Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - The Will Ragatz Show: Football Outsiders' Scott Spratt talks key stats for the Vikings' 2021 season

Episode Date: July 1, 2022

Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) from Football Outsiders joins Sports Illustrated's Will Ragatz to talk about football analytics, DVOA, other Football Outsiders stats, and the Vikings. Scott talked about some of the key stats for the 2021 Vikings and things that could improve this year with a new coaching staff. Will wraps up the show by answering a bunch of quick Twitter questions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, welcome back to another episode of the Will Raggetts show on Purple Insider. I'm Will Raggetts, cover the Vikings for SI.com. And joining me today is Scott Spratt from Football Outsiders. He's a fantasy and analytics writer for Football Outsiders and Edge Sports. Scott, how's it going, man? Thanks for coming on. Good, Will. Happy to be here bringing the nerd corner over to your podcast. Happy to do so. Yeah, so I want to start by talking a little

bit about your job and what you do and how you got into football analytics. Can we just hear a little bit about your background before we talk about the Vikings here? Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, I started like a lot of people that want to break into the football and media industry do where, you know, I didn't have a job in the industry. I didn't study that in school. So I just kind of started writing on my own, submitted some stuff to some websites, fan graphs and pro football focus to analytically leaning sites for baseball and football. And ended up, you know, starting out as just writers getting paid by the article in a lot of cases, not getting paid. But I had a bit of a breakthrough when I got hired by Sports Info Solutions, which is more of a B2B type company, I would say, but they do analytics

traditionally for baseball teams, but they broke into football. And since I had some experience with football writing and fantasy football writing in particular at the time, I helped spearhead the efforts for them to break into football. And that kind of exposed me to this whole world, which has then led me to Football Outs football. And that, that kind of exposed me to this whole world, which has then led me to football outsiders. I mean, football outsiders has been around for close to 20 years at this point. They're kind of the OGs of football analytics, but for people that aren't familiar with them,

if you've ever seen the movie money ball with Brad Pitt, that's basically what they do. But for football, which is really fun. I mean, football is just such a nuanced sport where there's so much interdependence involved that like the actual analytical side of it is just, it's really interesting. And that's something that they really attracted it to me when I have kind of a diverse sports interest, but football is a really fun one to do for a career. Yeah. I think a lot of people have heard of football outsiders because of DVOA.

It's a big thing that I use as a resource on my writing and on Twitter and things like that. But what kind of stuff do you do for Football Outsiders? Like during the season, during the off season, what does that look like? Yeah, so I guess I'm a bit of a fantasy expert. So I do a lot of fantasy related work for the site. In particular, I'm responsible for our Kubiak

full season fantasy projections, which are going to be coming out tomorrow. So that's exciting for fans. But then I do weekly projections during the season. And that's like for a fantasy player, the standard set of stuff that you would get to help make good fantasy decisions. You know, all the regular stats and stuff, we project all of that. But we try to do a little bit of a more sophisticated look at that type of stuff. So you know, I've built tools for fantasy players that look at things like expected touchdown scoring. They just get a little bit deeper than your traditional metrics to help people make good fantasy decisions. And again, because we're a smaller outfit, I wear a lot of hats too. So like,

you know, I end up writing articles on teams that aren't fantasy related. As mentioned, I wrote the Vikings team chapter previewing for the last year's almanac. So heading into the 2021 season, previewing their season, and we do all kinds of fun stuff along those lines. Yeah, that is exactly what I wanted to bring up next. And that's how I kind of first discovered your work was reading the Viking section in the Football Outsiders almanac last year, which I thought was really interesting, like the detail, the analysis, kind of the analytical stuff that you were getting into. And so let's talk about the 2021 Vikings with kind of the benefit of hindsight.

Yeah. You, in that section of the Almanac, you pointed to four signs of potential positive regression from 2020 and like one of them was special teams um where the vikings were terrible in 2020 31st in dvoa they improved to 13th last year another one was their early down versus late down dvoa differential and they improved a lot in dvoA last year on third and fourth down. They did get worse on early down. So I wonder how much that balanced out.

But they also had fewer adjusted games lost on defense, which is a cool football outsider stat that measures how much production is lost due to injuries. They did lose some key play. Like Daniel Hunter missed most of the year. Irv Smith Jr. missed the whole year year but it was less than in 2020 and then the schedule strength dvoa went from 6th and 2020 to 11th last year so a slight change but my point being that all of those signs of regression that you kind of identified like you were spot on and you had the vikings still went from being a

seven and nine team to being an 8-9 team. And eventually that got Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman fired. And that leads us to where we are with this whole new regime going into 2022. So I'm just curious, like, from your perspective, using the analytics and the DVOA or just in general, like, what did you see from the Vikings last year that went wrong to kind of offset some of those things that improved? Yeah, I would say that I guess I won the battle in that preview but lost the war for a little bit of it.

