Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - SumerSports' Sam Bruchhaus analyzes J.J. McCarthy's future

Episode Date: December 5, 2025

Matthew Coller opens the show up reacting to Justin Jefferson's comments about his frustration after Seattle, and J.J. McCarthy's comments about his mentality heading into the final month of the season. Then SumerSports' Sam Bruchhaus joins the show to analyze McCarthy's future as a quarterback in the NFL. Then, Manny Hill joins the show for our weekly segment picking the remainder of the Vikings' schedule. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar, here, the show, of course, presented by Fanduil. And coming up in just a couple of minutes, Sam Brookhouse from Sumer Sports. And I talk about the future of the Vikings franchise and how they should approach it from a front office perspective. Also, Manny Hill picks the schedule every Thursday, no matter what the Vikings record. but I just got back from TCO Performance Center. A couple of very interesting things there that I want to bring you from J.J. McCarthy and from Justin Jefferson. But first, some very surprising news for most of this week.

We have talked about the Washington commanders bringing Marcus Marietta to Minnesota and Adam Schaefter reported today that Jaden Daniels is now on track to start. and today Daniels practiced in full for the commanders when he was limited on Wednesday. I figured, okay, well, that makes sense for him to ramp up. But would you really want to bring him back against the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium? But a full practice and Schefter saying that he is in line to start. We may be seeing another battle of 2024 drafted quarterbacks in Jaden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy and that may change what we've been talking about all week of, you know, here's the

line for the game and things like that. That may be a little bit different. The odds of the Vikings winning now with Washington's quarterback back in the mix, potentially. So I guess we'll have to find that out. He might be listed as questionable going into the game. We shall see. At least that could make for a more exciting viewing experience if Jaden Daniels is back. I don't know that it changes a whole lot for either team considering their three and nine. The Vikings are four and eight. But if you're sitting down for a Sunday to watch Vikings commanders, I think you'd like to see the more exciting of the quarterback battle.

And I certainly would like to see Jane Daniels play against Brian Flores' defense. So we shall see. And maybe the Vikings will not get their close look at a potential 2026 quarterback option. We'll have to find out. But on Justin Jefferson, something that I have talked about for a very long time, going back to Jefferson's contract extension talks when a lot of the outside world was coming up with different trade proposals and where can they send Justin Jefferson. And then, of course, he signed his long term extension with the Vikings. And throughout this year, it has felt like every single time the Vikings have a tough game, which has been a lot of times. the thing that follows in terms of a discussion is a bunch of little graphics on the bottom

of TV stations that say, where will Justin Jefferson ask for a trade or when will he ask for a trade? When will Jefferson ask out? And then him missing the media session after the game against the Seattle Seahawks clearly out of frustration. That just ramped that up and turned up the dial on the conversations about Jefferson potentially asking out, but I've always brought up that Jefferson is, is different. And I don't mean that he will never reach a point of frustration or that he will never get to a spot where he would say, all right, I've tried, I've done everything I could. I think that that's possible for just about anyone, no matter how classy, no matter how committed to an organization. If you show enough ineptitude, then eventually your star player

will grow frustrated. But I think Justin Jefferson, especially since he signed his contract extension, especially since, you know, he took the captaincy and took that very seriously as someone who really speaks for the team and speaks to the team now, as opposed to being a little more shy early in his career has put the onus on himself and to, you know, guide the franchise and to be a face of the franchise, which I think he's taken very, very seriously. And we saw that again today at TCO Performance Center, where he talked about, you know, not speaking after the game and also was asked in a couple of different ways about where he stands with the future of this franchise. And in typical Jefferson fashion, I think made his way

through those answers in a way to say that he is not comfortable with where they're at, but is also not going into the general manager's office and flipping a table and telling them that he's demanding to be traded. So here is what Jefferson had to say when he was asked about the situation after the game in Seattle, just coming out of that game, and then about his view of where the franchise is at. Where was your head at coming out of that one? Yeah, just frustrated on the game. Coming out with zero points is never something that I'm satisfied with.

We lost, you know, and obviously I just feel like it's the same thing. You know, I'm going to be sitting there telling y'all guys the same exact, you know, thing that I've said for the past couple weeks. You know, the offense needs to get better and, you know, we need to focus up and execute and all of the things that we've been saying the whole season. I just wanted to, I knew I was going to talk to y'all guys today, so just, you know, the frustration and the emotions, you know, definitely, definitely was high after the game. Just not. Six years, probably going to be two playoff appearances.

Can you describe your confidence level in this current group, not only getting you back to the playoffs, but keeping you there? Yeah, that's definitely been a difficult thing to really overcome. Obviously, I want to be in the playoff race. I want to be, you know, competing for a Super Bowl. You know, it's just obviously it's a big team. You know, it's a lot of moving parts that has to go into a winning team in order for you to have a Super Bowl. There's 31 other teams that's, you know, trying to strive for this same goal. So it's difficult at times and, you know, it's obviously right now it's not the best time.

But last year it was a great run. We had a great season. And prior years before that was, you know, great seasons for me. So I just got to continue on to the goal that we were trying to strive for. And obviously, getting our offenses, offense better is definitely one of the main priorities. Getting you there, getting you back there? Of course. I will always trust this group and trust my ability to go out there and help us in any type of way.

So it's just all about us just sticking together. not really listening to the outside noise. There you go. Justin Jefferson, articulating quite well there how he feels and that he's not happy, he's extremely frustrated, extremely upset, but also, as you heard at the end, said that he trusts this group to get them back to where they were. And I think from Jefferson's perspective,

him, well, put it this way, keeping it in perspective that it was just last year that they were winning 14 games and in the playoff race and things like that. And it hasn't been that long since they have been out of that conversation. Now, does that mean, you know, that the outlook does not have some serious murkiness to it? I'm sure that Jefferson, who is a very sharp individual, knows that it does going into the future. And I'm sure that behind the scenes, he wants answers about the quarterback situation for next year, or will at the end of the season when he sits down for his exit meeting and things like that.

There is still five games to go, so we'll see what happens at that point. But if they do continue to lose, I am absolutely certain that Jefferson is going to want straightforward answers about how they are going to get the offense back on track. Because as he said, it is a big team. There is only so much that one person can do if the quarterback cannot get him the football. But I think that the folks who consistently bang this drum of just a Jefferson's going to demand a trade, Jefferson's frustrated, you know, get him out of Minnesota and things like that. I don't think that they are keeping that perspective either, that this is a team that has always been in the mix. Now, they haven't won in the playoffs with Jefferson, but they have always been in the mix and they have found solutions and they have, you know, bounced back after difficult years like 2023 was.

really tough. And then 2024, Jefferson has a great season. And I think you hear that in his answers when he's talking about it like every year can be a different thing unless, I don't know. I mean, you would say unless you're Kansas City, but they're fighting for their playoff lives. Buffalo's not in first place. So even the best teams this year who were great last year have regressed. It's just the point with Jefferson is that it's exhausting, I think, for everybody, for Vikings fans, for us who cover Justin Jefferson, for I'm sure for him and his family and everybody who even just wants to turn on the TV and watch about sports

and always having to hear when the team doesn't perform that he's going to want out. And it almost feels like at times there's this push toward do it, Justin, do it, tell him, tell him, get the heck out of there. Or maybe it's just mindless content because it's, easy to do every time a wide receiver is not having the best time and it always moves the needle to paint a wide receiver as a diva. And I think that that's probably the part that bothers me, not front office discussions of whether they might trade a player or whether a player is happy

with his situation and contract. I think what really bothers me is it always feels like as part of this discussion, whether it's intentional or not, probably not, he ends up getting painted as oh yeah he's going to go full diva he's going to be like digs or like whatever other wide receiver from the past and of course there's a hundred wide receivers who have not been that way but tarrell owens and ochosynco and as i mentioned you know digs has been that way uh at times in the past oh well if because a handful of these guys act that way every receiver gets painted with the same broad brush and it feels like they're doing it to just and that's where I feel like it's very unfair. Like, we will have that discussion as well as they have to

get it on track next year because they're facing a situation with his contract and with his career that could be a crossroads. That is a reality. That is a truth. But when you present it in a way that makes it sound like, well, this guy's demanding out, he's throwing helmets or whatever, which he didn't do, or look at him sitting on the Gatorade, oh, upset. It's like, well, where was Brian O'Neill sitting? Was he upset? It just always seems to be great content for people to kind of push that narrative about someone.

