Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - What does Arif Hasan's consensus big board say about the Vikings?

Episode Date: April 24, 2025

Matthew Coller is joined by Arif Hasan of the Wide Left newsletter to discuss what his consensus big board says about who the Vikings will likely take in the draft.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Coller here. And this is the final podcast before the Minnesota Vikings draft people. So I got down to the last person I hadn't asked to come on the show yet. And that is a reef has on the wide left newsletter just does tremendous work over there. And one of the things that Arif has been doing for, I don't know, a really, really long time is the consensus big board.

We all reference it so many times. It has been a lot of interesting research done through the years because of the effort you put in to gather the big boards and put together a consensus. So we're going to talk about what that means relating to the Minnesota Vikings. How are you Arif? Are you a little tired putting together your big board? It takes some time. Yeah, no, I'm exhausted.

I don't love a chat GPT or AI, but I uploaded one version of the consensus big board and I was like, hey, how many data points did I put in here? And they were like, about 40,000. So I guess that's where I'm at. Yeah, no, it's like 166 different worksheets in my Excel spreadsheet. It takes a lot of time, but it's a lot of fun. People love it, like you mentioned. And luckily there seems to be some value in it. So I'm going to keep doing it because because it's it's, I think, a really fun project. Well, one thing that I've always gone back and forth on is how much weight to put in the analysis of people that are outside of buildings,

because I was just talking to someone in the league not too long ago, and they were talking about some different things that they know internally that you just can't know from the outside. One major thing is health. There's a player that might have a serious injury that's projected as a first-rounder, and there's some concern over that player, but that's not information that's necessarily out there. So that can alter what big boards look like and what draft analysis looks like. And not only that, but character things and what their coaches really say about them behind the scenes when the scouts show up and all that sort of stuff that

goes for background that we can't really know and how teams view. One thing I learned from the Vikings just talking over the years is that they don't necessarily have like 500 players that they might pick. They have a handful of guys that they've identified as good fits for their culture, good fits for their schemes, and it can get really specific. So all of that throws off the why did you draft this guy then and so forth. But the bigger picture is if you have a lot of great football people, the Lance

Zier lines, the Dane Brugler's, all those people all watching all these players and they come to a consensus, which is what you're doing. It tells a story about the wisdom of crowds. So I think it is a very useful tool, but maybe you could tell me over the years what you've learned about it and what it can and can't say about the draft. Yeah, no, absolutely.

And I think the point about team boards is really important. I know that, for example, for a long time, Bill Belichick's team board with the Patriots is only like 60 players some years, which is why, like, oh my, why do they draft Colestrange? It's like, who's the top player on their board, which is why like you know my why do they draft cold strange? It's like it was the top player on their board legitimately like they just happen sometimes You know Dallas Cowboys go up to 150 all of these big boards that we have

There's 257 players in the draft right these big boards that we have go up to 300 500 players and teams will evaluate over 2,000 players it's not that they're not evaluating. it's that they're like, hey, this guy's not a scheme fit, this guy's not a character fit. There are some years where some teams will only draft team captains because they're like, hey, we've got a culture problem. So we're going to attempt to turn this around really quickly. This is not going to be a consistent pattern because we also need to get good players. But this year we're only drafting team captains, right? And it's like, oh, oh, geez, like I didn't account for that at all. There was no way I could have predicted that.

That just happens sometimes. And sometimes it's a good approach, sometimes it's not. But the uniqueness with which teams approach solving their specific problem sometimes doesn't get reflected in the board. And sometimes we learn about injuries beforehand. Sometimes we learn about injuries too late to update the big board.

So for example, yesterday I just learned about Derek Harman having some kind of injury, I don't know. And it is impacting the way some teams might evaluate. I wanna be careful in my language. I've got no idea what's going on. But like we have a week of news about Jihad Campbell. Most people who've submitted boards to the consensus big board, unaware of the severity of the shoulder injury.

And then during the draft, someone will fall. Don't know who, we never know. And then we find out a day later, oh, yeah, they've got a degenerative knee condition. You're like, oh, I didn't know that at all. And so you can't really do a great job of that, whether it's an undisclosed character thing, whether it's an arrest or a locker room thing

or anything in between, that will impact the way some teams see this. And what's really interesting is that now teams are taking unique approaches, position by position approaches to locker room problems, where if you're a receiver who's a locker room cancer, sometimes it's kind of a good thing relative to everybody else versus, you know, like an offensive lineman. It's like you can't, like there's only so many rich incognitoes.

Like you can't have that many. A lot of the people that are constructing these are very talented at what they do, but they just simply don't have access to that information. The Consensus Big Board gives us a really good construction of talent. It actually does a pretty good job of adjusting for positional value, which is nice too, but it's not going to be able to resolve some of these problems, like answering why necessarily some player may slide. And what we found is that over the years, when you see a team reach for a player.

