Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - What are the odds the Vikings land the No. 1 seed?

Episode Date: December 25, 2024

Matthew Coller and Manny Hill talk about the Vikings chances to take the top seed in the NFC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TD Direct Investing offers live support, so whether you're a newbie or a seasoned pro, you can make your investing steps count. And if you're like me and think a TFSA stands for Total Fund Savings Adventure, maybe reach out episode of Purple Inside. I'm Matthew Collar here, back inside the home studio and maybe looking a tad tired, but that's okay. Took the red eye home from Seattle last night, but you know what has carried me on? The energy of a 13-2 football team, the Minnesota Vikings, looking at the Packers playing tonight, watching and waiting for the Packers for next week, where the Vikings will have a chance to win two more and take the entire conference. You just can't say it enough what a season it has been for the Minnesota

Vikings. So what are the odds that they actually pull it off? We'll talk about that. Manny Hill will join in just about 30 minutes and we'll discuss with him. Manny has picked the schedule all season long. And I mean, there were probably one or two times he got to 13. I don't know if he ever got to 14 wins and most certainly no one got to 15 wins with the Vikings, but that's where they stand. So how confident are you? What do you think the odds actually are? And feel free to jump in with questions, comments, thoughts. It's a great time in our lives to talk about football. So whatever's on your mind with the Vikings, happy to answer it.

And I wanted to actually bring up something to start the show that I don't think we really talked about at all on the post game show. And I've got a couple other podcasts that'll be coming to you with Brian Murphy and Jeremiah Searles that we really didn't discuss either this one particular subject. But I want to talk about Dallas Turner and his role in the defense against the Seattle Seahawks, because I was checking out the PFF grades from the day. I always do that after every single game, go to PFF, see what they thought of the performances. They'll have a much better feeling on whether a guard played well or not than myself. And they gave, and it was an unlimited snap count, Dallas Turner, the highest grade on the Minnesota Vikings defense for yesterday's game.

Again, this is not as many snaps as someone like Andrew Van Ginkle, who did miss a couple tackles, but had a remarkable day and was their most valuable player for the game. But Dallas Turner stepping up to the plate. Once again, it has been a weekly occurrence that he has found a way to make a big play and comes through with the interception. It brought me back to something that we talked about when he first got here. I was trying to describe what I had seen from Dallas Turner in terms of his athleticism. And I remember saying, you know, he can actually catch the ball, which there aren't too many defensive ends. And I know he's an

outside linebacker, but there's not too many players who rush the passer that I think can actually catch the ball. So this guy, he's so smooth, you know, maybe he could play tight end or something in a different life. And he ends up getting that huge interception in the game. He got, I think another pressure, a couple of tackles. They moved him to linebacker at one point, he was coming off the edge and just did a really good job for this team. And I was curious after a couple of games where he had shown up, like, are we going to see more of this? Or is this just sort of a, Oh, the guy kind of popped a little bit because he's talented, but that's not really going to be a thing for them. And I

think it may have been after Indianapolis where he got a good amount of plays because Andrew Van Ginkle got banged up. So he goes into that Colts game. He makes a couple of stops. He gets maybe a good pressure in that game. And there were YouTubers doing film things, look at Dallas Turner and all that sort of stuff. Like, okay, let's, let's see how this progresses a little bit more as we go forward. And I think we're ready to say that at this moment, the Vikings have themselves a valuable role player in Dallas Turner, because now we can go back to multiple weeks where he has made some sort of difference making play against the Atlanta Falcons after he hit Kirk Cousins. It was a different Kirk Cousins for quite a while in that game after Turner laid him out.

And then a big sack against Caleb Williams, one of those confidence building type of sacks, also showing that flash of what they expect him to be is somebody that has a bevy of moves or can get low and go around tackles and take down a quarterback the way he did against Caleb Williams. And then he comes through with the interception here. He's grown and grown each week. He's taken the right approach. And when I talked to him a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like he was on that right mental track. And I'm sure that that was not easy early in the season to not have as big of a role as you would have expected when you're drafted in the first round. And then he's really come along to the point where he's a significant contributor now

from somewhere between 15 to 25, 30 plays in a game, depending on the health of the team. But you know that now if someone does go down or someone is limited, that Dallas Turner can step to the plate, which is a development for this defense. And even just the different things that have happened because of injuries have forced them to show that they have depth. And that even goes for Theo Jackson, making a play Levi Drake Rodriguez, making a couple of plays in that game.

And Josh Metellus, I think Josh Metellus over these last few weeks might be their best overall defensive player because he has found his groove again. He last year, you recall that when he first jumped into that role, that multi-dimensional role, he was very, very good. And I think that opponents didn't know how to game plan for him or what to do with him. And then this year, there just weren't early on in the season as many splash plays. Well, that's returned for Josh Metellus as he's gone along and had to fill in for Ivan Pace and has had a very valuable role.

So just wanted to make that point about Dallas Turner and the overall depth that they were not really rotating a lot of players early in the season, but the adversity, if you will, that they've been tested with here has forced them to prove that they do have depth and they do have guys that can make plays behind just the starters. And Dallas Turner was able to do that. So for him, it's not just a good sign for the future, but it's also these last few games, they may need an interception. They may need a rush around the edge or a big tackle where he sets the edge like he did against the Falcons a couple of times or whatever it might be tracking

down someone in space, making a play on special teams, which I thought was a really good job against the Chicago bears. So all those things have kind of come together for Dallas Turner. And I expect that we're going to continue to see him as a part of this thing. And one of the discussions that happens all the time about the NFL in the playoffs is how you're playing when you enter the postseason. Now, I think that it might be overstated to some extent, because if you're playing bad teams at the end of the year, then you're probably just going to beat them and, oh, well, this team's actually good.

But yeah, they played a couple of tanking teams who gave up or whatever. But I think that you need to use a microscope for that. So how are you actually playing? What are your strengths and weaknesses going into the playoffs? And they've been playing a little shorthanded on the defensive side and have had some receivers beat them. Gino Smith made some great plays, but this other part of it with Dallas Turner over the last few weeks and so forth, and even Jalen Redman, who I would expect is going to come back next week. That seems likely based on what Kevin O'Connell said.

Harrison Smith will not be out long. He's definitely going to play in this game against the Green Bay Packers. So they will be healthier than they've been before and now have found out some things about themselves on that side of the football and the other part of it on the offensive side for how they're playing going down the stretch and into the playoffs. Sam Darnold, that moment against Seattle of him having the headset go out, finding a way to scramble for a first down, seeing Justin Jefferson firing the ball to him for a touchdown to go ahead and win that game. These are the types of things that I don't know that he was doing for the entire season. As good

as he was, he wasn't quite on that level of full control of the offense to the point where they can go off the script and still find a way to succeed the way that he and Jefferson did or the way that he handled, uh, you know, just, uh, that, that difficult moment. So this team, how it's playing and the things that are coming together are, I think relevant when we try to figure out what the odds are that the Vikings can go 15 and two, what the odds are that they can go deep into the post season. So let's, let's hear some thoughts.

What do you think? What are you feeling like the chances are of the Vikings going deep into the playoffs? Now that you've seen this big of a sample? And what are some of the things, the factors you're thinking about? Why would you say yes? Why might you be concerned? Of course, yesterday, anytime we're midway through a game, it seems like the game is over. Kevin O'Connell should be fired. Sam Darnold, don't pay him, get him out of town. That's all the reaction throughout the middle of a game. So hopefully if any of you were those people in comment sections, you've had some time to take a deep breath and just look at where they stand now

in the midst of one of the best Viking seasons of all time. We can say that because even if they lose out, it's still one of the best Viking seasons of all time. And, uh, you know, how many times have they had 13 wins even since 1998? And the other side of that is if they get to 15, then there's no debate about it whatsoever. This is truly, uh, in that category of being one of the great seasons in Vikings history. So two weeks to kind of figure that out. Manny is going to pop in in about 15 minutes to pick the schedule, which is two games, but I've got all the games up in the ESPN playoff machine in the NFC. So we're going to pick those and we're going to look at a couple of different scenarios. Of course, if the Vikings just win these two games,

then you have the NFC and we don't have to worry about any scenarios whatsoever. But if they lose against the Green Bay Packers next week, then we're going to have to try to work out who they might end up playing against based on some of the results. So we'll work on that shortly, but let me get to your questions and

comments here. Wally says, 25% seems right to me. They definitely are still underdogs to do it, but what would not put anything past them? Skoll. 25% feels right. And I did have someone reach out and explain to me after I struggled on the podcast the other day about how math works in terms of dividing 50-50 types of games and what are the chances that you could have three coin flips work out three times in a row or whatever, like beheads three times in a row. Well, that's kind of what the Vikings need here against Seattle,

considering the desperation of the Seattle Seahawks and considering the weather and where they were at the environment, how that team had some solutions up front with some very good players, a really good quarterback who can make a lot of plays. That was a coin flip type game. I mean, I felt that the Vikings were the better team going into it, but the circumstances and short week with Monday night football pointed a little bit against them in that direction, which to me made it a 50, 50 proposition.

