Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - What is your kicker love language? Oh yeah, and Vikings-Packers

Episode Date: December 30, 2022

Matthew Coller and Will Ragatz of Sports Illustrated talk about Matt Daniels' press conference in which he talked about why Greg Joseph has been kicking so well lately... do we actually trust a Vikings kicker? And we talk about the discussion about the Vikings' team strength and why they are being questioned by some analysts. Plus a concerning injury for the Vikings and an injury for the Packers that could determine the game. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Purple Insider is presented by Liquid Death, delicious water that's bringing death to plastic. Learn more at liquiddeath.com slash insider. Hello and welcome to another episode of Purple Insider. Matthew Collar and Will Raggetts here from Sports Illustrated. And Will, I mean, I feel like we've made a mistake this year by doing the pot on Thursdays and not starting every show with a full breakdown of Matt Daniels' press conference. But today was another epic in which he talked about his relationship with Greg Joseph and how he's coached him different and how he has tried to understand how he needs to communicate

even with the head coach for how Kevin O'Connell should handle Greg Joseph. Those kickers are a very dicey situation as we have learned through the years with the Vikings. But my question for you is, do we trust Greg Joseph and a Vikings kicker now? Is that a thing, especially based on what Matt Daniels said about how they've handled him, how he's turned the whole wagon around and has made, what, 20 kicks in a row or something like that like Greg Joseph has been training camp Greg Joseph uh is there reason for Vikings fans to actually believe in a kicker yeah I don't know if I want to like go out and say that because I feel like it's just going to age poorly and like something's going to happen

and everyone's going to point the finger at me but on paper I think yes I mean going back to training camp we saw this guy every day he He was lights out from 56, 60 yards. He has a big leg. He seems to have the right mindset. He's off social media, which I think is a good thing for a kicker. Like when they're tagging all the special teams player of the week, they tag the other guys and they can't tag Greg Joseph because he doesn't have a Twitter, which is a good thing.

But it's just there's the whole Vikings kicker lore and everything that seems to hang over. And again, no reason why that should hang over Greg Joseph specifically, but it just kind of does, at least from our perspective of looking at it. I just – I think it's an interesting thing because, like, there was every reason, like Matt Daniels said today, for them to consider maybe moving on from him with the struggles he was having on extra points and on long field goals and things like that in kind of

the middle of the season but they just let him be and kickers kind of kind of treating them like starting pitchers in baseball like they're their own they're in their own weird world and it worked out and he's bounced back and he's made all these kicks and I don't know if there was a little mechanical adjustment or what but yeah on paper right now there are a lot of reasons to trust Greg Joseph it's just man you you feel like with the history of this franchise and with what we've seen from Greg Joseph at times over the past two seasons it's a it's a volatile situation that could kind of could kind of go back the other way at any minute yeah I also would not say it too loudly um i mean people were even upset with

us during training camp for saying that he was doing well it's like well that is kind of what we do here is we're just telling you what's what's what we're seeing right and am i supposed to say that he's missing it because it well first of all it's not actually happening so we do have to tell you when the ball goes in or not or how someone's performing but even if we didn't mention it wouldn't you guys still be worried about kickers i think the answer is yes and i'm sure that people still are but the thing about kickers i studied this a couple years ago where i looked into like all the best kickers and i found that every single one of them had a stretch or a game where it was just absolutely brutal and there's no way to predict it. I mean, like even the kicker that they're going to face Mason Crosby, who is 700

years old. And I don't think can make more than about a 44 yard field goal. Uh, but even at his prime, he had one game where he missed like five field goals in a single game. And then he was fine. And the next year he was one of the best in the entire league. It's a very difficult thing to pinpoint. I do think, though, that it or do you just want to be left alone and you and the long snapper and the punter you guys can kind of figure out what happened there and fix it the next time and he said greg basically likes to be left alone and for him to do that as opposed to psychological warfare on kickers of the past i mean mike zimmer took a flammable situation and just poured kerosene on it. And I think at least with Matt Daniels, though, it's very hard to prove because Kai Forbath made one of the biggest field goals in franchise history to help them beat the New Orleans

Saints. So I don't know, like, and Dan Bailey was great for a year under Zimmer, but it seemed like if somebody was wobbling, he would just push them right to the ground. Whereas I think that showing the confidence in him was the right way to go and also not cutting him. Because once you start chasing your tail on kickers, I mean, you can just get the wrong side of those coin flips in the worst way. You'd rather go with someone who is proven to be a quality NFL kicker and just ride that all the way to the end rather than saying like oh well you know Todd over here has been booting him at a high school stadium or something like it okay yeah you want the 33rd best kicker as opposed to maybe you had like the 12th

best kicker in the league I think they did make the right move but at the same time am I going to be the one that tells you that Greg Joseph will make that same field goal in the playoffs no of course not because it's the Vikings yeah I don't we don't want to be the ones who are going to come out and say hey you you have to believe in Greg Joseph here but I agree with you like Justin Tucker was basically the only is basically the only kicker I can remember that never has like weird down moments and he's missed three kicks over the last two weeks which is you never see from him but it's just proof that it can happen to any kicker in a game like it's a weirdly it's a psychological it's a really kind of intense lonely position to

