Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Vikings 49ers matchups and PFF's Brad Spielberger discusses a Kirk Cousins extension

Episode Date: November 27, 2021

Matthew Coller opens the show with the "Opening Drive" talking about how the Minnesota Vikings' standard should not change because they have had adversity. Their offense has been healthy and Kirk Cousins is playing well, go win. Then he talks about matchups to watch between the 49ers and Vikings and gets together with Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus to talk about how the Vikings may have to consider a Kirk Cousins extension and whether Danielle Hunter should be given an extension with his recent injury issues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar with you here as always. And coming up a little later on the show, Pro Football Focus' Brad Spielberger. We've got a lot to discuss. Some of you had questions about a potential Kirk Cousins extension. That conversation is popping up again. So Brad Spielberger will address what that might look like

if he continues to play the way that he's playing now. Also, Daniil Hunter and his injury and how that might impact his future with the Vikings. So a lot to talk about with Brad Spielberger, the cap expert from Pro Football Focus. But I wanted to start the show with, instead of the final drive that we do, where I give five two-minute takes, I'm going to do an opening drive because there's a lot to get to here with Vikings 49ers and some other things going on in the NFL. So let's talk about that first and then we'll get to our interview. Okay, just going to jump right into it here. First opinion for the opening drive. The standard for the Vikings season should not change because of what has gone on within the last couple of weeks

with the Delvin Cook distraction, what happened with Everson Griffin, what happened with Delvin Tomlinson being out with COVID. It should not change your Vikings expectations from where we started at the beginning of the year. Lots of other teams have had problems, including the San Francisco 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo was hurt earlier this year. They lost some games because of it. The Saints, look at their game against Buffalo. They had no one, no Elvin Kamara, no Michael Thomas, no Jameis Winston. Everybody was decimated. Dak Prescott, he got hurt for a couple of weeks and has not really been the same until the Raiders game. And even then was not

perfect in that game. The Green Bay Packers, when the Vikings played them, they were without Jair Alexander, David Bakhtiari, Zedaria Smith. Those are three of the best players in the entire NFL that they did not have. The Vikings offense is pretty much 100% healthy and has been for the entire season. Jefferson, Thielen, Delvin Cook has been healthy for the majority of the year. KJ Osborne has emerged. There have been no offensive line injuries at all.

And the quarterback being the main part here has been healthy 100% of the time. Go win, make the playoffs. That's where the bar was set. It should not change. There should not be any free passes handed out because of adversity that they've gone through. In any NFL season, you have to overcome it. I know that recently it's been a lot and there have been a lot of heavy things on this team, starting with training camp, with the COVID issue with Cousins and Jeff Gladney being released and so forth. And on down the line, there has been a lot that's happened here.

But when you have your offense 100% healthy and you are still a good football team, we should still be saying, make the playoffs, be good in the playoffs, because this team is capable of that with its offense. Okay. Thanksgiving. I'm sure all of you guys watch Thanksgiving football just like me. And here's what I want to say. Refereeing in the NFL is very hard. Very, very, very hard. How do you decide when you're going to call holding, when you're going to call roughing the passer? All of these things are just left up to those guys to look at and decide in the fastest of fast time. If you've ever stood on the sideline for a practice or been close to

the football field for NFL game, you know how crazy fast this league is and how tough that must be to referee it. But there were 28 penalties between Dallas and the Raiders. Come on! The pass interference at the end, I can't figure out exactly why they called it. I know that maybe they should have had a different defensive strategy on that play, so it wasn't man-to-man coverage. But the cornerback just did nothing,

and the wide receiver on an underthrown pass tries to jump around him they throw a flag and it ends up costing Dallas the game there were holding penalties all over the place almost every single play seemed to have a penalty and this year they've emphasized the holding penalties more and I saw Kevin Seifert tweeting out the numbers that the holding calls this year have increased by like 200. Why does the NFL play games with its rules? The taunting is another part of it. I mean, Stefan Diggs caught a touchdown and punted the ball into the stands. That's not taunting, but if he had caught a ball and signaled first down anywhere near a defender, then that would have been taunting.

It doesn't make sense. Now, taunting was not a huge deal on Thanksgiving day, but the holding penalties were all over the place. And I wish we had a clearer understanding so we could even watch it and just know what holding is. And last year, it seemed like the NFL went out of its way to intentionally not call holding, which might've like the NFL went out of its way to intentionally not call holding, which might've increased the offense a little, maybe trying to get some more entertaining games. I don't know. But every year we seem to not know what these penalties are. And it is very frustrating to watch. And at one point between Dallas and Vegas, I just wanted to cry every play. Penalty, penalty, penalty, penalty. You have to figure this out, NFL. It's been a problem for so long. Okay, on our opening drive, next opinion.

