Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - The Will Ragatz Show: Anonymous executives and starting chances for Vikings rookies

Episode Date: May 12, 2022

Sports Illustrated's Will Ragatz talks with WCCO Radio's Paul Hodowanic about comments from anonymous executives about Kwesi Adofo-Mensah's first draft. They also discuss the starting chances for Andrew Booth Jr. and Will takes Vikings fan questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, welcome back to another episode of the Will Raggetts show on Purple Insider. If you missed last week's episode or missed our announcement, my name is Will Raggetts. I've covered the Vikings for SI.com since 2019 and been a guest on Purple Insider with Matthew Collar for a while, but now hosting my own weekly version of the podcast. You can go check out last week's episode was the debut where I had Thor Nystrom of NBC Sports Edge to talk about the Vikings draft. And today, very happy to be joined by Paul Hodwanek of Purple Insider and WCCO. Paul, how's it going, my man? Good. Well, excited to be on with you. I was excited to see

that you were getting your own podcast. Obviously, you've been on the podcast. You came on the YouTube show a couple of times. So excited to have you in the Purple Insider ecosystem and for you to have your own show. And I'm honored to be a guest. Hopefully, you'll invite me back. Hopefully, I don't do so terribly that I'm just a one-time guest. I hope to be reoccurring. So I'm excited. I think you'll definitely be a recurring guest. I like that word ecosystem to describe kind of the whole Purple Insider thing we got going on. But with the Vikings, there's some exciting stuff coming up this week that we can't really talk about yet because it hasn't happened. The schedule release is Thursday night. And then Rookie Minicamp starts on Friday and then OTA is going forward. So there will be a lot of great coverage of that on the purple insider

podcast feed. But for now, we'll kind of look ahead to those, to, to those things specifically the rookie mini camp. And I still want to talk some more about this draft that is, it's almost two weeks ago at this point. And specifically how Kweisi Adolfo Mensah handled things in his first draft as the GM is really interesting to me. And there was an article that came out. Some people may have seen this from the athletics, Mike Sando, where he talked to some anonymous NFL executives and got their reaction to the draft for all 32 teams. And there was some criticism of Adolfo Mensah and how he handled specifically the trade with the Lions on day one.

And that's something that's gotten talked about a lot. It has gotten critiqued. It's really been an interesting discussion because the contrast of the new, where the trade he did with the Lions, it was a win for the Vikings based on the new charts that measure outcomes and talent cliffs and contract surplus contract value and things like that. Based on getting the three picks in the range of the top 70. But based on the traditional charts, the Jimmy Johnson chart, wherever the ones that have been around forever, where each pick has a point's value, it was a loss. So the critique is mainly that this may have been the right value and he may

have thought this was the right move to make, but he could have gotten more based on the precedent. So I'm going to read a quote quick from an anonymous NFL executive. He said, I get that in his mind, you compare and contrast the two scenarios. And in his mind, he liked the other scenario better, but you set a precedent for future trades. They already know you're an analytics guy. So you're probably going to want to trade down. And then with your first trade, you go pretty far from the traditional point system.

So it sets the tone. Maybe our first offer will always be lower because we know it is quasi and he will want to trade down. Now there's some more in here as well. There's people saying, somebody said that looked like they were trading want to trade down. Now, there's some more in here as well. There's people saying, somebody said that it looked like they were trading just to trade. And just another kind of reiteration of maybe it was the right move, but you left value on the table. You needed to get more because of what the market is. Now, I have some thoughts on this, but Paul, I know you wrote about this as well. What was kind of your initial reaction to seeing these quotes from these

executives and, and how Kweisi did with this trade? Yeah, I think it reinforced to me what we've talked about a lot, which is everyone kind of doesn't know what they're doing in the draft in terms of it's just so random. Even the best teams only are successful just a little bit over half the time with their picks. Like no one is amazing at this and everyone's going to have opinions on trading down, trading up value, whatnot. But yeah, they, you know, one of the execs says it's looked like they were trading just to trade. They got some interesting picks. Maybe it worked out. I don't

know. Yeah. Maybe it worked out. I don't know. And that's kind of the biggest theme is that we won't know for a few years. And I mean, I think generally this response partially has to do with Kweisi Adofo Mensah's priors in terms of coming from an analytics background, having the economics degree. Everyone in the league has either a preconceived notion of how Kweisi Dofamensa is going to operate because of what they've heard of him or have a kind of a really good feel of what he might do. And so, yes, maybe the analytics move is to trade down, but not every analytics GM is just constantly trading down every time. That was the scenario for the Vikings this time. But I found the quote just about the precedent,

them setting the precedent that maybe we'll offer Kweisi Dofomensa like lower trade value, like to try to get him to trade. I don't necessarily buy that. I think in general, Kweisi has a chart. He's going off the chart. I don't think if it was horrible value, he would have done it. And I also think this year's draft without any quarterbacks to kind of bulk up the trade market, like no trades were

getting crazy amounts of value. There were no teams trading back in the first round to pick up an extra first round pick. Like we've seen in many, many prior drafts. This was just not the draft where you were going to get premium picks in future years for this year. It just wasn't the draft for that. This draft was known to not be super, super heavy at the top. It plateaued after 10, 12, 15 picks. And so I don't think this is a referendum on how Kweisi Adolfo-Mensah is going to do things in his entire tenure.