So you've got it like the Colestrange example is a decent one, but you've got a player rated as a third, fourth, fifth round pick and a team draftsman the first round. Typically, not always, there's always a Colton Miller or something like that. But typically, you know, that is not going to work out for the team. More often than not, that player does not meet their pick value and they often bust, right? So for like, every Colton Miller, there's a Colestreich, right? Who has not been playing well and now the Patriots are projected to draft another attack. Like, good job. But, like, on the other hand, if, and that's, one team makes a decision, it only takes one

team to reach. It takes 32 teams for a steal to appear. And so all of these teams have some level of information, whether it was N'Kobi Dean's pectoral, right, or remember Jesse Williams way back had a knee injury. He was an Alabama defensive tackle. Andrew Billings, it turns out, had a conditioning issue. So he could only play like 15 snaps a game. Those kinds of things, which Andrew Billings

has turned in a great career. But when you have a player fall in the draft relative of the consensus board, 32 teams are agreeing, as opposed to one team making a decision. And so steals can work out. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Baltimore Ravens have done a very good job of taking advantage of steals. But more often than not, it doesn't generate as much return. So steals on average perform better than the players who meet their pick slot and certainly much better than reaches, but not by as much as the consensus board would suggest and so that's there's kind of a

Dynamic at play here or one kind of miss is more meaningful Than another kind of miss because of the way those misses will occur So I think it's really cool tool and when you measure it against NFL performance It does a really good job some years it outperforms the NFL not usually but some years and performance, it does a really good job. Some years it outperforms the NFL, not usually, but some years. And when you compare it to the hundred boards that comprise it, it's always in the top 10 in terms of being able to predict player outcomes. So I'm really happy with with how well it does, especially relative to the NFL.

So there's a few things. I mean, one is you and I both heard Kirk Cousins say each interception has its own story. Well, each draft pick has its own story for a slide or for a reach. Right. And I think the slides, sometimes a guy slides because we don't know something. Sometimes a guy slides for the stupidest reason. Like, I'll just give you a little bit. Yeah. Well, yeah.

OK, that's the all time stupidest reason. But I was told that Christian Derrassaw slid because when he did his interviews, he was too too relaxed. He was too chill. Yeah. Yeah. People. I heard that too. He was like, not intense enough. And then people threw on. Was it his Miami game, I want to say.

And he was like, oh, he was soft in that game. He was relaxed in the interview. You soften the game. And it turns out he like the coaches didn't want him to play in that game because he had an injured the interview, he was soft in the game and it turns out, the coaches didn't want him to play in that game because he had an injured knee and he insisted that he play. And when you talk to Vikings evaluators about Christian Dier so like,

hey, these reports are that he's like soft. I don't know if you've had the same experience I've had, they're like, what are you talking about? This guy finishes, this guy's tough, he's aggressive, he played through injury and that's what we see now, but like not every team interprets the same data the same way. So Christian Derrissau is soft, is like something from the interviews is a crazy way to, especially for an offensive lineman where like their off-field demeanor and their on-field demeanor can be completely different. To choose

a bad player, but the one who is who definitely represents this, Tevin Jenkins is mean as hell on the field and such like a teddy bear off the field. And it doesn't impact his meanness. Like, it's not the reason his balance is poor. Right. He's a tough player. I think that's irrefutable. But he wears glasses and he talks softly. Right. I mean, even the Vikings off its of Lyman, I would not call Brian O'Neill

or Christian Derrissa anything close to soft. But you can go over to their lockers in the locker room and talk to them anytime. And these are two of the nicer guys you're ever going to run across. But that's because I also think two tackles have to control their emotions better than others. So they're kind of like closing pitchers and baseball where you kind of have to need to be a little more calm and not lose yourself. Because if you have a miss and you give up a sack and then that gets in your head, I think you need to be kind of relaxed.

But that was one of the reasons. And the Justin Jefferson only plays in the slot despite catching 111 passes and playing outside the year before the whole. I mean, that's what I mean, like sometimes. And there's other things where it's just a totally random thing where every team had its particular plan for that night. And they went with this guy and they went with that guy. And that's kind of 2020 also where certain teams really identified. Miami had just drafted a quarterback and they had an awful offensive line.

So they were like, we need to take Austin Jackson, who was not a good prospect. Really not an amazing prospect. Yeah, right. He was a reach. But man, when they drafted him, every analyst was like, well, that makes a lot of sense because, you know, to and he's going to need to be protected and stuff. And Justin Jefferson just keeps on sliding down the board. So sometimes there is reason sometimes they're not reaches are. And this is the difference between it.

Right. Is like, sometimes it is just a random thing that causes somebody to drop that had nothing to do with even a miss evaluation. It was just other teams wanted somebody else, but with a reach one team has to ignore a lot in order to do it. So if a hundred draft boards look at a player and this, you know, I think the guy who's going to be reached on this year is Walter Nolan.

You have to ignore some of the concerns about his pass rush win rate was not that great for someone with that level of exposure. That's the thing he's good at. Right. Yeah. Right. And is and I look this up about PFF pass rush grades for guys that have become great pass rushers at DT and what they did in their last year in college. He had one of the lowest PFF pass rush grades, so he has not performed all that well in the area where he like is being drafted is to do that's a red flag.

You have to ignore if you take him at eight, as opposed to taking him at 33 where 33 it's a good bet. But if you're in the top 10 and you're doing it, then you're ignoring the fact that some people thought maybe he wasn't the highest level effort player and things like that. And I think those red flags are what are more likely to get you on a reach than if someone dropped because of a red flag and you just grabbed them anyway.