And I think that this one against the Packers is probably close to that with a little bit lean toward the Vikings, just a, just a bit, but a little because they're at home and the Packers do have a preseason game tonight against the Saints, but they still have to play against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night football. That means a shorter week to prepare for Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and all that for the Green Bay Packers. And they have to go on the road. The Vikings have been rolling. The Packers, if they win tonight, will have been

rolling as well. So it's close. It's close to a 50-50 type of game. But the Vikings, having beaten the Packers already this year, you would give the edge there. And then with Detroit, Dan Campbell is going to play as starters no matter what. We know that. We've seen him do that in the past. If the Lions are to potentially lose next week against San Francisco and the Vikings win, there is still a chance that the Lions would end up tying the division and winning it anyway. So the scenarios do lean a little bit in the Lions' favor. If they were to be tied, then the Vikings lose out on that tiebreaker if that came to

fruition. If the Vikings won and then Detroit lost and then Detroit beat the Vikings in the final week and they end up with the same record, then Detroit ends up getting the division. So if both of the teams win and then they go into Detroit, that one is a little less on the 50% side because you're going there. They've got a great offense. They beat your last time. So I think it does even out to about a 50, 50 and 50 50 overall uh over the next two weeks so uh Gus Bus says he's got a little higher than 25 with both opponents having a short week heading into the game it'll be difficult but I have confidence that they can do it with what they've shown so far yeah that is uh certainly

true that they have a lot of confidence going into these two games. Well, you said you were the one with confidence, but they're also the ones with confidence when they've won this many games in so many different ways. And they have such a high level of buy-in to their leadership. They have so many playmakers that at the biggest times you are getting key interceptions, key sacks, key pressures, key 40-yard receptions. If there's anything that's going to hold them back at all, it's just that these two teams have some things on offense that the Vikings have struggled with on defense. They were good against Seattle against the run and did not let Kenneth Walker run all over them, but Green Bay and Detroit are different level when it comes to running the football.

They both have really excellent quarterbacks. They have tons of playmakers that they can get the football to. And the Vikings have had some issues when it comes to that. Love is more likely to turn the ball over than Jared Goff. And Goff has just had no problems with Brian Flores' defense at any point that they've played against each other. So how is Brian Flores going to adjust if that game does end up being for the conference?

The only sad scenario for the Vikings, and still it would be in the midst of a great season, but if Detroit beats San Francisco and the Vikings lose to the Packers, then I'll be doing the week 18 post game from here and not traveling to Detroit because that game won't mean anything. And the Vikings will be locked into that five seed and Detroit will be locked in as well. That's the worst case scenario really is if the Vikings don't win and Detroit

does win for next week. And that's also just speaks to the percentages is that's not an unrealistic outcome. I mean, that could very well happen, especially considering how Jordan Love had no problem seeing the field last time against Brian Flores' defense. They're a lot better now. I just mean Love was not intimidated by the atmosphere the last time against Brian Flores' defense. They're a lot better now. I just mean Love was not intimidated by the atmosphere the last time those two played. So both quarterbacks that they're going to have to beat are top-notch type of players. I was thinking about the quarterbacks they played throughout this season and what it says about them though because they have not played too many backup quarterbacks or even quarterbacks that are just horrendous there's a couple Mac Jones they got away with that one

he's horrendous Joe Flacco horrendous hard to say what Anthony Richardson would have done I don't think Anthony Richardson beats them though the way that he was playing and his confidence down and the, when they faced Kirk cousins was relevant, but Gino Smith, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams is very talented twice. And they have a one time gave up some yards to him. The other time made him look pretty bad, but this hasn't been one of those years where the Vikings just play all bad quarterbacks and they kind of luck out and have a top defense because of it, or teams with a bunch of injuries when they face them. It has been a legit 13 and two. I have not felt at all really throughout this season like it was some sort of stumbled backwards into this type of season. And with a game like on Sunday

against Seattle, that was a win where they had to outplay a good and desperate team once again to come away with the win. The wins being close, if you mix that in with 21 point win, 18 point win, and you have the point differential which they do right now then okay well you're always going to have to win close games in the nfl that's we can't look at every close win and just say oh that was that was uh luck that was silly that doesn't count no it it does and you're always going to play close games against good teams you're how many teams around the league even look at washington and philly do you ever see against against good teams. How many teams around the league, even look at Washington and Philly, do you ever see against two good teams that are just one team destroys the other one,

has an easy time of it, wanders home? It doesn't happen that often in the NFL. And that's why most teams point differentials that are really good hover around 100. How many points per game is a plus 120 point differential, but there's only two teams that are better than the Vikings right now in that category. So on the NFC side, anyway, a little bit of a tangent there, but just thinking about the confidence you have in them, all those things are factors. It's not like they haven't played any good quarterbacks. They're playing kind of another version of Gino Smith, but better in Jordan Love. And then Jared Goff, a guy that they're extremely familiar with.

So they have been tested by a lot of really good quarterbacks throughout this season and still have a very good and capable defense of winning them games. I shot you 99. Do you think the Vikings have to treat the next two weeks like one and done playoff games where losing is not an option because losing the next two games wouldn't hold them well in playoff success for this team? Yeah. I mean, I don't think you really do a whole lot different though. I mean, yeah, of course there's desperation to win these games because the one seed is such a great prize and the five seed is an enormous and ridiculous penalty for not winning

your division that you have to go on the road. At the same time, I don't really know what you do differently. It's not like Kevin O'Connell would coach any differently than he has before, or they would use players differently. They were before, or they would use players differently. They were never going to cruise to the end anyway. And even in 2022, they still played starters for a large percentage of their final game against Chicago to get their 13th win in 2022 going into the playoffs. So I don't think O'Connell is a don't play any of your starters type of guy. They're always doing everything they can. So it's not a different approach as far as how you're

coaching with the one and done playoff games, but that's also not the reality. I mean, they can lose and they could go and have the fifth seed and play Atlanta. And you'd feel pretty darn good about that matchup. Even tennis, Tampa Bay. I mean, the way that Tampa Bay played against Dallas, the way they played against Carolina. I mean, they're a pretty flawed football team with probably a middle of the road head coach. You would pick the Vikings on the road. I mean, it's, you're going to have a chance. It's just what's that track look like? And the difference is enormous. Um, but there's no actionable thing that they could do. I, well, if you treat it like

one and done playoff game, do you just throw it to Jefferson more? Like they're going to throw, they're going to try to win. Like these two games are huge divisional match-ups and they're going to do everything they can. Um, but their odds of going to the Super Bowl are very different. Very different. I would put them if they were to be able to get that one seed, you'd put those odds at what, like 40%, like a really high level of percentage if they were to get that one seed. And if not, it's much more of a coin flip between four teams and then maybe some sort of outside,

somebody gets crazy hot type of thing. But if it's the one seed, I'm putting the Vikings as the Super Bowl favorite with a bullet there because they would have to win such hard games at the end of the season, prove themselves, have home field, all that stuff. They would have a very good shot.

