Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Vikings-Patriots might be the hardest game of the year to pick

Episode Date: November 23, 2022

Matthew Coller and Will Ragatz of Sports Illustrated get together to talk about how difficult it is to pin down the Vikings-Patriots Thanksgiving Day matchup. The Vikings are reeling on the offensive line but the Patriots' offense is horrendous. What do we make of Kevin O'Connell's handling of tough losses? Why isn't the offense putting up numbers? What will it say if they can get the train back on the tracks? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar here, Sports Illustrated Vikings reporter, Will Regetts for the hardcore breakdown. We are just hours away from the Vikings taking the field against the New England Patriots. How are you feeling, Will? I'm feeling good. I'm very, very curious to see how this Vikings team

bounces back in prime time from getting embarrassed against the Cowboys and kind of giving fodder to all the people who doubted them. Not that that matters to them at all, of course, but yeah, the narratives are going to be kind of one way or another. We're going to learn a lot about how they respond. Is this just a one-time aberration where they didn't show up and they got smacked around just a one-time aberration where they didn't show up and they got, they got smacked around by a really good football team, or are we going to see kind of some similar issues pop up?

And then you start to think, Hey, what's this team ceiling in January. So big game Thursday night and Thanksgiving football is just always fun. It is. It is. And I love covering games on Thanksgiving. I'm sure that people with families and stuff who, you know, I mean, my family lives on one coast and my wife's family lives on another coast.

So we really never have had Thanksgiving since we moved to Minnesota with our families anyway. So I'm like, let's go. Let's let's have some football on the 725 game. Just thank you, Raj. Thank you, Raj. It doesn't get any better than that because we get to watch all the other games and then go to US Bank Stadium. The night atmosphere at US Bank Stadium is just amazing. But for this game in particular, I think that there's got to be some serious nervousness

inside the building at TCO Performance Center, but also for the fans inside the building at US Bank Stadium after what they saw last week. A friend direct messaged me this morning and said, hey, I'm looking for a lock of the week, and I was thinking about taking Minnesota minus 2.5. What do you think of that? And my response was, I don't know. I get it. I get where you're coming from. Like, I know why you would do that. Because when you look at the Vikings team at eight and two, and they have one of the best players in the world in Justin Jefferson, there's a lot to write home about, about this

Vikings team. Also, you can make a case just like we did with the letdown game for last week, where we talked about, this happens you could also have the bounce back game which also happens but i am very much in the ball ballpark with this because of the new england patriots defense will yeah i think that uh that little sound you made that i'm not going to try to replicate. That yours was better, but that is a good way to – it's how I feel about this game too. I mean, I could see them bouncing back, and I think naturally they will to some extent.

They're not going to lose by 37 to the Patriots. The Patriots don't have nearly the offense that Dallas does. But, I mean, the defense is pretty similar. You look at the league lead team-wise in terms of sack rate and pressure rate. The Cowboys are one. The Patriots are two. I mean, I don't know if it's exactly that, but it's those kind of stats. They are both right up there. Matthew Judon leads the NFL by a kind of wide margin with 13 sacks. He's been unbelievable. The Vikings will not have Christian Derrissaw against him.

It'll be Blake Brandel at left tackle. The Patriots have some other guys up front. Dietrich Wise Jr. has had a really good season. And then kind of most importantly, they have Bill Belichick kind of running the whole thing and one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of football. And he's undoubtedly, he watched that game and watched that tape, and he's going to try to exploit some of the things that the Cowboys exploited against the Vikings, whether that's the simulated pressures

that gave the Vikings a lot of trouble where they would bring six or seven guys to the line and then drop some into coverage and win by rushing four. And Kirk Cousins would have to really try to adjust on the fly. And then before he figured it out, he'd be on the ground. So yeah, I it's, it's just tough to know. I, we're going to make a prediction at the end of this and I haven't decided yet where I'm going to go with that.

So I'll be figuring that out over the next 30 minutes or so, but yeah, it's we'll see. I think they'll bounce back to some extent, but I can see this being kind of a low scoring kind of messy affair with the, what the Patriots have done recently. When it comes to our picking games, I've lost my confidence like a Vikings right guard. I am just not sure at all of myself after 40 to three, even though I was, I was leaning a little cowboys in that game and sort of trying to explain, Hey, the folks, this is why they're favored. But I never would have expected that in a million years.

So I did some research and I looked at a few different things, factors going into this game. One of them was how Bill Belichick does on Thursdays. Now, the asterisk to everything Bill Belichick is how Tom Brady used to do on Thursdays. But just since 2013, they've played 11 times on Thursday and they are nine and two. That shouldn't surprise you. They have the best point differential of any team in the NFL on Thursday night. Shout out to our friends at Pro Football Reference. You can look up anything. And so I was able to come across that stat.

So there is something to Bill Belichick on Thursdays. And not all of that was Tom Brady, but most of it. So, you know, okay, Mac Jones is definitely no Tom Brady. I also looked at how Kirk Cousins has bounced back from losses of more than two touchdowns. And the crazy thing, I mean, I guess it's crazy, but maybe this is how you keep a job for a long time. He has had very, very few of those in his career. I mean, one out of every like 14 starts or something. I think it was 14 out of 130 games have been decided that he lost by more than two touchdowns.

