Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - What if Malik Willis is available? Would Favre have won the 2017 Super Bowl? A Fans Only podcast

Episode Date: April 6, 2022

Matthew Coller analyzes fan questions from Twitter, including whether the Minnesota Vikings' owners believe they can Eli Manning their way to a Super Bowl, what the Vikings' plans at quarterback are long term and whether they would pick Malik Willis if he was available. How would they handle the 12th pick if Pittsburgh offered a trade down? Will the Vikings win 1.5 or more playoff games in the next four years? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, welcome to another episode of Purple Insider, Matthew Collar here, and this is a fans-only podcast where I take your questions from Twitter and answer them. And the biggest key is that I do not read them beforehand. So I could just give you my instant reactions and sometimes look stuff up on the fly and give you the best answers that I can to all of your Minnesota Vikings questions. So I usually put out a call for these on Twitter. But even if you send me one at random and say, hey, this is for the podcast or email me if you go to purpleinsider.com and say, hey,

this is for fans only podcast. Can you answer this question? Then I will put it in there. And it usually takes a few episodes to get through everybody's questions, but I'm trying to answer all of them. Even if some are similar, I'll try to look for a different angle that we could talk about. So let's get right into it. I have, as always, the Diet Dr. Pepper. All right, we're ready to go. Let's start with this. This is from at AVG Vikes fans. I'm sorry, at AVG, so averageverage Vikes Fan. Okay, he says, Fans only question, are the Wilfs modeling their franchise around the New York Giants, Eli, Baltimore Flacco plan? Just try to get in and get lucky.

Seems like major outliers. Well, you know, when they keep bringing up the idea of just getting in and then seeing what happens, that makes you wonder if that has shaped their view. And last year, two four seeds got to the Super Bowl and maybe that solidified their view. Now, for many years, it was either a one or a two. And now I think things can be a little more random because there isn't two automatic home field advantage teams. So I think that that helps in terms of the randomness of going through the playoffs without being that number one seed. But one thing is it's always hard to answer Wilf's questions because

is that just something that they say knowing that this team is not at a point where they can really compete to win 14 games and saying okay well then we set our bar at the playoffs and then let's see what happens i think a lot of us who look at it as super bowl or nothing um then or let's just even say NFC Championship, that's a true success of a season. If you get there, then you're right on the doorstep of the Super Bowl, then you've done a lot of things right, and you've had a great year. If that's the way you're looking at it, then it's very hard to argue, okay, yeah, after last year where they won eight games, they're suddenly going to jump up to 13

and jump up to be an NFC championship contender. I'm not saying that's impossible. It's just that the odds kind of go against that. Now the odds for the Vikings to make the playoffs, as of this moment, Vegas says that the odds are a little bit against them, but only a little bit. So they're right there on that cusp.

And I think that what the Wilfs try to do is set the expectations publicly at let's make the playoffs. That's what we're aiming for. And then we see what happens. But I mean, I also think it's kind of an indictment on where you stand, which is, you know, you're having to say not the Superbowl, but instead just the playoffs are the goal. So I don't know if they truly believe that or it's just kind of the reality of where things stand at this moment, which is if this team has some things go right, they make the playoffs and they're a good team.

And then you never know. And a lot of, lot of, lot of things would have to go right for them to be a great team and to win 13 or to win 14, you would have to have one of those magical once in every two decade types of seasons where everything comes together. So I don't know if I'm properly answering the question because I don't, I don't feel like I have the ability to say this is what they truly think. Their actions would suggest that they do believe in this. But I also think that if maybe Drew Brees was their quarterback or Peyton Manning,

that maybe we wouldn't talk about just trying to get in. So, yeah, I don't know. That's a tough one. But I also think that it's very important to them to never be terrible, that they never want to Jaguars, the Texans, you're tanking, you're trying to get the first overall pick. It seems like they don't believe in that. And that could be shaped by them being Giants fans initially and the Tom Coughlin era, how they were year after year, pretty competitive and eventually just broke through but as we remember a lot of lot of lot of things had to go right for those situations to come about for Joe Flacco to win a Super Bowl

for Eli Manning to win too I would also say that upon a deeper investigation of Eli Manning's statistics I mean you could tell that he was at that time one of the best quarterbacks in the league now that's not quarterback rating that's looking at how rarely he took sacks his big time throws his aggressiveness his physical ability the arm talent to make that throw to was it Mario Manningham down the sideline and I think that those things have to play in that at that time if you're running back one of the best quarterbacks in the league that doesn doesn't mean Brady, but right below that, that things can come together for you in a specific year if everything goes right. And I think that the Vikings are hoping that Kirk Cousins is that. It hasn't bared out so far, and they're putting a lot of chips on Kevin O'Connell being the guy that gets that to happen. And I think that if they want