But otherwise, then it's going to take a little bit of things going their way to get through and Sam Darnold playing crazy good football and so forth. JP says, has the offense been stagnant during parts of games or is it us just complaining about what isn't there? Sometimes, yeah. I mean, I go back and forth on things like this because this offense does not generally have a lot of three and outs they did against the Seattle Seahawks a couple of times, but it's also a defense that has a lot of talent, a lot of talent, and their coach is a defensive coach. They've got

good corners. They've got good rushers. They were able to slow down the run. They were able to win some matchups up front against the, especially Garrett Bradbury had a tough time in this game against the powerful rusher that they put right over him. And that's always some tough matchups, but on the whole, the numbers on this offense are just good. They're not 1998 good as far as how far ahead they are than everybody else, but that usually just doesn't happen in the NFL today. There's a handful of teams that are all pretty equal. They're all run well. They're all coached well, but when you look at their offensive production, how many points per game they average, what their passing expected points added is, their rushing once again is kind of mediocre

and it's just there. Aaron Jones has done a good job this season, but as far as a rushing attack, it's always going to be secondary for this Vikings team. But the offense as a whole produces points on a regular basis. I mean, there isn't anything to look at it and go, wow, there's a major problem here with the Vikings offense. They convert their downs pretty well that, you know, and so forth, but they are not the best offense in the league. They're not unstoppable. They're not some offense that has just run through everybody. They're more like a top five to seven offense. And in the conference, Detroit's going to be better. And Philadelphia as a complete offense might also be better. And that's just where you're going to have to live. They are, I think, yeah, when you say

consistent, I mean, if they get it, there's been consistent, I mean, if they get, it's, there's been a couple times where if they get one more first down, then they do start to run away from a team. And it hasn't always been there when they've had that opportunity or they've made some mistakes. I mean, you go back to last time they faced green Bay, the red zone interception, there's been a couple of fumbles and against Detroit complete one pass, get a first down, go six and oh, and that was the same thing when they got the ball back with two minutes left in the first half, get one first down here and you start running away. Not, they're just not a perfect offense. They have to hit on big plays and we've known that. And they did that yesterday, but they've gotten better over the

recent weeks. And this shows up in the numbers. They have gotten quite a bit better at the shorter passing game. They had a couple of drops in the game that maybe you want TJ Hawkinson to make a catch here. There, there was one that Jordan Addison did not make a play on, which probably hurt the consistency. But I think that as a whole, they're as consistent as pretty much any other offense in the league. It's just that they need big plays. There are some other offenses that will run more. They'll stay on the field more. And it's a little bit different. Let's see.

Gazinkad said it in the premiere earlier premiere of my, uh, conversation with Brian Murphy, which was really good. Um, if the Vikings win next week, then the lions game has to be 95% chance to be on Sunday night. Right? Yeah. I would assume so, but I, I don't really know. I mean, people will ask me all the time about, Hey, they're going to flex this game. And my answer is always, I find out when you do, but I don't know how that could not be on Sunday night. If you're talking about a game for the whole conference, but that would make sense to me. And that would be some kind of drama all year long.

I've kind of been saying, Hey, if this happens, wow, that would be something, right? And then it's all just kept happening. And here we are in that position that is so rare in the NFL. And this is why I kind of try to go back to, as people are getting worked up in the middle of games and things like that, go back to, don't forget to soak it in. Don't forget how rare this is. Every one of you can name the seasons that the Vikings won 13 games in the past. Everybody who follows this team knows all of those seasons that were special.

12, 13 win years, years that they went deep in the playoffs. And when the momentum builds up, and especially if it's by surprise, as it was this year, but when the momentum builds up toward the end of the season, it's really a special time. I mean, you've got the holidays, the new year, the big time TV games, Tom Brady showing up. You can have whatever opinion you want about him as a broadcaster. That's another somebody else's podcast to analyze broadcasters because I'm usually at the game, so I don't get to hear much of them. But when it comes to Tom Brady showing up at your stadium for a game, that's the level of big. Sunday night, want you to be on to play for the conference. That's the level of big. How many times have the Minnesota Vikings been that relevant in the last 10 years since

Favre? How many times since Favre have the Vikings been this relevant at the end of the year where the number one broadcast team has to show up and where Sunday night football might be calling saying, we got to move your game to Sunday night because it's that big. I mean, it doesn't happen that often, so relish those opportunities. Gus Bus says, starts with just to play a game, then quietly becomes multiple plays a game.

They eventually just become consistently good. Yeah, I don't know if you're referring to maybe Dallas Turner there or just as a whole, but they have grown in their consistency since they had a couple of games where they weren't on the field and Arizona and Atlanta. This is a point to just make about the Vikings this year that there have been potholes that we have seen in front of us and they, we thought, well, okay, it's going to get them.

This could be a problem. That could be a problem. And they found ways to work around those things. All right, let's bring in Manny Hill to talk about the 13 and two Minnesota Vikings. Manny, I was thinking yesterday because we love to do the history thing and we love to compare these teams. And I remember when they were five and oh, people were asking us, is this going to be like 16 when they fall apart in the second half? And it was like, guys, have you seen the schedule for the

second half? Probably not. But I don't think at that point you were picking them to have 15 which is possible uh after yesterday though after that throw from darnold it wasn't quite the greg lewis throw because that's one of the best throws in the history of the national football league but it had the vibe it had, whoa, what did the quarterback just do? What kind of play did he just make? I think if we were comparing this season to another season in Vikings history, it's probably 2009 and Sam Darnold is far only he's younger and didn't send inappropriate text messages to anybody and so forth.

Former Jets quarterback, though. Right? So just younger and maybe, I mean, he's shown some moxie in these games with his arm that in terms of team strength going into the playoffs, we thought they might be more like a 7 2017 type team where you're not really sure about your quarterback but you got a great defense it's actually the other way the defense is doing its job and the quarterback is driving them into the playoffs which again throw that in the bucket of things we didn't exactly expect to be saying right now

could you imagine just to go back in retrospect a little bit, could you imagine placing 2024 Sam Darnold on the 2017 Minnesota Vikings? I don't know how much Mike Zimmer would have loved that because we see Sam likes to take some chances and push the ball down the field, and Mike Zimmer would kind of lose his mind whenever his quarterback would take a risk

or make a risky throw. But just when you think about how well Sam has played this year. I mean, if you just take this Sam Darnold and just drop that on that 2017 team, it's like, you know, maybe they don't lose to the Lions 14 to 7 at home. And they end up 14 and 2 instead of 13 and 3. And they have home field advantage for the nfc championship game um and then the eagles have to go have to come to us bank stadium who knows how that would have turned out i don't know but yeah this is this is just nuts i i that game first of all that game was fantastic yesterday it was so much fun to watch and of course you

were there so i'd have to imagine the atmosphere out there at Lumen Field was great. But the way Sam Darnold just continues to come through with big plays, I mean, you just can't put a price on this stuff, man. entertaining to watch but then when you factor in what it what he's actually doing for this team and putting this team in a position to contend for a championship this is um this is special stuff and i don't know if sam donald's going to continue to do this beyond this year but i i think for right now i'm enjoying this ride this is a lot And now, you know, this team going on a run to the Super Bowl is a realistic possibility. I mean, and that's something that even maybe even a month ago, I wasn't really sure I wanted to go there yet. I thought this team would be a playoff team and maybe win a game or two. But now this is looking like a team that is, you know, certainly has everything you need to to be a

championship contender this is a lot of fun to watch it has gotten very real uh and it's really the last couple weeks where the if you had a it's getting real meter it would just kind of keep ticking up with each one of these wins and, now it starts to hit the red and is peaking because you can see the finish line. You are two wins away from taking this conference after being able to pull that out. It is an interesting scenario to think about what Mike Zimmer would have felt about Sam Darnold. But I actually think this version of Sam Darnold in this eight game winning streak streak Mike Zimmer would have loved because he hasn't put the ball in harm's way I asked Kevin O'Connell about this today

and O'Connell kind of cited that he's just become more and more comfortable with the offense which I buy I think his chemistry with Justin Jefferson just increasing and increasing is something I buy and his own self focus and improvement. Because if you come out of, and we've seen athletes do this many times, if you come out of Jacksonville with an arrogant attitude, like, well, I didn't do anything wrong. This guy ran the wrong route or whatever else happened. You're not going to fix anything. But Sam Darnold went into that and said, I need, I need to really go back and look closely at what happened here, because if it happens again, it's going to be on me. The reason that this season went down and him protecting the football week after week after

week, he's taken risks, but they're risks that his arm can make. And they're not like wild prayers. And I think that what Mike Zimmer really understood, we, we don't give Mike enough credit sometimes because of just the way it ended. Mike Zimmer is a brilliant football man who is incredible at player evaluation. I saw him do this with, I don't know how many quarterbacks where he we'd ask about the opposing quarterback just to get the evaluation because it always had all these great observations but the thing is we all see the arm we all see the athleticism and with keenum it would drive i think mike zimmer crazy that he would just have didn't have an arm so he would have to kind of throw the ball up and with kirk cousins there wasn't a playmaking element. It had to be there. They

had to draw it up successfully, or it just wasn't going to happen. Whereas with Sam Darnold, you could call that play as Kevin O'Connell, and then it doesn't get blocked up and he just makes it anyway. And this is what we talked about time and time again, because you and I, Manny, we grew up at the same time and this it's just sometimes some things are always in forever right john elway is a great playmaker who's a big giant guy with a big monster arm and when he had great playmakers he won super bowls by making plays and the same thing goes for patrick mah or Josh Allen or all the best quarterbacks. This has existed forever. Armed talent at throwing a football is a pretty dang big deal. And so is athleticism. When you watch games around the league, there's pressure all the time. These,

these guys are nuts over on the other side. You have to have a quarterback who can escape it and doesn't just have strip sacks and games ending because they can't run away from some fat guy and to see Darnold and the way he, there was no hesitation. It was just, the guy came and was like, make it a play. I mean, it's just there with him. It's just there that natural, you know, when you see it, you saw it with Burrow and you've seen it for his whole career.