I mean, that is just not a Kirk Cousins thing to lose by more than two touchdowns like that. So after the game against Buffalo in 2018, they bounced back. He had one of his best games as a Viking against Los Angeles. It's just that the defense did not take the flight out to L.A. And then there was the game against Indianapolis, which is maybe the worst game we've ever seen Cousins play in 2020 week to the following week. They put up 30 points against Tennessee. The problem is that like those were two defenses, the Rams that year in Tennessee that were not really good at all. And this is a good defense. So there isn't much of a sample size to work with,

with a Belichick having anyone except for Tom Brady, win him games on Thursdays, or for us to really say, Oh, Hey, Kirk's really great at bouncing back or he's not really great at bouncing back. But there are, I don't know if you agree with this. There's only a time I remember them losing badly two games in a row during his entire tenure here. I mean, bad losses, not like close, like, Oh, Kirk didn't come through at the end. I mean, like you got whipped. And that was when D. Filippo got fired when they lost to New England 21-7, I think, or something like that. Or maybe it was Seattle. They lost 21-7, but those two back-to-back games are the only time I really remember that happening to Kirk. So he is pretty good at, I think, bouncing back and not letting two horrendous

games happen in a row. That's kind of the appeal of, of Kirk cousins, right? Is that he's gonna, he's gonna get you in the game. Most of the time, you're probably not gonna blow many teams out. I don't think that's happened a whole lot in, in his Vikings tenure.

And certainly hasn't happened this year since week one, but it's also not going to get blown out very often because he's just, he's, he's such an experienced quarterback. He's going to be able to generally shake things off and then come back from a bad series or two and then start to play well. And it just didn't happen in that Cowboys game. The pressure got there early and things just kind of spiraled out of control. Kirk started to look a little bit kind of shook in the pocket, which was fair given what was going on around him but yeah you mentioned it like right away like there's

got to be some real kind of concern or nervousness in that Vikings facility even if they're not going to publicly say that or anything or they're not even going to necessarily say that to each other but like there's just such a blatant and obvious challenge this week that usually you're like oh this will be maybe an interesting thing to watch or this will be it's just can you protect kurt cousins or can you mitigate the pressure that is probably coming by finding ways to get the ball out quickly or to utilize the screen game or to do run the ball better like it's the's the Vikings are not going to kind of hold the Patriots to a low pressure rate in this game.

I would be surprised by that. We just, when you look at the numbers this year on both sides, what the Patriots have done, Matthew Judon, the lack of Darisaw. So it's just on, on a short week,

they had like three days. I mean, they, the coaches got to work right away on Sunday night, kind of watching that film and then, and then turning the page to new England. They've had three days to figure out a plan to, if we're not going to be able to kind of just protect normally.

And if we think they're going to get pressure because they probably will, we got to figure out a way around this and we got to, it's not as simple as just getting the ball out quickly. There's, there's there's the route concepts have to be have to be linked up with that idea and the different ways you're going to use your tight ends and your running backs and and it's just they've got to have a whole plan that they come up with really quickly to figure out a way to make the offense work when you're not just going to be able to say hey hey, Kirk, take a seven-step drop and find Jefferson downfield

because you're probably not going to have time for that very often. Right, and that's the thing about what Justin Jefferson said about we needed to adjust quicker, we needed to get going faster with that quick game. And I thought this is true, and I agree with him, but it's actually notable that he's saying it and saying it publicly. Like there was some frustration there. And I sensed a hint of defensiveness from Kevin O'Connell about that comment when he

was asked about it, where he was like, oh, we've adjusted in lots of games. And I'm like, I guess so. Yeah. I mean, I guess like most of the games have gone this way. You start out with a touchdown drive. You look fantastic. Then two and a half quarters later, your offense wakes back up and starts scoring points in the fourth quarter and you win.

That has been most of it. I don't know if that's adjustments or that's been more teams trying to protect leads against Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins and play off and make mistakes and Kirk takes advantage. And then, you you know i think that he's been very confident in those late game situations cousins has this year but if you're telling me that you've made great adjustments in games when the defense changes up after your first drive i'm just gonna have to agree to disagree i have not seen that so far this year so can you make a game plan adjustment now when you know that this pass rush

is coming? Because the minute they ruled out Christian Derrissaw, I was like, oh, pass rush coming. I mean, it's been coming anyway when you have interior rush, but especially now that you're talking about a backup left tackle. And when I went back and watched Blake Brandel's play, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. Yeah, it was not like it was in Buffalo where he was kind of one of the heroes of that game uh it was much more of getting dominated play after play after play there's one play where uh Parsons I think it's Parsons just runs right through him and then Delvin Cook was supposed to be blocking someone else but Cook tried to sort of tries to throw a body his way and he gets thrown aside and Kirk just gets sacked almost instantly. Like these things are going to be tough. And I think that if they don't