play where you just are out there trying to do one job and if you mess up there's gonna be a lot of people talking about it because you have a it's a fairly straightforward job that is actually really difficult because you're kicking a football a long way into a narrow kind of set of goal posts with a bunch of dudes coming at you trying to block the kick like it's a tough thing to do and I agree we have to I mean we have to mention the the Daniel Carlson thing and and Mike Zimmer like the way that kickers are handled is so important. And that's what was the most interesting thing about hearing from Matt Daniels today is like, just talking to him. Some kickers will want to be called out and like fired up with like, Hey,

what do you do and do your job? Like that kind of language. Some kickers will just want to be completely left alone. Some kickers will want words of affirmation and you telling them, Hey, like you got the, like just things like that it is up to the coaches to have that communication and have those conversations and find out what their kicker needs and i think like as easy it is for us to point to this culture stuff like that's an example of where i think it can be real and from kevin o'connell and quacey adolfo-Mensah down to Matt Daniels and, and everybody else, like that kind of communication being on the same page, that can,

I think this is evidence that that can work and that can have kind of real tangible effects. And yeah, I mean, we talked about this earlier in the season, I'm pretty sure, like even when Greg Joseph was struggling with the kind of the body of work and the resume he has in the NFL and what we saw through training camp, you were always going to be asking for trouble if you started playing the kicker carousel

and you cut him and you're like, oh, let's go sign this guy off this practice squad. Or like there are very few examples of where you just, like I think the Colts with Chase McLaughlin, who was a former Viking, like that's a rare example where you find a kicker off the street. And now he's like your long-term guy and it works out most of the time it

ends up and you're bringing in like Tristan Vizcaino or like, um, fricking, uh, who Kari, Kari, Kari Vedvik. That's,

that's, I was going to say, I traded for the bears did this a couple of years ago where it was just like, we're going to have 11 kickers come in, and they're all going to compete against each other. You think that's going to work? Yeah, it just doesn't work.

There aren't that many guys who can do the job of being an NFL kicker at a high level. And the Vikings have found one in Greg Joseph, so it's up to them. I think we should praise them that they made the right call for sticking it out with this guy when he he had some slip ups and again that is not to say that when he lines up to kick a critical kick in a postseason game because you know that's coming that everyone will have total faith that it's going in but I think we'll have more faith than we would if it was some random Joe off the street. Well, I had the same conclusion as you as far as when it comes to coaching and the whole culture thing, because when you say the word culture, it's like it just means nothing. It's just like a buzzword at this point. But I'm always like, show me, show me what you mean by your culture.

And I think this is like a show you type of thing, because if you apply this to lots of different types of players and you're trying to tailor how you coach them to what's going to get the most out of them, I mean, that's just a better plan than being like, I'm in charge and you do what I say. I think that the reason that so many coaches have gone to this isn't because millennials or Gen Z is soft. It's because it's smarter. It's because we've studied these things. It's because there's data on it, because every business tries to do it this way. And people are writing books about it and things like that. Like these guys do this for a reason. And I think, yeah, they wanted when they hired Matt Daniels, they wanted someone who would be in that same vein and think along the same lines as them.

And it's very hard to connect the results to that coaching. But I think that coaching is the right process for them. And maybe it's played out here with a, you know, I don't know, sensitive kicker. But I wanted to ask you before we moved on to a very interesting tweet that I got about just the whole narrative of the Vikings and where they stand as far as their team strength and things like that. I want to get to that in a second. I don't want to spend the whole show on kickers, though we absolutely could with this thing. I just want to know, Matt Daniels said it's the five love languages.

So if you were a kicker, what would your love language be, Will? What would you want from your special teams coach? That's a good question I think I would want the like the words of affirmation and the positive reinforcement and tell me I'm a beautiful kicker even when it's not going really well because I think I think that would help me I don't think I don't think I would want the Greg Joseph uh treatment of just leave me alone because I think I would get too much in my own head and like I would go down the well I guess Carlson never went down that path because he got cut after the game but I feel like it would just get worse for me if I was left alone I think I would

want some you know warm warm roses and flowers it would be my my preferred approach if I were a kicker but also I have no idea what I'm talking about because I would be a terrible kicker. Well, well, you're a great podcast guest. It's just wonderful to have you. You've done a great job coming on a weekly basis this year. I set myself up for this.

What would your, what would your answer be? I'm curious. Well, I think for me that usually when I did play sports growing up, if something went wrong, the thing I hated the most was if a coach immediately pointed it out. So I even remember like this is one thing that sticks in my head from when I was playing junior high baseball, you know, whatever that grade is eighth grade and I had a ground ball go under my legs and the coach came out of the dugout and like yelled at me for not staying down on the ball it's like do you think I don't know that I didn't stay down in the ball like do you think that I couldn't have figured that out

so if I was a kicker the last thing in the world I'd want if I pushed one wide right would be for the special teams coach to come over and be like you pushed it wide right you're like I know yeah yeah I know thank you on that I'm much I would be much more in the vein of probably Greg Joseph of like let let me I'm the kicker let me figure that out I'll figure it out with my holder you stay over there and you worry about the rest of your special teams and I'll handle this since you don't kick footballs and i do that would be mine and i generally have a bad attitude toward authority as maybe you figured out being around me in the media room from time to time uh but i have no boss so it's actually kind of a great situation but uh yeah you know i think that it's a great idea to have that for personalities

and i wish that i had it growing up with sports of coaches considering that you can't treat all the kids the same or just yell at people when they make a mistake it makes you feel like the next time you are more nervous to to lean down i mean i've had it happen and so many kids have where you make a physical mistake that 99 times out of 100 you wouldn't make, but it's just a random bounce or whatever. And the coach pulls you out of a game for it or something. And like, really? Are we doing this just because a ball bounced through my legs? Anyway, so I think that Zimmer, it's one of the most reasonable criticisms of him.

