Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - SumerSports analyst Shawn Syed thinks the Vikings have best coaching in the NFL

Episode Date: October 12, 2024

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Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. A first-time guest now joining the show, Sean Syed, the Stats and Scheme podcast with Sumer Sports. You do the podcast, you are the scheme side, the stat side, Tej Seth, who has been on the show before, but Sean Syed, very happy to have you on the show for the first time. What is going on, man? How are you? I'm doing really well. Obviously, the Vikings are doing really well heading into the bye week. And I will say I'm the scheme side of that stats and scheme podcast. But, you know, we all need some stats in our life, too. Oh, that's certainly true. And on the show here, we do try to tie it all together, the analytics and the film as well and the reporting and everything we can do. So every angle covered. And I think it's a really interesting time, Sean, to talk about the scheme of the Minnesota Vikings because

well, it was as ugly as it gets against the New York Jets for the Vikings offense. Overall, the offense under Sam Darnold has been very effective. A lot of explosive plays, a lot of downfield passes to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison from Sam Darnold. I want your big picture on how, from what you have observed, Kevin O'Connell has worked with Sam Darnold to get him to the point where he is operating a five and O national football league team. Give me the big picture. I think Kevin O'Connell, he just absolutely has the juice. He is so, so good at this job. And I'm glad where you can see year over year, him continuing to kind of iterate on this offense,

where it is of course, concentrated through Justin Jefferson as it should be. But Matthew, there's a lot of teams across the league that have a really good wide receiver. That is not just kind of running wide open once or twice a game. So I do think O'Connell does a really good job of getting Jefferson in unique types of motion where now he's going to end up in a stack. Now you can't press him in any sort of way. And whenever you watch a clip of Jefferson running open, obviously a lot of that is because he is such a good route runner, but there are so many times where that is a schemed open play. And then he uses Jefferson as a kind of decoy sometimes, like we think of against the Packers where you get Jalen Naylor kind of going across the field wide open as well. So a really, really good mix there. But coming

into this year, I was really most curious just what the run game would look like. In year one under KOC, you get a lot of that kind of outside zone. It doesn't go anywhere. Year two, you get a lot of gap scheme. It doesn't go anywhere. But now Aaron Jones coming in, it feels like KOC is really comfortable with Aaron Jones there and Jones is playing well. So certainly going into the bi-week, that's an injury that I'm really monitoring. Yeah, no, same over here with Aaron Jones, because he has been such a difference maker. Also getting the trust of Kevin O'Connell in the run game is not easy either. As we see, if a running back goes even for minus one, he's not getting the football again anytime soon. And so I want to,

I want to get further into all this stuff because I think with O'Connell, he's a really fascinating schemer and play caller to kind of pick apart from many different perspectives, but you started it in the Jefferson area. Let's, let's go deeper into that because a lot of the conversation after one or two weeks in the NFL this year was, hey, the average depth of target is way down and quarterbacks are really struggling. And I think we've started to see quarterbacks rebounding a bit. But with O'Connell, he is pushing the ball down the field. And what is reminiscent to me of the way Bruce Arians did,

it feels like a very much downfield and vertical offense, which I was told by Mel Kuyper you weren't allowed to do when you have two safeties. So how is Kevin O'Connell dealing with the quote shells, which I know way more complicated than that. And our friend Cody Alexander freaks out whenever that's brought up, but people know what that means. The defense is playing these umbrellas with deep safeties, but yet it hasn't been a huge problem for Kevin O'Connell to find space deep down the field for these wide receivers. And Kevin O'Connell is a great example of an offensive coordinator who really understands the defense. I think he understands what the goals of the defense are, you know, Hey, well, let's get multiple players to cover Justin Jefferson. And then he understands the specific ways to attack it, whether it's, you know, a few years ago, you think of the Lions game where Jefferson's doubled.

And now Jefferson's kind of running like he looks like he's running a C because he's going in one direction, kind of pushing the double team one way and now breaking off of that. So there's a little bit in the uniqueness of the specific routes that he's running. But what I love about KOC, who he always wants to go for the kill shot, like, does he call too many passes? I don't know. I'll leave that for you to decide, Matthew. But I like that kind of approach because he's going to try and push you down the field and then have an in-breaker kind of underneath it, where it's not just a situation where if Jefferson's not open, the play's kind of dead. There's always a second and a third option kind of in that intermediate area where even if you have the safeties as high as they can possibly be, there's just always a second receiver there.

When I watch some other teams, I think sometimes it's a little frustrating because there's clearly a shot play dialed up and it's either, Hey, we're going to throw this ball 50 down yards down the field, or we're going to check it down. But you have Jalen Aylor kind of go in there. Of course, Jordan Addison, when he's healthy, he is a real, real threat. And it's just, it's really stressful for a defense. Obviously TJ Hawkinson isn't even back yet. I think that KOC does a good job designing and then also combining that with his players and then understanding, okay, this is how a defense wants to deal with us. And you go ahead and give Sam