make some serious changes, even in a couple of days with how they get the ball out quickly, because the average, I look this up, the average, this is what I mean. Anything is available. Anything you need to know. The average Kirk Cousins sack is happening the third fastest of any sack in the league so when he's getting sacked it's it's three seconds is his average sack that's really fast that means the rush is getting there and it's causing a lot of problems when he gets sacked and I just don't see how they're supposed to slow down uh that pass rush the problem is when you're facing bill belichick is this man makes it his life goal to shut down top receivers like find something in your life that you love as much as he loves double teaming and not not like some soft all over the top play the guy 7 000 yards back like no he's

really going to double team your guy and in 2018 will you probably remember this every third down it was two dudes on digs and it was two dudes on theo and it was like laquan treadwell beat us on third down we dare you and kirk targeted laquan treadwell on a key fourth down i think this is what this is what they have to be most concerned about like i don't think the patriots are a better overall football team than the Vikings but Belichick being wily when it comes to taking away the another team's best weapon I think is along with the pressure the biggest concern here yeah Belichick just in general I think is a big concern for for those reasons I mean for the reasons of doubling and also like Kevin O'Connell and his staff have to show up with a plan.

But Bill Belichick is going to show up with a plan, too, and maybe try to anticipate some changes that the Vikings are going to make. So there's just this whole chess match was the fun little side story of Kevin O'Connell was drafted by the Patriots and played for Bill Belichick. And that was kind of inspired how him eventually becoming an NFL head coach. But yeah, I mean, this Patriots defense is just maybe a tiny, tiny notch behind the Cowboys, but they are right up there. They have allowed three points total in each of the last two games. And granted, that was against Zach Wilson last week, who just got benched. But this defense is really, really good.

The offense is not nearly on the level of the Cowboys where they're going to beat you with explosive plays and things like that. They're capable. They have some good running backs from Andre Stevenson's had a good year. Like they can, they can move the ball a little bit, but the Vikings are just probably going to have to find a way to get to like 20 points,

24 points, something around that. And that'll probably be able to win the game. I'm get to like 20 points, 24 points, something around that. And that'll probably be able to win the game. I'm assuming that, like I'll say I'm more confident in the Vikings defense bouncing back than I am necessarily in the Vikings offense, specifically in this matchup, because I think it was kind of an uncharacteristically quiet game from Zedaria Smith and Daniil Hunter who have had really good years um Smith I think is is mostly healthy it's a short week and he's been kind of dealing with a knee but he had been so good he just wasn't really a factor outside of that one time that Dak Prescott like spun right

through his arms that could have been a a big play early and then like I think Jordan Hicks Eric Hendricks like all those all those guys will bounce back Harrison Smith Patrick Peterson weren't really huge factors in that game but i so i i'm more confident the vikings defense bouncing back the offense is just i have no idea what to expect because this patriots defense is so good they're going to bring pressure matthew judan has had an unbelievable season you you miss in derisal which we can't really be overstated how important that is when he's been your second best player behind justin jeff all season. And if they try to take Jefferson away, then I just like TJ Hawkinson, I think would be the guy I would have the most confidence in.

And he had a little bit of a shaky game with an end zone drop. I haven't really seen much kind of vintage Adam Thielen this year. He he's been a little bit kind of he's kind of struggled to create separation kj osborne hasn't really taken another step after that big big step last year he's just kind of a serviceable guy so it's like who do you who do you go to if they're taking away jefferson and i think it's got to be a lot of hockinson it's got to be a lot of dalvin cook running the ball like running the ball early is is a big way to kind of mitigate pressure and not keep yourself invincible down to distances and then if you can also get the ball if Dalvin Cook can kind of chip on somebody coming in in protection and then leak out and take a screen or something that's a great way to defeat pressure so

yeah it's gonna they're gonna have to figure it, and I don't know what the answers are, and that's why I'm not an NFL head coach. Folks, maybe you've noticed people in your office with what looks like an open tall boy at their desk in the morning at work. Well, it's not a beer. It's more likely it's a can of liquid death, which sounds pretty crazy at first, but it's simply mountain water from the Alps. It's called liquid death because it will murder your thirst and kill plastic pollution, which does seem aggressive, but that's their mission, and they are donating 10% of profits to help reduce plastic pollution.

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with their store locator tool at liquid death.com slash insider that's liquid death.com slash insider so the story is very far from written on the Minnesota Vikings 2022 offense we agree on that so we're not making a definitive statement here just quite yet, but I want to ask you this. How do we deal with the team is eight and two Kevin O'Connell, I believe has checked a lot of really important boxes this year. His leadership, I think has been terrific. How he's handled these losses has been terrific I mean neither game did he look like he was so shook after the loss that he was about to melt down the whole team like maybe a previous coach that was here uh I think that the way that they've

handled player health I don't know what to say about the Derrissaw thing exactly I mean I always question those but aside from that they've been one of the healthiest teams in the NFL now getting some bumps and bruises, but I think that approach was good. I think handling the veterans has been a plus from Kevin O'Connell, but go to the paper here, go to the pro football reference. They are 19th in the NFL in the percentage of drives where they produce points. That is very bad. They're worse than the Jaguars. They're worse than the saints for how often they produce drives and expected points added, which grades you against the situation. You know? So if you, you know, get a 20 yard play, it gets you closer to scoring. How much points eight, you added that whole thing.

