Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - The Will Ragatz Show: Do the arguments for Vikings 2022 optimism add up?

Episode Date: May 28, 2022

Sports Illustrated Vikings reporter Will Ragantz hosts with WCCO Radio's Paul Hodowanic. They go through a list of reasons for optimism about the 2022 Vikings and discuss whether we agree with them or not. Everything from the new coaching staff making a difference and getting more out of Kirk Cousins to the team staying healthier, specific areas like the pass rush and offensive line improving, and the schedule being favorable. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, welcome back to another episode of the Will Raggetts show on Purple Insider. I'm Will Raggetts, cover the Vikings for SI.com. And I'm joined today by Paul Hodwanek of Purple Insider and WCCO. Paul recording a little bit later in the week on a Friday. So happy Friday, man. How's it going? Thank you. I am excited. Will played golf this morning, ready to now just fire off my Vikings hot takes. Couldn't be in a better mood. Excited for this.

I love that. That's the energy that we need on this show. That's what we need. So the Vikings are kind of wrapping up, or getting close to wrapping up this phase of the offseason. They've got another week of OTAs, and then they've got the mandatory mini camp. And then it's kind of just a dead period until training camp,

which isn't too far away. But we're getting towards towards the dog days of summer here. But I wanted to just kind of talk generally about how we're feeling about this Vikings team as the 2021 2022 season gets closer and closer. And so I've written down a list, not a super long list, but a list of reasons for optimism about the Vikings. If that is the angle that you want to go and you are optimistic about it, you can also kind of turn them into reasons for pessimism if you're not sold. So I want to go through these and kind of see what you think and how much you agree with each of these. And then I will give my takes as well. But to start kind of the main story of this offseason is the new coaching staff,

the new regime in general. But Kweisi Adolfo Mensah has kind of done his part in this offseason. Now it's really a lot of focus is going to be on Kevin O'Connell and his coaching staff. So the first statement I have here is that for a reason for optimism for the 2022 Vikings is that the new coaching staff will make a big difference. And there's kind of a lot of different sub context to that, like specific coaches on both sides of the ball. But just in general, do you agree with that?

Yeah, it's a really interesting question. And one I actually recently explored in one of the columns for the site, which is just first year head coaches, especially rookie first year head coaches and how they do in their first year. You know, normally when you hire a new head coach, you're not in a great situation. Like that's just kind of obviously you're firing your coach for a reason. You're bringing on someone new. And so like the overall first year record for a rookie head coach is like below 500. And when you go through the 91 coaches that have coached one season in their rookie year, only 25 made the playoffs in their first year. So that's like 28% of coaches make the playoffs in their first year. And I went through them all and all the, all the playoff teams and what characteristics

they had. And a lot of the teams either had a rookie head or a rookie quarterback to kind of pair with them to kind of have that cheaper contract to go with the rookie head coach. And they were able to, you know, really bring up the rest of the roster. And then other times, you know, it's Matt LaFleur with Aaron Rodgers, it's Frank Reich with Andrew Luck. And so what's interesting about the Vikings is they're not really in either camp. They aren't in the complete rebuild with a young quarterback. That's not how they're going to win. And they aren't going to win with Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. Kirk Cousins isn't in their tier. So the Vikings are kind of a different team and kind of an outlier in terms of what teams traditionally look like in their first year with

the new head coach, especially teams that make the playoffs. So I think that makes this question really interesting because we don't have a lot of history to base off what they could look like, what their comparable kind of options are. I pointed out a couple comparable options, which were like the Chargers when they hired Anthony Lynn and they had Philip Rivers still, or the Lions in a bad case scenario, the Lions hiring Matt Patricia with Matt Stafford. Like those are a couple kind of both on the ends of the spectrum. And so I think I'm generally optimistic about the head coaching staff and what they can do, just because last year we saw some blunders in terms of what Mike Zimmer was doing in his fourth down decisions and his late game decisions. The team was dreadful in two minute scenarios. Those are things that can get bulked up and helped because of coaching. So I think I am generally optimistic about this coaching staff. But having said that, history doesn't tend to go well for first-year head coaches, one, because they can just flame out, and two, because their rosters might not be that great.

So Kevin O'Connell seems like a competent head coach. They have a good roster around him. You hope that he can marginally help some areas. So I am generally optimistic that this head coaching staff can help this team more than the previous one did, but there's definitely a larger range of outcomes for that coaching staff than we had for the Mike Zimmer staff of last year. Yeah. It's, it's a really interesting point to kind of go back and look and how the Vikings are straddling in the middle of those examples you gave. And I think everyone can kind of agree that a change needed to be made.

And even I think most people would probably agree after just what we've heard and kind of seen from Kevin O'Connell so far that the Vikings seem to have made a good hire. I mean, there's only winning and losing games will kind of determine that. But just from what we've seen this offseason, I think it was a good hire. I like a lot of the kind of ancillary pieces on the coaching staff that they filled out. But at the same time, that doesn't mean they're not guaranteed instant success by any means. And down the road, three, four, five years from now, if Kevin O'Connell's still around, which I think most people would expect him to be with the Wilfs being fairly patient owners, that's, that's when we'll really judge it.

And maybe there'll be major changes made. Maybe they'll bring in a different quarterback and maybe at some point they will kind of go more into the rebuild, especially if this year doesn't go the way that they are expecting it to go. So I think I agree, I agree with the statement that the coaching staff will make a difference. There's kind of a wide variety of ways that they can have an impact. Like you said, just a lot of things Zimmer did last year were kind of blatantly like didn't make sense. And just in general, I mean, we've talked about a lot, the culture and everything around the team kind of needed a reset. And I think just from being around the team in OTAs, like the vibes are really good.

People are positive. We're going to see what happens when the season actually starts. But I agree that a coaching staff is going to make a difference. I think they have kind of, and we'll get into this. I think they have the pieces to be a pretty good team if it all comes together. But at the same time, it's not like, it doesn't look like a Super Bowl roster right now

when you center that around Kirk Cousins. Yeah. So and I would also I would also just say, like in the Mike Zimmer era, there wasn't a ton of room to be optimistic about what the coaching staff could be. Like you very clearly kind of had it outlined of what you kind of knew what it was going to be. It's going to do that. There was a new offensive coordinator every year. But like even last year, like in your wildest dreams, were you expecting the younger Kubiak to be better? Like, I don't know if there were tons of reasons for optimism to say, this is going to take a massive jump from where Gary had this offense. And so I think one of the fun parts about it is you don't know it could be better,

but it could be better. And that alone should be, you can be optimistic. Like last year, if you came on and were like, you know, I'm really optimistic that this year, Mike Zimmer is going to do some different things. And this team is going to look much different. Like that was not what was going to happen. So yes, there's always a downside to that.

