Purple Insider - a Minnesota Vikings and NFL podcast - Which teams could chase Brian Flores? JJ McCarthy could play vs. GB? (Part 2)

Episode Date: December 30, 2025

Matthew Coller talks about two big headlines from Kevin O'Connell on Monday. 1 -- JJ McCarthy may be able to play 2 -- KOC has talked with Flores about staying despite his contract being up. The Purple Insider podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. Also, check out our sponsor HIMS at https://hims.com/purpleinsider Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode of Purple Insider is presented by Fanduel. Anyway, so the, let me remind you real quick, that Fandul question of the day was 49ers are plus 900 to win the Super Bowl after the other night. That's the fourth best odds and the Jaguars are plus 1,300. These are the two teams that surprise me the most of where they are today. What team has been your biggest surprise? I will ask that to Brian Murphy and Mani Hill coming up here in just a second. We'll get those guys into the show and begin our roundtable.

Just takes me a second to get those guys loaded up. So make sure you answer that fan duel of the day, question of the day. And we'll get into a conversation here and also continue to take your questions and comments. Murph, do you have me? I do. Do you have me? Oh, I do. You sound great. You look great. So let's continue with the Brian Flores discussion. Hi, Manny. How are you?

Pretty good. How are you? I'm always great when this works. Let's continue with the Brian Flores conversation. And there is a distinct Brian bias here for MIRF. But Murf, do you think that the league finally decides this year? All right, it's time to put it aside. This guy is clearly. one of the best in the world at what he does and he needs to be a head coach or do you think that the owners remain uh i don't i don't know how to describe it i i mean unhappy with a mr flores and are not interested in giving him a head coaching job because just a if you didn't catch it murph kevin o'connell basically said look i really want him back and our dialogue has been great but if he gets a head coaching opportunity i mean man he's going to take it yeah i think he would. But as you mentioned at the top here, this litigation, which I haven't drilled into in a while,

I believe it's in arbitration, is thorny. I mean, he essentially accused four different teams and the league as a whole of not hiring him or firing him because he was black. I mean, that's a pretty radioactive accusation to make. So essentially this litigation is kind of put in the Rooney Rule and sham interviews on trial. So, you know, and he's not the only plaintiff. I know Steve Wilkes, the former Carolina coach is in there too, I believe. Then there's at least one other plaintiffs. So it may not even be up to Flores if he wants to settle. It does bring up an interesting dynamic because I don't see the NFL or at an NFL team,

maybe other than the Raiders, because they love to go against the grain. It's in the Davis blood. But I think the NFL doesn't like to have pending litigation hanging over its head, specifically trying to resolve an issue that if Flores does get back into the head coaching cycle would essentially be facing sort of the same issues or conflicts that he had brought up. So I'm inclined to think that they would want to settle this litigation before a team does offer him a head coaching job. Now, that doesn't mean to say that if the Giants or say the Raiders or if you want to spitball any other teams, they're going to be desperate for a defensive.

maybe and somebody that can come in and take over quickly, the owners may behooved to if one of their own is convinced that Brian Flores is my guy and we need to end this so we can sign him and, you know, make peace, as it were, I think they would be inclined to maybe nudge their lawyers to get this thing done. The other question is, you know, Brian Flores made a lot of really incendiary allegations and is sort of fighting for himself and other African-American coaches for lack of opportunity. How much does he want to stick with that and how much is he going to wait out to get maybe meaningful change, if not his own compensation, into the hiring practices? So there's a lot to work through just to get him in a place where a team may say yes. That can all happen

quickly, but this litigation has been going on for several years now. So it's not exactly in a position to react to the NFL hiring cycle, which is literally 48 hours after the last game, it seems like. So that, all of that being said, I think Flores is in a great position. He bet on himself by telling the Vikings, hey, just let me write out my contract. And we'll see where things are at in January. I mean, he may be looking to see where the Vikings quarterback situation comes up, because he knows what a stress defense can look like with not just subpar, but historically bad quarterback play. Maybe he bets on himself a couple more years here,

knowing he has an out every hiring cycle. Maybe he can leverage some more coin out of the Wills because he is arguably one of the best D.Cs in the league. So I envy where Brian Flores is right now, despite that kind of thorny litigation hanging out there. So the last that I saw from this was that the NFL wanted to go to arbitration, which, of course, they would. And the courts decided that the lawsuit can go forward. So this could be continually caught up for quite some time.

But, man, all it takes is one. All it takes is, I mean, think about when we talk about breaking rank, the Pittsburgh Steelers decided to bring in Brian Flores as an assistant when his name was mud in the NFL. NFL and then the Vikings sort of did the same thing as a DC, but I don't think they would have done it had he not already worked for the Steelers. Their head coaching position could be up in the air if they lose or even if they win and go to the playoffs and get immediately knocked out. Like there's just been a lot of chatter about Mike Tomlin potentially taking a step back or taking a different job or something like that. So do we think that someone is willing? And I threw out the Browns as a team that did that before. The Browns

decided to, you know, do the crazy thing with Deshaun Watson with his contract, which no one else was willing to give any quarterback that much money. And the owners have sort of tried to drag those quarterback contracts back down after Jimmy Haslam jacked them so far up. What is your, somebody asked earlier, like your percentage chance on this that, that he's back? Back with the Vikings. I think there's, I think there's a decent chance. I would say probably, I would say about 50%. I think that's a pretty good chance just because

I think the Vikings are in a position where they can't really let him go. It would be a huge blow, I think, to certainly to the coaching staff, but also to the players in this defense that you've built now over the last

few years that Brian Flores has been around. He's had a lot of input on the free agents that have been signed, the players that have been drafted on that side of the ball. I have to imagine if he does stay around, he's going to be wanting to look at adding another cornerback to the secondary that might be able to help sort of bolster that part of the unit. And I think the Vikings really feel like they need him.

Now, money talks, opportunity talks. And, you know, if the Cowboys, I know that's a team that you've talked about quite a bit over the last few weeks as it pertains to Brian Flores. if the Raiders want to go outside of the box, which to Merf's point, they kind of have a history of doing that. There's going to be suitors for Brian Flores because he's going to be a free agent.