Kevin O'Connell to be that guy to get that to happen, they could still use another weapon. They could still improve the offensive line specifically, specifically at the center position when it comes to blocking. So there's some stuff to do here, but yeah, I think that if you were to guess, you would say that they are kind of in a position where they have to say that because of what they have. And it's realistic to make the playoffs, but not to go much farther than that with what they have on the roster at this moment. And those things can change.

Okay, explain void years like I'm a five-year-old and why the Vikings are using so many of them in contracts. This comes from E. Grabuski on Twitter. Well, void years are basically dummy years that are added onto a contract. So let's say that you make it a five-year contract, but it's three void years. So that means that those will never happen. They do not exist. And as soon as the real years are done with, the contract automatically voids and is over. So it's really a two-year deal. And the three years are just cap spread onto those

three seasons. Now, why this is allowed allowed that is a different question that i do not have an answer to but that's the way you would explain it um if you were five is just that they're dummy years that allow a team to spread some of the cap hit for a player onto but then those end up being dead cap later and the reason that the that the Vikings are doing it is because they put themselves, not Kweisi Adafo Mensah, obviously, in a very tough position in the past by keeping everyone and signing everyone to extensions that was good and adding void years in the past. And so it's kind of one of those things where it snowballs.

You give void years to Anthony Barr, and then it's $9 million dead cap this year. So you're in a cap crunch, but you need to sign Zedarius Smith. So you, I don't think his contract actually has void years. So you need to say, keep Daniel Hunter, but lower his cap hit. So you restructure and you add void gears and like, it just keeps going and going. And the only way out of that is to just eat it and get rid of people. And that was something that they were not willing to do. So instead they decided to kind of

keep building the snowman. And at some point, I guess it will have to melt and they'll have to get cap healthy. I mean, that's the difference. Like they're cap compliant, but every team is cap compliant. And so they do that to make sure they're cap compliant by adding these void years, lowering cap hits and paying for it later. And that's when we say kick the can down the road. That's what we mean is that you're paying for it later if that player, when they get to the end of their contract, is not extended. So that's the one way around it.

So let's say with Kirk Cousins, he's set in 2024 to have a $12 million void year. But if they were to extend him, that would go away. I don't think it exactly completely goes away, but you can deal with that better if you give that player an extension. So if they were to have signed Anthony Barr to an extension, it would have dealt with that. Brad Spielberger for PFF would understand a little bit more in detail as if you were say a 14 year old, he could tell you the 14 year old version. I could tell you the five-year-old version. But yeah yeah it's basically when you paint yourself into a corner um this is trying to paint yourself back out and you know it works in the short term in the long term there just are always consequences to pay um and i think we've seen a lot of that around the league this year of teams that added

void years and things like that that uh they ultimately ended up paying for it. So, you know, the Vikings doing it, it doesn't destroy their franchise. It just when they get down the road. And I think what they're doing is probably looking at 2024 and saying a lot of these key players will just not be here. And let's try to win with them in this small window these next two seasons and see where we're at and then the real rebuild or i i guess they would hope that players that they've drafted will have emerged by then by 2024 so they're going to in theory have these guys leave like adam thielen dalvin whatever, after 2023,

and then have players that they drafted take those spots so their rookie deals won't hurt too much on the cap and so forth. Now, that's the ideal world that they're going to have to hope comes to fruition because they've made their cap tighter down the road. And I've heard people say, well, doesn't the cap go up? Yes, but for everyone, not just for you. So, you know, when Joe Tooney signs like an $80 million deal for a guard, everyone's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a minute. Since when are guards worth $80 million?