So like all of those ones you mentioned, they seem a little bit all over the place. But the thing they have in common is that those are less sticky stats from year to year. So you say like, you know, a field goal kicker, like we know who the good ones are, we know who the bad ones are. But honestly, if a guy has a really good year kicking field goals, or really bad year kicking field goals, it tends to kind of revert back to the average for the league, unless you're Justin Tucker, and you're just like generationally special. And like, that's the sort of thing that happened at the Vikings last year, where

in 2020, they were bad in a lot of stats that just aren't sticky, and then they improved. It just didn't actually translate into into success in the way that you mentioned. And, you know, it's not like they were particularly unlucky or anything. They ranked between 13th and 16th in the league in offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA. So they were kind of a middle of the pack team, however you slice it. But I would say there might've been some coaching related issues holding the team back. Some ones I would kind of point out, they were bottom six in percentage of plays with three or more wide receivers. They were bottom five in reliance on run pass options. They had the third highest rate of rushes on second and longs. They were outside the top 10

in play action, offensive motion, and fourth down aggressiveness. None of those are necessarily good versus bad. Like those are stylistic choices. But to me, if you kind of combine it all together, it points to like a real old school mentality, like not adopting some of the modern philosophies that teams like say the Rams have done that make things easier on their quarterback and offenses. And I think would probably be really good for the team. So like, here's kind of a fun one along those lines where like Dalvin Cook is a huge star for the Vikings, Kirk Cousins, some fans could probably take him or leave him at this point. But last year, the Vikings had the fourth worst red zone DVOA on rushes with a third best on passes. And you say, well, that doesn't make sense. Like Dalvin Cook is really good at his

position. Cousins is maybe average, but I think so much of it just kind of comes down to the predictability of it, where defenses could really expect the Vikings to run in traditional run situations, like near the goal line, for instance. And that just made it so much easier for teams to stop what they were doing on offense,

even if the individual players involved were talented. I just think they probably weren't put in the best positions to succeed while so many other teams have adopted the modern philosophies like offensive motion that make things much easier on everybody involved. Yeah. So you're a lot of things you're probably saying are music to Vikings fans ears, right? Because some of the things we noticed last year are what you talked about, like the predictability on offense. Clint Kubiak was a first time offensive coordinator and he had some moments where he looked good and did some creative things,

but a lot of times it was just too predictable. And it was like you said, too many runs on second and second and long that would put them in really impossible or difficult third down situations, not using motion enough to all these things you mentioned i think are things that fans can kind of expect to be rectified to some degree or maybe to a great degree now that they have kevin o'connell who was uh with sean mcveigh for the rams the last two years like they're going to use more 11 personnel they're going to use more four wide receivers they're going to use um more motion before the snap and and ideally i mean we

don't know because kevin o'connell's going to be a first time play caller too he didn't do it in la that was sean mcveigh's job um but we've seen zach taylor who was with sean mcveigh not calling plays do well uh in that area but it's just kind of the the modernization that i think vikings fans are hoping for like like more creativity, more RPOs, play action, just putting your players in positions that are going to give them the best chance to be successful. So just in that regard, the coaching change may be more so than any like minor roster changes because they mostly kept the same roster. Like that could make a big impact. Do you agree with that? I totally do. And I think you can kind of look at the Rams last minor roster changes because they mostly kept the same roster like that could make a big impact do

you agree with that I totally do and I think you can kind of look at the Rams last year bringing in Matthew Stafford I would say kind of a quarterback you would put in the Kirk Cousins bucket prior to last season where like the individual statistics look pretty good it just hasn't quite translated to the best one lost results and you wonder if adding things like motion can really help him kind of get the team to the next level. The phrase that I like that the Rams use a lot is the illusion of complexity, where things like pre-snap motion confuse defenses, then make them make choices that the quarterback can then read before he has to make his throwing decision. And like that kind of thing could just make things so much easier. And so if Cousins has had trouble in certain types of, you know,

clutch situations or whatever over their years, whether or not that I think that would be something that would continue going forward. Perhaps the dog, the Vikings can just avoid being in those types of situations a little bit more often in the next season. And then maybe those won't end up costing you games. And I think that a lot of those things can kind of snowball on each other and lead to the subtle improvements that can make this team a playoff team.