You've seen it with the top quarterbacks. We can go all through history with all the guys. Ben Roethlisberger is a great example of this, of all these quarterbacks who became great because they had the arm talent combined with the athletic ability to, when things break down, they can do something really special. And that was just toss that one in the bucket of all the times that Sam Darnold has done that this season. I think Mike Zimmer would have appreciated the fact that they didn't have to make a perfect call every time for him to have success.

And think about like the, the, the mental toughness that Sam Darnold has shown this year and the physical toughness as well. I mean, Sam's been banged up a little bit. I mean, he looked like he had a little bit of an ankle. He turned his ankle a little bit on a sack or he got hit or something in yesterday's game. And he was kind of limping. He was a little bit slow to get up and he was kind of limping when he did get up. And when I saw that, I was like uh-oh but then like he stayed in the game and then he goes out and makes that ridiculous throw that play where he

had to use his legs to evade pressure and step up in the pocket and just make a crazy throw to jefferson so i think the the physical talent obviously has been on display but also i think the mental toughness of you know know, getting back on track after the bad Jacksonville game and also just the physical toughness of taking hits. I know he's got what was like a pinky thing with his throwing hand that he's kind of dealing with right now to the ankle. I think, you know, he may have banged up his knee earlier in the season. The physical toughness and the mental toughness too, has just been huge.

And you put all that stuff together and you get the kind of season that he's having. And I mean, you know, he's not going to win the MVP. I think Josh Allen probably has that locked up, but like comeback player of the year. I know Joe Burrow's probably in that conversation too, but he, I hope he gets something for the way he's played this year because it's been um it's been absolutely incredible uh pro bowl maybe uh that's probably uh in the cards for sam darnold but this is it does tie back into something we need to look at which is can the vikings get the

number one seat because sam darnold has been dealing with stuff. He had that ankle thing. I think it was in Chicago where he had to come out for a play. And there was even an ankle thing against the jets where, uh, was that an ankle? No, that was actually got hit the stomach that time, but it was the ankle where he had to come out of the game in Chicago. And I remember O'Connell talking about asking Darnold, like, what's, what's the pain level? Can you go back in? And at least initially he was like, uh, yeah, this really hurts. And so he probably, and anybody who's had ankle injuries before, they know how this works, where once it gets hurt the

one time it kind of gets hurt again and again, and it's maybe more of a pain thing than anything else, but he's been battling that he's been dealing with some sort of hand thing that they were looking at a couple weeks ago when he was throwing the ball a little bit off he could really use that week off in between uh the playoffs to get to 100 and maybe uh you know just uh watch some football and enjoy his time at home so let me uh let's get to some comments and then we'll get to you picking the remainder of the schedule, which is two games,

but we've done this every single week and I've got the playoff machine. So we've got the other scenarios for you to pick as well. And we can go over those. Marley asks pie chart. When does the season end wildcard round divisional round NFC championship game and Superbowl. And Marley's chart is 20% wildcard, 40% NFC championship, 25 divisional

and 15% superb owl Superbowl. How do you feel about Marley's pie chart there? 20% wildcard, 40% NFC championship, 25% divisional, 15% Superbowl. I think that this is a very reasonable pie chart. It would be pretty shocking if they finished their season in the wild card round. The divisional round is realistic depending on who you play and how the seating works. I mean, the, has the bar not been raised to the NFC championship though? Like, am I being greedy here with this season that the Vikings have had?

It does feel like that's where the bar has been raised to after beating Seattle. I like those numbers. I think especially if they can win these last two and sure up that number one seed, I think their chances of making the NFC title game and hosting it obviously at that point are pretty good. You know, obviously, you know, matchups and all that stuff, whoever they would get in the divisional round might play a role in that. But, you know, this, you said it,

like getting that number one seed is absolutely huge. I think it would be huge for Sam Darnold to have an extra week off. Some of the guys on defense that have been a little bit banged up or just guys that have played a lot, a lot of snaps this year. I think that'll be really helpful for all of those guys. Especially some of the veterans on that defensive side of the ball. Yeah, I like that 40% NFC title game. I would even be tempted if they get the number one seat, I would be tempted to maybe bump it up to 50 or 55% or something like that just because they would have that home game in the divisional round

and they'd be well-rested. Yeah, doing it right now with that pie chart has to factor all the different iterations of what could happen. But if we're talking about if they get the one seed, then there's no way you could say anything other than it's above 50% that they would, at least I think so, right? That they would have a chance to go to the NFC championship game because that's just one win. And then the Super Bowl becomes very realistic as well. That's how vital these next two games are to their chances. I think their chances are almost a coin flip of going to the Super Bowl if they get the

number one seed, considering how equal all the teams are and the edge that you get with that. Two, you're just one in a crop and somebody else is going to have that advantage of the week off and no one needs it more than Detroit because of the way that they've been banged up. Semantics question here that I like. Hunter says, what do we mean when we say deep into the playoffs, conference championship, competitive, and divisional round? I have always had an opinion on this, Manny. In all sports, when you say playoff run, we went on a playoff run. For me, that has to go to a conference championship.

If an NBA team wins a single round and then loses in the next round, you did not go on a playoff run. A run needs to be multiples. So in order to, you know, you'd have to win in the wild card and win in the divisional to get to the conference championship. That's how I look at it. If a team wins one round or one playoff game, that's not going on a playoff run. So deep into the playoffs now means getting to the NFC championship.

Yeah. Semifinal, you know, the overall league semifinal. That's the way I've always thought about it. You know that we just saw the Timberwolves do this last last spring. That was a playoff run. You know, they got beat in the conference finals in five games, but that was a playoff run, a seven-game series in the second round with Denver. That's a deep run. The Minnesota Wild, way back in 2003, winning two game sevens on the road in the first and second round in Colorado and Vancouver, and then getting to the conference finals, they got swept by the Ducks, but that was a playoff run. Yeah, I'm with you. If you get out of the first round, okay, cool. But if you get beat in the second round, you know, divisional round in the NFL or the conference semifinals in the NBA or NHL, that's just you got out of the first round to me. That's

not like a deep playoff run. A deep playoff run you it has to actually be like a run that's it's the very definition of of what a run actually is is getting all the way at least to the year to your league semi-final glad we talked about that because i agree uh jay garrett says the offensive line is most concerning green bay front four can really get after the quarterback this is true and we do know that garrett bradbury has his issues with a particular defensive lineman on the green Bay Packers. Luckily for the Vikings, one of their top guys rushes over Brian O'Neill, which over the years has created some really good matchups, but you know, this offensive line, the way that I have viewed these last few weeks, Manny, is there's enough there to do enough. It's not a reason you

win, but it is not a reason you lose. They did not blitz yesterday, which I was a little surprised by because some teams had had some good success with blitzing. They barely ever tried to come after Sam Darnold. But the whole point, if we go through the offensive lines that have gone to the Super Bowl in recent years, I'm sure that there's a few that are just absolutely fantastic. But a lot of times it's like Kansas City patchworking it. And then Mahomes has to make some plays or even Brock Purdy. That offensive line was not perfect. They relied on Brock Purdy to make some plays. Detroit and Philly do have better lines than the Vikings, but they've been holding up. I don't think there's an answer to the issue of the running the football. They had a few

good runs to start the game and then they really didn't stick with it very much. They didn't have a lot of success with it throughout the game. And if they ran on first down and didn't get a big gain, there was zero chance they were running on second down. That's, that's just Kevin O'Connell football though. Kevin O'Connell football always in forever is going to rest on that shoulders of the dude playing QB. That's who they are. It's how it's going to go. It reminds me of Bruce Arians. I probably said that 50 times where it's like, name all them great Bruce Arians running backs. No, you don't do that. You name all the great quarterbacks pushing the ball down the field to great wide receivers or working it down the field on shorter passes where some of Jefferson's were just a little

in route that got them 10 yards, a little out route that got them a first down, something like that underneath to Hawkinson. It has to become a bit of a pseudo run game, the short passing game at times, because your offensive line, isn't just going to push somebody over it and win you a football game. But we have seen them run with some success. I mean, they did against Chicago. They did against Atlanta when it comes to the better teams though, and the better lines, it's going to rely on the quarterback. That's just who the vikings are and i think that they can effectively pass block with anybody enough