They are 16th. The definition of mediocrity in the NFL. Kirk Cousins has his worst career stats. Like, these are just facts about their offense. If Clint Kubiak is calling the plays and Mike Zimmer's the head coach and these are the numbers, we're going, fire Zimmer. Clint Kubiak is Gary's child and doesn't know what he's doing. Like, how do we deal with this? K.J. Osborneborne quite a bit better last year, right? Then he was this year. Adam Thielen was better when he was healthy. They got more out

of the tight end position. Now I know Hawkinson is here, but Tyler Conklin more out of the tight end position. Their pressure rate was lower last year than it is this year. I mean, everything on paper, that's not to say that people are more confident and that they haven't been clutch in the biggest situations, not to take away from any of that, but how are you feeling about that? Like, how do you process what's happening on paper with the offense versus all the other things that we could say? Kevin O'Connell has done very well this year. Yeah. It's weird because Kevin O'Connell 100% has been a good hire so far and has done a lot of good things that you just mentioned with the culture and with the leadership,

which is a really, really important thing when you're leading a large group of grown NFL football players. And that should not be kind of discounted but there's a world where the Vikings don't pull off that Lions game and they don't get a double doink in London and they don't come back like Taylor Heineke doesn't gift them an interception late in the fourth quarter and they're like six and four right now and then we're not like talking about Kevin O'Connell as a coach of the year we're talking about okay this team's been interesting at times and justin jefferson's really good and christian derrissaw is really good but have they improved that much because if you look at the the

epa per play numbers the dvoa numbers i mean dvoa there which is kind of just this overall metric that measures your kind of play-to-play performance. It's adjusted for the defenses you're facing, both sides of the ball. I mean, they're 24th overall in the league right now, despite being 8-2. Like, they're behind some 3-7 teams. Offensively, they're 19th, which is right about where those numbers you were listing are. Like, you can argue that the 2020 and 2021 teams aren't that different like and those teams weren't very good they were 500 level football teams so is this team

notably better than that and the advanced stats would say maybe not now again it's a real thing that they have stepped up and they have had this kind of internal self-belief and they've played really well in the big moments. And that's what's allowed them to win so many close games. But is it sustainable is the question that we are going to find out on Thursday, the following week against the Jets, kind of the rest of the season. And they set themselves up in a position where they're going to make the playoffs. But do they have a ceiling and like a ceiling to make a run to a championship and I just I have a lot of questions about that after what I saw on Sunday it was just it was reminiscent of a lot of the kind of Zimmer era games and I was talking to you about this the other day like the just the games where the

pressure rate from the defense is so kind of severe that you can't get anything going on offense. It was like the week four game against the Browns last year where they scored on the opening touchdown. They didn't score after that. They lost 14-7. It happened a bunch in 2019. My first Vikings road game I ever covered was in Chicago,

I think week four of that year. They lost 16-6. It was just every play I was like oh Akeem Hicks and Khalil Mack are in the backfield after one and a half seconds they couldn't do anything like there was no way you could they got the ball and you're like this is a three and out with a sack like it just there's nothing you can really call as Kevin Stefanski or Clint Kubiak or Kevin O'Connell or whoever to really mitigate. There's ways you can try to get around it cleverly, but at the end of the day, if you can't protect it,

then it happened in week 16 when they're trying to beat the Packers to stay alive in the NFC North race, and it was the same things. Darius Smith dominated them, and then it happened in the divisional round against the 49ers, and you're like, this team just isn't close to to beating the overcoming the elite defensive lines that you have to overcome to win a Super Bowl and look at who they are going to play in the NFC playoffs this year they will have to potentially play all three of but at least a couple of San Francisco who's been really good recently with Nick Bosa and their front's always good. Dallas, who you just lost to by 37.

And Philly, who you lost to by 17 earlier this season. Like, do they have the ability to beat those teams specifically in terms of protecting Kirk Cousins? And I'm not sure. And this season's been a lot of fun and it's going to continue to be fun. But I wouldn't be super confident in that ceiling right now. I guess in my mind, I don't want to say the story is written because I think that it could go three ways.

I think it could go where Kevin O'Connell says, you know what? And he started to do this a little earlier this season, but then got away from it in these last couple of games where he says, you know what? Call he started to do this a little earlier this season, but then got away from it in these last couple games where he says, you know what? Calls up Gary at the ranch and says, Gary, you're a legend. You're the GOAT, okay? Teach me some boots.

Because their boots have been horrendous. Like, whatever Gary was doing on the bootlegs, they're not doing because they get blown up almost every single time. And the Vikings have always had bad guards, yet those play actions worked so well for Gary Kubiak. I think it's because you have to set them up throughout a game and give different looks and then really be ready to hit that big one.