And I didn't think it was him taking lesser value. I think he looked at the board and said, I think this plateaus, and I think we're at the plateau, and we're going to move back. And I think he can honestly use some of this to his advantage. If people think he's always going to trade down and they think he's not getting good value, but he feels like he's getting good value with a new chart that he's using. I feel like you should trust Kweisi with one thing and that's the numbers. And if he feels like the numbers line up correctly with these trades, maybe these execs, maybe Kweisi could kind of turn this on them and think, Oh,

they think we're they're getting a good deal. Well, actually we feel like we're going to get a really good deal. So it didn't feel like he was overwhelmed or over his head or being taken advantage of. This really just feels like two different philosophies and maybe two different inputs that they were kind of using to kind of judge these trades. And Kweisi thought he came out on top and some other GMs thought he came out on top, but really that this article is just a lot of, maybe it worked out, maybe it didn't. I don't know if I like the trades. I don't know.

We kind of have to wait and see. So I don't think this is a big judgment referendum on Kweisi that he did a horrible job. But I'd love your input. Yeah, no, I think you made a lot of good points there. And I would agree with a lot of that. I don't think this is something that Vikings fans should freak out over. Like, oh, our GM doesn't understand how the market works. And this was one draft, right? And I think there was a bit of kind of a shock because Kweisi is this analytics GM. He has a different

background. He didn't, he's not the Rick Spielman where he came up through scouting and all that. So there's a little bit more attention put on his first draft and people were curious how it was going to go. And then to make a trade like that, to go back from 12 to 32 was a big thing. And that was a lot of people are going to have opinions on that. But like you said, this was one draft. I don't think this means that Kweisi is going to trade down in the first round every single year or just be super, super

adherent to trying to move back and accumulate additional picks, because maybe there will be years where that's not what the board says you should do based on how they view the talent cliffs and the spread of of talent throughout the first few rounds. I think your point was a good one that the quarterbacks weren't really there. And I think that was a big factor. People have pointed to wanting to get a 2023 first round pick in this Lions deal. And if you look at last year, the Bears moving up to get Justin Fields, they went from 20 to 11 and they got a lot more

than the Vikings did moving from 32 to 12 this year. They got a future first and a few other picks as well. But there wasn't that quarterback that, that somebody wanted to go up and get at 12, which would have raised the price and, and you could have kind of played teams off of each other. I mean, we thought maybe Malik Willis would go that high. He ends up going in the third round.

Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback taken in the first. So this was, I think that's important just because all we're looking at, like our history, we're looking at history to judge this trade and what they got for this trade, but this was an historically bad quarterback draft. So in most any other draft, if they made that similar move, they're probably getting more for it just because of the environment around it and kind of the circumstances of that draft with this draft. It just wasn't there. So when we're using history to judge it, it, it's a little bit flawed because normally

we'd have there just be kind of baked in some idea that that could be moved up for a quarterback or a quarterback trade has already set a market. It just didn't. And then they kind of fleece the Packers with the next trade, which everyone loved. So it, it feels like an overreaction to say, oh, we can offer Kweisi nothing and he's going to take it just because he likes to trade down. Yeah, I was going to mention that as well, that they turn around and just destroy the Packers based on the traditional charts

that they didn't get great value for on that first trade. So that kind of shows you right away that maybe a precedent hasn't been exactly set like that executive said. But yeah, I mean, this was a specific situation. I will say, I think it is not completely unfair to say that maybe Kweisi could have gotten more. We don't, because we will never know what conversations were had over the phone on, on in the draft room. We'll never know if, if there were other teams that maybe could have been played off to each other to, to raise the value.

Maybe they could have theoretically given up 77 instead of 46 or whatnot. But all we do know is that Kwesi got what he thought was the best deal. He made what he thought was the best deal. He made what he thought was the best decision. And he even said in a quote, like the value is what somebody is willing to offer for it. It's not there isn't just this preconceived value of something. You have to have somebody willing to give you a certain price to come up. And this is a situation where he looked at. All right. What how happy am I

going to be if I stay at 12 and take this player? How happy am I going to be if I move back and we get 32 and 34 and we kind of accumulate picks in this range where we think there's a lot of talented players and they ultimately made that decision. But I agree with what you're saying. Like, I think there's probably a way that this this can be a thing that works in quacey's favor like if teams are like okay we know quacey wants to trade back then he's going to get more calls and more calls are not is not a bad thing like even if the offer isn't good and you're like no we're we don't we're not doing that at least you got the call and maybe they'll they'll call you back in a few minutes with a better offer, or you can,

you can tell them that this other team is offering you more. And that's not a bad thing to just be engaged and for teams to maybe give you offers that they think are wins, like you said, by the traditional charts, but you end up getting, getting better value based on the new charts. And this could be maybe even a start of kind of a broader shift away from, I don't know if it'll be that big, but away from the classic charts that seem really outdated. The Jimmy Johnson one's been around forever. Like, I don't know.