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Yeah, no, absolutely. Walter Nolan's a pretty interesting example of a potential reach. I wouldn't be surprised if it was like the Tennessee edge rusher James Pierce or actually, and this is a guy that's been attached to the Vikings a lot in mock drafts. I don't know if there's any reporting suggesting that the Vikings like this guy, but Nick Amonwory from South Carolina, the safety. To me, and this is an interesting one, I just published a piece today as we're recording about evaluators versus forecasters, right?

And it's just, it's two different groups of people who have access to different types of information. They put together big boards. Some people have access to team-specific and for team-level information like injury and health and so on, and what the teams think, and that might influence their rankings. And they like Nick Imanwari a lot, but the consensus on Nick Imanwari, first of all, he's a high-variance player. I've got the variance scores for all the players in the big board, so you can see which players are the most polarizing and most divisive.

He's a high-variance player, but generally speaking, the group of 100, the evaluators and then also just the group overall, they're a lot lower on him. Borderline first-round talent. I'm not saying he's a third-rounder secretly, but because the concerns I've talked to people about this, because the concerns about him are that the athletic testing that he has, which is truly extraordinary, some of the best athletic testing we've ever seen at the safety position, like Earl Thomas level, incredible athletic testing, doesn't really show up on the field in the same way that people want.

And then also he's cast as like this box safety, but the skills that you need as a box safety aren't really skills that he has, or at least has demonstrated thus far. Things can always change. And so there's a little bit of a mismatch about what his projected role in the NFL might be and what teams see him as. And so to me, he's somebody that, you know, even though the forecasters were generally

better at predicting the draft order for a lot of these players, have him higher, it wouldn't shock me if he's somebody that just starts sliding despite a lot of people putting him around the 20s or at 24 with the Vikings and sliding to the second round because he just hasn't been as productive. He doesn't bring his athleticism to bear, especially in the run game. He's an interesting one because we kind of know that a Viking safety is someone who is a Swiss army right that does a ton of different things And you can see why people think he can do a lot of different things But I don't know that we've seen him do a lot of different things And so he that one's the most curious fit at one point within a two-week

I was looking at these mock draft percentages and stuff like that There was like a two-week span where like over 70% of mock drafts that had the Vikings in their mocks had him and worry Attached to him. I was like shocked, which I expected it to be the majority. That was a lot. But he's somebody that, you know, either him or Pierce or Walter Nolan, I think is a really great example of one where he's going to drop a little bit. Whereas somebody like Shemar Stewart might go a little bit higher than people think because athleticism is something that he did demonstrate on the field, didn't turn into production, did demonstrate on the field and is much more important at that, you know, edge Russia position than at the safety position. And so teams will want to bet on that.

And I think Danielle Hunter has altered the landscape for the way that people have evaluated that edge position. I mean, teams openly, not just the Vikings teams openly reference, you know, like Danielle Hunter and they're like, well, the production's not that big a deal. I mean, take a look at that guy. That I just, I love when that stuff comes up because if you could find one example to justify what you wanted to, oh yeah, just going to use it. But we saw the Vikings try to do that 10 other times in the middle. DJ one of them was the next, you know, Daniel, how many times do we hear it?

I mean, it was a hole. I see a lot of the day, one of was the next, you know, to Neil, how many times do we hear it? I mean, it was Neil and Hall. I see a lot of the Neil Hunter in him. I mean, I was you guys. That was a UDFA that like if he was the next deal, why didn't you draft him? I really like Bowser Bowers or something like that. Sean Bauer. Yeah. To Sean Bauer, he went to LSU and he was told he's still around. He's in the U.F.L. I think.

But in it, Daniel Hunter was 20 and he and he had a high rate of tackles for loss, but like he produced in one element, at least. He's also one of the most unique people I've ever met in football. I mean, just the drive, the intelligence, the key and not to mention that he was put in a situation where he's in a room with B Rob and with Everson, and with Andre Patterson, who has developed many defensive pass rushers.

I mean, it's just kind of a perfect world scenario for him, and he didn't have to play right away. Like all of those things. Yeah. Uh, Griffin was on a similar path to him. So he kind of knows cause Griffin didn't start for like three, four years was also a, he was a fourth round pick. Hunter was a third round pick, but he's also a mid round pick. Didn't start for a number of years. He was also sitting behind some truly impressive talents and then got to develop. And so like having that, you know,

a lot of people have this perception of Griffin, but like having that in the room with you, I think it was a really interesting... Whereas somebody like a Bud Dupree was expected to play right away and it's very clear that he needed a lot of seasoning before he could potentially... I don't know if he could have ever contributed because he didn't have necessarily the flexibility of that position you need, but if he were, it would be kind of a developmental situation. But because DeNeil Hunter succeeded, DeNeil Hunter's got pushed into the first round and now a bunch like now you're was Miles Murphy the the Raiders guy who I think there was I think Schefter mentioned he might be on the trade block which is like oh

okay like yeah if you don't put in and again Miles Murphy is like 24 it's a toy with a broken foot like a totally different situation But an athlete who didn't necessarily produce and it's kind of push and so Shamar Stewart might be a guy Huge athlete didn't necessarily produce None of the Texas A&M defensive linemen pretty so like maybe like in the same way the LSU defense It's like maybe you could see it. But like again Everyone's comfortable sitting a third round pick for three, four years. How comfortable is people are already upset about Dallas Turner

and both Vikings, Ed Rushers went to the Pro Bowl. Well, everybody is downstairs again. You set behind a couple of probably relax. Are we going to be able to do that with Shemar Stewart for a team that needs an edge rusher? I don't know. It's also the hardest position, I think, to come in right away and get a bunch of sacks. I mean, Khalil Mack had four in his first year.