Since the league has more money than it did last year, and it will have more money next year and more money the next year. And everybody is allowed to spend the same amount. So it's not a situation where your cap goes up and everyone else stays the same. If that was the case, then none of this would matter. And I guess that's why we end up getting all, you know, I guess that's why we end up talking about it as much as we do is because there's two games that go on the NFL. And this is why the NFL is so great is there's the games on the field. There's the scheme, there's the matchup and there's, you know, two quarterbacks, two coaches, whatever, 22 players, all that. And that happens every Sunday for 17 weeks and into the playoffs. And then there's another game, which is where you have to manage this number and you have to put together the most talent you can.

Like that's the front office game. So if this were like a board game, it would have two different parts. You would have to play the coach game and you would have to play the front office game. And I think that one of the most exciting parts of studying the NFL is the fact that there's two different games. And I, I mean, I've talked to people, Vikings fans who enjoy the off season game more than they do the regular season game, because it's like a puzzle and you're trying to figure out how they're going to put it all together. And I mean, this off season is great evidence of how fun that can be. And I think that this year, what they've done

is they have moved the pieces around to put together the puzzle to have a roster that will be competitive. But what they've done is some of the same stuff that Rick Spielman did to get them in this position. So the answer is kind of how do you get out of the cycle? All right, let's take a sip of Diet Dr. Pepper and we'll move on.

Hopefully that helps. Hopefully that helps you understand why it's such a discussion. This comes from at Wisconsin Danny. So mighty Matthew is temporary GM of our beloved Vikings team. Come draft day. Do you have a defensive end, uh, Thibodeau and Johnson. Yeah, Johnson. Hamilton. So Kyle Hamilton. So you mean Kayvon Thibodeau, Johnson, the edge rusher from Florida, Kyle Hamilton, Malik Willis, and Derek Stingley all on the board, plus Pittsburgh calling to move up and offering a 2023 first-round pick. Rank your order.

All right, got it. So let me just clarify that because I was working my way through it. You have cave on Thibodeau. You got Kyle Hamilton, Malik Willis, Derek Stingley. They're all on the board and Pittsburgh is calling me. Apparently I am the GM and they're offering a 2023 first round pick. What am I doing? Basically, what's your order of doing those things? Well, I mean, I think that the first has to be, the first choice has to be drafting Malik Willis, does it not? I mean, I just, when it's a prospect with those types of raw tools, I am very much willing to look past some of the shortcomings, if not a lot of the shortcomings of Malik Willis to be very interested in drafting

him and taking that shot because he's going to be worth long-term simply more than anybody else i mean just if he succeeds and k von tibido succeeds then malik willis will be so much more valuable and the same thing goes for derrick stingley which i hey look i mean a shutdown corner an elite pass rusher those are great but if the quarterback isn't great or you're not getting a lot out of him where are are you headed? There's lots of teams that aren't good that have an elite player somewhere on the field. Um, and so I think that, uh, you also, you're referring to, uh, Jermaine Johnson. I was like, John, there's a lot of players named Johnson. So I had to double check that that's who you meant. Okay. So you have Jermaine Johnson. I'm not sure how good of a prospect he is. He's really shot up since the senior bowl. And that one, I would be a little bit cautious on that. He was more of a mid first

round, late first round. And then as all of a sudden a really high prospect after an all-star game, not only that, an all-star game practice, I didn't even play in the game. Thibodeau, I'm very interested in here. And if you removed Malik Willis from this conversation, I think I'm taking Thibodeau because this guy has number one overall pick talent and is dropping for other reasons that have not, that no one's really put specifics on his personality. He's interested in making money. He's overconfident. Like, I don't know if it, maybe if he, if I'm using the number one pick, some of those things might be a concern, but for the number 12 pick, I mean, know if maybe if he if I'm using the number one pick, some of those things might be a concern. But for the number 12 pick, I mean, just go for it and hope you get the best edge rusher in the world.

