard getting into the 70s these days means you're like a great player. That's another thing that's a little tricky too, is we have edge rushers that are getting high 80s 90s but the best guards in the league there's maybe two guys in that ballpark but a little bit of yeah a little bit of a different discussion but with with the Bears I'm just gonna I'm gonna freelance here on why didn't write this one down but would it be bold to say the Bears

but would it be bold to say the Bears top eight offense? I mean, so much comes down to Caleb, Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson meshing together. I don't think it's crazy. I mean, I like the way they've added playmakers. I love what they did on the offensive line. I don't know if it's, I don't know if it moves the needle to like a top five offensive line,

but you get, you know, Joe Tooney in there and just they knew they needed to shore up the interior and they did a nice job I can't wait to see what Caleb Williams does with Ben Johnson because Caleb Williams season last year You know how we are in sports media We're always looking for clean narratives right and especially with young football players The cleanest narrative you're looking for was he started slow and then light goes on and things are better forever. And so you're always looking for that with young quarterbacks and sometimes it's true. Like Josh Allen's third year looked completely different from years one and two and he hasn't looked back since then. And but with

Caleb Williams it was like three bad games, two good games, all right this is it, and then two bad games, and then two good All right, this is it. And then two bad games, and then two good games, and then two bad and then two good. And they all looked different, right? There's an offensive coordinator firing in there. And sometimes I'm watching it. I'm like, there are four receivers within five yards of each other. That is a bad play call. And then there's other times it looked like he was so robotic in the pocket, where it's almost like a practice that this week they were like, you're going to look to this side of the field and then you're going to go to

this other side of the field and make your other read. And it's like, you're going to look here, you know, and then cancel that and then go way over here. It's just slow and methodical. Like there was no plays. Like when you see a great play caller, it's like the quarterbacks look to one side of the field. He cancels it quickly, and then boom, somebody comes open, like right into his vision, and it's there.

I don't think I saw that ever from Caleb Williams last year. And that's where Ben Johnson was great. Now, was that Ben Johnson being great with Jared Goff, who my colleague Sam Monson always likes to call the color by numbers quarterback, right? You give him the pattern, and he'll fill it in and he'll read it out exactly how you ask and execute. Whereas Caleb Williams is just more of a natural playmaker.

So that's where I can't wait to see how they mesh. But all I know is last year's offense wasn't working for the Bears and for Caleb Williams. And for every time he took a step forward, then there was two steps back a couple of weeks later. So yeah, I mean, it's in the range of outcomes because I think I think Caleb's still special. I think he could sit in the pocket, make the throws, throw the ball accurately enough. He's got to handle the pocket better. But there was points in his game.

You hate making any sort of Mahomes comparison, but when you say what's great about Mahomes, it's just natural playmaking and Allen and Caleb Williams has natural playmaking. He's got to do the mundane stuff better. That's where Allen took a big step forward. That's where Mahomes was special. Almost immediately he took what was there and then added in the special. Caleb has the special. He's got to take care of the mundane, but I think that's where Ben Johnson comes in and if he can get some of the easy stuff out of Caleb and then let him play free and easy, yeah, the potential is through the roof for what they're capable of.

They have the bodies, the line, the coordinator, even the receivers that they definitely have tight ends, many of them now to be a top 10 offense. And they also don't have a good enough defense that they're gonna just be able to run the football and play from ahead. So I could see it. I don't think it's crazy bold, but, uh, if you're taking 60, whatever, eight sacks or something last year,

that is just such a red flag. I haven't been a huge believer that he can ever elevate to what people said he was going to be, but that also kind of reminds me of like the Trevor Lawrence. He's very good. He could certainly win under the right circumstances, but we just love to call people generational. And look, there are generational talents in podcasting, but there's very few, I think, when it comes to quarterbacks coming out. And they just love that. It reminds me of when you and I were younger, the, oh man, Vince Carter, he's the next Jordan. Vince Carter was amazing, but he wasn't the next Jordan and they you know do that to Anthony Edwards now these days. It feels like the same thing.

This guy's the next luck or manning like okay well we'll see about that. I want to rapid fire a couple more just for fun here around the NFL. I have uh Brian Dable being fired by week 14. What do you think of that? No I think that's. And I've been joking that the Giants, I think they've actually done a better job building that team, but I think schedule is difficult. And when I'm interviewing for GM jobs next off season, I wouldn't mind the Giants job. I think they've got some players there

that I want to build around with the belief neighbors and Abdul Carter. So I could see that absolutely playing out that way. I think it's a huge mistake for their owner to come out and say, like, you better win next year. Everybody's getting fired. I think that's just stupid because when you look at their roster and how they've built it, this is a side rant. When they move on from Saquon Barkley, that was the right move. They'd be paying Saquon Barkley gazillions of dollars

to average four and a half yards of carry and change nothing about their outcomes. They've drafted really well recently. They've made some good moves. They moved on from some of the right players, but they're a team that's gonna not be good for maybe one or two more years. And if you're saying, well, you better do it now,

