Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Vikings choose to practice plus PFF's Ian Hartitz talks Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen projections

Episode Date: August 28, 2020

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Hey everybody, Matthew Collar here. Before we get into the show today with Ian Hardit of BFF's Fantasy Podcast, I wanted to give you an update on camp from Thursday. The Vikings decided to practice while a number of other teams around the league elected not to hold the practice to show solidarity with the NBA, WNBA, MLB teams Mike Zimmer explained the team's decision to practice. We talked about it. There really wasn't much discussion about not practicing. I mean, there was a lot of different things discussed, but that really wasn't, you know, we're trying, the thing that came out of it is, you know, we want to make change and us missing practice one day is a 24-hour shock value.

And we feel like we can do more things with our football team and with their voices as we continue to move forward. You know, I've been proud of our social justice group for the last, I don't know, three or four years that we've had them. They've done a great job and we expect them to continue to move forward. But it was more about how we can help with changing things and not just in Minnesota, but nationwide. I also had a chance to ask Zimmer on Zoom call after practice what he learned from this process over the last few months since George

Floyd's death and since he's become more involved in the team's social justice committee and their social justice efforts and he told a story about his longtime friend Andre Patterson who was also on the Zoom call and I think it's worth hearing. Well, I think the biggest thing is learning, for me, learning about some of the stories that these players have told, what's happened to them in the past, and especially where I haven't walked in their shoes. It's totally different for me,

and them really educating myself on some of these we had one player talk about um well i can talk you don't mind if i tell that story andre do you about you in the i don't okay so i andre um was i mean just things like this by being able to talk you know and, Andre, this is the first time I heard it. Andre told me he'd been pulled over three times and had guns pulled on him. And he wasn't doing anything. He wasn't speeding. His blinker wasn't wrong.

He wasn't changing lanes. They let him go each time. You know, that's not right. And so hearing some of these stories that, you know, I haven't been able to walk in Andre's shoes or some of the players, we had a player tell a story today, what happened to him, which is similar to what I'm talking about Andre. That kind of opens your eyes about, you know, some things that you don't know about because you haven't lived it. So I'm going to have a little more on this on a later podcast

with my friend Manny Hill, but it's notable that Zimmer has come quite a ways in terms of listening to the issues that are important to his players and staff. Whether they're important to you guys listening or not, I don't know, but from covering the team, it's fascinating to see his evolution on this topic. We've wondered at times in the past about Zimmer's relationship with players and how that might be impacted by issues like this, this topic. We've wondered at times in the past about Zimmer's relationship with players and how that might be impacted by issues like this, and it appears that he's handled it in a way that includes him evolving, and I think that that's very interesting, and it probably instills some

confidence coming from his players and staff maybe that wasn't there in past years. A couple of other notes, Daniel Hunter still wasn't practicing. If you've got that panic meter, you might want to flip it from yellow to orange on this one. We are getting really close to the start of the season, and to have Daniil Hunter still not practicing is concerning. Mike Zimmer was asked for an update, and guess what, everyone? He did not give one.

A few other things. We've talked about B.C. Johnson being the number two, and we'll discuss that situation with Ian Harditz. But my takeaway so far is that I would not be concerned with Justin Jefferson, the fact that he is not the number two wide receiver and that B.C. Johnson is at this moment. Jefferson has made consistent plays in practice, and he was one of their top standouts again on Thursday.

He's got the athleticism. He's clearly on a different level with some of his movement skills than the other wide receivers. This is not a Laquan Treadwell situation at all, just because he's been more of a slot guy so far. And he's had numerous days where he's looked like one of the better receivers out there. So just a quick don't panic about Justin Jefferson at all yet update there. Mike Hughes, by the way, continues to play outside corner and base and then slot when they go into their nickel package, which is definitely the way that I think it stays going into the season. But just a quick thought on that. It puts a ton of pressure on Mike Hughes to fully grasp both of

those positions. I know he's the most experienced, but he's not that experienced, and that will be interesting if he flips roles in the middle of games based on who's on the other side. That is quite the task for him to take on, and we will really find out this year about Mike Hughes, whether he was worth that first-round pick in 2018 or not. Seems like Dakota Dozier is gaining an edge on Avion Collins, or at very least he's taking more reps at left guard.