It could look worse. You know, it's the grass isn't always greener, but it could also look better. So I think fans and analysts and anyone have reason to be optimistic. There's obviously lots of history and just kind of your general Minnesota sports fandom can tell you to constrict and say, well, it can't be good. And maybe it won't be, but maybe it could be because you have a new GM that's supposedly doing things differently. You have a younger head coach. You're going and flipping in a lot of directions. So I think there is reason to be

optimistic. Yeah, that's what's exciting about this. I mean, even just for us covering it like is the unknown. And we knew what we were going to get for the most part out of especially the last few Mike Zimmer teams. It's there's just a lot that we don't know about what what is going to be different and what could go better and what could go worse. So I think specifically like breaking down the coaching staff a little bit, not coach by coach, but on like the two sides of the ball. I think the main reason for optimism comes in the form of Kevin O'Connell as the head

coach and like just being a better game manager, because that was a big issue for Mike Zimmer last year. I think you can kind of assume that, I mean, he hasn't done it before. That's, that's the thing. He's a rookie head coach, but I think you can kind of assume that he's going to have a better grasp on some of the game management stuff and timeouts and relationships with players and just things like that. And then offensively it's, I think it'd be hard to argue that you shouldn't be optimistic about Kevin O'Connell

and Wes Phillips running the show on the offensive side of the ball compared to what the Vikings had last year with Clint Kubiak, especially with kind of the shadow of Mike Zimmer hanging over Clint Kubiak's head from a play-calling perspective, which is something we saw under several different offensive coordinators. So that side specifically, I think is easy to be optimistic about defensively. I mean, we'll give Mike Zimmer some credit. He was still a very good defensive mind.

One of the best in the, in the league really for the past decade. So Ed Donatel also a very respected defensive mind, but that could be an area where I don't know if it's going to get better. Maybe you look to the personnel side, which we'll get into, but the defensive coaching, it could slip a little bit. But is that outweighed by the benefit of more creative offensive schemes and play calling and better in-game management? That's the question. Yeah, and I think on the Donatel front, I think you like that in kind of a Sean McVay mold when Sean McVay went out and got Wade Phillips

to kind of run his defense and kind of like let him be able to kind of take that and you're not as focused on that as a head coach. Obviously, Donatel does not have the reputation that Wade Phillips has. He doesn't have that experience of running a team or running a defense per se, but I think having kind of someone who's been around the block on that side

of the ball, it's going to be a really steadying force for Kevin O'Connell. So I think that maybe eliminates some variance in terms of this defense, just being horrible because the defensive coordinator is just completely out of their skis. Like Donatello, like it seems to be a veteran that people respect that has done really well in that Fangio system, which is kind of where defenses are trending.

Like that's the profile, the type of guy that you'd want next to a Kevin O'Connell. So yeah, I mean, Mike Zimmer, I think towards the end, probably his defensive acumen was just questioned just because people were tired of Mike Zimmer, the head coach, but Mike Zimmer, I think towards the end, probably his defensive acumen was just questioned just because people were tired of Mike Zimmer, the head coach. But Mike Zimmer, the defensive coordinator, was a very, very good defensive coordinator. You could see it. The spot where you can really tell what a defense can do well is on third downs.

That's when you can specifically scheme up something and continually, no matter the personnel, the Vikings were good in that area. So yeah, there aren't your hope. Your hope is that the, the coaching can kind of be the same as it was on the defensive side and that the personnel elevates it from where it was last year. And I will say that there's, I mean, the defense is going to be different. I mean, they're running a different scheme right there. And Donatello has been around Vic Fangio for a long time. And he actually,

he was a defensive coordinator like in the two thousands with like the Falcons and Packers. I think it's been a while, but he's called defensive plays before. And he said the other day that it's like, it's like riding a bike. So we'll see how that goes. But there's,

there's unknowns on that side as well. So I think that just in general is pretty exciting, but it sounds like we both agree, at least to some extent, that the new coaching staff is a reason for optimism. And let's move on to the next one, which is kind of the hot button topic all the time. But we have to talk about it, which is here's the optimistic statement. Kevin O'Connell will get more out of Kirk Cousins. And here's the pessimistic statement to flip that is

Kirk Cousins is who he is. He's been in the league for a long time and he has kind of a limited ceiling. I think you can agree with both of those, but which side do you lean towards? Yeah, I think there's two aspects to this. I, for a lot of the off season, have just kind of been thinking like, yeah, Kevin O'Connell comes in and his play calling is like,

the offensive play calling will be freed up because it's being done by an offensive head coach. You don't have Zimmer kind of always nudging you to run the ball a little bit more or kind of whatever he was doing. So that's obviously gone, but they didn't have bad coordinators in the past and they had coordinators that fit a scheme that Kirk cousins has run pretty well. He's had some of the best years of his career in Minnesota.