And then you listen to Jefferson talk. Has anyone been a better teammate to J.J. McCarthy and a better leader for his team this than Justin Jefferson to go through all of this and be asked every single week the same questions about the offense when he can't throw the ball to himself and yet this is how he's handled it and he's still being painted with that light. That's where I don't like it. I think that discussion is valid eventually, but when it also presents him in sort of that way as that's who he is when it's not. I think that's really unfair. So one more thing, Justin Jefferson after he talked, J.J. McCarthy spoke to us as well. And the theme of the week for

J.J. McCarthy is simplification. They're dumbing it down, as Aaron Jones tried not to say, but then sort of said anyway. They are, it's been put a lot of different ways, reducing the inventory. We're using Thesaurus.com at this point to figure out all the different ways we can say that the offense won't be as complicated. And there's a lot of different interpretations. I've noticed, and I was having a lot of talks with my colleagues at TCR. Performance Center today about how everyone is interpreting the messaging from the coaching staff to J.J. McCarthy and also to the outside world that now we have simplified the offense. And the way I've looked at it is maybe a little different than the way some folks have looked

at it. Some people have said, look, they're admitting that they put too much on his plate. That's not my interpretation. My interpretation is we've done all we can do. in terms of coaching your techniques and fundamentals and feet and eyes. There's five weeks left in the season. We just can't spend any more time on that. We've done everything we can do. And now we're going to take this down to the screws. And if you can't operate it in its simplest form,

then we really are solidified in where we stand with you as a quarterback. Here's what J.J. McCarthy had to say about the sort of reduction of conversation about his fundamentals for this week. It's hard to answer that question. I would say a little, a lot of the mentality has changed for sure. You know, I was just so focused on doing every rep perfect and making sure, you know, every little detail was crossed and checked off. And, you know, I feel like Coach O'Connell and Coach McCownum, them talking to me about,

hey, like, let's worry about that stuff in the offseason, go out there, play your ball, just, you know, execute the play at the end of the day. And, you know, that just frees up a lot of space mentally to be instinctual, react, and, you know, respond to what the defense is giving me. And, yeah, very excited to play. Is that what you're saying sometimes? Is that what happens? I'm definitely a natural overthinker. So, you know, the way, and it's not against them, I need to do a better job of compartmentalizing those coaching points and realizing when it's game time.

It's time to let it loose and not focus on that. I will say that there have been times in the last couple weeks where you could even see on. the tape where it looked like he was trying to and the golf metaphors just present themselves so easily here like he was trying to think about all right and this happens to me on the golf course when I watch golf tips on YouTube all the time and that was my in my recap of my YouTube when it says here's what you watch number one was golf tips and so it will happen where you watch the golf tip and you're like, okay, I'm trying to keep my left shoulder down as far away from my body as I can and then rotate. And once you start doing that, you're, you are overthinking.

You're not natural in your movements. And I remember there was a throw against, I believe it was Chicago, where it was an out route that he just threw way over Justin Jefferson's head. And if you watch it, he looks like he's trying to. trying to just like, here's where my arm goes and here's how I push the ball toward Justin Jefferson. Like, it's not a fluid motion at all. At the same time, if we have reached the point where the coaches are just sort of throwing up their hands and saying, all right, we can't, we just can't do this anymore with your throwing technique. Throw the ball however the heck you want. Just don't throw it to the other team. I mean, I think that that could help J.J. McCarthy a bit

because when your technique, but here's the other thing, when your technique is so far off what it needs to be to play in the NFL, that now they're just sort of having to be done with it and telling him to just go ahead. Like, that's concerning there, right there, that they feel like there's nothing left to really say. It's not one thing that he can fix right now. It's so far off that he's going to need an entire off season to fix it. And I think that that's absolutely true. And I've felt that way for a while when they were talking about,

doing it during the by week. It was like, how much can you really do in a buy week to correct someone's fundamentals and stuff like that? That is usually an offseason thing where you get with your QB guru as long as he's not online. And you work on that stuff thousands and thousands of reps over a summer and come back and hope that it sticks. So I generally agree with the sense of like, all right, he's going to throw how he's going to throw. Let's just have him get this stuff down. But, you know, him talking about, well, I'm an overthinker, so this is better for me. I mean, that sounds, there sounds like some rationalization here of, well, this was actually

the problem. I was overthinking. And I guess my only thought is, at least they're playing the Washington commanders and not the Green Bay Packers. And maybe that will help McCarthy get a little bit more confidence and possibly play a little bit more free and possibly the simplification stuff will work. for a week that they can build on. But what I would caution everybody is if he plays well against the commanders,

that doesn't mean that it's like, there it is. Like, that's the truth now. That was the whole problem because simplification is more of a one week type of fix. If you do it over multiple weeks, the opposing defenses are going to pick up on all of your tendencies and then crush you. So it's a for now type of let's try to salvage what we can get at the rest of this season. and then we go into the off season and deal with the rest. If that's where you've arrived at,

that means that you've sort of gone past go. You've gone past the point where you feel like this is going okay and it's going in a positive direction. And now you're just trying to scrape together what else you can get at the end of the season. And again, the commanders are a great opponent for this. They are one of the worst past defenses in the entire NFL. So if this does not work, then the answers are none, really, for the rest of the season.

I think that's what puts it on now is that if O'Connell tries simplifying, tries not giving him a hard time about his fundamentals and techniques, they play one of the worst teams in the league, they're at home, they've been ripped to shreds for the last two weeks by everybody, including myself, and if it doesn't work now and they can run against this team, If it doesn't work now, then when will it ever work? It could be a turning point to get him back on track, get some confidence, play some good games the rest of the way. Remember, he's played six. He's got five left so we can have a much bigger sample size or it goes the other direction.

This still doesn't work. And then you feel like, all right, we tried everything we could as an organization to get him to a spot where he could play as fast as he possibly could and it still didn't work. now we know, which is really what the mode that they're in is to get as much information about J.J. McCarthy as possible. So there you go. There is your update for today. And now let's go to my conversation with the great data scientist Sam Brookhouse. And then later on in the show, Manny Hill will pick the schedule. So thanks everybody for watching and listening. Here's Sam Brookhouse. Folks, the holidays are almost here. And if you still have names on your list, Don't panic. Uncommon Goods makes holiday shopping stress-free and joyful with thousands of one-of-a-kind gifts that you cannot find anywhere else.

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Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider presented by Fandul, Matthew Collar, here with Sumer Sports Data Scientist, Sam Brookhouse, returning to the show because I need somebody with a front office analytical brain. to help us fix this situation or work our way through this situation with the Minnesota Vikings. Sam, we have turned the page. There is five games left to go, but the chances of the Vikings making the playoffs, I believe, are at about 0.5% at this point. In fact, I think the odds are better for them to not win six games than they are to make the postseason. We've been ripping apart what happened. But I think that the audience is pretty much got that down by now.

I think the real question is what is going to happen next for the Minnesota Vikings. So let's work our way through what they need to do from here. So it's like, now that you know X, what do you do with Y? Where would you like to begin that conversation? I have a sense for what position it might begin with, but why don't we just start there? how would you approach the quarterback situation from here if you're the Minnesota Vikings? I think you have to take an extremely close look at the bets that you made

and an extremely close look at the bets that you probably can make in the future. And I think that starts with J.J. McCarthy because of the injury year one, it kind of set back what I like to call the two-year cycle of quarterbacks, which is you draft a quarterback, you play him year one, you kind of get a feel for what he can do, at least as it pertains to the line of scrimmage. Because as we've talked about many times, Matt, it's difficult for rookie quarterbacks to really excel in this league.

We're seeing it with Cam Ward right now. We've seen it with Dylan Gabriel and Shador Sanders and countless other guys over the years. You hope that that gets better in year two, and you build up probably using good draft capital, due to the loser's curse. You build up the rest of the team. And then if it doesn't work out in year two,

you're able to move on in year three. That's not really going to be the case for the Vikings. I think you have to continue getting a look at JJ McCarthy, especially due to all the injuries. Maybe that's just a part of his profile at this point. But you have to get backup level talent back in there. You have to get what you had last year in Sam Darnold. Does that look like James Winston?

Does that look like someone else? I don't know, but you have to get at least one or two veteran backups in free agency in this upcoming year to backstop against the constant bleeding that you've had from, you know, I think if Carson Wince doesn't get hurt every part of his body, maybe this looks like closer to a 500 season right now. I don't think it would be over a 500 season, but it certainly looks different than it looks with J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer now. And so I think that is step one, you have to identify free agent quarterbacks that can come in and at least give you a 50% better play. And we talked about this last time I came on. The problem with this

offense, and I'm putting it on the quarterbacks, there's some blame to be had on the interior offense line as well, is that they simply cannot get the ball in the air to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and T.J. Hawkinson. If you look at three key stats for these players, You have Target Share, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hawkinson, top of their position in Target Share. You have yards per route run in the dregs for true number ones. And then you look at targets per route run, which is slightly different than Target Share. And that's way down too. So the problem is literally you got to get the ball in the air to these guys.