Darnold the green light. Yeah. And, uh, adjusting to Sam Darnold strengths versus Kirk cousins, I think is an interesting challenge that he faced because they're not the same quarterback where a Kevin or Kirk Cousins, I think Kevin O'Connell dialed up a lot of stuff that was in the intermediate areas for him. And he really dominated with that, especially once Hawkinson got there, as you mentioned, he would pump him the football time and time again, really successfully. The one thing I wonder about Darnold though, he has thrown short stuff screens, which I want to ask you about that and then bombs, but there hasn't really been a lot of success in the intermediate area. Do you think that that's just a product of kind of who Sam Darnold is

as a quarterback, or is that something that is happening schematically or is this the TJ Hawkinson element of it because it has felt a little bit like short or very deep for them so far yeah I do think Donald wants to be a player that pushes the ball down the field and now when you have Justin Jefferson down there you're certainly going to do that when they throw some intermediate throws it feels like like for example the interception against the Jets I think Donald was pretty locked in like that ball was going thereception against the Jets. I think Darnold was pretty locked in. That ball was going there kind of no matter what. So I think sometimes maybe KOC is moving out of that range

just so you get away from some of those situations that Darnold gets a little bit locked up. I do think that could be something where you're attacking down the field with your play-action plays. Most teams are attacking kind of in that intermediate range. It might be something that after the bye week, you see them kind of come out like that, particularly if defenses are really just kind of continuing to back off. But I think at that point, you know, KFC is happy to run it when, when those kinds of safeties are back as well, when at least Aaron

Jones is in there, even though again, his pass rate over expected is really, really high. So I'm interested in, in how O'Connell is going to try and face that where, you know, is it a problem? I don't know. If you continue to create those huge plays, sometimes you don't have to attack every single blade of grass. Yeah. I think that it can only be a problem when there might be a little bit of a lack of feel of what's happening within the context of the game, which is having Darnold push the ball down the field when he's not having a good day doing that, or just even the score and not being able to kind of stick to the run, stick to a short game. That has been, I think my biggest criticism so far, Sean, is that there really isn't this flip switch or switch they could flip when they're leading, which is a good problem to have. Oh no,

you're up 17 and Kevin doesn't know what he's doing. But I do think that as you get leads that are maybe a little tighter in the second half of the season, you got to close out a 10 point lead late, a seven point lead late, but you're going to need four or five first downs here. That's what I want to see them come out of the bye week with a little better answers there. And I don't think it's just Hawkinson. I also think that you can't go a game where Jalen Naylor doesn't get the football. He's just too good. Or when every throw goes deep to Addison, I think they really have to focus on more answers in that underneath area. Yeah. And I think of the drive against the Packers where you're in a sort of got-to-have-it drive.

If you get a field goal, you're pretty much fully locked into the game. Obviously, I think the Vikings dominated that game for the most part, but you run a screen, you run a play action, you try and attack that intermediate area of the field. And even against the Jets, you kind of had to have points on at least one drive. You end up getting a field goal instead of a touchdown. And I really think that Aaron Jones is, his health means a lot there because his ability to really convince the defense

that you're going to be in play action where everyone knows that the Vikings want to throw the ball down the field. So can you do something to convince the defense? And then, you know, just getting heavy sometimes on offense. Obviously your best guys are those three receiver looks, but you throw a second tight end on the field. It doesn't hurt anybody.

You can try and, you know, condense that edge. You obviously Jones is usually bouncing those kinds of runs outside, but Matt, I keep going back and forth in my head. Like I want to see the Vikings play a really, really tight game. They've been, they've been down for like three and a half minutes on the entire season. So like, what am I, what am I even really saying? Like, what do they really need to prove to me? Particularly the last few games were on those drives, you know, you're at least getting points in situations where you really need them. Yeah. I think that's something we've tried to balance on the show as best as possible is when the team is five and O and they have almost never been trailing in the entire season, complaining too much. It sounds a little ridiculous, right? But I also think that when

you look around the NFC, there are some teams that if the Vikings don't keep rolling are right there. They're going to play Detroit coming out of the bye week. Green Bay is going to pick it up. Now, I think after this win with Jordan Love getting more healthy and Washington is dangerous. So this race here is going to be a serious one as we go along. And I think what everyone is asking is just can they keep doing it can Sam Darnold continue to build on what he's done so far with

this offense because when he hasn't had a sample size of a high level performance before then we're going to keep asking that essentially until he's actually done it until he's actually won the NFC or gotten in the playoffs. I think that the conversation is just very different now versus, and we're putting everything under a microscope rather than, Hey, Darnold didn't do a bad, right? I think, I just think that we we've shifted now to viewing this through a kind of, can you be a championship caliber schemer, play caller, quarterback, all those things. And that is a fantastic problem to have. I really do like it when I was, when I watched Donald, look, there's going to be one time a game where you flip a coin and it might

end up in a turnover, but you know, his overall turnover where the play percentage is kind of middle of the league and his overall, his pressure to sack numbers. So when he is pressured, does he actually get sacked? That's kind of the middle of the road too. So that to me is actually positive because I think if you're on the outside looking in and you know, maybe you're not watching too closely, you're like, Hey, Donald throws up one, you know, bad ball a game. What's going to happen. Even then he's kind of the middle of the road in the league. It's not like he's leading the way. And, and every game you're getting five throws where they could be interceptions now against the Packers, you know, you maybe get too many there, but that feels like a situation where, you know, maybe it is sustainable. And obviously so much, so much

credit goes to the defense, but the offense kind of just has to do enough. Like if you're going to be a defense that is really at the top of the league, your offense just kind of has to be, you know, in that middle of the road. And there's certainly in that top 10 range right now and continuing to push where hopefully at the bi-week, you know, you, you really get to put things together because that Lions game is going to be so fun. It's going to be so big. I think it's going to mean so much and, and really be able to tell us a lot. How do you think that we should weigh the Vikings defense in this entire equation? We could talk about that side of it too. But when I look around the NFC, I did mention, there's a lot of teams that are going to be in this same race.