So it's going to be a lot easier to attain his services. But I think if you're the Vikings, I think you have to really try as hard as you can to bring him back. And maybe that includes, you know, not only maybe boosting his salary, but maybe you add an associate head coach or assistant, you know, top assistant head coach to his title that might help, you know, boost things for him as well.

I know Kevin O'Connell, when he talked to you guys today, he kind of hinted at, hey, this guy's going to be a head coach again at some point. We're just going to try to keep him around as long as we can, as long as he wants to be here. So I think that that helps their chances, the fact that it seems as though they really want him back. and they've been negotiating with him, I'd put it at about 50%. But again, if somebody else comes in with a sweeter offer, a sweeter pot, I would not be surprised if he takes that on and moves on. The two different outcomes here for him leaving would feel very different.

If he gets a head coaching job, then, okay, like, congratulations. You earned it, man. Like, good job. And what else can you say? That, okay, is unfortunate that you're losing your defensive courts. but that's life in the NFL when you have a successful coach. If he just leaves for a different job that's a defensive coordinator, then you got to look around and go, hey, what the heck was that?

Was it money? Was it opportunity? Was it quarterback stability? And the fact that you know if you go run Dallas's defense that you're going to score 450 points because their offense knows what it's doing, would it be an indictment on how he feels about J.J. McCarthy? I mean, there was reporting from, Diana Rossini and some others that not everybody inside the building was comfortable with what

they decided to do. And I'm not saying that it was certainly Brian Flores. But if I was in his seat going into this year, I would have been like, are we sure? Because Sam Darnel was really nice for my defense last year when he was scoring and getting us ahead in games. And then I could just blitz the heck out of everyone. So you wonder about that. And if you can pick whatever you want. I think everyone understands the value of what a quarterback does. And this was the year that I went, okay, look, we'd like to debate quarterback wins and all that. But we saw the real trickle down of not having quarterback play. It restricted what the defense could do so much throughout the season. This is a funny YouTube name. It's not the real Lee Steckle, but that's the name. Let's see,

Dolphins wanted Sean Payton and Brady when they fired Flores, Flores then filed a lawsuit. The Raiders aren't hiring him. Do your homework. I don't see the connection really there with, like, Brady's working for the Raiders, knows Flores through the New England Patriots. They wanted to hire Peyton and bring in Tom Brady and fired Brian Flores because of it. But, I mean, I don't know that there's a connection there between those two exactly. Like I think what Tom Brady wants to do is win football games and he will do anything to do it.

And it's certainly not happening for the Las Vegas Raiders right now. Let's shift the conversation to J.J. McCarthy because you mentioned Kevin O'Connell's comments earlier today, Manny. He did leave the door open for J.J. McCarthy. I'm a little skeptical because hand fracture, it just doesn't scream to me plays next week. And there was a little extra time, though. so maybe that that helps since the last missing the last game. Murph, do you need to see J.J. McCarthy is part of the question. And then the other part is what can we, what can we take out of it for J.J.

McCarthy if he were to play against the Packers? I don't believe I need to see this game, this start to make my final analysis on J.J. McCarthy this year. It may leave you with a better taste going into the offseason, depending on how we perform. but I think we got a pretty good sample size. Well, it's a limited sample size, but what is limited is telling. So, no, I don't feel like this is critical. If he did play, though, I would like to know what it's like when he's playing, you know,

without a lot of comfort. If he's playing hurt or injured, as it were, if this game meant something, would he be in the lineup? Would the equation be different? Probably, but how effective would he be? I mean, he wasn't that effective for long stretches with a healthy, throwing hands so and it seemed obvious on the sack that he took the strip sack in new york his final snap of that game and maybe the season seemed like he had zero ability to grip the football now

that may change in 10 days yes but i just feel like i don't feel like we need to see him i think if he wants to push through and you know maybe build his uh credibility up a little bit in the locker room with the fan base toughing it out as it were although that sounds very you know kind of uh 18th century and maybe not that progressive, but there are some things that, you know, you're going to have to play when you're not feeling the best. You're going to have to play with broken bones or fractures. Maybe again, not to your throwing hand. I just, I'd like to see what he's doing, how he can manage himself in a game plan, when he's not 100%. And, but, you know, 50% of a quarterback or 50% of a struggling quarterback probably amounts to five

percent productivity. So I'm going to rely on them to make it worth the peak this week. I think they're going to just let this go to the end of the week. I don't think it harms him either way, whether he plays or not, at least his reputation or his sample size and what we can bring into the offseason. But I'd like to know what he's like uncomfortable in the pocket. I mean, physically uncomfortable as opposed to maybe mentally uncomfortable. I don't know what the value is in that. And again, it depends on how bad his hand really is, is, is, is, is hurt. Yeah, I'm not sure that you get a whole lot out of someone. If he can't throw the ball well, because he can't grip it and he has a bad game. And we're going to be like, oh, well, that was

worth it. Right. Or I don't, I don't, look, I'm not, I'm a scientist. I don't know if you can aggravate a fracture in your hand. But if you do, then you're talking about setting back and offseason potentially. That's something that I wouldn't really want. But I also think at the same time, like you can't put somebody in bubble wrap who's a quarterback. I mean, if the quarterback can play, then he should play.

That's where I'm at with it is if he can hold the ball well enough to throw it, and if it does have some pain involved, but you got to fight through it, okay. But if it makes it so he can't, like, throw the ball effectively, well, then we're just not really achieving a whole lot. You're looking at a defense, I guess, every play. and then what, just throwing it into the stands? I mean, throwing has already been tough enough for J.J. McCarthy.

I don't know that he needs to do it banged up. But let's say that he does play, Manny. What do you think, what would you make of any type of performance from him week 18? Well, I think when you factor in the Packers don't really have a lot to play for in this game, their spot in the playoffs is already solidified and secured. So winning or losing doesn't matter for them. So it makes all the sense in the world for them to rest all of their players. I can't even imagine we would see Malik Willis in this game for them.