I don't know if we really have to adhere to these, these charts with what we know about things like PFF wins above replacement and average value, approximate value from a pro football reference and stats like that, that measure players production over their careers. The value you're getting on their rookie contracts at non-quarterback positions is important to say. So maybe this could be, maybe this could be the start of kind of a shift. And there's, I i mean there's a lot of arrogance in the nfl in terms of general managers front office personnel and you know when people make mistakes

when they're arrogant they feel like like getting their guard down like oh we can fleece quasey with these trades because he's going to look at these stupid charts but we know our charts are better like if you get gms feeling arrogant about the way that they can, you know, use the Vikings and kind of manipulate value for them, that's when people make mistakes. And so I, again, I don't think this is a bad thing for Kweisi Adolfo Mensah to be considered a trade down guy, a guy that teams think they can take advantage of because maybe that arrogance will be used against them.

And it all just boils back down to what the players do. As much as we can harp on value, PFF, I know Eric Eager was on this podcast. He's talking about, yeah, that trade was worth 0.4 wins over three years. These things are really marginal, and what really matters is who those players are. And so if Jameson Williams is amazing, it won't matter what you thought of the trade because the Vikings probably lost it. And if he's bad, the Vikings probably won it regardless, because they did pick up those accumulate more assets and more swings at the plate. So I, I, I just don't think it's a bad spot for crazy to be.

Yeah. I'll tell you one thing that this trade will be viewed in hindsight for sure. That's just how sports work and how fans work and um i'll try to maybe remind people in the future to look at what the process was at the time but it's going to be if jameson williams is really good quasey's going to take a lot of slack that's just kind of the nature of it and he knew that when he was making the deal they had an opportunity to take jameson williams and who they said they liked a lot um if kyle hamilton's really good who they had an opportunity to take at 12 or even any number of players who went between 12 and 32, there'll be people who criticize that.

But the most important thing is going to be how to Lewis, how does Lewis scene do in the NFL? How does Andrew Booth do in the NFL? Is he able to stay healthy? Some of the other picks they got as well, Ed Ingram, Brian Asamoah. So that's going to be what ultimately is judged about this draft. But I'll just say this. I mean, Kwesi Adolfo-Mensah is a really smart guy and he knows the numbers. He knows the math. He's been around this for a while now with the Browns and the 49ers. He's not just going to take bad offers for the sake of trading down

in any situation. This was a specific situation where there wasn't maybe a ton of demand to come up. He wanted to, he feels like maybe this Vikings team isn't one special non QB at 12 away from instantly becoming a Superbowl team. He wanted to get more depth and more picks to rebuild that secondary is ultimately what happened. So it's a very interesting article and the quotes from those executives are very interesting, but I think we're on the same page here that it's not something to really overreact to. So I was naming some rookies there and that kind of segues into the next thing I wanted to talk about, which is rookie minicamp gets going this Friday.

And then we've got OTAs the rest of May and into June a little bit and then a break before training camp. But I want to talk about these these draft picks and where they fall on the Vikings projected depth chart as of early mid-May. So I want to take each kind of the Vikings' first few draft picks, and then I want you to give me the percentage chance that they are a starter in week one, or maybe just – we'll say in week one, but also just maybe that we can talk about whether or not they have a good chance to start at some point. But we'll go with week one, but also just maybe that we can talk about whether or not they have a good chance to start at some point. Um, but we'll go with week one for the, uh, for the percentages. So we'll start with Louisine, uh, who in my mind, uh, I'm, I'm curious to see what you think,

but in my mind, he, he just jumps into the starting lineup right away. When you use a first round pick on a guy who's that talented. And know cam bynum did well last year but it was like he played he started two games um he's a converted cornerback a fourth round pick i think that's uh let's hear what your percentage is for lewis scene i put it out like 80 or 90 percent that lewis scene is the starter for me you draft him in the first round like cam bynum is a good player and he shined there at the end of the season and throughout as a solid contributor, but by no means is he locked into any sort of starter role. The Vikings have been in kind of right after they picked Lewis scene, they talked a lot about kind of three safety looks and potentially using that.

And I, I think Lewis scene jumps in right there. He comes from Georgia where he's playing against NFL talent every week. He's surrounded by NFL talent in that Georgia defense. He's playing in a scheme that is very much NFL, you know, adjacent in terms of what he's being asked to do and everything. And then obviously he has Harrison Smith alongside him. Like there's not a lot of environments like, or he fits like what you'd hope for, for a starter that comes in right away.

And there's, I just don't think there's a ton of projection with him because we've seen him in such a pro style defense facing top tier talent. So unless he just like can't grasp things in training camp or gets hurt at some point, or like, I just don't see a scenario where he's not the week one starter yeah I think 80 or 90 percent is good because you never know like you said what could happen over the next four months unless something unexpected happens I would expect him to be the starter not only only the experience that he has, but just, just the talent and the ability that you read about and that you see watching him, just his physicality coming down and run support, his ability to kind of be agile and stay with

receivers, tight ends and coverage. And then the, the IQ and the anticipation and the instincts are really, really good trait with him and something that I think he can continue to hone working with Harrison Smith. Now, the next one I think is a little bit more interesting. Andrew Booth Jr. out of Clemson, who I've written about as a guy who I think has a chance to be one of the biggest steals in this draft if he stays healthy, because he told us, and this was surprising after the draft, that he basically hasn't played fully healthy since high school. He's dealt with a sports hernia issue that he had multiple surgeries on that he kind of played through at Clemson.