to give sam darnold a chance i think as far as the running game goes i think it's just more of for me i think it's more of like all right if you got a big lead in the third and fourth quarter, can you just kind of establish some sort of consistent running game, especially if you've already had some success earlier in the game? Can you run the ball and kind of control the clock at that point and hold off your opponent from making a big comeback and basically put that team away? Otherwise, yeah, I'm with you. Like, this is just not the Vikings are not going to be able to run the ball the way the Eagles have run the ball this year, the way the Ravens have run the ball with with Derrick Henry. I mean, you know, and Saquon Barkley with the Eagles. Aaron Jones has been very good for the most part this year um but you know i think this this running game overall just kind of is what it is and it's not going to be at the level that you know the ravens and teams like the eagles have it as i mean no that team is just you know the packers have kind of run the ball pretty good

with with joff jacobs this year as well it just is what it is there's just not really a whole lot you can do about it and and look you've got a quarterback who has been making plays who has a terrific arm has been able to move around in the pocket when he gets pressured he's able to to sort of get out of that pressure sometimes extend a play and make something happen this is kind of a thing that we were begging the previous quarterback to do for six years that he never really did a whole lot. And now they have a guy that's doing that. So I think you just have to roll with what you got. And I like the Vikings chances to have some success with it. It's worked so far. They're 13 and two. I think your running game has to be at a certain level, which it is for the Vikings. But we saw a Vikings team in 2019 that ran the ball in dominant fashion. And then when they faced

a good defensive line, it was just taken care of. And then they couldn't rely on their passing game. You would a million times out of a million rely on a coach who has a great passing attack and a quarterback throwing every play, then you would hoping you're able to run against the best teams league because they probably are decent to very good at stopping the run. If you've reached the point in the playoffs where you're in the NFC championship or you're in the divisional round, maybe the only team that you can run over is detroit because they have so many injuries but aside from that most teams are going to play they have beasts up front that are not going to let you just hand off and hand off and hand off and we saw that in 19 when they were able to stop delvin cook that offense just completely shut down

and they had no chance and it was sad because they couldn't do anything against san francisco after that well with this team they do have an answer when they don't run because there's a lot of times that they haven't run uh this is an interesting uh comment clifford says i believe 15 and 2 in super bowl appearance this team is legit good vikings norms are being broken all year it's the season to believe what vikings norms manny have been broken all year i thought of a couple of them number one is that the kicker is really good i don't i don't know if that breaks the norm they've had good kickers before who have you know and so will reichert has to make those in the playoffs, most importantly. But they do have a kicker who is as good as anyone in the entire NFL.

What other norms have been broken? The clutch quarterback play. We did see that in 2022 from Kirk Cousins until we didn't in the last game of the season. But I mean, I don't know. I, I kind of think that this has actually checked every box of one of these seasons, the random quarterback check wide receivers are unbelievable. Check it's offense drive in the success check. Usually they have playmakers and stars on defense. We never saw it coming check like i don't know it's been it's been very similar maybe the one thing is that usually in these past years there was somebody else who was having a crazy year and maybe that's detroit but i don't know like the atlanta falcons were 14 and 2 when

they beat the vikings it wasn't like they played some bum team or whatever. I think that the, the teams are more flawed though around the Vikings than they've ever been when they're going into one of these. Farve loses to drew freaking breeze. One of the great quarterbacks to ever step on earth. There ain't no drew breeze in the NFC that they're going to face. I feel like this is about as good as I felt about a Vikings team that is in

the Superbowl conversation that I feel like could go on the road and win a game in the playoffs. Like if they, I think if this team had to go on the road for the NFC Championship game, I feel like if they have to go to Detroit for the NFC Championship game, I have the belief that they can actually go in and do it. That is something that we have not really seen in a long time.

Even 2019, they went into New Orleans and won that game, but I didn't feel great about their chances in San Francisco, even after the dramatic win in the Superdome. And I was proven to be right. I mean, they had no chance. It was over pretty early in that game. It was over. This team, the way it's built with this quarterback playing the way it's playing,

the way he's playing, I should say, you know, the offensive line is holding up well enough. I think, you know, the running game has kind of been up and down, but you have a running back who is very good and is very reliable. You have veterans on defense. This is, this is a team that I think is built to be able to go on the road in an nfc championship environment and win the game and go to the super bowl i guess maybe that's kind of a norm that has that's been broken because it's really been a long time since i've felt like that with a with a vikings team that i think was in full contention i do think that as we've done the pick the schedule stuff which we need to get this the

playoff machine here that baking in the surprise loss for example now it's not possible to have the surprise loss they just never did it and i got a couple of comments yesterday where's manny now that they beat the seahawks he was saying all year although you did change your tune on that game uh last week knowing kind of where the teams were and they did almost lose the game in seattle it was tough you you hit it correctly it just they found a way to come out but they didn't lose to the titans they didn't i was forcing you to pick a random loss that would happen out of nowhere, and it just never happened. And the other part of it too is, and there's these two games that could happen,

but you look at the record of the teams that they lost to. One of them is Detroit. The other one is the Rams. The Rams are 9-6, and Detroit is 13-2. So that is 22-9, and they lost by 12 points and it should have been 10 because yesterday's referees are better at calling a face mask than the referees. I mean, think about that. 10 points is how much they lost and the two teams they lost to have a 22 and nine combined

record. That might be a little different from the past as well, where a lot of times we were going, okay, but they've kind of got that bad loss. They've got that bad loss in them somewhere, right? They could always have that time where they just no show and meltdown. But the O'Connell team had that in 2022 had multiple no shows, multiple meltdowns against good teams. And that's why no one trusted them going into the playoffs i remember bumping into our friend patrick ricey before the giants game at home in the playoffs i said how you feeling pat you think they're gonna win ah they're not gonna win this game no way look at every time they got a big game they collapse and uh mr royce he was correct so you know i mean that just hasn't

been the case uh so we'll see what happens here but let's get to this uh playoff machine let's dial it up here and what we'll do is we'll have you just pick all the nfc games and we'll just pick the bad ones too and we'll do it rapid fire and we'll go through it. Sorry that our heads are in the way. Let me move our heads so people can see right now. It would be Vikings Falcons, which is just funny as hell. There's no other way to describe it.

That if the Vikings were going to play Atlanta and not Kirk cousins in the playoffs, you can't make that up, but here's how our playoff machine looks at the moment. And we'll have you just run through these games and we'll see what we end up getting for, for results. So let's just assume tonight the Packers win and we go forward from there to

week 17. And remember Manny rapid fire. So you don't have to get a huge breakdown of these games. Packers win, and we go forward from there to week 17. And remember, Manny, rapid fire, so you don't have to give a huge breakdown of these games. Detroit and San Francisco, what do you think happens there? I'm going to go San Francisco. Okay, all right. That is a shocker.

I think it'll be a shocker, considering how San Francisco has played lately, including yesterday. Washington and Atlanta. Michael Penix versus Jaden Daniels with playoffs on the line. Woo! Football. Pretty good performance by Atlanta yesterday, but I don't think it'll continue. I'll give the win to Washington. Let's go LA and Arizona. Arizona's been eliminated. They're done.

I'm going to go with the Rams to put them away. All right. Let's go. Giant Giants Colts. Oh, may God have mercy on everyone. So watch that. I'm just going to ignore that one. Eagles and Cowboys.

Eagles. All right. We'll see if Jalen hurts is playing. He's wondering about that. Yeah. Not know if he's playing Seahawks at bears, uh, Seahawks,

Panthers at bucks, bucks. All right. And on to week 18, I don't think I missed any there. We've got Panthers at Falcons. That should be interesting. Panthers are playing some good football lately.

They are playing a lot better. I'll still give that win to Atlanta. All right. Saints at Bucks. Bucks. Seahawks and Rams. Ooh. That's a good one.

Yeah. Might have something to do with something. We'll see. Yeah, I'll go Rams. We've got Arizona and San Francisco does not matter. Chicago at Green Bay. I don't know if this is going to matter or not, but we'll pick it anyway.

Chicago at Green Bay. Green Bay. The Bears have completely punted on the season. It's over. they don't care washington at dallas i'll say dallas okay and i think that is it except for vikings at lions week freaking 18 vikings okay all right man he picks the schedule ends with a bang let me move our heads so everyone can see the whole let's go over the whole nfc side of the playoffs here oh we didn't we didn't pick vikings packers oh i'm sorry i'm sorry oh what are you what are you picking there?