But also, there isn't one offense that is so wildly excellent. Maybe the Lions will get there. They probably will. But so far, they've been maybe a little disappointing by their standards, except when Goff goes, what was it, 18 for 18. But until that point against Seattle, they had been just kind of okay. I wonder if we are in a pocket in NFL history where there's just not the same level of offensive dominance, meaning having a great defense is adding more value than normally it would have in the past.

If that makes sense, like having a great defense while Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers are all at their best doesn't mean as much as maybe it does now when you have very few quarterbacks that you would put in that category. Yeah. And I think certainly, you know, early in the season, but some of the other top defenses kind of by the metrics are like the chargers, the Broncos, the bears, the Titans, you know, those aren't necessarily teams that I think that the Vikings are looking at and saying,

Hey, we're going to play this team kind of in, in the middle of February. So it is such a bonus. It is fantastic because even considering, uh, if you take the commanders, if you take the lions, like you mentioned, you know, like the commander's defense is not particularly good. The lions defense can certainly be had. I think that's going to be a way for the Vikings to be able to win that game. So it gives you so much because it gives your offense more room for error. You know, Donald is not going to play perfect games and he doesn't have to because you have the defense that

even if when the defense doesn't play a perfect game, you know, you're going to get a bunch of Zachs. You know, you're going to create a bunch of pressure and really stress out an offense. And you're forcing offenses to really change the way that they play the game because offenses need to feel like, hey, if we don't get ahead,

this game can get out of hand in a hearty, like that Texans game was ridiculous. Like I, I, I was so interested in seeing that game going in because like, okay, the Texans have CJ Stroud, who is awesome, who actually I think overall he played pretty decent and made some nice throws in that game. But when the Vikings defense can just pounce on you, like Sam Brown has so much more room for error. And you know, even if Kevin O'Connell doesn't take his foot off the gas ever, like literally ever, he's always going to keep pushing in that way. It gives him room for error too, where, you know, certain, certain times, you're just going to turn that kind of early seven point lead into a bam, you're down 21.

And then you've already won the game with Brian Flores' defense. what is most interesting to you? Because watching it develop over training camp, even going back to last year, I just think that the way that he has added layers and layers with the new players, where last year it felt like, all right, I'm kind of working with guys and maximizing their skills and trying to invent pressures wherever I can. But now it seems like if they want to rush for, they can rush for. And Jonathan Grenard is second in the league in pressures at this point, only to Aiden Hutchinson, who's running away with it. But the fact that Grenard is getting five to seven pressures a game by himself,

and they can mix and match all these different rushers, but they don't have to send seven rushers over and over and they don't have to send seven rushers over and over and they don't have to drop eight. They can actually do everything in between. I think it's just gotten way more complicated this year. Yeah, I am so happy with this defense because going into it, I've watched some extra film from last year

and think, you know, is this a unit that is just fun or are they good? Like it was sometimes hard because like you said, you get so extreme into the either heavy blitz or dropping everyone out because you have to. Like I do think Flores did a really cool job

doing that last year. But then this year, like they're just good. Like they can play you straight up. And I'm so, so happy to see that because that stresses out an offense so much more. Of course, against the Jets,

you know, I think they like wadded up and you get seven guys on the line for a few different reasons because I think the Jets had struggles with that particular kind of look against the Broncos in the game before. And then they did in this one as well. But it's like some, I just think if you take some of these players,

like you put Josh Mattel on another team, I don't know what his role looks like, but he is like perfect. It is like a scalpel, like how perfect the fit is here. So I really, really love that because even against the Jets, you can just play them straight up. You're going to create pressure and you still

have like, you know, the little kind of twists and tweaks, whether it's, Hey, we're stunting this way. And now a linebacker is going to blitz and he's just going to get a free run at the running back. So it's a great example on offense and on defense where you can build year over year because so many teams across the league just the turn that happens for coaches it sucks i hate to watch it because you don't get to watch kind of things translate year to year but then you bring in brian flores who i mean give that guy a blank check like i need to see him in year three i just want to keep on seeing him get so much at us i think the particular spot is like the linebacker spot uh between ivan pace between cash and like it's just

a like a good unit between those two. And they're able to erase areas of the middle of the field where we talk about how great it is if offenses can attack it. When the defense is able to just stop that, what are you going to do against these guys? Hold on. Let me silence my phone real quick so I can tell you that us days are back at U.S. Cellular again.