He had various other injuries that cost him some time, and he feels like he's on the path to being fully healthy this offseason and for the start of this season and that he can be even better because the guy that you saw on tape who wasn't playing at 100% was still pretty dang good with with incredible ball skills and some really good coverage ability and there's there's some technique things to refine there but the reason it's interesting is the Vikings already have Patrick Peterson they already have Cameron Dantzler, who's been a little inconsistent through two years. But PFF has mostly liked what he's done when he's been on the field.

He's shown a lot of potential upside. There's some other veterans in there as well. Chan and Sullivan, Nate Harrison, who I think are maybe more going to be slot guys. But what percentage would you give Andrew Booth Jr. to start week one? Very low for me, at least week one. I don't know, 20 percent just because of the injury. I think sounds like he'll be ready for training camp, but he's going to miss everything else before that. And it just feels like with him, I know it's intriguing that he was never healthy.

And so you feel like, oh, there's some untapped potential there. But the flip side is he just might never be healthy. Like he hasn't been healthy since high school. Why are we just going to assume he steps in first year in the NFL and he's healthy? Like that's the flip side to that question. And so mostly I think it's just I would hope the Vikings try to bring him along slowly. Don't try to rush him back from the injury. You have at least two capable average corners in Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dancer.

You add Louis Seane, you can use Cam Bynum as kind of that third safety, try to use more of those looks and you kind of just nurse him back to health and get him to the point where you feel good. So I would say very low 20% week one, but by week eight, if he stays healthy, I think he should be a starter at that point, you know, like bump that back up to 70, 80% at that point, put him on the field, see what he can do. But I just, if the injury is going to keep him out of rookie mini camp, a lot of the OTA stuff, if he doesn't come back till training camp or something like that, just ramping him up really, really quickly, trying to get him acclimated to the NFL really quickly and throwing him out week one, just doesn't feel like a solid strategy. Corners, no matter how, you know, no matter if

they're blue chip prospects, first round picks, number three, overall Jeff Okuda, stuff like that, they struggle in year one. And so combine that with the injuries, combine that with maybe a shortened off season where he's actually on the field. It just doesn't feel like that would be a good spot to put him in for success. And so it feels like he's one of those guys where you kind of have him come along for a couple of weeks, test him out in a limited role. And then when you see him kind of acclimating week eight, week nine,

then really let him go and see what he can do the second half of the season. What do you think? That's an interesting kind of argument to make. I thought you were maybe going to go a little higher, like 30, 40% or something, but I think you've kind of managed to convince me that that's probably the, the right approach with like rookie corners, you said tend to struggle I think the kind of peak outcome is you're like Pat Sertan or Greg Newsome and you're like a solid starter um I think there's probably some example that I'm

not thinking of of someone who is really good right away but it's very rare um and I I think what I was thinking is natural talent wise. I think he's already better than Cameron Dantzler just with his, his size, his speed, his ball skills, just raw coverage ability, all of that. And I think Cameron Dantzler is a good player, but I think, I think Booth is, has a potential to be special in some of those areas. So there is, I think Booth has the potential to be special in some of those areas. So there is, I think, a situation where,

and I don't know the exact timetable and details of when he's going to be able to kind of be full go on the grass this offseason. But if he's balling out and he's healthy, they're going to want to put the best player out there, and then maybe that's him week one. But you did manage to convince me that the best plan might be to start with Dantzler for the first little while. And then unless he's absolutely balling, in which case you can probably still rotate Booth onto the field in some form but um you get booth out there at some point mid-season when he's become a little more healthy a little more accustomed to the nfl game i think that would that would work well now

the next one is i would just say one else just like if we are to believe that they are doing a competitive rebuild like that's where that rebuild part comes in just a little bit like don't force a guy to come back before he's necessarily ready. But I agree. His talent is unquestionable. His first round talent. And so if he feels fully healthy and you feel good about it, that's where that 20, 30% is.

He's starting. If that's how you feel, then go out and roll, roll them out there. I just feel like if he's never been healthy in college, like just give him some time. Like he doesn't, you signed Patrick Peterson back for this exact reasons. You didn't have a massive hole that you needed to fill with a day one, like a day one pick day, two picks starting right away. Take that, use that to your advantage. And then from behind him, like there's no one else that really you're is threatening you. Like Harrison hand isn't threatening you. Chris Boyd isn't

threatening you. Shannon Sullivan isn't threatening you. Chris Boyd isn't threatening you. Jandon Sullivan isn't threatening you. So he has a really good chance once he's fully healthy and fully acclimated to get starting right away. I just, you know, why push it is my thought. Yeah, you need Andrew Booth healthy like midseason this year in 2023 and 2024. Yeah, you're not going to win a Super Bowl because he's out there week one. All right, let's go to the next one.

