Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - The Patriots are 'open for business' (part 1)

Episode Date: April 20, 2024

The Patriots' top decision maker said that they are "open for business" .. Matthew Coller analyzes what scenarios would have to come to fruition in order for the Vikings to get No. 3 off their hands Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and it's been a little while since we've done a live discussion here on the YouTube channel. Hopefully you guys have enjoyed all the interviews that we've had recently, including Eric Eager and Tej Seth with an analytics roundtable, and Mike Renner as well. We just premiered that one on the channel. Really good conversation with a game of am I wrong in that one? And Mike Renner finished with a prediction. If you were just watching that and you're jumping over here, his prediction is that the Minnesota Vikings will make a trade to the New England Patriots to get Drake May.

That is his Vikings draft prediction. And just today, in fact, it came out after we were recording that, so I didn't ask him about it. But just today, the New England Patriots, their head man of their draft, Elliot Wolfe, he's not their general manager. He's something else. Doesn't matter. He did a very long press conference with the Boston slash New England media. And within that press conference, he called them quote open for business. So here we are to talk about what that

business might be. Answer your questions, have a conversation, get some of your takes. And just, I would love to know from everybody in the chat a good place to begin would be how are you guys feeling we are one week away and i haven't really done a show talking about the magnitude of this thing i hope that to do that next week with somebody whoever i get on the show, to really discuss truly the magnitude of what is about to happen on draft night for the Minnesota Vikings. But give me a sense here. Give me your feeling. Describe it in three words. Where you're at with this. Are you quietly confident? Are you, I got a message from somebody earlier that they're having dreams about the draft

every single day. That's how much they're having dreams about the draft every single day that's how much they're thinking about it I like this from Scotty I'm tired boss that's a good place to start give me your three words on how you're feeling one week out from the decision 2024 Minnesota Vikings quarterback and we can dive into your thoughts on the Patriots saying they're open for business I also did look at some other Patriots reporters and the full quotes from Elliott Wolfe who is the director of scouting is his actual title and he also said he was asked if the team would be comfortable drafting one of the top three or four quarterbacks with the number three overall, one of the top three, I guess, says, I think we'd be comfortable

with it. So there you go. He is saying we're open for business, but also saying, I think that we'd be comfortable with it. So how to read into that exactly? I don't know. But the question for me comes down to how much are the Vikings willing to give up? And in what scenario would the Patriots actually say yes? So do we think that the Patriots are not as comfortable with those quarterbacks and would trade out because they don't believe that Drake May or JJ McCarthy is worth that high of a pick? Are they in on JJ McCarthy's worth that high of a pick. Are they in on JJ McCarthy and they think they could trade back with the Vikings, then potentially trade back up or stay at 11 and get JJ McCarthy. I also have here on my phone, Arif

Hassan's consensus draft board that he does every year that has some very interesting conclusions about the quarterbacks. So there's a bunch of different scenarios to go over here regarding the new England Patriots. One of them is just the simplest, most straightforward one is if Caleb Williams goes number one and Jaden Daniels goes number two, and the Patriots are not ready to take a quarterback and they think, ah, we're in a place where a quarterback might really, really struggle here with this supporting cast, which is so bad. They don't have a good offensive line. They don't have good wide receivers. There's really nothing there to work with. It's not some amazing running game like it was in Tennessee with Derrick Henry. We need years of drafting and developing and signing players.

So we're going to push that decision down the road because we don't want to be Carolina. I think what happened to Carolina last year would be a cautionary tale to the New England Patriots because Carolina was all in their owner saying we're drafting Bryce Young number one no matter what so then they trade up they give away DJ Moore a tremendous wide receiver they give up what ended up being the number one overall pick this year and then Bryce Young doesn't even look that great if you are the Patriots you might look at Bryce Young and go well why was Bryce Young so bad? I mean, number one, he might just be too small for this league.

That is a possibility. But also look at what he was dealing with around him. Now look at what is on the Patriots. KJ Osborne, old friend. That's wide receiver one or two for the Patriots. Kendrick Bourne, wide receiver one or two. They have an okay running back. receiver one or two for the Patriots. Kendrick Bourne, wide receiver one or two. They have an okay running back.

They don't have much as far as star talent on the offensive line. Do they have any argument for competing in the AFC East next year with Josh Allen, with the Dolphins that had a great season last year? And I don't buy into the New York Jets but still the New York jets have way more talent all over the field than the new England Patriots. I mean, if they put a rookie quarterback into that situation, you are talking what three wins, four wins. If the guy is not amazing right away. So that would have to be the case that the Patriots just view their situation as being so miserable and so bad roster wise that they are okay with trading back, or they have to think that they can either trade back up to get JJ McCarthy, or they could stay at number 11 and get the guy that

they want because there is no guarantee whatsoever that the top four are actually the top four in the NFL or within the minds of these teams. I shouldn't even say the NFL because all 32 teams don't get to give their decision. Only a handful of teams that are making this decision, the Vikings, Washington, the Patriots, they're the only ones whose opinion matter here for these quarterbacks. So if the Patriots say the Patriots, they, they looked at all these guys. They looked at McCarthy. They looked at, uh, Michael Pennix. What if the Patriots say, you know, actually Michael Pennix was the guy that we liked the most. And we sat down with, he jived with us the most.