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during the show. They're all about us days deals like $1,200 off any phone and four plus $400 off any tablet terms apply. Visit us cellular.com for details. Right. I asked Kevin O'Connell today if he could put his finger on one thing that has taken this defense to the next level. And his answer was basically that they now have so many high IQ

and so experienced players that everybody could step up at a different time, but they could also ask them to do so many different things. And you mentioned Metellus. You could almost go player by player and talk about how valuable each guy is to this operation. But I think that the real cherry on top to the defense that it wouldn't be the same without is Stefan Gilmore. What did you think of that signing when it happened versus what it has looked like through the first five weeks of the season? I think the signing made sense in that

the Vikings clearly had to address the cornerback position. I'm not going to pretend like I was unbelievably excited about it. Like you, you had no idea kind of what you're getting from Gilmore at this point in his career. Of course I can think of, you know, plenty of great memories that kind of across multiple teams, like when he's playing for the Patriots, but I'm,

I'm surprised that it has ended up this positive where, I mean, Gilmore literally won you the game against the jets kind of coming up with that interception. And now the cornerbacks for Minnesota, of course, last year, you know,

I think part of the reason why they got so funky on the, on the kind of front end with the blitzes is because they weren't particular comp particularly confident on the back end but I mean they're getting good play there and they're always going to have safeties kind of over the top so it takes a little bit of stress off the cornerbacks but it's hard not to feel really excited where going into the season you're like hey that's a spot where offenses have to be able to attack. When you're looking at everything, you're not going to be able to figure everything out up front. I think that can bind and just keeps on finding ways to create turnovers. So find an isolated one-on-one on the outside and go take it. And it felt like, you know, Aaron Rogers was trying to get to some of that against Minnesota,

but now if Gilmore is kind of playing well, there's just no holes in the defense. Right. They targeted him 14 times, which had not happened early in the season because it seemed like opposing teams were thinking that's the defensive MVP. We need to go after Byron Murphy jr. Instead. And I believe Rogers only completed seven of those passes out of the 14, the interception at the end.

Byron Murphy only allowed something like 53 yards into his coverage we're kind of doing a stats and scheme here thing but um I I found it really uh interesting how they've rotated a little bit with Byron Murphy Jr. and Shaq Griffin where they have limited the amount of snaps that Griffin takes but they've created more of a true nickel package which they didn't have last year they just said hey Josh Met patella sorry pal you've pretty much got to play nickel corner and it's going to be you know caleb evans on the outside and and byron murphy a lot too that's been a big change for them and i feel like there's been a trickle down of you have a corner that people are afraid of throwing against because they know he could pick off a pass and cause problems there he's in the

right position he reads wide receivers he reads pick off a pass and cause problems there. He's in the right position. He reads wide receivers. He reads route combinations extremely well. And so now you're looking to other places, but if the weak links are Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy, you're in pretty good shape as a defense. And I think that that's really shown. I wonder what you think of. Someone asked me this on one of our live stream q and a's not too long ago about the combination between o'connell and brian flores and if there is a better offensive defensive mind combination in the nfl you might have a better sense of this than i do but my answer leaned toward no like that i couldn't think of a quite a better outside of andy reed and steve spagnolo is the one that you would have to go to because you know super bowls and so forth so they

haven't done that yet we're not putting the crown on them yet but i think that coaching drives so much in the nfl and with these two at the helm as we talk about whether they could take five and oh and turn it into something really special. I think that coaching is the difference maker. But am I am I leaning too far on just this is the only team that I cover? No, I think that that is really right. Because when you look at it kind of top to bottom and say, OK, reading Spagnuolo, I think that is a really, really strong combination.

I think that when you look at like Ben Johnson, Aaronaron glenn i do think that is you know a pretty good combination i think you obviously think of who the top offensive play callers like kyle shannon i don't think that you know nick sorensen the defensive coordinator is nearly as good as brian flores then it's like okay now we're stretching it's like well if anthony weaver is really good in miami with mike mcdaniel like is that a situation where it's good like no like the v Vikings are just, they have the best combination, which I kind of like, cause I saw some kind of like maybe a tweet or two about it a few weeks ago. And I was like, that can't be right.

Like, it just doesn't make full sense, but it's absolutely, I think the situation that you would want. And again, I think there is a big, big benefit to KOC has iterated on this offense. This is his third season being able to do it. And Flores gets, you know, a repeat with the defense. And so I'm sure that there,

and there should be just calls for Brian Flores to be a head coach. But I think if I was, you know, rooting for the Vikings, of course I want him to stay. Because as you mentioned, you know, now you're creating different packages where like that nickel package, you know, now you can let Josh Rantelis like play

in kind of an inside linebacker spot on some of these blitz packages. So your guys are no longer the one-on-one level. Like you're not learning the basics. You are learning ultra specific things. And then when you're troubleshooting in game, now you're going back on things that, Hey,

we did this in week four a year ago. Like that is so, so hard because we talk about spags in Kansas city. I mean, the guy's called so many plays with a lot of those players. Of course, they have attrition on the back end, but he has seen so many things with this specific unit. So when you're constantly solving problems

with the same guys, now you got your third string cornerback who's like, oh yeah, I remember that check. We used to do that all the time. So I think it's just a fantastic situation for Minnesota. Yeah, we're always talking about adjustments and things like that throughout a season. And I think that the difference maker, and I guess we're going to see this in Washington