If we go through all the things that he got criticized for and a lot of them we've sort of circled back on and be like well maybe he knew what he was doing and this or that he didn't know what he was doing with kickers that's for sure so anyway and in general i mean if you're if you're if you feel like you're gonna get yelled at and cussed out for every mistake you make i think it's harder to play confidently you that that can lend itself to you being tentative and trying to play not to mess up and that's you can't play like that in the NFL and survive so I think that is a generally valid uh criticism of Zimmer and a positive thing for the new regime so I got a message from uh a twitter follower seth who it's a long message i won't

read the entire thing but his basic question was for the show and i think it's a good discussion was that the conversation about the vikings stats and analytics and data and everything else versus their record and some people saying well they're they're not for real. And other people saying, but look at their record, look how clutch they are. Look at 11 and 0 in close games. And his point was that a lot of other teams have also played close games against the Colts like Philadelphia did or against the Bears. I think Philadelphia also played close against the Bears and that they have not received the same sort of scrutiny for playing a close game against the team.

That's not so good. And I will read the last part of his message where he said, I just think this team is much better than the statistical analysts would say. Some of the stats thrown around feel like a hypothesis of predicting a quality team, but don't correlate to wins. And do they matter?

My thought is that if we scrutinize the other top teams as much as we do the Vikings they wouldn't be all that far off from the other top teams am I way off so what do you make of that conversation Mr. Ruggins yeah it's it's it's fascinating and we've we've been talking about this all year ever since like it was week three and week four and we're like is this team good and we're still maybe asking ourselves that and I tend to kind of fall a little bit in the middle where I think there's something real to the Vikings like situational emphasis and the situational masters meetings that they've talked about so much dating back to the spring with Ryan Cordell and other coaches like pointing out all these different things that happened in various football

games at all levels and, and getting the Vikings prepared for that. Like they don't make dumb mistakes. And I think that's a real thing that they've coached and they've emphasized. And, and that's real. And Kevin O'Connell like has his team prepared to come through and be at their best when their best is required is their line. And Kirk cousinsousins, that's a whole conversation, like a separate conversation, where his numbers are down, but it feels like he's playing winning football because he's been so tough in the pocket against pressure,

and he's trusting Justin Jefferson and TJ Hawkinson and other people more to go make plays and then being less robotic with his reads. And there's all these different things that you can point to that. Like, it's not a total fluke that they're 11 and O and one score games. It can't be. I mean, at this point,

like you just don't win 11, one score games without being good in the late moments and good in situational stuff. And, and all of that, I think that's real, but at the same time, I'm not going to sit here and say that the Vikings are on the tier of

the Eagles or the eagles or the cowboys or the 49ers because the play-by-play like advanced metrics are valuable tools that we have at our disposal like whatever you think about dvoa or epa per play or all of these things they're real and the vikings especially for the first three quarters of games particularly in the third quarter like they just the consistency on a play-to-play basis hasn't been there and that gives you pause when you're talking about going into the playoffs against these teams that just have much better advanced metrics across the board so I think there's there's it goes both ways that there's something real about the Vikings situational stuff, but there's concern going into the playoffs for sure,

at least from my perspective, like that maybe just they could find themselves falling behind by a few scores against one of these top teams if they go into an offensive lull like we've seen, or if they give up explosives on defense. And then the situational stuff won't matter if you're down 20 late in the game

because then it's no longer a one score game. And I mean, we've, we've just seen that against the Eagles and Cowboys this season, which is those two games specifically are going to be hard to kind of overcome from a narrative perspective until we see them go up against one of those teams and beat them. Folks, we had some friends over this holiday and my wife and I cracked open some liquid deaths at nine in the morning. And let me tell you that drew some strange looks,

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I mean, isn't how strong are you really the fundamental question in football? Because everybody knows that your record is based on such an unbelievably small sample size in comparison to other sports. So by the time a basketball team has played 82 games, there's really no debate about what they are because they played 82 times. So if they're 500, they're 500. There's no argument about it. It's one of the things that actually makes football so fascinating is who's the strongest team in the league is they use bigger samples. And like you said, you only get one and oh on a that you would use the 70 plays as opposed to trying to use the one and oh, that can be influenced by such small things. And last year, Mike Zimmer argued repeatedly that they were a much better team than their record. And when you go back and look at how they lost some of those games, it's very hard to say that the reason was they didn't coach situations enough. I mean, there's the game against Cooper Rush,

where the ball literally bounces right off the hands of Bashad Breeland and into the hands of the wide receiver for like a 40-yard gain. That is completely random. And I mean, even, yes, there are things throughout a game that you could say, well, this happened to us and that happened to us and so forth. But when it comes down to those final drives and final moments and stuff, I mean, if the Giants tackle Justin Jefferson, like two yards or five yards farther back, they don't even kick the field goal. Like the razor's edge of this thing can go your way or go against you in a given season.