Kyle Hamilton, the safety. I mean, the positional value here is probably not quite there, even though he seems to be a very, very good prospect who was talked about as being at the very top. And I ran a quick draft sim to see kind of like where PFF expects these people to go. And they had Kyle Hamilton second. So that's another one that's very, very good value. But, you know, so if you take Malik Willis out of this conversation, I'm probably taking Kayvon Thibodeau or I'm probably trading down. But Willis is the one that you just have to take. And then if you make a mistake with Malik Willis and he's not good after a year well you still have Kirk Cousins as your quarterback for 2023

so if you draft someone this year and they're not good it does hurt you long term for sure because you don't have Thibodeau and you don't have Derek Stingley but it doesn't destroy you long term to miss on a quarterback with theingley, but it doesn't destroy you long-term to miss on a quarterback with the number 12 overall pick. It doesn't ruin your franchise. The Vikings have missed on other first round draft picks that didn't necessarily work out. It didn't wreck their franchise. But what you can do there is if you drafted Malik Willis, you go through a year, you feel like this guy is just nowhere close, does not have it. You could play Kirk Cousins in 2023. In fact, you could even keep just Malik Willis as your backup,

or you could draft someone else. And that sounds like, oh man, you're wasting a ton of draft picks, but we just overvalue how hard these things are to replace in free agency. Can you get past Russian free agency? There's like five guys on the market right now who can still rush the passer. I mean, in the middle of the season last year, Kansas City traded for Melvin Ingram and he had a top 25 pass rush win rate. The Vikings picked up Everson Griffin right before training camp and he was rushing the passer. The Vikings, I mean, have missed on a bunch of pass rush prospects and they still sack the quarterback 50 times last year like these things you can create quarterback play

great quarterback play a dude who throws it 75 yards and runs a 4-5 and has explosive running ability i mean those things are are hard now if you told me Kenny Pickett, I don't know. Desmond Ritter, I don't know. I think Willis is really a lot better than the other prospects in terms of his raw ability and his chances to become that guy. So Willis, long way of saying, Willis would be my top selection there. And then Thibodeau. And after that, I'm trading down. Although Stingley is very interesting. Okay, so maybe let me change that.

It'd be Willis. I would take Willis. I would take Thibodeau. I would take Stingley just with the 12th pick. Any of the others, Hamilton or Johnson, I'll just trade down and take that other first round pick. I can only have people who are going to be like foundational pieces of the most valuable positions at number 12. Otherwise, I want that pick.

Great question, Wisconsin Donnie. Really appreciate that. Okay, this is from at MJJ Otto fan. Do you get the sense that Wyatt Davis will be in a better place this year? Did his off, uh, did his year off finger quotes help his knee to heal? I'm curious if the attention and teaching acumen of the new staff will be enough to help him find a place on the O-line. Um, with Wyatt Davis, I look at it like there is a chance that wyatt davis shows up at training camp and is just an absolute adonis of a man and he's throwing people left and right harrison phillips is coming

off the field saying get me away from wyatt davis man i just can't take it he's killing me out there possible uh because he has raw talent enough to be drafted in the third round and play for ohio state and at one point even some people considered him a first round prospect uh but you know the more likely outcome is that when somebody can't get on the field at all in their first year i mean not even at all not even when they were active and they put blake brandle out there instead. The more likely outcome is that Phil Rauscher, who would be the one handling those offensive line decisions, knew what he was talking about. That's more likely than it is that the last coaching staff had no idea because we always pin everything on Mike Zimmer.

But this decision would have been Phil Rauscher. And I think that Phil Rauscher is a good offensive line coach. I don't think that they looked lost last year as a unit. I think they had one weakness specifically on the center to right side of the offensive line. But even then, they probably made the right call by keeping Mason Cole in. So there have been past years where we've wondered if the offensive line coach made a difference. Tony Sperano, when he passed away, that was very,

very tough for Clancy Barone to just come in and start taking over the offensive line. But, you know, with this, I, I, it's hard to believe that they were just watching this guy every single day and were totally clueless about his unbelievable ability to become a great offensive lineman. I would just say that the first offseason is the most important offseason. That's the time where guys can take the biggest steps. And so if it's going to happen, then it's going to happen this year.