And he is like their literal backup. And I can't imagine him even playing in the game. So there's going to be opportunities for, again, for McCarthy to go out and play well if he's going to be playing up against second and third stringers on the Packers defense. The problem is if his hand, if he can't grip a foot, football because his hand is hurting or you know KOC said today like there's still some swelling in his hand that's that's a problem and that's going to affect how he's going to play so if he's not if his number one asset his his right hand is not where it should be how are you

really even going to have any idea of what what he really looks like and I don't know about you guys I'm kind of at the point now where I am over all of the explanations and excuses for J.J. McCarthy over the course of this season. We need to see this kid play at 100% with the situation being perfect for him to see if he can actually really do this, you know, because it seems like whenever something goes wrong or whenever he doesn't play as well, there's always an explanation for it. It's always, you know, all this tackle was out or all the defense didn't give him enough enough of an opportunity or oh he got injured and there's been so much you know he hasn't been

able to have any continuity and all the COC needs a dummy down the system there's been all of these explanations for why he doesn't play well and I feel like if you throw him out there in this game and he throws three interceptions because he can't grip the football that's all we're going to talk about you know as to why he didn't play well I'm over that I just want to see this guy probably just shut it down for the rest for this last game going to the off season get healthy go through the OTAs go through all the offseason stuff that he needs to do to get himself right another full off season for him and then that way we can go into 2026 you know if you bring in somebody to compete with him he's going to have an opportunity to solidify this spot and

if he doesn't do it then the Vikings will have their answers so I want to present you guys I've got to pull it up here because it's an article I'm starting to work on. I want to present you guys with three different quarterback ideas. And there are three different levels of quarterback. There's like the starter level, the backup level, and then the true backup level. You'll know what I mean when I give you the ideas. And I want you guys to tell me which one of these you like the most. Okay.

So the case for a completely different starter for the minister, Vikings in 2026 is Kyler Murray. They are going to get rid of him. I don't think that anyone will trade for a quarterback that they know a team is moving on from. And my evidence would be Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold. They tried to trade him at the Combine last year. I heard that they were talking to other teams or hoping to have other teams approach

them about trading for Sam Darnold. And they were like, don't you have to let him go? Isn't that what you guys are doing over there? so everybody knew what they were doing and they just had to let Sam Darnold go and get the comp, right? I think the same thing is going to happen with Kyler Murray. I don't think anyone's trading assets for someone that they know the team is completely done with. So let's say that's the first level of this is get Kyler Murray. He's your starting quarterback for next year.

And you may not like him. And I agree with a lot of the criticisms of Kyler Murray, but he has won games in the NFL, right? He has been to the playoffs. He has put up big numbers. he threw a hundred and something passes to D'Andre Hopkins. We would not be sitting here next year if he played for the Vikings and saying, oh, let's get just to Jefferson to a thousand yards. Okay, I promise you he would get to a thousand yards with Kyler Murray.

So that's, that's idea number one. The next level idea is Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy Garoppolo is a veteran quarterback who's been with the Rams the last couple years, similar offense, and he's a backup, like these days. is not a starting quarterback in the NFL, but he has proven that under the right circumstances with San Francisco, he can win games. He would present to you a pretty good baseline for J.J. McCarthy, if he can't beat out Jimmy Garoppolo, then you know it's over. And if Jimmy has to start, then you'll probably win some games with him in KOC's offense. Uh, you know, he was with

the Raiders and that was horrendous, but, you know, he could still probably win some games. The next one down is a gardener minchew just a you know he won eight games that one time he's he's a real backup quarterback so you know exactly what gardner minchew is so murph your three levels are kailer murray jimmy garoppelow and gardener minchew which one of those options would you most prefer for the vikings 2026 i would in a vacuum i would prefer kailer murray because you mentioned that just the pure arm strength the production what he's been able to able to do with an elite level receiver, his ability to make things out of the pocket. All of that being said, yeah, that would be great.

Two things, though. He's got a ton of baggage coming with him. And I'm not sure what is the dynamic going to be between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy, who is number one? Who's beating out who? And that's a really dicey scenario to get into. In this scenario, Murray's your quarterback. In this scenario, like, there's not a competition.

Oh, there's no competition. Garapolo's competition, Minchu is, you see the game? Yeah, now I got the, you're replacing it. So it's not so much about Kyler exactly, but it's the Kyler quarterback. Like, of course there's going to be stuff that is wrong with whatever quarterback is available, who's the starter. But I just mean the three levels are completely replace him, have him compete with somebody, and then have him be the guy and he's got a regular backup. No, I think the middle option then with Garoppolo, which I kind of liked anyway before I went

down the Murray rabbit hole. I like the idea of having a steady presence here that can step in and if need be, give you four to six quality starts. Maybe that involves, you know, three to five, four wins. You know, Carson Wentz not as beat up. It's sort of this version of he may need to be in there. And I would trust Garapolo knowing his role, knowing the situation he's coming in, knowing where he's at in his career, you know, he's been around a lot of quality people and a lot of quality quarterbacks and a lot of quality offensive folks, notwithstanding maybe the Raiders. But I just feel like that's probably the best case scenario where you do have a safety valve, you have a safety net that you didn't have this year. And if this is going to be

a runback or a similar runback of a $300 million win now roster, you have to have somebody in place. in case disaster strikes. And you can worry about what it's going to do to McCarthy later, because as you said, if you can't beat out Jimmy Garapolo, then you didn't deserve to be a top 10 pick. And that's a whole other conversation. And, you know, deep six that has to happen from a roster standpoint, philosophical standpoint. Who knows, you know, O'Connell may not even be around in 2027 to kind of clean up that mess. So I think that's sort of the safest, maybe most efficient way.