Like he's continually improved marginally every year. And he's better than he was with Washington under guys like Stefanski under guys like Kubiak both Kubiaks uh so I think I trend towards he is who he is I think we've seen this over and over again um now could Kevin O'Connell come in with a new scheme that Cousins really hasn't run and we see this kind of explosion out of him I I think potentially, but I always come back to yes, coaches are stubborn, but coaches want to win and they're going to put the offense on the field that best suits Kirk Cousins and best suits that offense. So yeah, Stefanski and Kubiak come from

a certain mold, but if Cousins was clearly better running some other type of offense, they would incorporate that offense. They're not, we've seen, especially with Stefanski, like he's not this stubborn type. Kubiak is one with different quarterbacks throughout his time. So to me, Cousins is kind of who he is. I think Kevin O'Connell can help the offense like separate, separate Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins is going to be Kirk Cousins. Kevin O'Connell can elevate it with his play calling, with his kind of deciding when to throw, when not to throw, kind of his splits there. But as Kirk Cousins as a whole, I don't think he's going to change much. I think it's

things around the margins that you can help Kirk Cousins be in a better situation. But I don't think Kirk Cousins turns into a different quarterback with Kevin O'Connell here. So I think I lead more towards he is who he is. I mean, we've seen so many different coordinators come in and say, we can be really good. And most, a lot of them have been average or to above average, but we really haven't seen anyone take him to the next level. And so I'm skeptical that that can happen,

especially in just one year of another new system. Yeah, I'm with you on that. I lean towards Kirk Cousins being who he is. He's been a starter in this league for a while. Like you said, he's worked with some very talented play callers. So what it comes down to is how you feel about Kirk Cousins and what we've already seen, like who he is. There's a camp that thinks that he has not been the issue in recent years

and that you can win with him and that if Kevin O'Connell kind of makes some slight adjustments, there were kind of some puzzling times in the last few years where the Vikings got away from play action. It seemed, especially last year, for certain stretches of the season, their play action rate wasn't as high as it was maybe in 2019 under Stefanski when Kirk was – I think that was probably his most efficient season overall. So the little things like that, just really constantly play-to-play,

series-by-series, maximizing what Cousins does well with play action, with kind of utilizing all of the weapons on this offense, finding that right balance where you're not. I mean, you're utilizing Dalvin Cookies. He's one of the best running backs in the league, but you're not like throwing an incomplete pass on first down and then running for two yards on second and 10, which we saw too many times last year. So I'm on the side that Kirk Cousins is who he is, but I think what it comes down to is that might be enough because he is,

what we've seen is when he's on and he's playing well and he's being aggressive, like he's a very, very accurate passer. This offense has the pieces for sure. The skill position weapons with Justin Jefferson at the forefront to allow him to have a lot of success. So if, if O'Connell can kind of just make slight adjustments, nothing dramatic. This is going to be a similar scheme to what,

like don't expect the Vikings offense to come out and look radically different because it's not going to. I mean, it's all kind of the same tree. They're calling their running scheme mid-zone versus wide zone, so it'll incorporate some different stuff. And maybe they'll be a little more creative, but a lot of the, the core passing concepts are going to look the same just maybe with different terminology.

A lot of the just core tenants of the offense are going to be similar, but if O'Connell can kind of call it at a high level and make some slight adjustments to, to always be maximizing what cousins can do, then there's a strong argument to be made that Cousins is good enough to even win you the division and maybe make a playoff run, even though we haven't really seen that yet. The flip side is that maybe he just isn't good enough and maybe his ceiling is 10 wins or 11 wins.

Yeah, I think we've gotten to this point and we're probably past this point, but for me, it's kind of like, you know, when someone commits a crime, it's innocent until proven guilty. Like he's going to have to prove it to me at this point. Like nothing that we've seen so far should tell us it's going to be drastically different this season. So to me, I think the camp needs to be Cousins is just going to be what Cousins is. And until we see any big, big changes, like I'm going to make him prove that to me because it becomes this kind of, you know, the definition of insanity every year. If you're saying, what else can we get out of Kirk Cousins? And then it's the same thing you're getting out

of Kirk Cousins. Like he's got to show us at this point. And what he's shown so far is still above average quarterback play. It's top 15, top 12, top 10, wherever you want to slide in that spectrum. Like that's where he is. And that is pretty solid. But if anyone is going to argue, no, this year is going to be different. Like until we see it, I'm not necessarily going to believe it because he's had, he had plenty of talent here in Minnesota. He's had talent going back to his days in Washington. And so for him to take some big jump, it's just like, you got to prove it to me at this point. Because right now I'm projecting he'll slot in between the 15th

and 10th best quarterback next year, and he'll win some games, and he'll make some boneheaded plays where he's standing in the pocket for two seconds too long and get strip sacked. Like, we know this story. And so until, like, you got to sacked. Like we know this story. And so until like, you got to just prove it to me at this point. Yeah. I'm with you. And that's what makes this season kind of a big one, I think for Kirk cousins and, and the future of the Vikings,

like he knows he has to play better in general to, if he's going to be able to retire as a Viking, not necessarily because of the level of play, but because he's made it clear that he is going to be able to retire as a Viking, not necessarily because of the level of play, but because he's made it clear that he is going to maximize the business side and he's going to command at like a lot of money, which is how the game works when you're a talented veteran quarterback. So I think he's got to really show this year that he can be into that top 10 range maybe or just consistently playing at a

level that that will allow you to win a lot of games because um the contract is such a a big albatross and then such a a bit like it just takes up so much of the salary cap that i don't i don't want to turn this whole show into the classic kirk cousins debate but debate. But I'm with you that this is a big year for Kirk and that we're leaning towards he is who he is, but there are possibilities for slight improvements and O'Connell could make a difference. Let's go to the next one, which is a reason for optimism. The Vikings will stay healthier this year.

I'll give you a stat. The Vikings had the 12th most adjusted games lost in 2021 with almost 90. That's a football outsider stat. I don't exactly know what the 90 number means, but the important thing is they're 12th most. So they were in kind of the upper half of the league in terms of being hurt by injuries. And obviously no Daniel Hunter all year, no Irv Smith all year.

Dalvin Cook. I think at this point, he's kind of just, you get you pencil them into like the good outcome is he misses a few games. The bad outcome is obviously he misses more than that, but just with the position he plays and the workload that the Vikings have, have given him over the past few years, he's, he's probably going to miss some time. So do you agree with that, that optimistic perspective that the Vikings will stay healthier this year and that'll be

something that helps them be better? I think I would say first, no, I'm not. But the reason you would be is because the Rams were one of the teams that was really able to help their guys like their kind of sports science medical department was a a big thing for them and was like kind of a major sticking point of why they've been able to stay healthy in the past and so you're hoping the vikings can translate that here um another reason is normally like if they have the 12th most like you're just you're just expecting that to regress a little bit like that was more on the outlier side than not so you'd expect that to come back a little bit but with this team in particular like the guys that got injured last year are guys that probably will get injured at some point this year like they have