And I'm guessing that the Vikings will make that official decision once they close practices to the media next week, because that's generally how things get done in the NFL sometimes. So also, let me give you two names to watch. Miles Dorn and Jordan Fair. That's an undrafted safety and an undrafted linebacker, but they were both getting second team reps these last couple of days, and I think they both have a chance to make the team. A guy that I would be a little concerned about making the team from the draft

is James Lynch, who has stayed on the third team and the third team only and has not had a practice where he's been an impact player so far as I can tell when he's out there against the third team. So maybe that transition is not what they hoped so far for James Lynch. All right, well, we'll see. So let's get to Ian Harditz. Making his second appearance on the show, Ian Harditz, the fantasy genius at Pro Football Focus.

What is up, Ian? Appreciate you having me back on, man. Hell of an intro. But, yeah, ready to talk some Vikings and maybe some of their opponents. Who knows? You know, the last time I had you on, I think we started with Delvin Cook, and you were not nervous at all. You said, no, no big deal.

He'll get that contract signed. He'll be out there putting up fantasy points in no time. I still think that Dalvin is going to play even if he doesn't have a contract, but it's getting a little hairy here, Ian. Yeah, so, you know, I was feeling good when training camp started. Dalvin reports, no problem. But then, you know, when Adam Schefter says something, I listen. And, you know, Schefter was saying last week that, you know, if there is no contract resolution before the season starts, he wouldn't be, you know,

lining up to draft Dalvin on his fantasy team. So I think, you know, it's just, I've been talking a lot of fantasy strategy over these last few weeks. And, you know, in the first couple of rounds of your draft, like what you don't want to do is just screw your team over. I mean, that's why we're talking about not drafting Leonard Fournette in round three and stuff like that. And I don't think it's to the point where you should you know put Dalvin on the do not draft list or anything like that but you know in terms of this is a guy's been you know the pretty much the

consensus number five overall pick in fantasy the entire offseason so at this point you know with the tiebreaker I'm probably taking Clyde Edwards Hilaire over him but I still think Dalvin I mean he's gonna be a first round pick in he in all fancy drafts and he probably still should be I don't feel quite as confident as I did last time we talked but you know I still think as you said uh you know gun to my head I think he's out there week one getting his usual 20 plus touches he is getting to the point of being in a pretty tough spot though because if he sits out that could be bad for him, especially if Alexander Madison plays well. And then all of a sudden, there goes some of your leverage. Because you'll have to come back like Melvin Gordon did eventually

if they still don't pay you. So it doesn't always force their hand. Maybe if the Vikings start off 0-3 or something, it would. But other than that, if the offense goes well like it did with Austin Eckler, then all of a sudden you lose any leverage that you had remaining but if you play and you turn your ankle and you're out for four weeks there goes your money too so he's in a pretty tough spot but you know I still think that he's going to go out there and play even if Schefter said that I just get the sense that

Delvin even might not be on the same page as his agent with some of these things. Like there's a lot of pressure. He's a captain, and his teammates love him, and he said 1,000% he's going to play. So I think that he actually does get out there, contract or not. Yeah, and that's the thing. I mean, it's, you know, Delvin, I have never heard a negative thing about this dude. I love the way he plays. I love the way he runs.

I mean, you know, he's a great player and by all accounts a great guy. And you mentioned it, man. Like when he was about to go to training camp, it was just weird. It's weird things going on. Weird reports like the agent refuting things Dalvin had said and that he was going to show up. And, you know, his actions have said that he looks like a guy that will be out there week one ready to go, ready to support his teammates.

As you said, I'm hopeful that's the case. Like I said, not quite as confident as I maybe was a month ago, but still lining up to draft Dalvin, just maybe not at five as high as I was before. Okay, we'll get to the most interesting fantasy players and then other discussions that go along with it on the Vikings schedule in a minute. But I'm going to present you with some information you probably already know, and I want to get your reaction, which is that in Vikings camp, B.C. Johnson has been the number two wide receiver and not Justin Jefferson, and I don't think that that speaks to Justin Jefferson's talent because he looks the part. I think it speaks to how ready

a receiver can be as a rookie to start off and what his strengths were at LSU coming out of the slot. That appears to be what his role is going to be. The question is, how much will the Vikings use a slot receiver right away? So how, as a fantasy expert, are you dealing with the Justin Jefferson problem? Yeah, I believe Vikings were the single, you know, lowest rate of three wide receiver formations last year. And, you know, he'll go out there. And I think Jefferson and, you know, in general, Thielen's another one of these guys, Chris Goblin, where we kind of overrate like these slot receivers.