Yeah. Cause it seems to me like the roster is there for at least like in a seven team NFC playoff field. They're right in that like six to eight to nine range where they're going to be fighting for. Even the Packers have lost a lot, Devontae Adams, some other pieces, but they're still kind of the overwhelming favorites in the NFC North. But the Vikings are in that tier with the roster that they have, where if the coaching

can put Kirk Cousins in good situations, use him in play action more. That's a big thing where he's been really successful in the past using play action. In 2019, when it was Kevin Stefanski as the offensive coordinator, they used play action a ton and he was extremely efficient in those situations. They've got Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen and um so I I think like that's the that's the optimistic view is that just this changing coaching staffs and modernizing things uh can can make a big improvement like you said it's it's the illusion of complexity they want things to look the same but for there to be a lot of things that you can do out of that so the defenses can't really predict it and want things to look the same, but for there to be a lot of things that you can do out of that. So the defenses can't really predict it. And they want to do the same

thing on the defensive side of the ball under Ed Donatel, who was a longtime Vic Fangio right-hand man, where they're going to be start in the same kind of too high coverage shell every time, and then rotate out of that to make things difficult on opposing offenses. So it'll be interesting to see what changes this year for the Vikings. Another thing that they didn't really have a lot of success with looking at the DVOA and EPA for play and things like that was just running the ball in general, which is strange to me when you have Dalvin Cook. But a lot of that can be the offensive line.

A lot of that can also be just the situations in which you run the ball, right? I think so for sure. Cause like, honestly, the most interesting statistic about the Vikings last season was that they had the third best adjusted sack rate on offense, but the, the, I think it was the fourth worst adjusted line yards on offense. So the first one is football outsiders measure of pass blocking. And the second is run blocking. And you're talking about the same offensive linemen. So it's like, it's kind of weird that you would see such a big disparity there. Maybe the players could be involved.

Like I would say Garrett Bradbury and Brian O'Neill, they both stood out as blowing 1.0% or fewer blocks on their pass blocks than the run blocks. But I think so much of it is, as you mentioned, is the predictability when you're running an obvious running situations, it makes it so much easier to diagnose. And if defensive players can kind of get a half step ahead of it is, as you mentioned, is the predictability. When you're running in obvious running situations, it makes it so much easier to diagnose. And if defensive players can kind of get a half step ahead of the offense, then that's going to make it easier to stop. Like to me, that explains it better than anything else, because two years ago, the Vikings had a ton of trouble on the defensive line, in particular defensive tackle, where they had some COVID opt outs, had players out for the season. Last year, they had much better health up front and it didn't translate to dramatically better run blocking numbers. So I don't like,

I would say that I'm kind of mixing up offensive defense a little bit there, but the point being that like, I think that if you can get a little bit more creative on offense and use things like run fast options and play action, then that's going to confuse defenses and maybe make the runs a little bit easier because they're coming in non-traditional situations or when it doesn't necessarily look like they're going to be trying to run yeah and i want to talk about those two stats that you mentioned a little bit more adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate um so you said the vikings were did well in adjusted sack rate, correct? Correct. Third best.

And we're the opposite in adjusted line, which is interesting because kind of the the general perception of the Vikings offensive line is that they are better in run blocking than they are in pass protection. Like guys like Garrett Bradbury, who is really athletic and mobile, but has struggled to to anchor against defensive tackles. And Brian O'Neill kind of started out his career. I think the run blocking was a little bit ahead of the pass blocking, but now he's just really good at both. But Ezra Cleveland, like they had Rick Spielman had this strategy of drafting these super athletic, like slightly undersized, almost like big tight ends as offensive linemen to run this zone blocking scheme. So it's interesting that those stats are what they are, but more goes into that than just the offensive line, if I'm not mistaken. With adjusted sack rate, a lot of that comes down to the quarterback as well, doesn't it?

It does. And that's the thing that I think is surprising to a lot of people that aren't as experienced with the advanced analytics is that quarterbacks are more predictive from a sack rate perspective than their offensive line. So like if a quarterback switches teams, wherever he goes tends to follow his sack rate. And that's like a really surprising thing. But if you think about it, quarterbacks that are able to make quick decisions, a Tom Brady type, for instance, they're going to get rid of the ball before pressure can actually come down on the quarterback. So maybe the pressure rate can be a little bit higher, or maybe say blend block rates can be

higher, but it doesn't end up creating sacks. And for, for some of the criticisms that Kirk Cousins has taken, he's actually very good at getting rid of the ball quickly. Something that you expect to continue, whether or not the Vikings have the best pass blocking, uh, you know, linemen out there. So I think that can explain a little bit of it too. And I'll point out as well that both of those stats, they're adjusted for down and distance. So like when you're in more favorable circumstances, every team is going to see fewer sacks and every team is going to run the ball better. And when you kind of look at it from that perspective, it makes a little bit more sense.