But that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to be able to compete week to week with, you know, Caleb Williams and Jared Gough and Jordan Love or, you know, Willis is probably gone. But it seems like everybody in the division has their quarterback situation, not just figured out, but on a rocket ship or at least, you know, a proven place of comfort. If the Vikings are continuing to scramble around with that, you know, handing it to him and saying men's shoes your backup is, is, is, really just asking for a repeat of what happened this year, which is he's going to coast into the job and really not be pushed. So I'd love to see, you know, the fireworks with Murray would be interesting. And I, and I, that's going to be a hell of a pitch to make. And then again, you're going to have to say, thanks, JJ. We'll get back to you later. That's a thorny issue to deal with. But, you know, if we learned anything this year, I don't think he's entitled to

much anymore. Mani, where would you stand on that list? I would stand, so we're, if we're talking, we're talking about just like the tears, right? We're not talking about Jimmy Garapolo specifically, but somebody in that same. The reason I use the examples is to sort of like solidify in everyone's mind exactly what I mean. I mean, there's multiple, so I made a list of five, six, seven guys like this. So Jacoby Brissette, Kenny Pickett, you know, Tyrod Taylor. Those are your true backups. And the Garoppolo types include Flacco, Mariotta, Tyler, Tyler, Mitch,

Trubisky, Davis Mills, like these guys could actually be starters or have been starters in the league before and won games. Philip Rivers? Yeah. I did mention that if they need to sign Todd Bauman to get Jefferson to a thousand yards, then go do it. Buffalo, Minnesota, right? Is that where he's from?

So you get what I'm saying, like, we don't have to pick apart each one of those guys specifically, but the level. Yeah, I would probably go on that sort of that. mid-tier Garoppolo category for me just because I think at the very least at that point you bring in somebody like that, you bring them in to compete with J.J. McCarthy and you're telling J.J. McCarthy, hey, dude, we're giving you an opportunity here to grab this position by the horns and run with it. And if you can't do it, then we got to move on. I think the the Kyler Murray level is, I think if you bring in a Kyler Murray or somebody,

like that. I think you're basically already indicating you're done with J.J. McCarthy at that point. You can't, you can't go back to him after that. So I still because the McCarthy dynamic is kind of still up in the air, so to speak,

I like the idea of bringing in sort of that mid-tier Garapolo type of guy to compete with him so that you can really have an idea of what you have in J.J. McCarthy. And if he gets beat out in camp, then that means you have your answer and you're going to be looking at trying to get another quarterback for

2027. It does get dicey though because if that happens and McCarthy gets beat out, you're likely probably at best, you know, having another season like you had this year. And what does that mean now for Kevin O'Connell and the rest of the coaching staff and how are the Wilf's going to feel about that? Because I imagine you missed the playoffs. If you're going eight and nine or nine and eight for a second straight year, they're not going to be happy about that. So these last couple of weeks, McCarthy getting hurt again and then me watching the Bears and the 49ers play. I think I've been moved more to if you can get a real starting quarterback than do it, whether it's Kyler or, you know, Gino Smith or whoever it might be,

then you probably should. Because when you look at the final numbers and the final number of injuries. This is really reminiscent of a lot of quarterbacks who teams have moved on from, including someone like Anthony Richardson, but I mentioned like a Blaine Gabber, like that kind of level, uh, that this is not acceptable quarterback play. It's not anywhere close. And I get all the excuses. I know them. I've seen, I've, I've walked by, waited my way through those waters all year long of like, what's a, what's an explanation? What's an excuse for J.J. McCarthy? But eight and a half games and 34th out of 35 and expected points added. I brought up the stat earlier guys that if the Vikings had replacement level quarterback played, they'd have a plus 44, you know,

point differential, which would have them in the playoffs. I mean, replacement level. I'm talking about the 29th best quarterback in the, well, not 29th, but like 20th best quarterback in the league is replacement level. And you're so far away from that, that even though there was progress, it wasn't a light came on and the heavens opened up and went, oh, McCarthy, you are now, have you looked at the final statistics for the Cowboys defense, the quarterbacks have 109 quarterback rating this season against the Cowboys defense.

That's what the MVP of the league is going to have. And they're doing that every single week. So there's not much to me that says, you have to go forward with that. And the inability to stay healthy, And then I'm watching Caleb Williams play. And I'm like, okay, good luck beating that. How much progress you'd have to make.

It is massive. It is massive. It's not like, oh, he just gets to get a little better at this, that, and the other thing. It's, it's not a leap. It is a, did you ever watch, well, Murphy may have seen evil, conneval, but I grew up seeing Robbie Caneval when he jumped over the Grand Canyon. Like, that's the leap we're talking about to get to playing like what Caleb Williams was the other night, or what Jared Gough has done in his past or even Jordan Love.

And these are the guys that you have to beat. And if Brian Flores leaves, you're going to have to have a real offense to get to nine wins next year, not this, you know, dumbed down offense that you've survived against three horrible teams. So I, if this is the final picture with McCarthy, which it is because this is a preseason game. So this is the final picture. I just find that here's the way I started thinking about it. we have treated the franchise as if they are named the Minnesota McCarthy's over the last, like, two years.

And last year, even when Sam Darnal was doing awesome, they were still the Minnesota McCarthy's. That's all we heard about is wait until J.J. McCarthy gets here. And I am done calling them that, calling them that, treating them that way. Like the whole franchise just revolves around everything that he needs laid out for him, whether it's his footwork or whether it's whatever, you know, staying healthy, all that. sort of stuff. This is the Minnesota Vikings franchise who needs a quarterback who can get them into the postseason next year, period. And if that's not McCarthy, then it needs to be someone who's done it before. I wanted to ask you guys both about the Green Bay Packers. And I know that's, and I know it's harsh by the way. And I know it's not a fair world. It's not. But I was watching

Alex Smith talk to Brock Purdy yesterday. I don't know if you guys saw that on ESPN's countdown shows. Great conversation. Alex Smith said that he couldn't throw with anticipation for the first five years of his career. Because he was marveling at Brock Purdy's ability to do it. Pertie who played five or six years in college by the way. And he was like man, like what you can do with your anticipation,

I couldn't do it for years. And I'm like, that's my comp for JJ McCarthy. I think he could be a really good quarterback in the league. I don't know that he could do it next year and compete for these teams with these teams in the north. And that was Alex Smith's third head coach. By the time he figured it out,

it was Jim Harbaugh, because he had gone through Mike Nolan and Mike Singletary before that. Right, exactly. I got an ad read I want to give you. Then I want to talk about the Packers. But our friends at ZipRecruiter, let me tell you about them. As you guys know, Purple Insider is always growing and changing. So we're always looking to take steps forward in 2006.