then you do something even sillier and get Russell Wilson to try to win you eight games. It's just, that's not a great situation for me. You also have just really quick unbalanced incentives between front office coaching and then a rookie quarterback. I always say you got to do what's best for Jackson Dart, the rookie quarterback to be good next year in 2026. Well, if you're incentivized to win now he might be ready to play and you're not going to play him. He might not be ready to play and you're just going to play him because you need to do something. So they have to do well by Jackson Dart, not just, hey, go win this year where it does look they're better this year,

but the schedule is going to make it tough for that to actually show up. I think it wins and losses. Uh, Jayden Daniels, national football league MVP. I've called him a future MVP candidate. So that's not wild to me at all. I mean, look at the history of the year two quarterback jumps that we've seen and guys like Mahomes. It was his second year where he, you know, was breaking records. It was Burroughs second year where he went to the Super Bowl. It was Allen's third year where he turned into a star, but there was a lot of the second year breakout. And Daniel's already broke out, but now is there a next step with Debo Samuel

in there? Yeah I think that's absolutely I think he's in the conversation this year regardless yep. And then Cliff Kingsbury will be thrilled that he waited one extra year because then the Brinks truck will roll up for him. How about this one? Saquon Barkley will run for 700 fewer yards than he did last year. And this one is very research based on all the 2000 yard rushers. That the next year, that's about what happens. They usually go down about a yard and a half per carry

and somewhere between six and 700 yards less. I love this because this is the anti shouty show take, right? This is what's the last thing that we saw. You're crazy. And there's two things at play here, right? This is what's the last thing that we saw. You're crazy. And there's two things at play here, right? If you had said this after every one of those previous 2000 yard seasons, if you had said it that summer, hey, regressions coming, watch out, you can't bank on this again, they'd be like, what are you talking about? That's crazy. That's great. But it all happened. Oh, this guy got hurt or whatever. That's the first thing. And then

the second one is think about how many of his plays were 60 plus yard runs. There was that stat that I dug up late in the season. At one point he had 20% of the 50 or 60 yard runs in the NFL. He had 20%, one out of five were Saquon Barkley out of all the runs in the NFL that went 60 plus or 50 plus or whatever my cutoff was. That's wild. And he's awesome. And that's his skill set, right? You give him a crease and he could take it to the house. That's where he's special. It's really tough to replicate that though. So I love it, man.

I think that's a good, I think that's a good bold take. The Uber regression, wet blanket of reason after the 2000 yard season. Well, and the Vikings play the Eagles. So Vikings fans want that one as well. But no, I mean, it even reminded me of the year that CJ Spiller went crazy and averaged like six yards of carry and it was all based on a bunch of explosive runs

that had gone for 20 plus. And I wrote an article that off season, like he's gonna regress guys. He's not gonna have 15 out of his, you know, a hundred runs or whatever go for 20 plus yards. I'm thinking that might have, and just the sheer amount on the body. Seventeen weeks, the whole playoff run.

I think that will hurt as well. Just a couple more here. New Orleans to draft number one in twenty twenty six. I think we ranked them on check. The Mike is the worst roster in the NFL. My my model projecting teams for next year has them as the worst team in the NFL. I got the Saints as the worst team in the NFL. They're picking number one next year.

That'd be my take. The only thing that works against them for that prediction is the division, right? The South is way better than it's been, but it's still not great. They're still able to sneak a game maybe from Carolina or the Bucks or or the Falcons. Could they still win? Absolutely. But to me, they look like the worst team in the NFL. Definitely.

Dave Canales for Coach of the Year of the Carolina Panthers. How much of even my football loving audience knows the coach of the Panthers? The Panthers coach, Dr. Eric Eager as executive of the year will say. No, I think. I mean, here's what needs to happen. Bryce Young continues what he did in the second half. And look, Sam and I are arguing with our listeners

all the time when we're talking up Bryce Young. Like he had some of the most impressive 140 yard passing outings I've seen, for whatever that's worth. And the detractors would say, he threw for 140 yards. And I'm over there like, yeah, well, he threw three passes that got dropped that should have tacked on another 80 yards, changed the complexion of everything. If Bryce Young continues to play as well as he did in the second half of last year post benching, they've added a lot on the defensive line, added a weapon in Tedaro and McMillan, they invested a lot on the defense generally.