I do not understand Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers. This week, he was candid in an answer about Jimmy Garoppolo. He said, I think we made it pretty clear that Trey Lance is our future. Why would he answer that question in a week leading up to the team's biggest game? San Francisco's playoff odds are just as different with a win and a loss than the Vikings are. Now, the Vikings are a little better because if the Vikings win this one, their playoff odds go to like 80% and it's under 50% if they lose, it's more like 60, 40 for San Francisco, but that is still a huge jump for San Francisco. If they lose this game against the Vikings, they are now

fighting tooth and nail to get one of those final playoff spots with a bunch of other teams at five and seven. And you're going to say in the media that your quarterback is not your future when, especially when Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing extremely well. Now, Jimmy, I'm sure is aware, and this is not heartbreaking to him, but I just Googled Kyle Shanahan. Every single story that popped up is he says, Jimmy's not the future. He says, Jimmy's not the future. I don't understand why Kyle Shanahan would do this. And maybe this is the difference between why Kyle Shanahan is a good coach and not a great coach. I don't know. But I couldn't make quite sense of it. Your quarterback has a hundred quarterback rating and he's just put up 30 points in back-to-back weeks

and you troll him with, Hey buddy, you're not the future. It's Trey Lance. I mean, I don't think you want your head coach creating that kind of distraction during the week. And again, I'm sure that Jimmy Garoppolo is a grownup, but I think if this was the Vikings that you would have heard a complete deflection on that question. Hey, uh, you know, is, can Jimmy Garoppolo play his way into the future? Look, we're focused on the bike. I mean, that's why they do these. That's why I say these things. So they don't create any sort of distraction or you're not getting into the head of your quarterback before he plays a huge game against the Vikings. That was just very odd to me that he would say something like that.

Next on the opening drive, we're getting to the point of scoreboard watching. So if you're wondering what to scoreboard watch, the Panthers and Eagles both have very winnable matchups. Carolina's playing Miami and Philly is taking on the lowly New York Giants. You could even call them woe-be-gone, the New York Giants. Very sad franchise at this moment. I don't have the Panthers as a team that's going to magically turn it around because of Cam Newton. I think that they are a very flawed team with a head coach and an offensive coordinator that aren't really giving them any extra at all, right? That's maybe the most polite way I can do it. It's the holiday. So I'll just be polite about that with Carolina's coaching staff.

Cam Newton looked okay against Washington and they kind of blew that game in other ways, but he still threw for under 200 yards. It's really difficult. Even if you had played for a team before to come into a completely new offense and then just step right in and play well most of the time you're kind of just game managing the best you can so i don't think that cam newton's going to make a difference however the panthers because they're playing a very poor miami team have a chance to hang in this race and still be around the vikings obviously have the tiebreaker against them though. Philadelphia is the team to watch. Jalen Hurts is improving. I saw Greg Cosell talking about how Philadelphia

has figured out how to use Jalen Hurts running as a major part of their offense. And they look like a team to watch because they have a really good offensive line. They are more healthy than some other teams and they could hang in this thing. And that's a team that the Vikings are going to be battling tooth and nail with. The Saints, however, are done in this conversation. Trevor Simeon. Now, I don't know what contract negotiations would have been like with Cam Newton for the Saints, but he could have kept their team in this race. I think Trevor Simeon, unfortunately, without star players, without his right tackle, without his running back, without top wide receiver. Yeah, sorry, Trevor Simeon's not going to keep you in it.

So the Saints are kind of out. And it looks like, more or less, it's the Vikings, Philly, and San Francisco, the teams that we're going to be watching down the stretch, unless somebody gets crazy hot and surprises us. All right, last one for the opening drive rather than the final drive, and then we'll get to Brad Spielberger from PFF. Since we've been all over the place this week, and I feel like we've been trying to catch our breath here the last couple of days, here's a couple matchups in this football game that I'm really, really interested in. First one, Debo Samuel against Eric Hendricks and Harrison Smith. The Vikings will not be putting a single

cornerback on Debo Samuel. They will be using Eric Hendricks and Harrison Smith to keep eyes on him at all times because he is one of the most exciting and explosive players in the NFL. He averages 18 yards a catch. He's run for over 100 yards this season, and he leads the league in yards after catch. That means that when he's in the backfield, Eric Hendricks and Harrison Smith are going to have to be aware of him, that they can use him in many different ways. And when he's matched up one-on-one with the Vikings corner,

will it be Patrick Peterson following him around? Will it be Brashad Breeland that they try to match him up against? Will they use him in the slot against Mackenzie Alexander, who's had kind of a tough season? Debo Samuel just kind of versus everybody. But Kendricks and Harrison Smith, I think, are going to be very much responsible for keeping eyes on him. Nick Bosa against whom is a good question. Christian Derrissaw or Brian O'Neill.