And I think we would all agree that it went against them last season. And I don't know if there's anything that a coach can really do to change those small things that either go your way or don't go your way. Fumble recoveries are a great example of this. I mean, it's impossible not to bring up the Josh Allen one, but also how about against the Colts? Like, yeah, they got one taken away, but they also got one later in that game where they get a fumble recovery. If the Colts jump on it, maybe they get a first down and the game doesn't go your way. Like these things or Smith-Marset against the Bears or yeah, double doinks against the Saint. Like you're right. There are a lot of random things that have played into that 11 and 0 one score record as well. Right. So it makes sense if you're trying to answer the question, who's the strongest, to try to remove the noise, remove the things that can either go your way or not go your way.

But where I think the mistake happens is that when we start going down this rabbit hole, if we remove the records and we remove the noisy stuff and we just looked at the who is the strongest statistics we would probably come out with the Vikings as more of a middle of the pack team or more of a a little bit above average team and those teams have won the Super Bowl before by the way teams that played just a little above average I would say the Rams overall last year were I think a plus 80 point differential which is on the lower end and And I I've noticed that a lot of the teams in terms of point differential that have been on the lower end historically have actually come in recent years because I think these games are just getting closer and closer as all the franchises get better. Quarterback play generally gets better. Or in this year,

it's like there's been so much bad quarterback play that that's brought a lot of the teams closer so there's all these factors you're trying to remove but my thing is if i didn't tell you the vikings record and you only got to look at every other thing what would you think it was what would you come up with it and it's not wrong to say that out loud but also when you look at the one score game stat, it is a little bit not fair because they did outplay some teams. They were in command of some games. I mean, you know, Miami is a one score game. Is it really, you know, Chicago, they really outplayed them the whole game. Arizona, is it really, you know, cause they outplayed Arizona too.

So, you know, that doesn't mean that every one scoreed Arizona too. So that doesn't mean that every one-score game is a fraud. It doesn't mean that you should be 0-17. What it means is that those usually go 50-50. And I think because some of those one-score games are weirdly concocted by just the way they came along, that maybe the Vikings should have won like 70% of those. So instead of 11, maybe it should be like seven. Would you still be going in as the division champions

with a chance to go compete for the Super Bowl if that was the case? Yeah, yeah, you would. Would you still be if you were the seventh best offense in the league in terms of points and 28th in defense and you won instead of 12 games right now you had nine like yeah you'd still be considered a fair contender right but i think what everyone's saying is they're not as strong of a contender as you'd expect for a 12 win team

so so it's a very convoluted thing that takes a long explanation which we just went through and and it's easier for some people to just say like, Hey, they're frauds. But I, but I don't like that at all. I don't like to say frauds because they would still be the division champs. They would still be an above average team with a, with a lot of great talent across the board. Yeah, I think, no, you're right. Like the 11 and O mark in one score games. And the fact that they're 12-3, I think has twisted the conversation a little bit because if you're saying this team is an elite, like the 98 Vikings, like the 09 Vikings,

this is one of the best teams in the league, which maybe you would expect if you only looked at the win-loss record and you're like, this team has one of the best records in the league, maybe relative to that level of expectation, you could say that they are like i don't want to use the word frauds but they're not that team and i think that's fair i don't have a problem with anybody saying that but like yeah there are you i agree with your point that like some of the one score game stuff they're not all just completely random not all one score games

are created equal there's the whole um stat which is really interesting like somebody posts this a bunch of times a season where if you flip every one score game what would every team's record be and like the Vikings would be 1 and 14 which is hilarious but you can't tell me that like that Dolphins game deserves to be flipped because that was a 50-50 outcome in a one score game that was an eight point game that the Vikings controlled throughout they were up 14 late in the game against like a third-string quarterback, and they scored a touchdown and two-point conversion or something like that to make it an eight-point game. Like there are games like, I don't know, the Jets

or like various games come to mind that have some definite randomness and were kind of close. Well, the Jets one was another one where they got out big and blew it. They've come in all shapes and sizes. They been close throughout they've been the vikings blowing leads they've been the vikings coming back from being down by 33 points and um all these different things but yeah not all one score games are created equal so i agree that the vikings like you look across the board at their roster too and i think that's something that you have to talk about like not every team that like is dealing with some luck in one score games has a player like Justin Jefferson which can

be a separator in these games not like Kirk Cousins is you can have endless debates about him but he's been playing like a top 12 maybe a top 10 quarterback in terms of showing up in the big situations and coming through late. They have Darius Smith and Daniel Hunter who have been really good. They've got Christian Derusaw back who's been at an all-pro level. I think where you kind of get the confidence and the argument to make that this could be a frisky team in the playoffs, even if they're not going to enter as maybe even one of the three favorites in their conference, is just the blue-chip talent that they have at various positions on both sides of the maybe even one of the three favorites in their conference is just the blue chip talent that they have at various positions on on both sides of the ball and the special teams has been coming up big and like they're just it seems like they're starting to figure some things out