And just in terms of like, they can, if you're a baller, you can kill defensive backs outside, inside, doesn't necessarily matter. I do think even though Justin Jefferson was the primary slot guy at LSU, I mean, he has the tools and ability to be a very good outside receiver as well. But, yeah, man, you said it. I think this is why wide receivers in general, we don't see them perform at the same caliber as rookie running backs in particular.

I mean, since 2010, we've had 26 running backs finish as a RB2 or better, top 24 at their position. Wide receiver has only been 13, so literally half. And now we have this offseason with no preseason for these guys to really show what they can do in a game situation. Obviously, you know, training camp took forever to ramp up, to even get pads on. It's people being safe.

It is what it is. And, you know, it's kind of affecting guys like Justin Jefferson. So, you know, B.C. Johnson, I guess we do need to pay attention to these incumbent starters that, you know, might not be, you not be the first-round pedigree or something with someone like Justin Jefferson, but all the credit in the world to B.C. for doing his thing for last season. I know he wasn't the best receiver in the league or anything like that, but productive and was able to go out there and not kill the offense

by any means. So I haven't really expected much from Justin Jefferson this year. I thought him and Michael Pittman from the Colts could, if in a best-case scenario, maybe lead their team in receiving touchdowns. But he was going to need to do it on a, you know, low amount of targets and just be hyper-efficient with that. I think the main story, man, is as I've been preaching all offseason, Adam Thielen, get this dude wherever you can.

He's still being treated as like a wide receiver, kind of 13 to 15. I've had him six throughout the offseason. And, look, he's still being treated as like a wide receiver kind of 13 to 15 i've had him six throughout the offseason and look he's a talented guy people are worried about these injuries but look he came back balled out in the playoffs never missed a game before last season we know he's a great player and seriously like the target ceiling is 150 plus and you know in fantasy like we want to find situations where talent meets volume i think that's what we have here with Adam Thielen. Get back to the conversation in just a minute. But first, I have to tell you about something very cool from our friends at Soda Stick.

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sodastick.com that's s-o-t-a-s-t-i-c-k.com and use the promo code purple insider for free shipping no you're exactly right that you know bc johnson justin jefferson irv smith kyle rudolph delvin cook they're going to supplement everything around Adam Thielen. But, I mean, even when you go back to 2017 when he's sharing the targets with Stephon Diggs, or 2018 when he's sharing the targets, he's still getting, I don't know, 130, 140 targets. And even if this team doesn't pass quite as much as the 2018 team did, because they were playing behind in a lot of games maybe that'll be the case this year but they're going to him I mean I think that the offense is being

designed around him as your starting point and then everybody else I could see four or five guys having 25 catches 30 catches and then feeling with 75 plus yeah man I think everyone's getting they look at that Stephon Diggs, 94 targets, led the team number in 2019, and they just kind of assume that the wide receiver one of the Vikings isn't going to get that same workload. Gary Kubiak's wide receiver one has averaged 138 targets if you just go back throughout all the years that he's been coaching, and you know, yes, Diggs only had 94 targets last year, but I mean, he was PFF's number one receiver in receiving yards on passes thrown 20 plus yards downfield. I mean, he was PFF's number one receiver in receiving yards

on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. I mean, you know, we talk about, like, fantasy-friendly targets and opportunities. I mean, you know, a Christian Kirk screen is not worth the same as a Stephon Diggs, you know, 40-yard bomb down the field. So I don't think Thielen's going to necessarily be this, like, full-time field stretcher. But the point is, you know, new receiver, new wide receiver one,

don't expect Thielen to only have 94 targets next season and throughout his career usually averages 13 to 15 yards per reception so he is the do-it-all type of guy where they'll use him underneath intermediate and deep which there are not too many receivers in the NFL who are who can succeed running routes at all different levels and that's where if you were looking for the deep sleeper with B.C. Johnson, the one concern that you would have is that he only averaged nine yards a catch last year. And that's where I wrote if B.C. Johnson wants to take a next step in terms of his contribution, he has to be some sort of downfield threat for them because I just don't see Justin Jefferson as a true deep downfield type of guy. I see him much more as a yards after catch type of receiver. Yeah, I wish they would have done a better job at finding some speed

to replace Diggs' role. I mean, I know they brought in Tajay Sharp. I'm not quite sure what they were expecting there. But, I mean, yeah, you said it, man. I mean, Justin Jefferson, even though I do think he can be more than just a strictly slot receiver, he's not really someone that's going to, you know, put just overwhelming fear into some you know cornerbacks back uh uh that you know they need to stay over the top the entire game so yeah maybe that's something though you know

address a little further uh going into 2021 but you know it's it's one of those things where people do worry about feeling they go what happens when you don't have digs that take away attention it's a valid concern but again we're in this offense where no one else is really going to command even close to the same sort of target share, even if that 13 to 15 yards per reception drops to, you know, 11 or 12 or something like that. I just think the volume is going to be more than enough to make up for it.