The Viking second round pick. Well, second, second round pick, Ed Ingram who was picked like almost 20 spots after Andrew Booth, but there I'm going to guess he might have a higher percentage. I don't know. You, you tell me. Yeah. I give this about a 50% chance, something like that. For me, it's just a toss up. Um, just cause they brought in a lot of bodies. They brought in a lot of bodies there. And a couple of guys that you feel like could probably start week one may not be your week 17 starter, but it can be your week one starter, Jesse Davis, all, all the guys

that they brought in. You still have Wyatt Davis last year. That's going to get as well. Yeah. Yeah. But if you sign or if you draft someone in the second round as a guard, like usually you're going to get him on the field very quickly. And so they did sign all those pieces, but again, a second round guard usually starts right away. That's kind of the history of this or starts very soon. So I'd give about a 50, 50 chance. He starts week one and really it could be higher, way. That's kind of the history of this or starts very soon. So I'd give about a 50, 50 chance. He starts week one and really it could be higher, but they just brought in so many different bodies

and they're kind of implementing that bills approach where you just sign a ton of guys, you throw a ton of guys at one position and you let whoever, you know, whoever's best in training camp, let them have it. And that could easily be one of the veterans just because they'd been in the league a while. But when you invest that type of capital in someone, you expect them to start relatively quickly. Yeah. And I think it's a smart approach, right? Like just get a bunch of, get a bunch of people in there and increase the competition. And you're almost guaranteed based on the track record of the veterans they signed and kind of the upside and draft pedigree of the young guys they have i feel like you're almost guaranteed like knock on wood to not have dakota dozier oli udo level guard play at right guard this year just based on like somebody's got

to win that competition out of those four and we won't talk about it right now but there might maybe chris reed could could compete um with compete with Garrett Bradbury at center as well. But, yeah, I think it's those four. It's Jesse Davis who's played both tackle and guard and has been better at guard in the NFL. Chris Reed, who was a really reliable backup for the Colts last year, he stepped in when Quentin Nelson was down, played well, eventually kind of earned, um, the right to stay out there. Um, and, and just as just as has been solid, which the Vikings have needed for a while. Wyatt Davis is kind of, um, an enigma. I don't know what to expect from him in year two. We really didn't see much from him in, in, in year one.

And he was training with, uh, with Duke many weather, the old line guru guru this off season. And we'll see, it would be, it would be a cool story if he, uh, is able to kind of make was training with Duke Manyweather, the O-line guru this offseason. And we'll see. It would be a cool story if he is able to kind of make an impact this year and get on the field. I mean, he was a two-time All-American at Ohio State. So I don't think you can't – we can't just write him off after one year. But Ingram is the new guy.

He's the guy that this front office handpicked uh because they like his tape they like his um his instincts the fact is kind of the way he plays kind of nasty he's always looking for work he's really good in the pulling game is something that they're high on um he's got that mobility but he's also got um kind of the mass and the strength to to anchor in a way that Garrett Bradbury has not been able to. I like, I like, I think 50%. I would maybe put it like slightly lower than that. Just because I think Chris Reed and Jesse Davis, the veterans might, might give you a little more right away just with the experience they have, but that's going to be,

that's going to be one of the most fun competitions to watch all throughout this off season and training camp, especially. There's always a guard competition, right? Oh, always. Yeah. I've, I've been here. So it'd be my fourth year and it's the guard competitions every year. I love it. Now in the third round, early in the third round, it take Brian Asamoah out of Oklahoma. I don't even know if I need to ask you for a percentage on this one

because I don't think there's any way he starts. You've got Eric Hendricks. Or an injury or something. Yeah, you've got Eric Hendricks. You've got Jordan Hicks. Those are your two inside off-ball linebackers. Is there anybody kind of else that they took outside of those top three guys that maybe has an outside chance to start um i think caleb evans in the fourth round i think is kind of a developmental

guy um yeah maybe it maybe a sazy otomowo i hope i hope i said that right it could have a chance to play a decent amount right away yeah i don't the only other one and it would be a shock and it probably signals things weren't going well in the offseason but a Caleb Evans just in terms of like I mentioned with Andrew Booth like there's not a lot of people Caleb Evans has to beat out that are really great players in terms of Chris Boyd Harrison Hand Nate Hairston like Chan and Sullivan like if he's a guy that shines and Andrew Booth just can't get on the field for a little bit, like maybe you see him rise up into kind of a rotational role immediately in

different sub packages and things like that. He's got the athletic traits for it. So if he's one of those guys that like really takes off and camp and show some stuff in the preseason games, maybe just because of the kind of the lack of depth they have there and a booth injury maybe they feel like he can come in and do some things on occasion but no there's a path there right where if if booths hurt and maybe Dantzler's hurt too he's had some injury issues or maybe he's just the coaching staff isn't isn't