because Cliff Kingsbury has gotten some quarterbacks out to hot starts before, and then they haven't sustained. And with Kevin O'Connell in year one, the Vikings did fall off in the second half of the year, but I think that was a little more just regression happening from a crazy eight and one start that took all sorts of fumbles and missed field goals and everything else by their opponents. But what do you think may pick which either side of the ball comes to mind first? What do you think opponents are going to change here? Because you know Detroit's going to be ready to play them. You know that McVay's going to be ready to play them. Those are their first two opponents out of the by Detroit and Los Angeles Rams. What are teams going to look at from the Vikings five and oh start and say, all right, we're going to find

a way to deal with that. I think against the Vikings defense, like, you know, that they're going to do all these kinds of crazy rotations. They're going to end up in kind of cover two type looks a lot of the time. So you just kind of have to run your cover two beaters no matter what, like, you know, it's going to land in that way. Now the Vikings did kind of drop to a bunch of cover three against the jets. And maybe they knew that they wanted to kind of undo their own tendency, but you just have to find a way to isolate those guys on the outside. I understand, like, I do think Gilmore is having a good year, but I want to see teams like kind of the back half of that Packers game. You have to be willing to take shots on this defense. I understand. Like we're going to watch Harrison Smith and camp by and just keep on dropping

further back and further back and further back. But if you're not willing to take some of those shots, you're just not going to be able to win because I think about it for the lions and they may be just a separate example. Like the lions should run the ball a ton because I think about it for the Lions and they may be just a separate example. Like the Lions should run the ball a ton because I think that the Lions will be able to win up front. But Harrison Phillips is playing so, so well. Like the Vikings are able to win up front. So where last year, like we think of the Eagles game kind of early on last year with the Eagles just kind of run you out of the gym, but you're not able to do that.

So I want to watch teams do things like, hey, let's get to the line really, really quick and kind of snap it before we even get into our whole entire cadence so you can't do some of those kind of like funky just shifts and kind of coverage twists on the back end and then just like make the game smaller like make it this kind of isolated matchup as much as you can because someone's got to be able to figure it out i keep i keep thinking about who is it going to be again it might just be hey the lions can just run on you and you're going to have a hard time doing it. But I think Ben Johnson, certainly he had a good time against the Vikings a little bit last year where other

teams didn't. So on the offensive side, it feels more like, Hey, you know, can you have Sam Donald kind of continue to play well? Can you continue to get things from the running game? Is Aaron Jones healthy on defense? It almost feels like more fun because we haven't seen it yet this year. So I want to know who's going to do it. Yeah. When it comes to the offensive side, I also wonder if there will be teams that really dare the Vikings to beat them with the run game, because there is not a single Kevin O'Connell game that has been called in the Vikings era since he started here that they've won with the run game. I mean, I remember in 2019 where Kirk Cousins threw 10 passes against the Atlanta Falcons. They get a win that you're never going to see that from Kevin O'Connell, even then with these huge leads,

having close to a 50, 50 run pass, he seems to be uncomfortable with at times. So if you're another team, do you drop the linebackers? Do you say, don't worry about these play actions and try to figure that out? Because I think that in 2020, when Gary Kubiak was doing a lot of the same stuff, deep crossers, especially that at one point teams started to say, you know what? If Delvin cook gets five yards of carry, he gets five yards of carry. And we're just not going to bite with our linebackers. We're going to drop them back anyway. And Cook had a great season, but the passing game,

it just didn't feel the same all the time because opponents kind of figured that out a little bit. I am curious about if something similar starts to happen here, where somebody says, we're going to keep our lighter personnel on. Even if you bring in Josh Oliver, just run.

We'll see if you can actually stick to it because he never has before i i feel like the the week 12 game in chicago against the bears that's kind of one i have circled because i think the bears defense has been doing a good job they play light kind of over and over so it feels like they're kind of in the mold of like that's exactly what you should do i think like go ahead kevin like show us you can kind of beat us with the run over and over. Cause when I think about the lions, like lines are going to play a ton of man coverage. I think that Kevin O'Connell is going to have his kind of man coverage beaters kind of over and over. And when I look at the jets game, like the jets were able to have success because they have like the top cornerback duo in

the league. And DJ Reed just had an awesome, awesome game outside. Because when I was watching it back, I was like, you know, like, I don't really hate, like, a lot of these darn old decisions. There's, like, one or two where I was like, hey, you know, I'm not the best one, but you're throwing into some of those tight windows and I think you should because, like, those are your guys. So I'm just not really sure, like, what defense is going to be

able to do that successfully. And of course, I mean, because the Rams are an example where the Rams defense, I mean, that doesn't scare me if I'm the Vikings, right? Like, certainly on the offensive side, Stafford is, of course, I mean, because the Rams are an example where the Rams defense, I mean, that doesn't scare me if I'm the Vikings, right? Like certainly on the offensive side, Stafford is, of course, is playing awesome again, but there you have a lot of guys injured there. So part of me is like, hey, wait and see who's going to do it. And I think it's interesting kind of coming into this year.