We loved his arm. Robert Kraft came in the building and said, he reminds me of a Bledsoe, pick him at 11. Well, then they could trade back and still take a quarterback and get the Vikings draft capital. In that case, if that was their opinion. So there's a few different routes

that could lead to the Vikings trading with the New England Patriots. You know, I think that there are several paths. It's not just only one scenario that leads to them with the Patriots. It's also if the Vikings like Drake May, the Patriots like JJ McCarthy, the Patriots could also try to move back up. They could go back to 11, get some Viking draft capital, use less draft capital to move to five or four and still pick their guy and end up with a net positive.

Because I do think that teams these days, and we see a lot of trades in the first round, are really thinking a lot about how to squeeze every last ounce of draft capital out of what they have. And so maybe that is a strategy potentially for the New England Patriots. I don't think that Elliot Wolfe of the Patriots saying that they're open for business guarantees that they're open for any business and any offer, which is the other part of this. So we've established that there are scenarios in which they could want to trade out if they like other quarterbacks that are later on most people's boards, or if they don't feel that this is the time to draft a quarterback. And they think, well, we'd rather draft two offensive players.

At number 11, you probably got a wide receiver, a great offensive lineman. The way that really this draft plays out, if you're New England, if you trade back to 11 and 23, you could get one of the best, if not the best offensive tackle out there. That's a good place to start. And then in the back backend, there's all these wide receivers that could potentially be first round talents. And I mean, that's a good start for new England in there, in my mind, complete rebuild. Then they win three games

with Jacoby Brissett and whoever else, and they try to draft Shadur Sanders or whoever establishes themselves as the top draft pick, all of that works as a decent enough strategy for the Patriots if they aren't truly, truly in love with a quarterback. Or if the quarterback they're in love with is Drake May and he's taken at number two, then would the Vikings trade up for Jaden Daniels? I don't know if that's the guy that the Vikings would do it for. But if you're the Patriots, you do have to wait. You have to wait and see who goes number two before you make this decision, I think. Because if Washington's not telling anyone, which they're not, then New England and the Vikings both have

to wait till that number two pick is off the board. And I do think that we're going to spend the next week scrolling Twitter, turning on all the notifications and everything else, and probably not get this news about a trade until they're actually on the clock until new England is on the clock. And then we'll know, did they have a quarterback they wanted to take there all along? If was it Drake may, was it Jaden Daniels? That was our guy all along. The only guy for us and sorry, Vikings. We were just kidding that we were open for business.

Or do you think that that was a way of signaling, hey, somebody come beat this Vikings offer. I've got to think that the Vikings have already put an offer down to say, this is what we are willing to give you. Will you take it? And if you're the Patriots, you're probably thinking, well, we will take it. If, if it's not our guy at number three, if it's mayor Daniels has taken whichever one they like more or less, then they'll take it. If it's not, then they'll trade it. Maybe that's the way that they're looking. Uh, but there are so many different avenues that could lead to the Patriots decision here to trade with the Vikings that it remains a very plausible scenario. I don't want to call it likely because I still

think when you get an opportunity at the top of the draft like this, there's not that many seasons that you expect to end up at the top with multiple quality quarterbacks, because if their plan was to tank next year, well, remember when the Vikings tanked and they missed out on Andrew Luck, and then they got a tackle who ended up being not all that good. So you don't want to be that team. You don't want to kick it down the road and say, all right, well, next year, that's when we'll really draft the quarterback. But what if they don't have the quarterback on the board next year, as opposed to this

year, where they have multiple, very good quarterbacks that they could take at the top of the draft. So I would still lean toward the Patriots staying at number three and making their draft pick and the Vikings doing what we've kind of thought all along, which is maybe moving up to number four or number five or staying at number 11. But as far as the Vikings offer, so let's say that one of those situations happen. Let's just say that the Patriots love JJ McCarthy the most, and they actually think that they could get him later, that they could get him at 11 if they stayed. And we'll talk about the consensus board and what that suggests in a little bit here. But let's just say,

what do we think the Vikings would have to give up? What is too much? Where is the line? I was asking this to Tej Seth and Eric Eager the other day, and neither one of them really wanted to plant their flag on this is too much. So is it too much to go with 11-23 and next year's first if you're getting the number three overall pick? I do not think that that's too much. I think that that is a completely fine amount to send to the New England Patriots and that it's totally fair.

You switch picks, they end up getting still 11 in the first round, 23 to help them fill out their roster, and then next year's first from the Vikings, which should be considered pretty darn valuable because as of this moment, the Vikings are probably a seven win type of team. And if anything goes wrong, you could end up in a Carolina situation where you're giving up the top draft pick. So if you're in new England, that is pretty darn favorable for you. If you're getting those three picks, that is my line. Usually. Can you go farther than that? The four first round picks seems

pretty wild to me to this year. And then to the next two years, that feels like a bridge too far. It feels like you are reaching a little bit here. And I think when you're talking about maybe adding some additional third round capital down the road, then I'm a little more on board. I'm not too concerned about that. If you were talking about a third round pick to go on top of this, just to be able to sweeten the pot enough for them to finally say yes okay four first rounders is giving away your entire franchise for one player and one thing that stuck out to me with quesadilla fomenta that he said the other day at his press conference was he was talking about what are the odds of actually getting that guy who is your legendary quarterback.