We saw the Bengals be able to slightly address this by going and getting Joe Flacco. Maybe a 44-year-old Joe Flacco is the answer here. You just got to do something with the veteran quarterback to backstop this bleeding that we've seen. So there is one thing I can say about that because we have been very critical of the offense, the scheme and how hard it may be for young quarterbacks. But when Carson Wentz came in, Jefferson had back to back 100 yard games. It's really not that hard to get the ball to Justin Jefferson. And we saw it with Max Brosmer.

Last week, I was watching the tape back. And Jefferson's coming out of a break. He's ready to catch the ball. then it's not there, then a linebacker drifts into the coverage, then the ball is high and it fly. I mean, there's just been a lot of simple stuff that the quarterbacks have not been able to execute really on any level, which is why it's fair to believe that a veteran quarterback should they come in here and win the job would be able to somewhat succeed. I have been calling him this week, 26 Viking starting quarterback Marcus Mariotta,

because that is a type of name that makes sense. Let me throw an alternate strategy at you and then maybe we could go over some of these levels to different types of guys and what actually is the right move. If I'm at the very, very top and I don't mean the GM, I mean I own the team. I have $7 billion. I think it might be better for the franchise if I told my GM and coach, no, you can't go get Mac Jones with a draft pick. No, you cannot spend $26 million in Capspace and Gino Smith to make a trade for him.

No, you cannot sign someone to compete with J.J. McCarthy. You have to bring back Sam Howell. That would be my strategy. And I'll tell you why is because, one, you made the bed sleep in it. You said that you could develop him. You said that you could whisper into his ear and make him a good quarterback. So let's see it. You'll have a whole off season to do it.

Off you go. The other part is, if I'm going to fire. them at the end of it. If it doesn't work, I would like a high draft pick. So I either wanted to fail spectacularly or have McCarthy develop take a next step, which I think is still very much on the table. I would not want to give them the out of going nine and eight with Gino Smith or Mac Jones and then look around and go, wait a minute, I recognize this position that is mid once again, which is why you got rid of Kirk Cousins, who also could be the quarterback for 2026, by the way.

So that that's my highest level strategy, even though I do not think it's realistic. You got to forgive me because the name Gino Smith came out. And if you need a thumbnail, like I think I almost had a heart attack. I was like, oh my God. I don't know if Gino Smith can fit on this team. But yeah, I mean, like, I think the way to turn would be, it's tough. Because we think about Sam Howell as a starter in this league because he started for Eric, Viennamy and Ron Rivera and at least put up a lot of yardage.

But when it comes down to it, he's still a fourth or fifth round quarterback. So you can't expect much from him long term. I think as a result, you know, you survey the field. Marcus Marriota is a guy who has been able to keep an offense running, particularly in a situation with the commanders that was built, the ship was built for Jaden Daniels. He's been able to continue keeping that running. But you do make an interesting point where you either want to hit

a home run, kind of like you did with Sam Donald, really, unfortunately. And I still am not the biggest believer in Sam Donald in a Seahawks uniform. I think they have a tough schedule upcoming. Our AI analytics at least don't necessarily believe in what he's doing, given the pass rate of the Seahawks and given how JSN has performed, it could be a situation where he's just had two excellent wide receivers and has been able to get the ball in the air enough until it kind of all implodes as it did against the Rams, both in a Vikings uniform and in a Seahawks uniform. All that being said, I think a move like a Sam Howell or a high variance player, that's why I kind of like, you know, James Swenson is on the two-year contract, you go make a trade,

things can happen. But all that being said, I think that probably is a better move. I, for one, am falling into this kind of theory that the way that you approach the quarterback acquisition if you don't have it is you have your highly drafted guy in that case this has to be j jay mccarthy i mean you got to get a read on him for the extension for the fifth year uh option etc you bring in two veteran guys one who is probably more of your joe flacco russell wilson as the giants did this year and you bring in a second guy who is the high variance the kinney picket the james winson etc and then you probably go in the late rounds and try to just pick up a brock party

type guy. I think that is the solution kind of for the Vikings. We've seen them carry three and four quarterbacks before. And I think you just kind of got to go no holds barred because you know that you have two good tackles. You know that you have good wide receivers tight in room. The running back room hasn't been great, but Jordan Mason has shown flashes. And then the defense is one of the better defenses in the league. You got to solve the quarterback acquisition in some form or fashion, at least just to make the playoffs. And really, even prior to that, at least just to compete in the NFC more. See, that's my problem.

I want to compete with the quarterback that you drafted and sold out on Sam Darnold. Or I want you to lose all the games and draft Julian Sayan in 2020. To me, those are the only outcomes that are good. Either J.J. McCarthy turns a corner and becomes a very good quarterback on a rookie contract. And we, you did it. this is great, this is what you were looking for, which again, still on the table. Or you, the point about Sam Howell is not that Sam Howell could be any good at all. It's that he is not at all anywhere close to a starting quarterback.

I don't want that in camp with J.J. McCarthy because that person will win the job probably. I don't want the coach who is going to be coaching for his job to be like, oh, James is better. Let's play James. Throw 30 interceptions. Go eight and nine. miss the playoffs and then what the heck did you get out of this and guess what the next quarterback you're drafting he's the fifth quarterback coming out he's the 14th overall pick he's not the drake may or the jaden daniels or the caleb williams caliber prospect i wanted to have the true two outcomes either mccarthy swims and he's good enough to get you somewhere or he sinks and you all sink with him because that's your guy that you all decided

was so ready and so good that you could shoo out of the door somebody that was capable of winning 14 games. So I want them in their regime to live or die on that hill. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they're going to do exactly what you said. But I think as analytics people were always thinking of like, go for it on fourth down, live or die, play with that variance. Or the reason that you tank. And then it's, oh, man, I could never ask a team. to lose. Oh, tanking is so horrifying. And then, um, Patriots, Patriots any, but where did they get

that guy? Where did they get that big giant behemoth who keeps throwing awesome passes? The Vikings never want to do that. They always want to hedge. But here's my main issue. The Green Bay Packers, probably not going anywhere. Jordan loves a good quarterback. They're going to be the playoffs. The Detroit Lions, I think, have still a couple more years of Jared Gough. and this foundation, and the Chicago Bears, as much as I think they're kind of fraudulent overall of a contender. Definitely. They got the quarterback on the rookie contract, though,

and he's only been getting better, and they seem to have a very good coach. How are you competing with these teams if you're just going to bring in Mac Jones or James Winston and be like, oh, sure, here we go. Let's hope for another Case Keenum type of season. I just don't think that that looks any. different from what the previous regimes have done so here's where i'll push back a little bit

and i i think that this take is informed a little bit by me coming of age kind of in the in the NBA and then also playing where there's two things that i truly believe one is that the NFL draft is the ultimate crapshoot and so we have you know the 2024 draft where we're lucky enough to get allegedly right now, as you said, I think it's pretty fraudulent, the one-seed bears with Caleb Williams. We have the one-seed Patriots with Drake May, who's probably going to win the MVP as told by Sumer score, as told by the odds, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And then you had Jaylon Jane Daniels who was competing for an MVP last year, ends up winning the NFC championship game. That is immensely rare, immensely rare. And you look back at the other seasons,

you look at this season it's extremely common to have quarterbacks just big question mark and there's been research about this it's called the quarterback prediction problem we often can identify which clusters of quarterbacks are good but we can't identify which quarterback will be better than any other one and so i'm kind of a believer more in the way that the ravens have approached this where it's that we're going to have a trillion draft picks and you know we have a have Joe Flacco on a big contract, but we're going to take Lamar Jackson with the 27th pick. And we're going to take all these other guys throughout the draft. And maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. That's the camp that I kind of fall in. And the second portion, which

definitely comes from my playing experience, is that football is such a game of luck, particularly as it pertains to injury. You think about the Patriots right now. The reason why the Patriots are so good is because their offensive line has been healthy, basically until this week. And then this week, they played the giants who are an absolute atrocity at this point and it showed up within five minutes of the game and so there's a little bit of luck there and so i'm a believer if you can build a team that is projected or or is around eight or nine wins that something goes right and you win 10 or 11 games as the bears kind of are in a scenario or something goes wrong as the vikings are in right now and then you start talking about six wins and stuff like that

But I think if you can build a team that can be expected to win eight or nine games, you can probably content. That being said, the reality is the top quarterbacks get pushed up to the top. So I understand where you're coming from. It's not the exact approach that I would take. I would still try to compete. And the reason why is because you do have a lot of young talent on this team. You have Dallas Turner, who kind of has an arrow up right now.