You can't just be like, bootleg, bootleg. You have to really, and then somebody told me this, I think it was Steve Berline told me this about Gary Kubiakak because that he was really brilliant at knowing how to set up a team and sort of make them think like oh this is this is a tendency they only run out of this look or that look and then boom hit him with like the the deep play action it hasn't worked at all um i think that o'connell has realized that points that he really has to run the ball to set them up in good situations but their run game has been famine famine feast so much to the point where they are ending up in a lot of those third downs.

And he keeps saying it like we need to run. We need to run. But their running game has been it's funny to look at see five yards of carry to like there's a few of those carries that are really pushing that yards per attempt as opposed to a more consistent running game, which i think they've had in the past but how he adjusts from here because i think that there was an initial adjustment and then they kind of went back to what he wanted to do after they won and now they need to go back to it like look ben ellison might have to be in the game johnny munt i'd have to be in the game c CJ Hamm played two plays, two plays. Like that's one of your best blockers.

I mean, you, you, you're going to have to use some of these dudes that can block because you're not going to be able to do it. And if they go out against the Patriots and that's what they do, and it's two tight ends and it's a fullback and it's, Hey, Jefferson, go get open deep down the field. We're going to block it up. I, you know, I'll be impressed and I'll think that they can, you know, beat some of these good defenses. Cause I think they'll take the ball away from other teams on defense. And Mac Jones is going to give you the football, Mike White's the starting quarterback of the jets. People ask

me if that was the Vikings hex on other opposing teams. I'm like, I think that's actually a bad break. I think you wanted to face Zach Wilson. Um, but, uh, you know, I, I, I could see that world where O'Connell and it doesn't have to be the boots. I just love the boots. But it could also be exactly what it's been the whole rest of the season, where sometimes you're like, wow, that was a great offensive game from them or sections of games were great. But you're still playing close every week or it could go the wrongest of wrong ways uh and i was looking you know i saw some people tweeting like well this team that won the super bowl they had a bad blowout or that team um the arizona cardinals and los angeles rams both started the season super hot last year i believe the cardinals were eight and one and the rams were seven and two and those

teams went two different directions after a bad blowout. Arizona had a bad blowout against Carolina. They lost five of their last eight, including the playoff game. Los Angeles got it back together. And I don't know which way they're going to go. Well, yeah, I think one of the ones I've seen people cite is the 2020 Buccaneers, who, by the way, the Vikings did not really have a chance against that year. That's another one of those games where Kirk Cousins got sacked six times.

They lost like 38-3 to the Saints or something like that. And then to that game, yeah. Who was their quarterback? There's some slight differences. That's one that I was going to hint at is their quarterback was Tom Brady, and they did not have a negative point differential after that loss. So yeah, it is great. Like the Vikings, I'm sure everyone's seen this stat. The only eight and two team are better through 10 games with a negative point

differential ever. And yes, that happens when you lose by 37 and you've won a bunch of one-score games in a row, but it just kind of speaks to what's going on here and and i'll say this like i'm through 10 games i i believe in kevin o'connell as as a head coach and as an offensive mind as a play caller i think the opening script stuff has been awesome the low red zone execution and the way that he is kind of kind of fooled people with the various eye candy and then kind of found whoever's open in the low red zone execution and the way that he is kind of kind of fooled people with the various eye candy and then kind of found whoever's open in the low red zone and scheme different guys open I think that's been really impressive and a lot of different things have looked good but it's going to take time I mean he hasn't been a play caller for very long this is his first full season

doing it he's still kind of getting used to doing that while being a head coach and getting used to the personnel he has here and it's just the Vikings are not some like top 10 offense which is fine for most of these you don't you don't necessarily need to be when if your defense is going to play well and and create takeaways like it has been um but for Thursday's game like I think they're going to come out and Kevin O'Connell I think even said this, like they're going to run the ball more. And because that – you can't get sacked when you're running the ball. It kind of can help you, if you're doing it efficiently, stay on schedule, mitigate the pass rush a little bit.

And Delvin Cook, I mean, he averaged like six and a half yards per carry in that game. He just ended up only getting 11 carries because the score got so out of hand. And the Patriots are number one in dropback EPA. They're number one in pass defense DVOA. And both of those things aren't just like coverage. They take into account that they're unbelievable with the pressure as well. They're like in the 10 to 12 range in run defense in those advanced metrics, which is still good.

But I think you can run on them a little bit I think that's got to be a big focus for the Vikings early on is you run a little bit and you set that up and then off of that you try to hit some quick passes you try to hit run some play action where you can maybe get some explosives out of that and again like with the Patriots offense which has not been very good this year with Mac Jones and not a ton of explosive weapons like the Vikings might 17 points might be able to win this game so I mean they won 10 to 3 last week on a last second punt return like it wasn't like they were doing anything offensively against the Jets defense which has been really good so I'm I'm very curious to see what that uh what that opening script looks like from Mr. O'Connell.