It was a good boy. Right. He's become one of the best ever at that position. One more quick thought on Hunter is that whatever he did strength wise at the combine, he was not done growing as a person when they drafted him. So it was way stronger than that by three years into his career. And that's just something you can't factor. And I think that's one thing that like people don't understand about, like why people care about older versus younger prospects when because people

at peak athletically, depending on what the athletic activity is, between ages like 28 and 30, sometimes 27. But like you look at the top sprinters in the world, they're like 28, 29 years old. They're not in college, people continue to grow. And so you test somebody at 20 and you test somebody at 25, you would expect the 25 year old to have better testing scores in the 40 yard dash,

especially in strength related scores like the bench press or the vertical. And when you do that and you don't adjust kind of for that age, then you've created an athletic model that's creating some problems for you because now you're just getting older guys who are not necessarily as athletic as those younger guys are going to be when they reach the same age. And then also, you're evaluating the film of a 20-year-old going up against 22-year-olds versus a 24-year-old going up against 22-year-olds. The 24-year-old is a better football player and has less room to grow technically, to

grow physically, and less elasticity to learn a new scheme and learn new techniques. And so that's one element. Dean Hunter was incredibly young. I remember because he was the youngest player to hit a 50 sack milestone, right? And it was like kind of not close and the biggest and he'd sat for like a year and the biggest reason is because they drafted him before he could drink, right? Like that's like, I don't know if you can still rent the car. Like it's crazy how young he was drafted.

And that's an element too that sometimes gets lost in some of these discussions where somebody who's like 24 that's an element, too, that sometimes gets lost in in some of these discussions, where somebody who's like 24 that test with the roof. It's not quite the same somebody who's 20 who tests pretty well. Right. And I think it has to be baked into all analysis. It's probably gotten more muddy since so many players are staying in college more often. And it doesn't have to be a death knell to your chances. It's just a different evaluation. Yeah, You just have to adjust it and note it. Yeah. And everybody's going to look at that differently.

But I want to circle back to even worry because I wanted to ask you about a bunch of players that have high variance numbers even worry to me when someone's playing in the box in college, it always kind of makes me wonder why aren't they playing the real safety position in college? And I also think, OK, so Josh Mattel is and what Kyle Hamilton? Yeah, they're doing their thing. But how many positions are you really doing that? Like most teams are playing two deep safeties all the time.

And that's where I wonder if we just don't look at a box safety the way we used to. And for the Vikings, if they already have Josh Metellus, is it redundant to draft Imanwari? And Starks would make more sense if they want a safety, not totally convinced the positional value is there to take a safety. But just looking at the numbers as far as players who have a wide variance in them, I don't know who was the most interesting to you. I mean, someone like Jaylen Walker stands out. The most curious to me, because I didn't actually know why so many people were split on him. Like the quarterbacks, I totally get, right? Yeah.

Like Jackson Dart, like played in a weird scheme, but he also like led the league, you know, led the FBS and adjusted yards per attempt or whatever passing metric you want to use He was probably the lead right he had that game where he had like 40 completions in a row or something stupid But like how does that translate right? I can see why there's a lot of variance in that people have different opinions on how a lot of that lands in Quarterbacks are just the most hotly contested whatever right tight ends very difficult to evaluate How much do you care about blocking?

The way people weight that, I get that. A small school guy like Gary's Alexander, I get that. How does that translate to competition? I have no idea why Jalen Walker, I think he's like second or third as like the most polarizing prospect. No clue, like why that's the case. I know that some people think that he's better off the ball,

which I super, I don't, maybe it's a size thing. But like, you know, if there are some people that are like, I think that he's not really an edge rusher in his size, doesn't really lend itself to that. He didn't, he opted out of testing. I know that it is pro day, he mentioned like maybe, you know, there's a not a medical, like kind of a medical-ish reason that he wanted to opt out of testing, I guess. But when you don't have access to that data, that complicates things for a lot of people. In my evaluators versus forecasters piece, I noted that evaluators are just less impressed with the athletic testing process. The workout data seems to matter a little bit less to them than it does to forecasters, where people who

are super athletes are a little bit higher on those boards. And so Jaylen Walker, who doesn't test at all, represents a really interesting, complicating scenario. There are some players who don't test where you're like, I don't care. Marvin Harrison, who cares? Jaylen Walker is not the number one overall player. He might not even be the number one edge rusher. And so now you've got to make decisions

about where he's going to slot. And that doesn't mean a bunch of people are putting him in the second or third round. These variant scores are all adjusted for rank. but it does mean that there are some people who see him as a top five player because of his versatility and some people who see him as a top 20 player because of his versatility, which can be a bad thing, right? Because maybe you're not doing anything well and they don't know really how he's going to succeed. So I don't super know why Jalen Walker is on that list,

but I suspect that's a reason. I know Darius Alexander, aside from the small school stuff, because there's other small school players that are not on that list. But I think that for Darius Alexander, some of it's just like there's a lot of people that don't think it will translate, but his numbers against high level athletes are actually pretty good.

