Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Steve Palazzolo thinks Sam Darnold will be a wild ride

Episode Date: August 29, 2024

Former PFF'er and host of the Check The Mic podcast Steve Palazzolo makes some pie charts with Sam Darnold's performance and comes up with a name for this Vikings season that's a little more optimistic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here and returning to the show, the great Steve Palazzolo, formerly now of PFF and now the Check the Mic podcast with you and Sam Monson. It is the exact same podcast that you know and love from PFF, but now it is in a different place.

So if you're watching on YouTube, go over, subscribe to the YouTube. If you listen in your car or whatever or on your jog or workout make sure you're downloading it on itunes spotify and all that now with 33rd team how we feeling steve everything is so much different that you're doing the same show in a different place that's got to be the same for you yeah i mean it's a little different but yeah like we keep trying to say hey it's going to be the the same, the same long form, the same stuff that our fans, listeners, viewers have enjoyed over the last few years, I believe.

So carrying that over, just a new name called Check the Mic, as you mentioned. And yeah, I'm excited to go on this journey with Sam, believe it or not, you know, sticking together and trying to build something uh outside of pff well uh i'm really glad that it's sticking around in its same form because usually after the games the two-hour marathon podcast where you guys break down every game is how i find out what happened in the rest of the league outside of just the highlights because i was buried in vikings giants and east rutherford for week one so you've been my lifeline to understand what went on. I still don't fully understand how you're able to keep track of all that, but it is a terrific day after podcast. Anyway, so we got some Vikings that I want to talk with you about,

and I've been trying to think of different ways we can frame this Viking season. Now, your partner in crime, Sam Monson called it a mulligan season. I like, come on, man, I got to cover 17 games and maybe playoffs here. We can't be calling it a mulligan season. Give me some better framing for this. Give, give me a more enthusiastic take on what this Viking season could be, or at least try. Is he saying that just because of the JJ injury? I mean, that's look mean that's look that's that's tough it's a tough one because you want to have that excitement that was the first it's the biggest move of the Quazies regime here to to move on from Kirk Cousins but I would say it's time to

to see Brian Flores's defense in a new light and in what they're capable of doing I thought last year was one of the more fascinating stories around the NFL, watching how they play defense with the rushing three and then blitzing like crazy, rushing six. We had never seen a defensive structure really like that. And it wasn't just what Flores wanted to do. I think it was personnel driven. So I think they've spent the offseason loading up on personnel to fit what they want to do defensively, even with all the cornerback injuries and the issues there. And I think, look, offensively, we get more Sam Darnold data points. That's what I'm excited about. Sam Darnold has some believers around there, has some people that have believed in him quite a bit. And other than last year with San Francisco, if he had been able, if he had beaten out Brock Purdy or jumped into the starting lineup for some reason, that would have been the best supporting cast Sam Darnold's ever had. But this is second best supporting cast. So I think you have a very good capable team. We'll call it a foundation year

for next year with J.J. McCarthy coming back off his injury. You're going to see all those foundational pieces on offense coming together. The foundational pieces on defense as they've gotten younger and added those edge rushers. And then you're going to throw JJ McCarthy into the mix to look mix, who looked like a star in his one preseason game. You have that hope to just live for another 12 months and we'll call it a foundation season for 2025.

You started to border on wrestling promo there for a second. Like we got JJ coming back and we're going to be the greatest in history of world wrestling and football. I'm doing it for the fans. I'm doing it to, you know, create optimism. It's, it's my version of NFL yearbook, which I know you and I both love, right? You, you gotta, you have to get into the season with all kinds of enthusiasm unknown to mankind as someone even said you know you're right though it would be foundational season the Minnesota Vikings set themselves up for success next year with a rookie quarterback yeah uh so I like that framing though a little bit better than mulligan season not only because

there's things to watch going forward but also I think it's a little more better than mulligan season not only because there's things to watch going forward but also i think it's a little more true to tell you the truth because this is not a team that has no talent and just a bunch of dudes that you're all going to replace this team has players that they are going to have for the foreseeable future they gave jonathan grittard a four-year contract for $22 million or something like that per year. And that's not a player who comes here to be like, yeah, I guess we'll just sort of vibe for this year and see what happens in the future. Derrissaw signs an extension. Jefferson signs an extension. They draft Addison in the first round. They make the trade for