I also think that it's overrated. Like, I mean, if you go through a game and say, well, they were doubling Stephon Diggs, or they were, you know, trying to put a safety over top of him, but for how many plays? I mean, you know, you might see that on a third and ten or something. In 2018, there was so little fear of the third wide receiver of the Vikings that they occasionally doubled both Thielen and Diggs. I know that happened in Seattle and New England, but I doubt we're going to see that,

especially with the fact that you have a running back coming out of the backfield that if you throw him a check down can turn it into 30 yards you have Irv Smith who can stretch the field as a tight end I just don't think that they're going to put you know a corner and a safety right on Adam Thiel in every play and he'll have his opportunities now on sorry follow up on that well I just want to talk about Ir smith a little bit man oh yeah let's go see what he can do i mean this dude flashed almost every single week last year and you know for him and kyle rudolph to finish like one target i mean rudolph at like 48 or was at 47 and you know rudolph was the guy they really looked to more in the red zone you know a lot

of stuff was more underneath uh check down variety but you just don't see tight ends with that kind of sort of ability with a ball in their hands. And you look a little bit closer and it's due to running crisp routes as well. I mean, I heard some news out of Vikings camp, but they were, you know, experimenting, lining him out wide in the slot. You know, we always hear this time of the year. Okay. You know, this running back getting more slot reps,

maybe we'll see more two tight end formations from this team. But in Minnesota, you know, like we said, starting off, I mean, this was an offense that utilized three wide receiver formations at a very low rate, similar to Philly with, you know, Ertz and Goddard. I think Ertz Smith and Kyle Rudolph, it probably behooved the offense to get those two out on the field as much as possible. My PFF is broken at the moment, but I can tell you they used him a lot as an outside wide receiver to motion

or to get a read for Kirk Cousins. Is it the corner who's out there with him? Is it a linebacker who's following him? And there was one particular play. I did a film piece on Irv Smith Jr. this offseason in Kansas City where he ran a deep dig route of something like 18 to 20 yards, and he used the leverage of the safety and broke it off sharp, and it was one of those where you went, well, that's a tight end. He took a hit, too, and he held on.

That's right. Yep, you know exactly the play I'm talking about. Like that is not something you see. It was not the perfect throw, and he had to take a hit, and you went, whoa, okay. If they want to do more with that, he can be almost a number three wide receiver. But then he was surprisingly good at handling himself with blocking. So, you know, this is a guy who could play, I think, a lot of snaps. And then we'll see how they manage the B.C. Johnson, Justin Jefferson,

Irv Smith, and we might end up seeing those guys just rotate, depending on how things go. Or he could just take, you just take snaps away from Kyle Rudolph, who has never been a plus blocker. If Irv is an average blocker, then maybe he should be out there more often. I think there's a good chance for him to get up into that maybe even 40, 50-plus type of catch range, I think. I think he's going to be a huge part of this offense,

and it's looked that way in camp. Yeah, I would love – and unfortunately unfortunately or I guess fortunately for the Vikings like Kyle Rudolph is not washed or anything like that I mean it would have it would be easy to say that and say Ersmus should definitely be getting all these targets but no I mean Rudolph was still doing his thing last year I mean that the one-handed touchdown he had against the Cowboys were like cousins through the jump pass was like the most unexpectedly swaggy score of the entire 2019 season. So, no, Rudolph is still doing his thing. But Earthsmith, I mean, I put Earthsmith, Dallas Goddard,

maybe a Foster Moreau from the Raiders. Just the backup tight ends where if their starter goes down and all of a sudden we get the featured guy, I mean, Earthsmith would be a top five to eight, you know, weekly tight end in fantasy if something happened to Rudolph. We'll get back to the conversation in just a minute, but first got to tell you about TheraOne CBD. From tight muscles, tough workouts, signs of aging, to simply making it through each busy day, everyone understands what it feels like to be tense and sore, so everyone can benefit from