So he said, any of us would sign up for four. He didn't say four picks, but I'm paraphrasing. Any of us would sign up for four picks if it resulted in Drake May being a superstar, right? We all agree with that because you've already got the left tackle. You've already got the wide receivers. You're you've already got a lot in place, a lot of young defensive talent. So you're not a total trash roster that is not going to be able to succeed. So if you think that the guy's going to be great, I mean, the chiefs are the example, but the bills are kind of an example of this, too, where the Bills lost players over the last couple of years. They had players decline, and yet they're within a field goal of potentially beating the Kansas City Chiefs. I mean, they are on the doorstep of going to the Super Bowl, and they did not have as good of a roster as they did a couple of years ago. And so we see that great quarterbacks can raise the level of

any roster, get the most out of players and give you a chance to be able to succeed. But what Kwesi said was, what are the odds of hitting on that type of quarterback? And the answer is they're not great. They're not impossible, but they're not great but they're not great it's not like there is a 50 chance that you find the next josh allen in drake may it's more likely that he'd be a notch down and that he would be even in the best case scenario a good quarterback that's why i've made that ceiling comparison of matthew stafford or eli manning and then then you go, all right, well, maybe this helps us. Maybe this helps us decide. So what are the odds that the guys Mahomes? Yeah. 10% is in the chat. I think it's that or less, right? I mean, Mahomes or Allen, there's only three to five quarterbacks

like that in the NFL at any given time throughout NFL history. It's not a very good chance. If even if we do by the math of say out of 32 teams, how many quarterbacks fall into that category? It's less than five. It's probably three, four. So 10% is about right. If are you giving up four first round picks for a 10% chance at greatness? No, but what if it's very, very goodness? So now if we expand this out a little bit and we say, all right, well, Mahomes and Allen are number one and two, but what about some of these other guys

that are really, really good? And we can go back a little bit in history, recent history, a Roethlisberger, who's not Brady or Manning, but really, really darn good. And then with a great franchise ends up winning super bowls, Philip rivers that had a great career in San Diego slash Los Angeles for a little bit, Philip rivers. Now, if you could get that or Eli Manning, would that be worth four first round picks? So this gives us an idea of how high the bar has to be, because even with Eli Manning or

Matthew Stafford or Phillip Rivers, there might be a part of you that goes, I don't know if that's even quite worth it, which means, I mean, I think that those guys are because they are good enough to win the Superbowl. As we've seen, Phillip Rivers probably should have won one, didn't quite get there, but they're all chunked into that same next level down, fantastic quarterbacks, franchise tenure. And that's another part of this as well, because if you're talking about giving up all these draft picks, yes, it will hurt you. But if this quarterback can be a long-term, an Eli Manning of Phillip Rivers, where you're talking about the whole year after year, this is your franchise quarterback,

then can you work around the fact that you gave up some first-round picks? The Vikings failed on some first-round picks, and it hurt them throughout the years. And so maybe that's your evidence that like, Hey, I mean, if you're going to draft a Mike Hughes or something, uh, you know, that's going to hurt you. Well, you, now you don't even have that pick, but think about how much those picks not working out, hurt the Vikings when they picked corners or even Garrett Bradbury is a good player, but not a transcendent great player, just kind of another guy at the position that hurts you. Right. And so the reason the Vikings weren't good enough with Kirk was somewhat because Kirk is limited, but somewhat

because Kirk is expensive and also somewhat because they missed on so many draft picks. So imagine instead of missing on them, you just don't have them at all. That means there's a lot more pressure to be able to spend that cap space. And that is the one counter argument. If you're saying, look, if you give up all those draft picks, you're not going to have enough elite talent to be able to compete for a Super Bowl, especially with Chicago, with the Lions having a good team, with Green Bay on the rise. The one counter argument would be you are one of the most, if not the most favorable franchise for free agents to join.

We've seen that back-to-back years from the NFLPA, and you're going to have many millions of dollars to spend in free agency or to acquire talent through trades. And you already have a good amount of young talent. When we look at the core of this team and who the players under the age of 25 are that will be here for the next five years, we've got some pretty good names on that list, including even just solid players. If they resign Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus is going to be here for years. Ivan Pace is going to be here. Jonathan Grenard signed a four-year contract. He's going to be here.

There's a lot to work with, but that other first round pick, that's the one that's extremely, extremely hard to give up. And, you know, the reason some of you are asking about, you know, Washington, the reason I wouldn't talk about Washington is just, I don't think they're giving up the pick for anything. They'll just do it. I mean, they're in a position where they have changed ownerships. They've been a wreck for a really long time. They desperately need to draft a quarterback there. They're not moving. They're going to pick their favorite guy. They had a speed dating thing. I don't know if you guys saw this, but they brought in a bunch of quarterbacks all at once and I think took them to

Topgolf. Topgolf's really fun. I wish I was invited, but huh? That was kind of an odd move from them. I guess getting one last look at all of these guys before they solidify their boards. My understanding is that in this few days before the draft, then it's all planned out. That's when they all decide. But I mean, I don't think that Washington would say yes to anything. Washington wants to get excitement. They want to get people in the building. They want to get a new quarterback to go with their new head coach to build around. The Patriots are much more of a solidified franchise that's been really freaking bad the last couple of years and could stay down there for a while.