And in fact, I would say that sometimes the run blocking for the Vikings probably looks a little bit better than it does because Dalvin Cook is super talented. And in adjusted line yards, the offensive line gets more penalty for having a play that gets stopped for no yards or a loss, but gets less credit for plays that go for like five or more yards after contact or whatever, where it's like, hey, like Dalvin Cook is actually generating these explosive plays, and that makes the overall offense look good with a high yards per carry, but Cook is actually responsible for a lot of that, not just the run blocking. Yeah, and that's just – or you mentioned earlier in that, like the thing that I like about the football analytics and specifically some of the

stats that you have at football outside as a DVO is it's all adjusted for circumstance. It's all adjusted for the opposing team, the opposing defense or the opposing offense, like the down and distance, like maybe even like the weather or just, just all things like that. And so I think that that really adds a lot of value when you look at those things versus just the basic box score stats like yards per carry or completion percentage or things like that. How does that taking everything into account kind of help paint a clearer picture

when you're trying to break down what's happening in the game? Honestly, I think it's completely critical. It's like if I'm the first person that anyone that's hearing this has ever heard doing like analytical type discussions about football, down and distance is like the most basic and critical thing to understand about this, where, you know, when you're in a second and three, it's just so much easier than when you're in a second and nine. And every stat is going to reflect that from a running back's yards per attempt to like a quarterback's completion percentage. It just, everything changes on those lines.

And so I would say if you tend to rely on things like traditional yards per attempt to tell you how effective players are, I would really encourage you to like get into things like success rate, like DVOA, which kind of folds that up to say that like, hey, when you adjust for the, the difficulty of the circumstances, you can get a really different picture about which

players are efficient and which aren't. And I think that maybe not in the Vikings case last year, but in a lot of cases can tell you a big difference. Why? Hey, like a team was rated really highly in DVOA, but didn't win. Why was there a difference like that? Things like that can really explain a lot of those differences. Yeah. I like looking every week, whether I don't know if it's like

Tuesday or Wednesday when the DVOA gets updated and I'm like, all right, where, where are the Vikings now? What's their like, um, I what's the stat called where it's the, um, the expected wins. Um, we do both expected wins and then pythagorean wins is another common way to look at that too yeah so those are all just just really interesting to me and i don't think it'll surprise anybody like you hit on this earlier that i think the vikings were 16th on off in offensive dva 16th in defensive dva and 13th on special teams they were just a very middle of the pack team which is disappointing when you consider the talent level of the roster. They did have some holes that they've tried to address this year.

But the big thing is going to be, like we talked about, just the coaching change and what that can maybe unlock on both sides of the ball. Another stat that I noticed when looking at the DVOA page, the Vikings were number one in the league in variance last year. What does that mean and what goes into that? So variance means the week to week consistency of their DVOA or say their overall efficiency as a team. And they weren't just number one last year. And by number one, I mean the lowest variance. So they were the most consistent team every week. They've been the top 10 and the lowest variance for each of the last five years.

And it's honestly like a quirky stat. Like it's not necessarily good or bad to be variant. I would say that if you're a really good team, you want to have a lower variance because it means that a bad game is less likely to sabotage you in a playoff type situation when that's really important. And if you're a bad team, you'd probably rather have a high variance because that way you can pick off teams that are better than you on average. If you have a really good week, well, when you're the Vikings, it's kind of, you're stuck in the middle where it's like, you're kind of an average team and you're playing to an

average standard every week. It means you're probably not upsetting a lot of teams that are better than you, but you're maybe you're beating all the teams that you should beat. And with the Vikings, it doesn't quite work that way because the traditional run heavier type of offense with the power looks and stuff can present matchup difficulties for some of the teams they play that maybe their defense is set up to stop the pass versus the run. But overall, if you're going to be that consistent and that average week to week, it's just,

you're probably not going to have a lot of the seasons where you have a little bit of luck and you wind up winning, you know, two or three more games than you should, and then sneak into the playoffs when maybe that wasn't your true talent level. So I would say like the Vikings, they either need to probably get a little bit more talented, which I think you can argue they definitely did with the new, the coaching changes this off season or get a little bit more variant. So that way they have some of the seasons where they're not finishing eight and nine or, or whatever the case may be right around 500 yeah and that to me just seems like a perfect like mike zimmer stat i don't know what exactly how to like explain that it's

interesting that they were in the top 10 in variance in five straight years but like it's just seemed like in in the back half of the mike Zimmer era, this was a team that kind of was stuck in the middle and had a defined ceiling that they weren't going to get over, which you, you can't have that, that low ceiling. If you want to try to win a super bowl and specifically last year, they were in every single game, basically like every game, it almost became ridiculous how every game came down to the final play. And they lost more of those than they won.

