Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Trade proposals, a 12th overall pick pie chart and what pick would drive Vikings fans crazy -- a Fans Only podcast

Episode Date: April 24, 2022

Matthew Coller answers fan questions from emails and Twitter about the Minnesota Vikings' plans for the NFL Draft. Fans have questions about what it would take to trade for Deebo Samuel, why Malik Willis is considered a top prospect, how the Vikings' culture might result in success and a pie chart of which positions they could take on Thursday night. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, and this is another fans-only episode where I take the questions that have been sent to me either through Twitter or through email at purpleinsider.com and break them all down. And I try not to read them too much beforehand so I can give you instant reactions. And guys, we are getting closer and closer to draft day and you have a lot of great questions here so I'll try to go fast and not ramble on when it comes to the questions

so I could get through a lot of them because a lot of them pertain to the draft so I don't want to take too long and get stuck with a lot of questions that I didn't answer and then have the draft happen and so forth so I'll try my best to get through all the questions that I have here for fans only. So as always, let's start by opening a Diet Dr. Pepper. Take a little sip here. And now I have the energy for this. Okay, here we go. We start off with at a Huckles one for fans only. If Debo Samuel makes it known that he wants to be in Minnesota and San Francisco calls, offering Debo and a 61st overall pick for No. 12 and Adam Thielen, does Kwesi Adafo Mensah make that trade? So you're talking about Debo Samuel and the 61st pick for No. 12 and Adam Thielen. Okay. So one thing that is always a struggle with trying to figure out draft, uh, compensation of what picks to send and trades and things like that is that you always

want your team to win the trade by a lot. And this would be winning the trade by a country mile. And I just don't think that San Francisco is interested in giving Debo Samuel away. So what we found out over the last month or so before free agency hit, before they had to redo contracts and things like that, was that players who don't have very favorable contracts or age are just not worth a whole lot in the NFL. So when you think about Amari Cooper, who is younger than Adam Thielen, and at this point in his career, better than Adam Thielen, he went for what a fifth round pick was he traded to Cleveland for? I mean, that tells you about how much contract plays into making a trade when someone already has an unfavorable deal that they are locked into. And that's the case with Adam

Thielen, where not only has he had injury issues in two of the last three seasons, but his age and, you know, when you're talking about his, uh, you know, production has been, I think, 57 catches per year over the last three seasons. And then trying to project what he's going to do into the future, plus how much he costs over the next two years. These are not helpful things to the San Francisco 49ers. If it was just player talent for player talent, you could see a Debo and a second round pick for the Vikings first and Adam Thielen. But Debo Samuel, even though he will be signing a contract that's very expensive, is in his prime and somebody you expect for the next five years plus to be one of the most dominating

weapons in the NFL. That is not how you would look at Adam Thielen. Adam Thielen is kind of a year-to-year guy at this point i'm just the reality of the league is that he could continue to have a larry fitzgerald career where he's good into his 30s or anquan bolden like there have been players like him who have done this but the league is not looking to acquire those players and yeah a first round pick is good for san francisco but not giving up their second to do it uh that's not a very good uh trade for san francisco i think it would have to be much more something like the vikings first this year and first next year and adam theelin

for 61 and debo samuel it's probably a much higher price because even though we might look at Adam Thielen and say, he's still very effective. He's still very good. Uh, another team is going to look at the risk of his age and his contract and, and, and go, no, no, no, I can get much better than that. Um, and I, and when you look at what the compensation for Tyreek Hill was, that is much closer to what San Francisco is going to be looking for if they do trade Debo Samuel. I mean, it's going to be just a whole host of picks coming back their way, especially with the value that wide receivers and playmaking wide receivers are bringing. I mean, look at what Debo Samuel did for that San Francisco offense with very average quarterback play this year.

That's what any team is going to be looking at, a franchise-changing type player who can win MVP. That's not worth trading that in your second to try and get a first-round pick and an older wide receiver. Okay. But, you know, I think that if you're the Vikings, you have to check what the price is and say, okay, you know, could we give away two picks and, and, you know, sign Debo Samuel to an extension and all those things. But from what was reported by Adam Schefter, I got the sense that Debo Samuel wants to be in Carolina.

That was what Adam Schefter reported, was he would rather be closer to home, closer in the southeast to his family. And that was one of the issues, along with he wants to play wide receiver exclusively and not be used as a running back. So I just don't think that the Vikings are really in this conversation at all for Debo Samuel. Unfortunately, I mean, he's a super fun player to watch and Debo Samuel and Justin Jefferson would be pretty incredible. Okay. This comes from at Teddy James 54 on Twitter. I don't really see the difference between Kellen Mond and Malik Willis. Mond seems every bit as athletic and strong-armed as Willis, and Mond at least played top competition in college. No, there's quite a bit of difference between Kellen Mond and Malik Willis.

Malik Willis has a much better ability to run with the football. I mean, it's not even close. Malik Willis running could be close to Lamar Jackson running. I remember our friends at PFF, Sam Monson compared him to Cordell Stewart. He is that level explosive, not quite on a Michael Vick level, but one notch below that, a huge difference maker, like above a Jalen Hurts, huge difference maker in the run game. And that's very, very different from Kellen Mond, who offered zero in the run game. He was mostly a pocket quarterback in college with the occasional scramble.