some injury riddled players that we just have a long sample now of they're going to be out sometime. You mentioned Dalvin Cook. He's going to be out a couple games. Thielen's probably going to be out two, three games at some point. He's going to some hamstring or something's going to pop up. He's going to be out a couple games. Daniil Hunter, Zedaria Smith, both those guys could miss tons and tons of time. Then you have old guys in Patrick Peterson Harrison Smith in the

secondary like this team I think generally like you even drafted a rookie cornerback who has had a ton of injury history with Andrew Booth yeah so I think like in a vacuum you'd say well maybe that regresses a little bit just because injury luck tends to do that but I just think the guys that they have on the team now, you can pencil in at like the bare minimum, Cook's going to miss two or three games just because that's kind of how the running back position, not even Cook goes, just the running back position goes. And I think you're probably going to pencil in a couple for Daniil Hunter and Zedaria Smith, just because they're getting older and they obviously have history and might just be

something sore for a while. And they're going to take a couple of games. Like that's just how this is going to operate. And so I see no reason that they aren't up there again. You know, and they had guys that stayed healthy for most of the season. Cousins has never really gotten hurt. Justin Jefferson wasn't really hurt at any point during the season. Like to me,

I'd project them right back in that spot again, right in the upper half of the league in terms of games that they are lost and the only reason to really be optimistic is you're hoping some of this voodoo stuff that they had over at the rams with their analytics based sports science stuff comes over and they can really really help the vikings but again like we're saying first year regime it's just hard to transform stuff that quickly and so maybe you see the benefits that in two three four years do you see that in year one i'm skeptical yeah no that's fair and i i do think you pointed it out and it's kind of been an underrated uh move and acquisition that the vikings did this offseason was getting tyler williams the the ram sports science director uh to minnesota and um all the kind of data of them being

able to keep players healthy. And I don't know. Yeah. I don't know how much of that is like these concrete, tangible things that they were doing. And probably some of it is, I mean, Cam Akers was able to come back really fast from an Achilles injury. Some of it probably also was, was just good luck. Cause I don't know. I, I, I don't think they were over there like casting magic spells on players like tendons and muscles to keep them healthy. So there's no like flip you can switch and just turn injuries off and in the

Madden settings. But I think that that could help you. You make an interesting point that maybe that'll be more of a kind of a long term impact that we see. But I know, I think, I think that that could help you. You make an interesting point that maybe that'll be more of a kind of a long-term impact that we see. But I know, I think, I think you're, I think you're spot on that. Like the Vikings being 12 last year,

doesn't really mean that they're going to just regress to, and be better because of the specific personnel of this team. That is pretty top heavy with aging veterans and several guys on, on kind of the wrong side of thirties is how you refer to it in the NFL. Phelan Harrison Smith, Patrick Peterson, like you just, you just are more likely to get banged up and have little ailments that are going to cause you to miss some time when you're older. Cook, we've seen the, the, the kind of the point with like guys like Cook and Daniel Hunter and

Zedaria Smithith where they've been injured in the past um it's an interesting one to me because i don't know like i i try not to buy into players being injury prone um because generally certain injuries specific injuries are separate of each other and they're kind of isolated events but that's not always true right like if with with the sample size like with dalvin cook like switching sports like byron buxton and for the twins like there's just there's certain players who seem to for whatever reason made their play style or their position or just the way that their body is is formed like they just seem to get hurt a little more often i think you can you can give that some weight without it being unfair.

And then you all, sometimes you have situations like Anthony bar, for example, where like his knee thing was kind of I don't want to say like degenerative, but like it was, it was connected to multiple issues and isn't something that was just going to get fixed or get better,

which might explain why he still hasn't been signed by a team yet. And it's almost June though. I imagine he will end up on a team at some point, but yeah, in total, I think I agree that it would be hard to confidently say, Oh, the Vikings lost a lot of time to injury last injuries last year, that they're not going to do that again this year. Maybe, maybe Tyler Williams and the sports science helps. Maybe they just get lucky.

And I think that's kind of the scenario that like you can get excited about as a fan, because Hey, what, what if Daniel Hunter and Zedaria Smith stay healthy all year and rack up like 15 sacks each. And what if Dalvin cook plays 15, 16 games and the island stays on the field. It's possible. It could happen. But I don't think it is something that you can count on. Definitely.

No, and I don't think a good team counts on that. I think you kind of have to build in that. I think that's why you go out and you sign depth. And that's why you have Alexander Madison and Kenny Wong Wu. And, you know, you just draft another running back. So when he's hurt or when you need to move on from him, you've got someone that can come right in. It's why I was a little confused why they didn't address Edge more in the draft or just trying to pick up other depth pieces to kind of fill in

because you miss one of those guys and you're really going to struggle. I think the pressure rates that we saw last year, or the sack numbers that we got, were not kind of lining up with pressure rates, which is much more stable for the Vikings team. So although Wanham got some sacks, and although the Vikings did generate some sacks, that's not a sustainable mark that we've learned.

Normally, if you can consistently create pressure, that's just going to lead to more opportunities for sacks like that's not a sustainable mark that we've learned like normally if you can consistently create pressure that's just going to lead to more opportunities for sacks and instead of kind of this home run hitting where you happen to get a sack when you're pressuring like that there's just so many different things that can mitigate that in terms of maybe you get a good rush one time but that's a quick play pass and then suddenly that doesn't matter so i think that was one of the things that kind of struck me why they didn't address edge a little bit more because they have those two injury prone guys on the side but one that tells you they either have confidence in the guys they have

behind them right now or they feel really good about them staying healthy so i think that's the optimistic view to take on that specific kind of side of the ball. Um, but yeah, it hoping for injury luck is not the way to go. Uh, you're, you're going to get it. And it's just kind of when it happens, like the Buccaneers had it right at the end of their season, it tanked their season, like can happen to the best of teams. Uh, and so the Vikings have to be ready for that. And I think because they've been injured in the past with some of these marquee guys, they kind of know what to do at this point and the players behind those guys are still a lot of them are still in place and so they've played there now you're just hoping for some more internal growth to help those become better than just average backups when they come in