Washington has more to give a quarterback as well. Terry McLaurin's a great receiver. They've got a few other guys. It's not like that's as bad. But, you know, I think that Washington is a position where you can't even talk yourself into how they would move out of the number two pick where the Patriots have mentioned numerous times. We are willing to do it. We are open for business. You know, we'll listen to that phone call. And are they hinting at, yeah, we've got an idea that we might do this. We are open for business. You know, we'll listen to that phone call. And are they hinting at, yeah, we've got an idea that we might do this. Are they preparing their fan base for the potential that they might do this? I thought of that as well. When I saw Elliot Wolf's comments

there, are they kind of telling their fans a little bit, Hey guys, you know, we might not get that quarterback you love, but this is better long-term. So I still, if I were doing pie chart of what I think is going to happen, I would still guess that the Patriots do draft the quarterback, but in the potential pie chart options, I would also throw out there that JJ McCarthy might be that quarterback. And there could be a scenario where Drake may is at four. And then, you know, now you're talking about, um, moving up to number four instead, giving up those three first. So I think where it does get tricky is if you're deciding how much else would you add other than the three first round picks onto the pot in order to make sure you get Drake May.

And going back to that odds discussion. So maybe it's 10% chance that you get true greatness. Number one, two, three quarterback in the league, but it's probably only 20% that you get really good, really, really good. 25%. What's more likely is that you get Jalen Hurts, you get Tua, you get Justin Herbert, who I would qualify as being a good quarterback, but not a great quarterback yet. He has the potential to be, but if he was true greatness, then Brandon Staley would still have a job.

He's just good. If the Vikings had Justin Herbert though, where are they at this moment? You would feel amazing about that. That's probably closer to what? Maybe 40%. And then if you can add the fact that you have Justin Jefferson, add the fact that you have Kevin O'Connell,

all these percentages get pushed up a little bit. So maybe it's 50%. Would you trade everything for a 50% chance that the guy could be Justin Herbert? Now that's a hard one because I'm not really sure that answer since Justin Herbert is not able to take his team over the top when they haven't had enough talent. He's just been good. He's put up good numbers, but hasn't been truly great. The same time they didn't have Justin Jefferson.

They had Keenan Allen's good player, but they didn't have Justin Jefferson they had Keenan Allen's good player but they didn't have the complete offense they didn't have the left tackle well they did have the left tackle they didn't have any defense how about that they didn't have a running game the Vikings can use that but they really didn't have a defense and going forward I do believe the Vikings with Brian Flores have raised up their floor just by having Brian Flores. And you probably, some of you saw the discussion that we media had with Brian Flores the other day about his head coaching situation. It's not going to happen. I don't think that Brian Flores is getting back in the head coaching ranks just because of the way that things played out in Miami.

And when you're suing the league, you're probably not getting that opportunity. That means Brian Flores could be here for a long time and build this defense from his vision. That's really what wrecks the Chargers, right? What wrecked the Chargers was the fact that they just had a terrible defense and Brandon Staley was not actually good at calling a defense or building a defense through the draft. But if the Vikings took Justin Herbert and plop them down here for the next three, five years, you have a chance to win a Superbowl every year, right? That's how i would look at it so if it's a 50 50 shot this is where the mind experiment gets real interesting to me with the patriots if it is a 50

50 shot that your guy becomes justin herbert or better is that worth trading for first round picks for folks we all have smartphones and we know that they are pretty amazing, but they can also be amazingly distracting, especially when we're around other people. So U.S. Cellular wants us to reset our relationship with our phones by putting down our phones for five. That's right. A company that sells phones wants us to put down our phones and see what we can find. Learn more at uscellular.com slash built for us. That's uscellular.com slash built for us. The other percentages are not you. He's just a bust. He's Johnny Manziel. The other, the other 50% is not that the other 50% is not that. The other 50% is just different shades of not good enough. It's Baker Mayfield or it's, I don't know.

There's been a number of quarterbacks, Carson Wentz who gave them one chance at it and was pretty good, but is not great, right? And not a true franchise long-term quarterback. So there's the other side of the 50% that maybe you could have one shot at winning with, but it's unlikely you're going to get that shot. If you give up all your draft capital, unless you have some other plan to acquire really great players,

which they may. So that that's where it gets really difficult is I think that we all know there's a baseline for this, which is you could be in for those three first picks and not feel like it's going to crush you. I would not feel that way because really you're swapping your first one. So that's, you know, okay, that's fine. The second one you acquired just by moving up, it's really kind of like a second round pick. And then for next year, that's the one you're not super happy about, but you can manage by using your cap space. When you start adding more onto it, okay, all right, now you're getting to the point where it will hurt you long-term that not only do you not have those players, but you also don't have the cap advantages that go along with those players. So trying to work my way through this as the Patriots were in the news today, talking with

their media. And there's just a lot of different ways that this could play out with new England and with the top of the draft and a lot of difficult decisions for the Vikings, because if it was just a, which quarterback do they like, then it would be all right, well, we'll just see who they pick, but it's not only what quarterback do you like? It's what quarterback do you like at what price? So how much better is Drake May than JJ McCarthy? How much better is JJ McCarthy than Bo Nix or Michael Penix? Do we think they're all going to be there? And Elliot Wolf did drop something. Let me make sure I got the quote correct. He dropped something about six quarterbacks in this draft. And so I think clearly the NFL is thinking, at least we know this about the same quarterbacks we're thinking about as being the six. He referred to a top six quarterbacks, called it a unique year at the position. I totally agree. And that's why, by the way, that's why him calling it a unique year. I have suggested on the show that if you end up with Michael Penix or Bo Nix, it's not

a tragic outcome and you shouldn't call it Christian Ponder and freak out and everything. Sorry, I wasn't supposed to say his name on the show, but it's just a different year. This doesn't happen very often. It's probably happened a couple of times ever in history where you have prospects of this caliber that are available in the draft. So the fact that he called it a unique year and referred to six quarterbacks