In retrospect, I think we should have known as soon as they went three and out on that first series with the strip sack, like, this game's over. If you're not scoring on your first drive, this 2022 Vikings team, now they're going to go in a lull for a long time. And they went into a lull for basically the rest of the game. They had one good, decent drive on the second one and couldn't even finish it with a touchdown folks if you're looking for a way to celebrate minnesota's insane football season go to soda stick.com see all the different designs from kirko chains to the gritty to everything Skoll related, SodaStick, S-O-T-A-S-T-I-C-K.com

and use the code PURPLEINSIDER for 15% off your purchase. It reminded me of the game in 2019 where they were at home against the Packers. And I think there was maybe something at the very beginning of the game, like a three and out, you got sacked, whatever, where we kind of went like, oh, yeah, all right. This is probably not going to go their way. I agree. When I saw Parsons beat Derrisson, I was like, oh,

that's a thing that can happen. That's going to be a big problem. And then Derrisson leaving the game, it was definitely over at that point. But it's so funny because with every loss that you can come up up with you always have a well after that this happened and that's why Kirk is still the quarterback I mean because they lost that game in Green Bay in 2019 and I think all of us felt like they were going to a funeral in New Orleans and then they fumbled on the first drive in New Orleans and it's like oh this is like start the party for uh you know bourbon street or whatever which bourbon maybe a little like overrated bourbon

street not overrated new orleans but bourbon street so it's a maybe too long too wild touristy yeah it's a good way to put it it's not the best part of new orleans i would say i i agree i agree and but anyway that's not the point the point is just I thought that like we were going to be able to have our stories done by halftime it turned out to be one of Kirk Cousins best games as a Minnesota Viking and he leads a game-winning drive and everything else that happened that day so every time you think like oh the stats are saying this or whatever else then there's sort of this, Oh, but it's the other thing. And I can't figure out whether we're in the open. It's the other thing as in you started eight and

two and open. It's the other thing, or the offense hasn't been as good as we expect. And Oh, it's the other thing. They actually are good. So I'm in a very funny spot with this, but I do think we should talk about the Patriots offense, which is a horror show. There's literally one concern, and it's the only one concern, is that they actually can run the football. And what Dallas did to the Vikings, I mean, look, if you give Mac Jones a running game, he's going to succeed. If you give him time to throw, he's going to succeed.

And I do think the Zedarius thing is concerning. When there were goal line plays and so forth where he was out. And I think he played 25 snaps the other night. They didn't pull their, but they can run the football. I look at this offense as being yes, yes, they are bad. And yes, they did only score three offensive points. They also did it against the Jets defense who might be the number three defense in the NFL. If Dallas and New England is number one, the Vikings don't have that. It's also Duke Shelley season. Yeah, it's the Vikings have done a great job. I mean, maybe it's luck, but I think there's some some real legitimacy to the whole Tyler Williams sports science thing. They've stayed healthy all year, but it happens to every team and you can do all the

sports science you want and all the voodoo you want you're gonna get in guys injured in an NFL season when it gets to November late November and they it was just kind of jarring how much they felt every single absence of a key player in that Cowboys game Like Cameron Dantzler would have helped because Andrew Booth Jr. was not playing well. And I think that's maybe a little bit concerning at this point. I don't want to like react too much to a game and a half from a second round rookie who's had some injuries as well, but they could have used Cameron Dantzler. They could have even used a Caleb Evans at cornerback in that game. They really could have used Christian Derisaw staying in the game. They really could have used Alvin Tomlinson in the middle who's now missed three in that game. They really could have used Christian Derrissaw staying in the game. They really could have used Dalvin Tomlinson in the middle, who's now missed three in a row.

And my sense is, and I think they got, they'll release the final injury report later on Wednesday, where we haven't seen that yet while recording this, but my sense is Dalvin Tomlinson probably won't play because they've just talked so much about the long-term view with him and wanting to he's so important to what they do wanting to have him back 100% for a stretch that is they still got seven games left and then they hope they have a few games in in January that some real meaningful ones um so I think the kind of the balance of hey we could really use him in this patriots game i think that'll probably be overruled by hey well let's give him another 10 days to really recover and not

stress his calf which is kind of a tough soft tissue thing and let's have him ready to go for that jets game which it's just been the first couple weeks you were like all right they've overcome the tomlinson absence well enough. And James Lynch and Kyrus Tonga and Jonathan Bullard and all these guys are playing fairly well. But this game really, the Cowboys game really exposed that they missed Tomlinson because the Dallas was just running the ball really effectively. And then that was just that was setting up everything else in those those explosive plays. And so the injury report will be something definitely to watch this week. Yeah, Duke Shelley might end up making his, I don't know.

I think he started some games for the Bears. His first start with the Vikings because Evans is in concussion protocol, and you don't know. It's kind of unpredictable if he's going to be able to get off of that. And then Booth hasn't practiced at all this week with a knee so yeah duke shelly season i'm here for it and after that perry nickerson i think is the next man up um duke shelly got a game ball by the way for that in buffalo i noticed it in his locker the other day that uh that he had i mean for the i mean it's a hell of a play for sure i wonder if that's the fewest the snaps to game ball ratio we've ever seen because he played three snaps but

if one of them is a game-saving pass breakup give give the man a game ball i love it he deserves it uh but that is something that you know the patriots have no receivers that scare you but if it you know duke shelly can't rise to the occasion again, when he's asked to play more than three snaps, I remember Rick Spielman used to talk about this and not everything Rick said would drive me nuts. He was talking about categorizing like players as in, there are some players who are of course, mega stars and they're going to play all the time and get huge contracts.