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Visit NFLSundayTicket.tv and use promo code BLUEWIRE. Yeah, they're still going to throw to Rudolph in the red zone. And I once had Sam Bradford on my show, and Sam Bradford talked about how Kirk Cousins needed to learn to just throw it to Rudolph because even if someone is right on him, he's still open. I mean, the guy was a basketball player. You could throw it up to him in any situation and he'll be able to make the catch. Or, you know, even if it's, you know, third and seven and you need eight yards, he'll get you eight yards if you need it. So, all right, let's run through some of these on the schedule. Aaron Jones is an interesting one to me because they drafted Mr. Insanely Sexy Legs,

A.J. Dillon. But, you know, I still think that Aaron Jones is really versatile. And the fact that they did not, the Packers did not draft a wide receiver, which has been well documented, Aaron Jones is going to have to get a lot of passes, right? That's what I'm hoping, man. And it it's like you look at these situations where um kind of same thing with cleveland they never addressed number three wide receiver position you know packers didn't address they tried to add devin funches he hopped it out so they didn't anything so when that happens i feel more confident in predicting guys like aaron jones kareem hunt to get those extra snaps in the slot or out wide he has a skill set to do it, but can we assume rational coaching in Green Bay

with Matt LaFleur who, you know, infamously played Deion Lewis over Derrick Henry for the first three months of the 2018 season? It's just tough, man, because, I mean, as good as Aaron Jones is as a receiver and just overall talent, I mean, the guy had – he had 6.8 targets per game when Devontae Adams was out last season. Adams came back and it went down to 3.5 I mean he only had one game with more than six snaps and the slaughter out wide and that was that I think it was Sunday night versus Kansas City he went for 150 plus and two scores as a

receiver I mean he can do it all and it's just frustrating when you see these kind of I mean it happened with the Chargers a lot last year like Austin Eckler sitting on the bench Andre Patton's out there not doing anything it's like just, just if you want to have A.J. Dillon in the backfield, put Aaron Jones out wide. It's going to take more attention than if you have, you know, Equinemius St. Brown or Marquez Valdez-Scantling or whoever it might be. I hope they use him more that way. I don't really think they will.

Because of that, I have Aaron Jones as my RB14. I mean, even if, you know, and the argument is that, okay, his touchdown touchdowns are going to regress he's not going to score 18 or whatever it was again and he can still be a you know solid fancy contributor but I mean Jamal Williams we're still hearing that they like this guy enough to keep him so if it was just Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and Jones's past game work increased okay like that's our path to him being another RB1 but I'm just concerned we're going to see, you know, three RB committee and an offense that is pretty much, that can't be as good as they were last year scoring wise,

because this was more or less a 500 team in most efficiency rates. You have hit on something that has been a fundamental part of this show, which is why don't they play more than one running back on the field that are playmakers? I mean, C.J. Hamm, much respect to all fullbacks, but Alexander Madison can play. And Delvin Cook in college lined up as a wide receiver at times, and there's been just a few times throughout these first couple years where they've lined him up at a wide receiver spot.

Once against Green Bay, he ran a slant, got like 25 yards. Another time there was a bubble screen where if he had gotten one block, he's breaking it out maybe for a touchdown out of the slot. I think last year they ran him on a jet sweep one time. It's like, okay, can you do that more often and play Alexander Madison at the same time? I think that even going forward in the NFL, that would be a great play for a lot of teams

with just a focus on short passing anyway, getting the ball into the hands of guys who are the absolute best playmakers there are. Oh yeah, man. It's just unfortunate we don't see more teams actually go ahead and try to do it. It's one of those things where you see it working. It's like, why are they not doing this more often? But I mean, last year, the only running backs who spent at least 20% of their snaps in the slaughterout wide were Tariq Cohen, Kareem Hunt, Austin Eckler, Naeem Hines, Duke Johnson, Alvin Kamara. And, okay, yes, those guys are all fantastic receivers that deserve it.

But, exactly, man. Like, Dalvin Cook is so electric with the ball in his hands. Why not try to do these guys a favor and get the ball in space more? Because guess what's, like, scarier than, you know, getting your ball to your wide receiver outside? It's having Dalvin Cook one-on-one with a cornerback and we spend all game trying to get those matchups and sometimes it's argument for why why is Derek Henry not used more in the past game I understand the guy doesn't have the same caliber hands as Christian McCaffrey but all you're trying to do is get your playmakers in open field and yeah to

your point I think having you know two running, if they're your best options, if they're in your top five skill position players, why would you not try to get as many of your best players on the field as possible at once? And this is why you love Cordero Patterson so much. Yes. We discussed the last time you were on. Just give him the football. Okay, I won't go game by game for sure because that would take extremely long