It's like, wait, now I have the Bears game circled of kind of all teams here. Yeah, I think if you're an opponent, your main thing is, how do you get Sam Darnold rattled in the pocket to the point where he's trying to do a little bit too much? That's where a lot of the turnover worthy plays have come. It hasn't been really inaccurate throws so much as just not the greatest decisions all the time. The interception against green Bay, you're in the red zone. You got a chance to kick a field goal and you're throwing a jump ball to your running back who's 5'9". Like this is not really the best decision. And in Houston, he tries to flip a ball to Aaron Jones when you really just got to eat that. And as long as they're hitting on big plays, you can live and die with that,

sort of like a better Jameis Winston version, but that could go to the side real quick. And I think that's what everybody is maybe walking on eggshells about with Darnold is if he does the turnover thing, it is going to be a problem because there's no scheme there. There's no, well, you could just do this with him. If he's turning the ball over and taking too many risks,

then that's just going to happen with Sam Darnold. And that's who he's been the ball over and taking too many risks, then that's just going to happen with Sam Darnold. And that's who he's been in the past. I wonder how many teams you think in the entire national football league will finish with better records than the Vikings. I know you're a scheme guy, not a predictions guy, maybe not a gambling guy, but I'm just curious how many, how many you think, because the hardest thing for us here now analyzing this team is to go, well, where do you set the bar? I've put it at 12 wins. I don't think they are going to have a perfect second half ish of the

season or three quarters of the season. The rest of the way that puts you at seven and five, the rest of the season. I think that's realistic. If not, maybe even a little better, but when you start talking about 13 wins or more, you go, okay, well, that's, it's kind of absurd, but like how high should the bar be set?

How many teams do you think could end up with as good or better of a record than this team? Look, I think 12 is kind of the right spot to at least set it. And then you start thinking about, okay, well, how do we end up going over here where the chiefs to me feel like an example of okay the chiefs i probably

wouldn't bet against just having a better record kind of just because they're the chiefs even though they have so many injuries and you know the chiefs maybe you could say hey they play a little bit of a tougher schedule but thinking of some of the other top teams like the texans i have a lot of concerns about the texans particular in the run game like how many times you know they are really relying on cj shroud to do so so much. Nico Collins is hurt there. The Ravens are coming along, but you know, they're kind of two games back in the NFC. I think it really just depends on if the Lions beat you twice, then I think they're a team that can be able to do it. Are the commanders going to continue and end the season with three

or four losses? You know, I lean towards not. So at the end of the day, it really feels like just the Chiefs. And then, you know, can you split with the lions and then kind of maintain there? Because I just think it's, it's like the fundamentals are there. And then you of course mentioned, Hey, what if Sam Darnold has some of these turnovers, like their success rate numbers, their down to down consistency numbers are still very good. Like, it's not like they're just relying on these explosive plays. When you look at the Packers, some of their numbers so far this season, obviously Jordan Love hasn't played the entire time, but they're like a, they're relying on explosive plays where their success rate is certainly a lot lower.

So if they were a team where, Hey, they're only creating explosive plays and they're not able to kind of just stay ahead of the chain. Sometimes obviously Kevin O'Connell is going to, you're going to see your second and third and 10, just kind of because of some of those shot plays going incomplete. But at this point, it's hard for me to think of someone outside of the lines beating you or the Chiefs just kind of cruising the rest of the way. Do you think that San Francisco and or Philadelphia will get it back together? Because they've really owned the conference, it feels like, for the past few years.

That's an awesome question. I think that the 49ers, i have less concerns about because i think brock purdy is actually just playing super super well now they had uh the game against the cardinals they lost last week they were one for six in the red zone to me a little bit of that is you know i like i love kashian more than i love anyone but his red zone offense i think sometimes leaves just a touch to be desired drive see missing christian mccaffrey there on the defensive side of the ball like i like i'm just i'm fine with their defense Like it's obviously not going to be a kind of a top unit, but I have faith in their offense probably more than the Eagles where the Eagles are like a

vanilla ice cream. And Matthew, I love vanilla ice cream. I don't want anyone to think I don't love vanilla ice cream, but their offense is, is really kind of just like standard stuff. And their defense is not good. They have Vic Fangio, who I'm just a huge fan of, and I think has done so many good things, but I know Vikings fans. I know people that'll listen, uh, remember the Adonital days and it is a lot better than the Adonital days in Philadelphia. I will say that, but I think they force, or they have more hurdles just because their defense is probably worse than their offense. I think isn't as good. So like I have Minnesota circled, I have Detroit circle. I feel like those are the teams that I really want to continue to look at.

I think San Francisco is going to end up winning the West. I don't think the commanders are going to be like, Hey, we're going to win the Superbowl type team. So, you know, really whatever way you look at it, like the Vikings are a top three at worst team kind of in this conference.

What do we do with our hands, Sean? It's a very weird, a very strange world. How, how good did you think this team was going to be before the season i had them at nine and eight which i thought i was being people were saying oh man you're kind of being a little rosy here like a local homer by having them nine and

eight because that was what two and a half games i think two and a half maybe three and a half no two and a half ahead of uh where vegas had them um but now sitting here at uh five and oh it's like oh this was uh way better than i think anybody expected it's certainly better than i expected and i and i'm like i put myself in the kind of uh like not donald truther but like i could see it and that i think was for me really a vote in kevin o'connell's offense i was concerned about the defense just thinking about some of the ways that they were attacked last year. And I just wasn't sure how all these pieces were going to fit. And I do think the NFC North is the best division in football.

I think it's shown that way. They're the only division with all four teams above 500. I thought the Packers were certainly like a pick that I would have picked over the Vikings. I thought the lions were, I thought the lines would aggress maybe a little bit harder, but I think that they've shown a lot of staying power thus far. So like a huge over achievement.