Running a 40 is not running ability, right? So when Malik Willis gets in space, he led, I believe he led the nation in broken tackles. The guy is really difficult to take down. He's really shifty. He's really explosive. That's not Kellen Mond at all. The other difference is Kellen Mond severely lacked big time throws in college. Like he has a strong arm, technically speaking, like in a pro day with nobody around, but when he's throwing the ball in games,

it's not of the velocity of Malik Willis. And Malik Willis was one of the tops in the nation in terms of big time throws. And think about his receivers probably weren't open all that often at Liberty. So you can play that whole game all you want with, well, he didn't have top competition, but he also didn't have top teammates.

Malik Willis came from Auburn. so he was recruited to a top program, just went someplace that he would have a better chance to play. But when you're at the top of the nation in big time throws and you have an absolute cannon where you can throw the ball 75 yards in the air like Malik Willis can. That's not similar to Kellen Mahn. Also, when I've talked to people about Kellen Mahn, the thing that they bring up all the time is that his mechanics are so stiff that it really holds him back from maximizing his physical strength. So he's a guy that runs a 4-5, which, by the way, Malik Willis would probably be closer to a four or four if, if he ran it. Uh, and he could throw the ball in the backyard really far and really hard, but when he gets into games and he's having to do it on the fly, he's very much like an average

throwing velocity quarterback. Um, so I think that there's really a huge difference between these two prospects that Malik Willis is much closer to a Josh Allen like prospect. That's not me saying he becomes Josh Allen just in terms of a prospect. He's much closer to that than he is to a third rounder like Kellen Mond. And hey, like quarterback value didn't change last year. Like teams knew how valuable quarterbacks were last year and the whole league evaluated Mond decided he was a mid-round pick and then was instantly right. So if the whole league looks at Willis and says he's a top five, seven, 10 pick, I mean, that kind of tells you the difference in physical tools and upside that those two players have. The other thing too, is

when you play four years in college and you're never great, like Helen Mond was never great. He was just okay. Just an average college quarterback for four years. There's no, there's no upside there. Like Malik Willis at times at Liberty was great during his college career. Okay. A second question from at Teddy James cousins. I remember on a previous podcast, you had a PFF guy on who said cousins was the best quarterback in the NFL on the first read or maybe first two, it was first read. And I don't know if it was best, but he was very good. Um, on the first read and that those were 78% of his throws, uh, 67% of his throws are on the first read is the number. Does that qualify in his elite characteristic if so could that get us to a super bowl chris trapasso also mentioned much of the passing game

is scheme nowadays and it got me thinking maybe that's just wishful hoping well the answer would be if it did then it would have i mean kirk cousins is in his 10th year in the NFL. So think about this. First read throws mean if you can execute the play, you can make the right read on your first look and step and deliver to a receiver, especially when you have really good receivers like Kirk Cousins does. And that is a first read statistic also because that guy needs to win his route. And when you have Justin Jefferson, Stefan Diggs, Adam Thielen, if those guys are your first read, they are winning their route all the time. So you could actually use this as a wide receiver statistic to talk about how receivers impact quarterbacks. If two out of every three throws is on a first read, that means if you have a

receiver who the play is designed to go to who can win and win and win that's going to really really help your quarterback and all he has to do is deliver on that first read the other part of it is a third of throws is a lot of throws and when it's past the first read or a check down or a scramble, like those make up a lot of plays. And you think about like we could break it up pretty easily into what? I'm not going to do math here, but 600 throws and you break that up into thirds. Right. So maybe 400 of those throws are first read and there's a lot of value to be had there but 200 plays where he goes from being elite to being at the bottom

when it comes to scrambling checkdowns or and checkdowns doesn't mean a lot it means effective checkdowns uh or going to his next read i mean that's a lot of that's a lot of plays and it's a lot of plays that are the difference often in the playoffs between getting deep or winning big games or beating good defenses i think you see this throughout even just hit the history of the game uh where you know you have like yeah like it isn't an elite characteristic no i don't think of characteristics that way either by the way like just i mean sorry to make two points at once but through the history of the league it's usually big arm guys making special plays and special throws and a lot of times it's off schedule John Elway Patrick Mahomes Aaron Rogers and then Tom Brady is the best at all those other things he's the best at second third reads

he's the best at pocket movement and shuffling up in the pocket staying alive most accurate passer probably of all time I mean like if you're going to be that guy you have to have those traits uh to win but when we talk about traits like accuracy is kirk cousins best trait is that when he has time to throw and can step and deliver he's one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the nfl and that bears out statistically But if you can only really use that trait to its maximum two thirds of the time, and then you take away those first reads that were pressured, you know, where it's, you're taking away those as well. I mean, that's, that's, that's just a lot of football that can be the difference.

And it often has been the difference. Does it mean he absolutely can't win a Superbowl? No, I mean, it doesn't, but 10 years into the league, I mean, we're getting to the point where if that trait being accurate on your first reads was the one. And I think that the point that Chris Trapasso was making is that a lot of quarterbacks are being schemed so much help that it is those two-thirds, or it is that one-third, I mean, that one-third that makes the difference between good and great because so much of it is being schemed and so many receivers are

very good at getting open that the difference maker is not who can first read best. Like it might've been 20 years ago. It's who can do the other stuff the best and and i think we've really seen that bear out uh here with the vikings all right this is uh the next question from my mate my name at my name is hunter all right what do you think of this potential trade here we go again folks delvin cook a 2022 first so 12th overall kj osborne and a 2023 fifth rounder to the 49ers for Debo Samuel 2023 first and Elijah Mitchell frees up money for the Vikings to give Debo a contract allows the team to pivot to pass first offense and offers ammo to move up for a quarterback next year now I won't spend too much time on this because we already talked about trade proposals that absolutely rob the other