And that's why you never bail right away on a prospect. And that's kind of the KJ Osborne thing, right? Is he didn't get in the game at all in his first year and then he comes back in minicamp and he's catching everything and he looks good and he emerges and that does happen. And so I'm not ready to write off Wyatt Davis, but I'm also not ready to talk myself into it by saying, you know, look, uh, well, he's working out with this guy with Duke many weather who I know. And Duke many weather is a tremendous, tremendous offensive line trainer,

but he's not a miracle worker. Like, it's not like you go to Duke and then you just become the best lineman. Like you have to work at it and you have to have the talent and everything else. And you just don't know. So I think that there's always an intrigue with players who are drafted by the Vikings of, Hey, what can they become? Can they grow? Was it someone else's fault? All those things. But usually you have kind of a pretty good sense right away of what they are. So the odds lean pretty heavily that, you know, it just might not be there, but if it's going to be there, we're going to figure it out pretty quick, not in mini camp, but in training camp, if we start seeing him, seeing him getting opportunities like over Chris Reid or over Jesse Davis, then we're going to know, okay, there's something there.

So certainly not writing him off yet, but I also wouldn't go down the path of, hey, what if this and that and everything else? Well, where you are right now with Wyatt Davis is not in a great spot in terms of the possibilities for him to make it long term and i think that because of that they did the right thing in bringing in jesse davis and chris reed and saying all right we're not going to just hope and dream that this third round pick who didn't get on the field is going to magically take this step forward. If he does, it's a massive bonus. All right. This comes from at Buck Wallert, put 09 Favre on the 2015 or 2017 team and any of the cousins years. How many times do the Vikings make the Superbowl? Okay. This is a two-part question, or if this is more interesting, put cousins on the four Super Bowl teams. Do they actually win one?

Also, Joe Webb, 1961. How many total yards? Okay, so the second part of that, Fran Tarkenton, when he retired, was considered by many people the greatest quarterback to ever play. So, I mean, if you look at the records, the NFL passing records, and consider he was a great runner as well. Um, French Harkington owned basically all of them when he retired, he was an incredible quarterback, uh, that people who study that era say is the most underappreciated, but like long-term because he didn't win a super bowl. And because the defenses defined those Minnesota Vikings teams.

But when you talk about quarterbacks from that era, it's like Len Dawson, Bart Starr. I mean, Namath gets thrown in there, but he's probably overrated because of the Super Bowl, but like Namath and Fran Tarkenton is just as good or better than any of them. So how many Super Bowls does Kirk Cousins win on those teams? The answer is zero because relative to Fran Tarkenton, he's not close. Like what they did in their era, Fran Tarkenton would be like Mahomes. Like I mean that, like he would of that era, the guy who is making all the plays, running around, doing crazy stuff, putting up numbers that nobody had ever seen before. That was Fran Tarkenton. That's how great he was in that era. And, uh, well, you know, he wasn't, he wasn't the 13th best quarterback in the league. That's the point. He was one, two, or three

pretty much every year he was with the Vikings. So, uh, I would not say that he would have won any of the Superbowls, uh, Favre though on the 2017 team, I mean, look, you can never say the Vikings would have won a Superbowl because Vikings, but Favre, 09 Favre on the 2017 Vikings. Gosh, I mean, there's a case you could say that, you know, 2017 Bradford on the 2017 Vikings has a great chance to win that Superbowl. I mean, there's a Warren moon 94 wins that Superbowl. There's yeah. I mean that team and that year, it all just came together. It kind of did an Oh nine too. If you go back and look, and I'm not downplaying Oh nine because it was, you know, incredible showing by Brett Favre. They did have a pretty easy schedule that kind of helped. I mean, I don't think that was really the case for 2017 that it was schedule,

but it did not hurt that Aaron Rodgers went down on the second drive of the game the first time they played the Vikings, and then the Packers were just completely out of that race for the entire rest of the season. But, I mean, Favre still having all of the juice on his fastball, the leadership. I mean, Case Keenum brought that as well. And Keenum played extremely well,

by the way. I mean, this is kind of how quarterback play can work when you have an unbelievable team is that for a year it could pop up. And if somebody is competent enough, just good enough, he could still have a great random year and that's what Keenum had so it wasn't like Keenum was really it wasn't like Keenum was Kerry Collins the time that he won 13 games where Collins did nothing and threw for like

six yards of pass but somehow they won 13 Keenum was legit good but Favre going into that playoff game in Philly I mean the thing into that playoff game in Philly. I mean, the thing about that playoff game in Philly too is we remember the final score and it was what it was. But there were opportunities early in that game for the Vikings to get ahead and make things really difficult on Nick Foles. And they just didn't cash in. And then everything unraveled, the interception and so forth.