But they also won a bunch of them. Like they, I think they set or tied the record with like 14 games, 14, 15 games decided by eight points or fewer, which is just kind of absurd. Like, so they wouldn't show up and have any duds. You knew that they would play like whether it was on the road against the Ravens, who are a good team, they played that into overtime and had a chance to win or against the Packers at home they beat them by three like and then they would play bad teams and they would play them to one score too so it was they lost to the winless Lions on the on the very last play it was just kind of a

ridiculous season but going back even further like they just feel like a team that had they had some good moments under mike zimmer for sure from 2015 to 2019 um they had some good teams but the ceiling was always there like in 2017 in that nfc championship game when they just get the doors blown off them by the eagles and then in 2019 they beat the saints in the first round and lose to the 49ers in the divisional round so it always it just seemed like like the variance wasn't there that that stat makes sense just putting it into layman's terms of like the eye test so um that is interesting to hear for sure let's talk a little bit before i let you go about fantasy football which is your um one of

your areas of expertise is there there anybody on the Vikings that stands out to you maybe as like somebody who could regress negatively or could maybe have a breakout season? Uh, so I guess if I were picking a breakout, I'd probably go with Irv Smith, the tight end who I think is a little bit off of radar since he missed all of last season. Was it, it was a knee issue. Was it a torn ACL? I was of radar since he missed all of last season was it was a knee issue was it a torn ACL I was trying to remember he missed the entire season it was a torn meniscus and we've around here the Vikings fans and in Minnesota we talked a lot about Irv Smith because he was so good in training camp last year then Torres meniscus so this is the contract year for

him he's definitely a popular breakout pick but somebody who nationally is probably getting a little bit slept on. So, I mean, I would say that maybe people in a fantasy sense had given up a bit on Smith even before last year, but it's very normal for even a highly drafted tight end to need two or three years of development to start really producing from a pass catching perspective. And the Vikings clearly were kind of following that path or like they had

had some incumbents that were getting more of that work. And then last year was going to be the year that he got more feature goal in the offense and then it just didn't happen because of the injury I think the bounce back is possible there with health and the other one that I guess stands out is KJ Osborne with kind of circling back to what we said with O'Connell being the new head coach maybe relying on three receiver sets more frequently than Mike Zimmer did maybe he'll be on the field more he was pretty efficient from the slot last season when he got his opportunities but just maybe relying on three receiver sets more frequently than Mike Zimmer did. Maybe he'll be on the field more. He was pretty efficient from the slot last season when he got his opportunities, but just wasn't used as frequently as some of the traditional slot types,

like the West Wilkers of the world back in the day, who were on the field as much as the outside guys. Maybe Osborne could see more work in the slot this year, just by virtue of a pass-heavier offense. Yeah, Osborne, to me, was kind of a boom- boom bust guy like if you made a big play or caught a touchdown he would probably return you some value in fantasy but you couldn't count on it right because the Vikings have a fullback on the field a lot and they had two tight ends yeah on the field a lot so he just wasn't like as as much of an every down player as some teams third receiver is and that probably changes this year

where the Vikings are going to be, they're still going to occasionally use two tight end sets, but I would imagine the majority of the time, there'll be only one tight end on the field with earth Smith. And then I don't, I wonder if CJ ham, the fullback, if his role gets diminished a little bit because he's such a valuable player and really good at his job. But like, it's a question of does having a fullback on the field as one of

your skill position players like does that provide more value than having another wide receiver who's going to be a faster player and a more explosive player uh and i don't know no discrediting to cj ham who made like who randomly had like three 25 30 yard plays last year but um that's kind of the question that ke O'Connell and the Vikings have to ask themselves. The issue with fullbacks is that even if they're good at their job, they're a signal to defenses that it's more likely to be a running play. And so typically when a running back gets a carry behind a fullback, he's running into a defense with more men in the box and it doesn't always lead to better results as a rushing team. Yeah. And so

you got to try to be a little bit unpredictable with that. And the Vikings can use CJ Ham out of the backfield as a receiver. And, and there are offenses like the 49ers come to mind with Kyle use check who like, they're a very efficient and really good offense with the fullback on the field. And they don't have to run out of all those sets, but that's just something to keep in mind. Like, but as far as the big three for the Vikings who all fantasy players will

know, and they'll all probably go relatively early. I think cook and Jefferson, maybe both could be first round picks and in redraft, definitely cook. I would think Jefferson would be early second round and feeling maybe fourth or fifth round just because of the touchdowns.