team blind and this would be another one uh yeah i mean delvin cook has no value in a trade he's a good player and will probably be good but absolutely zero teams in the nfl are trading for an expensive running back that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to do, especially a running back with injury history and one who is going into the twilight of most running back careers. Giving up a first rounder even for next year, like Debo Samuel is unbelievably valuable. Like he's like a peak value type of player

where the team doesn't have to give him away. He's super young and you can sign him to a contract that will keep him with your team for a long time and does not have to be insanely expensive right away like there's this perfect convergence of value of how good Debo Samuel is so you're more of like giving up all that stuff for Debo alone two players a first round draft pick another draft pick and you're not getting back also i think they like elijah mitchell so you're probably not getting him back but especially not another

first round pick i mean if trades work this way the vikings would be much better they would just do them all the time right um i i wish for your guys sake that it did we would have so much fun if there were trades like this all the time uh there's this game ken griffey jr's slugfest for n64 for you millennials where you could actually do stuff like this uh you could trade and get a better player and then trade him for a slightly better player and trade him for a slightly better player and if all you did was add replacement level free agents to the trade the game would accept it and so you could trade your way all the way up to having ken griffey jr on your team every time and i think that's kind

of what you're looking at for this kind of deal um if it was just if they were willing to take cook which i don't think that he has a whole lot of value cook a first rounder osborne a fifth for samuel it still doesn't get the job done. Probably. It just doesn't because KJ Osborne also has no trade value. Like he's again, a player that you want, but has no trade value. What video games always make it out to be is like, Oh, uh, this player has three out of 10 trade value, but in the NFL it's most, it's like zero or 10 is your trade value. You either have great trade value and everyone's trying to get you, or no one's making that phone call unless you're giving up an absurdly bad trade.

If you were trading KJ Osborne for a seventh round pick, okay. But as a throw in, a number three wide receiver who's had one decent year is just not going to get it done. But I appreciate the creativity. And so this is the thing. a number three wide receiver who's had one decent year is just not like going to get it done. Um, but I appreciate the creativity. I mean, so this is the thing. It's like being realistic about this. I also want you guys to send me trade proposals and because I, I love them and I love thinking about a different trade. So I love the creativity there. I just feel like our first two potential Debo Samuel trade offers have just been such huge wins for the Vikings that you're not dealing with the Jaguars here. You're dealing with the 49ers. They're a

pretty smart team. All right. This comes from at Skull Geek. Which position group is the deepest in this draft? Do you think the Vikings will be able to take advantage of that? How do you foresee an opportunity like that unfolding? All let me take a diet dr pepper drink here it appears to me that defensive end is really the most stacked position in this draft and like wide receiver i think that's not changing that there's going to be a lot of pass rushers i should say just pass rushers in general, because now outside linebackers are on the table with Ed Donatell. It's clearly the deepest position. Daniel Jeremiah said on Twitter one day that he saw 20 guys who he thought could be decent or really good NFL players.

You look at the top of the draft does not have some miles garrett but it's got some guys who are quite good george karlaftis is expected to kind of be around where the vikings are picking but there's a number of other guys who have really good potential even into the second round and that's how it could affect the vikings i think is that there's no major major upside guy in the first round like a der Stingley, who could be available at 12 and his upside is superstar. Like that's not really the case so much with the defensive ends other than cave on Thibodeau, who I think has the real high ceiling of the group. But you know, there, there is a lot of guys who could be starters and be average.

And, you know, when we were looking at that draft surplus study by Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus, and it found that if you get an average defensive end, the surplus value on that is very good. So even if you don't draft someone who becomes a superstar and you get a guy that gets seven sacks a year, that's really good value for you if you're drafting them especially if you take them in the second round that's going to be extremely good value i think that's where the vikings will look and and when we look at all the mocks which could be wrong they often are and usually are from year to year normally the best mocks get you know a handful of players to the right team, but let's just assume

that the mocks have it right. When it comes to where the defensive ends are going to go at the top of the draft and Aiden Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeau, those guys are going to go at the top and then the Vikings are left with the second tier. The difference between a guy like George Karolaptis, who is likely to be there when the Vikings pick, and maybe someone that they would take in the second round, is probably not so massive in terms of how good they are as a prospect that you feel like, oh, you have to do this right now. You can't wait until the second round. That's where I think it could affect the Vikings with that particular deep position. You know, there are quite a few corners that look like they could be available as the vikings

go into the second round too if if somebody drops like roger mccreary uh is considered kind of a early second round or late first but if he drops into the middle of the second you could do something like that andrew booth is getting a lot of hype but you know we don't know for sure that he's going to be in the first round so you know I think that there's there's a couple of positions there and wide receiver is another one there will absolutely in the second round be a wide receiver that the draft people like but we didn't expect to fall I mean George Pickens from Georgia the guy who didn't play a whole lot because of an ACL injury. You know, there's conversation about him at the late first, but again, there's always

somebody, maybe the Sky Moore hype is not that much the receiver from Western Michigan. So, you know, I think that those two positions in particular are where the Vikings have a need and they could also take advantage. Folks, Minnesota sports teams are in the playoffs. Yes, that's right. Playoffs, Minnesota sports teams is happening. And for all your Minnesota sports inspired gear, go to SodaStick.com. That's S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com. They have hockey, basketball, all sorts of great designs on hoodies, on shirts, on hats, everything you need.