Hawkinson. They pay him like this isn't a team that looks like, oh, you're just sort of holding everybody's place until you can get rid of them and then draft a bunch of other players. They also have no draft capital whatsoever for the going forward. So a lot of this, they have to have as foundational pieces to just drop McCarthy in next season and believe that they can spend in free agency and then make a big step after that. Yeah. I mean, Quasies, every, every move that he makes was just so fascinating because he was coming from a different background than most general managers. And it was like, all right, what's this going to look like, especially three years in when he really gets his fingerprints on

the team. And I think it's unfair a lot of the time to only judge the general manager based off the quarterback. You know, there was, I was on a Browns podcast the other day and they're saying hey is this it for if Andrew Berry missed on Deshaun Watson is that it for him it's like well if 90% of his moves are pretty good and it's just the quarterback that you're questioning I would keep that guy around right so this is a big year I think for Kwesi outside of he made the move to move on from Kirk Cousins and to go draft a quarterback, are these other pieces the right ones? Giving Justin Jefferson the money, the Grenard deal, as you mentioned, trading up for Dallas Turner in the first round, which you wouldn't expect

an analytical GM to do in previous times. You would expect him to not have what you said, limited draft capital next year. You would say, hey, the Vikings have 15 picks next year. They can't wait to use all those picks and build from the draft and really get younger. So I think it's a pivotal season for that. That foundation, the base, it's because I don't think Rick Spielman did a bad job by any means with Minnesota. They just wanted to – they needed to change things up, right? They were trying to say, hey, how do we get from – how do you get from good to great? And so it's a big year, I think, to see what those pieces look like for Kwesi.

All of the turnover, the locking up of some of the young players, many of whom came from the Rick Spielman era, and see what kind of nucleus they have to build around. And look, here's where it's a little boom or bust, because if it doesn't work, right, if they can't elevate a Sam Darnold during the season, you might say, ah, you know, the roster's not in as good a shape as we thought. And now it's a two-pronged issue. We don't know what the quarterback situation is, and we've got these other issues as far as where the roster goes. If the roster is good and they get the most out of Sam Darnold again you say hey let's let's pluck J.J. McCarthy in there he got a year to maybe sit and watch and learn a

little bit he was young anyway and we'll be real optimistic about year two so I think it's a fun year to watch the Vikings because of all the pieces and some of the turnover they've had over the last couple of years. No, it's a great point. And I wrote an article today about how when we were out there at Circa in Las Vegas, it was interesting to go through the over-unders for teams and the Vikings are sitting at six and a half. And I think that that's a very good line of demarcation for this season, because if you get seven, eight, nine, 10 wins somewhere in that range that can be determined by kickers, fumbles, bounces, schedules, whose quarterback gets hurt right before you're about to play

them and so forth, then I think we can all just move forward with our lives and go on with the plan and just 2025 and they could spend money in free agency. And then we'll see if JJ McCarthy is a great quarterback. And if they got it all right with the roster, if it's six or less, then that feels like a shift. And then we're talking about, is this roster really close? How much money do you have to spend? Cause you don't have draft picks. And then the other thing is too, that Kevin O'Connell has been talked about so much. And I think reasonably so as a guy who you can get the most out of quarterbacks from, but if you win five games with Sam Darnold as your starter, it's going to be a little bit harder to say, yeah, dude, just plug in JJ McCarthy and Kevin O'Connell will power

him up. And then he'll go off and be great. You might actually look at it and go, well, maybe just Kirk Cousins was pretty good and was the same guy all the time. I think that we've probably anointed Kevin O'Connell a little fast on that, even though Kirk Cousins was largely the same player. They just threw a little bit more often. I think O'Connell is a good offensive mind, but how much should I put into him having Sam Darnold as quarterback to decide whether he can whisper in the ears of JJ McCarthy going forward? First off, I've got a quick story. Me,

Kevin O'Connell and I were both at Elite 11 back in 2015 or 16 when Sam Darnold was there. And I was there with, we were on the – I was on the coaching staff with Trent Dilfer and, you know, O'Connell was there. And, again, that was the year Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen. I think Kyler Murray was there that year. So we go – we used to coach. We used to coach Sam Darnold is what I like to say, KOC and I. I don't know.

It's – the Vikings' last two seasons with O'Connell. What, what have we actually learned? This is a tough one, right? They had that, uh, one school 11 and O and one score games in 2022, which sometimes I like to attribute to the coach, like, Hey, you know, they did a good job late in games and maybe that'll bode well, but we know that generally regresses. We expected regression last year, but did we even learn that Kirk cousins gets hurt early on. They're picking Josh Dobbs up, and they've got all this quarterback turnover. I think overall, though, the Vikings in the O'Connell era,

they've done better than expected, right? And I think that's the simplest way as the head coach, who's not just QB whisperer, he has to be CEO. He's got to get the whole squad playing well, playing a little bit better than expected over the last couple of years, given everything that has happened. I think we'll learn a little bit this year with Darnold. Now, the Sam Darnold experience, though, is the one where I always joke that his first three games are exceptional. It's just a random