But is there any reason why those three can't keep producing at a high level? I really don't think there is a reason they can't. So a little preview of our Kubiak full season projections that are about to come out. We have cook is the number three running back behind Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey, but ahead of Derek Henry and Austin Eckler. And we have Jefferson is the number two wide receiver behind just Cooper Cup. I mean, I guess your question with these guys and in particular with Cook and Thielen may be more

injury related where neither of them has like missed a ton of time the way that say Irv Smith has, but Cook has never played more than 14 games in a season. For instance, Thielen has missed what six, one and four games the last three years. but they've been very effective when they've been on the field, and so much of the Vikings' work is concentrated in those star players that it makes them a little bit easier to predict, even if the offense is kind of changing its stripes a little bit. With Thielen, you mentioned the touchdown thing, but I think that's something that fantasy players that aren't so focused on the Vikings can forget about, where he's actually averaged 0.85 end zone targets per game since 2018. That's the 10th most among wide receivers. It's up there with

like your Mike Evans and DK Metcalfs of the world. And I don't think that's the perception people have of Phelan, but he's big. He's 6'2 and 200 pounds and just very savvy, can kind of find pockets in the end zone. That's something that I would bank on more than I would with most players where I think that the work in the, in the red zone is going to be there where he's probably going to be a heavy touchdown score. If he can stay healthy this season. Yeah. I'm not sure if Phelan will ever have another a thousand yard season. He certainly could, if he stays healthy with 17 games. I mean,

we saw him do that in a 2017 and 2018, which was kind of his peak, but even if he doesn't like hit 14 touchdowns and 10 touchdowns the last two years like even with missing some time in there like he just he has the rapport with Kirk Cousins um so and he just and he knows like he understands like you said the leverage in this space and uh the field shrinks when you get down to the red zone but he's so good at kind of finding those seams and getting open. So I think that even as his age continues going up and he's on kind of the past his prime, those touchdowns still kind of give him a solid floor with with Cook. It's a lot of it is just staying healthy. He's getting a little older too but i think this uh this change in offense could be good for him

maybe like cutting down his workload ever so slightly to keep him on the field more and then maybe he's going to be used more as a receiver which which helps you out if you're in a a ppr or a half point ppr league and then with jefferson my view is just like the dude is unbelievable he's a superstar the only real thing you could say is that like, there's always injury risk with, with every position and he's been able to stand on the field really well. And then just maybe there'd be a little regression because it's just really hard to have a 1600 yard, 10 touchdown season.

Like defenses are going to be keying in on him, but a lot of people, like a popular thing you'll see on Twitter is like, Oh, Justin Jefferson is going to be usedying in on him but um a lot of people like a popular thing you'll see on twitter is like oh justin jefferson is going to be used in the cooper cup role and i don't think that's true because cooper cup is like one of the maybe the best run blocking wide receiver in the league but if they can just vary justin jefferson's route concepts and and some of the ways he's used put him in more motion um i i could I could see him having another huge year. I mean, he's just going to keep getting better, it seems to me. And, I mean, we're projecting a bit of regression relative to last year,

which is obviously just kind of outrageous. But part of it, too, is with the new coach, I think they're probably going to pass the ball more than they have traditionally. So, like, we're projecting Kirk Cousins to throw 583 pass attempts compared to 539 averaged over the last two seasons. So even if Jefferson doesn't have quite the outrageous per touch production, this is maybe kind of a rising tide lifting the boat situation where he's going to get a ton of work and a pass at the offense.

We're projecting him for 1,451 yards. So it's just like a ridiculous total to project. It's like an average season for a guy. It's just, a ridiculous total to project is like an average season for a guy. It's just he's unbelievably good. Yeah, what a steal for the Vikings in that draft two years ago. But Scott, thank you so much for for coming on. This has been great by the time that this airs. I those the Kubiak projections will probably be out.

So where can people find those? Yep. Everyone should head to football outsiders.com as of Thursday, the 30th, those will be up on the site, probably around midday. They can check those out. I also encourage everybody to check out the football outsiders almanac, which is coming up in a few weeks. We'll preview the season and have a ton of great Viking specific content for

anyone. That's a fan. One last thing. Follow me on Twitter at Scott underscore Spratt fantasy. and otherwise i'd love to chat with you guys yeah can't recommend uh enough football outsiders dvoa all the things they do the almanac is awesome um huge sections breaking down every team you're not going to be right in the viking section again this year i'm not but we have derrick class and is our our number one film scout on the site. It's, it's going to be more interesting than mine last year. I guarantee that. Okay. Yeah. That'll be really good. Derek's great. All right, Scott. Yeah. Everyone go follow him on Twitter. Check out football outsiders. Thanks for coming on, man.

Thanks Will. Really appreciate it. And good luck to your Vikings this year. All right. We're going to move into some questions now from Twitter. We do this every few shows. So keep an eye out if I ask for questions on Twitter and, uh, and hit me with them and maybe I'll answer it. First one comes from Nazir Webb at no fear Nazir. Everyone's talking about the offense, but do you think the defense can be top 10 this season? Yeah, I do. I think that's reasonable. That would be, uh, in the better half of outcomes, obviously, and health will be a big deal. But the pieces are

there roster-wise. If you have Daniil Hunter and Zedaria Smith staying healthy most of the year, that's a really strong edge duo. They've got the defensive tackles with veteran experience. They've got the inside linebackers. The question is going to be the secondary, but I'm cautiously optimistic about that with the combination of the three safeties, Harrison Smith, the rookie Louis Seane, and Cam Bynum. And then at cornerback, I think Cam Dantzler. This is a big, big year for him, year three. Patrick Peterson's still solid. Maybe Andrew Booth, the rookie, factors in.