Go there. Use the promo code Purple Insider for 15% off your purchase. Again, that is SodaStick, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com, 15% off with the promo code Purple Insider. All right, this is from at kev bot matthew do you think the culture is going to actually equate to more wins this year do good vibes do a whole lot for you well i mean that's a great question kev bot because i think that having a better culture can mean so many different things. And if it means that everybody is pulling in the same direction, that there isn't frustration in fighting, Mike Zimmer really created a situation where players felt very uncomfortable,

afraid to make mistakes. I mean, this comes right from one of his former players, Jeremiah Searles, who on the podcast earlier this year talked about that, that if you make a mistake with Zimmer, that's going to be somebody in your face and getting called out in meetings and things like that. And if you create a situation where players are more comfortable and where everybody kind of has the same goal instead of, OK, I'm trying to get my money, I'm trying to get my contract and whatever own businesses or have been a part of things like this, like team building and team culture. You know, I think it's proven to bear out that if people feel like they understand the goal of the team and they want to be a part of it and want to play their role as opposed to just whatever is out for them, that's meaningful in terms of production. But the issue is culture is usually just a result of your best players. Unlike a business where you can set things up as the owner or the CEO

to kind of manipulate that, I think in a competitive environment like this where you have stars and you have the guys who drive the success where it's really five players on every team that drive what's happening and then everybody else kind of has to just fit in. I don't know that there's a lot of businesses that are exactly like that. And it's so much talent based. It's also so much based on the leadership of the quarterback. And in this case, if you're only as good in terms of culture as your quarterback, which is so often what's going on in the NFL, how much can that equate not? Like, because it certainly didn't hold back Justin Jefferson the last two years. He had one of the greatest starts to his career in history. Why? Because he's a great player. Um, so if he's happier, I mean, does that mean he plays a lot better or is he still just a great player playing great? Um, you know, I, I don't know. So I think that that's hard. But I do think that if the overall feeling is better for this year, is it more wins? I don't know.

Maybe players are less afraid to take a risk or something like that than they would have been. But long term, I think it is long term. I think it has really positive implications that players want to stay. That is becoming a huge thing in the NFL that players want to stay, uh, that is becoming a huge thing in the NFL is players want to stay. And sometimes it's, you know, unavoidable. If somebody like Devante Adams wants to go to his hometown, he wants to play. Well, not, not his hometown, but wants to play for the Raiders, his hometown team. And with the quarterback he played with in

college, like, okay, there's not a whole lot you could do about that. But if somebody's on the fence and they're saying, well, team X or team Y are going to give me the same amount of money. Where am I happy? Where do I feel like our coach believes in me? Where do I feel like going to work every day is fun with my teammates and with my coach and where do I feel like the coach understands what I do best as a player in in that case you will keep people and if a lot of this is about Justin Jefferson which I think it is because he's such the you know the future of the team good vibes matters for the future because if that guy hates coming to work and he's succeeding in spite of it, then, well, is he really going to want to stay or is he going

to want to go find something else? So I think that, yeah, it does matter. It might help in terms of the communication where it's a difference maker on a blitz, how you communicate on a deep pass know, a deep pass who makes the adjustment in the secondary, like all those things, they take players communicating with each other. It's such a huge part of this league, a better culture facilitates better communication. And, uh, yeah, I mean, how many wins if it's the best culture ever, and maybe it's another win. I mean, that's probably how I would put it. If it's the best culture ever and maybe it's another win i mean that's probably how i would put it if it's

the best culture ever it's probably another win if you completely were to change the leadership element of the quarterback yeah i think that can result to more winning a lot because the quarterback drives so much of it all right this comes from at colinone 4. As a UK Vikings fan, thank you for listening from across the pond. Initially from Scotland, I was curious to see where David Ajabo would be drafted. Obviously, with the injury, it won't be first round anymore. Do you think he could be a day two option from the Vikings? For the Vikings? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so.

I mean, when we're talking about competitive rebuild, then we're talking about players who can help in to go, maybe at the end of this season and get their feet wet, and then next year be a starter or a huge rotational player, and they'll get a look at him and see where he's at, what he looks like in practice. If he's healthy enough to come back late in the season from the Achilles, how does the guy's mind work? Is he picking up the defense? Is he picking up the techniques? So if you were to draft someone like that in the third round i mean most third rounders aren't going to have a huge impact anyway how many third rounders have the vikings drafted that were an

above average player in their first year i mean pat elfline was probably an average center and we were celebrating that because it's a hard position in his first year uh cam danzler had some moments but didn't change the fate of the defense. Once you get past that second round, we saw this last year. Why am I even dipping back into the past? We saw this last year. Oh, this guy's going to start. This guy's going to play a big role. And none of them did because they're third round picks. You would rather spend that on someone with upside to be a good player in the future. Then you would somebody who

could quote help you right away because most of the time they can't help you right away a job in the second is a little tougher because i do think you're looking in the first and second round for players who can help you pretty soon but i mean still if it's all about upside and it's all about the rebuilding part for the draft then you could talk me into david ajabo for the second round if in the first round let's say they go wide receiver or corner then hey get him uh even though he has this achilles injury and yeah he won't help you this year, but he will in the future. Okay. Let's go to at Peter Yoko Bucci on Twitter. Hopefully I said that correctly.