I would say that a key game turning interception by a Vikings quarterback does sound a little farvey, but yeah, I think that team has got a chance. 2015 maybe would have been a little harder. I don't think the team was as strong that year. I mean, Diggs and Thielen were not Diggs and Thielen at that point, but 2017 far of throwing to Diggs and Thielen were not Diggs and Thielen at that point, but 2017 far of throwing to Diggs and Thielen would have been really something. Uh, all right. This from, uh, uh, Koskinos John. Sorry if I'm pronouncing that wrong on Twitter. Uh, why do no draft boards having a take, have us taking a quarterback? Well, because the Vikings extended Kirk Cousins. That's why I know mock drafts have you taking a quarterback. And I think the assumption is that, you know,

the Vikings want to wait until after 2022 and that they wouldn't pick a quarterback now and then have to wait two years before moving on from Kirk Cousins. I think if you're doing a pie chart of positions and we just put defensive end, corner, receiver, quarterback, quarterback probably only gets about 10% of it, but I would still give it 10% because the scenario that was laid out earlier and that I fumbled over was that there's a lot of talent there, but Malik Willis surprises us and gets past some of those quarterback needy teams like Atlanta or like, you know, Detroit, maybe looking for a future quarterback. And then if you're the Vikings and Malik Willis is there and you, I mean, if you don't do it, like, I don't know. I mean, it's not like Kirk Cousins is on a five-year extension. He's on a two-year extension. He's on a two-year extension and the no trade clause, that part of

it still has me a little confused, giving Kirk Cousins the keys to his future. But if you draft another quarterback and then after this year, we're really high on say Malik Willis, then, I mean, can you go to Cousins and say, Hey, look, we'll trade you to this team or that team and whatever else. I mean, that's kind of how it looks like it worked with Russell Wilson, although I don't know that we ever had it clarified that he had a no trade clause, but it appears if he did that he was saying, okay, I'll go to Denver. They got receivers, they got an exciting new coach and so forth. And so it's not impossible to be able to trade Cousins.

But even then, so everybody hates using the years from a rookie quarterback and sort of lighting them on fire. But I don't think you're lighting them on fire for a player to develop on the bench. I will just forever and always believe this. If Justin Fields didn't play a single down last year, that would have been good for him. In fact, I think last year would have been good for him. In fact, I think last year might've been bad for him. He was playing for a bad coach with a bad offensive line with one good receiver who the coach had some beef with Allen Robinson. And like, did that help?

Like, is, is Justin fields feel better about where he is today than he would have if he stayed on the bench? I've just never had a problem with a team drafting a quarterback and letting them sit. Same for Zach Wilson. The guy was so far in over his head that he came out and just played horribly to start the season. I think he started to turn around a little toward the end, but at the start of the season, it's just a disaster for the guy. It's okay to draft someone and let them sit. So if the Vikings do it, I think that the competitive rebuild would be very much justified in using that word for Kweisi Adafomensa. And they would have somebody to develop over a year, have an idea of where they stand,

and then decide what they want to do after that. But I think to the outside world, and I guess I would probably side with the outside world on this. They have other positions that are of big need and the 2023 draft class is being talked about as much better. And so I think ultimately that's what we see is them draft a corner or draft a defensive end or maybe draft a receiver. But it would be a surprise and a welcome one for us to discuss for sure at quarterback. But I think if you're doing a mock and you work for NFL.com or whatever else, you would be saying, well, that team probably isn't drafting a quarterback because Cousins is under contract for two more years. That's probably how they would look at it. All right, this comes from Rinky Golf on Twitter.

Based on what we know so far about how Kweisi has overseen the offseason, what would you expect from the draft in terms of positions targeted, trading up and down, or the number of players selected? That's a great question. Unfortunately, Kweisi did not pull me aside after his press conference and say, this is what we're doing differently in the draft. So I'll just take a shot at it. If this is the opportunity for Kweisi to get out the abacus and start using all the analytics, then there's a few things that we could probably surmise.

I mean, one of them is it just so happens that the positions the Vikings need are the most important and valuable positions in the sport. Edge rushers and wide receivers are getting such preposterous amounts of dollar money that you really strongly have to consider drafting one and trying to get two receivers on rookie contracts, which side note, if I'm Justin Jefferson and I'm seeing what just happened with Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Stefan Diggs with these extensions, I am going to the Vikings and saying, what about maybe now doing an extension? This rookie contract, this doesn't work for me.