liking what they're seeing from him there's at least a path for for Evans to uh impress right away and get on the field I mean the dude is the dude's 6'2 and runs like a 4'4 5 which is pretty rare and I guess Naylor could be like a special teams type of starter but he might be he might be the power turner yeah yeah yeah so maybe you get a starter like that, like they're on special teams, but in terms of offense, defense, the 11 guys on both sides, there really shouldn't be any starters that come from fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh rounds. That shows that you failed in free agency and you failed with your

development. You failed everything else. If one of those guys is forced to start. So for Vikings fans, it'd be encouraging that you feel like a late round guy has the potential to start, but it says probably a lot of bad things about the rest of the roster. So you should be hoping that one of those guys isn't forced into a starting

role. Yeah. And this Vikings team, I mean, there's a lot of, it's the competitive rebuild, right. Where they, they have some work to do, but there's a lot of veteran talent on this roster. There's a lot of kind of star power if people stay healthy. I don't know that there's going to be that many kind of starting spots really up for grabs. If we can project that most of the projected starters are going to stay healthy, the big two are going to be at cornerback and at guard.

And maybe center as well, although it seems like they're high on Bradbury, but all right. Yeah, this was, this was good, Paul. Thanks for coming on and talking some Vikings draft with me. And like I said earlier, I think you'll definitely be a recurring guest on, on the Will Raggett show. So thanks for coming on. Of course, always exciting and super excited for you to have this podcast. Awesome. Listen to the first one. super excited for you to have this podcast. Awesome. Listen to the first one. I can't listen to myself talk, so I won't be listening to this one,

but I will tune in next week for the edition of the Will Raggett Show. Thanks, Will. Okay. I want to transition now into something that I'm going to do fairly frequently on the show, I think, and that's take questions from people on Twitter. At Will Raggetts is my Twitter handle if you want to keep an eye out if I ask for questions and maybe I'll get to them on the show. But yeah, we're going to get to it. This first one is from William Wrigley at WRigley26. Give us a name from the 2021 draft class that has not had much of an impact to date, but will have an impact in 2022. And he says nobody is an option. So it's an interesting one because a lot of the Vikings 2021 draft picks haven't really done a whole lot yet. Christian Derrissaw was the first round pick.

Obviously, he looks like a big part of the future. And then they got contributions actually actually, from their fourth round picks, Kenny Wong Wu in the kicker turn game and Cam Bynum. But they had the four third round picks, and none of them really done much at all. Kellen Mond didn't play. Wyatt Davis didn't play. Chaz Surratt played a little on special teams. Patrick Jones was the only one who really got on the field on offensive defense. And he only played like a hundred defensive snaps. So I would have, I think said Wyatt Davis for a while this off season, because he's, I mean, I just think he's too good as a prospect,

the draft pedigree to just completely write them off. But now with Ed Ingram in there, the second round draft pick this year with some of the veterans they got, I'm not sure why Davis has a real opportunity to see the field. He's facing kind of an uphill battle to win that job at right guard. So I don't think that's my answer. I will give you one just for fun that I'm not sure I super really believe in, but that's Janarius Robinson.

The, the, another of their fourth round picks out of Florida State. He missed all of last year with an undisclosed lower body injury. I don't know if we ever actually got the exact details of what that was, but he's back now. He's been training with Daniel Hunter this offseason, which is a good thing. He has the 9.33 relative athletic score. He's a big, long, really toolsy guy who was raw and needed a lot of coaching. But I think there's a chance that he kind of jumps onto the scene this year and impresses some people in this new defense. Let's go to at Stenberg underscore burnt.

Was the Vikings offense truly bad last year? Outdated, sure. But the offense wasn't bad, was it? No, the offense wasn't bad. It kind of ranks in the middle was because of a really inefficient running game. I believe they were around the 25 range out of 32 in both rushing DVOA and rushing EPA per play. And that's surprising because they have Dalvin Cook and they have really good run blockers on the offensive line. But it was a lot of kind of the situations in which they would the coaching staff would call for runs. Clint Kubiak just there were, it got really predictable at times. You'd get an incomplete pass on first down, second and 10. They'd run the ball and get like two yards.

And that is, you're losing a lot of expected points and expected value. And just that does not look good in the advanced metrics when you're choosing the wrong situations in which to run the ball. It wasn't Dalvin Cook's best season either, but I think if they can just clean that up, I mean, the, the drop back efficiency, the, the passing DVO, those were all in the 10 to 12 range.

Justin Jefferson is obviously great. So I don't think the offense was, was bad last year. If you can make the running game a little more efficient, which means doing it at smarter times and obviously having some success with it, better coaching, better play calling. I think Kirk could be better with Kevin O'Connell at the helm. We've got Irv Smith Jr. back.

The pass protection, I think, could be better. This is all kind of the optimistic view. But I think this offense could be pretty good this year Alexander at school underscore doctor how have rookie safeties fared in terms of PFF grades is there optimism that Louis scene can be a difference maker to the defense in year one so Alexander also asked about rookie corners but I wanted to do this one and just because I I think looking at the data from the last few years and just historically as well, it seems like it's a lot easier for a rookie safety to come in and be an instant impact guy than it is for a rookie corner. And it's not impossible for rookie corners.