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Go to this exclusive web address, zipRecruiter.com slash audio. ZipRecruiter, the smartest way to hire. Uh, Murph, are the Green Bay Packers not good enough to compete for a Super Bowl? This season, yeah, I'm going to say that. Yeah, I'm going to say that. Well, I mean, they've already lost Michael Parsons. Jordan Ludd was banged up. They don't seem to, I mean, they let, now granted, you know,

Derek Henry's a future Hall of Famer, but they, you know, they let a desperate team come into Lambo on prime time, and he rolled them up for 200 yards. I don't feel like they are productive, but they can't win, it seems like. You tell me where they rank. They always seem to be chewing up yards and making things difficult for other teams and yet not coming away with victories when they should. This is just kind of my cursory look at them.

So no, I don't feel that they are a, I mean, if you're only going to make the playoffs, depending on this week's outcome by a half game over the Vikings because of that tie in Dallas and October or September, whenever that was when you 4845 circus act or whatever that was, if that's your margin, then I, you know, I don't. see you in a, you know, stacked NFC, you know, cutting a blue streak through, you know, January right now. Who would have ever thought that the Vikings game in Lambo would have had these ramifications? Not me at the time.

I can tell you that. Yeah, Murph, they're just a different team without Micah Parsons. There's no way around it. They can do so many different things. They have had so many injuries, Devante Wyatt. They lose eight Hobbs the other day. They're down to when I. I was watching the game and I think they said, well, you know,

Bow Melton is down at corner. And I was like, the guy who used to be the receiver is now an injured corner. Like, they're at a lower level at corner than a guy who used to be a wide receiver, like just last year. So they are between them and the lions. I mean, their secondaries are just ravaged. Right. These guys are so banged up that it's never talked about with the Philadelphia Eagles last year that they were the healthiest team in the NFL when they went to the Super Bowl. Their offensive line, their entire defense, I think,

one player was on IR, which is insane and impossible. I think injuries have taken their toll. But, Manny, I also think there's something a little bigger to this. And I follow a lot of Packers, reporters and writers and, you know, commentators. And the whole thing of like, they've only made the playoffs since the, you know, with the seventh seed. And the seven seed didn't even used to exist. So they would have just been missing the playoffs previously. They are who exactly we thought they were going into this year.

year, which is, you know, they got Parsons, so that changed everything, but we thought, well, it's a pretty good team that could probably be a seven seed. And that's exactly where they've ended up. And is there a way out of that for them? It feels like, yeah, the injuries have piled up, but this is kind of who they are with Matt Lafleur and Jordan Love right now. Yeah, I remember you, you asked me about the Packers. I don't know if it was leading up to that, that game at Lambo or what, I remember we were talking about what they could be, you know, as far as, you know, can they make a run to the Super Bowl? How much damage can they do in the playoffs? And I kind of at that time, I remember kind of feeling like, yeah, they're a good team and they'll be there.

But how much can they actually do? How much can they set themselves up for? Can they get a good enough record to where they have home field advantage? They win the division. They have home field advantage at Lambo in January. But even we've seen even in the past when Aaron Rogers was the MVP of the league where they can be had at Lambeau Field. So even that isn't the kind of advantage that, you know, it once was many, many years ago, many decades ago. Yeah, they just feel like that team that, hey, they'll get into the playoffs.

And if the quarterback is really on a hot streak, maybe they can go on a run. But if he's not, they're going to end up on the road playing somebody and if the team that they're going up against is better than them, then they're just going to lose. They're just not. It just feels like they're really good, but they don't quite have enough. Maybe having a healthy Micah Parsons would be the difference there.

But obviously this year, they don't have him. So they're kind of stuck where they are. And, you know, if they have to play the Bears again, or if they have to go to Philadelphia, depending on how that number two seed shapes out, I don't think that they're going to have much of a chance. And, you know, last year they sort of in the off season showed all the signs of a desperate team. Now, getting Parsons is different.

If you get a chance to get Michael Parsons, then you trade what it takes because that guy is a top five player, non-quarterback in the NFL. But when they drafted Matthew Golden, who to me was an overrated prospect because of his 40 time. And I mean, I'm just, I'm not a draft. analyst, but I thought Luther Burden was the more complete player, and it's turned out to be that way. But they were sort of drafting someone to save the family, like having the kid to save the family. Like, we need a wide receiver to save this offense. So we're going to draft him.

And then the guy's not really ready and he's just okay. And he didn't do that. And their offenses that way. And every year with Jordan Love, if he's hitting deep shots, then, okay, wow, they're on a hot streak. He's playing like an MVP and then people talk about it. But it almost reminds. me of Kirk Tober a little bit where every year there would be this run where he would get hot

and it'd be great and then at the end you'd go but there were too many games and this is how I started thinking of Kirk and other quarterbacks is well how many games does this guy really bring it out of 17 and the answer is probably like 10 for Jordan Love which is very good and puts you in the conversation every year but it's not that like Josh Allen's like bringing it 14 out of 17 times and there's just a slight difference there between the good and the great. And if you don't have the great, you better have a great team and their team is just good. I wouldn't fire Lafleur or do anything stupid or crazy, but they are going to look like a stuck mid-ish type team.

This also puts the emphasis back on the Vikings having real quarterback play next year because the lions, they're going to try their best, but they've got some restrictions. The Packers, the path is pretty tricky there with Jordan Love, making as much as he's making. I'm seeing Packers people talking about, hey, trade Jordan love and keep Malik Willis. Like, that's how, that's how concerned. I know, that's crazy town, but that's how concerned

they are about the contract for him and what does that sound like? It sounds like 2019 Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings, a very good team that probably can't get over the hump. I want to ask you guys also before we get to, you know, looking

at some things from around the league and what we've got a very exciting week 18 coming up is you know people start to form their new year's resolutions right around now but in order to form a resolution what do you have to do first you have to look in the mirror you have to say what do I need I bought a rowing machine that's what I need I need to get more like I need to get more more jacked in 2026 that's what I need that's my resolution but I wouldn't think that unless I looked in the mirror and said yeah, it's not good enough.