when someone does get hurt yeah and it's kind of just the next man up mentality that players always talk about you want to have a roster that's built to have some depth. And that was an issue for the Vikings the last couple of years. Mike Zimmer said it straight up. Like, we are kind of a top still certainly positions. You mentioned edge. Like if, if Daniel Hunter or, or Zedaria Smith go down and you're, you're thrusting DJ Wanham or Patrick Jones or Kenny Wilkis into a role that they may not be ready for, or may not have the ability to fill at a high level. So certain positions like that,

they have a little more depth in the secondary now, but not a ton on offense. There's, there's some, not a whole lot. So we'll see. I mean, it's going to be there. There are people are going to get hurt at some point. They're not going to go through the entire season without any kind of major significant injuries. So we will see what, if they're ready or not, when that happens. Let's go to basically this one is that the optimistic statement is that the Vikings will fix the woes that hurt them in terms of defense melting down late in halves and games and kind of losing close games that were winnable. This is another one kind of like the injury thing where you just project, like they gave up the most points ever in an NFL season in the last two minutes of halves. Like surely they can't do that again is kind of the general idea. And this ties into what we've talked about with the coaching staff,

because I think a lot of that can fairly be put on Mike Zimmer. And then like with close games, I think they were six and eight in one score game. So it wasn't like they were terrible. They won a lot of one score games too, but like they lost the Browns, not the Browns, the Bengals game when Dalvin Cook allegedly fumbled in overtime and they lose the Cardinals game on a Greg Joseph Shankfield goal and the Lions game in Detroit on a last second touchdown and just things like that, that you project like, all right, this probably isn't going to be as bad this year. So that in itself, when paired with the coaching staff is a reason for optimism do you agree with that yeah i'm actually very optimistic on this point um first because of what you said there like there were some historic historic bad numbers for the vikings last year and just like probably probabilistic wise like that's not going to happen again uh and i'd also say

like the quarter like the thing that drives getting scored on is quarterbacks that can operate efficiently in a two minute offense. And just generally like good quarterbacks do that more often than other quarterbacks. And if you go through the Vikings schedule in terms of opposing quarterbacks, they're going to go against. It's not a murderer's row, guys. It's Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, J Winston Justin Fields Tua Kyler Murray Carson Wentz like Zach Wilson Zach Wilson Daniel Jones yeah yeah these aren't quarterbacks that you expect to just light them up at the ends of halves and games in kind of comeback fashion so I think that has to play a part in it too obviously yep you have. You have Josh Allen on the schedule. I would be surprised if that one's close at the end of the game.

You obviously have Aaron Rogers a couple of times you have Dak Prescott still, but like the quarterback schedule doesn't scare me a ton for this team. And so I think that's just one of the, one of the reasons to be optimistic. I also think you probably have more consistent secondary, like we're not going to have a crazy blown coverage in there, which is another way that teams can make big plays down the end of the half. They're going for a big play coverage breaks down and then they can kind of capitalize on that. You think you're going to have pretty steady cornerback play if guys stay healthy. So yeah, I am much more optimistic about this

than most of the things we've talked about today. I think that just generally is going to come down from a historic rate. And I don't think the quarterbacks that they're going to face are necessarily going to put the Vikings in a position where they're marching down on them time in and time again.

Like it might happen a couple times to some of those really good quarterbacks, but not a lot of the other quarterbacks scare me from that perspective. I think those teams can definitely still beat the Vikings, but in terms of that last minute, we're going to go no huddle. We're going to push. We're going to push. We're going to push. I'm going to be perfect in these last minutes.

I don't, I don't see that. So I think, and I think the Vikings aggressive nature more on offense probably plays into that as well. Maybe they're not giving them teams the ball back with two minutes as often as they were doing in the past. So I am optimistic that that does get better and that their winning percentage in close games goes up and that they give up less points in the last two minutes of games. Yeah, it would be very, very difficult for them to give up more points in the final two minutes. That would I don't even I don't even know. That would be a feat. Like the situation in which that happens is that's like ninety nine point nine percentile bad.

But you're good. You brought up a few points that I also had written down to get to. So we will we will dive into those a little more in just a second, um, including the, the schedule and specifically the quarterbacks. Um, and then also some specific areas of the team, like the secondary. Um, I still like, I think in 2027, I'm going to just randomly think about like the Vikings playing their cornerbacks eight yards deep in the end zone at the end of that lions game. Like, it's just, it's just little things like that that you'd like to think a new coaching staff isn't going to make those mistakes and there,

there will be mistakes and they're going to, they're going to make bad calls and do dumb things. But the hope is, if you're trying to be optimistic that they will not be like to that magnitude because that was, that was really bad. And there were just a lot of random, really bad things that happened in the ends of those, those halves and the ends of the games that I, I think I agree as well that it will be improved because you just, you just can't be that bad again in some of those areas. And,

and I will say like they want a couple of games that that's true. And you're right. I shouldn't, – we've learned this about the Vikings. You should never say it can't get worse. That is a big Vikings lesson. So I apologize for saying that. It is not – I would like to think that it won't get worse, but it is entirely possible. But, yeah, I mean, just – they did win some games that, like,

they maybe shouldn't have won. They almost blew a huge lead against the Steelers 28, nothing. They had a couple of walk-off Greg Joseph field goals. So it wasn't like as egregious on that front, but you like to think a new coaching staff can do a little better in the one score games. And then the specific issue of just the meltdowns at the ends of halves and games, I agree, will be better.

So let's let's move on because because I think a lot of that was coaching. So let's move on. And this is kind of a two part one. I want to talk a little bit about the defense specifically. reason for optimism is that the Vikings pass rush and the secondary, which go hand in hand to when you're talking about defending the most important thing in the game, which is opposing passing offenses, the pass rush and the secondary will be improved based on personnel and coaching. Do you agree? Based on personnel? Yeah. I think I, you get another kind of marquee or top tier talent safety to go back with harrison smith now you can let cam bynum be more kind of a flex role you can get creative with that that's kind of a luxury the vikings haven't had in the past bring back patrick peterson camera

dansler you're hoping for another year of internal growth you're hoping you can get something out of one of the two rookie cornerbacks obviously Obviously, bring in Channing Sullivan. I don't know how much of a difference that's going to make. But I think he's probably going to be a little better than McKenzie Alexander. Yeah. Or if you just towards the bottom of the PFF rankings last year, if you just put him right there, like with him, like, OK, that's not a down. You know, that's you didn't lose much there. And then on the defensive end side.