Vikings. Okay. I thought so. I guess I just had that in my head already that you were picking them to go 2-0. So there you go. So the Vikings go 15-2, and they win the conference, and the rest of the playoffs would look like this if it played out the way Manny just said. It would be Philadelphia, Washington in

round one, which is a hack of a potential battle there. Maybe even an upset wash. Washington has to be the best seven seed that has been since the seven seed was invented. Then it would be the three seed Los Angeles who, by the way, was what Were they two and four when they faced the Vikings? Would finish 11 and six against Green Bay, the sixth seed, and then Tampa Bay at home against Detroit for another Baker Mayfield versus Detroit playoff battle. That would be some kind of football. So as far as everything else goes, if the Vikings were to lose to green Bay,

let's see, is this, is this right? The Viking? Oh yeah, of course they could lose to green Bay. If Detroit loses to San Francisco, let's give Detroit that win. Yeah. Okay. Let's take a look. Yeah. Let's take a look at that. Let's take a look at that. So we'll try to work our way through some scenarios. So if Detroit were to beat San Francisco and the Vikings lose to green Bay, they get the one seed Detroit does. And the Vikings would drop to the fifth seed. The Vikings cannot have anything except the fifth seed. If I'm not mistaken, I think that even if green Bay wins out and the Vikings lose out, they end up both at 13 and four. Is that right? Yeah, I think they both end up 13 and four and the Vikings would have the tiebreaker. So they would still end up with the fifth seed

Tampa Bay with the fourth, which is not a bad matchup, Manny. I mean, Tampa Bay has really not been playing all that great of football. They barely survived the Panthers. They lost yesterday when they couldn't hold on to the football. I was a little more nervous about this for the Vikings maybe two weeks ago, but Tampa Bay has kind of been stuttering. The one that you wouldn't want to face is Los Angeles. So is there a game here? Let's say, oh, there is. Okay.

So if LA loses a game, it would be Vikings and the Rams. No bueno. Don't want that. Yeah. Don't want that. Don't want that. That'd be tough. Yeah, those receivers, that quarterback, that head coach, that defensive line. What else can we mess with? If the Bucs lose a game and end up with the same record as the Falcons, the Vikings could face the Falcons. I'll take that.

That would be. So if we're ranked, yeah, if we're ranking scenarios. So hopefully that all kind of made sense. If we're ranking scenarios. Easily the best scenario for the Vikings, of course, is just winning. And ending up with the number one seed. There you go. The second best is going to Atlanta.

I think they've got some good playmakers, but a rookie quarterback against Brian Flores in the playoffs seems like a pretty good matchup for the Vikings, even in comparison to Baker Mayfield, who won a home playoff game last year. Yeah, I mean, I think just with Atlanta's defense, which is not very good, they've got a couple of nice players

on that side of the ball, but they don't really have much of a pass rush. You know, the Vikings have too many weapons, I think, for Atlanta's secondary to be able to cover. And like you said, a rookie quarterback, you know, even though Michael Penix played all right yesterday in his first start, albeit it was against the New York Giants, who are terrible,

I would love the Vikings' chances going on the road in a controlled environment, too, so you don't have to worry about weather. And I think the Falcons are a great matchup for the Vikings to be able to go in there and win pretty handily, I think. Okay, let me check something on the playoff machine because we have differing thoughts about if the Vikings win out and the Packers, or I'm sorry, if the Vikings lose out and the Packers win out. So let me, let me just check this one and see if that is right. Okay.

Yeah. Okay. Correction. At least the way that I just plugged it in the vikings would have the sixth seed if the vikings lose the next two and green bay wins the next two that's what the playoff machine says so thank you for that correction um there you go and it doesn't really make a conference record thing it must be it must be maybe there's other games because i just plugged in just the vikings into that and just the packers so maybe be. Maybe there's other games because I just plugged in just the Vikings into that and just the

Packers. So maybe there's some combination of other games that can result in that. I mean, there's a lot of different ways that could go five or six seed for the Vikings doesn't really matter much. You're still playing the same potential teams. It's either going to be LA, Atlanta, or Tampa Bay. Most likely if you don't get the number one seed, uh, we have been asked to stop the Rams fear mongering. I, you know what? I like a good fear monger from time to time around the holidays. I like to fear monger a little bit more than I fear monger in like April.

Look, they lost to the Rams. They've been hot as heck. They got everything that causes the Vikings problems. They run the ball. They've got a great D-line. They've got a great coach. They've got great receivers. That's fact mongering, man.

It's not fear mongering. That quarterback is still good. He's still, Matthew Stafford is still really, really good. Right. That's the thing. Stafford's playing good football. The coup was phenomenal. He gets rid of the football. Now he doesn't hold onto it. Like he used to their coach again there. And look at that atmosphere. If they've got a playoff game they're not just going to give all the tickets to the Vikings fans that's going to be one where they pretend that they've been Rams fans all along and all the celebrities show up at the game and they show them uh Manju says how important was the Jags game to this season I think that you're

implying that it was really important and i agree that they really almost did need that they needed a little bit of a darn old did a little bit of a splash in the face of you got to take a look at yourself in the mirror and fix some of these issues when it comes to taking risks with the football and where you're putting the football um so i i think that that's like the true turning point in this season is finding a way to grind out that win and then treating it as almost like a loss and putting in the work to fix it because darnold has just been an elite quarterback since then yeah i mean he it's i love the the comparison of like splash of water, of just kind of like maybe you've been kind of sleepwalking a little bit or just kind of going through the motions because you're having so much success

and you're continuing to win games. But, you know, you get that splash of water in your face like, hey, dude, like what you're doing right now, you got to make an adjustment. You got to make some changes here. Otherwise, this thing could really fall off the rails. And look at what you did. Look at how you performed against a bad team. What's going to happen if you keep playing like this against a good team later on down the line? If we make the playoffs, you go on the road against a really good team, you can't throw three interceptions like that. Otherwise, you're going to lose and your season's over. And again, to Sam Darnold's credit, he has responded to that

with just unbelievable performance after unbelievable performance, including what he did yesterday down the stretch. Okay, I like the semantics of this. I'm going to argue with it a little. I shot you 99 says technically if you're the one seed you can't go on a playoff run unless you win the conference championship no no no no no you won the buy uh-huh you won the buy then you went to the conference championship actually my original answer was that you have to get to the just NFC championship. But that is true.

You won. You had to win to win the bye. And then you get to the divisional round. Then you have to win there. So you earned that by to get that deep in the playoffs. Then you can call it a playoff run. So I'm going to I'm going to fit that around what I already thought. Let's see.

So more questions, comments, reactions to everything. I'm getting a high mark for my Patrick Royce. I've been working on it since I got here. Patrick is the best. You and I know that as well as anybody else in the world, I world. I think Jason says, Adam Schefter said on ESPN that today, seven teams are in need for a quarterback in 2025. It's probably more than that two in the draft. So five will be bidding on Sam Darnold. He said, he's hearing Darnold will get an offer of $50 million per year. Doesn't really matter if the Vikings franchise tag him, but you know, the, there are different

types of franchise tags and one of them does leave the door open to another team making, uh, putting a bid in for him. Remember when we went through this with the Lamar Jackson thing where another team can give him an offer. And then if the Vikings don't match it, they can get two first round draft picks, But there's another franchise tag where they can't do that. There's it's complicated. It's just that's how I would put it at the moment. Of course, there will be a bunch of other teams, probably more than five that look at Sam Darnold the way he's played and want him on their team.

This is just my opinion on this, Manny. I know it'll be judged by the playoffs and so forth. I just think we've gone past the point of no return with Sam Darnold. I think he has to be the Vikings quarterback for next year. That's how I feel. That's not reporting. That's just how I feel. I don't know how the hell you could win 15 games or i'm sorry 13 games have a chance to win 15 games going into the last two weeks and then just be like yeah we'll just do it with somebody else i just i just think you've gone too far but i suppose i suppose there is a scenario where the next three weeks are just awful and it falls apart and he throws nine picks and one touchdown and gets benched for

Michael. Oh wait, no, that's someone else. Uh, he falls apart and he struggles and they lose three straight games to end the season. And they just feel like, well, we weren't a strong enough team. He wasn't really as good as we thought he was. I don't think that's going to happen. And they'll just have to figure it out in the off season. But every, everybody I've seen every NFL insider trying to get something on this. It reminds me of Justin Jefferson's contract where we kind of all know what the answer is. And every insider has a job and has to do that insider thing where they have to be like that the Vikings like Jefferson and want to sign them you're like oh great report and the same thing is here like people would want darnell oh yeah the dudes played

like a top five quarterback in the whole league oh you you want them other teams would want them what a shock so anyway i'm i am uh i'm suspending operations on that discussion for the week. I just don't. Every insider is going to try to have something. Every debate show is going to have something. For this week, I do not care. They're trying to win the Super Bowl. I do not care.