Now, if you look at Nick Bosa's usage this year, he's split where he's lined up. Against whom is a good question. Christian Derrissaw or Brian O'Neill. Now, if you look at Nick Bosa's usage this year, he's split where he's lined up. But usually if it's on the left side or the right side to start the game, that's where he stays. So is San Francisco going to use him to rush over the rookie, Christian Derrissaw, or will they use him to rush over his more natural right side or right side of the offense over Brian O'Neill? Either way, Nick Bosa, one of the most dangerous players in the NFL. The Vikings have managed against some pass rushers this year, but the guy who they faced that was on his level went against Rashad Hill earlier this year.

That was Miles Garrett, and Miles Garrett blew up the Vikings' entire offensive game plan. Nick Bosa versus the Vikings' offensive line is one to watch. All right, last one. Kirk Cousins versus the 49ers' possession offense. What I mean is, how many times will Kirk Cousins actually touch this football, and how many opportunities will the Vikings' offense get? And this is a reason to be extra aggressive.

When it's third down and 10 you have to throw 11 yards down the field at least you can't be punting away to san francisco because they will dominate the time of possession against you they run the ball extremely well they throw short passes really well and they will have these long extended drives. If you watch them play against the Los Angeles Rams, the Rams could never get in an offensive rhythm because San Francisco had the ball the entire time. It reminds me a lot really of how the Ravens played against the Vikings in the second half of that game, where they were able to just wear down a defensive line that was beat up. And they just kept running for first down after first down.

They would throw a short pass. They'd get, you know, somebody misses a tackle and you get a first down. And I think what, didn't they have like a 10 minute drive mix in their Baltimore? You could see that type of thing for San Francisco. And what that means is that, you know, the defense kind of has to hang on for dear life, but it really means your offense might only get a few shots. And so as we talk about all the aggressiveness, the downfield passing, where I think of aggressiveness, part of it for me is when you get to third down and long, do you go past the sticks? It's something the Vikings have not done very often this year, and they need to do in this game. You need to convert these third downs and you need to be aggressive because you can't really play this sort of old school type of game against San Francisco,

where you're trying to get field position and everything else. Cause even if you pin them back with a punt, they're going to take it all the way down the field slowly. And that's a strategy that I think can work against the beat up Vikings defensive line. So that will be very interesting to see how many opportunities Cousins gets with the football and how aggressive he is and whether he could take advantage of those opportunities and maybe even respond with some long drives as well. I know that's not necessarily like a model for long-term success is these long drives, but in a situation such as this, it might be very necessary. Okay. So there you go. There's the opening drive. And now let's get to Brad Spielberger.

I wanted to quickly say happy Thanksgiving to everyone and also self-promote just a little since I'm recording this on Black Friday. If you have not read my book, Making of a Miracle, the stories behind the Vikings improbable 2017 season, I tweeted out the link. It's on Amazon. You can go find it, but it's on my Twitter at Matthew Collar. Again, that's making of a miracle.

There's also a hockey book named that. I didn't write that one, but the stories behind the Vikings improbable 2017 season. So check that out. If you want a gift for somebody for Christmas, feel free to go check that out. Again, it's on my Twitter is the link, or you can just go to Amazon. So thanks for that. And appreciate all of you for listening and taking the time during the holiday to listen as well. So thanks for that. And on to Brad Spielberger. Folks, have you ever thought about taking a bike to work, but figure it's too far or that the hills are too steep or heck who wants to show up to work covered in sweat? Well, that's why you need

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Is that right? Thank you. Yes, that is what that means. It really just means I get to put a fancy word at the end of my title. But I appreciate it. And thank you for having me on before I was an Esquire. Just a young, learned lawyer. Okay. Well well congratulations on that

though that is that is huge for you uh you are the uh pro football focus cap analyst if people don't know and you do a tremendous tremendous job with it and so there's a lot of things that are kind of floating in the air that we have not caught up on recently with vikings cap situation and contracts and everything else. But the most pressing, I'm just going to start off right with this, is that Kirk Cousins is playing his way into another extension. And I can't say that we shouldn't have seen it coming, right? That he was going to contract year, put up big statistics and put himself in a position to make this decision very hard.