and they have two more weeks in this regular season if you can keep figuring things out and kevin o'connell himself has said it they are still chasing like their first game of the year where they play consistent football throughout all four quarters that hasn't happened yet but it still could and they've been learning more about themselves with each passing week and learning how to incorporate t.j hockinson and what a difference maker he can be especially in kind of the underneath areas when teams are trying to take away jefferson and thielen and things like that and um defensively like starting to mix in more uh more five and six man pressures like we were asking Ed Donatello to do for a while and

um like the things we've seen from Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley at cornerback and all these different things like you can make an argument that the the best football is still in front of the Vikings like and they have the talent they have the talent, they have the pieces, and they have the coaching to do that. And I think there are other teams that are maybe have the same like DVOA concerns or advanced stat concerns like the Vikings that don't have that ceiling because of the talent on their off. Like I would say the New York Giants are a good example. Like they have outperformed their record. They're kind of a middling team that's going to be in the playoffs. And the Vikings could have a similar record to the Giants if you a few plays throughout the season had gone differently but the Giants don't have like the level of talent that the

Vikings has and have and I think that showed up in that game last Sunday like critical players Justin Jefferson TJ Hawkinson Daniel Hunter making big plays and kind of separating in that game. And I know it was close throughout and I know it was a one score game because they're all one score games, but there was kind of a confidence. I think when I was watching that game, I just, I just thought the Vikings were going to win and, and they did. And it's, it's been building throughout the season. They've done it time and time and time again. And I think that plays into it, but it's also the individual talent and the coaching. And I don't know, I think the culture and I think that plays into it but it's also the individual talent the coaching and I don't know I think the culture I think the belief plays a role in that too so yeah it is a fascinating question and ultimately like what's gonna suck is the Vikings are probably

gonna lose in the playoffs and everyone's gonna be like see frauds I told you and like that's gonna I think be a discredit to kind of the the work that they've done and what they've earned this season and all the ways that they've found to win games. And so, you know, we'll cross that bridge when we get there. But I think this is a team that can go into the playoffs feeling confident. And let's see what happens these next two weeks in Green Bay and Chicago and kind of how that how the narrative shifts or looks going into the wildcard round I'm excited for this game in Green Bay which I know we haven't really talked about but a few weeks ago that looked like it was going to be meaningless because the Packers were like four and eight and and who cares and it wasn't going to matter and now the Packers are fighting

for their lives the Vikings are fighting for their two seed lives and maybe even the one seed we'll we'll know by kick if if the eagles have clenched the one seed or not but yeah this is going to be fun and there's all there's all these different narratives and the vikings trying to sweep them and jair alexander saying justin jefferson's week one game was a fluke and i don't know i'm fired up i'm fired up to watch a game at lambeau field that uh sean manion's not playing quarterback. Oh, I know. What a waste of fuel that was to drive down there last year for that. So the only thing we got out of that was hearing Mike Zimmer publicly bash Kellen Mond. So that was, yes. Thanks. Thanks Courtney for that follow-up

question about Kellen Mond where he said not particularly. But the last thing I want to say on that, because it is like, it is the discussion with this team, is all the things that you ran through. I guess the way I would put it is, as far as is it reasonable to say this about the Vikings, that they're not as strong as their record. All the things that you ran through as far as their superstar talent, the culture that they've built, how they play in some of the biggest moments. You could say the same thing for Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco,

except for they've beat teams by a hundred points and you haven't. So how would, how would you do it? Like if you were trying to figure out let's rank all the teams and their chances to win in the Superbowl and they all have the great records. They all have great cultures. They all have great coaches. They all have pro bowls and all pro all pro players. They have MVP candidates. They have superstar receivers. You can't tell me that A.J. Brown and C.D. Lamb and Debo Samuel and All-Pro from last year, you can't tell me that George Kittle isn't just as good or better than T.J. Hawkinson or Nick Bosa isn't just as good or better than Daniil Hunter, except for they've blown teams doors off and you haven't. So who am I worried about? Who are you more worried about? The team that has consistently outscored their opponents by a lot and, and crushed bad teams.

I mean, even in 2019, the Vikings smashed bad teams. So that's's if you're like in that category the upper echelon you're the Kansas City the Buffalo the Philly the San Francisco and you're these these behemoth teams who have all those things that you have as well what they don't have clutch quarterbacks like I mean I don't know I watched Dak Prescott last week looked pretty clutch and they probably say the same thing there except for they didn't need eight fourth quarter comebacks. That's why he doesn't have them, because he was winning those games. So that's how you would put it. That does not mean that in a single contest of good team

versus really good team that San Francisco can't come here and you beat them if you get the number two seed. Of course you can. They have Brock Purdy coming to US Bank Stadium potentially. Like, yeah, you can beat them. I think that the question is more, would you be worried that they'd lose to someone like the Giants? And I think after this week,