Yeah, I think, you know, Harrison Phillips, like that's a kind of one-to-one switch that you're making there and then you add zaria smith and uh daniel hunter i think based on personnel it's not quite i don't think it's an argument that they're in a better spot just all comes down to and we'll really get a sense for the first time in like five years how much mike zimmer meant to a defense and how much this can be replicated by another defensive coach in a different defensive scheme. So I think I'm very optimistic on the personnel on the coaching. That's where it starts to be questionable. But I think net net, I, I would guess that they can be slightly better, but it really

it's, it's probably the, maybe the biggest storyline for me is the defense. I know everyone's focused on O'Connell and the offense, but what the defense looks like without Mike Zimmer is a really, really interesting situation that I'm really intrigued by because defense is hard to know what's coaching, what's happening. Is this the offense being bad is this the defense being good and maybe that's just my eye like i understand offense better than i understand defense so from my perspective i like couldn't know like unless i'm listening to deontay lee or someone

else that's really good at breaking down defensive stuff like what mike zimmer meant to this team so yeah i'm optimistic the personnel's better. I'm not optimistic that the coaching's better. Just I'm giving a lot of deference to Mike Zimmer here and what he can be, but I'm going to be really intrigued, and I won't be, like, shocked if this defense is better and this scheme rejuvenates some guys in this defense that have just always played the same role in Mike Zimmer. Like, Mike Zimmer's defense.

I think maybe this can be like a really nice thing for Eric Hendricks or Daniel Hunter who have been in one system for a long time. So I'm generally optimistic about the defense, but much more on the personnel side than the coaching side. Yeah, no, and that's totally fair. And I think it's, I think it's fair and earned to give some respect to Mike Zimmer for what he did. We talked about it earlier, like just consistently,

regardless of personnel, his third down defenses, his red zone defenses were always good. So you know that that was him to some extent, and his ability to kind of cook up different pressure packages and disguise looks and things like that. And a shameless plug, I talked to Arif on last week's episode of the Will Raggett Show, and we talked about kind of how various players' roles might be different in this new 3-4 hybrid

defensive scheme with Ed Donatel. So go listen to that if you haven't. But that's just a topic in general that I, like you, am very intrigued about like what is this going to look like and and whose um whose roles are going to change and and what is the impact of that like are the linebackers going to play differently and have different assignments how are the interior versus the edge guys going to factor into the run and into the pass rush and all these things that'll be really kind of fun to once we actually get some some game tape to look at um to kind of see how that's going and um see uh if if it makes

a difference in in a good way or potentially in a bad way so i i think i i like i like your assessment of um the kind of personnel versus the coaching i think think the personnel like up, up front, I mean, Zedaria Smith and Daniel Hunter, if they stay healthy, I think is probably the best edge duo the Vikings have had in, in a long time. And they, they had some good ones with, with Hunter and Everson Griffin. But I think Zedaria Smith, if he is like what we saw in, in 2019 has a higher ceiling than, than Griffin ever did. I don't know if that's considered a hot take or not, but I think they could be really good there.

On the interior, it's just kind of, they still don't have a lot of pass rush juice there. Dalvin Tomlinson said the other day that he wants to be more involved in the pass rush. And I guess I'll believe that when I see it. Michael Pierce, I think losing Michael Pierce is kind of an underrated loss um just because when he was healthy and that was the big issue is he only played in like eight games in two seasons but when he was out there he had some kind of impressive pass rushing juice from from a big

man i don't know if harrison phillips really has that element to his game. So, but it's outweighed for sure by like going from DJ Wanham and Kenny Willekes and whoever to Daniel Hunter and Zedaria Smith at the edge. Secondary wise, I'm not as confident. Maybe it'll be better. I just don't know if it's still going to be particularly good because you're relying a lot on, on at least one rookie in Louis scene and, and potentially another rookie corner or two in the mix. The Chan and Sullivan at the slot is just like, okay, sure. I guess, I guess the argument for optimistically is that like,

they don't, they no longer employ Bashad Breeland and he's not going to be on the field at all but and then maybe Cam Dantzler takes some some strides in in year three with uh his shiny new single digit number but Patrick Peterson isn't getting any younger um Harrison Smith isn't getting any younger so I'm more confident in the pass rush improving than I am in the secondary and then we could get into a whole debate about which one means more and is more impactful but um yes i i think that go ahead no i just have a pressing question sorry you mentioned the numbers like i'm gonna get very

messed up by the numbers yeah well like i am gonna like you've been out at otas i don't know if it's confused you but just seeing the screenshots like game days practices, I'm going to have no idea who's running around at any point. I am like like I OTAs, especially there's so many guys on the field. I have no idea how I would be able to tell who is who right now with everyone switching numbers. The nice thing is that Vikings PR gives us the paper rosters when we are out there. Yeah. So you can kind of go through and I've needed to do that at these, these OTAs that we've been able to go to because you look up and it's like, oh, there's 33. Oh wait, that's not Dalvin Cook. That's Brian Asamoah. And they kind of have like the same build.

So that one really threw me for a loop. That was actually at rookie mini camp when Asamoah was out there. And I was like, is that Dalvin? Why is Dalvin Cook at rookie? And then, I mean, it took me a second to realize the big ones I think are cook is for Alexander Madison is two, which those are both going to take a little bit. Yeah. Dantzler is three. I think those are like the main, Oh, Cam Bynum is 24 now. Okay. Not 43, which is huge.