You have a Jalen Redman who has basically come out of nowhere to potentially potentially compete for a Pro Bowl appearance. You have an Eric Wilson. You have all this young talent, and you want to make sure not to squander that. And I think that's having that level of process is the thing that we've seen in quotes from Quesia doffamenza thus far,

but then all of a sudden we're trading up for McCarthy and Turner. And then we don't have the draft picks in year two or year three, and you got to get lucky with a guy like Redmond, or you've got to have a guy like Jordan, Mason fall into your lap with a pretty good trade. And I think sticking to a process is just going to be the key for them in the next couple of years and not really, you know, going all in on an archmanning in two years or

one year or going all in on whoever is going to be the top quarterback this year. I think you really got to stick to a process and that process has to be having a lot of draft fix, which is not what they've done in the past couple of years. Right. I agree with that. I would describe it as a lot of in their prime talent, be more than young. Like Turner is definitely emerging for sure. I ran across this that he's in the top 15 in pressures since week eight, since he actually took over in the role of Jonathan

Granard since he's been banged up. He's been really excellent. I totally agree with you on Jalen Redmond. Donovan Jackson, I think, has turned out to be a very good draft pick for them. Like they've done some good things there, but a lot more of it is Jefferson in his prime, Derrissau on his prime. And I think that what the counter to my argument would be is that they've just got too much talent to have another year of McCarthy if it's going to look like this. And then you wasted all of it. You wasted all the money. You wasted all the free agent dollars. You wasted the extensions. You wasted people's time. And I think that they've really done that this year. And that's how a Harrison Smith and a Justin Jefferson feel is my career has been wasted because,

we made this decision and put this kid in charge who was not ready. I don't even think that the players blame J.J. McCarthy. It's like you didn't put yourself in charge of this. I think from a from a 30,000 foot view of we're hitting a home run or we're striking out, that's where it is to me, I think a better outcome at the end of the day where it is true that some quarterbacks, Josh Allen was not the first overall pick and so forth, but I think we all know this, the highest percentage chance of a hit. in the NFL draft what random it may be is what pick number one overall and what's the second

highest number two overall and what's the third highest do I need to keep going and that's I mean the theory of even this year you need to finish with a top 10 draft pick and and get a great player but if there's also a world though where it works and McCarthy takes that next step and he's very good and you've got exactly what you wanted. And I also want to see if that's possible rather than bringing in a veteran quarterback who wins the job. And then you're just sitting there going like, where are we going as a franchise? And then all of your eggs are pushed to the middle of the basket. If that's, wait, no, it's chips to the middle of the table or eggs in the basket, either which one you want. Just don't use 36 mafia quotes if you're a podcaster. That I learned

this week is not a great idea. But you're putting everything to the middle of the table on Mac Jones or something or James Winston. Like that's not a good. You talk about what the process is. That's not a good process. Yeah. If that's what you're doing either,

that sounds like extending Kirk Cousins because you had no other answers and your ownership wouldn't let you have a bad year. It's just like it's just so tough to say that, you're going to tank with that level of prime talent. And that's like where, and the reason why I say that is, it's not tanking. It's giving McCarthy an opportunity to prove that he's the guy.

It would only be tanking if I said play Sam Howl. It's making them live or die with their draft pick and giving them every opportunity to make that decision right and not cop out with Gino Smith. I'm cooking. I'm cooking. it's just like the ceiling of okay so we've seen what we've seen from j j mccarthy we've seen what we've seen from sam how at this point it feels like the ceiling of wins on that is i mean

seven wins maybe unless we see a big jump from j j mccarthy so i like i kind of view it is tanking and i just don't we listed off some of the great names derrishaw we're justin jefferson i'd include o'neal in there i'd include uh you know cashman in there who's been good when he's been healthy uh i'd even include the two quarterbacks from time to time you know i haven't been a big fan of the way they played but they can come up in big moments particularly as it pertains to turnovers and that's the bones of a at least nfc north winning team in any given year you can win in this in the nfc north if you have good quarterback play and it's it's so funny that of the team with probably the second or

third most analytically touted uh general manager and and staff just more generally all the way up to ownership is facing the biggest problem in football and the hardest problem which is the quarterback position and it's so funny the way this goes because when i was really looking at the bets that were made to put this team together most of the free agency bets were pretty good you know you can debate how the two defensive tackles that they brought in this year in terms of free agency played out but the defense is good they're getting pressure on quarterbacks you look at some of the the stuff on offense the t j hawkinson trade pretty pretty good trade for them all together he ends up being one of the highest paid guys as a result really the bets that failed were the j j j mccarthy

trade up who was trying to get j j j mccarthy at that point then you lose all that draft capital the the the picks didn't necessarily go extremely well for the teams that got that capital but still maybe that's fodder to make a trade here or there, bring in a good player. And then the Dallas Turner trade, which as we talked about, arrow up on Dallas Turner. But if we have Jared Verse and we have Bo Nix,

and I am not a Bo Nix fan by any degree, but is this a completely different team? Are we talking about the Vikings, like we talk about the Broncos right now, where all of a sudden they may be the one seed, but that was the case about, you know, the Vikings last year. It's just such a difficult problem that I think you got to use all your resources to solve it.

And I just don't know if going and getting a Sam Howell or a very low floor player is the correct way to manage a team that you've put together that is really good, Sands the quarterback position. Right. Yeah. Just and ignore the Sam Howell part. Just crappy backup quarterback who can't play X you could call. I just use Sam Howell because it's shorter. But yeah. So I think that your line. of thinking is going to be their line of thinking, which is if we, if you look at back at this season and you plugged in an average quarterback, who is the 16th best quarterback in the league this year, maybe it's Bo Nix, you plug in Bo Nix. This team is absolutely in the race. But my issue would be, is it enough to compete for a Super Bowl? That is not the most convincing thing. Because part of drafting J.J. McCarthy is, yeah, like some people said that his ceiling wasn't that

high. I don't actually think that that's true. From what we've seen, the raw talent that the guy has is through the roof. It's really just that it's not refined at all because he didn't have a lot of experience playing in college. And then he was tossed into this after missing an entire season recovering from a knee injury to the point where he couldn't throw a football until January. And then it was, hey, go run this entire franchise. I don't think it's about I think that the ceiling on him is, is very high, that if it does click, you could have a top 10 offense. I think settling, I think that that line of thinking to me, settling for, hey, if we just had average, then we'd at least be in the race.

Again, it sort of sounds like Kirkland of, well, hey, this was the argument all the time. Like, at least Kirk gets you in the hunt. And it's like, okay, is that what we're doing here is trying to get into the hunt? Like, I don't think that it is. but I do think that they will be taking the approach that you're talking about. They will have a higher draft pick. I don't know how many draft picks they're going to end up with because they spent so much in free agency, which hurt their ability to get comp picks, which is not an area that they've

taken advantage of at all since Guaci Adolfo Mensa has been here. And that's the interesting thing, too, is that you mention the analytics part of it. And I think that in a bigger picture team building set up for a rookie quarterback contract and spend, that to me always made a lot of sense. And I thought, well done, good job. Like, you did it. You got to that point. Not being malleable to adjust to the actual circumstances and staying with the plan.

That's the problem. And, but when it comes to the rest of this operation, I really struggle to find where the analytics are. Since 2022, somebody said to the other day on the live stream, like this is what you get when you have an analytical front office. And I was like, can you use your hand and point to me with the, are the analytics in the room with us? Because to me, it's been a very traditional type of approach of free agents that are

veterans that you can trust Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, who as you said, they've been good. And if the quarterback was good, we wouldn't talk about it so much. But I don't see them hacking the National Football League in too many ways. Analytically, maybe you see something different. I think you nailed it. And I was talking about this to some of my data science friends as well. And it's almost like they have the coloring book of the analytics, right?

You're attacking the quarterback position. You are building the interior offensive line through free agency and trades. But then all of a sudden, it goes off to the side. You said Donovan Jackson played pretty well. I think he's been, you know, a rotational starter. He has been someone that you can put in a game and not feel bad about. He's probably been a normal rookie guard, but that's first round compensation you're spending on the guard.

Not a lot of surplus value there. I would have preferred they go with another position, for example. Or real quick. Yeah. Made the trade that the Rams made with the Falcons. Exactly. Go ahead. Exactly.

And so there's that. there's the trade up and speaking of that that trade that the rams made with the falcons there's the like there's the trade up for mccarthy the trade up for turner typically you read any analytics research they're going to be like if you're trading one spot up the chances that that one spot up is going to be radically better than the next one is very very low and sure sure enough again the analytically based thing is that if you're going to do that get a lot of swaps do some middle of the round type stuff and that's what they did but then you don't have any draft capitals in the future years and like we mentioned those players are not better than bo nix j j mccarthy

is not technically better right now than bo nix dallas turner is not technically better than jared verse or chop robinson at least in his first year uh right now and so it the the idea of analytics is there spending on the interior of the defensive line but number one the execution has not just been there. And number two, it feels almost like when the feet get to the fire, like you said, it turns into a traditional thing where it's a little hyper and we have to make this move right now in order to set this team up for success right now. And you can criticize the Browns all you want. But the Browns, when they deviate from the strategy, it's either because they see some massive alpha that could help them win a Super Bowl. I was not a fan of the Deshawn

Watson move, but you can take a look at it, take the names off of it, and this is a guy who competed for an MVP, and all of a sudden he's there for, you know, pennies in terms of trade value. They give him the crazy contract. That's whatever. But you look at them drafting a linebacker and a running back in the second round this year. Then all of a sudden, that linebacker and the running back are in the running for offense player of the year and defensive player of the year. And you look at the Eagles, you look at the Ravens who have maintained a strategy over and over and over again, having a ton of picks, trading back, having a ton of picks, all of a sudden we got a third round quarterback, a second round quarterback that hits.