So I don't think it's out of the possibility at all that the Vikings are a top 10 defense from Zach Haugen at Z Haugen football. What pieces do you think the Vikings would need to add non-quarterback to be a legit Superbowl contender with cousins? If you think that's possible? Sure. Anything's possible. I mean, I think you would need a lot for a Kirk cousins led team to be a Superbowl contender, but it's not totally outrageous. I thought that him and Matthew Stafford were in somewhat similar tiers in recent years, and then Stafford went to the Rams on a loaded roster, and they won the Super Bowl. I do think Stafford's a little bit better than Cousins, especially in some kind of key areas, but it's not a huge separation.

So the two places I think you would really want to address for the Vikings to be a Super Bowl contending roster with Kirk Cousins would be the offensive line and the cornerbacks. If you put like Trent Williams, who's the best left tackle in football on this team, obviously we're not talking like realistic additions here. I'm just talking hypothetical. If you put Trent Williams at left tackle tackle like jc treader or some good center uh in the middle and then maybe upgraded that right guard as well that could be a top 10 top 5 offensive line uh with brian o'neill and ezra cleveland in there as well uh and then corner, I think you would just want two brand new outside cornerbacks, like really like AJ Terrell and JC Jackson or something like that. Like if you had

a loaded offensive line and really good cornerbacks with the rest of this current Vikings roster, I think they might be a Super Bowl contender. You'd probably want to add a few more pieces here and there, but I think Kirk Cousins could potentially take that team to the Super Bowl. This is from J.A. Snyder123 on Twitter. What front seven defenders could surprise some people this year? Last year, Watts stepped up nicely for a later round pick. Lynch, Twyman, Jones, Robinson came to mind as young players. Don't see much of a path for linebackers, though, to get in the rotation with Kendricks and Hicks there. So yeah, I mean, you named some of the best candidates there. James Lynch, Jalen Twyman, Patrick Jones, and Janarius Robinson. If I had to choose out of those four, I think I'd go with Robinson, even though we didn't see anything from him last year

and he was drafted around after Jones in 2021 I just think his length is really really intriguing he's been working out a lot with both Daniil Hunter and Z'Darrius Smith this offseason so there's there's some hype there just from from him soaking up everything he can from those guys just strictly like frame wise like the physical tools Robinson's even more interesting than Jones, I think. Jones had more production in college and saw the field last year, and Robinson was hurt. But I think I would pick him as somebody who could potentially surprise in kind of his rookie year, his second season. And then I would throw out the rookies as well.

Brian Asamoah, I know that there might not be a ton of playing time available if Eric Hendricks and Jordan Hicks are healthy all year, but Asamoah could see the field in some packages and his sideline to sideline speed is really impressive. And then Asesio Tomowo, the fifth round defensive lineman. I think he's got a chance to get on the field. At AJ Murphy 763 asks, looking at the schedule, what game do you think is a typical trap game for us this season? So I'll give you two. The first one is week three at home against the Detroit Lions. That game is post. So in week two, the Vikings go to Philadelphia, Monday Night Football, the first week of Monday Night Football. Big national TV game against a fellow NFC wildcard contender in Philly. Then you come home for the lions and the next week they go to London to face

the saints, which will be another big game. So that's right in between two big games. I think the lions are always kind of easy to overlook. It'll only be the second home game for the Vikings of the year. And I, I don't think they'll overlook it, but that, that does scream trap game to me and the lions have, have the roster to be a little bit frisky this year. And then the other one I'll say is week nine at the Washington Commanders. So the game before that, the Vikings play the Arizona Cardinals at home.

And the game after that, the Vikings go to the Buffalo Bills for what is probably their toughest game all season, are up there with going to the Lambeau to play Green Bay. But I think the Bills are better than the Packers. So that might be their toughest game all season are up there with, with going to the Lambeau to play green Bay. But I think, I think the bills are better than the Packers. So that might be their toughest game of the year. So natural to look ahead to that making week nine at Carson Wentz and the commanders, a bit of a trap game, possibly at seven, seven, nine, zero school. What would it take for Jefferson to win the NFL MVP nfl mvp my friend it is literally impossible okay not literally impossible but it is as close to being literally impossible as it possibly can

be because we saw what cooper cup did last year he had the greatest receiving season in nfl history almost 2 000 yards triple crown all of that unreal numbers and he got one out of 50 mvp votes so i think justin jefferson would need approximately 3 000 yards and 25 touchdowns to win the nfl mvp at or it's not at just paul b asks who's going to return punts and i think my my gut tells me jalen naillor, the rookie from Michigan state, just because he's done it. I think he, he makes the roster, uh, and he's just an explosive athlete with the ball in his hands. And the reason I say Jalen Naylor is, well, the, first of all, there aren't that many clear candidates on the roster because they didn't bring D.D. Westbrook back.