And so there's other question marks there. But Jalen Walker was the most curious one to me because I was like I Wouldn't have expected that going in Shador Sanders. Totally cam ward. I get it He plays pretty volatile style of football, even though people don't really talk about him They talk about Shador back up a Jackson Dart. They talk about Tyler Shuck I don't really talk about cam ward, but he plays a very volatile style and some people are just they don't like that And which you know totally makes sense. That's why we have a consensus board. But yeah like that I think stood out. Other players that kind of stood out I ended up coming

up with like oh Jared Ivy who I don't know if he made the top 20 or but he was like very close. Jared Ivy super productive in college against SCC, not a very good athlete as a tester. Right. So that's going to draw a lot of variance, you know, or from our stewards, the exact opposite. Right. So like those are the kinds of players that can. And I know there's a bunch of Ed Rushers in that list, which is kind of unusual for this year. So I think that was the primary kind of thing for why a lot of these players that end up on this list. So the reason I wanted to bring up Walker specifically is because I just have this feeling.

I don't know. Maybe it'll be completely wrong that someone that is in your top consensus will drop into where the Vikings are at in that top 15. And even when I look at a player like Walker, he's 11th here on your consensus board. And we have seen players in that range drop into the twenties because somebody doesn't see a reason to make him a pure edge rusher or a, you know, a traditional middle linebacker. And they just kind of go, ah, okay, we're going to just draft a Mike Green or somebody instead and just have that

pure edge rusher. Whereas I could see Brian Flores being like, Oh, that looks like a Van Ginkle type of player. And even though this is not a position the Vikings need in any way, it's also that everyone kind of always needs guys who rush the passer. And I haven't put a lot of effort into the edge rushers or the outside linebacker types. But Walker, I have taken a look at.

He is a pretty darn exceptional pass rusher. I'm surprised they didn't just use him as a pass rusher all the time. But he had like one of the highest pass pass rush win rates at his position. Like he was very effective again against like really good SEC tackles, too. And it's not like a Jackson Dirt situation where it's like he puts up a bunch of good numbers at the beginning of the year And then when he goes up against his conference, sorry, I'm not a huge dirt guy. I don't know if that came through but But like when he goes up against his conference suddenly the numbers drop off precipitously that didn't happen for today They arguably they got better, right? So I he's really interesting because he's like six one.

And so like you don't see edge rushers, six one, 240 pounds in the NFL. But like, hey, I feel like a Brian Flores kind of knows how to use that kind of guy. Well, that's why that's what I was thinking. Like, well, he doesn't really care that much about what your height and weight are as evidenced by Ivan Pace Junior and others, but especially Ivan Pace Junior being out there. So Walker is kind of a name along with Jahad Campbell that I've had a little interest in. Maybe they drop another guy that doesn't have the widest variance score, but it's fairly high is Kelvin Banks, Jr.,

because I'm kind of using your consensus board to try to identify like who could slip, who could be that guy? of using your consensus board to try to identify like who could slip, who could be that guy? There's people who say Calvin Banks is going to be the top tackle. And there's other people who say he's a guard and you really only kind of need the NFL to think that he is actually a guard for him to drop to the back part of the first round. And this is a unique draft.

And I think we've changed as a football society on how we view moves from tackle to guard at one time is like, Oh, he's a bum then, but that's not, that's not it now, especially when you see, I mean, even a McKay Bekton goes to guard and has success. You go like, uh, that seemed valuable to me. So, and if you're those guys, I mean, you're probably looking at it and saying, well, if Aaron Banks can get 20 million dollars a year, maybe being a guard isn't that bad of an idea. Imagine if you were a good guard, how good you how much money you'd get.

Just just in general. So Banks is an interesting one for me. Just in general about the about the guards. Zable is 33rd third Jackson, thirty sixth. Where is Booker 31st? They're all kind of in that same range. Yeah. Of the back part of the first rally. What do you make of that?

Yeah. Banks is an interesting one because he I think I have him is a little bit higher on the forecaster boards. I haven't updated the big consensus board yet with the forecaster rankings yet. But I think he's a bit higher on the forecaster boards. And I was talking to somebody about this. I was like, hey, so Banks is kind of interesting because I actually don't super see him as like a top eight guy, but like here he is in some of these boards. And this person who is not connected with the team, so it's not from inside the league,

but has talked to people who are connected with teams. It's like, my suspicion is that teams that are attempting to put together a smoke screen, take a look at a guy that's reasonably good, Kelp Banks is quite good, right? Reasonably good and doesn't really have character concerns and just prop them up. And then that guy ends up going, like, being pushed higher in like mock drafts. And I think right

now there's just like, like two hours before we started recording, there's some steam that he's going to be a Jaguar right instead of instead of the Michigan tackle. You know, I think some of that is just like, we're going to pick a guy that no one's really going to question that we would take him. But also like we're not that concerned if he's off the board by the time we actually pick or something like that. And the guy I was talking to was like, I think Kelvin Banks is that guy. And I was like, who has that guy been in the past? And, you know, he gave me some names. I already forgot them. But it seemed to check out.