Then we go invest with A.J. Brown and all that stuff. And so I think, like you said, are the analytics in the room with us? They're definitely setting the vision, but they're not there in the execution, which has been honestly the problem with this team as a result. Well, and I think that what happens is desperation drives stuff like this. And the previous regime was desperate because they thought they're were going to get fired, which is maybe around the corner if the Vikings end up at five and 12.

But I think desperation to make it work in this very small window, which is a, they created a competitive rebuild where they didn't really tear it down, but they took apart some pieces. They fixed the salary cap. They set up for J.J. McCarthy. I fully endorse that strategy of setting up for the rookie quarterback contract into a window. But then the desperation is, well, we have to make it work in this short window, which means whomever is a free agent, you are a Viking. And I don't ever want to disrespect Ryan Kelly.

What a great career and everything else. But it's a risky move. It's a very risky move. And the same goes for Hargrave and Allen. I mean, if you've had these types of careers, I mean, more power to you. You are great in the NFL. You're in the 1% if you've had these careers. But these are risky moves on paper.

And that's why when Seth Walder, analytics guy from ESPN, grades the Vikings moves, he's like, uh, see, you know, because he sees the exact same thing that you're talking about. These are risky. They've got ranges of outcomes, but there is a, you know, coin flip that this is going to actually work for you. And by the way, to justify any of this stuff, your quarterback has to be good, which you had no idea whether he was going to be or not. And I think also, like, the draft approach has driven a lot of fans crazy. The first one was, this is where it all goes sideways, right? The first one is the most analytics-ish, but I'm not even sure that it was because, like, some charts liked it, some charts hated it. It seemed like after that, they were just like, no more, no more trying to analytics are.

And Quasi and Off Omenza referred to the draft pick of Donovan Jackson, who I I believe will be a very, very good guard in the NFL as keeping the ball on the fairway. And it's like, okay, fair enough. I mean, but it was a very typical NFL team thing to do that's not that analytical to say, we need a guard right now. Let's draft a guard right now in the first round. And that's my whole point is that, like, I don't think it's been what we thought it was going to be when Kasi Adolfo Menso arrived.

But let me, let me move the conversation. a little bit, what can they do this offseason, save for the quarterback, like we've hit that, to make this team good enough to argue that they are on the level of a supporting cast for a quarterback, not just offense, offense defense. If you want to look into special teams gunners with your sumer scores, you can, although I think they've been actually really good this year, the gunners. but what can they do on this roster? Because there's going to be turnover.

Like they've got to create cap space somehow. I'd be very shocked if Harrison Smith returned. Theo Jackson, I don't think is an answer at safety. At cornerback, talk about another like sort of hubris risk of bringing in Jeff Okuda. Another talk about like non-analytical move is a guy who had bad numbers for his entire career and thinking you can fix him. that's just there's things that need to be done here how should they approach them it's funny that you ask this because like not to stick on the quarterback even more but the teams in the last couple years who have tried to make an offense work with a young

quarterback that they had question marks about have done basically what the Vikings did this year which is spend a lot of money on the interior offensive line yeah the Vikings just completely whiffed, basically, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, and threes. So it's like, you look at the bears. Tune's probably going to make an all pro list this year or be close to it. And drew Dahlman has played really good. You look at the Panthers, uh, Damien Lewis is a is a is a pro bowl contender on a yearly basis. That just didn't work out. So unfortunately, that's kind of the first place on

the offense and really the only place, which is, uh, where you have to probably spend money. center for sure yeah yeah center and guard into your offensive line i don't think they can i don't think they can with will will fries because they signed them to a five year contract so and and jackson's going to start but center for sure they can't i don't think that call he's going to go forward from here exactly correct and so then you look on the defensive side of the ball and you have premium positions that you can upgrade so i think corner in the first and second third rounds are going to yeah it's is going to be a place that you are probably going to want to make draft picks. I think you feel comfortable about where your edge room is right now.

I think you feel variably comfortable about where your linebacker room is, but that can be addressed through free agency. Typically, we saw the Patriots kind of knocked out out of the park this year with Spillane. You can get that in kind of the more middle rounds, third, fourth, fifth is typically where you're going to see those guys go very similar to the running back position on the flip side. And so I think secondary in the draft, the center position in particular in free agency if there's a great name that you can find or perhaps you know trade with or get some kind of interesting deal pulled off i think those are

the two major positions that you're going to want to attack the secondary in the draft and the center position in particular which you know the vikings have struggled with for years i don't have to tell you twice about it especially with a with a rookie quarterback a young quarterback that makes a big difference. And we've seen guys like Eric McCoy, for example, make Spencer Rattler look pretty good. All of a sudden, Eric McCoy is out for the year for the Saints, and the young quarterbacks look terrible.

And so I think those are the key pieces alongside depth at the tackle position, obviously we've been doing a lot of research on when tackles go out. It's looked brutal when Derisaw or O'Neill has gone out for the Vikings. I think depth at those positions is very key. and then just try to keep building this team up and maintaining the level of star power you have at key positions while also filling in the gaps

to make sure if a quarterback does pop in any position you're able to compete right then. And I'm very curious about, and I'll do a salary cap show at some point because that's where we're at right now. How they manipulate the cap in almost New Orleans Saint-like fashion to try to add talent in free agency again.

though I don't know that there will be quite as much interest from the free agents as there was last year. So I want to get to one more bigger picture NFL thing, but Sumer scores, you mentioned them for individual players. Tell me about what you guys are working on there because it's a very, I think, interesting approach to evaluating players, which there is one particular company that has done that for a very, very long time with a certain approach. And you guys at Sumer are doing it a little bit differently. Yeah. So the idea is that we're going to look at the tracking data.

And we're going to look at every 10th of a second and compare every 10th of a second to every other one going back to 2016. And so the idea is to look at the relationships between the players with the understanding that, you know, the quarterback has to read the linebackers and the safeties and because of the linebackers and the safeties, they make a decision, throw the wider receivers, so forth and so on. Once we get that reading in about what those relationships are

and what those mean, we try to make two basic assumptions or two basic readings. Number one is how rare is this season that a player is having as compared going back to 2016? The second thing that we try to take a look at is how much can we trust that it's going to continue to be like this? And as a result, we're able to get in particular in the Vikings case some readings about

whose fault it is in a way that you can't necessarily do if you're just looking at this player made this throw to this person and not consider all the other factors and not consider all the history of what we've seen in the past. And so this year as a result, we've been able to like truly pin it on the quarterback position, which is very rare. like sometimes it'll pop up with the wide receivers that they're not doing well and that's kind of interrelated to the quarterback as a result not the case this year just in jefferson having an impact starter pro bowl level year and not only that we're able to break it down to before the throw the man's

running good routes he's open when you go look at his catch rate and his catch rate is 86th among wide receivers with a hundred outs run it ain't his fault he ain't dropping the ball it's because he's getting open, the ball's not getting to him. You go look at the tackles. Derison O'Neill. They're both having above average years. And frankly, the guard, the guard position, we're getting around that average, above average year as well. You go look at the quarterback position. It's deep into the red. We're talking about, you know, what we've seen from backups who have come in and had to play three or four games. We're talking about rookies that are basically elevated from the practice squad,

which is basically what has happened with Brosmer. And that is what we're seeing from that group. And so as a result, we're able to actually pinpoint with our Sumer scores and try to get closer to that level of attribution that we've been, you know, struggling for trying to research more in recent years. Well, it's, you know, something when it comes to just using tracking data that stats like completion percentage over expected, that kind of thing, I think can really tell you a lot. And your point about Justin Jefferson, it certainly matches the high test of how many times you watch the film and he's breaking open. And I'm sure this would be Kevin O'Connell's contention is, man, when you look at the plays that have drawn up, that they're there and the

throws aren't being made. And I have never seen in my life so many inaccurate throws, late throws that have happened to, excuse me, wide open wide receivers. And I think that's what's driven everybody nuts watching this team. So very, very interesting stuff to look into, but applying that to each position. It is such a complicated game. and we should never stop trying to learn more about it. Now, with this flood of data that, as you said, we have sample size on that can actually tell us what to use. Is there one for the Vikings, like one player that has stood out to you?