So yeah, I don't think that's wild. A lot of stuff has to happen though. He's got a leapfrog, a lot of other coaches and teams, and they got to get to 10 wins plus, I would say. And so that would be the challenge, I think, for Canalys to actually get there is what is actually the ceiling for the Panthers? Because they could show a lot of life this year and win eight or nine games, and that's going to feel good. For him to win coach of the year, they probably have to get get to like 12 and i'm not sure they could get to that point yeah i mean that could be true i i guess i was thinking about it either goes one or the other way like sometimes it's just a proven coach like a balachek who has a career high and wins or something like that but a lot of times it's oh we didn't think you were going to be that good and so here's coach of

the and that was the vikings last year i mean of course, O'Connell was more than deserving, but it's usually what was your Vegas line before? Oh, it was six and a half. You won 14 like you're in. Stefanski's had that, you know, before as well. Okay, last. Yeah, he did that. Stefanski does it like just sneaking in the playoffs, not necessarily battling for the number one seed. So yeah, it's possible. Last one. Maybe maybe the boldest ever considering history is so strongly against this actually happening that what can you even say the Buffalo Bills of Buffalo,

New York, technically Orchard Park, New York will win the Lombardi Trophy and their first Super Bowl championship in the long storied history of that franchise. I love it. I'm all in on this. I was rooting. I have no rooting interest. I'm unbiased NFL analyst, but the Bill's Lion Super Bowl would be something special. So the fan in me deep down is like, man, I would love to

see that. Now one of the fan bases is thrilled and one of the fan bases is more heartbreak. But man, a Bill's Lion Super Bowl would be great. I'm always interested in the mental aspect of the Bills coming so close and so close and so close because you know how many teams overreact to the last thing that they saw, like a shouty show in the off season. It's like, we couldn't stop the run this year and they draft three nose tackles. You know, like they overreact to the last thing that they saw. And I'm of the mind that the Bills don't need to

overreact to anything. It's literally a play here and there. And I don't know how you fix that. I don't know how you get the Bills and Josh Allen and the defense to make one or two more plays that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs every single time or just one time. I don't know how you get them to do that. I don't know how you get over this idea that you keep beating the Chiefs in the regular season but not the playoffs, other than staying the course. And I think the Bills, they had one starting spot open heading into the draft

and they drafted a corner who probably fills it in Maxwell Hairston. They've loaded up on the defensive line. Their reaction to their last couple of years is probably, who probably fills it in Maxwell Hairston. They've loaded up on the defensive line. Their reaction to their last couple of years is probably, hey, we had so many injuries, especially on defense. We don't want that to happen again. They're rolling about 12 deep on the defensive line right now, seven or eight deep in the secondary.

So I love the way they've attacked this off season. The nucleus is still there. They still have Allen, who at any time can take over a game. So one of these years, they're at least gonna make game. So one of these years they're at least going to make it and you know one of these years you'll be right with this bowl take. We'll say yes, I agree this year. Bill's win the Super Bowl. The only thing is I would have liked to see them draft a wide receiver or acquire a wide receiver

that could have been a little bit more than just a B minus guy. I feel if I feel like they have a bunch of B minus guys there, but maybe that will add up to enough. That's my only skepticism about taking that offense to another level after seeing what they did last year in the playoffs where they couldn't really throw effectively in the second half of that game. Thought you need a dude, a dude who can be open at all times. That was Josh Allen's best career year was when Diggs was in his peak and he

could just lean on him. So I think that's my one skepticism, but that's kind of nitpicking when you have a team that is so close time and time again. So I apologize by the way, I usually know my audience really well. You know, I usually said Vikings. Yeah, I was going to point that out, but I just moved on. Bill's Vikings is the super bowl I'm rooting for at all all times and Vikings win and a heartbreak for the bills. But after all, Minnesota fans have gone through, they deserve the Super Bowl. But you're the one picking the bills with the ball takes.

So that's all you. But I apologize. The one time I let that slip, you know, moment of weakness. They're not playing to the audience the way I should have. Hey, here's where I feel good for Detroit, that Vikings fans hate them now, which never happened before. There was like, oh can't wait to play Detroit. There's free W. Thanks Matt, Patricia and move on. I will, are the shouty show t-shirts, are those out? Can I get one? Yes, they're out. We've got, we've multiple ones. We have ones with like people

talking, no shouty shows. We have the no shouty shows with the big X through it and everything. Yeah, they're out there right now. It is peak shouty show season. I mean, it's tough when teams only play one to three games a week, depending on your sport. And the shouty shows are resetting the GOAT conversation five days a week.

It is really tough to put good content out there when you have to have a goat conversation five times and there's only like a game per week. So yeah, we recommend that you, you know, do not listen or watch the shouty shows. We should have debated LeBron versus Mahomes on the show versus versus the Cowboys. LeBron versus Michael versus the Cowboys versus Patrick Mahomes. And then we would have done this right. Then the downloads are crazy. What does Dax legacy mean for Jordan, LeBron, Mahomes? Is Taylor Swift a distraction at tight end university? A lot of people are asking. I didn't know this would be down forever.

Again, check the Mike podcast. I listened to every single episode. I'm a jogs and in my car and everything else, you and Sam Monson, uh, do the best job out there. So thank you so much again, Steve for your time. And we'll definitely do it again. Maybe when there's football games, I don't know. Love it.

Yeah. Thanks, Matt. Anytime, man.