and you have things to do. But the two quarterbacks in week two or three for the vikings are both fascinating to me because i just don't know what to expect like how raw washed is philip rivers and how much will ryan tannehill regress are super interesting questions for fantasy players who need quarterbacks but also for vikings defenders who have never been on the field before, like Cam Dantzler, Jeff Gladney, these young corners who have very little experience. You could sell me on Phillip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill being a huge challenge for them,

or you could sell me on Phillip Rivers will throw him the ball three or four times, and Tannehill will regress and look nothing like he looked last year. Man, last year was bad for Rivers. I mean, it was PFF tracks, turnover-worthy plays, so not even necessarily just interceptions and fumbles, but how many times he hit a defender in the chest and they dropped it. And, I mean, going back to 2017, the only guys with more turnover-worthy plays in the season than Rivers last year were Jameis last season and Kyle Allen, and then Phillip Rivers.

I mean, that deep ball, I mean, it's always kind of fluttered, but more than ever it seemed like he didn't quite have a clue where that was going. And, you know, look at who he was throwing to, man. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Eckler, Hunter Henry. It's a downgrade in Indianapolis. I mean, I know T.Y. Hilton is apparently healthy now. And I'm a fan of Paris Campbell. Hopefully he's okay after that, you know, mini car accident concussion protocol.

But it's just not the same caliber weapons. He's got the great offensive line, but everything we're hearing out on that campus, he's going to be kind of dinking and ducking it anyway. One of the best stats I've heard this whole off season, I think it was from Matthew Berry, Phillip Rivers has never had a game with more than 30 fantasy points. I mean, Daniel Jones had three last season,

and I was shocked that Rivers never got that, you know, back in the day when he was just, you know, zinging it up there to Vincent Jackson and those guys all the time but he's never had that feeling definitely doesn't have it now worse weapons maybe he can be a game manager and you know do your thing that offensive line is so good I think the defense is underrated but now I mean I wouldn't worry about him too much in fantasy land and then with Tannehill the one thing we got to keep in mind with these guys I'm not really targeting Tannehill and the one thing we got to keep in mind with these guys, I'm not really targeting Tannehill in too much of a fantasy, but more so talking about A.J. Brown. I hate when people just yell regression just and they end it there.

It's like, okay, yeah, Tannehill's not going to be as good as he was last year because he was one of the most efficient quarterbacks we've literally seen over the last, like, you know, decade. And, you know, A.J. Brown, okay, he's not going to break PFF's database for most yards after the catch per reception again. But, you know, shout out to Hayden Winstead, Roto World, who looked at these quarterbacks that are posting these, you know, astronomical touchdown rates.

And the next season, yeah, they regress in that, but their pass attempts go up because the coaches see how good they are. And when you see how good they are, they give you more volume. So, you know, it's okay to, you know, have your projections. Okay, don't put Tannehill with a seven or 8% touchdown rate again, but just realize like he's probably gonna be throwing the ball more often. AJ Brown is going to be getting more targets. I mean, do not assume regression without also looking at volume. And so, yeah,

I'm not, I'm not lining up to Ryan Tannehill, but give me all the AJ Brown this year, man. And if that's the thing, if AJ Brown didn't exist, I might say, okay, well, Tannehill won't be able to do it again. But A.J. Brown is going to help him a lot. I think it's a really good team. And maybe a few more checkdowns to Derrick Henry and allowing him to run with the football is a good idea since they just paid him.

But, I mean, I think Tennessee has everything to win that division. And if Tannehill is even a decent version of himself, then he'll be good, but maybe not a fantasy megastar from last year. If you picked him up in the middle of the year, oh my gosh, you probably won your league. But two rookies that I want to get to, DeAndre Swift and CeeDee Lamb. Two guys who could, I think, swing games against the Vikings. DeAndre Swift, you know, an all-around type of running back who has been the missing piece for the Lions since Barry Sanders. I mean, who's the best not Barry Sanders running back, like,

since the 90s for Detroit? You might be right, man. I mean, it seemed like carry-on, people were high on carry-on, but then we got carry-on, like, coming out and, like, out of his – carry-on Johnson said this where he goes, I cannot learn from DeAndre Swift because he can move his hips and, like, move his lower body in ways that I physically cannot. I mean, you said he is that missing.

You know, he's got theoretics receiving ability with, you know, your joint bell or whoever, you know, what they thought they had with them. Good one. Good one. As a rusher. So, yeah, man, he is a do-it-all guy. I just question, especially now since he's been banged up throughout training camp.