So that's something that's like kind of interesting. The thing about Banks is that he's like really long. And so converting him to to guard's kind of interesting. The thing about Banks is that he's really long. And so converting him to guard is kind of interesting. I remember we've both covered Mike Zimmer, and he talked about kind of the challenges of converting Oli Udo to guard. He talked about how it was successful for Mike Harris, who wasn't actually nearly as long as Oli Udo,

but had tackle length, right? And this guy's got like 82-inch wings, 34 inch arms, like it's a crazy situation to move to guard. But if he can move his arms fast enough, like then that's probably kind of all you need, somebody who can move his hands in position. He would be kind of interesting because he certainly has the athleticism to do what the Vikings want at that position, which is an open question about some of these guys, like Tyler Booker, for example, of course. But I. Him kind of falling would not be a huge shock to me for sure.

There's an interesting trend of the Vikings bringing in tackles. And my theory is that they're bringing in them to look at them as guards. Like, what would you what would you look like? Ariante or say the Minnesota guy? I don't think six. Yeah, I don't think he's a. But when you see a MacGyver, I didn't. Yeah. And who was it?

Was it Jonathan Ogden that played guard for a couple of years? I know he's like the greatest player of all time, but he played. I don't think it's I think it's a little bit of a myth that a guy can't be six foot six. I don't know why the name Kevin Goggin comes to mind for me, but like remember him. He was just enormous. But you could say that for, I mean, Steve Hutchinson is pretty big. Yes, I just did. And then then boom, you know, you.

Right. Right. And he was supposed to be right. He was a tackle in college. Right. And then he was supposed to be a tackle when he was a late round draft pick for the 49ers, right? He was supposed to be a tackle and they moved him to guard and he was a lead at that And which is why he earned the contract and deal with the Vikings but like, you know that yeah

I mean he was he's like a six six guy I think right I Know in my database somewhere there's a six seven guard that played for a couple of years So that does happen, but it is unusual. Teams do talk about the challenges of that. But like if you're supposed to be a really high level offensive tackle, one of the advantages many of those players have is how quickly their hands move. That's like such an important skill. And you need that skill a little bit more in guard than you do in tackle. There's other tackle skills that make that a more valuable position. But if you've got these long arms and you can move them reasonably quickly,

and you've got the ability to generate a lot of force despite kind of the longer reach that you have to put, I mean, yeah, I don't see why... Bekton is a really good example of somebody with really fast hands and an insane punch that despite his length is going to hit you hard. That, you know, might be that kind of model where it's like, yeah, okay, he's a tackle. Great. A fine. And a lot of times, too. I mean, the detailed footwork as a tackle like that,

as if you're even going to play at a high level university like Texas, you're doing a lot of detailed footwork that is down to the inch of your steps. Well, I mean, if you're the dancing bear, if you will, on the inside, even if there's a little bit of a shortcoming there and you're not the perfect six foot three and three twenty and you look like, I don't know, Larry Allen or something and you're just this stout guy. I mean, even if you're not that, if you have these other things to make up for it and that's what a lot of the office of lineman will talk about is that no one is built exactly perfect

except for maybe Orlando pace to play any position. You're always going to have something that you might have to make adjustments for, like Brian O'Neill doesn't have the longest arms I've ever seen in my life, but he makes up for it with athleticism and footwork as a former basketball player and tight end. You're going to have to do that. So I look at some of these tackles and say, well, also, what's the most important thing? Yeah, sure. They want to run the ball. Does Kevin O'Connell really want to run the ball? Probably not.

Historically, no, not at all. Really? He what? Well, what's what's going to determine whether JJ McCarthy succeeds or not? It's going to be one thing is how well he is protected. And I think I mean with someone like Jalen hurts, I have a ton of respect for Jalen hurts. I think he's a great quarterback certainly helps to sit back there with those guys in front of you and it would with McCarthy as well. So you can convince me that okay, this guy's not a perfect run blocker. We'll just figure it out. But if he's got the pass protection, then that's going to be really good for you for the next coming years. How about what do you feel like with the the cornerback position? Because this is one where my sort of hot take was that Jaday Baron might drop into the 20s.

It's a little less hot when you've got him at 13. It's not that far of a drop, but the corners are almost all stacked in the same exact spot in everyone's draft. And it's similar to yours. It's all that Siobhan Ravel at 35, Trey Amos at 38, Maxwell Harrison at 39, Benjamin Morrison at 42. Like I'm sensing a trend. Right. Azaria Thomas at 44. Every one of these guys seems to be in the back end of the first or really mostly the second round. Do we think that's how it's going to go? Because I would tend to agree with the consensus on this,

that if the Vikings wanted to trade back, they should have availability for maybe several different corners that they could pick from. Yeah. Yeah. I've run a couple of, um, what do we want to call it? Simulations. Um, they're not mock drafts or simulations, right?

Okay. Um, yeah, I've run a couple of those, right? Using the, the consensus board as kind of the guide for where players will go. And it's just a super awkward place where the Vikings pick a 24 to draft someone. Like, you might get a safety that you like. You might get Kenneth Grant default that's occurred like in 1 in 10 simulations. Not a bad hit rate for a player that good.