I talked about a couple of guys earlier in the show, Pat Sertan Jr., Greg Newsome. It's doable, but there's just a lot that goes into that position that is really tough to be great right away. We just haven't seen that very often. But with safeties, I was looking at the PFF grades of the last five years for rookies and 2021 last year, Javon Holland from the dolphins had a really, really good rookie year, like an 85 PFF grade. Trayvon Merrick, Andre Cisco also were good. 2020 had Cam Curl at Washington, Antoine Winfield Jr. Who I know a lot of people wish the Vikings had drafted Kyle Duggar.

Jordan Fuller was a sixth rounder that year to the Rams out of Ohio State, and he was a productive player right away as a rookie. In 2019, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Juan Thornhill had PFF grades above 70. 2018, Derwin James had an 88 PFF grade, and he's kind of a uniquely really, really good player. But Jesse Bates also had a PFF grade over 80. Justin Reed was good. 2017, Marcus Williams and John Johnson were above 80.

There were a bunch of guys, a bunch of safeties that year with solid PFF grades as rookies. So my overall takeaway was, from looking at that, was there's some great safeties who were great right away as rookies who were top draft picks most of the time. But there were lots of good ones as well. And there really weren't a ton of bad ones if you sort by players who saw the field like a good amount, at least 500 snaps or whatever it is.

So I think that kind of gives you optimism when you're looking at Lewis scene. And I talked about this earlier with Paul, how he's coming out of a really strong program. He's got kind of the, the NFL pedigree with, with that system and with the players he was playing with at Georgia. And then just the skillset that he has with the physical tools and the instincts and all that. I think it's pretty reasonable to to expect that he's going to be a good player and a difference maker and impact player in year one. Will he be great? I don't know. But I would be surprised if he came in and looked overmatched or looked like he wasn't ready. Jeremy Eversvik at OneRealEazy asks or says, it feels like a lot of the teams that were fighting for the NFC

wildcard last season. Sorry, it feels like of the teams that were fighting for the NFC wildcard last season, the Vikings made the fewest personnel upgrades. Eagles added Jordan Davis and AJ Brown. Saints have Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, added Chris Olave. The Commanders have Carson Wentz, who's going to be better than Taylor Heineke, presumably. Is different coaching going to be enough for the Vikings with the argument that they did not make

that many personnel upgrades? I think the Vikings might be better than those three teams. And I don't know if that's a hot take. Well, I mean, we'll see pretty quickly if they're better than the Eagles because they play them in Philly week two. But the Vikings did make some upgrades. I like what they did on defense. Z'Darrius Smith is a really, really good edge rusher. There's concerns whether or not he can stay healthy, but Jordan Hicks replacing Anthony Barr, Harrison Phillips replacing Michael Pierce. The talent's there on defense. You add Louis Seane and Andrew Booth Jr. in the draft. You're getting Daniil Hunter back. And again, health is going to be such a big factor this season, but it'll come down to the coaching. And that's something that I think fans should be optimistic about because Kevin O'Connell just has been really impressive so far.

And in kind of hearing from him and his plan and just hearing him talk about football, I think that that'll I think it'll make a big difference with the offensive play calling, maybe some creativity on that side of the ball, some different scheme stuff. They get Irv Smith Jr. back, which I mentioned in an earlier question as well. But, I mean, it's not just O'Connell. There's other coaches that are going to have an impact. Ed Donatel has a great resume as a defensive coordinator. I think his new scheme could unlock some people. So yeah, it'll be

interesting to see how the Vikings fit into the mix of the other teams in that kind of wildcard contender tier in the NFC. But I think on paper, their roster's up there with all of them, even if they didn't make super splashy offseason moves. At Shake Shask asks, I feel like nobody's talking about Dalvin Cook. What's his impact next year? What's his future with the Vikings? I don't know if nobody's talking about him, but I think people have just kind of gotten used to him being what he is, which is a really good running back. He's coming off three straight Pro Bowls. We've seen what he can do when he's on, when the blocking is good. He's dynamic, running the ball, catching the ball.

His vision, his speed, his acceleration, his elusiveness. He's really got the full package. Now, last year, it's kind of inconsistent for him. And again, he's dealt with some injuries all throughout his career. He hasn't played a full season yet. Back-to-back seasons with like 13, 14 games. But I mean, that Pittsburgh game when he just went off, I mean, I think about the Packers game in 2020 at Lambeau when he went off.