I think that the way he had played even the last two years, we would have said the same thing, that he played well enough to be considered for a contract extension as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. But existing in this strange place of your Ryan Tannehills and Derek Carrs and other quarterbacks like that that are really good, but you wonder if you can pay them and still have a team that's above 500. Right now they're sitting at 500,

but the way he's played recently is I think the best he's played as a Minnesota Viking. So I'll just ask you this straight out. If the Vikings started negotiations today with the God agents that Kirk Cousins has, what would said God agents be asking for in your opinion? Yeah. So that is the important point is whatever you think about Kirk Cousins, he has navigated the business of football, arguably as well as anyone in the history of the sport. And yeah, for him to bet on himself again, and even with, you know, a tough

schedule and a lot of turnover on this roster and all that to still bet on himself and have a very good year, you know, he's looking at that. He's not going to top the market. He's not going to go for the, I don't think we'll top 40 million per year, but I think he'd come very close. You know, I think at this point he will keep the shorter term and that's going to limit the year, the total value and the per year value. He'll continue to go with that almost entirely guaranteed. And I could see something in the range of, you know, 37, $38 million per year, which he's worth. I mean, look, you see guys like Teddy Bridgewater play five games in new Orleans signed for 20 mil a year. You see Sam Darnold fetch a second, fourth and sixth round pick. I mean, he is an above

average NFL quarterback and he will be compensated as such. How much does it change things that we're expecting the salary cap to go up? Not next year necessarily, but two years from now from a negotiation standpoint as the agents, but also as the teams when they're factoring in these big contracts, because the big deal about cousins is always, is he good enough to justify the contract? And I mean, just the reality is there's only a few guys who have ever been that way. We just saw one Aaron Rogers, but even Russell Wilson's team has fallen apart. And we've seen other quarterbacks who are really good struggle once they have that contract signed. But I feel like this is a different factor than we've ever had to work in is that not next year, but probably the year after you're talking about TV deals kicking in and the salary cap going way up and possibly this becomes more manageable.

I don't know. No, 100%. And that's probably why, frankly, the Vikings tried to get an extension done this past offseason, because every team is going to be negotiating in a different landscape. We're going to get the 2022 salary cap. It's going to jump compared to where it was this year, obviously, but in reality, probably be a similar growth pattern to what it would have been pre-COVID around $205 million or so is the expectation. 2023, it could jump to $235, $240 million. And that is where on Kirk's side, that's why they're going to try to go short deal again, because they might think, all right, there's going to be one final extension when I'm

34 years old, which I think was what Alex Smith was in Washington when he got his final big deal. But yeah, you're operating in a different landscape. And if you're a quarterback, you're sitting there saying a guy might get paid $50 million per year starting in 2023, 2024. So it could jump. He could jump into that $40 million per year range. I do think what Minnesota will say is, look, we will give you top-of-the-line money for this current market. We're not going to buy into you should pay us based on a huge salary cap jump.

And I think they will kind of stare each other down and play hardball if that's what it comes to. Now, I have to follow up on this. You said that they were interested in extending him this last offseason. Is that words that have floated through the air and into your ears or something you just suspect? I remember there were quotes about Kirk saying he was not interested in talking extension and he just wanted to play, which led me to believe that it was probably offered

or some conversations were had. Yeah, sorry, I'm not breaking any big any big news okay i just had i just i just had to check because i i was kind of under the impression based on the fact that they drafted a developmental quarterback who yikes but they did make that move with the thought on draft night that he could develop and possibly be their next quarterback and of course they said no no he's just a backup and everything else but look how mobile he is am i right you know so there were lots of kind of subtle little jabs at kirk uh in that situation i think that from an ownership perspective they are tired of paying a lot of money for not getting a lot of wins.

I mean, this is the QB wins thing. We talk about this all the time and how statistically analyzing quarterback is different from an ownership looking at how much they paid versus what they got out of it. And I don't know if when the cap goes up, this formula entirely changes. But when you look at the landscape of this vikings roster it feels like wow you've got justin jefferson and you can do anything uh you know kg could say anything is possible and the sky's the limit but really when you look at the defensive side of this they have

not been good this year and it's hard when you look at the contracts they signed to imagine that they suddenly flip this switch if they still have a large contract with Kirk Cousins because they're going to have to do the same thing. It's not like there's a bunch of up-and-coming players who are next man up. They're going to have to sign a bunch of guys again because everyone's on a one-year contract. 100%. And Mike Zimmer is never going to have a bad defense because they were unwilling to spend resources on said defense. I would say, you know, I think the Kellen Mond thing is probably geared towards a thought like this, where if you're going to spend big on quarterback, and I think Jalen Hurts

is obviously your ideal outcome of this scenario, but you basically get a cheap backup and they might know, look, Kellen Mond is not a starting caliber quarterback in this league. We don't even think he is, but he's very talented, very gifted athletically. And if you figure some things out, he could be a high-end backup on a super cheap deal. And like I said, the ideal outcome is Jalen Hurts, where he looks like a serviceable quarterback. He's probably never going to be a top 10 guy, but a guy you can win with, right? So at the worst case scenario, you save money there, which you shouldn't underrate. I mean, Kevin Stefanski is paying Case Keenum about $6 million a year. It's not a cheap position in every team.