trend. I don't know how to do this analytically, Matt. I'm very analytical, and I like to tell stories off data and analysis. Sam Darnold is very streaky. I don't know what to do with that analytically. This dates back to USC. When he came out of USC, I thought he was going to be really good. I mean, as a redshirt freshman, he was doing incredible stuff. And then his redshirt sophomore year, I remember back using the PFF grades. If you just looked at all but three games, he was like QB three in the nation. But during those three games,

he was one of the five worst quarterbacks in all of college football. As a future first round pick, I mean, fumbling left and right, turnover worthyworthy plays all over the place. In the NFL, this has continued. His last four games as a rookie, he played really well. Three-game stretches at times with the Panthers where he looked good, whether the first three games of the season or first three games coming in, filling in a couple years ago. And then all of a sudden he has games like the last week of the season against the Saints where the Panthers kind of need to win,

and he looks terrible. So the streaking, I don't know what to do with streakiness. And so that's where I think O'Connell might be able to help. If you have a quarterback, when he's hot, Sam Darnold does some really nice stuff, throws to the middle of the field, throws with anticipation. A friend, Nate Tice, I'm sure you've talked to him a little bit. He's got that soft spot for Sam Darnold because you could see some of the potential in his play. So I wonder if O'Connell can get just the, how do you, how do you mitigate the downside? And maybe with this offense, when you have a Justin Jefferson, when you have a Jordan Addison, when Hawkinson comes back, maybe

just having those pieces around will help mitigate some of the downturn in Sam Darnold's play. That's what I'll be keeping an eye on for O'Connell. Can he take away some of the just those bad stretches that Darnold tends to have? So one of Darnold's best runs, and you mentioned it, he's had several of these throughout his career. But in that 2022 end of the season with Carolina, where his numbers actually don't look too bad, his turnover where the plays were down quite a bit. And something that is stuck in my mind is how often they keep saying, we want them to just play point guard, which I think means, uh,

don't throw it to the other team constantly and take sacks. Like feel free to check down to Aaron Jones if things go crazy. And yet in practice, what I've seen is still the, actually I'm going to force it in there and then try to, when things go, go, you know, break down, I'm going to try to force it into the tightest window. But I did notice in his data that Carolina ran about 38% play action with him. And when they threw screens, they average almost eight yards per pass attempt with screens,

which is really hard to maintain over an entire season. But these are things that Kevin O'Connell has not done well with Kirk Cousins. Actually, last year was the first time that Kirk Cousins was down on the list of his play action numbers. He had always been a guy year after year that was great. And with the screens, it's just been abominable the last two years for the Vikings. And this is what concerns me about what you're saying, because there are ways to kind of, you know, bring in the, uh, the wide range of things from, you know, kind of contain the bad, but you limit the good a little bit because you can't just do straight drop back all the time. But this is an offense that wants to do straight drop back all the time and i don't even think kirk cousins was always comfortable with having to do it and i just feel like cousin

or o'connell is going to play his system with sam darnold and we could end up with jamis winston 30 touchdowns 30 picks type of season from him you know i like that though because the the high end of that volatility is you know maybe the vik Viking surprise and they're really good. I mean, the two things I'll say there. So if, if you are looking at O'Connell working with cousins, one thing he may have had success with was kind of reprogramming Kirk a little bit, right? We had conservative Kirk in crunch time. We used to joke about garbage time, Kirk cousins, right? He would do nothing for the first three quarters. And before you know it, he's dinking and dunking down the field and not actually making a comeback but loading up on stats. And he's got 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Great game, Kirk. But his team had no chance of winning. I think we saw a more aggressive Kirk Cousins in that comeback season of 2022 when they were making all those fourth-quarter comebacks. So if you could say, hey, O'Connell has had some success taking a quarterback who had this ingrained style and maybe changing it, just moving just a little bit, maybe that's the thing that bodes well with Darnold,

despite what you've seen at practice, right? We'll see what happens when it comes game time. The other thing I'll say, when you have a Sam Darnold or whoever at quarterback that is not a take over the game type of guy, if you're going to drop back 30 or 35, 40 times in a game, I always view it as, do you have 10 to 15 cheat codes in there, right? So then you've only got 15 or 20 dropbacks where you got to go and play ball, right? You want to avoid those third and longs. And so that's where screen game, that's where play action, that's where two or three trick plays come in, take a little something off the quarterback's

plate. And then they just have to go. Then you go read it out and have your third and eights where you got it. You have to make some plays, but you just want to limit that ability or, you know, the, the need for that, uh, with the quarterback. So that'll be interesting to see if they do lean into that, get more out of the things that you're saying, the play action, the screen game, some of those quote unquote, or just, or just Aaron Jones as a runner, right? Just running the ball a little bit more when he is healthy. He is very, very good. It's the best run game they'll probably have in three or four years with him running the ball. And so that's something else to lean into and take a little pressure off Darnold.