I mean, we saw how long it took Patricia and these guys to give carry on a three-down roll, even though he was deserving of it. Then he got hurt. And, obviously, he's not going to be getting that again. And I just have my reservations in thinking Swift is going to kind of get this 60 plus snap you know featured workload because when carry on came back last year they were using Ty Johnson, JD McKissick, Bo Scarborough all in addition to it so okay if it's Swift and carry on with Swift is the 1A like that's fine it's an underrated Lions offense as long as Stafford is back there he can put up points but to me this feels like more of a three or four running back committee I have Swift uh RB 31 oh not awful one spot you know I had a JK

Dobbins kind of right there with uh Ronald Jones and Cam Akers but you know I'm fine like zero RB people out there like if you want to go for them then by all means means. But I would just temper, at a minimum, you know, your kind of first half of the season expectations. Okay, before I ask you about C.D. Lamb, Kevin Jones from 2004 to 2007 gained 3,000 yards, and Kevin Smith from 2008 to 2012 gained 2,346 yards. And then Joyke Bell is the next behind them. It has been – and then joik bell is the next behind them it has been uh and then amir abdullah in

terms of like guys since amir abdullah and reggie bush both went over a thousand yards for that wow sean bryson got mixed in here for over a thousand yards hey real quick is abdullah gonna make the squad mannesota you know what i just put out a 53 and i haggled over that one a ton and i did include him and I did not include KJ Osborne their fifth round pick that's kind of a punt returner I went back and forth on that I think they really like Abdullah though he's a very very smart player and he can be the occasional hey Amir Abdullah's out there on third down and whoop he caught a 10-yard pass so he ends up with like six catches or something but they all meant something um and a kick returner can punt return i think they keep

him but i don't know i'm going back and forth on that one man because i've been hyping up uh latavius murray tony pauler chase evans and madison because to me those are kind of the guys that if the starter goes down like they're going to be eating and he got a talented back that should have you know a near three down workload i would imagine k going to be eating, and you've got a talented back that should have, you know, a near three-down workload. I would imagine Kubiak and those guys, if Dalvin wasn't in the picture, they're going to get Madison as 15, 20 carries per game. But, man, if Dula wasn't involved, you know, Madison would get those targets too.

No, Madison's the guy. I mean, Madison is 100% the guy. If Dalvin Cook is not there, Madison's going to be a three-down back. I think that they believe in him getting better enough at pass protection and also that he can catch the ball out of the backfield. He proved that last year in a couple of games. So, I mean, yeah, I think he takes over almost the complete role with Abdullah and Mike Boone, like kind of switching in a little bit. C.D. Lamb, though, he was my favorite receiver in the draft. And for Dallas to get him, like, wow, I don't know how that happened.

But he is in the mix with other very, very good wide receivers, notably Amari Cooper, but in an offense that could throw all the time and be really dangerous. That's the thing, man. I mean, look, probably the biggest miss I had last – okay, one of the biggest misses I had last year going into the season was just thinking O.J. Howard was going to, you know, meet his lofty ADP, and he was going like tight end four. Evans was a top ten tight end, and, you know, Chris Goblin was a top 15 pick

pretty much. And, you know, the big lesson I learned from that was, like, be careful about assuming, you know, three or four high-end fantasy guys out of the same offense. And Dallas, this is a different situation though because we saw how good they were last year it's not as unproven as it was you know with Bruce Aarons just coming into Tampa in 2019 we saw them do it and these guys aren't costing as much I mean CeeDee Lamb like you said man a lot of people's you know wide receiver one on the board going to draft him he's not really even being drafted inside the top 40 dudes in redraft he's going to be starting right away and yeah marty cooper and michael

gallup are you know probably the favorites to lead that squad and targets but quietly losing jason whitton and randall cobb both those guys had 83 targets last year only the falcons have more available targets than the cowboys entering next season we know the offense is going to put up points. And I mean, if CeeDee Lamb is as good as everyone thinks he is, this guy can definitely be a year one contributor. So, you know, we also have Blake Jarn in there. And, you know, the fact that none of these guys are really all that expensive, even though, again, we know this offense is going to put up points,

I think they're all more than worthy targets at their ADP. And CeeDee Lamb, even if it doesn't work out for him, I thought he was a great route runner in college, but even if it doesn't work out for him for knowing the whole offense, he's a yards after catch guy. Like he was one of the most fun to watch. And Jalen Hurts can really thank him in a lot of ways for that second round draft pick because he was marvelous. Last guy on the list, I'm going to go way off the board here, Tom Brady. What do you expect from Tom Brady when it comes to his fantasy production? I mean, and just really in general, because the weapons there are nuts, but he's old.