But for the most part, it's just like a bunch of players that are not hitting a need. And so it feels really tempting to trade back back because I think it makes the most sense this could be another situation where the Vikings trade back and the the all of the pick charts will say That was analytically like a pretty decent trade, but the the market You know charts think that he lost a lot of value there And it's like yeah because no one wants to trade up

And this could be a situation where the Vikings see a lot more value in that 38 range Then other teams will and so they'll take that discount to trade down to try and grab something that because yeah I mean it very much looks like whatever your flavor of quarterback is unless Jada Baron falls or like I don't know will Johnson right Unless Jadai Baron falls, or like, I don't know, Will Johnson, right? Unless somebody falls, like, you're just going to be in a spot where you're like, hey, how much

do I like Malachi Stark? Like, how much really, how much do you? I have to think about this like hard, because then I could decide to trade back. Maybe I'll get Benjamin Morrison, who's the right size for a lot of people. It would solve the quarterback size issue the Vikings have. Or I could get Zoria Thomas, despite the fact that he doesn't for a lot of people it would solve the cornerback size issue the Vikings have or I could get Sorry Thomas despite the fact that he doesn't have a lot of interceptions

It seems like he does have an understanding where the ball should be Maybe we could work with that you guess von Ravel who is injured in our medicals clear him But he also like if our medicals clear him He's got like, you know the most cornerback attitude of these guys like you know There's a lot of reasons that you might trade back and you can pick your favorite one or whoever is left if you've got three or four that you like. I think it makes the most sense that the Vikings

are clear candidates to trade down. The problem is just not a ton of candidates to trade up unless there's only like one more edge rusher left in the board. Or if a team really does like Jalen Milrow as much as the Steam suggested two days ago, which may have changed, or Jackson Darder or whoever. Right. Like if there's a quarterback, the teams want a fifth year option

for the all important fifth year option, then maybe, you know, but like, that's going to be a really tough market to kind of handle. I also think if the Vikings were to draft, let's just throw Trey Amos out there with the 24th pick. And he's whatever I said, 38 or something on the consensus board. I'm sure we'll get some the Vikings reach they were. But I think in a draft like this, if teams are not willing to trade up with you and you really like the fit of somebody, you should just do it.

Like historically, maybe it's a reach. But I also think that we need to decide what is really a reach that could be destructive and what is not necessarily that much. I mean, in this year, how much of a difference is there between 24 and 38 on a consensus board between the caliber of prospects, maybe in some other years that is more significant,

but maybe this is just the warning because the Mackay Blackman stuff drove me crazy a couple of years ago and it was just like, Brian Flores thinks this guy's going to be a fit in the middle round, take them. It's fine. It's a third round pick. But I think this year that the structure of just the players coming out and the gaps between number 24, 25, 26, 27, et cetera, is so small that if you pick the 38th player,

I don't know, what do you consider a huge reach versus your consensus board? No, that's a really good question. I think one thing that so first of all, like people would just kind of assume that my opinion on a team's draft class is just the consensus board. Right. Right. Like I'll defer to it. I have no brain.

Yeah, right. Yes. Consensus board. Yeah. But at one point, like I remember I was praising the Eagles draft class. Um, it might've been last year too. It wasn't the one where they got like all the Georgia players. Um, but like I was praising an Eagles draft class and somebody was like, Hey, they, it's, it's clearly like your favorite draft class out of all of these. But like, they were like third in your like draft class grades or whatever. Like what, what is the reason? It's like, well, first of all, that's just some numbers.

The second, I just like the players that they picked. One of the reaches that they had was Jalex Hunt that year. And that was a huge reach. It's like, I loved that pick. I don't care that they reached 20 picks to grab him. I think that there's a certain parameters by which you can evaluate some of these picks and acknowledge that maybe the consensus opinion on this is this. And if you're like maybe judicious about it or whatever, you can acknowledge that in this context it made a lot of sense. For me, I think that if you reach on someone and they happen to have a high variance score, which all of these corners that we named actually have fairly low variance scores. But just as an example, if you reach on someone and they happen to have a high variance score, which all these corners that we named actually have fairly low variance scores.

But just as an example, if you reach on someone and they happen to have a high variance score, my data suggests that that is much less likely to be a bust. Because now you've got a lot more people who believe that this guy's actually a lot better. Most people believe that he's going to be worse. But people who believe he's going to be a lot better. And that data is meaningful.

So the more divisive players, when you reach for them, are more likely to hit. And the thing is, when they hit, they hit big. These are your Josh Allens, your Patrick Mahomes, et cetera. Those are the most divisive players in a draft. And when they hit, and they hit a little bit less often, but they hit a little bit more than reaches typically do, they tend to hit pretty big.

And so if you've got a pretty good reason that you like a guy, I think Rick Woollen is a good example of somebody who was a reach but also was a high variance prospect. And I think that they've gotten more than fourth round value out of him. So that's something to kind of consider. I was really surprised actually that Siobhan Ravel has a relatively low variance score. It's like an 84. It's like so he's getting in the lower range of variance Because the questions that he has he's a small school guy with an injury history The questions that he has lend itself to high variance, but people seem to like him. They just don't want to love him

But if the Vikings love him, I totally understand. E rules, in my opinion. Tri Amos is really good. Chavon Ravelle is really good. Those are probably the two guys. I think after that, I do like the Azaria Thomas, the Florida State guy. I'm not as big on Benjamin Morrison, but I see the vision for all of these players. So if you don't get a trade partner and you just want to pick your favorite out of those four, or only one of those actually is appealing to you, the rest are not system fits or not attitude fits or not athletic fits, whatever. And you're like, if we try down, there's a good chance that all four of these guys will be there or only three of those guys.