And then there are guys who could play 17 games and you can rely on them. And, you know, maybe 12 of those games are good out of 17. And then there are guys who could play in a pinch who you really feel fine about. That's like Jonathan Bullard, James Lynch. Okay. He's got to play for a game, but they'll get exposed over a number of games. And, uh, Rick thought that you could start that player on the offensive line every year. And every year they got exposed the same. I mean, the same thing is happening. I think, you know, when they finally faced the team that really knew how to run the football and really emphasized that, then they were able to run successfully.

And I think, so I looked at it and all the successful runs came up the middle. They were just pounding that up the middle. And I think that new england will not miss that and that's where it's like this game just screams just grind fest of the vikings trying to short pass and stay on the field and new england hammering away what uh what should we think of mac jones though because on this show this very show will mac jones became a controversial figure last year everyone was talking about it the whole world cnn they were there they parked the van outside of my house and they were like here lies the man or i guess not lie here exists the man who uh said maybe the viking should draft

mac jones everybody look at him and zoomed in on my window. Um, but, uh, you know, last year he was so good for them in his rookie year and was kind of declared the winner of the here's all the quarterbacks who were drafted contest. And this year it's been a miserable experience for him. He does have the worst coach in the national football league as his office of coordinator as a completely baffling thing. But I don't think we can completely excuse that for his poor season. What are we supposed to think of him? And as we relitigate all the time, should you have drafted this guy?

Should you have drafted this guy? Hey, maybe trading up for Justin Fields would have been a good idea, but four weeks ago, maybe it wouldn't, or you know what I mean? Like it's, it is amazing how we're always kind of redoing this whole thing.

And with Mac Jones, he is at a serious down point from where he was last year. Yeah. The whole, the whole quarterback, the 2021 quarterback class is really interesting because Zach Wilson gets benched just now. And,

and Justin Fields looked like unplayable for the first I don't know 16 games of his career and now he looks really really good with the with the running and kind of the dual threat and everything that he showed at Ohio State and Mac Jones had a good season and he looked like a perfectly solid game game manager kind of guy and and I understood the argument that you that you made where it's it's not necessarily about him being a big upgrade from kirk cousins it's about him being similar but costing you a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the price and that makes sense and now it's like well he still has to kind of be good and now i'm not sure if he is because he got benched for

somebody named bailey zappy uh which was a fun little time of the season in New England where they're talking about Zappy hour and everyone was like oh he's guys so good and then he's not good either so they went back to Mac Jones and yeah Matt Patricia as the offensive coordinator it's kind of all all a nightmare there on that side of the ball for the Patriots but yeah I don't I don't know how we should feel I think Mac Jones is going to carve out a perfectly fine long career in the NFL and I think probably a good amount of that will be as a as a solid starter and maybe some of that will end up being as a backup if a team ends up with a higher ceiling option and and that's fine and and for for what he's doing right now he's he's on a rookie contract with the Patriots and if he's able to kind

of get back to the level that we saw him at last year that's a really good asset to have it's just he hasn't been there this year and the Vikings are going to try to make his life really miserable with with Z'Darrius Smith and Daniel Hunter and then kind of their experienced guys on the back end and I was just looking at the over under for this game is 42 and a half which is pretty low for an NFL game it's not the lowest this week because the Bears and the Jets are below 40 but I would even lean towards the under on that because that requires like 21 2121 or something similar. I mean, you can't game can end 21-21.

I guess it could. But like I could see this being 17-14 type of thing. And I know I probably lose some credibility. I also said that against the Bills. And then it was a 33-30 game. But in my defense, it went to overtime. And there was some wildly big plays that happened in that game an 81 yard touchdown run I I just would be surprised not not no official gambling advice

here but I would be surprised if this is anything resembling a shootout with the Patriots the Vikings kind of offensive line against the Patriots defense being such a strength against weakness for for New England and then the Vikings defense has mostly played well this year not in terms of yardage allowed but in terms of big plays take away sacks and you're going it's an offense that struggled so yeah I I don't I don't know what's gonna happen in this game I think both teams as usual are going to try to kind of get the run game going early and I think whichever team is more successful with that is going to try to kind of get the run game going early. And I think whichever team is more successful with that is going to have kind of a leg up.

And then I'm just excited to watch the whole chess match, especially when the Vikings have the ball, with O'Connell trying to get inside the mind of his former kind of mentor, Bill Belichick, and all these different things. And yeah, it's going to be fun. I think that losing 40-3 ramped up the intrigue of this game tenfold like that.