If that's your real name. He says over the past five years, what teams, GMs teams slash GMs, do you think are the best evaluators of late third round plus draft talent? Well, okay. So I was trying to poke around and find something on this and I was looking for the most value that teams have gotten out of their rounds four through seven. And I did find something. This is from ESPN, a story that has the top five and bottom five teams from rounds four through

seven in the draft since 2021 so the packers are number one then the patriots ravens washington and the atlanta falcons are the top five and in the bottom saints giantss, Rams, and the New York Jets. And the gap is kind of big for those teams. But I don't know that that is a big enough sample size to say for sure that one team really has some epic strategy. Or if you just got lucky and hit on a couple of draft picks that were really good, that gave you a ton of value. So if you found someone in the fourth round or two or three players in a row that were really good, then your numbers are going to be great from 2012 to 2021 because there are so few hits

that I don't know if there's any particular strategy. There might be from these teams, but some of these teams, but there are, you know, some of these teams are good. The Packers and the Patriots and the Ravens, those teams are good at getting value out of rounds four through seven, but Washington and Atlanta are not good. And the saints are a good team who has drafted well in a lot of recent drafts. And then, you know, you have the and the Jets and the Browns who are horrendous and the Los Angeles Rams who are really good. So which one of these teams has a strategy or something that they're doing different

or the way that they have evaluated late round players, or has it just been that they won the lottery? I think that that's really hard to pick apart. I mean, so we have an answer to the question, but we have the what, but we don't really have the why. And, you know, that goes for the Vikings as well. I mean, you get in 2015, you get an incredible draft with a third round superstar and a fifth round superstar.

And since then then they have gotten neither one of those things and have not been able to repeat it at all, despite the fact that they continue to try. So I'm going to poke through here and maybe see with green Bay, since they're the number one team at getting the late round draft value. If there was something that they were doing something that I could pick out, uh I could pick out as a commonality that may have worked out for them. But, you know, just running through, I'm not sure that I see, oh, they clearly drafted this type of guy or that type of guy. Some of the players that were hits, they came from very different positions. So Micah Hyde was a great pick up for them in 2013. Defensive back out of Iowa.

Fifth round draft pick. Turned into a longtime starter. Really good player. The very next year, they got Corey Lindsley, who was a great center for a long time. And after that, you have Dean Lowry, who turned into a good player. Blake Martinez. Kyle Fackrell to a lesser extent, Fackrell to a lesser extent. And then Aaron Jones turns into a superstar as well.

Valdez Scantling and St. Brown both played pretty well in 2018. So you could see why they would have gotten a lot of value out of this. But interestingly, these are all guys at different positions. It's not like, oh, they drafted, you know, this position or this type of player. Um, they also got in 2013, JC Treader, who we know is a good player as well. So their 2013 and 14 drafts in the late rounds got Micah Hyde and JC Treader and Corey Linsley. And then they got Aaron Jones in the fifth round in 2017. I mean, I don't know if there's a rhyme or a reason to that.

I would say that drafting running backs in the later rounds, it's really funny. Jamal Williams, they picked in the fourth. And so they picked him in the fourth and Aaron Jones in the fifth and Jones became the decidedly better player. Running backs in the late rounds is probably a good idea because you get someone who's talented enough to be drafted but also you're not wasting a draft pick on a high selection that you have to play right away and that you know is more easily replaceable

that's probably a good strategy i also think that developing offensive linemen is a good strategy. I also think that developing offensive linemen is a good strategy from the later rounds. The Vikings have tried this without a lot of success, unfortunately for them. Um, but I do think that drafting the Drew Samia's, the only Udo's like those guys, it kind of just takes one. And it's also possible that, you know, they had somebody on their staff who was good at picking out late round offensive linemen with potential. But I also go through these drafts for the Packers and find a lot of offensive linemen that they took in the late rounds that didn't work out at all. So Jason Spriggs, they took even higher.

He didn't work out really at all. But I think it's a good strategy to pick those positions, to pick offensive line, pick tackles that you might move to guard or center in the late rounds because they might just have a little more physical potential. And then the wide receivers, while those guys, Equinemius St. Brown and Marquez Valdez Scanling, they had to play because the green Bay Packers didn't have better receivers and they produced because they had Aaron Rogers as their quarterback. So that's where you can look and say, well, they might've had some good strategies. They might've also had

a great quarterback that helped out some of their draft picks. But, you know, I do think there's something there to looking at positions in the later rounds that where can you find somebody that might develop? And a lot of times the Vikings went for this with defensive linemen. So they took, you know, Jalen Holmes. Oh, he's big. We're going to move his position. James Lynch, same thing. He got after the passers, a defensive end. We're going to move them to the inside and that has worked to some extent for them but not too often they've picked players who seem to have a little more high end like dylan mitchell that didn't work out or stacy coley that didn't work out but also picked players like bc johnson or um Fadi Adenabo who had lower ceilings, but could play, you know,

more football, like better. They were better from the technical elements that worked out to some extent and gave them some value. But, you know, it doesn't seem to me that there's any real, like this team has it figured out. This is what the Vikings should copy. Um, and that's why it worked. Uh, but when we look at the

vikings let's see where did they rank trying to trying to scroll down this piece to figure out where they ranked so they were they were 11th oh no wait that was their record they were 19th they were 19th in terms of late round value from 2012 to 2021 so this is an area that if Kweisi Adafo-Mensa has some potential angles with how to analytics the draft and spot fourth through seventh rounders with some potential, help you understand it better than I do. I mean, I tend to think it's a lot of just luck and randomness, but there has to be some edges to it. And if he can find them, then that'll be something we'll be looking for, I guess, is what's different from the late round picks this year than it was in the past. So that's a really good question i appreciate that all right let's get a few more here um let's see this is from alex j larson on twitter what is the most realistic based on team needs slash reports and draft projections player that the vikings could draft at 12 to absolutely disappoint and enrage the fan base. Who would be the worst but still reasonable pick?