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been you know what uh that one run didn't work let's just go back to passing the ball and the the uh the real test case was with josh dobbs where even with Josh Dobbs, he was still having him throw a bunch of times, even when they did have some success on the ground in particular games. It was like, it just doesn't click for him as a former quarterback that you can just keep running when it succeeds. And I think that was something when Kevin Stefanski was here that he did very well that I want to see if Kevin O'Connell is willing to do that more

with Sam Darnold my inclination is no I I just don't think he's going to uh but we'll see I that is really quick I mean we oversimplify some stuff in the media right like the Kyle Shanahan scheme is outside zone and play action that's why he's special I mean he's Kyle Shanahan special because he continues to grow they've evolved evolved their running game. They've added extra pieces. He's now more drop back pass than he was before. Sean McVay took a couple of years, I think, to evolve. But last year, all of a sudden, they've changed their run game. They're different stylistically. in that sense it's a pivotal season for O'Connell because it's not a system or a scheme that you have it's the ability to always stay one step ahead of the rest of the NFL and the Shanahan and all their derivatives they've done a nice job they've always stayed one step ahead and we've seen that but it's a it's a it's a continued work in progress it is a big year I think for O'Connell to be able to do that right and I think what with J.J. McCarthy getting hurt, the issue is that they don't have a button to push

if it's not working and they just have to keep trying to make it work. And we'll see how it kind of develops as they go along. But I couldn't do this conversation without some general silliness overall. So I don't know how good you are at math on the fly. Now, I mean, having worked at PFF, you know the data, but are you good at math on the fly? Because I want you to make a pie chart for me, okay? I'm going to give you four options for what Sam Darnold's PFF grade could be for this season. And I want you to tell me the percentage chance that each one of them happens okay 60 or below 60 to 70 70 to 80 80 plus so those are your four options give me a percentage chance of each one it has to add up to 100 which sometimes is a problem on the show uh but 60 or below 60 to 70 70 to 80 80 plus so i've just uh clicked into donald's page

here just to just to make sure i've got the right frame of reference where he's been even in those seasons where he showed a lot of positives and signs of life 2021 22 with the panthers a little bit last year with the 49ers he still pretty much lands in the 50s and 60s every year. I think the 60 to 70 range is like 70%. Oh, wow. So I got 70%. You're leaning heavy on that one. Okay.

Yeah, 70%, 60 to 70. Under 60, we'll say 10%. I might go 10% 70 to 80. No. Yeah. 20. 50. I got it.

So I'm writing it down. Under 60 is 15%. 70, 60 to 70 is 70%. 70 to 80 is 14%. 80 plus is 1%. 1%? Yeah.

All right, how many, if you've got it right there, how many guys go 80 or plus in a given year? Oh, you probably get about 12, 10 to 8 12 10 to so one percent chance that he ends up as a top 12 quarterback huh i think that's fair i think that's fair right i think that's fair there's just there's too many mistakes that happen and bad throws and even though he has a golden arm and we've seen that and probably probably Nate Tice has been talking him up because the day Nate Tice was at practice, Darnold went crazy. I mean, it was just fantastic. And when you see that it's hard not to go, wow, this could be really great. But the downside, there's just too many, even inaccurate balls. There's too many sacks that get taken that aren't good and are his fault. Or

there's too many interceptions or turnover worthy plays. I, it would be hard for him to be in the eighties with the number of negative plays that I would expect. Yeah. And so, but here's what I would say, like as a fan, you're not necessarily rooting for PFF grade, you're rooting for the production. And so the same thing I said about the Panthers probably in 21, I forget their exact supporting cast, but I think they had Joe Brady back then, if I'm remembering. I anticipated maybe he was going to put up some good stats. They were coming off Teddy Bridgewater seasons. I'm trying to remember the timeline.