So that is going to be the challenge, though. I mean, Patrick Peterson, obviously on the way out, all the guys they spent on, Brashad Breeland, all these guys are probably not going to be there again. So you're once again going to have to spend. And Daniil Hunter, of course, who we'll get to is a difficult decision as well. So it is going to be tough because this defense needs to at least be above average for all this to work. And yes, that sounds like protecting Kirk, but frankly, that's the case for a lot of

quarterbacks, but you know, end of the day, Mike's like we said, Mike Zimmer is going to make sure this defense is, is as good as it can be. You know, at least, you know, he's going to spend to try. Okay. Let me ask you, cause I want to circle back on that, but then this just popped into my head that we've had this debate kind of ongoing about whether other teams would be interested in trading for Kirk cousins at the end of the year.

And this is only a scenario in which they go seven and 10, the wheels come off. Like, I don't see this happening, but it's still remains possible that they could go eight nine seven ten miss the playoffs and then we look up and go well you know another good year of a good pff graded good stats but your team could not get where you wanted to go then maybe they consider this other direction what would be your sense about what a trade would look like and whether other teams would be interested in taking cousins because i have been strongly in the camp that there would be five six teams that

line up to give you a bunch of draft picks i mean deshaun watson's better than kirk cousins but people are offering three firsts for a guy who's under investigation from the fbi like this is i mean wentz is winning games right now for Indianapolis, but look what he did last year. And teams are just like, give him to me. He did something one time. So I don't know. Tell me what you think of that. No, I completely agree with you.

And I know every fan listening is probably going to be like, all right, make this trade as soon as possible. But I think, look, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New Orleans Saints will offer a first round pick for Kirk Cousins after the season. 110%. I'm confident in saying that. And there probably are some other teams that would also, you know, kind of sniff around and see what's available. And arguably, if you look at the Steelers team, if they had Kirk Cousins this year, they're probably one of the better teams in football. And I know it's crazy to say that, but Big Ben is awful. And they are a great team still.

They're also young and getting better at a lot of spots. And they actually have some money they can spend next year. It's kind of this was their tough year. So, yeah, I think there would be a strong several offers on the table. What will be interesting to see is will Russell Wilson, will Aaron Rodgers kind of take up those spots? But you mentioned Carson Wentz. Sam Darnold still got traded for.

Teddy Bridgewater got traded for the 10th time. Teams are not patient. They want to make these moves. Hey, even Carolina, if Carolina doesn't win the Sean Watson sweepstakes, they might trade for Kirk Cousins. There are definitely teams that will explore it. And I think a first round pick at minimum will be offered. I mean, this is such a hard spot for the Vikings because if you go four years and make the

playoffs one time, then you can't look at this and say, this model works for us. You just can't. There's no objective way to say that. At the same time, you're like, man, if they train him to Pittsburgh, he's going to go to the freaking Super Bowl. I mean, they are a great defense and they're the one team that seems to maintain

that year after year because they have a great coach and they have receivers to give them. They have a great young running back to give them. They can restock the offensive line through the draft. I mean, they are in a great position. And the same thing if you give them to Sean Payton, like, wait a minute, you don't want to do that because then, you know, he's facing you in the playoffs and beating you or something. So I think this is a really tricky situation to be in because even if they finish the season

strongly, you're probably still looking at something like nine and eight, which overall is pretty underwhelming, but the quarterback will have played really well. So I think it's one of the most difficult decisions in all of sports. So let's, let me ask you though, this, this question to circle back on what we were talking about before signing Patrick Peterson, signing Delvin Tomlinson, who has not been really an impact player for them. Signing Bashad Breland up and down there, but not great. These one-year contracts for guys, Sheldon Richardson was noticed for the first time the other day against the Packers and we're in week 11. Should we look at this approach? And they still are 20th, I think, in defensive EPA as we sit right now. Should we look at this approach? And they still are 20th, I think, in defensive EPA as we sit right now.

Should we look at this approach that they took last offseason and say, probably should have put that into a guard or two. It probably should have put that into restocking the offensive line because you still have weaknesses there, as opposed to let's spread out seven different small contracts on the defensive side, which I was kind of for. Let's spread out seven different, you know, small contracts on the defensive side, which I was kind of for. I mean, I thought, look, if you don't, I wasn't for necessarily Peterson and spending that much on one guy, but Hey, you know, sign a bunch of guys at the last minute while they're kind of hanging around.

That's when you get good deals and try to just patch this thing together because you're in a position to compete. But with hindsight, should we look at that and say, maybe that approach wasn't really wise. You know, this might surprise you. I honestly think I would still be okay with it. I think what you're doing really is you're betting on variants. And I think teams,

especially the Minnesota Vikings understand this. I mean, look at like, like if they signed Casey Hayward instead of Patrick Peterson, we could be sitting here talking about how it was genius. And they, they got this cheap corner who had been good for a long time, but kind of, you know, stumbled last year and then they get him and he has a great season. Same with Bashad Breeland.