Hmm. Well, when you make it still reasonable, that's a little harder. You know, I do think that a corner would disappoint a lot of people. Because it feels so Zimmery. And it feels so Spielman-y to just pick a corner in the first round. But, you know know it's it's a need and if it's Derek Stingley Jr. that's a high-end prospect so maybe that wouldn't enrage or disappoint um gosh would it be an interior defensive lineman maybe that's it Jordan Davis

if you took a 340 pound nose tackle when you already have Harrison Phillips and you have Delvin Tomlinson on the roster and decided to take a huge nose tackle that probably would make people pretty darn upset it's not considered unless it's an elite player one of the most valuable positions if it's an elite player then yeah those interior guys can take over we've seen that plenty of times here in minnesota but if it's not if it's an average or good player it's not giving you a ton of value over what you could just sign in free agency for a reasonable price it's i think that draft pick stuffing the run anything really to have to do with the run would enrage people. Tyler Linderbaum, I think, would be supported by maybe 25% of the fans, and 75% would be saying,

are you seriously drafting another center in the first round who's undersized and has small arms? That would probably do it. I think this one has more to do with what they don't draft than what they do draft. And I mean, Malik Willis, if they get to number 12 and Malik Willis is not taken and then say the Texans take him at 13 or somebody takes him right after, I think it's the saints at 16. They take Malik Willis. I mean, that's one where a lot of fans would be looking at that and saying, this is a quarterback with high end that you could develop to be a star,

potentially, in the future. And you decided to pass. Now, last year, they passed on the guy who had the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor, which was Mac Jones. Or at least that was the perception at the time based on the lowest ceiling but the highest floor which was mac jones or at least that was the perception at the time based on the athletic profile and the rationalization for that was well look you know who needs another kirk cousins if you're drafting someone you want to draft someone different now i disagree because i don't think that they're that similar i think that like

are you just looking at non elite athlete quarterbacks known for their accuracy and saying they're the same person? Like, cause they're not, but, uh, you know, I, I mean, I think that if you're looking for someone completely different than Kirk cousins, who matches up with the arm strength and the athletic profiles of some of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, Allen, Mahomes at the top of that list, then you're really not happy if they passed up with an opportunity to take one because you just don't know about next year. Next year does have better prospects on paper at this moment, but Sam Howell was supposed to be the number one pick at this moment last year, at this year out year at this,

you know, a year out. So we don't know how things are going to go for certain guys. Like there's still talk about Spencer Rattler. Like we don't know if he looks anything like a top pick and there's no guarantee that you get them, especially if you go nine and eight, if you go 10 and seven, are you getting a top three quarterback pick next year like probably not so if they passed on malik willis with an opportunity to take someone with a top notch arm in athleticism i think you'd get 60 70 of people being like why would you do that for a corner and you know i think i think that's fair and nobody knows how it's going to work out with Willis. Like he, he might get into the NFL and just be shell shocked and be terrible. I mean,

we've certainly seen it before, but passing on the upside of that player, uh, I think would be the thing that is reasonable and could very well happen that Willis could go past 12 and he could be available and they could pass on him that would make the most people upset. Uh, this comes from Robert T. Seaman on Twitter, S E A M A N by the way, uh, pie chart. What do you think is the most likely to be taken first by the Vikings in the draft? Maybe it's number 12. Maybe we trade back. Who knows? Corner, wide receiver, quarterback, edge rusher. Well, you know, there is wisdom in crowds and the wisdom in recent crowds that mock the Vikings, uh, you know, previous years have been pretty accurate. Like in 2020, we all knew corner and wide receiver, wide receiver and corner. Uh, you know, even 2019, a lot of people were mocking Garrett Bradbury to the Vikings. So the outside world, it has been pretty good as a

whole at looking at the Vikings needs and mocking them the right area. If we believe in that, then corner should get the vast majority of this. And then probably pass rusher because i think there's a possibility of them trading down and taking a pass rusher that might be another another very plausible thing to happen wide receiver we've all been on the wide receiver train or many of us have been on the wide receiver train uh as that's the best position to pick because that's the one that could help you right away help you long term-term, uh, the Jefferson thing. Like we don't have to go over all the reasons right now, but if they see it that way, that's what I don't know.

And we don't know how Kweisi Adafo-Mentor really views the whole positional value and everything else. Um, and quarterback remains a pretty long shot. I think, um, we just talked about the possibility that Malik Willis could be there at 12 and they pass. That's more realistic than taking him, I think. So I'm going to go, I'm going to give corner 40%. I will give edge rusher, let's go 30. And so that's 70.

We'll say wide receiver gets 25. So we're up to 95 and 5% quarterback. That doesn't mean it's impossible. It just means for the first player taken, I don't see it as a very high chance that they would go quarterback. I do think that they might look at some of the numbers and some of their scouting reports and think about the upside and the price

and all those things and consider a quarterback who drops into the second or consider trading back into the late first, say in front of Detroit to take whatever quarterback they like the most that I do think is possible, more possible than that player being their first pick. Uh, okay. So, oh gosh, I deleted the person's name who asked this question. Okay, if it's you, then you know it's you. And I'm really sorry for this, but I pulled them all into a file, and so I can't go back and look, or it would take a while to go back and look and find who said this. But it's a good question, so I'm going to ask it anyway.