We'll work on it later. That's how I feel right now. Yeah. And you know what? Kevin O'Connell is telling those guys right now, let's just focus on the Green Bay Packers. After we focus on the Green Bay Packers, we focus on the Detroit Lions. After we focus on the Detroit Lions, focus on the playoffs.

That's, for me, as an observer of this team, as a follower of this team, as a fan of this team, honestly, right now, that's all I give a damn about. I just want to see how they perform against the Green Bay Packers. I want to see, can they win these next two games and lock up that number one seed? And that increases their chances of going to the Super Bowl. What they do with Sam Darnold after that, we can talk about that. We can debate that. We can speculate on how much money he's going to make when that time comes.

As of right now, I am enjoying this season. I don't care what's going to happen in February and March. Yeah, I mean, I care eventually, but at this moment, at this moment, it just it feels wrong to me to be going back and forth and all this stuff. And, uh, but since, uh, since Jeff, one of the all-time great purple insider supporters, um, hopefully you Jeff in Seattle enjoyed his rain yesterday. Cause I did not Jeff. I got very wet walking to the stadium, but, uh, Jeff with the super chat really appreciate that Jeff as, as always. This year, the Vikings are carrying $71 million in dead cap. Next year, they have a total of $3 million so they can afford Darnold. I think you meant to say do not believe Quasey would let a franchise quarterback walk.

That's the thing about the whole debate, Manny, that gets frustrating is there's a lot of nuances to the salary cap that in a 30 second debate show, they're not going to go over. They're just going to go, you can't pay Darnold. You'll never win again. Yeah, you can. Like I, you know, he's so good. And then that, then the debate ends and that's really all it is. There's, there's so much to be sorted out with this. The reality is if they want to keep Darnold, they can do it, and it does not end the franchise there, and they can continue to be good. And Jeff's point is very valid. They have a ton of dead cap money.

They have a ton of dead cap on the quarterback position this year, and they just built a team that's in this position. And then now we're saying when it comes to keeping Darnold, now we're saying, but they couldn't possibly do it. Like they right now, gestures at present, like this is happening right now. Uh, so anyway, that's, that's just how I feel. I think that that one's going to be full debate nights here and conversation nights here into the off season when it's over. But I just want to make sure, and I tweeted something about this last night as I was in traffic going to the Seattle airport, which again, Seattle, figure out your rain, figure out your traffic at the airport. Okay.

Cause that was not great. Um, before a red eye flight, but, uh, so now i'm bagging on seattle and can't remember where i was headed with that but uh oh i was thinking about how it feels like the success and performance of sam darnold should be at the forefront and it's just contract contract contract because the debate is hotter and that agitates the heck out of me when it comes to how media works is it's always about what the debate is that gets people worked up more and not about what the right thing to be talking about is, which is this guy's led a 13 and two football team by playing at an elite level and leading in such a

great way as a person. That's what I'd like them to talk about if they asked me, but they don't ask me. So they just yell at each other about his contract. And I'm going to keep saying this every time this subject comes up, Matthew collar, there is no rule that is requiring the Minnesota Vikings to start J.J. McCarthy at quarterback next season. There's nothing requiring that. If that's the direction that they choose, so be it. Let's go. Let's see how the kid does. But if they're able to bring Sam Darnold back, J.J. McCarthy doesn't necessarily have to go anywhere. He's fine. He's 21.

They don't have to go to him next year. Just relax, people. Enjoy this season because it's so much fun. Just speaking of fun, just looked at the Packers and Saints score. Yeah. I just, you, you want to,

you want to do so you want to do a little snark just for fun. I just, I think I know where you're going with this. I just want to know the people who rated Spencer Rattler over Michael Penix. What grade cocaine were you snorting when you watch that tape and had that take? That's all. That's all I want to know.

That is one of the weirdest developments. I think during draft season, other than Malik Willis should go number two overall to the lions, which was right. They have Jared Goff and then there's Super super bowl contender in back-to-back years but they should have picked malik willis a couple years ago anyway that okay fair enough like the guy had a big arm or something maybe you think that they needed a future quarterback and whatever you can almost get around to that the spencer rattler one is one of the strangest takes by

wannabe scout people that I've ever seen. The guy was not good in college at any point. He got benched for Caleb Williams at Oklahoma and then took his ball and went home to South Carolina when he could have stayed at Oklahoma and became their starter. But he decided to take his ball and go home because he got benched for a guy that was better than him. He's not big. He doesn't have good stats. I don't know what, anyway, he threw good at the senior bowl,

which we got all the, all the, the scouts at the senior bowl and so forth, who were really excellent at it since they pegged Pennix and Nick's second and third round picks. I don't know. I don't have to be that concerned with a draft season and what happened then, but the fact that they've played Rattler and it has just been such a mess for them, the Packers,

this is their Chicago game from a week ago for the Vikings, where it was never in doubt. It was never that close. There wasn't much worry level and you just kind of, okay, get the football game over with. so the packers are going to come in well rest they've played two weeks in a row where they've had just yeah as quarterbacks that they're going up against so i i don't know that there's going to be a whole heck of a lot of advantage uh i i suppose by having the packers play monday night because did they really play that they just had to arrive at the stadium anyway what else is on your mind with this uh playoff race manny i i'm just really fascinated to see just how you know how this thing with

detroit kind of plays out because you know they the Lions kind of I mean they've got to play the Bears yesterday so you know all the injuries that they've been dealing with were just a complete non-factor yesterday because they were playing the Bears who have completely given up on their season um but the Lions these last two games they got San Francisco this week and obviously they hope they host the Vikings in week 18 how the Lions kind of continue to look and how they handle all of the injuries that they're dealing with you know I think losing David Montgomery I mean Jameer Gibbs is fantastic but I think kind of losing that element of the one-two punch in their running game I'll be fascinated to see how that kind of plays

out you know because Gibbs is going to have maybe a little bit more of a workload. What kind of impact does that have on him? And just again, like all the all the injuries that they have on defense, how are they going to how's Dan Campbell going to manage that? And, you know, how they're going to match up when they start, you know, when playoff time comes around and they have to play a team that's really, really good. They're doing OK right now. They're surviving. The Buffalo game was tough, but they took care of the Bears, which was a very low bar that was set. San Francisco might be an easy game for them because the Niners, their season is pretty much over.

When playoff time comes around, depending on the kind of matchup that they get, we know they're going to be able to move the ball, but can they stop people enough in the playoffs? That's going to be really interesting to see. Just with Detroit in general, we would have been saying much more how hard this was going to be

if they weren't as banged up as they are. Gibbs, though, Dave Montgomery's a really good player, and he's kind of been a Viking killer at times. Gibbs is so good, this might've helped. They, they loved having the duo. Everyone loves having the duo. They gave themselves a nickname of a movie that just so happened to have been coming out. And I don't know if they got paid for that or not. And hopefully they did.

If they just like took on a nickname as the characters, hopefully they got paid by whoever makes the Sonic movie, but the duo is great, but Gibbs is just a better football player. And the more he's on the field, the better it probably is for their offense, but on the defensive side, they can't pressure with four.

They play man all the time. Caleb Williams still had a lot of good moments in that football game against the Detroit defense. Detroit was just so bad on, uh, or I'm sorry, Chicago was just so bad on defense that they ran over them as you would have expected them to do. But Caleb had kind of a bounce bag game ish against that defense. And he had been as down bad as anybody in the NFL going into that game. So you think about what Jefferson has historically done to the Detroit lions, and then he's going to play them without Carlton Davis, who is the guy that they can, I don't know if they ever said this, they signed Carlton Davis

to play against Justin Jefferson. He's one of the best man to man guys. He's big. They wanted to press all that stuff. That's what they signed him for. They're not going to have them. And that just screams a big game there. They can't stop the run. And when the Vikings can run the ball and they can run play action. So that, that one feels much closer because of that. And I agree to keep an eye on that. And with the Packers and this game, if the Packers do win against the Vikings, are we saying, uh, Packers might be a serious Superbowl contender because the second half of their season, they have played as well as anybody in the entire NFL. It's just that since they haven't been racing for the conference, we've kind of put them a little out of sight, out of mind.