you can't tell me that there's supreme confidence that you're going to run the Giants out of the building because you won by three and gave up a ton of yards. So I think like get like framing the discussion in the right way is important here rather than just being like, they don't have a play differential. They're no good. Like, of course, like, no, I mean, this is one of the craziest and most interesting seasons that we've ever seen. I mean, really by any Vikings team ever. But also we need to have that discussion as well of what all these things tell us in

comparison to the other teams. So all that aside, the injury report comes out. Christian Watson still did not practice. This is a massive factor. The Packers are favored. We've had that discussion about other teams being favored. They're more motivated I mean like if they lose then it's that's it I mean there's motivation for the Vikings to knock them out but like they need this they're at their home building it's a very difficult place to play it's outside on grass but I think that if Christian Watson does not play this changes the math a little bit for me because the one thing I thought would be the biggest difference between week one and this is that like Rodgers found his guy I don't think their defense is good I don't

think they're going to stop Justin Jefferson all of a sudden that they've concocted some magical plan since week one I think their defensive scheme still it stinks but you know I do think that that one factor ifatson is healthy and can play they should be pretty concerned about him but otherwise it's kind of the same packers team that doesn't really have anyone that scares you no you're right and yeah i mean i can't i still vividly remember sitting in u.s bank stadium week one like wondering what the season's going to be and the vikings going on to score and then the first Packers offensive play Christian Watson just torches Patrick Peterson and drops it and I was like all right I know he dropped it but that guy with with that speed and that size he looks like

he could be a problem and then I don't know what do you have like nine touchdowns in a five-week stretch or something like he turned into the guy that Rodgers trusted and you're right outside of him if he doesn't play it doesn't they don't scare you at all alan lazard and like randall 45 year old randall cobb and robert tunyon like i think that's a big advantage for the vikings that this game is going to come down to and i love it because it's it's january 1st like hopefully it'll be fairly cold nfc north, big rivalry game. It's going to come down to running the football. And the Packers have not been able to stop the run this year.

They are ranked very much towards the bottom in rush defense DVOA and EPA per play and all these things. And Dalvin Cook in his last two games at Lambeau Field with Kirk Cousins playing quarterback has like 170 yards from scrimmage and like 240 yards from scrimmage he's just kind of gone off against that team and the numbers suggest that that could maybe happen again this week and that's something I'm really curious to watch because one of the conversations this week with Kevin O'Connell has been about the run pass ratio and that balance and the Vikings have thrown the football a ton and some of that's been

situational on the teams they've played against but I think there's going to be a real emphasis on on trying to feed Dalvin Cook and get him going and and kind of what that can open up for for Hawkinson and Jefferson and other people in the passing game and then on the other side of things like the Vikings haven't been that great at stopping the run and and that's where the Packers offense has has kind of leaned because this is Aaron Rodgers still Aaron Rodgers but he has not been peak Aaron Rodgers this year and he has not had really the weapons outside of Christian Watson's explosive explosion um so it's a lot of Aaron Jones a lot of A.J. Dillon and and can the Vikings stop that can they get pressure on Rodgers with another Zedarius Smith revenge game. And I mean, Smith's been getting a ton of pressures.

He just hasn't really turned him into sacks. And Daniel Hunter has really, really, really picked things up. And I think that's like one of the huge things that kind of you can point to if you're trying to maybe sell yourself or sell others on the Vikings having a decently high ceiling for a team of their caliber is like Daniel Hunter has looked like himself again and has really settled into a nice role in this defense and figured out how to how to shine in this new system so um yeah a lot of interesting things to watch the injury report Christian Watson David Bakhtiari is he gonna play because that makes a

huge difference he's been out for a little while. Like Keyshawn Nixon has been like the best kicker turner in the league, and he might be out this week. So that's a little thing that matters as well. But, yeah, I mean, the Packers also, Rashawn Gary, they don't have him. They don't have Eric Stokes. So they're a little – without a couple guys on IR defensively. But it's a weird team because, like, you came into the season and the defense looked

really good on paper and they just haven't been very good this year but they still have like preston smith and um jair alexander like they have they have some guys on defense they're going to be really really really motivated uh to win this game and keep their season alive and and not get swept by the vikings so yeah a lot of fun stuff to watch in this game. And I'm sure it'll, it'll come down to some dramatic last second play as it, as it seems to every week. Can I also say that it was a little fluky what happened with Justin Jefferson in week one.

And even Justin Jefferson like brought this up today when we were talking with him, he was like, he was right open on a couple of those right yeah right there were he said there were times when I was like bracing for a hit after catching the ball and no one was there and I remember looking back at the tape and just like what where it what is going like how he got matched up against Preston Smith at one point it's like I don't think that's supposed to be how that looks.