I'm just saying, I wonder if this will start to happen where the gap is so wide. And if you are an elite superstar in your first two years, that you're going to say, yeah, let's tear this thing up. Make me a Viking for much longer and get me some more cash because this is absurd that I'm performing at the same level. I don't know if that will happen, but it could be kind of the next step in this phase as the gap grows. But if you think about, if you draft Chris Olave from Ohio State, the wide receiver,

and he's really good and he's on his rookie contract, let's even say three years before he signs a huge extension, if he's great. I mean, think of the value over what it would cost to get someone for that much money. Here's what we know. I mean, Justin Jefferson is making a couple million bucks, whereas the top receivers are going to make 20 to 25. That is a huge gap and he's producing the same amount. So, I mean, you could say the same for defensive end. For corner, it's a little more tricky because I think corners can be unpredictable year to year, but especially pass rusher and especially wide receiver. So I think if they look at that sort of logic and that formula,

you could figure those are positions that they're going to target the most. Now, trading down is generally thought of as being a good strategy, but I always think that is a push and pull of how far you want to trade down if it would mean as the scenario laid out earlier getting a first rounder for next year because someone is desperate for kenny pickett which i don't see happening but let's just say um i think that they'll do it so i i don't know that we need to like be inside of quacey's office and listening to his ideas to figure out kind of how this might go. As far as trading down, I don't know that we'll see five seventh rounders or something like we did in the past. In terms of positions, we can kind of just logic this thing to figure out what they're going to do. But what I brought up the analytics is just, I'd be very interested if

there's something really different because this off season has mostly been the off season of not being different. And we've all kind of sat here and gone, well, that's what they usually do. Well, that's what they usually do. And will the draft provide us something where we go, Oh, well, that's a little crazy life hack there. Or that's interesting. I mean, let's just say this, just for example, let's say out of their picks, they drafted only pass rushers, receivers, and corners. That was it. They didn't draft any other position. Then we would go, oh, wow. Okay. Now that's a strategy, right? So they must think that in the future they can get this position for a better price on free agency or whatever.

Like, I think that we're kind of hoping for conversation's sake to come out of the draft and be able to say, all right, like we can see something really interesting brewing here with Kweisi Adafomense's ideas. But I think otherwise, you're talking about like, anyone could kind of figure out like they have two older and, and previously injured defensive ends. They have no corners outside of Cam Dantzler and Patrick Peterson. And Adam Thielen is in his thirties

receiver corner defensive end. And then, you know, Kyle Hamilton might be the exception if they were looking for their long-term like dominating safety so i guess even without knowing anything about what happened earlier this offseason you could kind of put it in that box and then we'll see if they you know surprise us all right this comes from farah nate on twitter you think there might be a chance that the vik Cousins agreed to trade Cousins next year to a team that Cousins agrees to and shock everyone and draft a quarterback this year and let him sit for a year. Then Cousins gets traded wherever he wants to go. So yeah, we were

talking about that a little bit with the Malik Willis, you know, being on the draft board. Do I think that that is the case? I don't know. I don't know. Because we went into this off season where I had some sense for where I thought Kwesi Adafo-Mensah would take the roster and the salary cap and the quarterback situation. And then by all reports and everything that I've been told, he tried to, and then it didn't happen. And so this is all very hard to know, right? Like, because if they, there's so many, like if, and then what, right? Like if they were to go 11 and six next year and they make the playoffs and they win a playoff game, are they then turning it over to the next quarterback or are they going to stay with Kirk cousins?