and the fact also that all these teams have been visiting with these six quarterbacks suggests that they're looking at all of them as potential top draft picks. And if the Vikings end up sticking at 11, because they don't want to give up all those first round picks, then you have an opportunity to build around that player with extra first round draft picks and have the potential to be great that way. I tend to lean toward, I tend to lean toward. It's a good idea to trade up to number

three with the Patriots. If they're willing to do it under whatever circumstance it comes about. If you're not giving up more than those three first round draft picks, if you're doing more than that, then I wouldn't say it's a terrible thing. I would just say it's really risky and it's going to feel like the mountain got steeper and the bar was raised higher for this quarterback. If you trade more than three firsts, then Drake may can't be just good. He can't be Carson Wentz and give you a chance. He's going to have to be better than that. He's going to have to be in that range of someone like Philip Rivers

or above that. He's probably going to have to be better than Justin Herbert, who he gets compared to. And then that just sort of shows you the formula. It's got to be this high in order for, you know, to make it work. I mean, that's, that's a little daunting, right? Versus the bar is lower for Bo Nix to succeed at 11 or Michael Penix or JJ McCarthy at number 11. Then the bar is just lower. You don't have to, he doesn't have to be as good for the team to be great. If you end up picking him at 11 and pick somebody else at 23 and win five or six games with Sam Darnold and pick somebody else next year in the top 15. And this is the formula that has made this draft so interesting. It's not just, Hey guys, do you like this quarterback? I kind of like that

quarterback. It's how much would you pay for this quarterback? It's like a deal or no deal kind of game, except for with quarterbacks. Something else I want to bring up regarding quarterbacks, I'm sure you're shocked that I'll continue to talk about them, is the Arif Hasan consensus draft board. If any of you listened to my discussion with Arif from maybe a week ago, very good one, really fun. Go back and check that out.

Arif and I talked about what you can kind of use at your disposal and to some extent, the consensus draft board to understand what's going to happen or did your team reach or what is the wisdom of the crowd suggest about your quarterback? So what he does is he takes 75 different draft analysts. A lot of draft analysts out there take 75 different draft analysts and creates a consensus big board based on the average rankings of all these players. Okay. So here is what it says about the quarterbacks and where they all rank by Arif Hassan's consensus board. Hopefully you were following that. Bunch of draft boards all jammed together.

What does the wisdom of the crowd say where they belong on a big board? So it's not a mock draft. This is how silly this is. It's not a mock draft. It's a big board, which means just if you're ranking all the players where you believe they should be as a prospect, that makes it hard to do for a quarterbacks. I understand, but here's what it says. It has Marvin Harrison jr. Is the top player in the entire draft with Caleb Williams right there. And then Malik neighbors and Drake may. So the only quarterbacks that are consensus draft board

top five are Caleb Williams and Drake may. That makes sense to me because of the way that the whole draft season played out and the whole college season played out that Drake may was always there as number two until Jaden Daniels won the Heisman and had a crazy year and sort of rose his stock all the way up. And so you could see why still the big boards would favor Drake May over Jaden Daniels because Jaden Daniels had more of a late rise. And there are some folks who just don't love Jaden Daniels as more of a late rise. And there are some folks who just don't love Jaden Daniels as a top prospect that have him much lower on their board. I think somebody that dynamic and explosive belongs at the top. I don't make a big board because I'm not a draft analyst.

I'm a Vikings reporter, but if I did, I would put Jaden Daniels pretty high, but the overall consensus, what this tells us is from all the people who cover the draft, we've talked about how, Hey, Chris Sims doesn't love Drake may, or I forget who else, whatever other draft analyst doesn't like him. What this tells you is that the draft analysis world as a whole believes that Drake may belongs as the number two overall pick. So that's what, that's what the wisdom of the crowd thinks. So I go down the draft board and I'm scrolling looking for, I'm seeing a lot of defensive players that you'd love to have the

Vikings get. You're seeing your, uh, your Dallas Turner, your Quinn Young Mitchell, Terry and Arnold, Jared verse, uh, Liatu Latu. All right. Okay. Why am I still scrolling? Here's Byron Murphy. I'm still scrolling until number 22, which is where JJ McCarthy comes in and keep in mind again, it's not a mock draft. It's a big board. So you're just ranking them as prospects. But the crowd in this case is much different in terms of the gap between Drake May and JJ McCarthy. And I was listening to Dane Brugler talk earlier today about how early on in last year, he was talking about maybe the potential of JJ McCarthy as a first round pick. And he felt like he was the outlier because there weren't a lot of draft

analysts talking about McCarthy. And then it's gotten to this point after they win the national championship, the combine where he's thinks that McCarthy belongs as a mid to late round first round pick, but he's probably going to go in the top six. So, you know, it's kind of funny how the draft works, right? But what the consensus board captures, I think is my concern about giving up too much for JJ McCarthy. As always, I'm going to adhere to what Kevin O'Connell thinks more than what I think or a consensus board thinks. But it does suggest that if you're watching JJ McCarthy and you're not thinking to yourself, oh my gosh, this is the next great quarterback. You're not alone. There are a lot of draft analysts who are looking

at McCarthy and saying he's not a top five in the draft type of prospect, even if he's going to go in the top five. And this has to be, I don't know if the Vikings consider a consensus board or not. My guess is probably not. But if they have a similar feeling that JJ McCarthy is more of a top 25 prospect, which is still very good and you can win with it, then they would not say though, yes, this is a guy we want to trade three firsts for. Maybe it's a guy you trade two firsts for, maybe it's a guy you trade no firsts for. So it is, I agree with Ben. It says Arif's consensus board and Brugler's beast are a great pair. That is for sure.