I thought he would put up decent stats, even if the grade wasn't great. That is certainly possible here. I mean, you have Justin Jefferson, right? You have Justin Jefferson who's going to get open and Jefferson's going to have his games where he has 8 to 12 catches and a buck 50, you could still have production. I just think those turnover-worthy plays, the natural accuracy, like the accuracy is pinpoint on one pass and then just miss on another pass,

a lot like we see with Drake May with the Patriots right now as he's developing. So the grade itself, I don't know, even if he lands at a 68 grade, which would be pretty good for him, that would be a career high, 68. If he has a 68 grade, you might have one of those seasons where, I don't know what, you know, passer ratings 95 or whatever it is. If you get a little bit of interception luck and you're just, you know, picking up yards because you've got two awesome receivers, a tight end that's going to come

back, work in the middle of the field, a good run game, Aaron Jones, who can catch the ball out of the backfield. So that's what I'd be rooting for is the statistical output, EPA, or whatever is a better measure of offense could still be decent. Even if Darnold's play is below where you'd want it I also think that it's fair for Vikings fans knowing that they're really looking forward to 2025 and when JJ McCarthy arrives to just say kick your feet up and watch the show and please give me entertainment Sam Darnold and if that means a 62 pff grade which is a lot of negative plays, but he has some incredible throws and they have a lot of close games and it's fun.

It's just a, Hey, we're just seeing what happens here type of season. Then, then that's okay. From Sam Darnall. I don't disagree with your, your chart. I think 60 to 70 is by far the most likely if he gets over 70, then you have a chance to make the playoffs with the players that he has around him and with the defense that he has on that side now here's stupid game number two for you steve i'm ready you and i every time we see each other we end up talking about 90s and

2000 stuff we were talking about greg maddox pitching the other day mark brunel uh you i was there when you met mark brunel at the combine and special day a special little confused it's just if you were anything below six four i think it would have been a more normal interaction but he's just looking up at you like who are you giant dude saying hi why are you so giddy to see me right i think he was wasn't he meeting o'connell that night or wasn't he about i think he was or something like that yeah but that was that that was uh that was memorable i would say for us and maybe not him but uh here's what i want from you i want 90s and early 2000s comps for sam darnold justin jefferson kevin o'connell

jared goff and jordan love and i'll give you mine so i'll give you some time to think okay this this is not a podcast you can just sit back on autopilot steve i got you here we go i'm ready here we go here we go my sam darnold comp is vinnie testaverti but i also think it could be rick meyer if it goes bad. It's closer to Meyer than Testaverde. I can't even use. I've used Testaverde elsewhere. So I can't even use that. That's Jameis.

He's Jameis. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Sorry. But, you know, Testaverde had that 12 and one run for the Jets. And actually, even in Cleveland, I think I'm going to go Cleveland Testaverde, where he was pretty entertaining, but maybe not great all the time. And let's just hope it's not Meyer.

Cause that's going to be miserable as it was for all teams that gave Rick Meyer another chance, uh, for Jefferson, I've got Isaac Bruce, not the hugest guy, but can do anything anywhere all the time. Great route runner, unbelievable ball tracker, competitor for KOC. The best outcome for KOC is Andy Reed Eagles with his Donovan McNabb, where it's still a quarterback with some flaws, but he makes the most out of it. Although I think McCarthy might have a little more leadership element than McNabb. McNabb may have had some more physical tools, but for Jared Goff, I've got Trent Green, Kansas City, 13 win Kansas City, Trent Green. And for Jordan Love, I have early Eli Manning, which is a very different than old Eli Manning,

but early Eli Manning had a lot of great and a lot of bad, and it was kind of wild. And I think that Jordan Love is still in there, even though he didn't have a lot of great and a lot of bad, and it was kind of wild. And I think that Jordan Love is still in there, even though he didn't have a lot of turnover-worthy plays overall last year. So those are my 90s and 2000s comps. What do you got? I like it. So, Darnold, I need a minute here. You're looking at, man, maybe brian greasy oh okay you're talking a little bit of a more

conservative sam darnold with the 2000 something was it three broncos see i've made the jake plumber comp before with jake plumber could be but he's also he's also more of like a journeyman backup at this point. And that's Doug Peterson, potentially. End of his career, Doug Peterson. So this isn't exciting for Vikings fans. I tried to lean a little bit more exciting with Greasy. Okay. Somebody who was more of a backup and then ends up being a good starter?

Justin Jefferson is Marvin Harrison to me. Or Jimmy Smith. Or either one. They're equal elite receivers. Isaac Bruce is great. We're talking best in the league types, right? Also, it never stops being cool that Keenan McArdle is here, by the way. And he's like the best receivers coach.