Like, Dalvin Cook's a really good running back. He turns 27 in August. So that's kind of, we're getting to the point where you start to think about running backs and the age-related decline. But he should still have a few strong seasons left. As for his future with the Vikings, I mean, I don't think it's in question right now. He's under contract through 2025, but going forward, are the Vikings going to want to commit to an expensive running back

for a long time? I mean, especially, like I said, he's turning 27. I don't know. We'll see. They have outs on that contract as soon as next year it would be something like six million in dead money um 2024 would be only like three million in dead money and a lot of cap savings so we'll see how the new front office wants to manage that because you you probably can get uh that's that's the whole argument is you can get solid running backs

even late in the draft and just kind of cycle through them. Maybe that would be the analytical approach. But Cook's a special player. I think he should have a big year in Kevin O'Connell's offense this year if he is able to stay healthy. And also, they don't have a future feature back on the roster, I don't think. I mean, Alexander Madison maybe, but we've seen kind of the vision issues that when, when he's in, in the game as a starter with cookout, he just

doesn't have that same elite vision. I don't know if he's ever going to be a really good, like feature back, uh, and he's in a contract year anyway. So they got a decision to make with him and then Wong Wu and Chandler, they're two young younger backs. Don't really seem like feature back kind of guys. So I don't know. At Latin pig 66, do any of the defensive starters not translate to a three, four scheme? Not really. I think if they didn't translate to a three, four scheme, they wouldn't be here for the most part. That's,

that's kind of an oversimplification but um it was a little interesting to me that like anthony barr and sheldon richardson are two guys who played a lot last year that weren't brought back because they feel like kind of prototypical three four pieces that there's been for a long time people have wondered like what would anthony barr look like in a three four could he be more of a pass rusher? He still hasn't landed anywhere. So it'll be, it'll be interesting to see where he goes. And then Sheldon Richardson, he had,

he was pretty good last year down the stretch and kind of fits that defensive end in a three, four where he's up front and he's, he's big enough, but he can also get to the passer. But I'm just curious to see how everything shakes out with all the defensive linemen and the linebackers like um who are the interior guys going to be i mean we know dalvin thomas and harrison phillips are going to play a lot armand watts probably as well um but then with edge rushers like zedaria smith's an outside linebacker we know that he's played in a 3-4 is daniel hunter an outside linebacker. We know that he's played in a three, four is Daniel Hunter and outside linebacker too,

or is he going to have his, have his hand in the, in the ground? How's that going to play out? Patrick Jones, Robinson, Kenny Willekes, DJ Wanham, all those guys, like where are they going to line up? How many off ball linebackers will be on the field? Cause Eric Hendricks and Jordan Hicks will be on the field a lot, but will there, will there ever be the need for a third off ball linebacker, Blake Lynch or, or Chaz Sarad or Brian Asamoah there the third round pick this year. So I'm just curious to see as someone who's been trying to learn more of the three, four responsibilities, kind of how it all plays out

this year. And then we'll end with this from Kyle Wilkin at Kyle Wilkin TDB. I feel so burned by this team the last two years. Sell me some hope we could win the division and make some noise in the playoffs. So I kind of touched on this earlier with the question about the NFC wildcard contenders. But I think the big thing is on paper, the Vikings have the roster, I believe, to like, this is a best case scenario to have a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense. Because offensively, it's all going to come down to Kirk Cousins like it always does. But you've got a great running back. You've got one of the best receivers in the league. Adam Thielen's still around. You've got some depth at receiver with KJ Osborne. You've got a great running back. You've got one of the best receivers in the league. Adam Thielen's still around.

You've got some depth at receiver with KJ Osborne. You've got Irv Smith coming back. You've got two great tackles. Great is, it's a little early to say that for Christian Derisaw, but it looks like you're going to have two long-term tackles. And then the interior should be better. I don't, they got to figure something out with Garrett Bradbury and then at the right guard spot. But like the offensive should be better. I don't, they got to figure something out with Garrett Bradbury and then at the right guard spot.

But like the offensive personnel is there. And then you bring in Kevin O'Connell, who is Sean McVay's right-hand man the last couple of years in LA. Super, super smart guy. I think he's just, I think he's going to do a lot. That's going to be really impressive with this offense. And then defensively, you've got the, there's still some issues, but you've got the playmakers at all three levels. If Hunter and Smith are healthy, that could be

arguably the best pass rusher duo in the league. Eric Hendricks is still really good. Harrison Smith is old, but he's still really good. Louis Scene's in there now. The cornerback room is much improved from what it was a couple months ago with bringing Patrick Peterson back, adding Andrew Booth Jr. I like their defensive coaching staff as well. So on paper, I think the opportunity is there for this to be a really good team. And they got to clean up. Obviously the, the end of half and end of game defensive lapses were very weird, but maybe that was a Mike Zimmer thing to some extent.

And, and, or maybe it was just kind of random to some extent and that'll regress to the mean this year. The big thing is, I think you just, if you want to be optimistic, buy into the roster, buy into Kevin O'Connell, like I said, who's just really impressed me so far and then Kweisi Adolfo-Mensah as well and his vision and what he's done with this roster. So we'll see. I'm excited about the schedule release this week and getting out to TCO and

seeing the rookies in mini camp and, and, and watching some OTAs and then eventually training camp. I mean, we're not that far away at this point. So I think there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic. This team has been pretty close to the playoffs the last couple of years. And I think there's a chance they could be a lot better this year. It'll come down as it always does to Kirk cousins, but we'll see. Um, so that, I think that'll do it for, uh, the,

the Q and a here and for this week's episode, uh, if you want to have your question answered in a future episode, keep an eye out on Twitter and, and reply there at will raggets and, uh, tweet me topics you want me to discuss or potential guests you'd like to see on the show. And I'll see you next week.