I mean, if you're looking through trying to find all your draft information, that's two very good resources. We have a lot of creative people in the world that find ways to help us out to understand what's going on in the draft. Because if I had to watch all these players myself, I would be very confused. I've watched all the quarterbacks and I'm still confused based on what everybody says about them. Now, you're probably wondering then how far ahead in the consensus big board

is J.J. McCarthy from the other two quarterbacks. Got to do some more scrolling. Got to do some more scrolling, got to do some more scrolling. And now we've reached number 35, which is Michael Penix and number 38, which is Bo Nix. So then you start to ask yourself this question. If you drafted Bo Nix at number 11, when the consensus board said 38, are you okay with that? I am mostly okay with that. I would say completely okay with that because that means that Kevin O'Connell spent time with him. He worked him out. He coached him up and he decided, no, no, the outside world doesn't know what they're talking about. I know what I'm talking about.

We're picking him at 11. I am good with that. Even if it's at 11, would you prefer that it's 23? Oh, yes. Would you prefer that you could get Byron Murphy or Terry and Arnold at 11? Oh, of course. Of course, you'd rather pair your quarterback with some amazing defensive prospect, but you got to make sure you get one of them. So if it ends up being Pennix or Knicks versus the consensus board, that would suggest that the Vikings reached. But here's the problem

with using the consensus board for quarterbacks. It's not good at quarterbacks. It's good at a lot of things. I think it's borderline great at most other things. I don't think that the draft analysis world is good at all at evaluating which quarterbacks belong where. And a major part of that is that every team is looking for different and very specific things. So if you're ranking just on raw skills, what you think the guy can be, I mean, if you're doing an evaluation of a quarterback as a draft analyst, you're only looking at them saying, all right, what's my big picture thing here. If you dropped them into a neutral team, how would he do? But you're not dropping him into a neutral team. The Minnesota Vikings are dropping him into a neutral team how would he do but you're not dropping him into a neutral

team the Minnesota Vikings are dropping him into their team so if they end up with Knicks or Pennix the consensus board will suggest that they reached and I will not care and a lot of you what will happen on draft night is you'll say this guy's going to be a bust and I will also not care you're already in the comments saying if they get Bo Knix, he'll be a bust. I don't care if that's your opinion. I care about the opinion of the person who's making the call, which is going to be Kevin O'Connell. And if it works for him, then I think it has every bit the chance to succeed as anything else. And we are talking about quarterbacks. And this is why I go back to that Elliot Wolfe comment where he said it's unique.

It's a unique year. It's different. It's not just, hey, there's two quarterbacks who are good. Everybody else has almost no chance. This is a year where the worst guy you think, you think, draft analysts think, who are wrong all the time, they think the worst guy threw 45 touchdowns and three picks

and got sacked three times and is in the Heisman race and was a five-star player coming out and runs a four or five. Like that's the worst guy, according to all of you. So I think that the draft analysis world has identified players in the past as first round picks who have been not anywhere close to that. And they've also underrated significantly players like Patrick Mahomes, for example, who was not high on consensus boards and ends up becoming the best quarterback. Josh Allen was not that high on consensus boards either. He wasn't the number one pick. He certainly would be if you redrafted him. So I don't have much trust in the outside world's ability to evaluate quarterbacks and look, are the Vikings going to be perfect? Is Kevin O'Connell flawless and can never get fooled? No,

but on draft night, when they make that pick, then he has a whatever equal chance of anybody else that's picked at that spot. So if they pick at 11, that means they think he was worth 11, which means he's got whatever other chance anybody else that's taken in the top 12 picks at quarterback has ever had. That's how I would look at it. And I would also focus on how does this guy fit? Because Kevin O'Connell talked about how fit is going to be by far the most important thing. And NotATwerk asks, where was Mahomes on his big board? I don't know that Arif was doing the consensus big board yet when Mahomes came out. There is another website called mock draft database where you can go back and find that. And I think he was,

I think he was 20th on the, uh, mock draft database, big board. Uh, that's a very similar concept. It's a consensus. So I just, I mean, there's been so many examples of the quarterbacks being way different and some have worked and some haven't for whatever other different reasons. But when it comes to these quarterbacks, I just think that if they do the right thing by the economics of the decision and they get the right fit guy, then you're going to have a great chance for it to succeed. So if you have Bo Nix at number 11 and you still get to draft number 23, which is going to be a top 10 defensive player in the entire draft. Now I'm saying, I know Mahomes was taken at 10, the big board, the consensus big board had him farther back. Right. Or are you

saying that a reef, a reefs, big board had had him at 10. Um, because I recall a lot of draft analysts not being high at all on Patrick Mahomes. And so there has been quarterbacks that have been taken higher that have succeeded. There's been, um, you know, Oh, um, mock draft database. He was 10th on mock draft database. Is that right? Um, I thought I looked this up not too long ago, but either way, the point just being that there's been examples either way. I looked through this for an article that I did not too long ago, where I took the consensus board versus where the guys were picked. Some years they were right on some years they were way off. It was hard to figure which was which.