Yeah, I was really shocked by Eric Wilson. We think he's having a really quality year. And he basically stepped into a position where it was like, good luck, buddy. Like Cashman's hurt in the middle of the year. You're going to have to take over pretty much this entire defense, and he's really stepped up. And as a result, we've seen Ivan Pace just kind of fall off the map in a Vikings uniform. I was not expecting that. Typically, we saw him perform at the better top of the league, particularly last year, in two things,

run defense and pass rush. Obviously, that's what he's asked to do. But we started figuring that his snaps were going to start falling off. We're talking about week four, week five. if he started putting up brutal games and as a result, those snaps start falling off week seven, week eight, week nine. So I was really shocked by how well Eric Wilson is showing up.

I wouldn't be surprised. Again, the goal of this is to see how these players will continue to play like this. And I think he's going to continue being a really good contributor for this defense. I think so too. I believe free agent after this year, they'll have to make a decision on him,

but I'm all in on extending Eric Wilson. and once Brian Flores realized that running backs cannot block Eric Wilson, all hell is broken loose up the middle for opposing quarterbacks, including Sam Darnold last week. Okay, so the last question is this. On Fandul right now, the favorite for the Super Bowl is the Los Angeles Rams at plus 460. There's three other teams that are plus 900 right behind them, Seattle, Green Bay, and Philly. And then the AFC teams, New England and Buffalo at plus 11.

and 100. How hard is it right now to figure out who the actual best teams in the NFL are and who who is your team right now that you would say, look, this is the bet I'm going to make and I'm going to stick with it? It's been extremely hard. I think there is a tier above right now. And I think the Rams are in that tier. And that's why they're the favorite. Ironically, typically we're able to go to team strength to evaluate these types of things. The problem is, is in particular with a team like the Seahawks, you have a pretty light schedule. The Colts are also in this group, and ironically, the Seahawks and Colts are about to play each other. You have these teams that have had a lighter schedule and are in difficult divisions. And for whatever reason, those division matchups have gotten

pushed back. And as a result, they're going to face teams that are going to expose their weaknesses in grave, grave nature. I mean, we've seen it with Daniel Jones in the past couple of weeks. Pass rush has been able to get to him. They face the Texans. Again, they're going to face the Jaguars. And Josh Heinz Allen is truly having a very good year that people are not realizing. And I'm sure we'll realize after this Colts game if he has a good game.

But I think the Rams at this point just have better quality players, which is a testament to the draft strategy. We talk so much about the draft strategy, particularly in the same. secondary. Their ability to fill up this team with quality, safety, Nichols, and all of a sudden, Emmanuel Forbes can play. Wasn't a great week this past week against Tedder Oak McMillan. But their turnover of the defense and their ability to have multiple blue chip guys across the defensive line and secondary has changed the way that

offenses have to attack them. I think the Stafford game against the Panthers, it's a rainy game, a weird weather game. Bryce Young has one of the games that just makes a big huge riddler question mark pop up above all of our heads which we've seen for two straight years now i think that's kind of a one-off particularly if they're able to get that one seed in the nfc the seahawks game i think is a true question mark of like when this guy faces this strong of a defense can he make up for that so i still like the rams right now and in the aFC it's just extremely tough because the chiefs are losing games to good teams but you look at the metrics when it really comes down to it. Their defense hasn't been great, but their offense

is really good. Typically, the MVP is a guy who is in the top or leads in expected points at it, and that's what Patrick Mahomes has been this year. He's having an excellent year. And so it's like if the chiefs can squeak in, can they win three straight road games? Probably not, but am I going to bet against them? No. I don't like what I'm necessarily seeing from the bills. There's a lot of injuries. We saw them get exposed by the Texans, nine sacks against Josh Allen, which we've almost never seen. I think the AFC is a little bit more of a rodeo when it comes down to it, but I think the AFC is going to end up a little bit more chalk. The NFC, I think I believe in the Rams, and as a result, I'm going to go with the Rams here. I would also go with the Rams, and

I'm going to stick with this. I think despite all the issues with the bills, the receivers, the injuries on defense. I still think that if Casey doesn't end up in the playoffs and maybe even Baltimore doesn't end up in the playoffs, you have one elite quarterback in the postseason. I will just bet on him. And I think they run the ball so well and that guy's going to make plays.

And as long as they don't have to travel to the Houston Texans, but even then, even then they get sacked nine times in that game. They are on the 30-yard line with a chance to win it. And an open wide receiver that he can't find. So I'm still thinking that Buffalo is the strongest team. A Buffalo Rams Super Bowl would, that would be something. Sam Brookhouse, a former football player, a data scientist, great, great perspective on the show. Really appreciate you coming on once again, man.

Thanks for doing this. Football. All right. We welcome into the show. Rain or shine, 4 and 8, 8 and 4, 14, and 2. It doesn't matter what the Vikings record is. manny hill is still going to pick the schedule we did it in o tas we did it throughout training camp we did it week one and dang it we're going to do it week 14 regardless you know why because uh it's

it's all about the journey manny it's what we learn about each other along the way and our thoughts about where this thing is going to go and then what it'll mean if they end up with the record that you come up with so welcome uh to uh i don't know bad team theater here four and eight versus three and nine Minnesota Vikings and Washington commanders. Mani, are you picking the Minnesota Vikings to win this football game? Well, before I get to that, I was thinking, I think in the future, maybe I'll start doing this next year or maybe I'll like do some backtracking for this season. I'm going to start going back and looking at what my final record was on a week to week basis just to kind of compare notes

and see how everything sort of evolved over the course of the season. So I might do a little bit of sort of research on that. So just to that point, though, I think early in the season, after week one win, I know you were at 11. And we mostly hovered around thinking that this team would get back at least into the race. There was no time. I mean, even at some of the lowest moments, you still picked eight because it is truly shocking that this team could be four and eight. And even just talking to the players in the locker

room, I think that they are stunned too. And that, you know, they're saying, well, you know, every year's different, I guess. But for the amount of talent that they had, I don't think you are unreasonable to have thought that it would start to galvanize eventually or something good would turn or JJ would take another step. But I think last week, actually really, it was Green Bay, right? Green Bay was the point where you were like, I, yeah. Yeah, I can't pick them to have decent records anymore. So let's see where this one takes us. Well, I've been pretty consistent the last few weeks that this is going to be a win.

And I'm going to stick with that here against Washington because that team is just so bad right now. And man, you just look at how bad they've been since Jaden Daniels has been injured. And he's been kind of in and out all season. but that defense has just really falling apart, which is crazy to think about their head coach, Dan Quinn has coordinated and led some of the best defenses that we've seen of this generation. And to see that unit kind of fall apart the way that they have

is really, really shocking. And they're probably a team too that was like, they couldn't imagine of being three and nine at this point of the season. So I think if this, is, if the Vikings are going to win any more games the rest of the season, this is their best shot against this team, this ratty ass team is their best shot. And I think they're going to get it done here. At some point, they're going to have to win another home game. This is their

best shot to do that. So I'll take the Vikings to win against Washington. Okay, 5 and 8. I know for myself, I made a promise after the last game that I would not pick them again for another game. Like, I just, I just can't. There's been too many times where we've been like, this is the one they get back on track, they'll take care of business against this team and they have not been able to do it. But I think that this game and the one two weeks after against the New York Giants are the most obvious you really have to win these games to show that you're better than teams that are just a trash fire. And really the explanation for them, I think it's an easier place to be if you're Washington than if you're Minnesota because Washington's quarterback who was a young

superstar got hurt, tried to come back and play got hurt again. You're playing a backup the whole time. They've had half of their defense get injured. And this is kind of what happens. With the Vikings, they've had their starting quarterback for six games. Their backup quarterback was an improvement for five games over what they've had from J.J. McCarthy. I mean, there isn't, I think, as many excuses. And even though they had a lot of injuries early in the year, it's not like it was Washington where it's guys out for the year. Guys have come back. that's the weird thing to me about this team is the beginning of the season. They had a bunch of injuries.

Okay, that's why you lost games. You've had your full roster for the last month. That's when we thought that they were going to turn the corner. So, yeah, I mean, this week, I'm still going to pick Washington to win this football game because I will be consistent with this in picking the other team, although that's going to really be tested by the Giants. But this is a very, very winnable game for the Minnesota Vikings. So you go to five and eight and then travel to Dallas for a national,

television, or at least as of right now, they have not flexed it out. And I don't think they're flexing Dallas for anything. So national TV, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys. Yeah. And I think, you know, even though the Vikings are having a bad year, I think, you know, Justin Jefferson still holds a lot of star power and a lot of, you know, where you can kind of sell that to a prime time audience. And of course, the Cowboys sell the brand of the Cowboys and everything kind of sells itself.