And the Vikings haven't played them for so long that it's not like we were doing a weekly Packer breakdown of their games, but Jordan Love has played really, really well in the second half of the season. Kind of like he did last year, weapons, running the football, their coach is really excellent. I mean, this is, this is a battle of two teams that are playing at the peak of their powers and i just i'm really keeping an eye on that self too the nfc self if it's just one of those you couldn't write it if you tried the fact that they could play michael pennix in the playoffs even if you even if from the very beginning even if from the moment kirk was drafted and the real ogs of this program know that i laughed uncontrollably because i was shocked but also because of just the whole i you know it's not about the dollars it's what the dollars

represent you know you just want to be loved and everything and then they just say well you know sort of love you but we want to we like this guy and then he's playing and he's playing the vikings of the playoffs it would just be too delicious. So, I mean, that and how well Tampa plays down the stretch is Washington kind of a sneaky team here. That game between Washington and Philly, what great drama that was. And on the AFC side, I mean, the quarterbacks, Lamar, Allen,

Kansas City looked a little more spry the other day. They're getting Hollywood Brown back. And can they just keep relying on converting third downs and playing defense? I don't know. We're blessed, Manny. We're blessed. It's going to be so much fun. It's just a wonderful time.

Going back to atlanta very quickly because everybody ripped them to shreds not you and i but everybody ripped them to shreds for taking pennix could you imagine if they hadn't taken michael pennix why would you want to try some snark you don't snark that much you leave the snark why don't you try it why don't you try it i mean imagine kirk cousins playing as terribly as he did the last handful of games before he got benched, and you got nobody to turn to. Right. Think about that. Think about that.

He's playing like absolute junk. There's other words that I could use, but it's a family show. It is. He's playing like absolute junk, and you got nobody to turn to. And everybody ripped them to shreds. Everybody. Everybody ripped them to shreds, except for you and I. Everybody ripped them to shreds for taking pennies.

Oh, it was a bad decision. Why didn't they get an edge rusher? Why didn't they help that defense? Maybe the real mistake they made was giving uh giving number 18 100 million dollars guaranteed call me crazy if you want to go you want to go that was decent that was it's not your thing but you you put it in that gear and you went pretty fast i'm like a ferrari of snark what i would say is if i was a draft analyst and i gave the Atlanta Falcons a C minus for their draft pick of Michael Penix, and then it worked out like this, and then maybe Penix is good. We'll see. I would just stop

doing it. I would, I would just like, I'm not good at this. I should try actually learning how to write unlike what a lot of draft analysts can actually do. That's how you go next level on the snark, Manny. But you know what? The poor Falcons website, I looked this up the other day, the poor Falcons website posted the draft grades. They were like draft grades for our draft. And they're all bad they're all c minus c whatever you guys nailed it once again well done breaking down a team's draft let's go back and look at all those b pluses for the vikings when they took lewis scene i mean one of the most useless exercises in the history of the universe is grading drafts but this one this is where it's not second guessing for if you're paying

attention at all why would they draft a quarterback unless they thought this might be a problem with kirk cousins and his age and his achilles and all all those things and now they've given themselves a legitimate chance to compete in the playoffs with their young rookie quarterback. I mean, if you're the Vikings, you would rather face Kirk cousins than you would want to face Michael Penix. I think they've got a really, really strong chance to beat any rookie that they play, but Penix gets rid of the football. That was the other thing that I feel like all these people missed. Sacks kill drives. And this is why Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the league right now. Josh Allen doesn't take sacks. Dan Marino didn't take sacks. And you know, when it comes

to Michael Pennix, he's so good at getting rid of the football and he did it the other day against the giants. They pressured him. Whoop, gets rid of the ball. And that's something where if you're playing the Vikings against Michael Pennix, we saw even Gino do this. He got rid of the ball and that's something where if you're playing the vikings against michael pennix we saw even gino do this he got rid of the ball he escaped some it caused them problems so even though i would rank atlanta as the number one team i'd want them to face if they are the five seed pennix has just got that little element of him that you wonder can he survive the pressure because he does get rid of the ball no question about it it's it's why i think you and i both really liked him a lot coming out of washington because he got rid of the football he didn't take a lot of sacks he's his arm is really strong he's got a rocket of an arm and it it's kind of the thing that I really like about him, too.

And we talked about this during the lead up to the draft was his arm is so good and so pure that it doesn't. It's and we kind of see this with Sam Darnold, too. It's a lot of the throws, a lot of the deep throws that he makes. They almost look effortless because the arm is so strong and so powerful. And that really kind of allows guys like him to get rid of the ball very quickly because it's just not going to take as long to release that ball. You know what I mean? That ball is going to come out right away. I think he's going to be really good.

And I think the NFC South is going to be, you know, depending on how some of the other teams do, the Falcons have a chance if they do things right the rest of the way post-Kirk, they have a chance, I think, to really take control of that division if they've got the young quarterback playing as well as he potentially could. Brett says Atlanta's a horrible organization for signing Kirk, but sure, geniuses for drafting Pennix.

I think that you can pretty clearly see the dynamic there. And this isn't sources or anything, but I mean, we all can put two and two together in the NFL at this point. Their owners in his eighties seems like that would be splitting the difference between what the two wanted to do, the front office and the owner. And if you look at the way that they played football the last couple of years with really good weapons and no quarterback play, you can see exactly why they would have signed Kirk Cousins. And they look really silly for doing it now, but it always made a lot of sense. That was my number one team for cousins the entire time. It's like,

that's a team with a great running game and a bunch of weapons. And if he just keeps the ball on the fairway, then they're going to win a lot of games in the NFC South. Problem is the ball went in the woods and then it went in the lake, got shanked a lot. And then it went in the lake got shanked a lot and then it went in a lake in the woods and then it hit a golf cart and a lady who was in the woods i mean it was that's as bad of quarterback play that's been played in the nfl by anybody in a long time in that five game stretch but they did look not so stupid before that when he threw for 500 yards and won some games sometimes here's here's the hardest part of things for people to accept in the nfl sometimes we don't know what's going to

happen and with the quarterback position we really don't know what's going to happen you know who else doesn't know what's going to happen them the vikings could tell you all day long and it'd be true hey they they believed in Darnold they believed in Darnold that's how they just barely eked out a war with the Broncos to sign him right they they believed in him so much they paid him 10 million bucks okay you can't tell me anybody thought they would be 13 to that's the same thing with all when Bryce Young was benched do you think anyone in Carolina was like we got our guy he's gonna look great later this season I swear right no way San Francisco uh yeah just just who cares about this

draft pick just take that what's his name Prudy take him from uh iowa and uh who cares he could be a camp body he's in the super bowl last year i don't know that's what makes sports great but they were very wise to draft michael pennix and not just live with that kirk cousins thing and it kind of goes back to the old theory of should just draft quarterbacks and see what happens so uh give me this uh before we wrap up manny what is your uh percentage chance we were talking about the uh pie chart earlier but just give me a give me a percentage that this team wins the next two games that's how you picked it to happen but give me a percentage chance that it happens and that they land the number one seed. How confident are you?

50%. I think it's about 50-50. I feel the same way. Maybe slightly less. It's hard to win back-to-back division games. That'd be a 10-game winning streak too. I know. And I was talking about quarterbacks that they played earlier they've played a lot of good quarterbacks on their schedule but they haven't quite played i mean they beat jordan love before but not at full power

lost to golf before lost to stafford and they haven't played someone of that level gino's good kyler's good. They're starters in the league. They've made playoff games before and stuff like that, but they're not as good as what Jordan love is doing. They're not as good as what Jared golf is doing, and they're not as well coached. So this is one of those games where you don't have a significant coaching advantage against green Bay. And then the same would go for Detroit. You're kind of relying on Detroit's injuries on the defensive side and then having the ball last and against the Packers, you're relying on having the home field advantage, maybe taking the ball away from Jordan love, which they've done pretty well in a few of these games. But other than that,

other than that, I mean, it's, it's just a great lead up to a game. And there's some sort of holiday this week. And I think everyone's referring to Packers and Vikings. People keep saying happy holidays. And I'm like, yeah, Sunday, let's go. 325, I'll be there. I'll be there. So anyway, Manny, great stuff from you.

And we'll talk Thursday night, but I won't see you before Christmas. So Merry Christmas to you and your family. And to, let's see, I have, I'm pretty sure I got everything. The Searles is pre-recorded for tomorrow. So I won't be live to see you all on Christmas Eve, maybe Christmas day, depending on what happens. I don't know.

Maybe I get bored. I got bored on Thanksgiving. I was like, we got to go live. So we'll see. But if I don't see you all before then uh merry christmas to all those who celebrate and we will talk to you all later football football