2020 is a good example of a draft where the consensus boards were right on for where the guys were picked, but then all of them turned out to be really great quarterbacks. And then 2021, a lot of people thought that Mack Jones was the top draft pick and they took Trey Lance and all those guys were no good. So it's impossible to figure out. We can use all these tools. We could try to, you know, finagle while this will kind of work with my narrative or whatever I believe. I don't like Knicks because whatever draft analyst I like doesn't like them. Well, how can any of us really know? What we know is that whichever guy they take is going to have

a great resume. There's not any one of these quarterbacks that are in the first round that has a bad resume that has a Mitch Trubisky, great example, or Daniel Jones, where you go. I mean, I don't know where, where's, where's the numbers or where's the, you know, where's the skill that says this guy's supposed to be way better than everybody else. Right. Those were confusing. Nobody that they draft in this, in this draft is going to be confusing. It's really only about how much they're going to give up to get them. If they give up three firsts for McCarthy, I wouldn't call it confusing. I'd call it a little scary, call it a little scary to give up that much for a quarterback whose biggest talking point is, well, it's about what he's going to be, not what we saw him actually be.

And that, that, that, that sounds like a little bit on the, on the scary side, right? As opposed to, Hey, I can point to Bo Nix and show you, this is where he was great across the board. And it's really amazing how some of the draft analysts through the years have just seen these things differently. So it's a fascinating conundrum that the Vikings have here. I would love to know how high of a price they think it's worth to go up and get Drake May versus JJ McCarthy. If they actually like one of the other quarterbacks better. I mean, gosh, it is a, we're

in such an interesting place right now with the Minnesota Vikings. And I think that what Elliot Wolf did was he just poured a little bit of gasoline on this discussion that was like, all right. I mean, uh, you know, here, here we go. Like we're open for business. So feel free to give us a call. So, you know, I guess, I guess we're going to start to find out over the next week. We are not that far away, but, uh, you guys have been lighting up the comments. So, uh, give me, shoot me some questions questions shoot me some thoughts here uh that we could talk about for a little bit because i was i was i was re-energized in the

trade-up discussion by elliot wolf so thank you new england patriots media for uh firing that up today uh let's see sue says uh vikings are too scared to trade the farm to move up and get their guy then they should reconsider tanking. It's very clear that they do not consider tanking because they didn't tank to get top quarterbacks over the last two years. So they were never going to do that. I don't think scared is the right way to phrase it because as Kweisi Dafflementa said, you have to have a walkaway price for everything. I think that's true, right? No matter how much you want a car, if you go to the lot and they tell you, sorry, this car is $75,000. All right. I wanted that car, but I don't want it at $75,000,

no matter what it's going to do for me. And I probably lose the metaphor somewhere along trying to use a car example because the quarterback is so important, but at some point, how about this? I can afford the $75,000 car, but I can't afford the insurance on it. So if I pay that, then I won't be able to get the insurance. I won't be able to put gasoline in it. That's kind of how it would be for trading for first round draft picks for Drake May. I can afford to give you these draft picks because I have them and it's going to be great because you're going to come in and be the shiny thing. But can I give you what you need to succeed? And the answer is maybe yes, but it's a lot

less toward yes. If you're giving up more draft capital, that's, they have to do that. It's not scared. It's just, that's the way life has to work in the NFL when you're making these moves. Uh, the Wong, I think is your name. Uh, sorry if I mispronounced that, uh, let's see for pick 11 and 23. If not only they just stay put new England, uh, probably picks, uh, Marvin Harrison jr. With no partner to trade with that Arizona neighbors, we could trade with Atlanta or Chicago. Well, not Chicago. Chicago is not giving you your quarterback, but I get what you're saying. Uh, you know, I've actually kind of thought about this. Now, I still think if New England stays, they're going to pick a quarterback.

But there's also this J.J. McCarthy universe where you trade to seven instead. If the New York Giants do not want him, if the Giants decide that they're taking Brock Bowers, then you jump up to number seven, potentially if New England stays and then Arizona doesn't trade out and takes Marvin Harrison, the Chargers stay and take Joe Alt. Then you get to six and you go, all right, giants, what are you doing? And they walk up and they go, the New York giants have selected. And we're like, it's going to be McCarthy. It's going to be, and then they go Brock Bowers. Oh, okay. Now you trade up to seven. Now you don't have to give up the farm and you've got

yourself a pretty interesting scenario. Or you could just say, you know what? We're going to dare somebody else to give up their farm for McCarthy. But if he's really your guy, then you want to go do that. Aaron says, none of these guys are a sure thing. No risk it. No biscuit. I agree. I agree. My understanding is just my feeling about Kweisi Adafo Mensah is that I don't think

that Kweisi Adafo Mensah came here to try to keep the plane in the air. I don't think that he, whatever metaphor you want to use to keep the car on the road, to hit the ball in the fairway. I think that he came here to try to go for it and win a Superbowl. So if that's his mentality, then he might throw another log on the fire or another, whatever chip to the table. I don't know. I'm screwing up metaphors left and right, but you get what I'm saying.

He might say, all right, all in kind of thing. Because this is your shot. And that's kind of where I started talking about the magnitude of it. And I haven't really, because I've been so focused on the players, the reports, the draft guide that I'm working on, purpleinsider.com is going to come out Monday. So I've just been horse blinders with the players and getting every draft analyst on and just being like, what do you think? Football, which quarterback?