Right. If they get to number 12 and Malik Willis is gone and Kenny Pickett is the best quarterback, but cave on Thibodeau is there. Are they really taking Kenny Pickett when he's considered sort of a middling prospect? Like there's a lot of dominoes to fall. I don't know that there's a secret agreement. I think what Kirk Cousins agent wanted to do was to make sure that he was getting

something back in terms of the player being able to control his future in exchange for a short-term extension that would help the cap marginally, but help the cap for right now. So is this a route that could happen? I think it absolutely is. And the thing that's come to mind recently for me, when I was looking at Benjamin Robinson on Twitter does this thing where he takes all the mocks and he brings them in and he kind of organizes them to where players have gone in the mock drafts. So is it, you know, someone's stock is rising, someone's stock is falling. And weirdly the guy whose stock seems to be falling is Sam Howell. And if Sam Howell is a second round player, can you start to talk yourself into maybe that being an idea and then seeing what happens there? So there's so many

different ways that this could go. I don't think there's like a backdoor handshake agreement, but I also think that the scenario that you laid out, it is within the realm of possibility. All right, I'll end with the toughest question of the day, which is from Peter M. Townie on Twitter. Talk me into the Vikings winning a Super Bowl in the next three years. All right. Well, let me take a sip of Diet Dr. Pepper for this one.

I guess I would have to start with this. If they hit in the draft, and that's a huge if, of course course your team and your roster strength can change very quickly and i'll give you two examples the dallas cowboys and the new orleans saints that the saints drafted michael thomas and marshall latimore and elvin camara and all of a sudden and what ryan ramchek and then all of a sudden over a very short period of time they were much better and. And yes, they had Drew Brees, and yeah, that was a huge help, but there were years where Drew Brees' teams were in the middle, and that took them to being a Super Bowl contender again. The Dallas Cowboys were in the middle and struggling,

even with Dak Prescott, and then they take Micah Parsons, they take Trayvon Diggs, they take CeeDee Lamb, and all of a sudden, Dak Prescott is much better. That's a huge part of it. I would say that if you're laying out this scenario, it's probably that they draft a quarterback in 2023, they hit well on the draft picks from this year, and then they do the thing where you move on from cousins, spend a ton of money in free agency, and then they're there. That all sounds a gazillion times easier than it is. But if you're talking about one path, what the most likely path to the Vikings winning a Super Bowl would be,

that's the one. That's it. That's the way to talk you into it. And that's probably the only way to talk you into it. Otherwise it has to be sort of miracles of God kind of situation. But you know, those do happen where it's random years. We were talking about 2017, but I think that if you're talking about most likely scenario, you could always have, I mean, something like this year where everything just kind of falls into place for the Rams. That the Tampa Bay Bucks forget to play defense at the end of a game. And Aaron Rodgers doesn't play well in the snow. And there's a punt blocked.

And so they're playing San Francisco. And sometimes things do go your way. So what the Wilfs say about the playoffs and how it can just go your way, that does happen. Once every decade or so, somebody wins that way. So that's possible. But the most likely scenario, if you told me, hey, three years from now, you said, hey, I'm a gypsy. And you went, oh, I see into the future. And I see a Super Bowl ring for the Vikings. I would say, okay, so they drafted a quarterback in 2023, rebuilt the whole thing and won. Is that how they did it? That's what I would say. Um, okay. All right, fine. One more. Uh, this is from at, this is a fantasy six over the next four years. Um, would you bet the over under on 1.5 playoff wins over the next four

years? Oh, okay. So this is the years that the Vikings will be on the hook for Kirk Cousins in some way or another, whether he's playing for them or the void years. I would put it four years is a long time. We just gave them the Super Bowl within the next three years. So I guess they'd have to win playoff games. Four years is a long time, but giving them playoff wins is also in the last four years when they haven't done it. I am going to say over on this, but very tentatively. And there's a lot we need to learn in order to get for sure to the over, but I'll say the over. I will say that this path, even though that they have hurt themselves,

maybe in the very short term that they will eventually have to live in reality about the salary cap and the aging players. And they will eventually have to draft a quarterback just based on the age of Kirk. You could be the biggest Kirk fan ever, but you have to admit his age is real. And then they'll have a chance. But yeah, I mean, one and a half is such a great over-under. Gosh, that's good. But with the seven seed and the fact that a lot of people get into the playoffs, can you win two in four years?

Well done. Leaving me with a very, very tough question at the end here. So I've got more fans-only questions to answer. Gosh, this was from one Twitter thread, all three of these last fans only episodes. So every once in a while, I'll put it out there and I'll get a bunch of good questions from people and we'll carry on. I love the questions. I've loved doing this. And thank you so much for all of your feedback saying, Hey, keep doing the fans only stuff. So that's what we're going to do. Thanks so much for listening to this episode of purple insider. We'll be back.