And Matthew, now it feels like, hey, like, is this your chance? Like, is this your year? Like, do you kind of push more chips into the table? Which it's easy for me to kind of say that from the outset, obviously you want to conserve resources for the future. But I'm glad that we kind of talked about just, well, what other teams do you think are better overall? Because I don't know, you look around, you see like a lot of attrition kind of at the top. I think that, you know, the Ravens have struggled a little bit.

The Chiefs, yeah, have a bunch of injuries. The Texans maybe aren't going to be as good as you thought. The Lions are obviously going to be there. The 49ers are kind of banged up. Like, man, the Vikings can be the best team in football. Do you have to make a trade? Do you want to really kind of sacrifice some certain things for a big season? I think the answer is yes. And part of it is, uh, I was just watching some Jaden Daniels and my thought was that's, they're going to spend money and they're going to put other things around him and they're going to get a defense and that's going to be very scary. And the other thing is too, that Caleb Williams has started to look like the Caleb Williams that was expected. And if you go into next year, they might end up with a JJ McCarthy is their quarterback. I still expect that to happen right

now, but you could be talking about other franchises doing the same thing that you're doing, which is spending a lot around young quarterbacks right now, young quarterbacks just don't win the super bowl. So as good as Washington is not likely that Daniels will get them deep into the playoffs. Same with Chicago and this division. They probably don't make the playoffs. You kind of do have to do it now. You kind of do have to make a trade. So let's, let's end on that conversation. let's say i gave you the first round pick uh quacey calls you up he says uh sean i love your work and uh i got a first round pick what do i do with it who should i trade it for what position should i get where do i need to strengthen my roster even outside of a first round pick i think you can you know solidify things kind of on the interior i was thinking like hey like every team every team needs to trade for an edge rusher.

But like these guys kind of don't. Like they were able to kind of manufacture things with Grenard playing awesome and Ben Ginkle there. Like if you find the star defensive end, maybe. To me, it feels like cornerback would be the spot just because that's a place that I keep thinking like that is where teams are going to kind of attack you over and over. Like, I don't know.

Can you get another maybe a guard? Like you're not going to switch out your right guard at the start of the season you're assuming hockinson's back you're not going to kind of flip for a tight end so part of me feels like hey you know i would assume they stay packed or stand packed uh unless they get some kind of good offer if i was to choose one spot probably corner but even then it's like man their scheme is kind of complicated like are you able to kind of bring a new guy and i could see you know well case you're probably not going to kind of flip a bunch of assets for a running back.

I think he's maybe a little bit smarter than that. Maybe a smarter than some teams as they kind of do it. So a really nice spot to be in. I do think a lot depends on how comfortable are you with JJ McCarthy? And it kind of is tough that you haven't got a ton of looks at him because if you're saying, Hey, we are set at this quarterback position for at least next year,

maybe the next two years maybe the next three years that really lets you kind of push things and then you know rookie quarterbacks are quarterbacks on their rookie contracts don't get don't win the super bowl they get to the super bowl at the very very least so you know you hope that minnesota is able to have kind of sustained sustained success because like this is sam donald's season here you know i assume that they they turn it over next year And like we thought about two years ago, it's like the competitive rebuild. This isn't a competitive rebuild. They're just being competitive. Yeah, suddenly. And I think you never really know for sure. And the way that Quasey put it before

the season was essentially, if certain things happen, we know we could be really good. And through five games, all those things have happened. The defense has been as good as they would have dreamed. And Sam Darnold has been mostly on point and has outperformed expectations. I will throw my plan for Kweisi at you. I actually would spend resources on the running back position because as great as Aaron Jones is, they just don't seem to be able to run the same stuff with Ty Chandler. And if they can't run the same stuff, I don't think Darnold is as effective. And also you need someone who's not getting negative runs, which I think Chandler does a lot more than Jones. Now I'm not saying give away the first round pick for Tony Pollard or something, but, but

if there's an offer there to be made, that is a chips to the middle of the table. Jay Ajayi type of trade in 2017 because the running back is very valuable here at this position and defensive tackle is the other spot. Harris Phillips has been great. Tillery and Bullard are kind of journeyman guys who have been solid for them. But if Jeffrey Simmons is available or someone who is really nasty on the inside, if this team created a lot of consistent pressure from their DTs, I don't know what anyone would do against them. I agree with you on corner. Maybe there's a JC Horn trade potentially in there.

But I think that looking at all their metrics right now, looking at how this goes, don't wait around. Don't even wait until the trade deadline. Start making phone calls now and see if there is some interest because I think that they should be looking at that way. And if it doesn't work out and they move it over to JJ McCarthy next year, well, you got a lot of cap space to work with because he is on the rookie contract. I like that you mentioned the defensive tackle position. I think that's a spot where you can just get a guy in there to play really, really fast just like if like if I'm on the outside looking in yeah I want to play in that system as a defensive tackle like we're stunting a bunch we're getting a bunch of free looks we're getting kind of on the outside of a guard kind of in that way so I do really really

like that and I just think it's so important like things switch so fast in the NFL like Kirk Hudson is no longer in Minnesota right right? Sam Darnold is playing quarterback. McCarthy's not even there. And I think about the teams going into the season where I just assume, like, the 49ers are going to be kind of awesome, how many injuries they have. And now they kind of step back just in a little bit.