Yeah, that's awesome. He is great. KOC, I might need a minute thinking through coaches as I look back here. And your children blood-curdlingly scream in the background. My five-year-old i mean i think i've said before on the show they're all named after vikings unintentionally oh really we have harrison is my oldest harrison smith we have teddy is my second oldest we got teddy bridgewater benny who i determined must be benny sap benny sap yeah and then i have toby who's toby

gerhardt so it's somewhere in that 13 to 15 uh Vikings range right there and uh Brock after Brock Lesnar brief uh Viking training camp not yet but uh a fifth maybe we'll maybe we'll consider that uh Jared Goff I like that Trent Green cop because Trent you know Trent left the Rams he was look he would have probably been in the MVP conversation had he not gotten hurt and just played instead of Kurt Warner it's like crazy thing in sports um because he then he went to Kansas City had not as good of a supporting cast but similar and he put up monster numbers he was he was outstanding how about um does the other guy i'm thinking what about um i'm just clicking on 1999 qb stats elvis gerback there's a little

elvis gerback kansas city having the good supporting cast running the ball really well always having like tight ends running backs to check it down to. It's not a knock. I think Goff is better than Elvis Gerback, but yeah. My guy Brunel ended up with a similar career as Goff, right? Yeah, yeah. A little more athletic. Maybe Donald is Tim Couch.

Man, I really thought. That's actually pretty good. I really believed in Couch. I really believed in couch. I really believed he'd be a guy. So Tim got it. Well, here's where it's similar with Tim couch. Only Darnold has not been so injured that his career was just over, uh, with, with, uh, but with Tim couch, he comes into the league in about the worst situation ever. He actually has some moments. He had some stretches and some good games where you thought like no this guy will be a franchise quarterback but the supporting cast was so bad the injuries happened to him he never got a second chance that sam darnold's gonna get to go play with an elite wide receiver oh absolutely i think that's uh

it it is so tough with the qb evaluation stuff you i mean lookJ. Stroud last year didn't look like he had a good situation, and by the end of it, Nico Collins is making $24 million a year. I mean, he had the play caller too, but you just see how much maybe Stroud elevated a situation that shouldn't have been great, but on the other end, the situation does seem to really crush quarterbacks sometimes. So Gerbeck had a huge season in 2000. How about Dante Culpepper for jordan love oh yeah i'm just thinking like a high high end like the high end years of culpepper i think

love has i don't want to overrate eight or nine games but i think he's got that high end potential to play like a top five to seven quarterback year in year out. Well, here's what I like about that is when Culpepper, when the fumbles would bounce to the other team instead of his team, or the jump balls would end up intercepted instead of caught by Randy Moss, they would win five or six games. So they also had a bad defense, which Green Bay might also have a bad defense. And I wonder about that with Jordan Love last year, where there was a lot of jump balls that in the second half of that season, they came down with.

And are they going to come down with them again? I've also always wondered if they reined in Dante Culpepper to today's football, which is a lot more average depth of target lower as opposed to everything is drop back seven steps and throw it 18 yards or or farther down the field Culpepper might have looked like this the running element is not there for Jordan Love but there is right it's not a wild man type of thing yeah definitely not the exact runner um I think it's fascinating by the

way that Randy Moss like sometimes you play with a court you see a receiver it, man, if he had only played with that guy, everybody that Moss played with was like perfect for him. Like Randall Cunningham throwing the ball a mile, Jeff George throwing the ball a mile, Dante Culpepper, and then Brady, who, you know, of course was just better than all those guys, but also could get the ball down the field. Moss actually had good quarterbacks for that downfield skill set. You didn't get that. Even Brad Johnson even could get the ball to him a little bit.

That was like the only probably mismatch of quarterbacks for him. But I can't think of a good coach right now for KOC. Yeah, I went with Andy Reid just thinking about that coach QB type of connection is kind of what I was thinking along those lines, but he also could be an Eric man, Jeannie, where he comes in and has some success and they call him man genius. And then it doesn't go anywhere from there.

I mean, the thing about KOC and this is, I know there's context to this, but seven and one to start his career and field goals went in and it, you know, every, every random thing happened to get them to 7-1. And since then, including the playoff loss, it's 13-14.

And there might be some of that. It comes in like a ball of fire and everything works out for you in the first year to start it. But then the reality of the NFL arrives at your doorstep and it looks a lot harder than it appeared at the beginning. So I think you're hoping if your Vikings fans a lot more for the Andy Reid side. The hardest thing about judging all coaches is just how much the quarterback dictates dictates this thing. I mean, we saw the fact that they were debating Brady versus Belichick

after Brady left and Belichick wasn't winning games. And it's like, even Belichick has to perhaps rely on the quarterback. And that's why a guy like Andy Reid, who has obviously Mahomes took him to a new level, but he's kind of been like always able to elevate the quarterback or of Super Bowls. It is so tough to find a coach. It's almost like ranking quarterbacks, right? There's a handful who are game changers. And maybe with head coach, there's just a handful who are game changers. John Harbaugh, right? One with multiple quarterbacks, right? There's only a few of those guys. You don't get a whole lot of those data points, though, either, where a guy can win with multiple