What do you guys think the Vikings should most be looking in the mirror at when they make their front office and coaching resolutions for 2026, which I mean, honestly, could already start happening, but will definitely start happening the minute that week 18 is over. Those meetings will begin on their 2006 plans. So, Murph, what should they have learned by looking in the mirror that should guide them into next year? Never go into a season with an unproven quarterback on a $300 million

win now roster without a backup quarterback. And maybe acknowledge we're not the smartest guys in the room. And I think this was a humbling experience for Kevin O'Connell. And I think he's responded in a lot of ways pretty well. It may all be hot air because, you know, winning five games in a row when you've been eliminated from the playoffs,

doesn't, you know, carry a lot of weight in the grand scheme. But I would say, I think they, they, clearly they overestimated what McCarthy could do when handed the reins. But I think what really they underestimated was his ability to adapt to what, O'Connell getting him to adapt to what he wanted the offense to look like, as opposed to maybe adapting more to McCarthy. bringing him along the way. I think there was a sense of we'll just plug and play. We'll get him through his offseason. He'll be healthy. We're going to make up lost time for what we lost in 24. You know, Sam Darnold's great, but I threw, I scheme to open some of these receivers. I got Jefferson down the field. I got the past protection. I got, you know, I feel like O'Connell did his

hardest job of coaching when he realized his prodigy wasn't what he thought it was. And I think that really stung. And I think it really caused him to look inward. And when they were kind of wrapping McCarthy and bubble wrap and talking about all of his mechanics and what they can do to make it better, I think what O'Connell was doing in a lot of ways was also convincing himself that this is still something that can be worked with, that McCarthy is still a commodity that can be shaped and molded into something that I can work with. But he's not there yet, and I think O'Connell realized that, kind of like we did in real time, shockingly.

And why they didn't see this coming, maybe, you know, that's what they need to look in the mirror for, is how did we not anticipate, not the historically bad play, but how did we not anticipate McCarthy not being ready for the moment, both physically and skill set-wise. What do you think, Manning? Well, to kind of piggyback off of what Murph was just talking about, I think the thing that they should have learned is

don't base what you're going to do in your next off-season off of the last couple of games of the previous season because that's basically the reason why Sam Darnold is not here. They looked at week 18 against Detroit, last year wild card weekend against the los angeles rams in in in glendale in the playoffs and they judged everything that they were going to do with the quarterback position off of those two games and they completely ignored the 4300 yards the 35 touchdowns the 14 wins they kind of said all of that stuff didn't matter what we saw in detroit in week 18 and in glendale in the wildcard

round is going to decide what we do at quarterback don't make that same mistake again and i'm talking about rather it's great and amazing and incredible if j j mccarthy throws for 400 yards on sunday it doesn't mean a damn thing and you still have to go into this offseason with some questions and needing to see more out of this quarterback if you're going to stick with him now if you have decided already and you want to move on go to kailer murray route that's fine But if you're going to stick with this kid, don't just use 400 yards or whatever, a great performance against the Packers in a meaningless game in week 18 as a barometer for what you're going to do with the quarterback position next, next offseason.

I tend to say Kyler Murray a lot because I think he's the best. But maybe I should say Daniel Jones because people just don't like Kyler Murray. I mean, I think if, you know, Kyler is always a controversial play. or because he's hot and cold and he's short and he has to run around and so forth. And he has 400 yard games and he has 100 yard games. And he's probably one of the more frustrating quarterbacks of the last 10 years. Because if you see him at his best, you think how has anyone ever stopped this person ever? And if you see him at his worst, you never want to watch football again.

So like Daniel Jones is probably a better example of like a and the Kyler thing adds layers to it of like how's he going to fit and can he play with KOC. but like Daniel Jones would be the, you're bringing him in to start after what he did with the Indianapolis Colts. I think also, Manning, what you're referring to is not just week 18 if he plays. It's weeks before this of against Dallas, against Washington, against,

you'll be saying, you're saying don't use those games. Use the bigger sample. And the bigger sample is that's some of the worst quarterback play in the entire NFL this year. I would say that the rules apply to you, that there are, there are rules in the NFL, like nobody knows which quarterbacks are going to work out.

Kyle Shanahan's over there on the sideline, drawn up plays, and Brock Purdy is making them look beautiful the other night. And this guy was their seventh round draft pick. Let me tell you what, he's the number one overall pick in the NFL draft if anybody knew that that's what he was going to be. But instead, they traded first round draft picks to get a guy who stunk and has still never started for anybody. So if Kyle Shanahan's, if the rules apply to Kyle, then the rules apply to you.

And the other thing, too, is that the laws of efficiency, which is the money that you spend, if you go into free agency and we liked a lot of the moves in the off season. And we said that, hey, if McCarthy works out, these are all going to look a lot better. And that remains true. We'd be saying Javon Hargrave was a fine move if McCarthy was great this year, for sure. but in the light of day there's a lot of these moves that like will will fries at 17 mill versus several other free agents that cost a third of that it was not an efficient offseason and you can't just throw out efficiency because oh it's now it's time to win and let's just do

stupid stuff stuff that does not make sense on paper it and then you get burned by it and you go oh well you know i guess it was bad luck well it wasn't because you did suboptimal stuff and then it came back to bite you. So the rules apply to you. And as you go into free agency and as you go into these decisions in the future, well, you got to remember that if you keep doing suboptimal stuff, it will get you. And if you keep, you know, trading away every draft pick. If you sign players that ruin comp picks, it will come back to haunt you.

And it has for the Minnesota Vikings this year. Uh, fellas I asked the Fandul question the day earlier, which was, uh, the, The 49ers are currently plus 900 to win the Super Bowl on Fanduil. That is the fourth best odds in the NFL. The Jaguars are plus 1,300. These are the two teams that are the biggest surprises to me to be in the Super Bowl running. I am curious about your guys' biggest surprise teams of the 2025 National Football League season. Whoever's got the answer, just feel free to jump right in.

I got two on either end of the spectrum. I think the Jacksonville Jaguards, I don't think anybody expected them to be in the middle of this conversation. I know Trevor Lawrence had his moments a couple of years ago. Put a scare into the Chiefs and, you know, kind of we're making hay. And everybody thought that's the AFC team on the rise. Doug Peterson gets fired. Lawrence is banged up.