Again, I think they're going to be fine. But even for the Lions, like, I don't know. Like, if Ben Johnson leaves, like, what does that offense kind of look like overall? Of course, you don't have to worry about this year, but they're just so, so few times. Where, like, two years ago, at that point, I think, I feel like Vikings fans were pretty clear.

It's like, hey, this is actually not a time to kind of put all your chips in because the defense was just not that good. This is not a top 10 defense. This is like a top three defense. Like, if they were an average defense that was overachieving with, like, high-end Sam Darnold play in a small sample,

I think we would kind of know, like, hey, you know, you're playing really, really well, but you can't just kind of burn it all. You're still kind of building that bridge for McCarthy, but you just do not get this chance. You do not, like you've mentioned, the division is going to continue to be really, really good. So I want to see them take a shot. Yeah.

I mean, I think, um, just also when it, when it comes to this, what they did with TJ Hawkinson can be repeated, which is to trade for someone that you extend and you end up keeping. And then that becomes, well, you kind of use your draft pick on that. Not exactly a one-to-one comparison, but getting star players with draft picks is a good idea. Okay. Last thing before the season, you did a really cool article where you watched all the XFL kickoffs. And I saw everybody share this article.

It was great work. And you studied them and what worked for the XFL. What has been your opinion about how teams have handled the NFL kickoff? The Vikings, this new version of it, the Vikings have done nothing with it. They've just basically been like, please don't kick it to us. Just kick it out of the back. We're not going to do this. And 95% of the time they've been kicking out of the back as well. But there are some teams who have experimented with it quite a bit. How do you feel that it has been implemented into the NFL? The kickoff was, it is interesting at the very least.

You know, I always say the word interesting. Is that good? Is that bad? I don't know. But for the kickoff particularly, I thought that they were just like some slight rule changes that I wish they kind of would have had, where if you have a touchback that goes to the 35 instead of the 30,

I think that really would incentivize teams in a different way. If I was on a team and i was kicking off like i guess the kind of numeral numerical ideal is like you kick to kind of the front half of the end zone you kind of force them to return it but there's just such a downside to those sorts of big returns so even or you have a team like the packers who they're kicking it in bounds kind of are like at a really really high clip or the saints kind of like to as well and they will stop you before the 30 yard line just the the incentives are just kind of too out of whack there. So I don't really

blame teams necessarily. Like the Rams are one that they're just not going to kick the ball in bounds. And Hey, you know, that gives you a little bit extra kind of practice time in another way going into this season. I really wanted to see teams kind of like, like bounce the ball kind of inside the 20 yard line and kind of get it going around. Some teams have done that and have had some really, really cool examples of that. brandon aubrey for the cowboys just like dude's a magician when he's kicking the ball so overall like i think that was my hype for the kickoff maybe a little bit too high did i get a little bit too into it i would say probably yes but i think that they're gonna make maybe one or two extra tweaks i think will hopefully force

teams like i can't see them ending up with the 35 yard touchback i think that they're going to make maybe one or two extra tweaks that I think will hopefully force teams. Like I can't see them ending up with a 35 yard touchback. I think that probably gives the offense too much of an advantage, but Hey, if you're saying the difference between the 30 yard line and the 26, I do think that is a real difference in terms of how many expected points you're going to have on a drive. But I'm just like at this point, kind of fine with teams that are,

you know, kicking towards the middle of the end zone. Like, Hey, is this guy going to kind of play himself a little bit and come out of the end zone now i will say it's kind of bothering me is sometimes that teams will take the the kick out in these like end of game situations where it's like i don't know like are you really practicing this that much where you would prefer to kind of have this kickoff where the return average isn't

particularly high instead of just like letting your offense have the ball at the 30 yard line so overall i think an interesting note but matth, I'm not gonna lie. You know, there are times when after a touchdown, I just go to the bathroom and you know, I know I'll come back after the kickoff is done. Well, you know, I was thinking that this year, cause that is the way of the press box as well when covering games. So, okay. Touchdown, they're going to kick it out of the back. So if you want to go get a snack or something or use the restroom then go do it during the kickoff and i was hoping that this would make life harder on me because i wanted the return of the great returner they were celebrities on the team they were notable the dante halls the josh cribs they were fan favorites and some of the most exciting players

i just don't think we're ever getting it back uh If you're a team that's down a couple of scores, maybe you kick it around and try to get it to pinball a little bit and see if the other team will screw up and give you some momentum, but otherwise hasn't really changed the entire dynamic. So I'm glad they tried, but it's probably dead forever. RIP. There's not a whole lot that you and I can really do about it. But this is really great, Sean. The Stats and Scheme podcast with you and the brilliant Tej Seth. Is it Syed Schemes on Twitter? Is that the Twitter handle? Yep, that's the Twitter handle.

And every Monday morning, I wrote the Monday morning mashup over on Sumersports.com. If you just want to watch the Vikings, I'm not going to blame you. Just read the article. You'll know everything you need to know about through the rest of the league. Very good. Great stuff. Well, great to have you on the show

for the very first time. We will absolutely do it again. Thanks for all your time, man. Thanks so much, Matt.