quarterbacks and show that he can do it. Then you have a Mike Tomlin, right? When he has Ben Roethlisberger, they're competing for Super Bowls and AFC championships. When he doesn't, he's merely a nine win type of guy. So it's so tough when the quarterback drives wins and losses as much as they do. It's funny about coaches that I think that people who aren't in your market city cities that we have here, uh, are probably better at evaluating your coach than you are up close because you see every single flaw. And so if somebody in Wisconsin is like, Oh yeah, those Vikings, they got a pretty good coach in Kevin O'Connell. And that's closer to the truth than if they struggle with Darnold. I mean,

this is like, I mean, Cleveland, they were talking about potentially firing Kevin Stefanski, and then all of a sudden Flacco gets on the run, and then now he's coach of the year again or something. And there's just such a roller coaster with that. And often it's based on, well, how good your defense is, can vary so much from year to year. And the quarterback situation determines so much from year to year. And the quarterback situation

determines so much of it. But I think that with O'Connell, we shouldn't be overly judgmental about this year because of Sam Darnold. I have two more quick things for you. One is I would like you to offer you the opportunity to ask me

about the Vikings. What do you what do you want to know? What are you guys talking about that you would like to know about the Minnesota Vikings? Go ahead. I'm right here. Okay, great. So how, how do you feel? Are you surprised by the, the way quasi has looked to build this team? What are your thoughts on his team building strategy and where they are now heading into year three? This is a great question because I, like you, would have expected, I mean, that first draft that blew up in his face, of course,

trading down a bunch, trying to accumulate a huge number of draft picks to rebuild the team through the draft, I think was my expectation because he's an analytics person. There have been some players that they have got that I wouldn't have thought they would have been really interested in because they don't grade well by PFF. And as is in my book, Kweisi does use PFF quite a bit. But I think where it, he really has set his focus in almost NBA style is on timeline, that it's been more timeline than just doing the things that we widely accept as analytical. And if you look at when they got here, there was an edict from the

ownership. You're going to keep this band together. You're going to try to win with this group that we love so much. And they won 13 games and it was a success. And they added some guys like Zedaria Smith to help them get there. But then, I mean, Casey was well aware that you just can't keep doing that. Like Adam Thielen is going to run out of gas. And so is Delvin Cook. And so is Eric Hendricks. And you have to rebuild it. But also from the ownership perspective, they didn't want to tank. They are completely against that. They want to be in the playoffs every year. So you're kind of pigeonholed into this space where how do I make sure I'm keeping enough talent to keep us in playoff races while trying to add otherwise. And then when you see the opportunity to create a bleep ton of cap space by moving on from Kirk Cousins in one of the best drafts for quarterbacks, if not the best with six first round quarterbacks. I mean, it all kind of lined up to, we're going to make up the difference, try to get the high-end players that drive success

and make up the difference with money by having JJ McCarthy. I think that was the best they could have done because in an ideal world, if you just gave him a laptop and a football team and a blank slate, he would have accumulated draft capital. He would have tried to build it through the draft over multiple seasons, as opposed to trading for TJ Hawkinson and signing him to a huge extension or something like that.

I think this is the cards that he was dealt and is trying to work within those parameters the best he can. People don't realize that aspect of it. I was just talking to a GM recently, and you could almost hear it in his voice, the difficulty that he has dealing with, you know, handling the situation of I've got coaches who want certain types of players.

It's not as simple as I'm going to make my, he almost said like, what if I just made my own draft board and just kept drafting the best players? What I do better? And I kind of nodded. But it's like that's not the reality because the coaches have to use players a certain way. Or they might say, look, I need two or three tight ends on my team.

Or I need more depth at receiver. You actually have to build the roster around the coach's needs. And then you have the position coaches and their wants and needs, and are they going to connect with this player? And it really is managing generally rather than just picking players. Right. So I think that is an interesting one, a quick follow-up.

So the Dallas Turner trade up, is that in response to the trade down and passing up on a guy like Kyle Hamilton? Could be, you know, I think so. Quacey came on the show not too long ago. People could go look that up. It's really good conversation.