I'm certain they figured that out. I don't think that that's like a really controversial, like people will try to make, and that's fine, like football, but it's not really that controversial because they had so many coverage busts, but no one has stopped Justin Jefferson otherwise. So, I mean, it's not like it really means anything. I just think that he's actually probably right that they went back immediately and looked at what happened there. I just still, in watching the Miami game, the parts of the game where, you know,

Tua was not concussed and throwing it right to the Packers, I mean, they weren't playing very well on defense at all. They had given up 20 points, and Jalen Waddell had a huge touchdown. And, you know, I think that's the biggest disappointment of the year for the Packers for sure. I think we knew that their offense would have some struggles, but on the defensive side, you look at that roster and you think that it's kind of like the Vikings a little bit where you look at the roster and you're just like, wow, that's a lot of talent. Why are you bad? But yet they are. I am interested to see if Alexander travels

with Justin Jefferson. That's something that Darius Slade did a bit of. Jeff Okuda did a bit of. But they did none of that when it came to week one. And that matchup should be very, very good. I still look at Alexander as an excellent player. But I don't think there's really a corner in the league that could just take out Justin Jefferson. It's always about everybody else. And the everybody else also includes Austin Schloteman,

who's going to have to continue to play, more likely than not, with Garrett Bradbury missing practice. I mean, one, I think it's time to start being like, okay, he's not even limited. Like, if he was limited, I'd be saying like, all right, just rest him, it's fine. But he's not even limited. And he got in a car accident when he already had a back issue. So I'm a little concerned about what he's going to be like as we

go down the stretch here, if he's going to be able to come back in the playoffs at all. Back injuries are super wonky. And Austin Schlotman has been trying real hard. He's been trying real hard. And that's what backups can do. The Dakota Dozier stuff. We never blamed him. You're a backup player. But when I look at last week, Dexter Lawrence, seven pressures, two quarterback hits. Leonard Williams, five pressures, two quarterback hits, a couple of sacks.

And this team has Kenny Clark, who has just mauled them, and now you have to play with a backup center. I think that there should be some concern here about that because I think always and forever, the only way to take Stefan Diggs back in the day out or Justin Jefferson out is just by pressuring Kirk Cousins up the middle. I mean, he's just going to face his fair share of pressure again in this game against the Packers.

Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely one of your biggest concerns if you're the Vikings heading into this game against Kenny Clark and Jerron Reed. And like the Packers can do the Z'Darrius Smith thing with Preston Smith and line him up over a center, over a guard. And we haven't even talked about Ed Ingram, who is still looking like Ed Ingram, rookie Ed Ingram in pass protection. And there was a play last week where he just got toasted on a spin move and kirk got destroyed but still managed to complete a ball to to jefferson and yeah schlottman like he's he's kind of been like a poor man's bradbury where like pre uh pre 2022 bradbury especially where like he's solid in the run game and you don't really have many concerns about him there he's not spectacular but just the the pass protection has been really really concerning and and this specific matchup

um yeah that that matchup gives you a lot of pause so I think that's something to watch but yeah I mean Packers like Joe Barry their defensive coordinator has basically been their version of Ed Donatel uh from the way that their fans talk about him and what you see with that. Like they have been really kind of rigid in some ways in their defense. And I even saw a quote from from Matt LaFleur today where he was talking about Justin Jefferson and like talking about how you have to know where he is on the field. But going back to week one and what he said after the game is he's like, like well we're not just going to play man against him because that changes everything you do and like so in some ways that would make sense like fans thinking about it like you just put Jair Alexander on him and play man but if that's not your defense you're not going to change your whole defense just

because you're playing one of the best receivers in the league so they're not going to do that this week like they just they just don't they're not going to do that this week. Like they just they just don't. They're like the Vikings. They just don't play that much man. So Jair Alexander isn't probably going to follow Justin Jefferson. I think what they're going to do and what any defense can do is you can play zone, but you can execute it better and you can look at all these things and prepare better. And it's week 17 versus week one you're probably not going to end up with Justin Jefferson on an intermediate crossing route with

nobody within 30 yards of him like happened against against the Packers like that's not going to happen this week I don't think so they're going to be better prepared they're going to have multiple guys kind of knowing where he is at all times and things like that but they're not going to play man so the Vikings will have an opportunity to adjust and kind of maybe anticipate Packers adjustments and try to get Jefferson into space. And one thing I think that's been really important for the Vikings is their screen game has started to kind of come to life. And that was huge against the Giants, especially, I mean, the last play of the game to set up

the Joseph winner was a good example of that. So things like that, things like running the ball, though, you're going to have to be able to do that when the interior of the offensive line is as outmatched as it's been. Also, one of the things that I'm kind of amazed on a weekly basis that opposing teams don't figure out is that the other way to stop Justin Jefferson is by giving Kirk Cousins coverages that he can't recognize the line of scrimmage. And I just don't see a lot of that against this team because they sort of have to signal what they're going to do. And Jefferson

had an amazing breakdown today of his touchdown against the Giants, where he was talking about how he, when he saw the leverage of the corner he knew exactly what coverage they were playing and you know of course all receivers who make it can do this and if you ever wonder why a receiver is really physically gifted but never made it it might be because he can't do that um justin jefferson's intelligence because he's kind of a happy-go-lucky guy probably goes uh way underrated as far as his superstardom. But so he gets this read and he sees where the safety is. He sees where the leverage of the corner is and he knows the exact coverage. So before even the snap, he knows exactly how he's going to run this route, where he's got

to run it to, how he's going to snap it off and where he's going to be if Kirk Cousins is going to find him. The only way that we've seen Kirk Cousins get stopped sometimes in finding these elite receivers is when he doesn't see it. And when he doesn't see it right away, or when a team makes a change up post-snap, that if they show one thing and then it turns out to be the other, and actually PFF studied this and found Cousins was average or a little below average if teams played a different coverage than they signaled at the line of scrimmage i mean if they do that then you know they've got a chance to pressure him and get him to hesitate which we know he's been doing a lot of this year and taking a lot of sacks but i just don't think they're doing it and a lot of the stuff with joe berry sounds like donatelle

and at least donatelle has made some changes. He may have gotten threatened, but he has made some of those changes. But with the Joe Barry stuff, it's always like, now look guys, I know this defense. Who are you? What? We got this. And anytime you hear that with a coach,