How are you dealing with this problem? People were like seamlessly expecting Brady to just take Jameis' role, which, okay, obviously Brady's the starting quarterback, but he's not going to tie for the lead league in pass attempts like Jameis' role, which, okay, obviously, Brady's the starting quarterback, but he's not going to tie for the lead league in pass attempts like Jameis did last year. I don't think this could be the same gunslinger mentality. I mean, we have Bruce Arians coming out and saying, no longer is no risk it, no biscuit his motto.

Now he's on this, you know, you can't go broke making a profit BS. And that's not really what fantasy owners want to hear, man. And, you know, Brady, okay, I know how banged up the Patriots weapons were last year, and he's got so many upgrades all over the place, but that was the worst version of Brady we've seen since 2006. Say what you want about the weapons. The guy's 43.

I am not, you know, reaching on Brady at all. I have him as my QB 11, so I expect him to put up numbers. But, you know, seeing people taking him inside the top eight, miss me with that, man. I just, I'm not there with it. And I think also we need to, again, I'm trying to learn lessons numbers, but, you know, seeing people taking them inside the top eight, miss me with that, man. I just, I'm not there with it. And I think also we need to, again, I'm trying to learn lessons from last year, and I'm looking at this offense, and it's like, really? We think Brady, 43-year-old Tom Brady is going to enable, you know,

two top 12 fantasy wide receivers? I don't think so. I think Goblin will probably get there, but Mike Evans, man, with Bruce Arians talking about how they're not really going to, you know, evolve his route tree to include more underneath stuff he's still there you know vertical guy like yeah he's amazing on vertical routes he can do everything mike evans is a complete stud but you know i have evans as my wide receiver 18 governance my wide receiver 10 more so just i don't expect this offense to enable quite as many uh you know pieces not have the same

volume probably be a better team absolutely i mean I mean, not having 30 interceptions is going to go a long way for any squad. But I just think probably the hype is kind of overshadowing the rifle projections. And all these guys are more or less being priced at their ceiling. I mean, give me, you know, some of these Houston or New York Giants wide receivers that are outside the top 30 where, okay, if, you know, they stay healthy, they're like, that's their worst case scenario. And the best case scenario

is, you know, finishing top 15 or something. All these guys in Tampa, I mean, they pretty much need everything to work out in order to even meet value. One of my favorite things to think about is just how much different stats can be than actual performance you know and and if we think about Brady he might win games 21-14 24-17 and throw for uh you know 198 yards with a touchdown no interceptions an average seven yards an attempt and and be great and yet you know if you have Mike Evans you're going to be super mad about that because last year they're playing from behind so often that Winston you know is having to throw it all over the place but you know that also benefits the wide receivers when it comes to the fantasy so

that's a really interesting situation to kind of balance yeah and I mean look he's there's never been a rushing floor like it's not like that's going to come out of nowhere so look is Brady still a top eight real life quarterback he very well could be but just in terms of fantasy man like give me Lamar Mahomes Dak Kyler Deshaun Josh Allen like okay obviously you want Tom Brady under center than Josh Allen but in fantasy no you want the guy that runs around like a chicken with his head cut off and he's going to go pick up as many yards as possible, man. And that is what I appreciate greatly about your analysis is connecting those two things and bridging that gap between, you know, what actually works to win football games and what works to win in fantasy.

Well, if you lose your fantasy draft after listening to this, that's on you. So great information from you, Ian Harditz. Make sure you follow him on Twitter. And I don't have your Twitter up, so say your Twitter. At I Harditz, I-H-A-R-T-I-T-Z. And check out the PFF Fantasy Football Podcast. I have episodes out almost every day. For sure.

I'm really excited about the PFF Fantasy Podcast. You guys are doing awesome work. But you need to be like at PFF underscore Ian, don't you? Like, I mean, what is that at? Oh, I don't know about that. No, you don't want to be one of those people. I kind of like being the rebel in the company. I still got, you know, I still got Johnny Dapp, Hunter S. Thompson as the pick.

I still, you know, I'm still the official president of the Cordero Patterson fan club. We'll see what happens. So far, they've let me continue to be me. So I appreciate all my fine coworkers over at PFF. All right, man, you do awesome work. People should follow you there and listen to the podcast for sure. And we'll do it again soon, Ian. Yes, sir.

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