But our guy is going to be the one that's gone. So, yeah, then you make a pick at some point. You have to acknowledge that there is a market for trading down. And sometimes that market is not meeting your demand. I think Revelle is an interesting one for if you call it a reach. I just can't really be convinced it's a reach because they have more information than we do about his health. And I think that's what's bumping him down the small sample size issue.

And I wouldn't be surprised if it's Revelle for them because he is kind of a nasty player. And that's what I think they're looking for. And maybe someone because they do have starters for right now that they can develop over a couple of years. They're in a spot to do that. So how about we finish on this reef? Who do you like the most?

Who do you think that the Minnesota Vikings will go with? I like a dual Carter a lot. No, I think Travis Hunter trade down, then also get Abdul Carter. Yeah, right. Great. Yeah, I think in terms of the players that I like the most that could be connected potentially to the Vikings, assuming it's not like that 10% scenario with Kenneth Grant, man, and nothing about a Kelvin Banks, I didn't really consider him as a potential Vikings pick.

I do kind of like him as that guy more than Tyler Booker. I of course don't like NDSU players, so I have to avoid Grazeable. But I like Donovan Jackson a little bit. These corners, I really like this group of corners. My favorite for a long time has been Jaday Baron. But he's been moving up and then he moved down a little bit. But there was a period of time, I think in January, where he's been moving up and then he moved down a little bit But he's but like there was a period of time

I think in January where he seemed like to be perfectly fit in that like 20s range and then he moved up the board all The way to like 10 and now he's around, you know 1317 and And so he doesn't seem possible, but I think that's the guy, you know People been asking me about you. That's the guy that I like a lot has a lot of inside out versus He didn't play as much inside this year played it last year. They had mccuba do it a lot this year But he he's played safety. He's played overhang. He's played outside corner, and I think you know if you're good and versatile There's a lot of versatile players. We're not that good And you're in a position for me for the Vikings

I just I can't not imagine that being a fit. So he's probably my guy if I'm allowed to pick somebody who's ranked 13. I think that they really love guys who communicate well also. And when you listen, you can go back and find it, I'm sure somewhere. Him at the combine was like, this guy sounds like a Viking to me. We spend a lot of time, you know, listen to these guys talk. And when you listen to a Harrison Smith or a Josh Mattelis or can't

bind him when he's here or remember what Anthony Harris was like, right. Anthony Harris, they really love communicators, especially in the secondary. And he really fits that bill for me. Now, let's say that that's not likely. Who do you think is the most likely? The most likely assuming that they're going to pass on, you know, an edge rusher. Probably not Josh Simmons. I think he's probably just tackle only. Man, I think the most likely is going to be one of these safeties. I wouldn't be surprised if they reached a little bit for Macuba again, because the versatility stuff, actually it looks like it'd be a pretty significant reach.

But I think I wouldn't be shocked if they ended up with Michael Williams, because I think- Really? Yeah, it's not like the most mocked. I think he's actually like the third most mocked to the Vikings. But I think you're right that like, obviously there's some value in versatility, but I think

that you're right that like we have Josh Metellus. And it turns out that Josh Metellus at home is probably better than the one that, and so like we have to, they lose Cam Bynum. They don't necessarily have to have a traditional too high guy, but you do need that role fulfilled by someone. And I don't necessarily think Theo Jackson is the end all be all solution to that. Plus you want a long term answer to Harrison Smith anyway. And so I think Michael Williams, who is somebody that you can have play the run who is somebody that can blitz a little bit. It's not exactly, you know the the

The macubas the jedi barons or whatever But it is a little bit more versatile than I think a lot of people give them credit for I think michael williams is a pretty good You know odds on chance of ending up being a viking, especially if they don't trade down Are you meaning melakai starks Sorry. Oh, my God. Yes. I was like, see these Georgia guys and Williams. Oh, yeah. I know. I was dark because my mind was like, my brain was looking like Michael Williams.

OK. Melchizedek. Yeah. Yeah. On my radar, you are not forgiven, even though you've been lily fried and we're 47 minutes into the conversation. But no, Melkis Starks has been one of those guys where I've had, like, if they stick and pick, they get a good grade for me because he's such a good fit for them. And he is a guy who's played nickel corner, which I think speaks to his movement skill that they're going to need.

Carmen. I think that they look at DT is something contribute right away. And it's also a spot where you cannot find in free agency. You just can't, you just, I mean, it costs so much money. Talk about a producer, by the way, Derek Harmon, right? So much, right. Yeah. And that's what they've really targeted over the last few years.

I mean, Dallas Turner will see where he goes, but very productive. Jordan Addison, very productive. Mackay Blackman, same sort of thing. So they have drafted a lot of guys for production recently to go along with what they think of them. And the fact that you don't have to put a lot of pressure on him right away, but he can help, I think would be meaningful as well. Well, we'll see how it goes.

Arif, make sure that you go over to wide left dot football, which is where Arif's writing and his consensus board is. And I think for the main consensus board, people can view it either way, and then they can look at the rest of your stuff and decide whether you're worth it to sign up. I would highly suggest it. You do great writing and analysis over there. Wide left dot football. The name is unnerving, I'm sure, for Vikings fans,

but I think they can all figure that out. So anyway, Arif. Great to get together with my friend. I can't wait to attend some links games with you this year. I'm ready for W season. Yeah, let's go. Pumped. Hell yeah. All right. Hell yeah.

Goodbye football. Football.