The Tomlinson move is just redundant with Michael Pierce. And I don't think you can defend that, but, but yeah, I think they took a gamble and it can go either way. And I think the reason why I would still defend it is because they also could have gone out and given like Ronald Darby three years, 30 million, like Denver did or done some other moves that would impact them beyond 2021. Whereas now, yes, like you said, they have to sign it, but they still have to make a bunch of decisions and do a bunch of things, but they're not strapped to these guys that were not good or hurt or old or whatever the case may be. So I'll actually say I'm fine with it. And the defense has underperformed. There's no doubt about that.

But as you know all too well, I mean, some of these close games, they could be 10-0, they could be 0-10. So it's hard for me to go back to visionists and say they should have spent the money differently. It seems like they knew Ezra Cleveland was a guard for life, so they kind of felt fine there and stuff like that. So, yeah, you know, I think we can nitpick a lot of things, and, you know, we love to nitpick.

But I actually would say, you know what, they they took a gamble they tried this approach of some patchwork on defense with not a lot of cap space they really didn't spend that much money um you know because they didn't really have much um and it just kind of didn't work out which is unfortunate but if it did work out you know we'd be saying they're geniuses so yeah and up until now they got a lot out of xavier woods who had a really tough game against now, they got a lot out of Xavier Woods, who had a really tough game against Green Bay. They got a lot out of Everson Griffin. But this is the nature of two million dollar players is that some weeks they're good and some weeks they're not. I actually I mean, I agree with you. I think that there is the hindsight. You know, this this one didn't work. That one didn't work. I kind of anticipated that half of them would work and half of them wouldn't, just didn't know which ones were going to be good and which ones weren't. I would have thought that Sheldon Richardson would have been way better.

I think I gave that signing A plus, just phenomenal job and it hasn't worked out. But I think that that approach was right because without doing it, the defense is an atrocity. There's just nothing there. And that kind of speaks to the drafting in a lot of ways that they have not drafted and developed players who are ready to step in and take these jobs. And so you had to do that. The only thing I would say was a first guess kind of question was

when you move a sixth round tackle, who's never played before to guard, he's probably going to commit a lot of holding penalties. I just, that was a really tough one to see and to bring in zero veterans outside of Mason Cole, who could play that position. I think that was a mistake and maybe some money that they spent on a nose guard that could have been spent elsewhere. Not just a nose guard, a nose guard, changing positions to three tech, by the way. Right. Yeah. Anyway, let's that they love doing that. Let's get to Daniil Hunter though. Speaking of hard decisions, I think this one's really tough. You're talking about a guy who's barely played football let's that they love doing that let's get to daniel hunter though speaking of hard decisions i think this one's really tough you're talking about a guy who's barely played football now

for two years but when he was playing football he was unbelievable again even one of the best defensive players in the league and he has kind of a bad luck thing how does that impact their future like where does that contract stand as of right now? And how does it impact how they're going to negotiate it going forward? It's interesting because there is not a super strong edge rusher market. I mean, the top guys are older players. It's Chandler Jones. You know, it's guys like that that are still productive, but you're probably not giving top dollar to.

Hunter is really the only guy that I think in the entire class, I mean, some people are kind of high on Harold Landry now out of Tennessee. I'm not a huge fan myself, but he's the only guy that could push and stress to get one of those true legitimate deals. But if you look at last off season, I mean, Matthew Judon coming off a franchise tag, gets a very mediocre deal, signs for about 13 and a half million per year. He's obviously killing it now, looking great. Yannick Ngakwe, same thing, down year, partly in Minnesota, but two years, 22 million. Now he's having a really good year.

I just think at both that spot and wide receiver, the markets are just not trending in the direction that the Neil Hunter would want. And if I'm Minnesota, I recognize that without him, my defense falls off an absolute cliff. And he is, like you said, when he was healthy, he looked like the Neil Hunter, but I don't know if I have the 20 million plus per year conversation with him. And I know that for his perspective, he would say, why wouldn't I have that conversation? I'm

still young. I'm still good. The injuries, you know, I can get over that and whatever, but I just would say for me, it's more about the market as opposed to the individual player to where i would say i think i could spend 20 million per year on three or four guys that might be able to make as much or more of an impact on just the neil hunter and it's tough because i mean i would also understand him saying i'm not listening to an offer below 20 million per year because that's the caliber of player i am but it's i. It might be the toughest decision of the offseason, frankly. Sam Ekstrom here, wondering if you're stuck on your company's injury report. In an unfortunate situation like that, it's good to have someone in your corner. That's where Kemet, Sanford, and Kramer Law can help you understand your rights