The guy who's done it before and is on the roster is K.J. Osborne. But, A, he wasn't very good at it when he did it in 2020. And, B, he's an important part of this offense as probably the number three wide receiver. So I don't know if they're going to want him returning punts. So I think it'll be somebody else, which like the only candidate who's done it recently is Jalen Naylor, the rookie. And he didn't even do it that much at Michigan State, but he did it a little bit. Two other guys that you could maybe keep an eye on, Albert Wilson, the receiver they signed recently. He hasn't really returned punts in the NFL, but he did it back in college, way back in the day. And then Amir Smith-Marset is somebody who Vikings special teams coordinator Matt Daniels said they were kind of cross training

because he's he returned kickoffs at Iowa and was going to be in the mix to do that last year until Kanae Wong kind of seized that job but he's got the the speed and and the kind of agility with the ball in his hands to be interesting if they can get him going at that spot so I think it'll be Jalen Naylor but there's a few candidates to watch, maybe even some cornerbacks or defensive players to keep in mind. We'll see how that shakes out. At dev WK, is an Anthony Barr rework deal still possible? If 3-4 defense may be all he needs for a late career success story? I don't think so. I get the sense, and this is not like me reporting anything new. I get the sense that that door has kind of closed. Barr does not have any connection to this regime. Obviously, this regime has spoken about like what he's meant to not only the Vikings organization,

but the community in the Twin Cities and things like that with what he does off the field and he had a great run here on the field the last few years some injuries and a little decline in his play but I don't think a reunion is going to happen I don't think it really fits I think even Barr probably will want kind of a change of scenery to see if that helps spark his career a little bit. The Dallas Cowboys are routinely floated as a place that would maybe make sense for him. This is from Wade Means at Joker Man 5000. This is going to upset a certain segment of the fan base, but until Kwesi finds a great quarterback or alternatively a merely okay quarterback at a cheap price,

aren't we really just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic that is one way to phrase it and you know what you could say that and i would not argue against it too passionately um because the one thing that really helps you win in the nfl well the two things are a really good elite quarterback or ideally an elite quarterback on a rookie contract, but either an elite quarterback or a cheap quarterback. And Kirk Cousins is neither of those. He's a good quarterback, sometimes a great quarterback at a high price tag. So, yeah, my answer is I wouldn't argue against you phrasing it that way. So the Vikings have made their choice. They extended Kirk Cousins. The new regime wants to see what he can do in a year under Kevin O'Connell, an offensive minded head coach who he has a relationship with,

who is just going to be better for him in theory than, than Mike Zimmer was. And then the, then the, the constant like cycle of offensive coordinators was. So we'll see if that works out. And if it does, then great. And if they get near a Super Bowl, then maybe they'll run it back. But if this goes poorly and the Vikings don't make the playoffs and maybe Kirk doesn't play well or worst case scenario,

I mean, they're even worse than like a 500 level team, which is hard for me to envision. Then I think changes, change could be coming as soon as next off season, because Casey isn't going to want to stake his job for too long on Kirk cousins, which is why it was just a short-term extension this off season, I think. So we'll see. And then lastly from Sam Klein at Sam dunk 97, how many all pro selections do you think the Vikings will have this year?

I will go with three. I think Justin Jefferson, assuming he stays healthy is kind of a lock. He's been a second team all pro in both of his first two seasons. I think he could make that push for the first team this year. Although there's, I mean, there's so many talented receivers, but I think you just have to be one of the top five receivers to get an all pro nod. And I don't see how that Justin Jefferson doesn't do that. If he stays healthy.

And then I'll say two out of the Vikings next tier of candidates, which includes like Brian O'Neill, Dalvin Cook, Daniil Hunter, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, Kanae Wongwu, who kind of has better odds than most to make it because he just has to like return a couple of kicks for touchdowns and he can get that kick return role on the All-Pro team. So I'll say three, I'll say JJ and then two out of that next tier. And that'll wrap up our question segment and this week's show. Thanks to everybody for submitting the questions. And thanks again to Scott for coming on the show this week. Tune in next week and keep an eye on my Twitter at Will Raggetts for future

calls for Twitter questions. Thanks, guys.