So, yeah, I have a hard time. seeing, you know, that game being flexed out. And I also have a hard time seeing the Vikings winning this game. This is, I mean, the Cowboys have really, with the moves that they made at the trade deadline, to kind of bolster the defense, which, again, you could have just kept Michael Parsons. But the way, you know, Quinn and Williams,

as you've mentioned many times, he's a beast and he's really helped that defense play a lot better in recent weeks. And, you know, Dak Prescott and those receivers, when they're rolling, they're really hard to stop. And we've seen the Vikings kind of struggle to cover, you know, elite level wide receiver tandems over the course of the year. So I'm going to give the Cowboys the win here. And honestly, Collar, at this point, I don't think it's going to be particularly close.

Yeah, this is going to be a really, really tough one because the Dallas Cowboys strengths right now are matching up against the Vikings weaknesses. Still the interior of the offensive line remains a question. Will Fry's got lit up last week. Donovan Jackson will see when he comes back if he's going to come back within the next couple weeks, but even if he does, I mean, Quinn and Williams, he's in over his head in that matchup more likely than not. And then the corners for the Vikings who have not performed at the level that they need

against the quarterback who can pick apart any blitz and has done it over the years against the Vikings and Dak Prescott, and he could put the ball up for those guys to go make plays. That one's going to be a very, very difficult one. and the environment, national television again. Yeah, that could be tough. So they go to five and nine and then off to New York to see the Giants, whose first round draft pick doesn't feel like going to meetings, it seems.

Their coach is fired. Their GM, I mean, has to be, right? Like, the only thing that he's gripping onto is, hey, I drafted a young quarterback. I actually think that they're not that horribly set up for the future. If not really well set up, if Jackson Dart can figure out how to slide, then with Malik neighbors coming back and they've got some young players to work with, high draft picks, but there's only so much calamity as an organization that you can survive. So they're just in hell right now, but, you know, you could say a lot of the same things for the Vikings. So what happens in East Rutherford against the Giants? Well, we know historically Brian Flores has always been able to kind of feast off of young quarterbacks, right?

You know, we saw it a lot last year and in moments this year as well. I think this is going to be interesting, though, because the Vikings defense can do really well rushing a quarterback that is kind of stationary and can kind of stand in the pocket. We saw when they got pressure on Jared Gough, it really impacted him in that, in that Lions game a few weeks ago. So, you know, Jackson Darton kind of move around a little bit and improvise. Like you said, though, he's got to learn on a slide. Otherwise, hey, kid, your career is not going to, you're not going to have a very long career unless you figure out how to slide. They might be playing Jamis. Like, he could get hurt any week.

Right. Yeah. And so, and well, and I think that might change some things, too. If you're playing James, you know, Byron Murphy Jr. might end up being the leading receiver for the Giants. James Winston is playing quarterback. But, yeah, I think I'm going to assume that Jackson Dart is going to play in this game. And I think that that mobility dynamic could make things kind of interesting.

You know, the receivers are, you know, obviously Malik neighbors being out for the year. That would, you know, that changes a lot for, you know, how this game could go. But, you know, the guys that the Giants have it, receiver, they're not terrible. Wendell Robinson's been, had some moments this year. Darius Slayton, we've seen him have some. moments over the course of his career as well. The other thing I'm thinking about, too, is, you know, the Giants' defense isn't great, but up front, they've got some guys that can be a potential problem for you.

Dexter Lawrence has been a problem in the past for the Vikings. Brian Burns is there as well. So that's going to be something to kind of watch for, you know, J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. Long answer here. I'm going to take the Vikings to win this game. It's going to be interested. it's going to be close, I think.

But I think something, the Vikings will find a way to win in some weird, funky type of way and escape the metal lands with the win number six. It does feel like there's going to be one of these games. I don't know which it is, where they have a great win. Like, they're just too much talent.

And even with a quarterback that struggled like J.J. McCarthy, it's not like we've never seen him play well for any quarter or any moment as he did. you know, against Detroit or early in the season against Chicago in the fourth quarter. It feels like one game we'll walk out of there and go, they won 35 to 10. What was that? That to me is New York. Like, there's just going to be a, this is a wounded, horrible franchise.

It's down as bad as you could be down. And they're just not going to show it all. And it seems like their players are just giving up. One thing I know about the Vikings players, they will not give up. And we saw this from Washington last week against Denver. Dan Quinn, his team, he is a great coach. I'm not saying he's one of the best coaches of all time, but he is a proven coach who could take a team to a Super Bowl,

take a team to an NFC championship. He's not going to let his team just lay down. They don't even have a coach in New York. So I think that they will be. They will be laying all the way down. And that's the game that they will get their blowout. And then come back home for Christmas on Netflix. Welcome to.

I'm sure Netflix is like, really thought we were going to get a lot more subscriptions out of this one. Instead, it's two teams that I don't, I don't know if the lions are going to make the playoffs. It seems like a stretch right now, but the lions will be desperate to try to make the postseason. Will the Vikings win at home against Detroit on Christmas Day in front of America's Netflix users? Yeah, Detroit's in a top spot, man. They almost, I think certainly if they're going to win the still win the NFC North, They're going to have to probably win out and looking at their schedule coming up.

It's not easy, you know, the three games leading up to this matchup with the Vikings, home against Dallas, you know, tonight. And then you've got a road game against the Los Angeles Rams. That's going to be tough. And then you got Pittsburgh coming into Detroit the next week after that. So it's not going to be an easy stretch. How that, you know, how those three games go is really going to determine, you know, what Detroit's going to look like in this game.

And they're going to be fighting trying to, you know, even if the bears or the Packers have the division in control, the Lions are going to be fighting for a wildcard spot, most likely. And so I think they're going to come in with serious business. And again, I've been saying the last couple of weeks, I think the Vikings going into Detroit, especially when we've seen how the Vikings have things, how things have gone for the Vikings since that game.

The Lions got to be looking at that game and saying, really, we lost to this team. And look at what they've been since we lost. them, I think the lions are going to be really mad that that game happened and they're going to take it to the Vikings on Christmas Day. And it's, I think this is going to be potentially a blowout at US Bank Stadium. I think that that's a very real possibility as well. And the main issue there is we saw J.J. McCarthy on short rest against Atlanta and it went really badly. And I think that even if the Vikings have done what they're saying, which is pare down the offense simplify, the problem with

pairing down and simplifying is it's really like a one week solution or a two week solution. If you start doing that, you become very, very easy for defenses to identify what your tendencies are. There's a reason why it's so complicated. Now, it doesn't have to be as complicated as Kevin O'Connell has had it over the last couple years. That I don't know. But when it comes to just, there's a baseline. And if you go below that baseline, teams will figure it out pretty quick. That's a panic button type of thing to do. Interesting to really tell everyone about it. I kind of wonder if that's a little bit of this is what we're dealing here with folks at the quarterback position. Not our fault. We had to dumb down the offense so he could

I don't know. That's kind of how I've interpreted some of it. But when it comes to, you know, just Detroit in general, if they're fighting for their lives, they've had the ability to prepare this time for what Brian Flores is going to do with the blitzes up the middle. I think they'll have a much better answer than they did before. Very talented still, this team. It would have been better if they had had Frank Rag now for them coming in here. But short rest oftentimes, and you see this on Thursday night football all the time, it's just whose team's more talented.

And that would be Detroit for this year, especially at the quarterback position. So that moves the Vikings to six and ten final game of the season against the Green Bay Packers. this is going to be fascinating too because where are the Packers at in the standings? Have they leapfrog the Bears for first place in the North? Is this a game that they have to win to kind of hold off the Bears? Are they playing starters? Right. Right. You know, so I think this is, and even if they have the division in control,

is this a situation where they're trying to win a game so that they can have a higher seed, you know, that kind of thing. So I think this is going to be a big, big game for the Packers. Packers. And I think they're going to show up ready to go. And I think this is going to be probably similar to that Detroit game where it's, it's ugly. And the Packers are going to be playing for a lot. I think the Vikings will, will play hard these last two games against these divisional opponents. But I just don't think it's going to be enough because I think the Packers and Lions are both better teams. And they're going to come away with with victories here.

Really depends on how much the Packers need it. Because if they are locked into who they're playing, then they will, I wouldn't play Jordan Love at that point. And I wouldn't play any of their wide receivers who matter and just, you know, play all backup types of players. And that's something the Vikings might need at that point. Because even if that is the case, if you put a 7 and 10 record down after being 4 and 8, then I think you can go, it was bad, but it's not embarrassingly bad. And we talked about this the other night when we had our roundtable is when fans asked about, hey, could there be major changes?

And what I said was, I don't think so. And I don't think, and I wouldn't do that. But there is a point where you get to where it's not respectable football. And when you're having, the last two weeks have been two of the worst offensive performance is literally of the last quarter century. I mean, literally that bad. If you're doing that, then, yeah, I mean, that's not. respectable football. That's not, like, you paid way too much money as the owners to be getting that out there. So, uh, I think they might need Green Bay to play not Micah Parsons, uh, in that game.