I think going into it, had they lost by seven, we would have gone like, well, you know, even if they lose this one, but they really should win this one and everything else. And it really brought a lot of things kind of crashing back to earth after what happened last week on the Mac Jones thing. I think that what we see in the NFL is that there's a handful of quarterbacks who you pay all the money. And even if your roster slips, they're going to keep you being good. Or you know that you're rebuilding around them regardless, you know, either way. Right. And then there's a huge chunk of quarterbacks where everything is circumstance. If you give them an amazing circumstance, they will be good. If you give them a horrendous circumstance, they will be horrendous.

And I think that like Cousins is the absolute highest end of that in the NFL. Like even we're seeing with Derek Carr, where horrendous circumstances and even Derek Carr has been pretty bad. But Mac Jones is is is that guy like, and, and we knew that when they were drafting him, but the argument was not that he was going to be better than this or that, or the other player. It was with the rookie quarterback contract. If he's even just that guy, you can give him everything. And the Patriots did not give him everything. They gave him Kendrick Bourne. They gave him Devante Parker, two highly paid tight ends for only God knows why. I mean, it just doesn't make sense.

And then the worst coach in the league. I mean, they just completely bungled this in year two, yet they're still finding a way to win football games. But if you give him Justin Jefferson and you give him a bootleg offense and you give him the running game with Delvin Cook and all those things. Well, maybe we're talking about something different and then twenty five million dollars or thirty million dollars in cap space. I mean, you're just talking about you're talking about completely different ballgames with those two things. So the way that I was looking at it initially, that equation includes Justin Jefferson, not Kendrick Bourne. So I think that this has been for Belichick,

whose maybe mistakes as a general manager were all painted over by that all-time great quarterback he had for a really long time. It's been exposed a little bit recently over the last couple of years. But still, much respect to Bill Belichick and his defense going up against the Vikings. So this will be very, very intriguing on Thursday night. So now, just go for it. Just put it on record.

Doesn't matter now. We blew our record so badly, it doesn't matter now. Yeah, I think I'm down to seven and three because I was like, all right, I'm done. I'm done picking this team to lose they just they just don't lose they find ways to win and then they lost pretty pretty badly and uh now i i still i don't exactly know where to go in this game but i am going to just kind of gamble and believe that this Vikings team is nowhere near as bad as it looked on Sunday. And I think that they're going to be able to do just enough on offense.

And Kevin O'Connell is going to figure something out where he can win a game with Blake Brandel at left tackle. And I'm going to take the Vikings to win mostly because I just, yeah, it's, it's Matt Patricia and it's this Patriots offense. That's such a train wreck. And I think the Vikings will be able to, to kind of just, just slug it out and, and find a big player to whether it's Dalvin cook on the ground or

Jefferson through the air, TJ Hawkinson, or like a Harrison Smith interception that he returns for 50 yards and flips the field or, or something along those lines. And I'm going to take the Vikings. I was, well, I'm going to say like 1713. But I think that's right where that's right where my head is at as well. Yeah.

I think that's like the Patriots defense is all it's cracked up to be. However, they have really gotten fat off some Zach Wilson this year with some of their statistics. So I am going to say the Vikings are just the better football team and that they bounce back here and that this ends up being a big win that we look doing here with the whole primetime Kirk Cousins narrative and everything we saw on Sunday. But I think it makes sense. I think this team, they won eight games for a reason. It wasn't a complete fluke. It was sort of fluky, but it wasn't a complete fluke. I think they're a good football team.

I think they're a better football team than the New England Patriots, even if DVOA would disagree. And I think the building is just going to be rocking at home i mean there it's always rocking at home but at night with those the purple and yellow alternate uniforms on like it's going to be on a holiday it's it's going to be pretty awesome all right and one one quick question for you though is what is your uh what's your favorite Thanksgiving side dish? So this is always hard for me because I don't really care about Thanksgiving because I mean, like I said, I mean, you know, the family, you know, we don't really do a big Thanksgiving. There have been years where we've ordered pizza before on Thanksgiving. It's just like turkey is fine. Ham is fine. Whatever you like is fine. I will say that if there's one thing that really shines to me, that would be pumpkin pie is the only time during a year. I'm not like

on a Tuesday in July being like, Oh, I feel like pumpkin pie. It's only the one time per year. And then growing up, my grandma made a heck of a pumpkin pie every year we would get it she would make me an extra one because she knew we liked it so all the other foods take or leave stuffing i don't know it's fine i don't know i'm not gonna like i don't want to fight anybody about it like it's fine you like whatever you like but i will i will stand for the pumpkin pie okay i like it good to know you're not going to say any words you just wanted to know mine well okay i will say that my i mean i'm a huge mashed potatoes and gravy guy i but pumpkin pie

is really good i like apple pie with ice cream that's kind of the the dessert staple for uh for thanksgiving but i don't know i'm excited for. I'm going to see my family for a little lunch with my parents and watch the frisky lions try to keep up with the Bills and then get in Cowboys-Giants, and then we got our game. It should be a fun day. Yeah, very, very, very much so. Looking forward to it and looking forward to breaking it down here with all of you, as we always do after the game.

So, Will, thanks for your time. Thanks, everybody, for listening, and happy Thanksgiving.