It's a mess. They're starting over. But that defense and the way they've been able to kind of fly onto the, the radar a bit and kind of annoy teams. And look, I'm not a huge fan of Jacksonville. I visited there last year. It's definitely a small market. Yeah. It's definitely the smallest market in the NFL. Yeah. And for coach going to kind of like not be or to be offended by that and actually use that as motivation, I kind of find that I thought that was kind of cool. There's a first year coach that just doesn't care. He doesn't care about, you know, anybody else's reputation. He doesn't care about

kind of towing the line, as it were. I just like the idea that they're coming in. And with the AFC being sort of so wide open, you know, with the Chiefs out and the Ravens, again, my other surprise team that they're even clawing here to get in was a real surprise. We thought, you know, with Omar Jackson, that they would be an AFC contender. Somehow Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. And we get a winner to take all games Sunday, which is great. But those are my two surprises that Baltimore is scrambling to get in,

and Jacksonville seems prime to be the big upset driver this postseason. Or this postseason. What do you got, Manning? I'm going to go with my biggest surprise. I'm going to go with New England. Just because I thought they would be better, you know, than what they were last year. They were really bad last year.

And I think we're seeing that coaching had a lot to do that. I hate to say that about a former Tennessee vault. Gerard Mayo just didn't work out for him. He wasn't ready. He wasn't ready for the job. And Mike Rable for sure, though, was ready for this job because this guy does this. And he's done this before. He's did a great job in Tennessee and things kind of fizzled out there. It was time for him to kind of move on, I think. And you can see where that organization is right now. There was a good choice by him to be able to get out of there. But I did not expect

for them to be this good. And Drake made, the leap that he has taken to go from being, you know, a promising rookie who showed some signs last year to an MVP candidate, a leading MVP candidate the next year is really, really remarkable. I, you know, I know people are going to knock the schedule and all they plan to play in the last place schedule, but I don't think they should have to apologize for that. their point differential is 142. They're 13 and 3.

They've won that division now. They're set up to be really good, I think, for a long time now, too, because like I said before, Mike Brable can coach. He's done a great job. So New England's kind of the number one surprise for me just because I didn't think that they would be this could. I thought maybe like 10 wins and sneaking into the playoffs might be kind of the peak for them, but they've blown that out of the water.

The other surprise, I'll say is Chicago. I thought Chicago would be, again, another team. I thought they'd be better. But I didn't think that they would, I think they would win this division. I thought it was going to be Detroit or Green Bay. For sure. And maybe the Vikings, if things went right for them. But the Bears have won that division.

And now if Caleb Williams keeps playing like this, they're not going to go away, man. They're going to be around for a long, long time. And that's going to be frustrating for Vikings fans. I think the same thing about Chicago and New England. I mean, I saw New England in the joint practices. And I remember they started out a little bit rocky this season. And I texted my friend Chad. Yeah, that's right.

Yeah, that's right. I texted Chad Graff, who covers the Patriots for the athletic and used to be here. And I texted him and I was like, are they going to do like a Jet Sam Darnold where the team just is so inept and the guy's actually good and then five years for now. And that's how it felt in week two or three. and now they've got a chance to go chase a Super Bowl. And after Chicago blew it to the Vikings and then got run out of the building in Detroit, who wasn't thinking, okay, it's just more of the same from the Chicago Bears. And then a lot of things have had to go right for them to be in this position.

But recently, if you're going toe to toe to toe with the Packers, you're going toe to toe with the San Francisco 49ers in a game like that. And the weapons they have, I'll say also that, you know, Colston Loveland, when he got to. drafted by the Bears on draft night and I will still stick with this that drafting tight ends to me that high is a little suss just because the gap between them from tight end to tight end isn't isn't that big but he's been a revelation for them burden's been great for them their offensive line everything they did there just hit on the offensive line and if they keep that unit together

ben Johnson knows what the heck to do with it and Caleb just keeps getting better and better Caleb Williams, we talk about McCarthy and the Josh Allen arc. Caleb Williams has the Josh Allen arc and he has the Josh Allen talent, which I don't think J.J. McCarthy has. So that should be really scary to everybody in the National Football League that if he gets a little more accurate than my goodness. So yeah, I agree with some of those picks. Last thing is the next weekend, let me see what the odds are here. The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are one of and a half point favorites on Fanduil for the NFC.

And I mean, Sam Darnold, how many games? So you have to go 17 and O to get the, you know, the number one seed locked in. What incredible drama this is. Two great franchises, two great teams. And I cannot wait for this battle. The best offense, the best defense. And we all know what's going to happen with Sam Darnold is that this will turn

into another narrative game. It's really bizarre to me, guys, that Justin Herbert can score 16 points in a loss and be widely celebrated. But Sam Darnold, you know, it's always the next game that is proof that he is this or he is that. I love this game for the drama. I love it for Sam that he's in this game and for the Seahawks organization that other teams didn't make offers to Sam Darnold. They did. And he's put them in this position. The Seahawks have scored the most points in franchise history.

with him at the helm, which is, you know, another proof of him being a top quarterback. But I'm going to, I'm going to try guys to not let the world ruin this for how cool this is. Seahawks and 49ers, remember that rivalry, remember like Richard Sherman and Michael Crabtree and Harbaugh and Carol going at it and now they're back doing this. I just couldn't, these coaches are great. They are two awesome, awesome coach.

is. And I just cannot wait for this football game. What do you think happens, Murph, Seahawks and 49ers? The game, I don't know, this is the game of the year for me, for sure. I'm going to give the 49ers an edge just because I feel like they've got a little bit more of the hard edge experience. I like the idea that they're at home. I like the idea that they're set up to basically run the table and go to the Super Bowl at home. And wouldn't that be something to see? Yeah. But I don't want what happens to define Sam Darnel. The guys want, 27 games in the last two seasons. 27. Right. And I know it's easy to say, well, he hasn't won the ones that mattered.