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You get paid, then they get paid. It's that simple. The website is yourminnesotaworkcomployer.com, where you can find a phone number to get a free consultation. This is an attorney advertisement from Kemet, Sanford, and Kramer, yourminnesotaworkcomplawyer.com. I mean, neck and torn pec are not things that you like go, Oh, it just bounced back. Like it's not an ACL where a doctor gets in there, ties that thing back together and you run back out there. I mean, these are injuries that you worry about long-term. He bounced back for a year with the neck, but that doesn't mean it's going to be good for the long-term and NFL players get old fast. We've been saying, Oh man, Daniel Hunter, my baby is older than him but like now he's already

getting in that later 20s and he's played in the nfl for a long time kind of reminds me of mario williams a little bit where when the bills signed him to that huge contract it was like oh man he's still in his prime it's great and it's like but is he because the guy's been playing football since he was 20 years old so he's got a lot of miles on that body. So now can you explain kind of where it stands? They can't really just let him play on the next, on the deal that they've signed now, right? They set this thing up. So you have to either move on from Daniil Hunter

or you have to sign him to an extension, right? They effectively created an ultimatum in the deal where they have to do something. I mean, in theory they could. So what they did is they put a massive roster bonus that, you know, sets in early in the off season. That kind of is a trigger date to where they're either going to have to cut him or extend him. Um, you know, before that kicks in, they could, I guess, in theory, let it vest and restructure it and push it down the line or something like that. Um, you know, if they wanted to, but then at that

point, you're basically giving a guy like a signing bonus to play for a season. And it's just, they probably wouldn't be the smartest approach. But yeah, so it effectively is an ultimatum. The injury probably does change things to where maybe you could convince him to not take a one-year flyer, but just to do something differently that again, leaves the door open for, Hey, prove to us that you can be healthy and good for a full season. And then we still think you're young enough that we can give you the four-year, whatever, $85 million deal that you want. It's tough, though. It's really tough. I mean, from his perspective, he's at a point where he needs that big payday, right? As you said, your career hits you fast. And you get those Mario Williams deal. You get even Adamic and Sue, like you've got to get those deals because you don't know

when the wheels are going to fall off, you know, for Sue, they didn't. Um, but yeah, so it's a fascinating situation and I still, I would probably lean towards they get something done, but if Hunter is more realistic about where the market is at and he might not be. Yeah. I mean, he, and I think that in a way he has a case to not be because he's been realistic so much with them that I think a lot of people look at these contracts he signed, even this last one and go like, dude, man, what is your agent? Like, okay. Uh, where, why is this, uh, not getting you more money? Like it has the top pass rushers. And I think at some point you hear that noise and get frustrated by being underpaid and then put your foot down.

We thought it was going to be this last off season, but he was maybe not in a position having just come back from that injury. This one, I think he could say, look, I came back from the last one, sack the hell out of them quarterbacks. So, but you know, the Vikings, what do you make of this? They have to be the most loyal team there is. I mean, like everybody who wears purple, you're wearing green right now as we talk to you, if you're wearing purple,

Rick Spielman would have showed up at your house and offered you a five-year contract. I mean, everybody gets a deal from the Vikings who plays even decently that's drafted by them and they pay top of market. Harrison Smith has not had a great year top of market for whatever reason I'm not sure because no one was competing against them Brian O'Neill worth it but top of market that makes me think they'll do this because they always do this so I'm glad you brought up Harrison Smith because now that I think about yeah I mean if you're daniel hunter and you sit there and see hundreds harrison smith get top safety money entering is

what age 32 season you're not you're not taking a discount in any way shape or form so i go back you delete everything i just said the last couple minutes because you know like if you see that you say okay my floor is 16 million per year which we're used to edge rusher that not being a big of a number but it kind of is this past offseason you, Bud Dupree, Leonard Floyd were the top of the market at 16.5 and 16. So if he goes for it, he wants 18 as a floor. It's still barely above Harrison Smith. Yeah, I think the thing there is, which could work in Minnesota's favor, is they've shown they like to, and I'll go into a little bit of a theory here

that might be me just rationalizing Rick Spielman because I'm a fan, but they let the market play out. They let everyone else pay their guy in that offseason. And then they pay their guy. Right. So, you know, Dalvin Cook was the last of all those running backs to get signed. He did get the most by a tiny bit, but, you know, he's the last guy. Then with Harrison Smith, you let all the safeties play out.

You let Jamal Adams get his money. Then Harrison Smith comes in. Brian O'Neill particularly was a perfect example where every right tackle, I mean, Ramchick, Moten, Braden Smith, and then Brian, and he got the most. And most people would tell you he's probably the worst of those guys. Still a very good player, but not as good as those other guys. And so how it could work in their favor is they could say, look, Daniel, sit back, let all the edge rushers sign for their money.