And I asked him a general question about the Timberwolves because at that time they were in the Western Conference final. And I said, hey, you ever talk to them? You know, the teams in town are pretty close. And he was talking about his conversation with their general manager or president of basketball, whoever, whatever, Tim Connolly, and how they had gone and done the Rudy Gobert trade. I don't know if you're a big basketball guy, but that was a kind of a controversial trade. It put them over the top to be a truly contending team, even though

by all metric, they overpaid, they went crazy on that type of trade, but that was the guy who could make a difference for them right now as Anthony Edwards was becoming a superstar. And I said, I think you're talking a little bit about Dallas Turner right here. Right. And when we think about the advantage salary cap wise, if you get an elite edge rusher, I mean mean that's almost the biggest gap other than quarterback right if not the biggest maybe wide receiver is having that guy in a rookie contract so we can't forget that part and i think he said something to the effect of sometimes you just gotta shoot your shot that they really believe in that player and he was a top 10 graded player

by most draft analysts you need difference making edge rushers. The best teams have the Nick Bosa's and so forth. So we just decided to go for it, even though by every metric and by every chart, they're like, no, no, no, no, no, no. You shouldn't be doing that because the odds of that pick and, and everything else, but it's not usual that there are six quarterbacks. So then you're kind of drafting more of like the 13th best player. And then there's two or three or four elite wide receiver prospects. And I think it just kind of fell in their lap, that opportunity. But it, it isn't an interesting move from someone who is analytical to go so far

against that and say, go get your guy. That's like the complete opposite of it. But it all, it all comes down to this, as always. If it works out, it's going to look great. And if it doesn't work out, it's not going to look good at all. And then everybody's going to go back and say, I told you so. And that's what makes football so wonderful. Let me ask you this before we wrap up.

What football team in the National Football League are you skeptical about that is either high on Vegas's over-unders, Super Bowl, getting hype, getting talked about, but you're like, you know, the Palo Zolo meter doesn't love that team. There's no such thing as that. My meter. I've been kind of consistent on highlighting the Jets, and it's not because I don't like what they've done. I still think Aaron Rodgers probably has it physically. It's just everything that they did, which, again, something I would do, go get Tyron Smith at left tackle,

go get Mike Williams at receiver. It just all comes with age and injury risk. And so being in the AFC East, I still think the Bills are going to be better than expected despite their turnover. And I think the Dolphins are going to be really good. I just think it's going to be a really tough AFC for the Jets. So I'll remain consistent and say I'm a little skeptical of the Jets, especially if they're now favorites to win the AFC East.

I mean, what's that off of some training camp hype where they dominated the Giants? It's interesting how that stuff's moving, but it's a 17-game schedule, right? They have to get through the whole thing, even if they're looking good right now. I don't like Philly's vibes. What do you think of Philly? Yeah, I've convinced myself that that's all the coordinator's fault last year. Here's my weakness, Matt, when I'm predicting stuff. I paint a picture in my head and it just stays. The picture in my head is that last year, the offense had no answers for a blitz. The defense was just an absolute train wreck in

the second half of the season. Maybe they snuck through a bunch of first half games and that was foreshadowing the second half, but it just felt like such a transition year that shouldn't have been. And now adding Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore probably bring in more stability at coordinator. I just think they're too talented. I think they're too talented. Howie Roseman got younger at a lot of the positions that look like they're getting older, right?

So I just think they have all the ingredients to get back on track. But I could be way off on that because i've painted this picture that the the locker room's going to be better and if chances are it could just be all nick sirianni you know it could just be he's still the guy in charge and it's going to be uh you know you know carry on from from last year's collapse yeah i think my logic is that center they had was pretty important to them better center than podcaster i think uh for jason kelsey but massive deal they have a massive i guess he's gonna get a lot yeah a lot more than we get for our podcast check the mic was recently

now apple apple rankings would never lie check the mic was a couple slots ahead of them so i'm expecting millions and millions of dollars to flow in here. Any moment now. Let's see. The rankings are kind of made up, but let's see. Yeah. I mean, we're at 16. They're at 18.

I'm just saying. I think the numbers are clear here. The data has spoken. They do maybe like one podcast a month and it blows us all away or whatever but uh they're amazing we just we just need to date taylor swift and i think uh we'll do better but uh just that and also i think the fangio thing i think it sort of came and went like that that trend didn't work out for anybody except for him and then even last year his defense was not uh super special. So anyway,

well, we'll find out very, very soon. Football is almost here, which means you need to listen to check the mic, Steve Palazzolo, Sam Monson, two great friends to me in this show. So very happy to have you guys on and direct to the audience. Cause I know we got a lot of crossover here, direct everybody. That's where you are now. Check the mic 33 33rd team i'm happy for you and uh really appreciate your time man we'll definitely do this again soon yeah thank you matt appreciate all the support and uh as always happy to help you out in any way that we can appreciate it man and work on your pie charts that's the going forward here all right thanks steve you got it