Well, yeah, but I'm telling you right now, how does that eight and a half game, J.J. McCarthy experiment feel. Darnold is not going to lose this game. I think San Francisco will win it. But I think Donald has established himself as a big arm, big, quarterback. Now, it's not like the Seahawks aren't going to the playoffs. Yeah. So it's not like he's not going to have a chance to redeem himself. I mean, we said that going into Glendale. I don't feel like this game Sunday should define Sam Darnold. Unfortunately, it will. Because whether he wins or loses, he's still a 27 win quarterback the last two seasons with the statistics to back it up. And there's not a single person I've heard say a negative word about Darnold, both in Minnesota,

both in Seattle, in San Francisco, in Carolina, in New York, despite everything he's gone through. So if you're really hoping to tear down Sam Darnold to make yourself feel better for an 8-9-6-9-8 season, that says a little bit more about you than it does Sam Darnold. Well, also think of it this way, too. So let's put aside last year with Sam Darnold, those two games, Week 18 and the playoff game. those are two enormous games for the Vikings franchise after Case Keenham through the Minneapolis

Miracle how many games is this franchise played in with the stakes and the energy of week 18 last year and then into the playoffs and what Seattle's got this year and them going into the playoffs I can think of going to San Francisco because remember they were a six seed going against New Orleans we all thought they were going to be crushed in 2019 they pull off the win. But there was not a lot of excitement about that playoff game going into it. And we all kind of thought Mike Zimmer was going to get fired after they lost. So San Francisco, so they get the big win. They go to San Francisco. They get killed. Since then, what? Was anybody jacked about the Giants game in the playoffs after

they had a negative point differential? I mean, since 2017, there's one game I could think of outside of what's in. And now two years in a row, this same quarterback is playing in games of that magnitude. I think that certainly says a lot about him. And Brock Purdy is damn good and has been to a Super Bowl before too. So I don't know. Like somebody's got to lose this game, which always makes me sad. Yeah, it's, it's, well, just to kind of piggyback off of what you talked about with the Seattle offense and the records and stuff with Sam Donald, they score 30 points in this next game. That will get them to 500 on the season. Wow. They're sitting at 470 points right now. And we know that their defense is great.

The point differential is 181. So, you know, that's a combination of great offense, great defense. And I think what Darnold has done, you know, the other part of this that cannot be overstated. And again, this is doesn't look too kindly on the Vikings when I say this. But Sam Donald's in the prime of his career. This is the best football. I mean, obviously it's the best football he's ever played in his life. but he's at that age where quarterbacks play their best football.

He's in his late 20s. He's playing great. The team loves him. They love him out there in Seattle. And if they get, they win this game in Santa Clara and they get a home field advantage and they get to the NFC championship game. And, you know,

because you know what's going to happen there. They get to the NFC championship game and Donald's going to throw an interception and everybody's going to be like, see, see, see. but it'll be the NFC championship game and it'll be Sam Darnold in that NFC championship game that holds a lot of weight and what he's done his last two years is it should be applauded because usually when guys have a breakout season it's usually just for that one season if it's a guy that people want to write off um it's usually just last for that one

season and then we never hear from him again this guy's done it two years in a row now um he deserves his flowers i'm going to be thinking about Dan Campbell and what he said after that loss forever, because I feel like this is the year for Seattle. Like, if it doesn't happen, then it's like, hey, that was probably your shot. Because, I mean, they're an extremely strong and healthy team. The concern I have over Darnold specifically in his own performance is that recently his level of play has started to even off a little bit or, and I think a lot of it is, one,

you know, teams figure out your tendencies over the year. and I don't know if Clint Kubiak was the best tendency breaker when he was the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator and it seems like they figured some stuff out there. Even Carolina was, you know, changing the defensive look after the snap and got some, you know, bad plays from Darnold in that game. And he didn't have a great game against the Carolina Panthers. And they came home with that win anyway. And the same kind of thing went for the Rams game.

His overall numbers have started to slip a little. and I think their offensive line just is not good enough to go all the way through the playoffs. They need the home field advantage. They need every edge they can get. I think if they lose this game, they don't go that far in the playoffs just based on their defense and one wide receiver and a poor offensive line and two mediocre running backs that don't set, you know, the world on fire. I'm just not sure it's quite enough to be a Super Bowl champion if they don't get the homefield

advantage. But it's going to be fascinating, man, that San Francisco defense is so banged up that They give up a lot of points and I will take Kyle Shanahan in a game like this and I'll take Brock Purdy in a game like this over Darnold and over a less experienced coach. But man, heavyweight and all of us are jealous because I like to cover games like this and I will be watching it with everybody else. So Brian Murphy, Manny Hill, we will do one more roundtable next week. And I feel like we've been in offseason mode for a couple of weeks.

weeks but you know maybe we'll do a mock draft maybe we'll get everybody's offseason plans uh off season you know we'll do some off season predictions of what's going to happen next week and we'll break down whatever happens if it's j j mccarthy we'll talk about his performance if it's brett rippin then we'll talk about not brett rippin well do you think after 18 weeks we could finally have a real serious discussion about j jay mccarthy yeah it's a good idea the minnesota to McCarthy's analysis. He's flown under the radar for two years and now. It's about time we deal with him. If it's Brett Rippin, can we just talk about how awesome his uncle played in the Super Bowl when it was here? Yeah. Yeah. No, actually, we can't because that's a bad childhood memory.

Thanks, Mandy, for bringing it up. It was at the Metrodome. It was at the, it was at the Metrodome and the Buffalo Bills forgot where their helmets were for some players. This one guy. I forgot about that. But I got to say, I watched that Super Bowl back not too long ago, because like many other folks, I'm sure, when NFL Network plays those Super Bowl recaps, I will get inspired to go watch some of the full games. And I was watching that back. And the Washington squad was insane. It might be the best group of football players ever assembled top to bottom, like them, the 94-49ers, like the 90, whatever, Dolf, or the, uh, the 72 dolphins, the 90, whatever, cowboys, like, it's up there for rosters. I mean, the bills had no chance.

They were just so much, so much better. They ran into these, these behemoth teams. But anyway, thanks for tossing that out there. Mani. Anyway, we will see you guys next week one way or the other. Actually, just Murph now after that. But go watch Kirk play some football and we'll talk to you guys later. Football.

Football. Football.