With the Vikings' first and second round picks, if they were to pick a corner and wide receiver, would you rather get Garrett Wilson at 12 and Roger McCreary at 46 or Derek Stingley at 12 and Sky Moore at 46? That's a good question for whomever. Anonymous. Anonymous question asker. And again, I'm sorry about that.

But I deleted your name. Sorry. asker and again i i'm sorry about that um but i deleted your name uh sorry but uh i will go with derrick stingley and sky more because it does not appear that there is a true elite receiver prospect that there's more a lot of good number twos who have a chance to be number ones if everything goes right for them and that's garrett wilson and i think sky more is very similar to that so i have dane brugler's the beast always uh up in front of me let me see how different he ranks these guys because i i feel like it's not that different so he's got well he's got garrett wilson number one and sky more number seven should i change my mind here maybe Should I change my mind here? Maybe

I should change my mind here because, uh, well, there's a lot of, there's a lot of reason to like Sky Moore. Like he's very shifty, very good after catch like things that would fit right away into a slot wide receiver, but then develop as well. Stingley has the high end of a shutdown corner, but I've always been the one who's talked about how corners are the weak link system. And maybe we want the impact receiver first, the guy with the higher ceiling who Dane Brugler has his best receiver in the class. Okay, let's do that.

Yeah, let's go. I mean, both of these results would be very good for them, by the way, but let's go best receiver in the class. And then a good corner prospect, as opposed to a great corner prospect with red flags and a wide receiver with maybe less upside in Skymore. That is a great question. And, you know, send me a tweet if you're listening to this and that was your question. So I can apologize on the next fan only podcast. Uh, okay. Let's blast through a couple more. I know we've gone for a

while here and if you're still listening, you are the absolute best and I appreciate you. Um, how did the Vikings escape purgatory is the only hope to have a 2017 esque saints draft, or I guess you could also call it a 2015 Vikings draft. Well, escape purgatory in the short term in the next two years does require that probably. It does require if Kirk Cousins is still the quarterback hitting on a lot of things because the roster, though there are different names on defense, is not much different in terms of the talent that they have. And on offense, it's all the same people.

You know, I don't think even if Chris Reid is good, that Chris Reid is so next level good that he's way better than what Josh Klein was for them a couple of years ago, something like that. That the production that they're going to be able to put up for 2022, it looks similar to what they've done in the last two years. And maybe it's a 2019 like season where you don't play that many great quarterbacks and you have a good schedule and you make the playoffs with 10 wins. That seems like where they're at for this year. And then if you hit on a bunch of draft picks for this year, then by 2023, you might have a chance. So if let's say they take Garrett Wilson and he turns out to be really good and you've got jefferson wilson and adam thielen redoes his contract again or whatever and that's your trio and you go out and sign a free agent guard and then you know kevin o'connell's

culture is great and everything's going your way and you hit on a shutdown corner ed donatell's loading up the defense now you've developed this player that player can bind them for example you know that then you could be a legit contender especially if aaron rogers is done after this year or if he's fading again kind of where to where he was in say 2018 where he's not quite as dominant and let's say the Bears rebuild has failed and the Lions rebuild has failed, which, you know, very possible. That right there could take them out of the purgatory. Well, Kirk Cousins is still the quarterback. But I mean, I think the answer, most likely answer, is the one that you already know, which is they draft a quarterback. And that's either this year or next year.

And then that quarterback is the guy that you build around. And that's how this year or next year. And then that quarterback is the guy that you build around and that's how you escape purgatory. Um, so long-term that will happen long-term eventually. We just don't know when, uh, we don't know if it's this year, if it's next year, but you know, cousins is not going to be the quarterback at 42. It's not going to be like the next decade of Kirk cousins as quarterback. The other thing too, for escaping purgatory would be if the Vikings set themselves up really well, and then there's a disgruntled quarterback, uh, you know, in 2024 say who we couldn't possibly predict who that's going to be right now, but, or, you know, if they did convince Kirk Cousins to wave his no trade clause to be traded before next year, like that's always a

possibility too but that seems like it's a couple of years out so there's a thin needle to thread for the next two seasons where they have to make a lot of great draft picks a lot of great decisions and Kevin O'Connell has to kind of make good on all the reasons that they hired him and then you can be in that mix again. Cause right now, you know, by Vegas standards, the Vikings are favored to miss the playoff. So you're not in that mix right now, but if they hit on draft picks, had a stronger roster going into 2023, Kirk Cousins say has another good year. They win 10. Then you're going to be back in that. Okay. Could they surprise people type of

ballpark? Um, but you kind of have to circle 2024 on your calendar is the year where everything really has to change. There's almost no choice this year. They chose to stick around with this route, but after the next two years, there really is no, no choice. Um, so that's a, that's a good question. That came from, uh, at cat, cat and bird. Um, was that one on Twitter? That one, I didn't forget the name. Okay. I'm just going to blast through a couple more of these. The last three that I have, uh, this is from Chrissy snazza 84 says name one surprise move or action on draft night that would utterly shock you from the Vikings or any other team. Uh, Chrissy, I know is very supportive of the show. So I appreciate that Chrissy. Hopefully you're still listening all the way through to hear your question.