I think cause that's a much better safety number. 43 is like a great safety number. Like practice, like special teams, linebacker 24 is a really good safety number. So those are the big ones. I mean, Louis scene is new,

but he's six. Jordan Berry is 16 now, which looks weird on a punter. But anyways, I need a punter, like, like a wide receiver. Now I need like an 81 out of a punter. That would be fantastic. They have that in college a lot need a punter like like a wide receiver now i need like an 81 out

of a punter that would be they have that in college a lot where the punters wear like 98 and it's it's awesome um anyways let it let's go we i got two more left here that will hit fairly quickly um the next one is is similar just kind of a um personnel coaching question for one specific area. And that is the offensive line will be better in 2022. And that is a reason for optimism, Paul. Yes or no. Yes. I'm actually kind of bullish on the offensive line. I don't like saying that the Minnesota Vikings offensive line. Yeah. Yeah. No, I, I really like the strategy that they took kind of the Buffalo

bill strategy of throwing a lot of bodies at one or two problems and just kind of having no shame, like, Oh, okay. Chris Reed didn't work. All right. Jesse Davis, you want to go in there? Oh, you didn't work. Why Davis, you want to go in there? Ah, that didn't work. Like let's throw our new draft pick out there like I like that strategy kind of just getting a lot of cheap guys hoping hoping one can hit instead of just signing one mid-tier free agent and hoping that works because like all the offensive linemen that are generally good are either signed or you're gonna have to spend more money than the Vikings had to get them so I think it was kind of the best like if we're just comparing it to last year's offensive line, it has to be better.

Garrett Bradbury is in a contract year. That has to motivate him to be better than he has been, and maybe he won't be. Maybe it's just who he is. But if we're going to create the circumstance in which Garrett Bradbury has a better year, this is kind of what you do. You still have your bookend tackles. Like I'm optimistic that the offensive line can be better. And I like that, what their strategy was addressing it. It wasn't just going and getting Josh Klein or it wasn't just saying, Oh yeah,

let's our third round rookie is just going to go in there and we're going to feel good about that. Like they, or like, we're not going to sign like Dakota Dozier again. Like they've seemed to take a different approach with it, but I think is the right one for the Vikings situation right now. Just throwing a lot of cheap bodies at it and just saying, whichever one works, we're going to roll with and we don't have a lot of assets tied up in any of

them. So we don't have like this pressure to play a certain one. Maybe you have pressure to play at Ingram, but he's an, he's a rookie. So I don't think it's necessarily there this first year. So yeah, I think the offensive line is actually in a good spot and no one, please clip that. Please. No, please don't like, please. Yeah. Don't old takes exposed. Don't don't like please yeah don't old takes exposed don't don't just please this was never said but i i think i agree um i am not nearly as up like gung-ho or bullish was the word you use about the offensive line my thing is just like yeah i think it would be hard for them to be

worse because like it was less than a year ago that they were rotating Dakota, Dakota Dozier and only Udo as the right guard. And just purely based on the numbers game of the amount of people they brought in, they're probably going to be better at right guard. And I think that competition is you'd hope is going to kind of end up with somebody emerging as a competent, at least perhaps even a quality right guard. I think the favorite, my pick for the favorite for that is Chris Reed, just based on what he did with the Colts last year. Jesse Davis got like a slightly bigger contract, so you could make that argument as well.

But he's played a lot of tackle recently and he's moved around and the results have been pretty mixed. Maybe Ed Ingram deserves to be the argument as well but he's played a lot of tackle recently and he's moved around and the results have been have been pretty mixed maybe ed ingram deserves to be the favorite as well just draft pedigree wise and end this um this new front office kind of investing a lot of draft capital into getting him so one of those three i mean wyatt davis has been completely written off but maybe you get something out of him. You never know. He also moved. I believe Jersey number news from 51 to 52, which was his college. Yeah. That's the only college number. And Mason Cole wore that last year. Yeah. I get into really into the weeds of this. I was writing about all the Jersey changes a few weeks ago, but anyways,

that the right guard thing, I think I'm optimistic about the reason I'm not optimistic or at least not that optimistic about the Vikings offensive line being better is it's still a, you're only as good as your weak link unit. And more so than I think really any other kind of position group or unit on the football field. And to me, I don't know if there's any reason to expect Garrett Bradbury to be better he's been either last or dead last in PFF pass blocking grade among qualified centers in all three of his years I don't know if there's any flip you can

switch there with a new offensive line coach and new coaches in general and I mean I'm pull for Bradbury because he was a very like he had a very interesting and self-aware press conference last year after he essentially got benched when he returned from the COVID list. But it's just hard for me to kind of project that, which then you're still talking about having a major weak link in the middle of the offensive line with with interior pressure being pushed back into Kirk Cousins, which is something we've seen can affect him pretty significantly. Maybe having a better right guard next to him makes a difference.

I'm just, that's an area where I'm not particularly optimistic. And then I look and I go, okay, well, there's no other option really. Like they, they haven't addressed that position. Maybe you move a guard to center. Like you try Wyatt Davis there, or you try Chris Reed there. Maybe if he doesn't win the right guard job, but that's asking a lot because none of those guys have really played a lot of center. And it's not as simple as you just, Hey,

line up here and snap the ball. Like you got to call out all the protections and slide the different slide, the offensive line in certain ways, based on the look of the defensive front is showing you. And then you got to snap it and you got to immediately believe be blocking and doing all these different kinds of block reach blocks and pass protection anchoring against big nose sack. Like it's a hard position to play in some fairness to Gary Bradbury,

although he was a first round pick who was supposed to do that hard position at a high level. But that's kind of my thing with not being super optimistic is I just I don't see how they're going to get really any better at center. And that's still going to be an issue. And then we could talk about like Christian Derrissaw's improvement is not necessarily guaranteed to be linear. And Ezra Cleveland still hasn't ranked particularly well in PFF pass blocking. So I'm cautiously optimistic that it'll be better. I'm just not overly optimistic that it'll be good all of a sudden. Yeah, I'm also with the Bradbury thing. I hear you like they don't really have a better option.

I also trust like the new regime isn't going to have the motivation to prove people right that they picked a good first round center like they're i don't feel like if bradbury's bad i don't feel like they're just gonna like for pride's sake try to hold on and hope that turns into a positive asset and so they do still have a little bit of cap space to work with they i i yeah i don't love moving a guy positionally, but I have faith that if Bradbury isn't good, this isn't a regime that's just going to keep him there or keep a Drew Samia out there, like for their pride sake, for the resources that they've spent in him. Like they didn't grab, they didn't, this regime didn't draft Garrett Bradbury. They didn't pick up his fifth year

option. Like they don't have long-term commitments to him so if he's bad this regime isn't tied to him like the previous one was which should make it easier to move off of him if they see a better option because they're you know they don't really have a dog in the fight of proving that Bradbury's good like Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer did that's fair that is fair like I can definitely see situations in which the last couple of years, like they, the Zimmer Spielman regime was still trying to prove like Bradbury was a good pick. I promise he's going to get better.