And like I said, I do not think it's a strong market he might see chandler jones get like a two-year 30 million dollar deal he might see you know harold landry get the trey hendrickson deal four years 60 million something like that all those deals may come in and he'll say look they'll say look if you still want 22 million per year no one's giving you that and and they're showing you that the market has told you that um the trouble is the trigger date the trouble is the ultimat and they're showing you that the market has told you that um the trouble is the trigger date the trouble the trouble is the ultimatum they've said but that actually could work in their favor and i'll say my quick theory just because i want to say it i think it

could be smart where they've dealt with some players that have gotten a little bit upset about their contracts after they sign it namely daniel hunter and stefan diggs yeah if you let your guy be the highest paid on that off season, knowing the market's going to take off afterwards anyway, it might actually be pretty smart because Brian O'Neill, let's say he makes an all pro next year. He tries to come back to the table and wants re-up. They say, Brian, we gave you the biggest deal of the entire off season at right tackle.

Get out of here. And I think there's weight to that and credit to that. Yeah. No, that's a good point. This one, just the injury factor is so difficult for all of this. If we were not talking about an injury and Daniil Hunter was just himself right now and had 12 sacks, it would be the most obvious thing. Just, okay, they'll sign him, but here's how they're going to do it.

Instead, it's do you want to do this when he might never be the same? He might never play an entire season again but of course there's always that Vikings fear that you don't sign him he gets 15 sacks for the Saints or something uh you know and then that's always going through Vikings fans minds one last thing for you um I wanted to ask you your thoughts because we haven't really discussed this on the show about what the Rams have done. I have not been a believer in the Rams really from day one of trading a lot to get Matt Stafford, who's sort of Stafford in the last couple of weeks. And then you go all in, you get Odell Beckham, you're trading for Vaughn Miller,

like older players trying to tack on these guys. I mean, it worked for the San Francisco 49ers with Charles Haley and stuff. Wait, this is maybe even before your time. Back in the day, like just the Cowboys and the 49ers, it was like an arms race of let's grab every player. The Packers got into this too, where it's like Andre Rison and whatever, Reggie White, like older guys.

I don't think that this works for them. And now losing Robert Woods, he was so integral to what they're doing. This is why you don't do it is because something could just go wrong for you. And then it's over and all your draft picks are gone. And I feel like that's the risk they took and already it kind of hit them in the face. And Odell Beckham is not Robert Woods, by the way he's not and i think thing too is people might say that we're kind of like you know capitalizing on the moment but the injuries they should have expected because they actually were the healthiest team in football the last

four or five years we have this thing called war adjusted injuries lost where we take based on the position and how good the player is and even you know you know factor that in as well and they were like off the chart in terms of not losing their good players for games so all these injuries mounting up it was due it was bound to happen eventually so no it's not a sustainable approach i will say as viking fans are also aware less need the gm with the rams actually trades back as much as rick spielman does so that is how they're able to sustain it they also have been hitting a little bit better on those late round picks of late, but, but they've actually made the fifth most draft picks in the NFL since 2017 without having a first round pick. So it is not a

sustainable strategy unless you do other things to work around it. And frankly, just get lucky on some of these picks. They've done well with compensatory picks and all those things as well. But no, like you said, look, here's my thing. I'm never going to say it's like Super Bowl or bust is an unfair thing to say on anyone. But they even tweeted from their own account that they're all in and that the rounders clip, the guy dropping the chips, he lost his – he lost a hand. So I guess they didn't know that. They didn't watch the movie. But yeah, I mean like if they don't win the Super Bowl the next two seasons, I mean Aaron Donald will be done after the next two seasons. He's going to be 33 years old I think I mean Stafford what are you gonna make Stafford

one of the highest paid quarterbacks in football and then try to build around that it's tough man it's tough yeah I get it because it's exciting for the fans and you feel like we've got a team that can actually do it so you go crazy but then one thing goes wrong and you're just out. And I don't know. I mean, it feels like the Vikings kind of did this a few times themselves, even with trading for like Sam Bradford, a move that I thought made sense at the time, but it was still was, well, if this doesn't work out with Bradford, then what? And you know, he gets, he gets hurt the next year. They had a strong enough roster to still go to the NFC championship, but then they didn't have a first round draft pick. And now you look at their first round draft picks and go, wow,

Justin Jefferson and a lot of nothing from their first round picks. So I guess that's maybe part of the theory too, is that sometimes first round picks bust when you're good. So anyway, well, Brad, this has been phenomenal. Love following your work. You bring a level of insight to things that I don't fully understand that really helps out. And I greatly appreciate that. Follow at PFFBrad on Twitter.

And thanks again. Great to get together with you, man. Thank you.