Um, you know, I, the biggest shock would just be player moves. Normally we go into the draft and there's all this buzz and everybody writes their articles. Here's 10 players who could be drafted or traded on draft night. And I remember it was maybe Daniel Jeremiah or Mike Mayock or somebody who every time the Vikings came around in the draft was like, I think this is when they trade Kyle Rudolph folks. A couple of years ago, never happened. And then a couple of years later, this is when they trade Anthony Harris. Maybe they'll trade it. It didn't happen.

There were all the rumors about Trent Williams. He did eventually get traded, but usually those player trades have not come to fruition. However, things are pretty crazy this year with all the movement around the NFL. So you could absolutely see a player trade happening. I don't know if it's for the Vikings, if it's Debo Samuel, if it's Baker Mayfield, but something to completely change the face of the draft because a player has been moved or if a team just decides, you know what? Bleep those picks like the Rams GM said, I'm going to trade

them for whatever player can help us win right away. Um, the other thing that would, it would actually shock me if it happened, even though I think it's a good idea is if Malik Willis went number two to the lions, I would be very, very surprised. I don't think they're going to do that. If they're going to pick a quarterback, maybe it's at 32 or they just don't pick one at all and keep loading up the roster around Jared Goff. But if they picked Malik Willis at two, I would be pretty surprised. This one goes, you know, the other one too is if Kyle Hamilton actually falls. I don't think that's going to happen or Kayvon Thibodeau. There's all this talk. I think it's an attempt of teams to get those guys to fall, but I don't think they actually will. Okay. Last two. If you're the GM, what would you do at 12? Trade back, trade up,

select a player. Who are the players that you would move up for if they're falling on draft night? Moving up is tough. I think Kayvon Thibodeau and Kyle Hamilton would be the only two that I would, but the price has to be very reasonable. I mean, there's a chart to figure out what the price would be. I'm not going to try to add up the math right now, but if you're talking about giving up, you know, the fourth rounder for next year and a fifth rounder from this year or something to move up a spot to take Kyle Hamilton or cave on Thibodeau that I would consider because I believe both of those players, based on their skills, could be superstars. And really, you need superstars to win.

And that's a pretty obvious statement, but that's what you should be swinging for when you're around the top 10 is trying to get a superstar. And if you feel like the drop-off after those guys is significant to where you stand at 12, then trading up, but not selling the franchise is a good idea. Trading back would just be a situation where you feel not really sold. If the guy that you want, say it's Stingley or say it's Jamison Williams, that guy is gone. And let's say the Vikings even were going to draft Malik Willis if he was there he's gone all right well the best player on the board is a tackle you don't need a tackle then you trade down and that's why all of these things if you're the GM it just has to be kind of fluid like you're

making decisions based on what's happening in front of you but I mean select a player goes for if the board is falling your way and it looks like Jamison Williams will be there. Or if it looks like Kayvon Thibodeau, Kyle Hamilton, one of those elite prospects will be there or Stingley, then you want to take them. But if there's a team that's desperate for a tackle and say, Icky Aquanu falls or Charles Cross or one of the guys that's supposed to be those top tackles that obviously we haven't looked a whole lot at. And there's a team looking to trade up. The one that would be hard is if it was Malik Willis and there's a team or two looking to trade up and

you're saying, well, I mean, this is a guy who could sit on the bench for a year or even two and develop, but the Saints are offering us X, Y, and Z for next year or the Steelers to be able to trade up. And then you can use that draft capital to trade up. If you want a top quarterback next year, you know, all those things. So I wish I could give you a definitive answer on that, but you really have to have a bunch of different strategies that you could take and base it on like what happens. Okay. Last one. This is from Jeff, uh, via the email. I've heard Everson Griffin speak on Ben Lieber's podcast. And he said that he's gotten help and is doing better. He wants to play again this year. Would

you take a chance on him? Uh, no, I would not bring him back, but I do wish Everson Griffin the best. And I think at this point you've just moved beyond that um and everson i'm not sure should come back to play that i mean he's a guy who absolutely stays in shape and is a great player i mean there's there's a few players that i've covered in my career where you just are kind of in awe of how good they are and Everson Griffin is one of them. But yeah, I think where he is probably even physically at his age and the issues that have happened in the past, you probably just want to, you know, build a new locker room, I think, and, and have, you know, just not, not take the risk of having him

be halfway through a season and then not be able to complete it. And last year, I mean, you talk about distractions and, you know, the team was very emotional and dealing with his issue and all that sort of stuff. So look, I don't want to be the person that says, well, you know, somebody who's dealing with mental health problems, you shouldn't hire them. Like, no, no, no, no, no. That's not what I'm saying. At this point with Hunter and Zedaria Smith in place, it's probably not the best idea to keep going back to the Everson Griffin.

Well, uh, although I hope that whatever is best for him happens in his life, uh, because you know, he's dealt with a lot in his life and you hope it's better for him and his family so okay well epic epic fans only podcast purpleinsider.com you can get your questions in and i will try to do one more before the draft i think uh i have so many guests coming up this week. Brett Coleman, who's great on YouTube. Chad Graff, Courtney Cronin. Like a lot of people coming up this week will be really cool. So, man, I'm going to need another Diet Dr. Pepper.

This is too long. This is a twofer Diet Dr. Pepper show. Thanks, everybody. We'll catch you next time.