If they do, they probably do not win. And six and 11, man, that, that is, that's it. That's is, you are bordering on like a laughing stock of a season, which again, we sort of never saw coming that it could be this, this type of bad, but I think it's a very fair projection based on where they're at right now. I don't think they're the worst team in the league. I don't think they can't beat anybody the rest of the way, even though I said I wouldn't pick them. But just because you have no idea what's a quarterback on a given week, you can't pick four teams that you're not even sure if the quarterback's going to throw it to the other team on every other play. So, you know, I think six and 11 is enough to put everybody on notice for next year.

And also if JJ only goes, what is that three and two, the rest of the way to get them to, no, it's two and three, two and three, sorry. Two and three. If that's all that they're able to pull off, then, yeah, we get out that quarterback list and start talking about who's going to be under center because that means he probably didn't play well enough. They do have the rest of the roster. It means he didn't play well enough to earn himself, uh, even like the first chair going into training camp next year. 100% and you know look they the this regime no longer has the benefit of the doubt when it comes to making decisions on this position because they made the decision to move on from sam darnald as you've said many times over the last few days they decided to move on from 4300 yards and 35 touchdowns and 14 and 3 regular season they moved on from that and they just hand at the keys to J.J. McCarthy without any real competition in camp. I mean, Sam Howell was brought in to be the backup and he couldn't even maintain that role. That was so bad that they ended up shipping him out of town and having to bring in Carson Wentz to fill that backup role. But McCarthy wasn't challenged at all in the offseason and there was just kind of this assumption that he was going to be ready to go and you just plug him in and play. He takes

over for Sam Darnel and we just pick up right where we left off from last year. And it just, it, it's been the total opposite. And, you know, between injuries and just him not performing at the level that they need him to, it's been bad. And it's, it's a letdown. And to your point, I think it just puts everybody on notice that you better figure this out. Otherwise, there are a lot of heads that are going to roll in 2026. I was looking at this. Teams that are not eliminated yet. On Fanduil, the Vikings are plus 10,000 to make the playoffs.

So if anybody wants to get that bet in anytime soon, I'm always interested in looking at the win totals because I do want to talk about an alternate universe here and what could happen is still possible. Because seasons work in a funny way, right? Like there's 17 games, but the order of them matters so much to us, where the example of the Detroit Lions going, one in six. I think this happened to a Flores team in Miami as well, where one in six, and it just looks like Dan Campbell's a joke, it didn't work, biting people's ankles and knees

and everything is stupid and whatever. And then all of a sudden, wow, they like arrive and they end up nine and eight. And if they'd have been win loss, win loss, win loss, you'd have been like, oh, good season. But instead, it was chunked into those two different ways. So the Vikings right now on Fandul are plus 550 to win eight games, which means that, the betting market doesn't think it's insane. It thinks making the playoffs is insane, but it doesn't think that winning eight games is insane. So let me throw you that scenario and just tell me what you think, like how we would view it. If the Vikings still somehow got to eight, which would require four out of the next five winning this week, probably against Dallas, probably against New York, and then you split those last two games, what would we think of the 2025 season if the Vikings,

did get to eight games, eight wins. Well, I think in order for them to get to that point, it would mean that J.J. McCarthy has taken a significant leap from what we've seen so far. And I think if that happens miraculously, maybe, I think you have to feel pretty good about, you know, where you're headed. I would still caution from the assumption that you've got the quarterback position all figured out, even if he plays really well. I think what it does indicate is that at least you've escaped this being a total disaster.

If he finishes the season's wrong and you end up eight and nine because he plays really well, then I think it shows like, okay, there's still a chance for this kid to be the guy. but I think the focus into next off season still has to be can we bring in a guy that can push him a little bit because you don't want to, I mean, we've kind of proceeded this whole thing with caution through these first six starts that we don't want to give up on J.J. McCarthy after six starts.

And I think that's very true. But we also don't want to just assume that he's arrived after four or five really good games down the stretch of the season. And I think we have to feel cautiously optimistic about it, but I think it still falls on KOC and Kwayze to go out and find somebody that can push McCarthy and let him know like, hey, just because you played well at the end of 2025 doesn't mean that you've arrived and at this job is just automatically yours. We're going to bring in a guy that's going to push you and then you've got to go and win this job in camp.

And then if that happens and he plays well and he gets off to a good start in 2026, then I think people can feel a lot better about that. I agree. I think that there's a real fallacy there with the arbitrary endpoints is what they call it in baseball. Well, in his last 68 games, this guy has hit this. Like, well, that's great. What happened in 162? Or even better, the last, you know, two seasons or three seasons are probably more going to tell you the truth. There's a lot of truth in four and eight. There's a lot of truth in his starts where he's two and four and has these numbers. But we will increase the sample size of him playing. I think he's got very favorable defenses to do it against.

I mean, if you go to Dallas and say he goes 20 for 30 with two touchdowns, no picks and they lose because George Pickens gets 180 yards receiving, you might feel pretty good about that, but it's still one of the worst defenses in the league. They are playing a guy, Reddy Stewart, and no disrespect to him because he's played well in his role. But like, this is just where they're at. they are playing this guy that was a third string for the Vikings during training camp and they've had to play him.

And like relative to his non-draft status and where they got him from, and he's done a good job. But like, that's where Dallas is at on defense. Even if they've had some improvements in their front seven, you should be able to look a little bit better. But that doesn't mean we can eliminate what we saw against the Green Bay Packers,

which is some of the worst quarterback play that we have seen. And KOC just taking the keys away from JJ in that game and having them treat it like Tim Tebow in the first half. So, yeah, I mean, I think we can't erase from our memories the first six, but it's going to matter a lot. Here's what I would take away more than, because I agree with you. Like, don't, don't buy into that completely and just say, hey, Sam, howl you're coming back unless they're going with my plan that I laid out

the other night, which I really like. But unless that's the case, I think what it would say, though, is that all the talk about KOC keeping the guys pulling in the same direction, regardless of the record and everything else, the leadership in the locker room, where Jefferson is at, how he's handled himself. It would quiet all of that noise. Uh, because I'll actually use a phrase that Kevin O'Connell used today. He called it justified noise. And I'm like, thank you. Because they always, they always treat it as if it's like just utter nonsense. Like, no, man, they have the standings for a reason. And so he said there's a lot of justifiable.

noise that they're trying to avoid and focus on their jobs. I remember Sage, our friend Sage Rosenfeld saying this about Gary Kubiak, like that there were some years where things went bad for them and they try to fight like hell to get the guy eight wins because they loved Gary because everyone loves Gary. And I think, well, is that what we're going to see here or are we going to see games like what happened against Seattle where, you know, the defense is playing hard, but you're mostly just melting and then you know it's not a good look so eight games would i think mean a lot to kevin o'connell and his status and where he stands as as a culture builder and of trying to get

the most out of the quarterback i think it would redeem some of that but i would not say it's all fixed folks nothing to see here no problems for 2026 all good to go um so that's that's kind of how i feel about if it was the the best scenario the doomsday one i think we've already kind of been over and I think we all know is actually really good for them for their draft status. But I'm not sure it's really good in any other way other than clarity on McCarthy and draft status. And that is a little bit convincing. But I do think that you're talking about things looking very, very, very bleak for the whole

organization if you get to that point. Yeah. I mean, I think, yeah, four and 13 is best case scenario for, you know, having as high a draft pick as possible. But I think it also, in terms of how the Wilf's feel as owners, having owned this team for two decades, and we talked about, I brought that up the other night on our roundtable with Murph, you know, they haven't been to the playoffs enough, I think, for their liking in their two decades of owning this team.

And they don't like to be at the bottom of the division looking up at Green Bay and Detroit and Chicago. And so they're not going to be happy with that. You have a high draft pick? Cool. What you do with that could maybe, you know, change the landscape of your franchise if you get an elite level talent. But what that's going to do is it's going to put a lot of pressure on pretty much everybody.

And if you haven't made any changes after going four and 13, I think everybody's going to be going into 2026 really nervous. and, you know, walking on pins and needles. And that's never really a good feeling and never a good thing for any team. And you also have to think about, you know, the star players on your team, finishing four and 13 for a guy like Justin Jefferson, again, he's been a great soldier for this team for six years now. But that would be the worst season record-wise in his time here.

And that's uncharted territory for him coming from a program like, LSU winning national championships. The guy's expecting to win, man, and he's in the prime of his career. He's getting ready to go right into his just the teeth of the best years of his career where you're going to have him at your best, at his best. And if that's going to be wasted by going four and 13 or seven, you know, four and 13 this year and eight and nine next year, that ain't, that ain't ideal. And he's not going to be happy, I don't think.

manny hill picks the schedule we keep on rolling along as the season does every thursday regardless of what either one of us has going on so thank you very much for your time as always manny and we'll see you very soon you got it football football