I think you worry about that. Or from a Vikings perspective, you're happy about that, that they're just going to keep doing what they do and thinking that it works because then the opposition can you know figure out all the angles so i don't see them stopping just the jefferson if anything it's just that interior pressure which is a a huge huge concern the other thing too is that ezra cleveland is on the injury report as being limited so you have an injured left guard a right guard who has not really improved and a center who

allowed six pressures which for a center is almost impossible like you almost never see that that's tackles going up against the darius smith or something you never see six pressures from one player at the center position even with garrett bradbury that rarely happened those are major concerns for this game but do you think they win will man well really quick do we even know who like who would play left guard if cleveland because blake brandel's on ir and austin schloman's already in the lineup like is it chris reed it's probably chris reed because i would assume so yeah but it still exists i yeah i just don't believe that he exists sometimes because he's just inactive every week.

I think he's actually been active a few times over the past month or so. So it's probably him. It's probably not like Kyle Hinton. But man, do I think the Vikings win this game? I obviously, this is not breaking news to anyone, could see this going either way because I think the teams are pretty evenly matched and the Vikings have won more games late and what does that really mean we've been discussing that for this entire episode but I think the the home field advantage matters for the Packers I think the the mismatch of the interior defensive line against the Vikings

tier offensive line matters and maybe their their motivation their line against the Vikings. Interior offensive line matters, and maybe their motivation, their backs against the wall stuff matters, and Aaron Rodgers. It's just hard to sweep a good team that's in your division. So unpopular here, but I think I'm going to pick the Packers in this one. And so, yeah, that probably means the Vikings will win on a 79-yard field goal by Greg Joseph. But I'm picking the Packers. You know, what's funny about the Packers is,

so we talk about that expected win loss all the time and like what their point differential says about them. And we had that huge discussion. The Packers are exactly what their stats say they are. It's funny. They're expected win loss is their exact same record. And they are 17th defensively and 18th offensively. And that is just exactly right. Like that's exactly what I think of them is that they are just mediocre all the way through. And when I go looking for statistics to try to figure out who's going to win this game and like, can I find one that's going to point me in the right direction?

I mean, I just think like they are as mediocre as it gets, but the one stat that I think is problematic for the Packers and why I think the Vikings will win is that they are third worst in terms of passing yards against. That seems like that could be relevant here. And I just don't, I just think what happened last week.

And I know like you can't judge everything off last week, but what happened last week for them to get that win and stay alive was a quarterback who might not have known what stadium he was in. And like, I don't mean to be like, you know, flippant about it. I just mean like,

that's really true that those interceptions, we talk about the luck factor. I mean, that's as lucky as it gets that they got the ball thrown to them a bunch of times. I think they're, That's really true that those interceptions, we talk about the luck factor. I mean, that's as lucky as it gets that they got the ball thrown to them a bunch of times. I think their, their past defense is, is just total garbage.

And that's perfect for a Vikings passing game that has really started to ramp up really since Detroit. Like they dominated Detroit, the second half of Indianapolis. It was, you know, astonishingly good. And then last week, their passing game was really effective as well.

So I think that'll happen again. I had made a prediction like five weeks ago that based on the defenses they were facing, that Kirk Cousins would still end up with 100 quarterback rating. And we're getting there. I think we're getting there in this game and the Vikings win. And then there is there's no more fraud discussion after a big win in green bay that's what i think i've been right a lot will you have to admit and write a lot yeah you have i've been right a lot too well we've both we've we've usually been on the same page you have will

yeah you have buddy you've been very right you've done a great job i just want to affirm that for you i would be curious to go back and see when we've been when we've different who's been right i think it's probably been you more than it's been me but it hasn't happened all that often so it's a small it's a small sample size we'll say that but yeah i honestly like i can't i think that there's only been like one or two that have been wrong i think i've just sort of kept picking the vikings though like it's not it hasn't really been a strategy or a model and last year i think I've missed every game. So just like everything else, a lot of randomness in our picking games.

But we will be there at Lambeau. And personally, I think, Will, you can agree with this or disagree. Lambeau Field, the one edge it has on U.S. Bank Stadium, other than being, you know, it's iconic and all that is the the press box food it's good at us bank stadium they do a quality job but at lambo they just provide you with brilliant meats cheese curds all the wisconsin things and uh i get excited about that yeah that was the one thing i remember thinking like i drove four hours to watch sean manion do this but the food was good so that sort of made it worth it all by itself and now we

get an entertaining game to boot probably will rag it's looking forward to it me too great stuff man really appreciate your time and uh we'll do it again next week always