But as we get closer, I'm starting to feel it, right? The magnitude of this decision. This is one where your franchise has reached a fork in the road and there really are three ways you can go straight on this and end up with just a guy but the fork in the road is usually when you land at this spot you are going to hit on this quarterback and make the right decision and you're going to be in the mix to compete for a super Bowl for real, not this bogus 8.5 win Vegas over under, maybe if everything goes right and we make every final field goal

and we get every last win or whatever. Not that, but legitimate Super Bowl contention. That's if you hit big. If you hit good, you can still have a year or two years where you could bring it all together and spend all your money bring it all together and spend all your money and go all in and have an actual shot, especially in the NFC where, you know, if Caleb Williams hits and Jordan Love continues to be good, it won't be easy, but it's not Mahomes

over there. So you still have a shot. There's sort of the other direction. And then there's the direction that none of you want to talk about because it's too scary, which is the direction where it goes wrong. And then what happens? And then who's not having their job anymore? Or does Sam Darnold somehow become a good quarterback here? And Kevin O'Connell keeps his job. Do they find Brock Purdy in the seventh? Like then it becomes a really wild scenario, but this is a decision that is going to send this franchise in a new direction that none of us know where it's going. And that has been so fascinating to talk about, but is also, you know, for a lot of you, I asked you for your couple of words to describe it. And most of them were either let's freaking go, or I'm really scared. Those were

basically the two ways that you guys described your feelings. And for me, I just think it's, it's just really intense. And if you're and you're looking at this going, I have to toss in one more third, let's go for it because I don't want to regret it. That's probably the biggest thing that's important for them is you don't want to go back years from now and say, you know what? We had this offer on the table. We didn't do it. Why didn't we do it? Why didn't we make that one more trade up? Dave says, I love Knicks, not as much as May, but don't trust McCarthy to get on the field. Yeah. I mean, I think that McCarthy does a lot of things well that could make him, he feels like a guy that's a high floor, so to speak sort of a, I mean, in the worst case scenario,

is he a Colt McCoy or something like where he can get on the field and maybe win some games for you, but he's not going to be different. There are a lot of people that love Bo Nix and, you know, Mike Renner was one of them. He and I were just talking about that on that other video, if you want to go back and watch it after we're done here. But he was talking about really liking Bo Nix. And even if the consensus is not in his corner, there are a lot of analysts who look at him as someone who could be very good as a fit for the Vikings. So I just, the economics of this are important. They're a major part of it until we start talking the way I just was about the

magnitude. And then you go, you know what? I don't know if I care. And then you go back to the history and you go, Oh wait, sometimes the fifth quarterback taken is the one that actually works out. Uh, let's see. Aubrey, uh, says, uh, open for business means may is going to Washington. Now that is possible. That is very, very possible. What is today's rumor of the day? I mean, is that Elliot Wolf? Is that what we're talking about here? I don't know. Was there another rumor that you saw that you want to throw out there for rumor of the day? Sometimes rumor of the day can be hard to figure out because it might be a fake account that's starting a fake rumor because somebody is a sociopath. So, um, not always exactly, uh,

locked in with those rumors of the day. Uh, yeah, I get this email constantly miles percentage chance that we swap swap picks with the Falcons. And I just don't know how to answer this question because when things are very, very unlikely, somebody sent me a message today and said, no, are they going to trade Justin Jefferson? And it's like, no, I mean, I don't know if, if I tell you that it's possible that the NFL comes in at the very last moment on the day before the draft and swings a sledgehammer on the Falcons and says, you're swapping first round picks. I would be shocked. I would be what, how are they, are they seriously doing this on the day before the draft or whatever? Now we're four or five days before the draft. Are they, what,

what, what is happening here? I guess tomorrow is Friday, uh, you know, news dump day, but come on, that can't be serious, right? Is it possible? I guess, but I really don't think that what Kirk cousins did or talked about is anywhere near egregious enough for the NFL to just come in on the last day before the draft and say, you know what you're picking eight and you're picking 11 whoop, because the value of eight versus 11 is enormous. I mean, that would be a really, really harsh penalty for Kirk Cousins. What did he admit to? Talking to some assistant coaches or something?

I mean, was that really it? I just, to me, this feels like we have this stretch of boredom a little bit or a lack of big news stories between free agency comes to an end, slows down, NFL draft starts. There's a couple of weeks in there where we don't have a whole lot. So some people needed the clicks and the discussion and started talking about

this, but what's more realistic as far as this tampering thing goes is 2025 fourth and a fifth swap, not number 11 and number eight. Again, is it possible? I always have to say that everything is possible because this is the NFL and these are the Minnesota Vikings. And the things I've seen since I've been here, I mean, have been pretty improbable, I would say. So that's how I'd put it. Percentage chance that they swap picks this year with number eight and 11 is very low, very, very low. I just, that's something I haven't really wanted to talk about. Cause I just don't buy that. It's going to happen.

Hey everybody. That was part one of our purple insider YouTube live stream part two, coming up on the podcast feed very soon. So keep an eye out for that. Also make sure you go to purple insider.com and check out the Purple Insider newsletter. The draft guide is coming out on Monday. So much stuff in there, essays, profiles of every quarterback, so much more. And you are really going to want to check out the YouTube page if you want to jump in on these live streams. But not only that, a very special draft project going up on YouTube really soon. So go to the Purple Insider YouTube page as well. Thanks everybody. And keep those eyes out for part two

coming up soon here on the channel. Appreciate it.