And maybe, maybe it could happen this year. They've, they've said publicly that they have faith in him and that they think maybe some slight changes in scheme and stuff can help them, but we'll see. Hey, JC Treader still a free agent.

I don't think the vikings are gonna sign him since they don't have any cap space i know i know it's where this it's late may we got we got to talk about stuff like that i i get it from from fans clamoring over no i get it i'm wanting a center but jc treanor has become like folklore in i know like the mythical jc who might i i've learned more recently who might have some like concerning injury issues, even though he's, he's played, like he hasn't missed games. He was always on the injury report for the Browns last year and is not super young. So, all right, let's,

the last one I have written down here is one that you as a elite pro bowl caliber podcaster already touched on without even knowing that I had it written down. And that was, um, the schedule is favorable and specifically the quarter opposing quarterback schedule. Well, there's two aspects to it. One is they, they have nine home games this year and six true road games, um, because our seven true road games. Yeah. Uh, and then one, um, the basically a neutral site game in london that like based on the number of british and uk vikings fans that follow me on twitter i think there might be i think that might be a purple crowd i don't know if that's just completely anecdotal but i

feel like i have a lot of um great uh uk uh vikings fans who interact with me on twitter a lot so shout out to all that but so But so that, that specific aspect, like with the 17 games, it just flips each year, whether you have eight or nine home games and us bank stadium is a pretty significant home field advantage. And then the other aspect of it is the quarterbacks, which we already touched on where they it's basically like Josh Allen and

Rogers twice are the only like foolproof tier one quarterbacks that they face, depending on how you feel about Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray and like Matt Ryan. I don't I don't think maybe maybe Cowboys fans would argue that Prescott's tier one. But I think all those guys are kind of in that secondary tier. And then it's a lot of like mid or bad quarterbacks who maybe could like Zach Wilson's of the world could maybe be better in year two. But you get golf twice, you get fields twice. It was another one like could be better in year two, but we need to see it. And then, I mean, you touched on him earlier, Jalen hurts, Daniel Jones,

Jameis Winston to I don't, I'm probably forgetting somebody there, but you get the, you get the general idea that it's pretty advantageous. So do you agree that the schedule being favorable is a reason to be optimistic this year? I do. Yeah. I mean, just comparing it to last year, based on like sharp football analytics is way they look at it with projected win totals entering last year, they had the 17th ranked schedule, 17th easiest, I guess, 15th hardest,

however you want to look at that. Um, now they have the 10th easiest. So they've moved up a little bit last year in terms of rest advantage, disadvantage, they ranked 28th in rest advantage last year. So they were put in many more disadvantage, disadvantageous spots in terms of rest. Now they're right middle of the pack. They aren't losing any more games than they're gaining. So that's another reason to be optimistic.

They're one of seven teams that have three home games in a row. And it's an important stretch. It's that Dallas game. It's that new England game. And it's the New York jets game week 11 through 13. That's I think that, and I think they play five of six at home yeah in that stretch yeah I think there's a lot of reasons just in terms of how you look analyze the schedule kind of on a deeper level why you'd say yeah this is

better for the Vikings and then yeah they don't have those really scary quarterbacks outside of Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers and however you feel about Dak Prescott, although the Cowboys have shown they can beat the Vikings with any quarterback. So I'm going to be scared of Dak Prescott for a while. And then, yeah. Yeah.

And then you're looking at like what teams could make like that bangles leap or that Cardinals leap that we saw last year, that could be harder than we might anticipate. Like maybe you're looking at the Eagles or the dolphins maybe as one of those teams, one of those two teams that you look back at the endagles or the dolphins maybe as one of those team one of those two teams that you look back at the end of the season you say wow that was actually a hard game for the vikings based on how they did all year but like neither of those teams like really feel like they're gonna make some massive jump maybe the eagles but the dolphins

i don't know so to me a lot of things line up for the schedule to look more advantageous for the vikings now does that mean they go from eight wins to 11 wins? Probably not. But does that mean it makes, they have an easier road to 10? Yeah, I do. I think that, I think that's kind of where you have to be looking as a Vikings fan. So yeah, I'm optimistic by the schedule. They, I mean, the Packers have one of the worst rest advantage schedules. They're like very much last that. So that helps you. A division

opponent has a harder schedule than you and a worse advantage in terms of rest. So yeah, I think there can be reasons that you look at the schedule and you feel optimistic, but again, I don't think it's optimistic that, Oh, an average schedule, maybe they win nine games, this schedule. No, now they could win 11 or 12. I think it's, if you thought they could win nine, maybe the schedule convinces you they can win 10. That's that's where I'm at. Yeah. I'm with or 12. I think it's, if you thought they could win nine, maybe the schedule convinces you they can win 10. That's, that's where I'm at. Yeah. I'm with you. I mean, it's, it doesn't matter as much as like coaching and personnel and how you play, but it can't hurt to have some of these favorable elements. So, um, yeah, I mean, there's going to be some big like swing games. I think early on in the season, I wrote down a

couple of them, like week two at Philly Mondayay night which happens to be my birthday by the way i'm excited about that um that'll be a big one where you like are testing your uh your ability very early against um potential nfc wildcard foe i mean obviously week one is going to be the huge test that against the packers at home but uh week four in london against the saints week, six going to Miami before the buy week, coming out of the buy with the Cardinals at home. And then that kind of bills Cowboys Patriots stretch that you get there as well. So I think overall the schedule is favorable, but it's not like it's the NFL. They have to play 17 NFL teams.

They're going to have to play well if they want to win 10 or 11 or even more games. But yeah, that, that wraps up my list, Paul, this was fun. I think we're both kind of in agreement on a lot of, on a lot of fronts, but I, this was a really good breakdown and thanks for coming on the show, man. Yeah. Hopefully this Friday, hopefully we left with some optimism. We got, there was a little downturn in the middle there, but I think we started high, we ended high. So I think that's,

that's how you want it. That's how you want it. Yeah. That's a good way to be in the off season. And we'll do this again in a couple of weeks or not exactly sure a hundred percent on the schedule, but definitely going to have you on a lot. And yeah, thanks for coming on the show. Awesome. Thanks.